Windwalker Real Estate

Transcription

2013 Nantucket Real Estate Review
YOUR KEY TO MARKET INSIGHT
What’s Inside
Taxable Value of all Nantucket Real Estate
2013 Nantucket Real Estate Review .................................. 3
$20.8B
$16.6B
Cumulative Sales Trends & Absorption Metrics............. 4
$17.1B
Single-Family Home Metrics ................................................. 5
Vacant Land Metrics................................................................ 6
Commercial Property Metrics.............................................. 7
20.8B
$
Speculative Market Update ............................................ 8–10
16.6B $17.1B
$
2012
2009*
2013
Summary Sales Data by Area...................................... 11–21
Front cover photo: Jeffrey Allen
Back cover photo: Kit Noble, NantucketStock.com
Total Number of all Real Estate Transactions
Total Number of Single Family Home Sales
399 325
2012
2005*
292
621 471
2013
Median Sale Values – SF Homes & Land
463
2012
2005*
2013
Total Transaction Dollar Volume
$
2000
$
1500
$
1000
$
500
0
1.19B
$
$
*
2009
2010
SF Home
2011
2012
2013
Land
Total Number of SF Building Permits Issued
212
57
108
2005*
2
2012
2012
742MM
$
2013
Average Sale Price as a % of Assessed Value
164
108 110
%%%
2005*
2005*
812MM
$
2012
2013
2013
*Denotes historical market high. Data excludes foreclosures.
Windwalker’s Nantucket Real Estate Review: Your Key to the 2013 Market
A passing glance at the year-end sales figures for the 2013 Nantucket real estate market indicates that 2013 slightly underperformed
the 2012 market. Yet, these summary numbers obscure the finer details that characterized the true nature of the market’s
performance. For Windwalker’s annual review of the Nantucket real estate market, we unlocked the data and analyzed the trends to
provide you with a better look at the big picture:
In Our Eyes, The 2013 Market Came Out On Top
Although the 463 real estate sales that took place in 2013 represent a two percent decline from 2012,
4Q12 was artificially buoyed by the threat of tax code changes, in effect moving forward some of the
sales that may have otherwise occurred in 1Q13. Yet, despite this handicap, 2013 mounted an
impressive, organic comeback through the first nine months of the year, rallying from a 20 percent
transaction deficit in 1Q13 to a 26 percent lead by 3Q13. Were it not for the ‘unfair’ advantage held by
4Q12, we believe 2013 would have held the lead by year’s end. Even in the face of this headwind, the
2013 market was transactionally superior to the 2006 and 2007 markets — an impressive, post-crash
comeback of its own.
Lower Price-Point Plays Suggest Higher Dollar Volumes May Be Ahead
The nine percent dollar volume decline in 2013 was not so much attributed to the slight reduction in
overall transaction volume but rather the higher concentration in lower price-point sales as compared to
2012. Sub-$1 million single-family home buyers, as well as residential and commercial land buyers,
drove dollar volume in the lower end of the market, igniting a shift into higher price points as inventory
disappeared. We anticipate 2014 will enjoy higher dollar volumes if only due to the evaporating
inventory in these lower price points.
Performance Metrics Indicate Improved Market Efficiencies
All segments of the local market, including single-family home sales, commercial sales, and vacant lot
sales, demonstrated improved performance by way of lower months on market, higher sales prices as a
percentage of both original and last list prices, and reduced inventory.
Speculative Projects Highlight Increased Confidence
Finished speculative home sales represented a higher proportion of 2013 sales than in 2012, signaling
that speculative investors’ confidence has been steadily improving. This confidence surged even higher
in 2013 as speculative developers nearly doubled their purchases of vacant lots from 2012 activity and
continued their buying spree of renovation projects.
Decline in Foreclosures Boosts Valuation Confidence
Though not specifically detailed in this report, the overall health of the market improved in 2013 as
foreclosures dropped significantly from eight percent in 2012 to just three percent. This decline aided in
boosting valuation confidence for the entire market and provided direct support for the sub-$1 million
segment as buyers finally saw relief from the valuation free-fall that had plagued this segment of the
market in previous years.
A sign that the 2013 market’s strength will carry into 2014, January sales posted the strongest transaction volume witnessed since
2007. Follow this year’s market developments on Windwalker’s website with daily posts, weekly blogs, and monthly market reports.
— Jennifer Shalley,
Director of Research for Windwalker Real Estate
3
Nantucket: Cumulative Sales Trends & Absorption Metrics
M A R K E T D ATA
Cumulative Real Estate Sales & Transaction Volume
Two steps forward, one step back?
$1,400,000
800
$1,200,000
700
600
500
$800,000
400
$600,000
300
$400,000
# OF TRANSACTIONS
SALES $ IN 000’S
$1,000,000
200
$200,000
100
0
$0
’95
’96
’97
Sales Volume ($)
’98
’99
’00
’01
’02
’03
’04
’05
’06
’07
’08
’09
’10
’11
’12
’13
Number of Transactions (#)
A brief glance at this chart might suggest that for each post-crash advance (2010 & 2012 markets), a slight retreat followed (2011 & 2013). In reality, Windwalker posits
that the 2013 market was even stronger than it appears as there were no external factors artificially boosting 4Q13 like we experienced in 4Q12 with the year-end tax
code changes. Each quarter was stronger than the one that preceded it, indicating a steady, genuine strengthening of the market. At 463 transactions totaling $742 million,
the 2013 market is the second post-crash market to match figures not seen since 2006 & 2007. It also represents double the transaction volume posted at the bottom of
the market and is nearly 75 percent higher than the dollar volume at that time. Though the graph may paint a picture of a slight Nantucket real estate setback, the 2013
market was anything but…
Absorption Rates & Sales Discounts
35
Another strong year of demand pushes inventory
down and reduces sales discounts
4
95%
30
90%
ABSORPTION RATE
25
85%
80%
20
75%
15
70%
65%
10
60%
5
55%
50%
0
’06
’07
’08
Absorption Projected Months on Market
’09
’10
’11
Sale Price / Last List Price
’12
’13
Sale Price / Original List Price
SALES PRICE AS A % OF ORIGINAL & LAST LIST
If there’s a solid metric that indicates a healthy, efficient
market, it’s quickening inventory absorption and
narrowing sales discounts. Strong buyer demand
(especially in the lower end of the market) in 2013
continued to drive down inventory such that, at a
consistent transaction pace, it would take approximately
10 months to clear all property inventory on island, an
improvement of two months over 2012 and even with
2006. Based on 2013 sales and year-end inventory,
properties located in Cisco, Naushop, Nashaquisset,
Mid-Island (residential) and West of Town enjoy among
the fastest absorption rates at less than six months. Sales
discounts also continued to improve as older inventory
cleared and vibrant demand encouraged fewer low bids.
