Mexico Real Estate

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Mexico Real Estate
Mexico Real Estate
Outlook
1st HALF 2016 | MEXICO UNIT
01
02
03
The mortgage market has
grown in double digits yet
another year. Although it will
grow at a slower pace in 2016
Demand for housing still
governs the behaviour of
prices, now examined from a
spatial perspective
A new way of measuring
accessibility indicates how
much purchasing power has
grown
Mexico Real Estate Outlook
First Half 2016
Index
1. Summary .................................................................................................. 2
2. Situation
2.a The dearth of Civil Works slows Construction.................................... 3
2.b More equitable mortgage solutions .................................................. 11
3. Special topics
3.a The evolution of housing prices in regional clusters in Mexico ........ 18
Box 1. Methodology to assess the spatial dependence of housing prices ..........................
26
3.b Mortgage essential in housing demand ........................................... 29
3.c Infonavit maintains credit placement stable ..................................... 36
4. Statistical appendix ................................................................................. 40
5. Special topics included in previous issues............................................... 44
Closing date: March 4, 2016
SEE IMPORTANT INFORMATION ON PAGE 45 OF THIS DOCUMENT
Mexico Real Estate Outlook
First Half 2016
1. Summary
Last year, we commented on the shortening of the construction economic cycle, thanks to a hike in residential
building that led to the sector achieving positive rates sooner than expected. In 2015, construction continued
to grow, this time at the same rate as the economy; but the slowdown also arrived earlier than expected.
Expectations of civil engineering have been very high since 2013, especially with the publication of the National
to building and civil engineering projects. We do not expect a recovery in civil works in 2016, especially with a
smaller budget and spending cuts. Building will have to lift the sector again.
The mortgage market has again had an excellent year, growing more than 10% in real terms. The number
of loans is also growing, albeit at a slower pace –only 3.3%– indicating that higher-value housing is being
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in loan amounts, after removing the effect of prices. Several changes have contributed to a fruitful 2015. First,
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value homes have meant that the average mortgage amount exceeds 1,100,000 pesos. Regarding housing
supply, it is likely that the lower subsidy budget and the fear of further restrictions have lowered builders’
expectations. However, we believe that the current level of inventory would be close to achieving equilibrium.
We have addressed the issue of housing prices in several numbers of Mexico Real Estate Outlook. On the
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and the economic variables that most affected their dynamics. Now, we are supplementing the analysis of this
important aspect of the housing market with a spatial pricing-model at municipal level. Based on appraisals, we
have calculated some clusters and found that demand has led to a concentration of price increases in the cities
with greatest economic activity. At the same time, this study helps to discover the geographical relationship
of price changes; for example, how a price increase affects neighbouring municipalities or even if it has any
effect at all.
It is known that mortgage loans are the main access route to housing; so a lower cost of mortgages should
point towards greater accessibility. Several measurements are typically used in analyses of this type in different
economies, such as the ratio of house prices to income, or the monthly instalment relative to income. We
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in that cost is enough to obtain housing. We therefore propose a measurement based on purchasing power
through the mortgage loan, while taking into account the current housing supply. Our calculations indicate that
more households can buy a home of greater value taking into account housing prices in their states. Moreover,
we estimate the amount by which buying power has increased.
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the leading underwriter of mortgages in terms of number and the second in value, we focus on its Annual
Operational Programme (AOP) in more detail. Compared to last year’s AOP, the Infonavit is very cautious
in its 2016 plan, especially if we compare it with how much it actually placed in 2015. We believe that with
the changes made to its lending policy and an increase in the number of IMSS workers, the probability of
exceeding the provisions of the AOP is very high.
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Mexico Real Estate Outlook
First Half 2016
2. Situation
2.a The dearth of Civil Works slows Construction
Construction shortened its economic cycle during 2014 and started growing sooner than expected. The cycle
may also change in 2016 to enter a phase of slower growth. This is especially so, considering the adjustment
to infrastructure spending.
More construction, but at a slower pace
As in 2014, the construction sector was growing at the end of 2015. Construction GDP increased 2.5% over the
previous year. This time, the difference is a slowdown at year’s end. Building is again the mainstay of the sector
throughout the year with the lukewarm progress in civil works. Residential construction and manufacturing
building showed a positive trend, although the second slowed compared to previous years. On the other hand,
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than real growth. Both components fell in the last quarter, slowing the progress of the sector which, after
growing above the economy, ended at the same rate.
Figure 2a.1
Figure 2a.2
Gross Domestic Product in Construction
Billions of real pesos and annual % change
Construction GDP by Components
Annual % change
6%
1,060
1,020
1,000
10%
1,035
1,040
1,010
2.5%
8%
4%
6%
990
2.5% 2%
980
4%
960
0%
2%
940
920
900
-2%
0%
-4%
-2%
880
-4%
860
-6%
4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15
-6%
4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15
Construction GDP (lhs)
YoY % change Total
YoY % change Construction
Construction
Source: BBVA Research with SCNM, Inegi data
Civil Works
Building
Specialized
Source: BBVA Research with SCNM, Inegi data
The slowdown was seen at the beginning of the second half as a signal of industrial construction activity. Its
two main components began decreasing and reached negative numbers in the months of November and
December. Meanwhile, the gross value of construction yielded negative numbers three months before the
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share slightly above 50%, so its reduced activity explains why the sector is slowing as a whole.
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Mexico Real Estate Outlook
First Half 2016
Figure 2a.3
Figure 2a.4
Industrial Activity in Construction
Annual % change
Value of Construction by Sector
Billions of real pesos and annual % change
12%
15%
10%
10%
8%
6%
5%
4%
2%
0%
0%
-2%
-5%
-4%
-10%
-6%
Dec-14
Feb-15
Construction
Apr-15
Jun-15
Aug-15
Building
Oct-15
Dec-14 Feb-15
Dec-15
Civil Works
Total
Source: BBVA Research with SCNM, Inegi data
Apr-15
Jun-15
Aug-15
Private
Oct-15
Dec-15
Public
Source: BBVA Research with ENEC, Inegi data
With a slowdown, demand for building work has also been frozen during the fourth quarter, although it is
true that in 2015 the total number of jobs created in construction exceeded those of 2014. Many of them
were formalised through the IMSS. Building workers’ productivity remains positive, whether measured by the
number of workers or the hours worked (although there are differences between both indexes, the correlation
between them is very high). This increased productivity could explain why even though the gross value of
construction began to fall from the second half of the year, it continued to generate added value during the
third quarter of the reporting period. We should point out that, despite being positive, growth of productivity has
been declining.
Figure 2a.5
Figure 2a.6
Employees in the Construction Industry
Millions of workers and annual % change
Productivity Index in the Construction Industry
Annual % change
4.2
12%
4.0
10%
3.8
8%
3.6
6%
3.4
4%
0%
3.2
2%
-1%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
-2%
3.0
0%
4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15
Total employed (lhs)
YoY % change IMSS-registered
-3%
4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15
YoY % change Total
Employed
Source: BBVA Research with ENOE, Inegi data
Hours
Source: BBVA Research with Inegi data
In addition to lower demand for labour, demand for some of the main construction materials has decreased. The
case of products that target the sector is striking; during 2015 they have fallen by around 15%. Among these
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Mexico Real Estate Outlook
First Half 2016
case of building, particularly as the producer price index for civil works has dropped. The latter is probably a
result of lower activity in infrastructures, which has decreased demand for materials. Among other products,
the increase in the price of cement has affected most works. Investment in infrastructure has been weak over
(= ( caused by the fall in oil prices.
Figure 2a.7
Figure 2.a8
Main Construction Materials
Annual % change
National Production Price Index
Index base 2008 = 100
30%
110
108
20%
106
104
10%
102
0%
100
98
-10%
96
-20%
94
92
-30%
Dec-14
Feb-15
Apr-15
Jun-15
Construction
Trade
90
Aug-15
Dec-14
Manufacturing
Credit
Feb-15
Apr-15
Construction
Source: BBVA Research with ENOE, Inegi data
Jun-15
Aug-15
Oct-15 Dec-15
Building
Civil Works
Source: BBVA Research with Inegi data
As mentioned, the gross value of construction began to decline from the second quarter of 2015. Reviewing the
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result; civil works seem to have recovered slightly. However, we must note that in the case of infrastructure,
the effect is merely statistical because of last year’s low production.
Figure 2a.9
Figure 2a.10
Value of Construction of Buildings
Billions of real pesos and annual % change
Value of Construction of Infrastructure
Billions of real pesos and annual % change
20
14%
18
12%
16
10%
14
8%
12
6%
10
4%
8
2%
6
0%
4
-2%
2
-4%
25
2%
20
Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15
Production value
Jun-15 Aug-15
Oct-15
1%
0%
15
-1%
10
-2%
-3%
5
-4%
-6%
0
3%
0
Dec-15
-5%
Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15
Annual % change (rhs)
Production value
Source: BBVA Research with ENEC, Inegi data
Jun-15 Aug-15
Oct-15
Dec-15
Annual % change (rhs)
Source: BBVA Research with ENEC, Inegi data
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Mexico Real Estate Outlook
First Half 2016
The balance of the bank lending portfolio to construction companies grew as a result of increased originations.
Development banks, which have been competing with commercial banks –which is a questionable public
policy– held the ground gained from commercial banks at the end of 2014, but both grew during 2015. Although
the latter continues with a share of almost 70% of the total balance. A favourable result is the improvement of
the portfolio quality as measured by the delinquency rate, which had risen sharply a couple of years ago and
is now below 10%.
Figure 2a.11, 2a.12 y 2a.13
Real Total Balance of Credit to Construction, % share and annual % change
Billions of constant pesos and %
38.3%
80%
50%
20%
Current
Past due
Delinquency index (rhs)
Development banks
Commercial banks
Other
4Q15
3Q15
2Q15
1Q15
4Q14
0%
3Q14
0%
0.9%
2Q14
10%
1Q14
2%
4Q13
4Q15
3Q15
2Q15
1Q15
4Q14
3Q14
2Q14
1Q14
4Q13
100
14.2%
13.9%
8.2%
30%
4%
Development banks
Commercial banks
3Q15
200
14.3%
40%
2Q15
6%
4Q15
60%
8%
1Q15
300
70%
10%
4Q14
400
3Q14
12%
0
90%
2Q14
14%
500
100%
1Q14
16%
4Q13
600
Total
Source: BBVA Research with Bank of Mexico data
In contrast to economic activity, in real terms, more bank credit was granted to builders. In part, this could be
attributed to banks having extended their offering from customers of residential building to include other types
of works; they have also entered development banking more strongly, not only with direct credit, but with other
support measures such as guarantees. In addition to the foregoing, the construction-credit interest-rate has
remained stable despite the pressures of risk and the funding rate.
Figure 2a.14
Figure 2a.15
Interest Rate of Construction Loans
Annual interest rate
Construction Credit Origination
Billions of real pesos
8
90
7
80
6
70
60
5
50
4
40
3
30
2
20
1
10
0
0
4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15
TIIE 28
4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15
Commercial banks
Commercial banks
Source: BBVA Research with CNBV data
Development banks
Source: BBVA Research with CNBV data
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Mexico Real Estate Outlook
First Half 2016
Construction with a high dependence on buildings
More than 60% of the GDP of the construction is provided by buildings. Therefore, considering the weakness
&(
building made clear progress with increased activity in both residential and productive areas. This type of
work increased throughout the year if we look at the annualised gross value for the residential and other types
of building. However, even this indicator shows the slump at the end of 2015. The construction of industrial
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building seems to be approaching an equilibrium, with a more stable number of homes built.1
Figure 2a.16
Figure 2a.17
Gross Value of Buildings
Billions of real pesos (annualised)
Gross Value of Buildings
Annual % change (annualised series)
200
10
180
9
160
8
140
7
120
6
100
5
80
4
60
3
40
2
20
1
0
0
Dec-14
Feb-15
Apr-15
Jun-15
Residential
Aug-15
Oct-15
Dec-15
Dec-14
Feb-15
Apr-15
Jun-15
Residential
Productive
Source: BBVA Research with ENEC, Inegi data
Aug-15
Oct-15
Dec-15
Productive
Source: BBVA Research with ENEC, Inegi data
Similarly, regarding increased building, the credit balance has increased slightly. Commercial banks have
clearly decreased their share of corporate credit aimed at building works. Not only have development banks
partly displaced commercial banks, but other players, such as Sofomes have obtained space in this segment
to the cost of traditional banks. This is even more so in residential building, where competition has increased
among the various intermediaries. The positive outlook could be that they may concentrate more on productive
building during 2016.
