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Chips With Everything
IET Presidential Address Savoy Place, 5 Oct 06 Chips With Everything Chips With Everything Sir Robin Saxby Emeritus Chairman ARM Holdings plc Visiting Professor University of Liverpool [email protected] Slides available at www.theiet.org A personal perspective for discussion 1 Flow IET History The Chip Industry ARM case study Challenges & lessons from above Technology drivers Convergence of hardware and software + technology / design / cost challenges 2020 Vision Technical & commercial leadership, globalisation, wealth creation, personal satisfaction, influence from UK foundation People stories as exemplars for younger engineers biotech / microtech convergence era IET Vision / Goals / Challenges References Conclusions 2 IET History 1818 Civil Engineers were first aspiring British students saw Civil Engineering as utopia for fun & wealth creation - waterfront in Liverpool, Boston and Shanghai 1847 Mechanicals - Birmingham base 1871 Society of Telegraph Engineers Electricity / Power, Radio, Electronics, Computing, Bio, Nano … Offer B Eng or B Sc equivalent before universities Oxbridge slow to adopt engineering Professionalism and professional development Strong publishing revenue from 60’s Experts influencing government, informing the public Personalities, difference of opinion normal Mergers - latest one IIE 3 Microelectronics SEMATECH SEA Cirrus Logic 4 Chip Industry Foundations Technology Development Transistor Dec 1947-Bell Labs IC 1958 –TI Standard MOS 1967 – Fairchild 70s - Waves of New Products Microprocessors Digital Signal Processors DRAM EPROM 5 Consequences of Moore’s Law 1B Tr t 1M odu r P “ a p” G ity v i t c 1 y 100p 8,500 y p 0 ,80 Transistor/PM (K) Transistors/Chip (M) r Mt 0 10 py Gap” n o i t a c “Verifi ITRS’99 6 Semiconductor Market Specialization Several waves of semiconductor technology Now in the middle of CMOS CMOS has enabled MSI → LSI → VLSI → SOC Technical progress brings a basis for industry evolution Miniaturization, reductions in costs, increases in complexity Vertical integration gives way to horizontal specialization Vertical Suppliers ASIC Vendors Fabless Semis System Manufacturer Design & Distribution IP Driven Design Design Fully Vertically Integrated IP ASIC Vendor 1970’s EDA 1980’s EDA Manufacturing Manufacturing Fab Equipment 1990’s Today 7 System Chip Methodology The design task is so large that it is not possible to design the whole chip oneself … Components, from independent suppliers are integrated to produce the so-called System-On-Chip. The ARM RISC Processor has become a Keystone SoC Component; Fundamental to interfacing the Hardware and Software aspects of this Digital World 1998 Mobile-Phone Processor. 80mm2, 0.6μm AMBA ARM7TDMI OAK DSP 8 PC approach - Scaling for Performance 80s & 90s industry growth and scaling in computing power 1982 - Intel 80286 1985 - Intel 80386 1989 - Intel 80386 134 thousand transistors 275 thousand transistors 1.2 million transistors 12MHz; 68.7 mm2 33MHz; 104 mm2 50MHz; 163 mm2 1993 - Intel Pentium 1997 - Intel PentiumII 1999 - Intel PentiumIII 2000 - Intel Pentium4 3.1 million transistors 7.5 million transistors 28 million transistors 42 million transistors 66MHz; 264 mm2 300MHz; 209 mm2 733MHz; 140 mm2 1.5GHz; 224 mm2 9 Scaling for Performance Consequence 80s & 90s industry growth and scaling in computing power 1982 - Intel 80286 134 thousand transistors 12MHz; 68.7 mm2 Performance at expense of power 1985 80386 and- Intel thermal 275 thousand transistors challenges 33MHz ; 104 mm2 Move to multiprocessor 1989 - Intel 80386 1.2 million transistors 50MHz; 163 mm2 1993 - Intel Pentium 1997 - Intel PentiumII 1999 - Intel PentiumIII 2000 - Intel Pentium4 3.1 million transistors 7.5 million transistors 28 million transistors 42 million transistors 66MHz; 264 mm2 300MHz; 209 mm2 733MHz; 140 mm2 1.5GHz; 224 mm2 10 Financial Benefit of Scaling The Virtuous Circle DEMAND INVESTMENT Cost of 1MHz Cost of 1 megabit storage Cost of sending 1 trillion bits COST REDUCTION 1970 1980 $7,600.82 $103.40 $5,256.90 $614.40 $150,000.00 $129,166.67 1990 $25.47 $7.85 $90.42 2002 $0.17 $0.33 $0.12 Source: “The New Paradigm” Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas 1999 Report and 2002 Actuals 11 ARM From Humble Beginnings £1.5M cash from Apple £250K cash from VLSI £1.5M of IP & 12 engineers from Acorn Proof of concept Acorn Archimedes No patents, no independent customers, product not ready for mass market A barn, some energy, belief, experience 1 Partner VLSI Technology 1 OS Acorn RISCOS No tools “We’re going to be the global standard” 12 Where are the Founders Now? 1990 2006 Robin Saxby Jamie Urquhart Mike Muller Tudor Brown Lee Smith John Biggs Harry Oldham