Retail Market Demand and Impact

Transcription

Retail Market Demand and Impact Analysis
County Road 2 (White Lake Road)
Town of Arnprior, ON
Prepared for: White Lake Road Investments Ltd.
August 2008
TATE ECONOMIC RESEARCH INC.
Mr. Michael Michaud
White Lake Road Investments Ltd.
Land Development Manager
2705 Queensview Drive
Ottawa, ON, K2B 8K2
August 29, 2008
Re:
Retail Market Demand and Impact Analysis
Town of Arnprior
Dear Mr. Michaud:
Tate Economic Research Inc. is pleased to submit our report that examines the
market demand and potential impacts of a 250,000 square foot retail centre
anchored by a department store and a potential relocated and expanded
Canadian Tire in the Town of Arnprior.
It is the professional opinion of Tate Economic Research Inc. that the proposed
retail development should be approved on the basis of market demand and
impact.
Thank you for the opportunity to conduct this assignment on your behalf and we
look forward to discussing these results with you.
Yours truly,
James P. Tate
President
212 King Street, Suite 202, Toronto, Ontario M5H 1K5
Tel: 416-260-9884 Fax: 416-260-0311
Town of Arnprior – Retail Market Demand and Impact Analysis
Table of Contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................................................ I
1
INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
2
REVIEW OF SITE AND SURROUNDINGS .......................................................................................5
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
3
NFOR EXPENDITURE POTENTIAL .................................................................................................14
FOOD ORIENTED RETAIL (FOR) EXPENDITURE POTENTIAL ..................................................15
7.1
8
STUDY YEARS .............................................................................................................................13
POPULATION FORECAST...............................................................................................................13
POPULATION LEVELS CONCLUSION ...............................................................................................13
NON FOOD ORIENTED RETAIL (NFOR) EXPENDITURE POTENTIAL.......................................14
6.1
7
INVENTORY OF COMMERCIAL RETAIL SPACE IN THE PRIMARY ZONE ...............................................10
DEPARTMENT STORE COMPETITION IN THE STUDY AREA ...............................................................11
SUPERMARKET COMPETITION IN THE STUDY AREA ........................................................................11
GENERAL MERCHANDISE COMPETITION IN THE PRIMARY ZONE ......................................................12
OTHER NFOR COMPETITION IN THE PRIMARY ZONE .....................................................................12
PROPOSED COMPETITION IN THE PRIMARY ZONE ..........................................................................12
INVENTORY OF RETAIL SPACE CONCLUSIONS ................................................................................12
POPULATION LEVELS ...................................................................................................................13
5.1
5.2
5.3
6
DEFINITION OF THE TERM “STUDY AREA” ........................................................................................7
LICENCE PLATE SURVEY ................................................................................................................7
THE DELINEATED STUDY AREA .......................................................................................................8
LICENCE PLATE SURVEY RESULTS .................................................................................................9
STUDY AREA CONCLUSION .............................................................................................................9
INVENTORY OF RETAIL SPACE ...................................................................................................10
4.1
4.2
4.3
4.4
4.5
4.6
4.7
5
THE SITE DESCRIPTION, LOCATION AND LOCAL ROAD NETWORK .....................................................5
THE DEVELOPMENT CONCEPT PLAN AND SITE ACCESSIBILITY .........................................................5
SURROUNDING LAND USES ............................................................................................................5
SITE AND SURROUNDINGS CONCLUSION .........................................................................................6
STUDY AREA ....................................................................................................................................7
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.5
4
BACKGROUND ...............................................................................................................................1
THE ARNPRIOR OP MARKET IMPACT TEST......................................................................................2
STUDY APPROACH .........................................................................................................................2
STUDY YEARS ...............................................................................................................................3
FOR EXPENDITURE POTENTIAL....................................................................................................15
DEPARTMENT STORE - NFOR COMPONENT MARKET DEMAND AND
IMPACT ANALYSIS.........................................................................................................................16
8.1
8.2
8.3
8.4
DEPARTMENT STORE SHARE OF TOTAL NFOR EXPENDITURES .....................................................16
DEPARTMENT STORE - NFOR COMPONENT MARKET DEMAND ANALYSIS ......................................16
DEPARTMENT STORE - NFOR COMPONENT MARKET IMPACT ANALYSIS ........................................17
DEPARTMENT STORE - NFOR COMPONENT MARKET DEMAND AND
IMPACT ANALYSIS CONCLUSIONS..................................................................................................17
9
DEPARTMENT STORE - FOR COMPONENT MARKET DEMAND AND
IMPACT ANALYSIS MARKET ........................................................................................................18
9.1
9.2
9.3
9.4
10
10.1
10.2
10.3
10.4
11
11.1
11.2
11.3
11.4
SUPERMARKET SHARES OF TOTAL FOR EXPENDITURES ...............................................................18
DEPARTMENT STORE - FOR COMPONENT MARKET DEMAND ANALYSIS .........................................18
DEPARTMENT STORE - FOR COMPONENT MARKET IMPACT ANALYSIS ...........................................19
DEPARTMENT STORE - FOR COMPONENT MARKET DEMAND AND
IMPACT ANALYSIS CONCLUSION ...................................................................................................20
GENERAL MERCHANDISE DEMAND AND IMPACT ANALYSIS.............................................21
GENERAL MERCHANDISE SHARE OF TOTAL NFOR EXPENDITURES ............................................21
GENERAL MERCHANDISE MARKET DEMAND ANALYSIS ...............................................................21
GENERAL MERCHANDISE MARKET IMPACT ANALYSIS .................................................................23
GENERAL MERCHANDISE DEMAND AND IMPACT ANALYSIS CONCLUSIONS ...................................23
OTHER NFOR MARKET DEMAND AND IMPACT ANALYSIS ..................................................24
OTHER NFOR SHARE OF TOTAL NFOR EXPENDITURES ...........................................................24
OTHER NFOR MARKET DEMAND ANALYSIS ..............................................................................25
OTHER NFOR MARKET IMPACT ANALYSIS ................................................................................26
OTHER NFOR MARKET DEMAND AND IMPACT ANALYSIS CONCLUSION .......................................26
APPENDIX A – INVENTORY OF COMPETITIVE RETAIL SPACE..................................................... A-1
APPENDIX B – LICENCE PLATE SURVEY ........................................................................................ B-1
APPENDIX C – STUDY AREA IN-HOME CONSUMER SURVEY RESULTS..................................... C-1
APPENDIX D – BASIC ASSUMPTIONS AND DEFINITION OF TERMS ............................................ D-1
Executive Summary
Tate Economic Research Inc. (TER) was retained by White
Lake Road Investments Ltd. (the “Developer”) to investigate
the retail market demand and impact implications of
developing approximately 250,000 square feet of retail space
on a 34.3 acre site situated on the south side of County Road
2 (White Lake Road) west of Highway 17. The Developer
proposes that the retail development (Subject Development or
Site) will be anchored by a department store and a relocated
and expanded Canadian Tire store. The remainder of the
centre will be comprised of ancillary retail and service uses.
The following chart summarizes the approximate distribution of space proposed for the
Subject Development.
SUBJECT DEVELOPMENT
Department Store
Canadian Tire
Ancillary Retail Space
Ancillary Service Space
Total Proposed Development
Square Feet
125,000
50,000
50,000
25,000
250,000
Background
The Town of Arnprior currently has no department store. In addition the Canadian
Tire location is an older format store. As a result, residents have to make shopping
trips to other locations, such as Renfrew or Ottawa, to fulfil many of their comparison
shopping goods needs. A national department store has expressed an interest in
operating a store on the Site.
The Site is presently designated Highway Commercial – Exception Two in the Town of
Arnprior Official Plan (Arnprior OP) and zoned as Highway Commercial – Exception
Four in the Town of Arnprior Zoning By-Law No 4990-20011. A department store, as
well as the other proposed commercial retail uses proposed by the Developer, is not
permitted under the existing Site permissions. The Developer is seeking an
amendment of the Arnprior OP to redesignate the Site for Shopping Centre
Commercial uses and a rezoning to Shopping Centre Commercial (SC) Zone in order
to permit the Subject Development.
1
Note: The policies relating to Exception Two of the Arnprior OP and Exception Four of the Arnprior
Zoning By-Law are site specific permissions for golf course and golf driving range uses in addition to
other permitted uses under the Highway Commercial designation and zoning.
i
Summary of Findings
There are currently no department stores in the Study Area.
•
The closest department stores are located in Renfrew, Carleton Place or
Ottawa approximately 25-45 kilometres from Arnprior.
•
A new department store will provide local consumers with access to a new
format of retail currently unavailable in the marketplace.
The existing Arnprior Canadian Tire is an older format store and undersized for
the market.
•
The Arnprior Canadian Tire store was established in the 1970s. However a
significant portion of shoppers from Arnprior and the surrounding areas are
shopping at other Canadian Tire locations elsewhere.
The proposed new retail centre will contribute to modernizing the supply of
commercial space in Arnprior and will strengthen the attraction of Arnprior as a
retail destination.
•
Communities such as Renfrew, Carleton Place or Ottawa have several newer,
modern format, stores offering expanded merchandise lines. Study Area
residents are making shopping trips to these other locations to fulfil many of
their comparison shopping goods needs.
The Site is suitable for the development of a 250,000 square foot shopping
centre.
•
The Site is already designated and zoned for commercial uses and will
complement the existing commercial uses established along Daniel Street to
the east as well as other land uses in the surrounding area.
The planned extension of Highway 417 and the addition of a new highway
interchange at White Lake Road will provide greater exposure and accessibility
to the Site.
•
The Site’s location provides exposure to traffic travelling along the Highway
417/17 Trans-Canada Highway corridor and is easily accessible to both local
residents and pass-by traffic.
ii
Population and expenditure growth is forecast to increase throughout the Study
Area and will continue beyond the study period.
•
The Study Area is forecast to experience an increase in population from 30,170
in 2007 to 34,960 by 2017. This forecast growth will create demand for
additional retail and service space in the market.
There is sufficient market demand to warrant the development of the proposed
125,000 square foot department store including a food/grocery store component
of approximately 35,000 square feet in Arnprior.
•
The TER analysis demonstrates that there is market demand for the proposed
department store with an expanded food component.
•
The proposed new department store will satisfy a gap in the market and will
result in the recapture of a significant portion of expenditures currently leaving
the market.
•
The food/grocery store component will provide local residents with another
supermarket option in the market.
There is sufficient market demand to warrant the relocation and expansion of
the Arnprior Canadian Tire store to a 50,000 square foot new format store on the
Site.
•
The introduction of a new format Canadian Tire store in Arnprior will result in
the recapture of local expenditures leaving the market and will contribute to the
attractiveness of Arnprior as a retail destination.
•
The relocation of the Canadian Tire to the Site, approximately 1.4 kilometres to
the west of its current location, will not negatively influence the continued
viability of other businesses situated along Daniel Street or in the Arnprior
Downtown Core.
The proposed 75,000 square foot ancillary retail and service component will
increase the supply of commercial retail and service space options in the
market and will contribute to modernizing the supply of commercial space
available in Arnprior.
•
There is sufficient demand to phase in the development of 50,000 square feet
of ancillary retail and 25,000 square feet of ancillary service space on the Site
over the study period. This space is in addition to other ancillary retail space
proposed in the market.
iii
•
It is our professional opinion that this proposed new ancillary space will
recapture a portion of Study Area residents’ expenditures currently leaving the
market.
Conclusion
It is the professional opinion of Tate Economic Research Inc. that the proposed
development of a 250,000 square foot retail centre anchored by a department
store and a relocated and expanded Canadian Tire on the White Lake Road
Investments Ltd. Site is warranted on the basis of market demand and impact.
This development will satisfy a gap in the market and will result in the recapture
of expenditures that are presenting leaving the market.
It is the professional opinion of Tate Economic Research Inc. that “the viability
of the proposed retail development does not depend on the detrimental transfer
of sales from existing businesses and that there will be no adverse impacts
which compromise the viability of existing retail businesses.” Therefore, it is
the opinion of Tate Economic Research Inc. that the OPA and rezoning
proposed by White Lake Road Investments Ltd. be approved, with respect to
market demand and impact.
iv
1 Introduction
Tate Economic Research Inc. (TER) was retained by White
Lake Road Investments Ltd. (the “Developer”) to investigate
the retail market demand and impact implications of
developing approximately 250,000 square feet of retail space
on a 34.3 acre site situated on the south side of County Road
2 (White Lake Road) west of Highway 17. The Developer
proposes that the retail development (Subject Development or
Site) will be anchored by a department store and a relocated
and expanded Canadian Tire store. The remainder of the
centre will be comprised of ancillary retail and service uses.
The following chart summarizes the approximate distribution of space proposed for the
SUBJECT DEVELOPMENT
Department Store
Canadian Tire
Ancillary Retail Space
Ancillary Service Space
Total Proposed Development
1.1
Square Feet
125,000
50,000
50,000
25,000
250,000
Background
The Site is designated Highway Commercial – Exception Two in the Town of Arnprior
Official Plan (Arnprior OP) and zoned as Highway Commercial – Exception Four in the
Town of Arnprior Zoning By-Law No 4990-20012. A department store, as well as the
other proposed commercial retail uses proposed by the Developer, is not permitted
under the existing Site permissions. The Developer is seeking an amendment of the
Arnprior OP to redesignate the Site for Shopping Centre Commercial uses and a
rezoning to Shopping Centre Commercial (SC) Zone in order to permit the Subject
Development.
TER has been instructed by the Developer to evaluate the anticipated market demand
and impact of a 125,000 square foot department store with a food/grocery store
component of approximately 35,000 square feet. In addition, TER has also been
instructed to evaluate the opportunity for a relocated and expanded Canadian Tire on
the Site.
2
Note: The policies relating to Exception Two of the Arnprior OP and Exception Four of the Arnprior
Zoning By-Law are site specific permissions for golf course and golf driving range uses in addition to
other permitted uses under the Highway Commercial designation and zoning.
1
1.2
The Arnprior OP Market Impact Test
Section 5.3, policy (6) of the Arnprior OP states, “New shopping centres shall only be
permitted by amendment to this Plan. Any amendment submitted must be supported
by a retail and impact analysis”. However, this policy does not define a specific
‘market test’ which a retail and impact analysis is to address.
TER has been instructed by Arnprior planning staff to follow the guidelines of the
market test defined under section 3.3 Mixed Use Commercial policy (7) of the Arnprior
OP which states:
“The study would have to demonstrate that the viability of the proposed retail
development does not depend on the detrimental transfer of sales from existing
businesses and that there will be no adverse impacts which comprise the viability of
existing retail businesses.”
TER’s market demand and impact analysis has been designed to address this
Arnprior OP policy. However, in TER’s opinion, the application of the above market
test, in terms of evaluating “detrimental transfers of sales” and “adverse impacts” is a
more conservative approach to evaluating the Subject Development than may be
required under Section 5.3 policy (6) of the Arnprior OP.
1.3
Study Approach
TER’s work plan is based on primary research, consumer research, field inspections
and a detailed market demand and impact analysis. The study approach is outlined
below in greater detail:
•
Review of Site and Surroundings – TER reviewed the Site in terms of its
accessibility, visibility, synergies with other uses, etc. This review concluded
with commentary regarding the appropriateness of the site for the proposed
•
Licence Plate Surveys – TER designed a licence plate survey of vehicles at
Arnprior Shopping Centre (anchored by an A&P supermarket and a Hart
general merchandise store) and in the parking area of the No Frills
supermarket anchoring Winners Circle in the Town of Arnprior (see Appendix
B). This research was conducted in order to gather information relating to the
current distribution and the draw of major retailers in the vicinity of the Site.
This information, in turn, assisted TER in delineating the Study Area for the
proposed Subject Development.
•
Study Area Delineation – Based on the results of the licence plate survey and
TER’s professional judgement, a Study Area for the proposed Subject
Development was delineated. This Study Area was further subdivided into a
2
Primary Zone and two Secondary Zones, allowing for a greater level of detail in
our analysis.
•
Inventory of Competitive Retail/Service Space – TER’s research included a
complete inventory of all retail and service space in the Primary Zone
(comprised of the Town of Arnprior and a portion of McNab/Braeside). This
information was incorporated into our analyses (see Appendix A for a summary
of the inventory and maps).
•
In-Home Consumer Telephone Survey – An in-home consumer telephone
survey of approximately 600 Study Area residents was conducted (see
Appendix C). This survey determined current expenditure patterns of Study
Area residents as they relate to major retail store categories.
•
Population and Expenditure Forecast – Based on the Census of Canada, and
population forecast data for the Town of Arnprior and surrounding
municipalities comprising the Study Area, TER forecast population levels from
2007 to 2017. Based primarily on Census and Statistics Canada information,
Non Food Oriented Retail (NFOR) and Food Oriented Retail (FOR)
expenditure volumes were forecast over this study period.
•
Market Demand Analysis – Based on existing and anticipated shopping
patterns identified from the in-home consumer telephone survey and the
expenditure volumes determined above, TER forecast the demand for a
department store with a food/grocery component, a relocated and expanded
Canadian Tire store and other ancillary non food oriented retail space
comprising the proposed Subject Development.
•
Impact Analysis – TER forecast the impact of the proposed Subject
Development on the existing retail businesses in the Primary Zone.
This work plan has assisted TER in developing our professional opinion regarding the
market demand and impact implications of the proposed Subject Development.
1.4
Study Years
TER has assumed the year 2007 as the base year for the calculation of per capita
expenditure volumes and population levels in this analysis. For the purposes of our
analysis, TER has also assumed that the Subject Development will be developed over
two phases.
Phase 1 is assumed to be in operation before the end of 2010 and will include the
department store, the relocated and expanded Canadian Tire store and approximately
3
25,000 square feet of ancillary Other NFOR3 space. In addition, TER has also
recognized the operation of other retail developments proposed in the market at this
time. TER has analysed the first full year of operation of this entire space in 2011.
Phase 2 of the Subject Development will consist an additional 25,000 square feet of
ancillary Other NFOR space and 25,000 square feet of ancillary service space. TER
has analysed the first full year of operation of this phase in 2013. In addition, TER has
also recognized the retenanting of the existing Arnprior Canadian Tire store in 2013.
In order to test the longer term market conditions in the Study Area, TER has also
analysed the years 2015 and 2017.
3
For the purpose of this analysis “Other NFOR” is defined as total NFOR, less department stores, and
general merchandise expenditures.
4
SITE AND ACCESS
Arnprior Shopping
Centre
Winners
Circle
Service Station
Truck Stop &
Resturant
Subject
Site
Airport
2 Review of Site and Surroundings
From the perspective of market demand, TER reviewed the Site in terms of its access,
visibility, surrounding land uses and the road and transportation network in the vicinity
of the Site. It is the purpose of this section of the report to determine the suitability of
the Site for ‘Shopping Centre Commercial’ uses, as proposed.
2.1
The Site Description, Location and Local Road Network
The Site is situated on the west side of the Town of Arnprior, west of where Highway
417 presently transitions into Highway 17. Highway 417/17 is part of the TransCanada Highway corridor and function as the primary transportation route between
Ottawa and communities in Northern Ontario. An extension of Highway 417 to the
north of Arnprior is scheduled to begin in 2011. A new highway interchange with
White Lake Road to the east of the Site will be added. The Site is visible from traffic
travelling along this major transportation corridor.
The location of the Site is indicated on the aerial photo shown opposite. The Site is
approximately 34.3 acres and situated on the east corner of County Road 2 (White
Lake Road) and Van Dusen Drive in Arnprior. The Site is designated and zoned for
Highway Commercial uses, a portion of which is occupied by an outdoor Golf Centre.
The Site has frontage along both White Lake Road and Van Dusen Drive. White Lake
Road is currently a two-lane highway that turns into Daniel Street at its intersection
with Baskin Drive to the east of the Site. Daniel Street is the primary transportation
route into downtown Arnprior from the west and contains the majority of the Town’s
larger commercial businesses.
2.2
The Development Concept Plan and Site Accessibility
The Developer is proposing to develop these lands as a 250,000 square foot shopping
centre anchored by a department store and a relocated and expanded Canadian Tire.
The remainder of the shopping centre will be tenanted with approximately 75,000
square feet of ancillary retail and service uses. The concept plan, which follows,
shows the design and site features of the proposed Subject Development.
The Subject Development will be accessible by six ingress/egress points along the
perimeter of the Site shown on the concept plan. A traffic signal is proposed for the
intersection of Vanjumar Road and White Lake Road.
2.3
Surrounding Land Uses
There are a variety of land uses that surround the Site. These uses are outlined
below:
5
DEVELOPMENT CONCEPT PLAN
•
To the North and Northwest: of the Site is White Lake Road. A service
station operated by W.O. Stinson and Son Ltd. occupies the north corner of
Vanjumar Road and White Lake Road opposite the Site. This service centre is
surrounded by vacant rural land further to the north.
Single detached homes are situated on the west side of White Lake Road as
well as along Campbell Drive opposite the Site. These homes are also
surrounded by vacant rural land and agricultural uses to the west and
northwest. Further to the northwest is the Township of McNab/Braeside.
•
To the northeast: adjacent to the Site is the Antrim Truck Stop and
Restaurant. This business occupies the property on the south corner of the
intersection of White Lake Road and Highway 17.
Further to the northeast, along Daniel Street, are Arnprior’s two largest retail
shopping centres, Winners Circle (anchored by a No Frills supermarket) and
Arnprior Shopping Centre (anchored by an A&P Supermarket and a Hart
general merchandise store). In addition, many of Arnprior’s largest retailers,
including the current Arnprior Canadian Tire store, TSC, Home Hardware and
Rexall drugs, are also located along this section of Daniel Street. For the
purpose of the analysis presented in this report, TER has defined this
commercial area as the Daniel Street Commercial Area in order to distinguish
its retail and service uses from other established retail and service uses located
in the Downtown Core.
2.4
•
To the East and Southeast: of the Site is the Arnprior/South Renfrew
Municipal Airport. A small industrial park including a former Federal
government services training campus, now vacant, occupies the lands along
Baskin Drive on the east side of the Airport. Further east is Lake Madawaska
and Highway 417/17.
•
To the West and South west of the Site is farmland and Lake Madawaska.
Site and Surroundings Conclusion
The Site is an appropriate location for the development of a 250,000 square foot
shopping centre anchored by a department store and a relocated and expanded
Canadian Tire store. The Site’s location provides exposure to traffic travelling along
the Highway 417/17 Trans-Canada Highway corridor and is easily accessible to both
local residents and pass-by traffic. The extension of Highway 417 to the north of
Arnprior and the new highway interchange planned for White Lake Road will provide
greater accessibility and exposure to the Site for traffic derived from throughout the
Region and beyond. Furthermore, the Site is already designated and zoned for
commercial uses and will complement the existing commercial uses established along
Daniel Street to the east as well as other land uses in the surrounding area.
6
3 Study Area
The total market influence attributable to a shopping centre or to major retailers often
extends over a wide geographic area and it may be difficult to define with an absolute
degree of certainty. However, TER has defined a Study Area for the purposes of
making estimates of the market demand and potential impacts of the proposed
Subject Development. This section of the report discusses the extent of this Study
Area and the primary inputs into its delineation.
3.1
Definition of the Term “Study Area”
The Study Area, as defined by TER in this report, refers to the geographic area from
which the proposed Subject Development is expected to derive the majority of its
sales support. In general terms, this Study Area recognizes a number of factors,
including:
•
The access and visibility of the Site and the proposed uses;
•
The size and type of stores proposed;
•
The results of the licence plate survey conducted at Arnprior Shopping Centre
(anchored by an A&P supermarket and a Hart general merchandise store) and
in the parking area of the No Frills supermarket anchoring Winners Circle in
Arnprior;
•
Previous empirical research completed by TER in the market;
•
Physical and political boundaries, such as the Ottawa River;
•
The locations of other department stores, Canadian Tire stores, and major retail
concentrations in other communities that surround Arnprior;
•
Travel distance and driving times; and,
•
The professional experience of TER.
