The cars we want tomorrow 2015

The cars
we want tomorrow 2015
Views, wishes and visions
© Daimler AG
2
Index
© Audi AG
1
2
3
4
Foreword. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
Car buying. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
Individual mobility. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
What people want from the car
of tomorrow. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
5 A lternative fuel systems
6 Autonomous driving
7 Mobility costs
8 Summary
12
. . . . . . . . . . 18
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
and outlook. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
9
Methodology. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
30
3
1
Foreword
© Volkswagen AG
Dear Readers,
The industry first talked about the “reinvention of
the car” a few years ago. This is an allusion to the
radical changes that are already underway.
Although the car has continually evolved over the
last century or more, with numerous innovations
along the way – be it in terms of safety, comfort
or engines – the basic principle remains the same:
the driver controls and steers a vehicle powered
by petrol or diesel.
However, it is in this regard that there have been
many changes in recent years: petroleum is by
no means the only fuel these days, with the options ranging from gas and mains electricity
to hydrogen. And we certainly won‘t be waiting
another hundred years before the driver can leave
the steering entirely to technology.
Already, cars can independently decide when an
emergency stop is necessary or automatically
follow the vehicle in front in a traffic jam.
The technology is advancing particularly fast right
now; developments that are hailed as a revolution
today will be old news by tomorrow.
And it‘s not just the car itself that is in the throes
of constant change; our entire approach to
mobility is currently being turned on its head.
Which begs the question: What exactly will cars
be capable of and, indeed, expected to offer
25 years from now – and will we even want to
own a car or will we turn instead to entirely new
mobility concepts?
4
This study by AutoScout24, which is the fourth of
its kind, tries to get to the bottom of this question.
The participants in the survey, from seven European countries, gave painstaking thought as to
how they envision cars and mobility a quarter of a
century from now.
But their responses also reveal that their expectations are still strongly influenced by the familiar
or what the industry is currently propagating.
It‘s hard to develop true visions of the future.
By 2040 there will probably be a whole host of
developments that are simply unimaginable in
the present day. In 1990, what car driver would
have dared to speculate that in 2015, low-cost
navigation devices would replace road maps in
may cars? Sometimes, the rapid spread of a useful
innovation happens by chance. Electronic Stability
Programmes (ESP) would undoubtedly have taken
many more years to make the leap from luxury
limousines to ordinary cars were it not for the fact
that the Mercedes-Benz A Class tipped over when
changing lanes at high speeds.
However, the lack of far-fetched imaginings has
nothing to do with “technology apathy” – quite
the opposite. The respondents are far more open
to developments such as autonomous driving,
electromobility and car sharing than they were
a few years ago.
© Honda
Many of the wishes and requirements cited by the
respondents with regard to the car of tomorrow
are already on the horizon, and we will encounter
them in mass-produced vehicles in less than twenty
years‘ time.
Others can be construed as a clear call to the car
industry, such as the unequivocal demand among
Europeans for more user-friendly cars.
As the largest online car market Europe-wide,
AutoScout24 believes it has a duty, through this
study, to make all who are involved in the industry
aware of these calls and make a major contribution
to the evolution of our mobility.
I hope you find the study interesting and inspiring.
Michael Gebhardt
Editor-in-Chief, AutoScout24
Michael Gebhardt is Editor-in-Chief and, as an
automotive expert at AutoScout24, is a point of
contact for all car-related matters.
The past, present and, of course, the future of
the car industry and our mobility are combined in
his daily work. He regularly finishes in the top ten
at classic car rallies, is in the know about all the
latest developments in the car industry and attends
the major automotive trade shows and industry
meetings to discuss new trends and developments.
5
2
Car buying
© Audi AG
Every relationship between driver and vehicle
starts with a purchase. These days, prospective
buyers often research the market online, as a rule
before visiting a traditional car dealer for advice,
to obtain price lists and brochures, and take a test
drive. Finally, they will configure and order their
ideal car from the dealer.
Increasingly, and often exclusively, the search for
a used car is conducted on the Internet; this is far
more convenient than traipsing around dealer forecourts and, what‘s more, at the click of a mouse
the available used cars throughout the country and
even from providers abroad can be explored on the
screen. However, buyers still prefer to make the
ultimate purchase in situ. But what form will the
buying process take in the future?
Internet versus car dealer
A total of 57.3 per cent of the Europeans surveyed
are of the opinion that, in 25 years, cars both new
and used will be purchased via an online platform.
That said, the respondents would expect such
a platform to offer the option of obtaining advice
from automotive experts, by video chat for
instance. For the people interviewed, in-depth
advice is particularly important when buying used
vehicles; for many of them, this would remove the
concerns of buying from private providers.
A slightly smaller percentage (56.3 per cent of respondents) believe the conventional car dealer will
not become obsolete. However, the sales process
should be backed up by online offerings.
The respondents would welcome websites customised specifically to the prospective buyer which
– alongside conventional advice – also provide
information about new technologies, safety aspects
and so on.
6
Furthermore, more than half (55.3 per cent) could
envisage their ideal car being presented in dealers‘
showrooms in the form of a hologram or projected
image in the future. Customers expect that this
would give a more accurate representation of
colour, wheels or other features. Men in particular
(58.3 per cent) are open to such ideas, compared
with 52.5 per cent of women.
As open as Europeans are to buying or at least
researching on the Internet, they are nonetheless
satisfied with the current situation. 54.1 per cent
could envisage only conducting the buying process
through a car dealer in the future, as they do
now. Only around a third of the respondents
(35.9 per cent) could conceive of ordering a car in
a dealer‘s virtual showroom or even merely using
a configurator.
And fewer still (29.5 per cent) could envisage
visiting an individual advisor who, for a fee,
accompanies them throughout the buying process
and makes the selection with them.
This idea is particularly unpopular in rural areas
(40.5 per cent) and in towns with a population of
less than 20,000 (38.6 per cent); unsurprisingly,
respondents with high incomes (33.8 per cent) are
most receptive to the idea.
