bihet 2007 h1 eng - Direkcija za ekonomsko planiranje BiH

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bihet 2007 h1 eng - Direkcija za ekonomsko planiranje BiH
BOSNA I HERCEGOVINA
VIJEĆE MINISTARA
DIREKCIJA ZA EKONOMSKO PLANIRANJE
БОСНА И ХЕРЦЕГОВИНА
САВЈЕТ МИНИСТАРА
ДИРЕКЦИЈА ЗА ЕКОНОМСКО ПЛАНИРАЊЕ
BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA
COUNCIL OF MINISTERS
DIRECTORATE FOR ECONOMIC PLANNING
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Economic Trends
January – June 2007
Economic Planning Research Unit
September 2007
LIST OF ACCRONYMS:
LFS – Labor Force Survey
BD- Brcko District
GDP- Gross Domestic Product
GVA – Gross Value Added
BHAS – Agency for Statistics of Bosnia and Herzegovina
BIFX – Bosnian Investment Funds Index
BiH – Bosnia and Herzegovina
BLSE – Banja Luka Stock Exchange
CBBiH – Centralna Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina
CEFTA- Central European Free Trade Agreement
FBD– Budget Framework Paper
FDI – Foreign Direct Investments
EC – European Commission
ERS-10- Index designed to present performance of top 10 companies from the Republika Srpska
Elektroprivreda system
EU – European Union
FBiH- Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina
FIRS – Republika Srpska Investment Funds Index
FISIM – Financial Intermediation Services Indirectly Measured
RPI- Retail Prices Index
LCI – Living Cost Index
SA ITA – Single Account of the Indirect Taxation Authority
BAM – Bosnian Convertible Mark (international standards ISO 4217)
IMF- International Monetary Fund
MOFTER – Ministry of Foreign Trade and Economic Relations
MAU- Macroeconomic Analysis Unit of the Governing Board of the Indirect Tax Authority
MR – Mandatory Reserves
BOP – Balance of Payments
VAT – Value-Added Tax
PIF – Privatization Investment Fund
PIP – Public Investment Program
RS- Republika Srpska
SASE – Sarajevo Stock Exchange
SASX-10 – Index designed to present performance of top 10 companies listed on Sarajevo Stock
Exchange
WB – World Bank
SEE – South East Europe
SIPA – State Investigation and Protection Agency
SITC – Standard International Trade Classification
MTEF – Medium Term Expenditure Framework
MTDS – Medium Term Development Strategy
SAA – Stabilization and Association Agreement
FTA – Free Trade Agreement
GFS – Government Finance Statistics
ITA – Indirect Taxation Authority of Bosnia and Herzegovina
USAID – United States Agency for International Development
2007H1- first half of 2007
2007Q1- first quarter of 2007
M0 – Reserve Money
2
M1 – Transaction Money
M2 – Broad Money
QM – Quasi Money
mBAM – million of BAM
y /y – growth rate which represents a change in comparison to the same period of the previous year
m / m – growth rate which represents a change in comparison to the previous month of the current year
3
Contents:
1. REAL SECTOR
• Gross Domestic Product
i. Audit of National accounts – Grey Economy
ii. Expenditure-based GDP
iii. Gross Domestic Product in 2006
• Real Sector in the First half of 2007
• Labor Market
i. Employment
ii. Unemployment
iii. Action to Inspect the So-Called “Off-the-book” Work
iv. Labor Force Survey
v. Wages
vi. Pensions
2. PUBLIC FINANCES
• Fiscal Policy Developments
i. Medium-term Fiscal Planning
ii. Collection of Indirect taxes
iii. Fiscal Performance Analysis in the Government Sector
iv. Consolidated Performance of the General Government
v. Execution of Budgets of the Central Government Levels
vi. Public External Debt
3. PRICES, MONEY AND FINANCIAL SECTOR
• Prices
• Development of Monetary and Fiscal Sectors
i. Development of Monetary Variables
ii. Foreign Currency Reserves of the Central Bank of BiH
iii. Development of the BiH Banking Sector
- Institutional development
- Main indicators of the banking sector
- Growth of loans in the BiH banking sector
- Interest rates
- Growth of deposits in the banking sector of BiH
• Capital Market
i. Indices
ii. Total Turnover
4. FOREIGN TRADE
• Foreign Trade According to Various Product Classifications
• Foreign Trade Viewed by Partner Countries
• BiH Balance of Payments
5. FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS
• Privatization and FDI
6. BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT
4
•
•
•
Regulatory Reform
Financial Environment
Support for Small and Medium-Size Enterprises (SME)
i. Less Costly and Faster Starting of A Business
ii. Tax Policy
iii. Credit and Financial Operations
iv. Investment Promotion
v. Trade Policy
vi. Bankruptcy Proceedings
vii. Training
5
Credit to private
sector
MAIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS IN BiH
Nominal GDP for BiH (in mBAM)*
Nominal growth rate (in %)
Real growth rate (in %)
Population (estimation, thousands)
GDP per capita (in BAM)
No. of unemployed in BiH (in thousands)
Average wages in BiH (in BAM)
LCI (living cost index), average change in %
Consolidated budget BiH **
Revenues
Expenditures
Operating balance
External public debt
2005.
2006.
2007.*
16,928
7.2%
4.3%
19,106
12.9%
6.2%
20,596
7.8%*
5.0%*
3.844
4.404
3.844
4.970
3.844*
5.358*
508
538
2,5%
528*
635*
1,9%
41,1%
37,0%
2,4%
25,6%
516
585
6,1%
(u % BDP)
44,8%
39,5%
2,9%
21,3%
n.a.
n.a.
n.a
19,5%
47,7%
44,6%
(u % BDP)
52,7%
48,72%
61,1%
56,5%
5.583
20,3%
12.643
13,3%
-38,8%
6.993
25,2%
12.704
0,5%
-27,9%
8.741
25,0%
-15.499
22,0%
-30,6%
4.224,5
4,3
5.451,7
5,3
6.814,6
5,8
-3.357
-19,8%
-2.041
-10,7%
-3.014
-14,6%
230
4,1%
270
3,9%
264
3,0%
Money and Credits
Broad money (M2)
Credit to private sector
Balance of payments
Export of goods and services (in mBAM)
(rate of growth in %)
Import of goods and services (in mBAM)
(rate of growth in %)
Balance of goods and services (in % of GDP)
Gross official reserves
In mBAM
In months of imports of goods and services
Current Account Balance
In mBAM
In % GDP
External public debt servicing
In mBAM
In % of exports of goods and services
* DEP estimate
* Estimation /projection by DEP/EPRU
** Source: Central Bank of BiH for the revenues, expenditures and net credits /received credits – the Ministry of Finance
and Treasury of BiH for the external public debt and its servicing. Consolidated data about the revenues, expenditures and
approved /received credits is published by the Central Bank based on the IMF methodology of the Government Finance
Statistics for 2001. The data revised by the Central Bank in October 2006 for the period of 2003-2005. in order to include
the local levels of government (municipalities) and incorporate corrections of the consolidated figures.
6
1. REAL SECTOR
Gross Domestic Product
The second quarter of 2007 was largely marked by publication of the new data long expected in
the domain of national accounts. In particular, in addition to publishing the production aspects of the
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2006, a revision of GDP also took place in the earlier years (2003-05),
incorporating for the first time an assessment regarding the grey economy. What is more, for the first
time BHAS has published the GDP by the expenditure-based approach for 2004-051. Finally, the GDP
data (manufacturing and consumer-related) were also published for the first time as featured by fixed or
constant prices, while the constant prices were taken from the preceding year2.
Audit of National Accounts – Grey Economy
The first major audit (of production-based) GDP in BiH took place in the last quarter of 2006,
when for the first time an assessment of imputed rent was incorporated, and as a direct consequence
the GDP was increased by 9-11% (compared to the previous official data) in the period of 2000-04.
Thereafter followed the most recent audit in July 2007, covering assessments made in regard to grey
economy. Although these assessments were not presented explicitly in the national accounts, the GDP
increase has, by comparison with the earlier data, amounted to no more than 7-8 % during 2003-05,
which by implication suggests that non-registered (or grey) economy could amount to that particular
amounts at maximum. The data suggests that service-providing activities, without taking into account
the domain of public services, dominated the structure of grey economy with almost 60% in 2004-053.
Regarded by sectors, internal trade was the one with the most considerable share (of 27-28%) in the
total grey economy. There follow catering and construction industries with 15% each (in 2005), and only
then agriculture with 11-12% (2003-05). Ultimately, real-estate trade and manufacturing industry with
their shares in the grey economy amounting to 9-10% (2004-05), as well as transport and
communications (5-6% during 2003-05), also represent important sources of grey economy.
Increments by individual sectors suggest that this could be a rather conservative assessment of
unregistered economy. Most indicative among the sectors are agriculture and transport and
communication services. The change in agriculture amounted to only 10% or thereabout, whereas in
transport and communications it amounted to only 4.5 to 5% during 2003-05. Apart from that, the
estimated grey economy in catering industry would also be higher in real terms. Unfortunately, the
currently available data are limiting any comment about grey economy evaluations in other sectors, so
they will find their place in one of the coming publications.
As far as agriculture is concerned, a strong indication of undervaluation of grey economy is
suggested in the relation between the employment structure by sectors according to the official
1
Unlike GDP itself, which according to the manufacturing principle is published at both the entity and state levels,
its expenditure side is published solely by BHAS, and so is done for the entire BiH. The reason for that is in the fact
that, under the current circumstances, it would be almost impossible to identify the economic flows between the
entities, which is the main precondition reqiured to be met in order to identify the items of consumer GDP at the
entity level. It would be of special importance to identify the entity level consumption, which serves as the baseline
for distrubutuion of indirect taxation revenues.
2
Therefore, base prices indicators are not used from a single (base) year; as a result, the fixed prices vary from year
to year. Still, even this system of caluculating fixed prices is useful in terms of showing the actual developments of
the national accounts by comparison with the preceding year.
3
Perentage of the total increase by comparison with the earlier data from the period 2004-2005.
7
statistics and the one from the Labor Force Survey (LFS). Namely, according to the official employment
statistics, agriculture participates with only 3% in the total number of the employed, whereas according
to the LFS its share is approximately seven times as much (20% of the employed are involved in
agricultural activities). By an ultimate comparison with Slovenia, it turns out that the share which
agriculture has in the GDP of BiH is considerably higher (around 10% in BiH compared to approximately
2% in Slovenia), whereas its significance in terms of employment is considerably below the one in
Slovenia (agriculture share in employment of 3% in BiH compared to its share in Slovenia of 10%). In that
relation, in terms of its Gross Value Added per employee, agriculture is officially the second best sector
in economy. Although this suggests that undervaluation in agriculture is considerably higher than
undervaluation of its value added, nevertheless the size of undervaluation of the employed in
agriculture indicates that even the unregistered Gross Value Added was considerably above 10% in all
likelihood.
As far as transport is concerned, the highest undervaluation is probably in the area of road
transportation. Namely, according to the official statistics4, passengers mostly use urban(city)-suburban
transportation means (almost 90% of the total passenger transport), whereas in terms of commodity
transport, railways dominate with 60-70% out of the total commodity transportation. This is by all
accounts a result of a situation in which the main part of registered transportation comes from stateowned companies, whereas private companies (primarily in road transportation) fail to report a
considerable part of their turnover. Therefore, it is highly possible that the share of grey economy is
considerably higher then those estimated 5%.
Although the prima facie estimate of a rather high value of grey economy in tourism and
catering industry ranging 55-60%, it could on the other hand also prove to be a very conservative
estimate. This is suggested by the estimated turnover of the catering industry export, drawn up by the
Central Bank of BiH (CBBH) for the needs of balance of payment as compared to the gross value or
production. The amount estimated by the CBBiH approximates gross production of Hotels and
restaurants activity item in the national accounts. Assuming that the items within the balance of
payment and on national accounts closely correspond to each other5, then this kind of situation could be
interpreted as indicating that catering services are being consumed by foreign nationals exclusively.
Ultimately, in support to the claim that unregistered economy is undervaluated we may point to
the fact that the expenditure-based GDP estimated in 2004 and 2005 was by 5.7 and 7.4% higher
compared to the official indicators (production-based including the grey economy) recorded in these
years. If a such discrepancy is treated as part of grey economy which is not covered by the official
estimate within the production-based approach, the grey economy would amount to only 14% in 2004
and 15% in 2005, whereas the total GDP increase compared to the most recent data before the imputed
rent was included would amount to 24% for 20046.
Expenditure-based GDP
The production and expenditure-based GDPs differ not only by the estimated value but also by
the rates of nominal and real growth7. So, in 2005 the real growth by the expenditure approach was
4
So far BHAS has published only the state level data for 2005 and 2006.
Having in mind that the export of tourist services consists mainly of bed & breafkast and other catering services
(IMF Balance of Payment Manual), these two items should largely correspond to each other by their contents.
6
Calculation of this increase is impossible for other periods given that 2004 is the last period when the GDP was
published without an imputed rental, and that this was at the same time the starting year in which BHAS published
the national accounts estimation according to expenditure-based approach.
7
This applies to 2005, the only year when comparison between growth rates was possible.
5
8
higher by 2.4 percentage points compared to the growth of manufacture GDP (6.69 versus 4.26
percentage of growth), whereas the nominal growth of the expenditure-based GDP was higher by „only“
1.7 percentage points. All this indicates the need to conduct considerable audits of national accounts for
the purpose of reconciling or aligning the results arrived at by various methods of measurement. In
other words, if divergence of the growth rates continues, the gap between the production-based and
the expenditure based GDPs will continue to rise. Yet, regardless of the deficiencies, publication of the
expenditure-based GDP enabled an acceptable calculation of new national account aggregates. First of
all, it is possible to calculate the level of total gross savings, which was at the level of the overall
economy ranging 8.5 – 14 percent of GDP during 2004-06.
This is perhaps at first sight a surprisingly high level of savings for a country with a rather low
level of living standards (around 2.500 EUR per capita) that is making considerable investments (27% of
GDP in 2004-05) and is growing rapidly (growth of 7-13% during 2004-06). This situation is mostly
accounted for by rather high amounts from other countries which are „injected“ into BiH economy by
way of income and current transfers (18-22% GDP during 2004-06) each year, thus ensuring that in
addition to the high final consumption (112% of GDP in 2004-05) a considerable part of investments (3040% investments) is funded through domestic saving deposits. Nevertheless, there remains in BiH
economy a high deficit on the current account of BOP reported each year that must be covered by
capital transactions and increase of financial obligations of the economy. Due to the high amounts of
foreign aid meant for the post-war reconstruction, mostly by way of favorable foreign loans to the
government sector, direct foreign investments, and gradual regaining of trust of private sector into the
banking system, the high current account deficit could be financed so far without any considerable
borrowings by BiH economy. In that connection, the total foreign debt of BiH, according to the estimates
made by IMF8 and DEP/EPRU9, amounted to 50-60 percent of GDP without a rising trend over the last
few years. Interestingly enough, such a favorable outcome happened in the almost complete absence of
an economic policy dealing with this issue and it has mainly occurred as a result of combined
developments outside BiH and some structural peculiarities of BiH economy10.
Still, it is important to mention that the foreign aid has been in a downturn over the last few
years, and that since recently the government sector has been receiving less and less favorable loans
compared to the immediate post-war years. At the same time, the banking sector is becoming more and
more important when it comes to the issue of rise of foreign liabilities in the economy. Credit rating of
the Country has also recorded certain progress that was made in recent times, so BiH economy is slowly
entering the stage of commercial borrowing. This will of course require a considerably higher
involvement of economic policy creators in order to avoid any potential excessive credit-related
indebtedness of this country in the future.
Gross Domestic Product in 2006
In 2006, the official (production-related) GDP amounted to 19.1 billion BAM (9.8 billion EUR), by
8
Bosnia and Herzegovina: 2007 Article IV Consultation - Staff Report, strana 34; Public Information Notice on the
Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Bosnia and Herzegovina. Web adresa:
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2007/cr07268.pdf
9
Nermin Didik mentored by Vladimir Gligorov (2006); “ Current account deficit sustainability in Bosnia and
Herzegovina “ – page 17; Research paper as part of mentor program sponsored by EU; Web address:
http://www.dep.gov.ba/bh/content/view/65/81/
10
For example, the government sector could not obtain borrowings more than it was allowed by the International
Community, but due to a bad credit rating of the country it was impossible for both the government and private
sectors to obtain commercial borrowings abroad.
9
way of which the nominal growth of 12.9% was accomplished as compared to 2005. Despite the
significant inflation (6.1%) in 2006, the high nominal growth was accompanied also by a relatively high
rate of real growth of 6.2%, on account of which BiH is classified as one among the most rapid growing
countries in Europe. Compared to the growth from 2005 the nominal growth is made more rapid by 5.6
of percentage points, which is backed mostly by manufacturing industry, real estate sector, catering
industry, financial intermediation, improved tax compliance, and the value effect of increase in the
general level of prices in 2006. The ultimate result was a real boost in growth by total rate of 1.9 %
points, in which tax compliance and the real estate sector have the largest contribution. Finally, the
introduction of VAT in 2006 has largely influenced the national accounts and we may rightfully say that it
represented a cause of certain contradictions between the production-based and expenditure- based
GDP estimations.
In terms of prices, out of 12.9% of the nominal growth realized in 2006, the change in prices
generated 6.7 percentage points. Although this is indeed along the lines of the official inflation
indicators, it would be interesting to point out several items. Taxes are primarily responsible for 2.6 out
of total 5.6 percentage points of additional growth compared to 2005 (7.2% of growth in 2005) where
the growth of prices contributes with the highest share (84%). A possible interpretation of the said
indicators could be that improvement of tax compliance has been reflected through total 0.4 percentage
points of additional growth, whereas the remaining 2.2 percentage points mirror the intensified tax
burden sustained by the real sector. In other words, this means that by applying the tax rates from the
previous indirect taxation system with the improved tax compliance, the tax revenues from indirect
taxes in 2006 would be lower by approximately 490 mBAM11. In addition, the increase in prices has also
contributed by a half (of a percentage point) of additional growth generated in the manufacturing
industry. This is even more striking with internal trade where the prices are responsible for almost entire
(one percentage point) additional growth. The wages increase in education is reflected through almost
one percentage point of additional value growth, whereas the real growth is mildly lagging. Similar
situation was also recorded in agriculture where the price growth generated 0.8 percentage points of
nominal growth. A negative value-related effect in electric power, gas and water supplies is, to say the
least, astonishing having in mind that the increase of prices in this area played an important role in
generating inflation (of 6.1%) in 2006. Ultimately, a negative effect of value in the domain of real estate,
renting and business activity of one percentage point (compared to its value effect of growth in 2005)
accompanied with a real acceleration of growth (of 0.5 percentage points) probably suggests that the
real estate trade is being substantially intensified.
Graph 1. Sectors share in boosting GDP growth by 5.6% in 2006
11
The amount of 490 mBAM represents a balance betwen the values of Taxes item and Subsidies item in terms of
current and constant prices (prices from the previous year). This interpreration should be taken with a grain of salt
having in mind that the balance between the nominal and real values of Taxes item in 2005 amounted to 111 million
even though in that year the VAT System was unchanged by comparison with the one from 2004.
10
Source: Calculated on the basis of data on BiH national accounts – Agency for Statistics of BiH
VAT introduction has triggered a rise in the overall level of prices and accordingly caused a
partial decline in the purchasing power of population. The final outcome of that influence was a
considerable contraction of final consumption growth. The price increase has been caused presumably
due to the changes on the supply side and so for the following two reasons. The new taxation system
has likely resulted in the rise of tax burden in the real sector. What is more, the VAT system largely
contributed to the halt of rise in imports in 2006 by way of which this growth was slowed down by 15-16
percentage points compared to 2005. This has put some extreme constraints on the supply of
consumable goods imported to the great extent over the past years, whereas their full replacement with
domestic products was impossible within a short period of time. The expectations were that that the
consumption unfolding with such reduced speed should ultimately cause a slower rate of growth in
retail sales and indirect taxes (that are largely in direct relation with it). Yet, having in mind that in
addition to the above effects, VAT has also created some dramatic improvements in regard of the taxpayment compliance, which is not accompanied with the appropriate official modifications of
estimations of grey economy, the above explained scenario can hardly be seen in the data of the
production-based side of national accounts.
Namely, not only has the influence of indirect taxes on the growth not been reduced, but due to
the improved tax compliance it has sustained a considerable increase instead (from 20.5% of share in
growth during 2005 to 32% of share in growth during 2006), while the share of retail sales in growth was
slightly reduced. Having in mind that in 2005 the participation of indirect taxes in this growth accounted
for “only” 11 percent, it is apparent that the official growth of BiH economy over the last few years is
more and more „dependent“ on the degree of tax compliance. In other words, stricter tax compliance
should influence the reduction of grey economy and therefore its estimated presence should be
reduced in the years with improved collection of indirect taxes. In practice, this was only partially the
case on the national accounts in which grey economy was reduced by modest 0.7 percentage points
(somewhat less than 10%) in the period 2003-06.
11
Real Sector in the First Half of 2007
The data for the first six months of this year indicate that compared with 2006 BiH economy
could grow at slower pace in both nominal and real terms. Namely, there is an apparently considerable
slowdown in growth of collection of indirect taxes which were back in 2006 generating 4 percentage
points of nominal growth (i.e. total 32% of the aggregate growth). Apart from that, the retail sales,
which in the past year contributed with 18% in the total growth, have now also had the record of
significant slowdown in growth. The period of draught in the first half of the year most likely had an
adverse effect on the growth in agriculture. Having in mind all such developments, it can hardly be
expected that for the second year in a row there will be any significant increase of public sector
expenditures as it was the case in 2006 with education and general administration and defense. On the
other hand, the growth of industrial production is slightly above the level recorded in the first half of the
past year, which is quite insufficient in order to remove the said effects created by this slowdown in the
economy growth. Insignificant breakthroughs in transport and catering industry also did not help much
to accomplish the additional growth. In the end, the only real step forward was achieved in construction
industry, which, if a similar trend is to continue throughout the second part of the year, will be an
important source of additional growth in 2007. Finally, it is likely that the value effect of GDP growth
from the past year (3.9 percentage points of additional growth caused by the price increase) will no
longer be the case, since we can hardly expect that the price increase in this year will reach the level
from 2006.
The slowdown in growth of retail sales is an exclusive responsibility of FBiH where two thirds of
this activity takes place. Namely, the growth in retail sales in this entity descended from 41.5% in the
first half of 2006 to “only” 18.1% in the same period of this year. At the same time, by their increase of
21% the retail sales in RS have maintained the trend of growth from the preceding year. It is difficult to
find an explanation of such a substantial slowdown in FBiH if one has in mind the considerable
acceleration of growth in imports and consumer loans in this period.
Industrial production in BiH over the first half has risen by 7.4% whereby it accelerated the
growth by one percentage point12 compared to the growth in the same period last year. This is a result
of an accelerated growth in manufacturing industry (13.5 percentage points) in combination with the
drop in production of electricity (15.5%) and a considerable slowdown in growth of mining industry (10
percentage points). Given that the manufacturing industry dominates the structure of industrial
production, its growth was more than sufficient to remove adverse effects of growth in other two
sectors. For this growth in manufacturing industry the main responsibility rests with FBiH where in the
first half of the year this sector was growing by a sharp rate of 24,5% by virtue of which its growth was
substantially accelerated (18 percent points) compared to the first half of 2006. At the same time the
manufacturing industry in RS was growing by a mildly slowed rate of total 7,2%. Production of electricity
has been a significant underachiever in both entities. The causes for that should be sought in an
unenviable hydrological situation and numerous delays in operation of thermoelectric power plants
caused by overhauls. In that relation, there has been a slowdown in growth of the mining industry, since
the production in mines is largely dependant on the production of electric power. The slowdown was
most likely under additional impact of problems found with an important metal ore consumer Mittal
Steel, the problems which to some extent influenced the level of production. This is reflected in 13%
drop of metal ore production in RS, whose mines Ljubija are for the most part dependent on this buyer.
12
Index of physical volume of industrial production is estimated on the basis of entity indices wighted by goss
production value from 2005 (having in mind that gross production value for 2006 is not yet published).
12
Graph 2. Comparison of value structures of construction by entities during H1 2007
Source: Entity level institutes for statistics
On the other hand, one may say that the enormous growth in construction works marked the
developments in the real sector over the first half of the year. The value of construction works in FBiH
increased by 37%, whereas in RS it was by 59% compared to the first six months of 2006, which
represents a considerable rate of acceleration in growth compared to the same period of the previous
year. The causes of improvement should be accounted for in the weather conditions favorable for
construction, meaning that the construction season set off very early, as well as through many
investment projects in both public and private sectors relating to transport infrastructure, commercial
buildings, etc. The varying structure of construction works in the entities suggests that there are
differences in the structure of investments. Thus, although having significant impact in both entities, the
transport infrastructure in RS plays by far the most important role with its share of 44%. Non-residential
buildings have the similar role in FBiH with the share of 41%. Also, it is worth mentioning that residential
buildings in RS have a relatively higher importance for the structure of values of construction works
compared to the same in FBiH (Graph 2).
Even though it can hardly be expected that the growth will be accelerated in this year as
compared with the past year, nevertheless, one should not forget that the growth rates in these sectors
are still pretty high in general, so it can be anticipated that this year BiH economy could reach a real rate
of growth not slower than 4%.
13
Labor Market
Employment
Due to non-harmonized and therefore diverging reporting periods of the entity statistics
institutions, the level of employment13 in BiH cannot be monitored frequently as is the case with the
level of unemployment; therefore, the analysis of employment is restricted to temporary data from
2007.
The first half of 2007 is marked by the increase in labor force in BiH accompanied with the
growth in numbers of both the employed and unemployed persons. Alongside with a slightly faster
increase in the number of the employed in BiH (2.1% in march, y/y, that is, 1.5 percentage points), the
official data suggest that there has been a slightly faster rate of growth in registered unemployment in
H1 2007 (3.9%, y/y, that is, 1.4 percentage points). Of course, one of important facts is that in the month
of July a significant number of high school graduates reported themselves for registration, thus
contributing to the growth in the number of the unemployed.
Unemployment
Viewed by the entities, there is a continued disproportion in the number of registered
employees, which was also evident back in 2006. Interestingly enough, we can notice that the average
number of those unemployed in BD is constantly decreasing with the average monthly rate of change of
-0.96%. On the other hand, from March till the end of June, RS has recorded a drop in the number of the
unemployed of more than 6,000, whereas the number of the unemployed of 140,189 constitutes the
lowest registered number of the unemployed in RS since November 2004. (140,643). Apparently, the
intensified inspection supervision along with the amended Labor Law, privatization processes and a
more proactive work of the Employment Bureau in the RS, achieved certain results. By contrast, a
decline in the number of the officially unemployed persons in FBiH has not been registered. However,
one should also take into account the fact that the average rate of growth in the number of the
unemployed in H1 2007 in FBiH (5.7%) has seen a slowdown compared to the average rate of growth of
unemployment in H1 2006 (5,9%).
Table 1: Number of registered unemployed persons comparison (y/y) 14
Number of registered unemployed persons
I-2006
FBiH
349137
Monthly change in FBiH in %
RS
Monthly change in RS in %
Brčko
Monthly change in Brčko in %
II-2006
350187
III-2006
351367
IV-2006
351264
V-2006.
350958
VI-2006
352193
Average IVI 2006
350851
0.48
0.3
0.34
-0.03
-0.09
0.35
0,23
142754
144510
145331
145678
144830
142252
144226
0.3
1.23
0.57
0.24
-0.58
-1.78
0
18454
18370
17860
18110
17571
16926
17882
1.23
-0.46
-2.78
1.4
-2.98
-3.67
-1.21
13
BiH Agency for Statistics did not publish the official BiH employment data in 2007 in the period when the
economic trends were being written. The said data on the number of the employed were compiled on a samplebasis, and as such are treated as temporary, as reported by BHAS.
14
Monthly change refers to the ratio between stated and preceeding months.
14
BiH
Monthly change in BiH in %
510345
513067
514558
515052
513359
511371
512959
0.45
0.53
0.29
0.1
-0.33
-0.39
0.11
Number of registered unemployed persons
I-2007
FBiH
367449
Monthly change in FBiH in %
RS
Monthly change in RS in %
Brčko
Monthly change in Brčko in %
BiH
Monthly change in BiH in %
II-2007
371161
III-2007
371156
IV-2007
370961
V-2007
370738
VI-2007
373519
Average
I-VI 2007
370831
1.40
1.00
0.00
-0.05
-0.06
0.75
0.51
146180
147673
146517
144306
141610
140189
144413
1.42
1.02
-0.78
-1.51
-1.87
-1.00
-0.45
17902
18135
17816
17567
17385
17327
17689
-2.52
1.30
-1.76
-1.40
-1.04
-0.33
-0.96
531531
536969
535489
532834
529733
531035
532932
1.28
1.02
-0.28
-0.50
-0.58
0.25
0.20
Source: Employment bureaus of FBiH, RS and Brčko, institutes for statistics of FBiH, RS and BD
From the regional point of view, out of the total number of the unemployed in FBiH, the largest
number of the unemployed has been recorded as observed in the past years in Tuzla Canton (25%),
Zenica-Doboj Canton (19%) and Sarajevo Canton (18%), while in the RS the largest concentration of the
unemployed is in Banja Luka (31%), Bijeljina (21%) and Doboj (16%). Such data indicate that there is still
the lack of compliance among the regional rates of unemployment, due to which it is not hard to
suppose that labor mobility in BiH is at a low level.
The official rate of unemployment, calculated as the share of the unemployed persons that are
registered with the employment bureaus in the total labor force in BiH, was 44.8% in March 2007, which
is an increment of 0.5% compared to March 2006. If we take into consideration the presence of nonformal economy at the labor market, we can realistically assume that this rate is by far lower than that.
