Texas Fire Potential Update

October 26th through 31st
• Increasing dewpoints and RH in east Texas will
slow initial attack activity but will only
temporarily reduce fuel dryness.
• Increasing initial attack activity in the western
High Plains Saturday through Monday with
persistent elevated fire weather.
• Please stay current with local NWS fire
weather forecasts for changing conditions
with an active weather pattern
14 Day Observed Rainfall
Rainfall over the last 14 days
has been associated with
two frontal passages.
Duration for this rainfall has
been short with the fast
moving systems. There is
little chance for rainfall for
the next 5 days. Gulf
moisture may bring
increased chances to eastern
Texas late next week.
Rainfall forecast through
Monday AM
60 Day Percent of Normal (PON) Rainfall
25% of normal rainfall deficits are
beginning to show in the 60 day
period. This time frame provides
better guidance for areas of increased
fire activity during the fall and winter
months when daily drying potential is
reduced due to shorter days and
cooler temperatures. Northeast Texas
still leads the way but the eastern half
of Texas continues to build 25% of
normal rainfall deficits.
Oct 25th 30 day PON rainfall
October 25th
Statewide ERC trends are now trending above normal. Dry
conditions for the next 7 days for most all the state should
continue to increase ERC values. Higher RH in east Texas will hold
ERC values below the 90th percentile
http://ticc.tamu.edu/Documents/PredictiveServices/Fuels/erc_map.htm
Fuel Dryness
Increased dewpoints and
afternoon RH will continue to
moderate 100 hour fuel
moistures in eastern Texas
and hold Fuel Dryness in the
normal range.
RH and dewpoints will be
decreasing along the western
Plains and particularly in the
western High Plains Friday
through Monday. Expect Fuel
dryness to increase to dry
levels for the western high
Plains. It may be possible to
reach critical dryness by
Monday afternoon at a few
locations.
Minimum RH forecasts for Friday (28th) and
Monday (31st)
Dry air begins to push into the western Plains on
Friday
Monday
Dry air persists in the western Plains and Gulf
moisture persists in the eastern half of Texas
Tuesday
Forecast prefrontal conditions on the High Plains Monday
afternoon could increase initial attack activity in the above
normal load, transition stage grasses
Surface forecast for Monday AM
Forecast Wind at 1300 Monday