Requirements for Sustained Industrial Market Growth

Transcription

Requirements for Sustained Industrial Market Growth
As a result of the frozen capital market and subsequent limited inventory, Denver’s
investment sales market stopped short in 2009, remained sluggish in 1Q10 and
improved slightly in 2Q10. Year-to-date sales total 1,483,503 square feet with a total
volume of $192,622,301.
The development pipeline has diminished to just under 350,000 square feet
under construction and two projects, 1800 Larimer in the CBD and the new FBI
Headquarters in the Northeast submarket, were delivered this quarter. The only major
project under construction is Central Park Tower in the Northwest submarket.
Ross Research believes that in 2Q10, the trends of positive absorption, increased
leasing activity and signs of an improving labor market signal that the market is on
the path to recovery.
Office Market Balance
25.00%
4,000,000
15.00%
0
Supply
Source: Ross Research Services
10
2Q
09
20
20
20
20
20
Absorption
08
5.00%
07
-4,000,000
06
10.00%
05
-2,000,000
Vacancy
Vacancy
20.00%
2,000,000
04
Denver is nicely positioned to take immediate
advantage of an improving job market, ultimately
sustaining the industrial market growth that is
already underway. The Federal Reserve stated that
industrial production rose 1.2 percent in May; and
factories, the single biggest contributor to industrial
activity, stepped up production 0.9 percent — the
third straight monthly increase. Whether this growth
continues remains to be seen, but the groundwork is
in place, with all signs pointing up.
Throughout 2009, median asking rates decreased. However, most submarkets posted
little or no change from 4Q09 to 2Q10, indicating that rental rates are stabilizing.
20
Home building accounts for about 15 percent of
the GDP. In the industrial market, however, the
percentage of warehouses used for distribution of
products for the home building business is even
greater. Again, with an improving job market, new
home sales and home construction will increase
significantly.
The SES submarket also expanded this quarter, posting absorption of 146,228 square
feet, which was due mainly to this quarter’s large move-ins by Catholic Health
Initiatives and Baxa Corporation. Vacancy is 20.06 percent, which is down from
20.21 percent at 2Q09.
03
Consumer spending, which relates
directly to creation of jobs and
consumer confidence, accounts for
Jeff McClintock
over 70 percent of the U.S. Gross
Domestic Product (GDP). Tight
credit, flat wages and a 9.5 percent
unemployment rate continue to keep
the lid on consumption. Government
stimulus in the form of temporary
tax reductions, tax credits for first
time home-buyers, incentives for
buying energy-efficient products
Matt McClintock
and cash-for-clunker programs all
attribute to upward blips in consumption, but longterm sustained consumption growth requires job
growth. Get unemployment down to 7 percent or less
and consumer confidence and spending are sure to
pick up dramatically.
The CBD ended the quarter with solid absorption of 184,480 square feet, bringing
year-to-date absorption to 277,054 square feet and is poised for greater expansion
in the latter half of the year as Xcel completes its move into 1800 Larimer and
numerous GSA tenants move into short-term leases while the Byron G. Rogers Federal
Courthouse undergoes extensive renovations. Vacancy stands at 19.07 percent.
20
From tax write-offs to home-buyer housing incentives,
we’ve seen a lot of effort to improve our economy
over the past few months. Some of it has helped
the industrial market; some hasn’t affected it at
all. There’s no doubt, however, that for sustained
improvement in the industrial sector,
two things need to happen: 1)
increase in consumer spending, and
2) increase in home building.
j u ly 2 0 1 0
As the second quarter of 2010 comes to a close, it is clear that the worst is behind us
both in terms of the local economy and the demand shock that created a significant
downturn in the Denver office market. The fundamentals of the office market have
shown steady, albeit slow, improvement particularly in the core Central Business
District (CBD) and Southeast Suburban (SES) submarkets. In 2Q10, the overall
market posted positive absorption, decreased vacancy, increased leasing activity and
stable rental rates. 2Q10 absorption was 498,432 square feet, which brings year-todate absorption to 708,485 square feet. Overall vacancy decreased slightly from 20.00
percent at 4Q09 to 19.74 percent.