In addition to the market support from residents within the delineated Study Area, it is
typical that a portion of sales support for this, or any, retail project would be generated
from customers living beyond the borders of the Study Area. These potential
customers have been recognized in the analysis that follows as “inflow”.
3.2
Licence Plate Survey
A survey of vehicle licence plates was undertaken at Arnprior Shopping Centre
(anchored by an A&P supermarket and a Hart general merchandise store) and in the
7
STUDY AREA
ARNPRIOR
McNAB /
BRAESIDE
OTTAWA
MISSISSIPPI
MILLS
GREATER
MADAWASKA
LANARK
HIGHLANDS
County Rd 9
Primary Zone
Secondary Zone West
Secondary Zone East
Subject Site
parking area of the No Frills supermarket anchoring Winners Circle in Arnprior over
the period of January 31 - February 2, 2008. This survey is described in greater detail
in Appendix B. The results of the licence plate survey provided information relating to
the current distribution and the draw of major retailers in the vicinity of the Site and
assisted TER in determining the Study Area for the proposed Subject Development.
The recorded vehicle plate numbers were sent to the Ministry of Transportation for
conversion into locational data known by Statistics Canada as Dissemination Area
codes. This information was plotted on a map by TER and was incorporated into our
Study Area delineation and determination of inflow levels.
3.3
The Delineated Study Area
The Study Area, illustrated opposite, consists of three zones, described as follows:
•
Primary Zone – This zone consists of the area comprising the Town of Arnprior
and a portion of the Township of McNab/Braeside southeast of Neilson Street.
•
Secondary Zone West – Generally, this zone consists of portions of the
following surrounding local municipalities:
o The Township of Greater Madawaska southeast of County Road 508
(Calabogie Road);
o The Township of McNab/Braeside4 southeast of County Road 54
(McLean Drive) and Golf Club Road;
o Lanark County north of the Clyde River and County Road 9 (Tatlock
Road);
o The Town of Mississippi Mills north of County Road 9 (Tatlock Rd),
Bellamy Mills Road, Beannies Corners Road, Blakeney Road and Rural
Road 46 (Panmure Road); and
o The City of Ottawa west of Highway 417; and north of the Clyde River,
County Road 9 and Rural Road 46 (Panmure Road).
•
Secondary Zone East – This zone consists of the rural portion of the City of
Ottawa east of Highway 417; and north of Rural Road 46 (Panmure Road/
Thomas A. Dolan Parkway).
4
The Secondary Zone West boundary excludes the portion of the Township of McNab/Braeside
southeast of Neilson Street as described in the delineation of the Primary Zone boundary.
8
3.4
Licence Plate Survey Results
The results of the
licence plate survey
are summarized in the
chart opposite. The
chart identifies the
percentage of
customers that
originate from the
three Study Area
zones, as well as
outside of the Study
Area. As stated above
in Section 3.2, greater
detail is provided in
Appendix B.
SUMMARY OF LICENCE PLATE SURVEY RESULTS
No Frills
Winners
Circle
Arnprior
Shopping
Centre
Total
Primary Zone
Secondary Zone West
Secondary Zone East
Total Study Area
51.6%
21.4%
12.7%
85.7%
54.9%
19.0%
8.9%
82.8%
53.3%
20.2%
10.8%
84.3%
Quebec
Other
Total
0.2%
14.1%
14.3%
0.0%
17.2%
17.2%
0.1%
15.6%
15.7%
Total Surveys Returned
100%
100%
100.0%
The chart demonstrates the current distribution and the draw of major retailers in the
vicinity of the Site. As shown in the chart, the Study Area accounts for 84.3% of
shoppers at the various licence plate survey locations.
3.5
Study Area Conclusion
This Study Area represents the geographic boundary from which the proposed
Subject Development is expected to receive the majority of its sales support.
9
TABLE 1
TOWN OF ARNPRIOR RETAIL MARKET DEMAND AND IMPACT ANALYSIS
SUMMARY OF PRIMARY ZONE COMPETITIVE RETAIL AND SERVICE SPACE
Nodes
(1
Downtown
Core
Daniel Street
Corridor
Arnprior
Shopping
Centre
1
2
3
Winners
Circle
Sub Total
Daniel Street
Commercial
Area (2
4
2-4
Madawaska
Boulevard - Other Arnprior
East of River West of River
5
6
TOTAL
PRIMARY
ZONE
1-6
Food Oriented Retail (FOR)
Supermarkets
Other Food
Sub-Total Food Oriented Retail (FOR)
0
0
33,200
23,100
56,300
0
0
56,300
8,400
3,500
0
0
3,500
1,700
800
14,400
8,400
3,500
33,200
23,100
59,800
1,700
800
70,700
Non Food Oriented Retail (NFOR)
Department Stores
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
General Merchandise
15,400
21,000
42,900
0
63,900
0
0
79,300
Clothing & Accessories
16,600
0
20,700
0
20,700
0
0
37,300
9,400
0
4,100
0
4,100
7,000
0
20,500
19,400
12,500
1,700
1,700
15,900
0
0
35,300
110,100
Furniture, Home Furnishings & Electronics
Pharmacies & Personal Care Stores
Building & Outdoor Home Supplies
Miscellaneous Retailers
Sub-Total Non Food Oriented Retail (NFOR)
6,900
40,200
0
0
40,200
59,100
3,900
37,700
0
2,900
3,500
6,400
0
3,700
47,800
105,400
73,700
72,300
5,200
151,200
66,100
7,600
330,300
Other Retail & Service Space
Liquor / Beer / Wine
0
7,200
0
0
7,200
4,600
0
11,800
Food Services
15,700
13,600
5,000
7,000
25,600
19,400
5,900
66,600
Personal Services
19,500
1,200
2,900
0
4,100
600
500
24,700
Financial and Real Estate Services
28,300
7,800
4,100
0
11,900
7,800
900
48,900
105,000
16,600
6,100
1,500
24,200
24,900
10,200
164,300
Sub-Total Other Retail & Service Space
Other Services
168,500
46,400
18,100
8,500
73,000
57,300
17,500
316,300
Total Occupied Space
282,300
123,600
123,600
36,800
284,000
125,100
25,900
717,300
Vacant
37,700
2,900
6,200
6,000
15,100
5,400
0
58,200
Vacancy Rate (%)
11.8%
2.3%
4.8%
14.0%
5.0%
4.1%
0.0%
7.5%
320,000
126,500
129,800
42,800
299,100
130,500
25,900
775,500
Grand Total
Source: TATE ECONOMIC RESEARCH INC.
Based on an inventory conducted by TER in January 2008. All measurements are rounded to the nearest 100 square feet.
For the purpose of this analysis, TER defines the 'Daniel Street Commercial Area' to be comprised of the following retail nodes: Daniel Street Corridor, Arnprior Shopping
Centre and Winners Circle.
1)
2)
4 Inventory of Retail Space
An inventory of all commercial retail and service space in the Primary Zone was
undertaken as a component of this study. This inventory was conducted by TER in
January 2008. Appendix A provides a summary of all retail and service uses by
commercial node in the Primary Zone. Also included in this appendix are maps
showing the location of supermarkets and Canadian Tire stores in the Study Area and
in the surrounding vicinity as well as the location of department store surrounding the
Study Area.
4.1
Inventory of Commercial Retail Space in the Primary Zone
Table 1, opposite and the map that follows, summarizes the results of the Primary
Zone inventory. The existing space identified can be summarised as follows:
•
Overall, there is approximately 775,500 square feet of retail and service space
in the Primary Zone. Food Oriented Retail (FOR) and Non Food Oriented
Retail (NFOR) space accounts for approximately 401,000 square feet or 51.7%
of space in the Primary Zone. The remainder of this space is occupied with
service uses or is vacant.
•
The majority of commercial retail and service space in Arnprior is older and
unsuitable for many new format store designs operated by chain retailers.
•
Several national chain retailers, such as Canadian Tire, are operating older
format stores in this market which are less attractive to customers when
compared to competing stores in other retail locations outside the Study Area.
•
There are three established commercial areas in Arnprior which comprise
approximately 96.7% of all competitive space in the Primary Zone. These
areas consist of the following:
Commercial Area
Downtown Core
Daniel Street Commercial Area
Madawaska Street - East of the River
Other Primary Zone
Total
Space
Square Feet
320,000
299,100
130,500
25,900
775,500
Note: TER defines the Daniel Street Commercial Area to be
comprised of the following nodes, Daniel Street Corridor,
Arnprior Shopping Centre, and Winners Circle.
•
The Downtown Core consists mainly of smaller commercial units tenanted with
independently owned and operated businesses. With the exception of Giant
10
PRIMARY ZONE RETAIL NODES
1)
2)
3)
4)
5)
6)
Downtown Core
Daniel Street Corridor
Arnprior Shopping Centre
Winners Circle
Madawaska Boulevard, East of River
Other Arnprior, West of River
1
5
6
2
3
4
Subject
Site
NOTE: For the purpose of this analysis, TER defines the ‘Daniel Street Commercial Area’ to be comprised of the following
retail nodes Daniel Street Corridor, Arnprior Shopping Centre and Winners Circle.
Tiger (11,200 square feet) and Shoppers Drug Mart (18,000 square feet)
approximately 90.0% of businesses occupying space in the Downtown Core,
are in units less than the size of 4,000 square feet.
4.2
•
The majority of the Primary Zone’s larger format retailers and automotive
oriented shopping centres are located in the Daniel Street Commercial Area,
situated to the west of the Downtown Core. This area includes Arnprior
Shopping Centre and Winners Circle as well as several larger format retailers
such as Canadian Tire, TSC, Home Hardware and Rexall. The Subject
Development would complement this commercial area and contribute to the
customer draw of this area.
•
Madawaska Street – East of the River is comprised mainly of Highway
Commercial service uses.
•
The vacancy rate in the Primary Zone is approximately 7.5%. It is TER’s
opinion that an average vacancy level between 5.0% and 7.5% is normal and
indicative of competitive market conditions.
Department Store Competition in the Study Area
There are no department stores in the Study Area. The closest department stores are
located in Renfrew, Carleton Place or Ottawa approximately 25-45 kilometres from
Arnprior. Study Area residents have to make shopping trips to these other locations to
fulfil many of their comparison shopping goods needs (See Appendix A for a map of
department store locations surrounding the Study Area).
4.3
Supermarket Competition in the Study Area
There are two supermarkets (A&P and No Frills) operating in the Study Area, totalling
approximately 56,300 square feet. Both of these stores are located in the Daniel
Street Commercial Area. There are no supermarkets operating in the Arnprior
Downtown Core or in the Secondary Zones of the Study Area. Appendix A provides a
map showing the locations of the nearest supermarket surrounding the Study Area.
TER would note that a Loeb supermarket formerly operated in the Downtown Core.
This store closed as a result of a business consolidation decision made by Metro Inc.
following the acquisition of A&P Canada by Metro Inc. In TER’s opinion the closure of
this store is not indicative of a lack of market demand and has resulted in a shortage
of supermarket space in the Study Area.
The proposed department store will contain approximately 35,000 square feet of Food
Oriented Retail (FOR) space. It is expected that the FOR component of this store will
be competitive with supermarkets in the Study Area and beyond.
11
4.4
General Merchandise Competition in the Primary Zone
The Arnprior Canadian Tire is one of seven general merchandise retailers operating in
the Primary Zone. In total, general merchandise space comprises approximately
79,300 square feet or 10.2% of the total space in the Primary Zone. Two of these
retailers (Giant Tiger and Super Lucky Dollar Store) are located in the Downtown with
the remaining three retailers (Hart, A Buck or Two and a Sears general merchandise
outlet) are located in Arnprior Shopping Centre.
Canadian Tire operates an older format freestanding store established in Arnprior in
the 1970s. Approximately half of this store’s space is dedicated to automotive repair
and service. The Site provides the opportunity for Canadian Tire to operate a larger
modern format store in Arnprior in close proximity to other retail uses situated in the
Daniel Street Commercial Area.
4.5
Other NFOR Competition in the Primary Zone
Other NFOR space comprises approximately 251,000 square feet in the Primary
Zone. Approximately 43.9% or 110,100 square feet of this space is comprised of
Building & Outdoor Home Supplies store space. TER estimates the proposed Other
NFOR component of the Subject Development will add approximately 50,000 square
feet of space in the Primary Zone.
4.6
Proposed Competition in the Primary Zone
Discussions with Arnprior planning staff have indicated that in addition to the proposed
Subject Development, Trinity Development Group Inc. (Trinity) has also submitted an
application and site plan for a 45,600 square foot retail centre on Madawaska
Boulevard (Trinity Site). Based on our review of the Trinity site plan, provided by
Arnprior planning staff, TER has assumed this retail centre will be anchored by a
21,000 square foot supermarket and will contain approximately 18,500 square feet of
Other NFOR space. These space assumptions have been reflected in the demand
and impact analysis to follow in the year 2011.
4.7
Inventory of Retail Space Conclusions
There are no department stores in the Study Area and the existing Arnprior Canadian
Tire store is an older format store. Study Area residents are making shopping trips to
other locations such as Renfrew, Carleton Place or Ottawa to fulfil many of their
comparison shopping goods needs. The proposed Subject Development will provide
an opportunity to reduce the outflow of local expenditures from Study Area residents
and will introduce modern new format commercial facilities thus increasing the
attractiveness of Arnprior as a competitive retail location. The arrival of a new
department store and a new format Canadian Tire will provide local consumers with
access to a new format of retail currently unavailable in the marketplace.
12
TABLE 2
STUDY AREA POPULATION LEVELS (1
2007
Primary Zone
Population
Average Annual Growth
Average Annual Growth %
Secondary Zone West
Population
Secondary Zone East
Population
Total Study Area
2011
2013
2015
2017
8,430
9,070
160
1.9%
9,410
170
1.9%
9,770
180
1.9%
10,140
185
1.9%
10,370
10,870
125
1.2%
11,140
135
1.2%
11,410
135
1.2%
11,690
140
1.2%
11,370
12,050
170
1.5%
12,410
180
1.5%
12,770
180
1.5%
13,130
180
1.4%
30,170
31,990
32,960
33,950
34,960
Refer to Appendix D for detailed Study Area projections and data sources.
1)
5 Population Levels
This section of the report presents the population forecasts for the Study Area by
zone. The population forecasts incorporated into this analysis have been estimated by
TER based on published forecast data provided by the Town of Arnprior, the County
of Renfrew and the City of Ottawa.
5.1
Study Years
The population levels for the study period 2007 to 2017 were forecast by TER and are
summarized in Table 2. Appendix D provides a description of the methodology and
data sources used to estimate population levels throughout the Study Area over the
study period.
The year 2007 is the base year for the market demand and impact analysis, with 2011
assumed to be the first full year of operation of Phase 1 of the proposed Subject
Development (including the opening of the department store, the relocated and
expanded Canadian Tire and the allocated ancillary space). Therefore, we have
assumed the majority of space proposed for the Subject Development will be
completed and in operation before the end of 2010.
5.2
Population Forecast
The projections illustrated opposite were adjusted for 2006 Census undercoverage.
5.3
•
The population of the Primary Zone is forecast to increase from 8,430 in 2007
to 10,140 by 2017.
•
The population of the Secondary Zone West is forecast to increase from 10,370
in 2007 to 11,690 by 2017.
•
The population of the Secondary Zone East is forecast to increase from 11,370
in 2007 to 13,130 by 2017.
Population Levels Conclusion
Overall, Population growth is forecast throughout the Study Area and will continue
beyond the study period. The Study Area is forecast to experience an increase in
population from 30,170 in 2007 to 34,960 by 2017. This forecast growth will create
demand for additional retail and service space in the market.
13
TABLE 3
STUDY AREA NON FOOD ORIENTED RETAIL (NFOR) EXPENDITURE POTENTIAL
Current Dollars
2007
Province of Ontario - Average Per Capita NFOR Expenditures
Per Capita NFOR Expenditures (1
Less: Food Oriented Retail (FOR) in WMC's
Adjusted Per Capita NFOR Expenditures
2007 Dollars ($Millions)
(1
$5,200
$150
$5,050
2007
2011
2013
2015
2017
Primary Zone
Income Index to Province (2
NFOR Expenditure Index (3
Population (5
Total Adjusted NFOR Potential
90.3
94.5
$4,770
8,430
$40.2
$5,055
9,070
$45.8
$5,200
9,410
$48.9
$5,340
9,770
$52.2
$5,485
10,140
$55.6
Secondary Zone West
Population (5
95.8
97.6
$4,930
10,370
$51.1
$5,225
10,870
$56.8
$5,375
11,140
$59.9
$5,520
11,410
$63.0
$5,670
11,690
$66.3
Secondary Zone East
Population (5
139.0
122.2
$6,170
11,370
$70.2
$6,540
12,050
$78.8
$6,725
12,410
$83.5
$6,910
12,770
$88.2
$7,095
13,130
$93.2
TOTAL STUDY AREA
Total Adjusted NFOR Potential ($ Millions)
$161.5
$181.4
$192.3
$203.4
$215.1
1)
TER estimate based on Statistics Canada, Retail Trade and Wholesale Trade and other industry sources. See Appendix D for derivation
of Provincial figures.
2)
Based on Statistics Canada, Census of Canada 2001.
3) Based on the income relationship between the Province and Study Area residents using the NFOR regression equation of y=43+.57(x),
where x is the income index. See Appendix D for greater detail.
4) Forecast to increase at 1.5% per annum, excluding inflation.
5)
Repeated from Table 2.
6 Non Food Oriented Retail (NFOR) Expenditure Potential
In this section of the report, TER has calculated the total Non Food Oriented Retail
(NFOR) expenditure potential for the Study Area.
6.1
NFOR Expenditure Potential
For the purpose of this analysis the NFOR category includes the following
merchandise categories:
•
Department Stores
•
General
Merchandise
•
Clothing &
Accessories
•
Furniture, Home
Furnishings & Electronics
•
Pharmacies &
Personal Care
•
Building & Outdoor
Home Supplies
•
The NFOR category utilized in this study excludes the merchandise categories which
are included in the Food Oriented Retail (FOR) category, namely: Supermarkets,
Other Grocery Stores and Other Food Stores. In addition, services such as fast food,
restaurants, entertainment and personal services are also excluded from the NFOR
category.
TER makes one adjustment to the NAICS definitions within the NFOR category.
Statistics Canada classifies warehouse membership clubs (WMC) in the general
merchandise category under the new NAICS classification. However, a significant
portion of WMC sales are derived from their food merchandise. Therefore, TER has
made an adjustment to remove the estimated food component of this expenditure from
the NFOR category.
As indicated in the upper portion of Table 3, TER estimates that on average, each
Ontario resident spends approximately $5,050 at NFOR stores. Based on previous
market trends, TER has forecast that these NFOR expenditures will increase at 1.5%
per year, exclusive of inflation.
Table 3 also includes the total NFOR expenditure volume of the Study Area residents
over the study period. It indicates that Study Area residents currently spend $161.5
million at NFOR stores in the Primary Zone, elsewhere in the Study Area and beyond.
This expenditure potential is forecast to increase to $215.1 million by 2017, excluding
inflation, as a result of population and expenditure growth.
14
TABLE 4
STUDY AREA FOOD ORIENTED RETAIL (FOR) EXPENDITURE POTENTIAL
Current Dollars
2007
Province of Ontario - Average Per Capita FOR Expenditures
(1
Supermarket
(1
Convenience and Specialty Food Stores
(1
Food Store Related WMC Expenditures
$1,731
$250
$150
Adjusted Per Capita FOR Expenditures (including FOR WMC)
$2,131
Primary Zone
FOR Expenditure Index (3
Per Capita FOR Expenditures (4
Population (5
Total Adjusted FOR Potential
Secondary Zone West
(2
Income Index to Province
(3
FOR Expenditure Index
Population (5
Secondary Zone East
(2
Income Index to Province
(3
FOR Expenditure Index
Population (5
TOTAL STUDY AREA
Total FOR Potential ($ Millions)
2007
2011
2013
2015
2017
90.3
99.0
$2,110
8,430
$17.8
$2,150
9,070
$19.5
$2,175
9,410
$20.5
$2,195
9,770
$21.4
$2,215
10,140
$22.5
95.8
99.6
$2,125
10,370
$22.0
$2,170
10,870
$23.6
$2,190
11,140
$24.4
$2,210
11,410
$25.2
$2,230
11,690
$26.1
139.0
103.9
$2,215
11,370
$25.2
$2,260
12,050
$27.2
$2,280
12,410
$28.3
$2,305
12,770
$29.4
$2,325
13,130
$30.5
$65.0
$70.3
$73.2
$76.0
$79.1
1) TER estimate based on Statistics Canada, Retail Trade and Wholesale Trade and other industry sources. See Appendix D for derivations of Provincial
figures.
2) Based on Statistics Canada, Census of Canada 2001.
3) Based on the income relationship between the Province and Study Area residents using the FOR regression equation of y= 90 +.1(x), where x is the
income index. See Appendix D for greater detail.
4)
5)
Forecast to increase at 0.5% per annum, excluding inflation.
7 Food Oriented Retail (FOR) Expenditure Potential
In this section of the report, TER has calculated the total Food Oriented Retail (FOR)
expenditure potential for the Study Area.
7.1
FOR Expenditure Potential
The FOR category utilized by TER, includes the following merchandise categories:
•
Supermarkets & Other Grocery Stores;
•
Convenience Stores;
•
Specialty food stores such as meat markets, fish and seafood markets, fruit and
vegetable markets and other specialty food stores; and,
•
Warehouse Membership Clubs’ (WMCs) Food Component.
As stated in Section 6.1, Statistics Canada classifies warehouse membership clubs as
general merchandise under the new NAICS classification. TER has made an
adjustment to remove the estimated food component of this expenditure from the
NFOR category and add it to the FOR category.
As indicated in the upper portion of Table 4, TER estimates that, on average, each
Ontario resident spends approximately $2,131 at FOR stores. Based on previous
market trends, TER has forecast that these FOR expenditures will increase at 0.5%
per year, exclusive of inflation.
Table 4 also includes the total FOR expenditure volume of Study Area residents over
the study period. It indicates that Study Area residents currently spend $65.0 million
annually in FOR stores in the Primary Zone, elsewhere in the Study Area and beyond.
This expenditure potential is forecast to increase to $79.1 million by 2017, excluding
inflation, as a result of population and expenditure growth.
15
TABLE 5
DEPARTMENT STORE MARKET DEMAND ANALYSIS
2007
2011
2013
2015
2017
Primary Zone
NFOR Expenditure Potential (1
Department Store Share % (2
Department Store Share $
Primary Zone Share % (2
Primary Zone Share $
$40.2
16.0%
$6.4
0.0%
$0.0
$45.8
24.0%
$11.0
70.0%
$7.7
$48.9
24.0%
$11.7
70.0%
$8.2
$52.2
24.0%
$12.5
70.0%
$8.8
$55.6
24.0%
$13.3
70.0%
$9.3
Secondary Zone West
$51.1
16.0%
$8.2
0.0%
$0.0
$56.8
18.0%
$10.2
52.5%
$5.4
$59.9
18.0%
$10.8
52.5%
$5.7
$63.0
18.0%
$11.3
52.5%
$5.9
$66.3
18.0%
$11.9
52.5%
$6.2
Secondary Zone East
$70.2
15.5%
$10.9
0.0%
$0.0
$78.8
17.5%
$13.8
40.0%
$5.5
$83.5
17.5%
$14.6
40.0%
$5.8
$88.2
17.5%
$15.4
40.0%
$6.2
$93.2
17.5%
$16.3
40.0%
$6.5
Total Study Area Department Store Expenditures
Primary Zone Department Store Expenditures
$25.5
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
$35.0
$18.6
53.14%
25.0%
$6.2
$37.1
$19.7
53.10%
25.0%
$6.6
$39.2
$20.9
53.32%
25.0%
$7.0
$41.5
$22.0
53.01%
25.0%
$7.3
$0.0
$24.8
$26.3
$27.9
$29.3
n/a
90,000
$275
90,000
$290
90,000
$310
90,000
$325
Inflow % (3
Inflow $
Total Primary Zone Department Store Expenditures
Proposed Department Store NFOR Component
Department Store NFOR Component Sales Per Square Foot Level
(
2) TER estimate based on Statistics Canada Retail Trade data, in-home consumer telephone survey results, an examination of the
inventory of competitive space and professional judgement.
