Lower Merion School District Enrollment Study

Transcription

Lower Merion School District
Enrollment Study
Lower Merion School District
Enrollment Study
Prepared By
The Montgomery County Planning Commission
April 27, 2015
Board of School Directors
Dr. Robin Vann Lynch - President
Dr. Melissa Gilbert - Vice President
Laurie Actman
Diane DiBonaventuro
Ben Driscoll
Dr. Marissa Golden
Dr. Maureen O'Leary
Virginia Pollard
Subha Robinson
Acting Superintendent
Dr. Wagner Marseille, Ed.D.
Table of Contents
Introduction
................................................................................................................................................................... 1
Summary of Key Findings
.............................................................................................................................. 3
School District Characteristics
Population ........................................................................................................................................................ 5
Birth Patterns .................................................................................................................................................. 7
School District Enrollment........................................................................................................................... 9
Alternative School Enrollment ..................................................................................................................11
Housing Activity
Impacts of Housing on Enrollment ...........................................................................................................15
Housing Units Built ......................................................................................................................................17
Housing Units Proposed.............................................................................................................................19
Housing Sales ................................................................................................................................................21
District Enrollment Projections
Cohort Progression Model ........................................................................................................................25
Projected Enrollment Summaries .............................................................................................................29
Indicators of Projection Change ...............................................................................................................33
School Profiles .............................................................................................................................................................37
Appendix
............................................................................................................................................................................ 50
LOWER MERION SCHOOL DISTRICT
Introduction
School districts can only plan for their future if they
have some idea of what that future will entail. The
number of students that will need to be served by
district facilities is the key variable that must be
understood in order to make prudent decisions.
This report gives an overview of the population and
housing characteristics within the Lower Merion
School District (LMSD) in order to establish the
conditions that have formed the most recent
enrollment trends. Future enrollments will depend
largely upon the following factors:

Recent and future births

Housing activity

Moves in and out of the school district

Private, charter, home, and cyber school change
The study employs the use of a cohort progression
model to account for the above factors and form
projections for each grade level over the next ten
years. The progression model tracks changes in
grade sizes as they progress each year into the
following grade. Over time, the averages of those
progression rates are applied to future grade sizes.
The additional data and analysis in this report help
not only explain what has happened in the past but
also how it will affect the future. These important
data points should be reviewed every year to
determine if unanticipated activity is occurring and
how that might influence the projections and actual
enrollments down the line.
Three years ago, the district hired another consultant,
DeJong-Healy, who also used a cohort progression
model to project enrollments. Those projections for
the overall district have turned out to be fairly
accurate after three years. The DeJong numbers for
individual buildings were less accurate, especially
pertaining to some of the elementary schools.
This report is intended to improve upon the
remaining projection years from the previous study
by incorporating the most recent data and also
utilizing detailed geographic information kept on
record by the county. More specific and accurate
projections for individual buildings and attendance
boundaries are expected.
1
ENROLLMENT STUDY
FIGURE 1: District School Locations and Elementary School Boundary Areas
n
n
Belmont Hills ES
Welsh Valley MS
nn
n
Gladwyne ES
n
Cynwyd ES
Cynwyd MS
Penn Valley ES
n
n
Harriton HS
Merion ES
n
Lower Merion HS
Belmont Hills
Cynwyd
Gladwyne
Merion
Penn Valley
n
Penn Wynne ES
´
Penn Wynne
2
Summary of Key Findings
The Lower Merion School District is in the midst of
a major growth spurt that has increased enrollment
by more than one thousand students over the last five
years. This report is intended to identify the most
likely causes for this recent growth and then assess
those causes to best determine how enrollment will
be influenced over the next ten years.
Enrollment growth stems first from the overall
quality, reputation, and appeal of the Lower Merion
School District. This is an underlying driver of all
factors contributing towards growth, but there are at
least three specific factors that have driven the
district’s recent growth:
 Students in Lower Merion and Narberth have
been enrolling in private schools at an
exceedingly lower rate compared to public
school. Whereas about 38% of school-age
children were in private school a decade ago,
only about 32% attend private school today.
This could be a swing of as many as 600-700
students going to public school that would not
have ten years ago.
 Multifamily homes, mostly rental apartments,
are providing a greater number of public school
children than before. The rate has almost
doubled over the last eight years.
The report implements these findings into three
projection scenarios based on recent trends and a
variety of adjustments stemming from observable
changes in demographic and enrollment patterns.
The scenarios result in a high, medium, and low
projection, but all three options indicate considerable
growth on top of what has already happened in the
district. A near term reversal of recent growth is
virtually impossible since new students from the last
few years are now in the system, especially in the
younger grade levels, and most will remain in the
system through their educational life. The forces that
brought them into the district may still be at work
bringing more students as well. However, the
projected growth will not affect all school levels and
buildings the same.
The most likely projection scenario, referenced as
Option 2– Medium, implements the progression
model and adjusts it with increases for additional
students brought on by new multifamily construction
and more students coming out of existing
multifamily developments. The following results are
from Option 2:

Overall district enrollment will increase by
1,248 students over the next ten years, with
growth at its strongest during the first five of
those years. Enrollment peaks eight years out in
2022, followed by slight declines.

The elementary school level, which has grown
the most in recent years, will increase for
another year or two before starting to come back
down. Enrollment should actually be lower than
the current total at the end of the ten year study
period.
 Home sales have increased and a greater rate of
public school students are coming out of these
homes that have sold compared to those that
have left the district.
These three factors have measurably increased
enrollments in the LMSD and this growth will
continue since these additional students are now in
the system progressing through higher grade levels.
Additional growth pressure may come from over
2,000 units of new multifamily housing proposed in
the district. Many of these units are not necessarily
suited for families with young children, but the large
number promises some impact. Also, existing
3
average almost 100 additional students per year
for the next five years before starting to decline
again over the second five year period. A total
of 304 students will be added after ten years.
multifamily units will continue to draw even more
public school children as they offer the lowest barrier
to families that want to send their children to a high
quality district.

