Electricity Generation Forecast

Transcription

Energy Sector
Turkey
January 2014
Produced by:
Any redistribution of this information is strictly prohibited.
Copyright © 2014 EMIS, all rights reserved.
-1-
Table of Contents
I. Sector Overview
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
V. Oil and Gas
Sector Highlights
Main Indicators
Electricity Generation Sector Main Indicators
Electricity Demand Forecast
Planned Projects
Government Policy
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
VI.M&A and Latest Developments
1. Top 20 M&A Deals in Energy Sector 2012-2013
2. Top 20 M&A Deals in Energy Sector 2012-2013 (cont’d)
3. Latest Developments
II. Power Generation
1. Installed Capacity by Enterprises and Resources
2. Privatisation of Power Generation Assets
3. Nuclear Energy Projects
VII.Main Players
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
III. Green Energy
1. Green Energy Highlights
2. Green Energy Installed Capacity
3. Green Energy Potential
IV. Electricity Distribution
1. Regional Electricity Distribution Privatisation
2. Regional Electricity Distribution Privatisation (cont’d)
Oil and Gas Highlights
Oil and Gas Indicators and Forecasts
Natural Gas Consumption
Natural Gas Imports
Regional Gas Distribution
Pipeline Projects
-2-
Elektrik Üretim A.Ş. (EÜAŞ)
Elektrik Üretim A.Ş. (EÜAŞ) (cont’d)
TÜRKİYE PETROL RAFİNERİLERİ A.Ş. (TÜPRAŞ)
TÜRKİYE PETROL RAFİNERİLERİ A.Ş. (TÜPRAŞ) (cont’d)
İstanbul Gaz Dağıtım Sanayi ve Ticaret A.Ş (İGDAŞ)
İstanbul Gaz Dağıtım Sanayi ve Ticaret A.Ş (İGDAŞ) (cont’d)
Türkiye Petrolleri Anonim Ortaklığı (TPAO)
Türkiye Petrolleri Anonim Ortaklığı (TPAO) (cont‘d)
I. Sector Overview
-3-
Sector Highlights
Liberalisation
In the last decade, Turkey introduced legislation to liberalise and restructure its energy sector, following a policy aimed at raising its efficiency and
adding new capacity to meet the growing demand. Turkish energy consumption has been steadily rising on the back of country's robust economic
growth and rising population. Electricity consumption grew by 1.3% to 245,484 GWh in 2013, after rising by over 5.0% in the previous year. In the
medium term, power demand is projected to continue growing at an average rate of 7% annually.
Investment needs
Local primary resources meet only 28% of the Turkey energy demand. In order to reduce its energy imports bill and to increase the share of
renewable energy, the government has introduced new legislation aiming to attract many private energy companies and foreign investment in the
sector. Turkey estimates its energy sector requires investment of USD 120-130bn by 2023. A total 222 power plants with nearly 7,000 MW of
installed capacity were launched in 2013. The share of the private sector in installed capacity currently stands at approximately 57%, up from 39%
ten years ago.
Privatisation
In 2013, the country completed the privatisation of regional electricity distribution companies and signed the first deals in the planned privatisation
of the state's large thermal and hydropower plants with a total capacity of more than 16 GW. The government plans to launch a number of largescale investment projects, including the construction of nuclear plants. The country is aiming to generate 5% of its total electricity output from
nuclear energy by 2023. In 2010, Turkey and Russia inked a deal to build the first nuclear power plant at Akkuyu, southern Turkey. In 2013, the
country signed an agreement with Japan for the construction of its second nuclear power plant in Sinop, on the Black Sea.
Strategic location
Turkey serves as a bridge between the oil and gas rich Caspian and Middle East countries and the energy-hungry Western European states.
The Turkish government seeks to capitalise on this favourable geographical position by making the country a regional energy hub. In line with this
goal, it is involved in a number of international gas and oil pipeline projects, including Shah Deniz, TANAP and TAP.
-4-
Main Sector Indicators
Turkey energy sector in figures
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
GDP (TRY mn)
950,534
952,559
1,098,799
1,297,713
1,416,817
GDP (USD mn)
730,337
614,554
731,608
773,980
786,293
0.7
-4.8
9.2
8.8
2.2
28,768
32,486
GDP real growth (%)
Electricity, gas and water supply (TRY mn)
20,638
22,818
25,455
Electricity, gas and water supply growth rate (%)
28
10.6
11.6
13
12.9
Electricity, gas and water supply share in GDP (%)
2.2
2.4
2.3
2.2
2.3
19,760
8,663
9,036
16,047
13,018
107
2,158
1,826
4,246
924
Net foreign direct investment (USD mn)
Foreign capital inflow in electricity, gas and water supply sector (USD mn)
Comments
The utilities (electricity, gas and water) sector has been expanding at an annual rate of 11-13% in recent years. The utility sector was one of the main
beneficiaries of FDI in the previous years and the government's liberalisation efforts, pending privatisations and the industry's high growth prospects are
expected to drew more investment to the sector.
Source: Turkstat, Turkish Treasury
-5-
Electricity Generation Sector Main Indicators
Generation and consumption
Electricity generation by primary resources 2012
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
41,817
44,761
49,524
52,911
57,059
Production (GWh)
198,418
194,813
211,207
229,395
239,497
Consumption (GWh)
198,085
194,079
210,434
230,306
242,370
Installed capacity (MW)
Imports (GWh)
Exports (GWh)
789
1,122
812
1,546
1,883
2,675
4,556
3,645
Hydropower
24.2%
5,827
Natural gas
43.6%
2,954
Coal 28.0%
Fuel, oil 1.0%
Wind 2.5%
Geothermal,
waste, other
0.7%
Comments
Electricity consumption rose by 5.2% in 2012 compared to 9.4% growth in the previous year. Turkey's state power company Elektrik Uretim AS (EUAS)
and its subsidiaries had a 37.8% share in total electricity generation in 2012 while free market generation accounted for a 30.9% share.