100%
M A R K E T D ATA
In Focus: Single-Family Homes
Single-Family Home Sales Metrics
Moderate decline in YOY volume but inventory declines and
pricing metrics strengthen
Perhaps surprisingly, the number of single-family home sales dropped
12% from one year earlier and the median price declined 6% as the
majority of buyers put their money to work in sub-$1 million
properties. A portion of the transaction volume was redirected toward
vacant land sales (see pg 6) as both speculative buyers and end-users
sought to build rather than renovate, especially in a declininginventory market where options became limited. Despite the moderate
drop in sales volume, total inventory actually declined while pricing
metrics continued to improve.
SINGLE-FAMILY HOMES
2013
Transaction Volume
Dollar Volume ($000s)
Median Sale Price ($000s)
2012
% CHANGE
5-YR AVG.
% CHANGE
25%
292
326
–12%
233
$586,669
$629,756
–7%
$486,067
21%
$1,240
$1,311
–6%
$1,431
–13%
13
15
–15%
11
14%
83%
78%
5
79%
4
Sale Price / Most Recent List Price
91%
89%
2
90%
1
Inventory
287
316
–10%
394
–27%
Average Months on Market
Single-Family Home Sales by Price Point
Single-Family Home Sales per Quarter by Price Point
Lower end property sales dominate transaction volume
Rapidly depleting low-end inventory forces a price point shift
0.7
$2-$4.99MM 21%
>$9.99MM 3%
$1-$1.99MM 34%
<$1MM 39%
PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL SALES
$5-$9.99MM 3%
.6
.5
<$1MM
.4
$1–$1.99MM
.3
$2–$4.99MM
.2
$5–$9.99MM
.1
>$9.99MM
0
1Q13
2Q13
3Q13
4Q13
Single-family home sales were concentrated in the sub-$1 million category, especially in 1Q13 when they represented over 60% of all transactions. As foreclosures
declined significantly from prior years, prices stabilized in the lower end of the market and demand rebounded. This, combined with historically low investment yields
and fear of increasing mortgage rates, drove low-end volume. As inventory evaporated, demand in the $1-$2 million segment increased nearly proportionally,
suggesting would-be, Entry-Level buyers had to increase their budget to the next tier. Demand in the higher-end price points was consistent throughout 2013 with a
slight boost in transaction volume in the final half of the year, especially in the Ultra-High-End.
Home Absorption by Price Point
Absorption quickening not enjoyed by all price points
Demand for Entry–Level properties clearly outweighed supply, creating
an exceptionally low absorption rate of five months, down one month
from the same time in 2012. The Low-End witnessed slightly fewer
transactions but absorption improved one month from 2012 as well.
The higher end of the market experienced a far different scenario,
one characterized by a higher saturation of inventory that was not
supported by a corresponding increase in buyer interest. The
$5-$9.99 million price point lagged behind all others with a 45
month absorption rate, an increase of 26 months from 2012, due to a
nearly 50 percent decline in demand but a 25 percent increase in
inventory in 2013. Ultra-High-End properties fared slightly better as
transactions experienced a minimal year-over-year gain, but with
inventory doubling, absorption still increased seven months from 2012.
Trailing 12 mo sales
as of Dec 31, 2013
*Sales data is as of Dec. 31 and excludes timeshares and foreclosures.
Sources: LINK Nantucket Island Land Bank, Registry of Deeds
Inventory as of Dec.
31, 2013
Projected MOM as of
Dec. 31. 2013
Projected MOM as of
Dec. 31. 2012
5
In Focus: Vacant Land
M A R K E T D ATA
Vacant Lot Sales Metrics
Best transaction volume witnessed within the past 7 years
VACANT LAND
2013
2012
% CHANGE
5-YR AVG.
% CHANGE
90
79
14%
46
97%
$107,331
$116,317
8%
$62,550
72%
$675,000
$750,000
11%
$619,810
9%
14
15
5%
14
3%
84%
78%
6
75%
9
90%
89%
1
88%
2
67
74
– 9%
82
– 18%
Transaction Volume
Inventory
It was another successful year for vacant land sales with 2013 besting 2012 totals and nearly doubling the 5-year average for transaction volume. Interestingly, 49 percent
of these transactions were private sales (primarily commercial or speculative lot sales) so it should be noted that pricing metrics aren’t indicative of the entire sample size.
The median sale price declined but this metric tends to vary substantially year by year depending on the type, size and location of the properties. Notably, the average lot
size in 2013 was .58 acres compared to 1.35 acres in 2012 (excluding large conservation transactions) which was the main driver for the decline in median value.
