Media Times

Media Times
Fortnightly update on Indian media and entertainment industry
Abneesh Roy
Sharad Todi, CFA
Kartik Gaba
+91-22-6620 3141
+91-22-6623 3481
+91-22-6620 3026
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
November 24, 2008
Contents
Key
y highlights/developments
g g
p
TV broadcasting
Advertising snapshot – Retail (Jan-Oct), OTC (Jan-Sep)
News Channels: most covered events
Sun TV: viewership share in Tamil market
Relative share of genres
Relative share of channel viewership and TV ratings
P i t
Print
Advertising snapshot – Jan-Sep 2008, OTC
Newsprint prices
Multiplexes/movies
Movie pipeline and box office collections
Radio
Ratings of FM stations
Internet
Top daily page views
Forthcoming events
Valuations
Performance of media stocks
2
Key highlights/developments
Broadcasting/TV content
In the absence of no fresh content on Hindi GECs, Star Plus’ and Zee TV’s GRPs in week
46 were 155 and 118, respectively. Colors became No.1 channel as it continued to air
Big Boss.
Genre Check: Hindi GECs drop
p 7% in repeat
p
week;; movies and sports
p
gain.
g
Star Pravah ropes in HUL and Idea, prior to channel launch.
66.5 mn cable and satellite (C&S) homes in India: IRS
TV-18 gets FIPB approval to launch regional news channels.
The number of C&S homes in India has increased 26%, to 67 mn, according to the
latest IRS.
News channels spend highest time on crime stories – During the review period, news
channels dedicated 29% of their coverage time on such kind of content.
Star Plus is all set to replace Kyunki Saas Bhi… with a reality show hosted by Kiran Bedi.
Asianet News plans to acquire an English general news channel and a vernacular
newspaper in South India, together for nearly INR 2 bn.
Trai: No entry for states,
states political parties,
parties religious bodies into broadcasting,
broadcasting to ensure
that the medium is used for advancing public interest.
TDSAT has issued notice to sports broadcaster ESPN for allegedly not providing its
channels to Sun Direct, the direct-to-home (DTH) venture of South India-based Sun TV
group.
group
The latest analysis by Media Partners Asia (MPA) shows revenue growth projection for
broadcasting firms is likely to come down 17 percentage points, to 26% in 2009,
3
compared with 2008.
Key highlights/developments
STAR Jupiter Entertainment will hold majority interest in Asianet Communications, which
currently broadcasts GECs in Kannada (Suvarna), Telugu (Sitara), and Malayalam
(Asianet and Asianet Plus).
Kapoors may not buy Star out of Balaji; agreed price of INR 190/share, way above
current price of INR 66.
UTV scales down investments in broadcasting by over INR 2 bn; phases out Delhi
operations.
ESPN-STAR Sports wins 10-year right for Champions League T20 at USD 975 mn; facing
difficulties in getting advertisers and is likely to miss INR 3 bn ad revenue target.
target
Mumbai-based news channel up for sale; expects bids above INR 200 mn.
Sun TV continues to dominate viewership ratings with 51.8% market share.
Walt Disney has increased its stake in UTV by 22.7% in an open offer to take its total
holding in the company to 60%.
New IPTV norms to allow instant TRP.
NDTV lines up special shows to cover elections.
Zee News ties up with One97 to provide news on mobile.
UTV Movies to launch in the US on DirecTV in January 2009.
TAM sharpens content tracking of channels with News Content Track.
4
Key highlights/developments
TV distribution
DTH operators introduce personal video recorders that allow viewers to rewind or record
a program while watching another.
WWIL plans to invest INR 6.5 bn over the next two years even as it wants to
aggressively pursue Headend
In The Sky (HITS) in its business model.
Headend-In-The-Sky
model
Tata Sky sells close to 3 mn set-top boxes.
Dish TV, which garnered 0.4 mn subscribers in October (taking its total customer base to
4.4 mn customers), is offering set-top box (STB) at INR 1,490, along with multiple
monthly packs in the range of INR 99 – 275.
Dish TV eyes profit in Q2FY10, garners 4.5 mn viewers.