3) TER estimate based on the results of licence plate surveys and TER's professional judgement.
4) Sales rounded to the nearest $5.00, per square foot.
1)
8 Department Store - NFOR Component Market Demand and
Impact Analysis
In this section of the report, TER has studied the opportunity for the 90,000 square
foot NFOR component of the proposed department store.
In order to undertake this analysis, TER has calculated a department store share of
the total NFOR expenditure potential for the base year and future years. A Primary
Zone share of the Study Area residents’ department store expenditures has also been
estimated based on the results of the in-home consumer telephone survey and TER’s
professional judgement. An inflow factor has then been applied to account for
expenditures made by persons residing outside of the Study Area. This inflow factor
has been based primarily on the results of the licence plate surveys conducted at
various locations in the Primary Zone. These inputs have resulted in a sales estimate
for the first full year of operation of the proposed NFOR component of the department
store in 2011. This sales level is a TER estimate based on TER’s professional
judgement.
8.1
Department Store Share of Total NFOR Expenditures
Section 6.1 and Table 3 outlined the calculation of the total Study Area NFOR
expenditure potential. Statistics Canada Retail Trade information, the results of our inhome consumer telephone survey, an examination of the inventory of competitive
space and TER’s professional judgment has resulted in the estimate of the
department store share indicated in our analysis presented in Table 5. The
department store share of NFOR expenditures in the 2007 base year is estimated to
be 16.0% in the Primary Zone, 16.0% in the Secondary Zone West, and 15.5% in the
Secondary Zone East.
It is estimated that in 2011 the introduction of the 90,000 square foot NFOR
component of the proposed department store will increase the department store share
of NFOR expenditures throughout the Study Area. The department store share is
forecast to increase to 24.0% in the Primary Zone and 18.0% and 17.5% in the
Secondary Zone West and East respectively.
8.2
Department Store - NFOR Component Market Demand Analysis
Currently, there are no department stores in Arnprior or elsewhere in the Study Area.
The majority of Study Area residents’ department store expenditures are made at
department stores in communities such as Renfrew, Carleton Place, Ottawa or
elsewhere.
Using the results of the in-home consumer survey (provided in Appendix C), TER
estimates that Study Area residents spent $25.5 million in department stores outside
of the Study Area in 2007. The majority of these expenditures were made at Wal-Mart
16
stores located in Kanata and Renfrew. The proposed department store on the Site will
provide an opportunity to recapture a portion of these Study Area residents’
expenditures currently leaving the market.
TER estimates that the 90,000 square foot NFOR component of the proposed
department store will recapture the following local shares of Study Area residents’
department store expenditures in 2011:
•
70.0% of Primary Zone residents’ department store expenditures;
•
52.5% of Secondary Zone West residents’ department store expenditures; and
•
40.0% of Secondary Zone East residents’ department store expenditures
Inflow of expenditures from beyond the Study Area is also recognized in this analysis.
These expenditures represent visitors, students, tourists and seasonal residents who
reside outside of the Study Area. Inflow is estimated at 25.0% of total sales volume at
the proposed department store.
The resulting average sales performance level of the proposed department store’s
90,000 square foot NFOR component is estimated to be $275 per square foot in 2011.
It is TER’s opinion that this sales performance level is appropriate for the NFOR
component of a department store in this market. In future years sales performance
levels are forecast to increase to $290 per square foot by 2013, $310 per square foot
by 2015 and to $325 per square foot by 2017.
8.3
Department Store - NFOR Component Market Impact Analysis
Given there are no department stores currently located in the Study Area, there are no
measurable localized impacts on Study Area department stores to evaluate.
However, Section 11 of this report evaluates the impact of the proposed department
store on Other NFOR retailers in the market.
8.4
Department Store - NFOR Component Market Demand and Impact Analysis
Conclusions
The development of the proposed department store’s 90,000 square foot NFOR
component on the Site is warranted based on market demand. The nearest
department store competition is located approximately 25-45 kilometres from Arnprior.
The proposed department store will recapture a significant portion of expenditures
currently leaving the market. It will allow Arnprior to become a more competitive retail
location relative to other municipalities with department stores including Carleton
Place, Ottawa and Renfrew. Furthermore, the introduction of a department store on
the Site will not result in a detrimental transfer of sales from existing businesses and
there will be no adverse impacts that will compromise the viability of existing retail
businesses in Arnprior.
17
TABLE 6
DEPARTMENT STORE - FOOD ORIENTED RETAIL (FOR) COMPONENT MARKET DEMAND ANALYSIS
2007
2011
2013
2015
2017
$17.8
85.0%
$15.1
$19.5
86.5%
$16.9
$20.5
86.5%
$17.7
$21.4
86.5%
$18.5
$22.5
86.5%
$19.5
91.3%
$13.8
95.0%
$16.1
95.0%
$16.8
95.0%
$17.6
95.0%
$18.5
$22.0
84.0%
$18.5
$23.6
85.0%
$20.1
$24.4
85.0%
$20.7
$25.2
85.0%
$21.4
$26.1
85.0%
$22.2
58.8%
$10.9
72.5%
$14.6
72.5%
$15.0
72.5%
$15.5
72.5%
$16.1
$25.2
80.0%
$20.2
25.7%
$5.2
$27.2
81.0%
$22.0
50.0%
$11.0
$28.3
81.0%
$22.9
50.0%
$11.5
$29.4
81.0%
$23.8
50.0%
$11.9
$30.5
81.0%
$24.7
50.0%
$12.4
$53.8
$29.9
0.5558
14.1%
$4.9
$59.0
$41.7
0.7068
17.5%
$8.8
$61.3
$43.3
0.7064
17.5%
$9.2
$63.7
$45.0
0.7064
17.5%
$9.5
$66.4
$47.0
0.7078
17.5%
$10.0
Total Primary Zone Supermarket Expenditures
$34.8
$50.5
$52.5
$54.5
$57.0
Primary Zone Supermarket Space
Potential Trinity Site Supermarket Space
Proposed Department Store FOR Component
Total Supermarket and FOR Space
Supermarket Sales Per Square Foot Level (4
56,300
Primary Zone
FOR Expenditure Potential (1
Supermarket Share % (2
Supermarket Share $
(2
Primary Zone Share %
Secondary Zone West
(1
(2
Supermarket Share %
Supermarket Share $
(2
Secondary Zone East
(1
(2
Supermarket Share %
Supermarket Share $
(2
Total Study Area Supermarket Expenditures
Primary Zone Supermarket Share
Inflow %
Inflow $
(3
Percent Change From Current
56,300
$620
56,300
21,000
35,000
112,300
$450
-27.4%
56,300
21,000
35,000
112,300
$465
-25.0%
56,300
21,000
35,000
112,300
$485
-21.8%
2) TER estimate based on Statistics Canada Retail Trade data, in-home consumer telephone survey results, an examination of the inventory of
competitive space and professional judgement.
3) TER estimate based on the results of licence plate surveys and TER's professional judgement.
4) Sales rounded to the nearest $5.00, per square foot.
1)
56,300
21,000
35,000
112,300
$510
-17.7%
9 Department Store - FOR Component Market Demand and
Impact Analysis Market
In this section of the report, TER has studied the opportunity for the proposed 35,000
square foot Food Oriented Retail (FOR) component of the department store. In this
analysis, the FOR component of the department store has been analysed separately
as it is anticipated that the FOR component may compete to some extent with existing
supermarkets. In addition to food items, the FOR space will also contain items
typically found in supermarkets, department stores and drug stores, such as
household cleaning supplies, etc. This analysis also recognizes the potential for a
21,000 square foot supermarket on the Trinity Site.
9.1
Supermarket Shares of Total FOR Expenditures
Section 7.1 and Table 4 outlined the calculation of the total Study Area FOR potential.
Statistics Canada Retail Trade information, the results of our in-home consumer
telephone survey, an examination of the competitive retail space and TER’s
professional judgment resulted in the estimate of the supermarket share of FOR
expenditures indicated in our analysis presented in Table 6. The supermarket share of
FOR expenditures in the 2007 base year is estimated to be 85.0% in the Primary
Zone, 84.0% in the Secondary Zone West and 80.0% in the Secondary Zone East.
TER has assumed that the first full year of operation of the 35,000 square foot
department store FOR component will be 2011. Furthermore, TER has also
recognized the potential for 21,000 square feet of new supermarket space on the
Trinity Site in 2011.
It is the opinion of TER that the addition of the department store FOR component and
the potential supermarket on the Trinity Site is forecast to result in an increase of the
supermarket shares of FOR expenditures to 86.5% in the Primary Zone and an
increase to 85.0% and 81.0% in the Secondary Zone West and East respectively.
9.2
Department Store - FOR Component Market Demand Analysis
Table 6 indicates the local share of Study Area residents supermarket expenditures
that are made in supermarkets located in the Primary Zone. TER has based our
estimate of these expenditures on the results of our in-home consumer telephone
survey, an examination of the competitive retail space and TER’s professional
judgment. In 2007, it is estimated that the existing inventory of supermarket space
(No Frills and A&P supermarkets) in the Primary Zone captures:
•
91.3% of Primary Zone residents’ supermarket expenditures;
•
58.8% of Secondary Zone West residents’ supermarket expenditures; and
•
25.7% of Secondary Zone East residents’ supermarket expenditures.
18
TABLE 7
DEPARTMENT STORE - FOOD ORIENTED RETAIL (FOR) COMPONENT DIRECTIONAL
Total Primary Zone
Supermarket Space
2007
Supermarket Sales From Study Area Residents (1
Primary Zone Share of Supermarket Expenditures
Primary Zone Market Share % (1
Plus Inflow Estimate (2
TOTAL SALES
Square Footage
Sales per sq. ft. (3
(1
A&P - Arnprior
Shopping Centre
No Frills Winners Circle
Trinity Site
Potential
Supermarket
Subject Development
Proposed Department
Store FOR Component (4
$53.8
$29.9
55.6%
14.1%
$34.8
56,300
$620
$16.2
30.1%
15.0%
$19.1
33,200
$575
$13.7
25.5%
12.5%
$15.7
23,100
$680
$59.0
$41.7
70.6%
17.5%
$50.5
112,300
$450
-27.4%
$11.8
20.0%
15.0%
$13.9
33,200
$420
-27.0%
$10.1
17.1%
12.5%
$11.5
23,100
$500
-26.5%
$8.0
13.5%
15.0%
$9.4
21,000
$450
n/a
$11.8
20.0%
25.0%
$15.7
35,000
$450
n/a
$61.3
$43.3
70.6%
17.5%
$52.5
112,300
$465
-25.0%
$12.3
20.0%
15.0%
$14.5
33,200
$435
-24.3%
$10.5
17.1%
12.5%
$12.0
23,100
$520
-23.5%
$8.3
13.5%
15.0%
$9.8
21,000
$465
n/a
$12.3
20.0%
25.0%
$16.4
35,000
$470
n/a
$63.7
$45.0
70.6%
17.5%
$54.5
112,300
$485
-21.8%
$12.7
20.0%
15.0%
$14.9
33,200
$450
-21.7%
$10.9
17.1%
12.5%
$12.5
23,100
$540
-20.6%
$8.6
13.5%
15.0%
$10.1
21,000
$480
n/a
$12.7
20.0%
25.0%
$16.9
35,000
$485
n/a
$66.4
$47.0
70.6%
17.5%
$57.0
112,300
$510
-17.7%
$13.3
20.0%
15.0%
$15.6
33,200
$470
-18.3%
$11.4
17.1%
12.5%
$13.0
23,100
$565
-16.9%
$9.0
13.5%
15.0%
$10.6
21,000
$505
n/a
$13.3
20.0%
25.0%
$17.7
35,000
$505
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
2011
TOTAL SALES
Square Footage
Sales per sq. ft. (3,4
Percent Change Sales per sq. ft.
2013
TOTAL SALES
Square Footage
2015
(1
Supermarket Sales From Study Area Residents
TOTAL SALES
Square Footage
2017
(1
Supermarket Sales From Study Area Residents
(2
Plus Inflow Estimate
TOTAL SALES
Square Footage
(1
(1
(1
(1
Total Study Area expenditure calculated in Table 7. Distribution of sales based on in-home consumer telephone survey results and TER's professional judgement.
1)
2)
3)
4)
TER estimate based on the results of licence plate surveys and TER's professional judgement.
Rounded to the nearest $5.00.
Proposed Department Store FOR component size and proposed supermarket entry sales per square foot level based on TER estimate.
The 2007 inflow for the existing supermarkets in the Primary Zone is estimated at an
average level of 14.1%. The resulting average sales performance level of the existing
56,300 square feet of supermarket space in the Primary Zone is estimated to be $620
per square foot. This level is considered by TER to be above industry averages.
The introduction of the 35,000 square foot department store FOR component and the
potential 21,000 square foot supermarket on the Trinity Site are forecast to increase
the share of supermarket expenditures made in the Primary Zone. These increases
are estimated at the following rates in 2011 and are forecast to remain constant over
the study period:
•
95.0% of Primary Zone residents’ supermarket expenditures;
•
72.5% of Secondary Zone West residents’ supermarket expenditures; and
•
50.0% of Secondary Zone East residents’ supermarket expenditures.
Inflow is also expected to increase to 17.5% of average supermarket sales volumes in
2011. Total supermarket sales volumes in 2011 are forecast at $50.5 million resulting
in an average supermarket sales level of $450 per square foot. This level represents
a 26.8% decrease in the average supermarket sales per square foot performance
level from the 2007 base year. However, TER considers these average sales
performance levels to be within typical industry levels for a market such as Arnprior.
Furthermore, sales performance levels are forecast to increase from this level over the
study period.
9.3
Department Store - FOR Component Market Impact Analysis
Table 7 examines the anticipated impact of the addition of the 35,000 square foot
department store FOR component and the potential 21,000 square foot supermarket
at the Trinity Site on the existing Primary Zone supermarkets. The following
observations are made in terms of directional impact:
•
Overall, it is TER’s opinion that the 2007 base year supermarket performance
levels in the Primary Zone are above industry averages. This is largely as a
result of the closure of the Loeb supermarket formerly located in the Downtown
Core. In TER’s opinion this store closed as a result of a business consolidation
decision made by Metro Inc. (operator of the A&P supermarket in Arnprior
Shopping Centre) following the acquisition of A&P Canada and Metro Inc. and
not as a result of local market conditions. In TER’s opinion there has been a
shortage of supermarket space in the Study Area since the closure of the Loeb
supermarket resulting in the elevated sales performance of No Frills and A&P
supermarkets.
•
Sales impacts are forecast as a result of the combination of the opening of the
department store FOR component and the assumed addition of supermarket
19
space at the Trinity Site. These sales impacts are estimated between 26.5%
and 27.0% for the No Frills and A&P supermarkets respectively.
•
Overall, it is TER’s opinion that supermarket performance levels in the Primary
Zone will remain within industry averages and any resulting sales transfer from
existing supermarkets to the proposed department store FOR component will
not adversely impact their continued operation in Arnprior.
It is the opinion of TER that there is no risk of closure of any supermarket in the Study
Area due to the introduction of the proposed department store FOR space or the
assumed new supermarket on the Trinity Site.
9.4
Department Store - FOR Component Market Demand and Impact Analysis
Conclusion
There is sufficient market demand to warrant the development of the 35,000 square
foot department store FOR component, in conjunction with the potential supermarket
space anticipated on the Trinity Site. It is our professional opinion that the introduction
of the department store FOR component will not adversely impact the continued
viability of either the No Frills or the A&P supermarkets as a result of detrimental sales
transfers from these businesses.
20
TABLE 8
GENERAL MERCHANDISE MARKET DEMAND AND IMPACT ANALYSIS
2007
2011
2013
2015
2017
Primary Zone
General Merchandise Share % (2
General Merchandise Share $
$40.2
18.0%
$7.2
82.0%
$5.9
$45.8
19.0%
$8.7
92.5%
$8.0
$48.9
19.0%
$9.3
92.5%
$8.6
$52.2
19.0%
$9.9
92.5%
$9.1
$55.6
19.0%
$10.6
92.5%
$9.8
Secondary Zone West
$51.1
17.5%
$8.9
58.9%
$5.2
$56.8
18.0%
$10.2
65.0%
$6.6
$59.9
18.0%
$10.8
65.0%
$7.0
$63.0
18.0%
$11.3
65.0%
$7.3
$66.3
18.0%
$11.9
65.0%
$7.7
Secondary Zone East
$70.2
14.5%
$10.2
16.1%
$1.6
$78.8
15.0%
$11.8
22.5%
$2.7
$83.5
15.0%
$12.5
22.5%
$2.8
$88.2
15.0%
$13.2
22.5%
$3.0
$93.2
15.0%
$14.0
22.5%
$3.2
Inflow % (3
Inflow $
$26.3
$12.7
48.3%
18.5%
$2.9
$30.7
$17.3
56.4%
21.0%
$4.6
$32.6
$18.4
56.4%
21.0%
$4.9
$34.4
$19.4
56.4%
21.0%
$5.2
$36.5
$20.7
56.7%
21.0%
$5.5
Total Primary Zone General Merchandise Expenditures
$15.6
$21.9
$23.3
$24.6
$26.2
Total Study Area General Merchandise Expenditures
Primary Zone General Merchandise Expenditures
Existing General Merchandise Space
Subject Development Proposed Canadian Tire
Total General Merchandise Space
Average General Merchandise Sales Per Square Foot Le
79,300
n/a
79,300
$195
58,300
50,000
108,300
$200
2.6%
58,300
50,000
108,300
$215
10.3%
58,300
50,000
108,300
$225
15.4%
58,300
50,000
108,300
$240
23.1%
2)
TER estimate based on Statistics Canada Retail Trade data, in-home consumer telephone survey results, an examination of
the inventory of competitive space and professional judgement.
3)
TER estimate based on the results of licence plate surveys and TER's professional judgement.
4)
Sales rounded to the nearest $5.00 per square foot.
1)
10 General Merchandise Demand and Impact Analysis
In addition to the proposed department store analysed in Sections 8 and 9, the
Developer is also proposing to relocate the existing 21,000 square foot Canadian Tire
store located on Daniel Street to an expanded new format store on the Site. The
purpose of this section of the report is to analyse the market demand and potential
impacts of the introduction of a new format Canadian Tire store on the Site.
10.1
General Merchandise Share of Total NFOR Expenditures
Canadian Tire retail sales are a component of the general merchandise retail
expenditure category. Section 6.1 and Table 3 outlined the calculation of the total
Study Area NFOR potential. Statistics Canada Retail Trade information, the results of
our in-home consumer telephone survey, an examination of the inventory of
competitive space and TER’s professional judgment resulted in the estimate of the
general merchandise share of total NFOR potential, as illustrated in Table 8. The
general merchandise share of NFOR expenditures in the 2007 base year is estimated
to be 18.0% in the Primary Zone, 17.5% in the Secondary Zone West and 14.5% in
Secondary Zone East.
The Arnprior Canadian Tire is a freestanding older format store. Approximately half of
this store’s space is dedicated to automotive repair and service. It is the opinion of
TER that the expansion and relocation of the Canadian Tire into a new format store in
this market will result in an increase in the general merchandise share of Study Area
NFOR expenditures in 2011. As a result TER has forecast that the general
merchandise shares of NFOR expenditures will increase to 19.0% in the Primary Zone
and 18.0% and 15.0% in the Secondary Zone West and East respectively.
10.2
General Merchandise Market Demand Analysis
Table 8 indicates the local share of Study Area residents general merchandise
expenditures that are made in general merchandise stores located in the Primary
Zone. TER has based its estimate of these expenditures on the results of our in-home
consumer telephone survey, an examination of the competitive retail space and TER’s
professional judgment. In the 2007 base year, it is calculated that existing Primary
Zone general merchandise retailers, including Canadian Tire, capture:
•
82.0% of Primary Zone residents’ general merchandise expenditures;
•
58.9% of Secondary Zone West residents’ general merchandise expenditures;
and
•
16.1% of Secondary Zone East residents’ general merchandise expenditures.
As discussed in Section 4, previously, Arnprior is less competitive as a retail location
in comparison to other communities that surround the Study Area. This is largely
21
attributed to these other communities having retailers with more modern format stores
and expanded merchandise lines. At present, Primary Zone general merchandise
retailers have a market share of less than half of the non-department store general
merchandise expenditure potential derived from Study Area residents. In addition
these retailers attract a small portion of their sales from beyond the Primary Zone.
Currently, inflow of expenditures from non-Study Area residents is estimated at 18.5%
of total sales volumes. The TER analysis indicates that the existing 79,300 square
feet of general merchandise space is estimated to be performing at $195 per square
foot. This sales performance level is considered by TER to be somewhat lower than
normal for typical general merchandise retailers. However, in TER’s opinion these
lower than normal sales performance levels can be attributed to the following factors:
•
The largest general merchandise store in the Primary Zone is the Hart general
merchandise store located in Arnprior Shopping Centre. Average sales
performance levels for this retailer are approximately $85 per square foot5.
The Hart store in Arnprior is approximately 29,000 square feet and accounts
for approximately 37.5% of general merchandise space in the Primary Zone.
As a result, the sales volumes derived from this store significantly influence the
average base year sales performance levels for the general merchandise
category.
•
The existing Canadian Tire store in Arnprior is an older format store. TER’s
consumer research indicates that a significant portion of Study Area residents
are shopping at other Canadian Tire locations elsewhere.
In the opinion of TER, the combination of these factors has resulted in lower than
normal sales performance levels for general merchandise retailers in the Primary
Zone.
It is estimated that the relocation and expansion of the Arnprior Canadian Tire to a
50,000 square foot new format Canadian Tire store on the Site in 2011 will result in
the recapture of Study Area residents’ expenditures. As a result local shares are
forecast to increase to:
•
92.5% of Primary Zone residents’ general merchandise expenditures;
•
65.0% of Secondary Zone West residents’ general merchandise expenditures;
and
•
22.5% of Secondary Zone East residents’ general merchandise expenditures.
Inflow is also expected to increase to 21.0%. Total general merchandise sales
volumes in 2011 are forecast at $21.9 million, an increase of $6.3 million since 2007.
The average sales performance level is forecast to increase to $200 per square foot
as a result of market growth, recapture and the relocation and expansion of the
Canadian Tire. In future years, TER estimates that average sales performance levels
5
Based on TER’s review of financial information provided in Hart Stores’ 2008 Annual Report.
22
TABLE 9
GENERAL MERCHANDISE DIRECTIONAL MARKET IMPACT ANALYSIS
Total Primary
Zone General
Merchandise
Space
2007
(1
Study Area General Merchandise Expenditure Potential
Study Area Market Share (1
Study Area Share of General Merchandise Expenditures (1, 2
(3
TOTAL SALES (2
Square Footage
(4
Sales per sq. ft.
