World insurance in 2014: back to life

Transcription

No 4 /2015
World insurance in 2014:
back to life
1
Executive summary
3The global economy and
financial markets in 2014
7Life sector rebounds,
non-life recovery continues
14Stagnating non-life
premiums in “old” Europe
18Advanced market
premiums grow faster
than the economy
24Emerging regions continue
to gain market share
31 Methodology and data
33 Statistical appendix
Executive summary
The global economy strengthened
slightly in 2014, with the growth rate
near the previous 10-year average.
Figure 1
Global real premium growth rates, 2014
The economic environment for insurers improved only marginally in 2014, as global
real gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 2.7%, near the 10-year annual growth
rate average of 2.8%. The improvement was driven by the advanced markets, led
by the UK. Growth in the US accelerated slightly to 2.4% and was also stronger
(but uneven) in Western Europe. In Advanced Asia, growth slowed due to ongoing
sluggishness in Japan. In contrast, the emerging markets grew at a slower aggregate
rate of 4.1% in 2014, down from 4.6% in 2013. Many countries struggled with
domestic difficulties, structural deficiencies and uncertainty about the impact of
the US Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting back its quantitative easing program.
Advanced countries’ equity markets outperformed their emerging market peers
and government bond yields remained very low.
Advanced markets
Emerging markets
World
Life
Non-life
Total
3.8%
6.9%
4.3%
1.8%
8.0%
2.9%
2.9%
3.7%
7.4%
No data
< –10.0%
–10.0% to –5.0%
–5.0% to –2.5%
–2.5% to 0.0%
0.0% to 2.5%
2.5% to 5.0%
5.0% to 10.0%
> 10.0%
Source: Swiss Re Economic Research & Consulting.
Global life insurance premiums returned to
positive growth in 2014, with considerable
variations across regions.
The global insurance industry gained momentum in 2014. There was a return to
positive growth in the life sector,1 with premiums up 4.3% to USD 2 655 billion after
a 1.8% decline in 2013. Very strong growth in Oceania and solid results in Western
Europe and Japan more than offset yet another year of contraction in North America,
with falling sales of term and universal life products in the US. In emerging markets,
life premium growth improved to 6.9% from 3.6% in 2013, driven mainly by China.
In other emerging regions, premium growth generally slowed or even continued
to decline, as in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). Since the financial crisis, life
premiums in the advanced markets have stagnated. In the emerging markets, average
annual premium growth has been slower than in the pre-crisis years.2
1 Unless otherwise stated, all premium growth rates indicate changes in real terms (ie, adjusted for local
consumer price inflation).
2 Pre-crisis: 2003–2007; post-crisis: 2009–2014.
Swiss Re sigma No 4/2015 1
Executive summary
Non-life premium growth strengthened,
mainly due to improvements in the
advanced markets.
Global non-life premiums increased by 2.9% in 2014 to USD 2 124 billion, slightly
higher than the 2.7% growth rate of 2013. The improvement was driven by strength
in the advanced markets. North America (+2.6%) saw significant improvement and
Western Europe returned to slow growth (0.6%) after years of decline and stagnation
(see chapter “Stagnating non-life premiums in “old” Europe”). However, in Advanced
Asia premiums grew by 1.7%, which was less than in 2013. Emerging markets
continued their robust premium growth trend (+8.0%). Growth was strong in all
regions except CEE and Africa. Solid gains in China and a notable improvement in
India were the key drivers. Non-life premium growth in Latin America slowed but
was still solid (+4.7%). In both the advanced and emerging markets, the post-crisis
annual average premium growth rate has fallen short of the pre-crisis pace.
Profitability in life improved slightly in
2014, but remained weak in non-life.
Both sectors are well capitalised.
Profitability in the life insurance sector improved slightly in 2014, driven by stronger
stock markets, higher premium growth and cost containment efforts. Underwriting
results in non-life were positive but slightly weaker than in the previous year, as
claims experience deteriorated slightly and contributions from prior-year reserve
releases lessened. Both sectors continued to suffer from low interest rates and
overall profitability was below pre-crisis levels. The industry remains well capitalised.
In the environment of ultra-low interest rates, unrealized gains on bonds are
providing support.
Life premium growth will improve
globally. Non-life premium growth will
remain robust in the emerging but remain
sluggish in the advanced markets.
Life premium growth is expected to remain fairly solid in the advanced economies in
2015, and increase in the emerging markets, particularly in CEE and China. The US
life market is likely to improve alongside the strengthening economy and jobs market.
Growth in Western Europe is expected to slow from the strong result in 2014. The
outlook for the non-life industry in advanced markets is more moderate. Premium
rates remain low and though economic growth is improving, it is still sluggish.
Emerging market premium growth, on the other hand, is expected to remain robust.
The special chapter of the sigma updates
the S-curve in the context of stagnating
non-life premiums in advanced Europe.
A special chapter in this sigma analyses the drivers behind the stagnation of non-life
premiums in advanced European countries since the financial crisis. It also provides
an update of the S-curve relationship between GDP per capita and insurance
penetration. In 2014, real non-life premiums in advanced Europe were just 0.5%
higher than their level in 2007, the weakest gain over the seven-year period of any
region. However, as economic growth and wealth are key determinants of insurance
penetration, slow insurance growth was to be expected given that real GDP per
capita in advanced Europe has fallen by 2.2% during that same period.
If economic recovery is sustained,
non-life premium growth in Europe will
be stronger than it has been since the
financial crisis.
Growth trends diverged for the various business lines, and also for countries. Private
medical insurance premiums (part of non-life in sigma data) maintained close to 2%
growth each year between 2007 and 2014, while property lines were stable. In
contrast, casualty lines, particularly motor, declined by close to 10% over the same
period, and marine and credit lines by 15% or more. This pattern was even more
extreme in the southern peripheral countries (Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain) with
a near collapse in motor premiums. Yet, the past seven years should not be taken as
a benchmark for premium growth in the European non-life markets. The economic
environment, though still weak, is likely to continue to improve, and when
unemployment falls, non-life premiums will recover, including in motor.
The data in this study are the latest
available at the time of going to press.
This sigma study contains the latest market data available at the time of going to
press. The final figures for 2014 are not available for most insurance markets. As
such, the sigma also contains Swiss Re Economic Research & Consulting estimates
and provisional data released by supervisory authorities and insurance associations.
The sigma explorer.
2 Swiss Re sigma No 4/2015
Go to www.sigma-explorer.com to visualise world insurance premium data dating
back to 1980.
The global economy and financial markets in 2014
Global economy improving slightly despite geopolitical tensions
The economic environment for insurers
improved slightly in 2014, driven by
advanced markets.
The economic environment for insurers improved only marginally in 2014, as global
real GDP3 grew by 2.7% in 2014, a marginal uptick from 2013, and close to the
10-year average of 2.8%. Economic growth in advanced markets increased to 1.8%,
while the emerging markets had a difficult year with aggregate growth easing to
4.1%, well below the 10-year average of more than 6%.
The UK outperformed and, while US
growth accelerated, it was held back by
a weak first quarter.
The UK’s real GDP growth was the highest of the advanced economies last year.
It was based on a recovery in domestic consumption due to lower unemployment
and lower-than-expected fiscal tightening. In the US, growth accelerated slightly
to 2.4% but was held back by disruptive harsh winter conditions. In the Euro area,
growth improved but was uneven. Germany, Spain, Belgium and the Netherlands
accelerated, but growth in France continued to lag due to a lack of much needed
structural reforms. Italy remained in recession, but Greece finally grew. However,
Euro area unemployment remains near record highs, and the economic recovery
continues to be a jobless one for many Europeans. In CEE, growth in 2014 was held
back by geopolitical developments in Ukraine and Russia, with the latter annexing
the Crimean peninsula in March 2014.
Figure 2
Real GDP growth by region, 2014
and average 2004–2013
World
Advanced markets
North America
Western Europe
Advanced Asia
Oceania
Emerging markets
Emerging Asia
Latin America and the Caribbean
Central and Eastern Europe
Africa
Middle East and Central Asia
0%
2%
Growth rate 2014
Annual average growth rate 2004–2013
4%
6%
10%
8%
Note: countries’ GDP weighted with market exchange rates.
Source: Oxford Economics, WIIW, Swiss Re Economic Research & Consulting.
The VAT hike in Japan in April reduced
growth, and the BoJ pursued an
aggressive monetary easing policy.
In Japan, the Value Added Tax (VAT) hike in April 2014 lifted inflation only
temporarily and curtailed growth by more than expected, causing Premier Abe to
postpone to April 2017 a second increase originally planned for October 2015.
Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) embarked on enhanced quantitative and
qualitative easing in an attempt to reach the desired level of inflation (2% by March
2016), but with limited success. The weaker yen supported stronger exports and
growth, but without sufficient structural reform, economic growth in Japan is likely
to remain sluggish.
3 The aggregation
World of the individual economies that make up the global economy is weighted using US
Advanced
markets
dollar
GDP
based on market exchange rates. International statistics using purchasing-power parity place
North America
Western Europe
Advanced Asia
more weight
on fast-growing countries such as China and India and therefore show higher world GDP
Oceania
growth
rates.
Emerging
markets
South and East Asia
Africa
0
2
4
6
8
10
Emerging markets remained sluggish in
2014. In China, the government
continued to deflate the housing bubble.
Emerging markets experienced another hard year in 2014 as many countries
struggled with domestic difficulties and structural deficiencies, as well as increased
volatility from capital markets uncertain about the impact of Fed tapering. Growth in
China was, as expected, close to (but a bit under) 7.5%. However, the government
increasingly used fiscal and monetary policy stimulus to prevent a hard landing,
while slowly deflating the property bubble in an attempt to steer the country onto a
lower, more sustainable growth path. Other emerging Asian countries continued to
outperform their emerging market peers.
Growth in CEE was held back by sluggish
exports and sanctions on Russia. Brazil
suffered a lack of investor confidence.
Growth in CEE continued to be sluggish due to weak exports to the still-fragile
Western European economies. Meanwhile, sanctions on Russia due to the Ukraine
conflict hurt exports to the east and investor confidence in the region as a whole.
Growth in Latin America was again below trend as Brazil struggled with lower
demand and prices for its commodity exports. President Rousseff is now trying to
restore fiscal discipline and maintain price stability in order to avoid a sovereign
downgrade and to retain investors’ confidence. Venezuela and Argentina
experienced recessions and a deterioration in investor confidence, mainly due to
concerns over their international creditworthiness.
Structural weaknesses and mining strikes
hit growth in South Africa.
Growth in Africa was strong overall, but low in South Africa given structural
weaknesses and strike actions in the key mining sector. In the Middle East, growth
was broadly unchanged amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty, weak external
demand and a lower contribution from the hydrocarbons sector.
Déjà vu: advanced market stocks outperform emerging markets
Advanced-country equity markets
continued to outperform in 2014.
Equity markets continued to perform well in 2014, although market volatility
increased in the second half of the year. US stocks were the strongest (up 11%)
despite tapering of bond purchases, while the Japanese Nikkei rose 7%. In Europe,
markets moved sideways, and only took off in January 2015 after the European
Central Bank (ECB) announced its quantitative easing program. Emerging market
stocks underperformed again in 2014.
Figure 3
Global stock market performance,
2013–2015
140
(December 2013 = 100)
Emer
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
Jan 2013
Feb 2013
Mar 2013
Apr 2013
May 2013
Jun 2013
Jul 2013
Aug 2013
Sep 2013
Oct 2013
Nov 2013
Dec 2013
Jan 2014
Feb 2014
Mar 2014
Apr 2014
May 2014
Jun 2014
Jul 2014
Aug 2014
Sep 2014
Oct 2014
Nov 2014
Dec 2014
Jan 2015
Feb 2015
Mar 2015
Apr 2015
60
Emerging Markets (MSCI)
France (MSCI)
Germany (DAX 30)
Source: Datastream.
Japan (Nikkei 225)
UK (FTSE 100)
US (DJ Industrials)
Monetary policy in advanced markets
began to diverge last year, but yields
remain low.
Monetary policy in the advanced economies began to diverge in 2014. While the
Fed and Bank of England (BoE) scaled back their expansionary programmes, the BoJ
and ECB continued, or increased, their policy easing, keeping long-term bond yields
at record lows. Bond yields around the globe declined substantially. US and UK rates
were subdued despite a scaling back of quantitative easing, because the carry trade
from Germany and Japan held down rates. Furthermore, with diverging policy
expectations, the euro and yen weakened against the US dollar. As the low yield
environment persists, insurers’ investment returns are expected to be low also, with
running yields continuing to decline.
Euro area-periphery country bond spreads
narrowed in 2014, and emerging market
spreads widened.
Euro area bond spreads narrowed, except for Greece. Following presidential
elections, the left-wing radical Syriza movement came to power and has since tried
to renegotiate the terms of the Greece bailout, threatening a default if its demands
are not met. This has rocked investor confidence in Greece, but not the rest of the
periphery (Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain). Spreads on emerging market bonds
have widened because of political risks and the capital outflows linked to the
anticipation of Fed policy tightening.
Outlook: global economy and capital markets to continue to improve
Advanced economy growth is expected
to accelerate in 2015.
Growth in the advanced markets will accelerate in 2015. Low oil prices are expected
to boost the global economy and many countries will likely benefit from increasing
consumer spending and investment. The US economy is expected to strengthen
further this year. Job growth has accelerated which will boost consumer spending
and housing demand, stimulating additional business investment. In Europe, the UK
is set to outperform its continental neighbours once again, growing strongly as real
wages and consumption rise. The Euro area economies will continue to grow at
diverging speeds with Germany and Spain outperforming, and Italy and France
lagging due to lack of structural reforms. In Japan, growth has been fuelled by fiscal
and monetary stimulus, but the third pillar of Abenomics – structural reform – has
yet to be implemented.
Emerging market growth will weaken
further as low oil prices hurt some
exporters, while others struggle with
internal adjustments.
Despite stronger growth in advanced economies, emerging regions will struggle in
2015 as lower commodity prices reduce exports and US monetary policy tightens.
Growth in China is expected to slow further, close to the new target of 7% as the
housing market correction continues and incidents of debt default rise. The
authorities are trying to mitigate the impact of the housing correction by lowering
lending/deposit rates and by reducing the reserve requirement ratio for banks.
Likewise in Latin America, growth in Brazil is being held back by austere fiscal
policies intended to boost investor confidence and avoid a sovereign downgrade.
Growth will remain solid in Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and North Africa.
However, low oil prices will weigh on oil-exporting countries like Nigeria and Angola.
In CEE, growth will be held back by recession in Russia and uncertainty around the
Russia/Ukraine conflict. Stronger growth in the Euro area and a pick-up in
investment will only partially offset this drag.
The Fed is expected to be the first central
bank to raise rates, followed by the BoE.
Monetary policy around the globe is expected to diverge. The US Fed is expected
to raise interest rates in the third quarter of 2015 and subsequently continue to raise
rates gradually, assuming economic recovery continues. The BoE is expected to
follow suit in the first quarter of 2016 as employment growth continues and real
wages rise. The Euro area and Japan will maintain loose monetary policy. The ECB
will continue its asset purchase programme until the third quarter of 2016. The BoJ
will maintain its expansionary monetary policy to weaken the yen, accommodating
Abe’s attempts at structural reform.
Deflationary risks in the Euro area will
abate as slack in the economy is reduced
and the price of oil recovers.
Concerns about low inflation will continue, but deflation in the Euro area remains
unlikely because consumer price inflation will rise now that oil prices are no longer
falling. Surveys indicate that medium- to long-term inflation expectations in the Euro
area remain firmly anchored in positive territory, and that CPI inflation is expected
to increase slowly but surely once growth gains momentum at the end of 2015 and
throughout 2016. Inflation in the UK and the US is also expected to increase as
strong labour markets push up wages, supporting consumer spending and prices.
Euro area policy errors and emerging
market contagion are the main risks to
global growth.
The greatest downside risks to the global growth outlook are a renewed crisis in the
Euro area, a hard landing in China and an emerging market debt crisis. A severe
escalation of the Russia/Ukraine conflict could dampen growth in Europe, while the
situation in Greece remains fragile. Contagion of Greece’s problems to other
peripheral countries is less likely than in 2012, but a Greek exit from the Euro could
dampen growth and increase deflation risk in Europe. Also, the ECB’s quantitative
easing program has increased reform complacency in Europe. China has thus far
managed its slowdown well but to avoid a hard landing, the government needs to
remain vigilant in reforming the financial sector and also in monitoring the shadow
banking system and domestic debt. Emerging market debt poses a significant risk,
as appreciation of the US dollar makes US dollar-denominated debt more costly.
Life sector rebounds, non-life recovery continues
Global insurance premium growth resumes in 2014
Global premiums grew by 3.7% to
USD 4 778 billion in 2014.
The global insurance industry continued its recovery in 2014. Total direct premiums
written grew by 3.7% in 2014 to USD 4 778 billion after a year of stagnation in 2013.4
In the advanced markets, premiums increased by 2.9%, still below the pre-crisis
long-term growth rate of 3.4%. Emerging market premiums were up 7.4%.
Advanced markets premium growth
picked up in 2014 after five years of
stagnation.
After five years of stagnation, the growth in total premiums in the advanced markets
last year was substantial, and growth in the emerging markets held up well. The
weak growth in the advanced markets in the previous five years of stagnation was
mainly driven by positive and negative fluctuations in life premium developments.
Non-life premiums, meanwhile. have been on a gradual uptrend since 2009.
Figure 4
Total real premium growth in advanced
and emerging markets since 1980
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
–5%
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
–10%
Total
Advanced markets
Advanced markets 10-year moving average
Emerging markets
Emerging markets 10-year moving average
Life insurance: positive growth in spite of regional disparities
Global life insurance premiums rose 4.3%
in 2014 after a 1.8% decline in 2013, but
there was notable variation across regions.
Life insurance industry premium development
Global life insurance premiums written totalled USD 2 655 billion in 2014, up 4.3%
after a decline of 1.8% in 2013. Last year’s growth was even slightly higher than the
pre-crisis average (see Figure 6). There was considerable variation in the growth
patterns across regions and countries. Of the advanced markets, Oceania registered
solid growth, Western Europe and Japan regained momentum, and premiums in
North America continued to decline. Premium growth in Emerging Asia strengthened
but slowed in Latin America and Africa. In CEE, premiums fell again.
4 Unless otherwise stated, all premium growth rates indicate changes in real terms (ie, adjusted for local
consumer price inflation).
Figure 5
Life real premium growth, 2014
No data
< –10.0%
–10.0% to –5.0%
–5.0% to –2.5%
–2.5% to 0.0%
0.0% to 2.5%
2.5% to 5.0%
5.0% to 10.0%
> 10.0%
Life premiums in advanced markets
stagnated after the crisis.
Figure 6
Life premium growth in the advanced
and emerging markets, pre- and
post-financial crisis
Notwithstanding the acceleration in 2014, advanced-market life insurance premium
growth has generally stagnated since the financial crisis in 2008. Advanced Asia
and Oceania are the only regions to have seen higher average annual premium
growth. In the emerging markets, premium growth has been slower after than before
the crisis.
World
Advanced markets
North America
Western Europe
Advanced Asia
Oceania
Grow
Emerging markets
Emerging Asia
Africa
–5%
0%
Growth rate 2014
Pre-crisis average growth 2003–2007
Post-crisis average growth 2009–2014
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Life insurers’ profitability and capital position
Global life sector profitability improved slightly in 2014 with return on equity (ROE)
at around 13%, up from 12% in 2013. This was partly driven by stronger profits in
the UK due to one-off structural changes.5 The profitability of North American and
European insurers also picked up, based on solid stock markets, stronger premium
growth and cost containment. The life industry remains well capitalised, mirroring
solid business operations and strong profits. However, some support continues to
be provided by unrealized gains on bonds from the ultra-low interest rates. As interest
rates are expected to slowly rise, these gains will unwind and there will be a need for
some capital management.