The respondents felt it was even less important for
the car dealerships of the future to be event locations where they meet friends and hold parties.
Just 22.3 per cent of Europeans think this is a good
idea. Approval is highest among 18–29-year-olds
at 26.6 per cent but even in this age group,
45.1 per cent reject the idea of car dealerships
as event locations. Nevertheless, 30 per cent of
families with children can see the benefits of this
concept.
Car-buying in the future
57.3%
56.3%
“I would like to use an online platform on
which independent vehicle experts rate the
cars, particularly used cars.”
“As well as car sales, car dealers should
also use interactive information media to
provide me with better access to details
that interest me personally.”
55.3%
54.1%
“As well as real cars, the car dealer of the
future should also offer technical tools –
holograms/projections – to enable me to
assess my ideal vehicle in every colour
combination, equipment level, etc.”
“In the future, I wouldn’t want to forego
a personal advisor at a dealership.”
39.3%
35.9%
“I can envisage configuring and ordering
my car on the Internet and getting it
delivered to my door.”
29.5%
“A virtual car dealer is sufficient for
me instead of a physical dealership:
I use the Internet to find interesting
vehicles which a vendor then brings to
me to discuss further and take for a test
drive.”
“I would prefer to forego a conventional
car dealer and instead use an independent
buying advisor who ascertains my needs,
recommends suitable vehicles and handles
the purchase. They would receive a
consultancy fee for this service.”
22.3%
“The car dealership of the future should
be an ‘event location.‘”
16.4%
“I don‘t want to buy or own a car in the
future, so these questions are not relevant
to me.”
“I completely agree” and “I somewhat agree”
7
Distinct loyalty to dealers
It is particularly striking that many of the respondents can envisage cars being sold on the Internet
but would personally prefer to use a traditional
dealer.
For example, Spain – 61.1 per cent of Spaniards
are very attached to the traditional concept yet
63.3 per cent of them (ranking 2nd behind the
Italians) feel that car dealers should offer holograms or similarly interactive extras.
As many as 72.1 per cent of Spaniards consider
that a website tailored to the buyer is desirable,
compared with just 48.3 per cent of Germans.
The Austrians demonstrate the greatest loyalty to
dealerships (64.4 per cent) yet almost two thirds
of them could envisage online car buying as an
option in the future.
© Volkswagen AG
“The future without the Internet is inconceivable! Europeans are open to
online car buying and even expect additional offerings such as special
websites, but at the same time they don‘t want to lose the traditional
car dealer. To stay in the race, however, dealers have to adapt. In future,
many customers will not only expect to see selected vehicles on display in
the showroom, but will also want interactive presentations of the range
and, ultimately, their personal ideal vehicle.
This is a trend that the industry has latched onto. Individualisation options such as colourful keys, motif badges and a whole host of different
colours, fabrics or wheels are increasingly offered.”
8
Michael Gebhardt
3
Individual mobility
© Daimler AG
Mobility, one of the driving forces of modern life,
long ago become a burden for many people.
Where traffic was once free-flowing even at peak
times, nowadays it grinds to a halt; where parking spaces used to be easy to come by, nowadays
spaces can only be found at the kerbside after a
lengthy search; and where every accident on the
motorway throws drivers‘ and passengers‘ schedules out of the window.
A car is a household item
Nonetheless, for the majority of the population,
individual mobility is hard to envisage without
owning a car. Some 86 per cent of respondents
expect that, even in 25 years‘ time, the majority
of cars will belong to the people travelling in them.
This figure is two percentage points lower than last
year but 61.4 per cent of all respondents still also
assume that there will be a vehicle for all walks
of life and purposes: Among 30–39-year-olds,
as many as 66.2 per cent take this view, the
highest figure in the age rankings.
Individual mobility in the future
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100 %
61.4% “I would like to own a vehicle which meets as many
of my requirements as possible.”
24.6% “I would like to own a vehicle which, above all,
meets my main requirements very well.“
9.1% “I don't want to own my own car.”
4.8% No response
“I completely agree” and “I somewhat agree”
9
© Toyota
This shows that owning a vehicle that, although not
in constant use, is always available is regarded as
an essential part of the household, particularly for
families raising children.
Overall, however, a growing number of people
no longer wish to acquire a multipurpose vehicle
because they feel it makes more sense to match
the size, power and features of their own car to
their everyday mobility needs.
This group believes that, for special trips such as
transporting furniture or longer journeys, a suitable vehicle can be hired or other means of transport could be used, such as the train or bicycle.
A total of 23.1 per cent advocated this option in
2012. One year later, the figure had risen to
24 per cent; now, 24.6 per cent take the view that
a privately owned car does not have to be an
all-rounder. This change of attitude should give
manufacturers of mid-size estate cars and
SUVs – synonymous with the versatility previously
so beloved of car users – pause for thought.
Now, nearly half (47.3 per cent) of respondents are
prepared to view their own car as just one link in
a complex mobility chain.
However, they expect to be able to easily switch
to other means of transport such as a hire car,
bicycle or train, and pay for the booked mobility
package using a smartphone for instance. This
emerging development sits well with respondents
who state that they no longer wish to purchase
a multipurpose car in the future.
There has also been a rise in the percentage
of respondents who are assuming that, in
25 years, there will no longer be a vehicle licensed
in their name. A total of 9.1 per cent, which is
two percentage points more than in 2012, are
open to new solutions; for example, they are
willing to book mobility packages and make use
of the growing pool of car sharing and hire car
providers. In Germany (12.6 per cent) and Austria
(10.8 per cent), this percentage has now – albeit
only just – reached double digits.
“Car ownership is still considered desirable, but the requirements are
changing. More and more users can envisage purchasing a model that
satisfies their everyday needs, rather than a multipurpose vehicle.
They prefer to meet special needs by using one of the many car sharing
schemes, a hire car or other forms of transport.
Manufacturers such as Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Citroën and Peugeot, who
offer these kinds of mobility packages in large cities, have certainly
expanded their offering in the right direction.”