The middle school level will start to pick up
some of the elementary school growth as
students cycle through and enrollment will

The high schools have been less subject to
growth swings over the last ten years, but that
will change. Increases in high school enrollment
will rise throughout the next decade with peak
gains scheduled six to eight years out. The total
for the high schools will top 3,500 by 2024, an
increase of 1,000 students.
These are substantial growth figures, especially for
the middle and high school levels. They are
supported by real data trends that are already
occurring within Lower Merion. This report
highlights those trends and provides the district with
the expectations and understanding needed to plan
ahead.
Additionally, the appeal of the district to outsiders
should remain at a high level. Many people are
embracing a more urban lifestyle, especially the
younger generation of millennials. Lower Merion
and Narberth provide walkability, proximity to
employment, public transportation, and one of the
shortest commutes into downtown Philadelphia.
They also still maintain many suburban conveniences
and advantages, including a high quality public
education.
Note: All projection numbers have been rounded
for the sake of simplicity in this report. The original
precise numbers are kept intact within the models to
maintain integrity, so the addition of rounded
numbers in a given table may not exactly equal the
sum as shown. However, any sum total should be
School District
Characteristics
Part
Population
Birth Patterns
School District Enrollment
Alternative School Enrollment
Population
The general population within the Lower Merion
School District, which comprises Lower Merion
Township and Narberth Borough, declined by 1.4%
from 2000 to 2010. This reversed a similarly sized
gain from the previous decade. Lower Merion and
Narberth are considered built-out mature suburbs, so
population changes since 1970 have generally gone
down due to changes in household compositions with
some redevelopment compensating for those losses.
with the recent spate in apartment proposals that may
add as many as 2,000 more living units to the
district. However, it is important to recognize that
population totals do not necessarily reflect changes
in the numbers of school-age children or public
school enrollment figures. While the overall
population may grow within the district, other factors
such as shifts in age cohorts, migration of young
families, and school attendance choice within that
population can have more pronounced effects on the
numbers of public school children in the future.
Regional projections are calling for the population to
slightly increase again through 2020. Population
estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau confirm that
growth through 2013 has occurred close to the
forecasted rate. The general trend for the immediate
future is continued modest growth based on a steady
changeover of some sites with denser housing
development. The rate of increase should hasten
FIGURE 2: Population of Lower Merion School District, 1980-2020
64,500
64,000
63,500
63,000
62,500
62,000
61,500
61,000
1980
19 90
2000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, except 2020 Projections (DVRPC and MCPC)
5
2010
2020 (projected)
ENROLLMENT STUDY
FIGURE 3: Population Totals, 1990-2020
1990 1980‐1990 1980‐1990 Change Percent Total Lower Merion SD Montgomery County 2000 62,281 678,111 ‐1,844 34,740 ‐2.9% 5.4% Total 2010 1990‐2000 1990‐2000 Change Percent 62,973 748,987 692 70,876 1.1% 10.5% Total 2020 (Forecasted) 2000‐2010 2000‐2010 Change Percent 62,107 799,874 ‐866 50,887 ‐1.4% 6.8% Total 62,905 823,564 2010‐2020 2010‐2020 Change Percent 798 23,690 1.3% 3.0% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, except 2020 Forecasts (DVRPC and MCPC)
Age Cohorts and School Age Children
Age data from the last three decennial censuses
reveal patterns in how the demographics of the
Lower Merion School District have changed. The
cohort that best represents school age children is the
5-17 year old group. This cohort increased
dramatically during the 1990s but then remained
fairly steady from 2000 to 2010 with only a slight
decrease. These figures include all children, not just
public school students. The younger cohort, 0-4 year
olds (pre-school age), also remained at a similar level
in 2010 compared to 2000. This snapshot would not
suggest major shifts in enrollment if no other factors
were involved, but we know that is not the case based
on the actual enrollment levels throughout the
decade.
The remaining cohorts show that the population aged
45-54 years old represents a “bubble” where there are
disproportionately more people in this age range.
This age group along with the 55-64 year old group
roughly account for the baby boomers and the cause
for why places like the Lower Merion School District
and Montgomery County are said to be home to an
aging population. These people may still have
FIGURE 4: Age Cohorts, Lower Merion School District, 1990-2010
Age Cohort 1990 1980‐1990 Total Change 2000 1990‐2000 Total Change 2010 2000‐2010 Total Change 0‐4 3,496 893 3,207 ‐289 3,251 44 5‐17 18‐24 8,871 6,385 ‐2,543 ‐1,480 10,737 5,491 1,866 ‐894 10,709 5,933 ‐28 442 25‐34 7,448 ‐678 6,639 ‐809 5,360 ‐1,279 35‐44 9.892 2,351 8,599 ‐1,293 7,448 ‐1,151 45‐54 7,834 453 10,028 2,194 9,195 ‐833 55‐64 6,546 ‐1,356 6,692 146 8,899 2,207 65‐74 6,189 ‐355 5,282 ‐907 5,391 109 75 and over 5,620 849 6,298 678 5.921 ‐377 children in their households or have seen them move
out in recent years. The effect is that there may be
fewer children per household as these people age, but
that effect will also be countered by seniors moving
to other types of housing or downsizing, providing
opportunities for younger families to move in.
The remaining ages in between the previously
mentioned cohorts, the 25-44 year old population,
declined by large numbers in 2010. These people are
the most likely to have babies and their decline
heralds a period of lower birth activity, which can
ultimately result in fewer students enrolling for
kindergarten six years later.
This shifting of age cohorts over time is usually a
good place to start when considering why
enrollments cycle up and down, but they are only one
part of the picture when it comes to explaining and
predicting what will happen with school enrollment
in the Lower Merion School District.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
6
Population
Birth Patterns
Birth Patterns
The number of births in an area is an important
component to projecting future enrollment in a
school district. While some families will migrate
over time, births provide a beginning indicator of the
potential size of future kindergarten classes. This
relationship will be detailed in the cohort progression
model (p. 25-28), but it is important to note that
existing birth data influences what will happen with
entering students over the first five years of the
projection period. Also note that annual birth totals
are aligned to match the school calendar year
(September—August) in order to make the most
accurate correlations to future kindergarten classes.
