2013 BROWNLOW MEDAL PREVIEW

2013 BROWNLOW MEDAL PREVIEW
BY BACKPAGELEAD SPORTS OPINION WEBSITE
For most of the 2013 season the Brownlow Medal race has
felt like something of a foregone conclusion.
So incredible were Gary Ablett’s early feats it seemed
inevitable the Gold Coast maestro would receive his second
award without much competition. However, a late season
dip in form plus some rivals coming home with wet sails has
opened the field.
Collingwood’s midfield stars Dane Swan and Scott
Pendlebury are both in the mix. There is a danger they
could rob each other of votes but Swan’s a proven Brownlow
superstar and Pendlebury has enjoyed arguably the
best season of his career and has polled strongly in the
past. Geelong skipper Joel Selwood looks set to create
some excitement late in the count as he dominated the
competition in its latter stages, driving his Cats to another
finals campaign. Hawthorn’s Sam Mitchell was similarly
impressive and as the standout ball-winner of the minor
premiers he will have as many vote-winning opportunities
as anybody.
Sydney’s pair of Kieren Jack and Dan Hannebery cannot be
discounted but with a stack of other Swans excelling in 2013
there may be too many votes shared around to allow one
to leap out. Other performers to look out for include Ryan
Griffen, Michael Barlow, Patrick Dangerfield and Travis Boak.
The only potential contenders to be discounted through
collecting a suspension in 2013 are Fremantle’s Nat Fyfe
and Geelong’s Steve Johnson.As we look at the market for
this year’s Brownlow Medal and try to sort the genuine
contenders from the also-rans, here are a few historical facts
that might help you pick a winner:
1
The Brownlow has, as we know, become the Midfielders
Medal. The last non-midfielder to win was Footscray
ruckman Scott Wynd in 1992. The umpires seem to love the
flashy, high-possession players who are right under their
nose all game. Forwards don’t seem to rate a mention;
backmen less so. In the past decade, Matthew Richardson
has come closest to winning of any forward, racking up 22
votes to finish third in 2008. Lance Franklin’s best is 20
votes, Jonathan Brown’s 19, Nick Riewoldt’s 17.
THIS IS BAD NEWS FOR: Jarryd Roughead (Haw),
Nick Riewoldt (StK)
2
The Brownlow is likely to be won by a player whose team
features in the finals. It has been that way for 13 of the
last 14 years, a run started by Shane Crawford in 1999 and
ended only by Jobe Watson in 2012. In fact, in the last 22
years, the only other winner whose team finished in the
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lower half of the ladder was Sydney’s Paul Kelly in 1995.
Even in 2003 when three players shared the award – Adam
Goodes, Nathan Buckley and Mark Ricciuto - their three clubs
played in the finals.
THIS IS BAD NEWS FOR: Gary Ablett (GC), Jobe Watson
(Ess), Ryan Griffen (WB) Patrick Dangerfield (Ade)
3
The umpires clearly have their favourites, and they’re
generally the clean-cut, no whingeing, no back-chatting
types who only play the ball. Gary Ablett, for example is a
proven vote-winner, polling at least 20 votes each year since
2007. Dane Swan has received at least 20 votes in four of the
past six seasons.
THIS IS BAD NEWS FOR: Kieren Jack (0 top-10s), Daniel
Hannebery (0 x top 10), Ryan Griffen (0 x top 10).
4
As for defenders, they’ve never been on the umpires’
radar. Forget how many votes they get in the weekly
AFL Coaches’ Award; to the umpies, the backmen are next to
invisible. For example, prior to this year, Matthew Scarlett the modern game’s finest fullback - polled just one more vote
(31) in his entire career than Jobe Watson did last season.
THIS IS BAD NEWS FOR: Harry Taylor (Gee),
Pearce Hanley (Bris)
WHICH PLAYERS TICK ALL THE BOXES?
Joel Selwood (Gee), Scott Pendlebury (Coll), Dane Swan (Coll),
Sam Mitchell (Haw), Trent Cotchin (Ric),
WE THINK THE BEST CHANCES ARE:
1. G Ablett ($1.70)
2. J Selwood ($3.50)
3. S Mitchell ($21.00)
AND THE BEST EACH-WAY BETS:
1. Kieren Jack ($21.00/$6.00)
2. Travis Boak ($51.00/$13.50)
3. Jarrad McVeigh ($81.00/$21.00)
THE HALFWAY VOTING – Who’ll be leading
after round 13?
Gary Ablett is the obvious candidate to lead after the bye
rounds such was his blistering form in the opening weeks
of the season. From rounds four to 13 Ablett recorded fewer
than 30 possessions only once and was on the winning side
four times in that run.
