FEWS as a main component of BfG`sforecasting services for the

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FEWS as a main component of BfG`sforecasting services for the
FEWS as a main component of BfG's
forecasting services for the German Waterways
Dennis Meißner1, Benedikt Sommer2, Silke Rademacher1, Oliver Bucholz2
1
Federal Institute of Hydrology, Koblenz
2 Hydrotec Ingenieurgesellschaft für Wasser und Umwelt mbH, Aachen
Delft-FEWS User Days
Delft, 29 & 30 October 2014
The German waterway network
(German Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital
Infrastructure, Fachstelle für Geoinformation Süd)
German waterways are an integral part of the „wet“ Trans-European Transport
Network (TEN-T) connecting North Sea, the Baltic and the Black Sea
The German waterway network
Inland waterways (~ 7,300 km)
Seaways (~17,800 km²)
(German Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital
Infrastructure, Fachstelle für Geoinformation Süd)
 approximately 240 million tons / year are
transported along the German waterways
 70 % of the German waterways are of
international relevance
 The River Rhine is one of the most frequented
inland waterways in the world.
 There‘s a need to use the free capacity of
inland waterways more consequently in
reaction to the continuing transport growth
economically and ecological sustainably.
The German waterway network
Inland waterways (~ 7,300 km)
Seaways (~17,800 km²)
free-flowing rivers
(~ 30 %)
impounded rivers
(~ 45 %)
canals
(~ 25 %)
(www.wsv.de)
(German Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital
Infrastructure, Fachstelle für Geoinformation Süd)
Different characteristics cause vulnerability to different hydrological impacts
(www.wsv.de)
(www.wsv.de)
Hydrological impacts on inland waterways
Navigation on inland waterways is limited
due to:
•
floods (relevant for all rivers)
•
low flows (mainly free flowing rivers)
•
river ice (mainly canals, impounded rivers)
Hydrological impacts on inland waterways
Restriction of inland waterway transport (IWT) due to …
… river ice
… high / low water-levels
 river ice: occurrence in Central Europe over a limited period of the year
 floods:
could cause relevant costs for IWT, but are rare
 low flows: occur frequently and are relatively long lasting
Low flows could be regarded as main threat of the reliability of European IWT
Forecasting at BfG
 Development & maintenance of operational forecasting systems
for the German waterways (“WAVOS”)
 … related to water-levels, discharges, ice formation on rivers and canals
 … for the Waterway and Shipping Administration (Rhine, Danube, Elbe)
 … for the Federal States (Odra, Main, Saar, Elbe)
 … continuing improvement of the system / the models / the modules
 Operational water-level forecasting (“navigation related”) at Rhine, Danube
 Operational forecasting of ice formation for the most important canals
 Support of forecasting centers using BfG’s forecasting system WAVOS
 Involvement in national and international research projects related to
hydrological forecasting (e.g. ECCONET, H-SAF, EUPORIAS etc.)
BfG‘s operational forecasting systems
Water and Shipping
Authority
Hann. Münden
Water management
barrage Eder
Flood Forecasting
Centre Frankfurt
(Odra)
Federal Institute
of Hydrology
Flood and Traffic-related
Forecast Odra
Traffic-related Forecast
Rhine and Danube,
Management Kiel Canal*),
Ice formation on canals
Water and Shipping
Authority
Magdeburg
*)
under development
Flood Forecasting
Center Rhine
(WSV + Rheinl.-Pfalz)
Flood Forecast Rhine
from station Worms
Traffic-related Forecast
Elbe
Flood Forecasting
Centre Elbe
(Saxony-Anhalt)
Flood Forecast Elbe
Flood Forecasting
Centre Main (Bavaria)
Flood Forecating
Centre (Saxony)
Flood and daily Forecast
Main
Flood Forecast Elbe in
Saxony
Delft-FEWS as a main forecast component
2006
Installation of „Delft-FEWS Rhine“ at BfG
2008
Integration of Delft-FEWS in operational forecasting procedure
(Rhine)
Delft-FEWS as a main forecast component
2006
Installation of „Delft-FEWS Rhine“ at BfG
2008
Integration of Delft-FEWS in operational forecasting procedure
(Rhine)
2009
Update of HBV-model Rhine within Delft-FEWS, optimization / addition of
workflows
2010
Import and processing of radar-based precipitation products for the Rhine
2011
-
2012
Implementation of REW-model for River Moselle
2013
Import / processing of differnt ensemble forecasts from ECMWF, DWD
2014
Extension of Delft-FEWS with regard to its spatial domain and
forecast tasks; set-up and usage of shadow-system in Delft
Extension to all German river basins
 Coverage of all basins realted the inland waterways
Eider
Ems
Odra
Weser
Elbe
Rhine
Danube
Domain of FEWS-BfG
2006 – 2013
Current Domain of
FEWS-BfG
(~ 170.000 km²)
(~ 465.000 km²)
Extension to all German river basins
 Implementation of additional meteorological and
hydrological stations
 Import of additional parameters