The trend for live births since 1998 in the Lower
Merion School District is a general decrease over
time. Looking at four-year increments, the average
number of births has gone from 631 in 1998-2001 to
547 from 2010-2013. Births have dropped in the
2011 and 2012 school years, but they are expected to
have gone back up in 2013 based on an estimate
using partial year data available.
This general decline over the last decade or more is
not just relative to the LMSD. Countywide, birth
totals have also fallen since 2008. Has the downturn
in the economy starting with the Great Recession in
2008 driven this decline in births? Logically, it
would make sense for some to defer or delay
decisions to have children based on economic
uncertainty in one’s life. Some studies have looked
at national population bases, both the United States
and globally, and determined that overall fertility
rates do decline with downturns in the economy.
However, in the Lower Merion School District, the
rate of decline since the recession has not been any
faster than the years preceeding it. The countywide
FIGURE 5: Number of Live Births in Lower Merion School District by School Calendar Year (Sept.-Aug.)
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
* Births during the 2014 months in the 2013-2014 school year were estimated due to state data being unreleased at the time of this report.
Source: Pennsylvania Department of Health
7
ENROLLMENT STUDY
pattern, and that of many other districts, appears
more closely aligned to the timing of the recession.
The economy can have an impact as it influences
factors such as housing construction and sales
activity, but it alone should not be considered the
cause for declines in births in the LMSD. Therefore,
future improvements in the economy may not have a
strong effect on driving births upward again.
Attempting to pinpoint the causes of change in birth
totals over time is difficult, but another clue comes
from looking at the population of child-bearing age
women. According to the Pennsylvania Department
of Health, birth activity in Montgomery County is at
its highest when potential mothers are between the
FIGURE 6: Number of Live Births in LMSD
by School Calendar Year (Sept.-Aug.)
School Year 2000‐01 2001‐02 2002‐03 2003‐04 2004‐05 ages of 25-34. The population of women in that age
group from the LMSD dropped from 3,400 in 2000
to 2,804 in 2010, a loss of over 17%. Figure 7
identifies age cohorts for females of child-bearing
age. Interestingly, all other cohorts for females of
child-bearing age also decreased across the decade.
These demographics do not give cause to suggest
that the 25-34 year old female cohort will increase
by 2020. However, the countywide forecasts
adopted by DVRPC show that this age group is
ascending in number and will continue to do so
through at least 2025. New apartment construction
and an increase in housing sales activity could still
bring about more younger women of child bearing
age into the LMSD and thus increase the chances for
greater annual births, but severe changes are not
anticipated.
FIGURE 7: Females of Child-Bearing Age
in LMSD, 2000 and 2010
LMSD 621 660 588 568 582 2005‐06 604 2006‐07 566 2007‐08 573 2008‐09 560 2009‐10 543 2010‐11 569 2011‐12 536 2012‐13 2013‐14* 526 555 Birth Rates
Birth rates are a different statistic than live births.
An increase or decrease in actual births could be
explained by concurrent growth or decline in the
population base, but birth rates average out the
number of live births per 1,000 persons in an area.
The statistics in Figure 9 confirm that the trend of
lower birth activity is not solely caused by an overall
reduction in population.
FIGURE 8: Birth Rates (Births Per 1,000 Population) in LMSD by Calendar Year (Jan.-Dec.)
Calendar Year 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 LMSD 9.8 8.9 9.3 9.5 9.2 Montgomery County 12.7 12.3 12.1 12.3 11.9 Age Cohort 2000 Females 2010 Females 2008 9.4 12.1 Age 15 ‐ 19 Age 20 ‐ 24 Age 25 ‐ 29 Age 30 ‐ 34 Age 35 ‐ 39 Age 40 ‐ 44 2009 8.8 11.7 2010 9.1 11.4 2011 9.3 11.2 2012 2013 8.6 8.4 11.0 10.7 2,711 2,660 1,589 1,811 2,199 2,480 2,683 2,283 1,391 1,413 1,824 2,168 Sources: Pennsylvania Department of Health, U.S. Census Bureau
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
* Births during the 2014 months in the 2013-2014
school year were estimated due to state data being
unreleased at the time of this report.
Source: Pennsylvania Department of Health (modified
by MCPC from detailed address review of files)
8
Population
Birth Patterns
Over the last six years, district enrollment has grown
by 18%, adding 1,241 students and reaching more
than 8,000 total students. Looking further back, the
district has been adding students on a fairly regular
basis since 1989, when enrollment was only around
5,200 students. The recent growth has been
somewhat unexpected in its rate of increase given the
lack of an appreciable population or housing
construction gain. Looking at the school level
distributions in Figures 9 and 10, growth is
observable at each of the three levels in the district,
but it is most pronounced within the K-5 or
elementary level. This study is intended to answer the
question of how much growth will continue within
the district, but it is clear that enrollment should
continue to grow in the immediate future. The
swelling early grade levels today will advance
through the system and replace likely smaller class
sizes that came before them.
FIGURE 9: School District Enrollment by Grade Divisions, 2005-2014
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
K‐5
5,000
4,000
6‐8
3,000
9‐12
2,000
Total K‐
12
1,000
0
2005‐ 2006‐ 2007‐ 2008‐ 2009‐ 2010‐ 2011‐ 2012‐ 2013‐ 2014‐
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
Source: Lower Merion School District (enrollment as of the 10th day of each school year)
9
ENROLLMENT STUDY
FIGURE 10: District Enrollment by Division, 2005-2014
Year Total Number Change Percent Change K‐12 from Previous Year from Previous Year 2005‐06 6,899 140 2.1% 2006‐07 6,945 46 0.7% 2007‐08 6,920 ‐25 ‐0.4% 2008‐09 6,812 ‐108 ‐1.6% 2009‐10 6,952 140 2.1% Grade K‐5 2,774 2,863 2,943 2,961 3,039 Grade 6‐8 1,657 1,610 1,586 1,583 1,614 Grade 9‐12 2,468 2,472 2,391 2,268 2,299 2010‐11 7,142 190 2.7% 3,140 1,660 2,342 2011‐12 7,360 218 3.1% 3,286 1,728 2,346 2012‐13 7,682 322 4.4% 3,399 1,808 2,475 2013‐14 7,859 177 2.3% 2014‐15 8,053 194 2.5% 3,508 3,659 1,866 1,874 2,485 2,520 Source: Lower Merion School District (enrollment as of the 10th day of each school year)
FIGURE 11: District Enrollment by Grade, 2005-2014
Year 2005‐06 2006‐07 2007‐08 2008‐09 2009‐10 K 317 366 353 352 391 1 470 480 522 494 518 2 522 485 504 536 521 3 467 549 509 517 551 4 484 484 552 505 533 5 514 499 503 557 525 6 490 533 514 499 562 7 570 501 560 523 514 8 597 576 512 561 538 9 587 613 568 515 602 10 637 583 608 560 528 11 642 624 594 601 563 12 602 652 621 592 606 2010‐11 411 528 539 544 571 547 549 584 527 584 620 547 591 2011‐12 413 585 556 564 568 600 564 564 600 573 589 635 549 2012‐13 438 602 614 572 580 593 630 593 585 656 579 601 639 2013‐14 2014‐15 449 454 630 621 616 658 640 660 585 660 588 606 603 610 662 604 601 660 614 642 677 610 587 671 607 597 Source: Lower Merion School District (enrollment as of the 10th day of each school year)