1
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Mexico Real Estate Outlook
First Half 2016
Figure 2a.18, 2a.19 y 2a.20
Real Total Balance of Credit to Building, % share and annual % change
Billions of constant pesos and %
100
10%
80
8%
60
6%
88%
40
4%
86%
20
2%
84%
0
0%
82%
94%
92%
10.1%
90%
2.5%
Commercial banks
Development banks
Past due
Current
Delinquency index (rhs)
4Q15
3Q15
2Q15
1Q15
4Q14
3Q14
2Q14
1.2%
1Q14
4Q13
4Q15
3Q15
2Q15
1Q15
4Q14
3Q14
2Q14
1Q14
3.3%
-6.1%
-8.0%
4Q13
4Q15
12%
3Q15
120
2Q15
14%
1Q15
96%
140
4Q14
16%
3Q14
98%
160
2Q14
100%
18%
1Q14
20%
180
4Q13
200
Total
Commercial banks
Development banks
Otros
Source: BBVA Research with Bank of Mexico data
Increased origination of loans for building (mostly bridge loans) has meant that late payments have fallen to
10% from around the 20% of three years ago that was caused by the deterioration of the residential component
of the portfolio. There is still plenty of scope for building credit to businesses and the balance of the portfolio at
the end of 2015 is higher than in 2014. However, it does not reach the levels of 2013 in real terms, when credit
demand for this type of work reached its highest level.
Energy works replace communications and transport
After a long period during which communications and transport infrastructure were the only growth sectors,
they have exchanged place with energy works in the second half of 2015. It should be noted also that the
communications and transport projects started the year very fast, while energy works have a statistical effect
as they are compared to the low base of previous periods. Within the energy sector, companies engaged
in oil plant infrastructures, as well as oil and gas pipelines reported increased activity. Again, it should be
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achievements of 2014, the average level would not yet be reached.
Figure 2a.21
Figure 2a.22
Gross Value of Infrastructure
Billions of real pesos (annualised)
Gross Value of Infrastructure
Annual % change (annualized series)
250
10
200
5
150
0
100
-5
-10
50
0
Dec-14
-15
Feb-15
Hydraulic works
Apr-15
Jun-15
Aug-15
Oct-15
Communications & transportation
Dec-14
Dec-15
Energy
Feb-15
Hydraulic works
Source: BBVA Research with ENEC, Inegi data
Apr-15
Jun-15
Aug-15
Oct-15
Communications & transportation
Dec-15
Energy
Source: BBVA Research with ENEC, Inegi data
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Mexico Real Estate Outlook
First Half 2016
We associate the discrete progress of civil works with the reduced intervention of the public sector in direct
construction and its lower spending on infrastructure. The main public actors affecting infrastructures have
reduced the resources they allocate to them. According to the Expenditure Budget of the Federation for 2016,
this result may be maintained for 2016 with lower investments in the various types of infrastructure. Economic
infrastructure would have the greatest impact with a budgetary cut of just over 30 thousand million pesos in real
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spending cuts.
Figure 2a.23
Figure 2a.24
Physical Investment Spending
Real annual % change
Federal Government Investment in Infrastructure
Billions of real pesos
140
500
D = -5.2%
120
37
100
49
400
80
60
300
40
20
200
394
362
0
-20
100
-40
-60
0
2015
-80
4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15
Pemex
Public Sector
2016
Government Infrastructure
Maintenance
Economic Infrastructure*
Social Infrastructure
Federal Government
Source: BBVA Research with Inegi & Pemex data
*Includes Pidiregas
Source: BBVA Research with PEF 2015 & PEF 2016, SHCP data
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credit was given to communications and transport projects. In total, the balance of the portfolio increased by
almost 20%, something unheard of in recent years. Although the activity has not increased at the same rate,
this could be indicative of a greater share of bank credit aimed at these companies.
Figure 2a.25, 2a.26 y 2a.27
Real Total Balance of Credit to Infrastructure, % share and annual % change
Billions of pesos and %
300
3.0%
250
2.5%
200
2.0%
150
1.5%
100
1.0%
50
0.5%
100%
90%
80%
19.9%
70%
60%
19.7%
19.4%
18.4%
50%
40%
3.9%
30%
20%
-3.8%
Past due
Current
Delinquency index (rhs)
Commercial banks
Development banks
4Q15
3Q15
2Q15
1Q15
4Q14
3Q14
2Q14
1Q14
4Q13
4Q15
3Q15
2Q15
1Q15
4Q14
3Q14
2Q14
0%
1Q14
0.0%
4Q13
4Q15
3Q15
2Q15
1Q15
4Q14
3Q14
2Q14
1Q14
0
4Q13
10%
Total
Commercial banks
Development banks
Source: BBVA Research with Bank of Mexico data
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Mexico Real Estate Outlook
First Half 2016
The challenge remains for the construction sector in 2016
Some of the indicators that we consider to be precipitate for the construction sector have a slightly positive
outlook. Particularly, the construction IGAE (Indicador Global de la Actividad Económica, Global Economic
Activity Index) fell at the end of 2015, although this behaves more like a indicator of the observations of
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as the year ended.
Figure 2a.28
Figure 2a.29
Gross Fixed Investment
Annual % change of the physical volume index
Anticipated Construction Indicators
Annual % change
12
8
10
6
8
6
4
4
2
2
0
-2
0
-4
-6
-2
-8
-4
-10
Dec-14
Feb-15
Apr-15
Construction
Jun-15
Aug-15
Residential
Oct-15
Dec-14
Dec-15
Feb-15
Apr-15
Jun-15
Aug-15
Oct-15
Business confidence indicator
Non-residential
Source: BBVA Research with Inegi data
Dec-15
IGAE
Source: BBVA Research with Inegi data
The slowdown in building and a grey outlook for civil works during 2016 lead us to believe that the construction
sector may have little room to grow. Infrastructure and its effect on civil works would lead to progress by a base
effect. Building would once more have to be the force that keeps the industry growing.
Figure 2a.30
Figure 2a.31
Accumulated GDP in Construction
Billions of real pesos and annual % change
Construction GDP by Components
Annual % change
1,150
6%
12
5%
10
1,100
8
4%
6
1,050
3%
1,000
2%
4
1.1%
1.0%
0
0%
-2
-1%
-4
0.2%
950
Observed GDP
Change in GDP
4Q16
3Q16
2Q16
1Q16
4Q15
3Q15
2Q15
1Q15
4Q14
0.2%
900
2
1%
4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16
YoY % change (rhs)
Source: BBVA Research with Inegi data
Construction
Building
Civil Works
Specialized
Source: BBVA Research with Inegi data
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Mexico Real Estate Outlook
First Half 2016
2.b More equitable mortgage solutions
Introduction
In our previous issue of Mexico Real Estate Outlook we highlighted the bank conditions that boosted credit
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which are in one of the best periods of its history, have recently faced a marginal increase in benchmark rates;
this will be transmitted unequally between the individual mortgage loans and credit for housing construction.
Moreover, slower growth in income and employment are expected for 2016 and, as we have seen in previous
real estate cycles, its effect would become visible after several months.
We therefore hope that the mortgage market will continue its growth trend in 2016, although at a slower rate,
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whose cities are growing, but also towards those consolidated metropolitan areas where banks and public
institutions continue to cover increasingly diverse needs.
Housing institutions are transforming their relationship with banks
The diversity of mortgage products, both for acquisition and other options, have developed to such an extent
that the historically favourable credit conditions continue to drive the housing market. The number of mortgages
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Table 2b.1
Mortgage activity: number and amount of loans at December
Number of loans (Thousand)
Mortgage Origination
Public agencies
Infonavit
Fovissste
Private intermediaries
Banks 1
Subtotal
€'
2 (-)
Total
'
Infonavit Total

'
Dec-14
Dec-15
Annual %
change
450.1
387.0
63.1
95.4
95.4
545.5
32.6
512.9
457.4
393.0
64.4
110.6
110.6
568.0
38.0
530.0
77.8
45.2
32.6
49.1
11.2
38.0
Loan amount (MXN bn)
Dec-14
Dec-15
1.6
1.5
2.0
15.9
15.9
4.1
16.4
3.3
153.7
114.0
39.7
100.2
100.2
253.9
160.5
120.5
40.0
121.9
121.9
282.4
253.9
-36.9
-75.3
16.4
39.7
16.8
22.9
Real
annual %
change
Average sum (MXN thousand)
Real
annual %
change
Dec-14
Dec-15
4.4
5.7
0.9
21.7
21.7
11.2
341
295
629
1,050
1,050
465
351
307
622
1,102
1,102
497
2.8
4.1
-1.1
4.9
4.9
6.8
282.4
11.2
495
533
7.7
23.3
3.8
19.5
-41.3
-77.3
-14.9
510
372
701
474
341
513
-7.1
-8.3
-26.9
) ((
2 Without Infonavit Total and Apoyo Infonavit (New and previously-owned housing). Products for renovations and expansions are not included.
Source: BBVA Research with data from Infonavit, Fovissste, ABM, Bank of Mexico and CNBV.
Housing institutes registered growth of 1.6% in the number of mortgages and 4.4% in real funding. The
Infonavit continued to provide greater amounts and originated more than 120 thousand million pesos in real
terms, 5.7% more than in 2014. The Fovissste registered growth of 2% in the number of mortgages and 0.9%
in real funding.
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Mexico Real Estate Outlook
First Half 2016
 !")< '
‚
co-participation of the Infonavit with commercial banks, mainly in the “Infonavit Total” product. In 2008, this
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increase their access and overcome the existing limitation of not lending more than 483,000 pesos to each
However, by increasing the maximum amount up to 850,000 pesos, the Institute seeks to strengthen the
cross-subsidy model. This also means that commercial banks contribute a smaller amount of funding to this
particular type of credit which, because it is granted in pesos, avoids negative amortization and guarantees
debt relief within the contract period.
Figure 2b.1
Figure 2b.2
Thousands of credits
Billions of pesos
90
45
80
40
70
35
18.4
60
50
25
14.3
40
20.0
15
11.2
30.2
16.1
11.8
21.6
10
10
0
4.7
9.6
5.7
20
45.2
30
20
7.9
30
8.8
14.1
21.5
5
14.3
9.5
0
2013
Other co-financing
2014
2015
Infonavit Total
Second credit*
2013
Other co-financing
*Estimate for 2015
Source: BBVA Research with CNBV & ABM data
2014
2015
Infonavit Total
Second credit*
*Estimate for 2015
Source: BBVA Research with CNBV & ABM data
@
&
„(!")[
&(
(
($
The immediate consequence of changes in lending policy led to the apparent contraction of the “Infonavit
Total” product funded by the banks, which fell from over 58% in 2014 to 21% in 2015. Not so the second loan,
which rose from 23.7% to 37.9% over the same period. The most prominent case occurred in the other the
'
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While the reduction in the number of credits was caused by the measures implemented in 2014, in terms of
'
Z†Z#*"!#
+
(
the reduction seen in the Infonavit Total product was offset by other products, boosting the average amount in
real terms from 2014 to 2015 by 4.9%.
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Mexico Real Estate Outlook
First Half 2016
Employment continues to set the pace of housing demand
Economic activity and particularly job creation remain the main determinants of housing demand in the short
term. Together with the changes in housing policy which began in 2014, in mid-2013 the federal government
launched a program of formal employment, whose effect would be seen more clearly in the housing market
in 2014 when it combined with an increased demand for loans in pesos, mainly in the middle segments. As a
result, the average amount per mortgage of commercial banks grew 4.9% in real terms in 2015.
Figure 2b.3
Figure 2b.4
Mortgage Originations and Economic Activity
Annual % change
Mortgage Originations and Workers with 5 Min.
Wages (Annual % change)
25
4
25
5
3
15
15
10
10
2
4
5
5
3
1
0
0
-5
-5
0
2
-10
-10
1
-1
Economic activity
Mortgage originations
Source: BBVA Research with Inegi and CNBV data
4Q15
3Q15
2Q15
1Q15
4Q14
3Q14
2Q14
1Q14
4Q13
3Q13
2Q13
1Q13
4Q15
3Q15
2Q15
1Q15
4Q14
3Q14
2Q14
1Q14
4Q13
3Q13
2Q13
1Q13
4Q12
Mortgage originations
-20
-2
4Q12
-15
-15
-20
6
20
20
0
Workers 5 MW
Source: BBVA Research with Inegi and CNBV data
In graphs 2b.3 and 2b.4we can seen that both economic activity and employment are highly correlated with
the origination of mortgage loans from commercial banks.1 However, the greatest synchrony with the real
(
@++
wage or more; this is the market segment that banks mostly cater for. The fact that there is a shift to the right in
mortgage origination tells us that the generation of formal employment takes about a year to become effective
(
'
digit increases in originations were recorded in 2014 and 2015 respectively was caused by a combination of
the upturn in economic activity and growth in the number of workers with high incomes. This also raised the
$ ( ( $
(
‡
$
behaviour. This index forecasts that high growth-rates in the mortgage market will continue.
1
'
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Mexico Real Estate Outlook
First Half 2016
Figure 2b.5
Figure 2b.6
Base Index 2003 = 100
Annual % change
140
120
120
100
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
CCI
Durable goods
Source: BBVA Research with Inegi data
Sep-15
Jan-15
Sep-13
May-14
Jan-13
Sep-11
Cycle trend
HCI
May-12
Jan-11
Sep-09
May-10
Jan-09
Sep-07
May-08
Jan-07
Sep-05
May-06
Jan-05
Sep-03
0
Apr-03
Dec-03
Aug-04
Apr-05
Dec-05
Aug-06
Apr-07
Dec-07
Aug-08
Apr-09
Dec-09
Aug-10
Apr-11
Dec-11
Aug-12
Apr-13
Dec-13
Aug-14
Apr-15
Dec-15
0
May-04
20
20
BHCI
Source: BBVA Research with Inegi data
Used housing and improvements surpass their highest ever levels
The fact that the demand for higher amounts of funding in 2015 is a response to the combination of the above
factors was seen in higher sales of new housing, which is also receiving most federal government subsidies.