Life insurers’ profitability improved
slightly in 2014, and the industry remains
well capitalised.
Figure 7
Return on equity (left panel) and
shareholder equity (right) of large life
insurers and globals with life business.
25%
200
20%
175
15%
(4Q07 = 100)
150
10%
125
5%
7 European Globals
2 Chinese companies
4Q14
2Q14
4Q13
2Q13
4Q12
4Q11
2Q12
2Q11
4Q10
2Q10
4Q09
2Q09
4Q08
2Q08
4Q14
2Q14
4Q13
4Q12
12 US companies
3 Canadian companies
Market cap weighted average
2Q13
2Q12
4Q11
2Q11
4Q10
2Q10
4Q09
2Q09
50
4Q08
–10%
2Q08
75
4Q07
–5%
4Q07
100
0%
6 UK companies
Note: Based on a sample of companies6, missing Q1/Q3 values are interpolated. For both Chinese
companies 4Q14 values not yet available, assumed to be equal to 3Q14.
Source: Company reports, Bloomberg, Swiss Re Economic Research & Consulting.
Life premium growth will improve in both the
advanced and emerging markets in 2015.
Life insurance industry outlook
Premium growth in the life sector is expected to remain fairly solid in the advanced
economies in 2015, and to accelerate further in the emerging markets. In North
America, growth will improve as the labour market and economy strengthen, but
will remain below trend. In Advanced Asia and Oceania, premiums are expected to
maintain their solid and steady growth trend. In the emerging markets, the acceleration
reflects sustained strong performance in Emerging Asia driven by China, and
accelerating growth in other regions, particularly Latin America. In China, in addition
to the government’s drive to increase insurance penetration, the promotion of health
insurance and age-related products should boost ongoing growth. In Latin America,
growth will be supported by a rebound in Mexico and stable growth across the rest
of the region. In Mexico particularly, pent-up demand from a growing middle class
should underpin a more pronounced recovery. The expectation for CEE this year is
that growth in Poland – which accounts for half of the region’s life premiums – will
resume, with insurers increasingly focusing on protection products because of the
implementation of Solvency II.
5 For example, Aviva’s 2013 reported ROE was boosted by one-off adjustments related to the sale of its
US life and annuities business.
6 AFLAC; Allianz; Assurant Inc; Aviva; AXA; China Life; CNP; Generali; Genworth Financial; Great-West
Lifeco; Hartford; Legal & General; Lincoln National; Manulife; Metlife Group; Old Mutual; Ping An;
Protective Life; Prudential (UK); Prudential (US); St. James Place ; StanCorp Financial Group; Standard
Life; Storebrand ASA; Sun Life; Swiss Life; Torchmark; UNUM Group; Zurich.
Pressure from low yields and regulation
will continue to depress profitability in
the life sector.
Investment yields – a key component of profitability for many life companies –
remain under pressure from the low interest rate environment. Hence, overall sector
profitability is unlikely to improve markedly in the near future as the burden from low
yields as well as ongoing regulatory changes continue, keeping ROE below the precrisis “normal”. Even after interest rates start to rise, it will take several years for
higher rates to filter through to investment returns and overall profitability.
Non-life: slightly higher premium growth, driven by advanced markets
Global non-life premium growth improved
slightly in 2014, mainly driven by
improvements in the advanced markets.
Non-life insurance premium development
Recovery in the non-life insurance sector continued in 2014, with global premiums
up 2.9% to USD 2 124 billion, slightly higher than the 2.7% growth of 2013 and also
better than the pre-crisis average growth (see Figure 9). The advanced markets were
the main drivers, with regional variations. There was slightly slower but still robust
8.0% growth in emerging markets premiums, down from 8.6% in 2013, but below
the pre-crisis average of 10%.
Figure 8
Non-life real premium growth in 2014
No data
< –10.0%
–10.0% to –5.0%
–5.0% to –2.5%
–2.5% to 0.0%
0.0% to 2.5%
2.5% to 5.0%
5.0% to 10.0%
> 10.0%
Figure 9
Non-life premiums growth in the
advanced and emerging markets,
pre- and post- financial crisis
World
Advanced markets
North America
Western Europe
Advanced Asia
Oceania
Emerging markets
Emerging Asia
Africa
–4%
0%
Growth rate 2014
4%
8%
12%
16%
Catastrophe losses in 2014 were below
the 10-year average, but there’s still a
large protection gap.
Profitability deteriorated in 2014
due to lower premium rates, reserve
releases and investment returns.
Catastrophe losses 7
In 2014, total insured and uninsured losses due to disasters were estimated at
USD 110 billion, down from USD 138 billion in 2013 and well below the inflationadjusted 10-year average of USD 200 billion. Asia was hardest hit with losses of
USD 52 billion. Cyclones in the Pacific created the most losses during the year, with
Cyclone Hudhud being the biggest event. Overall, the insurance sector covered
USD 28 billion of losses from natural catastrophes and USD 7 billion from man-made
disasters. Severe thunderstorms in the US and Europe trigged many of the insurance
claims. Harsh winters in the US and Japan were the other major causes of claims.
The large gap of USD 75 billion between total and insured losses highlights the lack
of insurance protection, particularly in emerging markets, but also advanced markets.
Non-life profitability
Overall profitability of the non-life insurance sector has been weak since 2008 due
to low investment yields and negative underwriting results from 2008 to 2012. Rate
hardening (increases) in a number of lines of business and markets has improved
underwriting results in recent years. However, in 2014 the rate increases slowed or
ceased: only some lines in US casualty were able to sustain moderate rate hardening.
Overall, the underwriting profitability for eight major markets deteriorated as the
combined ratio rose to 98.1% in 2014 from 97.5% in 20138. Underwriting profits in
the US were lower in 2014 than in 2013 due to increased catastrophe losses and a
reduced contribution from loss reserve releases relative to previous years. In Western
Europe underwriting profitability deteriorated as claims experience worsened and
reserve releases fell. Improvements in Germany were more than offset by weaker
results in France, Italy and the UK. In Japan, underwriting results continued to
improve over the year. Average total investment income as a share of net premiums
earned in the eight markets also fell, by 1 percentage point (ppt) to 8.6%.
Accordingly, the overall result was also reduced from 13.2% in 2013 to 11.8% in
2014, and average after-tax ROE declined from 8.6% in 2013 to 7.6% in 2014.
These trends are expected to continue, as shown in Figure 10.
7 sigma No 2/2015 Natural catastrophes and man-made disasters in 2014: convective and winter storms
generate most losses, Swiss Re.
8 The description of the performance of non-life insurance here is based on the aggregate of eight large
insurance markets: the US, Canada, the UK, Germany, France, Italy, Japan and Australia.
Figure 10
Composition of profits as a % of net
premiums earned and ROE, aggregate
of eight major markets, 1999–2015
20%
Aggregate of the US, Canada, the UK, Germany, France, Italy Japan and Australia
15%
10%
5%
0%
–5%
–10%
2015F
2014E
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
–15%
Underwriting result as a % of net premiums earned
Current investment income as a % of net premiums earned
Capital gains/losses as a % of net premiums earned
After-tax return on equity (%)
The non-life industry is well capitalized,
but challenges remain.
Figure 11
Non-life insurers’ solvency, 1999–2015
Non-life capitalization
The non-life sector remains well capitalized although industry solvency declined
slightly to 123% in 2014 from a record high of 126% in 2013. However, these
Generally accepted accounting priniciples’ (GAAP) figures overstate current capital
levels. In recent years, shareholder equity has been supported by higher unrealised
gains on fixed interest securities due to ultra-low interest rates and this will disappear
once rates begin to rise. The capitalisation is also challenged by the increasing
capital requirements as the non-life sector is exposed to larger natural catastrophes
and riskier assets. Meanwhile, substantial reserve releases in recent years have
affected the reserve adequacy, thus undermining the robustness of the potential
capital level.
1400
USD bn
Aggregate of the US, Canada, the UK, Germany, France,
Italy, Japan und Australia
140%
120%
1200
100%
1000
80%
800
60%
600
40%
400
20%
200
0%
Net premiums earned
Shareholders' equity
Solvency (capital/premiums – RHS)
2015F
2014E
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
0
Lower premium rates will weigh
on non-life insurance outlook.
Non-life insurance industry outlook
The outlook for the non-life insurance sector is mixed. Premium rates are expected to
remain low in most markets but an improving global economy should provide some
support for premium growth. In North America, growth could weaken due to slowing
price increases, and the outlook in Western Europe remains likewise subdued due to
the sluggish economic recovery. In Advanced Asia, the outlook is mixed. Premiums
are expected to improve slightly in Japan on account of increasing trade and
investment activities, while in South Korea a hike in motor rates and re-pricing of
private medical insurance products should lead to higher premiums. However, the
outlook remains challenging in other key Asian markets of the region.
Growth in Emerging Asia will likely
provide support.
Sector growth in the emerging markets should remain stable. In China, non-life
premiums are expected to continue to benefit from the government’s push to raise
insurance penetration, while in other key Asian markets economic growth should
offer support. On the other hand, non-life premium growth is expected to remain
subdued in Latin America because of the weak underlying momentum in most
countries there. In CEE non-life premiums are expected to decline in 2015. In Russia,
premiums are likely to contract due to recession, while the improving economic
environment in the CEE EU member states will support premium growth.
Overall profitability will remain subdued.
The profitability of non-life insurers will remain under pressure due to flat rate
developments at best and a smaller contribution from reserve releases. In addition to
lower underwriting results, profitability will continue to be affected for several years
by depressed investment returns. This is because it will take time for higher interest
rates to filter through to investment returns and overall profitability.
Stagnating non-life premiums in “old” Europe
Introduction
With a 30% share of global non-life premiums written, “old” Europe has played a
key role in the lacklustre development of global premium growth since the financial
crisis. Non-life premiums in western European markets have been flat since the
crisis. In 2014, real premiums were up just 0.5% on their level in 2007, the weakest
gain of any advanced market region over the last seven years. Premium development
in North America was likewise weak after the crisis: premiums declined through
2010, but growth has since turned positive (albeit only slightly). During the same
seven years, non-life premiums in advanced Asian markets and Oceania were up by
25% and 21%, respectively, and soared by more than 60% in some emerging market
countries (see Figure 12). What were the drivers for the poor performance in
Western Europe, and will this be the new norm?
Real non-life premiums in advanced
Europe were up just 0.5% in 2014 from
their level in 2007.
Economy: the key driver for non-life insurance demand
Economic growth and wealth are the most important determinants for insurance
market growth and penetration. Indeed, the weak economic environment in Western
Europe has been the main reason for weakness in the insurance market growth, with
GDP up by just 0.6% in 2014 compared to 2007. The situation is more dire on a realGDP-per-capita basis, which in 2014 was 2.2% less than the level of 2007. All other
major regions have fared better in this respect.
Economic weakness since the global
recession has curbed demand for
non-life insurance.
Figure 12
Real non-life premiums (left) vs real
GDP per capita (right)
170
(2007 = 100)
170
160
(2007 = 100)
160
Em
110
100
100
90
90
Advanced Europe
North America
Advanced Asia
Adv
Oceania
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
Adv
2007
2014
110
2013
120
2012
120
2011
130
2010
Nor
130
2009
Oce
2008
150
140
2007
150
140
Emerging markets
The S-curve depicts the relationship
between insurance and economic
development.
The relationship between economic and insurance market development can be
illustrated by the “S-curve” (see Box on following page). This depicts the relationship
between economic (GDP per-capita) and insurance market development based on
insurance penetration (share of insurance premiums in GDP).
The S-curve incorporates regression
analysis using data from 140 countries.
The S-curve
The S-curve was developed by Swiss Re Economic Research & Consulting.9 It is
updated annually with regression analysis using data from more than 140 countries.
It illustrates the global average relationship between economic development (GDP
per capita) and insurance market development (share of premiums in GDP).
Figure 13
S-curve in non-life insurance, 2014
US
Premiums as a % of GDP
4%
Canada
Venezuela
Switzerland
Germany
France
3%
South Africa
Morocco
2%
Kenya
1%
Tanzania
India
Spain
UK
Japan
Portugal
Australia
Namibia
Italy
Brazil
Poland
Ireland
Colombia
United Arab Emirates
China
Hong Kong
Russia Greece
Saudi Arabia
Mexico
Angola
Indonesia
Nigeria
0%
0.1
1
10
100
GDP per capita in USD 1000
Insurance spending rises fastest in
countries where GDP per capita ranges
from USD 5000 to USD 35 000.
The S-curve reveals that insurance spending rises fast in countries where GDP per
capita is in the region of USD 5000 to USD 35 000. In these countries, consumers
have a lot of ground to make up in terms of buying insurance cover, and spending on
insurance grows significantly faster than income. However, in countries with lower
and higher income levels, the income elasticity of insurance demand is closer to one.
In these countries, insurance premium growth is about the same as or slightly higher
than GDP growth. And in low-income countries, the level of wealth and also the level
of awareness of insurance, are too low to cause insurance demand to grow at a
faster rate than income.
Note, the S-curve does not account
for all of the definitional, cultural and
institutional differences in different
countries.
In high-income countries, on the other hand, a point of saturation has been reached:
people are wealthy enough to be able to afford to retain risks rather than pay to
insure them. Nonetheless, careful consideration should be given to the limitations of
the S-curve approach, as it does not factor in important aspects such as definitional,
cultural and institutional differences. In life insurance, for example, the existence of
state-sponsored social security schemes and tax advantages may be major
determinants of a decision to buy life insurance.
In mature markets, premiums tend to
move in line with GDP per capita.
With high incomes, most advanced countries in Europe are on the flat section of the
S-curve, meaning that insurance premiums will grow at about the same rate as real
GDP per capita. Hence in times of crisis, premiums are expected to stagnate or
decrease in line with GDP. Other factors can have a big impact also, such as changes
in pricing for insurance cover or changes in the legal environment (eg, the introduction
of compulsory insurance lines).
9 This finding was presented in sigma 5/1999 and Enz, Rudolf, “The S-curve relation between per-capita
income and insurance penetration,” The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance, vol 25, No 3, July 2000.
Stagnating non-life premiums in “old” Europe
Since the crisis, however, premium
growth in advanced Europe has followed
different paths across the different lines
of business.
While overall non-life premiums in Western Europe have been flat since 2007, as
would be expected by the S-curve, there have been significant variations across the
major lines of business (see Figure 14 below). For example, private medical
insurance premiums, which are classified as part of non-life in sigma terminology,
have risen unabated by 14% since the crisis (2% per annum). Meanwhile, property
insurance has followed a cyclical growth path and in 2014, property premiums were
just 2.4% higher than their level in 2007.
Figure 14
Real premium developments in Western
Europe for the major lines of business
Accident
Liability
Motor
Private medical insurance
2014
80
2013
80
2012
85
2011
85
2010
90
2009
90
2014
95
2013
95
2012
100
2011
100
2010
105
2009
105
2008
110
2007
110
(2007 = 100)
2008
115
(2007 = 100)
2007
115
Credit & Surety
Marine
Property
Private medical insurance premiums
have been consistently strong, but
casualty lines have suffered.
There have also been differences
in premium development on a
country-by-country basis.
At the same time, casualty lines were hard hit by the financial crisis. Premiums fell by
10% in real terms between 2007 and 2014, regardless whether business-driven
lines like general liability and accident, or motor insurance which is mostly purchased
by households. Marine insurance and credit & surety saw even larger declines in
premium volumes after the crisis. Indeed, by 2014 it was only strength in the private
medical insurance segment that prevented total western European real non-life
premiums from being below their level in 2007.
Premium development in the peripheral countries: particularly weak
On a country basis, non-life premium growth has not been uniformly weak since the
crisis either. In countries with more resilient economies such as Germany, Austria
and Norway, premiums have increased in some segments. But in the peripheral
countries (Spain, Italy, Greece, Ireland and Portugal) of Western Europe, non-life
premium volumes declined due to prolonged recessions. The declines often were
accentuated by rate decreases in personal and commercial lines of business.
Weakness in motor insurance business in
the peripheral countries after the crisis
dragged overall non-life premiums lower.
The key driver of the overall decline in non-life premiums in the peripheral countries
has been a very weak motor segment, the largest business line. In contrast, in these
countries too, private medical insurance premiums continued to grow strongly
(except in Italy).
Figure 15
Real motor premiums in select countries
(left) vs motor insurance penetration (right)
1.4%
(2007 = 100)
130
1.3%
120
1.2%
(Premiums/GDP)
1.1%
110
1.0%
100
0.9%
90
Germany
Greece
Italy
Portugal
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2007
2014
2013
2012
2011
0.5%
2010
60
2009
0.6%
2008
0.7%
70
2007
80
2009
0.8%
2008
140
Spain
In Italy, Spain and Portugal real
motor premiums declined by 30%
or more after 2007.
Portugal, Greece, Spain and Italy fell into deep recession in 2008–2009 and by
2014, only Spain and Portugal had returned to positive growth. Even so, real GDP
per capita in all four countries is still well below pre-crisis levels. With unemployment
surging after the crisis, people cut back on spending, drove less, stopped buying
new cars and cancelled own damage insurance covers. In Greece, premium growth
was supported by rate increases, but this stopped in 2012. In Italy however, rate
increases could not offset negative underlying fundamentals, and premiums
declined. The same was true in Portugal and Spain, where real motor premiums also
fell by 30% or more between 2007 and 2014, driving the decline in overall non-life
premiums. These countries also experienced a decline in insurance penetration as
nominal premiums fell more than nominal GDP (right chart in Figure 15),10
Outlook
If the economic recovery continues,
premium growth in advanced Europe
should be stronger than in 2007–2014.
The past seven years are not a good guide to future growth of non-life premiums in
Western Europe. The economic environment, while still weak, is expected to
continue to improve. Once unemployment falls notably, there will likely be a recovery
in premium growth. For example, consumers will start to buy more new vehicles,
increasing demand for motor insurance. In addition, demand for private medical
insurance is likely to continue to grow as the population in Europe ages.
10This is consistent with their location on the S-curve. They are at the upper end of the steep slope – GDP
changes give a greater movement in insurance premium change, in this case a negative change.
Advanced market premiums grow faster
than the economy
Global share of advanced markets declined slightly to 82.4% in 2014
Advanced countries continued to lose
insurance market share in 2014.
Life insurance premiums grew at a faster
rate than the economy …
Total premiums in the advanced markets grew by 2.9% in 2014 to USD 3 939 billion.
Even with a return to positive growth after a 1.0% decline in 2013, the advanced
countries’ market share of global premiums slipped to 82.4% in 2014 from 83.1% the
year before given a stronger performance by the emerging markets.
Life insurance
Total life premiums in the advanced markets grew by 3.8% in 2014, outpacing
GDP growth and increasing insurance penetration. In 20 of the 29 markets for which
data are available (see Figure 16, in which the light blue dots above the black line
reflect premium growth above GDP growth), life premiums growth outpaced
economic growth.
Figure 16
Life and non-life premium growth versus
GDP growth in the advanced markets, 2014
30%
25%
Real premium growth 2014
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
–5%
–10%
–15%
–0.5%
0.5%
1.5%
2.5%
3.5%
4.5%
Real GDP growth 2014
Life insurance
Non-life insurance
GDP growth equal to premium growth
... while non-life premiums grew at the
same rate as GDP.
Non-life insurance
In non-life, total premiums in the advanced markets grew by 1.8% in 2014, the same
speed as the economy overall, so insurance penetration remained unchanged.
Premium growth was stronger than GDP growth in half of the markets.
Insurance penetration and density
In 2014, the average per capita spend on insurance in advanced markets was
USD 3666, up around 2.5% from the previous year. Per capita spending on life
insurance rose to USD 2090 and in non-life to USD 1577. Penetration overall
remained at the same level.
Per capita spending on insurance in
advanced markets increased in 2014.