Vacant Lot Sales by Price Point
Vacant Lot Sales by Intended Use
Sub-$1MM transactions represent the lion’s share but
decline from 2012
Speculative lot development nearly doubles in 2013
$5-$9.99MM 1%
>$9.99MM 1%
Conservation 2%
$2-$4.99MM 2%
Spec/Residential 20%
Residential 57%
$1-$1.99MM 34%
Commercial 15%
<$1MM 62%
Sub-$1 million lots represented the biggest slice of transaction volume, though
slightly less than the 65 percent witnessed in 2012. A significant portion of
these transactions were comprised of 5,000 sf lots in the Arrowhead Drive
(RC-2/CI zoning) subdivision (10 transactions) and Naushop (six
transactions). Vacant land sales in the $1–$2 million range increased from 27
percent to 33 percent year-over-year, spurred in part by demand from
speculative builders. The upper-end price points each declined by one to two
percentage points largely due to the fact that only a few private, large parcels of
vacant land remain on island.
Res / Comm 6%
Given recent market strength, it should come as no surprise that speculative
residential development has returned in force and increased substantially in 2013.
According to Windwalker estimates, speculative lot purchases represented 11 percent
of land transactions in 2012, a figure that jumped to 20 percent in 2013. Commercial
lot sales also increased considerably, rising six percentage points, thanks in part to
the vacant lots that traded near the airport within the Arrowhead Drive subdivision.
This analysis accounts for the $30 million mid-island portfolio as one transaction
when in reality it was comprised of over 60 mixed-use parcels, many of which were
commercial. Our estimate of commercial land sales is thus overly conservative.
Vacant Lot “Resales”
Limited but impressive data in 2013
Windwalker monitors property resales in order to gain insight into what may
be more broadly happening with property values. Vacant land is particularly
helpful as there is typically very little alteration to the property between sales,
unlike single-family homes where renovations may take place. Although the
data is very limited for 2013, the three vacant lot resales in the Brant Point
and Town areas suggest that land values have rebounded quite nicely over
recent years with gross annual returns (excluding taxes and fees) ranging
from 10 to 37 percent. It should be noted that while the value of two of these
properties nominally improved with the inclusion of HDC-approved plans,
the returns would still be impressive over and above this added value and
the marginal expenses incurred.
6
2013 LOT RESALES
ORIGINAL
SALE DATE
PRICE
2013 SALE
DATE
PRICE
GROSS
TOTAL
RETURN
GROSS
ANNUALIZED
RETURN
May 2010
$1,700,000
Aug 2013
$2,300,000
35%
10%
11A Crooked**
Jun 2012
Lane
$775,000
Sep 2013
$1,450,000
87%
65%
18 Cherry*
Street
$190,000
Aug 2013
$320,000
68%
37%
ADDRESS
62 Walsh
Street
Dec 2011
*Sale included HDC approved plans
**Sale included HDC approved plans and house removal
M A R K E T D ATA
In Focus: Commercial Property
Commercial Property Sales Metrics
Slight volume decline from 2012 but 150% of the 5-YR average
COMMERCIAL
2013
2012
% CHANGE
5-YR AVG.
18
20
–10%
12
55%
$14,367
$39,403
– 64%
$25,156
– 43%
$704
$1,970
– 64%
$1,668
– 58%
14
19
–16%
14
3%
74%
72%
3
84%
– 11%
90%
83%
8
91%
1%
11
19
– 42%
23
– 51%
Transaction Volume
Inventory
% CHANGE
Although commercial property sales typically represent less than five percent of the Nantucket real estate market, they may indicate how buyers view the island
economy when considering a Nantucket real estate investment. With 18 commercial transactions totaling $14 million, buyers have increasing confidence in this
asset class which has significantly improved from 2009 when only three transactions closed. Dollar volume declined from 2012, but this is due to the fact that the
majority of the pricier, downtown commercial inventory traded in 2012. The bulk of 2013 transactions were either smaller condo units or mid-island properties
where values are comparatively lower. Pricing metrics for commercial properties tend to be slightly less meaningful than the metrics for other types of property
given that many of the properties transfer privately where price history is unknown.
Commercial Sales by Price Point
Dearth of Town inventory results in lower
price point concentration
As with both single-family home sales and vacant lot sales, the
sub-$1 million price point dominated 2013 commercial
transactions. This is a dramatic shift from just one year ago when this
price point represented only 20 percent of all commercial
transactions. In 2012, there were eight core Town properties that
traded between $1.4 million and $4.5 million. In 2013, there was
only one notable downtown sale, the transfer of 21 Broad Street for
$3.05 million. This data excludes the aforementioned $30 million
portfolio sale which would lift commercial activity even higher.
$2-$4.99MM 5%
>$5MM+ 0%
$1-$1.99MM 17%
<$1MM 78%
Commercial Sales by Location
Big year for commercial properties in Mid-Island
Mid-Island commercial property sales represented 56 percent of all
commercial transactions. Once again, this is a conservative figure due
to the treatment of the $30 million portfolio transfer. Were this
portfolio to be broken out, the Mid-Island percentage would be
higher as there were 60 properties included in this bulk purchase,
many of which were residential/commercial or commercial
properties. Given the substantial commercial investment that is
occurring outside of the core district, it would not be surprising to
see this concentration of sales continue in the Mid-Island area.