Ogilvy & Mather (O&M) has bagged creative contract for Tata Sky and Tata Sky Plus.
Di h TV rights
i ht issue
i
t
h launch
l
h – promoters
t
ill h
h up ~INR
INR 3 b
Dish
sett ffor tough
will
have tto cough
bn iin
the first tranche to support the rights issue, if it devolves completely.
Government plans to hike the FDI limit to 74% for DTH.
Broadcasters and MSOs lock horns over non-payment of carriage fees.
Big TV apes telecom model for retail sale of DTH via recharge vouchers has put in place
a network of close to 100,000 outlets, spread over 10,000 towns, including outlets like
local grocery stores, gift stores, and utility stores.
C bl operators iin Mumbai
b i act against
i
i
f
i
Cable
NDTV on carriage
fee
issue.
5
Key highlights/developments
Movie production/distribution
Hyderabad-based DQ Entertainment (DQE) has bagged contracts of USD 94.4 mn to be
executed over 30 months.
Shemaroo Entertainment has licensed 70 titles from Studio Canal, a subsidiary of the
French Pay TV Group Canal+.
Canal+
The Walt Disney Co. has forged a five-movie deal with Imax Corp.
Exhibition
Big Cinemas, part of Adlabs Films, has opened its first cinema in Coimbatore in Tamil
Nadu.
Radio
di
Radio industry experts believe that radio could generate revenues of INR 300 mn from
political advertising during the upcoming political season.
6
Key highlights/developments
Outdoor/internet/other
Western Railways (WR) calls OOH players for 7-year contract; minimum bid amount over
INR 2.8 bn.
The Essel Group has announced that the Indian Cricket League (ICL) online application,
which was developed in association with Games2Win (G2W) on the social network Orkut,
Orkut
is played more than 6,500 times a day.
Citi Venture Capital International-owned You Telecom India plans to pump in INR 4 bn
over the next two years to expand its cable TV and broadband business.
India is one of the biggest untapped gaming market in the world; industry bodies
estimate that it would reach USD 425 mn by 2010.
Anshu Jain picks 15% in Mukesh Ambani's Mumbai Indians in personal capacity.
Yahoo Inc said Jerry Yang will step down as chief executive as soon as the board finds a
replacement, giving hopes the departure would clear way for a deal with Microsoft.
New IPTV norms to allow instant TRP.
Reliance Communications partners ZMQ to develop mobile games; Zee News ties up with
One97 to provide news on mobile.
HT Media launches new mobile solutions venture, forms JV with Velti Plc.
National Geographic is entering the video game business.
OOH Media ties up with Inorbit Mall in Vashi to provide digital screens.
screens
Times Now goes live on Nautanki.tv from November 19.
7
Broadcasters v/s content producers
Nov 7: Production houses shutdown fresh content production, following a strike by
Federation of Western India Cine Employees (FWICE), demanding higher wages and
better working conditions.
Nov 10: Hindi GECs chalk out plans for old shows, heading towards a zero-hour of fresh
programming
p
g
g from November 10,, 2008.
Nov 11: Hindi GECs stay firm; impasse continues.
Nov 16: Advertisers continue to extend support to broadcasters, not asking for rate
cuts.
Nov 17: TV workers may settle for marginal hike.
Nov 18: FWICE and producers have been summoned by the labour commissioner.
Nov 19: TV strike called off.
Nov 20:
N
20 Two
T
associations
i i
continue
i
TV strike
ik - Western
W
I di Motion
India
M i
Pi
Picture
& TV Sound
S
d
Engineers' Association and the Cine, Costume, Make-Up Artistes & Hair Dressers
Association.
Nov 20: Sound Recordists’ association calls off strike.
Nov 21: Workers wage MoU scrapped, strike continues.
Nov 22: Strike continues, GECs could be asked for compensation by advertisers due to
loss of viewership.
Nov 24:
N
24 Production
P d ti
h
houses,
such
h as Balaji,
B l ji Creative
C
ti
E
Eye,
Di
Director’s
t ’ Kut,
K t BAG Films,
Fil
and
d
Play Time Creations among others resume production.