Figure 17
Insurance density and penetration
in advanced markets, 2014
Premiums in USD
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
Switzerland
Luxembourg
Denmark
Netherlands
Hong Kong
Finland
UK
Norway
Taiwan
US
Sweden
Ireland
France
G7
Japan
Singapore
Australia
Average
Canada
EU, 15 countries
Belgium
South Korea
Italy
Germany
Austria
New Zealand
Israel
Portugal
Spain
Iceland
Cyprus
Malta
Greece
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Life premiums per capita
Non-life premiums per capita
Total insurance penetration (lower axis)
Advanced market premiums grow faster than the economy
North America: life premiums contract, non-life continues to grow
Life premiums continued to decline in
North America in 2014, driven by
another contraction in the US.
US life premiums and profitability are
expected to improve in 2015.
Non-life premiums continued to grow in
the US and Canada in 2014.
North America premiums, 2014
World
market share
21.9%
39%
USD bn
580
825
Life
Non-life
3% Real premium growth
2%
1%
0%
–1%
–2%
–3%
Life
Non-Life
Life insurance
US life premiums fell by an estimated 2.5% in 2014 (2013: –7.6%) as sales of group
annuity business with guaranteed interest suffered from lower guarantee rates. The
individual annuities business strengthened and group life premiums returned to
positive, but low, growth. Individual life premiums were flat despite employment
gains. Re-pricing to account for lower interest rates and low experienced lapse rates
continued to affect Universal Life sales. Term sales also fell, pressured by a lack of
real wage growth. US life insurers’ balance sheets remained solid. Weak sales and
low investment yields challenged profitability, but income from alternative
investments and fees from rising equity markets both increased. Most companies
remained well capitalized and continued to distribute earnings back to shareholders.
In Canada, life premium growth improved to 3.5% in 2014. Group product sales
were strong, and growth was also aided by a first year of low positive growth in
individual annuities after four years of contraction. Universal Life sales supported
growth, while whole life sales slowed and term products contracted. Despite a step
down in interest rates, life insurers’ ROE improved slightly but was still below precrisis levels. The sensitivity of profits to interest rates has decreased in Canada’s life
sector because of repeated pricing actions and product repositioning, along with an
increased focus on hedging.
In the US, growing employment and consumer spending will support demand for life
insurance in 2015, but growth will likely fall short of the long-term trend. Interest
rates are expected to rise but will remain low, adversely affecting profitability. Also,
downside risks from higher financial market volatility have increased. In Canada,
premium growth is projected to slow slightly this year along with the economy, but
should revert to trend in 2016. Profitability is expected to remain in low doubledigits. The new regulatory capital framework due to come into effect in 2018 is likely
to keep companies conservative on capital deployment for the time being.
Non-life insurance
In the US, non-life premiums grew by 2.6% in 2014. There was a slowdown in rate
hardening across most lines of business, although rates in accident and health (A&H)
picked up considerably from 2013. Commercial lines rates fell at the end of 2014,
driven by commercial property and business interruption lines. The industry again
posted underwriting profits in 2014, but profitability deteriorated due to increased
catastrophe losses and a reduced contribution of prior-years’ loss reserves. Overall
sector ROE declined to 7.8%, reflecting reduced underwriting and investment
results, but the industry’s capital rose to a record high USD 710 billion. In Canada,
non-life premiums grew by 2.8% last year, largely driven by A&H. Motor premium
growth continued to slow due to reforms in Ontario, including a 15% rate cut to be
implemented by August 2015. Personal property premiums grew, supported by
price increases which came after the large natural catastrophe losses of 2013, while
commercial property and liability premium growth slowed. Underwriting results
remained stable
as much
lower catastrophe losses in 2014 were offset by the
Growth rateaverage
Post-crisis
2013 growth 2009-2013
waning positive impact of motor market reforms. A solid stock market and lower
interest rates
boosted
bond prices,
Pre-crisis
average
growth supported
2003-2007investment returns and raised after-tax
ROE to low double digits from 7.7% in 2013.11
Underwriting results in the US are expected to continue to decline moderately in
2015, based on slowing rate gains in commercial casualty and personal lines, softer
property lines and lower reserve releases. Investment yields are expected to decline
moderately due to still low interest rates. Premium growth in Canada is expected to
slow in 2015, but will be supported by continued strength in A&H. The flood-driven
increases in property rates over the past two years have mostly been implemented,
and the casualty market will remain soft.
Growth rate 2014
11 Under Canadian accounting rules, unrealized capital gains count as investment income.
Western Europe: life premiums solid, non-life returns to growth
Life premiums in Western Europe grew
by 5.8% to USD 983 billion in 2014.
Life insurance
In Western Europe, life insurance premiums grew by 5.8% in 2014, the highest
growth rate since 2007. Premium income developed favourably in most countries,
driven by strong sales of savings-type products. Premium income continued to soar
in Italy and Portugal (+23% and +13%, respectively), and was also strong in
Luxembourg, Greece, Norway, Sweden, Ireland, Belgium and France. Premium
growth was moderate in Germany (+2.3%) and Switzerland (+1.1%), and returned to
a positive territory in Austria (+2.3%) after four years of contraction. In the UK – the
region’s largest market – premiums stagnated. Premiums in the Netherlands
continued their steep decline for the third year in a row (–11%), with individual life
sales remaining week. This was driven by a move to tax-advantageous bank savings
products and also low consumer trust in life products.
Profitability has been stable, while
capitalization has improved.
Profitability in Western Europe remained stable during 2014. Life insurers benefitted
from investments in less liquid assets and from stronger stock markets. In the UK,
equities are an important part of UK life insurers’ asset allocation and their profits
duly surged. Western European life insurers’ capitalization continued to recover. This
mirrors solid business operations and strong profits, but also a renewed decline in
interest rates. Low interest rates continue to be a major challenge for life insurers.
The most exposed are insurers in Germany, the Netherlands and Norway given the
high prevalence of products with long-term and rigid interest-rate guarantees.
The near-term outlook for life insurers is
subdued but improving.
The near-term outlook is subdued.‎Sluggish economic growth and high joblessness
will continue to constrain demand for life insurance. However, there will be demand
for protection, savings and retirement products given a rapidly ageing population
and as responsibility for retirement financing increasingly shifts to individuals.
Growth will again decline and level-off at about 2.5% in real terms in the next years.
Non-life premiums in Western Europe
returned to growth in 2014 after three
years of decline.
Western Europe premiums, 2014
Life
Non-life
7%
World
market share
37%
30%
USD bn
983
644
Real premium growth
6%
5%
4%
3%
Non-life insurance
In 2014, non-life premiums in Western Europe grew slightly (+0.6%) after three
years of decline and stagnation. Germany, the UK and France recorded premium
volume increases of 1.3%, 1.7% and 1.0%, respectively. In Germany, A&H premiums
declined slightly, while motor expanded for the fourth year in a row due to rate
increases. Domestic property also grew, based on automatic inflation adjustments
and growing demand. In the UK, premiums were up again as rate improvements
supported premium growth. In France growth was led by A&H (+3%) and household
insurance (+4.5%). The Nordic markets were relatively strong. Among the southern
peripheral EU countries, growth resumed in Spain and Portugal, while Greece
showed another steep decline (–8.4%). In Italy premiums declined by 3% again
driven by motor (–7%), reflecting a fall in new car registrations, while business
related and property lines grew.
Underwriting profitability in Western Europe worsened in 2014, with an average
combined ratio
in the four
largest markets (France, Germany, Italy and the UK) of
Growth rateaverage
Post-crisis
2013 growth 2009-2013
99% (in 2013 it was 98%). Reserve releases continued, but at a reduced pace.
Improvements
in Germany
to lower
natural catastrophe claims and better
Pre-crisis
averagedue
growth
2003-2007
underwriting results in motor were more than offset by worse results in France, Italy
and the UK.
Non-life premium growth in Western Europe will remain subdued in light of a stillweak economic recovery. Underwriting profitability is expected to remain flat as
moderate claims growth and positive reserve developments restrain price increases.
Overall, profits will at best remain flat as investment yields will stay low.
2%
1%
0%
Life
Non-Life
Growth rate 2014
Advanced market premiums grow faster than the economy
Advanced Asia: life business improves, non-life growth eases
Life premium growth in the advanced
Asian markets improved in 2014.
Life insurance
Life insurance premiums in the advanced Asian markets returned to growth in 2014,
up 4.5% after a 6.4% decline in 2013. This was mainly due to a recovery in South
Korea (premiums up 6.3%), where there had been a significant slump the previous
year due to the termination of tax benefits and consequent fall in sales of singlepremium saving products. Premium growth in Taiwan increased to 6.3% in 2014
from 3.2% in 2013, due to sustained demand for variable annuity and variable life
insurance products. In comparison, Hong Kong and Singapore both reported more
tempered but still respectable growth. In Japan, the cuts in the assumed interest
rates in April 2013 resulted in a tangible contraction in individual life business that
year, but the negative effect dissipated in 2014. Total life premiums growth was
3.3% last year after an 8.1% decline in 2013.
Profitability remains stable …
Life insurers in advanced Asia continued to report good profits in 2014, supported
by stable investment results. Insurers have increased their overseas exposures,
particularly to the US, to improve return on investment. The reduction in assumed
interest rates in Japan and strong inflow of new business in Taiwan helped contain
insurers’ cost of liabilities. South Korea, however, is exposed to negative spreads,
with guaranteed interest rates below market rates.
… but economic headwinds make for a
challenging outlook.
Insurance demand is expected to remain flat in Japan in the near term alongside
rising wages and household income. The demand recovery in South Korea will
continue into 2015 but at a modest pace, given weaker economic momentum and
lower interest rates. Hong Kong and Singapore will also likely see slower growth
because of a more challenging economic backdrop.
Regional non-life premium growth eased
in 2014 due mainly to weakness in
Japan. Profitability, however, remained
solid.
Advanced Asia premiums, 2014
World
market share
23%
9%
USD bn
605
198
Life
Non-life
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
–1%
Life
Non-Life
Growth rate 2014
Non-life insurance
Non-life premiums in the advanced Asia markets rose only by 1.7% in 2014 after a
5.2% gain in 2013. Premium growth in Japan slowed notably to 0.8% from 7.2% in
2013, as the impact of earlier motor rate hikes dissipated. In South Korea, a slowing
economy impacted non-life premium growth, particularly in the property, marine and
surety businesses. Premium growth in Hong Kong was weak at 1.4% in 2014, with
growth mainly driven by A&H. In Taiwan and Singapore, non-life premiums grew by
3.9% and 6.7%, respectively. Sector profitability remained largely solid in Advanced
Asia. In Japan, non-life underwriting results continued to improve over the year and
in other markets, an absence of major natural catastrophe-related claims offered
support. Nevertheless, rising motor claims are a growing concern in South Korea and
Hong Kong. In South Korea, there is also unease about rising claims in the long-term
healthcare, casualty and marine lines of business.
Premiums are expected to increase at a mild pace in Japan in 2015 based on
increasing trade and investment activities. Hikes in motor rates and a re-pricing of
private medical insurance products in South Korea will likely translate into stronger
overall premium
growth. The outlook for Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore remains
Growth rate 2014
challenging due to heightened competitive pressures and weaker economic growth.
Oceania: another strong year for life, less so for non-life
Life premium growth in Oceania in 2014
was underpinned by strong growth
in Australia.
The life sector is expected to sustain
moderate premium growth and steady
profitability.
Non-life premium growth in personal lines
slowed; commercial lines were mixed.
Oceania premiums, 2014
World
market share
2.2%
2.0%
USD bn
58
42
Life
Non-life
25%
Life insurance
In Oceania, overall life insurance premium growth was strong at 27% in 2014, up
from 9.3% in 2013. The surge was mainly due to strong growth in Australia (+28%),
where life insurers’ investment-type business gained from stronger equity markets.
The risk business also continued to grow, particularly for group risk insurance where
rates were revised upwards sharply to reflect recent poor disability claims. Australian
life insurers’ after tax profits improved by 23% in 2014, and the industry’s capital
base remains very strong. In New Zealand, total life premiums grew by 2.8% in 2014
(2013: +2.3%). By product, growing sales of trauma insurance12 and income
protection-type products was partly offset by a continued decline in sales of whole
life, endowment and unbundled traditional products.
The life insurance industry is expected to sustain moderate premium growth and
steady profitability in 2015. In Australia, steep increases in group risk insurance
premium rates should support underwriting profits, but worsening claims and lapse
rates remain a concern. Meanwhile, life insurers will continue to adjust to regulatory
changes such as the Future of Financial Advice (FOFA).13 At the same time, the
Stronger Super reforms14 remain a focus as life insurers become increasingly
integrated with financial/wealth management businesses. In New Zealand, life
companies are facing increased compliance and capital requirements. For instance
in December last year, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand amended the definition of
capital and tightened solvency requirements on guarantees and reinsurance.
Non-life insurance
Non-life insurance premium growth in Oceania eased to 2.6% in 2014 from 5.0% in
2013. In Australia, non-life premiums grew by 2.2% in 2014 (2013: +5.7%). Motor
and personal property premium growth eased while commercial property insurance
premiums declined. Professional indemnity and employer liability premiums were
sluggish, but growth in public and product liabilities was solid. Non-life insurers
reported a 9.1% drop in after tax net profit in 2014, reflecting rising claims due to the
hailstorm in Brisbane in November and weaker investment yields. Non-life direct
insurers’ solvency ratio declined to 180% by end-2014 from 188% at end-2013. This
was mainly due to an increase in the outstanding “claims provision insurance risk”
charge and the Insurance Concentration Risk Charge (ICRC), from the revised capital
standards effective 1 January 2014. In New Zealand, non-life insurance premiums
rose 3.9% last year (2013: +2.5%). Natural perils experience was benign.
Non-life premium growth in Oceania is expected to decelerate this year amidst a
combination of benign natural catastrophe losses, low underlying claims inflation
and ample capacity. An expansive range of regulatory changes present major
challenges for non-life insurers in the region. For example, revised capital standards
in Australia have led to a 7% increase in the non-life industry’s total ICRC. Some
additional new standards on disclosure and risk management took effect on
1 January 2015.
Growth rate 2013
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
–5%
Life
Non-Life
Growth rate 2014
12 Trauma insurance provides cover for critical illness, which is a type of health insurance product.
13 In July 2013, the FOFA reforms made it mandatory for financial services providers, including insurance
brokers, to place clients’ interests ahead of their own when providing personal advice to retail clients. The
legislation also prohibits commissions on risk insurance within Superannuation. Please see http://
futureofadvice.treasury.gov.au/content/Content.aspx?doc=home.htm
14 The Stronger Super reforms aim for a low-cost and more transparent superannuation system. For details,
please see http://strongersuper.treasury.gov.au/content/Content.aspx?doc=reforms.htm
Emerging regions continue to gain market share
Solid growth in life and non-life continues
Premium growth in the emerging
markets remained strong in 2014.
Life insurance penetration increased.
Total insurance premiums written in emerging markets in 2014 rose by 7.4% to
USD 839 billion, and premium growth continued to outpace GDP growth. The global
share of emerging market premiums grew by 0.6 ppt to 17.6%.
Life insurance
Life premiums in the emerging markets overall grew by 6.9%, well above economic
growth of 4.1% in 2014. This was the case in 30 of the 48 markets for which data
are available. In Figure 18, the light blue dots above the black line represent those
markets where premium growth exceeded GDP growth last year, meaning an
increase in insurance penetration. The key markets where life premium growth
lagged economic expansion were Colombia, Turkey and Poland, with a sharp
premium decline in all three. There were premium declines in five other emerging
countries also.
Figure 18
Life and non-life premium growth versus
GDP growth in emerging markets, 2014
25%
20%
Real premium growth 2014
15%
10%
5%
0%
–5%
–10%
–15%
–20%
–25%
–5%
0%
5%
10%
Real GDP growth 2014
Life insurance
Non-life insurance
GDP growth equal to premium growth
Premium growth in the non-life sector
was stronger than in life.
Spending on insurance in the emerging
market is increasing.
Non-life
Non-life premiums in the emerging markets overall grew by 8.0% in 2014, more than
in the life sector. In each year since 2006, emerging market non-life premiums have
risen by 1.5 times the annual average economic growth rate, resulting in an ongoing
deepening of insurance penetration. This is what would typically be expected in less
developed markets. At the country level, insurance penetration increased in 28 of
the 49 markets for which 2014 data are available.
Insurance penetration and density
Average per capita spending on insurance in emerging markets rose to USD 136 in
2014 from USD 127 in 2013, of which USD 68 went to life insurance and USD 67 to
non-life. The average insurance penetration in emerging markets in 2014 was
unchanged at 2.7%.
Figure 19
Insurance density and penetration in
emerging markets, 2014
Premiums in USD
0
500
1000
1500
2000
Macao
Bahamas
Slovenia
Qatar
South Africa
Trinidad and Tobago
Venezuela
Czech Republic
Mauritius
Chile
Malaysia
Slovakia
Poland
Brazil
Namibia
Argentina
Hungary
Croatia
Uruguay
Panama
Thailand
Lebanon
Kuwait
Saudi Arabia
Oman
Jamaica
PR China
Costa Rica
Mexico
Colombia
Russia
Bulgaria
Turkey
Average
Romania
Peru
Serbia
Ecuador
Morocco
Jordan
Iran
Tunisia
Kazakhstan
Dominican Republic
Indonesia
Philippines
Ukraine
Angola
India
Guatemala
Algeria
Sri Lanka
Kenya
Vietnam
Egypt
Pakistan
Nigeria
Bangladesh
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
Life premiums per capita
Non-life premiums per capita
Total insurance penetration (lower axis)
Emerging Asia: growth accelerates in life, is mixed in non-life
Life premiums growth in emerging Asia
accelerated last year, driven by strong
performance in China.
Life insurance
Life insurance premium growth in Emerging Asia accelerated to 9.9% in 2014 from
3.3% in 2013. The strong performance reflected a recovery in China (+13%) driven
by new distribution channels such as internet sales, a recovery in bancassurance and
lower surrenders. Elsewhere in the region, growth remained strong in Thailand
(+12%), the Philippines (+13%) and Vietnam (+13%). In Indonesia, life insurance
premium grew by just 3.1% as sales of investment-linked products began to level off
following years of strong growth. In India, premium growth improved from 2013
(–0.2%) but remained weak at 1.0%, reflecting sustained weakness in sales of unitlinked products.
The outlook for premium growth is
favourable, although profitability remains
under pressure.
The growth outlook for life premiums in Emerging Asia remains favourable. In China,
the government targets an increase in (total) insurance penetration to 5% by 2020,
up from 3.3% in 2014. In India, the passage of the Insurance Laws (Amendment) Bill
is expected to stimulate the market and also boost consumer confidence in insurers.
On the other hand, continued loose monetary policy in the region will put pressure
on the competitiveness of life saving products relative to wealth management
products offered by banks. And in China, the insurance regulator recently allowed a
raising of the interest rate ceiling on universal life products to 3.5% from 2.5%. This
could reignite concerns about negative spreads if insurers start offering more
products close to the new ceiling.
Lower interest rates present challenges
for life insurers.
Recent interest rate cuts in several countries including China, India, Thailand and
Indonesia will put further pressure on insurers’ profits. This could, however, be partly
offset by better investment returns from equity investments, especially in China
where stocks have performed well in recent months.
Non-life premium growth remains strong
in China but is mixed in Southeast Asia.
Emerging Asia premiums, 2014
World
market share
10.4%
9.0%
USD bn
275
190
Life
Non-life
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
Life
Non-Life
Growth rate 2014
Non-life insurance
Non-life insurance premiums in Emerging Asia grew by 15% in 2014, slightly higher
than the 13% growth achieved in 2013. Premium growth remained strong in China
(+17%), mainly driven by motor, guarantee & credit and agricultural insurance
business. In Southeast Asia, economic headwinds weighed on non-life premiums,
with Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines posting lower growth. In Thailand, the
slowdown in premiums was exacerbated by political instability, with non-life
premium growing only marginally (+1.1%) rather than the double-digit increases of
previous years. By contrast, premium growth picked up in Vietnam (+7.3%) as the
economy stabilised and banking sector reform got underway. Similarly, in an
environment of improving business sentiment and accelerating economic growth,
premium growth in India improved modestly to 4.8% in 2014 from 2.4% a year
earlier. A benign claims environment persisted in 2014, with no significant natural
catastrophes hitting the region, thus supporting profitability of non-life insurers.