***
Generally, at the labor market in BiH, the fist half of 2007 is marked by the following activities:
• Action to inspect the so-called “off the book” or unregistered work in FBiH;
• Survey of labor force in BiH;
• BiH labor market research (a survey).
Action to inspect the so-called “off the book” work
It is for the first time that in FBiH the action was taken aimed at inspecting the so called „off the
book” work, where the main participant15 in the inspection activity was the Federation Department for
Inspection. The action took one month, and during the month of July 150 inspectors were supposed to
check whether the employers were fulfilling their obligations towards the employees. In order for the
action to show better results, the inspectors would not know in advance what companies they were
going to check, whereas the inspection supervision was primarily conducted in the companies suspected
of keeping their employees in illegal unregistered employment (transport trade and tourist and catering
15
Besides the Department for Inspection in FBiH, there was also active involvment of the Tax Administration
Authority of FBiH, the Pension and Disability Institute of FBiH, Fedration and cantonal Halth Care Insurance and
Employment Institututes, the Department for Support of the Federation Internal Affairs Ministry, the Department
for Aliens within the BiH Security Ministryof BiH, presidents of municipal courts, Federation and cantonal
Ministriies of Labor, Social Policy and War Veterans Issues.
15
industry companies). Penalties foreseen in cases of non-registered employees are fines between 3,000
and 15,000 BAM, closure of the infringing company, but also penalizing its employees by removing them
from the records of the Employment Bureaus that otherwise pay their health care insurance. The action
already achieved excellent results as early as June.
The fact how seriously this action was comprehended by the competent authorities and
employers is evident in the information that in the month of June the Pension and Disability Insurance
Fund received 12,957 new applications of which the largest number in Sarajevo (Graph 3), whereas in
the same month last year only 1,688 persons were reported for registration.
Graph 3: Numbers of newly registered at the Pension and Disability Fund in June 2007 - regional comparison
Source: Pension and Disability Fund of the Federation of BiH
Apart from the indicators of the Fund, the Employment Bureau of FBiH also recorded significant
changes in the structure of the unemployed. Namely, according to the records from June/May 2006, the
number of the employed registered with the Bureau was increasing by 5.7 %, whereas in the period of
July/June this number dropped even by -12.9%. In 2007 we have a completely different situation. The
number of the employed according to the records made in June/May increased by 11.7 %, whereas
according to the last data available for the period of July/June it increased by the unprecedented 112%,
(11,403 employed from the records).
Graph 3: Employed from the records of the Employment Bureau FBiH – comparison y/y
16
Source: Employment Bureau of FBiH
Having in mind the solid results achieved before the start of the action, it can be expected that
the number of the employed from the records of the Bureau will rise by additional 20,000-30,000. Still,
the final effects of the action suppressing the so-called off-the-book work will be visible in the second
half of the year when it will be seen whether the newly registered employees are going to be
deregistered and reregistered in the employment bureaus. Thereafter we should have the ultimate
picture of the actual situation and determine to what extent this off-the-book work or informal economy
is represented in FBiH, in order to be able to make amendments to the relevant legislation and
introduce some more repressive measures.
The presented indicators stress the necessity of maintaining the continuity of this activity at the
labor market, whereby we could also cover other forms of organized crime and at the same time create
a positive business environment in BiH.
Labor Force Survey (LFS)
In the period from 23 April to 6 May 2007, for the second time BiH statistical institutions16
carried out a labor force survey throughout the territory of BiH on a sample of 9,999 randomly selected
households, of which 6,066 were in the Federation, 3,443 in RS and 490 in Brcko District.
In BiH there are 2.725 million registered working age persons, of which 1.196 million active and
1.529 million inactive individuals. The rate of activity amounts to 43.9% and it was considerably higher
for men then for women, as is likewise in the age span of 25 to 49.
According to such data, BiH labor force (economically active population) comprised 1,196,314
persons, of which 849,570 are employed and 346,744 unemployed. The unemployment rate17 was 29%,
and is highest among younger population at the age of 15 to 24, whereas according to the data available
from the Agency for Statistics it amounts to 44.7%18.
The results featured in this survey confirm in this year too the presence of informal economy in
BiH. Namely, by comparing the data about the total number of the unemployed (346,744) compiled
through this survey, with the official data of the Employment Bureau of BiH (532,834), we can clearly
see the apparent presence of informal economy in BiH (186,090 unemployed), or individuals who are
16
Agencija za statistiku BiH, Federalni zavod za statistiku BiH, Republički zavod za statistiku Republike Srpske uz
podršku UNDP-a, Svjetske banke i DFID-a.
17
Stopa nezaposlenosti je izračunata kao odnos broja nezaposlenih i radne snage (zaposlenna i nezaposlena lica).
18
Provisional BHAS data for April 2007.
17
officially registered with the employment bureaus for the purpose of exercising their rights to health
care and similar benefits, while they in fact work „off-the-book “.
The survey also shows a rise in the number of labor force by 1.7% with the increase in the
number of employed persons by 4.8% and decrease in the number of unemployed persons by -5.2%
(Graph 4).
Graph 4: Working age population, by activity, comparison (in thousands)
Source: BiH Agency for Statistics, Labor Force Surveys 2006 and 2007.
Even this year the Survey shows the problem of structural unemployment. The educational
structure among unemployed persons shows that the largest part (69.9%) have a secondary school
education background, and then follow those unemployed with a primary school education background
(26.1%). At the same time the data from the survey show lower educational structure of inactive
persons older than 15 years of age, where no less than 65.9% persons come from a primary school
educational background.
No less than 44.2% of the unemployed have been seeking jobs for more than 5 years, which is a
consequence of the post-war situation and economic transition in our country.
The structure of employed by activity sector shows that highest participation in the services
sector of 47.6%, then in the industry sector 32,6% and agriculture sector 19.8%.
Methodological LFS explanations:
Working age population comprises all persons aged 15 and over. Persons in employment are those
who are engaged in any work for wage payment in cash or kind in the reference week. Unemployed
persons are those who meet the following criteria: a) in the reference period did not work for
payment in cash or kind; b) were actively seeking work during four weeks prior to the Survey; c)
were currently available for work within the next two weeks. Those who have found a job to start in
the future period are also included into this group. Labor force or economically active population
comprises all persons whose activity status is either employed or unemployed. ine sva zaposlena i
nezaposlena lica. Inactive persons are persons aged 15 and over not classfieid as either employed or
unemployed persons.
Wages
A wage growth trend has continued also in the first half of 2007. The average net wage in BiH
during 2007H1 amounted to 629 BAM and constitutes an increase of 9.6% (y/y). The wage growth rate is
higher by 1.1 percentage points compared to 2006H1 (8,5%). Trend of the more significant wage
18
growth in RS compared to FBiH, identified also over the past few years, is recorded also in 2007H1. The
average net wage growth in FBiH was 8.9% compared to 12.8% in RS. A more stable inflation rate in
2007 compared to the past years has resulted in approximation between the real and nominal wage
growth, while the Republika Srpska has recorded even a higher real growth of wages in 2007 (deflation).
Table 2: Growth of nominal and real wages (y/y in %) and annual inflation measured by LCI index
2006/2005
BiH
FBiH
RS
Nominal Wage growth
8.8%
8.1%
11.9%
LCI growth
7.1%
6.0%
9.5%
Real Wage growth
1.6%
2.1%
2.4%
2007H1/2006H1
BiH
FBiH
RS
Nominal Wage growth
9.6%
8.9%
12.8%
LCI growth
0.5%
0.8%
-0.1%
Real Wage growth
9.1%
8.1%
12.9%
Source: Statistical Agency of BiH, FBiH and RS Institutes for Statistics and DEP/EPRU calculations
Viewed by the standard classification of activities, the highest registered wages in BiH are those
recorded in the areas of financial intermediation, then public administration and defense and electric
power, gas and water supply, whereas the lowest were recorded in the areas construction, trade and
manufacturing industries.
In RS, the fastest wage growth recorded in H1 was identified in the sectors of transport,
warehousing and communication, financial intermediation and agriculture, whereas in FBiH a more
accelerated wage growth was recorded in the areas of financial intermediation, public administration
and mining.
The difference in the average net wage levels between the entities contracted from 103 BAM
(which is how much it amounted to in January 2007) to 73 BAM (June 2007) which confirms the
apparently continued trend towards wage equalization in BiH given that the average nominal wage level
in FBiH is still above the average nominal wage level in RS (Graph 5).
Graph 5: Average net wage levels in FBiH, RS and BD – comparison (y/y)
Source: FBiH and RS Institutes for Statistics and, BiH Agency for Statistics – Brcko branch office
19
Over the first half of 2007, the average value of consumer basket19 in FBiH amounted to 497
BAM, or 77% of the average wage level, whereas in RS it amounted to 489 BAM or 86% of the average
wage level. For the same consumer products basket, citizens of BD had to set aside 423 BAM or 63% of
the average wage. Considering the same period within the last year, citizens of both entities had to set
aside less money from their wages in order to fulfill basic life necessities (FBiH 84%, and in RS no less
than 99% in 2006), whereas the citizens of BD set aside approximately the same amount (64%) which
indicates the stability of wages and consumer basket in BD.
Comparisons between the average net wage in BiH 2007H1 and the wages of the countries in
the same region clearly show that Croatia is leading the way by double and higher amounts of average
earnings, whereas the wages in Serbia, Montenegro and BiH are at the rather similar level.
Graph 6: Regional comparison of the average net wage in 2007 H1 (in €)
S
Source: Agencies for Statistics of BiH, Bulgaria, Croatia, Macedonia, Romania, Serbia and Montenegro
Pensions
A mild trend of growth is registered in BiH when it comes to the average number of pensioners
and it amounted to 511,588, which represents an increase of 2% (y/y) compared to the same period of
the last year. The entity data also show a rather harmonized rate of growth in the average number of
pensioners. FBiH has recorded an increase in the average number of pensioners of 1.9%, RS 2.3% and in
Brcko District 2.2%.
During the first quarter of each year, RS Pension and Disability Fund carries out a regular annual
review of pensioners who receive their pensions from the said Fund, and live outside the territory of
BiH. Therefore, there is just an apparent decrease in the number of pensioners in RS in the first two
months, which is actually how long it takes to renew documentation and do their re-registration.
The average net pension in BiH in 2007H1 amounted to 251 BAM20, which represents an
increase of 12.6% compared to the same period of 2006. Approximately the same growth was also
19
The average consumer basket is an indicator of amount, quantiy and price of food and beverages consumed by a
typical family of four. Utilities are not included in the measurement of the consumer basket.
20
The average net pesion in BiH is calculated based on the entity levels of pensions weighted by the share of the
total number of pensioners in each of BiH entities and Brcko District.
20
recorded over the last year H1 (9.8%). However, considering the entities we can see a quite different
situation:
Table 3: Pension growth in BiH in 2007H1 – comparison y/y
Pension
growth
FBiH
RS
BD
BiH
2006 H1
5.9 %
17.4%
12.6%
9.8%
2007 H1
17.6%
3.4%
12.1%
12.6%
Sources: Pension and Disability Funds of FBiH and RS; BiH Agency for Statistic – Brcko branch office
The Pension and Disability Fund of FBiH has exceeded the annual financial plan by increasing the
pensions by above 8% in 2007H1. This trend has also widened the gap between the average pensions in
FBiH and RS, which now amounts to 57 BAM in 2007H1. (FBiH 273 BAM, RS 216 BAM). In 2006H1 this
difference was 23 BAM (FBiH 232 BAM, RS 209 BAM).
Even though the pensions in BiH have this trend of mild growth, their growth is nevertheless
faster in comparison with the average wage growth in BiH. This also contributes to the rise of
percentage share of the average pension in the average wage in BiH. So, for example, June pension in
BiH, whose average was 262 BAM, was 40.9% of the average wage for June 2007, which amounted to
641 BAM.
In 2007, financial stability was accomplished in the entity Funds, while the funds for payment
are increasing on a month-to-month basis as a result of the improved collection of contributions and a
timely inflow of funds from the Budget. However, the pension system reform continues to be an
indispensable activity, given that it is still the case that a ratio of 1.3 of those employed in BiH pay the
contributions per pensioner.
21
2. PUBLIC FINANCE
Fiscal Policy Developments
Medium-Term Fiscal Planning
During the first half of 2007, BiH authorities worked on preparation and adoption of documents
important for the process of improving the public finance management in the country. The processes of
development and adoption of two vital documents important in that sense: 2008-2010 Budget
Framework Papers (BFP) have been finalized at the level of FBiH and RS, while the same document is
still pending adoption for the level of BiH Institutions; whereas the 2007-2009 Public Investments
Program (PIP) 2007-2009, on the other hand, was adopted for all levels of government in accordance
with the budget calendar. In 2007, there have been significant improvements in synchronization of
development between these key planning elements, which are the main instruments with which
objectives of the BiH Medium-Term Development Strategy will be realized (MTDS).
The processes of development and adoption of the state-level and entity-level Budget
Framework Papers (BFP) for the period 2008-2010, have been significantly improved and harmonized in
2007 through technical aid of DFID and operation of the Budget Coordinating Board (established in 2006
and consisting of three assistant finance ministers for budget, directors of MAU and the Directorate for
Economic Planning (DEP), and head of the finance and budget department of Brcko District) that met
regularly and coordinated the process of BDFs development in 2007. In accordance with the budget
calendar adopted for all levels of government, at the end of the first half of 2007, BDFs were adopted by
the entity governments, while the BDF for the level of BiH Institutions is still in the procedure of
adoption by the Council of Ministers. Since adoption of the BiH Fiscal Council Law is expected to take
place during 2007, the main task of which will be to define the fiscal objective of consolidated budgets
for individual levels of government, the processes of improvement, synchronization and coordination of
the medium-term fiscal planning will be continued by all means.
Public Investment Program (PIPs) represents a plan of government projects and programs financed
from external and domestic sources of financing, which enable realization of sector policies in
accordance with the BiH MTDS. The PIPs for the period 2007-2009 were adopted for he levels of BiH
Institutions, FBiH and RS in accordance with the budget calendar, whereby conditions have been created
for development of a single PIP for BiH, which also includes those projects planned for Brcko District. In
that connection, for 2007-2009 BiH PIP Institution is planning projects in the amount of 338.2 mBAM, of
which domestic sources make 22% of the funds. Most PIP projects would be engaged in the
infrastructure construction sectors (46%), construction of institutional capacities (29%), social sector
(21%), information communication technologies (4%). The PIP of the Federation BiH is planning for
2007-2009 the funds in the amount of 1,484 mBAM, of which the domestic sources make 30% of the
funds. Among the sectors with a lion share in the PIP FBiH are transport and communications sector
(37%), then energy and mining sectors (16%), water management sector (15%). RS PIPs for 2007-2009
are planning to invest into projects the amount of 1.223 mBAM of which 20% is financed from the RS
budget. The lion share in the total investments is held by the sectors of traffic and transport (49%), and
then the sectors of economy, energy and development (16%), health care and social welfare (12%) and
agriculture, forestry and water management (8%).
Collection of Indirect Taxes
22
Over the first half of 2007 the trend of growth has continued in the domain of indirect tax
collection in BiH, resulting in the strengthening fiscal position at all levels of government in Bosnia and
Herzegovina. According to the data available from the Indirect Taxation Authority (ITA), the success in
collection of indirect taxes in 2007H1 was caused primarily by further increase of efficiency in VAT
collection due to a continuous rise of the tax basis and tax compliance and thus reduction of the grey
economy. However, there is also a steady increase of the efficiency in collection of other types of
indirect taxes by ITA.
So at the end of 2007H1 the amount of 2,035 mBAM of indirect tax revenues was collected on
the ITA Single Account, which is an increase by 17.3% or 300.6 mBAM compared to the same period of
the last year. Through this the semi-annual collection of indirect taxes in 2007 exceeded the planned
collection by 12.3% or 265 mBAM. The accomplished growth rate in 2007H1 was higher by four
percentage points compared to the one accomplished in the same period of the last year, which is a
consequence of the more efficient collection of indirect taxes. This is also confirmed by the analysis of
the collected indirect taxes featured on Graph 7, which shows that within the first half of 2007 a certain
growth was also realized in all other tax categories besides VAT.
Graph 7: Semiannual revenues from indirect taxes presented by categories in the period 2002-2007 (in mBAM)
Source: Indirect Taxation Authority
So in late 2007H1 the amount of 293.8 mBAM was collected on the ITA Single Account as customs
revenues, which is an increase by 22% in comparison with the same period of the last year. The trend of
growth in customs is caused primarily by a repeated increase of imports growth rate in 2007, following a
drop in imports in 2006. However, it is expected that the customs revenues will continually decline in
the future period as a result of a reduction and termination of tariffs with EU countries, which is an
unavoidable sequence of events as BiH continues on its path to EU integration. In 2007H1 the amount of
492 million excise revenues were also collected, which achieved the growth of 9%, mostly as a result of
increase in imports of oil, beer, tobacco and cigarettes, and domestic manufacture of excise goods.
However, the main source of growth in total indirect taxes in 2007H1 is still the permanent
growth of VAT revenues. We can see that in June 2007 ITA charged the amount of 1,222 mBAM of VAT
23
revenues21, which is the increase of 20% compared to the same period of the last year. According to the
data available to ITA, the steady growth of VAT revenues is a consequence of:
• Increase of the tax base: Month-to-month in 2007 there is still the trend of ever growing rise in
numbers of the registered tax payers, which increased from 37,309 in late 2006 to 39,494 in late
June 2007.
• Increase in tax compliance: In the first half of 2007 there were more than 98% registered VATpayers who filed their tax forms in a timely manner, which is the most successful result high VAT
chargeability accomplished by any countries in the neighborhood.
• Strengthening of tax and market inspections: ITA inspectors carried out around 2,189
inspections in the first half of 2007, by checking accuracy and correctness of calculated VAT
payments, which resulted in additional sources of revenues of 26.9 mBAM.
• Solid functioning of the VAT refund system. Since January 2007, the period of suspension of
VAT refund to domestic entrepreneurs by comparison with the one to exporters, with the only
difference that the exporters are entitled to the refund within 30 days, whereas the domestic
entrepreneurs within 60 days. Thus all VAT taxpayers have additional motivation to file their tax
forms (i.e. report their tax liability) timely and accurately, in order to avail themselves of their
opportunity of receiving a VAT refund. In the first half of 2007, in the name of regular VAT
refund the ITA disbursed the amount of 200.8 mBAM, whereas in the name of approved VAT
credits it disbursed the amount 220,8 mBAM. Out of the amount of the tax credit approved for
the first six months of 2007, 110 mBAM were already used by the taxpayers for purposes of VAT
payment.
After the end of the first year of VAT implementation we can see that admirable rate of growth
has continued in VAT revenues, which confirms the success and efficiency of a single VAT rate and its
influence on reduction of grey economy. However, not even in this year was the successful collection of
indirect taxes followed by an expected agreement reached within the Governing Board of ITA BiH about
the long-term allocation of funds from the ITS Single Account between FBiH, RS and Brcko District, until
the end of first six months of 2007. This is why on multiple occasions the allocation of funds from the ITA
Single Account was blocked, after which agreements were reached about temporary coefficients of fund
allocation based on the principle: 64.88 percent to the Federation of BiH, 31.57 percent to the Republika
Srpska and 3.55% to Brcko District.
Of the total collected revenues on the ITA Single Account, in the first six months of 2007 the ITA
allocated 2,429 mBAM to their beneficiaries as is shown on Graph 8.
Graph 8: Overview of the Distributed Revenues from the SA ITA in first half of 2006 and 2007
21
It is worth mentioning that Graph 3 shows VAT revenues on an accrual basis, excluding VAT refunds and prepaid VAT (the
so-called tax credits).
24
Source: Indirect Taxation Authority of BiH
In the first six months of 2007 the share of the distributed revenues for financing BiH Institutions
decreased (from 13.3% to 12.8%), whereas on the other hand the revenues for the budgets of FBiH and
RS increased (from 42% to 47%, or, from 19% to 22%), which is a certain change compared to the trends
recorded in the same period of the last year. The trend of decrease in the revenues distributed to BiH
Institutions is not surprising having in mind the fact that there were no new transfers of powers from
the entity to the state levels in 2007 or establishment of major institutions at the state level.
Fiscal Performance Analysis in the Government Sector
In the first six months of 2007 the Central Bank of BiH (CBBH) published a consolidated annual report on
execution of the budget of general government for 2006, in accordance with the methodology of the
Government Finance Statistics drawn up by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The consolidated
report of the CBBH for 2006 incorporates the budgets of the BiH Institutions, central governments of
both entities and Brcko District, extra budgetary funds, cantonal budgets in FBiH, and municipalities (a
detailed overview of budget execution by levels of government is presented in Table 6a in the
Appendix). Knowing that these constitute the first time published official consolidated information on
execution of the general government budget in 2006, we will look back on the accomplished results and
trends in the structure of revenues and expenditures. However, since at the time of writing of this
report the Central Bank did not yet publish the consolidated fiscal data for the first two quarters of
2006, in the follow-up we will analyze the budget execution results at the following three central levels
of government: Institutions of BiH, FBiH Government and RS Government.
Consolidated Performance of the General Government
Throughout 2006, the trend of improving fiscal performance continued at all levels of
government in BiH. Thus, on the basis of budget execution results at all levels of government of BiH in
2006 a surplus22 of general government is recorded in the amount of 554 mBAM or 2.9% of GDP. Of
that amount the budget of the BiH Institutions has accomplished a surplus of 39 mBAM or 7% of the
22
The CBBH consolidated report shows this item as balance in Net Lending/Borrowing which is calculated as a balance between
net financial assets generated and net liabilities created. In principle, Net Lending/Borrowing is a summary measure showing a
proporiton in which the government is either making the financial assets available to other sectors of economy (Net Lending) or
using the financial resources generated by other sectors (Net Borrowing). This can therefore be considered an indicator of
surplus/ deficit, of financial impact of a government activity on the rest of economy.
25
total general government surplus, the Consolidated FBiH has accomplished 389 mBAM or 70% of the
total surplus, and the Consolidated RS has accomplished 129 mBAM or 23% of the total surplus. Brcko
District is the only level of government in BiH that has a deficit of 4 mBAM in 2006. Strengthening of
fiscal positions at all levels of government in BiH in 2006 is primarily a consequence of indirect taxation
reform and VAT introduction, which both resulted in better tax chargeability, reduction of grey economy
and consequently an incredibly high rate of growth in total revenues.
Graph 9: Comparison of balance by level of government in BiH in 2005 and 2006
(in % GDP)
Source: IMF Estimates and Central Bank of BiH
More specifically, in 2006 the total central government revenues amounted to 8,553 mBAM
which is an increase by 1,596 mBAM or 23% in comparison with the previous year. Acceleration of
growth in the total revenues of no less than 14 percentage points in 2006 is primarily a consequence of
tax growth by 25% or 979 mBAM compared to the previous year, due to spectacular results in VAT
revenues collection. Thus, the taxes23 have reached the amount of 4,875 mBAM or 57% of the total
revenues in 2006.
The second category of revenues that has contributed to the accelerated growth of revenues
are social welfare contributions, which amounted to 2,537 mBAM, which is an increment by 21% or 436
mBAM compared to the same period of the previous year. A fast rate of growth in contributions in 2006
may on one hand be accounted for by the reduction of grey economy and rise in the number of
companies that legalize their activities due to the indirect taxation reform and possibility of exercising
the right to VAT refund, but also due to a lasting trend of growth in employment in BiH. Other revenues
have also accomplished a considerable growth by 21% and thereby reached 1,108 mBAM, which is a
consequence of rise in dividends, fees and reimbursements. One category of revenues that is
continuously recording the trend of decline by 43% is grants amounting to total 34 mBAM.
On the other hand, total expenditures of the general government amounted to 7,552 mBAM,
which is a rise of 21% or 1,290 mBAM compared to the previous year. The growth of total expenditures
is accelerated by no less than 15 percentage points compared to the growth from 2005, generated as a
result of rising expenses at all levels of government for employee wages and salaries. More accurately,
the category of expenditures for employee compensations has reached the amount of 2,220 mBAM
which is a rise by no less than 21% or 391 mBAM compared to the previous year. Strong growth of
23
Since the CBBH has not yet published the data on the amount of collcted revenues by individual types of taxes, it is impossible
to analyze the extent to which any specific type of taxes has contributed to the overall growth in tax revenues.
26
employee salaries and wages is primarily a consequence of the defense reform and transfer of powers
from the entity to the state levels, as a result of which in the Defense Ministry of BiH the number of
employees has risen from 268 in 2005 to 13,070 in 2006. In 2006, there was also a trend of recruitment
of employees in the newly established state institutions whose establishment was set as a condition
precedent to the continuation of EU accession and integration process (the Market Supervision Agency,
the Food Safety Agency, BiH Institute for Standardization, BiH Institute for Metrology, BiH Institute for
Intellectual Property), and increase in the number of employees employed with the already existing
institutions – BiH State Border Service, State Investigation and Protection Agency (SIPA), the Ministry of
Civil Affairs. The growth of this category of general government expenditures was also influenced by the
increase of wages for those employed in the institutions of the Federation BiH, as a result of which the
wage level has been made equal to the wages in the BiH State institutions.
Graph 10: Allocations for General Government Wages (in % of GDP)
Source: GFS CBBH; MTFE BiH;
As a result of institutional strengthening and increase in the number of employees in the BiH
Institutions, but also at other levels of government the general government expenditure categories use
of goods and services have expanded by 31% or 463 mBAM in 2006. Due to that, this category of
expenditures has reached 26% of the total expenditures or 1,980 mBAM. Social contributions is still the
most relevant category of expenditures with 32% share or 2,426 mBAM in 2006. This category has
realized the growth of 10% in 2006, which is caused by the increase of social contributions assigned
from the Budget of FBiH to the following categories: Disabled, War Veterans, Holders of War Medals and
Awards, Payment of Pension Arrears, and Recovery of Frozen Foreign Currency Account Depositors, or
Addressing the Housing Question for War Veterans and Returnees to the Republika Srpska. Subsidies is a
category that has the recorded a significant growth of 93% and reached 10 mBAM, but still represents a
minor category within the total expenditures at all levels of government in BiH. The growth of subsidies
is a consequence of the program for alleviation of negative VAT impact, and the increase of subsidies
designated for farmers, and for restructuring of industry and mining from the budgets of FBiH and RS.
Grants rose at a high rate of 43% and amounted to 311 mBAM in 2006, which is an effect of transfers of
funds to lower levels of government and special programs in FBiH and RS. Interests have stable growth
and share in the total expenditures, which is caused by an up-to-date payment of external debt at all
levels of government.
Net procurement of non-financial assets, as an indicator of capital investments at various levels
27
of government24, shows a twice-faster rate of growth in 2006. Capital expenditures and other nonfinancial assets have reached 447 mBAM at the general government level in 2006, which is a growth of
no less than 54%. Particularly fast growth of the capital expenditure category is recorded in FBiH (121%)
due to procurement of equipment and land, and in RS (25%) – investment into buildings and public
infrastructure investments.
Execution of Budgets at the Central Government Levels
Since at the time when this report was developed not all governments in BiH adopted the
budget execution for the first two quarters of 2007, the data in the two diagrams below are just
preliminary estimates.
Graph 11: Total revenues...
..... and total expenditures of the central government levels (in mBAM)
24
In this category investments in fixed assets (land, equipment, and buidlings) make 90% of all non-financial investments at
almost all government levels.
28
Source: Ministry of Finance and Treasury of BiH and ministries of finance of FBiH and RS
Since the total revenues have recorded faster growth then the expenditures, over the first six
months of 2007 all three central budgetary levels have recorded surplus in the total amount of 151
mBAM, or 1% of the estimated GDP for 2007, even after grants designated as budgetary support are
excluded from the fiscal balances. However, surplus in 2007H1 is around 22% lower than the one
generated in the same period last year, which is a consequence of stronger decline of surplus in RS (by
75%, with 81 million in 2006H1 compared to 20 mBAM in 2007H1), but also a moderate decline of
surplus of BiH Institutions (by 2.5% with 66 mBAM in 2006H1 compared to 65 mBAM in 2007H1). The
only central budgetary level that has recorded a continued growth of surplus in 2007H1 is FBiH
Government, from 41% or 46 mBAM to no less than 65 mBAM in the first six months of 2007.
The said changes in fiscal balances have occurred as a result of the following trend in the
structure of revenues and expenditures of the central budgetary levels (a detailed overview of revenues
and expenditures by an economic classification for the period 2005-2007 is presented in the Appendix,
Table 6b).
• Over the first six months of 2007 the total revenues25 in the budget of BiH Institutions (IBiH) have
risen by 16.3% or 55 mBAM reaching thereby 394.5 mBAM. The growth of total revenues has been
accomplished primarily as a consequence of a continued trend of growth in indirect taxes by 11%
(the only category of taxes levied at the state level), and in the amount of 309.8 mBAM in 2007H1.
However, the category non-tax revenues expanded in 2007H1 by no less than 108%, so as a result
28% more of these revenues have been collected over this period than those that were originally
planned. The non-tax revenues amounted to 67.6 mBAM, while their rise was caused by the rise of
administrative fees and dues for passports due to the expansion of diplomatic and consular
network, and fees charged by the Communications Regulatory Agency. Grants, being the last
category of revenues at the state level, have accomplished the growth of the incredibly high 600% in
2007H1, and thus reached 14.4 mBAM, which is fully along the lines of the planned growth. This
level of growth is a result of a donation granted by the Greek Government for purposes of
construction of the BiH Common Institution Building, which amounted to 7.7 mBAM or 57% of the
total grants awarded in 2007H1.
Total expenditures of the budget of BiH Institutions have increased by 16.5% in 2007H1 and
amounted to 315.4 mBAM, which was caused by the rise in expenditures on wages and salaries
caused by employment of new civil servants and employees in the state institutions. This is in fact
the only major category of expenditures with growth in 2007H1 of 15% and almost full execution.