Miacomet 11%
Town 33%
Mid Island 56%
7
• WEST OF TOWN
Pilgrim Court
Sold Homes Price Range
Sold Lots Price Range
• WEST OF TOWN
$2.74 MM
N/A
Total # of Developable Lots
5
Total # of Sold Product*
1
Total Sold in 2013
1
Old Westmoor Farm
Sold Homes Price Range $2.5MM – $4.06MM
$695k – $1.45MM
14
11
Total Sold in 2013
• CISCO
Nanahumacke
$1.9MM – $2MM
$700k – $1.2 MM
13
10
Total Sold in 2013
• MIACOMET
1
Finback
• MIACOMET
8
1
N/A
15
Ellen’s Way
3
Total Sold in 2013
3
$2.88MM**
$1.5MM**
19
0
Total Sold in 2013
0
• TOWN
Gingy Lane
Sold Homes Price Range $2MM – $2.4MM
$500k – $700k
14
4
Total Sold in 2013
2
• ’SCONSET
Blackfish
$988k – $1.2MM
• ’SCONSET
7
Total Sold in 2013
3
Hydrangea
• WEST OF TOWN
Hedgebury
13
$1.53MM
$600k – 745k
14
4
Total Sold in 2013
1
$1.2MM – $1.25MM
12
6
Total Sold in 2013
2
*Lots or spec homes
**List prices
9
2013
Speculative Sales Activity
Speculative Home Sales By Year
2012 V 2013
Small but growing segment of the residential market
100%
Approximately 6.5 percent of all single-family home transactions in 2012
were speculative sales – defined here as the finished product by a
speculative investor/builder, excluding the initial purchase of land and/or
renovation projects by those same investors/builders. This figure grew to
nine percent in 2013, which is not surprising given the overall
strengthening of the market and the limited inventory of turnkey vacation
properties. As the table below shows, aside from a speculative Brant Point
property that came on the market in 2007, spec homes enjoyed a rapid
absorption rate compared to the average marketing time for the overall
market.
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
2012
2013
Non-speculative Residential Sales
Speculative Residential Sales by Area
Speculative Residential Sales
Surfside 8%
Cliff and Town areas host majority of speculative sales activity
Though property sales on the Cliff represented only seven percent of all
single-family home transactions in 2013, this highly sought after area
represented 34 percent of total speculative sales activity as estimated by
Windwalker. Nearly one out of every two single-family home sales on the
Cliff represented the transfer of a spec home to an end-user. The Town area
represented 22 percent of all single-family homes sales during the year and
27 percent of all speculative activity. At 11 percent, the Miacomet area saw
a slightly higher concentration than the remaining areas thanks to the
success of the Finback subdivision. In reviewing vacant lot sales and
renovation projects that sold during 2013, Windwalker anticipates that
2014 speculative sales data will have a similar distribution by area.
’Sconset 4%
Pocomo 4%
Town 27%
Miacomet 11%
Brant Point 4%
Cliff 34%
Speculative Home Sales Metrics
2013 FINISHED SPEC HOME SALES BY AREA
A snapshot of strong data
Disregarding the Brant Point sale of 1 Dolphin Court, the data for
residential spec sales is by and large much stronger than the averages for
the market as a whole. Marketing time was significantly lower across the
board, indicating just how strong demand is for recently renovated homes.
Sales prices as a percentage of the original and last asking prices were also
above the market averages, suggesting not only that these homes more
accurately reflected current market pricing compared to the broader
market, but also that readily available buyers were willing to pay top dollar
for a product that was in low supply. The price per square foot of finished
living space predictably varied by area. And while this data should be
analyzed more granularly given the diversity in the finished products and
characteristics specific to each area, one can’t deny the impressive $900+
average price per square foot of finished living space that these speculative
projects boast overall.
West of Town 4%
Dionis 4%
Brant Point*
$2,200
77
51%
85%
$994
Cliff
$3,486
3
89%
92%
$826
Dionis**
$3,000
<1
—
—
—
Miacomet
$1,517
6
96%
96%
$742
Pocomo***
$11,200
5
86%
86%
$1,333
’Sconset***
$3,485
7
91%
91%
$983
Surfside
$2,668
5
87%
93%
$793
Town
$2,037
7
90%
94%
$649
West of Town*
$4,265
1
95%
95%
$1,082
*Indicative of one spec sale that was originally listed in 2007
**Property sold prior to completion
***One property sale in 2013
10
Summary Sales Data by Area
| Year-End Report 2013
Town
RESIDENTIAL & LAND
# of Transactions
86
101
– 15%
19%
21%
–2
$112,391
$150,213
– 25%
15%
19%
–4
Average (in thousands)
$1,307
$1,487
– 12%
Median (in thousands)
$1,083
$1,225
– 12%
Sale % Original Price
82%
77%
+5
Sale % Last Ask Price
91%
89%
+2
Sale % Assessed Value
104%
109%
–5
14
17
– 18%
% Total All Transactions
Dollar Volume (in thousands)
% Total All Dollar Volume
2013 HIGHEST SALE
38 Orange Street
$4,650,000
I 2013 LOWEST SALE
Avg. Months on Market
3 Cherry Street
$250,000
As the most densely developed area on island, Town saw
the highest number of transactions (89) and dollar
volume ($112 million) of any area in 2013.
One notable sale in the area was 14 Mayhew Lane, which was originally purchased by a
speculative builder in March of 2012 for $925,000. After an extensive renovation, which
included the addition of a second floor and a pool, the property sold for $3.85 million, or
97% of the asking price, after less than 2 weeks on the market.
Town
COMMERCIAL
# of Transactions
7
10
– 30%
2%
2%
0
$7,550
$28,095
– 73%
1%
4%
–3
$1,108
$2,810
– 61%
$825
$2,650
– 69%
I 2013 LOWEST SALE
85%
78%
+7
58A Orange Street
87%
89%
–2
$310,000
115%
114%
+1
11
19
– 42%
2013 HIGHEST SALE
21 Broad Street
$3,050,000
After a strong 2012, where 10 commercial properties in Town transferred
for an average $2.8 million, the average price of downtown commercial
property sales dropped 61% in 2013 as only 2 of the 7 transactions
closed for over $1 million.
