Will and Skill - Texas Counseling Association

Will and Skill: Aligning Educational Initiatives with the Texas Labor Market
Labor Market & Career Information (LMCI)
Texas Workforce Commission
[email protected]
(512) 936-3105
A Goldilocks Economy….
Not too Hot…
Not too Cold…
Texas Themes of the day
1. Texas economy is stronger than the U.S. Texas is subject to the same global macroeconomic forces as other parts of the U.S. 2. Demographic shifts are changing the face of the Texas labor market where we live, what we look like
3. Nobody lives in Texas: Distinct regional differences exist in job opportunities by industry & occupation demand 4. Recent Texas job growth has been largely fueled by: Population growth, the Oil & gas cluster and Professional & Business Services
5. Occupational demand is more bifurcated. Employers continue to emphasize skill sets and experience over job titles and degrees
6. Information technology is not an occupation, industry or major. It is a ubiquitous skill set that permeates all jobs.
7. The current skill alignment between labor market demand and
education outputs is less than perfect
Policy Action Requires Problem Understanding: What is driving the slow labor market recovery? Three Arguments
• Cyclicality ‐ Insufficient aggregate demand. Just not enough GDP to stimulate job growth to match population growth. Global GDP leakages
• Stagnation – American dynamism is alive but declining. Insufficient powerful ideas to drive robust economic growth. Global competition erodes U.S. wage premiums
• End of Work – Fewer workers needed to produce more goods & services. Technological displacement & obsolescence. Affects primary industries & ancillary sectors. Skills matter while some lose the race against the machine. Creates more pronounced winners and losers.
Insufficient Aggregate Demand: New Hires
New Hires
Separations
Changing Nature of Separations:
Layoffs down, Quits up
Quits
Layoffs
Texas Labor Market:
1. Where do we live?
2. Who we are?
2. What’s the job market like? 4. Where is the job growth? 5. What are future job prospects?
6. Does education matter?
7. Does what you study matter?
Change of the Total Population by County, 2000 to 2010
-3,200 - 0
1 - 10,000
10,001 - 50,000
79 counties lost
population over
the decade
50,001 - 100,000
100,001 - 700,000
Source: Texas State Data Center
8
Top 15 Largest Growth Cities July 1, 2011 to July 1, 2012
Rank
Area Name
1
New York city
2
Houston city
3
Los Angeles city
4
San Antonio city
5
Austin city
6
Phoenix city
7
Dallas city
8
Charlotte city
9
San Diego city
10 Fort Worth city
11 Denver city
12 Washington city
13 San Jose city
14 Seattle city
15 Nashville State Name
New York
Texas
California
Texas
Texas
Arizona
Texas
North Carolina
California
Texas
Colorado
D. C. California
Washington
Tennessee
Increase 2012 Population
67,058
8,336,697
34,625
2,160,821
34,483
3,857,799
25,400
1,382,951
25,395
842,592
24,536
1,488,750
23,341
1,241,162
18,989
775,202
18,074
1,338,348
16,328
777,992
14,980
634,265
13,303
632,323
12,751
982,765
12,638
634,535
12,323
624,496
Top 20 Fastest Growing Texas Counties 2010‐12
County/City
Harris County (Houston)
ABS CHG 145,783
County/City
ABS CHG
Montgomery Co. (Woodlands) 25,756
Dallas County (Dallas)
80,029
El Paso County (El Paso)
23,892
Travis County (Austin)
65,365
Hays County (San Marcos)
10,701
Tarrant County (Ft. Worth)
63,809
Brazoria County (Pearland)
10,271
Bexar County (San Antonio)
62,729
Bell County (Killeen)
10,158
Collin County (Plano)
46,137
Midland County (Midland)
9,703
Denton County (Denton)
40,343
Cameron County (Brownsville)
7,901
Fort Bend Co. (Sugarland)
36,296
Webb County (Laredo)
7,888
Williamson Co. (Round Rock)
29,510
Galveston County (Galveston)
7,861
Hidalgo County (McAllen)
27,349
Guadalupe County (Seguin)
7,463
Texas MSA April 2014 Urates (actual)
MSA
Midland
Odessa
Amarillo
Lubbock
College Station‐Bryan
San Angelo
Abilene
Victoria
Austin‐Round Rock
Longview
Wichita Falls
San Antonio