Expenditures on goods and services as well as investment (capital) expenditures (procurement of
equipment, buildings and land) in the budget of BiH Institutions have both recorded a decline of 9%
and 46% respectively in 2007H1, as a consequence of the lack of realization of these categories of
expenditures, due to the delays in adopting the 2007 Budget.
• Total revenues of the Federation Government increased by 24% and amounted to 492.8 mBAM in
the first six months of 2007. Of that amount tax revenues amounted to 436.3 mBAM, and the
growth of total revenues is, like in the case of the Institutions of BiH, a consequence of growth of
indirect taxes by 25%, and other taxes by 23%, whereas the other categories of taxes, such as: tax
revenues from international trade and transactions, direct tax revenues declined in 2007H1. Non-tax
revenues have also recorded a decline in 2007H1 of 2.6%, caused by delays in payment of dividends,
25
This item includes also the grants as support to the budget at all central levels of government hereinafter;
29
shares in the profit of public companies, rents, and revenues from GSM license in 2007H1.
Total expenditures of the Federation Government, in the first six months of 2007, also increased by
22% and amounted to 427.4 mBAM. Fast growth of expenditures in FBiH is implied by the growth of
expenditures in the categories employee wages and salaries (31%), or expenditures on goods and
services (23%), which is a consequence of a rising level of wages in the institutions of FBiH reached
in the second half of 2006. Capital expenditures rose by incredible 309% in 2007H1, as a
consequence of continued investments in the infrastructure projects of the Federation Government
in 2007- Sarajevo-Zenica highway, reconstruction and maintenance of regional roads, and
consequently also intensified procurement of equipment and materials. This category of
expenditures will have a considerable growth throughout the rest of the year, since the majority of
main infrastructure projects are planned for the second half of the year.
Box 1: Performance of extrabudgetary funds in FBiH
In the first six months of 2007, there is an evident trend of accelerated growth of
revenues in all extrabudgetary funds in FBiH, compared to the same period of the previous year.
In Table 1 we can see that the total revenues through contribution of all extrabudgetary funds in
FBiH increased by 15.8% in 2007H1, and amounted to 945.7 mBAM. Of that amount the faster
growth of contribution revenues was recorded in the Pension and Disability Insurnace Fund, of
16.8%, which is at the same time the largest extrabudgetary fund in FBiH in which 56% of all
contribution revenues was generated in 2007H1.
Table 4: Growth of revenues from contributions in FBiH
Prihodi od
Fondovi za
Fondovi za zdravstvo
zapošljavanje
(10+1)
(10+1)PIO/MI
FONDOVIO
P1
42,859,4
329,309,3
82
444,549,1
74
816,718,0
76
Source: Federation Ministry of Finance
P1
49,797,9
376,829,3
79
519,089,2
39
945,716,5
74
%
16.2
14.4
%
16.8
%
15.8
%
Solid performance in collection of this category of revenues can for the most part be
explained by the results that the so-called „off-the-book work inspection action“ started
producing even before the official start foreseen for July 2007. Therefore only in June 2007 the
number of insurance beneficiaries in the Fund incrased by 7,026 persons, which is a growth of
316% compared with the same period of the preceding year.
•
Total revenues of the Republika Srpska Government increased by the lowest growth rate of 7% in
the first six months of 2007, compared to the results achieved by the remaining two central levels of
government, and amounted to 566.8 mBAM. Somewhat slower growth of revenues in the RS
Government Budget is a result of moderate growth of tax revenues by 8,2%, but also of decline of
non-tax revenues by -1.3% in 2007H1. However, the revenues from indirect taxes as the most
important category of revenues increased by a strong growth rate of 14% in 2007H1 and amounted
to 389.3 mBAM. It is especially important to emphasize the exceptional growth of direct taxes (profit
tax, income tax and capital gain tax) in 2007H1 of 94%, which is primarily a result of amendments to
the Law on Income and Profit Tax in RS, adopted in the second half of 2006. Other categories of tax
revenues, such as – wage and labor force tax, tax arrears on turnover of goods and services dropped
30
(8% and 82% respectively) in 2007H1.
On the other hand, total expenditures of the RS Government rose by a significant rate of 22% in
the first six months of 2007 and reached the amount of 545.4 mBAM. The fast growth of expenditures in
2007H1 is primarily a consequence of growth in operating expenditures: expenditures on wages and
salaries to employees of 9%, or expenditures for goods and services of 22% which still constitute a
dominant category of expenditures. Their growth is a result of the rising number of those employed with
the institutions of RS Government in 2007H1. However, in 2007H1 special expansion happened in terms
of RS capital expenditures of 222%, which is a consequence of public investments (RS Government
Building, APIF building in Bijeljina, reconstruction of facilities for the needs of Banja Luka University,
etc.), which is an encouraging trend in terms of the structure of RS Government expenditures.
31
Box 2: Plan of Spending the Proceeds Obtained through Privatization of RS Telecom
In June 2007, RS Government deposited on the accounts held with of RS banks the proceeds
obtained from privatization of RS Telecom in the amount of 1,259 mBAM. Since this represents an inflow
of funds in the amount 19.3% of RS GDP for 2006, it is very important to look into the plan of how this
important amount of additional revenues will be spent by RS Government.
Table..., therefore, presents the plan of investing the proceeds RS Government obtained from
privatization of RS Telecom into priority sectors through „RS Development Program“ for the period 20072010.
Table 5: Plan of investing the RS Telecom privatization proceeds
Amount (mBAM)
Total proceeds from RS Telecom Privatization
Share
1,259.7
100%
Economic-social program
Infrastructure
Development of employment and human resources
Pension system reform
Health care system reform
592.1
262.1
80.0
200.0
50.0
47%
21%
6%
16%
4%
Economic development program
Development of RS comparative advantages
Development of entrepreneurship and SMEs
Corporate restructuring and bankruptcy
Local initiatives
Housing development
667.6
190.6
167.0
60.0
150.0
100.0
53%
15%
13%
5%
12%
8%
Source: RS Finance Ministry
From the above data we can see that the funds obtained from privatization will be used for
investment purposes, and not for coverage of current expenditures, which will be a strong incentive for
develpment of investments, production and economic growth, but will also have a stabilizing
macroeconomic influence from the point of view of consumption and inflation. Also, of the total amount of
the obtained privatization proceeds, only the economic-social program or socially beneficial investments
will be realized through the RS Budget System, whereas all profitable invesements that are part of the
Economic Development Program will be realized by way of RS Investement Development Bank (IRBRS).
Therefore, within the coming three years we may expect an additional inflow of revenues prihoda and
growth of the RS Budget on these grounds.
Finally, the preliminary definition of investment dynamics is presented in the following table,
where we can see that the second and third year will be vital in that sense:
Investment dynamics (in mBAM)
In % of total proceeds
2007
100.7
8%
2008
440.9
35%
2009
453.5
36%
2010
264.5
21%
Source: RS Finance Ministry
Public External Debt
BiH external debt continues the descending trend in the first six months of 2007. The balance of
BiH external debt in late 2007H1 amounted to 4,012 mBAM or 19.6% of estimated GDP for 2007. This
represents a further decline of 3.7% or 152 mBAM in absolute figures, compared to the balance of debt
recorded in the same period of the preceding year.
Graph 12 shows the structure of debt by creditors, clearly showing that the World Bank is still
the most important creditor whose share as creditor is 53% of the total external debt of BiH (of which
32
the IDA loans make 1,438 mBAM, and IBRD 670 mBAM). Then, the other most important creditors are
Paris and London Club of Creditors with a stable share in the external debt of BiH of 23% and 6%
respectively. In the last couple of years there is a clear trend of growing share of European loans
(European Investment Bank, EBRD and European Commission), which is in line with the continued
process of bringing BiH closer to EU integration. Having in mind that BiH did not have any new credit
arrangements with IMF, this creditor continues to have a descending trend in external debt of BiH also
in 2007H1.
Graph 12: Balance and Structure of BiH External Debt (2004-2007)
Source: Ministry of Finance and Treasury of BiH
Over the first six months 2007, Bosnia and Herzegovina made timely payments of all liabilities in
the name of foreign debt servicing in the total amount of 126.2 mBAM, which represents around 8.6%
of central governments’ total revenues or 4.3% of commodities exports in 2007H1, or 0.6% of GDP
estimated for 2007.
Of the paid amount, 60% was related to payment of the principal amount, whereas 40% to
installment payment of due interest. If liable parties are to be taken as the criterion, the settled
liabilities of FBiH participate with 79 million or 62% of the total liabilities, while the RS liabilities
participate with 49 million or 38%. From the point of view of creditors, most funds or 37% of them was
paid to the World Bank, 17% to IMF, and 10% was paid to each the Paris Club of Creditors and the
European Investment Bank.
3. PRICES, MONEY AND FINANCIAL SECTOR
Prices
•
•
The Agency for Statistics of BiH has published the state level Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the
first time
After the one-off rise in the inflation level in 2006, prices in BiH were fully stabilized at around 1%
over the first six months of 2007.
In late July 2007, the Agency for Statistics of BiH published for the first time the Consumer Price
33
Index at the level of BiH (CPI) in accordance with the methodology of measuring inflation of consumer
prices in EU. Since for the first time this index represents a referential and internationally comparable
measuring of inflation at the level of BiH for the period from January 2005 to March 2007, we will look
back on the results obtained.
Box 1: Methodological explanation of the Consumer Price Index in BiH:
In accordance with the approach and methodlolgy of EUROSTAT consumer price inflation
measurement, the consumer price index in BiH was drawn up as a pure price index that reflects any change
recorded in terms of current prices compated to base reference period. According to European regulation, CPI
incorporates „...those goods and services included into the final monetary consupmtion of households,
whereas their classification is made in accordance with 4-digit categories of Classification of Individual
Consumption by Purpose - COICOP). In 2006, a sigle basket of products and services comprising CPI in BiH was
made of 646 products, whereas the index weighted values reflecting the consumption structure in BiH are
arrived at on the basis of data recevied in the Household Budget Survey - HBS) carreied out in 2004.
Collectoin of consumer price information is carried out in six towns/cities of the Republika Srpska (Banja Luka,
Bijeljina, Doboj, East Sarajevo, Prijedor, Trebinje), five towns/cities of the Federation of BiH (Bihać, Mostar,
Sarajevo, Tuzla and Zenica), and in Brcko District, where in accordance with the single basket of goods and
services the indices are calculated starting from the level of citises/towns, through the entities up to the level
of BiH State. The presented analysis of consumer price inflation applies to the period from January 2005 to
March 2007, for which the indices are calculated by using a common base value 2005=100.
As we can see in Graph 13, the year 2006 was marked by a one-off pressure on the inflation
level caused by VAT introduction and rise in administrative price levels of gas and electric power in FBiH,
which resulted in an anticipated higher level of inflation of 6,1% y/y in 2006, measured by the Consumer
Price Index (CPI). Thus we may come to the conclusion that the inflation measured by the consumer
price index was by around one percentage point lower then the one measured so far by available indices
– Living Costs Index (LCI) and Retail Price Index (RPI) (7.2% and 7.5% y/y).
At the time when this report was being developed, available were only the data for the first
quarter of 2007, based on which we can see that the price have stabilized of prices in BiH in 2007.
Accordingly, the inflation level in 2007Q1 amounted to only 0.8% y/y, which is primarily a consequence
of price stabilization in the categories of food and beverages (0.9% y/y), or housing and energy sources
(3.5% y/y) that taken together make no less than 55% of consumption of an average BiH household, or
to that extent influence the consumer price inflation level in BiH. Stabilization of prices in the said two
key categories of the consumer prices is a result of food price leveling in 2007 after considerable
increase recorded in 2006 following VAT introduction, but also of the decline of prices of energy sources
at the BiH market (see Graph 13). Also, even all other categories of CPI compared to COICOP
consumption classification, such as: alcohol and tobacco, clothing and footwear, furnishings and
household maintenance, health care, transport, telecommunications, culture and recreation, restaurants
and hotels and various goods and services have now been stabilized and therefore in certain categories
we can even witness the cases of price deflation (Table 6).
Since in the second quarter of 2007 there were no significant changes on the market that could
have any major influence on the price growth, we believe that the inflation level for the first six months
is in line the level recorded in the first quarter of the year, and it amounts to approximately 1% y/y.
Graph 13: Inflation dynamics in BiH
(same month of the preceding year =100)....
34
......selected categories of products
Source: BHAS;
35
Table 6: Consumer Price Index in BiH
Kod
00
01
02
Opis koda
OPĆI INDEKS
HRANA I
BEZALKOHOLNI
NAPICI
ALKOHOL I DUHAN
Vrsta 2005=1
2005=
2005=1
indeksa 00 m/m y/y 100 m/m y/y 00 m/m
Ponder (%)
100.0
31.3
03
y/y
ODJEĆA I OBUĆA
2005=1
00 m/m
3.6
5.1
y/y
04
05
STANOVANJE,
NAMJEŠTAJ,
VODOOPSKRBA, KUĆANSKI UREðAJI
ELEKTRIČNA
I REDOVITO
ENERGIJA, PLIN I ODRŽAVANJE KUĆE
2005=
100 m/m
23.5
y/y
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
ZDRAVSTVO
PRIJEVOZ
VEZE
REKREACIJA I
KULTURA
OBRAZOVANJE
RESTORANI I HOTELI
RAZLIČITE ROBE I
USLUGE
2005=
2005=
100 m/m y/y 100 m/m
6.9
3.7
y/y
2005=1
2005=1
2005=1
2005=1
2005=1
00 m/m y/y 00 m/m y/y 00 m/m y/y 00 m/m y/y 00 m/m
9.9
2.5
3.8
1.0
2.6
y/y
2005=
100 m/m
y/y
6.2
I 2006
106.0 4.0 107.2 107.6 6.5 109.2 99.8 0.0
100.2 101.0 1.7 100.5 117.1 6.1 114.0 101.3 1.4 101.3 108.8 9.2 108.8 103.2 0.9 110.1 112.6 3.9 114.7 104.1 4.3 103.8 100.8 0.5 101.0 101.3
1.2 101.4 101.1 0.6
101.5
II 2006
106.4 0.4 107.0 108.6 0.9 109.0 99.9 0.1
100.0 100.9 -0.1 100.5 117.4 0.2 112.6 101.4 0.1 101.4 109.0 0.2 109.0 103.4 0.2 110.2 112.8 0.2 115.0 104.4 0.3 103.9 101.0 0.1 101.2 102.4
1.1 102.5 101.3 0.2
101.6
III 2006
106.5 0.1 106.5 108.9 0.4 108.0 100.0 0.1
99.9
100.8 -0.1 100.3 117.4 0.0 112.5 101.3 -0.1 101.2 109.1 0.0 109.0 102.9 -0.5 108.4 113.0 0.2 114.6 104.4 0.0 104.0 101.1 0.2 101.3 103.4
1.0 103.5 101.2 -0.1 101.4
IV 2006
105.6 -0.9 106.4 109.8 0.7 108.5 100.2 0.2
99.9
99.5 -1.3
0.4 103.9 101.2 0.0
V 2006
106.5 0.9 107.3 111.2 1.4 109.8 100.3 0.1
100.2
99.3 -0.2
98.8 105.6 0.2 114.1 101.2 0.0 101.3 108.9 0.0 108.8 106.5 2.7 109.3 114.8 0.8 116.5 104.1 -0.1 104.1 101.0 -0.1 101.2 103.9
0.1 104.1 101.3 0.1
101.5
VI 2006
106.3 -0.2 106.9 110.4 -0.7 109.3 100.0 -0.2
99.9
99.2 -0.1
99.1 106.1 0.5 114.5 101.1 -0.1 101.3 108.9 0.0 108.8 106.9 0.4 107.8 113.6 -1.1 115.4 104.1 0.0 104.2 101.0 0.0 101.2 103.9
0.0 103.8 101.4 0.0
101.5
VII 2006
105.7 -0.6 106.2 108.2 -2.0 108.3 100.0 0.0
99.9
98.9 -0.3
98.9 106.6 0.4 114.1 101.1 0.0 101.0 109.0 0.1 109.0 107.6 0.6 105.7 113.6 0.0 115.6 104.1 0.0 104.3 101.1 0.0 101.2 104.1
0.2 104.0 101.4 0.0
101.4
VIII 2006 105.5 -0.1 106.5 106.8 -1.2 108.3 100.0 0.0
100.0
98.5 -0.4
98.9 107.8 1.1 115.3 101.1 0.0 101.0 109.1 0.0 109.0 108.9 1.3 106.3 114.3 0.6 116.3 104.1 0.0 104.5 101.1 0.0 101.2 104.2
0.1 104.2 101.3 -0.1 101.3
105.6 0.1 105.7 106.7 -0.1 107.8 100.1 0.1
100.1
98.5
0.0
98.7 108.8 1.0 114.8 101.2 0.1 101.1 109.0 0.0 109.0 108.0 -0.8 101.7 114.2 0.0 116.3 105.8 1.6 105.9 102.4 1.4 101.9 104.6
0.3 104.6 101.5 0.1
101.3
101.1
IX 2006
99.1 105.4 -10.3 113.9 101.2 -0.1 101.2 108.9 -0.2 108.9 103.7 0.8 106.2 114.0 0.9 115.6 104.2 -0.2 104.0 101.1 0.0 101.3 103.8
101.4
X 2006
106.3 0.7 104.9 106.6 -0.2 107.6 100.0 -0.2
99.9
98.4 -0.2
98.8 121.1 11.3 111.1 101.2 0.0 101.2 109.0 -0.1 108.7 104.2 -3.6 98.0 114.2 0.0 116.3 105.9 0.1 106.1 103.8 1.4 103.5 104.9
0.3 104.8 101.5 0.1
XI 2006
106.4 0.0 104.6 106.8 0.2 107.0 99.9 0.0
100.0
98.0 -0.3
98.6 121.5 0.3 110.7 101.2 0.0 101.3 108.9 0.0 109.4 103.7 -0.5 99.6 113.7 -0.5 105.0 106.0 0.0 106.2 104.0 0.2 103.7 104.9
0.0 104.8 101.5 -0.1 101.0
XII 2006
106.6 0.2 104.6 107.5 0.7 106.4 100.1 0.1
100.2
97.8 -0.3
98.4 121.4 -0.1 110.0 101.1 -0.1 101.1 109.2 0.3 109.6 103.7 0.0 101.4 113.6 -0.1 104.8 106.0 0.1 106.3 104.0 0.0 103.7 105.0
0.1 104.9 101.5 0.1
101.1
I 2007
106.9 0.3 100.9 108.6 1.0 100.9 100.2 0.2
100.4
97.7 -0.1
96.8 121.5 0.1 103.8 101.2 0.1 99.9 109.3 0.1 100.4 102.4 -1.3 99.2 115.7 1.9 102.8 106.1 0.0 101.9 104.8 0.8 103.9 105.2
0.3 103.9 101.6 0.1
100.5
II 2007
107.2 0.3 100.7 109.5 0.9 100.9 100.2 -0.1 100.3
97.6 -0.1
96.8 121.5 -0.1 103.5 101.1 -0.1 99.7 109.2 -0.1 100.2 102.2 -0.3 98.8 115.7 0.0 102.6 106.2 0.2 101.8 105.4 0.5 104.4 105.4
0.1 102.9 101.6 0.0
100.3
III 2007
107.3 0.1 100.7 109.8 0.3 100.8 100.3 0.1
97.6 -0.1
96.8 121.5 0.0 103.5 101.1 0.0 99.9 109.4 0.2 100.3 102.2 0.0 99.3 115.7 0.0 102.4 106.3 0.0 101.8 105.4 0.0 104.2 105.4
0.0 101.9 101.7 0.1
100.5
100.3
Source: BiH Agency for Statistics (BHAS)
36
It is however important to note that at the time of writing this report, discussion took place
in BiH about a potential increase in prices of cereals as a consequence of draught period and its
disastrous effect on crops, but also as consequences of increase of their prices at the world
markets. Thus we can see that as early as within in the first six months of 2006, the import prices of
corn and wheat rose by no less than 50% according to the data of the Indirect Taxation Authority
(ITA), with the concurrently present trend of mild growth of import prices also in other groups of
alimentary products (meat, pasta, fat).
The trend of price development on the world cereals and grain market could also have
effect on the increase of prices on the BiH market, not only through the increase in the prices of
flour and mill&bakery industry products, but also due to the increased costs of animal food and
fodder it could also have indirect effects on the growth in prices of other products of animal origin,
and through that consequentially on the general level of prices in BiH.
Development of the Monetary and Banking Sector in
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Development of Monetary Variables
•
•
There were no changes in the policy of the Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina;
therefore, the rate of mandatory reserves remained at the same level of 15%.
Accelerated growth was recorded in terms of monetary aggregates in the first six months of
2007, due to expansion of deposits in domestic currency in the banking sector
Table 7 – Indicators of stability in the monetary and banking sectors
Monetary and financial indicators
2004H1
2005H1
2006H1
2007H1
M2 (mBAM)
M2 (% change, y/y)
M2/M0
M2/Gross foreign reserves (%)
M0/Gross foreign reserves (%)
6144.6
19.9
48.5
50.5
107.1
7277.1
18.4
44.7
49.8
110.2
8799.3
20.9
47.6
53.4
110.1
11194.4
27.2
49.0
52.9
108.2
2.06
2.24
2.10
1.90
Gross foreign reserves (mBAM)
Import months /foreign reserves
3,184.2
4.09
3,619.0
4.08
4,678.1
4.59
5,899.2
5.12
Loans total
Deposit-loan coverage (%)
Level of "dollarizatoin" in the banking
sector
Interest margin
5318.0
92.8
6680.7
90.1
8348.4
92.0
10607.1
105.5
45.9
7.4
49.1
6.9
46.8
6.2
49.9
5.8
Multiplication of money in the banking
sector (M2/M0)
Source: Central Bank of BiH
In the first six months of 2007 there continued a strong expansion of all monetary variables
in BiH that was started in 2006. So, in late 2007H1 the total broad monetary aggregate or
37
monetary stock in a broader sense - (M2)26 registered in the BiH banking sector reached 11.2 billion
BAM, which is an increase of no less than 2.4 billion BAM or 27.2% compared to the same period of
the previous year. The rate recorded in 2007H1 is higher by no less than 7 percentage points
compared with the same period of 2006, or 3 percentage points compared to the end of 2006.
The said acceleration of growth of the broadest monetary aggregate (M2) should primarily
be viewed through the continuous inflow of funds into the banking sector in the form of deposits of
private companies and households, but should also be observed indirectly through the permanent
growth of VAT-based income and their redistribution towards the central levels of government
(cantons, municipalities, funds) that are registered through their growth of deposits in the banking
sector.
Thus the particular leading category of monetary stock – Transaction Money (M1)27 has had
the rate of growth of 30% y/y in 2007H1 and reached the share of 51% in the total monetary stock.
Such fast growth of M1 at the end of 2007H1 is indeed a result of expansion of sight deposits in
domestic currency which had a rate of growth reaching 38% y/y and thus had the highest individual
contribution to the growth rate of M2, reaching 11,5 percentage points (see Graph 14). This growth
of short-term deposits in domestic currency is primarily a consequence of expansion of deposits of
private companies, which have a permanent trend of accelerated growth throughout 2007H1
ending with the growth rate of no less than 48% at the end of the period. The said expansion of
short-term deposits in domestic currency should be viewed in the light of permanent inflow of
funds to the banking sector, due to the increased VAT-based revenues. More specifically, we can
see a permanent trend of growth in short-term deposits at the non-central levels of government
(cantons, municipalities and funds), which is a consequence of reallocation of VAT funds from the
central levels of government towards lower levels.
Furthermore, the second category of transaction money (M1) – currency outside banks had
a stable growth rate, but is still recording a permanent tendency of decline of its share in the
monetary stock which at the end of 2007H1 was total 18%. The said trends of expansion of shortterm deposits in domestic currency, with the concurrently declining share of cash may be also be
seen as an important indicator of the declining share of grey economy in BiH. This clearly indicates
that an ever rising number of transactions are being registered through the courses of official
economy and realized through accounts held with banks, and less and less are financed with cash
which is primarily a characteristic of grey economy. Having in mind that the above changes in the
banking sector have been particularly underpinned since the VAT introduction, there is an
indication of its effect on the decline of grey economy.
Graph 14: Dynamics of growth of monetary aggregates and their contributions to growth of M2 monetary
stock
26
27
M2- (broad money) consists of transaction money (M1) and quasi money (QM).
M1- (transaction money)-consists of currency outside the banks and sight deposits in domestic currency.
38
Source: Central Bank of BiH
On the other hand, also the savings category of monetary aggregates – Quasi Money
(QM) has also recorded an acceleration of growth rate in 2007H1, which amounted to 26% y/y at
the end of the period, which is by 3 percentage points higher compared to the same period of the
previous year. The acceleration of growth in the savings category of monetary aggregates is an
effect of a record rate of growth in savings deposits in domestic currency of no less than 43% y/y in
2007H1. Such growth is primarily a consequence of growth in saving deposits of private companies,
households and non-centralized levels of government.
However, the said acceleration of growth of deposits in the banking sector is, and
consequential expansion of broad money is not worrying from the point of view of stability of the
currency board arrangement. Therefore in Table 4 we can see that all indicators of the monetary
sector stability remained at a satisfactory level in 2007H1.
More specifically, the level of coverage of the total money stock (M2) with Reserve Money
(M0), which has been directly created by the Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina and is by
definition completely covered with the reserve foreign currency (Euro), is continuously improving
and at the end of 2007H1 it reached 49%. This clearly demonstrates that, in spite of the fast
expansion created through the banking sector, the monetary stock is adequately and in a stable
way covered with the reserve foreign currency (Euro) with which the domestic currency (BAM) is
directly connected, which provides a significant level of credibility to the currency board
arrangement in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
28
Another important indicator is also the coverage of total monetary stock with gross foreign
currency reserves at the disposal of the Central Bank of BiH. Thus we can see that the level of
coverage of M2 with foreign reserves in 2007H1 has remained almost at the same level with the
one recorded in the same period of the previous year and amounts to 52.9%. These two indicators
of coverage are extremely important since they show us to what extent the deposits in the banking
sector, which make the most of the monetary stock (M2), are adequately secured with the foreign
currency (in our case Euros) which is actually the basic requirement for the safe functioning of the
currency board arrangement.
Foreign Currency Reserves of the Central Bank BiH
28
QM- (kvazi novac)- sastoji se od depozita po viñenju u stranoj valuti te oročenih i štednih depozita u stranoj i domaćoj
valuti.
39
In late June 2007, gross foreign currency reserves of the Central Bank of BiH reached the
level of 5.9 billion BAM, which is a rise by no less than 1. 2 billion BAM or by 26% compared to the
same period of the previous year. Thus in 2007H1 there was a mild slowdown in the rate of growth
of gross foreign currency reserves of 3 percentage points, compared to the dynamics of growth
recorded in 2006.
The said slowdown in the rate of growth of foreign currency reserves is primarily a result of
deteriorated relations in the foreign trade flow of BiH in 2007H1. After the highest rates of growth
in exports and improvement of foreign trade flow in 2006 as a direct consequence of VAT
introduction in BiH, in 2007H1 the exports growth rates have slowed down as expected (19%), and
„recovery“ in the imports growth rates to the same level as it was prior to the VAT introduction
(29%). However, the recorded grow rate in the foreign currency reserves is still exceptionally high,
whereas the main sources of permanent inflow of foreign currency funds from abroad, which
influence the fast growth of foreign currency reserves, may be identified through:
1)
The Inflow of foreign currency by way of increasing the foreign currency liabilities of
commercial banks in BiH (mostly deposits and loans of mother banks to their subsidiaries in BiH),
which amounted to no less than 480 mBAM in 2007H1, which is the amount of inflow higher
than the one recorded in the entire 2006.
2)
The inflow of funds generated through foreign direct investments in BiH amounting to
around 1,5 billion BAM in 2007H1, which is the highest inflow of funds until now in the first six
months in BiH.
3)
The inflows registered through the balance of payment of BiH for 2007Q1: revenues
from abroad in the form of compensations paid to employees and profit from investments made
abroad, 179 mBAM, remittances to the government sector from abroad 60 mBAM, and
remittances to the population sector and other sectors made from abroad in the amount of 629
mBAM.
4)
The earnings of CBBH from the foreign reserves investments in the form of deposits
made with foreign banks and investments made into first-class securities amounted to 27 mBAM
in 2007H1.
The foreign reserves of the Central Bank of BiH have been placed mostly in the form of
deposits with foreign banks in the amount of 5.4 billion BAM or 92% of the total amount of foreign
reserves, which is a decline of share of 7 percentage points if compared to the same period of the
previous year. This decline of share of the main component of foreign reserves went mostly at the
expense of increase of investments made into the first-class foreign securities which amounted to
400 mBAM or 6.8% of the total foreign reserves at the end of 2007H129.
The remaining share of the foreign reserves of 1.7% or 98 mBAM is there in the form of
foreign currencies held with the CBBH Treasury (0.6%), and other forms of investing (1.1%). The
foreign reserve categories that the CBBH is not in possession of are gold or special drawing rights
with IMF.
Even though in 2007H1 the situation got worse in terms of foreign trade balance relations,
the level at which imports are covered with foreign reserves has still continued with an upward
trend. At the end of 2007H1 the level of gross foreign reserves was sufficient for funding 5 months
of an average BiH import, which is a satisfactory coefficient from the financial stability point of
29
Od novembra 2005. godine došlo je do izmjene politike investiranja deviznih rezervi CBBH od kada je uvedena izmjena
kojom CBBH može 25% portofolija ulagati u prvoklasne vrijednosne papire sa rokom dospijeća od tri godine, dok se 75% i
dalje investira u prvoklasne depozite u ino bankama sa rokom dospijeća do jedne godine.
40
view30.