10
Michael Gebhardt
Young drivers aged between 18 and 29 years
are the least likely to rule out the possibility of
car sharing; one in three respondents are willing
to car share (28.3 per cent).
If that remains the case, this form of vehicle use
will become more prevalent in the future.
However, the age of 30 still marks a turning point.
The willingness to make the best possible use of
available transport space declines significantly
from this age and remains uniformly low.
The car as a protector of privacy
More than half of Europeans (54 per cent) still
stress that the privacy afforded them by a car is
important to them – be it their own or a hire car.
They reject the idea of sharing this protected
space with strangers, i.e. taking other people
as passengers or lending their own car to third
parties. The Austrians, Germans and Italians are
most resistant to this form of car sharing; in these
countries, six in ten respondents expressed their
aversion to it.
The French are considerably more relaxed in this
respect; just 36 per cent reject the idea of filling
free seats with people who are not part of their
family or circle of acquaintances.
Large cities also have the greatest number of car
owners who would consider lending out their vehicle if they don‘t need it themselves, while they
are at work for instance or away from home,
provided their insurance covers the additional risk.
According to the survey, 31.5 per cent of big-city
dwellers have no problem with this. In municipalities with fewer than 5,000 inhabitants, the
percentage drops to 24.4 per cent; overall
28.8 per cent of the study participants would
consider this option.
However, in return for payment, 24.7 per cent of
those interviewed could envisage taking somebody with them in a hire car who is going to the
same destination, thereby reducing their own
costs – although respondents are more favourable
towards this in large cities than in smaller communities where the demand for car sharing is in fact
greater because of the often poor public transport
connections.
Individual mobility in the future
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100 %
54.0% “To protect my privacy, I would not want to take strangers with me
or allow people I don‘t know to use my vehicle.”
47.3% “I will buy a mobility solution in the future: I will have a car at my disposal
as a rule, but I will be able to use other means of transport.”
28.8% “If I‘m not using my vehicle, I will allow it to be hired by other people.”
24.6% “In the future, I don‘t want to own a car. I‘d rather hire one when necessary.”
“I completely agree” and “I somewhat agree”
“Big cities are significantly more open to new forms of mobility, which is
no surprise; after all, it is in big cities that you find the most diverse and
always accessible options – from hire bicycles to car sharing private cars.
Nonetheless, many people still greatly value their privacy, whether in
their own vehicle or a hire car. This is certainly true of the surveyed countries of Western and southern Europe. From experience, however, Scandinavians are significantly more willing to take strangers in their own car;
Hitch-hiking is a common mode of transport there.”
Michael Gebhardt
11
4
What people want from
the car of tomorrow
© Volkswagen AG
What people want from their cars is constantly
changing and different people have very different
needs; one wants to get from A to B as quickly
as possible, while another needs plenty of boot
space. For others, having the most environmentally
friendly fuel system is what matters.
and another 17.2 per cent largely agree with this;
therefore, more than 95 per cent of Europeans rate
safety aspects as particularly important. In fact,
the desire for safety is even greater. In the space of
a year, this figure has increased by 2.6 percentage
points.
Safety first
That said, as in previous years there is a consensus throughout Europe – at least with regard to
top spot on the list of priorities: 78.2 per cent of
respondents believe that, even in 25 years’ time,
safety will still be paramount, with no ifs and buts,
Costs are in second place, as they were last year:
mobility has to remain affordable in the future
– in the latest study, even more respondents
(90.5 per cent) agree with this statement than
one year ago.
What Europeans expect from the car of tomorrow
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100 %
Total
95.4%
Highest-possible
degree of safety
28.9
90.5%
Affordable mobility
37.3
89.9%
Comfort
88.1%
Environmental
compatibility
81.4%
Everyday practicality
76.1%
Driving enjoyment
33.4%
Reflection of social
status
78.2
61.6
52.6
57.0
41.7
11.0
“Completely agree”
12
31.1
39.7
36.6
39.5
22.4
“Somewhat agree”
17.2
What Europeans expect from the car of tomorrow
Europe
Austria
Belgium
France
Germany
Italy
The Netherlands
Spain
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
Highest-possible degree of safety
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
4
Affordable mobility
3
4
3
3
3
3
3
2
Comfort
4
3
4
4
4
4
4
3
Environmental compatibility
5
5
6
5
5
5
6
5
Everyday practicality
6
6
5
6
6
6
5
6
Driving enjoyment
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
Reflection of social status
The cost factor ranks second in all countries except
Spain where, following a sharp rise in the previous
year, admittedly due to the economic crisis, it has
dropped to 4th place – albeit only marginally behind the comfort factor and environmental impact.
For Europe as a whole, these two values follow behind safety and costs with 89.9 and 88.1 per cent,
respectively. Only the Austrians attach slightly
more importance to protecting the environment
than to their own comfort.
Everyday versatility and driving enjoyment rank
5th and 6th in Europe as a whole. With a total of
81.4 per cent, a car’s practicality is considered
important by significantly more respondents than
driving enjoyment (76.1 per cent).
The Dutch and Belgians are an exception to this
– they attach greater importance to driving enjoyment, and correspondingly less value to practicality. It is conspicuous that, overall, the older the
respondent, the greater the value they attach to
a practical car: Among 18–29-year-olds, practicality matters to just 77.5 per cent, whereas more than
84 per cent of drivers aged over 50 are interested
in high utility value.
© Volkswagen AG
“Your first car is the most important in your life. Almost half of respondents aged 18 to 29 believe their car will have a high status value in the
future, too. However, this must not be at the expense of safety; this ranks
top in all age groups and across all national borders. This should be an
incentive for manufacturers to invest even more money in safety research.
With cruise control, lane-keeping assistance systems, automatic emergency braking functions and other assistance systems that they have
devised in recent years, they have already made great strides towards
the vision of accident-free driving.”
Michael Gebhardt
13
Hazard recognition and congestion avoidance
The desire for safety is also very apparent from the
rankings of functions which the respondents felt a
car must offer in 25 years: 84.4 per cent expect their
car to automatically recognise hazards and actively
intervene to avoid an accident.