02
Jeff McClintock and Matt McClintock
N um b e r 3
By Lauren Douglas Director of Research
20
Requirements for Sustained
Industrial Market Growth
Volum e 1 5
Denver Office Market Activity
01
market perspective
IE W
20
C o mm e rcial
r e al e stat e
q uart e rl y
Square Feet
V
Frederick Ross company
c o m m e r c i a l r e a l e s t at e
V
Frederick Ross company
IE W
In this issue
Office Market Activity............................. 1
Real Estate Transactions...................... 3
Real Estate Opportunities..................... 4
Apartment Market Activity..................... 6
There are times
when more is
simply better.
Commercial real estate transactions are
complicated. This is the time for more, not
less. You need the power and the pull of the
full-service leader. Frederick Ross Company.
People................................................... 7
Industrial Market Activity....................... 8
Retail Market Activity............................. 8
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Information
contained
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is from sources
Information contained herein, while
not guaranteed,
is from sources we believe reliable.
we believe
reliable.
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AL
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All Rights Reserved
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V IEW Transactions
Rivet Software moves headquarters to Denver
Rivet Software, Inc., the premier provider of standards-based business reporting
and analytics for financial communications, recently relocated its headquarters.
The dynamic and fast-growing software company now occupies 31,819 square
feet in the office building at 4340 South Monaco Street in Denver.
Rivet is the leading XBRL compliance and financial reporting provider in the
world, serving more Fortune 500 companies in meeting their SEC filing needs than
any other company. Tom Lee, Dann Burke and Jon Tilton of Frederick Ross Company
are pleased to have represented Rivet in this transaction. Contact them for additional
information.
United Launch Alliance relocates and expands
headquarters with transactions totaling more
than 440,000 square feet
9501 East Panorama Circle
7630 South Chester Street
7670 South Chester Street
World-renown space rocket company United Launch Alliance, LLC
recently leased over 440,000 square feet of office space for its new
Centennial-based headquarters. These transactions effectively relocate
and combine the current ULA offices scattered across the Denver Metro
area, consolidating them into just one neighborhood. Multiple leases
include 144,202 square feet at 9501 East Panorama Circle; 106,213
square feet at 7630 South Chester Street; 34,401 square feet at 7670
South Chester Street; and 167,917 square feet at 7958 South Chester
Street.
Centennial- based United Launch Alliance is scheduled to phase its
workforce into the new Centennial offices by the end of 2011. Nathan
Johnson, Pete Staab, Tom Lee and Jeff Castleton of Frederick Ross
Company negotiated the above listed transactions on behalf of the
landlords. Contact them for more information.
7958 South Chester Street
Southpark Office Campus building sells for $875,000
A Denver investment group recently purchased the office building at 8151 Southpark Lane in Littleton from
Compass Bank. This 10,298-square-foot medical office building, located in the Southpark Office Campus
sold for $875,000.
Newly constructed, this single-story, stand-alone office/
medical building in Southpark office campus provides
multiple features that attracted the buyer, including a
“Core and Shell” build-out, which allowed the buyer
to finish space to individual specifications. Located on
a high visibility corner location at the intersection of
Southpark Lane and West Canal Court, this property
provides excellent exposure to tenants.
Steve Roesinger and Wade Fletcher of Frederick Ross
Company represented the seller in this transaction. Contact them for more information.
V IEW o p p o rt u n i t i e s
Rare opportunity to purchase commercial property in Stapleton
Professional office/retail space is now available for sale in one of
Stapleton’s most recognized office buildings. Located at 2373 Central
Park Boulevard in Denver, this property offers multiple office/retail condo
units for sale, with high-density residential surrounding the site. Boasting
great architectural style and strong identity, the property is conveniently
located just 10 minutes from downtown and 20 minutes from Denver
International Airport.
Stapleton is the nation’s largest urban redevelopment. Contact Pete
Wycoff, Pete Staab or Austin Kane of Frederick Ross Company for additional information on this Stapleton property.