If not the little maestro, other stars bolting out of the blocks
in 2013 included Patrick Dangerfield, who delivered a number
of eye-catching performances in the early rounds and
HOW’S YOUR FORM?
though he may not accumulate many one and two votes, there
should be a sprinkling of early threes. Daniel Hannebery also
started like a train, before he became the regular recipient of the
opposition’s best tagger. And Jobe Watson led from the front
as Essendon set the competition alight in its opening months,
a three-goal captain’s performance against Richmond in round
nine a particular standout.
CLUB BY CLUB ANALYSIS
ADELAIDE CROWS
Patrick Dangerfield should have this sewn up.
Fifth in the competition for contested possessions
per game, Dangerfield was Adelaide’s standout in 2013.
Consistent performers Rory Sloane and Richard Douglas
should pick up votes along the way but last year’s club
champion Scott Thompson had his quietest season for some
time and is unlikely to feature strongly.
Best Crow in Show: Patrick Dangerfield
Next Best: Rory Sloane
BRISBANE LIONS
Tom Rockliff ticks all the boxes to lead Brisbane’s
count. Ranking inside the top ten in the AFL for
handballs this season Rocky was influential in the midfield
in the Lions’ charge home. Pearce Hanley’s ability to drop in
an eye-catching game could see him poll well too.
The Irishman took the third most bounces per
game in the AFL this year.
Lion King: Tom Rockliff
Next Best: Pearce Hanley
CARLTON
There are no Blues in the All-Australian 40 and
there are no standout candidates for Brownlow
favouritism either. Brock McLean is likely to poll in the
most games, and Chris Judd is a vote-gathering specialist,
but Marc Murphy performed at his best when Carlton
won, indicating he may sneak in with a few three-vote
appearances in an otherwise difficult season for the young
skipper. Factor in Andrew Walker as the club’s leading
possession winner for the year and you have the most open
field of all lists.
Blue Ribbon: Brock McLean
Next Best: Chris Judd
COLLINGWOOD
This is a shootout between two Brownlow Medal
machines, Dane Swan and Scott Pendlebury. Both
averaged over 30 disposals per game, both played every
game in the year and both kicked 18 goals.
Pendlebury ranks number one in the AFL for total
effective disposals, Swan number one for total disposals.
This could go either way.
Hottest Pie: Scott Pendlebury
Next Best: Dane Swan
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ESSENDON
It will be the Jobe Watson show once again for the
Bombers with the inspirational skipper again the
high-water mark in a difficult season for his club. Watson
was dominant during the club’s powerful start to 2013 and
will poll well early. After him there’s daylight, with Dyson
Heppell, David Zaharakis and Brendon Goddard making up
the numbers.
Is Don, Is Good: Jobe Watson
Next Best: Dyson Heppell
FREMANTLE
Fremantle’s on-ball trio of Nat Fyfe, Michael
Barlow and David Mundy look well placed to poll
heavily for the impressive Dockers. Mundy and Barlow are
two of the most consistent midfielders in the game but it
may be Fyfe who tops them both with his run and carry,
which was especially prominent in Freo victories. Barlow
edges second-place by virtue of featuring in two more games
than Mundy.
Freo Way to Go: Nat Fyfe
Next Best: Michael Barlow
GEELONG CATS
Cats skipper Joel Selwood should run away with the
Geelong votes and be in with a shout of Charlie.
The tough midfielder has starred in the second half of the
season and though he may have early ground to make up
on the mercurial Steve Johnson, he should do so on the run
home. Johnson will poll plenty of three-votes this year but
only featured 16 times for the Cats, limiting his ceiling.
Top Cat: Joel Selwood
Next Best: Steve Johnson
GOLD COAST SUNS
The margin between Gold Coast’s best poller
and whoever finishes runner up is likely to be
the largest of any side this year. Gary Ablett has enjoyed
another astonishing season, racking up 30+ possessions
on 13 occasions. Dion Prestia and Jaeger O’Meara are likely
to accumulate their first votes in what promise to be
distinguished careers to back up their skipper.
Rising Sun: Gary Ablett
Next Best: Dion Prestia
GWS GIANTS
When you win only one game for the season you
have to do something remarkable to catch the eye
of the umpires and that’s exactly what young Giant Jeremy
Cameron did in 2013.
The key forward finished third in the Coleman Medal race
including one bag of seven and one of six in defeats, as well
as four in his club’s only victory of the season. Callan Ward’s
performance in that win, and an otherwise consistent year
for GWS should earn the co-captain second place.