Natural gas remains the main resource in electricity generation. It accounts for between 40% and 50% in recent years.
Source: EPDK
-6-
Electricity Demand Forecast
High demand power forecast
Peak load (MW)
Peak load Increase (%)
Electricity demand (GWh)
Electricity demand growth (%)
2013f
2014f
2015f
2016f
2017f
2018f
2019f
2020f
2021f
2022f
41,000
43,500
46,420
49,370
52,490
55,780
59,260
62,930
66,320
69,880
5.0
6.1
6.7
6.4
6.3
6.3
6.2
6.2
5.4
5.4
258,140
278,960
301,300
320,470
340,710
362,100
384,670
408,500
430,510
453,560
6.7
8.1
8.0
6.4
6.3
6.3
6.2
6.2
5.4
5.4
Low demand power forecast
Peak load (MW)
Peak load Increase (%)
Electricity demand (GWh)
Electricity demand growth (%)
2013f
2014f
2015f
2016f
2017f
2018f
2019f
2020f
2021f
2022f
40,250
41,500
42,900
44,570
46,270
48,500
50,900
53,380
55,790
58,230
3.1
3.1
3.4
3.9
3.8
4.8
4.9
4.9
4.5
4.4
253,770
265,780
278,160
289,330
300,390
314,850
330,440
346,510
362,130
378,000
4.9
4.7
4.7
4.0
3.8
4.8
5.0
4.9
4.5
4.4
Source: EPDK
-7-
Planned Projects
Planned projects
Private sector
Installed
capacity (MW)
Government
sector installed
capacity (MW)
Private sector
generation
(GWh)
Government
sector
generation
(GWh)
Installed capacity of planned projects by resource (2013-2017)
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
5,351
1,311
5,756
2,124
1,200
1,510
124
1,200
140
0
198,085
194,079
210,434
230,306
242,370
789
812
1,883
4,556
5,827
Hydropower
44.8%
Wind, other
renewables
6.7%
Thermal
48.5%
Comments
According to Turkey's Energy Market Regulatory Authority (EPDK), there are private and state projects with total capacity of 18,717 MW, which are to be
put into operation by 2017. Of these, 48.5% are thermal power projects and 44.8% are for hydropower plants. Private sector projects for another 25,381
MW have been licensed but their launched date is uncertain.
According to the second forecast scenario of the regulator, projects with installed capacity of 16,832 MW will be put into operation by 2017 and the private
sector has in the pipeline licensed projects for 27,266 MW with uncertain launch date.
Source: EPDK
-8-
Electricity generation forecast
2014
2015
2016
251.95
267.41
282.1
300.72
315.73
5.6
5.99
5.64
6.60
4.99
174.88
183.48
193.04
202.04
210.63
4.03
4.92
5.21
4.66
4.25
66.27
69.06
72.92
76.34
79.00
4
4.2
5.6
4.68
3.49
105.49
111.29
116.96
122.63
128.62
4.3
5.5
5.1
4.84
4.89
Oil generation (TWh)
3.12
3.14
3.15
3.07
3.01
Oil generation growth (%)
-3.68
0.61
0.42
-2.33
-2.26
Hydropower generation (TWh)
62.71
66.47
68.8
74.99
77.51
6.5
6
3.5
9.00
3.36
Non-hydropower renewables generation (TWh)
14.36
17.08
20.27
23.69
27.59
Non-hydropower renewables generation growth (%)
23.74
18.93
18.64
16.87
16.49
Total generation (TWh)
Total generation growth (%)
Thermal generation (TWh)
Thermal generation growth (%)
Coal generation (TWh)
Coal generation growth (%)
Natural gas generation (TWh)
Natural gas generation growth (%)
Hydropower generation growth (%)
Source: BMI
-9-
2017
2018
Government Policy
The Turkish energy market is overseen by the Ministry of Energy and Natural
Resources. General Principals are set by the Electricity Market Law (2001), the
Regulators
Natural Gas Market Law (2001), the Petroleum Market Law (2003) and the Liquefied
Petroleum Gases (LPG) Market Law (2005). The High Planning Council, supervised
by the Prime Minister, outlines the state policy in the sector.
The main objectives of this policy include decreasing import dependency and providing variety
in source, route and technology. The government aims to achieve several clear targets. These
Objectives
include developing domestic coal and hydropower potential, increasing total installed wind
power to 20,000 MW, and generation of 5% of total electricity from nuclear power by 2023.
The supervisory and regulatory body of the electricity market is the Energy Market Regulatory
Authority (EPDK), responsible for tariff approvals and the issuance of operation licenses.
As part of the energy sector restructuring process, Turkey introduced three
concession models for energy plants: Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT), Build-Operate
Liberalisation
(BO) and Transfer-of-Operating-Rights (TOR). The TOR model was chosen for the
privatisation of some of the country’s regional distribution companies and of 52 small
hydroelectric power plants operated by the state power generation company EUAS.
Source:
- 10 -
The government is seeking
to ensure energy supply by
promoting generation from
local sources and nuclear
energy.
BOT, BO and TOR models
are used to attract private
investors in electricity
generation and distribution.
The state monopoly is
retained for transmission
between wholesale and
generation.
Market prices and regulated
tariff approved by EBDK are
both present on the market.
From 2014 companies
consuming more than 4.5
MWh a year can choose
their own supplier.
Legislation for the
establishment of an energy
stock exchange was
adopted in 2013.