Non-life premium growth is expected to remain strong in Emerging Asia in 2015,
driven by solid
economic
performance and favourable government policies. In China,
Growth
rate 2014
Post-crisis
growth
2009-2013
non-life premiums
areaverage
expected
to benefit
from the government’s intent to raise
Pre-crisis average
insurance penetration.
And growth
the new2003-2007
governments in India and Indonesia are carrying
out pro-growth structural reforms, including increased spending on infrastructure,
which should boost demand for non-life insurance. A more stable political
environment in Thailand should facilitate a swift recovery in non-life insurance
premium growth. On the other hand, Malaysia faces increasing constraints on public
infrastructure spending as lower oil prices cut into government revenues. Also, full
de-tariffication of motor insurance in 2016 could also erode margins of non-life
insurers in Malaysia as competition increases.
Latin America: softer markets across the region
Life insurance premiums in Latin America
grew by 3.3% in 2014, well below the
long-term trend.
Premium growth will be subdued in the
short to medium term.
Non-life premiums in Latin America were
up 4.7% in 2014.
Latin America premiums, 2014
World
market share
2.8%
5.3%
USD bn
75
113
Life
Non-life
8%
7%
6%
Life insurance
Life insurance premiums in Latin America and the Caribbean grew by 3.3% in 2014,
down from 4.2% growth in 2013 and well below the post-financial crisis average
growth rate of around 8%. With the exception of Brazil and Peru, all other large
markets in the region recorded significantly weaker premium growth. Colombia
experienced the steepest decline (–18%) due mostly to a large pension transfer in
2013 between two state-owned entities.15 Lower pension and annuity premiums
were the main drags on headline growth in Colombia, Mexico, Chile and Argentina.
This contrasts with Brazil and Peru where savings and retirement products have
supported growth. In Brazil, which accounts for 60% of life premiums in the region, a
strong rebound in the popular life-savings product VGBL (Vida Gerador de Benefícios
Livres) was the main reason behind a recovery in premium growth to 5.4% in 2014
from 1.3% in 2013.
The premium growth slowdown in the region is expected to carry over into 2015
and the next couple of years. The rebound from a low base that propelled strong life
premium growth in Brazil – and the region as a whole – is likely to fade by the middle
of 2015. Weaker consumer demand and rising unemployment will weigh on group
life business in Brazil. The outlook is brighter for Mexico and Chile, the second- and
third-largest life markets in the region respectively, given stronger macroeconomic
fundamentals. However, premium growth will remain below recent trend levels in
the short to medium term. Price competition, weaker consumer demand and labour
markets, and heightened financial volatility will affect the industry in the region.
Non-life insurance
Non-life insurance premiums grew by a solid 4.7% in 2014, down from 6.8% in
2013. Growth ticked up in Chile, Colombia and Venezuela, and slowed in Brazil,
Argentina, Peru and Mexico. The heaviest drag came from Mexico where non-life
premiums contracted by 1.4%, largely from lower property (–9%) and motor (–1%)
premiums due to sluggish economic growth, the delay in renewing large government
policies and fierce price competition in the motor segment. The impact of slower
economic growth was even more pronounced in Argentina, Brazil and Peru,
particularly in engineering and marine insurance. In Colombia, declines in specialty
lines insurance were more than offset by robust growth in accident and motor
premiums. In Venezuela, where the non-life segment makes up nearly 75% of
premiums, the oil shock has had more far-reaching consequences.
Non-life premium growth in Latin America is forecast to slow further in 2015 before
improving gradually thereafter. Tighter foreign and domestic liquidity, weak
economic growth and less supportive fiscal policies will restrain insurance demand
in the next two years. Most central banks are expected to follow Brazil and
Colombia’s lead and tighten monetary policy in 2015. While this will boost insurers’
investment earnings, the knock-on effects on domestic demand will affect premium
growth also,
especially
for interest-rate
sensitive property and credit products. On
Growth
Post-crisis
rateaverage
2014
growth 2009-2013
the supply-side, the advent of risk-based solvency regulation in Mexico, Brazil and
Chile duringPre-crisis
the nextaverage
couplegrowth
of years
will further erode insurers’ operating margins in
2003-2007
these markets.
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
Life
Non-Life
Growth rate 2014
15 This was a large contract between the state-owned telecommunication company ETB and the
state-owned insurer Positiva Vida. As per the contract, ETB transferred its pension liabilities to Positiva in
exchange for a lump sum COP 1.2 trillion payment. Even after excluding this one-off transaction,
Colombian life insurance premiums grew by only 1% in 2014.
Central and Eastern Europe: premiums down on large-market issues
Life premiums declined in CEE, driven
by Poland, but many markets continued
to improve.
Premium growth should resume with
economic strengthening. However,
the Ukraine crisis casts uncertainty
over the region.
Non-life premiums declined in 2014, as
growth in Russia turned negative and
continued to decline in some
EU-member countries.
Central and Eastern Europe premiums,
2014
World
market share
0.7%
2.4%
USD bn
20
50
Life
Non-life
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
–2%
–4%
Life
Non-Life
Growth rate 2014
Life insurance
In CEE, life insurance premiums declined by 2.1% in 2014 (2013: –3.3%). However,
the overall negative result masks improvements in many countries. In Poland,
premiums declined by 12%, an improvement on the 17% decline in 2013. However,
tax changes related to interest earned on savings products, as well as poor
investment performance due to capital market weakness, continued to affect sales.
In some of the life markets of CEE European Union (EU)-member countries (Hungary,
Slovakia and the Baltic States), premiums continued to grow while in Slovenia, the
Czech Republic and Romania, contraction slowed or stabilised. In Russia, life
insurance showed some resilience to last year’s economic challenges, up 19% in real
terms, although this was below the average of the previous two years. The premium
growth in Russia was driven by sales of credit-related products. Premium growth in
Belarus slowed, while in the Ukraine life insurance sales declined by 21% in 2014,
reflecting the surging inflation that has resulted out of the Russia/Ukraine conflict.
In the CEE EU member countries, particularly Poland, life insurance premium growth
will benefit from strengthening economies, falling unemployment and rising
disposable incomes. Improving equity markets should raise the attractiveness of life
insurance products across the region. Premiums in Russia are expected to decline
steeply in 2015. With consumer confidence in freefall because of rouble weakness
due to the crisis in the Ukraine, surging inflation and interest rates, the consumer
credit boom is due to reverse. This will affect sales of life products in Russia.
Non-life insurance
Non-life premiums in CEE declined by 1.2% in 2014 (2013: +2.5%). Growth
deteriorated further in the largest market Russia (–0.3%) due to the Ukraine conflict.
The declines were much heavier in Ukraine (–15%), Romania (–6%) and Croatia
(–10%). Premiums in Poland, the second largest market in the region, stagnated
(+0.2%) as demand for motor insurance remained weak (–3% in 2014 vs –6% in
2013) and competition kept rates down. Premium growth in liability and property
lines also declined, while financial protection insurance recovered and the A&H
business continued to grow. Motor insurance also caused an overall decline in nonlife premiums in Slovenia. The picture was reversed in the Czech Republic and
Hungary, where overall non-life premiums grew by 1.5% and 3%, respectively, based
on stronger motor insurance sales. Health insurance remained the strongest area of
growth in CEE. Meanwhile non-life premiums in the Baltic States grew, with Latvia
and Estonia outpacing Lithuania where, against the regional trend, health insurance
declined. Belarus and Kazakhstan experienced declines in premiums, as close ties
with the flagging Russia economy hurt premium volume growth. Underwriting
profitability was stable despite heavy flooding in Serbia, Bosnia and Croatia, and a
hailstorm in Sofia. This follows from the low insurance penetration in these regions.
Economic recovery in the CEE region and also its EU trading partners should result in
lower unemployment, rising consumption and more investment activity in 2015, and
Growth rateaverage
Post-crisis
2014 growth 2009-2013
to stronger premium growth. However, uncertainty surrounding the Ukraine conflict
presents a significant
downside
risk.2003-2007
In Russia, the conflict has undermined investor
Pre-crisis average
growth
sentiment and led to capital flight and rouble weakness. Russia will be in deep
recession this year, which will lead to a decline in premiums as insurers feel the full
force of the conflict and sanctions. Paradoxically, rouble weakness means that motor
claims should increase on the back of more expensive imported spare parts.
The Middle East, Central Asia, Turkey: slow growth in life and non-life16
Life premiums growth slowed to 1% in
the Middle East, Central Asia and Turkey
in 2014, mostly driven by a double-digit
decline in Turkey.
The outlook is positive given low
penetration, rising risk awareness and
favourable demographics.
In 2014, non-life premiums expanded by
5.9%. Growth was solid in most markets,
but not in Turkey.
Middle East, Central Asia, and Turkey
premiums, 2014
World
market share
0.2%
1.9%
USD bn
6
40
Life
Non-life
16%
14%
12%
10%
Life insurance
Life insurance premium growth in the Middle East, Central Asia and Turkey slowed to
1% in 2014 from 12% in 2013. In Turkey, which constitutes close to a quarter of the
region’s life sector, premiums declined by 12% while in the UAE, premiums grew by
an estimated 12%, driven by demand from the expatriate population and a growing
middle class. In Saudi Arabia, life premiums grew by 4.2% in 2014 after four
consecutive years of decline. The previous years’ decline was due to a shift in the
investment patterns of the general population from savings products like insurance
to the greater returns yielded in the equity markets. Elsewhere, life premium growth
in Bahrain moderated after a significant slowdown in 2013, due to a fall in family
takaful contributions.
Overall, the outlook for life insurance in the region is positive. Low penetration rates
and increasing awareness will help drive demand. A high proportion of the workingage population will push the demand for savings, protection and retirement products.
At the same time, growing wealth and personal income will lead to increased demand
for wealth protection and accumulation products. Further, increased acceptance and
penetration of sharia-compliant products like family takaful will support growth of
the life insurance sector. So too will the use of different distribution channels such as
bancassurance/bancatakaful.
Non-life insurance
The non-life insurance sector in the Middle East, Central Asia and Turkey is estimated
to have grown by 5.9% in 2014 (2013: +7.8%). In Turkey, premiums stagnated.
Declines in motor and engineering premiums were offset by double-digit increases
in general liability, aviation, credit & surety and agriculture, and single-digit growth in
health, property, worker’s compensation and marine premiums. In Saudi Arabia,
non-life premiums grew by 18% in 2014. The growth was supported by the relatively
stable economic environment and strong growth in recently introduced compulsory
lines. Premiums written in health insurance, the biggest line of business, were up
19% from 10% growth in 2013, as the minimum limit for coverage was doubled.
Motor premium growth remained strong at 23%, although lower than the 31%
registered in 2013. In the UAE, non-life premiums grew by an estimated 10% in
2014, mainly driven by a strong growth in medical insurance premiums, the fastest
growing line of business there. In Kazakhstan, non-life premiums declined by 10%,
due to contagion from the Russia-Ukraine crisis.
The outlook for the non-life sector in the Middle East, Central Asia and Turkey is
cautiously optimistic. The introduction of compulsory lines, spending on infrastructure
and construction projects, and improving regulatory regimes should all boost
growth. Medical insurance is expected to expand robustly as governments enact
or extend laws on compulsory medical insurance coverage, for example in Saudi
Arabia, Qatar and UAE. In personal lines, premium growth will pick up as the middle
class expands,
awareness
acceptance
of takaful and conventional insurance
Growth
Post-crisis
rateaverage
2014and
growth
2009-2013
products rises, and more banks begin selling insurance products. In Turkey, non-life
average
2003-2007
insurance isPre-crisis
expected
to pickgrowth
up again
as the domestic recovery strengthens and the
global economy accelerates in 2015. Competition in the region is likely to remain
intense, applying pressure on rates and reducing profitability of insurers.
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
Life
Non-Life
Growth rate 2014
16The figures in this section exclude Israel, which falls under advanced countries.
Africa: slow premium growth in life and non-life
Life insurance premiums in Africa grew
by just 1.6% in 2014 due to a sluggish
market in South Africa.
Life premiums should grow solidly in the
mid- to longer term.
Non-life premium growth in Africa
slowed in 2014, also mostly due to
weakness in South Africa.
Africa premiums, 2014
Life
Non-life
6%
World
market share
1.7%
1.1%
USD bn
46
23
Real premium growth
Life insurance
Life insurance premium growth in Africa slowed to 1.6% in 2014 from 6.0% in 2013.
In South Africa, the largest market with 87% of the region’s premiums, growth
slowed to an estimated 0.9% from 6.2% in 2013 due to a reduction in recurring
premiums and lower single premiums flow. This, in turn, was caused by lower
economic activity and higher inflation, the latter impacting household income. In the
rest of Africa, life premiums grew by more than 10% last year, based on estimates
and preliminary data for a few countries. Premiums in Morocco, the second largest
market, rebounded robustly (+11%), driven by a strong recovery in group and
individual business, and a surge in unit linked business from a low level in 2013. The
life sector in Egypt continued its solid recovery with 6.5% premium growth in 2014
(2013: +6.6%). There was continuted positive growth momentum in Sub-Saharan
Africa (SSA) too. In Kenya life premiums were up 18% after a 12% gain in 2013, and
growth was strong in Zimbabwe. In western Africa, the life markets in Ghana and
Nigeria are estimated to have grown solidly last year. For other SSA markets, the
latest data available are for 2013 only. The numbers suggest that premiums grew by
a modest 4.3% in SSA (excluding South Africa) in 2013.
In South Africa, a gradually improving economy should support growth in the life
sector this year. Elsewhere in Africa, premium growth is likely to slow in the oil
exporting countries in the near term, as lower economic growth and weaker
currencies reduce disposable income. However, in the mid- to long term, very low
insurance penetration, strengthening economies, increasing disposable incomes
and favourable demographics will boost demand. Even in South Africa, where
insurance penetration is high, there is still a large coverage gap for certain population
segments and this should boost premium growth in the future.
Non-life insurance
Non-life premiums in Africa are estimated to have increased by 1.8% in 2014, down
from 4.4% growth in 2013. South Africa was the main contributor to the region’s
overall slowdown, with premium growth there estimated to have moderated to 1.6%
(2013: 2.6%) despite some insurers increasing premium rates in excess of inflation.
At the same time, however, underwriting results in South Africa showed modest
improvement from the previous year. That’s because claims costs in 2013 moved
higher due to adverse weather events and a weak rand. In the other markets for
which data are available, growth remained solid in Morocco (+4.2%) in 2014, with
motor benefitting from higher rates. In Egypt premiums declined slightly (–1.8%).
Even though growth slowed in Kenya, it remained strong at 9.3% (2013: 14%). The
slowdown was the result of medical insurance growth weakening to 13% after a
strong increase of almost 50% in 2013. In Ghana, premiums fell by around 10% due
to enforcement of a regulation allowing companies to provide cover only if the
premium is paid before inception. Non-payment of premiums is a concern across
Africa. In Nigeria, it is believed to have led to stagnation in non-life premium growth.
Growth rateaverage
Post-crisis
2014 growth 2009-2013
In South Africa, premium growth and underwriting performance will primarily
2003-2007
depend on Pre-crisis
whether average
insurersgrowth
can pass
on adverse claims costs to policyholders amid
heightened competition. Elsewhere, in the oil and commodity exporting countries,
collapsing oil prices will constrain economic and insurance premium growth as
governments need to cut back on spending in 2015. Oil importing countries are
likely to see a solid performance. Premium growth in Africa overall should recover in
2016 as economic growth gains momentum and insurance markets continue to
mature. Over the longer term, in most markets rising infrastructure investment and a
growing middle class should deepen insurance penetration as higher household and
corporate wealth translates into higher demand for risk protection.
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
Life
Non-Life
Growth rate 2014
Methodology and data
This study looks at insurance premiums
volumes data from 147 countries.
This sigma study is based on the direct premium volumes of insurance companies,
regardless of whether they are privately or state owned. Premiums paid to state
social insurers are not included. Life and non-life premium volumes in 147 countries
are examined. Detailed information on the largest 88 countries in terms of total
insurance premium volume can be found in the statistical appendix. Where not
indicated, figures and chart information in this report are all sourced from Swiss Re
Economic Research & Consulting.
All quoted growth rates are in real terms
All premium growth rates quoted in the text are in real terms, ie adjusted for inflation
(measured using local consumer price indices), unless otherwise noted.
Country classifications generally follow
IMF conventions.
The designation of the economies in this sigma as “advanced” or “emerging” is
generally in keeping with the conventions of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Advanced economies include the US, Canada, Western Europe (excluding Turkey),
Israel, Oceania, Japan and the other advanced Asian economies (Hong Kong,
Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan). All other countries are classified as “emerging”
and generally correspond to the IMF’s “emerging and developing” economies.17
Data sources
The insurance data and estimates contained in the study originate primarily from
national supervisory authorities and, in some cases, from insurance associations.
Macroeconomic data was sourced from the International Financial Statistics of the
IMF, Oxford Economics, IHS Global Insights and the Wiener Institut für internationale
Wirtschaftsvergleiche.
Data revisions
Figures for past years are adjusted as new information becomes available, while the
sigma world insurance tables are updated and published18 at the beginning of each
calendar year. Since the publication of last year’s sigma, global premium volume for
2013 has been revised by –0.7% for life insurance and by –0.3% for non-life.
Definition of premium income
This report is based on information concerning the premiums written for direct
business by all registered insurers. This means:
1.Direct insurance premiums, including commissions and other charges, are
considered prior to cession to a reinsurance company.
2.Domestic insurers – regardless of their ownership – and domestic branches of
foreign insurers are regarded as domestically domiciled business units. In
contrast, business undertaken by the foreign branches of domestic insurers is not
regarded as domestic business.
3.Business that has been written in the domestic market includes premiums for
cover of domestic risks as well as those covering foreign risks, as long as they are
written by domestic insurers (cross-border business).
Health insurance is allocated to non-life
business.
Life and non-life business areas in this sigma study are categorised according to
standard EU and OECD conventions: health insurance is allocated to non-life
insurance, even if it is classified differently in the individual countries.
Density and penetration do not include
cross-border business.
Only premium income from domestic risks is used to calculate insurance penetration
and density. Cross-border business is not included. This has a significant effect in
Luxembourg, Italy, Ireland and Singapore.
Growth rates in local currency are
adjusted for inflation.
Unless otherwise stated, premium growth rates indicate changes in real terms.
These real growth rates are calculated using premiums in local currencies and
adjusted for inflation using the consumer price index for each country. The statistical
appendix also provides the nominal change in growth for each country. Regional
aggregated growth rates are calculated using the previous year’s premium volumes
and converted into US dollars at market exchange rates. The same procedure applies
17 The only exceptions are the Czech Republic, Estonia, Slovenia and Slovakia.
18The update of the tables can be found on www.swissre.com/sigma.
Methodology and data
to the economic aggregates of Table X, where the previous year’s nominal GDP
figures in US dollars are used as weights.
Figures are converted into US dollars to
facilitate international comparisons.
Using the average exchange rate for the financial year, premium volumes are converted
into US dollars to facilitate comparisons between markets and regions.19 Where no
premium data is available (indicated by “na.” for the local currency value in the
tables), the premium income in US dollars is estimated assuming a constant ratio of
insurance premiums to GDP. Regional growth rates are calculated using a weighted
average of the real growth rates of the individual countries. The weighting is based
on the relevant premiums of the previous year in US dollars.
Statistical appendix
The statistical appendix contains additional calculations and the macroeconomic
data used for currency conversions.