8
Retail sector advertising on TV during Jan-Oct 08 - AdEx
Retail sector advertising on TV has grown 40% during Jan-Oct 2008, Y-o-Y.
It peaked during the third quarter due to festive months.
Independent retailers had the maximum share of 89%, followed by display retail shops
and other retail categories with 11% and 0.2% share, respectively.
Pantaloons
P
t l
(10%)
(10%), The
Th Chennai
Ch
i Silks
Silk Group
G
(6%),
(6%) and
d Subhiksha
S bhik h T
Trading
di
S
Service
i (5%)
were the top three advertisers.
Retail sector advertising on regional and national channels was at 73:27.
Tamil Nadu,, Kerala,, and Andhra Pradesh together
g
accounted for 76% .
9
OTC sector advertising during Jan-Sep 08 - AdEx
OTC advertising in television
TV advertising in OTC products, up 15% Y-o-Y during Jan-Sep 2008.
Balms, analgesics, and cough lozenges lead the categories.
Reckitt Benckiser (13%), Smithkline Beecham (13%), and Paras Pharmaceuticals (8%)
were
e e the top three
th ee advertisers.
ad e tise s
Clearasil Ultra, Eno Digesure, and Mankind Kaloree 1 were the top three new brands.
Advertising of OTC sector on regional and national channels was at 54:46.
OTC advertising in print media
22% growth in print advertising of OTC sector during Jan-Sep 2008 over Jan-Sep 2007.
Range of OTC Products’ had the maximum share of overall OTC sector print ad pie
during Jan-Sep 2008.
‘Mankind Kaloree 1’ was the top new brand of OTC sector in Print during Jan-Sep 2008.
‘Ratan Ayurvedic Sansthan’ with 8% share was at number one position followed by
‘Multani
Multani Pharmaceuticals
Pharmaceuticals’ and ‘Mankind
Mankind Pharma
Pharma’, with 6% and 4% share,
share respectively.
respectively
Maharashtra had the maximum share of 20%, followed by Uttar Pradesh and Madhya
Pradesh, with16% and 7% share of OTC sector advertising in print during Jan-Sep 2008.
10
Relative viewership share of genres on TV in CY08
(%)
Channel
Past 4 weeks
eeks
Week 45
Week 46
Gain/Loss
Hindi General Entertainment
24.3
25.6
19.7
(5.9)
South Regional Channels
0.3
19.3
17.9
18.2
Hindi Movie Channels
9.5
9.3
10.7
1.4
Sports Channels
4.8
4.7
6.0
1.3
Kids Channels
5.0
4.8
5.3
0.5
Hindi News Channels
4.2
4.2
4.4
0.2
Music Channels
1.8
1.8
1.8
0.0
English Movie Channels
0.8
0.6
0.9
0.3
Infotainment Channels
0.8
0.8
0.9
0.0
English News Channels
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.0
g
Business News Channels
English
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.0
Hindi Business News Channels
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.0
English Entertainment Channels
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.0
28.5
29.0
31.0
2.0
Others - including other regional channels
Source: Industry, Edelweiss research
The share of Hindi GECs decreased; but South regional channels have seen an increase.
Production houses going on a strike and halting the flow of fresh content is the primary
reason for a drop in viewership of GECs.
The share of sports genre has increased due to telecast of India v/s England cricket
series.
11
News channels spend highest time on crime stories - TAM
Topic-wise breakup of time dedicated
Mishaps
Astrology 3%
3%
Others
10%
Top stories
Crime
30%
Sporitual
3%
Social
3%
Business
4%
Financial
7%
Entertainment
11%
Sports
13%
Political
13%
Source: Industry, Edelweiss research
%
Time spent
Delhi bomb blasts
6.6
115:13:26
Border Gavaskar Series '08
4.3
74:03:48
Bollywood updates
3.3
57:21:48
Astrology
3.3
57:05:13
Shootout in Delhi
3.0
51:34:40
Australia's tour of India
2.9
49:41:01
Indian market updates
2.3
40:39:20
Comedy programs
2.2
37:24:24
MNS workers activities outside local stations
2.1
36:26:22
Preport on blasts in India
2.0
34:41:58
Source: Industry, Edelweiss research
Based
B
d on a study
t d conducted
d t d by
b TAM between
b t
S
Sep 14 and
d Oct
O t 24,
24 2008,
2008 it was found
f
d that
th t
crime, law, and order reign as the top content in news channels.