Downtown
Core
Arnprior
Arnprior
Canadian Tire Shopping Centre
Subject
Development
Proposed
(5
Canadian Tire
$26.3
48.5%
$12.7
18.5%
$15.6
79,300
$195
12.7%
$3.3
17.0%
$4.0
15,400
$260
Study Area General Merchandise Expenditure Potential
TOTAL SALES (2
Square Footage
Sales per sq. ft. (4, 5
$30.7
56.4%
$17.3
21.5%
$21.9
108,300
$200
2.6%
10.4%
$3.2
17.0%
$3.9
15,400
$255
-1.9%
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
15.5%
$4.7
15.0%
$5.5
42,900
$130
-7.1%
30.5%
$9.4
25.0%
$12.5
50,000
$250
n/a
2013
Study Area General Merchandise Expenditure Potential (1
TOTAL SALES (2
Square Footage
$32.6
56.4%
$18.4
21.0%
$23.3
108,300
$215
10.3%
10.4%
$3.4
17.0%
$4.1
15,400
$265
1.9%
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
15.5%
$5.1
15.0%
$6.0
42,900
$140
0.0%
30.5%
$9.9
25.0%
$13.2
50,000
$265
n/a
2015
(1, 2
Study Area Share of General Merchandise Expenditures
(3
TOTAL SALES (2
Square Footage
$34.4
56.4%
$19.4
21.0%
$24.5
108,300
$225
15.4%
10.4%
$3.6
17.0%
$4.3
15,400
$280
7.7%
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
15.5%
$5.3
15.0%
$6.2
42,900
$145
3.6%
30.5%
$10.5
25.0%
$14.0
50,000
$280
n/a
2017
(1
Study Area Market Share
(1, 2
Study Area Share of General Merchandise Expenditures
(3
(2
TOTAL SALES
Square Footage
(4
Sales per sq. ft.
$36.5
56.4%
$20.6
21.0%
$26.1
108,300
$240
23.1%
10.4%
$3.8
17.0%
$4.6
15,400
$300
15.4%
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
15.5%
$5.7
15.0%
$6.7
42,900
$155
10.7%
30.5%
$11.1
25.0%
$14.8
50,000
$295
n/a
16.4%
$4.3
22.5%
$5.6
21,000
$265
19.4%
$5.1
15.0%
$6.0
42,900
$140
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
2011
(1
Total Study Area expenditure calculated in Table 8. Distribution of sales based on in-home consumer telephone survey results and TER's
professional judgement.
1)
2)
3)
4)
5)
Some figures shown may not match the corresponding entry in Table 8 due to rounding.
Inflow estimates based on the results of licence plate surveys and TER's professional judgement.
Proposed size of Canadian Tire space provided by the Developer. Entry sales per square foot level based on TER estimate.
will continue to increase to $215 per square foot by 2013, $225 per square foot by
2015 and $240 per square foot by 2017.
10.3
General Merchandise Market Impact Analysis
Table 9 examines the anticipated impact of the relocation and expansion of the
Canadian Tire on the existing general merchandise stores in the Primary Zone. The
following observations are made in terms of directional impact:
•
The majority of the sales volume generated by the new Canadian Tire will
result from the recapture of Canadian Tire expenditures previously made at
other competing new format Canadian Tire’s locations outside the Study Area.
•
This recapture of local expenditures will contribute to retaining local residents’
general merchandise expenditures in Arnprior and will strengthen the attraction
of Arnprior as a retail destination thereby creating the opportunity for positive
spinoffs for other businesses in the market.
•
The relocation and expansion of the Canadian Tire on the Site will result in
some minor sales transfers from other general merchandise retailers in the
Primary Zone in the short term. However sales volumes are forecast to return
to base year levels by 2013 and exceed these levels over the remainder of the
study period as a result of expenditure growth in the market.
•
The relocation of the Canadian Tore to the Site, approximately 1.4 kilometres
to the west of its current location, will not negatively influence the continued
viability of other businesses situated in the Daniel Street Commercial Area.
It is the opinion of TER that there is no risk of closure of any general merchandise
retailer in the Study Area due to relocation and expansion of the Canadian Tire on the
Site.
10.4
General Merchandise Demand and Impact Analysis Conclusions
There is sufficient market demand to warrant the relocation and expansion of the
Arnprior Canadian Tire store to a 50,000 square foot new format store on the Site in
2011. The proposed new store will contribute to modernizing retail competition in
Arnprior and will strengthen the attraction of Arnprior as a retail destination. In
addition, the new format store will contribute to retaining local residents’ general
merchandise expenditures in Arnprior. It is TER’s professional opinion, that the
relocation of this store, approximately 1.4 kilometres to the west of its current location,
will not negatively influence the continued viability of other businesses situated in the
Daniel Street Commercial Area.
23
TABLE 10
OTHER NFOR MARKET DEMAND ANALYSIS
Primary Zone
(1
(2
Other NFOR Share %
Other NFOR Share $
(2
2007
2011
2013
2015
2017
$40.2
$45.8
$48.9
$52.2
$55.6
66.0%
$26.5
72.0%
$19.1
57.0%
$26.1
77.5%
$20.2
57.0%
$27.9
82.5%
$23.0
57.0%
$29.8
82.5%
$24.6
57.0%
$31.7
82.5%
$26.2
5.5%
5.0%
0.0%
Secondary Zone West
(1
(2
Other NFOR Share %
Other NFOR Share $
(2
$51.1
66.5%
$34.0
37.9%
$12.9
$56.8
64.0%
$36.4
42.0%
$15.3
4.1%
$59.9
64.0%
$38.3
45.0%
$17.2
3.0%
$63.0
64.0%
$40.3
45.0%
$18.1
0.0%
$66.3
64.0%
$42.4
45.0%
$19.1
Secondary Zone East
(1
(2
Other NFOR Share %
Other NFOR Share $
(2
$70.2
70.0%
$49.1
9.2%
$4.6
$83.5
67.5%
$56.4
17.5%
$9.9
3.5%
$122.6
$50.1
40.9%
17.5%
$10.6
$88.2
67.5%
$59.5
17.5%
$10.4
0.0%
$129.6
$53.1
41.0%
17.5%
$11.3
$93.2
67.5%
$62.9
17.5%
$11.0
$109.6
$36.6
33.4%
15.5%
$6.7
$78.8
67.5%
$53.2
14.0%
$7.4
4.8%
$115.7
$42.9
37.1%
16.5%
$8.5
$137.0
$56.3
41.1%
17.5%
$11.9
$43.3
$51.4
$60.7
$64.4
$68.2
251,000
251,000
251,000
251,000
251,000
25,000
18,500
50,000
21,000
18,500
50,000
21,000
18,500
50,000
21,000
18,500
294,500
$175
0.0%
340,500
$180
2.9%
340,500
$190
8.6%
340,500
$200
14.3%
Total Study Area Other NFOR Expenditures
Primary Zone Other NFOR Expenditures
Inflow %
Inflow $
(3
Total Primary Zone Other NFOR Expenditures
Primary Zone Other NFOR Space
Proposed Space
Subject Development (4
(5
Retenanted Canadian Tire Space
(6
Trinity Site
Total Primary Zone Other NFOR Space
(7
NFOR Space Sales Per Square Foot Level
251,000
$175
43,500
46,000
1) Repeated from Table 3.
0.17
42.50%
8.50%
2) TER estimate based on Statistics Canada Retail Trade data, in-home consumer telephone survey results, an examination of the inventory of competitive
space and professional judgement.
3) Inflow estimates based on the results of licence plate surveys and TER's professional judgement.
4) TER has assumed the development of the ancillary retail component of the Subject Development will be phased over the study years 2011 and 2013.
5) TER has assumed the Trinity Site will contain 18,500 square feet of Other NFOR space developed in 2011. This estimate is based on TER's review of
the Trinity site plan submitted to Arnprior.
6) TER has assumed the Arnprior Canadian Tire store will be retenanted with Other NFOR uses following the opening of the new expanded and relocated
store on the Subject Site.
7) Sales rounded to the nearest $5.00 per square foot.
11 Other NFOR Market Demand and Impact Analysis
In addition to the two proposed anchor tenants, the Subject Development will also
include approximately 50,000 square feet of ancillary Other NFOR6 retail service
space. This Other NFOR space is expected to be phased over time.
The purpose of this section of the report is to analyse the market demand and
potential impacts of the proposed 50,000 square feet of ancillary Other NFOR space
on the Site over two phases in 2011 and 2013. In addition, this analysis also
recognizes the potential opportunity for the development of 18,500 square feet of
additional proposed Other NFOR space on the Trinity Site in 2011 and the retenanting
of the 21,000 square feet of the vacated Canadian Tire in 2013 that will result from the
relocation of this store to the Site.
For the purpose of this analysis, TER has defined “Other NFOR” space to include the
following retail categories:
•
Clothing &
Accessories
•
•
Pharmacies &
Personal Care
•
Furniture, Home
Furnishings &
Electronics
Miscellaneous
Retailers
•
Building & Outdoor
Home Supplies
TER has excluded the department store and the general merchandise category
expenditures from this definition of Other NFOR.
11.1
Other NFOR Share of Total NFOR Expenditures
Section 6.1 and Table 3 outlined the calculation of the total Study Area NFOR
potential. Statistics Canada Retail Trade information, the results of our in-home
consumer telephone survey, an examination of the inventory of competitive space and
TER’s professional judgment resulted in the estimate of the Other NFOR share of
NFOR expenditures in the 2007 base year as illustrated in Table 10. The Other NFOR
share of NFOR expenditures in the 2007 base year is estimated to be 66.0% in the
Primary Zone, 66.5% in the Secondary Zone West and 70.0% in the Secondary Zone
East.
The analysis in Table 10 forecasts that the Other NFOR share of NFOR expenditures
will decline in 2011 as a result of the introduction of the proposed department store
and relocated and expanded Canadian Tire store on the Site. The introduction of
these stores in Arnprior will decrease Other NFOR share of NFOR expenditures to
57.0% in the Primary Zone and 64.0% and 67.5% in the Secondary Zone West and
East respectively.
6
For the purpose of this analysis “Other NFOR” is defined as total NFOR, less department stores and
general merchandise expenditures.
24
11.2
Other NFOR Market Demand Analysis
Table 10 indicates the local share of Study Area residents Other NFOR expenditures
that are made in the Primary Zone. TER has based its estimate of these expenditures
on the results of our in-home consumer telephone survey, an examination of the
competitive retail space and TER’s professional judgment. In the 2007 base year, it is
calculated that existing Primary Zone Other NFOR retailers capture:
•
72.0% of Primary Zone East residents’ Other NFOR expenditures;
•
37.9% of Secondary Zone West residents’ Other NFOR expenditures; and
•
9.2% of Secondary Zone East residents’ Other NFOR expenditures.
In a similar fashion to the general merchandise analysis discussed previously in
Section 10.2, Primary Zone Other NFOR retailers’ market share of Study Area
residents’ Other NFOR expenditure potential is estimated at approximately one third of
available expenditures. In addition these retailers attract a very small portion of their
sales from beyond the Primary Zone. This demonstrates the significant outflow of
expenditures from this market.
The 2007 inflow is estimated at 15.5%. The average sales level of the existing
251,000 square feet of Other NFOR space in the Primary Zone is estimated to be
$175 per square foot. As was the case with general merchandise performance levels
discussed previously, TER considers this sales performance level for Other NFOR
retailers to be somewhat lower than normal. However given the limited presence of
modern new format retailers operating in this market relative to other competing retail
locations surrounding Arnprior this sales performance level is not unexpected.
It is estimated that the introduction of 50,000 square feet of Other NFOR space
anticipated over two development phases on the Site as well as the addition of 18,500
square feet of Other NFOR space anticipated on the Trinity Site and the retenanting of
the vacated Canadian Tire store will result in the recapture of a portion of Study Area
expenditure potential. TER forecasts this recapture will increase the local share
according to the following ranges over the period 2011 - 2013:
•
77.5% - 82.5% of Primary Zone East residents’ Other NFOR expenditures;
•
42.0% - 45.0% of Secondary Zone West residents’ Other NFOR expenditures;
and
•
14.0% - 17.5% of Secondary Zone East residents’ Other NFOR expenditures
Increases in inflow are expected to range from 16.5% in 2011 to 17.5% by 2013. Total
Other NFOR sales volumes over the period 2011 to 2017 are forecast increase from
$51.4 million to $68.2 million. These estimates result in an average Primary Zone
Other NFOR sales level ranging from $175 – $200 per square foot over the same
period, an increase over 2007 base year levels.
25
TABLE 11
TOWN OF ARNPRIOR RETAIL MARKET DEMAND AND IMPACT
OTHER NFOR DIRECTIONAL MARKET IMPACT ANALYSIS
2007
Study Area Other NFOR Expenditure Potential (1
Study Area Share of Other NFOR Expenditures (1, 2
TOTAL SALES (2
Square Footage
Total Primary
Zone Other
NFOR Space
$109.6
33.2%
$36.5
15.5%
$43.3
251,000
$175
Downtown
Core
12.0%
$13.2
12.5%
$15.1
90,000
$170
$191
Subject
Trinity Site Development
Daniel Street
Other Madawaska
Commercial Arnprior West Boulevard - Other NFOR Other NFOR
(5
of River East of River
Space (6
Space (6
Area
12.9%
$14.2
19.0%
$17.5
87,300
$200
0.7%
$0.8
10.0%
$0.9
7,600
$120
$132
7.6%
$8.3
15.0%
$9.8
66,100
$150
$166
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
3.1%
$3.6
15.0%
$4.2
18,500
$225
n/a
3.6%
$4.2
25.0%
$5.6
25,000
$225
n/a
2011 Opening of Trinity Site's 18,500 square feet and the Subject Development's Phase 1 - 25,000 square feet of Other NFOR Space
TOTAL SALES (2
Square Footage
(4, 6
Sales per sq. ft.
$115.7
37.1%
$43.0
16.5%
$51.5
294,500
$175
0.0%
10.7%
$12.4
12.5%
$14.2
90,000
$160
-5.9%
11.8%
$13.7
19.0%
$16.8
87,300
$190
-5.0%
0.7%
$0.8
10.0%
$0.9
7,600
$120
0.0%
7.2%
$8.3
15.0%
$9.8
66,100
$150
0.0%
2013 - Retenanting of Arnprior Canadian Tire Space and the opening of the Subject Development's Phase 2 - 25,000 square feet of Other NFOR Space
$122.6
40.8%
9.9%
13.6%
0.7%
6.8%
2.9%
6.9%
$50.1
$12.1
$16.7
$0.9
$8.3
$3.6
$8.5
17.5%
12.5%
19.0%
10.0%
15.0%
15.0%
25.0%
TOTAL SALES (2
$60.7
$13.8
$20.6
$1.0
$9.8
$4.2
$11.3
Square Footage
340,500
90,000
108,300
7,600
66,100
18,500
50,000
(4, 6
$180
$155
$190
$130
$150
$225
$225
Sales per sq. ft.
-8.8%
-5.0%
8.3%
0.0%
2.9%
n/a
n/a
2015
TOTAL SALES (2
Square Footage
(4
Sales per sq. ft.
$129.6
40.8%
$52.8
17.5%
$64.1
340,500
$190
8.6%
9.9%
$12.8
12.5%
$14.6
90,000
$160
-5.9%
13.6%
$17.6
19.0%
$21.7
108,300
$200
0.0%
0.7%
$0.9
10.0%
$1.0
7,600
$130
8.3%
6.8%
$8.8
15.0%
$10.4
66,100
$155
3.3%
2.9%
$3.8
15.0%
$4.5
18,500
$245
n/a
6.9%
$8.9
25.0%
$11.9
50,000
$240
n/a
2017
TOTAL SALES (2
Square Footage
(4
Sales per sq. ft.
$137.0
40.8%
$56.1
17.5%
$68.0
340,500
$200
14.3%
9.9%
$13.6
12.5%
$15.6
90,000
$175
2.9%
13.6%
$18.7
19.0%
$23.0
108,300
$210
5.0%
0.7%
$1.0
10.0%
$1.1
7,600
$145
20.8%
6.8%
$9.3
15.0%
$10.9
66,100
$165
10.0%
2.9%
$4.0
15.0%
$4.7
18,500
$255
n/a
6.9%
$9.5
25.0%
$12.7
50,000
$255
n/a
Total Study Area expenditure calculated in Table 10. Distribution of sales based on in-home consumer telephone survey results and TER's professional
judgement.
1)
2)
3)
4)
5)
6)
Some figures shown may not match the corresponding entry in Table 10 due to rounding.
Inflow estimates based on the results of licence plate surveys and TER's professional judgement.
For the purpose of this analysis, TER defines the 'Daniel Street Commercial Area' to be comprised of the following retail nodes: Daniel Street Corridor, Arnprior
Shopping Centre and Winners Circle.
Proposed size of Other NFOR space and entry sales per square foot level based on TER estimate.
11.3
Other NFOR Market Impact Analysis
Table 11, opposite, examined the impact of the introduction of 50,000 square feet of
ancillary Other NFOR space on the Site, as well as the addition of Other NFOR space
identified for potential development in the Primary Zone. The Other NFOR space
proposed at the Site will increase the amount of commercial retail and service space
in the market by approximately 6.4% and will contribute to modernizing the supply of
commercial space in the Arnprior market.
The following observations are made in terms of directional impact:
•
In 2007, Primary Zone Other NFOR retailers currently have a 33.2% market
share of Other NFOR expenditure potential derived from the Study Area. In
TER’s opinion, a market share this low is indicative of a shortage of competitive
Other NFOR retail space in the market.
•
The introduction of the new Other NFOR space in the Primary Zone will result
in some sales transfers from existing Other NFOR retailers in the short term.
These sales impacts will be distributed throughout the Primary Zone. Sales
volumes are forecast to return or exceed base year levels over the study
period.
•
The majority of sales support for the new Other NFOR space proposed on the
Site will be derived from the recapture of expenditures currently leaving the
market.
It is the opinion of TER that there is no risk of closure of any Other NFOR retailers in
the Study Area due to the addition of Other NFOR space on the Site.
11.4
Other NFOR Market Demand and Impact Analysis Conclusion
There is sufficient demand over the study period to warrant the phased development
of 50,000 square feet of ancillary Other NFOR space on the Site, in addition to Other
NFOR space identified for potential development in the Primary Zone. It is TER’s
professional opinion that the proposed new Other NFOR space on the Site will
recapture a portion of Study Area residents’ expenditures currently leaving the market
and will contribute to modernizing the inventory of commercial space in Arnprior.
Furthermore, the addition of Other NFOR uses on the Site will not adversely impact
the viability of other businesses situated in the Daniel Street Commercial Area,
Downtown Core or elsewhere in the Primary Zone.
26
Appendix A – Inventory of Competitive Retail Space
An inventory of all commercial retail and service space was undertaken by TER in the
Primary Zone of the Study Area in January 2008. Table A-1 and the accompanying
map illustrating the location commercial nodes in the Primary Zone, provides a
summary of all retail and service space in the Primary Zone. This appendix also
contains maps illustrating the location of department stores, supermarkets and
Canadian Tire stores in the Study Area and surrounding vicinity.
A-1
PRIMARY ZONE RETAIL NODES
1)
2)
3)
4)
5)
6)
Downtown Core
Winners Circle
Madawaska Boulevard, East of River
Other Arnprior, West of River
1
5
6
2
3
4
Subject
Site
NOTE: For the purpose of this analysis, TER defines the ‘Daniel Street Commercial Area’ to be comprised of the following
retail nodes Daniel Street Corridor, Arnprior Shopping Centre and Winners Circle.
TABLE A-1
SUMMARY OF PRIMARY ZONE COMPETITIVE RETAIL AND SERVICE SPACE
Nodes
(1
Downtown
Core
Daniel Street
Corridor
Arnprior
Shopping
Centre
1
2
3
Winners
Circle
Sub Total
Daniel Street
Commercial
Area (2
4
2-4
Madawaska
Boulevard - Other Arnprior
East of River West of River
5
6
TOTAL
PRIMARY
ZONE
1-6
Food Oriented Retail (FOR)
Supermarkets
Other Food
Sub-Total Food Oriented Retail (FOR)
0
0
33,200
23,100
56,300
0
0
56,300
8,400
3,500
0
0
3,500
1,700
800
14,400
8,400
3,500
33,200
23,100
59,800
1,700
800
70,700
Non Food Oriented Retail (NFOR)
Department Stores
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
General Merchandise
15,400
21,000
42,900
0
63,900
0
0
79,300
Clothing & Accessories
16,600
0
20,700
0
20,700
0
0
37,300
9,400
0
4,100
0
4,100
7,000
0
20,500
19,400
12,500
1,700
1,700
15,900
0
0
35,300
110,100
Building & Outdoor Home Supplies
Sub-Total Non Food Oriented Retail (NFOR)
6,900
40,200
0
0
40,200
59,100
3,900
37,700
0
2,900
3,500
6,400
0
3,700
47,800
105,400
73,700
72,300
5,200
151,200
66,100
7,600
330,300
Other Retail & Service Space
Liquor / Beer / Wine
0
7,200
0
0
7,200
4,600
0
11,800
Food Services
15,700
13,600
5,000
7,000
25,600
19,400
5,900
66,600
Personal Services
19,500
1,200
2,900
0
4,100
600
500
24,700
Financial and Real Estate Services
28,300
7,800
4,100
0
11,900
7,800
900
48,900
105,000
16,600
6,100
1,500
24,200
24,900
10,200
164,300
Sub-Total Other Retail & Service Space
Other Services
168,500
46,400
18,100
8,500
73,000
57,300
17,500
316,300
Total Occupied Space
282,300
123,600
123,600
36,800
284,000
125,100
25,900
717,300
Vacant
37,700
2,900
6,200
6,000
15,100
5,400
0
58,200
Vacancy Rate (%)
11.8%
2.3%
4.8%
14.0%
5.0%
4.1%
0.0%
7.5%
320,000
126,500
129,800
42,800
299,100
130,500
25,900
775,500
Grand Total
Based on an inventory conducted by TER in January 2008. All measurements are rounded to the nearest 100 square feet.
For the purpose of this analysis, TER defines the 'Daniel Street Commercial Area' to be comprised of the following retail nodes: Daniel Street Corridor, Arnprior Shopping
Centre and Winners Circle.
1)
2)
DEPARTMENT STORES SURROUNDING ARNPRIOR
Pembroke
Kanata
Bells
Corners
Carleton
Place
Primary Zone
Secondary Zone West
Secondary Zone East
Subject Site
SUPERMARKETS IN AND SURROUNDING ARNPRIOR
6
1
Kanata 3
2
Stittsville
Carleton
Place 5
Primary Zone
Secondary Zone West
Secondary Zone East
Subject Site
SUPERMARKETS
1. Arnprior
2.Stittsville
3. Kanata
A&P
No Frills
Your Independent Grocer
4. Bells Corners
5. Carleton Place
Loeb
Loblaws
Price Chopper
Price Chopper
Food Basics
Loblaws
Loeb
Real Canadian Superstore
Sobeys
6. Renfrew
Loeb
4 Bells
Corners
CANADIAN TIRE STORES
IN AND SURROUNDING ARNPRIOR
Pembroke
Kanata
Bells
Corners
Carleton
Place
Primary Zone
Secondary Zone West
Secondary Zone East
Subject Site
Appendix B – Licence Plate Survey
Licence plate surveys are commonly employed to determine the customer draw of a
single retail location, retail shopping plaza/centre, or retail node. Typically, the results
are used as input into the delineation of a Study Area.
Licence Plate Survey Approach and Limitations
Licence plate surveys consist of recording the licence plates of vehicles leaving a
retail parking lot. Typically, the recording of licence plates is distributed over two to
three days (including a Saturday) at various times of the day, to ensure a
representative sample.