Dave Howard - Founding CEO - President IET - Head VLSI design - Venture Capital Partner / NED - Leading systems architect - ARM CTO & Director - Lead Video & Memory Designer - ARM COO & Director - Lead Software Tools - ARM Fellow - VLSI Designer - ARM EDA R & D - Senior VLSI Designer - ARM Fellow VLSI Design Mgr - VLSI Designer - ARM Consultant Engineer VLSI Design Pete Harrod - Floating point guru - ARM Group Leader Tech & People IET Branch Chair Harry Meekings - C Compiler Guru - Architecture Guru Al Thomas Andy Merritt - Software Tools Engineer - Algorithm Designer David Seal - Retired - Died - Voluntary worker - ARM Senior Algorithm Designer 13 Volume drives success: 4.5Bn Units by 2010 69 partners shipping (out of 184) at end H2 06 4.5Bn / year 100’sM Q 206 Q 405 Q 205 Q 404 Q 204 Q 403 Q 203 Q 402 Q 202 Q 401 Q 201 Q 400 Q 200 600 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Q 499 2Bn / year 2010 2006 14 Scaling the ARM way mm2 100 ARM1: 3um; 50 mm2; 120mW at 6MHz ARM6: 1.2um; 15MHz ARM7DM: 0.8um; 25MHz 10 ARM7TDMI ®: 0.6um; 33MHz 1 0.1 800 x power efficiency 500 x area efficiency 0.35um; 47MHz 0.25um; 63MHz 180nm; 98MHz 130nm; 125MHz 90nm; 219MHz ARM7TDMI®: 65nm; 0.1 mm2; ~9mW at 350MHz 0 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 15 But ARM has done performance too The 80s and 90s: 1985 – ARM1 1988 – ARM3 1994 – ARM710 1999 – ARM920T 50mm2; 12MHz; 1.2um 33MHz; 0.6um 140MHz; 0.25um 4MHz; 3um The new millennium: 600x Performance 4.5mm2 core 2001 – ARM926EJ-S 2004 – ARM1176JZ-S 2005 – ARM MPCore (2 way) 2006 – ARM Cortex A8 200MHz; 180nm 400MHz; 130nm 620MHz; 90nm 1GHz; 65nm 200 DMIPS 480 DMIPS 1,488 DMIPS 2,000 DMIPS 16 Community is as important as technology ARM Developers Conf., Santa Clara 2200+ attendees 90 exhibitors & sponsors 130+ papers & panel sessions Success through broadest Partner Support! 17 Increasing Strategic Value Connected Community Development Tools Software IP Processors memory memory System Level IP: Data Engines SoC SoC Fabric 3D graphics Physical IP 18 ARM Timeline Founded Nov 1990 Profitable and cash generative since 93 Public April 98 NASDAQ and LSE Many engineers now financially secure Market cap £1.5B approx 1500 people across the globe 100,000+ engineers working on ARM technology 25% sales on R & D Global Semiconductor IP leader by 2.5X nearest competitor Tiger best product award Shareholder and Investor Awards Eastern England “Employee of the year” 19 Methodology Strategy – 5 year horizon USA, Europe, Japan, Other Asia in parallel – Then China / India As the company matures better systems and methods to manage complexity whilst keeping pace Operational Plan – 1 year horizon Tactical Plan – 2-3 year horizon Monthly measurement / reporting Mean & lean - Tight cost control Get leads globally – Hire Presidents / Sales leaders globally – Then global design centres Identify value points for long-term growth Add high quality people to founding team Develop people potential – Long term planning – Fast track, technical ladder 20 Biggest ARM Challenges Get out, get paid & get a credit line “Joint ventures don’t work” Time to close first deals-potential cash crunch Conflicts of interest with founding companies Time and effort to close first deals Partnership management Shareholder fall-out prior to IPO Continually evolving employee roles Managing, internal, external, customer expectations Shareholder expectation vs “Creative Destruction” Acquisition Global dynamic of Governance standards Share price volatility 21 University Business Collaboration Quality and relevance of graduates Technical competence versus business capability Business know-how versus entrepreneurial flair Buying it in versus breeding your own Important aspect is “cultural fit” Beware the frustrated academic aspiring business-man Be realistic about “time to money” Business is more customer pull than technology push University, Business & Government worlds exist in parallel universes on different time-lines “IET Axis – Government / Academia / Industry – Professionalism” 22 Learning points Strong competent teams can deliver amazing results The team is only as good as its weakest link – consultants help Vision, passion and hard work are key Be realistic / pragmatic / honest re competition / listen Different deliverables to different time – lines – plan, plan – adjust, iterate Anticipate and satisfy explicit needs of real customers – Develop the market as well as the technology Good salesmanship and communication are key skills needed Quality, professionalism, humour and complete 23 Technology driver - Content delivery Fastest concert recording to digital download release Time between recording of a live concert performance and its release for digital download sale: 44 minutes and 39 