It would be very important to emphasize that in June 2007 the transfer and realization of
funds from RS Telecom privatization were carried out to the accounts of the RS Government in the
RS banking system in the amount of 1.2 billion BAM. Since this is the amount of foreign direct
investment equal to approximately 6% of GDP of BiH from 2006, it is very important to consider
what kind of implications it could have not only on the development of monetary and banking
variables in the rest of 2007, but also in the light of a wider macroeconomic effect it may have on
BiH economy.
As the proceeds from privatization are deposited in the banks in the form of RS
Government foreign currency deposits, these have mot yet had any influence either on the foreign
reserves growth and thus on monetary stock in BiH, or on the growth of credit activity in BiH. Once
the proceeds obtained through RS Telecom privatization have started being spent and placed in the
form of loans within the country, then their gradual conversion will start into BAM, which could
substantially reflect on the future growth of not only foreign reserves of CBBH, but also on the
growth of loans and thereby equally on the total monetary stock in. This is why we can expect this
to become a considerable impetus of their growth, and to see that their accelerated dynamics of
growth of over 20% y/y is to continue even in the second half of 2007, reaching by that the highest
amounts ever.
Development of the BiH Banking Sector
•
•
•
In the first half of 2007, there was no progress on the issue of consolidation of banking
supervision and a Law on Banks at the State level
Entity Banking Agencies extended supervision to include the microcredit organisation
sector (MCO)
Processes of integration, consolidation and rapid growth of the banking sector
continued
Institutional development
A key challenge in terms of further strengthening and development of the banking sector
has remained the issue of unification of the banking market, in other words, the transfer of the
banking supervision and legislation to the State level. In the first half of 2007, an expected
breakthrough did not happen, since no political consensus was reached on the issue of the unified
supervision model.
Institutional progress of the first half of 2007 was mostly marked by the extension of
supervision of the Entity Banking Agencies to the microcredit organisations sector (MCO) from the
beginning of 2007. In accordance with the provisions of the Law on Microcredit Organisations, a
MCO must be issued an operation licence by the Entity Banking Agency and must report to the
Agency its financial results on a regular basis. By the end of the year, the Entity Banking Agencies
are expected to extend their supervision to include the leasing sector as well, where some concrete
steps have been made in the Republika Srpska (the Law on Leasing has been adopted, and at the
beginning of 2008, supervision should become operational).
Main indicators of the banking sector
30
Koeficijent pokazuje da se 5 mjeseci uvoza može financirati deviznim rezervama Centralne banke u BiH, u slučaju krize
financiranja deficita tekućeg računa. Prema teoriji meñunarodne trgovine ukupne devizne rezerve bi trebale pokrivati
najmanje 3 mjeseca prosječnog uvoza.
41
In the first half of 2007, trends of growth, consolidation and strengthening of the BiH
banking sector continued. Although in 2007H1 the number of banks remained unchanged (32
banks) – of which 23 in FBiH and 9 in RS, after the integration of LT Gospodarska banka and UPI
banka, and HVC-CPB and Unicredit Zagrebacka banka in FBiH, or Volksbank and Zepter banka in RS,
the number of banks will be additionally consolidated by the end of the year.
Near the end of 2007H1, total assets of the banking sector amounted to 17.7 billion BAM,
which was an increase by fully 38% or 4.8 billion BAM y/y, resulting from a big credit expansion and
fast growth of assets of the key “players” in the market. The enormous expansion of the banking
sector in 2007H1 is expressed in the fact that the share of the banking sector assets reached no less
than 86% of the estimated GDP for 2007, which was an increase by 10 percentage points as
compared to 2006. However, the BiH banking sector is still characterised by an extremely high level
of concentration and intensification of competition, since out of total assets in 2007H1, four “key
players” in the market controlled 68% or 12.1 billion BAM of assets.
In 2007H1, Reiffeisen bank continued to be individually the strongest bank in BiH, with
assets of 3.57 billion BAM or 20% of market share, followed by Hyppo Alpe Adria Group with 3.39
billion BAM or 19.1% of market share, Unicredit Zagrebačka banka and HVB-CPB with 3.35 billion
BAM or 18.9% of market share and NLB with the assets amounting to 1.8 billion BAM or 10.2% of
market share. However, Unicredit Group became the strongest banking group, since it included
Nova banjalucka banka of RS, the assets of which was 503 million BAM at the end of the first half,
so the assets of the group reached 3.8 billion BAM.
Expansion of the banking sector assets was somewhat faster than the growth of capital,
which increased by 26.5% or 419 million BAM, reaching 1.9 billion BAM. The growth of capital
resulted from a high profit that the banking sector generated in 2006 (which was mainly reallocated
to equity capital), or from the growth of share capital from the injection of additional capital into
three banks in the 2007H1 (Postanska banka, Reiffeisen banka and Procredit banka). Because of
this, the capitalisation rate31 of the banks slightly deteriorated as compared to the same period in
2006, amounting to only 12%. Also, another key indicator of capital power of the banking sector,
capital adequacy coefficient32 showed a slight downward trend, amounting to 16.5%.
Consequently, in 2007H1, the above mentioned changes to ownership structure and the
bank integration and consolidation process in BiH continued the trend of reduction of participation
of state capital in the banking sector. So the participation of state capital in the banking sector
decreased from 11.5% to 10.8% in 2007H1, mainly on the account of an increase in domestic
private capital the participation of which grew from 10.2% to 11.2%. This is a result of the above
mentioned injection of additional capital into Postanska banka, which was transformed from the
majority-state owned to a domestic private bank. Foreign capital remained dominant in the
banking sector with a stable 78% share.
Other indicators of stability and success of the banking system have recorded positive
trends in 2007H1. Thus liquidity rate33 improved in 2007H1 at the banking sector level in both
Entities (from 36% to 37% in FBiH, and 48% to 54% in RS). Indicators of assets quality also
improved, so the growth of assets in 2007H1 was fastest for the Category A assets34 and their share
increased by 2 percentage points to 86% in both Entities. The growth of assets was also recorded
for Category B, the share of which increased by one percentage point to 12% of total assets, while
31
Capitalisation rate is a ratio of total capital and assets in the banking sector.
Capital adequacy coefficient is calculated as a ratio of net capital and total risk assets, so the law provides for
a minimum rate of 12%.
33
Liquidity rate is a ratio of short-term and total assets in the banking sector.
34
The Decision on minimum standards for credit risk management and bank assets classification identifies
as Category A (good assets) all items of assets in which no delay in collection of receivables was recorded, as
Category B (assets with special note), items of assets in which the debtor is not longer than 90 days in default,
Category C (sub-standard assets) are those assets where default may range between 90 and 180 days, Category
D (doubtful assets) are those assets where default is between 180 and 270 days, and Category E (loss) includes
all items of assets where the debtor is in default longer than 270 days.
32
42
Categories C and D were stable with 1% share each. In Category E assets there was no placement in
2007H1 again.
Only did profitability indicators return on equity (ROE) and return on assets (ROA)35 record
a slight downward trend in 2007H1, which was a result of a sharp drop in credit rates and as a
consequence, of the reduction of interest margin as the main source of profit in the banking sector.
ROE was thus reduced from 8.6% to 6.3% in FBiH in 2007H1, as compared to the same period of the
previous year, while in RS it remained at the same level, amounting to 7.2%. In other words, ROA
decreased in both Entities from 0.9% to 0.7% in 2007H1.
Growth of loans in the BiH banking sector
•
•
2007H1 recorded again significant growth of loans in the banking sector; Loans reached 10.6
billion BAM, which was an increase by no less than 27% as compared to the same period of
the previous year.
Main source of the fast growth of loans is a boom of consumer loans in the household sector
or loans financing trade activity in the private enterprises sector.
After gradual slowing down of dynamics in growth of loans recorded in the second half of
2006, 2007H1 showed new fast growth of loans in the BiH banking sector. Thus, near the end of
2007H1, total loans placed to all institutional sectors in BiH reached 10.6 billion BAM, which was an
increase by fully 2.3 billion BAM or 27% as compared to the same period of the previous year. Fast
loan growth was a consequence of renewed expansion in growth of imports, trade and
consumption in 2007H1 after their stabilisation in 2006, but it was also contributed by the
continuing dropping trend in interest rates in the banking sector.
Hence it is no wonder that 2007H1 recorded fast growth of loans both in the household
sector and in private non-financial companies. Given that these two sectors are dominant
institutional sectors which had been receiving 91% of total loans from BiH banking sector, in
2007H1 inclusive, (48% as compared to 43%, see Graph 15), these two sectors only contributed
with 25 percentage points to the total loan growth in 2007H1.
Graph 15: Structure and rates of loan growth in BiH banking sector
35
Return on equity (ROE), or return on assets (ROA) are calculated as a ration of net gain and average total
capital, or average net assets in a given period.
43
Source: Central Bank of BiH
After significantly slowing down in 2006H2, dynamics in growth of loans to the household
sector recorded a significant acceleration in the first six months of 2007. So, near the end of
2007H1, loans to households amounted to 5.1 billion BAM, which was an increase by fully 1.1 billion
BAM or 29.1% as compared to the same period of the previous year.
Structure of loans to households by purpose shows that the growth of loans to households
is caused primarily by big expansion of consumer loans that grew at the BiH level at a rate not lower
than 67% y/y, thus reaching 3.2 billion BAM or a 63% share of total loans to households in 2007H1.
The expansion of consumer loans in 2007H1 was a consequence of a drop in interest rates and
simplification for citizens of procedures for this type of loans, in terms of offer, or of the fast growth
of spending and imports, in terms of demand. It is interesting to note that in FBiH there was a
fantastic growth of these loans by no less than 93%, while in RS, the growth of this category of loan
considerably slowed down and amounted to only 7% in 2007H1.
During the whole 2006 and 2007H1, there was a steady trend of housing loans growth in
the household sector, which was mainly caused by a large increase in property prices and costs of
construction materials in BiH in that period. Thus, in 2007H1 the amount of housing loans to
households almost doubled, reaching 1.3 billion BAM or 25% of loans to households.
Graph 16: Structure of loans to households by purpose
(in million BAM)
44
Source: Banking Agencies of FBiH and RS
On the other hand, a category of loans to private non-financial enterprises reached an
amount of 4.6 billion BAM at the end of 2007H1, which was an increase by 27% or 970 million BAM
as compared to the same period in the previous year.
Given that the growth of credits to the private sector is a very significant indicator of
economic activity and growth, it is very important to make an analysis into which activity the largest
amounts of money are placed.
Graph 16 shows that in the last three years there has been a steady trend of a rapid
expansion of loans to the service sector in BiH. Precisely, at the end of 2007H1, out of total loans to
private non-financial companies amounting to 5.6 billion BAM, 58% was invested in service
activities, and only 37% to production sectors such as industry, mining, energy production and
construction. The agriculture sector had a firm share of about 5% in total loans, which was also in
line with the trend recorded in the previous years.
The first half of 2007 recorded particularly fast growth of loans in the trade sector, reaching
2.3 billion BAM or 41% of total loans to companies, which was an increase of share by no less than 7
percentage points as compared to the same period of the previous year. Such fast growth of loans
in this sector can be explained by the fast growth of imports and spending in 2007, after its growth
slowed down in 2006 as a consequence of adjustment to the new taxation system introduced by
VAT.
2007H1 recorded for the first time a significant decrease in loans to the industry sector, by
no less than 10 percentage points as compared to the previous year, so their share was only 22% or
1.2 billion BAM, which was caused by slowing down of the industry growth in BiH in the same
period.
Graph 17: Structure of loans to private non-financial companies
(in %)
45
Source: Banking Agencies of FBiH and RS
The above mentioned distribution of loans by purpose to households and companies
suggests their unfavourable structure from the point of view of potential macroeconomic influences
on the BiH economy. Banking sector loans continue to be used mainly for financing spending and
development of trade activity, while small amounts are placed in production activities which would
contribute to the growth of investment, exports and consequently faster growth of the BiH
economy. If the fast growth of consumer loans recorded in 2007H1 continues for the rest of the
year, it can have a significant impact on the growth of personal consumption, imports and
consequently deterioration of the current account deficit in 2007.
Interest rates
•
Trend of drop in interest rate and interest rate margin in the BiH banking sector continued in
2007H1
The credit boom in 2007H1 was additionally fuelled by a continuing drop in interest rates
on all types of credits both to households and enterprises in the banking sector.
Within the context of credit activity development, it is particularly important to observe
dynamics in the drop in interest rates on loans in domestic currency, given that 90% of loans in the
BiH banks was lending in the convertible mark.
Thus, the sharpest drop in 2007H1 was recorded by interest on short-term loans in BAM to
enterprises and households (by 1 and 0.6 percentage points respectively), amounting on the
average 7.3% and 9.4% respectively, on an annual basis. The sharp drop in interest in these
categories of credits explains the reason for a boom in consumer loans and loans for financing trade
activity and imports.
It is interesting to note that average interest on long-term loans in BAM still do not differ
from short-term ones, amounting to average 7.8% and 9.3% respectively. In this category of loans a
steeper drop was recorded for interest on long-term loans to households in 2007H1 than for those
to enterprises (0.6 percentage points vs. 0.2 percentage points), caused mainly by a sharp drop of
interest on housing loans which significantly influence the average interest in this category.
Within the context of the growth of deposits and savings, on the other hand, it is important
to make an analysis of the development of interest rates on deposits in BAM, since 51% of all
deposits is found in this category. As interest rates on saving deposits in BAM remained at almost
the same level as in 2006 (3.5% on average) with simultaneously accelerated drop of interest rates
on long-term credits in BAM, the drop of interest rate margin of the banking sector continued in
2007H1. Thus, we can see that interest rate margin in 2007H1 amounted to 5.8 percentage points,
which is a decrease by 0.6 percentage points as compared to the same period of the previous year.
Given that over the last two years the interest rate margin has been significantly reduced as a key
46
source of profit for the BiH banking sector, and that the sources of credit financing for the banks in
BiH have become more expensive in foreign markets due to an increase in interest rates of ECB and
the growth of Euribor, the trend of declining interest rates in BiH could slow down in the coming
period.
Graph 18: Average annual interest rates in BiH banking sector (in %)
Source: Central Bank of BiH
Growth of deposits in the BiH banking sector
•
The first half of 2007 recorded an expansion in the growth of deposits in the BiH banking
sector as a consequence of the inflow of proceeds from Telekom of RS.
After 2006, deposits in the banking sector continued their rapid growth in the first half of
2007 as well, which ended by a one-time “jump” in June 2007. Consequently, near the end of
2007H1, total deposits of all institutional sectors in the BiH banking sector reached not less than
11.2 billion BAM, which was an increase by fantastic 3.5 billion BAM or 46% as compared to the
same period of the previous year.
The growth of deposits in 2007H1 was mostly influenced by, first of all, one-time expansion
of deposits of the general government registered in June 2007, caused by the inflow of proceeds
from the privatisation of Telekom of RS into the bank accounts of the RS Government, but also by
the rapid growth of private enterprises and households deposits in 2007H1.
Household deposits continued to be the most dominant category of total deposits with a
share of 41%, but their growth dynamics remained in line with the one recorded in the previous
year, by which they contributed with 13 percentage points to total deposit growth (Graph 19). Near
the end of 2007H1, household deposits amounted to 4.6 billion BAM, which was an increase by 986
million BAM or 27% as compared to the same period of the previous year. The high growth of
household deposits can be explained by improved macroeconomic conditions conducive to growth
of savings, which was expressed as rapid growth of salaries by 10% at the level of BiH, with a low
inflation and a steady trend of employment growth. The deposit growth in this sector was certainly
influenced by growing confidence in the banking sector, expressed as faster growth of household
saving deposits as compared to sight deposits (55% vs. 28%).
Graph 19: Structure and growth of deposits in BiH banking sector
47
Source: Central Bank of BiH
In 2007H1, however, there was a significant decrease in the share of the household
category in total deposits by fully 7 percentage points, which mostly happened on the account of an
unbelievable expansion of the general government deposits. At the end of 2007H1, this category of
deposits became second most important category of total deposits with a 26% share, which was an
increase of share by not less than 10 percentage points as compared to the previous year.
Consequently, general government deposits reached an amount of not less than 2.9 billion BAM in
2007H1, which was an increase by 1.6 billion BAM or 127% as compared to the same period of the
previous year. Of the amount generated as an increase in general government deposits, 1.2 billion
BAM or 75% was generated solely by the inflow of proceeds from the privatisation of Telekom of RS
which took place in June 2007.
Although the growth of the general government deposits was most significantly influenced
by the one-time growth of deposit of the RS Government in 2007H1, recorded was also a trend of
accelerated growth of deposits of other non-central levels of government (cantons, funds,
municipalities), deriving from the high growth of income in 2007H1 at all government levels, as a
consequence of the rapid growth of VAT income.
2007H1 recorded a big expansion of private companies deposits in the BiH banking sector.
Near the end of 2007H1, private companies deposits amounted to 1.8 billion BAM, which was an
increase by 577 million BAM or 49% as compared to the same period of the previous year. The
expansion of private companies deposits was caused primarily by an accelerated growth of deposits
at sight (47% y/y), which was an encouraging trend, given that it is one of indicators that the grey
economy is declining. In 2007H1, an expansion of saving deposits was also registered (52% y/y),
which was an acceleration of the growth of this deposit category by not less than 27 percentage
points as compared to the same period of the previous year.
As a consequence of the inflow of proceeds from the privatisation of Telekom RS into the
BiH banking sector, there was a significant change in financial flows, given that it was for the first
time that the BiH economy realised net savings36, in other words, that deposits of all institutional
sectors exceeded credits by 5 percentage points or by 582 million BAM near the end of 2007H1 (see
Graph 20). However, this change was realised primarily because of the rising savings of the general
government sector (which by then was also the only sector realising net savings), while, after the
stabilisation in 2006, the private sector continued the trend of “deepening” the difference between
36
Net savings of a sector – is calculated as a difference between deposit and credit of a sector in the banking
sector. This is a indicator of saving growth in the BiH economy, registered through financial flows. To get a
complete picture of saving, it is necessary to include flows registered through fiscal balance, and balance of
external payments.
48
monies borrowed and monies saved in the first half of 2007, which was a clear indicator of
deterioration of the current account deficit in 2007.
Graf 20: Analysis of net savings by sector in BiH
Source: Central Bank of BiH
49
Capital market
As of 31 June 2007, total market capitalisation37 of Sarajevo and Banja Luka Stock
Exchanges (SASE and BLSE) amounted to 26.8 billion BAM, which was an increase of 153.9% as
compared to the same period of 2006, or 39% as compared to the end of 2006. Growth of market
capitalisation of the BiH stock exchanges was much lower than in the same period of the previous
year. The slow growth of capitalisation mostly resulted from the decrease in share prices, rather
than in reduction of the number of total shares that were subject of trade. It is expected that issuing
of shares based on new instruments (such as government bonds) or an increase in a share price as
the continuation of the privatisation of remaining state-owned companies would be a favourable
factor providing for a further source of exchange and capitalisation growth in BiH.
Graph 21: Total market capitalisation in BiH
Ukupna tržišna kapitalizacija u BiH
40.000.000.000,00
30.000.000.000,00
SASE
20.000.000.000,00
BLSE
10.000.000.000,00
0,00
jan.06
dec.06
feb.07
apr.07
jun.07
Source: SASE and BLSE
Indices
Indices of investment funds of Sarajevo and Banja Luka Stock Exchanges (BIFX and FIRS) 38
recorded a moderate growth trend (BIFX 44.5% and FIRS 49.1%). Values of BIFX and FIRS recorded
an increase in the first quarter, to start then a downward trend from mid-April 2007.
Value of BIFX was 7,447.28 points as of 31 June 2007. This was a drop by 20.3% as
compared to the end of 2007Q1. An absolute change was 2,292.56 index points, which was an
increase by 44.5% as compared to the end of 2006.
Value of FIRS was 9025.11 points and, as compared to Q1, recorded a drop of 19.40%. An
absolute change was 2.971.76 index points, or growth of 49.09% as compared to the end of the
previous year.
Comparing the values of these indices to the same period of the previous year (BIRS
3,515.13 points and FIRS 2,557.51 points), an index growth of 111.86% and 252.89% respectively
can be established.
37
Capitalisation – a sum of products of stock prices and stock volumes that were subject of trade in stock
exchanges.
38
The indices of both stock exchanges were calculated based on the average stock price of 11 top investment
funds in case of Sarajevo Stock Exchange (BIFX) i 13 investment funds of Banja Luka Stock Exchange
(FIRS).
50
Graph 22: Indices of investment funds of Sarajevo and Banja Luka Stock
Exchanges
BIFX
FIRS
14-Jun-07
30-Apr-07
16-Mar-07
2-Feb-07
16-Mar-07
2-Feb-07
15-Dec-06
6-Nov-06
26-Sep-06
16-Aug-06
6-Jul-06
15-May-06
21-Mar-06
31-Jan-06
8-Dec-05
19-Oct-05
30-Aug-05
11-Jul-05
17-May-05
16-Mar-05
5-Jan-05
14000,00
12000,00
10000,00
8000,00
6000,00
4000,00
2000,00
0,00
Source: SASE and BLSE
A completely identical picture of trends in the BIH stock exchanges is shown by two
representative indices of Sarajevo and Banja Luka Stock Exchanges SASX-10 and BIRS, which
represent a trend in stock prices of top companies listed in these two stock exchanges39.
In the period between 31. 12. 2006 and 30. 06. 2007, the value of SASX-10 grew from
2,855.59 to 4,366.67 index points, which was an increase of 52.92%.
In the same period, BIRS recorded growth of 790.47 index points, or an increase of 27.49%,
while ERS-10 recorded growth of 462.61 index points, or 11.77%.
As shown in Graph 23, in the first quarter of 2007, SASX-10 recorded an explosive growth
and exceeded the value of BIRS again. In end-April 2007, SASX-10, BIRS and ERS-10 recorded almost
identical stagnation and a drop in value.
Comparing the values that these indices had at the end of 2007Q1, SASX-10 recorded a
drop of 14.24%, BIRS a drop of 19.20% and ERS-10 a drop of 25.17%.
Graph 23: Indices of top companies in Sarajevo and Banja Luka Stock Exchange (SASX-10 and BIRS) and the
index of enterprises comprising Elektroprivreda RS system (ERS-
39
SASX-10 comprises: JP Elektroprivreda BiH d.d. Sarajevo, BiH-Telecom d.d. Sarajevo, JP Elektroprivreda
HZHB d.d. Mostar, Fabrika duhana Sarajevo d.d. Sarajevo, Energoinvest d.d. Sarajevo, Bosnalijek d.d. Sarajevo,
Sarajevo-Osiguranje d.d. Sarajevo, ABS-Banka d.d. Sarajevo, Hidrogradnja d.d. Sarajevo, Rudnik mrkog uglja
Banovici d.d. Banovici. As of 29. 12. 2006, BIRS comprises: Hidroelektrane na Trebisnjici Trebinje,
Hidroelektrane na Drini Visegrad, Hidroelektrane na Vrbasu M.Grad, R i TE Gacko, R and TE Ugljevik,
Elektrokrajina Banja Luka, Elektro Bijeljina, Elektro Doboj, Elektrodistribucja Pale, Elektrohercegovina Trebinje,
Rafinerija nafte Bosanski Brod, Jelsingrad livnica celika Banja Luka, Kosig Dunav Osiguranje Banja Luka.
51
10)
SASX-10
BIRS
ERS-10
26-Jun-07
25-May-07
23-Apr-07
21-Mar-07
20-Feb-07
18-Jan-07
14-Mar-07
12-Feb-07
10-Jan-07
6-Dec-06
7-Nov-06
10-Oct-06
11-Sep-06
11-Aug-06
13-Jul-06
6-Jun-06
26-Apr-06
20-Mar-06
9-Feb-06
3-Jan-06
7.000,0000
6.000,0000
5.000,0000
4.000,0000
3.000,0000
2.000,0000
1.000,0000
0,0000
Source: SASE and BLSE
Total Turnover
In the first six months of 2007, total turnover on the BiH stock exchanges was 1,359 million
BAM, which was an increase of turnover of 346.65% as compared to the same period of the
previous year, or 30.32% as compared to the end of 2006.
Turnover on Sarajevo Stock Exchange was 928,044,690.00 BAM, which was 68,27% of total
turnover realised on the BiH stock exchanges. Comparing the values with the same period of the
previous year, SASE recorded an increase in turnover of 418.12%, or 41.75% of an increase in
turnover for the first half of 2007.
Graph 24: Total turnover in the BiH securities market by the end of first half of 2007
SASE
BLSE
Ja
nFe 06
bM 06
ar
Ap 06
r
M -06
ay
Ju -06
n0
Ju 6
lAu 0 6
gSe 06
p0
O 6
ct
N -06
ov
D 06
ec
Ja 0 6
nFe 07
bM 07
ar
Ap 07
r-0
M 7
ay
Ju -07
n07
400.000.000
350.000.000
300.000.000
250.000.000
200.000.000
150.000.000
100.000.000
50.000.000
0
Source: SASE and BLSE
SASE records the biggest growth mostly in a free market through a trade in shares of top companies
present in that market. Thus, the top trading shares were shares of: ABS bank (7.6% of total
turnover), Fabrika duhana Sarajevo (6.13% of total turnover), Energoinvest dd Sarajevo (4.81% of
total turnover), BiH Telekom (4.52% of total turnover), Hidrogradnja d.d. Sarajevo (4% of total
turnover), JP Elektroprivreda BiH dd Sarajevo (3.56% of total turnover), Energopetrol dd Sarajevo
(2.7%), Sipad Komerc dd Sarajevo (2.66%), Vranica dd Sarajevo (2.27%), JP Elektroprivreda HZHB
52
Mostar (2.1% of total turnover). A total share of these ten companies in total volume was not less
than 40.34%.
Turnover on Banja Luka Stock Exchange was 431,393,409.95 BAM, which, as compared to the
first half of 2006, was an increase of 244.43%, or an increase of 11.05% as compared to the end of
2006.
Trade in shares of representative companies (included in BIRS index) significantly
participated in the turnover, with a 41.01% share in total turnover on BLSE. Those companies and
their individual share in the total turnover were as follows: Telekom Srpske AD Banja Luka (8.67%
of total turnover), Rafinerija nafte AD Bosanski Brod (9.87%), Birac AD Zvornik (3.30%), RITE Gacko
AD Gacko (4.03%), Zeljeznice RS AD Doboj (5.50%), Rafinerija ulja Modrica (3.34%), Hidroelektrane
na Trebisnjici AD Trebinje (2.74%), Elektrokrajina AD Banja Luka (2.50%), RITE Ugljevik AD Ugljevik
(2.30%), Hidroelektrane na Drini AD Visegrad (1.83%), Elektrobijeljina AD Bijeljina (1.73%), Kosig
Dunav osiguranje AD Banja Luka (1.62%), Elektrodoboj AD Doboj (1.03%), Elektrodistribucija AD Pale
(1%).
4. FOREIGN TRADE
A total volume of the BiH trade in goods with the world has recorded a steady upward
trend which at the end of the first half of 2007 amounted to 9.3 billion BAM, a 25% increase
compared to the same period of the previous year. Almost two thirds of the amount are imports
(6,443 million BAM) and only one third of the exchange are exports from BiH (2.9 billion BAM).
The foreign trade volume is expected to continue to grow, as well as increased opening of
the economy due to the growth of activities of domestic economic agents, both in terms of the
demand for equipment and semi-products and the offer by BiH exporters who have shown good
results but also plans for future. The increase of the trade volume will benefit from (and will also be
significantly facilitated by) the entry into force of the Central European Free Trade Agreement –
CEFTA, which substitutes but also supplements existing agreements on free trade with countries in
the region. The agreement concerned has been signed and ratified in Albania, Montenegro, Croatia,
Macedonia, Moldavia and Kosovo, and ratification by the respective parliaments is soon to be
expected by Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia as well.
Table 8: Main indicators of the BiH foreign trade
in million BAM
Imports of goods
Exports of goods
Trade balance
Total trade
in % GDP
Change in %:
Imports of goods
Exports of goods
Trade balance
Total trade
Coverage of imports by
exports
2003
2,428
-8,365
-5,937
10,793
81%
2004
3,013
-9,423
-6,410
12,436
85%
2005
3,783
-11,180
-7,397
14,963
95%
2006
5,164
-11,389
-6,225
16,553
94%
2006 H1
2,417
-5,002
-2,585
7,419
n.a.
2007 H1
2,865
-6,443
-3,578
9,308
n.a.
16%
4%
0%
6%
24%
13%
8%
15%
26%
19%
15%
20%
37%
2%
-16%
11%
38%
3%
-16%
12%
19%
29%
38%
25%
45%
48%
44%
29%
32%
34%
Source: Agency for Statistics of BiH
53
Unlike exports which have traditionally recorded hight rates of growth (in 2007H1, they
grew at an annual rate of only 19%40), the value of imports has also increased and for the first time
the rate of import growth has been higher than the export rate (29%). Yet, the deficit has grown
most (38%), which, after significant decreases in 2006, has reached a record-high semi-annual value
of 3.6 billion BAM.
Due to the above mentioned, the coefficient of the coverage of imports by exports has
derogated by 4 percentage points as compared to 2006H1 and at the end of 2007H1 it amounted to
not more than 44%.
Before proceeding with further analyses and comparison with previous years, what should
be mentioned is the impact of the introduction of VAT on 1 January 2006 which significantly
changed the picture and usual behaviour of economic agents and exporters in the period prior to
and following its entry into force. This has made a thorough analysis based on the comparison with
the previous year, and even with the last quarter of 2005, rather difficult.
A decline in the deficit compared to the previous year can partly be explained by peculiar
behaviour of businessmen in the period around the introduction of VAT, where in the quarter
preceding the entry into force of the new taxation method (2005Q4) economic agents purchased
quantities of goods larger than they needed in order „to avoid uncertainty concerning the payment
at an increased tax rate“. This caused that a significant number of the imports of the first quarter of
2006 was brought forward to the last quarter of 2005, which „distorted“ the whole picture. Taking
also into consideration the exporters who moved their transactions to 2006Q1 (in order to take an
advantage of the VAT return), it is difficult to compare this year with the previous one41.