Waco
Corpus Christi
2014
2.3
2.9
3.3
3.5
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.8
3.8
4.3
4.4
4.4
4.4
4.6
MSA
Houston‐Sugar Land
Sherman‐Denison
D/FW‐Arlington CSA
Texas
Tyler
Laredo
Killeen‐Temple
Texarkana
United States
El Paso
Beaumont‐Pt Arthur
Brville‐Harlingen
McAllen‐Edinburg
2014
4.6
4.6
4.7
4.7
4.8
5.2
5.5
5.7
5.9
6.7
7.3
8.1
8.6
Texas Industry Growth April 2013‐14 YOY (SA)
NAICS Industry
Total Nonagricultural
Total Private
Goods Producing
Service Providing
Trade, Transport & Utilities
Prof. & Business Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Education & Health Services
Construction
Government
Mining and Logging Financial Activities
Manufacturing
Other Services
Information
April 2014
11,477,100
9,649,400
1,825,600
9,651,500
2,308,600
1,513,700
1,180,200
1,518,600
634,100
1,827,700
309,900
695,300
881,600
402,800
204,600
April 2013
11,129,100
PER CHG
348,000
3.1
ABS CHG
9,325,200 324,200
1,768,800 56,800
9,360,300 291,200
2,228,900 79,700
1,448,500 65,200
1,130,500 49,700
1,477,700 40,900
610,200 23,900
1,803,900 23,800
288,200 21,700
678,500 16,800
870,400 11,200
392,700 10,100
199,600
5,000
3.5
3.2
3.1
3.6
4.5
4.4
2.8
3.9
1.3
7.5
2.5
1.3
2.6
2.5
Texas Industry Employment 3rd QTR 2011‐2013
Industry
3QTR EMP
ABS CHG PER CHG AWW
$952
Total, All Industries
11,042,818 610,047 5.8%
Food Services and Drinking Places
921,987 85,949 10.3% $325
Professional & Technical Services
650,628 59,256 10.0% $1,547
$699
Administrative & Support Services
707,142 49,469 7.5%
Support Activities for Mining
177,894 35,026 24.5% $1,675
$888
Ambulatory Health Care Services
649,437 30,998 5.0%
$894
Specialty Trade Contractors
355,147 30,455 9.4%
Merchant Wholesalers, Durables
319,690 24,843 8.4% $1,393
Social Assistance & Child Care
193,146 23,772 14.0% $454
$812
Educational Services
1,058,304 19,985 1.9%
Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers
164,658 16,511 11.1% $941
Oil and Gas Extraction
105,515 16,002 17.9% $2,912
Truck Transportation
134,082 15,411 13.0% $951
Credit Intermediation Activities
259,414 15,361 6.3% $1,145
Professional, Scientific & Technical Services in Texas 3rd QTR 2011‐2013
NAICS
Industry
3rd 2013 2012‐13
5413 Architectural & Engineering Services 154,052 3,770
5415 Computer Systems Design Services
135,223 9,928
5416 Management & Technical Consulting 107,082 5,563
5411 Legal Services
81,777
488
5412 Accounting & Bookkeeping Services
66,696 1,312
5419 Misc. Prof. & Technical Services
49,343
149
5418 Advertising & Public Relations Svcs
25,164 1,224
5417 Scientific Research & Development
22,345
‐555
5414 Specialized Design Services
8,280
485
AWW
$1,671 $1,836 $1,597 $1,525 $1,243 $965 $1,176 $1,628 $1,050 Estimated Occupational Staffing Pattern
for Professional & Technical Services
Occupation
Accountants and Auditors
Office Clerks, General
Lawyers
Admin. Assistants, ex. Legal, Medical
Software Developers, Applications
Bookkeeping & Accounting Clerks
Software Developers, Systems Software
Computer Systems Analysts
General & Operations Managers
Computer Support Specialists
Paralegals and Legal Assistants
Civil Engineers
Customer Service Representatives
Management Analysts
%
5.1
5.0
3.8
3.5
3.1
3.0
2.9
2.7
2.6
2.6
2.4
2.1
2.0
2.0
Education Preferred
Bachelor's degree
HS diploma/GED
Professional degree
HS diploma/GED
Bachelor's degree
HS diploma/GED
Bachelor's degree
Bachelor's degree
Associate's degree
Some college, no degree
Associate's degree
Bachelor's degree
HS diploma/GED
Bachelor's degree
Decoupling: Productivity Influences Job Creation
Output
Jobs
“New technologies are encroaching into human skills in a way that is completely unprecedented.” Andrew McAfee, MIT Center for Digital Business
“Technology should be deployed wherever possible to free humans from drudgery and repetitive tasks”
“Unfortunately, there are a lot of people who earn honest livings from drudgery and repetitive tasks.” Larry Page, Google
Disruptive Technology
What it is, why do I care?