II. Power Generation
- 11 -
Installed Capacity by Enterprises and Resources
Installed capacity by enterprise 2012
TOR and free
market
producer 36%
A total 43.4% of Turkish electricity generation capacity
is still in the hands of state-owned EUAS and its
BOO 10.7%
affiliates. The share of the private sector is expected to
increase as the government is process of privatising
Autoproducers
5.6%
thermal and hydropower plants with a combined
capacity of over MW 16,000.
BOT 4.3%
EUAS 43.4%
Turkey had a total installed capacity of 57,059 MW at
the end of 2012, up from 52,911 MW a year ago. The
Installed capacity by resource 2012
installed capacity is estimated to have reached 61,984
MW in October 2013. The hydropower plants have the
Coal 21.7%
Natural gas,
LNG 30.1%
largest share in terms of installed capacity, followed by
the natural gas-fired plants and the coal-fired plants.
Wind 4.0%
With the completion of power plants currently under
Multi-fuelled
6.9%
Fuel, oil 2.4%
Hydropower
34.4%
construction, the share of hydropower plants in total
installed capacity is expected to increase, while the
Geothermal,
waste, other
0.5%
share of natural gas is expected to decrease.
Source: EUAS
- 12 -
Privatisation of Power Generation Assets
Turkey plans to privatise 45 thermal and hydropower plants with total capacity of more than 16 GW. These assets represent 68% of the EUAS group's installed capacity.
Four priority power plants were identified in order to be privatised separately and the remianing assets were initially grouped in nine portfolios. The Privatisation
Administration has however stated that this approach may change taking into account the the developments in the industry and international markets. The country held
tenders for the sale of 17 small hydropower plants in late 2012 and after completing tenders for another 35 small hydropower plants in 2010.
Separately
Seyitömer (600 MW) (privatised by Celikler
Holding for USD 2.25bn)
Hamitabat (1,165 MW) –
(privatised by Limak
Group for USD 105mn)
Soma A-B (1,034 MW)
Çan (320 MW)
Portfolio 5
Kemerköy (630 MW)
Yatağan (630 MW)
Yeniköy (420 MW)
Demirköprü (69 MW)
Adıgüzel (62 MW)
Kemer (48 MW)
Karacaören-1 (32 MW)
Gezende (159 MW)
Portfolio 1
Elbistan A (1,355 MW)
Elbistan B (1,440 MW)
Portfolio 6
Altınkaya (703 MW)
Derbent (56 MW)
Hirfanlı (128 MW)
Kesikköprü (76 MW)
Kapulukaya (54 MW)
Portfolio 2
Ambarlı DG (1,351 MW)
Ambarlı Fuel-oil (630 MW)
Portfolio 7
Hasan Uğurlu (500 MW)
Suat Uğurlu (69 MW)
Almus (27 MW)
Köklüce (90 MW)
Kılıçkaya (120 MW)
Çamlıgöze (32 MW)
Source: EUAS, Privatisation Administration
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2014 Internet
EMIS, allSecurities,
rights reserved.
Inc. (trading as ISI Emerging Markets), all rights reserved.
- 13 -
Portfolio 3
Aliağa (180 MW)
Kangal (457 MW)
(privatised by Konya
Seker- Siyahkalem
Muhendislik for USD
985mn)
Tunçbilek (365 MW)
Çatalağzı (300 MW)
Portfolio 4
Bursa DG (1,432 MW)
Orhaneli (210 MW)
Gökçekaya (278 MW)
Sarıyar (160 MW)
Yenice (38 MW)
Portfolio 8
Portfolio 9
Çamlıgöze (32 MW)
Aslantaş (138 MW)
Menzelet (124 MW)
Kısık (10 MW)
Karkamış (189 MW)
Doğankent (75 MW)
Kürtün (85 MW)
Tortum (26 MW)
Özlüce (170 MW)
Nuclear Energy Projects
Plans
Turkey wants to have two operational nuclear plants and to start construction of a third one by 2023 under a plan
which envisages nuclear energy to represent 5% of the country's total electricity generation mix. The first nuclear
plant is to be built in Akkuyu, on the Mediterranean coast and the second one is to be located in Sinop, on the Black
Sea coast.
Akkuyu
In May 2010, Turkey and Russia signed a USD 20bn agreement to build four reactors with a total capacity of 4,800 MW in
Akkuyu, on the Mediterranean coast. Russia will fully finance the construction fo the plant and initially hold 100% of the project
and may sell a 49% stake at a later stage. The construction of the first unit is to start in mid-2015, with commissioning in 20192020. The remaining units should be launched by 2023. The plant has been granted a feed-in tariff of USD 0.1235/KWh for two
of its four units for 15 years after commissioning, guaranteed by TETAS, Turkey's state power trading company. After the
expiry of the 15-year period the Turkish side will receive 20% of the project company’s net profit over the following 45 years.
Sinop
In May 2013, Turkey and Japan signed a deal for the construction of the second Turkish nuclear power plant in
Sinop at an estimated cost of USD 22bn. The 4,800 MW power plant will be built by Japan's Mitsubishi and Itochu
Corporation and France's GDF Suez, using French nuclear group Areva's Atmea type reactors. Turkish state power
generator EUAS will hold a stake of around 35% in the project.
Third N-plant
The consortium, which will build the Sinop nuclear power plant, will also carry out studies for the location of the
third Turkish nuclear plant. Igneada, on the Bulgarian border, is considered to be the preferred location for the third
plant. The country has sufficient uranium resources for the operation of these nuclear power plants.
- 14 -
III. Green Energy
- 15 -
Green Energy Highlights
Legislation
In 2005, the country introduced its first law on Renewable Energy Resources that provided for limited feed-in tariffs.
In 2011, additional feed-in tariff payments for renewable power plants using Turkish-made equipment were
introduced.
Hydro
The total installed capacity of hydropower plants in Turkey reached 21,724 MW at the end of October 2013. The
country has a potential to produce 140 billion of kWh a year. About 41% of it is already being used and power plants,
which will exploit a further 27% of it, currently are under construction.