An increase in the value of imports has been contributed by an increased demand for
energy products (oil, gas, and an increased import of electricity caused by the drought), then for
equipment and machines, but also for inputs for basic metals processing (iron and steel, and
aluminium) where an increase of import prices was recorded.
Graph 25: Quarterly values of imports, exports and trade deficit in BiH (in BAM)
Source: Central Bank of BiH
As far as nominal values are considered, it is interesting to mention that the second quarter
of 2007 recorded the biggest values of both imports and exports. The largest deficit was, however,
recorded in the quarter preceding the introduction of VAT (2005Q4).
40
The same annual growth was recorded in 2004H1 (19%), while other halfs recorded considerably higher
rates of growth (24-38%).
41
For example, only imports in 2007Q1, as compared to 2006Q1, recorded an increase of 40%, to immediately
stabilise to mere 20% as soon as in the second quarter.
54
In accordance with the above presented facts is Graph 26, which shows annual rates of the
growth of imports and exports, where by the end of 2006 there was a clear example of significantly
higher rates of imports with stagnation of imports in 2006, while as early as the beginning of 2007,
for the first time the situation reversed (higher rates of growth of imports as compared to exports).
42
Graph 26: Growth rate of exports and imports in BiH (in %)
Source: Central Bank of BiH
Having looked at the regional comparison of certain foreign trade indicators for 2007H1, we
can see that BiH has somewhat a smaller coverage of imports by exports as compared to
neighbouring countries Croatia and Serbia, but, on the other hand, a much better one as compared
to Albania. The annual growth rate of imports is identical to the one recorded in Macedonia and
Serbia, and only slightly higher than the one in Albania (25%). A better result, concerning the
growth rate of exports, has been achieved by Serbia, Albania and Macedonia (33%, 27% i 51%
respectively), while the Croatian economy exported at a reduced rate (10%).
Graph 27: Regional comparison of annual growth rate of imports and exports in 2007H1, and the
coverage of imports by exports of selected countries
Source: National Agencies for Statistics and Central Banks of Observed Countries
42
The rates are calculated on a cumulative basis from the beginning of each year.
55
Foreign Trade According to Various Product Classifications
Having analyzed the trade structure according to statistical procedures43, we can conclude
that even more than a half of exports (56%) or about 1.5 billion BAM account for exports after inner
processing activities, or so-called LOHN manufacturing, while imports for inner processing only
participated with 17% in the total value of imports (about 1 billion BAM). The remaining imports or
5.3 billion BAM were regular imports for investments, distribution and final consumption.
Considering main industrial groupings by intended use, and in accordance with the above
mentioned, intermediary goods or semi-products were the top trading items, participating in
exports with 57%, but also in imports with 37% (an annual growth of 36%). Imports of capital
products as well as non-durable consumer goods had also a large share (20% each in the total
imports), while exports of the same were 11% and 17% respectively. The largest annual increase in
both imports (52%) and exports (49%) was recorded in the category of capital goods.
Graph 28: Share of main product categories in total exports of BiH
Source: Central Bank of BiH
Generally speaking, the growth of exports was caused by an increased demand by the most
significant foreign partners where considerable growth of their GDP has been noted.44
According to the Standard International Trade Classification, annual growth rates of
exports recorded in 2007H1 ranged between 19% (food processing) to 98% (coke, stone,
whitewash, cement) in all categories, except for some chemical products (where a decline in
exports of 27% and a negative contribution to the growth was recorded). A decline in exports was
also noted in products of mineral origin (18%). More specifically, it was mainly a consequence of the
decline in the export of electricity which, due to the drought, recorded a significant decrease in
production as well.
43
Statistical procedures are obtained by combining previous and requested customs produceres. See the
methodology of the Agency for Stastics of BiH.
44
Euro zone 2007Q1, 3.1, Q2 2.5%; EU 27 in 2007H1 2.8% of annual growth. Serbia Q1 8.7;
56
Unlike imports, EXPORTS were much more concentrated, since a share of 43% in the total
exports in the first half of 2007 was achieved by two categories only – basic metals and machines
and equipment.
Basic metals only account for one third of exports, while their contribution to the growth of
exports was as high as 8 percentage points (of 19%). The growth of the exports value is justified not
only by an increase in production and exports in terms of quantity, but also by an increase in export
prices, which were partly caused by the increase in prices of import inputs. The very good coverage
of imports with exports as well as the surplus which has been traditional is somewhat decreased as
compared to the previous year due to the above mentioned increase in the value of the import
inputs.
The first most significant metal in this group is aluminum with a 12% share in total exports
and a steady annual growth of its production and export. The leading exporter of this kind is
„Aluminij“ of Mostar which processes imported alumina and exports aluminum logs and ingots.
The most significant growth of the category of basic metals of iron and steel has been
suppressed by increasing growth of articles of iron and steel (60%). The most important
representative of this category of metals is „BiH Steel“ steelworks of Zenica which imports old iron
and exports raw iron beams, products of a low processing level, reinforcing bars and wire.
Products in the category of machines, tools and equipment, with an annual growth of
exports of 13% and a share in total exports of 20% represent a significant domain of the BiH
industry which has recorded a steady growth of production and use of resources such as metals,
and qualified and cheap labor force. (Famous are VW Sarajevo, „TMD“ Gradačac, „Kapis“
Tomislavgrad, „Jajce Alloy Wheels“ of Jajca, „FEAL“ of Siroki Brijeg, „UNICO filter“ Tesanj and
others).
Another competitive product of the BiH industry which has traditionally generated a surplus
in the trade with the world is wood and wood products, with a share of 9% in total exports and an
annual growth of 37% in 2007H1. In addition to logs and round timber, the export of furniture and
wood products of a higher processing level is growing (which at the moment account for a half of
the export of this category). The largest export furniture factory is „Standard“, Sarajevo.
Products of chemical industry (after recorded decline in exports) have been pushed down
from the fifth place of the top export categories by the category of footwear and footwear parts.
The footwear manufacture has recorded an increased growth and a surplus, and in this category a
majority of products is intended for export (21%) and known buyers (processing jobs). Main
exporters are: „Sportex“, Banja Luka, „Sanono“, Derventa and „Fortuna“, Gracanica which has
recorded an improving export performance.
Graph 29: Share of main products categories in total imports of BiH
Source: Central Bank of BiH
57
The increase in IMPORTS in the previous period was a result of the increased value of
imports of basic metals (inputs for processing and export) and of the growth of the demand for
equipment and machines. While the import of necessary basic metals had a price-related impact
(quantities did not change but import prices did), the growth of the equipment import (38%)
suggests an investment cycle in the country and the need to build and improve production
capacities and the quality of new technologies.
More than a half of a million BAM was spent on the oil import (similar to 2006H1). It is
important to note that in the reporting period the price of oil even dropped by 9%, while the
imported quantity increased by about ten percents. An increase in the demand for electricity due to
the drought and a decrease in the production was particularly significant at Elektroprivreda HZHB
(88%). In this situation, the only fact favorable for the BiH economy was that the import prices of
electricity and oil recorded a slight decline as compared to the previous year.
In the category of chemical products, the largest growth of imports was recorded in respect
of drugs, of 20% (which is reflection of the increase in imported quantities, as also in this case the
export prices decreased by 3%). The remaining imports were organic and inorganic compounds,
personal hygiene articles, and
The last category among the top five ones is food processing products with a 9% share and
11% growth. Interestingly, the export grew at a higher rate than the import, but even that was not
enough to have the coverage higher than mere 12%. A favorable example was given by
confectionery, which was exported more by 30%, and imported less by 10%, and diary products
which have recorded increasing rates of the growth of exports. This category recorded an increase
in import prices, and this is the category which affects general consumers most.
The large import of foodgrains of 81% was of a great concern, and it was caused by the
drought. The increase in prices in the world markets caused a significant increase in import prices in
BiH as well (50%).
Table 9: Top 10 BiH exporters and importers in 2007H1
EXPORTERS
IMPORTERS
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
" ALUMINIJ " d.d. Mostar
" ALUMINIJ " d.d. Mostar
"BHSC" D.O.O. Zenica
"BHSC" D.O.O. Zenica
VOLKSWAGEN d.o.o. Sarajevo
VOLKSWAGEN d.o.o. Sarajevo
PREVENT CUTTING, d.o.o. Visoko
JP "EP HZ Herceg-Bosne" d.d. Mostar
"GLOBAL ISPAT KOKSNA
INDUSTRIJA" d.o.o. Lukavac
"ENERGOINVEST" D.D. Sarajevo
"TMD Ai" d.o.o. Gradacac
"GLOBAL ISPAT KOKSNA
INDUSTRIJA" d.o.o. Lukavac
„BALKAL“, d.o.o. Banja Luka
DOO "NOVI RUDNICI LUBIJA"
Prijedor
"BORAC" EXPORT-IMPORT D.D
Travnik
JP ELEKTROPRIVREDA BIH D.D.
Sarajevo
"HOLDINA" d.o.o. Sarajevo
"TMD Ai" d.o.o. Gradacac
"HIFA-OIL", D.O.O. Tesanj
"NATRON-HAYAT" D.O.O. Maglaj
Source: Indirect Taxation Administration of BiH
Having looked at the largest exporters, but also importers to BiH, one can see that the first
three exporters are at the same time the largest importers. This supports the above mentioned
examples and the data that more than a half of the exports is exports based on imported
components.
The fact that the first ten exporters account for 35% exports, and that the exports by
category of products is also heavily concentrated suggests a high level of vulnerability of the
58
economy which relies only on few products and companies. Similar to the categories of products,
imports by companies is more distributed, so the first ten account only for 15% of imports.
Having looked at their trade exchange in 2007H1 and comparing it with the 2006H1, one
can notice the growth of exports by a majority of exporters („BHS Zenica“ 28%. „Prevent Cutting“
37%, and „Global Ispaat koksna industrija“ Lukavac as high as 81%).
Company „Balkal“ of Banja Luka which does exports for the alumna factory „Birac“ of
Zvornik has recorded a decline in exports by a significant 56%, while VW of Sarajevo has reduced its
export activities by 14% (and the import ones by 30%). VW Sarajevo is the first company which has
had an adverse trade balance from among the first ten (It imports parts and cars, and exports
smaller car parts produced in the free trade of Vogosca).
Of the group of major importers, all except for Elektroprivreda HZHB (which imports
missing quantities of electricity), HOLDINA, Sarajevo and HIFA- OIL, Tesanj (importers of oil and
derivatives) are also large exporters.
Foreign Tade Viewed by Counterpart Countries
As in the previous period, the field of the BiH trade with the world remained within a small
number of countries without any major changes and new markets conquered.
Having looked at the groups of countries with which BiH has traded most, the European
Union countries (EU 27) can be singled out, as well as the countries members of the Free Trade
Agreement (FTA).45
Graph 30: Share of EU and FTA countries in BiH exports
Source: Central Bank of BiH
A share of the EU countries in the BiH exports was somewhat lower as compared to the
same period of the previous year, while a share of the countries members of the FTA46 increased by
the same percentage.
45
States signatories to the Free Trade Agreement are : Albania, Croatia, Macedonia, Moldavia, Serbia and
Montenegro and Turke.
46
For an easier comparison new EU state members Bulgaria and Romania were observed in the same group in
2006H1.
59
A half of the exports to EU was to Italy, Germany, Slovenia, Austria and Hungary. While the
exports to Slovenia recorded significant slowdown, the growth of exports to other major EU
partners recorded good performance (growth rates between 13 – 43%).
One third of exports was to Croatia and Serbia and Montenegro, while the remaining 20%
was to other countries, the most important of which were the USA and Switzerland.
Graph 31: Share of EU and FTA countries in BiH imports
Source: Central Bank of BiH
Similar to exports, majority imports were also from the above mentioned countries. Unlike
with exports, imports were less market concentrated, since in 2007H1 they recorded as high as 19%
of imports from other countries which do not belong to the EU 27 or FTA countries. A share of the
EU countries in total BiH imports decreased, by 6 percentage points, and the one of the FTA
countries by 1 percentage point. Expressed in percentages, 34% of imports from the EU come from
Germany, Italy, Slovenia, Austria and Hungary; while 26% from Croatia and Serbia and Montenegro
(which belong to the FTA group). A deficit with the EU increased by 9%, and the one with the FTA
countries by 28%. The largest contribution to the increase in the deficit was made by Croatia, Serbia
and Montenegro (with 14%, 11% and 11% shares in the total deficit, respectively). The largest
increase in the deficit in percentages was observed with respect to other countries where the
increase in imports from the USA was particularly pronounced.
Graph 32: BiH deficit by groups of countries in 2007H1
Source: Central Bank of BiH
Having looked at individual countries, major BiH trade partners, Croatia stands out with
somewhat above 1.5 billion BAM of total trade. A share of Croatia in the total deficit is 14%, with an
60
annual increase of 27% (in 2007H1, the deficit with Croatia was almost half a billion BAM). From BiH
to Croatia mostly metals are exported, and food and energy products imported.
The second major partner is Germany (with a 1.15 billion BAM total trade) from which
machines and equipment are mostly exported, and metals imported.
Traditionally for BiH, the third trade partner had been the former union of Serbia and
Montenegro, where statistics have only started to register them as separate countries since 13
February 2007. Mostly food is imported from Serbia and energy and metal industry products are
exported to Serbia.
There are following priorities by the end of the year:
To ratify the CEFTA Agreement by the BiH Parliamentary Assembly, to create conditions for a
free access to about 50 million of consumers, and to benefit from the use or recognition of
the diagonal cumulation –rules of origin of goods which the signatory countries will have;
To take a better advantage of the benefits under the preferential status approved by the EU;
To strengthen the control of imports at the borders and improve its statistical coverage and
make more accurate recording of both imports and exports.
BiH Balance of Payment
The GDP current account, after its deterioration in 2005 (when it amounted to 19.8% of
GDP) significantly improved in 2006, reaching only 10.7% of GDP. The main cause of the high
current account deficit was a balance of goods, which had recorded (with an exception of 2006) a
growing deficit year by year. Judging by the foreign trade performance in the first half of 2007, by
the end of the year new deterioration of the current account deficit can be expected, which could
reach 14% of GDP.
Observing the trends by quarters, a trend of deterioration of the current account balance
can be clearly seen as we near the end of the year. The first quarter of 2007 recorded, as expected,
higher deficits as compared to 2006Q1, while the second quarter was above all expectations as it
recorded an annual increase in the current account deficit by 35%. The total current account
balance in the first half of 2007 deteriorated by 61%, reaching the deficit of 1,285 million BAM. As
already mentioned, the deficit was mainly caused by the adverse balance of foreign trade in goods
(For details see the previous chapter).
A favorable balance of trade in services continues to encourage by growing year by year,
and at the end of 2007H1, it records the growth of 558 million BAM (an increase of 18% y/y).
Exports of services grew at a rate of 14% and of imports, at 7%. The largest share in the services
rendered was recorded by travels (51%), with the annual growth of 8%, while other services
recorded the biggest growth with respect of construction services (61%), insurance (22%) and
business services (14%). On the import side, transport services were spent on most (47%), and
travels and other services (communication and finances) recorded 10 – 13% of spending, without
major changes as compared to the same period of the previous year.
Next item and a significant source of financing of the current account deficit consist of
income, which after recording lower and lower values in the previous quarters, in 2007H1 recorded
a considerable increase of 39% thanks to the increase in revenues and decrease in expenditures. (In
2007H1, the balance of income was 533 million BAM). The growth of revenues was mostly caused
by the increase in the values of compensations for persons employed abroad (or with foreign
companies in BiH), but also by a considerable increase in income from other investments made by
monetary authorities and commercial banks having placed their funds abroad.
In addition to growing significance of the balance of services and income in the balance of
payments, current transfers still play a major role in the cash flow into BiH. While transactions of
this kind to the government sector have been decreasing year by year, the registered value of the
61
cash flow that BiH citizens or relatives abroad transferred to BiH has been on the increase, and in
2007H1, it reached the level of about 1.5 billion BAM. This includes pensions which record a slight
increase.
There were no major changes to the capital account and we can recall that by 2002, capital
transfers to the non-governmental sector took priority over the previous capital transfers to the
government sector (1/3 of the total capital transfers). Another important balance of the financial
account improved (by 99%) thanks to a substantial cash inflow through foreign direct investments
(1,756 million BAM). Based on this, the assets that BiH commercial banks had abroad grew by more
than 3 times as compared to the state of assets in 2006H1. With the growth of the assets, the
liabilities also grew, due to new indebtedness created by loans (additional 402 million BAM47) and
new commercial credits (185 million BAM).
Foreign reserves record a steady increase, but without major changes as compared to
2006H1, while a still significant amount of net errors and omissions (189 million BAM) suggest
statistical deviations and difficulties in measuring balance of payments transactions.
47
More indebtedness was incurred by the government sectors – 330.6 million BAM of the total amount of the
new debt.
62
5. FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT
Registered net inflow of foreign direct investment into Bosnia and Herzegovina in the
period January-June 2007 was record-high 1.49 billion BAM48, and gross inflow of FDI in the same
period was 1.52 billion BAM. The second quarter of 2007 recorded far and away the largest inflow
of FDI since FDI started to be recorded in BiH (May 2004) and it amounted to 1.3 billion BAM (see
Graph 33). It should be noted that in the first half of 2007, FDI already exceeded the total amount of
the then all-time high in 2004, when 1.2 billion of FDI was attracted.
Graph 33: FDI inflow in BiH, by quarter, in million BAM
49
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
K2 2007
K1 2007
K4 2006
K3 2006
K2 2006
K1 2006
K4 2005
K3 2005
K2 2005
K1 2005
K4 2004
K3 2004
K2 2004
K1 2004
0
Source: Ministry of Foreign Trade and Economic Relations
The main reason for this sudden jump in the FDI inflow in the first half of 2007 was the
privatization of Telekom RS by Telekom Serbia, which accounts for 83.1% of total FDI in that period.
Including the injection of additional capital through the sale of state capital in company
Energopetrol, Sarajevo, a share of FDI through privatization in the total registered (net) inflow for
2007H1 was 90%. The remaining FDI concerned investments through the establishment of new
companies50 (5.4%), while the remaining 4.6% was a result of investments of additional capital and
reinvestments made by existing investors.
Clearly, thanks to the above mentioned privatization of RS Telekom, Serbia was the biggest
investor in BiH for the period January – June 2007, with 1.28 billion BAM of foreign direct
investment51, and it also reached the first place of the countries of origin of FDI for the entire
reporting period52 (see Graph 34). Croatia remained one of the leading investing countries, with 56
48
It takes into account the outflows of foreign capital as a result of withdrawal of foreign investment or transfer
of capital to BiH business agents and reduction of capital due to the loss coverage.
49
Quarterly FDI inflows for 2005, 2006 and 2007 are gross inflows, while because of the lack of the same data
for 2004, registered (net) inflows are used.
50
This category, according to the data provided by the MOFTER, includes greenfield investments, joint
ventures and reinvestments by foreign partners in existing companies.
51
Analyses of foreign direct investment by sector and investing countries in the first half of 2006 in this
Chapter are based on gross FDI inflow.
52
Major investing countries, in the period May 1994 – 30 June 2007 are Serbia (27.5%), Croatia (12.7%),
Austria (11.6), Slovenia (9.8%), Switzerland (9.0%), Lithuania (8.8%), Germany (5.0%) and Italy (2.4%).
63
million BAM, and it also recorded the highest number of investments – 25. The Cayman Islands
occupy the third place thanks to a single investment in Banjalucka pivara, Banja Luka.
53
Graph 34: Major FDI Source Countries in 2007H1
(the number of investment projects in brackets)
Austria (13)
1%
Russia (1)
1%
Other (32)
5%
Slovenia (19)
2%
The Cayman
Islands (1)
3%
Croatia (25)
4%
Serbia (13)
84%
Source: Ministry of Foreign Trade and Economic Relations
The investment by Telekom Serbia affected the sectoral structure of the foreign direct
investment in BiH in the first half of 2007. Thus the telecommunication sector received the largest
amount of FDI (see Graph 35). However, as before, the industrial sector54 recorded the highest
number of investments (58) amounting to 147.5 million BAM. Trade also attracted a considerable
number of investments – 19, where the investment into Energopetrol, Sarajevo, accounts for 75.9%
of total investment in this sector.
55
Graph 35: FDI by sector in 2007H1
(the number of investment projects in brackets)
53
Gross inflow – more than 100.000 BAM.
Industry includes mining, manufacturing and production of electricity.
55
Gross inflow – more than 100,000 BAM
54
64
Trade (19)
4%
Banking (2)
1%
Other (22)
2%
Industry (58)
10%
Telecommunications
(3)
83%
Source: Ministry of Foreign Trade and Economic Relations
In 2007H1, the following five investments account for 91.2$ of the total gross FDI inflow:
•
•
•
•
•
Telekomunikacije Republike Srpske ad Banja Luka (Serbia / telecommunication) – 1.26
billion KM
Energopetrol dd Sarajevo (Croatia and Hungary / trade) – 46 million BAM
AD Banjalučka pivara Banja Luka (the Cayman Islands / food production) – 43.2 million BAM
IEFK Banka AD Banja Luka (Russia / banking) – 20 million BAM
Jelšingrad fabrika mašina i dizalica AD Prnjavor (Croatia / machines and equipment) – 13.4
million BAM
The structure of FDI inflow within the industrial sector, the food-processing sub-sector
attracted the largest amount of 63.6 million BAM, thus retaining the leading position that it had in
2006 as well (see graph 36). The sub-sector of machines and equipment recorded the largest
number of investments (18) of the value of 26.5 million BAM. Metal processing (basic metals and
articles thereof) also retained substantial inflows of FDI amounting to 22.4 million BAM (including
both sub-sectors).
56
Graph 36: FDI inflow in the industry in 2007H1
(the number of investment projects in brackets)
56
Gross inflow – more than 100,000 BAM
65
Construction
(4)
4%
Other (14)
14%
Food production
(8)
43%
Rubber and plastics
(4)
6%
Metal products
(8)
7%
Machines and
equipment (18)
18%
Basic metals (2)
8%
Source: Ministry of Foreign Trade and Economic Relations
Privatization and FDI
As already discussed, the privatization in the first half of 2007 was a major generator of FDI
inflow, because of the record-high results in the Republika Srpska (see Table 10).
Table 10: Privatization results in 2007H1
2005
No of
companies
2006
Price paid
I-VI 2007
No of
companies
Price paid
No of
companies
Price paid
Federation of
BiH
3
992,001
0
0
0
0
Republika
Srpska
3
600,000
6
25,587,049
857
1,264,966,180
Brcko District
1
200
0
0
1
601,00058
Total
7
1,592,201
6
25,587,049
9
1,265,567,180
Source: The Privatization Agency of FBiH, The Privatization Directorate of RS and The Privatization Office of
the Brcko District
57
58
Industrija alata Trebinje was sold under a single privatisation contract while it consists of 7 companies.
This is in fact a joint investment by Slovenian investor Beliv Ljubljana and domestic Žarateks Brčko.
66
In the RS, the privatization of Telekom RS managed to attract the largest ever amount of FDI
in one privatization project in BiH. At the same time, in 2007H1, total cash proceeds generated in
the privatization process in this Entity also increased considerably (by 1.27 billion BAM), given that,
by the end of 2006, 54.7 million BAM were generated. It should be noted that since 30 June 2007,
the authorized seller of state capital in the Republika Srpska, which is included in the portfolio of the
Share Fund of RS (Akcijski fond Republike Srpske), will be Investiciono-razvojna banka RS. In this year,
with respect to the large privatization projects, expectations are high concerning the privatization of
Oil Refinery Brod (including Oil Refinery Modrica and Petrol).
Since 2005, the Federation of BiH has not yet made any serious progress in the privatization
process. In 2007H1, not a single enterprise was privatized59, but only some assets of some
enterprises were sold, which generated proceeds in cash of 12 million BAM. By the end of the year,
privatization of some large companies is announced, the most significant company being Aluminij
Mostar.
In 2006H1, the Brcko District privatized one company, ODP Uzor, but this privatization
reached the largest cash proceeds ever under one contract, amounting to 601,000 BAM, which also
exceeds the total cash inflow by the end of 2006, of 491,405 BAM.
59
Excluding the injection of additional capital by the sale of the state capital in company Energopetrol Sarajevo
by INA/MOL.
67
6. BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT
Regulatory Reform
The quality of regulatory acts of a country directly influences inflow of FDI. Improving a
regulatory framework and increasing its transparency will facilitate doing business, entering the
market by business agents will encourage entrepreneurship, facilitate an access to the market and
stimulate the growth of economy.
Research done in the CEE region has shown that the quality of legislation determines FDI
more strongly than the most used criteria such as macroeconomic stability, GDP or labor costs.
In BiH, the following internationally funded programs are being implemented designed to
streamline business operations:
•
•
•
USAID SPIRA Project (Streamlining Permits and Inspection Regime Activity „SPIRA“
Project);
World Bank BAC Project (Business/Environment Adjustment Credit „BAC“ Project);
DFID UK Project (UK Department for International Development „DFID“Reform of
Business Registration Project).
In Bosnia and Herzegovina, legislation governing business is mainly enacted at the Entity
level. The Republika Srpska has achieved major progress in this area through its „Regulatory
Guillotine“ process, aimed at streamlining conditions for doing business, removing all obstacles in
order to speed up the start of business by economic agents, with a special focus on the support for
small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs).
In 2006, the Republika Srpska started the Program entitled „Regulatory Guillotine“ which
aims at identifying business regulations and procedures representing obstacles to doing business in
order to either remove or modify them.
Out of 262 procedures, the Regulatory Reform Council, established to implement the
program, proposed 121 for modification, 44 for deletion and retained 97 procedures. The process
of amendment and deletion of identified formalities is in progress.
On 1 March 2007, the RS Government presented its Web site which contains the Registry of
Procedures and Approvals and Inspection Procedures. The Registry includes a list of all formalities
that business agents must fulfill in doing their business. The Registry also includes all inspection
procedures and subjects of control falling within the competence of the RS inspection authorities.
In January 2007, in Sarajevo, the Federation of BiH Government, together with the World
Bank, signed an agreement on the partial start of the „Regulatory Guillotine“, in the field of
inspection. The Federation Administration for Inspection Issues started to operate on 1 January
2007 (including 10 inspections)60. i
In April – May 2007, studies were made in order to assess the level of success of the
implementation of the business reforms conducted by BiH authorities in the fields of inspection and
business registration, bankruptcy, foreign investment promotion, movable pledges, and some other
fields. The regulatory and institutional reforms and the establishment of Entity inspectorates in
particular considerably improved tax, financial, market and labor inspections, which already started
researching potential synergies arising out of the consolidated inspections in each Entity. Now
companies in the Federation of BiH are faced with average 10 days of inspection, on an annual
basis, as compared with 24 days in 2004. In RS, inspections need less than 8 days as compared with
34 days in 2004.
60
In RS, such Administration was established in 2006.
68
A new system of business registration in BiH was presented on 14 June 2007. Key benefits
of this system are: registration of an individual legal person should be completed not later than
within five working days from the receipt of the application, a tax identification number is obtained
during the court registration and it is independent of the tax registration, decisions are uniform
throughout BiH, registration process may start with any court competent for business registration
independent of the seat of the business agent, and a lease contract for business premises does not
need to be submitted before the registration, and public information on registered business agents
are available in the electronic form.
Financial Environment
The National Assembly of RS adopted a Draft Law on Leasing. It is expected that the
National Assembly will adopt this Law, which will significantly improve the business environment,
introducing a simplified and cheaper long-term source of business financing as compared to bank
loans. Two types of leasing are provided for, operational and financial ones, which eliminates
pledged loans. This will be particularly beneficial for small enterprises and entrepreneurs who do
not have a sufficient capital to purchase machines and equipment or real properties to secure
credits or loans.
A Credit Registry of Legal and Physical Entities within the Central Bank of BiH was
established in January 2007 and it allows for a detailed overview of indebtedness and reduced
credit risk in banks.
In February 2007, the RS Government adopted Decision on Debt and Claims Clearance,
Cession and Assuming Debts in Foreign Business Transactions; Decision on Conditions for
Approving Extension of Deadlines for Payment Collection for Goods Exported and Services
Rendered and Extension of Deadlines for Imports of Goods and Services Paid in Advance; Decision
on the Method and Conditions for Payment and Collection in Effective Foreign Money in BAM and
Cash in Making Transactions with Non-residents (Regulatory Guillotine – reduction of deadlines for
issuing approvals to 15 from the previous 30 days after the application's filing).
Support for Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises
(SME)
Small and medium-sized enterprises constitute the backbone of the CEE economies, making
the largest contribution to employment and economic growth and development. In order to
operate successfully and conduct a policy conducive to SME operation, it is necessary to:
• Achieve coordination between the Entities, Ministries at all levels of government;
• Establish a uniform strategy of support for SMEs;
• Establish institutional support for SMEs at the state level.
In the CEE region, only BiH and UNMIK/Kosovo have not yet formed a State-level agency.
Department for Economic Development and Entrepreneurship of the Ministry of Foreign Trade and
Economic Relations (MOFTER) has been formed. This Department is tasked to prepare necessary
legal and organizational framework to start setting up of such agency. The Unit for Support to SMEs
within MOFTER is responsible for coordination at the State level.
In RS, within the Ministry of Economy, Energy and Development, Department for SMEs and
Crafts was established, as well as Agency for Development of SMEs . In the Brcko District, there is
Department for SMEs at the Ministries.
69
In April 2007, the Republika Srpska Government adopted the Proposed Strategy for
Development of Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises (2006 – 2010).
