09:30 Troccoli

Welcome to the International Conference
Energy & Meteorology 2011
Alberto Troccoli (CSIRO)
International Conference Energy & Meteorology 2011
Gold Coast, Australia, 8-11 November2011
Why Energy & Meteorology?
Why Energy & Meteorology?
Meteorology
Why Energy & Meteorology?
Meteorology
Weather & Climate for the Energy Industry
Picture Alliance/Franz-Peter Tschauner
Hydro-meteorological and climate variables
of relevance to energy industry
Cloudiness
Humidity
Temperature
Rainfall
Wind speed
and/or direction
Snowfall and
ice accretion
Short-wave
radiation
Sea level
Wave height
Weather/Climate and Energy interaction
Effect of floods on coal mines
!
Effect of hurricanes on oil platforms
Effect of high temperature on
nuclear reactors
Weather/Climate and Energy interaction
Effect on wind energy
Effect on solar energy
Effect of waves on oil industry
NatCatSERVICE
Great weather catastrophes worldwide 1950 ± 2010
Number of events with trend
Number
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
Meteorological events
(Storm)
1980
1985
1990
Hydrological events
(Flood, mass
movement)
© 2011 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE ± As at January 2011
1995
2000
2005
Climatological events
(Extreme temperature,
drought, forest fire)
2010
!"#$%&'%(#)*'*"&#+(,*"&'-.#(./#(
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Projected changes in Energy Demand
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•  Fossil fuels projected to decline from 81% in 2008 to 74% in 2035
•  Demand for coal & oil declines
in the OECD
!"##$%&'()%#&*+$,-+$,&+&.),-/+%&/"%)&$,&-0)&1/$*+/2&),)/32&*$4&$,&-0)&5)6&7"%$.$)#
•  Use of renewable energy triples
between 2008 & 2035
8.),+/$"9&:(-&-0)$/&#0+/)&;).%$,)#9&'/"*&<=>&$,&?@@<&-"&AB>&$,&?@CD
Source: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2010
Direct and Indirect Impacts of
Weather & Climate on Energy Industry
• Weather and climate can have direct effects on
all aspects of the energy systems life cycle
•  Resource endowment, infrastructure, design and planning
•  Energy supply and operations
•  Energy transmission, distribution, and transfers
•  Energy demand
• But also indirect effects through other
economic sectors
•  Agriculture: use of land for biofuels or coal seams gas
•  Water resources: extensive use of water for electricity
generation, oil refining and irrigation of energy crops
Take home message
Not only is the energy sector at risk
from future climate changes but it is
also at risk from current hydrometeorological climate variability &
change. However, improvable tools to
tackle these risks are available.
© 2011
ICEM Main Expected Outcomes
1.  The identification of key scientific issues
to better support the energy industry
such as improved simulation of
solar radiation, cloud, wind speed,
precipitation, hurricanes, etc.
2.  A strengthened link between the
energy industry and the weather and
climate communities, for instance by
establishing a network/platform for a
sustained dialogue and regular
exchange of information
© 2011
Thank you and Enjoy ICEM 2011
Weather & Energy Research Unit
Alberto Troccoli
Phone: 02 6246 5759
Email: [email protected]