The study covers Hindi channels Aaj Tak and Star News and English channels Times Now
and NDTV 24X7.
Delhi bomb blasts were covered for the longest duration, followed by the India-Australia
cricket series.
12
Sun TV dominates Tamil TV market
TV Channels
Viewership
p Share
Sun TV
51.8
Kalaignar TV
8.6
KTV
7.5
Vijay TV
6.4
Pothigai TV (DD)
5.7
Sun Music
4.3
Jaya TV
4.2
Sun News
2.6
Makkal TV
1.1
Raj TV
0.9
Others
6.9
Source: Industry, Edelweiss research
Sun TV commands a 51.8% market share.
Closest competitor,
competitor Kalaignar TV (8
(8.6%
6% market share),
share) was launched last year by
relatives of Chief Minister M Karunanidhi.
More than 3,000 correspondents were interviewed.
Survey also shows that Sun TV was dominant among the 18-25 age group with a viewer
base of 44.4%, while Vijay TV was second with 19.7%
The channel is also a leader in providing entertainment programs, launching new
programs, and in giving intellectual programs among others
Survey also revealed that serials continue to lead the genre table,
table followed by news,
news
movies, and comedy programs.
13
Hindi GEC genre: Viewership share
ership (%)
Viewe
45
36
27
18
9
Star Plus
Sahara One
DD1
Zee TV
Star One
9X
Sony
Sab
NDTV Imagine
Week 40
W
Week 33
W
Week 26
W
Week 19
W
Week 12
W
Week 5
Week 50
W
Week 43
W
Week 36
W
Week 29
W
Week 22
W
Week 15
W
Week 8
Week 1
0
Colors
Star Utsav
Zee Next
Source: Industry, Edelweiss research
In week 46, Balika Vadhu and Jai Shri Krishna, which were the top 2 programs, clocked
TVRs of 5.8 and 3.1, respectively.
Colors has reached the top spot with a viewership share of 21.9%, with Star Plus and
Zee TV following with 17.1% and 13.1% respectively.
Star Plus had three programmes in top 5 in week 46, whereas Colors had two.
14
Hindi GEC genre: Recent trend in GRPs
320
276
232
188
144
Star Plus
Zee TV
Week 4
46
Week 4
45
Week 4
44
Week 4
43
Week 4
42
Week 4
41
Week 4
40
Week 3
39
Week 3
38
Week 3
37
100
Colors
Source: Industry, Edelweiss research
In week 46, Star Plus reported GRPs of 155, whereas Zee TV reported GRPs of 118.
Colors took the lead by reporting 199 GRPs.
In week 45, total GEC GRPs increased from 1,064 to 1,203, with Star Plus leading at
316 followed
316,
f ll
d by
b Colors
C l
and
d Zee
Z
TV att 250 and
d 207,
207 respectively.
ti l
However, in week 46 GRPs for the genre plummeted due to re-runs of programs because
of a halt in fresh content production.
15
Top 10 programmes for week 45
Top 10 shows for week 45
Channel
Programme
TVR
Colors
Balika Vadhu
5.5
Bidayi
5.4
Jai Shri Krishna
4.0
Kyunki Saas Bhi Kabhi
3.7
SaReGaMaPa Challenge 2009
3.6
Star Plus
Raja Ki Aayegi Baarat
3.0
Star Plus
Star Plus
Colors
Star Plus
Zee TV
Kis Desh Main Hai Mera Dil
2.9
Zee TV
Kasamh Se
2.8
Sun TV
Kolangal
2.5
Tujh Sang Preet Lagayi Sajana
2.4
Star Plus
Source: Industry, Edelweiss research
In week 45, Star Plus had five serials in top 10, followed by Colors and Zee TV which
had two serials each in top 10.