Nevertheless, loans for previously-owned homes are gaining ground and this time represented 37% of total
funding, exceeding the new account Infonavit Annual Operational Plan (OAP).2
Table 2b.2
Figure 2b.7
Infonavit: Credits Granted by Product
Thousands of Loans
Infonavit: Credits Granted by Product
Thousands of Loans
Investment:
(mp)
800
Progress % progress
Programmed
December
towards
December 2015
2015
goal
700
600
Mortgages
116,466
119,838
103%
New
76,868
75,202
98%
500
Existing
39,598
44,636
113%
400
Improvements
4,030
8,462
210%
300
120,496
128,300
106%
200
Total
166
144
100
294
284
153
278
129
132
135
255
258
261
2014
2015
0
2012
2013
New
Source: BBVA Research with Infonavit data
Existing
Improvements
Source: BBVA Research with Infonavit data
Credits for improvements more than doubled the provisions of the AOP, so these, and those for the purchase
of previously-owned homes, together accounted for more than 60% of the total, above the level reached in
2013. Therefore, it is not surprising that the institute maintains its estimate of 350,000 mortgage loans for 2016.
2
Includes the Apoyo Infonavit programme
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Mexico Real Estate Outlook
First Half 2016
Regarding commercial banks, the range of products regained ground during 2015 for the new housing market,
but also in credits for payment of liabilities and liquidity, which practically grew by a factor of four in two years,
as a result of greater level of competition in the banking market.
Figure 2b.8
Figure 2b.9
Commercial Banking: Loans by Use
Billions of pesos
Commercial Banking: Payment of Liabilities and
Liquidity (Billions of pesos)
120
18
16
22
100
14
31
33
80
5
12
3
10
60
8
92
40
6
78
67
12
4
20
9
3
2
0
2
0
2013
2014
New
2015
2013
2014
Payment of liabilities
Existing
Source: BBVA Research with CNBV data
2015
Liquidity
Source: BBVA Research with CNBV data
Given the growth experienced by loans for improvements, we should focus on the entities where there is a
demand for this product, because it is likely that they are destined for regions where previously-owned housing
has increased its relative share against new housing, which would contribute to a greater diversity of housing
stock.
Figure 2b.10
Figure 2b.11
Credits for Improvements and existing homes
% shares
Housing Prices by Condition of Use
Annual % change
10
10
Chih
9
Mex Coah
% share of credits
8
9
BC
8
NL
7
7
Tamps
6
6
CDMX
5
3
2
Qro
1
Hgo
QR
0
0
5
Son
Dgo
Jal
4
20
4
Ver
Yuc Gto
Sin BCSMor
Pue Ags Tab
SLP
Gro
Nay
Mich
Camp
Chis
Col Zac Oax
Tlax
40
60
3
2
1
0
80
4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15
SHF
Porcentage of existing homes
Source: BBVA Research with Infonavit data
Existing homes
New homes
Source: BBVA Research with SHF data
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Mexico Real Estate Outlook
First Half 2016
(
('
originated by the Infonavit in each of the states and the corresponding share of loans for improvements. As
expected, Mexico City and the State of Mexico, being the conurbations with the highest population density in
the country, have a higher percentage of previously-owned housing loans. This is explained by the shortage
of land for construction and growing needs for renovation and extensions. This has also contributed to this
kind of loans growing annually at rates above 5% since 2013, because of their relative weight in the number
of commercial appraisals.
According to Infonavit data at national level, 35% of mortgages for house purchase are for previously-owned
homes. Among the states where this occurs and which and also have a high demand for improvement loans
are: Chihuahua, Baja California, Coahuila, Estado de México and Tamaulipas.
The states with the highest balance in the demand for loans for housing improvements and previously-owned
homes are in the central region of the country and are typically areas of urban growth, such as: Querétaro,
Puebla, Aguascalientes and Guanajuato. On the other hand, states such as Nuevo Leon and Jalisco which,
despite being consolidated urban concentrations, have the option to continue to expand and there is a high
level of demand for new housing, along with demand for improvements to the existing housing stock.
The construction is stabilised in line with subsidies in 2016
At the close of the fourth quarter of 2015, registrations for housing construction totalled 351,000 homes in
annualised terms. The increase in projects during most of 2015 was due to the announcement, made in
late 2014, that the amount of subsidies would be very similar. This encouraged builders to start projects.
Nevertheless, the inventory absorption process has been slower than expected, so that by the end of 2015
builders decided to pause.
Figure 2b.12
Figure 2b.13
Registration of Dwellings in the RUV
Inventory of Dwellings in the RUV
500
50
350
40
450
40
300
30
250
20
200
10
150
0
-10
100
-10
50
-20
50
-20
0
-30
0
400
30
350
300
20
250
10
200
0
150
100
1Q13
3Q13
1Q14
3Q14
Number
1Q15
3Q15
-30
1Q13
Annual % change (rhs)
3Q13
1Q14
3Q14
Number
Source: BBVA Research with RUV data
1Q15
3Q15
Annual % change (rhs)
Source: BBVA Research with RUV data
A reduction of 15.1% in the fourth quarter of last year is mainly explained as a base effect, as the number of
records made at the end of 2014 was particularly atypical for December. However, it also should be noted that
the inventory remained stable during 2015 and fell slightly during the last three months of the year. Of the
projected 351,000 homes, only 30% have made progress in construction, while 43% have made no progress
K
((
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Mexico Real Estate Outlook
First Half 2016
‡
(
interest rates, which reached minimum levels in December 2015, before the Bank of Mexico increased the
benchmark interest rate, which was almost immediately passed on to the construction credit interest rate.
Furthermore, the quality of such loans has continued to show improvement.
Figure 2b.14
Figure 2b.15
Bridge Loan Balance
Billions of constant pesos and %
Amount of Housing Subsidies
Billions of pesos
60
14
18
16
12
50
11.5
14
9.6
10
12
40
11.1
10
8
30
8
6
6
20
4
4
10
2
0
Dec-13
Apr-14
Past due
Aug-14
Dec-14
Current
Apr-15
Aug-15
2
0
Dec-15
0
Delinquency index (rhs)
2014
Source: BBVA Research with CNBV data
2015
2016
*Through Conavi.
Source: BBVA Research with PEF 2016 data.
The increase in loans contracted at the end of 2015 had a positive effect on the balance of the bridge loan, which
increased 9.1% in real terms. Moreover, the fact that more than 80% of subsidies have led to the construction
of new housing in recent years (which is a questionable public policy), would generate a favourable outlook,
albeit to a lesser extent than the previous year. Note that although there has been a reduction of 2,000 000,000
pesos, subsidies are still above the average for recent years.
!")*
Funding conditions are favourable for the sector at the beginning of 2016 and are maintaining builders’
 (!")<
'
attract a greater number of workers earning more than 4 times the minimum wage. It is anticipated that this
trend will continue in 2016, because changes were made in the Infonavit regulation to stipulate that all credits
from the institute were to be originated in pesos. We think this was a wise decision, as was changing ranges
of the maximum credit amounts to make them more equitable among wage segments.
Nevertheless, we must bear in mind that once a worker joins the formal sector, it takes about a year for him to
consider buying a home, if he needs one. It is therefore important that programmes to formalise employment
be continued, especially those aimed at high-income employees, as these are the workers who access a
mortgage most easily. This guarantees stable inventories, while building-credit portfolios remain healthy.
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First Half 2016
3. Special topics
3.a The evolution of housing prices in regional clusters in
Mexico
Introduction
In previous issues of Mexico Real Estate Outlook we studied the dynamics of housing prices through
their main determinants. In recent years, while historically low interest rates, availability of credit and stable
(‰
‰
(
across the regions.
Some states have experienced higher economic growth over the past two years, which has meant that the
demand for housing in some new or consolidated cities have shown greater momentum. These local housing
(
(
(‚
or become incorporated into large metropolitan areas.
In this article of Mexico Real Estate Outlook we review the value of housing in the municipalities where what
is known as spatial price dependence occurs. Given the paucity of studies of this type in the Mexican real
'
$
( ( (
and subsidies, which jointly encourage the purchase of houses and thus, increase the commercial value of
properties in different regions of Mexico.
Housing prices in a spatial context
According to the index of housing prices of the Federal Mortgage Society (FMS), (Sociedad Hipotecária Federal
or SHF) between the second quarter of 2012 and the third quarter of 2015, prices have grown by over 18% in
16 out of the 32 states. The states with the highest levels during this period are: Ciudad de México, Durango,
Oaxaca, Tlaxcala, Tabasco, Tamaulipas and Zacatecas with growth above 20%. States with lower levels of
appreciation were: Baja California, Baja California Sur, Jalisco, Nayarit, Nuevo León, Quintana Roo, San Luis
Potosí and Sinaloa, which increased their value by between 10% and 14% in the same period.1
This tells us that levels of housing prices across the country are increasingly diverse and, particularly in the
last two years, some areas have moved away from the national average. This is mainly for two reasons. First,
!")!
(
for middle and residential segments caused a period of prosperity, especially in consolidated metropolitan
areas, where economic activity and income are higher. Recently, this effect has transferred to regions where
income and employment grow at a great pace and where demand is characterised the purchase of increasingly
expensive homes, so the middle segments continue to gain even greater importance in regions traditionally
characterised by the construction of mostly social housing.
1
It should be noted that the variations are in local price levels, and having the highest rate of increase does not necessarily mean the state has the homes
of highest value.
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Map 3a.1
Appreciation of the SHF Price Index. 2Q12-3Q15. Quartiles
8%-16%
17%-18%
19%-20%
21%-28%
Source: BBVA Research with SHF data
Secondly, the social housing production model has given way to another model at a smaller scale in regions
where the availability of land makes it possible to increase urban sprawl. Therefore, it is important to distinguish
between regions where economic growth has sustained increased demand towards the interior from those
towns where labour mobility and greater transfers through subsidies could both encourage the growth of some
cities. As a result, any of these could cause greater economic correlation between the municipalities located
on the periphery of these metropolitan areas. The latter would also explain labour mobility and thus greater
population density.
To detail this behaviour, in subsequent sections we analyse the value of housing not only through the SHF
index of housing prices, but through the national base of appraisals which, although being the input for the
elaborating this indicator, shows more clearly the value of each of the transactions in the 1800 + municipalities
of the areas where they were carried out.2
In the next two sections we shall establish the presence of municipalities with statistically inter-dependent
housing prices, as well as those for the demand for bank mortgages and population density. First, we shall
check whether there are groups of municipalities which, because they share a neighbourhood, also display
dependency on the value of the home. This would form a group called a cluster. Second, we shall determine
whether there are also regional correlations between the housing-price clusters and with economic activity in
the region that derive from this dependency.
The presence of clusters of housing prices in Mexico
The spatial dependence based on the market value of housing prices involves a search of regions throughout
(
(
(
3
In other words, when the price level changes in a given municipality, there is a 95% probability that prices will
change in the neighbouring municipalities by very similar degrees, maintaining the correlation in price levels.
2
Geo-referenced with the catalogue of the Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (INEGI) National Institute of Statistics and Geography (NISG) of
2,457 municipalities.
3 Two regions are considered to be are neighbours if they have a common border, regardless of its length, including vertices.
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Mexico Real Estate Outlook
First Half 2016
This can also be observed in some demand indicators, such as population density, mortgage originations,
income and subsidies; therefore, comparing these variables will tell us whether the existence of housing-price
clusters would be related to these factors.
Currently, about 80% of the housing market in Mexico is intended for social housing, which would be highly
correlated with subsidies. That is why we classify the national base of appraisals in three classes of market
values; obtaining the average value not only for those of social housing, but also of middle and residential
segments, which are primarily served by banks.4
(‹+}Œ
Spatial Association ( ( ‚
of municipalities with positively or negatively correlated dependent prices occur. In this test for social housing
in 2014 and 2015, the clusters are presented in maps 2 and 3.5 Observing the municipal clusters with price
dependency, we can see a clear de-concentration of groups from 2014-2015 in much of the country. This
means that because demand for housing is explained by different factors in each region, said demand is
encouraging a regrouping of real estate markets in accordance with local characteristics.
Map 3a.2
Cluster of Housing Prices in Municipalities, 2014.
Low price
High price
‘‹+}’<#
Source: BBVA Research with data from the national appraisals data base.
4
Considering a minimum wage of 70.1 pesos. Housing up to 420,000 pesos is considered to be social housing, mid-range housing ranges from 421,000 to
1,577,000 pesos and residential housing over 1,577 thousands pesos.
5
The proof of the hypothesis of the LISA test indicator must meet two conditions. First, the statistical value obtained for each of the observations must provide
information on the existence of a spatial clustering of similar values around the neighbourhood. Second, that the sum of the value of the statistic for all
observations must be proportional to a global spatial association indicator.