21 Broad Street, formerly known as The Nesbitt Inn, was purchased in
July of 2012 in a private transaction for $2.8 million. It resold privately
for $3,050,000 in June 2013 with ZBA approval to expand the total
number of guest rooms.
11
Sold Properties by Area
Mid Island
RESIDENTIAL & LAND
# of Transactions
82
59
39%
18%
13%
+5
$68,359
$28,900
137%
9%
4%
+5
$466
$490
–5%
$420
$460
–9%
90%
83%
+7
95%
92%
+3
98%
101%
–3
10
13
– 23%
2013 HIGHEST SALE
Glowacki Portfolio
(Mixed Use)
$30,596,600
I 2013 LOWEST SALE
10 Backus Lane
(Land)
$155,000
Mid-Island sales represented the lowest average sale price
($466,000) and lowest median sale price ($420,000) of any
area for the second straight year.
Mid-Island also boasted the most land sales (23) of any area in 2013, with 10 of those
sales coming from the subdivision and sale of the Kenneth Coffin, Inc. excavation pit at
the end of Old South Road.
Mid Island
COMMERCIAL
# of Transactions
9
8
13%
2%
2%
0
$5,787
$7,423
– 22%
1%
1%
0
$643
$928
– 31%
$550
$1,013
– 46%
I 2013 LOWEST SALE
69%
67%
+2
12C Amelia Drive
91%
87%
+4
$162,500
86%
107%
+21
17
24
– 29%
2013 HIGHEST SALE
24 Amelia Drive
$1,430,500
Mid-Island commercial sales represented the lowest ratio
of sale price to assessed value (86%) of any area in 2013
indicating that the Town’s assessed values are well above
market-dictated prices.
12
Signs of clearing older inventory were evident with the sale of 1 Chin’s Way. Formerly
known as The Hen House, the property was listed for approximately four years before
closing for $550,223, a steep 68% and 21% discount from the original and last asking
prices, respectively.
Brant Point
ALL SALES
# of Transactions
14
19
– 26%
3%
4%
–1
$41,526
$43,895
– 5%
6%
5%
+1
$2,966
$2,310
28%
$1,861
$1,575
18%
2013 HIGHEST SALE
37 Hulbert Avenue
$16,500,000
I 2013 LOWEST SALE
80%
71%
+9
6 Dolphin Court
92%
86%
+6
$1,050,000
117%
96%
+21
16
16
– 1%
Average and median sales prices in Brant Point increased from 2012
to 2013, due in large part to the higher concentration of transactions
that closed for above $2 million in the area in 2013 (43%) as
compared to 2012 (32%).
The last undeveloped lot on Dolphin Court sold for $1,050,000 in
November, while a previously built spec project at 1 Dolphin Court
finally sold after more than 5 years on market for 55% of its original
asking price.
Cliff
ALL SALES
# of Transactions
34
42
– 19%
7%
9%
–2
$95,144
$159,249
– 40%
13%
20%
–7
$2,798
$3,792
-26%
$1,963
$2,425
-19%
88%
87%
+1
8C Cliff Road
93%
93%
0
(Condo)
129%
138%
–9
$620,000
9
11
– 19%
2013 HIGHEST SALE
11 Lincoln Circle
$9,550,000
I 2013 LOWEST SALE
The Cliff area boasted a very impressive year across the board, thanks in part to 9 speculative property
sales that aided in boosting dollar volume, transaction volume and sales statistics. Most notably, these
properties sold for an average of 90% of the original asking price, versus 84% for the overall market,
and were only marketed for an average of 4 months, versus 12 months for the overall market.
There were 11 vacant lot sales in the
area, a sign that the Cliff could continue
to be a hot-spot for finished spec
projects in 2014.
13
West of Town
ALL SALES
# of Transactions
15
26
– 42%
3%
6%
–3
$15,255
$29,412
– 48%
2%
4%
–2
$1,017
$1,131
– 10%
$755
$925
– 18%
91%
84%
+7
93%
90%
+3
131%
106%
+25
7
10
– 27%
2013 HIGHEST SALE
88 Madaket Road
$4,265,000
I 2013 LOWEST SALE
4 Cato Lane
(Land)
$305,000
The West of Town area experienced increases in all 3 pricing
ratios year-over-year, and with 15 transactions closing in 2013
versus only 7 properties listed for sale at year-end, it also had an
absorption rate of less than 6 months.
3 Robert’s Lane was under agreement almost immediately upon hitting the market,
and closed for $1,000 over the $599,000 asking price, illustrating the continued
exuberance in the low end of the market for well-priced starter homes.
Dionis
ALL SALES
# of Transactions
7
6
17%
2%
1%
+1
$22,291
$30,265
– 26%
3%
4%
–1
$3,184
$5,044
– 37%
$2,725
$2,550
7%
2013 HIGHEST SALE
79 Eel Point Road
$9,491,300
I 2013 LOWEST SALE
78%
73%
+5
16 Swift Rock Road
84%
87%
–3
$830,000
111%
100%
+ 11
18
19
– 7%
As of year-end, the 7 properties listed for sale in Dionis exactly offset
the 7 properties that closed in the area in 2013, resulting in a 12
month absorption rate that matches the overall average across all
property types in 2013.
14
79 Eel Point Road, an estate property with sweeping North Shore views, pool and
tennis court, had an accepted offer within 10 months, but traded at 64% of the
original asking price after two 10% price reductions.
