Next Generation Optical Disc Studio Perspectives

Next Generation Optical Disc
Studio Perspectives
Richard Doherty
Managing Director of Blu-ray and Professional A/V
Panasonic Hollywood Labs
HDTV Market Penetration - US
60
55.7
50
44.1
40
32.6
30
3.8
7.7
0.6
8.1
3.6
1.6
40%
17.1
13.7
80%
60%
31.8
22.2
20
10
48.4
100%
20%
0
0%
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
HDTV-monitor households
HDTV-receiving households
HDTV-monitor households pentration
HDTV-receiving household penetration
Source: Jupiter Research HDTV Model, 9/03 (US only)
DVD and Related Consumer Penetration
9
8
7
Millions
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1999
2000
2001
2002
DVD Players
Source: CEA Estimates
2003
2004
HDTVs
2005
VHS
2006
2007
Studio Content Distribution Channels
• Theatrical Release
– Medium margin, medium penetration
• PPV, VOD
– Low margin, low penetration
• Broadcast, Cable
– Low margin, high penetration (but shrinking)
• Internet
– Low margin, low penetration (early stages)
• DVD Home Video
– High margin, wide penetration
– DVD release forms the majority of current studio profit!
High-Definition Distribution Channels
• The move to high-definition brings new revenue
opportunities to studios, if leveraged correctly
• Current HD delivery methods include:
–
–
–
–
HD Broadcast (including Cable, Satellite, and OTA)
D-VHS (Universal and Fox)
DVD up-converted (as an alternative to true HD content)
PC (such as WMV HD, or pirated material)
• DVD used to be the highest quality movie platform,
but now pales in comparison to the HD currently
delivered by other methods
High-Definition Delivery in the Future
The right way to deliver HD content to consumers:
Pre-packaged High-Definition Optical Disc
• Preserves existing high-margin business model
– It is not in studio’s financial interest to allow a lower-margin HD
delivery method to succeed
• Utilizes existing effective marketing and distribution
channels
• Allows optical disc to re-emerge as the preeminent,
unbeatable format with the highest video and audio quality
of any other delivery method
– High bitrates allow better picture quality (much lower
compression) than can be delivered by broadcast
Two leading candidates: HD-DVD and Blu-ray Disc
ƒ Same form factor as DVD & CD
ƒ Familiar to consumers
120 mm
1.2 mm thick
Blue Laser Enables Increased Density
4.7 GB
1.2 mm
Blu-ray
0.1 mm
0.1 mm
700 MB
HD-DVD
0.6 mm
DVD
0.6 mm
CD
15 GB (3 x DVD)
(Single Layer Comparison)
25 GB (5 x DVD)
Consumer Reach
Category
Blu-ray Disc
HD DVD
Consumer
Electronics
Hitachi, LGE,
Mitsubishi, Panasonic,
Pioneer, Philips,
Samsung, Sharp,
Sony, Thomson
Toshiba
Personal
Computers
HP, Dell,
Sony, Panasonic
NEC
Studios
Sony Pictures/Columbia-TriStar
Pony Canyon
Game Platforms
Sony Playstation 3
Panasonic Blu-ray Disc Recorder
Panasonic BD/DVD recorder
“DMR-E700BD”
Dual-layer 50GB Blu-ray Disc,
DVD-Video, DVD-RAM, DVD-R,
CD-R, CD-RW, Audio CD
Format Comparison
Blu-ray Disc
HD-DVD (AOD)
Capacity (single layer)
25GB
15GB
Capacity (double layer)
50GB
30GB
Industry Partners
13+
2
Interactive Features
Yes
??
Backwards Compatible
Yes
Yes
Blue Laser
Yes
Yes
Studios Seem Eager
• Nearly all studios seem eager to move to the
next generation optical disc format
– New business models
– Protect high-margin business
– Utilize new copy protection to prevent active piracy
• Theatrical, P2P, Professional
• Two studios (Universal and Fox) already release
consumer HD titles on D-VHS
• All studios employ HD post-production
infrastructure, and are ready to deploy HD
content