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We’ve moved!
Frederick Ross Company recently moved to
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and the first LEED Platinum highrise in
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Please note our new company office address:
Frederick Ross Company
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Denver, CO 80202
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2nd Quarter 2010 Market Reports Now Available!
office
“Midtown
continues
to boast the
market’s lowest
vacancy rate, at
11.80 percent.”
To obtain your copy:
industrial
“The East
submarket was
the strongest
performing
metro Denver
submarket.”
retail
“Denver retail
sales in March,
mark the fourth
consecutive
month of
year-on-year
growth.”
• Contact your Ross broker,
• Visit us on-line at www.frederickross.com, or
• Contact Lauren Douglas, Director of Research, at [email protected] or 303.260.4364.
boulder
“Boulder market
posted month
over month
declines in
unemployment
during every
month in
2010.”
V IEW O P P O RT U N I T I E S
Prime Cherry Creek North location in Denver’s premier retail district
Prominently located in the center of the exclusive 16-block
Cherry Creek neighborhood, 210 St. Paul Street in Denver
now offers 9,790 square feet of 1st floor retail or office
space available for lease. This Class AA, first-floor space
showcases store fronts on both 2nd Avenue and St. Paul
Street, providing ultimate traffic and pedestrian exposure.
Situated just one block north of Cherry Creek Mall, the
property offers 26 dedicated on-site covered parking spaces
and excellent demographics.
Join Neiman Marcus, Macy’s, Saks Fifth Avenue, Nordstrom,
and other great national and regional tenants in the area! Contact Susan Karsh, Frank Griffin, Pete Staab or Austin
Kane for more information about this property.
Net leased investment opportunity just off of I-70 in Denver
Two multi-use industrial properties are now available for sale at 4930 and 4950 Colorado Boulevard
in Denver. Just north of Interstate 70, these net leased buildings offer an excellent investment
opportunity, with credit tenants and annual rent increases.
 4930 Colorado Boulevard is 20,399 square feet on a
1.68-acre site. It includes a retail bank and drive through
facility plus warehouse storage used to store excess furniture
& equipment for all Denver U.S. Bank locations. Price:
$1,936,048.
 4950 Colorado Boulevard is 44,800 square feet on a 2.41acre site. This is a warehouse/manufacturing building. Price:
$1,871,016.
Jeff McClintock and Matt McClintock of Frederick Ross
Company are the listing brokers for these properties. Contact
them for more information.
Completely redeveloped office space in the Highlands District
Renovations are complete and all-new office space is now
available for lease at 2901 West 19th Avenue in Denver.
Designed by cutting edge Denver architects Bothwell
Davis George, this 13,000-square-foot, two-story office
building is located near Mile High Stadium, with amazing
Denver skyline views. The property offers great access to
Interstate 25, Highlands, LoDo and the Central Business
District, along with an excellent parking ratio and
building signage.
Multiple suite options exist at this newly-renovated property. Contact Frederick Ross Company’s Keith
Krombach for more details.
V IEW A p a r t m e n t R e a lt y a d v i s o r s
a F r e d e r ic k R o s s C o m pa n y
market perspective
Denver’s Apartment Market is
HOT, HOT, HOT!!!
RECENT TRANSACTI O NS . . . ARA RECENT TRANSACTI O n s . . .
By Andy Hellman
Apartment Realty Advisors
It’s official, the Denver apartment market is
heating up and showing no signs of cooling
down any time soon! This is the news that
investors have been waiting to hear for nearly
a decade. Over the past ten years, apartment
owners have seen concessions increase to a high
of 17.4 percent in 2003, while vacancies rose to
Andy Hellman
14.4 percent during the same year. For
many, the road to recovery has been
8,000
frustratingly slow, and although the light at the end of the
7,000
tunnel seemed close, it remained out of reach.
