Arctic IO by Analogy - Center for Integrated Operations in the

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Arctic IO by Analogy - Center for Integrated Operations in the
Arctic IO by Analogy
2013-09-05
Prelude to IO
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Different IO focus => Different Analytic Ecology
Domestic IO is dominated
by industrial efficiency,
but arctic exploration drilling
will probably be dominated
by a need for operational
effectiveness
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NADGE
NASAMS
Well integrated
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Less well integrated
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Integration in progress?
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What creates disintegration - what drives
integration?
Governing a
large number
as though
governing a
small number
is a matter of
division into
groups.
Nød lærer naken kvinne å spinne
While this solution worked, it was
fundamentally flawed, creating
the otherwise contradictory
systemic anomaly, that, if left
unchecked, might threaten the
system itself. Ergo, those who
refused the program, while a
minority, would constitute an
escalating probability of disaster.
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Necessity is the mother of invention
Organizational patterns (static)
Differentiation
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Integration
• Specialization
• Standardization
• Module (Unit, Component)
• Liaison (Mediator)
• Task
• Chain of command
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IO component model (static)
Decision
Support
Command
Mediator
Information infrastructure
Effector
Sensor
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Connective promenade
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Comparison Matrix
Air
Defense
Arctic
Exploration
Drilling
Geographically distributed operation in physical
environment
√
√
Presence of threats to operations
√
√
Threats are BVR, non-deterministic
√
√
Threats needs detection, tracking, classification and
prediction
√
√
Performed by multinational joint task force
√
√
Vital national interests at stake
√
√
Operation subject to Fog and Friction
√
√
High opex and capex
√
√
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Comparison Matrix Reloaded
Air Defense
Arctic
Exploration
Drilling
Operational experience, maturity
Very high
Just beginning
System and operations analysis
Abundant
Infancy?
Physical environment
Airspace,
simple and
homogeneous
Air, sea,
subsurface,
complex
Information and analysis availability
Excellent
Some
Command and Control maturity
Extreme
Low
Sensor suites development
Yes
More complex
Sensor integration, COP in progress
Mature
Infancy
Flexibility key to success
Yes
Yes
Fog and Friction
Yes
Literaly
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Analogy Allegretto
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Fighter pilots vs Drillers, how to handle them?
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Design of air defense fighter vs ice-breaker
• Agility
• Range
• Payload/Firepower
• Speed
• Acceleration
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Task Force
Composition
Fleet of fit for purpose vessels
cooperating and composed according
to the need of the moment
• AAR
• Escort /sweep by fighters
• Mudmoving
• Ground based mission support centre
• Airborne command and control – sensors
• Electronic warfare
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RAP vs «RIP» CAP vs «CIP»
• Geometry of «manning the cap» similar to physical ice breaking.
• Tradeoff between resource consumption, distances out and sectors to defend
• Air defense systems maximize stamina by minimizing their alert state
• Building a common operating picture and implementing a threat warning and
alert system will be absolutely key to an environmentally acceptable footprint and
cost effective operation
• Situational awareness – will need much liasoning/mediation
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If flexibility is the key to arctic power then:
• Flexibility is the key to airpower – it will also be the key to «arctic power»:
• Must write and agree on doctrines and concepts of operations for
− Ice management operations
− Oil spill response operations
− Command and control
− etc
• Large scale, synthetic and real training exercises will be required
• Onshore mission support centre with good information infrastructure to help in
planning and execution control, disruption management etc
• Command and control will be «military style» mission tactics
• Must develop «rules of engagement»
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Conclusion, Arctic IO should consider from IAD
• Design and functions of the command and control system
• Building and using a common operating picture
• Mechanics and geometry of handling threat tracking and defensive measures
• Threat warning level system and decision support, «fight or flight»
• Fleet composition issues
• Vessel design tradeoffs
• Exercises
• Training, selection and retention of personnell
• Integrated operations planning
• Doctrine, concepts of operations
• Operating modes and modes of control
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Arctic IO by Analogy
Arent Arntzen
Lead Researcher
[email protected]
Tel: +4791559139
www.statoil.com
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Modes of operation and modes of control
• Centralized control – decentralized execution
• Close control – loose control – broadcast control
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Digital Battlefield vs Network Centric
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On the transient nature of arctic remoteness
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The Dowding Ice Management System
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