Acknowledgements
The sigma editorial team would like to thank the supervisory authorities, associations
and companies that helped with data compilation.
19 In Egypt, India, Iran, Japan, South Korea and Malaysia, the financial year is not the same as the calendar
year. Precise details about the differences in dates are given in the notes to the statistical appendix.
Statistical appendix
1 Excluding cross-border business
2Excludes advanced countries in South and East Asia (Hong Kong, Singapore,
South Korea, Taiwan)
3Insurance penetration (premiums as a percentage of GDP) and density
(premiums per capita) include cross-border business
4North America, Western Europe (excluding Turkey), Japan, Hong Kong,
Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan (counted as an emerging market in earlier
editions), Oceania, Israel
5Latin America, Central and Eastern Europe, South and East Asia, the Middle
East (excluding Israel) and Central Asia, Turkey, Africa
634 member countries
7The US, Canada, the UK, Germany, France, Italy, Japan
8The US, Canada, Mexico
9Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam. The four
remaining member countries – Brunei, Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar – are
not included.
10Life insurance: premiums are supplemented by estimated premiums for group
pension business, which has not been included in the statistics for some
regions since 2001. Non-life insurance includes state funds.
11Life insurance: net premiums
12Non-life insurance: gross premiums, including reinsurance premiums
13Financial year 1 April 2014–31 March 2015
14Financial year 21 March 2014–20 March 2015
15Financial year 1 July 2013–30 June 2014
16Financial year 1 July 2013–30 June 2014.
Australia: until 2012, supervisory data included premiums written by public
insurers. However, this is not available in 2013 thus contributing to the
significant decline in annual comparison.
17Inflation-adjusted premium growth rates in local currency, see Tables II, IV and
VI
18Including the remaining countries
19Effective Inflation used for calculating real growth rates are estimated by the
Institute for International Finance. These are twice the official figures.
20Retrospectively starting 2003, public insurer data has been removed from the
data because since 2013, the supervisory authority has no longer reported
these numbers. Prior 2003 financial year is from 1 July – 30 June, ie 2002
stands for data from 1 July 2002 – 30 June 2003
+ provisional
* estimated
** estimated USD value assuming constant insurance protection
Table I Premium volume by region and organisation in 2014
Premium volume
(in millions of USD)
2014
2013
Total business
America
North America
Latin America and Caribbean
Europe
Western Europe
Asia
Advanced Asian markets
Emerging Asia
Africa
Oceania
World
Advanced markets
Emerging markets
OECD
G7
Eurozone
EU
EU, 15 countries
NAFTA
ASEAN
Life business
America
North America
Europe
Western Europe
Asia
Emerging Asia
Africa
Oceania
World
Advanced markets
Emerging markets
OECD
G7
Eurozone
EU
EU, 15 countries
NAFTA
ASEAN
Non–life business
America
North America
Europe
Western Europe
Asia
Emerging Asia
Africa
Oceania
World
Advanced markets
Emerging markets
OECD
G7
Eurozone
EU
EU, 15 countries
NAFTA
ASEAN
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Change (in %)
inflation–adjusted
2014
2013
Share of world
market (in %)
2014
Premiums1
in % of GDP
2014
Premiums1 per
capita (in USD)
2014
1 594 040
1 405 816
188 225
1 697 529
1 627 670
69 859
1 317 566
802 938
465 557
49 071
68 974
100 140
4 778 248
3 939 311
838 936
1 561 461
1 382 749
178 713
1 620 133
1 544 429
75 704
1 251 992
797 054
409 830
45 108
70 294
89 752
4 593 632
3 815 278
778 354
1.1
0.7
4.1
3.5
3.7
–1.5
6.5
3.8
11.8
6.4
1.6
15.8
3.7
2.9
7.4
–1.4
–2.2
5.7
1.4
1.5
0.8
–0.5
–3.8
7.0
6.7
5.5
7.3
0.1
–1.0
5.9
33.36
29.42
3.94
35.53
34.06
1.46
27.57
16.80
9.74
1.03
1.44
2.10
100.00
82.44
17.56
6.29
7.31
3.07
6.83
7.77
1.91
5.21
11.44
3.10
1.55
2.79
5.92
6.17
8.15
2.71
1 637.8
3 968.5
304.1
1 902.0
2 995.7
217.5
307.4
3 728.3
125.6
141.8
61.3
2 600.3
662.0
3 666.3
135.6
3 850 873
2 956 743
1 103 513
1 561 196
1 517 098
1 433 058
88 684
3 740 493
2 880 448
1 049 064
1 481 273
1 435 429
1 410 107
84 738
2.7
2.3
4.7
3.7
3.8
0.7
7.2
–1.2
–1.3
2.7
1.2
1.4
–2.1
9.1
80.59
61.88
23.09
32.67
31.75
29.99
1.86
7.62
8.15
7.47
7.67
8.11
6.99
3.32
2 921.8
3 833.4
2 964.2
2 790.7
3 418.1
2 996.6
131.5
655 604
580 358
75 245
1 002 728
983 130
19 597
892 318
604 715
275 306
12 297
45 796
58 103
2 654 549
2 232 524
422 025
661 112
586 174
74 937
933 725
913 028
20 697
855 263
597 516
246 132
11 615
47 370
47 576
2 545 045
2 149 908
395 137
–1.4
–2.0
3.3
5.6
5.8
–2.1
6.1
4.5
9.9
4.2
1.6
27.5
4.3
3.8
6.9
–5.6
–6.8
4.2
2.3
2.5
–3.3
–3.9
–6.4
3.3
10.0
6.0
9.3
–1.8
–2.8
3.6
24.70
21.86
2.83
37.77
37.04
0.74
33.61
22.78
10.37
0.46
1.73
2.19
100.00
84.10
15.90
2.59
3.02
1.23
4.08
4.77
0.53
3.55
8.69
1.83
0.39
1.85
3.44
3.43
4.65
1.36
673.6
1 638.3
121.6
1 138.3
1 837.7
61.0
209.2
2 830.6
74.3
35.5
40.7
1 508.8
367.8
2 089.6
68.2
2 131 883
1 623 795
644 220
944 580
926 471
592 956
55 050
2 060 177
1 582 698
592 860
876 894
857 656
598 641
52 112
3.5
2.7
8.1
5.8
6.0
–1.9
8.3
–3.2
–3.5
5.0
2.3
2.6
–6.5
9.8
80.31
61.17
24.27
35.58
34.90
22.34
2.07
4.23
4.55
4.26
4.71
5.03
2.89
2.22
1 622.7
2 139.9
1 690.7
1 714.8
2 120.8
1 239.9
88.0
938 436
825 457
112 979
694 801
644 539
50 262
425 248
198 223
190 251
36 774
23 178
42 036
2 123 699
1 706 787
416 912
900 350
796 574
103 775
686 408
631 401
55 007
396 729
199 537
163 699
33 493
22 924
42 175
2 048 587
1 665 370
383 216
2.9
2.6
4.7
0.4
0.6
–1.2
7.5
1.7
14.6
7.2
1.8
2.6
2.9
1.8
8.0
2.0
1.4
6.8
0.2
0.1
2.5
8.2
5.2
13.2
6.7
4.4
5.0
2.7
1.4
8.6
44.19
38.87
5.32
32.72
30.35
2.37
20.02
9.33
8.96
1.73
1.09
1.98
100.00
80.37
19.63
3.70
4.29
1.84
2.74
3.00
1.37
1.67
2.76
1.27
1.16
0.94
2.49
2.74
3.51
1.35
964.2
2 330.2
182.5
763.7
1 158.0
156.5
98.2
897.8
51.3
106.3
20.6
1 091.6
294.2
1 576.7
67.4
1 718 990
1 332 948
459 293
616 616
590 627
840 102
33 635
1 680 316
1 297 750
456 204
604 379
577 774
811 466
32 626
1.7
1.9
0.1
0.5
0.5
2.5
5.4
1.5
1.5
–0.1
–0.3
–0.4
1.5
8.0
80.94
62.77
21.63
29.03
27.81
39.56
1.58
3.39
3.60
3.21
2.96
3.08
4.10
1.10
1 299.1
1 693.5
1 273.5
1 075.8
1 297.3
1 756.7
43.5
Table II Total premium volume in local currency in 2014
North America
Europe
Asia
Africa
Country
United States
Canada
Total
Brazil
Mexico
Venezuela
Argentina
Chile
Colombia
Peru
Ecuador
Panama
Uruguay
Costa Rica
Trinidad and Tobago
Guatemala
Dominican Republic
Bahamas
Jamaica
Total
10
11
19
United Kingdom
France
Germany
Italy
Netherlands
Spain
Switzerland
Ireland
Belgium
Sweden
Luxembourg
Denmark
Finland
Russia
Norway
Austria
Portugal
Poland
Turkey
Czech Republic
Greece
Liechtenstein
Malta
Hungary
Slovakia
Slovenia
Romania
Ukraine
Croatia
Bulgaria
Cyprus
Serbia
Total
Japan
PR China
South Korea
Taiwan
India
Hong Kong
Singapore
Thailand
Malaysia
Indonesia
Israel
Saudi Arabia
Iran
Philippines
Vietnam
Qatar
Pakistan
Lebanon
Kazakhstan
Bangladesh
Macao
Oman
Kuwait
Sri Lanka
Jordan
Total
South Africa
Morocco
Egypt
Nigeria
Kenya
Algeria
Angola
Namibia
Tunisia
Mauritius
Total
Oceania
Australia
New Zealand
Total
World
World
13
13
13
13
12
14
15
20
16
Currency
USD
CAD
2014
1 280 443
138 506 *
BRL
MXN
VEB
ARS
CLP
COP
PEN
USD
PAB
UYU
CRC
TTD
GTQ
DOP
BSD
JMD
201 094 *
362 663 +
142 787 *
128 744
6 225 421
19 036 170
10 154
1 703
1 343
na.
622 592
na.
6 458
33 163
na.
na.
GBP
EUR
EUR
EUR
EUR
EUR
CHF
EUR
EUR
SEK
EUR
DKK
EUR
RUB
NOK
EUR
EUR
PLN
TRY
CZK
EUR
CHF
EUR
HUF
EUR
EUR
RON
UAH
HRK
BGN
EUR
RSD
213 187
203 549
191 604
146 526
72 200
53 779
59 665
40 597
29 637
265 709
26 546
192 730
na.
987 773
157 954
17 151
14 410
54 351
25 357
157 817
3 964
3 410
na.
811 370
2 096
1 938
7 951
26 767
8 561
1 739
738
69 405
JPY
CNY
KRW
TWD
INR
HKD
SGD
THB
MYR
IDR
ILS
AED
SAR
IRR
PHP
VND
QAR
PKR
LBP
KZT
BDT
MOP
OMR
KWD
LKR
JOD
52 755 840
2 023 481
168 505 800
2 903 350
4 272 523
318 233
34 211
704 686
53 035
181 391 800
51 321
33 441
30 481
199 535 600
256 985
54 718 000
na.
209 633
2 280 550
236 411
101 994
8 747
398
287
na.
523
ZAR
MAD
EGP
NGN
KES
DZD
KZR
NAD
TND
MUR
533 230
28 574
13 760
280 972
156 821
na.
na.
na.
na.
na.
AUD
NZD
*
*
+
*
*
+
+
*
*
*
*
*
+
+
*
+
+
+
+
*
+
*
+
+
+
*
+
*
+
*
*
*
*
*
+
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
+
97 748
14 025 *
Premium volume
(in millions of local currency)
2013
2012
1 254 776
1 271 840
131 829
126 548
178 530
349 053
85 624
92 767
5 803 220
18 821 700
9 069
1 659
1 244
24 749
517 980
6 604
5 956
31 041
703
72 369
160 869
315 837
59 686
70 494
5 472 509
15 969 760
7 906
1 485
1 139
21 564
466 156
6 864
4 785
29 691
686
62 358
Change (in %)
nominal
2014
2013
2.0
–1.3
5.1
4.2
Change (in %)
inflation-adjusted
2014
2013
0.4
–2.8
3.1
3.2
0.7
–2.2
12.6
3.9
66.8
38.8
7.3
1.1
12.0
2.6
7.9
na.
20.2
na.
8.4
6.8
na.
na.
11.0
10.5
43.5
31.6
6.0
17.9
14.7
11.7
9.3
14.8
11.1
–3.8
24.5
4.5
2.5
16.1
5.9
–0.1
2.8
5.7
3.7
–1.7
8.5
–0.9
4.8
na.
14.9
na.
4.9
3.8
na.
na.
4.1
4.5
6.5
2.0
9.0
3.0
15.5
11.5
8.8
5.5
5.6
5.6
–8.6
19.3
–0.2
2.1
6.1
5.7
208 202
193 858
186 539
127 147
74 877
54 199
58 859
38 201 *
28 517
247 995
22 478
189 100
21 955
904 864
144 246
16 616
13 225 *
57 170
23 702
156 524
4 012
3 380
2 575
779 277
2 064
1 978
8 291
28 662
9 077
1 662
762
64 042
207 795
184 936
180 912
112 069
74 607
55 653
57 023
34 540 *
33 036
251 052
23 285
187 631
20 079
809 060
140 447
16 292
10 975 *
61 996
19 482
153 599
4 410
4 170
2 387
742 109
2 017
2 004
8 257
21 508
9 038
1 579
799
61 464
2.4
5.0
2.7
15.2
–3.6
–0.8
1.4
6.3
3.9
7.1
18.1
1.9
na.
9.2
9.5
3.2
9.0
–4.9
7.0
0.8
–1.2
0.9
na.
4.1
1.5
–2.0
–4.1
–6.6
–5.7
4.6
–3.1
8.4
0.2
4.8
3.1
13.5
0.4
–2.6
3.2
10.6
–13.7
–1.2
–3.5
0.8
9.3
11.8
2.7
2.0
20.5
–7.8
21.7
1.9
–9.0
–18.9
7.9
5.0
2.4
–1.3
0.4
33.3
0.4
5.3
–4.6
4.2
0.9
4.5
1.8
15.0
–4.5
–0.6
1.4
5.9
3.6
7.3
17.4
1.3
na.
1.5
7.3
1.6
9.3
–5.2
–1.7
0.3
0.1
0.9
na.
3.8
1.3
–2.7
–6.0
–15.9
–6.1
5.7
–2.9
6.3
3.5
–2.3
3.9
1.6
12.1
–2.1
–4.0
3.4
10.0
–14.6
–1.2
–5.1
0.0
7.8
4.5
0.6
0.0
20.2
–8.4
13.2
0.4
–8.2
–18.8
6.8
2.8
0.7
–3.7
–3.6
33.7
–3.0
4.2
–5.0
–1.7
1.4
49 889 120
1 722 224
159 146 500
2 708 436
3 942 174
288 642
31 275
644 492
49 189
162 132 000
49 666
29 504
25 240
165 696 400
220 271
47 788 520
na.
177 500
2 136 790
253 073
93 417 *
6 824
364
268 *
na.
492
52 050 810
1 548 793
170 579 100
2 598 831
3 584 059
253 066
27 875
570 113
45 915
144 378 900
44 556
26 275
21 174
131 096 700
163 791
41 247 660
5 519 *
145 000
1 971 254
211 513
86 674 +
5 439
330
253
87 152 *
462
5.7
17.5
5.9
7.2
8.4
10.3
9.4
9.3
7.8
11.9
3.3
13.3
20.8
20.4
16.7
14.5
na.
18.1
6.7
–6.6
9.2
28.2
9.3
6.8
na.
6.1
–4.2
11.2
–6.7
4.2
10.0
14.1
12.2
13.0
7.1
12.3
11.5
12.3
19.2
26.4
34.5
15.9
na.
22.4
8.4
19.6
7.8
25.5
10.4
6.1
na.
6.7
2.7
15.2
4.7
5.9
1.8
6.6
8.3
7.3
5.2
5.2
2.8
10.8
17.6
4.6
12.0
10.0
na.
10.2
5.4
–12.4
2.0
20.9
8.2
3.8
na.
3.1
6.5
–5.0
8.3
–7.8
3.4
0.3
9.7
9.6
10.6
4.4
5.5
9.8
11.1
15.2
–6.2
30.7
8.7
na.
13.7
2.7
13.1
0.2
18.9
9.1
3.3
na.
1.1
–0.5
445 967
26 028
10 723
258 402
108 974
106 920
87 660
8 254
1 266
20 082
7.1
6.9
12.5
9.9
20.0
na.
na.
na.
na.
na.
11.6
2.7
14.1
–1.0
19.9
12.9
na.
11.2
10.4
9.8
1.0
6.5
1.8
1.6
12.3
na.
na.
na.
na.
na.
1.6
5.5
0.8
6.7
–8.8
13.5
9.3
na.
5.3
4.0
6.1
5.5
73 430
12 874
20.4
5.0
10.6
3.7
17.5
3.8
15.8
7.9
2.4
7.3
3.7
0.1
497 681
26 734
12 233
255 750 *
130 671
120 670
na.
9 176
1 398
22 057
81 200
13 351
Table III Total premium volume in USD in 2014
North America
Ranking
1
9
Latin America and
Caribbean
Europe
Asia
Africa
Oceania
World
13
25
30
35
40
41
49
63
67
70
72
75
82
85
87
88
3
5
6
7
10
14
16
17
20
21
22
23
24
27
28
29
32
33
39
44
47
48
50
51
53
55
56
57
66
71
78
83
2
4
8
11
15
19
26
31
34
36
37
42
43
45
46
54
58
59
65
68
69
74
76
77
81
86
18
52
60
61
62
64
73
79
80
84
12
38
Country
United States
Canada
Total
Brazil
Mexico
Venezuela
Argentina
Chile
Colombia
Peru
Ecuador
Panama
Uruguay
Costa Rica
Trinidad and Tobago
Guatemala
Dominican Republic
Bahamas
Jamaica
Other countries
Total
United Kingdom
France
Germany
Italy
Netherlands
Spain
Switzerland
Ireland
Belgium
Sweden
Luxembourg
Denmark
Finland
Russia
Norway
Austria
Portugal
Poland
Turkey
Czech Republic
Greece
Liechtenstein
Malta
Hungary
Slovakia
Slovenia
Romania
Ukraine
Croatia
Bulgaria
Cyprus
Serbia
Other countries
Total
Japan
PR China
South Korea
Taiwan
India
Hong Kong
Singapore
Thailand
Malaysia
Indonesia
Israel
Saudi Arabia
Iran
Philippines
Vietnam
Qatar
Pakistan
Lebanon
Kazakhstan
Bangladesh
Macao
Oman
Kuwait
Sri Lanka
Jordan
Other countries
Total
South Africa
Morocco
Egypt
Nigeria
Kenya
Algeria
Angola
Namibia
Tunisia
Mauritius
Other countries
Total
Australia
New Zealand
Other countries
Total
World
10
11
19
13
13
13
13
12
14
15
20
16
Premium volume(in millions of USD)
2014
2013
1 280 443 **
1 254 776
125 373 *
127 973
1 405 816
1 382 749
85 444 *
82 743
27 242 +
27 358
22 665 *
14 050
15 845
16 941
10 915
11 716
9 510
10 072
3 577
3 357
1 703
1 659
1 343 **
1 244
1 197 **
1 208
1 156 **
1 036
1 087 **
1 025
835 **
758
763 **
742
724 **
703
718 **
722
3 500
3 376
188 225
178 713
351 266 *
325 675
270 520 *
257 444
254 644 +
247 725
194 735 *
168 852
95 956 *
99 437
71 473 +
71 977
65 211 +
63 492
53 954 *
50 731
39 388 *
37 871
38 735
38 086
35 280 *
29 851
34 308 *
33 668
29 625 *
29 156
25 738 +
28 421
25 082 +
24 562
22 794
22 066
19 151 *
17 562
17 235 +
18 088
11 595
12 460
7 603 +
7 998
5 268 +
5 328
3 727
3 646
3 528 **
3 419
3 488 +
3 484
2 785 *
2 741
2 574 +
2 626
2 374 *
2 491
3 586
2 249
1 494 +
1 591
1 180 +
1 128
981 +
1 012
786
752
2 802
3 205
1 697 529
1 620 133
479 762 *
498 003
328 439 +
280 119
159 515
145 867
95 622
90 977
69 889 *
65 187
41 038 +
37 213
27 000 *
24 994
21 696
20 975
15 864
15 347
15 307 *
15 560
14 344 *
13 755
9 106 *
8 034
8 128
6 731
7 458 *
6 689
5 788 **
5 190
2 582 +
2 274
2 183 **
1 994
2 074 *
1 746
1 513 *
1 417
1 319
1 664
1 315 *
1 196
1 099 **
854
1 035 *
947
1 007 *
946
850 **
773
736 *
694
2 895
2 847
1 317 566
1 251 992
49 159 *
51 604
3 400 *
3 180
1 968
1 898
1 790 *
1 626
1 784 +
1 517
1 597 **
1 520
1 142 **
1 031
931 **
950
888 **
860
766 **
718
5 549
5 388
68 974
70 294
88 075
78 386
11 634 *
10 949
430
417
100 140
89 752
4 778 248
4 593 632
**
**
**
**
**
**
**
*
*
**
**
*
**
*
**
*
Change (in %) 2014
nominal (in USD)
2.05
–2.03
1.67
3.26
–0.43
61.31
–6.47
–6.84
–5.58
6.55
2.63
7.92
–0.93
11.55
6.06
10.18
2.82
2.98
–0.57
inflation
adjusted17
0.43
3.11
0.68
5.94
–0.12
2.84
5.70
3.75
–1.66
8.51
–0.93
4.78
na.