Madaket / Tuckernuck*
ALL SALES
# of Transactions
23
26
– 12%
5%
6%
–1
$20,819
$27,555
– 24%
3%
3%
0
$905
$1,060
– 15%
$693
$924
– 25%
83%
76%
+7
92%
89%
+3
108%
123%
– 15
14
13
10%
2013 HIGHEST SALE
1 Esther’s Island Road
$2,600,000
I 2013 LOWEST SALE
18 Arkansas Avenue
$298,000
* Includes sole Tuckernuck transaction which traded for $825,000 in 2012
The Madaket area experienced a bit of a down year as transaction and dollar volume both fell
12% and 24% respectively. Furthermore, average sales prices fell 15% while median sales
prices fell 25%. These drops are most likely attributed to the fact that 35% of 2013 transactions
in Madaket closed for under $500,000 whereas that price-point represented only 8% of
Madaket transactions one year earlier.
The sale of 1 Esther’s Island Road for $2.6 million
marked the transfer of one of Nantucket’s most
unique properties: an off-the-grid, ocean-front
retreat on 13+ acres that is inaccessible via
vehicular access from time to time.
Cisco
ALL SALES
# of Transactions
7
10
– 30%
2%
2%
0
$15,120
$17,658
– 14%
2%
2%
0
$2,160
$1,766
22%
$1,350
$1,433
– 6%
2013 HIGHEST SALE
6 Walbang Avenue
$4,250,000
I 2013 LOWEST SALE
86%
82%
+4
24 Somerset Lane
92%
92%
0
123%
130%
–7
6
11
– 45%
$750,000
Low inventory in this increasingly popular beach neighborhood led to
a year-over-year increase in the average sale price from $1.766
million to $2.16 million and a sharp drop in average marketing time
from 11 months to 6 months.
Given the high number of 2013 sales in Cisco, combined with low yearend inventory (2), the projected months on market as of December 31,
2013 was only 3.4 months.
15
Hummock Pond
ALL SALES
# of Transactions
9
8
13%
2%
2%
0
$11,443
$10,262
12%
2%
1%
+1
$1,271
$1,283
– 1%
$980
$1,404
– 30%
I 2013 LOWEST SALE
87%
88%
–1
11 Aurora Way
(Land)
$700,000
91%
92%
–1
131%
105%
+26
12
13
– 10%
2013 HIGHEST SALE
1 Osprey Way
$3,400,000
Sales statistics in the Hummock Pond area remained relatively
flat year-over-year. The median sales price, however, dropped
30% from $1.4 million to $980,000 as sub-$1 million
transactions represented a larger portion of total transaction
volume (56% in 2013 versus 38% in 2012).
The only other metric that experienced a sizable year-over-year change was the sale price as a
percentage of assessed value ratio, which increased 26 percentage points from 105% in 2012 to 131%
in 2013. This increase was in large part due to 2 transactions: the 2013 land sale at 11 Aurora Way,
which included HDC-approved plans and sold for $700,000 (209% of the assessed value), and the
2012 REO sale of 30 Hummock Pond Road for $425,000 (49% of the assessed value).
Miacomet
ALL SALES
# of Transactions
21
15
40%
5%
3%
+2
$16,978
$10,561
61%
2%
1%
+1
$808
$704
15%
$725
$549
32%
84%
88%
–4
3B Windy Way
92%
92%
0
(Commercial)
114%
88%
+26
$285,000
12
11
9%
2013 HIGHEST SALE
6 Pond View Drive
$1,995,000
I 2013 LOWEST SALE
Two recent residential developments are located in this area — the 15-lot
Finback Road subdivision that saw 3 properties sell in 2013, and the 19lot Ellen’s Way subdivision that is in the early stages of development and
currently has 1 property listed for sale.
16
The highest-priced sale in Miacomet in 2013, 6 Pond View Drive,
transferred for 100% of the original asking price and was under
contract in less than 2 months. It was the only sale above $1 million that
was not one of the newly constructed Finback Road properties.
Surfside
ALL SALES
# of Transactions
30
29
3%
6%
6%
0
$32,824
$26,785
23%
4%
3%
+1
$1,094
$924
18%
2013 HIGHEST SALE
58 Nobadeer Avenue
$2,741,667
$935
$765
22%
I 2013 LOWEST SALE
89%
70%
+19
50 Okorwaw Avenue
93%
85%
+8
(Land)
108%
110%
–2
$353,100
8
20
– 59%
One of the more consistently sought-after beach
neighborhoods on the island, Surfside saw
improvements across nearly all sales and pricing
statistics except for a negligible 2 percentage point drop
in sales price as a percentage of assessed value.
The most notable change from 2012 to 2013 was the drop in average months on market from 20
months to 8 months. This was the result of older inventory clearing and new inventory pricing that
was more aligned with the market, as is apparent in the 19 percentage point increase in the sale
price to original asking price ratio (from 70% in 2012 to 89% in 2013), and the 8 percentage point
increase in the sale price to last asking price ratio (from 85% in 2012 to 93% in 2013).
Tom Nevers / Madequecham
ALL SALES
# of Transactions
21
20
5%
5%
4%
+1
$30,710
$21,831
41%
4%
3%
+1
$1,462
$1,092
34%
$1,100
$1,000
10%
79%
77%
+2
91%
91%
0
87%
98%
– 11
19
14
33%
2013 HIGHEST SALE
100 Tom Nevers Road
$5,000,000
I 2013 LOWEST SALE
2 Gloucester Street
(Land)
$400,000
The Tom Nevers area witnessed a sizable 41% increase in transaction dollar volume from 2012
to 2013 as 15 of the 21 transactions (71%) in 2013 closed for above $1 million, whereas only
10 of 20 transactions (50%) closed for above $1 million in 2012.
Two of these sales closed for more than $4
million, well above the highest valued sale in
2012 of $2.28 million.