10
Population
Birth Patterns
Potential alternative schooling choices include
private schools, charter/cyber schools, and
homeschooling. Enrollment in these schools are
enumerated from several data sources and do not
always have a consistent historical record. Further
confusing matters is that charter and most cyber
schools are also considered public schools.
Private Schools
While public school enrollment has been increasing
over the last six years, the opposite appears to have
occurred with private school enrollment for residents
in Lower Merion and Narberth. National and district
data sources both show a considerable decline for
private school enrollment in recent years.
The U.S. Census Bureau and its American
Community Survey (ACS) provides data on public
versus private school enrollment, which is probably
the most straightforward assessment of trends.
However, these figures are still estimates with a
margin of error and they rely upon the accuracy of
individuals filling out questionnaires. Figure 12
shows the available data that can be compared from
the Census and ACS.
The Census Bureau indicates that private school
enrollment has gone from 38.7% of school-age
children in 2000 to only 32.6% from 2011-2013.
Such a decrease is a swing of approximately 700
FIGURE 12: Private School Enrollment According
to U.S. Census Bureau
Year 2000 2013* Private School Percent in Private Students School 4,174 38.7% 3,470 32.6% The Lower Merion School District also keeps data on
residents that attend private school through its
monitoring of district bus records which include
public and private school students. However, the
data is incomplete as it only recognizes students who
FIGURE 13: Private School Enrollment According
to LMSD Bus Records
School Year 2006‐2007 Private School Students 3,296 2007‐2008 3,328 2008‐2009 3,240 2009‐2010 3,078 2010‐2011 2,914 2011‐2012 2,854 2012‐2013 2,758 2013‐2014 2,674 2014‐2015 2,719 Note: Data only recognizes private school students that opt for
LMSD bus transportation.
Source: Lower Merion School District Bus Records
Dataset Census 2000, ACS, 3 Year Es mates, 2011‐2013 * 3 Year Estimates from the ACS are an average of 3 years worth
of sampling data
11
students that could be in public school as opposed to
private. However, we must also acknowledge that
these Census figures are subject to a margin of error
and the level of accuracy diminishes with shorter
time frames and smaller geographies.
ENROLLMENT STUDY
are using the district’s public buses. The bus data in
Figure 13 goes back to the 2006-07 school year and
supports a general decrease in private school
students. This data shows a gradual pattern of
decline, but the numbers appear to drop by a similar
margin assuming that non-district transported
students fell at a similar rate.
The level of change in private school students
compared to the gains in public school enrollment
reveals a shift that has contributed to growth in the
district. However, this shift does not appear to be
based on existing private school students enrolling in
public school due to the economy. The district’s data
on incoming student transfers shows that the number
of new public students in grades 2-12 coming from
local private schools has gone down each of the last
four years.
Homeschooling
The last alternative, which is not considered public
schooling, is homeschooling where the parent is
responsible for educating the child. District records
show that there were 43 students being
homeschooled within the LMSD during the 20132014 school year. This number has been relatively
stable over the last four years, but averaged in the 30s
during the middle of the 2000-2010 decade. The
number of homeschooled students in Montgomery
County has been relatively stable over this time
period. While these levels should be monitored, the
relatively low numbers still have a minimal impact
on the overall enrollment in the district.
The more likely situation is that families moving into
the district with children just starting school or not
yet there are moving with the intention of enrolling in
public school over private at a greater ratio than in
the past. While there is no specific data to verify this
notion, it seems the most reasonable explanation for
the increase in the ratio of public school students to
private school students within Lower Merion and
Narberth.
Charter / Cyber Schools
Charter schools are still considered public in that
they usually have free tuition and are funded with
public dollars. However, they are independently
operated and students are not considered in the
district enrollment figure. According to the Lower
Merion School District, there were 32 students living
in the district in 2014-15 that enrolled in charter
schools. Most of these were actually cyber charter
schools, which are a form of home-based virtual
charter schools. These types of schools are relatively
new options in the area, first appearing less than ten
years ago. The district’s records show that there has
been an average of 28 charter school students per
year since 2005.
12
13
Housing Activity
Part
Housing Activity
Impacts of Housing on Enrollment
School Age Children by Housing Type
Housing Units Built
Housing Units Proposed
Housing Sales
The average number of school age children in a
residential unit depends on the type of residential
unit. MCPC reviews the latest census data and
compares it to county property records as part of its
report titled, “Characteristics of the Population in
New and Existing Housing Units.” The latest report,
based on the 2010 Census, contains the average
number of school age children in single family
detached, attached (townhomes and twins), and
multifamily (apartments or multiple units in a
structure) housing types. The data is also analyzed in
terms of new and existing units. The results of the
study (Figure 14) show that a newly constructed
single family detached home is over 15 times more
likely to contain a school age child than multifamily
units. The difference is less stark when considering
all existing units, but there are clearly more children
found in detached units than in multifamily units,
with single family attached units falling in between
the other two.
The methodology for the report was replicated to just
focus on data within the Lower Merion School
District. While there were not enough new units to
develop representative figures, existing units were
comparable to the county regarding their disparity
between housing types. Multifamily and attached
units in the LMSD had fewer children per unit than the
county, but detached homes had a higher rate of
children per unit. These factors can be used to make
estimates on the impact of different housing types in
terms of school age children, but it should be noted
that the study only considers census blocks of housing
that are homogenous. Additional information was
collected for multifamily housing since it is a concern
with current projects being proposed in the district.
Multifamily Housing Analysis
The district’s student records from 2006-07, 2010-11,
and 2014-15 were compared to the addresses of all