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Mexico Real Estate Outlook
First Half 2016
Map 3a.3
Cluster of Housing Prices in Municipalities, 2015.
Low price
High price
‘‹+}’<#
Source: BBVA Research with data from the national appraisals data base.
The distribution shown on maps 2 and 3 facilitates the locating of clusters of municipalities where there is
(
(‡
the spatial dependence. The municipalities coloured deep blue are those neighbouring on at least another
municipality with very similar prices, above each year’s mean sample. Those coloured light blue show clusters
of municipalities with spatial price dependencies that are below the mean sample. The municipalities marked
(
’<#(
we can see areas which, although not necessarily in the same state, are part of the same cluster.
K ( simplicity, in this article we will discuss the three geographical areas that recorded major changes between
2014 and 2015 and which are framed in dark grey on the map 2 for the northern, central and south-eastern
regions of the country.
On maps 4 and 5 we can see that in 2014-2015, clusters of municipalities with housing-price dependencies
became more scattered across the central plateau of the country. By zooming in on this area, we note
that in 2014, this situation affected the central states, where traditionally much of the demand for housing
concentrates, reaching out from the states of Mexico, Puebla and Tlaxcala; to Hidalgo, Queretaro, Guanajuato
and Aguascalientes. However, in 2015 these last three states recorded GDP growth of 9.4%, 7.5% and 4.5%
respectively; this is well above the 2.5% recorded at national level, and may have generated important poles
of attraction and greater price dependency in some cities located in those regions.
Another cluster, although more irregular in shape but no less important, is the one that has been generated
(
mobility from other states, such as Veracruz and Morelos.
When zooming in towards the centre of the country, we note that, while in 2014 there was a cluster of
municipalities with price dependency from Puebla to Aguascalientes, in 2015 this had almost disappeared,
leading to the creation of a new one, round in shape and covering several municipalities with Guanajuato as
it centre of attraction. It extends to the municipality of Queretaro, which borderers on the municipalities of San
Miguel de Allende, Apaseo el Grande and Comonfort, belonging to Guanajuato. A similar situation was seen in
the north, where there was a large elongated cluster between the states of Coahuila, Nuevo Leon and Durango
in 2014. In 2015 it had disappeared, giving way to the formation of another, where the most spectacular growth
was that of the metropolitan area of Monterrey, which, by appending a greater number of municipalities, formed
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Mexico Real Estate Outlook
First Half 2016
a cluster of housing prices extending into the West. The economic growth of some regions framed in dark
grey on map 5 was the most important factor; although in other northern and western areas, subsidies are
also playing an important role. Such is the case of Nuevo Leon which, although it recorded growth of 5.8% of
the state GDP in 2015, also received 13% of the total nationwide subsidies for purchase of new housing. This
encouraged the increase in urban sprawl by expanding the perimeters eligible for support.
Therefore, the formation of clusters of housing prices in the Bajio region is the clearest sign of rises in the value
of housing caused by demand, since economic activity was the main factor, not the higher amount of subsidies
or population density, as it remains in other regions.
Map 3a.4
Map 3a.5
Price Clusters in the Northern and Central Regions,
2014
Price Clusters in the Northern and Central Regions,
2015
Municipalities above average price
Municipalities below average price
Municipalities above average price
Municipalities below average price
Note: This takes into account social housing segments and an average
appraised value of 482,117 pesos
Source: BBVA Research with data from the national appraisals data
base.
Note: This takes into account social housing segments and an average
appraised value of 481,728 pesos
Source: BBVA Research with data from the national appraisals data
base.
Map 3a.6
Clusters with Higher Amounts of Mortgage
Financing, 2015
Map 3a.7
Most Densely Populated Clusters, 2015
Municipalities above average population density
Municipalities below average population density
Municipalities above average loan amount
Municipalities below average loan amount
Source: BBVA Research with CNBV data.
Source: BBVA Research with Inegi data.
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Mexico Real Estate Outlook
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For example, if we consider the demand for mortgages from commercial banks, we realize that the largest
amounts of credit are not granted in the traditionally most densely populated regions. In these cases, the
increased economic activity, whether from manufacturing or tourism, is maintaining the clusters of municipalities
with loan amounts that are higher than the national average and that will not necessarily be destined to the
most densely populated places. This is the case of municipalities such as Tlalnepantla de Baz and Ecatepec
de Morelos in the state of Mexico. In these areas, the shortage of land for construction is obvious because of
its its proximity to Mexico City.
At the bottom of the maps 2 and 3 are housing-price clusters in the states of Oaxaca and Chiapas. These
municipalities are the clearest example of spatial dependence with price levels below the national average.
However, it is important to note that, like elsewhere, in 2015 the municipalities are much more widely dispersed
than in 2014, which is explained by an increase in demand for loans for renovations and expansions in these
areas. The main feature here is the perpetuity of tenure of land, which unlike the central areas of the country,
does not follow a housing construction and urban development model and this accentuates the differences
between the housing stock in this region.
Income and housing prices in clusters of municipalities
In our previous issue of Mexico Real Estate Outlook we found that demand for bank mortgages and income
'
6 We also mentioned that subsidies, by generating
a positive short-term impact on family income, would also have an effect on demand, although this would be
more noticeable in areas where these resources are received. We must remember that these subsidies would
be aimed at reducing the housing shortage in its various forms, which would not necessarily be related to
population density, but with the lack of housing solutions in the states.
For example, as already mentioned, the economic development of the bajío region has meant greater need
for housing in some cities, thus promoting the interconnection of a larger number of municipalities. This means
that not only the needs of the local population must be met, but also the needs of those who migrate to these
regions when jobs are created and the mobility requirements that that implies. When developments of this kind
involve the entry of transnational corporations, foreign workers must also be catered for.
This, together with the decentralization of the population of large metropolitan areas has, in some cases, been
the main driver of growth in urban locations in places inside the country. The clearest example is what can be
seen in the state of Guanajuato, where economic growth has been robust and several of its municipalities are
being integrated, as shown on map 8. The corridor that starts in the city of Leon and extends to Silao, Irapuato,
Salamanca and Celaya has generated greater demand for housing around each of these locations, forming a
housing-price cluster as far as the municipality of Queretaro.
Something similar has happened in Nuevo Leon, where GDP growth has been higher than the national level
for the last two years. Furthermore, in 2014 and 2015 the state topped the nationwide list of subsidies received
for purchasing new housing and so the incentive coincided with increased economic activity. This can be seen
on map 9.
3
See Mexico Real Estate Outlook. First Half 2015.
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Mexico Real Estate Outlook
First Half 2016
Map 3a.8
Map 3a.9
Price Clusters of the Municipalities of Guanajuato
and Queretaro, 2015
Price Clusters of the Municipalities of Nuevo León
and Coahuila, 2015
Municipalities with price dependence in Guanajuato
Municipalities with price dependence in Querétaro
Municipalities with price dependence in Nuevo León
Municipalities with price dependence in Coahuila
Source: BBVA Research with data from the national appraisals data
base.
Source: BBVA Research with data from the national appraisals data
base.
Map 3a.11
Price Clusters of the Municipalities of Yucatan,
2015
Map 3a.10
Price Clusters of the Municipalities of Jalisco, 2015
Price clusters in Yucatán
Price clusters in Jalisco
Source: BBVA Research with data from the national appraisals data
base.
Source: BBVA Research with data from the national appraisals data
base.
Here, the housing-price clusters have spread to the west, covering three municipalities of Coahuila, which are:
Ramos Arizpe, General Cepeda and Arteaga near the city of Saltillo. These are part of the chain that starts
from the metropolitan area of Monterrey, joined through the municipalities of Garcia and Santa Catarina in
Nuevo Leon.
As we can see on map 10, in the western region, the state of Jalisco is very similar to what happens in Nuevo
Leon; it enjoys above national-average economic growth-rates and the state received the second largest
subsidies 2014 and 2015. The municipalities that continue to spread westward in Jalisco formed the largest
cluster of metropolitan areas in the country in 2015, even larger than that the Monterrey cluster and second
in number of municipalities after Guanajuato and Queretaro. The municipalities that make up this cluster
are: Ahualulco de Mercado, Ameca, Atotonilco el Alto, El Salto, Guadalajara, Juanacatlán, Tala, Tepatitlán de
Morelos, Tonalá, Tototlán, Tlaquepaque, Tlajomulco de Zúñiga, Zapopan and Zapotlanejo.
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Mexico Real Estate Outlook
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Finally, on map 9 we have the case of the Yucatan Peninsula. This is particularly interesting since between
2014 and 2015 several clusters of municipalities where there was housing-price dependency disappeared.
“ ” ( "ƒ"# quarter of 2015, has entered a process of gradual price recovery. However, this mechanism could increase
the differences in the property market in the region both in value and in the characteristics of the homes sold,
because we must not overlook the fact that these markets are for holiday housing. Once an equilibrium has
been reached under these conditions, it is very likely that new clusters of municipalities are formed with price
]
Conclusions
The dispersion of clusters of municipalities with housing-price dependencies in the country has three causes.
• ( !")< ( (
restricted growth in almost all cities. Second, the demand for increasingly expensive housing, which has
made the features of social housing more expensive, along with historically low interest rates and repayment
terms close to 20 years and the increase in the maximum amount of funding granted by the Infonavit –now
in pesos instead of minimum wages– have all made mortgages more available to workers, who can aspire
to housing which increasingly approaches the mid-range segments. Thirdly, increased economic activity in
some regions of the country has involved the creation of clusters of municipalities where labour mobility has
increased, thus increasing housing needs. Therefore, the idea that housing should be built in places with the
highest concentration of the population should also be discarded. This is because, as we have already seen,
the demand for housing is determined not only by the existence of families that need a home, but by the subset
(
&
economic growth.
It is encouraging that economic activity in some regions is encouraging the development of cities, especially
because in these cases, job creation is supported by structural factors, such as investment in the automotive
industry. This also contributes to the process of decentralising the Mexico City megalopolis.
However, there are regions in the country where an effort is still required to integrate orderly and sustainable
cities in the long term. Such are the cases of the states of Oaxaca and Chiapas, where the clusters with lowest
price levels in the country are found. Moreover, tourist areas, such as those in the state of Quintana Roo, must
adopt a more integrated urban policy, because although this market is directed to the holiday home segment,
it also requires an effort to keep long-term jobs and permanent residents to increase demand for services and
consolidate their employment residence.
References
Monkkonen, P. (2012). La segregación residencial en el México Urbano: niveles y patrones. Revista de
Estudios Urbano Regionales. Vol 138 (114). 125-146 p.p. May.
Taltavull, P. y López E. (2015). Los precios de la vivienda entre mercados: efectos de transmisión. Document
presented at the Regional Sciences International Conference. November 18-20, 2015. University of Alicante,
Spain.
Trivezbielsa, F. (2004). Economía Espacial: una disciplina en auge. Revista Estudios de Economía Aplicada.
Vol. 22-3. 409-429 p.p.
Haining, R. (2004). Spatial Data Analysis. Theory and Practice. Cambridge University Press. 432 p.p.
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Mexico Real Estate Outlook
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Box 1. Methodology to assess the spatial dependence of housing prices
This section presents the basic spatial econometrics
techniques for obtaining the degree of correlation
between regions of the country where housing
transactions are carried out. That is, the model raises
the issue of the lack of statistical independence among
certain municipalities, assuming that those who can
provide them have neighbouring municipalities with
similar price levels. Therefore, in this context of
$(
(
neighbourhood in geographic space.
Where: i,j Wij. So that the Moran index can take
negative or positive values depending upon whether
a positive or negative correlation exists.
The other requirement for conceptualising
spatial dependence is the criteria for determining
neighbourhoods, because this affects the correlation
index. In this study, two regions are considered to
be are neighbours if they have a common border,
regardless of its length, including vertices.
Let Nj be the group of all the municipalities that are
part of municipality j. That is, Nj={
of j— they have a common border or vertex with another
municipality. If we have n municipalities, then we
matrix W={wij} of order nXn. If the municipality i is not
a neighbour of municipality j, then wij=0. Conversely,
if both municipalities are neighbours, then wij™"
( dependence. Given the average price of housing in a
given area, we can determine the presence of identical
or similar prices in the neighbouring areas. When one
price facilitates the presence of a similar price in its
neighbourhood, it is said that there is positive spatial
correlation. Conversely, if a price makes the existence
of similar values less likely in the surrounding area,
then there would be a negative spatial correlation.
•((
(
then we say that there is no spatial correlation.
‡ matrix, which we call the called “” by the
following expression:
This matrix, containing wij elements shows the
intensity of interdependence between each pair of
municipalities i and j. Each wij element is standardized
by the total of the row to which it belongs, so that
( (
from its neighbours is equally weighted, regardless
of the total number of residents in each municipality.
According to Cliff and Ord (1981) when the sample
size is large enough (as we believe it is in our study),
the standardized Morán index Z(I) is distributed as a
}'
Z(I) means
Z(I)
of (positive or negative) spatial autocorrelation.