Retreat at City Center
Aspen Court
Aurora, Colorado
$22,500,000 | 225 Units
Colorado Springs, Colorado
$1,430,000 | 61 Units
Absorption vs. Vacancy
25.0%
20.0%
6,000
10.0%
3,000
2,000
5.0%
1,000
0
-1,000
0.0%
2Q 2Q 2Q 2Q 2Q 2Q 2Q 2Q 2Q 2Q 2Q 2Q 2Q 2Q 2Q 2Q 2Q 2Q 2Q 2Q 2Q 2Q 2Q
'88 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10
5.0%
-2,000
-3,000
10.0%
Absorption
Vacancy
Source: AAMD
Effective Rent Growth
a historic
8.00%
high.”
6.00%
Given this drastic decrease in
vacancy rates over the course of
the first half of the year, rents
have responded with positive growth. Second quarter
market rents increased to an average of $1.06 per
square foot, while concessions fell by 5.5 percent over
the previous quarter to an average of 9.1 percent. As
a result, real effective rents grew by 3 percent, which
when annualized equates to a growth rate of 12
percent over a 12-month period.
15.0%
4,000
Vacancy
Absorbed
UnitsUnits
Absorbed
“
5,000
Vacancy
Today, Denver’s apartment owners are singing a different
tune as the apartment market as a whole is showing
exceptional strength. Since the beginning of 2010, the
market has absorbed 4,875 units,
Demand
representing 26 percent of the total
number of vacant units across the
for rental
metro area and the second largest
housing
first half absorption total on record.
Vacancy rates have fallen to 6.1
throughout
percent during the second quarter
the metro
of 2010, the lowest second quarter
vacancy rate since 2001, and a
area is at
decrease of 33 percent over 2009.
4.00%
2.00%
0.00%
'95
'96
'97
'98
'99
'00
'01
'02
'03
'04
'05
'06
'07
'08
'09
2Q
'10
-2.00%
-4.00%
-6.00%
The long term outlook for Denver’s apartment market
Source: AAMD
is positive. Demand for rental housing throughout
the metro area is at a historic high and the level of available units is dwindling fast. In addition, the current construction pipeline
is minimal and financing for new development remains nearly impossible. This will continue to keep new additions to the supply
extremely limited for the next three years and insure that rents will continue to climb.
1800 Larimer Street, Suite 1700, Denver, CO 80202 • 303.260.4400 • [email protected]
V IEW PEOPLE
F
or more than a century,
Frederick Ross Company
has provided unparalleled
commercial real estate services
in the Denver region. Our locallydelivered comprehensive platform
means one thing to our clients:
confident decision making.
We provide customized
solutions in:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Brokerage
Management
Research
Marketing
Financial Analysis
Consulting
Development/Capital
The success of our clients is our
paramount objective. Frederick
Ross Company utilizes these
services to capture value,
minimize risk and maximize
profits for its clients.
Industrial brokers
office brokers
Jason B. Addlesperger
Rodney D. Foster
David K. Lee
Jeffrey Y. McClintock
Matthew Y. McClintock
Chris A. Nordling
Peter L. Wycoff
Andrew L. Blaustein Robert H. Bruce
Daniel R. Burke Jeffrey D. Castleton
Jamie A. Gard Ben Gilliam Jane Grubich
Nathan R. Johnson III
Austin A. Kane
Keith A. Krombach Thomas M. Lee
Jared Leabch
Judd Robertson
Roger E. Simpson
Peter M. Staab
Jonathan P. Tilton Jon Treter
John P. Tromly
Investment brokers
Wade R. Fletcher
John J. “Packet” Lowrey
Stephen J. Roesinger
David G. Tilton
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
Retail brokers
Robert C. Bramble
Frank O. Griffin
Susan S. Karsh
Michael J. Quinlan
A
partment Realty Advisors
(ARA) is the largest privately held, full-service
investment advisory brokerage
firm in the nation that focuses
exclusively on the multi-housing
industry. The combination of
resources, unparalleled market
expertise and nationwide presence
in the multi-housing marketplace
resulted in an average annual
production volume of $5.9 billion
in real estate transactions since
2003. Apartment Realty Advisors
of Colorado, a Frederick Ross
Company, has been the top
Colorado apartment brokerage for
seven of the last eight years.