16
Number of programmes in top 100 for GEC space
Star Plus
Bidayii
Bid
Zee TV
SaReGaMaPa
S
R G M P Ch
Challenge
ll
2009
Colors
Balika
B
lik V
Vadhu
dh
Kyunki Ssaas Bhi Kabhi
Kasamh Se
Jai Shri Krishna
Raja Ki Aayegi Baraat
Betiyaan Ghar Ki Lakshmi Big Boss 2
Kis Desh Main Hai Mera Dil
Maayka
48
36
24
Big Boss 2 - Aap Ka Faisla
Tujh Sang Preet Lagayi Sajna Saath Phere
Bandhan Saath Janmon Ka
Nach Baliye 4
Jeevan Saathi Humsafar
Zindagi
12
Star Plus
Sun TV
Zee TV
Week 43
W
Week 40
W
Week 37
W
Week 34
W
Week 31
W
Week 28
W
Week 25
W
Week 22
W
Week 19
W
Week 16
W
Week 13
W
Week 10
W
Week 7
Week 4
0
Week 1
(No. off Programmes)
60
Colors
Naagin
Prithviraj Chauhan
Banoo Main Teri Dulhan
Big Boss 2 - Aakhri Salaam
Saibaba
Ranbir Rano
Mohe Rang De
Hamari Devrani
Aladdin
Rahe Tera Aashirwaad
Baa Bahoo Aur Baby
Parrivaar
Santan
SaReGaMaPa Chal - 2009
Spotlight
Kayamath
ESBE
Grihasti
Rakhi
Source: Industry, Edelweiss research
Kumkum
Sangam
Karam Apna Apna
Star Voice of India 2
Kasturi
Source: Industry, Edelweiss research
Sun TV currently has the maximum number in top 100 on account of fragmentation in
Hindi GECs. However, number of Shows in top 100 have declined in the recent past.
Star Plus and Zee TV have seen a decrease in the number of programs in top 100.
Colors
l
h
has
nine programs in top 100, compared
d with
h Star Plus
l
and
d Zee TV, which
h h have
h
eighteen and thirteen programs respectively, thereby, running the risk of losing
viewership share if any of the programs witness a decline in popularity.
17
Hindi movies genre: Viewership share
ewership (%)
Vie
70
56
42
28
14
Max
Zee Cinema
Star Gold
Filmy
B4U Movies
Week 40
W
Week 33
W
Week 26
W
Week 19
W
Week 12
W
Week 5
Week 50
W
Week 43
W
Week 36
W
Week 29
W
Week 22
W
Week 15
W
Week 8
Week 1
0
UTV Movies
Source: Industry, Edelweiss research
Excluding cricket matches on Set Max, the competition between Zee Cinema and Set
Max has been stiff; both have been fighting for the No. 1 spot. Zee Cinema lost the No.1
position due to a decline in its viewership share, and had two programs in top 5 in week
46.
Set Max,
S
M
which
hi h had
h d three
h
programs in
i the
h top 5,
5 reached
h d the
h No.
N 1 position
ii
and
d saw an
improvement in its viewership share.
18
Hindi news genre: Viewership share
viewership (%)
v
30
24
18
12
6
Star News
Zee News
TEZ
Live India
Aaj Tak
IBN 7
Sahara Samay National
News 24
Week 40
Week 33
Week 26
Week 19
Week 12
Week 5
Week 50
Week 43
Week 36
Week 29
Week 22
Week 15
Week 8
Week 1
0
India TV
NDTV India
DD News
India News
Source: Industry, Edelweiss research
In week 46, Aaj Tak maintained its No.1 position and had one program in top 5.
India TV regained its No.2 position from Star News. It had one program in top 5 whereas
Star News had three.