This could be done by braking interventions, for
instance, or steering movements – two assistance
systems that are already available in some vehicles.
There is also a great deal of interest in car-to-car
communication which, with a rate of agreement of
76.2 per cent, comes 3rd on the list.
The hope is that networking cars will also improve
safety, for example when a broken-down vehicle beyond a bend warns the traffic behind it. A year ago,
only 72.4 per cent rated this an important feature.
As was the case last year, Europe is united on the
issue of social status.
Just 33.4 per cent of respondents agree with the
statement that a car should also represent their
social status in the future, i.e. make a statement.
Compared with the previous study, this figure has
in fact fallen by 3.3 percentage points. This aspect
also ranks bottom in the individual countries.
There are, however, clear differences between age
groups in this regard, across all the countries:
43.3 per cent of 18 to 29-year-olds very firmly
believe that their car will still be a status symbol
25 years from now, whilst just 22 per cent of 60 to
65-year-olds concur with this statement.
It should be added, however, that the importance
of this among the youngest group surveyed has
declined compared with the 2013/2014 survey,
but has increased among the oldest group.
And there’s another interesting detail: those who
regard the car as a status symbol in the future also
place greater emphasis on the aspect of driving
enjoyment (89.3 per cent) than the group of respondents who dismiss the notion of the car as
a reflection of status (69.5 per cent).
Functions that the car of tomorrow must offer
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100 %
Total
84.4%
Automatic hazard
recognition
80.0%
Congestion avoidance
76.2%
Car-to-car
communication
66.3%
Autonomous parking
space search
51.3%
Fast Internet access
31.4
48.0%
Wide range of entertainment
29.3
47.5%
Private digital assistant
45.6%
Autonomous pick-up
and delivery
33.2%
Driver‘s licence no longer
required
31.2%
Mobile office
50.9
33.5
39.5
40.5
39.2
37.0
31.1
22.3
29.0
16.6
18.2
19.5
15.9
10.6
26.1
17.3
20.6
“I completely agree”
14
35.2
“I somewhat agree”
Just 31.2 per cent, however, would like their car to
be a mobile office; this figure is unchanged from
last year.
Between the two safety aspects, with a rate of
agreement of 80 per cent of respondents, is the
desire to avoid congestion.
In 25 years, the car should be able to choose the
route so intelligently that it doesn’t run into any
congestion. This view has also gained ground
among Europeans, with an increase of just under
three percentage points. Almost exactly two thirds
of all respondents (66.3 per cent) would also like
the car not only to take them to their destination
without running into congestion, but also to help
them find a parking space by, for instance, guiding
them straight to a free parking space.
Demand for fast in-car Internet has also risen – by
around two-and-a-half percentage points compared with 2013/2014; a total of 51.3 per cent of
respondents expressed this wish. Surprisingly, the
strongest proponents are not 18–29-year-olds but
30–49-year-olds. The good news: it certainly won’t
take another 25 years before cars are networked
with each other and with the outside world, because
some small cars already have reasonably fast Internet access.
Nevertheless, almost half of all respondents
(45.6 per cent) expect their car to offer significantly
more than what is currently possible and permitted
25 years from now. They want it to autonomously
perform pick-up and delivery services and, for
example, collect the kids from school. The idea that,
in response to the appropriate command, the car
would independently take to the road and safely
bring the children home appeals to lots of people.
This is consistent with the general attitude towards
autonomous driving, as around half of all Europeans
would have no objection to being driven around
their area by their own car. Whether there really
is enough confidence in the technology remains
to be seen ten to twenty years from now, when
self-driving cars will actually be in dealers’ showrooms.
How the different countries voted: entertainment features
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100 %
Total
25.4
35.5
60.9%
Spain
52.4 %
Italy
50.7 %
France
40.5 %
Belgium
25.9
39.0 %
Austria
27.4
39.0 %
Germany
36.7 %
The Netherlands
20.1
32.3
15.7
12.2
13.1
11.6
9.9
35.0
28.3
26.8
“I completely agree”
“I somewhat agree”
“Hazard recognition, congestion avoidance and fast Internet – many of the
things that people expect from the car in 25 years‘ time are already a reality.
Manufacturers have been responding to the desire for entertainment for a
long time – what remains to be seen is whether technology will be built into
the car in the future or will simply be incorporated with the aid of smartphones and other communication systems, for instance. This would, as a rule,
be more economical and would make it easier to update.”
Michael Gebhardt
15
The range of entertainment functions would seem
to be more important than a self-driving car:
48 per cent of respondents feel that boredom
during journeys is something to be avoided,
the percentage being higher among men
(53.2 per cent) than women (43.1 per cent).
TV, computer games, the option of surfing the
Internet and the use of social media are cited
as ways to make journeys more interesting for
passengers. With rates of agreement of 50 to
60 per cent, this feature is rated significantly more
highly by the Mediterranean countries involved
– Spain, Italy and France – than in Belgium, Austria, Germany and the Netherlands, where just over
40 per cent were in favour. This is particularly
surprising for the Dutch, who are after all a nation
of technology lovers who routinely enjoy playing
high-tech games.
A total of 68.8 per cent also want a single control
panel via which all functions can be accessed.
If manufacturers take account of this preference,
the age of lots of keys, buttons and switches may
finally be over, to be replaced by touchscreens,
voice or gesture control. Tesla is an example – in
their Model S electric car, the Americans rely on
a single, large input display on the centre console.
A total of 68.6 per cent of respondents, however,
would like a 3D sound system to acoustically warn
them of hazards – provided the warning tone emanates from the same direction as the hazard itself,
so that driver immediately knows from which side a
pedestrian may imminently walk in front of the car
or an ambulance is approaching and is better able
to respond. The same percentage of respondents
want the car to graphically represent their current
driving style, the hope being that this information
(about consumption, acceleration behaviour or
braking interventions) will improve their driving
style. Such systems are already becoming more
common. In the field of electric cars and particularly economical fuel systems, manufacturers are
using a fun training programme that causes butterflies, etc. to appear to trees to grow as a means of
encouraging people to drive more economically.