multifamily developments with 20 or more units in
Lower Merion and Narberth. The results shown in
Figure 15 indicate that the number of public school
children coming from multifamily developments has
been increasing. There were 0.08 public school
FIGURE 14: Average Number of School Aged Children by Housing Unit Type
Montgomery County
Single Family Detached Single Family A ached Mul family School Age Children per Household in Exis ng Units 0.55 0.41 0.18 School Age Children per Household in New Units 0.93 0.21 0.06 Single Family Detached Single Family A ached Mul family School Age Children per Household in Exis ng Units 0.64 0.31 0.06 School Age Children per Household in New Units NA NA NA Lower Merion School District
Source: Montgomery County Planning Commission
15
ENROLLMENT STUDY
FIGURE 15: Actual LMSD Data for All Existing
Multifamily Developments with 20 Units or More
Year 2006‐07 2010‐11 2014‐15 LMSD 242 296 432 Units 5,385 5,514 5,514 Student / Unit 0.04 0.05 0.08 Note: Only includes public students and ratio is based on units,
not households.
FIGURE 16: Percentage of Children in LMSD Area Households Related to Geographic Mobility
Persons Age 1‐4 Persons Age 5‐17 Persons Age 25‐34 Percent Percent of Percent Total Persons Number of Total Number Total Number of Total Persons in households that have moved within the last year 8,135 425 5.2% 922 11.3% 1,759 21.6% Persons in households that have remained in the same house 53,537 2,120 4.0% 9,999 18.7% 3,720 6.9% Source: American Community Survey, 2009-2013 Estimates
students per existing multifamily unit in the 2014-15
school year. This is still a fairly low rate, and new
units typically have fewer school-age children then
existing units.
This data also shows that multifamily rental units
have a higher rate of public school students (0.12/
unit) than owner-occupied units (0.04/unit).
However, many of the children coming out of
existing rental units are from older developments
that may be more affordable to families seeking an
opportunity to enter the LMSD. More expensive
luxury apartment rentals like many being proposed
may not provide as many public school students.
See the Appendix for a full listing of the properties
studied in this analysis and their student/unit rates.
Migration of Households
The connection between new housing units and new
population is fairly clear, although it also depends on
the type of units. The impact of household
movement in and out of existing housing units is a
less certain connection, but it is still incorporated
into the cohort progression model. It would be
useful to look at sales data of homes and come to an
understanding of what might happen with school age
children when sales activity increases for one reason
or another.
The American Community Survey offers data on
geographic mobility of households and the age
composition of those households. Figure 16 shows a
breakdown of households that have remained within
the same house as the year prior and households that
have moved within the last year. This latter group
would constitute the characteristics of people who
are purchasing homes or moving into rental units.
The results show that the percentage of school age
children is higher in homes that are occupied by the
same household as the year before. This would seem
to indicate that new households will contain fewer
school age children than homes that have not been
sold or rented to a new household. However, what
this data does not show is who has been replaced by
the new household. If those new households that do
have children are taking the place of a household
without children, such as an empty nester or
nonfamily household, then the new sale or rental can
still drive enrollment higher.
FIGURE 17: Impact of Housing Units Sold on
Enrollment
Year of Housing Units Sold Number of Units Sold Another analysis using county housing sales data and
district enrollment records was conducted to identify
public school students that lived in homes prior to being
sold and students that lived in a home after it was sold.
The results in Figure 17, show that the net gain in
public students resulting from sales in a specific year
has doubled from 2009 to 2013. This suggests that
recent sales in the LMSD are adding new students into
the district at a greater rate than sales from five years
ago. This does not address rental units, but an increase
in sales would likely add more students than would
otherwise be expected.
Owner / Renter Occupied
Housing in the LMSD is predominately owner
occupied—75 percent of all occupied units. This is
slightly higher than the rate of home ownership in the
county as a whole. Overall, the rental market has been
stronger in recent years after the recession and decline
of the housing market since 2008. Almost all of the
current multifamily proposals in the LMSD are
designated to become rental units. Data from the 2010
Census (Figure 18) suggests that children under the age
of 18 are more likely to be found in owner occupied
housing than they are in renter occupied housing.
2009 658 2013 976 Incoming Students at Address of Units Sold 165 303 FIGURE 18: Presence of Children Within LMSD
Outgoing Students at Address of Units Sold 125 222 Net Change in Students from Sales Ac vity + 40 + 81 Owner Occupied Housing Renter Occupied Housing Source: LMSD Records, MCPC Median Price Sales Reports
Percent of Housing with Children Under 18 35% 20% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census
16
Housing Activity
Housing Units Built
Residential construction activity in Montgomery
County hit historic lows following the recession and
housing market bubble burst in 2008. Development
in the LMSD hit its lowest point in 2010 and 2011,
but Lower Merion and Narberth are different from
many municipalities due to their older suburban
character with an increasing presence of more urban
types of development. Most of the land is considered
built out, so new development usually occurs on sites
with demolitions or other infill sites that may not
have been fully developed. Changes in the zoning
codes can also spur new development such as recent
rezoning activity around City Avenue in Bala
Cynwyd.
Housing Units Built
Housing Sales
Development since 2000 has generally consisted of
less than 50 units per year except for when a larger
multifamily development gets built, such as the
Corinthian Condominiums. The types of units being
built vary from year to year, but all three are fairly
represented. There has been an upswing in attached
homes in 2012 and 2013. This is expected to
continue for the time being as some property owners
have assembled groups of smaller lots, often with
older detached units located on them, and proceeded
to propose or build more units in order to increase
the value of their property.
Figure 19 shows the last ten years of actual
residential construction in the district. Future
development is not considered to change drastically
with regards to single family detached and attached
units. However, there has been an immense level of
interest in higher density multifamily construction.
Over 2,000 units are currently being proposed that