17
’Sconset
ALL SALES
# of Transactions
40
35
14%
9%
7%
+2
$86,683
$72,106
20%
12%
9%
+3
$2,167
$2,060
5%
$1,310
$1,435
– 9%
86%
76%
+ 10
86 Baxter Road
91%
88%
+3
$700,000
131%
112%
+ 19
10
14
– 29%
2013 HIGHEST SALE
15 Baxter Road
$11,000,000
I 2013 LOWEST SALE
With 40 transactions, ‘Sconset enjoyed the third highest
sales total by area on the island, trailing only Town (86)
and Mid-Island (82).
‘Sconset saw an increase in all of its sales and pricing statistics except for the median
sales price which dropped 9%. This drop from $1.435 million to $1.31 million is
attributed to the concentration of transactions below $1.5 million, which increased from
51% in 2012 to 58% in 2013.
Quidnet / Squam*
ALL SALES
# of Transactions
5
6
– 17%
1%
1%
0
$39,066
$12,825
205%
5%
2%
+3
$7,813
$2,138
265%
$4,300
$2,125
102%
71%
88%
– 17
83%
94%
– 11
132%
121%
+ 11
12
19
– 37%
2013 HIGHEST SALE
51, 53 & 55 Squam Road
$20,000,000
I 2013 LOWEST SALE
34 Quidnet Road
$1,200,000
The Quidnet / Squam area boasted the highest average sale price ($7.813 million)
of any area on Nantucket, thanks to two Ultra-High-End sales, but also the lowest
ratio of sale price to last asking price (83%). The decrease in this ratio is attributed
to the sale of 5 Beacon Lane which closed for 74% of the last asking price.
18
Two Ultra-High-End sales, with an average sale price of $16.2 million,
led to the largest year-over-year gains in dollar volume (205%) and
average sales price (265%) of any area, and made Quidnet/Squam the
only area that saw 2 Ultra-High-End transactions close in 2013.
Wauwinet /Pocomo
ALL SALES
# of Transactions
6
8
– 25%
1%
2%
–1
$19,930
$32,763
– 39%
3%
4%
–1
$3,322
$4,095
– 19%
$1,646
$2,589
– 36%
72%
66%
+6
45 Wauwinet Road
90%
84%
+6
$885,000
89%
96%
–7
19
19
– 1%
2013 HIGHEST SALE
68 Pocomo Road
$11,200,000
I 2013 LOWEST SALE
With only 6 transactions closing in the area in 2013 and
17 properties currently listed for sale, the Wauwinet /
Pocomo area carried the longest absorption rate with 34
projected months on market at year end.
The property at 68 Pocomo Road originally sold for $2.75 million in March of 2012.
After an extensive renovation that resulted in the creation of an 8,400 sf family
compound, the property resold for $11.2 million in October of 2013, less than 5
months after the original list date.
Polpis / Quaise / Shawkemo
ALL SALES
# of Transactions
7
12
– 42%
2%
3%
–1
$28,153
$63,833
– 56%
4%
8%
–4
$4,022
$5,319
– 24%
$2,800
$3,845
– 27%
2013 HIGHEST SALE
9 Fulling Mill Road
$12,900,000
I 2013 LOWEST SALE
66%
70%
–4
8 Bassett Road
92%
86%
+6
$650,000
100%
94%
+6
19
18
6%
The Polpis area saw the lowest ratio of sale price to original asking price
(66%) of all areas on island, due in large part to the transfer of 3
properties that were marketed for an average of 30 months and sold on
average at 44% of their respective original asking prices.
After a strong performance in 2012, the Shawkemo area within Polpis saw
fewer transactions (2 versus 4), lower dollar volume ($5.9 million versus
$25.8 million), lower average sale price ($2.96 million versus $6.46 million)
and lower median sale price ($2.96 million versus $6.35 million) in 2013.
19
Shimmo
ALL SALES
# of Transactions
3
5
– 40%
1%
1%
0
$20,450
$11,190
83%
3%
1%
+2
$6,817
$2,238
205%
$6,300
$1,660
280%
2013 HIGHEST SALE
21 & 23 Shimmo Pond Road
$12,600,000
I 2013 LOWEST SALE
101%
75%
+ 26
7 South Valley Road
101%
92%
+9
$1,550,000
126%
90%
+ 36
1
18
– 97%
While the Shimmo area witnessed the fewest closings of all areas on
Nantucket, those sales contributed to the highest median sale price
($6.3 million), the highest average ratio of sale price to original asking
price (101%), the highest average sale price to last asking price
(101%), and the shortest months on market (1) for 2013.
The impressive activity in Shimmo in 2013 also translated to the largest yearover-year increase in median price ($1.66 million in 2012 to $6.3 million in
2013) and largest decrease in months on market (from 18 MOM in 2012 to
1 MOM in 2013).
Monomoy
ALL SALES
# of Transactions
9
5
80%
2%
1%
+1
$33,406
$12,344
171%
5%
2%
+3
$3,712
$2,469
50%
$1,800
$2,240
– 20%
2013 HIGHEST SALE
48 Monomoy Road
$18,000,000
I 2013 LOWEST SALE
78%
62%
+ 16
16F Milestone Road
88%
89%
–1
(Condo)
139%
93%
+ 46
20
18
13%
$420,000
The 9 transactions that occurred in the Monomoy area in 2013 carried the highest
percentage of sale price to assessed value (139%), largely due to the 48 Monomoy
Road sale that closed for 220% of assessed value. Sales in this area also represented
the longest average marketing time of 20 months as 2 of the 9 properties were listed
for sale for a combined 110 months.
20
Dollar volume in this area nearly tripled due to a combination of
increases in transaction volume (9 versus 5), average sales price
($3.7 million versus $2.5 million) and the above-referenced sale
of 48 Monomoy Road that was almost triple the price of the
highest transaction to close in Monomoy in 2012.