Demand for simpler operating concepts
What steering and control features do people
expect of the car in 25 years’ time? Around three
quarters of all respondents (73.7 per cent) would
simply like relevant information to be displayed;
this may be a reaction to the fact that, nowadays,
many cars bombard their drivers with myriad
notifications, reports and warnings.
A total of 65.7 per cent – more men than women
– would also like information to be projected onto
the windscreen in the future; a technology that
is already in use today and is known as head-up
display.
What people want from the car of tomorrow
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100 %
Total
31.3
42.4
Only relevant information should
be displayed
28.6
40.2
68.8%
Everything will be controlled by
a central operating unit
28.7
39.9
68.6%
Intelligent 3D warning sound system
41.0
68.0%
Information on current driving
behaviour
65.7%
Relevant information projected onto
the front windscreen
58.3%
Cross-vehicle user profile
27.0
28.2
24.5
“I completely agree”
16
73.7%
37.5
33.8
“I somewhat agree”
© Robert Bosch GmbH
The desire for a cross-vehicle user profile is
expressed less frequently, but nonetheless by
58.3 per cent of respondents. This could store
personal data such as sitting position, climate
control setting or favourite radio station for
retrieval online in a hire car, for instance.
Incidentally, this is another development that is
in the pipeline; a few manufacturers are already
starting to create such profiles and the next step
will be the ability to load them in more than one
vehicle.
© Continental AG
“One thing is clear: Europeans are weary of the many switches, buttons
and keys in their cars and would like a pared-down control panel. And
they only want to be given important information, ideally in the form
of a head-up display. The selective information display is not pie in the
sky. Years ago, Saabs were fitted with a button that switched off all the
notices that were not required. If one of the suppressed items of information did merit the driver‘s attention – e.g. notification that the fuel
is running low – it was automatically re-displayed. It‘s a pity that this
function has faded into obscurity in the intervening years!”
Michael Gebhardt
17
5
Alternative fuel systems
© Volkswagen AG
Cars with combustion engines fuelled exclusively
by petrol or diesel are losing their hold and will be
very insignificant in 25 years. The car drivers surveyed are in unison on this point. Only 6.3 per cent
believe that these two fuel types will still dominate
the market a quarter of a century from now.
They also regard biofuel as an option that will
become obsolete. Together with liquid and natural
gas, it accounts for a share of just 10.7 per cent of
the fuels cited.
Drive technology in 25 years
0
10
20
30
40
50
26.7% Electric engine
24.0% Hybrid engine
18.2% No idea
14.1% Hydrogen
7.8% Biofuel
6.3% Petrol, diesel
1.6% Liquid gas (LPG)
1.3% Natural gas (CNG)
“I completely agree” and “I somewhat agree”
Electric and hybrid engines are thought to have
the best prospects – not least because of the
assumption that it will be necessary to reduce
dependence on fossil fuels. A total of 26.7 and
24 per cent of respondents, respectively, vote for
them.Hydrogen as a fuel, i.e. fuel cell technology,
is cited by 14.1 per cent. There is, however, no
other question that attracts as many “I don’t know”
responses; 18.2 per cent chose this response to
indicate that they have not opinion on this issue.
18
60 %
And the 50-kilometre limit is more unappealing
than ever; in 2012, 1.3 per cent of respondents
felt it was adequate.
The range has to be right
For the forecasts to become a reality, however,
electric cars would have to make great strides
in terms of their range: over 70 per cent expect
a minimum of 500 kilometres, with almost half
of them – i.e. 34.8 per cent of all respondents –
expecting as much as 800 kilometres or more.
Of the remaining 30 per cent, the majority
(19.6 per cent) would like to be able to travel
250 kilometres on a single battery charge. A total
of 5.7 per cent consider 100 kilometres to be
sufficient and just 0.9 per cent deem 50 kilometres
acceptable. A total of 3.6 per cent of Europeans
would never buy a car with an alternative fuel system.
The analysis of individual countries reveals that
the Spanish in particular believe that e-mobility
will take over; more than a third (37.4 per cent)
expects this engine technology to be dominant on
the roads in 2040. This is astonishing given that
electric cars have the biggest hurdles to overcome
in a country of vast expanses like Spain, where
long journeys are routine. The French take the
same view; at 18.5 per cent, agreement among
them is significantly lower. They rate hybrid
technology in 1st place. The Dutch (20.8 per cent)
believe more strongly than any other respondents
that fuel cell vehicles will dominate the roads in
25 years, whilst in France just seven percent of
respondents consider this scenario to be likely.
With 25.7 per cent (electromobility) and 16.6 per cent
(hydrogen technology), the Germans occupy the
middle ground.
If we compare the current figures with those from
2012, it is apparent that expectations in regard to
range are greater, meaning that the gulf between
expectation and reality seems even more insurmountable than it did then.
In 2012, 6.6 per cent found 100 kilometres acceptable – the range that, according to statistics, would
cover more than 80 per cent of routine journeys.
Arguments for alternative driving systems
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100 %
Total
49.5
51.2
49.5
44.1
30.9
“I completely agree”
34.8
84.3%
Mobility costs
32.8
84.0%
Climate protection
34.2
83.7%
Health and nature
conservation
81.3%
Comfort/driving
enjoyment
71.4%
Financial independence
37.2
40.5
“I somewhat agree”
“As far as alternatives to the combustion engine go, hybrid and electric
motors are the most cited. If this expectation is to be reflected in the new
registration figures, however, automotive and battery manufacturers have
a lot more development work to do. The ranges that are currently achievable may be more than adequate for the majority of routine journeys but
they do not tally with the distances that would make the new drive technologies appeal to potential buyers. The industry, media and political spheres
have a lot of education work to make the new technology palatable to the
population at large.”