Renewable Energy
Hydraulic fracking, creates $4 trillion in new oil & gas
Wind & solar, new energy sources & declining prices
Advanced Materials
Nano particles
3‐D Printing
Make plastic products with ink‐jet printing techniques
Batteries & capacitors
Advanced Oil & Gas Exploration
Energy Storage
Next Generation Genomics
Autonomous Cars
Cloud Technology
Internet of Things
Automation of Knowledge Work
Mobile Internet
DNA sequencing, gene mapping
Robot cars, sensors in roads
Server farms serving 2.7 billion Internet users
Web linking devices, HIT
Work activity displacement, all occupations
Smart phone interconnections, 24/7 workers
Source: McKinsey Global Institute
Work Transformations through Technology
RAF uses 3-D printed parts in test flight
3‐D Printing: Housing and Manufacturing
You are suddenly not fixed in terms of where you have to manufacture these things.,” said Mike Murray, head of airframe integration at BAE Systems. “You can manufacture the products at whatever base you want, providing you can get a machine there, which means you can also start to support other platforms such as ships and aircraft carriers
What is IT? Is this IT?
What is the IT labor market?
Can it be defined as an industry?
Can it be defined by occupation?
Can it be defined by college major?
Is IT a ubiquitous operation or a cross‐
domain function?
Should it be defined by skill set?
The Argument for Skills over Occupational Titles: Job Titles That Didn’t Exist Just 5 Years Ago
Job Title
Job Title
1. Videogame Tester
2. Market Researcher Data Miner
11. Cyber Security Specialist
12. Product Blogger
3. Bioinformatics Specialist
13. Social Media Manager
4. Healthcare Applications Analyst
14. Cyborg Anthropologist
5. Big Data Integration Engineer
15. Usability Engineer
6. Chief Listening Officer
16. Chief Sustainability Officer
7. Cloud Computing Operations Manager 17. User Experience Designer
8. E‐commerce specialist
18. Mobile App Developer
9. Search Engine Optimization Manager
19. Online Reputation Manager
10. Behavioral Analytics Specialist
20. Electronic Health Records Tech
Source: O*NET & Monster.com
Understanding Skills Gaps at a Meaningful Level
Limitations of S/D Using a CIP to SOC Crosswalk
Program
(CIP)
Crosswalk
Occupation
(SOC)
Course
Course
Course
Course
Learning Outcome
Learning Outcome
Learning Outcome
Learning Outcome
DWA
Skills
DWA
Skills
DWA
Skills
DWA
Skills
Learning Outcome
Learning Outcome
Learning Outcome
Learning Outcome
DWA
Skills
DWA
Skills
DWA
Skills
DWA
Skills
Learning Outcome
Learning Outcome
Learning Outcome
Learning Outcome
DWA
Skills
DWA
Skills
DWA
Skills
DWA
Skills
Job Title Job Title Job Title Job Title
Welcome to
www.TexasSkillsToWork.com
Where the Job Postings Are Now: May 2014
Metro Area
Postings
Metro Area
Postings
D/FW‐Arlington
224,735 Amarillo
8,360
Houston‐Baytown
185,523 Midland
8,351
Austin‐Round Rock
80,266 Beaumont‐Port Arthur
8,094
San Antonio
El Paso
Corpus Christi
Lubbock
McAllen‐Edinburg
Killeen‐Temple/Ft. Hood
Waco
Odessa
59,374
16,340
15,624
12,091
11,736
10,220
9,193
8,799
7,415
6,110
5,809
4,610
4,297
3,831
3,715
3,667
College Station‐Bryan
Tyler
Brownsville‐Harlingen
Abilene
Laredo
Longview
San Angelo
Wichita Falls
Victoria
8,754 Texarkana