Naushop
ALL SALES
# of Transactions
24
16
50%
5%
3%
+2
$14,570
$10,872
34%
2%
1%
+1
$607
$680
– 11%
2013 HIGHEST SALE
82 Goldfinch Drive
$1,000,000
$741
$675
10%
I 2013 LOWEST SALE
80%
78%
+2
97B Goldfinch Drive
91%
88%
+3
(Condo)
102%
96%
+6
$50,000
15
17
– 11%
With 24 transactions in 2013 and only 5 properties listed for
sale at year-end, Naushop boasted the lowest absorption rate of
any neighborhood with properties projected to last only 2.5
months on market.
Naushop saw an increase in all of its sales and performance statistics except for the
11% year-over-year drop in its average sale price in 2013 as compared to 2012
($607,000 versus $680,000) due in part to the fact that 6 of the 24 transactions
were vacant land sales.
Nashaquisset
ALL SALES
# of Transactions
4
5
– 20%
1%
1%
0
$2,890
$4,019
– 28%
1%
1%
0
$722
$804
– 10%
$777
$750
4%
I 2013 LOWEST SALE
97%
94%
+3
8 Nickanoose Way
97%
95%
+2
(Co-Op)
104%
113%
–9
2
4
– 58%
2013 HIGHEST SALE
19 Autopscot Circle
(Co-Op)
$885,000
$450,000
For the third straight year, sales in Nashaquisset represented the lowest total dollar
volume ($2.9 million) of any area in Nantucket largely due to the fact that there has
been very limited inventory for sale.
As of year-end 2013, there was only 1 property listed
for sale in Nashaquisset, the lowest inventory of any
area on island.
21
Windwalker REsearch
EXAMPL ES OF OUR
WINDWALKER’S BLOG
@WindwalkerRealEstate on
WindwalkerRealEstate
@WindwalkerRE
is Week’s Nantucket
Real Estate Report...
January real estate sales are off
to a fiery start on #Nantucket.
Just 2 wks in, ACK has
surpassed full month totals
http://bit.ly/1i6gOjU
With the Dow Jones posting a wildly impressive 26.5% return over
2013, at the beginning of the new year Wall Street and Main Street
alike were left facing a big question: Could the blue chips keep up
this torrid pace and would the Nantucket real estate market
continue to reap the benefit of Wall Street’s success?
Nantucket Real Estate Market
Report 1/24/14-1/31/14: The
following is the Nantucket Real
Estate Week in Review...
http://bit.ly/1lwGzd0
e short answer is, so far so good! Just past the midpoint of the
first month of the year, including the 14 transactions that occurred
last week, Nantucket has already witnessed 19 real estate
transactions totaling $29.432 million. Compare that with fullmonth totals for January over the last five years, and the early year
performance looks pretty impressive.
$35,000
Property auction today @ 12pm
http://bit.ly/1huxi2i Property last
listed for $2mm
http://bit.ly/1b5W8k6 .
December Market Report on
#Nantucketrealestate indicates
2013 was stronger than the
scoreboard suggests
http://bit.ly/1m5orHa
20
18
$30,000
16
14
12
$20,000
10
$15,000
8
# OF TRANSACTIONS
IN $000’S
$25,000
Check out how
#Nantucketrealestate is starting
off the new year with
@WindwalkerRE Market REport
Jan 3-10 http://bit.ly/1eAljxE
6
$10,000
4
$5000
2
0
$0
AS OF
JAN. 31,
2009
AS OF
JAN. 31,
2010
AS OF
JAN. 31,
2011
Sales Volume ($)
AS OF
JAN. 31,
2012
AS OF
JAN. 31,
2013
Prelim tally for the ’13 Nantucket
Real Estate performance is in:
http://bit.ly/1eH5xBs
#Nantucketrealestate
AS OF
JAN. 17,
2014
# of Transactions
www.windwalkerrealestate.com
12 Oak Street
Nantucket, MA 02554
508 228 9117
Sales
Research
Rentals
Blog
ONL INE RE SEARCH
RELIABLE MARKET INFORMATION
Nantucket Real Estate
Week in Review
3 Six properties closed for a total of $5.195 million:
• Average Sale Price: $865,750
• Highest: 52 Madequecham Valley Road closed for
$1.675 million
Windwalker
Annual Report
Annual “state of the
market” and overview of
all things real estate!
• Lowest: 16 Marble Way (Land) closed for $375,000
3 One oﬀer was accepted:
• 27 Hinckley Lane most recently listed for
$7.9 million
3 Two purchase & sale agreements were executed:
• Highest: 3 & 5 Joy Street most recently listed
for $2.6 million
• Lowest: 4 Moors End Lane (Land) most recently
listed for $775,000
Windwalker
Monthly Report
In-depth commentary and
detailed analysis of the
market’s trends and drivers
3 Four price changes occurred this week:
• Largest Price Increase: 30 Pocomo Road increased
6.34% to $3.35 million from original listing price
• Largest Price Reduction: 101 Low Beach Road
reduced to $4.25 million from last asking price of
$4.995 million and 46.84% from original listing
price of $7.995 million
3 Six properties came to market …
Windwalker
Website
Detailed sales graphs and
tables with most recent
year-to-date information.
All of our reports, old
and new, online
(property images and information viewable on blog)
THE WINDWALKER REPORT IS PRODUCED BY:
We want to hear from you!
Do you have questions, comments, or insights
to share? Give us a call, visit our website, or
tweet us @WindwalkerRealEstate
Jennifer Shalley
Peter Kaizer
Research Director /
Broker Associate
@ACK_REsearch
Research Analyst /
Sales Associate
23
12 Oak Street
Nantucket, MA 02554
508 228 9117
www.windwalkerrealestate.com
Sales
Research
Rentals
Blog

Windwalker Real Estate

Transcription

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