Michael Gebhardt
19
Hopes for affordable mobility
Cost is the main reason why Europeans feel the
combustion engine does not have much of a
future. Increasingly scarce oil supplies, so the assumption goes, will continue to push up the price
of diesel and petrol. However, 84.3 per cent of
those interviewed expect alternative fuel systems
to make mobility cheaper and still affordable
25 years from now. Benefits in terms of the
climate, health and the environment are cited
almost as frequently; more than 80 per cent of
respondents agree with these reasons, most of them
unreservedly. Another economic argument, the
economic independence of oil and gas suppliers,
is also important to Europeans. And 81.3 per cent
even believe that alternative fuel systems will ensure comfort and driving enjoyment. The Spanish
and Italians concur most strongly with this aspect
– 77.9 and 76.5 per cent, respectively – whereas in
the Netherlands just 59.2 per cent share this view.
© Continental AG
“Fears about escalating costs are the primary factor laying the ground for
alternative fuel systems. Many Europeans fear that the prices of petrol
and diesel will continue to rise and hope that switching to hybrid and
electric cars will be an affordable solution. However, what we mustn‘t
forget is that their energy consumption has its price, too and the vehicles
themselves are likely to remain more expensive to buy in the first place
than conventional cars. Added to this are the costs of expanding the
infrastructure (charging points, hydrogen filling stations, etc.) and, not
least, it creates new dependencies on – albeit different – raw material
suppliers; the lithium for the batteries also comes from outside Europe!”
What range must a car with
alternative fuel systems achieve
to make switching appeal
to you?
0
10
20
30
40
50
I would never buy a vehicle with
an alternative fuel system
19.5% More than 800 km
3.6%
15.3% 800 km
35.5% 500 km
19.6% 250 km
5.7% 100 km
0.9% 50 km
“I completely agree” and “I somewhat agree”
20
60 %
Michael Gebhardt
6
Autonomous driving
© BMW AG
A car that transports its passengers from A to B
without the person sitting at the wheel having
to move even one hand, brake or accelerate has
mastered the art of autonomous driving.
Prototypes equipped to do just that are currently
being tested; once the destination has been input,
they independently start up, accelerate, brake, indicate, turn, change lanes and do all of that so well
that they can move accident-free with the traffic
flow experienced in California‘s Silicon Valley.
There, manufacturers including Mercedes-Benz and
Google, who is entering the industry through the
back door, are testing the boundaries of feasibility.
European car drivers, however, are largely unimpressed by the positive results of the tests.
The idea of ceding control of the technology to
an armada of assistance systems, cameras and
sensors is acceptable to only a fifth of respondents
(20.8 per cent). Of those, at least half would prefer
in principle to be transported rather than drive
themselves and the other 9.9 per cent would switch
to this technology if, for example, it would lower
the costs of their insurance. In Italy, as many as
14.9 per cent of respondents would be prepared to
make the change if autonomous driving would cut
costs. In Austria, just 7.2 per cent are persuaded by
a financial incentive and in the other countries, the
figure is, without exception, in the single digits.
Using autopilot
11.0 % Yes, in principle
45.1% I want the
freedom
to choose
9.9% Yes, if it is cheaper
17.4% No, I don‘t trust the
technology
16.7% No, I‘d rather drive myself
21
However, in Austria (50.9 per cent), Germany
(51.3 per cent) and Spain (56 per cent) more than
half of respondents would be willing to switch on
an autopilot at least occasionally; in the other four
countries, the rate of agreement ranged from
36 per cent (France) and 44 per cent (Netherlands).
For Europe as a whole, it was 45.1 per cent – which
is significantly higher than in 2011/2012. At that
time, fewer than one in three respondents agreed
with this option.
A total of 17.4 per cent of respondents cite a
lack of faith in the technology as the reason for
rejecting it, which is very similar to the percentage
of all respondents (16.7 per cent) who claim that
they much prefer driving themselves. In 2011 this
aspect was cited by 23.7 per cent as a reason for
rejecting autonomous driving. Generally speaking,
it is apparent that men are slightly more receptive
to autonomous driving and women are slightly
more emphatic in their rejection of it. Their lack of
trust in the new technology is the key factor. However, only 15 in 100 women fear the loss of driving
enjoyment (men: 18.4 per cent). The mistrust is
most pronounced in France; enjoyment of driving is cited particularly frequently by the Italians
and Dutch as a reason for rejecting autonomous
driving.
Across Europe, the youngest and the oldest
participants in the survey are astonishingly unanimous: 38.2 and 38.5 per cent, respectively, are
not keen on autonomous driving. In the middle
age group, the rate of refusal is between 5 and
7 percentage points lower. The size of the locality
where they live influences the judgement;
22.9 per cent of participants who live in large
cities with more than 100,000 inhabitants declared themselves potential users of self-driving
vehicles. In small municipalities with fewer than
5,000 inhabitants, there is less approval of the
idea; at the same time, it is in these municipalities
that mistrust is most pronounced (22.7 per cent)
and the number of undecided is particularly high
(23.1 per cent).
Age-specific results
0
10
20
30
40
50%
No manufacturer will mass produce
autonomous vehicles
16.9%
18–29 years
19.0%
30–39 years
23.2%
27.1%
30.8%
40–49 years
50–59 years
60–65 years
A manufacturer from the IT sector (Google, Intel, etc.)
29.1%
25.7%
16.0%
18–29 years
30–39 years
40–49 years
12.3%
50–59 years
9.8%
60–65 years
“From the point of view of the automotive industry, autonomous driving
solves many of the problems which currently make driving an ordeal.
However, they have not yet succeeded in persuading their customers
of its merits. At the moment, only a minority are comfortable with the
notion of their own car basically becoming a driverless taxi. There is
considerable approval, however, of a technology that allows the driver
the option of steering himself or switching to autopilot. Whether we will
actually all sit back and be driven around in conventional cars is highly
questionable. It may be that, 25 years from now, compact capsules filled
with people will race from town to town along tubes like some pneumatic
post system.”