3,500
March 2014 Help Wanted Job Listings for Texas
Occupation
Registered Nurses
Heavy Tractor‐Trailer Truck Drivers
Retail Salespersons
Customer Service Representatives
Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers
Supervisors, Office & Admin Support
Supervisors, Food Prep Workers
Computer User Support Specialists
Computer Systems Analysts
Maintenance and Repair Workers
Non‐technical Sales Reps, Wh & Man
Network & Systems Administrators
Accountants
Web Developers
Software Developers, Applications
Postings
32,987
29,783
18,366
16,913
16,159
12,610
11,828
11,284
11,153
10,907
10,896
10,294
10,070
9,607
9,303
Preferred education
Bach/Associate’s degree
Short term OJT
Short term OJT
Moderate term OJT
Related Work EXP
Related Work EXP
Related Work EXP
Associates degree
Bachelors
Moderate term OJT
Related Work EXP
Bachelors
Bachelors
Associates degree
Bachelors
Help Wanted Job Listings for Austin MSA (last 90 days)
Occupation
Software Developers, Applications
Registered Nurses
Retail Salespersons
Web Developers
Network Systems Administrators
Customer Service Representatives
Computer Systems Analysts
Supervisors, Retail Sales
Computer User Support Specialists
Supervisors, Food Prep Workers
Supervisors, Office & Admin Workers
Marketing Managers
Heavy and Tractor‐Trailer Truck Drivers
Non‐technical Sales Reps, WH & Man
Information Technology Project Mgrs
Dec ‘13 Dec ‘12
2,495
2,428
2,347
2,028
1,848
1,821
1,656
1,585
1,414
1,318
1,252
1,044
987
868
862
2,418
1,813
1,780
1,794
1,829
1,595
1,081
1,428
1,406
973
1,029
1,067
841
762
733
Usual Education
Bachelor’s
Associate’s/Bach
Short term OJT
Associate’s/Bach
Bachelor’s
Moderate OJT
Bachelor’s
Related experience
Associate’s
Related experience
Related experience
Bachelor’s + EXP
Short OJT
Related experience
Associate’s/Bach
Projected Fastest Growing Occupations in Texas 2010‐20
Occupational Title
Diagnostic Medical Sonographers
Derrick Operators, Oil and Gas
Home Health Aides
Personal Care Aides
Service Unit Operators, Oil & Gas
Special Education Teachers, MS
Rotary Drill Operators, Oil and Gas
Roustabouts, Oil and Gas
Medical Secretaries
Helpers--Extraction Workers
Medical Scientists
Interpreters and Translators
Middle School Teachers, Ex. CTE
Elementary School Teachers
Market Research Analysts
Cardiovascular Technicians
Industrial Machinery Mechanics
Physical Therapist Assistants
Per CHG Annual 2010‐20 Openings
Formal Education Required 52.0% 240 Associate's
51.0% 515 HS or GED
50.4% 5,220 Less than HS
49.4% 7,675 Less than HS
48.1% 1,235 HS or GED
45.1% 460 Bachelor's degree
44.4% 470 HS or GED
43.7% 1,155 Less than HS
43.2% 3,380 HS or GED
42.6% 455 HS or GED
42.3% 240 PhD/prof. degree
42.2% 360 Bachelor's degree
41.1% 5,075 Bachelor's degree
40.8% 10,430 Bachelor's degree
40.5% 1,200 Bachelor's degree
40.5% 180 Associate's
40.2% 1,840 HS or GED
40.0% 255 Associate's
Establishing reasonable expectations
“The U.S. education and employment system is not designed to be tightly coupled as in other countries such as Germany, with its highly proscribed education and career tracks. Instead, the U.S. has a fluid system in which career paths can be pursued through a range of disciplines and educational experiences.”