Wind
The installed capacity of operational wind power plants in the country stood at 2,689 MW at the end of October
2013. A total 112 wind power plants with combined installed capacity of 2,613 MW were launched in 2013.
Geothermal
Turkey's geothermal installed capacity stands at 310 MW. Between 2008 and 2012, the country completed tenders
to transfer to private investors 16 geothermal fields suitable for energy generation in addition to 69 tenders for
heating and spa tourism projects. The country is considered to have geothermal potential of 35,500 MW, of which
311 MW can be used for electricity generation.
- 16 -
Green Energy Installed Capacity
Green energy installed capacity as of Oct 2013
Hydropower
87.1%
 Turkey produced 65.3 million kWh electricity from
renewable sources in 2012, up from 58.2 billion kWh
in 2011.
Wind 10.8%
 The country aims to produce 30% of its electricity
from renewable sources by 2023, compared to some
25% in 2011.
Geothermal,
other 2.1%
Installed capacity of power plants launched in 2013
 Turkey’s green energy installed capacity reached
24,947 MW in October 2013.
Hydropower
37.4%
 Renewable energy plants with total installed capacity
of 3,339 MW went operation only in 2013. Of these,
hydropower plants were with 2,613 MW and wind
parks were with 498 MW of installed capacity. A total
222 power plants with total installed capacity of
6,986 MW were put into operation in 2013.
Wind 7.1%
Thermal 52.2%
Geothermal,
biomass, other
3.3%
Source: Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources
- 17 -
Green Energy Potential
Installed capacity potential by sources
Highlights
Solar 37%
Wind 35%
 Turkey targets to have 600 MW of installed capacity in
geothermal energy by 2023.
Biomass 2%
 The installed capacity of wind power plants is targeted
to rise to 20,000 MW by 2023.
Hydro 26%
Generation potential by sources
 The installed capacity potential for solar plants is
estimated at 50,000 MW. The country plans to have
installed capacity of 3,000 MW of solar energy by
2023.
Wind 26%
Solar 3%
 By 2023, Turkey plans to have biomass installed
capacity of 2,000 MW, which is the full estimated
potential for this type of renewable energy.
Biomass 6%
Hydro 63%
Geothermal
2%
Source: Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources
- 18 -
IV. Electricity Distribution
- 19 -
Regional Electricity Distribution Privatisation
Regional Electricity Distribution Privatisation
Company
Status
Date of Announcement
Buyer
Deal Value, USD mn
Dicle Elektrik Dağıtım A.Ş.
Completed
March 2013
Iskaya Dogu Ortak Girisim
387
Vangölü Elektrik Dağıtım A.Ş.
Completed
March 2013
Turkerler Insaat
118
Aras Elektrik Dağıtım A.Ş.
Completed
Sept 2008
Kiler, Calik Holding
Çoruh Elektrik Dağıtım A.Ş.
Complete
Nov 2009
Aksa Elektrik
227
Fırat Elektrik Dağıtım A.Ş.
Completed
Feb 2010
Aksa Elektrik
230.25
Çamlıbel Elektrik Dağıtım A.Ş.
Completed
Feb 2010
Kolin Insaat
258.5
Toroslar Elektrik Dağıtım A.Ş.
Completed
March 2013
Enerjisa
1,725
Meram Elektrik Dağıtım A.Ş.
Completed
Sept 2008
Alarko Holding
Başkent Elektrik Dağıtım A.Ş.
Completed
July 2008
Enerjisa
128.5
440
1,225
Comments
The privatisation of Anadolu Yakasi, Toroslar, Dicle and Vangolu was completed in 2013. The first two were taken over by Enerjisa, which
increased the number of the electricity distribution companies in its portfolio to three, including Baskent Elektrik.
Polat Insaat was selected as the new operator of Osmangazi Elektrik after Energy Market Regulatory Authority took over the management of
the distribution company from Eti Gumus, which won a previous privatisation tender with a USD 485 bid in 2010.
Source: DealWatch
- 20 -
Regional Electricity Distribution Privatisation (cont’d)
Privatisation of electricity distribution companies
Company
Status
Date of Announcement
Uludağ Elektrik Dağıtım A.Ş.
Completed
Feb 2010
Limak Insaat
940
Akdeniz Elektrik Dağıtım A.Ş.
Completed
Nov 2012
Limak-Cengiz-Kolin
546
Gediz Elektrik A.Ş
Completed
Dec 2012
Elsan-Tumas-Karacay
Trakya Elektrik Dağıtım A.Ş..
Completed
Jan 2012
IC Ictas
575
İstanbul Anadolu Yakası Elektrik
Dağıtım A.Ş.
Completed
March 2013
Enerjisa
1,227
Sakarya Elektrik Dağıtım A.Ş.
Completed
July 2008
AkCez
600
Osmangazi Elektrik Dağıtım A.Ş.
Announced
Nov 2013
Polat Insaat
590
Boğaziçi Elektrik Dağıtım A.Ş..
Completed
Dec 2012
Limak-Cengiz-Kolin
Kayseri Elektrik Dağıtım A.Ş.
Completed
1991
Aydem Elektrik Dağıtım A.Ş.
Completed
Yeşilırmak Elektrik Dağıtım A.Ş
Completed
Source: DealWatch
- 21 -
Buyer
Deal Value, USD mn
1,231
1,960
Kayseri ve Civarı Elektrik
T.A.Ş.
n.a.
Aug 2008
Bereket Enerji
110
Nov 2009
Calik Enerji
441.5
V. Oil and Gas
- 22 -
Oil and Gas Highlights
Demand &
Reserves
Turkey's oil and gas production industry is unable to the meet fast growing demand. Over 98% of natural gas and 91% of crude
oil consumed in 2012 was imported. Turkey's producible oil and gas reserves stand at 295mn barrels and 6.8 bn cub m,
respectively, as of end 2012. Gas is produced in southeastern Anatolia, Thrace and the western Black Sea regions.