14.91
na.
4.86
3.76
na.
na.
5.32
7.86
5.08
2.79
15.33
–3.50
–0.70
2.71
6.35
4.00
1.70
18.19
1.90
1.61
–9.44
2.12
3.30
9.05
–4.72
–6.94
–4.94
–1.13
2.22
3.19
0.13
1.59
–1.99
–4.71
–37.27
–6.10
4.55
–3.04
4.46
4.12
0.92
4.47
1.79
14.96
–4.51
–0.63
1.38
5.95
3.57
7.34
17.36
1.35
na.
1.55
7.29
1.59
9.25
–5.22
–1.72
0.32
0.11
0.90
na.
3.81
1.31
–2.70
–5.98
–15.86
–6.15
5.66
–2.86
6.25
4.78
–3.66
17.25
9.36
5.11
7.21
10.28
8.03
3.44
3.37
–1.62
4.28
13.34
20.77
11.48
11.53
13.57
9.52
18.73
6.73
–20.69
9.96
28.70
9.28
6.41
10.03
6.13
3.50
2.72
15.20
4.67
5.93
1.77
6.57
8.28
7.31
5.17
5.15
2.84
10.79
17.61
4.57
11.99
10.01
na.
10.19
5.36
–12.37
2.04
20.86
8.18
3.77
na.
3.09
5.24
–4.74
6.89
3.69
10.08
17.56
5.06
10.70
–2.05
3.27
6.69
6.50
1.01
6.46
1.75
1.63
12.27
na.
na.
na.
na.
na.
–1.88
12.36
6.26
1.65
17.46
3.77
11.57
4.02
15.78
3.70
Share of world
market 2014 (in %)
26.80
2.62
29.42
1.79
0.57
0.47
0.33
0.23
0.20
0.07
0.04
0.03
0.03
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.07
3.94
7.35
5.66
5.33
4.08
2.01
1.50
1.36
1.13
0.82
0.81
0.74
0.72
0.62
0.54
0.52
0.48
0.40
0.36
0.24
0.16
0.11
0.08
0.07
0.07
0.06
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.03
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.06
35.53
10.04
6.87
3.34
2.00
1.46
0.86
0.57
0.45
0.33
0.32
0.30
0.19
0.17
0.16
0.12
0.05
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.06
27.57
1.03
0.07
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.12
1.44
1.84
0.24
0.01
2.10
100.00
Table IV Life insurance premium volume in local currency in 2014
North America
Latin America and
Caribbean
Europe
Asia
Africa
Country
United States
Canada
Total
Brazil
Mexico
Chile
Argentina
Colombia
Peru
Venezuela
Trinidad and Tobago
Uruguay
Panama
Jamaica
Ecuador
Dominican Republic
Guatemala
Bahamas
Costa Rica
Total
10
11
19
United Kingdom
France
Italy
Germany
Ireland
Switzerland
Spain
Luxembourg
Sweden
Finland
Denmark
Belgium
Netherlands
Norway
Portugal
Austria
Poland
Czech Republic
Russia
Liechtenstein
Greece
Hungary
Turkey
Malta
Slovakia
Slovenia
Croatia
Romania
Cyprus
Bulgaria
Ukraine
Serbia
Total
Japan
PR China
South Korea
Taiwan
India
Hong Kong
Singapore
Thailand
Malaysia
Indonesia
Israel
Philippines
Vietnam
Pakistan
Bangladesh
Macao
Iran
Lebanon
Sri Lanka
Kazakhstan
Saudi Arabia
Kuwait
Oman
Jordan
Qatar
Total
South Africa
Morocco
Egypt
Namibia
Kenya
Mauritius
Nigeria
Tunisia
Algeria
Angola
Total
Oceania
Australia
New Zealand
Total
World
World
13
13
13
13
12
14
15
20
16
Currency
USD
CAD
2014
528 221 *
57 599 *
BRL
MXN
CLP
ARS
COP
PEN
VEF
TTD
UYU
PAB
JMD
USD
DOP
GTQ
BSD
CRC
105 862 *
167 701 +
3 651 067
24 358
5 727 220
4 929
4 581 *
na.
na.
312
na.
276
8 161
1 273
na.
76 621
GBP
EUR
EUR
EUR
EUR
CHF
EUR
EUR
SEK
EUR
DKK
EUR
EUR
NOK
EUR
EUR
PLN
CZK
RUB
CHF
EUR
HUF
TRY
EUR
EUR
EUR
HRK
RON
EUR
BGN
UAH
RSD
142 818
129 992
109 323
89 145
33 962
33 024
24 839
23 554
193 298
18 100
128 815
17 185
16 445
92 187
10 505
6 752
23 451
71 182
108 531
2 350
1 788
454 156
3 228
na.
1 016
535
2 638
1 527
316
289
2 160
14 896
JPY
CNY
KRW
TWD
INR
HKD
SGD
THB
MYR
IDR
ILS
PHP
AED
VND
PKR
BDT
MOP
IRR
LBP
LKR
KZT
SAR
KWD
OMR
JOD
QAR
40 860 750
1 090 169
107 296 500
2 403 400
3 380 587
285 804
19 694
431 870
34 204
120 383 600
27 525
196 225
8 081
27 327 000
126 876
74 950
6 657
19 281 670
654 991
na.
46 984
904
54
36
51
na.
ZAR
MAD
EGP
NAD
KES
MUR
NGN
TND
DZD
AOA
431 541
9 605
6 213
na.
55 525
na.
71 805
na.
na.
na.
AUD
NZD
*
+
+
*
+
+
+
*
*
*
*
*
+
+
+
+
+
*
+
+
*
+
+
*
+
*
+
*
*
*
*
+
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
+
*
+
62 318
2 202 *
Premium volume
2013
2012
533 181
568 877
54 590
52 661
94 448
159 058
3 461 492
17 758
6 787 771
4 184
2 747
2 766
7 100
280
31 175
282
7 647
1 137
156
69 625
87 767
142 811
3 269 316
14 246
4 846 674
3 676
2 050
2 513
5 684
255
22 457
255
6 983
972
152
55 542
Change (in %)
nominal
2014
2013
–0.9
–6.3
5.5
3.7
Change (in %)
2014
2013
–2.5
–7.6
3.5
2.7
–2.0
–6.8
12.1
5.4
5.5
37.2
–15.6
17.8
66.8
na.
na.
11.4
na.
–2.3
6.7
11.9
na.
10.0
7.6
11.4
5.9
24.7
40.1
13.8
34.0
10.1
24.9
9.7
38.8
10.8
9.5
17.0
2.5
25.4
5.4
1.4
2.0
4.5
–18.0
14.2
2.8
na.
na.
8.1
na.
–5.7
3.6
8.3
na.
5.2
3.3
1.3
7.3
2.8
3.3
37.2
10.6
–4.7
4.6
15.0
5.9
27.0
7.8
4.5
12.1
2.1
19.2
4.2
140 018
121 388
88 902
86 341
31 740 *
32 665
25 505
19 628
178 884
17 806
126 289
16 274
18 272
81 492
9 321 *
6 499
26 412
71 577
84 890
2 450
1 605
433 656
3 350
1 044
1 006
553
2 538
1 590
331
268
2 477
13 062
140 054
115 116
72 456
82 986
27 907 *
31 126
26 282
20 734
184 671
16 155
124 111
21 113
18 975
82 568
6 951 *
6 516
31 655
72 049
53 824
3 328
1 876
399 351
2 679
1 007
966
546
2 461
1 734
337
242
1 810
10 925
2.0
7.1
23.0
3.2
7.0
1.1
–2.6
20.0
8.1
1.7
2.0
5.6
–10.0
13.1
12.7
3.9
–11.2
–0.6
27.8
–4.1
11.4
4.7
–3.6
na.
1.0
–3.2
3.9
–4.0
–4.7
8.0
–12.8
14.0
0.0
5.4
22.7
4.0
13.7
4.9
–3.0
–5.3
–3.1
10.2
1.8
–22.9
–3.7
–1.3
34.1
–0.3
–16.6
–0.7
57.7
–26.4
–14.5
8.6
25.1
3.6
4.1
1.3
3.1
–8.3
–1.8
10.4
36.9
19.6
0.5
6.5
22.7
2.3
6.7
1.1
–2.5
19.2
8.3
0.6
1.4
5.2
–10.9
10.8
13.0
2.3
–11.5
–1.0
18.9
–4.1
12.9
4.4
–11.5
na.
0.8
–3.9
3.4
–5.9
–4.5
9.1
–21.4
11.8
5.6
–2.5
4.5
21.2
2.5
13.2
5.2
–4.3
–6.9
–3.1
8.6
1.0
–23.8
–6.1
–3.3
33.8
–2.2
–17.1
–2.1
47.4
–26.2
–13.7
6.4
16.3
2.6
2.5
–1.1
–0.3
–12.0
–2.2
9.3
37.3
12.8
2.3
38 425 940
942 514
99 794 180
2 233 166
3 142 832
257 717
17 813
379 786
31 549
109 782 400
26 625
166 710
7 031
23 267 640
104 000
69 497 *
4 964
16 011 700
624 312
na.
56 576
845
51 *
34
47
na.
41 448 240
890 806
112 270 200
2 147 752
2 872 025
224 124
15 488
335 027
29 476
101 028 700
23 909
116 366
5 959
18 396 740
80 000
65 199 +
3 737
10 248 340
568 792
37 469 *
52 438
889
48
40
44
212 *
6.3
15.7
7.5
7.6
7.6
10.9
10.6
13.7
8.4
9.7
3.4
17.7
14.9
17.4
22.0
7.8
34.1
20.4
4.9
na.
–17.0
7.0
6.3
8.0
7.3
na.
–7.3
5.8
–11.1
4.0
9.4
15.0
15.0
13.4
7.0
8.7
11.4
43.3
18.0
26.5
30.0
6.6
32.8
56.2
9.8
na.
7.9
–5.0
6.1
–16.8
8.4
na.
3.3
13.4
6.3
6.3
1.0
7.2
9.4
11.6
5.7
3.1
2.9
13.0
12.4
12.8
13.8
0.8
26.5
4.6
3.6
na.
–22.1
4.2
3.3
6.9
4.2
na.
6.1
–8.1
3.1
–12.2
3.2
–0.2
10.6
12.4
10.9
4.3
2.1
9.7
39.2
16.7
18.7
20.7
–0.9
25.9
16.0
4.0
na.
2.0
–8.2
3.3
–17.8
2.8
na.
–3.9
358 967
8 839
4 634
5 810
37 083
13 898
63 374
200
7 290
2 411
7.0
11.7
17.7
na.
26.1
na.
14.5
na.
na.
na.
12.4
–2.7
13.9
10.0
18.7
8.1
–1.0
10.4
9.5
na.
0.9
11.3
6.5
na.
18.0
na.
5.9
na.
na.
na.
1.6
6.2
–4.5
6.6
4.1
12.3
4.4
–8.8
4.1
6.0
na.
6.0
42 192
2 042
31.6
4.1
12.2
3.6
28.4
2.8
27.5
9.6
2.3
9.3
4.3
–1.8
403 310
8 599
5 280
6 388
44 015
15 027
62 723 *
221
7 979
na.
47 360
2 115
Table V Life premium volume in USD in 2014
North America
Latin America and
Caribbean
Europe
Asia
Africa
Oceania
World
Ranking
1
12
14
29
35
38
39
46
56
65
69
70
71
72
77
80
81
82
3
5
6
7
13
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
26
27
32
34
37
40
41
42
44
47
48
49
58
62
64
67
75
78
79
2
4
8
9
11
16
25
28
30
31
33
36
43
50
51
53
55
57
66
68
73
74
76
85
86
87
15
52
54
59
60
61
63
83
84
88
10
45
Country
United States
Canada
Total
Brazil
Mexico
Chile
Argentina
Colombia
Peru
Venezuela
Trinidad and Tobago
Uruguay
Panama
Jamaica
Ecuador
Dominican Republic
Guatemala
Bahamas
Costa Rica
Other countries
Total
United Kingdom
France
Italy
Germany
Ireland
Switzerland
Spain
Luxembourg
Sweden
Finland
Denmark
Belgium
Netherlands
Norway
Portugal
Austria
Poland
Czech Republic
Russia
Liechtenstein
Greece
Hungary
Turkey
Malta
Slovakia
Slovenia
Croatia
Romania
Cyprus
Bulgaria
Ukraine
Serbia
Other countries
Total
Japan
PR China
South Korea
Taiwan
India
Hong Kong
Singapore
Thailand
Malaysia
Indonesia
Israel
Philippines
Vietnam
Pakistan
Bangladesh
Macao
Iran
Lebanon
Sri Lanka
Kazakhstan
Saudi Arabia
Kuwait
Oman
Jordan
Qatar
Other countries
Total
South Africa
Morocco
Egypt
Namibia
Kenya
Mauritius
Nigeria
Tunisia
Algeria
Angola
Other countries
Total
Australia
New Zealand
Other countries
Total
World
10
11
19
13
13
13
13
12
14
15
20
16
Premium volume
2014
2013
528 221 *
533 181
52 138 *
52 993
580 358
586 174
44 980 *
43 774
12 597 +
12 467
6 401
6 989
2 998
3 243
2 861
3 632
1 736
1 549
727 *
451
455 **
429
343 **
347
312 **
280
309 **
311
276
282
188 **
183
165 **
145
161 **
156
142 **
139
594
562
75 245
74 937
235 321 *
219 020
172 761 +
161 204
145 292
118 062
118 475 +
114 662
45 136 *
42 151
36 094 +
35 237
33 012 +
33 870
31 303 +
26 066
28 179
27 472
24 055 *
23 646
22 931 *
22 485
22 839 *
21 611
21 855 *
24 265
14 639
13 876
13 962 *
12 378
8 974
8 631
7 436 +
8 356
3 429 +
3 657
2 828 +
2 666
2 568
2 643
2 376 +
2 131
1 939
1 953 +
1 476
1 761
1 430 **
1 386
1 350 *
1 335
711 +
734
460 +
445
456 *
478
419 +
440
196 +
182
181
310
169
153
461
470
1 002 728
933 725
371 588 *
383 576
176 950 +
153 300
101 572
91 467
79 156
75 013
55 299 *
51 969
36 856 +
33 226
15 543 *
14 236
13 297
12 360
10 231
9 843
10 159 *
10 536
7 693 *
7 374
4 420 **
3 928
2 200 *
1 914
1 290 +
1 107
1 255 *
1 023
966 *
890
837 **
621
721 *
646
434 *
414
366 **
332
262
372
241
225
191 *
181
95 *
88
72 *
67
65 **
62
560
493
892 318
855 263
39 785 *
41 819
1 143 *
1 023
888
819
648 **
662
632 +
511
522 **
489
457 *
399
141 **
136
106 **
101
31 +
28
1 443
1 383
45 796
47 370
56 151
45 719
1 826 *
1 734
126
123
58 103
47 576
2 654 549
2 545 045
**
**
**
**
**
**
**
*
*
**
*
**
**
*
**
*
Change (in %) 2014
nominal (in USD)
2014 inflation
adjusted17
–0.9
–1.6
–1.0
2.8
1.0
–8.4
–7.6
–21.2
12.1
61.3
6.1
–0.9
11.4
–0.6
–2.3
2.7
13.7
3.0
2.1
–2.5
3.5
–2.0
5.4
1.4
2.0
4.5
–18.0
14.2
2.8
na.
na.
8.1
na.
–5.7
3.6
8.3
na.
5.2
0.4
7.4
7.2
23.1
3.3
7.1
2.4
–2.5
20.1
2.6
1.7
2.0
5.7
–9.9
5.5
12.8
4.0
–11.0
–6.2
6.1
–2.8
11.5
0.7
–16.2
3.2
1.1
–3.2
3.4
–4.6
–4.6
8.0
–41.4
9.9
3.3
0.5
6.5
22.7
2.3
6.7
1.1
–2.5
19.2
8.3
0.6
1.4
5.2
–10.9
10.8
13.0
2.3
–11.5
–1.0
18.9
–4.1
12.9
4.4
–11.5
na.
0.8
–3.9
3.4
–5.9
–4.5
9.1
–21.4
11.8
7.4
–3.1
15.4
11.0
5.5
6.4
10.9
9.2
7.6
3.9
–3.6
4.3
12.5
14.9
16.5
22.6
8.6
34.7
11.5
4.9
10.0
–29.5
7.0
5.9
8.0
7.3
4.3
5.6
3.3
13.4
6.3
6.3
1.0
7.2
9.4
11.6
5.7
3.1
2.9
13.0
12.4
12.8
13.8
0.8
26.5
4.6
3.6
na.
–22.1
4.2
3.3
6.9
4.2
na.
4.3
–4.9
11.7
8.5
–2.1
23.6
6.7
14.7
3.3
5.1
10.7
6.1
0.9
11.3
6.5
na.
18.0
na.
5.9
na.
na.
na.