Once the licence plates have been recorded, they are submitted to the Ministry of
Transportation (MTO). The MTO provides the corresponding Dissemination Area (DA)
based on the address of the registered owner of the vehicle. Leased vehicles are also
tracked to the address of the registered operator, not the leasing company. A DA is a
small geographical area composed of one or more neighbouring blocks, with a
population of 400 to 700 persons. All of Canada is divided into DAs.
The results of the DA information obtained from the MTO are summarized and
mapped by TER. This information is used in determining the customer draw of the
various locations surveyed. If licence plate surveys were conducted at multiple
locations, the aggregated results provide an indication of the customer draw of the
node or community.
It should be noted that licence plate surveys have some limitations when determining
the customer draw of a single retail location, retail shopping plaza/centre, or retail
node. Some of these limitations are outlined below:
• Licence plate surveys do not factor in pedestrian traffic or customers using
public transit;
• The user of the vehicle may not be the owner of that vehicle and therefore,
the DA corresponding to the address of the registered owner of the vehicle
may not reflect the customer draw; and
• A licence plate survey counts the number of cars at a location, but does not
survey the actual expenditures made. Therefore, although the survey
approximates the customer draw of the retail location, the proportion of
expenditures may differ geographically.
Despite these limitations, a licence plate survey is a valuable tool when determining
the customer draw of a single retail location, retail shopping plaza/centre, or retail
node.
B-1
Licence Plate Survey
Typically, licence plate surveys are conducted to estimate Trade Area/Study Area
boundaries and inflow factors. A survey of vehicle licence plates was undertaken at
the following two locations in the Primary Zone:
• No Frills supermarket at Winners Circle retail centre; and
• Arnprior Shopping Centre (anchored by an A&P supermarket and a Hart
general merchandise store);
The survey distribution is illustrated in Table B-1. The time periods, distributions and
locations of the exit sampling areas were determined by TER.
The survey was conducted by TER over three days: Thursday January 31, Friday
February 1 and Saturday February 2, 2008. In total, 900 licence plate surveys were
recorded. TER identified that 16 duplicate licence plates were recorded in the sample.
These duplicates were removed from the sample submitted to MTO. In addition 1 outof-province licence plate was also removed from the sample submitted to MTO. As a
result, a total of 883 licence plates were submitted to MTO and 870 were returned as
DA codes. The 1 out of province plate removed from the sample has been included as
inflow in this analysis.
Table B-2 illustrates the results of the licence plate survey sorted by Study Area zone
and location. Maps plotting the origins of shoppers, as defined by the approximate
location of the registered owners of vehicles, are also provided for each sample
location.
B-2
TABLE B-1
VEHICLE LICENCE PLATE SURVEY SAMPLING DISTRIBUTION (1
Arnprior Shopping Centre (2
No Frills
Parking Lot
26
32
33
39
130
Percent
Distribution
20%
25%
25%
30%
100%
Location 1
13
16
16
20
65
Location 2
13
16
16
20
65
Percent
Distribution
20%
25%
25%
30%
100%
Friday, February 1, 2008
Open - 11am
11am - 2:30pm
2:30pm - 5:00pm
5:00pm - Close
Daily Total
29
36
36
44
145
20%
25%
25%
30%
100%
15
18
18
22
73
15
18
18
21
72
20%
25%
25%
30%
100%
Saturday, February 2, 2008
Open - 11am
11am - 2:00pm
2:00pm - Close
Daily Total
61
61
53
175
35%
35%
30%
100%
31
31
26
88
31
31
25
87
35%
35%
30%
100%
Total Surveys
450
Thursday, January 31, 2008
Open - 11am
11am - 2:30pm
2:30pm - 5:00pm
5:00pm - Close
Daily Total
Samples based on traffic flow patterns, field observations and site inspections.
2) Arnprior Shopping Centre is anchored by an A&P supermarket and a Hart general merchandise store.
1)
450
TABLE B-2
VEHICLE LICENCE PLATE SURVEY RESULTS BY LOCATION (1
Primary Zone
Secondary Zone West
Secondary Zone East
Total Study Area
Quebec
Other
Total
Total Surveys Returned
% Share of
Licence Plate
Surveys
Returned
Total
No Frills
% Share of
Licence Plate
Surveys
Returned
Arnprior
Shopping
Centre (2
% Share of
Licence Plate
Surveys
Returned
224
93
55
372
51.6%
21.4%
12.7%
85.7%
240
83
39
362
54.9%
19.0%
8.9%
82.8%
464
176
94
734
53.3%
20.2%
10.8%
84.3%
1
61
62
0.2%
14.1%
14.3%
0
75
75
0.0%
17.2%
17.2%
1
136
137
0.1%
15.6%
15.7%
434
100%
437
100%
871
100.0%
Survey results based on Ministry of Transportation "Vehicle Ownership Registration" information for licence plates recorded
over the period January 31 - February 2, 2008. See Table B-1 for sampling distribution information.
1)
NO FRILLS SUPERMARKET
LICENCE PLATE SURVEY RESULTS
Primary Zone
Secondary Zone West
Secondary Zone East
Subject Site
NOTE: In most cases single icons represent multiple customers.
ARNPRIOR SHOPPING CENTRE
LICENCE PLATE SURVEY RESULTS (1
Primary Zone
Secondary Zone West
Secondary Zone East
Subject Site
NOTE: In most cases single icons represent multiple customers.
Appendix C – Study Area In-Home Consumer Survey Results
TER contracted Network Research Field Services (Network Research) to undertake
an in-home consumer telephone survey. Approximately 600 surveys were completed
in April 2008 and included in our analysis. Network Research was provided with a
detailed survey form and a sampling distribution for the 15 geographic areas as shown
in Table C-1 and the accompanying maps.
Network Research drew the sample and conducted the interviews. The results of the
survey were coded and tabulated by TER.
A summary of the survey results are indicated in Tables C-2 to C-19. The results of
this survey research were incorporated into the market demand and impact analysis
included in this report.
C-1
TABLE C-1
IN-HOME CONSUMER TELEPHONE SURVEY SAMPLING DISTRIBUTION
Sample Area
Primary Zone
1 Town of Arnprior - East of the Madawaska River.
2 Town of Arnprior - West of the Madawaska River and East of Elgin St.
3 Town of Arnprior - South of Daniel St. or South of White Lake Rd. and West of the Madawaska River.
4 Town of Arnprior - North of Daniel St. or North of White Lake Rd. and West of Elgin St.
5 Township of McNab/Braeside - South of Neilson St. and East of Abigail St.
Total Primary Zone
Secondary Zone West
6 Township of McNab/Braeside - North of Hwy. 17 and either South of McLean Dr. (County Rd. 54) or South of Golf Club Rd.
7 Township of McNab/Braeside - South of Hwy .17 and South of Calabogie Rd. (Country Rd. 508).
8 Township of Greater Madawaska - South of Calabogie Rd. (County Rd. 508) and either East of Hydro Dam Rd. or East of
Wabun Lake Rd .
9 Township of Lanark Highlands - North of Clyde River (2 and West of County Rd. 511.
10 Township of Lanark Highlands - North of Tatlock Rd. (County Rd 9) and East of County Rd. 511.
11 Town of Mississippi Mills - North of any of the following roads: Tatlock Rd. (County Rd. 9), Bellamy Mills Rd., Bennies
Corners Rd., Blakeney Rd., Ridge Rd. or Panmure Rd. (Regional Rd. 46).
12 City of Ottawa - North of Panmure Rd. and West of Hwy. 417.
Total Secondary Zone West
Secondary Zone East
13 City of Ottawa - North of Panmure Rd. or North of Thomas A. Dolan Pkwy. (Regional Rd. 46), West of Regional Rd. 5 and
East of Hwy. 417.
14 City of Ottawa - North of Thomas A. Dolan Pkwy. (Regional Rd. 46), West of Regional Rd. 9 and East of Regional Rd. 5.
15 City of Ottawa - North of Thomas A. Dolan Pkwy. (Regional Rd. 46) and East of Regional Rd 9.
Total Secondary Zone East
2006
Population
Population
Distribution
Survey
Distribution
2,039
1,208
685
3,266
779
7,977
25.6%
15.1%
8.6%
40.9%
9.8%
100.0%
51
30
17
82
20
200
2,079
2,977
1,079
21.3%
30.5%
11.1%
43
61
22
209
420
2,457
2.1%
4.3%
25.2%
4
9
50
534
9,755
5.5%
100.0%
11
200
2,404
22.1%
44
3,339
5,132
10,875
30.7%
47.2%
100.0%
61
95
200
(1
1)
Based on unadjusted 2006 Census data calculated using PCensus software.
2)
For reference purposes, Clyde River runs adjacent to the following roads: Folger, Peterson's, K&P Trail, Clyde Forks, Flower Station, Lavant-Darling, French Line and
Waddle Creek.
PRIMARY ZONE SAMPLING AREAS
McNAB/
BRAESIDE
5
2
1
4
OTTAWA
3
ARNPRIOR
Madawaska
River
SECONDARY ZONE WEST SAMPLING AREAS
6
Hwy 17
McNAB /
BRAESIDE
GREATER
MADAWASKA
7
12
11
8
10
Hydro Dam Rd /
Wabun Lake Rd
MISSISSIPPI
MILLS
9
LANARK
HIGHLANDS
SECONDARY ZONE EAST SAMPLING AREAS
15
14
OTTAWA
13
TABLE C-2
QUESTION 1 - SUMMARY OF STUDY AREA RESIDENTS' DEPARTMENT STORE EXPENDITURES BY LOCATION (past 3 months)
Primary Zone
Sears - Ottawa - Carling Shopping Centre - 2165 Carling Avenue
Sears - Ottawa - Rideau Centre - 50 Rideau Street
Sears - Ottawa - Saint-Laurent Shopping Centre - 1250 Saint-Laurent Boulevard
The Bay - Ottawa - Bayshore Shopping Centre - 100 Bayshore Drive
The Bay - Ottawa - Rideau Centre - 73 Rideau Street
The Bay - Ottawa - St-Laurent Shopping Centre - 1200 Saint-Laurent Boulevard
Wal-Mart - Barrhaven - 3651 Stranherd Drive
Wal-Mart - Kanata - 500 Earl Grey Drive
Wal-Mart - Ottawa - 1350 Richmond Road
Wal-Mart - Ottawa - 2210 Bank Street
Zellers - Gloucester - Gloucester Centre - 1980 Ogilvie Road
Zellers - Kanata - Hazeldean Mall - 300 Eagleson Road
Zellers - Nepean (Bells Corners) - 59 Robertson Road
Zellers - Nepean - Bayshore SC - 100 Bayshore Drive
Zellers - Ottawa - 1055 St-Laurent Boulevard
Zellers - Ottawa - Billings Bridge Plaza - 2277 Riverside Drive
Zellers - Ottawa - Heritage Place - 156 Sparks St
Subtotal Ottawa
Wal-Mart (Supercentre) - Renfrew - 980 O'Brien Road
Subtotal Renfrew
Wal-Mart (Supercentre) - Carleton Place - 450 McNeely Avenue
Subtotal Carleton Place
Wal-Mart - Pembroke - 1108 Pembroke Street East
Zellers - Pembroke - West End Mall - 1200 Pembroke Street West
Subtotal Pembroke
Sears - North Bay - Northgate Square - 1500 Fisher St
Wal-Mart - North Bay - 1500 Fisher St (Fisher St & Hwy 17)
Zellers - North Bay - 1899 Algonquin Avenue
Subtotal North Bay
Wal-Mart - Smiths Falls - 114 Lombard Street
Zellers - Smiths Falls - County Fair Shopping Centre - 215 Brockville Street
Subtotal Smith Falls
Sears - Other
The Bay - Other
Wal-Mart - Other
Zellers - Other
Subtotal Other Ontario
Sears - Hull - Les Galeries de Hall - 320 Boul Saint-Joseph
Wal-Mart - Hull - 35 Boul de Plateau (Boul de Plateau & Boul St-Raymon)
Zellers - Montreal, QC
Subtotal Quebec
Department Store - US
Subtotal Department Store - US
Total
19.7%
0.0%
0.0%
7.6%
0.4%
0.2%
0.0%
28.9%
1.8%
0.2%
0.0%
5.6%
0.0%
0.9%
0.6%
0.1%
0.0%
66.0%
31.5%
31.5%
1.5%
1.5%
0.2%
0.0%
0.2%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.5%
0.0%
0.0%
0.6%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
0.1%
100.0%
Secondary Zone West
10.2%
0.0%
0.2%
6.5%
0.2%
0.0%
0.0%
17.1%
0.7%
0.0%
0.7%
3.1%
1.0%
0.4%
0.8%
0.3%
0.0%
41.2%
39.2%
39.2%
13.0%
13.0%
2.5%
0.5%
3.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
0.1%
0.5%
0.2%
0.7%
0.2%
1.0%
0.0%
0.9%
2.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
0.1%
0.7%
0.7%
100.0%
Secondary Zone East
16.8%
0.1%
0.8%
12.1%
1.0%
0.1%
0.2%
43.1%
3.3%
0.3%
0.0%
12.7%
1.7%
2.4%
0.1%
0.2%
0.0%
95.0%
1.9%
1.9%
2.3%
2.3%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.6%
0.6%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
0.0%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
0.1%
100.0%
NOTE: Expenditures are based on the results of the in-home consumer telephone survey completed on behalf of TER in April 2008. These results have not been adjusted or
calibrated. Totals may not add due to rounding.
TABLE C-3
QUESTION 1 - SUMMARY OF STUDY AREA RESIDENTS' DEPARTMENT STORE FOOD RELATED EXPENDITURES (past 3 months)
Primary Zone
Sears - Ottawa - Carling Shopping Centre - 2165 Carling Ave
Sears - Ottawa - Rideau Centre - 50 Rideau St
Sears - Ottawa - Saint-Laurent Shopping Centre - 1250 Boul Saint-Laurent
The Bay - Ottawa - Rideau Centre - 73 Rideau St
The Bay - Ottawa - St Laurent Shopping Centre - 1200 St Laurent Blvd
Zellers - Ottawa - 1055 St Laurent Boulevard
Subtotal Ottawa
Subtotal Renfrew
Subtotal Pembroke
Zellers - North Bay - 1899 Algonquin Ave
Subtotal North Bay
Wal-Mart - Smiths Falls - 114 Lombard Street (Hwy 15 & Ferrara Dr)
Zellers - Smiths Falls - County Fair Shopping Centre - 215 Brockville St
Subtotal Smith Falls
Sears - Other Ontario
The Bay - Other Ontario
Wal-Mart - Other Ontario
Zellers - Other Ontario
Subtotal Quebec
Subtotal Department Store - US
Total
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.7%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
30.1%
1.9%
0.4%
0.0%
0.2%
0.0%
0.0%
0.3%
0.0%
0.0%
33.6%
62.3%
62.3%
4.1%
4.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
100.0%
Secondary Zone West
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
8.6%
0.1%
0.0%
1.7%
0.6%
0.2%
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
0.0%
11.5%
54.5%
54.5%
27.0%
27.0%
6.1%
0.4%
6.5%
0.0%
0.0%
0.4%
0.4%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
100.0%
Secondary Zone East
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.4%
63.5%
7.5%
0.7%
0.0%
8.2%
0.0%
0.3%
0.0%
0.7%
0.0%
81.5%
8.2%
8.2%
10.3%
10.3%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
100.0%
TABLE C-4
QUESTION 1 - SUMMARY OF STUDY AREA RESIDENTS' DEPARTMENT STORE EXPENDITURES BY DEPARTMENT STORE BANNER
(past 3 months)
Primary Zone
Sears - Ottawa - Carling Shopping Centre - 2165 Carling Avenue
Sears - Ottawa - Rideau Centre - 50 Rideau St
Sears - Ottawa - Saint-Laurent Shopping Centre - 1250 Saint-Laurent Boulevard
Sears - Other Ontario
Subtotal Sears
The Bay - Ottawa - Rideau Centre - 73 Rideau Street
The Bay - Ottawa - St Laurent Shopping Centre - 1200 St Laurent Boulevard
The Bay - Other Ontario
Subtotal The Bay
Wal-Mart - Smiths Falls - 114 Lombard Street
Wal-Mart - Other Ontario
Subtotal Wal-Mart
Zellers - North Bay - 1899 Algonquin Avenue
Zellers - Ottawa - 1055 St Laurent Boulevard
Zellers - Smiths Falls - County Fair Shopping Centre - 215 Brockville Street
Zellers - Other Ontario
Subtotal Zellers
Subtotal Department Stores - US
Total
0.0%
19.7%
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
0.0%
19.8%
7.6%
0.4%
0.2%
0.5%
8.7%
0.0%
1.5%
0.0%
28.9%
0.0%
1.8%
0.2%
0.2%
31.5%
0.0%
0.0%
64.1%
0.0%
5.6%
0.0%
0.0%
0.9%
0.6%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
7.3%
0.1%
0.1%
100.0%
Secondary Zone West
0.0%
10.2%
0.0%
0.2%
0.2%
0.0%
10.6%
6.5%
0.2%
0.0%
1.0%
7.6%
0.0%
13.0%
0.0%
17.1%
0.0%
0.7%
0.0%
2.5%
39.2%
0.5%
0.1%
73.1%
0.7%
3.1%
0.1%
1.0%
0.4%
0.8%
0.3%
0.0%
0.4%
0.2%
0.9%
0.1%
8.0%
0.7%
0.7%
100.0%
Secondary Zone East
0.0%
16.8%
0.1%
0.8%
0.0%
0.0%
17.7%
12.1%
1.0%
0.1%
0.0%
13.2%
0.2%
2.3%
0.0%
43.1%
0.0%
3.3%
0.3%
0.0%
1.9%
0.0%
0.1%
51.3%
0.0%
12.7%
0.6%
1.7%
2.4%
0.1%
0.2%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
17.7%
0.1%
0.1%
100.0%
TABLE C-5
QUESTION 2 - SUMMARY OF STUDY AREA RESIDENTS' TOTAL WAREHOUSE MEMBERSHIP CLUB EXPENDITURES (past 3 months)
Primary Zone
Costco - Kanata - 770 Silver Seven Road
Costco - Nepean - 1849 Merivale Road
Costco - Gloucester - 1900 Cyrville Road
Costco - Kingston - 1015 Centennial Drive
Total
99.8%
0.2%
0.0%
0.0%
100.0%
Secondary Zone West
94.7%
2.8%
1.6%
0.9%
100.0%
Secondary Zone East
98.6%
1.4%
0.0%
0.0%
100.0%
TABLE C-6
QUESTION 2 - SUMMARY OF STUDY AREA RESIDENTS' WAREHOUSE MEMBERSHIP CLUB EXPENDITURES - FOOD & GROCERY
(past 3 months)
Primary Zone
Costco - Kanata - 770 Silver Seven Road
Costco - Nepean - 1849 Merivale Road
Costco - Gloucester - 1900 Cyrville Road
Costco - Kingston - 1015 Centennial Drive
Total
99.6%
0.4%
0.0%
0.0%
100.0%
Secondary Zone West
95.8%
1.8%
1.0%
1.4%
100.0%
Secondary Zone East
98.1%
1.9%
0.0%
0.0%
100.0%
TABLE C-7
QUESTION 3 - SUMMARY STUDY AREA RESIDENTS' CANADIAN TIRE EXPENDITURES (past 3 months)
Primary Zone
Canadian Tire - Arnprior - 245 Daniel Street South
Subtotal Primary Zone
Canadian Tire - Kanata - 8181 Campeau Drive
Canadian Tire - Nepean (Bells Corners) - 85 Robertson Road
Canadian Tire - Ottawa - 1660 Carling Avenue
Canadian Tire - Ottawa - 1170 Heron Road
Subtotal Ottawa
Canadian Tire - Carleton Place - 485 McNeely Avenue
Canadian Tire - Perth - 45 Dufferin Street
Canadian Tire - Renfrew - 1050 O'Brien Road
Canadian Tire - Shawville (QC) - Highway 148
Canadian Tire - Non Ontario
Subtotal Other Canadian Tire
Total
91.0%
91.0%
4.3%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
4.3%
0.4%
0.0%
4.2%
0.0%
0.0%
4.7%
100.0%
Secondary Zone West
53.5%
53.5%
12.1%
0.7%
0.0%
0.0%
12.8%
12.1%
3.5%
18.1%
0.0%
0.0%
33.7%
100.0%
Secondary Zone East
13.2%
13.2%
75.8%
2.5%
0.6%
0.6%
79.5%
5.0%
0.0%
2.3%
0.0%
0.0%
7.3%
100.0%
TABLE C-8
QUESTION 4 - SUMMARY STUDY AREA RESIDENTS' GENERAL MERCHANDISE STORES EXPENDITURES (past 3 months) (1
Primary Zone
Downtown Core
Madawaska Boulevard - East of River
Winners Circle
Other Arnprior West of River
Braeside
Calabogie
Pakenham
White Lake
Other Secondary Zone West
Subtotal Secondary Zone West
Dunrobin
Fitzroy Harbour
Kinburn
Woodlawn/Constance Bay
Subtotal Secondary Zone East
Bells Corners (Nepean)
Carp
Kanata
Richmond
Stittsville
Subtotal Ottawa West of Hwy 416
Almonte
Carleton Place
Cobden
Kemptville
Ottawa East of Hwy 416
Pembroke
Perth
Petawawa
Renfrew
Smiths Falls
Other Ontario
Quebec
Other Canada
Subtotal Other Canada
US
Subtotal US
Total
60.5%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
32.8%
0.0%
93.2%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
1.4%
0.0%
0.2%
1.6%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
3.4%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
1.4%
0.0%
0.3%
5.2%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
100.0%
Secondary Zone West
45.3%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
31.8%
0.0%
77.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.5%
0.8%
0.0%
1.3%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.6%
0.0%
0.8%
1.4%
3.6%
6.1%
0.0%
0.0%
1.1%
0.2%
2.2%
0.2%
6.0%
0.1%
0.6%
20.2%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
100.0%
Secondary Zone East
32.3%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
16.5%
0.0%
48.9%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
0.0%
22.5%
0.0%
8.4%
31.0%
0.1%
1.4%
0.0%
0.0%
16.5%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
2.0%
20.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
100.0%
1) The general merchandise stores expenditure category excludes department store, warehouse membership clubs and Canadian Tire expenditures.