The Moran (1948) and Geary (1954) indices are
among the most relevant statistics for measuring the
degree of spatial correlation. In our analysis we use
the former because, as the calculations are applied
to cross products, it gives the distance between the
average value of the observations, of the average of
its neighbouring observations. The Moran index is
given by the following expression:
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Mexico Real Estate Outlook
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The Moran scatterplot is another very useful tool
for discovering the degree of spatial dependence
between regions. The X-axis on the graph shows the
observations of the variable standardised to the
average price of the sample and the Y-axis shows the
spatial lag of this variable, also standardised with the
average sample of its neighbouring municipalities. In
this way, the four quadrants classify the different types
of spatial dependence. If the cloud of observations
is spread across the four quadrants, it very likely
indicates the absence of spatial autocorrelation.
Conversely, when observations are concentrated
above the diagonal that crosses the quadrants I (upper
right) and III (bottom left), there is a high positive or
a high negative spatial correlation respectively. If the
values are concentrated in the remaining quadrants
then the dependence is zero.
(
through LISA statistical ( !
Association).1
From the calculation of the Morán index Ii, we can
discover whether the contribution of the observations
of the overall value of the dependency is statistically
(
of the distribution of prices which are considered
The results for diagrams of 2014 and 2015 (Graph
R2.1 and R2.2) show a high concentration of data
in Quadrant I (top right), with a gradient in each
case given by the Moran index, which goes from
0.25 in 2014 to 0.31 in 2015, increasing the spatial
correlation.
Figure B1.1
Figure B1.2
Moran Scatterplot 2014 Appraisals
Moran Index
Moran Scatterplot 2015 Appraisals
Moran Index
The results of Moran scatterplot for the assessments
made in 2014 and 2015 place standardized
observations of total transactions for the respective
years on the x-axis. The spatial lag of the same
variable is placed on the y-axis, obtained from the
product of the W matrix with the average market
value in those municipalities that meet the condition
of being in the vicinity.
The Moran scatterplot represents (in each of
the quadrants) possible combinations of spatial
dependence for the total market values of all
municipalities in the country where home appraisals
were made.
Moran’s I: 0.316292
22
15
13
Appraisals lag (W) 2015
Appraisals lag (W) 2014
Moran’s I: 0.251474
26
4
-7
-18
4
-5
-14
-23
-29
-29
-18
-7
4
Appraisals 2014
15
-23
26
Source: BBVA Research with data from the national appraisals data base.
-14
-5
4
Appraisals 2015
13
22
Source: BBVA Research with data from the national appraisals data base.
1
The proof of the hypothesis of the LISA test indicator must meet two conditions. First, the statistical value obtained for each of the observations must provide information on the existence of a spatial clustering of similar values around the neighbourhood. Second, that the sum of the value of the statistic for all
observations must be proportional to a global spatial association indicator.
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Mexico Real Estate Outlook
First Half 2016
+
( been taken into account in this calculation. Of the
2457, appraisals were conducted each year in just
over 50% of the municipalities; this also indicates a
high degree of market concentration.
increases its value means that areas in neighbouring
regions with similar characteristics would lose value.
References
Moran P. (1948). “The interpretation of statistical
maps”. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. No.
10, 243-251 p.p.
This positive autocorrelation in most of the sample
would imply that, in regions where some municipalities
make clusters of housing prices, an increase or
decrease in market values would encourage the
same behaviour in the municipalities that are in their
respective neighbourhoods. Conversely, a negative
correlation would indicate a reciprocal effect between
housing prices, where the fact that a building
Geary, R. (1954). “The contiguity ratio and statistical
maping”. The incorporates statistician. No. 5, 115-145
p.p.
Cliff, A. y J. Ord (1972). “Testing for spatial
autocorrelation among regression residuals”.
Geographical Analysis. No. 4, 267-284 p.p.
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Mexico Real Estate Outlook
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3.b Mortgage essential in housing demand
Much has been said about the cheapening of mortgage loans offered by commercial banks. In addition to this,
(
primary cause of the development of the housing market. But, how much have these conditions contributed
to increasing access to housing and therefore demand? In this section we propose to measure the impact of
declining interest rates and increased limits on mortgage loans offered by banks. We see that the effect of
increasing purchasing power of households has been positive, but the cost of credit appears to have reached
its lower limit, considering the current level of funding rates.
The mortgage market is growing steadily
The balance of the mortgage portfolio exceeded 1.8 billion pesos in real terms at the end of 2015. The Infonavit,
with a portfolio of little more than a billion pesos, has been the the alternative for most people seeking credit as
a way to a housing solution, although banking gives greater amounts of funding. The second most used option
is the mortgage credit offered by commercial banks, which reached 600 thousand million pesos also in real
terms, thus recovering the ground lost in the 1995 crisis. In both cases the quality of the portfolio, measured
through the delinquency rate has improved substantially over previous years. The Infonavit delinquencies fell
from over 13% in 2003 to around 7% currently without considering the extended portfolio. The bank exceeded
25% delinquency after the 1995 crisis, reaching 3% at the end of 2015. In this private sector mortgage portfolio,
there have been attempts by players such as Sofoles or Sofomes to increase the supply of credit, but it is clear
(
((
Figure 3b.1
Figure 3b.2
Mortgage Loan Balance
Trillions of constant pesos
Mortgage Loan Balance
Billions of constant pesos and %
2.0
800
35
1.8
700
30
1.6
600
25
1.4
500
1.2
400
1.0
300
0.8
200
0.6
100
5
0.4
0
0
Infonavit Commercial banks
15
10
Jan-95
Mar-96
May-97
Jul-98
Sep-99
Nov-00
Jan-02
Mar-03
May-04
Jul-05
Sep-06
Nov-07
Jan-09
Mar-10
May-11
Jul-12
Sep-13
Nov-14
1Q98
4Q98
3Q99
2Q00
1Q01
4Q01
3Q02
2Q03
1Q04
4Q04
3Q05
2Q06
1Q07
4Q07
3Q08
2Q09
1Q10
4Q10
3Q11
2Q12
1Q13
4Q13
3Q14
2Q15
0.2
0.0
20
Commercial banks
Auxiliary agencies
Sofomes
Fovissste Other Development banks
Source: BBVA Research with Bank of Mexico data
Development banks
Sofoles
Delinquency (rhs)
Source: BBVA Research with Bank of Mexico data
The increase in the balance of the mortgage portfolio is due to the continuous origination of both public
institutions and private intermediaries. In the current decade, several efforts have been made to encourage
{
solutions by public institutions, mainly by the Infonavit, initially had replaced mortgage credit for new housing
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Mexico Real Estate Outlook
First Half 2016
using their credit for purchasing previously-owned houses rather than new ones. Between 2003 and 2004,
the proportion of mortgages for previously-owned home was around 10% of total loans for acquisition; this
Z[#
(1 In a similar vein, the credits for improvement allowed
people to use this option as a better housing solution instead of a mortgage. The result was a fall in mortgage
loans from 2010 to 2013. In 2014 this trend was reversed, in both the number of credits and the amount of
K$
[ƒZ"""
pesos to 850,000, as well as the change in conditions from the number of minimum wages to pesos.This
meant there was a lowering of the nominal interest rate and the possibility of negative equity was eliminated.
Figure 3b.3
Figure 3b.4
Origination of the Infonavit Mortgage
Thousands of loans
Origination of the Infonavit Mortgage
Billions of constant pesos
475
2010
446
2011
422
2012
135
381
387
393
2013
2014
2015
139
123
107
2010
Source: BBVA Research with Infonavit data
Note: Does not take Apoyo Infonavit into account
2011
2012
2013
114
120
2014
2015
Source: BBVA Research with Infonavit data
Note: Does not take Apoyo Infonavit into account
The banking side of the story differs little. From 2010 to 2014 it was observed that the number of mortgage
loans and the amount granted grew steadily, only during 2015 did the number of loans decrease. We attribute
( '
( improvement of credit conditions offered by the banks. As already mentioned in previous issues of Mexico
Real Estate Outlook, interest rates have declined year after year, the repayment term has increased to 20
years and the loan-to-value-of-housing ratio have all boosted demand for bank mortgage loans. Only in the
last year have we see a decrease in the number of loans, but not in the amount loaned, which we associate
with smaller credits in partnership, because innovations in products offered by public institutions have led
them to take a greater part in mid-range segments by increasing credit limits. Improved credit conditions by
commercial banks is attributable to macroeconomic stability and strong competition between banks. Further
evidence of competition is the increase in loans for payment of liabilities, a product which reached 10% of
banking originations in the last year. These loans are a mortgage whose resources pay the mortgage from
}
$(
gained relevance in the last two.
1
At the end of 2015 this ratio reached 37%. See “More equitable mortgage loan solutions” in this issue of Mexico Real Estate Outlook.
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Mexico Real Estate Outlook
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Figure 3b.5
Figure 3b.6
Origination of the Bank Mortgage by Product
Thousands of loans
Origination of the Bank Mortgage by Product
Billions of constant pesos
180
160
160
140
140
120
120
100
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
20
20
0
0
2010
2011
Acquisition
2012
2013
2014
Liquidity & Liabilities
2010
2015
2011
Acquisition
Other
Source: BBVA Research with CNBV data
2012
2013
Other
Liquidity & Liabilities
2014
2015
Source: BBVA Research with CNBV data
K favourable mortgage loan conditions offered by commercial banks, is the growth of private formal employment,
@++(
the Mexico’s leading mortgage provider. Among workers, those with income greater than 5 times the minimum
wage often apply for bank mortgages.2 The number of workers with this income level has also increased
steadily in the IMSS, at a rate of around 4% in the current decade (although ENOE reports the contrary in the
overall labour market). This all means that the potential the market for commercial banks and the Infonavit has
grown. The importance of workers earning over 5 times the minimum wage is not limited to banking, but also
affects the Infonavit, as the loans of this subset of workers provide the resources for cross-subsidization to
low-income workers accredited by the Infonavit.3
Figure 3b.7
Figure 3b.8
Workers Insured in the IMSS
Millions of workers and annual % change
IMSS Workers Earning + 5 times the MW
Millions of workers and annual % change
20
6
18
5
16
14
3
8
2
4
4.5
7
6
3.5
12
6
8
4.0
4
10
5.0
3.0
5
2.5
4
2.0
3
1.5
2
1.0
1
2
1
0.5
0
Jan-10
0
Dec-10 Nov-11
Temporary
Oct-12
Permanent
Sep-13
Aug-14
0.0
Jan-10
Jul-15
Annual % change (rhs)
0
Dec-10 Nov-11
Oct-12
Income > 5 MW
Source: BBVA Research with IMSS data
Sep-13
Aug-14
Jul-15
Annual % change (rhs)
Source: BBVA Research with IMSS data
2
Over 75% of banking credits are aimed at private salaried workers, of these, just over 95% reported incomes of over 5 times the minimum wage.
While the number of workers has grown at an average rate of 4% since 2010, the proportion of temporary workers has also increased, from below 10% to
about 15%.
3
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Better mortgage conditions increase access to housing
The actors increasing the demand for housing can be grouped as: family income, long-term expectations and
access to mortgage loans. In particular, we have seen that public and private mortgage loans have improved
( the conditions of the Infonavit loan, in addition to the guaranteed compensation in the case of Fovisste, are
(
reversed the downward trend in mortgage loans.
Figure 3b.9
Figure 3b.10
Bank Interest Rate for Purchase
Moving average of annual interest rate
Bank Mortgage Loan Term
Moving average of term in years
12
24
11
22
20
10
18
9
16
8
14
7
12
10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
6
New
Existing
New
Source: BBVA Research with CNBV data
Existing
Source: BBVA Research with CNBV data
Commercial banking mortgage lending for new or previously-owned house purchase, has seen lower interest
rates, higher credit limits and loan-to-home-value ratios of up to 95%. This has greatly improved access to
mortgage loans for families, so that demand has grown steadily. With lower interest rates and longer-term
averages, payment per thousand decreases and therefore the monthly mortgage payment is lower for a home
of equal value and given credit risk. With the increase of the loan amount in proportion to the value of housing,
borrowers required smaller deposits or could opt for a higher-priced housing, meaning they could pay for
their home more quickly or acquire a better one. The result is that families who previously could not obtain
(
housing market, or otherwise obtain more valuable housing, despite the increase in prices. In other words,
the cheapening of credit has generated an income effect on families, resulting in an increase in housing
affordability.
In order to get a better idea of how much the cheapening of mortgage loans has contributed, we calculated the
purchasing power of families for acquiring a property of this type. From the income from work, we calculated
the households’ credit capacity. The amount of the loan would cover 90% of the value of the home and the
family would have to make the 10% down payment. Affordable housing must be consistent with local supply,
because, even if the household obtained a loan and the required down payment, if there were no supply of
accessibility measures, as most of the indicators of this type tend to refer to the lower relative value of homes
or the cost of mortgages, but they do not necessarily mean that the current housing supply it is within that
budget.