–3.3
22.8
5.3
1.6
28.4
2.8
22.1
4.3
27.5
4.3
Share of total
business
2014 (in %)
41.3
41.6
41.3
52.6
46.2
58.6
18.9
30.1
48.5
3.2
41.9
28.7
23.2
43.1
16.2
24.6
19.7
22.2
12.3
17.0
40.0
67.0
63.9
74.6
46.5
83.7
55.3
46.2
88.7
72.7
81.2
66.8
58.0
22.8
58.4
72.9
39.4
43.1
45.1
11.0
68.9
45.1
56.0
12.7
40.5
48.5
27.6
30.8
19.2
42.7
16.6
8.1
21.5
16.5
59.1
77.5
53.9
63.7
82.8
79.1
89.8
57.6
61.3
64.5
66.4
53.6
76.4
24.2
49.9
60.5
73.5
76.1
9.7
28.7
43.0
19.9
3.0
19.0
9.1
9.7
3.0
19.4
67.7
80.9
33.6
45.2
69.6
35.4
68.1
25.6
15.8
6.6
2.8
26.0
66.4
63.8
15.7
29.3
58.0
55.6
Share of
world market
2014 (in %)
19.90
1.96
21.86
1.69
0.47
0.24
0.11
0.11
0.07
0.03
0.02
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.02
2.83
8.86
6.51
5.47
4.46
1.70
1.36
1.24
1.18
1.06
0.91
0.86
0.86
0.82
0.55
0.53
0.34
0.28
0.13
0.11
0.10
0.09
0.07
0.06
0.05
0.05
0.03
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.02
37.77
14.00
6.67
3.83
2.98
2.08
1.39
0.59
0.50
0.39
0.38
0.29
0.17
0.08
0.05
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.03
0.02
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.02
33.61
1.50
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.05
1.73
2.12
0.07
0.00
2.19
100.00
Table VI Non–life insurance premium volume in local currency in 2014
North America
Latin America and
Caribbean
Europe
Asia
Africa
Country
United States
Canada
Total
Brazil
Venezuela
Mexico
Argentina
Colombia
Chile
Peru
Ecuador
Panama
Costa Rica
Uruguay
Guatemala
Trinidad and Tobago
Dominican Republic
Bahamas
Jamaica
Total
10
11
19
Germany
United Kingdom
France
Netherlands
Italy
Spain
Switzerland
Russia
Belgium
Austria
Denmark
Sweden
Norway
Turkey
Poland
Ireland
Finland
Portugal
Czech Republic
Luxembourg
Greece
Malta
Ukraine
Romania
Slovenia
Hungary
Slovakia
Liechtenstein
Croatia
Bulgaria
Serbia
Cyprus
Total
PR China
Japan
South Korea
Taiwan
India
Singapore
Thailand
Saudi Arabia
Iran
Israel
Malaysia
Indonesia
Hong Kong
Qatar
Philippines
Vietnam
Lebanon
Kazakhstan
Oman
Pakistan
Kuwait
Jordan
Sri Lanka
Bangladesh
Macao
Total
South Africa
Morocco
Algeria
Nigeria
Kenya
Angola
Egypt
Tunisia
Namibia
Mauritius
Total
Oceania
Australia
New Zealand
Total
World
World
13
13
13
12
14
13
15
20
16
Currency
USD
CAD
2014
752 222
80 907 +
BRL
VEF
MXN
ARS
COP
CLP
PEN
USD
PAB
CRC
UYU
GTQ
TTD
DOP
BSD
JMD
95 233 *
138 206 *
194 962 +
104 385
13 308 950
2 574 354
5 225
1 427
1 032
545 972
na.
5 185
na.
25 002
na.
na.
EUR
GBP
EUR
EUR
EUR
EUR
CHF
RUB
EUR
EUR
DKK
SEK
NOK
TRY
PLN
EUR
EUR
EUR
CZK
EUR
EUR
EUR
UAH
RON
EUR
HUF
EUR
CHF
HRK
BGN
RSD
EUR
102 459
70 368
73 557
55 756
37 203
28 940
26 640
879 242
12 452
10 399
63 916
72 411
65 766
22 129
30 900
6 634
na.
3 904
86 636
2 993
2 177
na.
24 608
6 424
1 402
357 214
1 080
1 060
5 924
1 450
54 509
423
CNY
JPY
KRW
TWD
INR
SGD
THB
SAR
AED
IRR
ILS
MYR
IDR
HKD
QAR
PHP
VND
LBP
KZT
OMR
PKR
KWD
JOD
LKR
BDT
MOP
933 312
11 895 090
61 209 280
499 950
891 935
14 517
272 816
29 577
25 360
180 253 900
23 796
18 832
61 008 200
32 429
7 710
60 760
27 391 000
1 625 559
189 427
361
82 757
232
472
na.
27 045
2 090
+
*
*
*
*
+
+
+
*
*
+
+
*
*
+
*
+
*
+
+
*
+
+
+
+
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
+
*
+
*
*
*
*
*
*
Premium volume
2013
2012
721 595
702 963
77 239
73 886
84 083
82 876
189 995
75 009
12 033 930
2 341 728
4 885
1 377
965
448 355
17 648
4 819
3 837
23 394
547
41 194
100 197
68 184
72 470
56 605
38 245
28 694
26 193
819 973
12 244
10 117
62 811
69 111
62 754
20 352
30 759
6 461 *
4 149
3 904 *
84 947
2 850
2 408
1 531
26 185
6 701
1 425
345 621
1 059
930
6 538
1 395
50 980
431
779 710
11 463 170
59 352 320
475 270
799 342
13 462
264 706
24 395
22 473
149 684 700
23 041
17 640
52 349 660
30 925
7 030
53 561
24 520 880
1 512 478
196 497
330
73 500
217 *
445
na.
23 920 *
1 861
ZAR
MAD
DZD
NGN
KES
AOA
EGP
TND
NAD
MUR
101 689
18 969 *
na.
209 167 *
101 297
na.
7 547
na.
na.
na.
94 372
18 135
112 691
193 027 *
86 656
na.
6 954
1 176
2 788
7 029
AUD
NZD
35 430
11 823
33 840
11 236
Change (in %)
nominal
2014
2013
4.2
2.7
4.7
4.5
Change (in %)
2014
2013
2.6
1.2
2.8
3.6
2.6
1.4
73 102
57 636
173 026
56 248
11 123 090
2 203 193
4 230
1 230
884
410 614
15 880
3 813
4 351
22 708
534
39 901
13.3
66.8
2.6
39.2
10.6
9.9
7.0
3.6
6.9
21.8
na.
7.6
na.
6.9
na.
na.
15.0
43.8
9.8
33.4
8.2
6.3
15.5
11.9
9.2
9.2
11.1
26.4
–11.8
3.0
2.5
3.2
6.5
2.8
–1.4
6.0
7.5
6.3
3.7
0.0
3.8
16.4
na.
4.1
na.
3.8
na.
na.
4.7
8.3
2.3
5.8
10.5
6.0
3.2
12.2
9.0
5.4
3.8
2.3
21.1
–16.2
–1.7
2.1
–5.6
6.8
97 926
67 741
69 820
55 632
39 613
29 371
25 897
755 236
11 923
9 776
63 520
66 381
57 879
16 803
30 341
6 632
3 924
4 024
81 550
2 551
2 534
1 380
19 699
6 523
1 458
342 758
1 051
842
6 577
1 337
50 539
462
2.3
3.2
1.5
–1.5
–2.7
0.9
1.7
7.2
1.7
2.8
1.8
4.8
4.8
8.7
0.5
2.7
na.
0.0
2.0
5.0
–9.6
na.
–6.0
–4.1
–1.6
3.4
2.0
14.0
–9.4
3.9
6.9
–1.9
2.3
0.7
3.8
1.7
–3.5
–2.3
1.1
8.6
2.7
3.5
–1.1
4.1
8.4
21.1
1.4
–2.6
5.7
–3.0
4.2
11.7
–5.0
11.0
32.9
2.7
–2.3
0.8
0.8
10.5
–0.6
4.3
0.9
–6.7
1.3
1.7
1.0
–2.5
–3.0
1.0
1.7
–0.3
1.4
1.2
1.2
5.0
2.7
–0.1
0.2
2.4
na.
0.3
1.5
4.3
–8.4
na.
–15.3
–6.0
–2.3
3.0
1.8
14.0
–9.9
5.0
4.8
–1.6
0.4
0.8
–1.9
2.9
–0.7
–4.6
–3.7
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.5
–1.9
4.2
6.2
12.7
0.7
–3.1
4.2
–3.3
2.6
9.9
–4.1
9.9
33.3
–1.4
–4.7
–1.2
–0.8
10.7
–4.0
3.3
–4.8
–7.0
0.2
657 987
10 602 580
58 308 870
451 079
712 034
12 387
235 086
20 285
20 316
120 848 400
20 647
16 439
43 350 250
28 942
5 307
47 425
22 850 920
1 402 462
159 075
289
65 000
205
418
49 683 *
21 475 +
1 702
19.7
3.8
3.1
5.2
11.6
7.8
3.1
21.2
12.8
20.4
3.3
6.8
16.5
4.9
9.7
13.4
11.7
7.5
–3.6
9.4
12.6
6.9
6.0
na.
13.1
12.3
18.5
8.1
1.8
5.4
12.3
8.7
12.6
20.3
10.6
23.9
11.6
7.3
20.8
6.9
32.5
12.9
7.3
7.8
23.5
14.3
13.1
6.1
6.5
na.
11.4
9.3
17.4
0.8
1.9
3.9
4.8
6.7
1.1
18.1
10.3
4.6
2.8
4.1
9.5
1.4
6.5
8.9
7.3
6.1
–9.6
8.3
5.0
3.9
3.0
na.
5.7
5.9
7.5
15.5
7.2
0.6
4.5
2.4
6.2
10.2
16.2
9.4
–8.1
9.9
4.6
13.5
2.8
28.4
9.7
0.7
2.2
16.8
12.9
5.0
3.3
1.0
na.
3.6
3.6
8.2
87 000
17 189
99 630
195 029
71 891
85 249
6 089
1 066
2 444
6 183
7.8
4.6
na.
8.4
16.9
na.
8.5
na.
na.
na.
8.5
5.5
13.1
–1.0
20.5
na.
14.2
10.3
14.1
13.7
1.6
4.2
na.
0.2
9.3
na.
–1.8
na.
na.
na.
1.8
2.6
3.6
9.5
–8.8
14.0
na.
6.8
4.0
8.0
9.8
4.4
31 238
10 832
4.7
5.2
8.3
3.7
2.2
3.9
2.6
5.7
2.5
5.0
2.9
2.7
*
*
Table VII Non–life premium volume in USD in 2014
North America
Latin America and
Caribbean
Europe
Asia
Africa
Oceania
World
Ranking
1
8
11
16
19
22
37
42
53
57
68
69
72
76
78
80
81
84
3
4
6
7
10
12
14
15
17
21
24
25
26
27
29
31
39
40
44
45
46
49
50
51
52
54
56
61
67
70
79
82
2
5
9
18
20
23
32
33
34
35
36
38
41
43
48
58
60
65
66
71
73
74
77
83
85
87
30
47
55
59
62
63
64
75
86
88
13
28
Country
United States
Canada
Total
Brazil
Venezuela
Mexico
Argentina
Colombia
Chile
Peru
Ecuador
Panama
Costa Rica
Uruguay
Guatemala
Trinidad and Tobago
Dominican Republic
Bahamas
Jamaica
Other countries
Total
Germany
United Kingdom
France
Netherlands
Italy
Spain
Switzerland
Russia
Belgium
Austria
Denmark
Sweden
Norway
Turkey
Poland
Ireland
Finland
Portugal
Czech Republic
Luxembourg
Greece
Malta
Ukraine
Romania
Slovenia
Hungary
Slovakia
Liechtenstein
Croatia
Bulgaria
Serbia
Cyprus
Other countries
Total
PR China
Japan
South Korea
Taiwan
India
Singapore
Thailand
Saudi Arabia
Iran
Israel
Malaysia
Indonesia
Hong Kong
Qatar
Philippines
Vietnam
Lebanon
Kazakhstan
Oman
Pakistan
Kuwait
Jordan
Sri Lanka
Bangladesh
Macao
Other countries
Total
South Africa
Morocco
Algeria
Nigeria
Kenya
Angola
Egypt
Tunisia
Namibia
Mauritius
Other countries
Total
Australia
New Zealand
Other countries
Total
World
10
11
19
13
13
13
12
14
13
15
20
16
Premium volume
2014
2013
752 222 **
721 595
73 235 +
74 980
825 457
796 574
40 464 *
38 970
21 937 *
13 599
14 645 +
14 892
12 847
13 698
6 649
6 439
4 513
4 728
1 841
1 808
1 427
1 377
1 032 **
965
1 014 **
897
854 **
862
671 **
613
632 **
596
576 **
560
563 **
547
409 **
411
2 907
2 814
112 979
103 775
136 170 +
133 063
115 945 *
106 655
97 759 *
96 241
74 100 *
75 171
49 443 *
50 790
38 462 +
38 106
29 117 +
28 255
22 910 +
25 755
16 549 *
16 260
13 820
13 435
11 378 *
11 183
10 556
10 614
10 443 +
10 685
10 119
10 699
9 798 +
9 732
8 817 *
8 580
5 569
5 510
5 189 *
5 184
4 174 +
4 341
3 977 *
3 785
2 893 +
3 197
2 098 **
2 033
2 068
3 276
1 918 *
2 014
1 863 +
1 892
1 536 +
1 545
1 435 *
1 406
1 159
1 003
1 034 +
1 146
983 +
947
617
599
562 +
572
2 341
2 735
694 801
686 408
151 490 +
126 820
108 174 *
114 428
57 943
54 400
16 466
15 964
14 590 *
13 218
11 458 *
10 759
8 400
8 615
7 887
6 505
6 905 *
6 119
6 737 *
6 043
6 651 *
6 381
5 633
5 504
5 148 *
5 024
4 182 +
3 987
2 118 *
1 931
1 369 **
1 262
1 293 +
1 167
1 078 *
1 003
1 057
1 292
940 *
859
819 *
723
816 *
766
664 *
627
485 **
441
349 *
306
263 **
233
2 335
2 353
425 248
396 729
9 375
9 785
2 257 *
2 158
1 492 **
1 420
1 332 *
1 227
1 152
1 006
1 110 **
1 003
1 079
1 079
748 **
724
283 **
289
244 **
229
4 105
4 005
23 178
22 924
31 924
32 667
9 808
9 215
304
293
42 036
42 175
2 123 699
2 048 587
**
**
**
**
**
**
**
*
*
**
*
**
*
**
*
Change (in %) 2014
nominal (in USD)
2014 inflation
adjusted17
4.2
–2.3
3.6
3.8
61.3
–1.7
–6.2
3.2
–4.5
1.8
3.6
6.9
13.0
–0.9
9.3
6.1
2.9
3.0
–0.6
2.6
2.8
2.6
6.5
2.8
–1.4
6.0
7.5
6.3
3.7
0.0
3.8
16.4
na.
4.1
na.
3.8
na.
na.
8.9
2.3
8.7
1.6
–1.4
–2.7
0.9
3.0
–11.0
1.8
2.9
1.7
–0.5
–2.3
–5.4
0.7
2.8
1.1
0.1
–3.8
5.1
–9.5
3.2
–36.9
–4.7
–1.5
–0.6
2.1
15.5
–9.8
3.9
3.1
–1.8
4.7
1.3
1.7
1.0
–2.5
–3.0
1.0
1.7
–0.3
1.4
1.2
1.2
5.0
2.7
–0.1
0.2
2.4
na.
0.3
1.5
4.3
–8.4
na.
–15.3
–6.0
–2.3
3.0
1.8
14.0
–9.9
5.0
4.8
–1.6
1.2
19.5
–5.5
6.5
3.1
10.4
6.5
–2.5
21.2
12.8
11.5
4.2
2.3
2.5
4.9
9.7
8.4
10.8
7.5
–18.2
9.4
13.2
6.5
6.0
10.0
13.9
12.8
0.4
17.4
0.8
1.9
3.9
4.8
6.7
1.1
18.1
10.3
4.6
2.8
4.1
9.5
1.4
6.5
8.9
7.3
6.1
–9.6
8.3
5.0
3.9
3.0
na.
5.7
5.9
7.2
–4.2
4.6
5.1
8.6
14.5
10.7
0.0
3.3
–2.1
6.7
7.5
1.6
4.2
na.
0.2
9.3
na.
–1.8
na.
na.
na.