22
Michael Gebhardt
Of the respondents with university degrees, a
quarter could warm to the idea of autonomous
driving, and among Internet users the figure is
nearly a third. These groups who describe themselves as particularly open to new developments,
were the most likely to state that they didn’t want
to drive themselves. If the responses are compared
with monthly net income, it is striking that with
people on a tight household budget results
are more likely to reject autonomous driving
(37.5 per cent) and the majority of supporters
– 24.2 per cent – are in the higher income segment.
Automotive ahead of IT industry
A total of 53.5 per cent of the Europeans surveyed
believe the automotive industry will succeed in
developing the technology sufficiently quickly and
to a sufficiently reliable standard that autonomous
driving will be possible for everyone in 25 years.
Agreement is strongest among interviewees with
a net disposable income of over 3,000 euros
a month. The IT sector, which is pursuing the
same plans, is cited significantly less often
(19.6 per cent) but by an above-average number
of Italians and Spaniards (24.4 and 24.7 per cent,
respectively). A better educational level also
translates into greater confidence in the abilities
of the “outsiders” who are working on automotive
developments.
A total of 22.5 per cent of all respondents doubt
that manufacturers will even be able to manufacture autonomously operating vehicles in large
numbers within the next 25 years. In Austria and
Germany, that figure rises to around 30 per cent.
In Spain and Italy, in contrast, only 15.3 and
14.9 per cent, respectively, consider the assumption
to be unrealistic.
Who do you think is most likely to be
able to develop an autonomous vehicle?
0
10
20
30
40
50
60 %
53.5% Automotive industry
22.5% No company is capable
19.6% IT sector
4.4% Another industry
“I completely agree” and “I somewhat agree”
© Rinspeed
“Regardless of whether it is the car industry or the IT sector – anyone investigating the possibilities for autonomous driving is currently confronted with numerous legal hurdles, not to mention mistrust among customers and an infrastructure that is currently ill-equipped for autonomous
driving. It may take more than a quarter of a century before it is acceptable for a driver to turn their back to the road whilst the car transports
the passengers from A to B. For now, this is simply inconceivable. The
fact that the international rules now allow a driver using a congestion
assistant to take his hands off the wheel and his feet off the pedals – but
only on condition that they are able to intervene at all times should the
technology go haywire – is already a step forward.”
Michael Gebhardt
23
7
Mobility costs
© Honda
The majority of respondents expect that, sooner or
later, alternative mobility forms will oust conventional forms. But there is a catch. Electric cars
require electric charging points, fuel cell vehicles
require hydrogen filling stations; without the appropriate infrastructure, they cannot be driven.
Yet the changes needed are expensive.
We wanted to know who should open their wallet
in the future.
Somebody has to pay
Although Europeans have very differing views on
this question, the majority of them (33.6 per cent)
tend to feel that society at large should pay, i.e.
taxpayers‘ money should be used. Last year, this
form of financing was deemed acceptable by
34.8 per cent of respondents.
However, there are marked differences from one
country to the next: whilst this model finds favour
in Italy (41 per cent) and Germany (37.4 per cent),
in Belgium and France just 25.9 and 21.5 per cent,
respectively, favour this option. And the option of
passing the costs on to the general public is most
popular among inhabitants of large cities with a
population of over 100,000 (37.3 per cent).
A total of 21.6 per cent would prefer the costs of expanding the infrastructure to be passed on to the people who use the new engines and mobility concepts.
Slightly fewer (19.2 per cent) take the opposite
view: they believe that the people who reject the
innovations and want to continue using their own
petrol or diesel-fuelled vehicles should pay; this
was also the case a year ago. The percentage of
respondents who think the companies that are offering the new engines or concepts should foot the
bill, i.e. the manufacturers of fuel cell cars or car
sharing fleet operators, for example, is similarly
high (21.1 per cent).
24
Nevertheless, there is greater acceptance of alternative mobility forms.
In 2013/2014, 7.1 per cent of all respondents were
against them in the latest survey; just 4.6 per cent
dismiss any innovation.
It is striking, however, that the rate of rejection is
significantly higher among women (6.2 per cent)
than men (2.9 per cent).
The percentage is only higher among non-drivers
(9.2 per cent) and – hardly surprisingly – selfavowed opponents of progress (14.1 per cent).
Who should foot the infrastructure bill
for new mobility forms?
0
10
20
30
40
50 %
33.6% Taxpayers/society
21.6% Users of alternative fuel systems
21.1% Manufacturers and energy companies
19.2% Users of conventional engines
4.6% Alternative fuel systems are pointless
“I completely agree” and “I somewhat agree”
© Audi AG
Urban congestion charges
45.0% No, car drivers already pay
enough taxes
2.6% Yes, because cities are in any case
strapped for cash
12.9% Yes, because I hope it will
ease traffic in city centres
26.4% Yes, if the money
is invested in
the local public
transport network
13.1% No, because I reject
a congestion charge
“Who should pay? Opinions are divided on this question. In Europe as a
whole, a third of respondents could envisage the costs of expanding the
infrastructure being borne by the general public, in the form of a tax for
instance. But the notion of asking the vehicle manufacturers to foot the
bill also meets with resistance. Therefore it is unlikely that the sums will
add up.”
Michael Gebhardt
25
Misgivings about the city congestion charge
A clear picture emerges when asked about a city
congestion charge, like that already in operation
in London or Milan. Anyone wanting to drive their
own car into the centre of London or Milan has
to pay a rather hefty charge. In the UK capital,
for example, the toll is around 15 euros a day.
Asked whether they would be willing to pay
such a charge, a clear majority – 58.1 per cent
of Europeans surveyed – answer no. On closer
inspection, 45 per cent take the view that car
drivers already pay enough taxes and duties and
13.1 per cent of respondents reject congestion
charges as a matter of principle.
Of the good 40 per cent of respondents who have
no objection to a city congestion charge, around
two thirds – 26.4 per cent of all respondents in
total – agree with such a charge on condition that
the revenues are invested in local public transport.
A total of 12.9 per cent would be willing to pay
such a charge if it would reduce traffic chaos in the
inner cities; a good 2.5 per cent would even pay
the charge if the money simply went to the city
treasury.