dewpoint temperature
air pressure
sunduration
wind speed and direction
2013
~ 1000 stations
2014
~ 1800 stations
Generation of official forecast products
 Producing reports with Delft-FEWS
 Requirements of general content:
 Information about timeliness of meteorological forecasts
 Combination of maps, graphs, tables, text
 PDF-documents with the file name containing generation date
Delft-FEWS
Workflow
Export
graphics
Export
time series
Export scripts,
legends etc.
Data Set
Java
Export template
filled with info
Template
PDF
HTML
Report
PDF-Converter
Report
Report „Hydrometeorology for waterways“
 Replacement / enhancements of an existing BfG-instrument
to prepare meteorological forecast from DWD / ECMWF
for waterway authorities in the different basins
 Generation of HTML- and PDF-exports by FEWS
 complex time-/content related reporting scheme
 export of up to 56 reports at one time
 creation of 381 maps of forecast data
 conditional lebelling
 generation of multi page pdfs
Report „Hydrometeorology for waterways“
Report „Rhine tributaries“
 Extended support for Flood Forecasting Center Rhine
 Synopsis of various deterministic flow forecasts and the
COSMO-LEPS ensemble
 Reports as HTML- and PDF-documents
Report „Probabilistic water-level forecasts“
 Probability that water-levels will exceed or fall below of
threshold values relevant for navigation
1.
2.
3.
4.
Ensemble simulation of water levels along the River Rhine
Statistical analysis (matter of current R & D activities at BfG)
Calculation of exceedance probabilities for every time step
Identification of maximum value per day
Probabilistic water-level forecasts Rhine
New module to forecast ice formation
 Additional modules to forecast ice formation ( canals)
 replacement of BfG‘s former forecast system
 recipient: all waterway users
New module to forecast ice formation
 Additional modules to forecast ice formation (for canals)
 replacement of BfG‘s former forecast system
 recipient: all waterway users
 Linked to Delft-FEWS by general adapter

JAVA code by Hydrotec
 Input



Water temperature (measured, manuel input)
Air temperature (measured and forecast over 10 d)
Ice thickness (measured, manuel input)
 Output


Water temperature over 10 d
Ice thickness over 10 d
 Export


PDF for 3 different canals,
subdivided into 12 sections
Time series (input/output) in
csv-format
Prototype module for early ice warning on
impounded rivers
 Additional modules to estimate potential ice formation (for impounded rivers)
 new element of BfG‘s ice forecasting system
 recipient: Waterway ans Shipping Administration
 Calculation risk of icing by comparison of
output (water temperature) with threshould values
 Linked to Delft-FEWS by general adapter



 JAVA code by Hydrotec
Input
 Water temperature (measured)
 Air temperature (15 day moving average of measurements
and forecasts over 10 days)
Output
 Water temperature for next 10 days
 Risk of icing for next 10 days
Export
 PDF early ice warning Mosel/Saar
 Time series (input/ output) csv-format
PDF-export early ice warning Mosel/Saar
FEWS in the context of R&D activities
 Linking of in-house developed modules with Delft-FEWS
(ensemble calibration, probabilistic postprocessing, error correction)
„operational staff“
„research & development staff“
Hindcast
dataset(s)
Hindcast
dataset(s)
FEWS in the context of R&D activities
 Linking of in-house developed modules with Delft-FEWS
(example multivariate BMA)
End of
MER, GME
End of
COSMO-LEPS
(Hemri, S., Fundel, F. & M. Zappa (2013): Simultaneous calibration of ensemble river flow
predictions over an entire range of lead times. Water Resources Research 49, 6744–6755)
Conclusions and next steps
 From the beginning on FEWS (for the Rhine) has been an
important tool within BfG‘s forecast environment for the German waterways.
 In 2014 FEWS-BfG was substantially extended in order to operate additional
tasks of the forecast service for the waterways (reduce redundant data, maximize
synergetic effects, e.g. in case of changes in meteo inputs).
 Although the automatization of forecast tasks proceeds, BfG still strictly
seperates the generation of forecasts and the dissemination of (verified) forecast
products.
 FEWS is used more consequent in research & development activities (provision
of quasi-operational data, validation of methods in the operational environment)
to improve the transfer of models / tools in operational forecasting.
 Scheduled extensions of BfG‘s operational forecasting services (with probable
FEWS involvement): forecast to support water management of several
waterways / canals, monthly and seasonal hydrological forecasts for rivers.
Thank you for your attention !
Dennis Meißner
Department Water Balance, Forecasting and Predictions
Bundesanstalt für Gewässerkunde / Federal Institute of Hydrology
Am Mainzer Tor 1, 56068 Koblenz, Germany
Tel.: +49 261/1306-5183
E-Mail: [email protected]
www.bafg.de/vorhersage