could see construction within the next 5-6 years.
This construction will need to be considered as an
influence on enrollment growth that is outside of the
recent construction trends accounted for in the
projection models.
The map in Figure 20 on the following page shows
the most recent developments in the LMSD,
recognizing all units built from 2009 through 2013.
FIGURE 19: Housing Units Built in the LMSD by Housing Type, 2004-2013
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Multifamily
Single Family Attached
Single Family Detached
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
17
ENROLLMENT STUDY
FIGURE 20: Housing Units Built in the LMSD, 2009-2013
n
n
Belmont Hills ES
Welsh Valley MS
nn
n
Gladwyne ES
n
Cynwyd ES
Cynwyd MS
Penn Valley ES
n
n
Harriton HS
Merion ES
n
Lower Merion HS
n
Legend
BELMONT HILLS
CYNWYD
GLADWYNE
MERION
PENN VALLEY
PENN WYNNE
Penn Wynne ES
Type of Housing Unit Built
Multifamily Units
Single Family Attached Units
Single Family Detached Units
´
18
Housing Activity
Housing Units Built
Housing Sales
Lower Merion is currently looking at a remarkable
number of proposed multifamily apartment
buildings. The housing market has started to
improve, but it is the rental market in the
Philadelphia region that is currently booming.
Recent zoning changes have also encouraged high
density residential uses along the existing Bala
Cynwyd office corridor and the Schuylkill riverfront.
Some of these projects have been on the table for
many years and are only now close to coming to
fruition. The chart in Figure 21 shows the volume of
units proposed each year over the last decade.
Proposals are only counted once, but plans will often
go through multiple submissions and variations as
the process takes place. Not all of those units will be
built, but a high percentage of them now have a
strong chance of being constructed.
The map in Figure 22 shows the location and number
of units for the developments that are most likely to
be built in the next one to six years. Each project has
been estimated in terms of its most realistic timeline
and the number of public school children they are
likely to house. The number of additional public
school students expected to come from these
proposals has also been estimated based upon the
county and local student/unit factors, including the
existing multifamily development inventory located
in the appendix. Approximately 108 new students
are expected if all these units get built. See Figure
35 on page 34 for the detailed estimates and
timelines for each proposal. Due to a lack in
multifamily construction over the last five years, a
housing adjustment is recommended for the
projections in Part Three.
This potential construction will not affect all
individual schools equally. Almost half of the new
students will fall within the Cynwyd Elementary
School boundary, and about a third will come into
the Penn Valley Elementary School boundary.
Gladwyne and Merion boundaries will receive no
impact. The middle schools and high schools will be
pretty evenly disbursed in terms of potential new
students from these developments, although a few
more will come into the Bala Cynwyd Middle
School and Lower Merion High School side.
FIGURE 21: Housing Units Proposed in the LMSD, 2004-2013
800
700
600
500
Multifamily
400
Single Family Attached
300
Single Family Detached
200
100
0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
19
ENROLLMENT STUDY
FIGURE 22: Proposed Housing Developments Expected to be Constructed
601 & 615 Righters Ferry
237 Units
600 Righters Ferry
593 Units
131-151 Rock Hill Rd
332 Units
n
n
150 Monument Rd
207 Units
Belmont Hills ES
335 Righters Ferry
210 Units
Welsh Valley MS
nn
n
Gladwyne ES
Cynwyd ES
Cynwyd MS
n
Penn Valley ES
n
n
Harriton HS
Merion ES
n
331 Penn Rd
250 Units
Lower Merion HS
112 Sibley
46 Units
Palmer Seminary
130 Units
24 Cricket Ave
110 Units
11-15 E. Athens Ave.
25 Units
Legend
BELMONT HILLS
CYNWYD
GLADWYNE
MERION
PENN VALLEY
PENN WYNNE
n
Penn Wynne ES
´
20
Housing Activity
Housing Sales
Market-rate housing sales activity in the LMSD has
followed a pattern similar to countywide sales
activity. The number of units sold peaked at very
high levels in the early to mid 2000s before the
housing boom crashed and the economy entered a
recession. Sales levels continually declined to
historically low levels through 2011. During this
collapse, home values flattened out and often
depreciated as financial markets tightened up for
potential buyers.
Housing Units Built
Housing Sales
in that time. At the county and local levels, these
figures still pale in comparison to earlier in the last
decade, but it is unlikely that the market returns to
those markers in the foreseeable future.
The impact of an increase in sales in the LMSD is
that it can spur migration activity in an area that
features a majority of its housing stock as owneroccupied housing. It was demonstrated on pages 1516 that home sales in recent years have brought more
public school children with them. Continual
increases in sales over the near future could continue
this “churning” of households and sustain more
growth for the district.
The last two years have shown the beginnings of a
recovery in the county with the number of home
sales rising 31% from 2011 to 2013. That recovery
has been even stronger in Lower Merion and
Narberth with the number of sales growing by 35%
FIGURE 23: Total Housing Units Sold in the LMSD, 2004-2013
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
21
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
ENROLLMENT STUDY
FIGURE 24: Existing Housing Units Sold in the LMSD, 2009-2013
n
n
Belmont Hills ES
Welsh Valley MS
nn
n
Gladwyne ES
n
Cynwyd ES
Cynwyd MS
Penn Valley ES
n
n
Harriton HS
Merion ES
n
Lower Merion HS
n
Legend
BELMONT HILLS
CYNWYD
GLADWYNE
MERION
PENN VALLEY
PENN WYNNE
Penn Wynne ES
Type of Housing Unit Sold
Multifamily Units
Single Family Attached Units
Single Family Detached Units
´
22
23
District Enrollment
Projections
Part
Cohort Progression Model
Projected Enrollment Summaries
Indicators of Projection Change
The method used in this study to calculate
projections for each grade level is known as the
Cohort Progression Model, which is also referred to
as Cohort Survival in some applications. This is a
fairly common approach and one used by the state
and other districts in formulating projections.
However, it should always be used with caution and
presented in context with the other variables offered
in this report. In some districts there will be cause
for adjustments to the model based on changing
factors in population growth or migration.
The nature of the model allows it to integrate trend
activity across a number of variables. Birth rates
have the most obvious impacts in the model, but the
changes that take place account for trends in
population migration, housing construction, sales,
and alternative schooling choices, such as private,
charter, or homeschooling opportunities.
The model is fairly straightforward in its method. It
tracks each class in a given year and measures the
change in that class from one year to the next. Then
it applies an average of changes over a specified time
period to determine the percentage of a given grade