Giant amongst men: Jeremy Cameron
Next Best: Callan Ward
HOW’S YOUR FORM?
HAWTHORN
As the side that won the most matches in 2013
Hawthorn can expect to receive plenty of love
from the umpires, the question being which players earn the
most? Sam Mitchell is the obvious place to start, by some
distance the Hawks’ leading possession winner and ranked
fourth in the AFL for effective disposals. Next would come
Coleman Medallist Jarryd Roughead who kicked bags of four
or more goals 11 times. Luke Hodge is a smokey.
Flying Hawk: Sam Mitchell
Next Best: Jarryd Roughead
MELBOURNE
Similar to GWS, when a team wins so few games
in a season, vote accumulation is likely to be
dominated by performances in the rare victories. Nathan
Jones should have done enough in the round four win over
GWS to secure the lead he deserves for being the Demons’
best in 2013 but Jack Watts played well in the round 14
victory over the Bulldogs. The winning total is likely to be so
low an unexpected bolter could trump everyone.
Dangerous Demon: Nathan Jones
Next Best: Jack Watts
NORTH MELBOURNE
North Melbourne enjoyed a range of contributors
throughout 2013 suggesting there will be no
runaway Roo. Brent Harvey should poll well but his early
hangover suspension will limit his potential.
Jack Ziebell and Drew Petrie should also figure in the
reckoning but Daniel Wells’ late run of form which saw him
included in the All-Australian 40 may make him Boomer’s
nearest rival.
King Kanga: Brent Harvey
Next Best: Daniel Wells
PORT ADELAIDE
The club captain, Travis Boak, led Port Adelaide’s
resurgence in 2013. His consistency throughout
the season, influence around the ground and ability to
impose himself on games should see him the leading
Power vote getter.
Behind him, Hamish Hartlett, Chad Wingard, Kane Cornes
and Justin Westhoff all excelled at times but Hartlett’s form
in Port’s early unbeaten run may see him sneak into
second place.
Power Lifter: Travis Boak
Next Best: Hamish Hartlett
RICHMOND
The Tigers are another club with an even
distribution of vote winners, without an obvious
standout. Trent Cotchin’s strong run home, coinciding with
Richmond dropping only three games since round nine,
should see the young skipper take club honours. Dustin
Martin’s form fluctuated but when he was on he was
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dominant, while Brett Deledio was his classy self when
allowed room to manoeuvre.
Eye of the Tiger: Trent Cotchin
Next Best: Dustin Martin
ST KILDA
The Saints have had some standout performers
in 2013, notably Nick Riewoldt, Jack Steven and
Leigh Montagna, and it will be performances in the club’s
five victories that will determine their order. This suggests a
shootout between the two midfielders with the veteran of
the pair edging favouritism with dominant displays in the
final two rounds and a few eye-catching performances in
defeat, which may sway the umpires.
The Saint: Leigh Montagna
Next Best: Jack Steven
SYDNEY SWANS
Such is Sydney’s depth the Swans are one of
the most difficult sides to predict. Kieren Jack,
Daniel Hannebery, Jarrad McVeigh and Josh Kennedy were
all consistently influential in another strong season for the
premiers. The ability of Jack and Hannebery to deliver matchwinning performances puts that pair marginally ahead, with
the co-captain taking the honours thanks to his teammate
receiving a hard tag for much of the season. In a rounded
campaign Jack ranked first in the AFL for goal assists and
inside-50s as well as third for tackles.
Royal Swan: Kieren Jack
Next Best: Daniel Hannebery
WEST COAST EAGLES
Workhorse midfielder Matt Priddis should be the
top Eagle following a difficult year for West Coast.
Priddis finished in the top-ten in the AFL for clearances,
contested possessions, tackles and handballs in another
industrious year. Injuries to team-mates means picking
behind Priddis is tough but Josh Kennedy’s goals, acquired
with 10 hauls of four or more, should see the key target poll
frequently.
Golden Eagle: Matt Priddis
Next Best: Josh Kennedy
WESTERN BULLDOGS
This is a straight head-to-head between two
midfielders. Ryan Griffen averaged 29 disposals
and five tackles per game in a year in which he cemented
himself in the elite bracket of the AFL. Tom Liberatore
overcame a disappointing end to 2012 to become a clearance
machine, not to mention a star contested possession winner
and tackler. Griffen takes favouritism, and is a run at the
main prize, thanks to his clean, unobtrusive way of going
about his business. Standout performances in victories over
Carlton and Port Adelaide will help too.
Top Dog: Ryan Griffen
Next Best: Tom Liberatore
HOW’S YOUR FORM?