The Agency for Development of Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises in Republika Srpska
started a program of stimulating the creation of clusters in 2007 (allocation of grants – 150,000
BAM).
Every year the Ministry of Crafts and Entrepreneurship prepares the Book of Rules for
Stimulating the Development of Small Businesses based on which the Government adopts a
decision on transfers of grants for projects stimulating SMEs.
Less costly and faster starting of a business
In the World Bank publication „Doing Business for 2007“, Bosnia and Herzegovina is ranked
95 out of 175 ranked countries in the world.
Starting a Business
Procedures (number)
Duration (days)
Costs (% of GNI per capita)
Paid in Min. Capital
(% of GNI per capita)
2004
12
59
51.8
2005
12
54
46.2
2006
12
54
40.9
2007
12
54
37
379.1
65
57.4
52
In comparison with the CEE countries, Bosnia and Herzegovina also ranked last by duration
in days and costs necessary to start a business.
ALB
39
BIH
54
HRV
45
UNK6
23
MKD
18
MNE
24
SRB
18
11
12
10
5
10
15
10
Total costs for
whole process
(USD)
578
903
983
N/A
211
242
335
Total costs of whole
process(% of income
per capita)
22.4
37
12.2
22
7.4
6.6
10.2
No. of days to
complete whole
process
No. of steps to
complete whole
process
Tax Policy
70
Since 1 January 2007, the Republika Srpska has started to apply the new Law on Corporate
Tax and Law on Income Tax. Salaries of workers receiving a minimum wage as specified by the
general collective agreement will not be taxable, while an annual income in an amount exceeding
four average salaries is taxable at the rate of 15%. The Federation of BIH is also expected to start
the reform of direct taxes (to adopt these two laws). The Law on Corporate Tax provides for a
possibility of reduction of the base if a production company invests in the purchase of equipment
and machines which will be used in the following two years.
On 31 May 2007, the Republika Srpska adopted the Law on Amendments to the Law on
Property Taxes. Since the introduction of VAT, because of the application of the laws enacted
before the change, construction of new buildings has been burdened twice with the payment of
VAT at 17% and the tax on property transfer at 3%. Upon the initiative of construction companies
and the Chamber of Commerce, the RS Government decided to amend the laws and demonstrated
its previously declared readiness to be a partner to the economy.
Credit and Financial Operations
The Credit Registry of Legal and Physical Entities within the Central Bank of BiH, established
in January 2007, provides for a detailed overview of indebtedness and reduction of credit risk in
banks.
RS Investment and Development Bank (Investiciono razvojna banka RS) will place proceeds
from the privatization of Telekom Srpska into the development of small and medium-sized
enterprises, thus promoting a new form of financing of up to a half of the value of company's share
capital, entitled as Public-Private Partnership.
Adoption of the Law on Savings and Loan Cooperatives is still pending in the Republika
Srpska, the goal of which is to improve competitive capacity of businessmen, who would be given
an easy access to less costly capital they need.
The Agency for the Development of SMEs in RS has started a program stimulating the
creation of clusters in 2007 (allocation of grants – 150,000 BAM).
Every year the Ministry of Crafts and Entrepreneurship prepares the Book of Rules for
Stimulating the Development of Small Businesses based on which the Government adopts a
decision on transfers of grants for projects stimulating SMEs.
Investment Promotion
In April 2007, the Foreign Investment Council published a White Paper designed to offer to
BiH authorities a program of priority reforms to address key obstacles to investment, which can be
implemented in the next twelve months.
In April 2007, the Council of Ministers adopted the operational plan of measures for
implementing the Strategy for Attracting and Promoting Foreign Direct Investment in BiH, and
based on that, a Decision to establish a Fund for Supporting Foreign Investors in BiH, in the amount
of 2 million BAM, which will operate as an ad hoc body at the Foreign Investment Promotion
Agency of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Financial resources of this Fund can be used for financing of
investment projects of foreign investors in the production sector, research and development sector,
as well as other projects, with an exception of financing of investment projects in the field of
catering, trade, banking, insurance and leasing.
Trade Policy
71
The RS Law on Trade61 simplifies the procedure and reduces the costs of obtaining licenses
for a trade activity.
In September, the CEFTA agreement is finally expected to be ratified by the BiH
Parliament62. The Agreement should improve existing trade relations, increase competitiveness of
BiH and create conditions for foreign investment and new jobs.
According to data provided by the Association for Quality throughout BiH, which registers
about 30,000 various companies, only about 340 companies possess ISO 9001 system certificate for
quality management. The ISO14000 certificate for environmental protection has been awarded to
only 40 companies, while only 4 companies have OHSAS18001certificate, the occupational safety
and health of employees system.
So far Bosnia and Herzegovina has adopted 12000 international standards, but producers
do not apply them, since there are no regulations which would legally mandate their application. It
is obvious that there is a need to establish an institution in BiH which would award producers
validity certificates and a need to introduce mechanisms at border in order to prohibit imports of
goods lacking basic standards and certificates.
Bankruptcy Proceedings
The RS Government adopted the Draft Law on Bankruptcy Proceedings which, among
other things, introduces a restriction concerning bankruptcy proceedings of the period of one year.
It also provides for stricter requirements, which must be met by a person to be appointed as an
official receiver, and a list of official receivers is defined by the RS Government, at the proposal of
the Minister of Justice. The Draft concerned also provides for a larger scope of protection of rights
of employees at the bankruptcy debtor, since this draft introduces an obligation of the payment of
8 instead of previous 6 salaries to them.
Training
In May 2007, the Euro Info Correspondence Centre within the Foreign Trade Chamber of
BiH, in cooperation with the Ministry of Foreign Trade and Economic Relations of BiH organized a
number of seminars designed to inform and prepare the BiH economy for the implementation of
the CEFTA Agreement. The EIC is also a relevant link for providing information to businessmen in
order to assist them in the process of adjustment to new business conditions in the CEFTA area.
One of the benefits offered by the EIC is their database on business cooperation giving the
opportunity for searching and finding business partners.
In May – June, the Sarajevo Economic Region Development Agency “SERDA” organized a
number of programs and workshops aimed at training young people in the field of marketing,
business planning, creation of business plans, legislation governing the start and conduct of small
and medium-sized enterprises operations.
Implementation of the „CREDO” Project started in June (Competitive Regional Economic
Development Project), in the Northeast Regional Development Association “NERDA” with a view of
improving the business environment for local small and medium-sized enterprises. This project has
been allocated 3.1 million EURO in 34 municipalities covered by „NERDA“, including the Brcko
District.
61
Adopted on 11.01.2007
BiH signed the Central European Free Trade Area Agreement in Buchurest, on 19 December 2006. The
Council of Ministers of BiH adopted a Decision to ratify the Agreement in May 2007.
62
72
Tabela 1: Industrijska proizvodnja u FBiH
period po
indeksu
bazni
period
1-12.2006
1-6.2006
1-6.2007
1.2007
2.2007
3.2007
4.2007
5.2007
6.2007
analogni period prethodne godine
INDUSTRIJA UKUPNO
107,5
106,8
111,9
109,5
113,8
116,6
107,5
113,0
C) VAðENJE RUDA I KAMENA
D) PRERAðIVAČKA INDUSTRIJA
E) PROIZVODNJA I SNADBIJEVANJE ELEKTRIČNOM ENERGIJOM, GASOM I VODOM
VAðENJE RUDA I KAMENA
102,0
106,5
106,2
98,8
95,7
103,9
115,1
116,1
121,2
109,0
106,2
124,5
132,4
130,9
131,9
113,7
119,1
120,5
106,8
108,1
84,1
73,8
86,2
88,0
84,9
90,5
106,4
115,6
118,2
10) Vañenje kamenog i mrkog uglja, lignita i treseta
102,2
105,5
98,6
96,6
90,5
90,0
103,6
115,1
13) Vañenje ruda metala
132,5
143,8
106,6
138,8
123,5
106,8
98,7
91,0
174,6
98,3
108,4
148,3
117,7
129,8
191,6
171,4
124,0
135,7
15) Proizvodnja prehrambenih proizvoda i pića
107,4
106,8
106,0
114,0
106,9
106,3
105,5
100,2
121,4
16) Proizvodnja duhanskih proizvoda
114,1
116,6
99,2
91,5
105,0
100,3
101,5
102,0
100,0
17) Proizvodnja tekstila prediva i tkanina
76,4
75,7
62,8
47,1
55,4
67,7
62,0
91,3
171,0
18) Proizvodnja odjevnih predmeta, dorada i bojenje krzna
85,7
79,1
107,9
82,5
131,1
108,9
112,0
113,9
100,7
110,6
103,7
116,0
136,2
109,7
105,2
120,1
115,2
113,5
96,7
98,3
98,3
136,0
107,4
106,6
81,3
82,2
84,2
119,3
123,1
111,8
106,0
118,1
97,2
126,2
113,7
111,6
22) Izdavačka djelatnost, štampanje i reprodukcija snimanih materijala
91,8
93,3
111,1
168,4
100,2
121,1
81,3
107,1
187,3
23) Proizvodnja koksa i derivata nafte
99,4
59,0
152,3
165,7
154,1
174,7
127,1
147,2
253,4
14) Vañenje ostalih ruda i kamena
PRERAðIVAČKA INDUSTRIJA
19) Proizvodnja kože i predmeta od kože i obuće
20) Prerada i proizvodi od drveta i plute
21) Proizvodnja celuloze, papira i proizvoda od papira
129,7
111,9
187,1
191,8
184,9
225,2
148,9
203,4
135,3
25) Proizvodnja proizvoda od gume i plastike
95,2
86,4
148,5
196,0
149,4
145,6
140,3
135,6
123,0
26) Proizvodnja proizvoda od ostalih minerala
27) Proizvodnja osnovnih metala
106,3
124,8
117,4
163,7
213,0
147,0
93,2
92,7
96,2
114,1
115,0
108,1
116,3
116,8
100,4
108,3
102,5
118,5
28) Proizvodnja metalnih proizvoda osim mašina
114,4
108,0
181,2
219,8
188,3
171,5
168,1
172,2
130,8
29) Proizvodnja ostalih mašina i ureñaja
112,5
107,5
121,4
144,3
110,8
112,9
141,9
106,3
122,7
30) Proizvodnja kancelarijskih i računarskih mašina
78,8
87,4
192,3
305,4
314,2
118,0
161,4
140,1
129,2
31) Proizvodnja drugih elektronskih mašina i aparata
97,1
106,7
121,8
111,8
128,7
95,5
149,5
128,6
98,9
33) Proizvodnja medicinskih, preciznih i optičkih instrumenata
143,6
87,8
118,2
170,7
162,3
149,9
97,0
67,0
38,1
34) Proizvodnja motornih vozila i prikolica
101,9
113,0
156,2
163,4
171,8
133,6
163,1
159,0
109,7
24) Proizvodnja hemikalija i hemijskih proizvoda
35) Proizvodnja ostalih saobraćajnih sredstava
98,6
60,5
58,3
129,4
70,5
36,9
57,3
35,0
79,5
36) Proizvodnja namještaja i sličnih proizvoda
116,6
106,9
145,6
160,2
158,3
189,0
115,8
120,3
133,0
37) Reciklaža
116,7
127,9
117,6
155,0
140,8
104,8
128,8
92,4
95,9
PROIZVODNJA I SNADBIJEVANJE ELEKTRIČNOM ENERGIJOM, GASOM I VODOM
40) Proizvodnja i snadbijevanje el. Energijom, gasom, parom i toplom vodom
41) Skupljanje,pročišćavanje i distribucija vode
110,2
110,9
84,1
73,8
86,2
88,0
84,9
90,5
106,4
87,1
90,8
Source: Office for Statistics of FBiH
73
Tabela 2: Industrijska proizvodnja u RS
period po
indeksu
bazni
period
1-12.2006
1-6.2006
1-6.2007
1.2007
2.2007
3.2007
4.2007
5.2007
6.2007
analogni period prethodne godine
INDUSTRIJA UKUPNO
119,1
110,8
100,9
101,5
106,7
107,7
95,2
96,4
99,0
C) VAðENJE RUDA I KAMENA
D) PRERAðIVAČKA INDUSTRIJA
E) PROIZVODNJA I SNADBIJEVANJE ELEKTRIČNOM ENERGIJOM, GASOM I VODOM
VAðENJE RUDA I KAMENA
120,6
133,3
105,9
81,9
114,0
136,5
84,7
111,8
105,3
121,3
108,6
107,2
110,0
114,3
109,5
106,4
102,5
103,6
109,7
116,6
86,3
90,9
92,1
100,1
72,1
75,6
84,5
10) Vañenje kamenog i mrkog uglja, lignita i treseta
178,0
217,6
102,8
115,7
131,2
113,0
31,7
92,1
90,0
81,2
101,8
87,2
42,2
64,6
105,8
71,5
112,4
106,1
117,2
117,3
190,6
711,2
691,9
408,9
150,5
115,8
108,8
15) Proizvodnja prehrambenih proizvoda i pića
105,9
107,7
100,3
110,8
99,6
104,3
103,9
90,7
97,4
16) Proizvodnja duhanskih proizvoda
103,6
91,6
83,0
83,6
80,0
35,2
77,1
130,2
151,2
231,8
13) Vañenje ruda metala
14) Vañenje ostalih ruda i kamena
PRERAðIVAČKA INDUSTRIJA
53,7
59,2
228,2
207,5
213,8
218,4
411,5
197,5
18) Proizvodnja odjevnih predmeta, dorada i bojenje krzna
123,2
121,2
124,0
159,0
100,0
122,9
141,3
156,6
87,1
19) Proizvodnja kože i predmeta od kože i obuće
111,9
73,9
68,8
65,3
59,0
52,1
53,1
83,6
125,5
20) Prerada i proizvodi od drveta i plute
291,6
235,9
104,0
152,7
124,7
118,0
96,5
92,6
87,7
89,3
84,8
114,2
94,3
96,1
127,9
106,2
132,8
130,2
125,2
122,2
104,1
112,4
123,2
103,8
118,1
108,7
70,2
29,9
23,9
123,5
125,8
104,8
123,2
157,7
110,1
134,1
17) Proizvodnja tekstila prediva i tkanina
21) Proizvodnja celuloze, papira i proizvoda od papira
22) Izdavačka djelatnost, štampanje i reprodukcija snimanih materijala
23) Proizvodnja koksa i derivata nafte
97,1
95,3
92,2
101,8
92,4
95,0
80,4
89,2
97,1
25) Proizvodnja proizvoda od gume i plastike
153,1
97,7
81,5
72,0
76,0
61,7
87,7
94,4
91,3
26) Proizvodnja proizvoda od ostalih minerala
27) Proizvodnja osnovnih metala
118,6
105,0
138,3
284,4
135,2
218,9
202,4
107,3
102,6
128,3
152,4
80,2
74,1
111,2
79,2
74,9
72,4
74,7
28) Proizvodnja metalnih proizvoda osim mašina
121,8
104,3
125,7
123,4
175,8
133,4
102,0
116,5
118,5
24) Proizvodnja hemikalija i hemijskih proizvoda
29) Proizvodnja ostalih mašina i ureñaja
63,3
59,4
123,0
213,9
115,5
71,2
148,8
178,2
130,6
30) Proizvodnja kancelarijskih i računarskih mašina
82,9
109,1
191,7
305,1
80,9
285,6
92,3
171,7
319,0
31) Proizvodnja drugih elektronskih mašina i aparata
84,8
78,8
96,9
217,5
83,0
52,4
58,4
154,8
99,6
32) Proizvodnja radio,TV i komunikacione opreme
23,6
12,3
36,3
14,2
0,0
7,1
33) Proizvodnja medicinskih, preciznih i optičkih instrumenata
93,7
67,3
142,8
205,8
141,7
139,3
151,7
123,6
121,8
34) Proizvodnja motornih vozila i prikolica
106,0
125,4
129,9
106,0
127,1
105,1
74,7
183,0
220,6
35) Proizvodnja ostalih saobraćajnih sredstava
108,6
101,6
118,2
132,8
104,7
101,4
112,4
131,9
125,5
36) Proizvodnja namještaja i sličnih proizvoda
125,3
133,7
147,6
128,8
134,2
140,6
181,6
151,4
149,4
98,4
97,9
175,3
276,8
211,8
324,2
167,1
120,6
135,7
109,7
116,6
86,3
90,9
92,1
100,1
72,1
75,6
84,5
37) Reciklaža
PROIZVODNJA I SNADBIJEVANJE ELEKTRIČNOM ENERGIJOM, GASOM I VODOM
40) Proizvodnja i snadbijevanje el. Energijom, gasom, parom i toplom vodom
100,0
Source: RS Statistics Institute
74
Tabela 3. BDP po sektorima
Proizvodnja
Prijevoz
Turizam
Vrijednost po indeksu
1-12.2006
1-3.2007
bazni period
isti period prethodne godine
107,5
113,4
Industrijska proizvodnja
FBiH
119,1
105,5
RS
117,1
200,2
Grañevinarstvo (vrijednost radova)
FBiH
109,2
180,7
RS
121,4
182,6
Cestovni (prevezeno robe)
FBiH
134,7
202,2
RS
97,9
110,4
Cestovni (prevezeni putnici)
FBiH
98,1
103,7
RS
94,6
77,1
Gradsko - Prigradski Prijevoz (prevezeni putnici)
FBiH
104,6
115,5
RS
97,3
99,3
Željeznički (prevezeno robe)
FBiH
100,4
103,3
RS
123,2
102,6
Željeznički (prevezeni putnici)
FBiH
93,4
97,2
RS
101,1
116,9
Domaći
FBiH
124,5
108,5
RS
112,3
116,9
Strani
FBiH
132,7
123,4
RS
1-6. 2007
1.2007
2.2007
3.2007
4.2007
5.2007
6.2007
111,9
109,5
113,8
116,6
107,5
113,0
118,2
100,9
101,5
106,7
107,7
95,2
96,4
99
137,5
221,1
208,3
183,0
136,3
119,9
118,2
159,3
282,6
97,7
248,7
143,3
150,4
152,8
162,8
Kvart objavlj
Kvart objavlj
Kvart objavlj
Kvart objavlj
Kvart objavlj
Kvart objavlj
151,8
117,3
126,0
154,0
206,0
219,8
182,9
106,8
Kvart objavlj
Kvart objavlj
Kvart objavlj
106,1
148,8
105,5
107,4
77,3
Kvart objavlj
Kvart objavlj
Kvart objavlj
Nije objavljeno Nije objavljeno Nije objavljeno
106,1
109,9
109,1
Nije objavljeno Nije objavljeno Nije objavljeno
109,5
124,8
120,1
106,7
103,0
106,7
103,4
103,3
101,6
100,4
96,3
89,4
111,8
120,4
104,1
93,0
118,6
99,0
87,5
103,0
124,7
104,9
96,3
100,0
107,4
112,9
102,9
105,1
95,0
82,5
113,2
98,4
92,2
92,5
94,4
120,6
89,7
111,1
115,9
129,9
122,0
118,2
118,3
114,4
118,1
97,6
123,4
136,6
117,6
117,9
112,7
91,8
123,1
119,3
112,4
122,9
123,4
135,5
147,3
96,5
138,2
115,1
120,7
Source: Entity statistics institutes
Table 4. Retail trade and catering operations
Value by index
basic period
Retail trade
Catering
current prices
price deflation by retail trade index
current prices
price deflation by retail trade index
current prices
price deflation by retail trade index
current prices
price deflation by retail trade index
FBiH
RS
FBiH
RS
Q1-Q4 2006 Q1- 2007
H1- 2007
same period of the previous year
141.0
124.0
118.1
134.0
122.0
116.4
116.3
126.2
120.9
107.9
126.0
120.3
109.8
119.5
123.8
102.8
118.3
122.1
131.5
112.3
115.8
122.8
112.5
115.2
75
Source: Entity Offices for Statistics
76
77
Tabela 5: Tržište rada
broj nezaposlenih
stopa nezaposlenosti
prosječne neto penzije*
prosječne neto plate
Brčko
BiH
FBiH
RS
Brcko
BiH
FBiH
RS
Brčko BiH FBiH RS Brčko BiH FBiH RS Brčko
osobe
%
KM
mjesec
I-2003
386397
43,0%
476 510 386
454131 292040 145905 16186
704 160 188 120
II-2003
386668
43,1%
475 512 372
455587 292828 146604 16155
690 160 188 120
III-2003
234686
11843 452513 293204 144060 15249 41,7% 43,1%
38,0% 56,3% 473 516 371
633663 387134
684 160 189 120
IV-2003
387378
43,1%
479 523 369
448784 292843 142354 13587
677 162 188 125
V-2003
387502
43,0%
481 525 373
450243 292626 142621 14996
688 162 188 125
VI-2003
387850
11843 453373 293970 143666 15737
43,1%
57,1% 484 527 379
690 162 188 126
VII-2003
387832
43,4%
486 531 374
459015 297477 145112 16426
694 166 188 136
VIII-2003
388094
43,5%
487 527 381
462100 299340 146040 16720
691 166 188 136
IX-2003
238190
11843 466604 302271 147200 17133 42,3% 43,8%
38,2% 59,1% 488 527 376
637575 387542
691 173 199 137
X-2003
387198
43,9%
488 528 386
467847 303054 147635 17158
715 175 199 144
XI-2003
387679
43,9%
499 528 394
468486 303454 147980 17052
704 178 199 151
XII-2003
387294
11843 468067 304830 146574 16663
44,0%
58,5% 486 530 385
707 181 199 159
147
I-2004
387099
44,2%
496 527 394
461943 306806 138373 16764
710 184 199 157
165
II-2004
387197
44,3%
495 525 406
464492 308017 139614 16861
704 185 199 160
167
III-2004
635064 387212
235578
12274 466541 309875 139806 16860 42,4% 44,5%
37,2% 57,9% 494 526 405
707 186 199 161
167
IV-2004
387572
44,4%
499 530 410
466465 309866 139866 16733
703 185 199 161
168
V-2004
387592
44,4%
506 535 418
465100 309226 139106 16768
706 185 199 161
167
VI-2004
387651
12498 467841 311619 139281 16941
44,6%
57,5% 509 538 427
701 185 198 161
166
VII-2004
388884
44,9%
506 535 427
474051 317297 139572 17182
708 190 206 161
169
VIII-2004
389006
45,2%
509 536 434
477914 321093 139675 17146
704 190 206 161
169
IX-2004
638721 389119
236899
12703 482211 323111 141867 17233 43,0% 45,4%
37,5% 57,6% 506 534 423
703 191 207 161
170
X-2004
389502
45,4%
508 534 433
480672 323537 139602 17533
714 192 208 162
170
XI-2004
389360
45,4%
510 537 433
482342 323984 140643 17715
711 197 209 175
177
XII-2004
389523
12678 486088 325738 142462 17888
45,5%
58,5% 521 545 455
711 197 209 175
178
I-2005
389437
45,7%
522 542 431
490818 328225 144823 17770
703 202 218 175
181
II-2005
389866
45,9%
529 545 459
496660 330398 147901 18361
702 202 219 175
182
III-2005
643536 389844
241047
12645 500941 331417 151202 18322 43,8% 45,9%
38,5% 59,2% 530 548 460
706 202 220 175
182
IV-2005
390056
46,0%
526 547 452
503754 331639 153474 18641
684 202 219 175
182
V-2005
390289
45,9%
533 555 452
503097 330827 153625 18645
669 205 219 181
184
VI-2005
388912
13041 507429 335000 154202 18227
46,3%
58,3% 534 556 464
663 206 219 185
188
VII-2005
538 556 471
387558
512083 341650 153700
16733
46,9%
662 208 219 189
190
VIII-2005
543 561 472
387096
516214 344025 155050
17139
47,1%
671 208 219 189
190
IX-2005
644516 387009
13307 518126 345691 154935
244200
17500 44,6% 47,2%
38,8% 56,5% 543 563 472
665 208 219 189
191
X-2005
546 565 476
387275
520553 346294 156335
17924
47,2%
664 211 225 190
193
XI-2005
549 569 474
387083
516078 346596 151607
17875
47,2%
665 213 225 194
195
XII-2005
13196 508039 347478 142331
386592
18230
47,3%
58% 561 582 490
661 218 225 206
202
I-2006
386377
510345 349137 142754
18454
47,5%
570 592 483
662 222 230 209
204
II-2006
386680
513067 350187 144510
18370
47,5%
560 579 489
663 222 231 209
206
III-2006
647646 386999
247343
13304 514558 351367 145331
17860 44,3% 47,6%
37,0% 56,5% 571 591 494
666 223 231 209
206
IV-2006
388016
515052 351264 145678
18110
47,5%
577 596 508
672 222 230 209
206
V-2006
388436
513359 350958 144830
17571
47,5%
581 599 516
670 223 231 210
207
VI-2006
389457
13753 511371 352193 142252
16926
47,5%
55,2% 584 599 524
677 227 238 210
209
VII-2006
389849
47,8%
516005 356579 141932
17494
586 602 530
679 228 239 210
209
VIII-2006
390076
47,8%
516643 357478 141586
17579
591 606 535
670 227 238 210
207
IX-2006
662475 391498
257110
13867 518471 359177 141348
17946 43,9% 47,8%
35,5% 56,4% 592 609 538
675 227 238 210
207
X-2006
392116
47,9%
519227 360049 141404
17774
599 614 539
691 234 249 210
212
XI-2006
392839
47,9%
521162 360469 142899
17794
601 619 537
671 234 249 211
212
XII-2006
392865
48,0%
14118 524839 362368 144106
18365
56,5% 613 632 550
685 239 257 211
216
I-2007
48,3%
392734
531531 367449 146180
17902
614 634 531
667 245 265 212
223
II-2007
394038
48,5%
536969 371161 147673
18135
617 632 560
672 245 266 212
222
III-2007
396003
48,4%
14195 535489 371156 146517
17816
55,7% 625 641 569
680 246 267 213
228
IV-2007
396889
48,3%
532834 370961 144306
17567
635 651 577
678 255 279 215
234
V-2007
397754
48,2%
529733 370738 141610
17385
643 663 576
670 257 279 221
238
VI-2007
401254
48,2%
14553 531035 373519 140189
17327
54,4% 641 657 584
676 262 285 226
243
Izvor: Agencija za statistiku BiH, Zavodi za statistiku FBiH i RS, Zavodi za zapošljavanje FBiH, RS i BD, Fond za PIO/MIO FBiH i RS
*prosječne neto penzije za BiH su izračuante na osnovu broja penzinera od strane DEP osoblja
BiH
broj zaposlenih
FBiH
RS
78
Tabela 6: Statistika javnih finansija, 2003-2006, u hiljadama KM (uključuje općine)
Državne institucije BiH
2003
2004
2005
270.715 334.905 472.522
7.006
9.005 252.371
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7.006
8.256
0
0
749 251.500
0
0
871
0
0
0
111.537 169.915
41.855
152.172 155.984 178.296
254.559 295.502 399.461
100.799 140.701 197.864
74.831 140.701 197.864
25.968
0
0
50.025
64.083
85.559
91.418
79.291
88.077
0
0
1.156
738
100
843
3.078
758
15.258
8.501
10.567
10.704
16.156
39.403
73.061
2006
802.000
573.000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
37.000
191.000
713.000
453.000
453.000
0
144.000
100.000
0
0
6.000
10.000
88.000
BiH entiti
Federacija BiH sa fondovima, kantonima i općinama
RS sa fondovima i općinama
2003
2004
2005
2006
2003
2004
2005
2006
3.889.107 4.162.962 4.427.059 5.175.000 1.853.465 1.853.694 1.966.518 2.494.000
2.103.938
2.221.167 2.350.733 2.796.000
971.540 1.031.232 1.167.454 1.367.000
76.714
110.952
107.501
0
24.997
26.357
28.611
0
150.967
159.353
172.260
0
113.160
128.376
139.396
0
57.932
50.367
58.778
0
0
0
34.271
0
1.020.196
1.476.284
861.694
0
613.711
683.494
410.114
0
790.999
418.845 1.138.344
0
149.482
112.893
535.786
0
7.130
5.366
12.155
0
70.190
80.113
19.277
0
1.343.868
1.456.707 1.554.093 1.782.000
523.105
532.512
530.178
737.000
26.385
2.903
13.398
14.000
12.762
846
3.355
2.000
414.916
482.186
508.835
584.000
346.057
289.104
265.532
388.000
3.706.677 3.877.476 4.043.913 4.591.000 1.749.674 1.743.907 1.743.710 2.193.000
1.197.477
1.119.307 1.125.398 1.213.000
428.083
453.205
447.165
488.000
1.094.397
1.017.828 1.026.146 1.110.000
426.958
453.205
447.165
488.000
103.079
101.479
99.251
102.000
1.125
0
0
0
896.473
868.879
962.347 1.122.000
496.403
414.688
398.210
640.000
74.784
53.515
59.074
65.000
32.459
30.906
36.306
42.000
86.842
112.543
133.616
208.000
67.662
71.861
82.246
102.000
60.646
47.747
4.339
12.000
39.652
51.144
0
18.000
1.210.659
1.342.186 1.498.772 1.602.000
515.062
602.370
671.138
788.000
179.797
333.300
260.366
369.000
170.353
119.733
108.644
114.000
182.430
285.486 383.146 585.000 103.792 109.787 222.809 301.000
Prihodi
Porez
Porez na dohodak, dobit i kapitalne dobitke
Porez na pla}e i radnu snagu
Porez na imovinu
Porez na robu i usluge
Transferi s JR
Ostali porezi
Doprinosi za socijalno
Grantovi
Ostali prihodi
Rashodi
Kompenzacija zaposlenih
Plate i naknade
Doprinosi za socijalno
Korištenje robe i usluga
Kamate
Subvencije
Grantovi
Socijalna davanja
Ostali rashodi
Bruto operativni bilans
Transakcije u nefinansijskim sredstvima
Neto nabavka nefinansijskih sredstava
16.478
11.481
33.715
49.000
92.262
127.640
Stalna sredstva
16.379
10.054
33.283
87.496
126.210
Ostalo
100
1.427
432
4.767
1.430
Neto pozajmljivanje/zaduživanje
-322
27.922
39.346
39.000
90.168
157.846
Transakcije u finansijskim sredstvima
Neto ostvarena finansijska sredstva
107.257 183.904 141.832
91.000
203.157
158.350
Neto stvorene obaveze
107.579 155.981 102.486
52.000
112.989
504
Domaće
28.181
19.675
8.079
51.000
66.783
-62.157
Strane
79.399 136.307
94.407
1.000
46.206
62.661
Neto pozajmljivanje/zaduživanje
-322
27.922
39.346
39.000
90.168
157.846
*Općine su uključene.