likely to “progress” to the next grade in future years.
A six year average was used for the Lower Merion
School District, since it would account for enrollment
patterns from the 2009 through 2014 school years.
Figure 25 displays all of the progression rates for
each grade transition from the last nine school years.
The most recent six year average is calculated to
arrive at a basic trend that will be applied for each
projected year. Any progression rate that is greater
than 1.0 indicates that a class increased in size from
one year to the next as it also moved up a grade level.
Progression rates that are lower than 1.0 indicate that
a class decreased in size. For example, the eighth
grade class of the 2012 school year increased in size
when it entered the ninth grade in 2013 at a rate of
1.05. Using actual enrollment figures, the class went
from 585 to 614 students during that period. The
25
following year in 2014, it entered the tenth grade and
this time it decreased at a rate of 0.993, losing four
students by the enrollment figures.
Progression rates between the numbered grades in the
LMSD are high compared to most districts. The
average for every grade level above kindergarten is
above 1.0. Often, districts with a strong reputation
for performance will add students at many of the
early grade levels, but it may become less guaranteed
as students advance. By high school, many districts
see progressions below 1.0 due to dropouts and a
lower likelihood of older students transitioning into a
new district at this stage of school.
The six-year average progression rates for the LMSD
generally do decrease through the range of grades as
they get higher until the ninth grade. The rate for
incoming high school freshmen classes jumps higher
than any rate since the first grade. This appears to
have started around the 2009 school year which was
also about the time that the two high schools
underwent significant renovations and expansions.
However, some more historic progression rates from
the previous decade also show big jumps at the ninth
grade level.
The magnitude of the progression rates account for
the trends outlined in this study that are driving up
enrollments—public school preference, multifamily
student ratios, increased home sales, and the essential
attractiveness of the district to families from outside
the district. These rates almost make growth
inevitable, even if births or age cohort demographics
might imply otherwise.
Birth-to-Kindergarten Ratio
The projection of future enrollments in the model
requires that we apply the trends in progression rates
to future classes as they go from one grade to the
next. However, the kindergarten class for each year
does not have an enrollment figure for its prior year
since those children would be in preschool or home
care outside of the district system. Therefore, we
must use live birth data to identify ratios of births to
ENROLLMENT STUDY
FIGURE 25: Grade Progression Rates Over the Last Nine Years
School Year K‐1 1‐2 2‐3 3‐4 4‐5 5‐6 6‐7 7‐8 8‐9 9‐10 2006‐07 Birth‐K* 0.589 1.514 1.032 1.052 1.036 1.031 1.037 1.022 1.011 1.027 0.993 10‐11 0.980 11‐12 1.016 2007‐08 0.535 1.426 1.050 1.049 1.005 1.039 1.030 1.051 1.022 0.986 0.992 1.019 0.995 2008‐09 0.599 1.399 1.027 1.026 0.992 1.009 0.992 1.018 1.002 1.006 0.986 0.988 0.997 2009‐10 0.687 1.472 1.055 1.028 1.031 1.040 1.009 1.030 1.029 1.073 1.025 1.005 1.008 2010‐11 0.704 1.350 1.041 1.044 1.036 1.026 1.046 1.039 1.025 1.086 1.030 1.036 1.050 2011‐12 0.684 1.423 1.053 1.046 1.044 1.051 1.031 1.027 1.027 1.087 1.009 1.024 1.004 2012‐13 0.768 1.458 1.050 1.029 1.028 1.044 1.050 1.051 1.037 1.093 1.010 1.020 1.006 2013‐14 0.778 1.438 1.023 1.042 1.023 1.014 1.017 1.051 1.013 1.050 1.032 1.014 1.010 2014‐15 0.808 1.383 1.044 1.071 1.031 1.036 1.037 1.002 0.997 1.068 0.993 0.991 1.017 6‐Yr Avg. 2009‐2014 0.738 1.421 1.044 1.044 1.032 1.035 1.032 1.033 1.022 1.076 1.017 1.015 1.016 * The birth-to-kindergarten ratio uses birth data six years prior to the indicated school year, thus drawing the relationship between children born and the year they would actually enter kindergarten.
FIGURE 26: Grade Progression Rates with Historical Comparison
School Year 7 Year Average 1994 –2000 Birth‐K* K‐1 1‐2 2‐3 3‐4 4‐5 5‐6 6‐7 7‐8 8‐9 9‐10 0.432 1.762 1.007 1.015 1.014 1.015 0.993 1.022 1.008 1.027 1.008 1.014 1.013 2002‐03 0.492 1.601 1.016 1.037 1.024 1.035 1.022 1.042 1.037 1.080 1.010 1.012 1.017 2006‐07 6‐Yr Avg. 2009 ‐2014 0.589 1.514 1.032 1.052 1.036 1.031 1.037 1.022 1.011 1.027 0.993 0.980 1.016 0.741 1.421 1.044 1.044 1.032 1.035 1.032 1.033 1.022 1.076 1.017 1.015 1.016 kindergarten. The birth data comes from a given past
year and is then applied to the kindergarten class that
would follow six years later in order to capture the
same children at each end of the ratio. For instance,
a birth-to-kindergarten ratio for the 2014-15 school
year uses birth data from 2008-09 as the numerator
and divides it by the kindergarten enrollment in 2014
to form the rate (0.808) shown in Figure 25.
The ratios of births to kindergarten are much lower
than the yearly grade progression rates. Some will
go straight into a private school, and others may
move away before entry into kindergarten. The
averaging out of the ratios gives us the best
approximation of the net result of all birth and
migration activity in the district, but clearly there is
room for error in any singular instance.
One beneficial aspect of a birth-to-kindergarten ratio
is that it allows the model to integrate real data into
the first five years of the projection period. In other
words, projections of kindergarten classes for the
first five years, through the 2019 school year, can
account for real changes in birth patterns that have
10‐11 11‐12 occurred from 2009 to 2013. The downside is that an
estimated birth figure must be used for any projection
beyond the 2019 school year.
Projection Periods
Due to the distinction between using real birth data
and the need to estimate beyond five years,
enrollment projections are divided into two periods.
The primary period covers the first five school years
from 2015 to 2019, and the secondary period covers
the next five school years from 2020 to 2024. There
is a higher degree of accuracy expected during the
26
primary period than in the secondary period. Recent
trends are more likely to continue in the short term
before outside factors can influence a change in
patterns, but the use of the birth data also gives a
more dependable start to projecting the size of
kindergarten classes in the future.
Estimated Births
The projection of kindergarten classes after 2019
requires the use of estimated birth figures for the next
five years. A simple approach to estimate these
births is to use an average of the most recent birth
figures and extend it through the end of the
projection period.
housing construction. The Multifamily Students
Adjustment assumes that more students will be
moving into existing multifamily properties, thus
raising the current 0.08 students/unit ratio to 0.1
students/unit by the end of the projection period
resulting in a gain of 120 additional students over the
next ten years.