Stiff competition
titi
persists
i t among the
th top
t
3 players.
l
19
English news genre: Viewership share
48.0
viewership (%)
38.4
28.8
19.2
9.6
NDTV 24x7
Times Now
CNN IBN
Headlines today
Week 4
40
Week 3
33
Week 2
26
Week 19
Week 12
Week
k5
Week 5
50
Week 4
43
Week 3
36
Week 2
29
Week 2
22
Week 15
Week
k8
Week
k1
0.0
News X
Source: Industry, Edelweiss research
In week 46, CNN IBN maintained its leadership position. It had three programs in top 5,
whereas NDTV 24x7 was the No.2 player with two programs.
Times Now slipped to the No.3 position.
20
Business news genre: Viewership share
Hindi
90
64
72
CNBC - TV18
NDTV-Profit
UTVi
Source: Industry, Edelweiss research
Awaaz
Week
k 40
Week
k 33
Week
k 26
Week
k 19
Week
k 12
Wee k 5
Week
k 50
Week
k 43
Week
k 36
Week
k 29
Week 4
40
Week 3
33
Week 2
26
Week 19
Week 12
Week
k5
Week 5
50
Week 4
43
Week 3
36
Week 2
29
0
Week 2
22
0
Week 15
18
Week
k8
16
Week
k 22
36
Week
k 15
32
54
Wee k 8
48
Wee k 1
ship (%)
viewers
80
Week
k1
viewe rship (%)
English
Zee Business
Source: Industry, Edelweiss research
The viewership gap between CNBC-TV 18 and NDTV Profit, which had narrowed over the
past few weeks, widened in week 46. In week 46, all top 5 programmes were on CNBC–
TV18.
UTVi’s market share has shown slight improvement.
The viewership gap between CNBC Awaaz and Zee Business has started narrowing.
However, all five programs in top 5 were by CNBC Awaaz.
21
Sports genre: Viewership share
90
hip (%)
viewersh
72
54
36
18
Star Sports
Zee Sports
Ten Sports
Neo Cricket
ESPN
Neo Sports
Wee
ek 40
Wee
ek 33
Wee
ek 26
Wee
ek 19
ek 12
Wee
Week 5
Wee
ek 50
Wee
ek 43
Wee
ek 36
Wee
ek 29
Wee
ek 22
ek 15
Wee
Week 8
Week 1
0
DD Sports
Star Cricket
Source: Industry, Edelweiss research
Neo Sports has maintained its No.1 position in the sports genre. It has been able to
maintain its share due to the India v/s England cricket series telecast.
We believe the increase in Zee Sports’ viewership share in the past few weeks is due to
telecasting of ICL.
22
Newsprint prices
Newsprint (30 lbs)
750
900
700
(USD
D/tonne)
1,000
800
700
600
650
600
550
8/1
1/2008
4/1
1/2008
12/1
1/2007
8/1
1/2007
4/1
1/2007
12/1
1/2006
8/1
1/2006
4/1
1/2006
12/1
1/2005
8/1
1/2005
4/1
1/2005
12/1
1/2004
8/1
1/2004
Oct--08
Apr--08
Oct--07
Apr--07
Oct--06
Apr--06
Oct--05
Apr--05
Oct--04
500
4/1
1/2004
500
Apr--04
(US
SD/tonne)
CIF Mumbai (Canadian newsprint)
Newsprint prices
Newsprint Prices
Source: Crisil research
Source: Bloomberg
Newsprint costs have risen significantly in the past ten months due to consolidation in
mills in the US, higher demand due to the Olympics in China, elections in the US,
gy costs,, and appreciation
pp
of the Canadian dollar against
g
USD.
increase in energy
However, we expect them to soften, going forward.
23
Strong pipeline of movies
Date
Banner/Prodcuer
Cast
The President is coming
Rohan Sippy, Ketan Prakash
Konkona Sen Sharma, Shernaz Patel, Ira Dubey, Vivek
Gomber, Satchit Puranik, Namit Das, Anand Tiwari, Shivani
Tanksale
Oye Lucky! Lucky Oye!
UTV Motion Pictures
Abhay Deol, Paresh Rawal, Neetu Chandra, Archana
Puran Singh
Sorry Bhai!