The fact that acceptance of a city congestion
charge varies depending the size of city in which
the respondents live comes as no surprise:
47.7 per cent of those who live in a city with more
than 100,000 inhabitants were in favour of such
a charge, whereas in rural areas in locations with
5,000 and fewer inhabitants, only 36.4 per cent
would be willing to pay such a toll.
It is also conspicuous that willingness to pay
increases the higher the educational attainment
level. Whilst just 31 per cent of respondents with
a basic school-leaving qualification agree with the
city charge, the rate among university graduates
is almost 50 per cent. Income, however, has virtually no impact on opinions on the city congestion charge.
“The city congestion charge is, and will remain, a controversial means of
combating congested and polluted inner cities. It only makes sense if it
is implemented consistently, i.e. with as few exceptions as possible.
In London, for example, the charge is only payable for around two thirds
of cars that drive into the charging zone, the rest are exempt on the
grounds of special rules. Conversely, a toll waiver could be an incentive
to buy electric vehicles, for example.”
© “London Congestion Charge” by Mariordo (Mario Roberto Durán Ortiz) (Own work)
[CC BY-SA 3.0 (http://creativecommons.
org/licenses/by-sa/3.0)], via Wikimedia Commons
26
Michael Gebhardt
© Rafael Neddermeyer/SP-X
Acceptance of a city congestion charge
0
10
20
30
40
50
0
10
20
Size of municipalities (population)
Education
100,000 or more
University degree
47.7%
30
40
50%
49.7%
20,000 to 99,999
40.9%
Abitur (A-level equivalent) 42.3%
5,000 to 19,999
40.2%
Mittlere Reife (GCSE equivalent) 32.7%
Up to 4,999
36.4%
Certificate of secondary education 31.0%
No school-leaving qualification 28.0%
27
8
Summary and outlook
© Rinspeed
The life of a European is inconceivable without
a car. This observation made in previous
AutoScout24 studies is still true, as mobility
remains a valuable asset. Car ownership, however,
is becoming less significant; there are growing
signs that having your own car is no longer so
important. Urban dwellers and high earners in
particular are prepared to organise their individual
mobility differently to previous generations.
They are toying with the idea of using their own
car to meet their basic needs and turning to the
available alternatives (in larger locations at least)
for out-of-the-ordinary requirements – hire car,
train or bicycle.
It is clear to most people that plenty will change
over the coming years, but opinion is still split and
predictions for mobility in 2040 are frequently
rooted in the present. This year’s study shows, on
the one hand, that car drivers are open to changes
but, on the other hand, find it hard to let go of
familiar forms. This is true of the question already
mentioned – a preference for owning your own vehicle or using new mobility concepts – and equally
true of acceptance of self-driving cars or ideas
about car buying in the future.
Many respondents, for example, expect to find
additional, interactive features at the dealerships
of the future or to gather detailed information
about their ideal vehicle online, using websites
specifically designed for the purpose. Very few
believe they will make entirely virtual purchases
on the Internet.
28
The influence of mobility on quality of life in 25 years
10.9% Somewhat negative 89.1% Somewhat positive
Once again it has also been confirmed that older
car drivers are not necessarily more averse to new
technologies than young drivers.
Where older people are more sceptical is in their
responses to questions about when the new technologies will become a reality – possibly because
they have frequent experience of much-vaunted
innovations failing to have the promised positive
impact or taking far longer than expected to be
implemented.
The issue of e-mobility is an example of this:
touted as the saviour of the climate, since the
1990s it is still very much a niche phenomenon.
Nonetheless, half of respondents believe the future
lies in electricity, in the form of purely electric
cars as well as vehicles with hybrid engines or fuel
cell technology. However, the majority want e-cars
to have a far better range than they currently have
– and presumably ever will.
There’s a need to educate people in this regard, as
many people are still unaware that the majority of
routine journeys can be easily covered in a purely
electric vehicle already.
© Rinspeed
Everything will turn out fine
The good news: overall, 89.1 per cent of Europeans
are positive about the future and believe that,
25 years from now, the car will ensure an even
better quality of life than at the present time
– due in part to progress in terms of environmental
compatibility, costs, flexibility and safety. Although
the latest figures are 0.8 percentage points below
those of the previous year, the prevailing mood is
still positive.
Only 10.9 per cent expect a negative development
– among them the avowed opponents of technology: 22.7 per cent of those who indicated their opposition to new trends and developments fear that
the car of tomorrow will have a negative impact
on their quality of life, in the shape of congested
inner cities or higher costs, for instance.
29
9
Methodology
© AutoScout24
For this study, Gesellschaft für Konsumforschung
(GfK) surveyed 8,811 Europeans aged between
18 and 65 in Belgium, Germany, France, Italy, the
Netherlands, Austria and Spain.
These countries account for over two thirds of
annual new car registrations in the EU area.
This is the fourth time the survey has been conducted. The respondents are a random sample,
ensuring a representative outcome.
For each country, in the autumn of 2014 between
1,001 and 1,456 women and men answered
13 blocks of question on general and specific
requirements for the “Cars we want tomorrow”.
The responses were weighted according to the
populations of the seven countries, to take account
of their differing shares in the volume of the car
market.
The study provides information about what today’s
adults want from the car and mobility solutions of
the future.
The information was recorded for each country surveyed but also analysed according to the criteria
of gender, age, size of town where the respondents
live, children aged up to 15 in the household, educational attainment level and monthly net income.
The GfK researchers conducted the survey in the
form of a CAWI survey (Computer-Assisted Web
Interview). To enable trends and developments to
be identified, both the methods and the random
sample were the same as for the previous study.
30
To refine the agreement and rejection options for
individual statements, the majority of the questions had possible responses on a five-tier scale.
Whenever the responses could not be ranked
between the opposites of “I completely agree”
and “I completely disagree”, the interviewees
could choose one of several predefined responses
according to the single choice method.
31
AutoScout24 GmbH
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81673 Munich
Germany
[email protected]
www.autoscout24.de