1.1
–2.3
6.4
1.8
2.2
3.9
–0.3
3.7
2.6
2.9
Share of total
business
2014 (in %)
58.7
58.4
58.7
47.4
96.8
53.8
81.1
69.9
41.4
51.5
83.8
76.8
87.7
71.3
80.3
58.1
75.4
77.8
56.9
83.0
60.0
53.5
33.0
36.1
77.2
25.4
53.8
44.7
89.0
42.0
60.6
33.2
27.3
41.6
87.3
56.9
16.3
18.8
27.1
54.9
11.3
54.9
59.5
91.9
80.8
72.4
44.0
51.5
31.1
69.2
83.4
78.5
57.3
83.5
40.9
46.1
22.5
36.3
17.2
20.9
42.4
38.7
97.0
75.8
90.3
46.4
35.5
33.6
10.2
97.0
23.6
50.1
71.3
80.1
90.9
39.5
81.0
90.3
57.0
26.5
23.9
80.6
32.3
19.1
66.4
93.4
74.4
64.6
97.2
54.8
84.2
30.4
31.9
74.0
33.6
36.2
84.3
70.7
42.0
44.4
Share of
world market
2014 (in %)
35.42
3.45
38.87
1.91
1.03
0.69
0.60
0.31
0.21
0.09
0.07
0.05
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.02
0.14
5.32
6.41
5.46
4.60
3.49
2.33
1.81
1.37
1.08
0.78
0.65
0.54
0.50
0.49
0.48
0.46
0.42
0.26
0.24
0.20
0.19
0.14
0.10
0.10
0.09
0.09
0.07
0.07
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.03
0.03
0.11
32.72
7.13
5.09
2.73
0.78
0.69
0.54
0.40
0.37
0.33
0.32
0.31
0.27
0.24
0.20
0.10
0.06
0.06
0.05
0.05
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.02
0.01
0.11
20.02
0.44
0.11
0.07
0.06
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.04
0.01
0.01
0.19
1.09
1.50
0.46
0.01
1.98
100.00
Table VIII Insurance density: premiums1 per capita in USD in 2014
North America
Europe
Asia
Africa
Oceania
World
Ranking
10
17
Country
United States
Canada
Total
25
35
36
39
44
46
49
50
56
58
59
60
65
67
73
77
Bahamas
Trinidad and Tobago
Venezuela
Chile
Brazil
Argentina
Uruguay
Panama
Jamaica
Costa Rica
Mexico
Colombia
Peru
Ecuador
Dominican Republic
Guatemala
Total
1
2
3
4
6
7
8
11
12
13
18
20
21
22
27
28
29
30
33
37
41
42
43
47
48
61
62
63
64
66
79
88
Switzerland
Luxembourg
Denmark
Netherlands
Finland
United Kingdom
Norway
Sweden
Ireland
France
Belgium
Italy
Germany
Austria
Portugal
Spain
Slovenia
Cyprus
Malta
Czech Republic
Slovakia
Greece
Poland
Hungary
Croatia
Russia
Bulgaria
Turkey
Romania
Serbia
Ukraine
Liechtenstein
Total
5
9
14
15
19
24
26
31
32
40
51
52
53
54
55
57
69
70
72
74
75
76
81
83
85
87
Hong Kong
Taiwan
Japan
Singapore
South Korea
Macao
Israel
Qatar
Malaysia
Thailand
Lebanon
Kuwait
Saudi Arabia
Oman
PR China
Jordan
Iran
Kazakhstan
Indonesia
Philippines
India
Sri Lanka
Vietnam
Pakistan
Bangladesh
Total
34
38
45
68
71
78
80
82
84
86
South Africa
Mauritius
Namibia
Morocco
Tunisia
Angola
Algeria
Kenya
Egypt
Nigeria
Total
16
23
Australia
New Zealand
Total
World
10
11
Total business
4 017 **
3 532 *
3 969
1 894
809
735
613
422
379
350
342
256
234
220
194
116
107
73
53
304
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
7 934
6 070
5 795
5 689
5 420
4 823
4 579
4 003
3 944
3 902
3 297
3 078
3 054
2 681
1 821
1 532
1 246
1 128
953
721
514
478
447
353
352
181
164
153
119
111
50
**
**
*
*
**
**
**
**
+
**
**
+
*
*
*
*
*
+
*
*
*
*
+
*
+
+
+
**
+
*
+
+
+
+
+
+
*
1 902
13
1
13
12
13
14
13
15
3
Life business
1 657 *
1 469 *
1 638
420
339
24
360
222
72
100
79
110
29
102
58
56
17
18
10
122
4 391
3 697
4 073
1 296
4 401
3 638
2 863
2 912
3 058
2 552
2 016
2 332
1 437
1 055
1 330
708
344
482
604
325
249
216
193
197
108
20
27
19
23
24
4
**
**
*
*
**
**
**
**
+
**
**
+
+
*
*
*
*
*
+
*
+
*
+
+
+
**
+
*
+
+
+
+
+
+
*
1 138
5 647
4 072
3 778
3 759
3 163
1 915
1 834
979
974
524
323
308
291
277
266
235
99
95
79
60
58
55
40
28
11
8
307
+
925
613
396
102
80
52
40
39
24
10
61
*
**
**
*
**
**
**
+
*
*
**
*
**
*
*
*
*
+
*
*
*
**
*
**
+
*
*
*
3 736
2 557 *
2 600
662
Non-life business
2 360 **
2 063 +
2 330
1 474
470
711
254
200
307
250
263
146
205
118
136
60
89
55
42
183
3 542
2 372
1 722
4 393
1 019
1 185
1 716
1 091
885
1 350
1 281
746
1 617
1 625
491
825
902
646
349
396
265
262
254
155
243
161
137
133
96
87
46
**
**
*
*
**
**
**
**
+
**
**
+
*
*
*
*
+
*
*
*
*
+
*
+
+
+
**
+
*
+
+
+
+
+
+
*
764
5 071
3 371
2 926
2 840
2 014
1 457
984
29
235
338
198
88
55
8
24
127
10
9
16
40
44
44
17
14
7
6
209
+
748
418
276
34
13
1
3
14
11
3
41
*
**
**
*
**
+
**
+
*
*
**
*
**
*
*
*
*
+
*
*
*
**
*
**
+
*
*
*
2 382
401 *
1 509
368
575
701
852
919
1 149
457
850
950
739
186
125
220
235
269
242
109
89
86
64
20
14
11
23
14
4
2
98
176
196
120
67
67
50
37
25
13
7
21
+
*
*
**
*
*
*
*
*
*
+
*
*
*
**
*
**
+
*
*
**
**
*
**
**
**
*
1 354
2 155
1 092
294
Table IX Insurance penetration: permiums1 in % of GDP in 2014
North America
Europe
Asia
Africa
Oceania
World
Ranking
16
18
Country
United States
Canada
Total
13
30
35
36
39
40
47
48
52
54
57
58
66
69
71
75
Bahamas
Jamaica
Trinidad and Tobago
Chile
Brazil
Venezuela
Panama
Argentina
Colombia
Costa Rica
Uruguay
Mexico
Peru
Ecuador
Guatemala
Dominican Republic
Total
5
6
8
9
10
11
12
14
15
19
20
22
27
28
29
31
34
37
38
41
46
50
51
53
55
59
63
67
70
73
76
88
Netherlands
Finland
United Kingdom
Denmark
Switzerland
France
Italy
Portugal
Ireland
Belgium
Sweden
Germany
Luxembourg
Austria
Spain
Slovenia
Norway
Cyprus
Malta
Czech Republic
Poland
Slovakia
Croatia
Hungary
Greece
Bulgaria
Serbia
Ukraine
Turkey
Russia
Romania
Liechtenstein
Total
1
2
4
7
21
26
32
33
42
43
44
56
60
61
62
64
68
72
74
77
78
79
80
84
85
86
Taiwan
Hong Kong
South Korea
Japan
Singapore
Thailand
Malaysia
Israel
India
Lebanon
PR China
Jordan
Philippines
Iran
Macao
Indonesia
Vietnam
Oman
Sri Lanka
Saudi Arabia
Qatar
Pakistan
Bangladesh
Kazakhstan
Kuwait
Total
3
17
23
45
49
65
81
82
83
87
South Africa
Namibia
Mauritius
Morocco
Kenya
Tunisia
Angola
Algeria
Egypt
Nigeria
Total
24
25
Australia
New Zealand
Total
World
10
11
Total business
7.3 **
7.0 *
7.3
8.4
5.1
4.4
4.2
3.9
3.6
3.0
3.0
2.5
2.3
2.2
2.1
1.8
1.7
1.4
1.2
3.1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
13
13
1
13
13
12
14
15
3
11.0
10.9
10.6
9.6
9.2
9.1
8.6
8.2
7.5
7.0
6.8
6.5
5.3
5.2
5.1
5.0
4.7
4.2
3.9
3.5
3.1
2.6
2.6
2.5
2.2
2.1
1.9
1.8
1.4
1.4
1.2
**
**
**
*
*
**
**
**
+
**
**
*
*
*
*
+
*
*
*
*
*
+
*
+
+
+
+
**
+
+
*
+
+
+
+
+
*
Life business
3.0 *
2.9 *
3.0
1.9
2.2
1.9
2.5
2.1
0.1
0.7
0.6
0.8
0.3
0.6
1.0
0.9
0.3
0.3
0.3
1.2
2.5
8.9
8.0
6.7
5.1
5.9
6.5
6.0
5.8
4.3
5.0
3.1
3.2
2.1
2.3
1.4
2.9
1.8
2.5
1.6
1.3
1.3
0.8
1.4
1.0
0.4
0.4
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
6.8
4.1
18.9
14.2
11.3
10.8
6.7
5.8
4.8
4.7
3.3
3.3
3.2
2.2
2.1
2.0
1.9
1.9
1.7
1.4
1.3
1.1
1.1
1.0
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.6
5.2
15.6
12.7
7.2
8.4
5.0
3.6
3.1
2.5
2.6
1.0
1.7
0.5
0.2
1.6
0.2
1.4
1.1
0.7
0.1
0.5
0.0
0.0
0.5
0.5
0.1
0.1
3.5
14.0
7.2
6.0
3.2
2.9
1.8
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.3
2.8
+
*
*
*
*
*
+
*
*
**
*
**
*
+
*
**
**
*
*
*
*
**
**
*
+
**
**
**
*
11.4
5.0
4.1
1.1
1.0
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.1
1.9
**
**
**
*
*
**
**
**
+
**
**
*
*
*
*
+
+
*
*
*
+
+
+
+
+
**
+
+
*
+
+
+
+
+
*
Non-life business
4.3 **
4.1 +
4.3
6.5
2.9
2.6
1.8
1.9
3.5
2.3
2.4
1.7
2.0
1.5
1.1
0.9
1.4
1.1
0.9
1.8
8.5
2.1
2.6
2.8
4.1
3.1
2.1
2.2
1.7
2.7
1.9
3.4
2.1
3.2
2.7
3.6
1.8
2.4
1.4
1.9
1.8
1.4
1.8
1.1
1.2
1.8
1.5
1.6
1.3
1.2
1.0
**
**
**
*
*
**
**
**
+
**
**
*
*
*
+
*
*
*
*
*
+
*
+
+
+
+
**
+
+
*
+
+
+
+
+
*
2.7
+
*
*
*
*
*
+
*
*
**
*
**
*
+
*
**
**
*
*
*
*
**
**
*
+
**
+
**
*
3.3
1.4
4.1
2.4
1.6
2.2
1.7
2.2
0.7
2.4
1.5
1.7
1.9
0.5
1.7
0.4
0.6
0.7
1.2
0.7
1.0
1.0
0.3
0.2
0.5
0.5
1.7
2.7
2.2
1.9
2.1
1.9
1.5
0.8
0.7
0.4
0.2
0.9
6.0
6.0 *
5.9
3.8
0.9 *
3.4
2.2
5.0
2.5
6.2
3.4
2.7
+
*
*
*
*
*
+
*
*
**
*
**
*
+
*
**
*
*
*
*
**
**
*
**
**
**
*
Table X Macroeconomic indicators in 2014
North America
Latin America and
Caribbean
Ranking
by GDP
1
11
Country
United States
Canada
Total
7
15
21
26
32
43
52
63
66
70
73
75
78
81
83
87
Brazil
Mexico
Venezuela
Argentina
Colombia
Chile
Peru
Ecuador
Dominican Republic
Guatemala
Uruguay
Costa Rica
Panama
Trinidad and Tobago
Jamaica
Bahamas
Total
Europe
4
5
6
8
10
14
17
18
20
23
24
25
28
29
35
42
45
46
47
49
53
59
60
62
67
71
72
74
79
82
86
88
Germany
United Kingdom
France
Italy
Russia
Spain
Netherlands
Turkey
Switzerland
Sweden
Poland
Belgium
Norway
Austria
Denmark
Finland
Ireland
Greece
Portugal
Czech Republic
Romania
Hungary
Ukraine
Slovakia
Luxembourg
Croatia
Bulgaria
Slovenia
Serbia
Cyprus
Malta
Liechtenstein
Total
Asia
2
3
9
13
16
19
27
30
31
33
36
37
38
39
41
44
50
51
54
56
57
64
65
69
77
80
PR China
Japan
India
South Korea
Indonesia
Saudi Arabia
Taiwan
Iran
Thailand
Malaysia
Singapore
Israel
Hong Kong
Philippines
Pakistan
Qatar
Kazakhstan
Bangladesh
Vietnam
Kuwait
Oman
Sri Lanka
Macao
Lebanon
Jordan
Total
Africa
22
34
40
48
58
61
68
76
84
85
Nigeria
South Africa
Egypt
Algeria
Angola
Morocco
Kenya
Tunisia
Namibia
Mauritius
Total
Oceania
12
55
Australia
New Zealand
Total
World
Population
(millions)
2014
318.7
35.5
354.2
World
Gross domestic product
Real change
USD bn
(in %)
2014
2014
2013
17 430
2.4
2.2
1 789
2.5
2.0
19 219
2.4
2.2
Inflation rate (in %) local currency per USD
2014
2013
2014
2013
1.6
1.5
1.00
1.00
1.9
1.0
1.10
1.03
Exchange rate
Change
(in %)
0.00
7.24
18
202.2
124.0
30.9
41.8
48.9
17.8
30.8
16.0
10.5
15.9
3.4
4.9
3.9
1.3
2.8
0.4
619.0
2 180
1 281
625
528
380
258
203
102
63
59
55
50
44
25
14
9
6 134
0.0
2.1
–3.7
–0.4
4.6
1.6
2.4
3.3
4.5
4.0
3.4
3.5
6.8
2.3
0.9
1.4
0.9
2.5
1.7
1.3
2.9
4.7
4.2
5.7
4.6
4.1
3.6
4.4
3.6
8.4
1.6
0.2
0.7
2.7
6.3
4.0
62.2
31.3
2.8
3.4
3.2
3.6
3.0
3.4
8.9
4.6
3.0
5.4
9.2
1.4
6.2
3.8
40.6
20.7
2.1
3.0
2.9
2.7
4.8
4.4
8.6
5.2
3.6
5.2
9.3
0.4
2.35
13.31
6.30
8.13
2 001.78
570.37
2.84
1.00
43.44
7.73
23.28
538.50
1.00
6.47
111.05
1.00
2.16
12.76
6.09
5.48
1 868.79
495.31
2.70
1.00
41.81
7.86
20.48
499.77
1.00
6.44
100.24
1.00
9.08
4.34
3.38
48.38
7.12
15.15
5.08
0.00
3.91
–1.59
13.66
7.75
0.00
0.36
10.79
0.00
18
82.3
64.7
66.1
60.0
142.4
46.6
16.9
75.9
8.2
9.7
38.6
11.3
5.1
8.5
5.6
5.5
4.6
11.0
10.4
10.5
19.9
9.9
44.9
5.4
0.5
4.3
7.2
2.1
7.1
0.9
0.4
0.0
815.9
3 865
2 946
2 848
2 149
1 884
1 407
869
800
708
567
559
533
498
437
341
271
244
237
232
216
200
139
128
105
63
57
56
51
42
23
10
6
22 738
1.6
2.6
0.4
–0.4
0.5
1.4
0.8
2.7
2.0
2.3
3.3
1.0
2.2
0.4
0.9
–0.1
4.8
0.7
0.9
2.5
2.2
3.0
–8.0
2.4
2.8
–0.8
1.9
1.8
–1.0
–2.9
3.4
2.8
1.2
0.2
1.7
0.4
–1.7
1.7
–1.2
–0.7
4.1
1.9
1.3
1.0
0.3
0.8
0.1
–0.5
–1.3
0.2
–4.0
–1.3
–1.2
1.9
0.5
–0.5
1.0
2.0
–1.0
0.3
2.9
1.4
–5.4
2.5
1.5
0.4
0.9
1.5
0.5
0.2
7.5
–0.2
1.0
8.9
0.0
–0.2
0.3
0.3
2.1
1.6
0.6
1.1
0.3
–1.3
–0.3
0.5
2.0
0.3
11.0
0.2
0.6
0.5
–1.0
0.7
2.0
–0.3
0.8
0.0
1.5
2.6
0.9
1.2
7.0
1.4
2.5
7.5
–0.2
0.0
0.7
1.1
2.1
2.0
0.8
1.5
0.5
–0.9
0.3
1.5
4.2
2.1
–0.3
1.6
1.7
3.5
1.0
2.5
6.0
0.4
1.0
–0.2
0.75
0.61
0.75
0.75
38.38
0.75
0.75
2.19
0.91
6.86
3.15
0.75
6.30
0.75
5.62
0.75
0.75
0.75
0.75
20.76
3.35
232.60
11.90
0.75
0.75
5.73
1.47
0.75
88.35
0.75
0.75
0.91
0.75
0.64
0.75
0.75
31.84
0.75
0.75
1.90
0.93
6.51
3.16
0.75
5.87
0.75
5.62
0.75
0.75
0.75
0.75
19.57
3.33
223.70
7.99
0.75
0.75
5.70
1.47
0.75
85.16
0.75
0.75
0.93
–0.08
–5.07
–0.08
–0.08
20.54
–0.08
–0.08
14.96
–1.30
5.35
–0.22
–0.08
7.23
–0.08
0.02
–0.08
–0.08
–0.08
–0.08
6.06
0.64
3.98
48.88
–0.08
–0.08
0.45
0.05
–0.03
3.75
–0.08
–0.08
–1.30
18
1 394.9
127.0
1 269.3
50.4
253.2
29.4
23.5
9.4
78.5
67.3
30.2
5.5
7.8
7.3
100.3
185.1
2.2
16.6
158.6
92.5
3.5
3.9
21.4
0.6
4.9
7.4
4 265.7
10 114
4 440
2 089
1 416
890
752
506
411
387
374
328
308
304
290
285
251
212
205
198
187
179
82
74
59
46
36
25 142
7.4
–0.1
7.4
3.4
5.0
3.6
3.4
2.6
2.0
0.7
6.0
2.9
2.9
2.3
6.1
4.1
5.8
4.3
6.1
6.0
1.5
3.2
7.8
9.9
1.5
3.0
4.7
7.7
1.6
6.9
3.0
5.6
2.7
2.1
5.2
–1.9
2.9
4.7
4.4
3.4
2.9
7.2
3.7
6.3
6.0
6.1
5.4
1.5
3.9
7.2
11.8
0.9
2.8
4.8
2.0
2.9
6.5
1.2
6.4
2.7
1.2
2.3
15.2
1.9
2.5
1.0
0.5
3.5
4.2
7.2
3.0
6.6
7.0
4.1
2.9
1.0
3.3
6.1
1.3
3.0
2.6
0.9
9.7
1.2
6.4
3.5
0.8
1.1
34.7
2.2
2.6
2.4
1.5
4.0
2.9
7.7
3.2
5.8
7.5
6.6
2.7
1.2
6.9
5.5
5.6
5.5
6.16
109.96
61.13
1 056.37
11 850.00
3.75
30.36
3.67
26 755.83
32.48
3.34
1.27
3.58
7.75
44.40
101.10
3.64
179.19
77.55
21 189.25
0.28
0.38
130.57
7.96
1 507.50
0.71
6.15
100.18
60.47
1 091.04
10 419.68
3.75
29.77
3.67
24 770.02
30.73
3.21
1.25
3.61
7.76
42.44
101.63
3.64
152.13
78.10
21 016.54
0.28
0.38
129.07
7.99
1 507.50
0.71
0.21
9.77
1.09
–3.18
13.73
0.00
1.99
0.00
8.02
5.71
4.31
1.26
–0.91
–0.03
4.61
–0.53
0.00
17.79
–0.71
0.82
0.34
0.00
1.16
–0.41
0.00
0.00
18
178.8
53.2
83.4
39.9
22.2
33.5
45.6
11.1
2.3
1.2
1 124.5
586
351
286
226
145
107
61
49
13
13
2 470
6.2
1.5
2.2
3.5
4.5
2.3
4.8
2.3
4.5
3.6
3.3
5.4
2.2
2.1
2.8
4.4
4.4
5.7
2.3
5.1
3.1
3.3
8.1
6.1
10.5
2.7
7.2
0.4
6.9
5.4
5.3
3.2
8.5
5.8
6.9
3.3
8.8
1.9
5.7
6.1
5.6
3.5
157.00
10.85
6.99
80.30
97.65
8.41
87.92
1.70
10.85
30.80
157.31
9.64
6.45
79.37
96.52
8.41
86.12
1.62
9.66
30.70
–0.20
12.47
8.48
1.17
1.17
–0.01
2.09
4.45
12.34
0.32
18
23.6
4.6
38.5
1 468
195
1 691
2.7
3.0
2.8
2.1
2.5
2.1
2.5
1.2
2.4
1.2
1.11
1.21
1.04
1.22
7.14
–1.14
7 217.9
77 394
2.7
2.6
19
Recent sigma publications
2015
No 1
No 2
No 3
No 4
Keeping healthy in emerging markets: insurance can help
Natural catastrophes and man-made disasters in 2014:
convective and winter storms generate most losses
M & A in insurance: start of a new wave?
World insurance in 2014: back to life
2014
2013
No 1Partnering for food security in emerging markets
No 2 Natural catastrophes and man-made disasters in 2012:
A year of extreme weather events in the US
No 3 World insurance 2012: Progressing on the long and winding road to recovery
No 4 Navigating recent developments in marine and airline insurance
No 5 Urbanisation in emerging markets: boon and bane for insurers
No 6 Life insurance: focusing on the consumer
2012
No 1Understanding profitability in life insurance
No 2 Natural catastrophes and man-made disasters in 2011:
historic losses surface from record earthquakes and floods
No 3 World insurance in 2011: non-life ready for take-off
No 4 Facing the interest rate challenge
No 5 Insuring ever-evolving commercial risks
No 6 Insurance accounting reform: a glass half empty or half full?
2011
No 1Natural catastrophes and man-made disasters in 2010:
a year of devastating and costly events
No 2 World insurance in 2010
No 3 State involvement in insurance markets
No 4 Product innovation in non-life insurance markets: where little “i” meets big “I”
No 5Insurance in emerging markets: growth drivers and profitability
2010
catastrophes claim fewer victims, insured losses fall
No 2 World insurance in 2009: premiums dipped, but industry capital improved
No 3 Regulatory issues in insurance
No 4 The impact of inflation on insurers
No 5 Insurance investment in a challenging global environment
No 6 Microinsurance – risk protection for 4 billion people
2009
2008
large losses from floods and hail; Haiyan hits the Philippines
No 2 Digital distribution in insurance: a quiet revolution
No 3 World insurance in 2013: steering towards recovery
No 4 Liability claims trends: emerging risks and rebounding economic drivers
No 5 How will we care? Finding sustainable long-term care solutions for an ageing world
No 1 Scenario analysis in insurance
North America and Asia suffer heavy losses
No 3World insurance in 2008: life premiums fall in the industrialised countries – strong
growth in the emerging economies
No 4 The role of indices in transferring insurance risks to the capital markets
No 5 Commercial liability: a challenge for businesses and their insurers
No 1
No 2
No 3
No 4
No 5
Natural catastrophes and man-made disasters in 2007: high losses in Europe
Non-life claims reserving: improving on a strategic challenge
World insurance in 2007: emerging markets leading the way
Innovative ways of financing retirement
Insurance in the emerging markets: overview and prospects for Islamic insurance
Published by:
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Economic Research & Consulting
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Explore and visualize sigma data on natural catastrophes and
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© 2015 Swiss Re. All rights reserved.
The editorial deadline for this study was 11 May 2015.
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World insurance in 2014: back to life

Transcription

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