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Mexico Real Estate Outlook
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We calculated families’ earned income based on information from the National Survey of Income and the
Household Expenditure Survey 2010, 2012 and 2014 (ENIGH).. We calculated their credit worthiness based
on their income with interest rates of 2010-2015 and examined whether there was a supply of housing within
that budget available in their area. In this way we elaborated the distribution by housing segment, namely
social, middle and high-segments for each year of the period under study. This distribution is shifted to the right
each year, which is interpreted as meaning that with each passing year, households can buy a home of greater
value in each of said segments. Another result is that some of the families who, in a given year could not afford
housing because their budget was not high enough for the current supply of housing in the state, would –with
the cheapening of mortgages– at least have been able to obtain one of these properties in the social housing
segment. In this regard, some families also left this segment and joined the mid-range, or left the mid-range
and joined the residential segment. The latter is consistent with the growth of the bank mortgage market in the
two segments of greater value.
Figure 3b.11
Figure 3b.12
Affordable Social Housing
Distribution of the value of affordable housing
Average Price of Affordable Social Housing
Thousands of constant pesos
370
365
3.6
360
9.2
355
350
8.6
345
340
5.2
2.7
335
330
325
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
Affordable housing value
2010
0.6
320
0.7
315
2010
2015
Source: BBVA Research with CNBV, Inegi & RUV data
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Source: BBVA Research with CNBV, Inegi & RUV data
In the housing segment we can see how from 2010 to 2015 the distribution of families that could buy a
home moved to the right. As a benchmark to measure by how much purchasing power improved, we used
the average value of housing available in this segment. In 2010, the average value of affordable housing
was almost 335,000 pesos, but by 2015, on average this value had reached 363,000 pesos. Increases in
affordability through bank mortgage grew until 2014, but in 2015 the increase was already becoming more
moderate. This was mostly a result of interest rates no longer falling in 2015 in response to pressure by the
central bank’s monetary policy.
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Mexico Real Estate Outlook
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Figure 3b.13
Figure 3b.14
Average Affordable Housing
Distribution of the value of affordable housing
Average Price of Affordable Housing
Thousands of constant pesos
980
9.5
960
24.5
940
23.0
920
14.0
900
7.1
880
860
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
Affordable housing value
2010
1.4
840
2015
2010
Source: BBVA Research with CNBV, Inegi & RUV data
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Source: BBVA Research with CNBV, Inegi & RUV data
The effect of cheaper mortgages is multiplied by the higher the value of housing, which guarantees the loan.
For example, in 2010 the average price of affordable housing was 892,000 pesos, which increased to 970
thousand pesos. As in the case of social housing, affordability moved increasingly upwards until 2015, where
after increasing almost 25,000 pesos the previous year, it only increased by 9,500 pesos.
The story is similar in the residential segment. Affordable housing prices rose from 2.2 million in 2010 to 2.4
million in 2015. We also saw the biggest leap in affordable housing which exceeded 60,000 pesos in 2014,
but it only increased by 24,000 pesos in 2015. However, it is clear that all segments improved their purchasing
power even with the increase in house prices seen in recent years.
Figure 3b.15
Figure 3b.16
Average Residential Housing
Distribution of the value of affordable housing
Average Price of Affordable Residential Housing
Thousands of constant pesos
2,500
2,450
24.0
2,400
61.7
2,350
57.9
2,300
35.2
17.9
2,250
2,200
1.5
2.0
2.5
Affordable housing value
2010
3.0
2,150
2010
2015
Source: BBVA Research with CNBV, Inegi & RUV data
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Source: BBVA Research with CNBV, Inegi & RUV data
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Mexico Real Estate Outlook
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We have also seen that families recognize the opportunity offered by the different sources of mortgage
}
~` ( •!")"!")[
$
in this category increased by more than 10 percentage points, replacing savings and consumer credit. But also
it partly means that a lower cost of consumer credit released borrowing capacity for home purchases.
Figure 3b.17 y 3b.18
Financial and Capital Expenditure
Percentage of total expenditure
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
16 .2
26.0
9.3
7.3
2008
7.0
8.7
2010
19 .3
18.2
7.0
7.0
2012
17.9
6.1
2014
Other monetary financial and capital expenditures
Payment of credit card to bank or trading house
Losses in home business
Deposit to savings account, batches, savings, etc.
Payment of debts of household members to the company where they work and/or other persons or institutions
Services and materials for repair, maintenance and/or expansion of housing
Loans to third parties
Source: BBVA Research with ENIGH 2008, 2010, 2012 & 2014, Inegi data
Mortgages will continue to help demand but with less effect
Since the beginning of the last decade we have seen that the mortgage market, and therefore the housing
market, has grown. Although it fell in 2008 and 2009, the balance has been positive for all participants. Many
families have been able to obtain some kind of housing solution, which can already be seen in a decrease
&
(€((
(
(
the main driver of demand and has led to an increase in access to the housing market. Nevertheless, as the
driver of demand, the credit beta seems to be reaching a stable equilibrium. It is clear that both the public and
private sectors will continue to offer mortgages, but it will be employment and income that will have the most
favourable effects on demand.
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3.c Infonavit maintains credit placement stable
The new Infonavit Financial Plan for the period 2016-2020 presents no major changes in the strategic design.
For this reason, this section of Mexico Real Estate Outlook we will focus on its credit placement plan.
Annual Operational Programme 2015
The Annual Operational Programme 2015 that we reviewed last year contained a mortgage loan origination
(!")[('
owned housing was reduced from 390,000 to 350,000, while loans for improvement went from 166,000 to
155,000. However, by the end of 2015 the number of mortgages had increased, something that had not
happened for a decade. The Institute not only exceeded the provisions of the Annual Operating Plan (AOP)
2015, but reversed a decline in mortgages. In particular, origination of the Mejoravit product almost doubled
the levels of 2014.
Figure 3c.1
Figure 3c.2
Origination of Mortgages
Thousands of mortgages
Programmed and Performed Origination
Origination of mortgages and percentage
800
350
700
300
500
53
122
119
153
145
300
200
294
250
294
284
166
231
129
135
120
155
113
132
150
119
122
135
329
100
281
255
255
261
60
40
50
228
20
0
0
0
2010
2011
New homes
2012
2013
2014
Existing homes
2015
100
80
100
353
180
140
114
200
165
200
160
261
600
400
190
New
2016*
AOP 2015
Improvement
Source: BBVA Research with Infonavit data
* Estimated originations during 2016
Existing
Performed 2015
Mejoravit
Effectiveness (rhs)
Source: BBVA Research with Infonavit data
•&!")<
(
was observed. We attribute the year-end result largely to the increased credit limit from 483,000 pesos to
850,000, and the change of mortgage product funding conditions from the number of minimum wages to
pesos. The placement of loans for new housing was 13% higher than scheduled, which originated 261,000
mortgages. Similarly, funding for previously-owned housing exceeded the estimate by 14% and 135,000 loans
were granted for this housing solution. The Mejoravit product is surprising and 294,000 loans of this type were
}!")<
!")"
purchase were granted.
36
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Mexico Real Estate Outlook
First Half 2016
Figure 3c.3
Origination of Mortgage Loans by Type of Housing
Thousand of mortgages and percentage
70
160
60
140
120
50
100
40
80
30
60
20
40
10
Existing homes
Zac
Ver
Yuc
Tlax
Tamps
Tab
Son
Sin
SLP
QR
Qro
Pue
Oax
NL
Nay
Mor
Mich
Jal
New homes
Mex
Gro
Hgo
Gto
Dgo
CDMX
Col
Coah
Chis
Chih
BCS
Camp
BC
20
Ags
0
0
Effectiveness (rhs)
Source: BBVA Research with Infonavit data
At state level, the regions with highest economic activity were again those that contracted the largest loans.
‹ ( „
( + @$
$
to this pattern is Mexico City, which, although it has the greatest economic activity, has less social housing
options, the main segment served by the Infonavit credit. In the three aforementioned states, more loans were
formalised than were programmed for 2015. Two other states stand out, Chihuahua and Coahuila, where
more than 20,000 mortgage loans were placed. Only six states did not reach the expected demand: Chiapas,
Morelos, Nayarit, Puebla, Queretaro and San Luis Potosi; except for Morelos and Nayarit, the rest achieved
over 90%, very close to meeting the target. Morelos is a different case. It only reached 62% of the expected
placement; this situation is similar to that observed in commercial banking where demand for mortgage credit
decreased in the state.
Annual Operational Programme 2016
Figure 3c.4
Figure 3c.5
Origination Programmes 2015 and 2016
Thousands of loans
Financing Programme 2015-2020
Billions of pesos and thousands of credits
180
New
300
350
360
365
370
375
160
250
159
140
200
120
150
100
100
124
132
141
300
149
250
200
80
50
60
0
165
170
175
185
180
100
20
50
AOP 2015
AOP 2016
0
2016
Existing
150
40
0
Mejoravit
400
350
2017
2018
2019
2020
Financing expenditures (lhs)
Mortgage
Mejoravit
Performed 2015
Source: BBVA Research with Infonavit data
Source: BBVA Research with Infonavit data
37
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Mexico Real Estate Outlook
First Half 2016
}  !")* credits over 2015. There is practically no difference in any of the major segments. Credits for the purchase
of new and previously-owned housing are very similar to the 2014 estimates for 2015, and are similar for
improvement loans. However, if we compare the 2016 OAP with the loans actually granted during 2015, the
Infonavit should expect a decrease in demand in each of these three areas. The largest decrease would be in
Mejoravit, followed by acquisition of new housing and almost no difference for previously-owned housing. The
2016-2020 Financial Plan itself indicates a possible decline in demand compared to the provisions of previous
years.1 However, greater generation of employment in the IMSS and better the credit conditions offered by the
Institute could continue to maintain the demand for mortgages.
Figure 3c.6
Origination of Mortgage Loans by State 2016
Thousand of mortgages and percentage
60
120
100
50
80.9
Existing homes
Tlax
Oax
Camp
Gro
Zac
Mor
BCS
Col
Nay
Dgo
Chis
Tab
Ags
SLP
Mich
Sin
Yuc
Pue
New homes
Hgo
QR
Qro
Son
CDMX
BC
Ver
0
Tamps
20
Gto
10
Coah
40
Mex
20
Chih
60
Jal
80
30
NL
40
0
% share (rhs)
Source: BBVA Research with Infonavit data
As in previous years, Nuevo Leon, Jalisco and Mexico State may achieve most mortgage loans, mainly new
housing. Other states that have gained importance in the number of mortgages achieved are Chihuahua,
Coahuila and Guanajuato where economic activity has also improved. The case of Mexico City is the most
unusual, because it is the only one where previously-owned housing is expected to play the leading role. This
phenomenon is to be expected in a city where space for new housing construction (unless it is vertical) is very
(
(
(
up. Something similar happens in other high-density cities around the world.
Figure 3c.7
Origination of Mortgage Loans by State 2016
Billions of pesos and percentage
120
100
80.8
80
60
40
New homes
Tlax
Oax
Camp
Zac
Gro
Nay
BCS
Col
Mor
Dgo
Chis
Tab
Ags
Yuc
Existing homes
Mich
Sin
SLP
Pue
Hgo
QR
Qro
BC
Son
CDMX
Tamps
Ver
Gto
Coah
Mex
Chih
Jal
20
NL
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
0
% share (rhs)
Source: BBVA Research with Infonavit data
1
See Infonavit. “Plan Financiero 2016-2020” (“Financial Plan 2016-2020)”. p. 138
38
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Mexico Real Estate Outlook
First Half 2016
}
!")* } ƒ"# )< ? country –a high degree of concentration– whether measured in the number of credits or their amount.
Figure 3c.8
Figure 3c.9
!"
housing mortgage loans
!#
housing mortgage loans
14
50
R² = 0.4411
45
12
ρ = 66.42
40
10
30
Loans
Loans
35
25
R² = 0.132
20
ρ = 36.34
15
8
6
4
10
2
5
0
0
500
1,000
1,500
Affiliates
2,000
0
2,500
0
Source: BBVA Research with Infonavit data
500
1,000
1,500
Affiliates
2,000
2,500
Source: BBVA Research with Infonavit data
Finally, we review the relationship between the number of workers who do not yet have a mortgage and the
('}
presented by the Infonavit on members with no loans and how many of these are expected to request them,
the relationship with previously-owned housing looks more accurate than that of new housing. In other words,
placing credit to buy previously-owned housing has a closer relationship to the potential demand at state level
((
of loans for new housing and the described potential demand is not as close, which could indicate a shift in
demand towards other cities. An example of this may be precisely City of Mexico, where low-price housing
new housing in other cities.
The Infonavit could surpass the 2016 OAP again
The new 2016 Annual Operational Programme forecasts modest demand. There are virtually no changes from
2015, but there is a decrease compared with what was actually placed during the previous year. However,
changes to encourage demand made by the Institute could maintain levels for their mortgage products. In
addition to this, a greater number of members, as inferred from the constant growth registered in IMSS workers,
could keep demand relatively stable. While we do not expect requests for mortgages from the Infonavit to
(}!)"*
39
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Mexico Real Estate Outlook
First Half 2016
4. Statistical appendix
Table 4.1
Annual macroeconomic indicators
2007
Real GDP1 (annual % change)
Private consumption, real (annual % change)
Government consumption, real (annual % change)
Investment in construction, real (annual % change)
Residential
Non-residential
Formal private employment (IMSS)2, total
Annual % change
Avge. salary of cont. (IMSS, nominal pesos per day, avge.)