For detailed information on
ARA’s extensive multi-housing
investment services, visit
www.ARAusa.com.
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
a
Frederick
Ross
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
management
John P. Box
Kevin D. Thomas
Jennifer Plunkett
Debbie McLachlan
Deb Bergman
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
Terrance Hunt
Kevin McKenna
Steve O’Dell
Shane Ozment
Jason Wine
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
Company
APARTMENT brokers
Doug Andrews
Chris Cowan
Ken Greene
Jeff Hawks
Andy Hellman Justin Hunt
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
V IEW MARKET ACTIVITY
Denver Industrial Market Activity
By Sue Selle
Analyst
Industrial Market Balance
10.00%
6,000,000
8.00%
4,000,000
6.00%
2,000,000
4.00%
2.00%
0
Vacancy
Square Feet
The metro Denver industrial market showed solid
signs of recovery during second quarter with positive
absorption, lower vacancy and stabilized asking rates.
The market’s uptick in activity is expected to continue
through the balance of the year, ending 2010 with
positive absorption.
10
9
2Q
08
20
0
07
20
06
20
04
05
20
20
03
20
02
20
20
20
01
0.00%
The overall Denver industrial market posted positive
absorption of 502,174 sf in 2Q10, which brings
year-to-date absorption to 417,148 sf. The Industrial/
Supply
Absorption
Vacancy
Warehouse sector was the driving force behind the
Source: Ross Research Services
increased activity this quarter, absorbing 512,651
sf of space. The R&D/Flex sector recorded flat
declined from 6.96 percent in 2Q09 to 6.74 percent in
activity in 2Q10 with absorption of negative 10,477 sf.
2Q10. Vacancy for R&D/Flex space continued to increase,
The East submarket, which is situated along the Interstate
jumping from 14.19 percent in 2Q09 to 15.32 percent
70 Corridor, was the strongest performing metro Denver
in 2Q10. Although rental rates remain soft, asking rates
submarket during 2Q10 with 440,426 sf of absorption.
have stabilized in most submarkets compared to the sharp
declines realized during 2009.
Vacancy stood at 7.90 percent in 2Q10, and dipped below
eight percent for the first time since 2Q09 when the rate
was 7.93 percent. Vacancy for Industrial/Warehouse space
Denver Retail Market Activity
By Lauren Douglas
Director of Research
10.00%
4,000,000
8.00%
3,000,000
6.00%
2,000,000
4.00%
1,000,000
Vacancy
5,000,000
2.00%
0
10
2Q
08
20
09
07
06
Absorption
20
20
05
20
04
Supply
20
03
20
20
02
20
01
0.00%
20
2Q10 absorption was positive, at 373,853 square feet,
bringing year-to-date absorption to 755,659 square feet,
and overall vacancy decreased to 9.19 percent, down
from 9.57 percent at 4Q09. Median rental rates were
stable.
Retail Market Balance
Square Feet
As the national and local economies improve, albeit
slowly, the retail market showed signs of stabilizing
in the first half of 2010, logging moderate positive
absorption, decreased vacancy, and stable rental rates.
Improving consumer confidence, pent up demand and
stable consumer prices have sparked a cautious recovery
in consumer spending. However, job creation and income
growth are necessary to sustain this trend.
Vacancy
Source: Ross Research Services
The development pipeline has diminished to 515,000 square
feet under construction, including the 415,000-square-foot
IKEA that broke ground this quarter. Two single-tenant
projects, totaling 230,500 square feet, were completed
in 2Q10. Investment sales remain weak with 2Q10 sales
totaling 592,437 square feet for a volume of $63,660,435.
Ross Research believes that in the first half of 2010, the
occurrence of positive absorption, signs of an improving
labor market, and increased retail sales and consumer
confidence signal that the retail market is stabilizing.
For more Denver market information, please contact Lauren Douglas at [email protected].
V IEW