Dr. Hal Salzman, Rutgers University
Labor Market Reality
Reality is Relative
2011 Charles Schwab Teens & Money Survey
Poll of Americans ages 13‐18
U.S. teenagers were asked:
1. What is your average expected starting salary? 2. What will be your salary once established in a career?
Source: Charles Schwab and Boys & Girls Club of America survey conducted with Harris Interactive
Reality is Relative
2011 Charles Schwab Teens & Money Survey
Poll of Americans ages 13‐18
Starting your career: Average answer:
$73,000 a year
Boys answered: $79,700 a year
Girls answered: $66,200 a year
Source: Charles Schwab and Boys & Girls Club of America survey conducted with Harris Interactive
For real fun, check out: http://www.lmci.state.tx.us/realitycheck/
Reality is Relative
2011 Charles Schwab Teens & Money Survey
Poll of Americans ages 13‐18
Established in your career: Average answer:
$150,000 a year
Boys answered: $162,300 a year
Girls answered: $126,500 a year
Source: Charles Schwab and Boys & Girls Club of America survey conducted with Harris Interactive
For real fun, check out: http://www.lmci.state.tx.us/realitycheck/
Welcome to Reality Check 2011!
http://www.texasrealitycheck.com
More education, better labor market outcomes
Earnings by Educational Attainment – Texas Source: Survey-Weighted Quantiles from American Community Survey 2006-2010 5-year Texas Sample (In Labor Force)
“We don't read and write poetry because it's cute. We read and write poetry because we are members of the human race. And the human race is filled with passion. And medicine, law, business, engineering, these are noble pursuits and necessary to sustain life. But poetry, beauty, romance, love, these are what we stay alive for.”
John Keating, Dead Poets Society
Highest Earning College Programs 2012 Detail View
Bachelor’s Degree Graduate Major (TX) (50+)
Petroleum Engineering
Chemical Engineering
Mechanical Engineering
Registered Nursing/Nursing Administration
Mechanical Engineering Related Technologies
Industrial Production Technologies/Technicians
Computer Programming
Electrical, Electronics & Telecomm Engineering
Computer Engineering
Construction Engineering Technologies
Computer Science
Computer Systems Analysis
Computer and Information Sciences, General
Civil Engineering
Sales, Merchandising & Marketing Operations
Grads Earnings
387
$93,251
483
$70,247
1,364
$60,597
6,952
$58,697
133
$57,914
227
$57,486
79
$55,719
968
$55,703
242
$55,510
373
$53,832
226
$52,543
155
$52,411
1,088
$51,642
728
$51,587
219
$50,781
Lowest Earning College Programs 2012 Detail View
Bachelor’s Degree Graduate Major (TX) (50+)
Grads Earnings
Pastoral Counseling and Specialized Ministries
64 $18,404
Bible/Biblical Studies
55 $19,142
Drama/Theatre Arts and Stagecraft
553 $19,762
Rehabilitation and Therapeutic Professions
214 $20,037
Anthropology
514 $20,077
Dietetics and Clinical Nutrition Services
76 $20,443
Health/Medical Preparatory Programs
130 $20,578
Ethnic, Cultural Minority, & Gender Studies
63 $20,623
International Relations & National Security Studies
112 $20,642
Foods, Nutrition, and Related Services
522 $21,060
Film/Video and Photographic Arts
174 $21,288
Neurobiology and Neurosciences
143 $21,382
Zoology/Animal Biology
92 $21,639
Religious Education
139 $22,062
Radio, Television, and Digital Communication
1,008 $22,226
Highest Earning Associate’s Degree Programs 2012
Associate’s Degree Graduate Major (TX)
Grads Earnings
Fire Protection
183 $60,516
Electrical and Power Transmission Installers
54 $60,442
Mining and Petroleum Technologies/Technicians
38 $56,862
Physical Science Technologies/Technicians
474 $53,216
Quality Control & Safety Technicians
160 $51,324
Registered Nursing and Clinical Nursing
5,852 $49,708
Construction Engineering Technologies
56 $48,410
Nuclear & Industrial Radiologic Technicians
32 $48,139
Geography and Cartography
28 $47,595
Electromechanical & Instrumentation Maint. Techs
560 $46,045
Industrial Production Technologies/Technicians
151 $44,757
Precision Metal Working
185 $40,548
Finance and Financial Management Services
47 $40,471
Real Estate
61 $40,241
Electrical/Electronics Maint. & Repair Technology
67 $40,097
2013 Avg. Annual Salaries – Top Paying IT Certifications
$105,750
$103,299
$ 97,849
$ 95,950
$ 94,799
$ 93,349
$ 92,400
$ 91,350
$ 90,900
$ 90,850
$ 90,200
$ 90,100 $ 89,949
$ 89,749
Project Mgmt Institute Project Management (PMP)
Certified Info. Systems Security Professional (CIISP)
Microsoft Certified Solution Developer (MCD)
Microsoft Certified Database Administrator (MCDBA)
Cisco Certified Design Associate (CCDA)
Microsoft Certified Application Developer
VMWare Certified Professional Developer (VCP‐DV)
Novell Certified Engineer (CNE)
Info. Tech. Infrastructure Library (ITIL v3 Foundation)
Citrix Certified Administration (Citrix XenServer 6)
Microsoft Database Administration (MCITP)
Microsoft SQL Server 2005 (MCTS)
Microsoft Certified Trainer
Cisco Certified Network Professional
© 2013‐2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
http://mobile.itbusinessedge.com
43
Math = Money
The more accomplished you are at applied mathematics the more money you can make.