Real annual % change
Real total wages (IMSS, annual % change)
Minimum general salary (daily, nominal pesos)
Real annual % change
Consumer prices (end of period, annual % change)
TIIE 28 average (%)
10-year interest rate, 10 year Govt bond (M10)
2015
2016p
3.1
1.2
-4.5
5.1
4.0
3.8
1.6
2.3
2.5
3.0
1.9
-6.5
5.7
4.8
4.7
2.5
1.8
2.8
2.5
3.0
2.2
1.7
2.5
3.3
1.3
2.4
2.3
5.1
6.2
-5.7
-0.2
3.0
2.0
-4.5
1.4
0.9
4.0
2.4
-11.6
-0.6
4.1
1.4
-4.9
3.1
2.9
6.1
9.6
-0.7
0.1
2.3
2.5
-4.1
0.0
-0.7
14,145 14,436 13,994 14,524 15,154 15,856 16,409 16,991 17,724
4.2
2.1
-3.1
3.8
4.3
4.6
3.5
3.5
4.3
211.0 222.3 231.6 239.2 249.3 260.1 270.2 282.1 294.0
109.6
0.2
-1.0
-0.9
0.8
0.2
0.1
0.4
1.5
118.4
2.3
-4.0
1.9
5.7
5.2
3.6
3.9
5.9
48.9
50.8
53.2
55.8
58.1
60.5
63.1
65.6
69.2
7.8
-1.3
-0.4
0.6
1.0
-0.1
0.4
-0.1
0.2
3.8
6.5
3.6
4.4
3.8
3.6
4.0
4.1
2.1
7.7
8.1
6.7
4.9
4.8
4.8
4.3
3.5
3.3
7.8
8.3
8.0
6.9
6.8
5.7
5.7
6.0
6.0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2.2
2.3
1.5
1
Seasonally adjusted series.
Thousands of people
Source: BBVA Bancomer with Bank of Mexico, Conasami, Inegi & IMSS data.
2
Table 4.2
Annual construction and housing indicators
Real GDP (annual % change)
Building
Civil engineering and major works
Specialized construction work
Construction employ. (IMSS, thousands people, avg.)
Annual % change
Hydraulic cement prod. (tons, ann. % change)
Nat’l. cement consumption (tons, ann. % chge.)
Construc. comp.1 (real prod. value, ann. % chge.)
Building
Public works
Water, irrigation and sanitation
Electricity and communications
Transportation
Oil and petrochemicals
Other
Resid. construc. prices, general (ann. % change)
Construction materials (annual % change)
Labor (annual % change)
Rental equipment (annual % change)
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
4.7
3.8
-6.1
-0.5
4.1
2.5
-4.8
2.0
2.5
3.5
2.0
-11.1
-0.4
4.3
2.7
-5.2
2.5
3.2
11.2
20.0
6.7
3.6
2.9
1.0
-4.7
-2.2
0.2
2.8
-12.4
4.8
1.9
5.6
4.3
-2.5
8.6
2.7
1,203.8 1,209.5 1,103.6 1,145.5 1,199.5 1,275.2 1,289.8 1,383.5 1,504.0
6.3
0.5
-8.8
3.8
4.7
6.3
1.1
7.3
8.7
0.9
-2.8
-3.1
-2.9
1.5
2.1
-5.9
5.1
7.5
0.0
-3.7
-6.1
-5.3
1.4
2.5
-6.0
4.9
7.5
2.2
-2.2
-8.6
3.3
3.2
3.4
-3.7
-0.1
0.1
6.5
-2.3
-18.6
-5.3
6.3
2.0
-5.6
2.7
1.6
-2.1
-1.5
8.0
9.8
0.3
0.5
-4.4
-3.1
0.2
-23.4
4.3
4.9
3.7
10.5
1.9
-6.0
-7.4
-7.0
-12.6
15.4
8.2
27.0
21.4
-6.8
-2.2
-10.5
9.1
6.6
6.3
9.5
8.0
-2.8
-2.7
-7.8
2.6
-4.0
-4.2
-24.3
5.3
9.5
-7.7
14.7
3.6
-9.9
9.5
-3.2
-6.0
-31.5
21.5
6.2
36.4
10.6
2.2
-6.7
2.9
13.1
-1.0
4.8
9.3
0.4
-0.7
6.5
2.3
2.6
15.5
-1.8
5.2
10.6
-0.2
-1.4
4.5
4.5
4.4
3.5
3.1
3.3
3.8
3.2
2.9
3.5
4.2
2.9
6.9
1.8
3.2
5.3
-0.2
1.4
4.1
7.8
2016p
0.6
0.3
0.9
1.7
1
€
@$
€€
(
Source: BBVA Bancomer with Bank of Mexico, Inegi & IMSS data.
40
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Mexico Real Estate Outlook
First Half 2016
Table 4.3
Annual housing credit indicators
Number of loans granted (thousands)
Total
Infonavit
Fovissste
Commercial banks and others
Reduction1
Individual credits
$
&'*/';<>?
Total
Infonavit
Fovissste
Commercial Banks and others
Commercial banks current loan portfolio
Balance end of period (billion pesos, Dec. 2014 prices)
Past-due loans index (%)
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
567.5
376.4
48.7
142.4
38.1
529.4
670.8
421.7
76.6
172.5
73.7
597.1
725.7
458.7
68.4
198.6
79.2
646.5
746.5
494.1
90.1
162.3
80.8
665.6
632.8
447.5
100.1
85.2
39.4
593.4
639.7
475.0
87.8
76.9
30.7
609.0
599.3
445.5
75.2
78.6
23.4
575.9
571.0
421.9
64.3
84.8
26.7
544.3
537.9
380.6
65.9
91.3
25.3
512.6
545.1
387.0
63.1
94.9
26.1
519.0
599.2
393.0
64.4
141.8
19.5
579.7
90.6
52.7
10.4
27.6
138.4
64.5
17.7
56.2
167.0
142.6
31.2
128.4
197.5
152.7
39.2
113.7
173.3
131.0
59.8
72.5
178.7
135.0
51.2
69.2
259.9
138.9
40.2
80.9
255.6
122.9
36.6
96.1
265.9
111.3
38.1
116.4
292.6
118.8
41.3
132.6
303.5
122.4
40.7
140.4
190.1
2.4
235.9
2.0
268.7
2.5
287.8
3.2
287.9
4.4
333.7
3.4
371.5
3.2
417.2
3.1
447.0
3.5
505.5
3.3
583.1
3.0
1
Œ
. Do not considers “Infonavit Total” nor Second loan granted by the Infonavit.
Source: BBVA Bancomer with Bank of Mexico, ABM & CNBV data.
Table 4.4
SHF Quarterly Housing Price Index by state (annual % change)
National
Aguascalientes
Baja California
Baja California Sur
Campeche
Coahuila
Colima
Chiapas
Chihuahua
Distrito Federal
Durango
Guanajuato
Guerrero
Hidalgo
Jalisco
México
Michoacán
Morelos
Nayarit
Nuevo León
Oaxaca
Puebla
Querétaro
Quintana Roo
San Luis Potosí
Sinaloa
Sonora
Tabasco
Tamaulipas
Tlaxcala
Veracruz
Yucatán
Zacatecas
13'I
2.9
2.2
2.1
4.8
5.7
3.6
3.1
3.7
2.7
5.3
2.0
3.0
2.9
1.4
2.3
2.7
2.5
2.1
2.6
2.8
2.3
2.3
2.4
0.4
3.3
3.6
3.1
2.9
1.3
0.9
4.0
4.3
3.8
II
3.9
3.3
3.2
5.1
6.2
4.4
4.5
4.5
3.7
6.6
3.6
3.9
4.0
2.8
3.0
3.8
4.0
3.8
3.1
3.7
4.4
4.3
3.9
1.2
4.1
4.0
3.8
4.1
2.4
3.3
4.6
4.9
4.2
III
4.4
4.9
4.0
4.6
6.0
4.4
5.1
4.9
4.1
7.2
4.7
3.9
4.7
3.3
3.1
4.6
4.5
5.1
2.6
3.6
5.8
5.7
4.9
2.3
3.9
3.6
4.1
4.9
2.7
5.0
4.3
5.3
4.8
IV
4.1
5.0
3.3
3.1
4.9
3.9
4.5
4.3
3.9
7.0
5.4
3.4
4.9
3.3
2.8
4.7
4.3
5.0
1.1
2.7
5.6
5.0
5.3
1.8
3.2
2.7
3.8
4.8
3.1
5.6
3.8
4.4
4.2
14'I
5.0
6.4
4.2
2.7
4.4
4.8
4.2
4.8
5.1
8.2
7.1
3.6
6.3
3.9
4.5
6.1
4.4
5.8
1.1
3.0
6.0
5.9
6.7
2.6
3.3
2.9
5.0
5.9
5.0
7.2
4.5
4.6
4.9
II
3.4
5.2
2.7
0.8
2.4
2.9
1.9
3.3
3.5
6.8
5.6
1.9
5.1
1.5
2.7
4.8
2.1
3.9
-0.8
1.2
3.9
3.9
5.2
0.7
1.3
0.9
3.4
4.8
4.2
5.3
2.5
3.0
3.5
III
4.1
5.4
3.5
1.3
3.3
3.8
2.4
4.5
4.2
7.8
7.0
3.0
5.3
2.3
3.5
5.2
2.9
3.6
-0.2
2.6
4.4
4.2
5.6
-0.6
2.3
1.7
4.3
6.3
6.5
6.1
3.5
3.7
4.5
IV
5.1
6.7
4.2
2.4
4.7
4.7
3.9
5.5
5.0
9.2
8.1
4.3
5.2
3.7
4.0
5.4
4.1
3.7
1.5
4.3
5.5
5.0
5.4
0.2
3.6
2.9
5.3
7.2
8.2
7.7
4.6
5.2
6.5
15'I
4.9
5.8
4.0
2.8
5.3
4.5
4.3
5.5
4.5
9.0
7.8
4.8
4.2
4.6
3.1
4.7
4.7
3.4
2.1
4.7
5.6
4.9
4.5
-0.8
4.1
3.3
4.9
6.8
8.2
7.2
4.7
5.0
6.5
II
6.4
7.1
5.1
4.3
6.7
6.4
6.3
6.7
6.0
9.3
9.1
6.5
5.0
7.5
4.8
5.8
6.9
4.8
4.5
6.7
7.0
6.3
5.5
1.9
6.2
5.3
6.5
7.7
9.6
8.6
7.0
6.1
7.8
III
8.3
9.0
7.0
6.8
8.6
8.4
8.3
8.4
7.8
10.2
10.4
8.3
6.9
10.2
6.8
7.7
9.1
7.3
7.2
8.6
9.1
8.5
7.2
6.0
8.1
7.3
8.3
9.1
10.7
10.4
9.2
7.6
9.4
Source: BBVA Bancomer with SHF data.