Gas Imports
Around 58% of Turkish gas imports in 2012 were met by Russia. Turkey imported 18% of its natural gas from Iran and
Azerbaijan accounted for 7%. The country also buys Algerian and Nigerian LNG, which account for 9% and 3%, respectively, of
total gas imports. A total 83% of the natural gas was imported by pipelines and the remaining was LNG. Turkey exported 611
mn cub m of natural gas, produced at Azeri project Shah Deniz, to Greece in 2012, down from 714 mn cub m in the previous
year.
Liberalisation
The Natural Gas Market Law (2001) removed the state monopoly on gas imports. In 2005 contracts for gas imports of 4 bn cub
m from Russia were transferred to four private sector companies. First imports by Shell Enerji started in December 2007,
Bosphorus Gaz Corporation, Enerco Enerji and Avrasya Gaz started imports in 2009. The private companies signed
agreements to import another 6 bn cub m Russian natural gas annually from the beginning of 2013. The state gas pipeline
company Botas accounted for 92.3% of the total Turkish gas imports in 2012.
TPAO
Local natural gas production totalled 632 mn cub m in 2012, down from 759 mn cub m in the previous year. State-owned
Turkish Petroleum Corporation (TPAO) accounted for 52% of the local production, while Thrace Basin Natural Gas contributed
for 26% of the domestically extracted natural gas in 2012. The other companies, active in gas production in Turkey, are Amity
Oil, Tiway Turkey, Petrogas, Temi, PO Arama Uretim and Foinavon.
Oil
In 2013, Iraq was the biggest crude oil exporter to Turkey, with 5.4 million tons and a 32% share in the total Turkish imports.
Second came Iran with 4.8 million tons, which in recent years lost its position as the largest oil exporter to Turkey as a result of
the stricter sanctions. In 2003 Turkey imported 2.6 million tons from Saudi Arabia, followed by Kazakhstan and Russia with 1.3
million tons. TPAO accounted for about 73% of Turkish oil production with the remainder produced mainly by Perenco and
Petrom Dorchester.
- 23 -
Oil and Gas Indicators and Forecasts
Oil and gas sector indicators
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
35,842
37,350
35,856
38,037
43,875
45,922
Gas production, mn cub m
874
969
684
682
759
632
Gas exports, mn cub m
30.8
435.8
708.5
648.6
714
611
35,395
36,865
35,219
37,411
43,697
45.242
CNG gas sales, mn cub m
29.1
36.5
33.9
46.2
55.5
54.9
Crude oil production , thou tonnes
2,134
2,160
2,401
2,496
2,367
2,300
Processed oil, mn tonnes
25.59
24.21
16.98
19.55
20.9
22.1
Gas imports, mn cub m
Gas consumption, mn cub m
Oil and gas sector forecast
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Crude oil production, thou barrels/day
45.2
44.5
43.9
43.3
42.6
42
Crude oil refining capacity, thou barrels/day
564.5
564.5
564.5
564.5
778.5
778.5
Crude oil refining capacity utilisation, %
79.0
79.8
81.4
83.0
81.3
82.9
Gas production, bn cub m
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.5
Gas consumption, bn cub m
46.2
47.5
49.0
50.5
52.1
56.4
Source: Source: EPDK, TPAO,, BMI
- 24 -
Natural Gas Consumption
Gas consumption by users (2012)
Industry 22.2%
Residential
buildings
19.6%
 The Turkish natural gas consumption in 2012
remained below the initial forecast and totalled some
45.2 bn cub m, up by 3.5 % from the previous year.
Commercial,
administrative
buildings 6.0%
Refinery 3.0%
Electricity
generation
47.8%
 Electricity generation companies are the biggest gas
consumers in Turkey. Glass, cement, ceramics
industries as well as steel production account for the
biggest share of gas usage in manufacturing sector.
Other 1.4%
Pipeline wholesale sales (2012)
 The total gas consumption was forecast at around
47.6 bn cub m in 2013. The gas consumption is seen
at 46.5 bn cub m in 2014.
Distribution
companies
30.5%
End users
59.6%
 A total 33 companies operated on the Turkish natural
gas pipeline wholesale market in 2012. State energy
company BOTAS accounted for 92% of the sales to
end users.
Wholesale
companies
9.8%
CNG
companies
0.1%
Source: EPDK
- 25 -
Natural Gas Imports
Gas imports by country (mn cub m)
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
2001
2002
2003
2004
Russia
2005
Iran
2006
Azerbaijan
2007
Algeria
2008
Nigeria
2009
2010
2011
2012
Spot
Comments
Russian gas represented 58% of the total gas imports to Turkey in 2012, unchanged from the previous year. Turkey imports Russian gas
through Bulgaria and the Blue Stream pipeline under the Black Sea.
The main supply routes for diversification are Azerbaijan and Iran. LNG imports from Algeria and Nigeria comprised 12% of total gas imports
in 2012.
Source: EPDK
- 26 -
Regional Gas Distribution
After the liberalisation of the market in 2005, the energy market regulator EPDK is responsible for gas distribution licence tenders.
Distributors
operating before
market
liberalisation
Licensed
distributors, which
have not started
gas supplies
Distributors that
started operation
after liberalisation
Source: EPDK
Copyright © 2011
2014 Internet
EMIS, allSecurities,
rights reserved.
Inc. (trading as ISI Emerging Markets), all rights reserved.
- 27 -
Distribution tenders
not held yet
Pipeline Projects
Energy hub
Aiming to strengthen its position as a regional energy hub, Turkey has joined several international projects in recent years.