TABLE C-9
QUESTION 5 - STUDY AREA RESIDENTS' CLOTHING & ACCESSORIES STORES EXPENDITURES (past 3 months)
Primary Zone
Downtown Core
Winners Circle
Braeside
Calabogie
Pakenham
White Lake
Dunrobin
Fitzroy Harbour
Kinburn
Carp
Kanata
Richmond
Stittsville
Almonte
Carleton Place
Cobden
Kemptville
Pembroke
Perth
Petawawa
Renfrew
Smiths Falls
Other Ontario
Quebec
Other Canada
US
Subtotal US
Total
11.9%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
24.6%
0.0%
36.4%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
2.2%
0.0%
10.3%
0.0%
0.0%
12.5%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
37.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
2.1%
2.6%
6.9%
48.7%
0.0%
1.8%
1.8%
0.5%
0.5%
100.0%
Secondary Zone West
7.7%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
24.0%
0.0%
31.7%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
4.9%
0.0%
0.0%
4.9%
1.5%
2.5%
0.0%
0.0%
37.6%
1.0%
4.6%
0.0%
9.4%
0.0%
0.9%
57.6%
0.0%
0.3%
0.3%
5.5%
5.5%
100.0%
Secondary Zone East
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
10.8%
0.0%
10.8%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
5.4%
0.0%
21.3%
0.0%
0.4%
27.1%
0.2%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
60.5%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
60.7%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
1.3%
1.3%
100.0%
TABLE C-10
QUESTION 6 - STUDY AREA RESIDENTS' MISCELLANEOUS RETAILERS EXPENDITURES (past 3 months)
Primary Zone
Downtown Core
Winners Circle
Braeside
Calabogie
Pakenham
White Lake
Dunrobin
Fitzroy Harbour
Kinburn
Carp
Kanata
Richmond
Stittsville
Almonte
Carleton Place
Cobden
Kemptville
Pembroke
Perth
Petawawa
Renfrew
Smiths Falls
Other Ontario
Quebec
Other Canada
US
Subtotal US
Total
22.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.3%
25.1%
4.2%
51.6%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
24.5%
0.0%
0.0%
24.5%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
20.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
3.8%
0.0%
0.1%
23.9%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
100.0%
Secondary Zone West
8.3%
0.0%
0.0%
3.5%
13.5%
2.7%
27.9%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.6%
0.0%
31.5%
0.0%
0.0%
32.1%
5.3%
2.3%
0.0%
0.0%
17.2%
1.6%
0.4%
0.0%
10.8%
0.0%
2.1%
39.8%
0.1%
0.0%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
100.0%
Secondary Zone East
1.2%
0.0%
0.0%
0.4%
1.9%
0.0%
3.6%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
4.4%
1.3%
68.2%
0.0%
0.1%
74.0%
0.8%
0.5%
0.0%
0.0%
18.8%
0.2%
0.0%
0.0%
0.8%
0.0%
0.3%
21.4%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
100.0%
TABLE C-11
QUESTION 7 - STUDY AREA RESIDENTS' BUILDING & OUTDOOR HOME SUPPLIES STORES EXPENDITURES (past 3 months)
Primary Zone
Downtown Core
Winners Circle
Braeside
Calabogie
Pakenham
White Lake
Dunrobin
Fitzroy Harbour
Kinburn
Carp
Kanata
Richmond
Stittsville
Almonte
Carleton Place
Cobden
Kemptville
Pembroke
Perth
Petawawa
Renfrew
Smiths Falls
Other Ontario
Quebec
Other Canada
US
Subtotal US
Total
0.0%
23.0%
52.5%
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
75.6%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
15.0%
0.0%
0.0%
15.0%
0.0%
8.4%
0.0%
0.0%
1.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
9.4%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
100.0%
Secondary Zone West
0.1%
10.4%
19.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
29.4%
0.0%
0.9%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.9%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
27.4%
0.0%
0.1%
27.5%
6.5%
18.1%
0.0%
0.0%
5.7%
0.5%
0.0%
0.0%
7.2%
0.0%
2.2%
40.2%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
2.0%
2.0%
100.0%
Secondary Zone East
0.0%
2.2%
8.2%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
10.4%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
2.5%
71.8%
0.5%
1.0%
76.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
12.5%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.9%
13.6%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
100.0%
TABLE C-12
Question 8 - STUDY AREA RESIDENTS' FURNITURE, HOME FURNISHINGS & ELECTRONICS STORES EXPENDITURES (past 6 months)
Primary Zone
Downtown Core
Winners Circle
Braeside
Calabogie
Pakenham
White Lake
Dunrobin
Fitzroy Harbour
Kinburn
Carp
Kanata
Richmond
Stittsville
Almonte
Carleton Place
Cobden
Kemptville
Pembroke
Perth
Petawawa
Renfrew
Smiths Falls
Other Ontario
Quebec
Other Canada
US
Subtotal US
Total
33.0%
0.0%
5.9%
0.0%
1.1%
0.0%
40.0%
8.6%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
8.6%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
23.5%
0.0%
0.0%
23.5%
4.5%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
23.4%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
27.9%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
100.0%
Secondary Zone West
21.5%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
1.5%
0.0%
22.9%
7.1%
0.0%
5.1%
0.0%
4.9%
12.2%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
16.7%
0.0%
0.0%
16.7%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
26.0%
0.0%
2.9%
0.0%
14.3%
0.0%
0.0%
43.3%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
95.1%
Secondary Zone East
3.6%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.4%
0.0%
4.1%
0.0%
0.0%
1.1%
0.0%
0.0%
1.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
1.7%
0.0%
45.4%
0.0%
0.0%
47.1%
0.0%
0.4%
0.0%
0.0%
36.2%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
3.4%
0.0%
0.0%
40.0%
7.7%
0.0%
7.7%
0.0%
0.0%
100.0%
TABLE C-13
Question 9 - STUDY AREA RESIDENTS' PHARMACIES & PERSONAL CARE STORES EXPENDITURES (past month)
Primary Zone
Downtown Core
Winners Circle
Braeside
Calabogie
Pakenham
White Lake
Dunrobin
Fitzroy Harbour
Kinburn
Carp
Kanata
Richmond
Stittsville
Almonte
Carleton Place
Cobden
Kemptville
Pembroke
Perth
Petawawa
Renfrew
Smiths Falls
Other Ontario
Quebec
Other Canada
US
Subtotal US
Total
52.7%
41.2%
0.0%
0.1%
3.6%
0.0%
97.5%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
0.0%
1.6%
0.0%
0.0%
1.8%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.5%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
0.0%
0.0%
0.7%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
100.0%
Secondary Zone West
28.9%
26.2%
0.0%
3.2%
0.7%
0.0%
59.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.3%
0.2%
5.9%
0.0%
0.0%
6.5%
17.8%
2.3%
0.0%
0.0%
6.3%
0.0%
0.1%
0.0%
6.9%
0.0%
0.0%
33.3%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
1.2%
1.2%
100.0%
Secondary Zone East
5.9%
8.6%
0.0%
0.0%
1.4%
0.0%
15.9%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
1.2%
9.8%
58.4%
0.0%
2.1%
71.6%
2.1%
0.7%
0.0%
0.0%
9.2%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.5%
0.0%
12.5%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
100.0%
TABLE C-14
Question 10 - STUDY AREA RESIDENTS' SUPERMARKET & OTHER GROCERY STORES EXPENDITURES (past month)
Primary Zone
A&P - Arnprior - Arnprior Shopping Centre - 375 Daniel Street South
No Frills (Jack and Faith's) - Arnprior - Winners Circle - 39 Winners Circle Drive
Food Basics - Kanata - 150 Katimavik Road
Loblaws - Kanata - 200 Earl Grey Drive
Loeb - Kanata - 4048 Carling Avenue
Real Canadian Superstore - Kanata - 760 Eagleson Road
Sobeys - Kanata - 700 Terry Fox Drive
Your Independent Grocer - Kanata - 300 Eagleson Road
Subtotal Kanata
Loeb - Bells Corners (Nepean) - 3655 Richmond Road
Loblaws - Bells Corners (Nepean) - 59A Robertson Road
Price Chopper - Bells Corners (Nepean) - 150 Robertson Road
Subtotal Bells Corners (Nepean)
YIG - Stittsville (Brown's) - 1251 Stittsville Main Street
Subtotal Stittsville
Loblaws Banner - Other Ottawa
Real Canadian Superstore Banner - Other Ottawa
Food Basics Banner - Other Ottawa
Loeb Banner - Other Ottawa
Sobeys Banner - Other Ottawa
Your Independent Grocer Banner - Other Ottawa
Subtotal Ottawa East of Hwy 416
Price Chopper - Carleton Place - 110 Lansdowne Avenue
Your Independent Grocer (Steve's) - Carleton Place - 455 McNeely Avenue
Loeb - Renfrew - 83 Raglan Street South
No Frills - Renfrew - 680 O'Brien Road
Subtotal Renfrew
Loeb - Perth - 50 Wilson Street West
Your Independent Grocer (Hendrik's) - Perth - 80 Dufferin Road
Subtotal Perth
Food Basics - Smiths Falls - 275 Brockville Street
Moncion Grocers - Pembroke - 425 Pembroke Street East
No Frills (Mike and Lori's) - North Bay - 975 McKeown Avenue
Real Canadian Superstore - Brockville - 1972 Parkdale Avenue
Your Independent Grocer - Embrun - 753 Notre Dame Street
Your Independent Grocer - Almonte - 401 Ottawa Street
Other Supermarkets - US
Subtotal US Supermarkets
Total
49.6%
41.7%
91.3%
0.0%
0.6%
0.0%
0.6%
0.9%
0.0%
2.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.3%
0.3%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
1.4%
1.4%
0.0%
4.3%
4.3%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.6%
0.6%
100.0%
Secondary Zone West
30.6%
28.3%
58.8%
0.6%
1.3%
0.1%
0.8%
0.0%
1.1%
3.9%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.6%
0.5%
0.8%
0.0%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
1.1%
1.6%
2.5%
4.1%
3.2%
11.0%
14.2%
0.3%
0.4%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
0.1%
0.0%
16.3%
16.7%
0.0%
0.0%
100.0%
Secondary Zone East
8.8%
17.0%
25.7%
6.4%
23.8%
22.4%
2.8%
1.5%
3.7%
60.7%
0.2%
0.5%
0.7%
1.5%
5.0%
4.7%
1.5%
0.8%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
2.3%
0.0%
0.5%
0.5%
1.7%
0.3%
2.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
0.0%
0.4%
1.8%
2.3%
0.0%
0.0%
99.6%
TABLE C-15
QUESTION 11 - STUDY AREA RESIDENTS' OTHER FOOD STORES EXPENDITURES (past month) (1
Primary Zone
Downtown Core
Winners Circle
Braeside
Calabogie
Pakenham
White Lake
Dunrobin
Fitzroy Harbour
Kinburn
Carp
Kanata
Richmond
Stittsville
Almonte
Carleton Place
Cobden
Kemptville
Pembroke
Perth
Petawawa
Renfrew
Smiths Falls
Other Ontario
Quebec
Other Canada
US
Subtotal US
Total
56.9%
0.0%
14.8%
0.0%
0.0%
20.2%
92.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
7.5%
0.0%
0.0%
7.5%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.5%
0.5%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
100.0%
Secondary Zone West
10.5%
0.0%
3.8%
0.0%
0.0%
9.8%
24.1%
12.3%
4.0%
1.3%
6.7%
0.0%
24.5%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.7%
0.0%
18.2%
0.0%
0.0%
18.9%
4.2%
2.9%
0.0%
0.0%
10.9%
0.0%
1.8%
0.0%
0.0%
0.4%
12.3%
32.5%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
100.0%
Secondary Zone East
0.4%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
1.4%
1.8%
0.0%
0.0%
4.2%
0.0%
0.0%
4.2%
16.2%
3.9%
1.9%
7.5%
29.5%
1.2%
0.1%
56.2%
0.0%
0.0%
57.5%
0.0%
0.6%
0.0%
0.0%
6.5%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
7.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
100.0%
1) The 'Other Food Stores' expenditure category is comprised of convenience stores and specialty food stores su ch as meat markets, fish and seafood markets, fruit and
vegetable markets and other special food stores as defined by Statistics Canada NAICS categories.
TABLE C-16
QUESTION 12 - HOUSEHOLD SIZE
1
2
3
4
5
Over 5 Persons
No Response
Total
Frequency
Percent
109
268
78
88
39
17
3
602
18.1%
44.5%
13.0%
14.6%
6.5%
2.8%
0.5%
100.0
Frequency
Percent
240
49
27
10
9
221
6
26
14
602
39.9%
8.1%
4.5%
1.7%
1.5%
36.7%
1.0%
4.3%
2.3%
100.0
Frequency
Percent
16
56
91
142
134
160
3
602
2.7%
9.3%
15.1%
23.6%
22.3%
26.6%
0.5%
100.0
Frequency
Percent
186
416
602
30.9%
69.1%
100.0
Cumulative
Percent
18.1%
62.6%
75.6%
90.2%
96.7%
99.5%
100.0%
TABLE C-17
QUESTION 13 - EMPLOYMENT STATUS
Employed outside of the home - Full-Time
Employed outside of the home - Part-Time
Employed Full-Time and working out of the home
Employed Part-Time and working ouf of the home
Unemployed
Retired
Student
Homemaker
Other
Total
Cumulative
Percent
39.9%
48.0%
52.5%
54.2%
55.6%
92.4%
93.4%
97.7%
100.0%
TABLE C-18
QUESTION 14 - AGE BRACKET
Under 25
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65 and Over
Refused
Total
Cumulative
Percent
2.7%
12.0%
27.1%
50.7%
72.9%
99.5%
100.0%
TABLE C-19
QUESTION 15 - PRIMARY SHOPPER
Male Primary Shopper
Female Primary Shopper
Total
Cumulative
Percent
30.9%
100.0%
TOWN OF ARNPRIOR
TELEPHONE CONSUMER SURVEY
For Office Use
Interviewer:
_______________________
Verified by:
________________
Date of Interview: ___________________
Good ________________. My name is ____________________ of Network Research, a market research company. We are conducting a survey of
people's shopping habits and I would like to ask you a few questions. I assure you we are not selling anything.
A.
May I speak with the person in your household who does most of the shopping?
YES:
GO TO QUESTION B.
NO:
TERMINATE INTERVIEW. THIS IS NOT A COMPLETED SURVEY.
None
.......PROBE TO SPEAK WITH FEMALE/MALE HEAD OF HOUSEHOLD AND IF
NEITHER ARE AVAILABLE, TERMINATE INTERVIEW AND RECORD.
B.
In the last THREE MONTHS, have you done any shopping whatsoever?
YES: GO TO QUESTION C.
NO:
C.
TERMINATE INTERVIEW. THIS IS NOT A COMPLETED SURVEY.
INTERVIEWER: Ask the appropriate question below from the list for the SAMPLE AREA you are calling:
Do you live in the…
Interviewer: Please Watch Quota
Circle Sample Area
E.
1
Town of Arnprior - East of the Madawaska River
2
Town of Arnprior - West of the Madawaska River and East of Elgin St
3
Town of Arnprior - Either South of Daniel Street or South of White Lake Road and West of the Madawaska River
4
Town of Arnprior - Either North of Daniel Street or North of White Lake Road and West of Elgin Street
5
Township of McNab/Braeside - South of Neilson St and East of Abigail St
6
Township of McNab/Braeside - North of Hwy 17 and either South of McLean Dr (County Road 54) or South of Golf Club Rd
7
Township of McNab/Braeside - South of Hwy 17 and South of Calabogie Rd (Country Rd 508)
8
Township of Greater Madawaska - South of Calabogie Rd (County Rd 508) and either East of Hydro Dam Rd or East of Wabun Lake Rd
9
Township of Lanark Highlands - North of the Clyde River and West of County Rd 511
10
Township of Lanark Highlands - North of Tatlock Rd (County Rd 9) and East of County Rd 511
11
Town of Mississippi Mills - North of any of the following roads: Tatlock Rd (County Rd 9), Bellamy Mills Rd, Bennies Corners Rd, Blakeney Rd, Ridge Rd or Panmure Rd (Regional Rd 46)
12
City of Ottawa - North of Panmure Rd and West of Hwy 417
13
City of Ottawa - Either North of Panmure Rd or North of Thomas A. Dolan Pkwy (Regional Road 46), West of Regional Rd 5 and East of Hwy 417
14
City of Ottawa - North of Thomas A. Dolan Pkwy (Regional Rd 46), West of Regional Rd 9 and East of Regional Rd 5
15
City of Ottawa - North of Thomas A. Dolan Pkwy (Regional Rd 46) and East of Regional Rd 9
What community is your residence in?
City/Township/Community:
F.
Could you please tell me your 6 digit postal code at this residence?
circle
No / Refused:
1
INTERVIEWER: Please record data below and continue with survey
Phone Number:
Address:
Time Started:
City/Township/Community:
am / pm
Time Finished:
INTERVIEWER: Please ensure that information is complete, then proceed to Question 1a.
Page 1
am / pm
1 a)
In the past THREE MONTHS, have you shopped in a DEPARTMENT STORE, such as The Bay, Sears, Wal-Mart or Zellers?
Yes
................ 1
[GO TO QUESTION
1 b)]
No
................ 2
[SKIP TO QUESTION
2 a)]
FOR EACH "YES" RESPONSE, ASK THE FOLLOWING QUESTIONS TOGETHER
1 b)
What is the name of the store and where is it located?
1 c)
About how much did you spend during the past THREE MONTHS at this store in total?
1 d)
1 d)
And how much of this was spent on items that you would normally find in a supermarket, such as food and groceries, health and beauty aids and cleaning supplies?
1
b)
Name of Store
1 b)
Location
Community/Shopping Centre/Street Location
1 c)
Amount Spent in Total
1 d)
Supermarket Items
Sears
Hull - Les Galeries de Hall - 320 Boul Saint-Joseph
Sears
North Bay - Northgate Square - 1500 Fisher St
1
$
.00
$
.00
2
$
.00
$
Sears
.00
Ottawa - Carling Shopping Centre - 2165 Carling Ave
3
$
.00
$
.00
Sears
Ottawa - Rideau Centre - 50 Rideau St
4
$
.00
$
.00
Sears
Ottawa - Saint-Laurent Shopping Centre - 1250 Boul Saint-Laurent
5
$
.00
$
.00
The Bay
Ottawa - Bayshore Shopping Centre - 100 Bayshore Dr
6
$
.00
$
.00
The Bay
Ottawa - Rideau Centre - 73 Rideau St
7
$
.00
$
.00
The Bay
Ottawa - St Laurent Shopping Centre - 1200 St Laurent Blvd
8
$
.00
$
.00
Wal-Mart
Barrhaven - 3651 Stranherd Dr (Stranherd Dr & Greenbank Rd)
9
$
.00
$
.00
Wal-Mart (Supercentre)
Carleton Place - 450 McNelley Avenue
10
$
.00
$
.00
Wal-Mart
Hull - 35 Boul de Plateau (Boul de Plateau & Boul St-Raymon)
11
$
.00
$
.00
Wal-Mart
Kanata - 500 Earl Grey Dr (Hwy 7 & Terry Fox Dr.)
12
$
.00
$
.00
Wal-Mart
North Bay - 1500 Fisher St (Fisher St & Hwy 17)
13
$
.00
$
.00
Wal-Mart
Ottawa - 1350 Richmond Rd (Richmond Rd & Carling Ave)
14
$
.00
$
.00
Wal-Mart
Ottawa - 2210 Bank St (Hunt Club & Bank St)
15
$
.00
$
.00
Wal-Mart
Pembroke - 1108 Pembroke St E (Hwy 148 & Angus Campbell Rd)
16
$
.00
$
.00
Wal-Mart (Supercentre)
Renfrew - 980 O'Brien Rd (O'Brien Rd & Wrangler Rd)
17
$
.00
$
.00
Zellers
Gloucester - Gloucester Centre - 1980 Ogilvie Rd
18
$
.00
$
.00
Zellers
Kanata - Hazeldean Mall - 300 Eagleson Rd
19
$
.00
$
.00
Zellers
North Bay - 1899 Algonquin Ave
20
$
.00
$
.00
Zellers
Ottawa - 1055 St Laurent Blvd
21
$
.00
00
$
.00
00
Zellers
Ottawa - Billings Bridge Plaza - 2277 Riverside Dr
22
$
.00
$
.00
Zellers
Ottawa - Heritage Place - 156 Sparks St
23
$
.00
$
.00
Zellers
Pembroke - West End Mall - 1200 Pembroke St W
24
$
.00
$
.00
OTHER [SPECIFY]
Sears
95
$
.00
$
.00
The Bay
96
$
.00
$
.00
Wal-Mart
97
$
.00
$
.00
Zellers
98
$
.00
$
.00
Other
99
$
.00
$
.00
CIRCLE
CODE(S)
Have you shopped at any other DEPARTMENT STORES IN THE PAST THREE MONTHS?
IF YES, REPEAT QUESTION 1 b) to 1 d) as OFTEN AS NECESSARY. IF NO GO TO 2 a)
Page 2
2 a)
In just the past THREE MONTHS, have you shopped at a WAREHOUSE MEMBERSHIP CLUB, such as Costco or Sam's Club?
Circle
Yes ….
1
No…..
2
[GO TO QUESTION
[SKIP TO QUESTION
2 b)]
2 f) BELOW]
2 b)
What is the name of the club and where is it located?
2 c)
About how much did you spend during the past THREE MONTHS at this club in TOTAL?
2 d)
And how much of this was spent on items that you would normally find in a supermarket, such as food and groceries, health and beauty aids and cleaning supplies?
2 e)
2 b)
Name of Store
2 b)
Location
2 c)
Amount Spent in Total
Costco
Kanata - 770 Silver Seven Road
1
$
.00
$
.00
Costco
Nepean - 1849 Merivale Road
2
$
.00
$
.00
Costco
Gloucester - 1900 Cyrville Road
3
$
.00
$
.00
OTHER [SPECIFY]
CIRCLE
CODE(S)
2 d)
Supermarket Items
CODE(S)
Costco
97
$
.00
$
.00
Sam's Club
98
$
.00
$
.00
Other WMC
99
$
.00
$
.00
Have you shopped at any other WAREHOUSE MEMBERSHIP CLUB in the past THREE MONTHS?
IF YES, REPEAT QUESTIONS 2 b) to 2 d) AS OFTEN AS NECESSARY. IF NO, GO TO 2 f)
2 f)
Are you yourself a member of a WAREHOUSE MEMBERSHIP CLUB, such as Costco or Sam's Club?
Circle
3 a)
Yes …..
1
[GO TO
3 a)]
No ….
2
[GO TO
3 a)]
In just the past THREE MONTHS, have you shopped at a Canadian Tire Store?
Circle
Yes ….
1
No…..
2
[GO TO QUESTION
[SKIP TO QUESTION
3 b)]
4 a) Below]
3 b)
Where is the store located?
3 c)
About how much did you spend during the past THREE MONTHS at this store?
3 b)
Name of Store
3 b)
Location
CIRCLE
CODE(S)
Canadian Tire
Arnprior - 245 Daniel Street South
1
$
.00
Canadian Tire
Carleton Place - 485 McNeely Avenue
2
$
.00
Canadian Tire
Kanata - 8181 Campeau Drive
3
$
.00
Canadian Tire
Renfrew - 1050 O'Brien Road
4
$
.00
Canadian Tire
Shawville (QC) - Highway 148
5
$
.00
OTHER [SPECIFY]
99
$
.00
Canadian Tire
3 d)
3 c)
Amount Spent
Have you shopped at any other CANADIAN TIRE store in the past THREE MONTHS?
IF YES, REPEAT QUESTION 3 b) to 3 c) above as often as necessary.
If NO, GO to 4 a)
Page 3
4 a)
In just the past THREE MONTHS, have you shopped at any of the following GENERAL MERCHANDISE STORES?
Circle
Circle
(i)
A discount store, such as Giant Tiger?
Yes
1
[GO TO
4 b]
No
2
[SKIP TO (ii)]
(ii)
A dollar store?
Yes
1
[GO TO
4 b]
No
2
[SKIP TO (iii)]
(iii)
A variety or general store?
Yes
1
[GO TO
4 b]
No
2
[SKIP TO (iv)]
(iv)
A Sears Catalogue outlet?
Yes
1
[GO TO
4 b]
No
2
[GO TO 5 a)]
4 b)
4 c)
4
b)
Name of Store
4
b)
Location
CIRCLE
4 c)
Amount Spent
CODE(S)
A Buck or Two
Arnprior - Arnprior Shopping Centre - 375 Daniel Street South
4
$
.00
Giant Tiger
Arnprior - 80 Elgin Street West
1
$
.00
Hart
4
$
.00
Super Lucky Dollar Store
1
$
.00
OTHERS [ SPECIFY]
Name of Store
4 d)
Location
OTHER Arnprior
10
$
.00
Almonte
35
$
.00
Calabogie
12
$
.00
Carleton Place
36
$
.00
Cobden
37
$
.00
Ottawa
38
$
.00
Pakenham
13
$
.00
Pembroke
39
$
.00
Renfrew
40
$
.00
White Lake
14
$
.00
OTHER Ontario
96
$
.00
Quebec
97
$
.00
OTHER Canada
98
$
.00
USA
99
$
.00
Have you shopped at any other GENERAL MERCHANDISE STORE in the past THREE MONTHS?