Puja Films, Anticlock Films,
Mumbai Mantra
Shabana Azmi, Boman Irani, Sanjay Suri, Sharman
Joshi, Chitrangda Singh
Dil Kabaddi
Studio 18
Rahul Bose, Irrfan Khan, Rahul Khanna, Konkona Sen Sharma,
Soha Ali Khan, Payal Rohatgi, Saba
Horn Ok Pleassss
Sunrise Pictures Pvt. Ltd.
Nana Patekar,, Rimi Sen,, Muzammil Ibrahim
Khallballi - Fun Unlimited
One More Thought Entertainment Pvt. Ltd.
Nikhil Dwivedi, Chunky Pandey, Rajpal Yadav, Suresh Menon
Maharathi
Shree Ashtavinayak Cinevision Ltd
Naseruddin Shah, Om Puri, Paresh Rawal, Boman Irani, Neha
Dhupia, Tara Sharma
Meerabai Not Out
Pritish Nandy Communications
Mandira Bedi, Anupam Kher, Eijaz Khan
Oh My
Oh,
M God!!
G d!!
Z
Zee
Li
Limelite
lit
Vi
Vinay
Pathak,
P th k Saurabh
S
bh Shukla,
Sh kl Divya
Di
Dutta
D tt
Wafa
True Life Production
Rajesh Khanna, Sudesh berry
Yash Raj Films
Shah Rukh Khan, Anushka Sharma, Kajol, Rani Mukharjee,
Priyanka Chopra, Priety Zinta, Vinay Pathak
28 Nov 08
28-Nov-08
5-Dec-08
12-Dec-08
Rab Ne Bana Di Jodi
Source: Industry
Industry, Edelweiss research
24
Recent box office collections and movie ratings
Collections till date
Film
Week
Domestic net total
(INR)
Total domestic gross
(INR)
USA gross (USD)
UK gross (GBP)
300,000
325,000
Golmaal Returns
2
Rs. 49,27,77,836
Rs. 74,20,72,169
Fashion (2008)
2
Rs. 26,01,48,880
Rs. 37,33,22,541
EMI
1
Rs. 4,46,82,307
Rs. 6,48,65,447
30,000
Ek Vivaah Aisa Bhi
1
Rs. 1,35,89,298
Rs. 2,00,48,242
5,000
Heroes
3
Rs. 11,00,81,073
Rs. 15,60,01,711
655,538
225,000
Roadside Romeo
3
Rs. 4,72,28,088
Rs. 6,81,72,545
40,000
70,500
Welcome to Sajjanpur
8
Rs. 11,35,54,573
Rs. 16,41,24,365
10
Rs. 11,27,57,308
Rs. 16,25,24,201
Karzzzz
4
Rs. 12,95,01,233
Rs. 19,60,78,993
Hello
5
Rs. 79,38,25,917
Rs. 13,09,15,018
A Wednesday
Source: Industry, Edelweiss research
as on November 16, 2008
Movie ratings by newspapers and web portals
Dasvidaniya
Dostana
Yuvvraaj
Quantum of
Solace
Death race
Mirrors
Times of India
3/5
4/5
3/5
2.5/5
3/5
2.5/5
Hindustan Times
2/5
3/5
2/5
3/5
2/5
1/5
2.5/5
2/5
1.5/5
2.5/5
3/5
2/5
3/5
3/5
1/5
3-5
n/a
1/5
Movie
Rediff
CNN-IBN
Source: Industry, Edelweiss research
25
Radio: Car listeners in Kolkata and Mumbai
Source: RAM, Edelweiss research
Source: RAM, Edelweiss research
Radio Mirchi dominates Kolkata, followed by Big FM. The third slot sees some intense
competition between Friends FM, Fever FM, Red FM, Amaar FM, and the Government
owned
d AIR FM2 – Gold.
G ld
Big FM leads in Mumbai, followed by Red FM, Radio City, Fever FM, AIR FM2 - Gold,
Radio Mirchi and Radio One closely contesting for the second slot.
26
Web portals: Trend of daily page views
Source: Alexa, Edelweiss research
27
Key forthcoming events
Broadcasting
ZNL planning to launch new channel in Andhra Pradesh.