BTC
The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, part of the East-West Energy Corridor, was commissioned in June 2006. It connects
the Azeri capital Baku and the Mediterranean seaport Ceyhan through Georgia. In addition to Azeri crude, the pipeline has
started pumping Kazakh and Turkmen petroleum since October 2008 and March 2010, respectively. BTC was launched with
transmission capacity of 1mn barrels per day. Daily capacity was expanded to 1.2mn barrels and is planned to reach 1.6mn
barrels/day.
South
Caucasus
The South Caucasus Pipeline, which runs parallel to BTC, was launched in July 2008. The line, also called the Baku-TbilisiErzurum Pipeline, BTE pipeline or Shah-Deniz Pipeline, is planned to carry Azeri gas to further European markets through the
interconnector between Turkey and Greece, which was put into operation in November 2007. BTE is designed to have a
capacity of up to 20 bn cub m per year.
TANAP
Trans-Anatolian natural gas pipeline project is to be built from the Turkish-Georgian border to Turkey's border with Europe. The
project is expected to cost USD 20bn and will carry 10 bn cub m of Azeri gas a year to southern Europe and will supply 6 bn
cub m of gas to Turkey. It will be 58% owned by Azerbaijan, 30% by Turkey and 12% by British Petroleum. Supplies are
expected to start from around 2019.
TAP/Nabucco
In June 2013, Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) project was officially selected as the route for the deliveries of Caspian gas to
South East over the rival project Nabucco, in which Turkey has a stake along with Bulgaria, Romania and Hungary. The 520km TAP pipeline will transport gas from the Caspian Sea through Greece, Albania, the Adriatic Sea and the Italian region of
Puglia into western Europe. The TAP pipeline will be linked to TANAP.
- 28 -
VI. M&A and Latest Developments
- 29 -
Top 20 M&A Deals in Energy Sector 2012-2013
Top 20 M&A Deals in Energy Sector
Date
Target Company
Deal Type
Stake %
Buyer
Country of Buyer
Deal Value USD
(mn)
Dec-12
Seyitomer thermal power
plant
Privatisation
100
Celikler Insaat
Turkey
Dec-12
Bogazici Elektrik Dagitim
Privatisation
100
Limak-Cengiz-Kolin Consortium
Turkey
Dec-12
Enerjisa Enerji Uretim
Acquisition
50
E.ON SE
Germany
Mar-13
Toroslar Elektrik Dagitim
Privatisation
100
Turkey
Dec-12
Gediz Elektrik Dagitim
Privatisation
100
Elsan-Tumas-Karacay Ortak Girism Grubu
Turkey
1,231
Mar-13
Istanbul Anadolu Yakasi
Privatisation
100
Turkey
1,227
Jan-13
Baskent Dogalgaz
Privatisation
100
Torunlar Gida Sanayi
Turkey
1,162
Feb-13
Kangal Thermal Power Plant
Privatisation
100
Konya Seker ; Siyahkalem Muhendislik
Turkey
Jan-12
Trakya Elektrik Dagitim
Privatisation
100
IC Ictas Holding
Turkey
Nov-13
Osmangazi Elektrik Dagitim
Acquisition
100
Polat Insaat
Turkey
Source: DealWatch
- 30 -
2,248
1,960
1,955
1,725
985
590
575
Top 20 M&A Deals in Energy Sector 2012-2013 (cont’d)
Top 20 M&A Deals in Energy Sector
Deal Type
Stake %
Nov-12
Akdeniz Elektrik Dagitim
Privatisation
100
Limak-Cengiz-Kolin
Consortium
Turkey
Mar-13
Dicle Elektrik Dagitim
Privatisation
100
Iskaya Dogu Ortak
Girisim Grubu
Turkey
May-12
Galata Wind Enerji ; Akdeniz
Elektrik Uretim
Acquisition
100
Dogan Enerji
Turkey
May-13
Aksa Enerji Uretim
Minority stake purchase
16
Institutional Investors
Mar-13
Vangolu Elektrik Dagitim
Privatisation
100
Turkerler Insaat
Turkey
118
Mar-13
Hamitabat Elektrik Uretim
Privatisation
100
Limak Holding
Turkey
105
Jul-12
Enerji Yatirim Holding
Acquisition
50
STFA Holding
Turkey
75
Jul-12
Trakya Elektrik Uretim
Acquisition
90
Inter RAO UES
Russia
Mar-13
Kapidag Ruzgar
Acquisition
93
Aksa Enerji Uretim
Turkey
Feb-13
Aksa Enerji Uretim
Minority stake purchase
3
The Goldman Sachs
Group Inc
United States
Source: DealWatch
- 31 -
Buyer
Country of Buyer
Deal Value USD
(mn)
Target Company
Date
546
387
300
216
68
67
60
Latest Developments
Kurdistan oil
In late 2013, Turkey signed and energy deal with Iraqi Kurdistan under which Kurdistan can export some 2 million barrels per
day (bpd) of oil to world markets and at least 10 bn cub m per year of gas to Turkey. Crude oil started flowing via a new pipeline
to Turkey’s Mediterranean export hub of Ceyhan in January 2014. The oil, however will not be shipped to world markets without
the consent of the Iraqi government in Baghdad. Deliveries started at 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) and could rise to 400,000.
AfsinElbistan
The Turkish government has turned to new potential investors for Afsin-Elbistan project in southeastern Turkey after Abu Dhabi
National Energy Co (TAQA) said in August 2013 that it will postpone the plans for the construction of new plants. Earlier in 2013,
TAQA agreed on a project worth up to USD 12bn to modernize and expand the existing 1.4GW coal-fired plant and to add new
capacities of up to 8,000 MW. The Afsin-Elbistan basin possesses 4.86 billion tons of coal reserves, representing 40% Turkey's lignite
resources. Turkey aims to develop its lignite resources in order to reduce its dependence on natural gas imports.