If NO, GO to 5 a)
Page 4
5 a)
In just the past THREE MONTHS, have you shopped at any of the following CLOTHING, SHOE or ACCESSORIES STORES?
Circle
Circle
(i)
A men's, women's or children's wear store?
Yes
1
[GO TO
5 b]
No
2
[SKIP TO (ii)]
(ii)
A family apparel or unisex apparel store?
Yes
1
[GO TO
5 b]
No
2
[SKIP TO (iii)]
(iii)
An accessory store, such as ties, hosiery or lingerie?
Yes
1
[GO TO
5 b]
No
2
[SKIP TO (iv)]
(iv)
A shoe store?
Yes
1
[GO TO
5 b]
No
2
[SKIP TO (v)]
(v)
A jewellery, leather or luggage store?
Yes
1
[GO TO
5 b]
No
2
[GO TO 6 a)]
5 b)
5 c)
5
b)
Name of Store
5 b)
Location
CIRCLE
5 c)
Amount Spent
CODE(S)
Ashley Boutique
Arnprior - 131 John Street North
1
$
.00
Audrey's In Town Fashion
1
$
.00
Belinda's Fashions
1
$
.00
Biba
4
$
.00
Cat's Meow, The
1
$
.00
Collections
Arnprior - 54 Madawaska Street
1
$
.00
Doreens's Gold Bar
Arnprior - Heritage Square - 75 Elgin Street West
1
$
.00
Krieger Jewellers
1
$
.00
Laplante Men's Wear
1
$
.00
Mark's Work Warehouse
4
$
.00
Reitmans
4
$
.00
Sox Plus
4
$
.00
Sports Zone
4
$
.00
Tiny Treasures
1
$
.00
Zeina Fashion & Maternity
4
$
.00
OTHER Arnprior
10
$
.00
Almonte
35
$
.00
Calabogie
12
$
.00
Carleton Place
36
$
.00
Cobden
37
$
.00
Ottawa
38
$
.00
Pakenham
13
$
.00
Pembroke
39
$
.00
Renfrew
40
$
.00
White Lake
14
$
.00
OTHER Ontario
96
$
.00
Quebec
97
$
.00
OTHER Canada
98
$
.00
USA
99
$
.00
OTHERS [ SPECIFY]
Name of Store
5 d)
Location
Have you shopped at any other CLOTHING, SHOE or ACCESSORIES STORE in the past THREE MONTHS?
If NO, GO TO 6 a)
Page 5
6 a)
In just the past THREE MONTHS, have you shopped at any of the following SPECIALTY STORES?
(i)
(ii)
(iii)
(iv)
(v)
(vi)
(vii)
(viii)
(ix)
(x)
A sporting goods store?
A toy store, craft store or hobby shop?
A books, music, CD or tape shop?
An office supplies or stationery store?
A pet store?
A florist or card shop?
A used merchandise store?
A fabric or wool shop?
A gift or novelty shop?
An art gallery?
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Circle
1 GO TO
1 GO TO
1 GO TO
1 GO TO
1 GO TO
1 GO TO
1 GO TO
1 GO TO
1 GO TO
1 GO TO
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
b)
b)
b)
b)
b)
b)
b)
b)
b)
b)
No
No
No
No
No
No
No
No
No
No
Circle
2 [SKIP TO (ii)]
2 [SKIP TO (iii)]
2 [SKIP TO (iv)]
2 [SKIP TO (v)]
2 [SKIP TO (vi)]
2 [SKIP TO (vii)]
2 [SKIP TO (viii)]
2 [SKIP TO (ix)]
2 [SKIP TO (x)]
2 [GO TO 7 a)]
6 b)
6 c)
6
b)
Name of Store
6 b)
Location
CIRCLE
6 c)
Amount Spent
CODE(S)
Antiques Etcetera
1
$
.00
Antiques, Treasures and Treats
1
$
.00
Arnprior Bait Shop
Arnprior - 170 McGonigal Street West
1
$
.00
Arnprior Book Shop
1
$
.00
Arnprior Source for Sports
Arnprior - Winner's Circle - 39 Winner's Circle Drive
3
$
.00
Attic Toy Shop, The
1
$
.00
BB Buy Back
1
$
.00
Chapawee Woodworks
1
$
.00
Citadel Crafts
Arnprior - 102 Joun Street North
1
$
.00
Country Routes 5
1
$
.00
Gallery Gift Shop
1
$
.00
Gilks Signs and Trophies
Arnprior - 87 Daniel Street North
1
$
.00
Howard's Buy, Sell, Trade
1
$
.00
Keeping Company
1
$
.00
Kevin Dodds Gallery
1
$
.00
Main Street Music
1
$
.00
Mel's House of Flowers
5
$
.00
Pet Value
Arnprior - Arnprior Shopping Centre - 375 Daniel Street North
4
$
.00
Play it Again Sports
1
$
.00
Priority Wines
1
$
.00
Sew Inspired
1
$
.00
Signature Flowers Ltd.
1
$
.00
Treasure Chest, The - Antiques
1
$
.00
Valley Brewmaster
Arnprior - Towne Center - 106 McGonigal Street West
1
$
.00
Valley Textiles
1
$
.00
OTHER Arnprior
10
$
.00
Almonte
35
$
.00
Calabogie
12
$
.00
Carleton Place
36
$
.00
Cobden
37
$
.00
Ottawa
38
$
.00
Pakenham
13
$
.00
Pembroke
39
$
.00
Renfrew
40
$
.00
White Lake
14
$
.00
OTHER Ontario
96
$
.00
Quebec
97
$
.00
OTHER Canada
98
$
.00
USA
99
$
.00
OTHERS [ SPECIFY]
Name of Store
6 d)
Location
Have you shopped at any other SPECIALTY STORE in the past THREE MONTHS?
IF YES, REPEAT QUESTION 6 b) to 6 c) above as often as necessary. If NO, GO TO 7 a)
Page 6
7 a)
In just the past THREE MONTHS, have you shopped at any of the following BUILDING AND HOME SUPPLIES STORES?
Circle
Circle
(i) A home improvement centre, such as Rona, Cashway, Home Depot or Lowes?
Yes
1 GO TO
7
b)
No
2 [SKIP TO (ii)]
(ii) A hardware store or lumber yard?
Yes
1 GO TO
7
b)
No
2 [SKIP TO (iii)]
(iii) A paint and wallpaper store?
Yes
1 GO TO
7
b)
No
2 [SKIP TO (iv)]
(iv) A nursery or garden centre?
Yes
1 GO TO
7
b)
No
2 [GO TO 8 a)]
7 b)
7 c)
7
b)
Name of Store
7
Location
7 c)
Amount Spent
Arnprior Glass and Mirror
1
$
.00
Arnprior Colour Centre
Arnprior - 89 McLaughlin Street
5
$
.00
Arnprior Home Hardware
Arnprior - 290 Daniel Street South
1
$
.00
Evenson Heating
1
$
.00
M&R Feeds and Farm Supply Ltd.
Arnprior - 70 Decosta Street
2
$
.00
MacPherson Plumbing and Heating
1
$
.00
Rona Home Centre
Arnprior - 236 Madawaska Boulevard
2
$
.00
Scheel Windows Ltd.
2
$
.00
TSC Store
Arnprior - 60 Staye Court Drive
5
$
.00
CIRCLE
CODE(S)
OTHERS [ SPECIFY]
Name of Store
7 d)
Location
OTHER Arnprior
10
$
.00
Almonte
35
$
.00
Calabogie
12
$
.00
Carleton Place
36
$
.00
Cobden
37
$
.00
Ottawa
38
$
.00
Pakenham
13
$
.00
Pembroke
39
$
.00
Renfrew
40
$
.00
White Lake
14
$
.00
OTHER Ontario
96
$
.00
Quebec
97
$
.00
OTHER Canada
98
$
.00
USA
99
$
.00
Have you shopped at any other BUILDING AND HOME SUPPLIES STORE in the past THREE MONTHS?
Page 7
INTERVIEWER: THE FOLLOWING QUESTION IS FOR SHOPPING HABITS IN THE PAST SIX MONTHS
8 a)
In just the past SIX MONTHS, have you shopped at any of the following HOME FURNISHINGS or ELECTRONICS STORES?
Circle
Circle
(i)
A furniture store, furniture warehouse, or appliance store?
Yes
1 GO TO
8
b)
No
2 [SKIP TO (ii)]
(ii)
A TV, Stereo or Electronics store?
Yes
1 GO TO
8
b)
No
2 [SKIP TO (iii)]
(iii)
A lamp or lighting fixtures store?
Yes
1 GO TO
8
b)
No
2 [SKIP TO (iv)]
(iv)
A computer or software store?
Yes
1 GO TO
8
b)
No
2 [SKIP TO (v)]
(v)
A carpet or flooring shop?
Yes
1 GO TO
8
b)
No
2 [SKIP TO (vi)]
(vi)
A camera or photo supply shop?
Yes
1 GO TO
8
b)
No
2 [SKIP TO (vii)]
(vii)
A drapery or blinds store?
Yes
1 GO TO
8
b)
No
2 [SKIP TO 9 a)]
8 b)
8 c)
About how much did you spend during the past SIX MONTHS at this store?
8
b)
Name of Store
8 b)
Location
8 c)
Amount Spent
Arnprior Floor Covering
Arnprior - 264 Herrick Drive
2
$
.00
Ben's TV and Radio
1
$
.00
PCS Computers
1
$
.00
Pete and Lou's Fireplace and Bath Centre
Arnprior - 264 Herrick Drive
1
$
.00
Photo Max
4
$
.00
Priority Business Services (Bell Mobility)
1
$
.00
Radio Shack (Dr J Audiotronic)
1
$
.00
Robertson Furniture and Sleep Gallery
1
$
.00
Scheel Communications
Arnprior - 8 McGonigal Street West
1
$
.00
Sears Appliance
4
$
.00
CIRCLE
CODE(S)
OTHERS [ SPECIFY]
Name of Store
8 d)
Location
OTHER Arnprior
10
$
.00
Almonte
35
$
.00
Calabogie
12
$
.00
Carleton Place
36
$
.00
Cobden
37
$
.00
Ott
Ottawa
38
$
.00
00
Pakenham
13
$
.00
Pembroke
39
$
.00
Renfrew
40
$
.00
White Lake
14
$
.00
OTHER Ontario
96
$
.00
Quebec
97
$
.00
OTHER Canada
98
$
.00
USA
99
$
.00
Have you shopped at any other HOME FURNISHING STORES in the PAST SIX MONTHS?
Page 8
INTERVIEWER: THE FOLLOWING QUESTION IS FOR SHOPPING HABITS IN THE PAST MONTH
9 a)
In just the PAST MONTH, have you shopped at any of the following PHARMACIES & PERSONAL CARE STORES?
Circle
Circle
(i)
A pharmacy or drug store?
Yes
1 GO TO
9 b)
No
2 [SKIP TO (ii)]
(ii)
A cosmetic store?
Yes
1 GO TO
9 b)
No
2 [SKIP TO (iii)]
(iii)
An optical store?
Yes
1 GO TO
9 b)
No
2 [SKIP TO (iv)]
(iv)
A health food or nutritional supplement store?
Yes
1 GO TO
9 b)
No
2 [SKIP TO 10 a)]
9 b)
9 c)
About how much did you spend during the past MONTH at this store?
9
b)
Name of Store
9 b)
Location
9 c)
Amount Spent
Clancy's Drug Store
1
$
.00
Herbal Magic
3
$
.00
Rexall Drug Store
Arnprior - 22 Baskin Drive East
1
$
.00
Shoppers Drug Mart
1
$
.00
Valley Vision Optical
Arnprior - Arnprior Shopping Centre - 375 John Street South
4
$
.00
CIRCLE
CODE(S)
OTHERS [ SPECIFY]
Name of Store
9 d)
Location
OTHER Arnprior
10
$
.00
Almonte
35
$
.00
Calabogie
12
$
.00
Carleton Place
36
$
.00
Cobden
37
$
.00
Ottawa
38
$
.00
Pakenham
13
$
.00
Pembroke
39
$
.00
Renfrew
40
$
.00
White Lake
14
$
.00
OTHER Ontario
96
$
.00
Quebec
97
$
.00
OTHER Canada
98
$
.00
USA
99
$
.00
Have you shopped at any other DRUG, COSMETIC STORES or OPTICAL STORES?
Page 9
10 a)
In just the past MONTH, have you shopped in a DISCOUNT or FULL SERVICE SUPERMARKET or a GROCERY STORE?
Yes
................ 1
[GO TO QUESTION
10 b)]
No
................ 2
[SKIP TO QUESTION
11 a)]
10 b)
What is the name of the supermarket and where is it located?
10 c)
10 b)
Name of Store
b) b)
Location
CIRCLE
CODE(S)
10 c)
Amount Spent
A&P
1
$
.00
No Frills (Jack and Faith's)
2
$
.00
YIG
Almonte - 401 Ottawa Street
3
$
.00
Loeb
Renfrew - 83 Ragalan Street South
4
$
.00
No Frills
Renfrew - 680 O'Brien Road
5
$
.00
OTHER Arnprior
10
$
.00
Calabogie
12
$
.00
Carleton Place
36
$
.00
Cobden
37
$
.00
Ottawa
38
$
.00
Pakenham
13
$
.00
Pembroke
39
$
.00
White Lake
14
$
.00
OTHER Ontario
96
$
.00
Quebec
97
$
.00
OTHER Canada
98
$
.00
USA
99
$
.00
OTHERS [ SPECIFY]
Name of Store
10 d)
Have you shopped at any other SUPERMARKETS or GROCERY STORES?
Page 10
11
a)
In just the past MONTH, have you shopped at any of the following SPECIALTY FOOD STORES?
Circle
Circle
(i)
A convenience store or jug milk store?
Yes
1 GO TO
11
b)
No
2 [SKIP TO (ii)]
(ii)
A fish, meat or seafood market or deli?
Yes
1 GO TO
11
b)
No
2 [SKIP TO (iii)]
(iii)
A green grocer or fruit & vegetable market?
Yes
1 GO TO
11
b)
No
2 [SKIP TO (iv)]
(iv)
A candy or nut store?
Yes
1 GO TO
11
b)
No
2 [SKIP TO (v)]
(v)
A health food, bulk food or cheese store?
Yes
1 GO TO
11
b)
No
2 [SKIP TO 12 a)]
11
b)
What is the name of the specialty food store and where is it located?
11
c)
11 b)
Name of Store
11
b)
Location
Arnprior Bulk & Natural Foods
1
$
.00
Bonnechere Bakery
1
$
.00
Bonnie Jane's Scones
1
$
.00
Gord's Confectionary
Arnprior - 80 Ottawa Street
5
$
.00
John's Variety Store
1
$
.00
M&M Meat Shop
Arnprior - 345 White Lke Road
5
$
.00
Mac's Milk
1
$
.00
Mac's Milk
Arnprior - 354 White Lake Road
5
$
.00
Valley Roots (Deli)
2
$
.00
11 c)
Amount Spent
CIRCLE
CODE(S)
OTHERS [ SPECIFY]
Name of Store
11
d)
Location
OTHER Arnprior
10
$
.00
Almonte
35
$
.00
Calabogie
12
$
.00
Carleton Place
36
$
.00
Cobden
37
$
.00
Ottawa
38
$
.00
Pakenham
13
$
.00
Pembroke
39
$
.00
Renfrew
40
$
.00
White Lake
14
$
.00
OTHER Ontario
96
$
.00
Quebec
97
$
.00
OTHER Canada
98
$
.00
USA
99
$
.00
Have you shopped at any other SPECIALTY FOOD STORES?
Page 11
Finally these last few questions will help us clarify your answers and compare them with others from the survey.
12
a)
In just the past SIX MONTHS, have you made any
12 b)
IF ANSWER YES - About how much did you spend in the past SIX MONTHS?
purchases using the following three shopping formats?
circle
13 )
YES
NO
(i)
Home Shopping Network
1
2
IF YES, ASK
12 b)
(i) $
.00
(ii)
Mail Order
1
2
IF YES, ASK
12 b)
(ii) $
.00
(iii)
The Internet
1
2
IF YES, ASK
12 b)
(iii) $
.00
How many persons live in your household?
Enter the number of people
14 )
Are you ….?
15 ) In which of the following age groups are you?
[READ LIST]
CIRCLE
16 )
CIRCLE
Employed outside the Home Full-Time
1
Under 25
1
Employed outside the Home Part-Time
2
25-34
2
Employed full time and working out of your home?
3
35-44
3
Employed part time and working out of your home?
4
45-54
4
Unemployed
5
55-64
5
Retired
6
65 and over
6
Student
7
Refused
7
Homemaker
8
Other (SPECIFY: )
9
INTERVIEWER: PLEASE RECORD
INTERVIEW COMPLETED WITH:
Male primary shopper
1
Female primary shopper
2
THANK YOU FOR YOUR TIME AND CO-OPERATION !
Page 12
Appendix D – Basic Assumptions and Definition of Terms
Basic Assumptions
TER has studied the market demand and impacts of numerous proposed retail
developments, many of which are now in operation throughout the Province. TER
understands the challenges associated with making forecasts and recognizes that
deviations from historic patterns are likely to occur. Nonetheless, it remains our
opinion that basic assumptions are necessary to conduct retail planning exercises
such as this one in the Town of Arnprior. These basic assumptions are outlined
below:
•
The population forecasts are presumed to be accurate. If these forecasts prove
to diverge significantly from the population levels realized the conclusions of
this report may require revision.
•
All proposed major retail developments in the Primary Zone, for which
applications have been submitted, have been recognized in the TER analysis.
•
The assumptions regarding sales performance of existing retailers are
considered to be reliable. If actual sales volumes become available, TER
reserves the right to revise the analysis and conclusions, as required.
This report and its conclusions should be reviewed in light of these basic assumptions.
Gross Leasable Area (GLA)
Gross leasable area (GLA) is the total floor area designed for tenant occupancy and
exclusive use, typically including basements, upper floors and mezzanines. It is
expressed in square feet, and measured from the centre line of joint partitions and
from outside wall faces. GLA is the area on which tenants pay rent, and which
produces income for a tenant. Since it lends itself readily to measurement and
comparison, GLA has been adopted by the shopping centre industry as its standard
for statistical comparison.
In TER’s inventory of competitive space in the Primary Zone, only ground floor retail
and storage space was included. Mezzanines and basement space has only been
included when the entire retail sales area is located in an upper or lower level of a
building.
Net Undercoverage
As defined by Statistics Canada, “Net census undercoverage is the difference
between the number of persons who should have been enumerated but were missed
(undercoverage), and the number of persons who were enumerated but who should
D-1
not have been or who were counted more than once (overcoverage). The coverage
studies provide direct estimates of undercoverage of the 1996 and 2001 censuses at
the provincial and territorial level.”
Population Projections
Population forecasts for the Study Area are based on TER’s review of Statistics
Canada historic Census data and published forecast information from the following
sources:
•
Arnprior Development Charges Background Study prepared by McIntosh Perry,
September 2005
•
Prospects for Population, Housing and Jobs, City of Ottawa, November 2007
•
Data provided by the County of Renfrew Economic Development Department
TER used the 2006 Census of Canada to establish a base population for each zone of
the Study Area. The Census base population figures were adjusted for Census Net
Undercoverage using a 2006 Census undercoverage adjustment for the County of
Renfrew and Lanark County. TER extrapolated forecast growth rates from the
referenced population projection sources above and applied these growth rates to the
adjusted Census base population to forecast population levels for the study years.
Per Capita Income
Per capita income represents average total personal income before tax, as defined by
Statistics Canada. The Study Area income indices are based on the results of the
2001 Census of Canada. The detailed calculations that were used in the
determination of the Study Area residents’ per capita income levels have been
summarized in Table D-1 that follows.
Per capita NFOR & FOR Expenditures
TER’s calculation of per capita NFOR & FOR expenditures for the Province of Ontario
in 2007 are based on full year 2007 Retail Trade data and are included in Tables D-2
and D-3.
Study Area Residents’ NFOR & FOR Expenditure Potential
Expenditure potential is the total annual expenditures made by Study Area residents.
This includes purchases made both inside and outside the Study Area. It is calculated
by multiplying the average per capita expenditure indices by the total population of a
Study Area or study zone.
D-2
Real Growth
Real growth refers to the amount that sales volumes or expenditures would increase
in future years with inflation eliminated. Therefore, references to the Canadian dollar,
dealing with both the present and future period, reflect its 2007 value in this report.
For the purposes of our study, a real growth of 1.5% per year for NFOR expenditures
and 0.5% for FOR expenditures has been utilized, based on historic real growth for
retail expenditures in Ontario.
TER Retail and Service Classification System
Statistics Canada no longer publishes Retail Trade data classified by Standard
Industrial Classifications (SIC). The revised system under which the data is published
is known as the North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS). NAICS
retail definitions are included as Tables D-4 and D-5.
The Inventory Classification system used by TER is provided in Table D-6. It is based
on NAICS codes to correspond with the most recently published Statistics Canada
Retail Trade data.
D-3
TABLE D-1
2001 STUDY AREA PER CAPITA INCOME INDICES (1
Study Area Zone
Males 15 years
and over with
income
Male Females 15 years
average
and over with
income
income
Female
average Total Income
income
($Millions)
2001 Total
Population (2
Per Capita
Income (2
Index to
the
Province
Primary Zone
2,859
36,485
3,319
22,835
180
8,049
22,376
90.3
Secondary Zone West
3,531
37,676
3,413
23,906
215
9,049
23,721
95.8
Secondary Zone East
3,914
58,920
3,717
32,756
352
10,239
34,418
139.0
4,217,790
40,900
4,380,770
25,129
282,592
11,410,045
24,767
100.0
Ontario
1)
2)
Based on income data obtained from the 2001 Census of Canada. Some figures may not add due to data suppression at the Dissemination Area level.
Unadjusted 2001 Census figures used in the calculation of per capita income.
TABLE D-2
PER CAPITA NFOR EXPENDITURE ESTIMATES (excluding WMC Food component), 2007
2007
Total Retail
(1
Sales ($ M)
Per Capita
Distribution
Non-Department
Store Distribution
Building & Outdoor Home Supplies Stores
Clothing & Accessories Stores
Department Stores
General Merchandise Stores (excluding Department Stores and FOR WMC)
Total NFOR Expenditures (as defined by TER)
$10,769.8
$8,608.9
$11,253.7
$9,547.3
$9,827.7
$6,804.1
$7,842.3
$64,653.8
$841
$672
$879
$746
$768
$531
$613
$5,050
16.7%
13.3%
17.4%
14.8%
15.2%
10.5%
12.1%
100.0%
19.3%
15.8%
19.6%
17.2%
N/A
13.7%
14.4%
100.0%
NFOR Category Adjustments
TOTAL NAICS NFOR RETAIL TRADE CATEGORY SALES (Ontario)
(2
Estimated FOR WMC sales removed from General Merchandise category
Total NFOR Expenditures (as defined by TER)
$66,574.4
$1,920.6
$64,653.8
$5,200
$150
$5,050
Non Food Oriented Retail Categories
Ontario - Estimated 2007 Population (3
12,803,861
1)
Based on full year 2007 retail sales by NAICS category provided by Statistics Canada, Retail Trade, catalogue 63-005-XIE.
TER estimate based on previous research published by various analysts.
3)
July 2007 estimate based on data provided by Statistics Canada, Demographic Quarterly Statistics.