Izvor podataka: Podaci konsolidirani po SVF metodologiji od strane CBBiH na osnovu podataka ministarstava finansija i vanbudžetskih fondova
75.787
61.706
14.081
34.000
137.783
116.756
21.027
85.026
173.000
389.000
77.737
69.653
8.084
26.055
362.000
-28.000
-33.000
5.000
389.000
87.409
61.354
25.956
35.398
26.055
197.052
163.052
105.230
57.823
34.000
125.167
40.141
11.006
29.135
85.026
87.848
123.551
-35.703
295.298
195.000
340.192
44.894
-25.521
70.414
295.298
2003
199.925
141.074
4.180
4.131
637
112.238
19.887
0
10.859
1.044
46.948
161.791
57.159
51.448
5.711
75.533
0
320
4.700
20.893
3.185
38.134
Brčko Distrikt sa fondom
Konsolidovana BiH*
2004
2005
2006
2003
2004
2005
2006
206.065 178.688 201.000 6.020.950 6.377.495 6.956.710 8.553.000
140.433 124.701 139.000 3.223.558 3.401.837 3.895.258 4.875.000
3.891
3.806
0
105.891
141.199
139.919
0
4.562
5.058
0
268.259
292.291
316.714
0
815
1.088
0
58.569
51.182
94.136
0
117.124
44.003
0 1.753.152 2.285.157 1.315.811
0
14.040
70.744
0
960.368
546.527 1.996.374
0
2
1
0
77.319
85.481
32.304
0
13.591
16.337
18.000 1.877.832 2.002.809 2.100.608 2.537.000
990
1.011
1.000
50.884
73.813
59.619
34.000
51.052
36.640
43.000
868.676
899.035
901.225 1.108.000
157.257 162.589 174.000 5.680.439 5.894.011 6.261.596 7.552.000
63.028
58.083
66.000 1.783.518 1.776.241 1.828.511 2.220.000
60.906
58.083
66.000 1.647.635 1.672.639 1.729.259 2.118.000
2.122
0
0
135.883
103.601
99.251
102.000
67.166
70.718
73.000 1.518.434 1.414.816 1.516.834 1.980.000
0
36
0
107.243
84.421
95.417
108.000
0
0
0
154.823
184.404
217.018
311.000
4.056
0
0
4.892
2.207
5.182
10.000
20.127
27.022
30.000 1.749.692 1.965.442 2.212.191 2.426.000
2.880
6.729
5.000
361.836
466.481
386.444
497.000
48.808
16.099
27.000 340.512 483.484 695.115 1.001.000
-4.000
237.864
224.777
13.088
102.647
229.537
197.970
31.567
253.947
289.695
303.073
-13.378
405.420
0
3
-1
4
-4.000
335.265
232.618
153.219
79.399
102.647
433.523
179.576
43.269
136.307
253.947
495.217
89.798
-9.689
99.487
405.420
14.629
0
14.629
34.179
30.349
29.483
866
-14.250
30.000
129.000
51.387
51.249
138
-13.253
57.000
-72.000
-72.000
0
129.000
19.046
32.300
32.300
0
-13.253
14.701
-19.478
-19.478
0
34.179
-17.566
-3.316
-3.253
-63
-14.250
79
447.000
554.000
447.000
514.000
-40.000
-51.000
11.000
554.000
80
Tabela 6b: Prihodi i rashodi centralnih vladinih nivoa, 2005-2007
2005
P1 2005
A
361.017.707
633.922.282
633.815.255
394.455.130
492.830.168
566.808.000
BiH
FBiH
RS
BiH
FBiH
RS
178.668.107
477.266.197
419.882.728
149.307.679
477.266.197
419.882.728
167.036.458
557.800.765
589.066.927
160.265.638
517.471.588
589.066.927
312.216.797
397.353.968
528.300.000
312.216.797
397.325.169
528.300.000
345.530.313
633.922.282
632.415.255
323.521.666
633.920.707
632.415.255
380.223.081
492.830.168
565.808.000
377.509.707
482.625.781
565.808.000
BiH
FBiH
RS
124.280.486
346.106.762
358.766.354
127.219.514
446.838.032
525.872.221
279.696.418
349.795.263
466.300.000
286.303.582
489.308.242
535.215.255
309.852.140
436.344.752
504.608.000
BiH
Prihodi od indirektnih poreza
FBiH
sa JR UIO
RS
BiH
FBiH
Porez na robe i usluge
RS
BiH
Porez na meñunarodnu
FBiH
trgovinu i transakcije
RS
BiH
Porez na dohodak, dobit i
FBiH
kapitalnu dobit
RS
BiH
Porez na platu i radnu snagu FBiH
RS
BiH
FBiH
Ostali porezi
RS
124.280.486
316.463.750
156.769.362
0
666.749
123.651.922
0
7.593.939
1.238.727
0
20.331.487
18.227.118
0
127.219.514
422.289.927
319.881.598
0
-6.092
127.716.172
0
1.574.956
49.631
0
21.769.415
9.781.692
0
47.991.481
0
1.050.838
10.887.744
56.571.663
0
1.209.825
11.871.465
279.696.418
322.898.369
340.700.000
0
0
33.600.000
0
172.834
0
0
25.459.774
23.000.000
0
0
54.300.000
0
1.264.286
14.700.000
286.303.582
464.669.984
415.215.255
0
0
7.700.000
0
267.466
100.000
0
22.928.921
10.800.000
0
0
77.900.000
0
1.441.871
23.400.000
309.852.140
413.197.575
389.208.000
0
0
6.100.000
0
151.178
0
0
21.439.594
44.600.000
0
0
49.800.000
0
1.556.405
14.900.000
25.027.193
131.159.435
61.116.374
33.046.124
70.633.556
63.194.706
32.520.379
47.529.906
62.000.000
37.218.084
144.612.465
97.200.000
67.657.567
46.281.029
61.200.000
0
0
0
40.329.177
0
28.799
0
0
1.575
0
0
10.204.387
0
283.843
9.088.799
1.766.769
18.221.017
443.899
3.779.116
2.547.805
0
0
3.419.008
1.840.387
19.665.872
0
3.320.902
2.187.745
16.500.000
0
0
2.713.374
0
11.961.544
9.669.900
596.469
22.998.494
0
5.608.888
2.023.927
0
1.200.000
15.487.394
0
1.400.000
14.232.049
0
1.000.000
1.1.1
Prihodi od poreza
(1.1.1.1+...+1.1.1.6)
1.1.1.5
1.1.1.6
1.1.2
Neporezni prihodi
BiH
FBiH
RS
1.2
Kapitalni primici
BiH
FBiH
RS
1.4
1.5
1.6
programe
Earmarked revenues for
BiH
Prihodi od CIPS-a
BiH
Vanredni prihodi
BiH
BiH godina)
Ostali prihodi (transferi od prethodnih
2
Grantovi - Potpore
1.3
2007
P1 2007
339.165.991
397.353.968
529.500.000
Tekući prihodi
(1.1.1+1.1.2+1.1.3)
1.1.1.4
P2 2006
190.034.952
557.800.765
594.675.815
1,1
1.1.1.3
P1 2006
190.629.651
486.936.097
420.479.197
Ukupni prihodi (1.1+1.2)
1.1.1.2
P2 2005
BiH
FBiH
RS
UKUPNI PRIHODI I
GRANTOVI (1+2)
1
1.1.1.1
2006
BiH
FBiH
RS
81
B
UKUPNI RASHODI I NETO ZAJMOVI (1+2)
1
Ukupni rashodi (1.1+1.2+1.3+1.4)
1,1
Tekući troškovi (1.1.1+1.1.2)
1.1.1
Kamate
1.1.2
Bez kamatni rashodi
1.1.2.1
Plaće i nadoknade
1.1.2.2
Robe i usluge
1.1.2.3 Subvencije i transferi nedržavnim subjektima
1.1.2.4
Ostali beskamatni rashodi
1.2.
Investicijski (kapitalni) rashodi
1.3.
Programi specijalne namjene
1.4
Rezerve
2
Neto zajmovi
Ukupni bilans budžeta bez jednokratnih sredstava (gotovina)
Ukupan bilans budžeta
BiH
FBiH
RS
BiH
FBiH
RS
BiH
FBiH
RS
BiH
FBiH
RS
BiH
FBiH
RS
BiH
FBiH
RS
BiH
FBiH
RS
BiH
FBiH
RS
BiH
FBiH
RS
BiH
FBiH
RS
BiH
BiH
FBiH
RS
BiH
FBiH
RS
BiH
FBiH
RS
BiH
FBiH
RS
145.640.477
424.248.903
418.648.012
145.640.477
418.527.153
417.705.116
119.777.955
385.333.964
408.465.676
0
273.745
181.342
119.777.955
385.060.219
408.284.334
92.612.707
133.977.113
179.606.293
27.165.248
25.763.301
31.579.931
0
225.219.805
170.788.669
193.862.814
515.892.296
575.189.467
193.862.814
502.279.195
562.372.315
140.766.076
475.011.029
531.722.420
0
1.001.475
132.512
140.766.076
474.009.554
531.589.908
104.448.645
133.146.054
184.518.525
36.287.431
52.351.428
51.248.817
30.000
287.412.072
235.040.258
100.000
26.309.441
1.179.454
33.193.189
9.239.440
24.683.068
1.100.000
60.782.308
12.810.511
27.268.166
30.649.895
32.622.967
7.663.260
0
0
0
5.721.750
942.896
33.027.630
53.017.294
1.234.716
44.989.174
62.687.194
1.831.185
0
0
13.613.101
-2.246.423
-26.826.356
41.908.469
13.877.460
-3.827.862
41.908.469
19.486.348
270.703.256
350.911.992
447.700.000
270.703.256
348.653.458
447.700.000
245.955.291
344.096.814
440.900.000
0
30.219.173
0
245.955.291
313.877.641
440.900.000
203.504.210
66.869.945
176.300.000
42.451.081
16.483.415
34.000.000
0
229.319.281
185.900.000
0
1.205.000
44.700.000
3.403.135
4.556.644
6.800.000
19.993.179
1.351.651
0
0
0
2.258.534
0
66.438.808
46.441.976
80.600.000
68.462.735
46.441.976
81.800.000
277.567.920
523.888.471
581.053.000
277.567.920
523.888.471
581.053.000
203.712.723
484.428.143
559.353.000
0
609.831
253.000
203.712.723
483.818.312
559.100.000
133.033.729
80.515.950
188.100.000
70.678.994
27.231.487
44.700.000
0
374.020.875
282.800.000
0
2.050.000
43.500.000
30.581.047
39.460.328
21.700.000
35.866.431
7.407.719
0
0
315.473.400
427.443.593
545.400.000
315.473.400
427.443.593
545.400.000
273.065.194
408.810.267
523.500.000
0
909.097
20.400.000
273.065.194
407.901.170
503.100.000
234.488.591
87.492.708
192.400.000
38.576.603
20.284.761
41.600.000
0
300.123.701
220.800.000
67.962.393
110.033.811
51.362.255
83.449.787
110.033.811
52.762.255
64.749.681
65.386.575
20.408.000
78.981.730
65.386.575
21.408.000
0
48.300.000
1.851.738
18.633.326
21.900.000
27.706.703
12.849.765
0
0
Izvor: Ministarstvo finansija i trezora BiH i ministarstva finansija FBiH i RS
82
83
Tabela 7: Struktura monetarnih agregata (u milionima KM)
Godina
Gotovina izvan
monetarnih vlasti
Depoziti banaka
kod monetarnih
vlasti
Ostali depoziti po
viñenju kod
monetarnih vlasti
Rezervni novac
(M0)
Gotovina izvan
banaka
Depoziti po viñenju
u domaćoj valuti
Transakcijski
novac (M1)
Oročeni i štedni
depoziti u domaćoj
valuti
Depoziti po
viñenju u stranoj
valuti
Oročeni i štedni
depoziti u stranoj
valuti
Kvazi novac (QM)
Novac u širem
smislu (M2)
1
3
4
5
6=3+4+5
7
8
9=7+8
10
11
12
13=10+11+12
14=9+13
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
114,6
167,5
538,4
695,9
1806
1868,7
1721,9
1817,4
1907,2
2154,2
213
181,7
289,2
261,9
734,7
446,9
885,4
1421,4
2062,1
2891,9
0
0
0
0,1
2,2
2,9
1,9
1,8
2,7
3,8
327,6
349,2
827,6
957,9
2542,9
2318,5
2609,2
3240,6
3972
5049,9
112,5
162,5
515,3
651,7
1673,9
1734,4
1601,3
1670,6
1729,1
1978,3
139,2
147,5
584,6
750
1018,4
1273,3
1512,1
1864,9
2373,6
3092,3
251,7
310
1099,9
1401,7
2692,3
3007,7
3113,4
3535,5
4102,7
5070,6
9,6
8
22,4
77,9
140,9
272,2
461,9
703,4
818,1
1098,8
553,7
762,1
465,5
559,5
928,5
817,1
818,3
988,1
1154,8
1358,8
363,3
467
577,3
428,2
907,7
974,4
1102,5
1604,6
1999,4
2544,4
926,6
1237,1
1065,2
1065,6
1977,1
2063,7
2382,7
3296,1
3972,3
5002
1178,2
1547
2165
2467,3
4669,3
5071,3
5496,1
6831,6
8075,1
10072,7
I 2005
II 2005
III 2005
IV 2005
V 2005
VI 2005
VII 2005
VIII 2005
IX 2005
X 2005
XI 2005
XII 2005
I 2006
II 2006
III 2006
IV 2006
V 2006
VI 2006
VII 2006
VIII 2006
IX 2006
X 2006
XI 2006
XII 2006
I 2007
II 2007
III 2007
IV 2007
V 2007
VI 2007
1789,3
1780,8
1791,5
1822,4
1812,8
1863,3
1931,4
1918
1883
1877,3
1843,2
1907,2
1844,4
1836,1
1837,9
1901,7
1906,6
1938,5
2021,8
2045,4
2054,2
2060,6
2021,8
2154,2
2077,4
2096,5
2107,6
2161,3
2157,2
2207,6
1415
1391,5
1338,4
1350,5
1280,1
1385,2
1494,6
1685,6
1670
1685,7
1818,3
2062,1
2102,1
2157,4
2223,3
2157,8
2204,3
2245,9
2446,1
2479,9
2701,7
2827,1
2878,7
2891,9
2909,5
2943,8
3021,8
3115,8
3174,9
3269,1
4,6
1,6
1,9
1,9
1,4
2,3
2
1,8
2,8
2,1
1,8
2,7
2,2
2
2
2,5
2,2
2,8
2,9
2,6
4,4
3,3
2,8
3,8
3,5
2,9
2
3,1
2,6
8,5
3208,9
3173,9
3131,8
3174,8
3094,3
3250,8
3428
3605,4
3555,8
3565,1
3663,3
3972
3948,7
3995,5
4063,2
4062
4113,1
4187,2
4470,8
4527,9
4760,3
4891
4903,3
5049,9
4990,4
5043,2
5131,4
5280,2
5334,7
5485,2
1608,3
1606,8
1626,7
1684,2
1630,1
1690,5
1769,9
1733,6
1707,8
1700,5
1659,2
1729,1
1652,5
1659,4
1656,4
1738,3
1700,5
1746,7
1810,9
1827,6
1864,7
1835,8
1816,4
1978,3
1861,6
1897,7
1910,8
1951,7
1928,7
2002,6
1881,7
1875
1906
1957,9
2049,5
2012,7
2113,5
2161,1
2176,2
2214
2248,5
2373,6
2330,9
2305,6
2434,8
2465,8
2591,9
2661,9
2765,7
2839,2
2907,9
3020,1
3048,9
3092,3
3198,8
3264,4
3389,6
3487,5
3601,7
3674,0
3490
3481,8
3532,7
3642,1
3679,6
3703,2
3883,4
3894,7
3884
3914,5
3907,7
4102,7
3983,4
3965
4091,2
4204,1
4292,4
4408,6
4576,6
4666,8
4772,6
4855,9
4865,3
5070,6
5060,4
5162,1
5300,4
5439,2
5530,4
5676,6
685,8
702
716,4
705,6
730,1
721,2
728,7
747,6
770,8
778
789,9
818,1
840,9
848,5
854,9
887,4
910,5
912,4
979,5
979,3
987,4
1025,9
1066,8
1098,8
1146,4
1155
1173,2
1238,7
1260,5
1308,5
1004,7
991,7
1007,2
1018,1
1093,2
1098,5
1080,3
1118,6
1115,3
1148,1
1149,8
1154,8
1149,5
1165,8
1202,3
1200,7
1235,3
1270,9
1343,3
1288,4
1335,3
1321,2
1332,9
1358,8
1347
1377,4
1322,8
1338,9
1402,8
1385,3
1651,7
1669,8
1680,2
1696,3
1681
1754,2
1794,3
1864,6
1908,5
1938
1969,4
1999,4
2023,5
2030,7
2161,7
2198,1
2186,3
2207,4
2274,4
2352,7
2425,2
2459,9
2508,8
2544,4
2599,6
2681,4
2704,2
2723
2793,9
2824
3342,2
3363,5
3403,8
3420
3504,3
3573,9
3603,3
3730,8
3794,6
3864,1
3909,1
3972,3
4013,9
4045
4218,9
4286,2
4332,1
4390,7
4597,2
4620,4
4747,9
4807
4908,5
5002
5093
5213,8
5200,2
5300,6
5457,2
5517,8
6832,2
6845,3
6936,6
7062,1
7183,9
7277,1
7486,6
7625,4
7678,6
7778,7
7816,8
8075,1
7997,3
8010
8310,3
8490,3
8624,5
8799,3
9173,8
9287,3
9520,6
9662,8
9773,8
10072,7
10153,4
10376
10500,6
10739,6
10987,5
11194,4
I 2005
II 2005
III 2005
IV 2005
V 2005
VI 2005
VII 2005
VIII 2005
IX 2005
X 2005
XI 2005
XII 2005
I 2006
II 2006
III 2006
IV 2006
V 2006
VI 2006
VII 2006
VIII 2006
IX 2006
X 2006
XI 2006
XII 2006
I 2007
II 2007
III 2007
IV 2007
5,7%
6,1%
5,8%
5,7%
4,3%
7,6%
6,1%
5,7%
4,6%
4,9%
4,5%
4,9%
3,1%
3,1%
2,6%
4,4%
5,2%
4,0%
4,7%
6,6%
9,1%
9,8%
9,7%
13,0%
12,6%
14,2%
14,7%
13,7%
53,8%
45,0%
17,9%
24,4%
7,9%
11,3%
15,9%
24,2%
21,3%
25,9%
32,6%
45,1%
48,6%
55,0%
66,1%
59,8%
72,2%
62,1%
63,7%
47,1%
61,8%
67,7%
58,3%
40,2%
38,4%
36,5%
35,9%
44,4%
187,5%
33,3%
-26,9%
18,8%
-17,6%
9,5%
33,3%
38,5%
64,7%
31,3%
38,5%
50,0%
-52,2%
25,0%
5,3%
31,6%
57,1%
21,7%
45,0%
44,4%
57,1%
57,1%
55,6%
40,7%
59,1%
45,0%
0,0%
24,0%
22,8%
20,3%
10,6%
12,9%
5,8%
9,1%
10,2%
13,7%
11,9%
13,9%
16,8%
22,6%
23,1%
25,9%
29,7%
27,9%
32,9%
28,8%
30,4%
25,6%
33,9%
37,2%
33,8%
27,1%
26,4%
26,2%
26,3%
30,0%
5,1%
3,1%
8,2%
7,9%
7,7%
9,1%
0,8%
7,5%
7,6%
9,7%
14,2%
16,0%
14,1%
13,9%
15,8%
15,4%
16,7%
19,0%
17,9%
19,8%
22,9%
24,0%
24,5%
23,6%
27,0%
30,2%
29,6%
29,4%
38,6%
37,8%
38,2%
32,5%
36,2%
24,6%
38,5%
39,9%
43,7%
39,6%
15,6%
16,3%
22,6%
20,9%
19,3%
25,8%
24,7%
26,5%
34,4%
31,0%
28,1%
31,9%
35,1%
34,3%
36,3%
36,1%
37,2%
39,6%
26,6%
25,0%
22,9%
24,0%
33,3%
24,8%
15,1%
15,9%
15,1%
14,4%
14,4%
16,9%
14,4%
17,6%
19,4%
17,9%
13,0%
15,7%
24,3%
15,2%
19,7%
15,1%
15,9%
17,7%
17,2%
18,2%
10,0%
11,5%
41,5%
41,1%
38,3%
35,6%
32,9%
35,8%
32,4%
35,2%
36,7%
37,5%
26,3%
24,6%
22,5%
21,6%
28,7%
29,6%
30,1%
25,8%
26,8%
26,2%
27,1%
26,9%
27,4%
27,3%
28,5%
32,0%
25,1%
23,9%
36,1%
35,3%
33,3%
31,3%
33,7%
29,9%
27,8%
29,6%
30,8%
30,1%
20,3%
20,5%
20,1%
20,3%
23,9%
25,3%
23,6%
22,9%
27,6%
23,8%
25,1%
24,4%
25,6%
25,9%
26,9%
28,9%
23,3%
23,7%
18,3%
16,8%
19,2%
18,1%
19,0%
18,4%
12,2%
17,3%
18,0%
19,0%
17,2%
18,2%
17,1%
17,0%
19,8%
20,2%
20,1%
20,9%
22,5%
21,8%
24,0%
24,2%
25,0%
24,7%
27,0%
29,5%
26,4%
26,5%
V 2007
VI 2007
13,1%
13,9%
44,0%
45,6%
18,2%
203,6%
29,7%
31,0%
28,8%
28,8%
38,4%
43,4%
13,6%
9,0%
27,8%
27,9%
26,0%
25,7%
27,4%
27,2%
Izvor: Centralna banka BiH
godišnja stopa rasta (%)
-10,3%
23,2%
-10,2%
18,1%
5,8%
10,3%
4,9%
10,7%
3,3%
11,5%
7,1%
10,9%
-9,7%
11,7%
5,5%
9,1%
4,6%
10,2%
4,3%
14,4%
5,1%
21,9%
3,5%
27,3%
2,7%
23,9%
3,3%
23,0%
1,8%
27,7%
3,2%
25,9%
4,3%
26,5%
3,3%
32,3%
2,3%
30,9%
5,4%
31,4%
9,2%
33,6%
8,0%
36,4%
9,5%
35,6%
14,4%
30,3%
12,7%
37,2%
14,4%
41,6%
15,4%
39,2%
12,3%
41,4%
13,4%
14,7%
39,0%
38,0%
84
Tabela 8: Struktura indeksa troškova života (ITŽ)
Mjesec
I 2005
II 2005
III 2005
IV 2005
V 2005
VI 2005
VII 2005
VIII 2005
IX 2005
X 2005
XI 2005
XII 2005
I 2006
II 2006
III 2006
IV 2006
V 2006
VI 2006
VII 2006
VIII 2006
IX 2006
X 2006
XI 2006
XII 2006
I 2007
II 2007
III 2007
Hrana
FBiH
RS
Piće i duhan
FBiH
RS
Odjeća i obuća
FBiH
RS
Stanovanje
FBiH
RS
FBiH
RS
97,1
97,9
99,6
99,6
100,4
101,8
103,5
103,2
104,3
103,3
103,3
103,4
107,5
108,7
106,9
108,4
109,0
110,4
108,4
107,1
105,7
106,1
106,5
105,6
99,9
100,8
101,3
108,8
109,2
109,2
109,4
109,7
109,7
110,1
109,9
110
110,4
110,2
110,3
101,2
101,7
101,9
101,8
102,0
102,0
102,2
102,7
102,8
102,4
102,6
102,2
100,9
100,3
100,4
102,5
102,7
102,2
101,9
102,1
102,1
102
102,0
101,3
101,2
100,9
100,9
101,6
101,6
102,1
102,3
102,3
102,7
102,7
102,7
102,3
102,5
102,2
102,0
100,8
100,9
100,4
100,0
100,0
100,4
100,5
100,5
100,4
100,5
100,5
100,8
100,9
101,5
101,5
104,1
104,1
103,6
106,3
108,6
108,7
109,0
109,0
110,7
107,5
106,6
106,2
102,3
102,0
102,3
101,9
101,9
102,0
101,9
101
99,5
99,7
99,7
99,6
99,6
99,6
99,6
102,7
102,8
102,8
103,3
104,1
105,4
105,5
105,4
105,4
105,6
105,5
105,5
101,9
101,9
101,8
99,2
99,2
99,1
98,4
98,4
98,4
98,4
98,5
95,7
93,6
93,7
98,6
118,8
118,6
117,7
116,5
116,5
116,6
117,5
117,5
122,7
122,3
122,2
114,8
101,4
103,6
103,8
93,3
92,9
96,2
95,5
96,1
96,7
97,5
98,6
99,3
100,4
99,7
101,0
111,4
112,8
110,4
111,5
112,6
110,5
109,9
110,3
108,5
108,1
106,9
105,9
98,4
99,8
98,8
111,8
112,8
112,8
112,8
113,9
116
114,6
114,1
113,5
113,0
112,7
114,3
108,7
108,1
108,6
110,1
110,0
108,2
107,5
107,8
107,8
108,2
107,9
100,7
100,3
100,7
100,5
101,1
100,3
101,1
97,6
96,2
96,2
95,6
95,2
95,6
96,1
95,6
94,8
96,4
97,1
97,1
100,5
101,3
101,6
101,9
102,0
100,7
102,9
104,6
105,0
103,2
102,1
101,5
102,7
102,5
102,3
105,0
104,9
104,8
104,9
105,2
105,3
105,6
107,8
109,2
117,1
17,2
117,4
114,5
114,5
114,4
115,0
114,8
116,2
115,1
113,0
111,2
101,1
101,7
101,6
Renta
Energenti i električna
energija
FBiH
RS
100,3
100,4
101,1
101,3
102,4
103
103,2
103,1
103
103,0
105,1
105,1
109,6
110
109,8
118,6
124,1
123,5
124,3
124,2
128,8
117,5
115,2
114,4
107,8
107,4
107,4
Pokućstvo
FBiH
RS
104,7
98,7
100,9
104,7
98,8
100,2
104,7
98,9
98,8
111,8
99,1
98,1
111,7
98,8
97,9
111,3
99
98,2
111,4
99,1
98,5
111,8
99,0
98,9
112,7
99,8
100,7
112,8
99,9
99,5
116,9
99,1
99,1
117,4
99,2
98,7
122,6
99,7
98,8
122,5
99,6
99,3
122,4
98,7
101,5
117,6
99
104
117,6
99,6
103,9
117,7
99,6
103,5
118,4
99,7
103,3
118,3
99,6
102,6
118,6
99,9
102,0
115,7
99,7
103,6
112,3
99,2
103,3
112,0
99,0
103,2
101,6
98,1
99,3
101,6
97,6
99,4
101,7
98,6
98,4
Izvor: Zavodi za statistiku FBiH i RS;
Higijena i zdravlje
FBiH
RS
100,0
99,5
98,6
99,1
99,6
99,5
100,9
101,5
101,4
100,8
99,3
99,4
106,2
107,2
108,2
108,1
108,3
108,0
107,8
107,8
108,0
109,1
109,0
109,0
102,4
101,2
100,9
105,4
107,4
104,8
105,4
105,9
107
108,7
108,6
111,2
111,8
107,8
108,6
121
118,9
123,4
122,6
121,9
118,4
117,1
115,8
115,0
114,7
115,5
113,6
97,0
97,2
97,0
Obrazovanje i kultura
FBiH
RS
99,3
98,3
98,4
98,5
98,5
98,4
98,5
98,0
97,8
97,6
97,6
97,5
98,6
98,3
100,1
101
100,6
100,4
100,7
101,4
105,0
105,5
106,3
106,2
104,4
103,0
101,6
97,9
97,9
96,8
94,5
93,9
93,9
93,9
91,5
91,4
91,3
91,3
91,2
103
103
104,4
105,7
107,0
107,4
107,4
107,4
107,0
107,2
107,3
107,2
101,4
101,4
101,1
Transport i
telekomunikacije
FBiH
RS
FBiH
RS
105,9
107,5
108,0
108,9
108,4
108,2
109,5
109,3
110,4
109,9
115,9
116,0
112
110,8
109,8
109,6
109,8
109,4
108,5
108,7
107,0
104,4
102,2
102,8
100,9
100,2
100,7
99,9
100,2
101,1
101,2
101,5
102,2
103,3
103,2
103,8
103,2
103,1
103,2
104,8
105,4
104,7
106
106,9
107,6
106,6
106,2
105,9
105,3
105,5
105,0
100,9
101,0
101,1
98,2
98,1
99,8
99,5
99,6
100,4
101
101,2