Reliance ADA Group plans to launch 20 channels to supplement its DTH venture, Big TV.
Raj TV is planning to launch news channels in Telugu, Kannada, and Malayalam.
TV9 to launch five news and entertainment channels.
INX Media plans to roll out 10 channels by FY10E.
Print
The industry expects newsprint prices to peak and start declining in the next two
quarters.
Exhibition
PVR to commence operations at its Phoenix Mills multiplex shortly.
Distribution
FDI cap in DTH and HITS may rise to 74% from 49% (current).
Launch of DTH services by Videocon.
28
Valuations
Media stocks: Valuations
Company
Ratings
P/E (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
MCap/Sales (x)
CMP
M. Cap
(INR)
(INR mn)
FY08
FY09E
FY10E
FY08
FY09E
FY10E
FY08
FY09E
FY10E
PVR
Buy
89
2,056
10.2
9.9
7.8
6.1
3.2
2.9
0.8
0.6
0.4
Zee News
Buy
29
6,941
18.7
15.0
11.1
10.4
8.5
6.2
1.9
1.4
1.1
Zee Entertainment Enterprise
Accumulate
115
50,084
13.0
12.1
9.9
9.2
7.7
6.4
2.7
2.2
2.0
TV Today Network
Accumulate
53
3,089
7.0
6.6
5.6
2.4
1.6
0.9
1.3
1.1
0.9
Television Eighteen India*
Accumulate
61
7,337
80.5
19.8
18.2
4.1
3.9
4.1
1.8
2.1
1.8
Fame India
Reduce
16
539
3.8
163.5
12.0
6.8
7.3
6.3
0.6
0.4
0.3
Inox Leisure
Reduce
35
2,151
8.2
12.0
9.5
5.5
6.1
5.4
1.2
1.0
0.7
Deccan Chronicle
Not Rated
44
10,762
4.0
5.4
4.2
1.8
2.5
2.0
1.4
1.2
1.0
Source: Edelweiss research
* FY08 are consolidated and estimates are of news business only
Top Picks: Zee News, PVR, and Zee Entertainment Enterprises
Media stocks: Performance (% change)
Company
CMP
3Months
6Months
12Months
Fame India
16
(6.6)
(3.1)
(59.0)
(74.2)
(83.3)
115
4.6
(7.5)
(45.4)
(51.0)
(61.2)
Zee Entertainment Enterprise
1Week
1Month
PVR
89
(10 6)
(10.6)
(6 1)
(6.1)
(53 9)
(53.9)
(53 1)
(53.1)
(58 4)
(58.4)
Inox Leisure
35
(10.6)
(3.7)
(59.5)
(66.7)
(69.8)
Deccan Chronicle Holdings
44
1.7
(61.0)
(68.2)
(78.0)
Television Eighteen India
61
(15.0)
(17.2)
(74.3)
(81.3)
(86.6)
TV Today Network
53
(14.5)
(5.3)
(45.3)
(50.7)
(65.0)
Zee News
29
(8.4)
(11.9)
(27.2)
(50.5)
(58.0)
Entertainment Network India
105
((14.2))
((24.3))
((64.6))
((75.9))
((79.1))
UTV Software Communications
262
(9.1)
(46.7)
(66.5)
(66.8)
(61.8)
61
(0.5)
(15.2)
(49.3)
(55.3)
(70.0)
HT Media
Jagran Prakashan
48
0.1
(2.4)
(10.2)
(33.0)
(40.5)
(62.2)
(11.8)
(11.1)
(41.2)
(59.9)
(53.8)
61
(7.3)
(21.2)
(62.4)
(66.2)
(81.8)
14
(13.7)
(0.7)
(64.4)
(74.2)
(82.3)
94
(5.1)
10.4
(50.7)
(60.2)
(76.4)
IBN 18 Broadcast
102
0.1
56.8
(22.0)
(43.5)
Adlabs Films
154
(9.1)
(77.3)
(82.8)
Sun TV Network
142
Balaji Telefilms
Dish TV India
Network 18 Media & Investments
(2.5)
1.9
(69.4)
Source: Edelweiss research
29
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