Structural Mismatch: 2012 Graduates Grads Earnings
Multi‐/Interdisciplinary Studies, Other
Business Administration, Mgmt. & Operations
Registered Nursing/Nursing Administration
Psychology, General
Biology, General
Health & Physical Education/Fitness
Criminal Justice and Corrections
Accounting and Related Services
Finance and Financial Management Services
Marketing
English Language and Literature, General
History
Liberal Arts, Humanities & General Studies
Communication and Media Studies
Political Science and Government
10,383
7,644
6,952
5,711
4,696
3,891
3,692
3,584
2,796
2,665
2,227
2,200
2,119
2,095
2,017
$34,739
$45,041
$58,697
$24,451
$22,753
$24,359
$29,205
$37,693
$41,699
$35,039
$25,390
$27,366
$33,278
$28,239
$27,493
http://www.thecb.state.tx.us/apps/txcrews
Regional employers say they want…
1. Good communications skills: Can you…..
Explain what you’re doing (to co‐worker or customer)?



Explain what you need (from a co‐worker or customer)?
Ability to listen to instructions?
2. Technical knowledge (degrees needed for half of all job openings)
4. Can you work with people who are of a different age, race, gender and education level than you? 5. Can‐do attitude / pleasant attitude (workers who are “engaged” in their work)
6. Critical thinking skills (if given a sequence of events, can you determine what will probably happen next) Workplace Skills
Skills
Will
Distill
Workplace Skills
Skills
Strong academics High School diploma
Post secondary schooling
Appropriate technical skills
Will
Distill
Workplace Basic Skills
Communication skills
Getting along with others
Critical thinking Skills
Will
Distill
“There’s not one specific thing or skill
people have to have to work for us.
But I can tell you why we fire people:
soft skills. We hire for hard skills. We
fire for soft skills. The ability to
interact and communicate with others
or behave ethically and take
responsibility for things tends to be
where people tend to break down.”
Rick Stephens, senior vice president of HR,
The Boeing Corporation
Workplace Basic or Foundation Skills include judgments and behaviors that demonstrate work ethic and commitment, leadership and teamwork skills, initiative and integrity, and critical thinking skills that are in high demand by employers. Sample: Workplace Basic Skills Profile for Waiters and Waitresses
Sample: Workplace Basic Skills Profile for Economist
SAMPLE: Workplace Basic Skills Profile for Chemical Engineers
Workplace Skills
Will
Distill
Skills
Stackable Credentials
Informal education
On the Job Learning
Climbing Wall
The Climbing Wall concept of Career Development: Everyone is trying to get comfortable on the wall, but each finds themselves at a different place, moving at a different pace and with a unique support system Workplace Skills
Will
Willing to take a job:
At lower level, lesser wage In a different locale
Show flexibility & initiative
Skills
Distill
Workplace Skills
Workplace Basics!
Communication skills
Getting along with others
Critical thinking Skills
Strong academics
High School diploma
Post secondary schooling
Appropriate technical skills
Will
Willing to take a job:
At lower level, lesser wage In a different locale
Show flexibility & initiative Distill
Stackable Credentials
Informal education
On the Job Learning
Climbing Wall
There is much more story to tell, but this version is over
Thank you!
[email protected]