Upredictable Markets a Certainty

Upredictable Markets a Certainty - have an edge
Written by Tyler Bollhorn - StockScores.com
Saturday, 29 August 2009 10:36
Trading Track Record
Stockscores.com Perspectives for the week ending August 22, 2009
Do you know what is going to happen to the stocks you own on Monday? Can you go through
your portfolio one stock at a time and describe how those stocks will finish the trading day? Up?
Down? How much will they move? What would you rather bet $1000 on, your ability to make
these predictions or your ability to predict what will happen to an ice cube left on the hood of
your car in the middle of a hot summer day?
Expressed in these terms, all rational people will agree that there is uncertainty in the stock
market, that predicting where prices will go is not a matter of science the way predicting how ice
will melt is.
Therefore, we must all remind ourselves that the stock market can not be predicted.
Some of you will have trouble agreeing with this last statement because we think that we can
predict where stocks will go, that is the reason we trade the market, to make money from our
predictions.
But no one can predict the market with absolute certainty. Therefore, you have to stop looking
at trading one trade at a time. Imagine what would happen to the casino owner who looked at
their gambling business one bet at a time. The casino can not predict who will win the
Superbowl or what the next card drawn in a game of Blackjack will be. And so, they don't try.
What the casino does, and what you as a trader should be doing, is trading the probability of
what will happen. The casino makes money because they know what will happen over the next
1000 hands of blackjack. They can balance the odds of a football game in their favor. They
have an edge.
The question is, do you have an edge in the market?
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Upredictable Markets a Certainty - have an edge
Written by Tyler Bollhorn - StockScores.com
Saturday, 29 August 2009 10:36
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2/4
Upredictable Markets a Certainty - have an edge
Written by Tyler Bollhorn - StockScores.com
Saturday, 29 August 2009 10:36
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3/4
Upredictable Markets a Certainty - have an edge
Written by Tyler Bollhorn - StockScores.com
Saturday, 29 August 2009 10:36
Tyler
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References
Getday,
the
Stockscore
on
any
ofused
over
20,000
North
American
stocks.
Background
on
the
theories
by
Stockscores.
Strategies
that
can
help
you
find
new
opportunities.
Scan
the
market
using
extensive
filter
criteria.
Build
anot
portfolio
of
stocks
and
view
aDon't
slide
show
of
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See
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Disclaimer
This
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The
may
writers
trade
isBollhorn
not
in
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your
and
purposes
contained
in
the
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editors
own
stocks
due
only.
herein.
of
mentioned.
advisory,
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Perspectives
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should
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stock
be
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buy
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considered
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decisions.
sell
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