State thermal
power plants
The Privatisation Administration extend the bidding deadlines for the privatisations of thermal power plants. Investors will be
able to submit bids for Kemerkoy-Yenikoy plants, having combined capacity of 1,500 MW, by April 10. The new deadline for
the 300 MW Catalagzi plant is April 21 and offers for the 630 MW Yatagan plant will be accepted by April 30.
GDF Suez
French energy company GDF Suez plans to build a 1,320MW thermal power plant in Adana, southern Turkey, which will cost
some EUR 2bn. GDF Suez has stake in natural Turkish gas-fired Baymina and Unimar plants, which has a total capacity of
about 1,250MW. GDF also owns Turkey’s third largest natural gas distributor Izgaz. In November 2013, the Turkish energy
minister Taner Yildiz said that the French energy company plans EUR 7-8bn worth investments in Turkey.
TPAO
Turkish state oil and gas exploration company TPAO has allocated its biggest budget to date for exploration activities in 2014. It
plans to use TRY 750mn (USD 332mn) to drill 147 wells in 2014 after spending TRY 284mn (USD 125mn) on 115 wells in the
previous year.
- 32 -
VII. Main Players
- 33 -
Elektrik Üretim A.Ş. (EÜAŞ)
Financial performance
Highlights
2008
2009
2010
2011
2011
Net sales (TRY mn)
8,802
8,892
12,413
9,927
10,405
Net loss (TRY mn)
593
1,502
4,433
1,296
474
Production (GWh)
97,717
89,454
95,532
92,351
90,575
 The state-owned electricity producer EÜAŞ was
established in 2001 as part of the restructuring of the
Turkish energy industry, when it took over 15 thermal
and 107 hydropower plants.
 At the end of 2012, the company had installed
capacity of 24,774 MW. Of these, 12,213 MW was
hydropower generation capacity. EÜAŞ’ installed
capacity represented 43.4% of the total installed
capacity in Turkey at the end of 2012.
 EÜAŞ plants with a combined capacity of over 16,000
MW are slated up for privatisation. Three of these
power plants (Seyitömer, Hamitabat and Kangal with
combined capacity of 2,222 MW) were privatised in
2013.
Installed capacity by primary resources (2012)
Lignite 30.1%
 In 2012, the electric power generated by the company
reached 90,575 GWh, of which 52,264 GWh were
generated by thermal power plants.
Natural gas
16.6%
Hydraulic
49.3%
Liquid fuels
2.8%
Card coal
1.2%
 In 2012, EÜAŞ made investments of TRY 316mn
(USD 182mn), mainly in renovation, upgrade and
efficiency projects.
Source: Company data
- 34 -
Elektrik Üretim A.Ş. (EÜAŞ) (cont'd)
Generation by primary resources (2012)
Thermal power plants generation (GWh)
69,297
Lignite 33.1%
61,115
54,155
55,462
52,264
2010
2011
2012
Natural gas
22.9%
Card coal
1.6%
Liquid fuels
0.1%
Hydraulic
42.3%
2008
Hydroelectric power plants generation (GWh)
41,337
36,888
28,419
2009
Distribution of investment expenditures (2012)
Operation
Group 26%
38,311
Machinery
4.9%
Feasibilities
1.2%
28,338
Mining 21.4%
2008
2009
2010
2011
Generation
facilities
46.3%
2012
- 35 -
Vehicles 0.1%
TÜRKİYE PETROL RAFİNERİLERİ A.Ş. (TÜPRAŞ)
Financial performance (USD mn)
Highlights
26,279
24,302
 Türkiye Petrol Rafinerileri A.Ş. (TÜPRAŞ) is Turkey's
largest industrial enterprise. It operates four refineries
with combined crude processing capacity of 28.1mn
tons and is the seventh largest refiner in Europe.
2010
2011
Net sales
After-tax profit
 In 2006, the sole Turkish oil refiner was privatised by
the Koç-Shell joint venture, which paid USD 4.14bn for
a 51% stake. The remainder is publicly held.
603
753
815
1,181
1,329
740
683
830
490
17,424
2012
EBIDTA
Operating profit
 TÜPRAŞ holds 79.98% of Ditas, which has one crude
oil tanker with 164,859 DWT and four product tankers
with total 79,685 DWT.
Operational indicators (‘000 tons)
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Processed crude oil
24,208
16,975
19,552
20,896
22,118
Refining production
22,780
15,968
18,797
20,209
21,867
Sales
25,957
21,521
22,401
23,897
25,441
Exports
6,112
3,308
4,795
5,152
5,860
Imports
2,931
5,828
3,980
4,124
4,387
 The company also owns a 40% stake in fuel retailer
Opet, which has over 1,300 filling stations.
 In 2012 TÜPRAŞ had a 65% market share in
gasoline, jet fuel, diesel and fuel oil. The company’s
storage capacity represents 54% of the country’s
entire storage capacity and the figure increases to
65% if Opet's capacity is included.