seconds ‘Sgt Pepper's Lonely Hearts Club Band’ by Sir Paul McCartney and U2 Universal Music Group International for Live 8 (July 2, 2005) 24 Technology driver - Miniaturisation Digitisation allows increased miniaturisation, performance and convenience The best of analogue… … has become smaller and better 25 Technology driver - More software High-performance devices run large amounts of complex software 128 All needs to be developed and integrated into final device 26 Technology driver - Embedded intelligence 1913 Model T Ford No electronics 2006 Chrysler announce 40% of models will offer iPod integration Circa 1980 BMW 733i Introduction of ABS 2015 - Pervasive but hidden electronics 2005 BMW 7 Series iDrive Control system 27 Technology driver - Changing lifestyles Early Multi Format Voice Ringtones Photos Music TV Uni Format Analogue Broadcast delivery Scattergun advertising All digital Content downloaded Time shift broadcast Unlimited storage Delivery choices Targeted advertising In shop retail purchase Media plays on any device 1880 1900 True Multi Format 1926 1990 2000 2010 28 Future Outlook - Healthcare & fitness Largest opportunity to add value Healthcare systems under extreme stress despite $3T global spend Improvements needed: In efficiency, reliability, privacy, quality of life Product opportunities: Disease prevention, monitoring, therapy, services, IT Emergence and growth of telemedicine Removes distance between provider and patient Need for connectivity increases hardware and software integration challenges 29 2020: On the body Active Clothing Mini Logger Temp monitor Chilli Heated Clothing Active Joint Brace wins MIT $50K Cochlear Ear Replacement Eye 30 2020: Products for the Infirmed Biometrics - time to visit the doctor again Controls Parkinson’s Disease Implanted automatic drug delivery Insulin Delivery Heart monitoring Medtronic Replacement Pancreas 3D freescan image 31 2020: Products for Kids Active clothing / skin? that changes colour / tone for mood? “In his latest column for Business 2.0, "Wearable Tech," Rafe Needleman tells us that clothes that can change colors electronically are soon coming to our closets.” Allow online searching by thought Holographic projection conference calling with friends DNA Screen On offer in a Cambridge shop 32 2020: Products for Kids Five-sense Virtual Reality gaming and experiences 33 Ultimate Product? Heated Seat 2 Heated Water Bidet Streams Electronic Bidet The World’s Best Toilet Seat! Home medical advisor, Speech, patient history, Take pills with patient monitoring Electronically Temperature Controlled Electronic Water Pressure Control Automatic Shut-off Keizo Mura Skiing on his 100th Birthday Salt Lake City 34 Conclusion Successful tech industry is built on solid foundations and has exciting times ahead Always new challenges to be overcome Old methods do not scale Accelerated move to global open standards, collaboration & partnership Improving system design methods to enable management of increased complexity Software becomes an ever more critical part of the solution Some new winners Only the innovative survive 35 An IET Vision An Institution for the 21st Century Practise professionalism everywhere Knowledge Networks – Web & real – Collaboration & partnership IET.tv, Flipside, INSPEC and the web as resources for great stuff Inform the public – Help raise the SET profile Inspire and encourage the young to take up SET careers Enable member career development and professionalism Facilities – Services, web, meeting, coffee, real networking Benevolent Fund Greater global relevance Partnership for global reach and relevance Vision in detail for local delivery Use technology for innovative delivery & communication to world audience 36 Development of unified vision Strategy, BoT, Council, Presidential teamwork and succession Partnership - other Institutions, governments, industry, academia Quality plan Lead by example, development of strategy, team-work calendar Greater branch activity with focused appeal and targeting - includes visits, technician development Web & IET.tv Development Underpinned by Publishing and Events - includes long term vision of information sourcing 37 References A History of The institution of Electrical Engineers 1871-1981 – WJ Reader The Victorian Internet & The Mechanical Turk – Tom Standage Microsoft Secrets –Michael A Cusumano & Richard W Selby Total Global Strategy – George S Yip The Age of Spiritual Machines – Ray Kurzweil The Private Life of The Brain – Susan Greenfield Competing For The Future – Gary Hamel & CK Prahalad Creative Destruction – Richard Foster & Sarah Kaplan The World Is Flat – Thomas L Friedman ITRS Roadmap for Semiconductors 38 Q&A www.theiet.org 39
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