41
www.bbvaresearch.com
IV
6.7
6.9
5.8
5.9
6.8
6.8
6.3
6.8
6.1
7.9
7.9
6.3
6.2
8.0
6.0
6.6
7.2
6.7
6.0
6.7
7.4
7.6
6.6
5.4
6.5
5.8
6.5
7.6
8.2
7.9
7.6
5.7
7.0
Mexico Real Estate Outlook
First Half 2016
Table 4.5
Quarterly macroeconomic indicators
II
0.6
2.5
0.3
-3.7
-3.9
-3.5
III
1.6
2.4
1.6
-6.3
-7.2
-5.7
IV
1.1
1.1
2.5
-4.5
-5.3
-3.9
14'I
1.1
0.1
2.0
-1.4
-2.5
-0.6
II
3.0
2.4
2.1
-1.1
0.2
-2.0
III
2.3
2.1
3.7
3.8
5.9
2.3
IV
2.6
2.6
1.8
3.8
8.5
0.4
15'I
2.5
3.3
3.1
4.0
3.9
4.0
II
2.4
2.4
2.7
2.1
2.9
1.4
III
2.6
2.8
1.2
0.5
5.1
-2.9
IV
2.5
2.6
2.0
-2.5
0.1
-4.6
II
-4.0
-4.4
-4.3
-1.4
-1.5
-4.8
-3.9
3.9
-11.4
-9.3
11.8
37.0
III
-6.9
-7.1
-7.6
-4.4
-6.3
-7.1
-7.3
-7.1
7.6
-13.6
-0.2
3.9
IV
-4.7
-6.0
-2.4
-1.9
-4.9
-6.9
-2.4
9.7
6.6
-4.1
-7.8
-7.7
14'I
-1.5
-2.2
-3.6
8.5
-2.2
-2.1
-4.1
14.8
-11.1
-0.5
-15.9
6.5
II
-0.5
-0.5
-3.6
6.1
-2.2
0.1
-4.3
-22.5
-6.5
0.4
-4.5
-1.5
III
4.1
4.7
0.0
9.3
1.7
5.2
-1.5
-9.5
-17.3
9.2
-11.7
3.3
IV
5.6
7.6
-1.9
10.6
1.8
7.2
-2.8
-6.8
-6.3
1.0
-7.9
1.2
15'I
4.4
5.7
1.5
2.6
3.4
7.9
1.1
-9.2
0.3
2.1
4.9
-5.7
II
2.9
4.0
-0.3
3.3
0.7
2.7
-0.3
-0.5
8.4
-2.3
-0.4
-3.5
III
3.5
4.0
1.0
6.1
-0.5
-0.5
1.3
-7.8
11.9
-4.7
15.2
-9.2
IV
-0.5
-0.3
-1.0
-1.2
-2.4
-2.6
-1.0
-9.6
14.6
-9.6
17.0
-8.1
12’IV
13'I
II
Home sales by organization (thousands of credits)
Infonavit
95.8
82.7
99.9
Fovissste
14.2
12.6
18.0
Banks
15.7
13.1
16.1
Total
125.6 108.5 133.9
Financing (billions of December 2015 pesos
Infonavit
29.5
23.4
27.6
Fovissste
8.2
6.8
10.0
Banks
27.5
20.9
27.0
Total
65.2
51.0
64.6
Infonavit: number of credits to buy a house (thousands)
Economic + Popular2
59.3
60.3
70.1
Traditional
26.2
15.4
20.5
Middle income
8.0
5.6
7.4
Residential
1.9
1.3
1.6
Residential Plus
0.3
0.2
0.3
Total
95.8
82.7
99.9
III
IV
14'I
II
III
IV
15'I
II
III
IV
92.1
16.0
17.4
125.5
106.0
19.2
19.4
144.6
71.8
13.7
15.0
100.5
92.8
16.8
16.2
125.8
100.2
11.1
17.7
129.0
122.3
86.4
21.5
15.4
19.9 17.41*
163.7 119.3
102.5
20.4
21.5
144.4
90.7
17.1
23.5
131.3
113.4
11.5
24.2
149.1
28.1
9.8
31.6
69.5
32.3
11.6
36.9
80.8
21.3
8.4
30.0
59.8
28.3
11.0
31.5
70.7
30.8
7.3
33.3
71.4
38.3
14.6
37.8
90.8
27.3
9.6
29.8
66.6
32.0
13.0
33.7
78.8
29.3
11.0
37.1
77.4
33.8
7.1
39.9
80.7
62.2
19.9
7.8
1.9
0.3
92.1
72.1
21.7
9.4
2.3
0.5
106.0
51.3
14.1
5.0
1.2
0.2
71.8
61.3
19.0
10.1
2.1
0.4
92.8
69.8
19.0
9.0
2.1
0.4
100.2
87.5
21.5
10.5
2.3
0.4
122.3
63.0
13.8
7.6
1.7
0.3
86.4
72.9
17.4
9.5
2.2
0.4
102.5
59.1
18.7
10.2
2.3
0.4
90.7
83.0
18.7
9.7
1.7
0.3
113.4
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.3
3.2
3.1
3.0
3.0
Real GDP (annual % change)
Real private consum., (annual % change)
Real gov. consumption, (ann. % change)
Real const. investment, (annual % change)
Residential
Non-residential
12’IV
3.4
4.2
1.5
-0.1
-0.2
-0.1
13'I
3.1
4.0
0.7
-3.2
-3.0
-3.3
Source: BBVA Bancomer with Inegi data
Table 4.6
Quarterly construction and housing indicators
Construction GDP, real (ann. % change)
Building
Construc. engineering and major works
Specialized construction work
Construc. companies1 (real ann. % change)
Building
Public works
Water, irrigation and sanitation
Electricity & communications
Transportation
Oil and petrochemicals
Other
12’IV
0.1
0.8
-2.2
1.8
1.5
0.5
-1.2
-11.3
-16.5
-0.2
11.1
24.4
13'I
-3.2
-3.0
-4.3
-2.0
-1.8
-3.4
-4.1
-28.1
-10.8
-4.0
16.6
21.6
Source: BBVA Bancomer with Inegi & Bank of Mexico data.
Table 4.7
Quarterly housing market indicators
Source: BBVA Bancomer with Bank of Mexico, CNBV, Infonavit, Fovissste & ABM data.
*As of this period includes loans with CNBV co-participation.
Table 4.8
Quarterly housing credit indicators
Commercial banks current loan portfolio
Past-due loans index (%)
3.1
3.2
3.4
3.5
1
€
@$
€€
(.
2
Includes new and existing homes.
Note: Price ranges expressed in times the minimum monthly wage (VSMM); Economic and Popular Segment (118-200), Traditional (201-350), Middle income (351-750),
Residential (751-1500) and Plus (1500 and more) SMM=2,046 pesos in 2014 in the “A” zone.
Source: BBVA Bancomer with Inegi, Infonavit, Fovissste & Bank of Mexico data.
42
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Mexico Real Estate Outlook
First Half 2016
Table 4.9
Monthly macroeconomic indicators
S.14
O
N
D J.15
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
IGAE (annual % change)
3.0
2.4
1.8
3.1
2.2
2.6
2.7
2.2
1.4
3.3
2.1
2.8
3.3
2.2
2.7
2.6
Real constr. vol. (ann. % change)1
4.7
5.5
4.5
6.7
6.4
1.0
6.0
5.6
0.9
2.3
4.4
2.5
3.6
1.1
-1.2
-1.4
Building
4.5
7.6
5.8
9.4
9.2
0.7
7.5
9.4
1.0
1.8
4.9
2.5
4.4
1.1
-0.1
-1.8
Civil engineering and major works
2.2
-2.5
-1.9
-1.4
0.2
2.5
1.9
-4.2
0.8
2.5
1.9
0.4
0.8
0.3
-4.0
0.8
Specialized construction work
12.0 10.0 12.0
9.7
2.6
-0.3
5.3
3.9
0.5
5.4
6.3
6.6
5.3
2.4
-2.0
-4.3
Formal private empl. (IMSS, mills)2 17,180 17,352 17,475 17,240 17,299 17,433 17,538 17,603 17,596 17,674 17,719 17,791 17,909 18,055 18,188 17,884
Annual % change
4.1
4.2
4.2
4.3
4.5
4.6
4.5
4.5
4.2
4.4
4.4
4.5
4.2
4.1
4.1
3.7
Average salary quote3
281.6 280.0 281.5 280.9 294.5 293.4 292.3 292.1 295.9 294.5 298.3 296.7 293.6 291.6 293.3 292.0
Real annual % change
0.4
0.3
0.7
0.7
1.2
1.0
1.2
1.1
1.5
1.3
1.6
1.6
1.7
1.6
1.9
1.8
Real total wages (IMSS, ann. % chg.)
4.5
4.5
4.9
5.0
5.8
5.7
5.8
5.7
5.8
5.8
6.1
6.1
6.0
5.7
6.1
5.6
Min. general wage (daily, pesos)
65.6 65.6 65.6 65.6 68.3 68.3 68.3 69.3 69.3 69.3 69.3 69.3 69.3 70.1 70.1 70.1
CPI (end of period, ann. % change)
4.2
4.3
4.2
4.1
3.1
3.0
3.1
3.1
2.9
2.9
2.7
2.6
2.5
2.5
2.2
2.1
TIIE 28 (average, %)
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.4
10-year Gov. bond int. rate (M10)
6.1
5.9
5.8
5.9
5.2
5.6
5.9
5.9
6.0
6.1
6.1
6.1
6.1
6.1
6.2
6.2
1
industrial activity index
Thousands of persons
3
Nominal pesos per day for the number of IMSS-registered workers.
Source: BBVA Bancomer with Bank of Mexico, Inegi & IMSS data
2
Table 4.10
Monthly construction and housing indicators
Constr. emp. (IMSS, thousands)
Annual % change
Cement sales (tons, ann. % chge.)
Cement cons. per inh. (ann. % chg.)1
Contruction prices (ann. % chge.)
Materials (annual % change)
Labor (annual % change)
Mach. Rental (annual % change)
S.14
O
N
D J.15
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
1,445 1,486 1,490 1,403 1,426 1,453 1,463 1,484 1,487 1,516 1,536 1,553 1,554 1,571 1,561 1,445
9.4
11.4
11.4
4.1
4.3
3.6
4.1
10.1
8.5
8.5
4.2
4.3
3.7
4.6
10.3
7.7
7.7
4.4
4.5
3.8
3.8
10.7
14.2
14.2
4.5
4.5
3.9
5.1
11.6
5.6
5.6
4.4
4.5
4.0
4.1
11.6
10.7
10.7
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.1
11.1
10.4
10.4
3.7
3.6
4.1
4.5
11.5
13.5
13.5
3.8
3.7
3.9
5.1
9.7
7.2
7.2
3.9
3.9
3.7
5.7
10.4
10.1
10.1
3.7
3.6
3.8
5.7
9.5
8.3
8.3
3.7
3.5
4.0
6.0
9.4
6.3
6.3
4.5
4.6
3.9
6.4
7.5
12.7
12.7
4.1
4.1
3.9
6.9
5.7
5.1
5.1
4.6
4.6
3.8
6.7
4.7
1.4
1.4
4.6
4.7
3.8
7.6
3.0
0.0
0.0
4.4
4.4
3.8
6.8
1
The volume of cement production is used as a proxy for consumption.
Source: BBVA Bancomer with Bank of Mexico, Inegi & IMSS data
Table 4.11
Monthly housing credit indicators
S.14
O
N
D J.15
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
C. banks loan port. (bal., bn pesos*) 481.5 488.3 498.6 505.5 512.2 515.0 524.2 527.2 529.9 534.9 541.1 546.7 555.8 564.8 574.2 583.1
Annual % change
12.3 13.1 13.0 13.1 12.6 12.6 12.6 13.3 13.0 13.9 15.3 15.1 15.4 15.7 15.2 15.3
Total annual cost (CAT, average)
13.3 13.3 13.3 13.3 13.3 13.2 13.2 13.2 12.5 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.5 12.5 12.6 12.6
Note: As of March 2013 Mortgage Sofoles transformed into Sofomes
* December 2015 pesos
Source: BBVA Bancomer with Bank of Mexico, Conasami, INEGI, IMSS & CNBV data
43
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Mexico Real Estate Outlook
First Half 2016
5. Special topics included in previous issues
First Half 2015
Drivers of housing prices in Mexico
$
The Infonavit 2015-19 Financial Plan. Financial soundness and a greater amount of lending are key features
Second Half 2014
Transmission of monetary policy to the mortgage market
The lower benchmark interest rate could drive residential building
Mortgage portability
First Half 2014
Demand for mortgage credit: employment is the key
New housing after the real estate boom
Financing retirement with real estate assets
The Infonavit Financial Plan 2014-2018. A focus on quality
August 2013
Medium-term housing needs
The new housing policy: between short and long term
Financial reform and mortgage lending
The “Ésta es tu casa” subsidy program 2014 operating rules
Listed Homebuilders: a Foretold Ending?
The impact of the crisis of public-sector developers
January 2013
Non-residential construction is the structure on which the sector builds
Housing subsidies: back to basics
Has housing construction changed in recent years?
Changes in the industry from the standpoint of the homebuilders
Infonavit 2013-2017 Financial Plan: Strategies for new challenges
July 2012
Accessibility to housing has improved in the last decade
The potential of housing mortgage supply in accordance with the quality of demand
Looking back: the good and the not so good of housing policy
Looking forward: the challenges in housing policies
January 2012
ž
žŸ'
Infonavit: the 2012-2016 Financial Plan and the new Law
Available in www.bbvaresearch.com in Spanish and English
44
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Mexico Real Estate Outlook
First Half 2016
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Mexico Real Estate Outlook
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This report has been produced by
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Other Publications:
Global
Economic Outlook
4TH QUARTER 2015 | ECONOMIC SCENARIOS UNIT
Mexico
Economic Outlook
4th QUARTER 2015 | MEXICO UNIT
01
02
03
Slowdown in global growth in
2015, with a limited
improvement in 2016.
A
djustment among the
emerging markets and a risk
of only slow recovery among
the developed economies
Central banks: room to act
among the developed
economies and China, but
dilemmas among the
emerging economies
Real commodity prices, a
preliminary analysis of their
long-run trends
01
02
Gently rising growth trend in
spite of awkward conditions
Domestic demand has been
a positive surprise and the
prime mover of growth this
year
03
historical low of around 2.4%
Mexico
Banking Outlook
JANUARY 2016 | MEXICO UNIT
01
02
03
Loans and deposits are
recovering due to economic
factors. Maintaining the
dynamic would require
support from the structural
components of the economy
Analysis of the solvency of
local governments, companies
and households shows no
evidence of systemic risk
collections strategy to reduce
arrears and improve the
contact with cardholders
United States
Economic Outlook
4TH QUARTER 2015 | U.S. UNIT
01
02
03
Slower global growth and
increased downside risks due
to vulnerable emerging
economies and lower
expectations for developed
markets
U.S. growth expected to
stabilize around 2.5% in the
coming years in this "new
normal" environment
First federal funds rate hike
expected in December, with
only two or three hikes in
2016