102,2
102,9
102,1
102,7
110,2
110,9
109,9
110,4
111,3
109,7
109,3
109,4
107,9
107,7
107,3
106,0
99,4
99,3
99,7
110,8
107,4
107,9
109,4
108,7
106
108,3
106,8
110,5
110,9
115,7
113,9
106,2
106,5
104,9
105
105,8
108,8
107,2
108,5
103,5
99,3
93,2
94,8
101,1
102,4
103,5
Robe
Usluge
FBiH
RS
Ukupan indeks
FBiH
RS
103,3
104,5
104,5
104,5
104,7
104,7
104,8
104,4
104,3
104,3
108,9
108,9
108,7
107,8
107,4
107,3
106,9
106,8
107,2
107,2
108,0
107,3
104,6
104,7
102,5
101,7
102,2
100,4
101,0
101,7
101,8
102,2
102,6
103,5
103,4
103,9
103,4
104,1
104,2
105,4
105,8
105,1
106,2
106,9
107,5
106,7
106,3
106,2
105,6
105,2
104,9
101,1
101,1
101,3
108,1
105,9
105,4
104,5
104,9
102,1
102,6
102,6
102
102,4
108,6
109,6
110,7
110,8
110,7
110,9
110,7
113,1
112,9
113,3
113,9
112,3
105,0
103,7
102,0
102,2
102,4
99,6
99,2
100,6
100,3
100,4
100,6
101,2
101,4
102,2
102,9
103,1
103,8
110,3
110,9
110,0
110,5
111,2
110,2
109,8
110,0
108,8
108,3
107,0
105,7
99,8
99,7
100,1
85
86
Tabela 9: Sektorska struktura kredita u bankarskom sektoru (u milionima KM)
Potraživanja od
nefinancijskih
privatnih
preduzeća i
udruženja
Potraživanja od
preduzeća
ukupno
Potraživanja od
stanovništva
Ostala
potraživanja
Potraživanja
privatnog
sektora
Potraživanja
Ukupno
Godina
Potraživanja od
opće vlade
Potraživanja od
nefinancijskih
javnih
preduzeća
1
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2
133,7
113,1
36,7
33,9
33
60,6
45,6
45,6
3
1099,1
1100
1003,2
1673,1
1430,8
1254,7
1166,7
691,7
4
1034,8
1314,3
1449,4
874,9
1142,8
1442,2
1859,6
2478,2
5
2133,9
2414,3
2452,6
2548
2573,6
2696,9
3026,3
3169,9
6
121
247,5
268
384,2
681,9
1456,3
1966,4
2627,6
7
172
393,3
291,8
435,2
732,6
1523,6
2049,7
2711,6
8
2305,9
2807,7
2744,5
2983,1
3306
4220,5
5075,9
5881,5
9
2439,6
2920,8
2781,2
3017
3339
4281,1
5121,5
5927,1
2005
2006
50,1
68,3
695
661,6
3244
4075,5
3939
4737,1
3453,4
4373,7
3555,1
4502,5
7494,1
9239,7
7544,2
9308
I 2005
II 2005
III 2005
IV 2005
V 2005
VI 2005
VII 2005
VIII 2005
IX 2005
X 2005
XI 2005
XII 2005
I 2006
II 2006
III 2006
IV 2006
V 2006
VI 2006
VII 2006
VIII 2006
IX 2006
X 2006
XI 2006
XII 2006
I 2007
II 2007
III 2007
IV 2007
V 2007
VI 2007
45,7
45,2
44,3
44
44
43,8
43,8
45,5
46,5
46,4
49,6
50,1
49,9
49,4
49,2
48,6
48,3
54,4
54,5
62,9
66
59
65,4
68,3
64,4
69,2
84,2
97,8
100,2
104,7
696,5
686
680,1
677,6
673,2
674,2
678,1
665,6
670,1
678
683,3
695
685,9
678,50
667,9
653,4
641,4
647,8
641,4
636,5
649,7
657,7
660,7
661,6
678,2
673,4
677,7
670,2
677,5
666
2501,6
2542,4
2633,9
2730,9
2802,1
2883,7
2941,4
2960,8
3003,4
3059,1
3155
3244
3247,8
3341,80
3414,3
3491,2
3526,8
3629,6
3703,3
3709,2
3700,8
3795,5
3910,1
4075,5
4093,9
4213,2
4326
4393,4
4488,2
4599,5
3198,1
3228,4
3314
3408,5
3475,3
3557,9
3619,5
3626,4
3673,5
3737,1
3838,3
3939
3933,7
4020,3
4082,2
4144,6
4168,2
4277,4
4344,7
4345,7
4350,5
4453,2
4570,8
4737,1
4772,1
4886,6
5003,7
5063,6
5165,7
5265,5
2650,8
2695,3
2757
2844,3
2920,6
2997
3070,1
3139,4
3212,4
3287,7
3351,9
3453,4
3471,2
3520,50
3600
3691
3802,8
3909,8
4007,4
4071
4148,4
4229,7
4300,1
4373,7
4425,8
4502,6
4642,5
4791,2
4924,9
5048,6
2735
2781,8
2845,9
2930,4
3006,7
3078,9
3156,6
3232,6
3320
3406,8
3461,2
3555,1
3567,7
3607,20
3700,5
3785,6
3923
4016,6
4104
4173
4244,4
4319,7
4396,8
4502,5
4557,5
4645
4798,7
4975,6
5110,6
5933,1
6010,3
6160,1
6338,9
6482,1
6636,9
6776,1
6859,1
6993,5
7143,8
7299,5
7494,1
7501,4
7627,3
7782,5
7930,1
8091,3
8294
8448,8
8518,8
8594,8
8773
8967,7
9239,7
9329,6
9531,6
9802,4
10039,3
10276,3
10502,4
5978,8
6055,5
6204,4
6382,9
6526,1
6680,7
6819,9
6904,6
7040
7190,2
7349,1
7544,2
7551,3
7676,70
7831,7
7978,7
8139,6
8348,4
8503,3
8581,7
8660,8
8832
9033,1
9308
9394
9600,8
9886,6
10137,1
10376,5
10607,1
I 2005
II 2005
III 2005
IV 2005
V 2005
VI 2005
VII 2005
VIII 2005
IX 2005
X 2005
XI 2005
XII 2005
I 2006
II 2006
III 2006
IV 2006
V 2006
VI 2006
VII 2006
VIII 2006
IX 2006
X 2006
XI 2006
XII 2006
I 2007
II 2007
III 2007
IV 2007
V 2007
VI 2007
Izvor: Centralna banka BiH
4,1%
-1,1%
-4,3%
-5,0%
-3,3%
-3,1%
-3,7%
-0,7%
2,2%
1,5%
7,4%
9,9%
9,2%
9,3%
11,1%
10,5%
9,8%
24,2%
24,4%
38,2%
41,9%
27,2%
31,9%
36,3%
29,1%
40,1%
71,1%
101,2%
107,5%
92,5%
-40,4%
-41,2%
-42,1%
-42,6%
-42,4%
-4,6%
-4,9%
-5,4%
-7,2%
-5,6%
-3,2%
0,5%
-1,5%
-1,1%
-1,8%
-3,6%
-4,7%
-3,9%
-5,4%
-4,4%
-3,0%
-3,0%
-3,3%
-4,8%
-1,1%
-0,8%
1,5%
2,6%
5,6%
2,8%
godišnja stopa rasta (%)
31,6%
4,1%
28,8%
2,8%
29,5%
3,3%
28,9%
3,3%
30,2%
4,6%
33,7%
24,3%
34,1%
24,5%
33,1%
23,8%
31,3%
22,0%
30,9%
22,3%
32,8%
24,5%
30,9%
24,3%
29,8%
23,0%
31,4%
24,5%
29,6%
23,2%
27,8%
21,6%
25,9%
19,9%
25,9%
20,2%
25,9%
20,0%
25,3%
19,8%
23,2%
18,4%
24,1%
19,2%
23,9%
19,1%
25,6%
20,3%
26,1%
21,3%
26,1%
21,5%
26,7%
22,6%
25,8%
22,2%
27,3%
23,9%
26,7%
23,1%
34,4%
34,2%
33,1%
32,5%
33,1%
29,3%
28,0%
28,8%
28,8%
29,2%
29,6%
31,4%
30,9%
30,6%
30,6%
29,8%
30,2%
30,5%
30,5%
29,7%
29,1%
28,7%
28,3%
26,6%
27,5%
27,9%
29,0%
29,8%
29,5%
29,1%
33,0%
32,8%
31,5%
31,0%
31,5%
27,8%
27,7%
28,9%
28,9%
29,8%
29,9%
31,1%
30,4%
29,7%
30,0%
29,2%
30,5%
30,5%
30,0%
29,1%
27,8%
26,8%
27,0%
26,6%
27,7%
28,8%
29,7%
31,4%
30,3%
-100,0%
15,7%
14,8%
14,7%
14,5%
15,6%
25,9%
26,0%
26,2%
25,2%
25,8%
27,0%
27,4%
26,4%
26,9%
26,3%
25,1%
24,8%
25,0%
24,7%
24,2%
22,9%
22,8%
22,9%
23,3%
24,4%
25,0%
26,0%
26,6%
27,0%
26,6%
15,6%
14,7%
14,5%
14,4%
15,4%
25,6%
25,7%
25,9%
25,0%
25,6%
26,9%
27,3%
26,3%
26,8%
26,2%
25,0%
24,7%
25,0%
24,7%
24,3%
23,0%
22,8%
22,9%
23,4%
24,4%
25,1%
26,2%
27,1%
27,5%
27,1%
87
Tabela 10: Sektorska struktura depozita u bankarskom sektoru (u milionima KM)
Godina
1
Depoziti opće
vlade
2
Depoziti
nefinancijskih
javnih
preduzeća
3
Depoziti
nefinancijskih
privatnih
preduzeća i
udruženja
4
Depoziti
preduzeća
ukupno
5=3+4
Depoziti
stanovništva
6
Ostali
depoziti
7
Depoziti
privatnog
sektora
8=9-2
Depoziti
Ukupno
9=2+5+6+7
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
1997
1997
1997
394,50
330,00
273,90
278,30
506,10
619,30
783,90
875,80
1062,70
1465,80
402,3
401,6
394,5
245,4
273,7
329,4
376,8
393,4
456,1
628,9
842,8
897,1
1116,1
261
264
245,4
350,1
477,2
554,2
481
690,6
727,3
701,7
992,9
1260,5
1578,1
279,6
295,8
350,1
595,5
750,9
883,6
857,8
1084
1183,4
1330,6
1835,7
2157,6
2694,2
540,6
559,8
595,5
273,4
446,9
404,8
522,5
1447,3
1621,3
1925,9
2489,1
3187,3
4101,1
220,1
225,2
273,4
119
134,6
257,6
295,1
233,4
300,2
325,5
377,9
468,7
577,8
94,2
99,8
119
987,90
1332,50
1546,00
1675,40
2764,60
3105,00
3582,10
4702,60
5813,60
7373,10
855,00
884,80
987,90
1382,4
1662,5
1819,9
1953,7
3270,7
3724,3
4366
5578,4
6876,3
8838,9
1257,3
1286,4
1382,4
I 2005
II 2005
III 2005
IV 2005
V 2005
VI 2005
VII 2005
VIII 2005
IX 2005
X 2005
XI 2005
XII 2005
I 2006
II 2006
III 2006
IV 2006
V 2006
VI 2006
VII 2006
VIII 2006
IX 2006
X 2006
XI 2006
XII 2006
I 2007
II 2007
III 2007
IV 2007
V 2007
VI 2007
872
863,50
807,80
822,60
847,70
906,10
955,7
993,10
1041,60
1078,30
1068,40
1062,70
1074,4
1176,8
1266,4
1224,1
1245,6
1281,6
1426,5
1457,6
1483,5
1550,8
1565,3
1465,8
1458,2
1534,5
1596,9
1653,7
1693,2
2917,7
873,8
879,3
884,7
885,4
935,2
843,5
858,8
883,9
864
905,4
901,8
897,1
929,8
938,1
965,3
1002,5
1105,1
1122,1
1058,1
1103,7
1086,4
1133,2
1140,6
1116,1
1166,1
1223,5
1229,3
1224,6
1265,6
1272,2
2523,7
2588,1
2657,8
2715,1
2784,6
2886,6
2923,5
2973,2
3038,2
3043,4
3091,9
3187,3
3250,5
3326,9
3386,7
3455,6
3517,9
3620,6
3687,7
3748
3799,9
3856,3
3943,4
4101,1
4186,5
4277
4339,9
4435,5
4514,3
4606,6
383,4
382,4
387,2
363,6
372,7
378,6
401,5
407,5
420
433,9
454,4
468,7
482,7
474,8
485
472,1
483,8
473,6
590,7
508,9
549,4
565,2
585,1
577,8
599
590,5
635,8
632,7
673,2
629,7
4757,40
4761,30
4860,90
4904,30
5070,50
5111,20
5219,70
5376,00
5446,00
5531,20
5609,00
5813,60
5820,80
5840,00
5997,20
6141,00
6273,00
6402,80
6686,60
6758,30
6926,60
7061,20
7173,60
7373,10
7508,60
7654,30
7756,50
7941,20
8156,20
8271,80
5629,4
5624,8
5668,7
5726,9
5918,2
6017,3
6175,4
6369,1
6487,6
6609,5
6677,4
6876,3
6895,2
7016,8
7263,6
7365,1
7518,6
7684,4
8113,1
8215,9
8410,1
8612
8738,9
8838,9
8966,8
9188,8
9353,4
9594,9
9849,4
11189,5
I 2005
II 2005
III 2005
IV 2005
V 2005
VI 2005
VII 2005
VIII 2005
IX 2005
X 2005
XI 2005
XII 2005
I 2006
II 2006
III 2006
IV 2006
V 2006
VI 2006
VII 2006
VIII 2006
IX 2006
X 2006
XI 2006
XII 2006
I 2007
II 2007
III 2007
IV 2007
V 2007
VI 2007
23,8%
22,8%
6,3%
5,1%
10,7%
11,3%
19,7%
16,0%
20,8%
23,3%
17,6%
21,3%
23,2%
36,3%
56,8%
48,8%
46,9%
41,4%
49,3%
46,8%
42,4%
43,8%
46,5%
37,9%
35,7%
30,4%
26,1%
35,1%
35,9%
127,7%
28,2%
20,0%
13,0%
7,6%
8,9%
6,3%
0,4%
1,8%
2,2%
10,5%
5,4%
6,4%
6,4%
6,7%
9,1%
13,2%
18,2%
33,0%
23,2%
24,9%
25,7%
25,2%
26,5%
24,4%
25,4%
30,4%
27,3%
22,2%
14,5%
13,4%
976,6
1850,4
911,5
1790,8
931,1
1815,8
940,1
1825,5
978
1913,2
1002,4
1845,9
1036
1894,8
1111,3
1995,2
1123,9
1987,9
1148,5
2053,9
1160,9
2062,7
1260,5
2157,6
1157,9
2087,7
1100,4
2038,5
1160,2
2125,5
1210,8
2213,3
1166,2
2271,3
1186,4
2308,5
1350
2408,1
1397,6
2501,3
1491
2577,4
1506,6
2639,8
1504,5
2645,1
1578,1
2694,2
1557
2723,1
1563,3
2786,8
1551,5
2780,8
1648,5
2873,1
1703,2
2968,8
1763,3
3035,5
godišnja stopa rasta (%)
41,2%
34,8%
34,7%
27,1%
35,3%
23,4%
37,4%
21,1%
36,3%
21,3%
30,3%
18,1%
30,1%
14,7%
33,7%
17,4%
30,7%
16,6%
32,0%
21,5%
15,0%
10,6%
27,0%
17,5%
18,6%
12,8%
20,7%
13,8%
24,6%
17,1%
28,8%
21,2%
19,2%
18,7%
18,4%
25,1%
30,3%
27,1%
25,8%
25,4%
32,7%
29,7%
31,2%
28,5%
29,6%
28,2%
25,2%
24,9%
34,5%
30,4%
42,1%
36,7%
33,7%
30,8%
36,1%
29,8%
46,0%
30,7%
48,6%
31,5%
29,2%
30,1%
28,6%
27,8%
29,8%
30,7%
30,4%
29,7%
30,2%
29,5%
30,2%
28,1%
28,8%
28,5%
27,4%
27,3%
26,3%
25,4%
26,1%
26,1%
25,1%
26,7%
27,5%
28,7%
28,8%
28,6%
28,1%
28,4%
28,3%
27,2%
22,3%
19,3%
20,2%
12,8%
15,4%
7,5%
10,5%
9,2%
19,9%
20,0%
28,5%
24,0%
25,9%
24,2%
25,3%
29,8%
29,8%
25,1%
47,1%
24,9%
30,8%
30,3%
28,8%
23,3%
24,1%
24,4%
31,1%
34,0%
39,1%
33,0%
30,7%
28,0%
25,9%
24,0%
25,4%
24,0%
22,6%
23,2%
24,1%
25,6%
22,1%
23,6%
22,4%
22,7%
23,4%
25,2%
23,7%
25,3%
28,1%
25,7%
27,2%
27,7%
27,9%
26,8%
29,0%
31,1%
29,3%
29,3%
30,0%
29,2%
29,6%
27,2%
22,7%
20,9%
23,0%
21,9%
22,1%
22,0%
23,5%
25,3%
21,4%
23,3%
22,5%
24,7%
28,1%
28,6%
27,0%
27,7%
31,4%
29,0%
29,6%
30,3%
30,9%
28,5%
30,0%
31,0%
28,8%
30,3%
31,0%
45,6%
Izvor: Centralna banka BiH
88
Tabela 11: Prosječne aktivne i pasivne kamatne stope
Kamatne na kratkororčne kredite u
Kamate na dugoročne kredite u KM
KM
Privatna
preduzeća
K1 2002
K2 2002
K3 2002
K4 2002
K1 2003
K2 2003
K3 2003
K4 2003
K1 2004
K2 2004
K3 2004
K4 2004
K1 2005
K2 2005
K3 2005
K4 2005
K1 2006
K2 2006
K3 2006
K4 2006
K1 2007
K2 2007
Izvor: Centralna banka
13,25
12,98
12,36
12,19
11,40
11,04
10,51
10,52
10,54
10,33
10,15
10,10
9,95
9,85
9,56
9,08
8,44
8,20
7,77
7,65
7,47
7,14
BiH
Stanovništvo
10,28
10,28
10,60
10,37
9,93
9,48
9,97
9,62
9,23
9,48
9,41
9,39
Privatna
preduzeća
11,41
11,03
10,26
10,61
10,65
9,98
9,26
9,00
9,36
8,85
8,77
8,79
8,50
8,23
8,14
7,75
8,01
8,07
8,16
7,75
8,04
7,56
Stanovništvo
10,99
10,92
10,59
10,45
10,39
10,09
10,04
9,75
9,49
9,48
9,47
9,19
Kamate na depozite po viñenju u
KM
Privatna
preduzeća
0,58
0,56
0,55
0,49
0,44
0,44
0,39
0,38
0,37
0,36
0,36
0,36
Stanovništvo
1,67
1,37
1,30
1,47
1,27
1,15
1,04
1,01
1,29
0,85
0,85
0,80
0,77
0,70
0,69
0,61
0,56
0,50
0,41
0,49
0,43
0,42
Kamate na štedne depozite u
KM
Privatna
preduzeća
2,84
3,07
3,06
3,51
3,32
3,48
3,61
3,68
4,02
3,94
3,25
3,46
Stanovništvo
4,81
4,54
4,40
4,36
4,19
4,28
4,19
3,45
3,64
3,50
3,79
3,96
3,81
3,49
3,37
3,59
3,59
3,65
3,86
3,56
3,50
3,48
89
Tabela 12: Uvoz i izvoz roba u BiH
UVOZ I IZVOZ DOBARA KLASIFIKOVANI
PREMA HARMONIZOVANOM SISTEMU
KODOVA
1
UKUPNO
ŽIVOTINJE I PROIZVODI
ŽIVOTINJSKOG PORIJEKLA
2 PROIZVODI BILJNOG PORIJEKLA
3
4
5
6
MASTI I ULJA ŽIVOTINJSKOG
PORIJEKLA I BILJNOG PORIJEKLA
PREHRAMBENE PRERAðEVINE
PROIZVODI MINERALNOG
PORIJEKLA
INDUSTRIJE ILI SRODNIH
INDUSTRIJA
PLASTIČNE MASE, GUMA I
KAUČUK
7
8 KOŽA I KRZNO
9
DRVO I PROIZVODI OD DRVETA
CELULOZA, PAPIR I KARTON I
10 NJIHOVI PROIZVODI
11 TEKSTIL I TEKSTILNI PROIZVODI
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
OBUĆA, ŠEŠIRI, KAPE I SLIČNI
PROIZVODI
CEMENTA I SLIČNIH MATERIJALA,
KERAMIČKI PROIZVODI, STAKLO I
NJIHOVI PROIZVODI, DRAGO I
POLUDRAGO KAMENJE
BAZNI METALI I PROIZVODI OD
BAZNIH METALA
MAŠINE, APARATI, MEHANIČKI I
ELEKTRIČNI UREðAJI
TRANSPORTNA SREDSTVA I
NJIHOVI DIJELOVI I PRIBOR
SATOVI, MJERNI, MUZIČKI I
MEDICINSKI INSTRUMENTI
ORUŽJE I MUNICIJA; NJIHOVI
DIJELOVI I PRIBOR
20 Izvoz robe; RAZNI PROIZVODI
KOLEKCIONARSKI PREDMETI I
21 ANTIKVITETI
98 NERAZVRSTANO
IZVOZ
P1 2006
P1 2005
P1 2007
u 000 KM
%
promjena
P1 07/ P1
u%
06
100%
18,5%
u 000 KM
1.756.925
u%
100%
u 000 KM
2.417.058
u%
100%
12.980
1%
18.540
1%
22.573
1%
15.405
1%
13.985
1%
19.105
7.657
54.859
0%
3%
10.437
62.945
0%
3%
251.270
14%
272.455
133.887
8%
26.199
33.452
UZVOZ
P1 2006
P1 2005
P1 2007
u 000 KM
4.844.573
u%
100%
u 000 KM
5.002.465
u%
100%
22%
134.035
3%
101.846
2%
117.894
2%
16%
1%
37%
227.924
5%
217.563
4%
285.545
4%
31%
17.304
75.079
1%
3%
66%
19%
38.849
482.751
1%
10%
38.588
517.662
1%
10%
46.842
572.079
1%
9%
21%
11%
11%
246.477
9%
-10%
693.852
14%
845.813
17%
924.431
14%
9%
201.902
8%
147.435
5%
-27%
466.124
10%
492.309
10%
614.081
10%
25%
1%
2%
42.861
46.816
2%
2%
72.525
63.665
3%
2%
69%
36%
208.015
65.777
4%
1%
219.210
126.166
4%
3%
309.394
125.083
5%
2%
41%
-1%
168.292
10%
195.255
8%
266.645
9%
37%
47.827
1%
50.338
1%
78.010
1%
55%
37.368
2%
43.697
2%
53.722
2%
23%
147.196
3%
147.111
3%
170.566
3%
16%
72.270
4%
107.955
4%
129.205
5%
20%
246.947
5%
271.405
5%
321.785
5%
19%
58.763
3%
139.015
6%
177.101
6%
27%
81.888
2%
88.685
2%
105.096
2%
19%
14.518
1%
17.958
1%
35.610
1%
98%
123.148
3%
118.587
2%
167.575
3%
41%
128
0%
365
0%
854
0%
134%
2.426
0%
4.097
0%
5.609
0%
37%
452.066
26%
670.287
28%
863.263
30%
29%
486.654
10%
488.584
10%
833.574
13%
71%
252.508
14%
307.791
13%
368.085
13%
20%
837.841
17%
754.829
15%
1.080.098
17%
43%
42.725
2%
49.737
2%
50.208
2%
1%
387.792
8%
369.973
7%
470.602
7%
27%
7.973
0%
6.582
0%
8.204
0%
25%
61.171
1%
53.661
1%
78.870
1%
47%
23.033
1%
14.536
1%
18.664
1%
28%
3.751
0%
1.969
0%
2.451
0%
24%
89.128
5%
192.672
8%
229.196
8%
19%
89.205
2%
92.497
2%
132.467
2%
43%
729
0%
753
0%
245
0%
-67%
539
0%
217
0%
816
0%
276%
1.712
0%
512
0%
69
0%
-87%
10.862
0%
1.360
0%
503
0%
-63%
2.865.232
u 000 KM
%
promjena
P1 07/ P1
u%
06
100%
28,8%
6.443.371
Source: Central Bank of BiH
90
Tabela 13: Glavni trgovinski partneri BiH
Zemlj
e
HRVATSK
A
ITALIJ
A
NJEMAČK
A
SLOVENIJ
A
SRBIJA
*
AUSTRIJ
A
MAðARSK
A
SRBIJA
i CRNA
GORA*
CRNA
SAD
GORA
*Total prvih
10
Source:
Agency for Statistics of BiH
izvo
z
I-VI
I-VI
I-VI
2007
2007
551.88 2006
123,
5
5
408.34
112,
5
8
385.64
119,
4
2
327.39
109,
9
6 0,0
262.07
0
187.54
130,
0
2
110.81
142,
473.56
325,
0
80,0
60.13
59.63
48,
4
5
218
2.427.0
26
%
uvo
z I-VI
I-VI
I-VI
2007
20074
1.037.4 2006
125,
58579.48
0
134,
5
2
762.27
117,
4
898,
380.84
9
50,0
544.46
0
240.30
129,
3
2
213.30
129,
4
522,
104.15
5 9.75
10,0
128.29
121,
8
9
1 24
4.000.3
45
%
P1
P1 2007/P1
2007
2006
Defici učešće u ukupna
trg
def
uk
t
trgovina
07/06 07/06
def
920
1.589.3
27
25
%
43987.83
%
-485.57
324
143
%
25
%
0
%16
-171.14
714
1.147.9
%
18
376.63
%
18
101
708.24
-%
%3%
%
8
38%
- 53.45
535
806.53
0%
0%
282.39
%
0
100
427.84
26
30
%
3
%
- 52.76
194
324.11
19
%
34
102.49
%58
8
177.71
-%
-%
30.59
569.89
83%
50.37
-%
76%
0%
0%
-6
130
187.93
95%
2
68.66
%
4
484%
18%
6.427.3
22
36
1.573.31
71
%
%
91
Table14: BALANCE OF PAYMENTS OF BIH
Reported in million BAM
2003
2004
2005
2006
2006 H1
2007 H1
2007 H1/
2006 H1
I – CURRENT ACCOUNT (1+2+3+4)
-2,813.9
-2,822.6
-3,357.5
-2,041.3
-799.7
-1,284.8
61%
1. GOODS
-7,180.0
-7,192.7
-7,83.3
-6,661.2
-2,818.7
-3,639.2
29%
Exports of goods, fob
2,548.4
3,279.8
4,082.3
5,255.8
2,465.7
2,888.9
17%
Imports of goods, fob
-9,728.5
-10,472.5
-11,916.7
-11,917.0
-5,284.4
-6,528.1
24%
581.0
678.4
773.9
949.9
472.8
557.8
18%
Exports
1,244.4
1,361.4
1,500.5
1,736.7
772.8
877.8
14%
Imports
-663.5
-683.0
-726.6
-786.8
-300.0
-320.0
7%
76.7
81.0
109.2
142.0
65.6
81.8
25%
-291.0
-307.8
-316.0
-324.9
-145.3
-151.2
4%
2.3. Travel, exports
651.2
760.3
808.2
918.9
415.6
448.3
8%
2.4. Travel, imports
-184.1
-186.7
-194.5
-244.0
-55.5
-63.6
15%
2.5. Other services, exports
516.5
520.1
583.1
675.8
291.6
347.7
19%
2.6. Other services, imports
-188.4
-188.6
-216.1
-217.8
-99.2
-105.2
6%
2. SERVICES
2.1.Transportation services, exports
2.2. Transportation services, imports
3. INCOME
925.0
760.3
712.2
720.5
263.1
365.3
39%
Credit
1,132.7
1,015.8
1,021.3
1,071.7
446.8
532.7
19%
Debit
-207.7
-255.6
-309.1
-351.1
-183.8
-167.4
-9%
3.1.Compensation of employees, credit
1,029.9
914.7
898.1
869.4
363.1
383.5
6%
3.2. Compensation of employees, debit
-18.2
-21.0
-19.3
-21.1
-10.4
-10.7
3%
102.8
-189.5
101.1
-234.6
123.2
-289.8
202.3
-330.0
83.7
-173.4
149.2
-156.7
78%
-10%
3.3.Investment income, credit
3.4. Investment income, debit
4. CURRENT TRANSFERS
2,860.1
2,931.4
2,990.7
2,949.4
1,283.1
1,431.3
12%
3,072.8
3,261.1
3,305.1
3,300.4
1,449.0
1,607.3
11%
-212.7
-329.7
-314.4
-350.9
-165.9
-176.0
6%
2,290.4
2,181.5
2,671.6
1,247.6
663.4
1,095.9
65%
804.5
679.8
645.8
532.4
237.2
249.6
5%
Credit
804.5
679.8
645.8
532.4
237.2
249.6
5%
Debit
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1,485.8
1,501.6
2,025.7
715.3
426.2
846.3
660.3
1,041.9
820.7
660.6
352.3
1,756.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-2.2
1,141.5
1,136.4
1,943.4
1,259.2
518.1
-460.2
-189%
Assets (sign "minus" means increase)
173.4
528.5
824.4
548.3
371.5
-1.082.0
-391%
Liabilities
968.1
607.8
1,119.0
710.9
146.7
621.8
324%
-316.0
-676.7
-738.3
-1,204.5
-444.2
-447.5
1%
523.5
641.1
685.9
793.6
136.3
188.9
39%
Credit
Debit
II – CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL
ACCOUNT (1+2)
1. CAPITAL ACCOUNT
2. FINANCIAL ACCOUNT
2.1. DIRECT INVESTMENT
2.2.PORTFOLIO INVESTMENT
2.3.OTHER INVESTMENT
2.4.RESERVE ASSETS (sign "minus"
means increase)
III – NET ERRORS AND OMMISSIONS
Source: Central Bank of BiH
92
99%
398%
-