- 36 -
TÜRKİYE PETROL RAFİNERİLERİ A.Ş. (TÜPRAŞ) (cont'd)
Crude oil supply (mn tons)
15.9
14.8
19.7
18.5
17.3
Crude oil value (USD bn)
14.2
10.0
6.3
2.2
2009
2.5
2010
Imports
2.4
2011
0.9
2.3
2009
2012
Production (‘000 tons)
2011
LPG
2011
1.7
2012
Domestic
Sales (‘000 tons)
Naphtha
Gasoline
Jet Fuel / Kerosene
Rural Diesel
Diesel
2011
883
198
1810
2815
78
7,793
2012
852
273
1782
3332
111
8,457
Middle Distillate
Fuel Oils
Bitumen
Base Oils
Other
10,686
1,361
2,951
380
477
11,900
1,421
2,809
266
277
2012
Gasoline & Naphtha
760
4,594
783
4,826
Jet Fuel / Kerosene
2,923
3,329
Rural Diesel
Diesel-ULSD
335
4975
388
5173
Middle Distillate
Fuel Oils
Asphalts
Base Oils
Other
8,233
3,213
2,959
399
741
8,889
3,477
2,810
266
815
LPG
2010
Imports
Domestic
1.7
1.3
- 37 -
İstanbul Gaz Dağıtım Sanayi ve Ticaret A.Ş (İGDAŞ)
Highlights
2,178
2,086
Net sales
Net profit
 İstanbul Gaz Dağıtım Sanayi ve Ticaret A.Ş. (İGDAŞ)
was founded in 1986 by the Istanbul Metropolitan
Municipality to distribute gas in the city.
35.7
154.5
2011
65.5
135.9
2010
-14.2
64.4
1,634
2012
 The company is the largest gas distributor in Turkey
and its network consists of nearly 15,500 km of
pipelines. İGDAŞ had 5.1mn subscribers and a total of
4.8mn active gas users at the end of 2012.
Operating profit/loss
Gas consumption (bn cub m)
5.37
3.99
3.83
 The company is slated for privatisation and some
twenty Turkish and international companies, including
Gazprom, Gaz de France (GDF) and Shell, have been
reportedly interested in acquiring İGDAŞ.
5.04
3.99
 İGDAŞ is Turkey's sixth largest energy company in
terms of net sales.
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
- 38 -
İstanbul Gaz Dağıtım Sanayi ve Ticaret A.Ş (İGDAŞ) (cont’d)
Pipeline network (km)
11,977
12,646
12,296
Number of service boxes
13,209
752,966
13,855
721,878
693,884
671,275
2011
1,642
1,588
1,563
1,504
1,465
2010
2010
2011
Polyethylene line
Steel line
641,699
2012
2008
2008
4,789
5,106
1,756
2009
2010
Subscribers
2011
2011
2012
1,888
2,055
2,282
2,440
2012
2008
Gas users
2010
Number of subscribers per employee
4,490
4,808
4,150
4,463
3,874
4,189
3,622
3,951
Subscribers/users (thou)
2009
- 39 -
2009
2010
2011
2012
Türkiye Petrolleri Anonim Ortaklığı (TPAO)
Highlights
3,487
3,066
1,039
1,114
714
2011
Sales revenue
 Türkiye Petrolleri Anonim Ortaklığı (TPAO) was
founded in 1954 as the sole state oil and gas sector
company.
1,094
 Today, the company is involved mainly in oil and gas
exploration and production. TPAO is active in Turkey,
Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Iraq and Libya.
2012
Operating profit
Net profit
TPAO share in oil production (2012)
 In 2012, most oil the company's international oil
production came from the Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli
project. TPAO is a shareholder with 9% in the Azeri
gas project Shah Deniz, which plans to start gas
supplies to Southern Europe as of 2019.
N.V. Turkse
Perenco
17.5%
TPAO 73.0%
 The company is also a shareholder in the Baku-TbilisiCeyhan (BTC) Crude Oil Pipeline and the South
Caucasus Natural Gas Pipeline.
Petrom
Dorchester
5.5%
Other 4.0%
- 40 -
Türkiye Petrolleri Anonim Ortaklığı (TPAO) (cont'd)
TPAO share in gas production (2012)
TGT+PIN+CB
V 21%
TPAO share in oil reserves (2012)
Amity Oil 7%
POAS 5%
Other 23.8%
Other 16%
TPAO 76.2%
TPAO 51%
TPAO shares in gas reserves (2012)
Exploration
Other 41.9%
 In recent years, TPAO has intensified exploration activities in
the Black Sea and Mediterranean offshore in cooperation with
global majors like BP, Petrobras, ExxonMobil, Chevron and
Shell.
 The company has also entered into agreement to start drilling
for oil or gas in Northern Cyprus.
TPAO 58.1%
- 41 -
Contact:
Corporate Headquarters
Nestor House
Playhouse Yard
London EC4V 5EX
UK
Voice: +44 207 779 8471
Fax: +44 207 779 8224
Asia Headquarters
Eucharistic Congress Bldg. No.
III
4th Floor, 5 Convent Street
Mumbai 400 001
India
Voice: +91 22 22881123
Fax: +91 22 22881137
Americas Headquarters
225 Park Avenue South
New York, New York 10003
US
Voice: +1 212 610 2900
Fax: +1 212 610 2950
Disclaimer:
The material is based on sources which we believe are reliable, but no warranty, either expressed or implied, is provided in relation to the accuracy or completeness
of the information. The views expressed are our best judgment as of the date of issue and are subject to change without notice. EMIS and Euromoney Institutional
Investor PLC take no responsibility for decisions made on the basis of these opinions.
Any redistribution of this information is strictly prohibited. Copyright © 2014 EMIS, all rights reserved. A Euromoney Institutional Investor company.
About EMIS Insight
EMIS Insight is a unit of EMIS that produces proprietary strategic research and analysis. The service features market overviews, industry trend analysis, legislation
and profiles of the leading sector companies provided by locally-based analysts.
About EMIS
Founded in 1994, EMIS (formerly known as ISI Emerging Markets) was acquired by Euromoney Institutional Investor PLC in 1999. EMIS works from over 15 offices
around the world to deliver electronic information products, by subscription, to institutional customers globally. EMIS provides hard-to-get information covering more
than 100 emerging markets. Its flagship products are EMIS Intelligence and EMIS Professional.
EMIS clients include top investment banks, corporations, law firms, consultants, investment and insurance companies, universities and libraries, multilateral
organizations, and others.
- 42 -

Electricity Generation Forecast

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