2)
TABLE D-3
PER CAPITA FOR STORE EXPENDITURE ESTIMATES, 2007
2007
Food Oriented Retail Categories
Supermarkets & Other Grocery Stores
Convenience & Specialty Food Stores (2
Total Food Stores
Plus WMC Food Store Related Expenditures (3
Total FOR Expenditures (as defined by TER)
Ontario - Estimated 2007 Population (4
Annualized
Total Retail
Sales ($ M) (1
$22,166.0
$3,201.7
$25,367.7
Per Capita
Distribution
$1,731
$250
$1,981
$150
$2,131
81.2%
11.7%
93.0%
7.0%
100.0%
12,803,861
1)
2)
Based on full year 2007 retail sales by NAICS category provided by Statistics Canada, Retail Trade, catalogue 63-005-XIE.
The Other Food Stores expenditure category is comprised of convenience stores and specialty food stores such as meat markets, fish and seafood
markets, fruit and vegetable markets and other special food stores as defined by Statistics Canada NAICS categories.
3)
TER estimate based on previous research published by various analysts.
4)
July 2007 estimate based on data provided by Statistics Canada, Demographic Quarterly Statistics.
TABLE D-4
NAICS DEFINITIONS OF NFOR ITEMS (1
FURNITURE, HOME FURNISHINGS & ELECTRONICS STORES
44211 Furniture Stores US
This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in retailing new, household and office furniture. These establishments may also retail major appliances,
home electronics, home furnishings and floor coverings, and may provide interior decorating services.
Exclusion(s): Establishments primarily engaged in:
- retailing custom furniture made on the premises (337, Furniture and Related Product Manufacturing)
-
retailing office furniture, office equipment and supplies (45321, Office Supplies and Stationery Stores)
retailing used household furniture (45331, Used Merchandise Stores)
44221 Floor Covering Stores US
This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in retailing new floor coverings, such as rugs and carpets, vinyl floor coverings, wood floor coverings,
and floor tiles, except ceramic. These establishments also typically provide installation and repair services.
- installing, but not retailing, floor coverings (23833,23834, )
- retailing ceramic tiles only or hardwood flooring only (44419, Other Building Material Dealers)
44229 Other Home Furnishings Stores US
This industry comprises establishments, not classified to any other industry, primarily engaged in retailing new home furnishings, such as window treatments,
kitchen and tableware, bedding and linens, brooms and brushes, lamps and shades, and prints and picture frames.
- new furniture retailing (44211, Furniture Stores)
- retailing floor coverings (44221, Floor Covering Stores)
- providing interior decorating services, but not retailing home furnishings (54141, Interior Design Services)
44312 Computer and Software Stores US
This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in retailing new computers, computer peripherals, pre-packaged software, game software and related
products. These establishments may also retail used computer equipment and replacement parts and accessories, and provide repair services.
- retailing electronic toys, such as television (TV) games and hand-held games (45112, Hobby, Toy and Game Stores)
- repairing, without retailing, computers (81121, Electronic and Precision Equipment Repair and Maintenance)
44311 Appliance, Television and Other Electronics Stores US
This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in retailing new household appliances, home audio and video equipment, and other electronic products.
These establishments may also retail used electronics and appliances, provide repair services, and retail computers and computer software.
- computer, computer peripheral equipment and software retailing (44312, Computer and Software Stores)
- electronic toy retailing (45112, Hobby, Toy and Game Stores)
- retailing used household appliances (45331, Used Merchandise Stores)
- repairing, without retailing, televisions or other electronic products (81121, Electronic and Precision Equipment Repair and Maintenance)
44313 Camera and Photographic Supplies Stores US
This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in retailing new cameras, photographic equipment and photographic supplies. These establishments ma
also retail used cameras and photographic equipment, and replacement parts and accessories, and provide repair and film developing services.
- video camera retailing (44311, Appliance, Television and Other Electronics Stores)
- repairing, without retailing, photographic equipment (81121, Electronic and Precision Equipment Repair and Maintenance)
- commercially developing film and photographic prints; one-hour film developing (81292, Photo Finishing Services)
NAICS represents the North American Industrial Classification System.
These definitions are provided by Statistics Canada on the website:
http://www.statcan.ca/english/Subjects/Standard/spec-aggreg/trade-2002/trade-retail02.htm#b
1)
TABLE D-4 (continued)
BUILDING & OUTDOOR HOME SUPPLIES STORES
44411 Home Centres US
This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in retailing a general line of home repair and improvement materials and supplies, such as lumber, doors
and windows, plumbing goods, electrical goods, floor coverings, tools, housewares, hardware, paint and wallpaper, and lawn and garden equipment and supplies.
The merchandise lines are normally arranged in separate sections. These establishments may provide installation and repair services for the merchandise they
44413 Hardware Stores US
This industry comprises establishments, known as hardware stores, primarily engaged in retailing a general line of basic hardware items, such as tools and builders
hardware. These establishments may sell additional product lines, such as paint, housewares and garden supplies, that are not normally arranged in separate
departments.
44412 Paint and Wallpaper Stores US
This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in retailing paint, wallpaper and related supplies.
44419 Other Building Material Dealers US
This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in retailing specialized lines of building materials. These establishments may provide installation services
in addition to retailing.
- retailing a general line of home repair and improvement materials and supplies (44411, Home Centres)
- paint and wallpaper retailing (44412, Paint and Wallpaper Stores)
- retailing a general line of hardware items (44413, Hardware Stores)
44421 Outdoor Power Equipment Stores US
This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in retailing outdoor power equipment. These establishments also retail replacement parts and may
provide repair services.
- repairing, without retailing, outdoor power equipment (81141, Home and Garden Equipment and Appliance Repair and Maintenance)
44422 Nursery Stores and Garden Centres US
This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in retailing nursery and garden products, such as trees, shrubs, plants, seeds, bulbs and sod, that are
predominantly grown elsewhere. These establishments may provide landscaping services.
- growing and retailing nursery stock (11142, Nursery and Floriculture Production)
- wholesaling new or used farm, lawn and garden machinery, equipment and parts (41711, Farm, Lawn and Garden Machinery and Equipment WholesalerDistributors)
- providing landscaping services (56173, Landscaping Services)
1)
PHARMACIES & PERSONAL CARE STORES
44611 Pharmacies and Drug Stores US
This industry comprises establishments, known as pharmacies and drug stores, primarily engaged in retailing prescription or non-prescription drugs and medicines.
These establishments also typically retail snacks, cosmetics, personal hygiene products, greeting cards and stationery, and health aids, and may also retail
confectionery, tobacco products, novelties and giftware, and cameras and photographic supplies.
- retailing food supplement products, such as vitamins, nutrition supplements and body enhancing supplements (44619, Other Health and Personal Care Stores)
44612 Cosmetics, Beauty Supplies and Perfume Stores US
This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in retailing cosmetics, perfumes, toiletries and personal grooming products.
44613 Optical Goods Stores US
This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in retailing and fitting prescription eyeglasses and contact lenses. These establishments may or may not
grind lenses to order on the premises. Establishments primarily engaged in retailing non-prescription sunglasses are also included.
- lens grinding without retailing (33911, Medical Equipment and Supplies Manufacturing)
- operating a private or group practice of optometry (62132, Offices of Optometrists)
44619 Other Health and Personal Care Stores US
This industry comprises establishments, not classified to any other industry, primarily engaged in retailing health and personal care items. Establishments primarily
engaged in retailing health and personal care items, such as vitamin supplements, hearing aids, and medical equipment and supplies are included.
1)
CLOTHING & ACCESSORIES STORES
44811 Men's Clothing Stores US
This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in retailing a general line of new, men's and boys', ready-to-wear clothing. These establishments may
also provide alterations on the garments they sell.
- retailing men's custom clothing made on the premises (3152, Cut and Sew Clothing Manufacturing)
- retailing ready-to-wear clothing for both genders and all age groups (44814, Family Clothing Stores)
- retailing men's and boys' clothing accessories (44815, Clothing Accessories Stores)
- retailing a specialized line of apparel, such as raincoats, leather coats, fur apparel and swimwear (44819, Other Clothing Stores)
44812 Women's Clothing Stores US
This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in retailing a general line of new, women's, ready-to-wear clothing, including maternity wear.
- retailing women's custom clothing made on the premises (3152, Cut and Sew Clothing Manufacturing)
- retailing women's clothing accessories (44815, Clothing Accessories Stores)
- retailing a specialized line of clothing, such as bridal gowns, raincoats, leather apparel, fur clothing and swimwear (44819, Other Clothing Stores)
44813 Children's and Infants' Clothing Stores US
This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in retailing a general line of new, children's and infants', ready-to-wear clothing.
- retailing children's and infants', clothing accessories (44815, Clothing Accessories Stores)
44814 Family Clothing Stores US
This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in retailing a general line of new, ready-to-wear clothing for men, women and children, without
specializing in sales for an individual gender or age group.
- retailing new, men's and boys', ready-to-wear clothing (44811, Men's Clothing Stores)
- retailing new, women's, ready-to-wear clothing (44812, Women's Clothing Stores)
- retailing children's and infants', ready-to-wear clothing (44813, Children's and Infants' Clothing Stores)
- retailing specialized clothing, such as raincoats, bridal gowns, leather apparel, fur clothing and swimwear (44819, Other Clothing Stores)
44819 Other Clothing Stores US
This industry comprises establishments, not classified to any other industry, primarily engaged in retailing specialized lines of new clothing.
44815 Clothing Accessories Stores US
This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in retailing a single or general line of new clothing accessories.
44821 Shoe Stores US
This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in retailing all types of new footwear. These establishments may also retail shoe-care products.
44831 Jewellery Stores US
This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in retailing jewellery, sterling and plated silverware, and watches and clocks. These establishments may
provide services such as cutting and mounting stones and jewellery repair.
- retailing costume jewellery (44815, Clothing Accessories Stores)
44832 Luggage and Leather Goods Stores US
This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in retailing luggage, briefcases, trunks and related products, and establishments engaged in retailing a
line of leather items.
- retailing a single or general line of leather and non-leather clothing accessories (44815, Clothing Accessories Stores)
- retailing leather coats and other leather clothing articles (44819, Other Clothing Stores)
1)
GENERAL MERCHANDISE STORES
45211 Department Stores US
This industry comprises establishments, known as department stores, primarily engaged in retailing a wide range of products, with each merchandise line
constituting a separate department within the store. Selected departments may be operated by separate establishments, on a concession basis.
Exclusion(s):
- warehouse-style stores engaged in retailing a general line of grocery items in combination with a general line of non-grocery items (45291, Warehouse Clubs
and Superstores)
45291 Warehouse Clubs and Superstores US
This industry comprises establishments, known as warehouse clubs, superstores or supercentres, primarily engaged in retailing a general line of grocery items in
combination with a general line of non-grocery items, and typically selling grocery items in larger formats.
- retailing a general line of grocery items (44511, Supermarkets and Other Grocery (except Convenience) Stores)
- retailing a general line of merchandise in department stores (45211, Department Stores)
45299 All Other General Merchandise Stores US
This industry comprises establishments, not classified to any other industry, primarily engaged in retailing a general line of new merchandise. Establishments known
as home and auto supplies stores, catalogue showrooms, agricultural co-op stores, variety stores and country general stores are included.
- automotive parts retailing (44131, Automotive Parts and Accessories Stores)
- retailing merchandise in catalogue showrooms, without stock (45411, Electronic Shopping and Mail-Order Houses)
1)
MISCELLANEOUS RETAILERS
45111 Sporting Goods Stores US
This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in retailing new sporting goods. These establishments may also retail used sporting goods, and provide
repair services.
- camper and camping trailer retailing (44121, Recreational Vehicle Dealers)
- snowmobile, motorized bicycle and motorized golf cart retailing (44122, Motorcycle, Boat and Other Motor Vehicle Dealers)
- athletic shoe retailing (44821, Shoe Stores)
- repairing or servicing, without selling, sporting goods (81149, Other Personal and Household Goods Repair and Maintenance)
45112 Hobby, Toy and Game Stores US
This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in retailing new toys, games, and hobby and craft supplies.
- retailing software, including game software (44312, Computer and Software Stores)
- retailing artists' supplies or collectors' items, such as coins, stamps, autographs and cards (45399, All Other Miscellaneous Store Retailers)
45113 Sewing, Needlework and Piece Goods Stores US
This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in retailing new sewing supplies, fabrics, patterns, yarns and other needlework accessories. These store
may also retail sewing machines.
- sewing machine retailing (44311, Appliance, Television and Other Electronics Stores)
45114 Musical Instrument and Supplies Stores US
This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in retailing new musical instruments, sheet music and related supplies. These establishments may also
rent and repair musical instruments.
- retailing musical recordings (45122, Pre-Recorded Tape, Compact Disc and Record Stores)
- renting, without retailing, musical instruments (53229, Other Consumer Goods Rental)
- repairing, without retailing, musical instruments (81149, Other Personal and Household Goods Repair and Maintenance)
45121 Book Stores and News Dealers US
This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in retailing new books, newspapers, magazines and other periodicals.
- selling newspapers, magazines, and other periodicals via electronic shopping, mail-order or direct sale (454, Non-Store Retailers)
- delivering newspapers to homes (45439, Other Direct Selling Establishments)
45122 Pre-Recorded Tape, Compact Disc and Record Stores US
This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in retailing new audio and video recordings in any format\medium.
- computer software retailing (44312, Computer and Software Stores)
- retailing pre-recorded tapes, compact discs and records by mail-order (45411, Electronic Shopping and Mail-Order Houses)
45311 Florists US
This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in retailing cut flowers, floral arrangements, and potted plants purchased from others. These
establishments typically prepare the arrangements they sell.
- retailing flowers or nursery stock grown on the premises (11142, Nursery and Floriculture Production)
- retailing trees, shrubs, plants, seeds, bulbs and sod grown elsewhere (44422, Nursery Stores and Garden Centres)
45321 Office Supplies and Stationery Stores US
This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in retailing office supplies or a combination of office supplies, equipment and furniture. Establishments
primarily engaged in retailing stationery and school supplies are also included.
- office furniture retailing (44211, Furniture Stores)
- typewriter retailing (44311, Appliance, Television and Other Electronics Stores)
- computer retailing (44312, Computer and Software Stores)
- greeting card retailing (45322, Gift, Novelty and Souvenir Stores)
1)
45322 Gift, Novelty and Souvenir Stores US
This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in retailing new gifts, novelty merchandise, souvenirs, greeting cards, seasonal and holiday decorations,
and curios. These establishments may also retail stationery.
- stationery retailing (45321, Office Supplies and Stationery Stores)
45331 Used Merchandise Stores US
This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in retailing used merchandise. Establishments primarily engaged in retailing antiques are also included.
- used automobile retailing (44112, Used Car Dealers)
- used RV retailing (44121, Recreational Vehicle Dealers)
- used motorcycle and boat retailing (44122, Motorcycle, Boat and Other Motor Vehicle Dealers)
- used tire retailing (44132, Tire Dealers)
- used mobile home retailing (45393, Mobile Home Dealers)
- retailing a general line of used merchandise on an auction basis (45399, All Other Miscellaneous Store Retailers)
- operating pawnshops (52229, Other Non-Depository Credit Intermediation)
45391 Pet and Pet Supplies Stores US
This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in retailing pets, pet food and pet supplies. These establishments may also provide pet grooming
services.
- providing veterinary services (54194, Veterinary Services)
- providing pet grooming and boarding services (81291, Pet Care (except Veterinary) Services)
45392 Art Dealers US
This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in retailing original and limited edition art works. Establishments primarily engaged in the exhibition of
native art and art carvings for retail sale are also included.
- retailing art reproductions (44229, Other Home Furnishings Stores)
- operating non-commercial art galleries (71211, Museums)
45393 Mobile Home Dealers
This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in retailing new and used mobile homes, parts and equipment. These establishments may provide
installation services in addition to retailing the homes.
- motor home, camper and travel trailer retailing (44121, Recreational Vehicle Dealers)
- retailing prefabricated buildings and kits (44419, Other Building Material Dealers)
45399 All Other Miscellaneous Store Retailers US
This industry comprises establishments, not classified to any other industry, primarily engaged in retailing specialized lines of merchandise, such as tobacco and
tobacco products; artists' supplies; collectors' items, such as coins, stamps, autographs and cards; beer and wine making supplies; swimming pool supplies and
accessories; religious goods; and monuments and tombstones. Establishments primarily engaged in retailing a general line of new and used merchandise on an
auction basis are also included.
- auctioning new and used merchandise on a fee basis (56199, All Other Support Services)
1)
TABLE D-5
NAICS DEFINTIONS OF FOR ITEMS
(1
44511 Supermarkets & Other Grocery (except Convenience) Stores
This industry comprises establishments, known as supermarkets and grocery stores, primarily engaged in retailing a
general line of food, such as canned, dry and frozen foods; fresh fruits and vegetables; fresh and prepared meats,
fish, poultry, dairy products, baked products and snack foods. These establishments also typically retail a range of
non-food household products, such as household paper products, toiletries and non-prescription drugs.
- retailing a limited line of food and convenience items (44512, Convenience Stores)
- retailing prescription drugs in a supermarket, on a concession basis (44611, Pharmacies and Drug Stores)
- retailing a general line of food products as well as a general line of non-food products (45291, Warehouse Clubs
and Superstores)
44512 Convenience Stores
This industry comprises establishments, known as convenience stores, primarily engaged in retailing a limited line of
convenience items that generally includes milk, bread, soft drinks, snacks, tobacco products, newspapers and
magazines. These establishments may retail a limited line of canned goods, dairy products, household paper and
cleaning products, as well as alcoholic beverages, and provide related services, such as lottery ticket sales and
video rental. Exclusion(s): - convenience stores that sell gasoline (44711, Gasoline Stations with Convenience
Stores)
Exclusion(s):
- convenience stores that sell gasoline (44711, Gasoline Stations with Convenience Stores)
44521 Meat Markets
This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in retailing fresh, frozen, or cured meats and poultry.
Delicatessens primarily engaged in retailing fresh meat are included.
44522 Fish and Seafood Markets
This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in retailing fresh, frozen, or cured fish and seafood
products.
44523 Fruit and Vegetable Markets
This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in retailing fresh fruits and vegetables.
- growing vegetables and fruits and selling them at roadside stands (11121,1113, )
44529 Other Specialty Food Stores
This industry comprises establishments, not classified to any other industry, primarily engaged in retailing specialty
foods. Dairy product stores, baked goods stores, and candy, nut and confectionery stores are included.
- retailing candy and confectionery products made on premises, not for immediate consumption (3113, Sugar and
Confectionery Product Manufacturing)
- retailing goods baked on the premises, not for immediate consumption (31181, Bread and Bakery Product
Manufacturing)
retailing food for immediate consumption (e.g., donut and bagel shops) (722, Food Services and Drinking Places)
45291 Warehouse Clubs and Superstores
This industry comprises establishments, known as warehouse clubs, superstores or supercentres, primarily
engaged in retailing a general line of grocery items in combination with a general line of non-grocery items, and
typically selling grocery items in larger formats.
retailing a general line of grocery items (44511, Supermarkets and Other Grocery (except Convenience) Stores)
- retailing a general line of merchandise in department stores (45211, Department Stores)
1)
TABLE D-6
RETAIL AND SERVICE INVENTORY CLASSIFICATION CODES
RETAIL/SERVICE CATEGORIES
NAICS Code
TER CODES
FOOD & BEVERAGE:
Supermarket & Other Grocery Stores
Superstores
Jug Milk
Meat Market
Fish & Seafood
Green Grocer
Bakery
Candy/Nut
Cheese
Delicatessen
Other Food
44511
44511
44512
44521
44522
44523
44529
44529
44529
44529
44529
11
11
12
13
14
15
16
16
16
16
16
GENERAL MERCHANDISE
Discount Department Store
Traditional Department Stores
Warehouse Membership Clubs (e.g. Costco, Sam's Club)
General Merchandise (e.g. Assortment of Dollar Stores)
General Store
Mail Order (e.g., Sears)
Variety
Home and Auto Supply Stores (eg Canadian Tire)
45211
45211
45291
45299
45299
45299
45299
45299
21
21
22
23
23
23
23
24
CLOTHING & ACCESSORIES
Mens/Boys Wear
Ladies Wear
Childrens Wear
Family Wear
Bridal
Furrier
Hosiery
Lingerie
Maternity
Millinery
Unisex Wear
Accessories/Other Apparel (e.g., Ties)
Childrens Shoes
Family Shoes
Ladies Shoes
Mens Shoes
Jewellery
Luggage/Leather Goods
44811
44812
44813
44814
44819
44819
44819
44819
44819
44819
44819
44815
44821
44821
44821
44821
44831
44832
31
32
33
34
35
35
35
35
35
35
35
36
37
37
37
37
38
39
FURNITURE, HOME FURNISHINGS & ELECTRONICS
Furniture/Appliance
Floor Coverings
China/Glassware/Kitchenware
Drapery/Blinds
Lamps & Lighting Fixtures
Linen/Bath
Other Household Furnishings (e.g. picture frames, etc.)
Fireplace Accessories
Vacuums
Appliance
TV/Radio/Stereo
Computer and related incl. software
Camera/Photo Supply
44211
44221
44229
44229
44229
44229
44229
44229
44229
44311
44311
44312
44313
40
41
42
42
42
42
42
42
42
43
43
44
45
PHARMACIES & PERSONAL CARE
Drug Stores
Cosmetics
Optician
Other Health & Personal Care Stores
44611
44612
44613
44619
50
51
52
53
44411
44413
44412
44419
44419
60
61
62
63
63
64
65
66
BUILDING AND OUTDOOR HOME SUPPLIES STORES
Home Improvement Centres
Hardware/Electrical Supply
Paint/Glass/Wallpaper
Electrical wiring supplies & equipment
Plumbing, heating, and a/c eq. & supplies
MISC. Home Supplies (e.g. windows/doors/plumbing/etc.)
Lawn & Garden Centre
Outdoor Power Equipment
44422
44421
Based on TER's interpretation of NAICS retail trade and service category classifications
1)
RETAIL/SERVICE CATEGORIES
NAICS Code
TER CODES
MISCELLANEOUS RETAILERS
Sporting Goods
Toy/Hobby
Fabric
Wool
Musical Instruments
Record/Tape/CDs
Florist
Stationery and Office Supplies
Gift/Novelty/Souvenir
Second-Hand Stores
Pet & Pet Supply
Art Gallery & Artists' Supply
Book / Stationery
Antiques
Sewing Machines
Wine Making
Coin / Stamp
Tobacco
Greeting Cards
Bicycle
Other Miscellaneous Retailers
45111
45112
45113
45113
45114
45122
45311
45321
45322
45331
45391
45392
45321
45331
45113
45399
45112
45399
45322
45111
45399
70
71
72
72
73
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
BEER, WINE & LIQUOR
Liquor
Beer
Wine
44531
44531
44531
95
96
97
SERVICES: EATING & DRINKING
Restaurants (Licenced)
Restaurants (Not Licenced)
Fast Food
Donuts/Cookies/Muffins
Ice Cream/Yogurt
Cafeterias
Specialty Coffee
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
SERVICES: PERSONAL
Beauty/Hair
Barber
Dry Cleaning (Plant)
Dry Cleaning (Pickup)
Laundry
Shoe Repair
Travel Agent
Photographer
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
FINANCIAL AND REAL ESTATE SERVICES
Bank/Trust/Credit Union
Real Estate
Insurance
Brokerage
Accounting
120
127
128
130
131
SERVICES: OTHER
Video Tape Rental
Health/Tanning Salon
Movie Theatre/Cinema
Amusement Arcade
Bowling/Billiards
Medical/Dental
Legal
Post Office
Library
Other Service
121
122
123
124
125
126
129
132
133
134
160
VACANT

Retail Market Demand and Impact

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