Housing and Multifamily Students Adjustments
are included with no further adjustments.

Estimated births for the next five years are based
on an average of the last three years (539 births).

Private school attendance will remain at its
current historically low percent.
Details of the three options are as follows:
OPTION 1—High Projection
OPTION 3—Low Projection

are included.

are included.

Increase in Housing Sales Activity - An
adjustment that provides for 93 additional
students over ten years to reflect an increase in
housing sales to 1,100 units per year by 2017.


Increase in Estimated Births - The future births
estimated for the next five years that will impact
entering classes between 2020 and 2024. has
been increased to progressively reach 600 births,
cycling back to birth rates in line with ten years
ago.
Private school attendance will remain at its
current historically low percent.
Private school attendance will begin to cycle
back to a higher percentage than the present,
thus reducing the number of students enrolled in
public school. The mechanism used to account
for this change is substituting a 9-year average
of progression rates instead of a 6-year average.
Three additional years of older rates brings the
rates down to a level closer to the period when a
higher percentage of school-age children were
going to public school. See Figure 30 for rates.

Estimated births for the next five years are based
on an average of the last three years (539 births).
Projected Enrollments
Figures 27, 28, and 29 offer three variations of grade
by grade projections over the next ten years. They
have been designated as High, Medium, and Low,
simply by the level of growth that they support. Each
option differs by the assumptions that are made along
with designated adjustments to each model. All three
options include the same housing adjustment and
increase in multifamily students adjustment. The
Housing Adjustment incorporates the 108 additional
students over time expected from likely multifamily
OPTION 2—Medium Projection

FIGURE 27: Projected Enrollments, OPTION 1—High Projection
Births 6 School Year Years Ago* K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 TOTAL 2015‐16 543 404 647 650 688 683 685 627 632 619 712 654 621 683 8,303 2016‐17 569 426 576 677 681 713 709 709 650 648 668 726 666 633 8,480 2017‐18 536 406 608 606 712 708 743 737 737 669 702 684 742 682 8,736 2018‐19 526 403 578 639 636 739 736 770 765 757 724 718 699 758 8,923 2019‐20 555 427 570 605 669 659 767 762 798 784 816 738 731 712 9,037 2020‐21 564 436 602 596 633 692 684 793 789 817 844 832 751 744 9,212 2021‐22 573 444 613 630 623 654 717 706 820 807 879 860 846 764 9,365 2022‐23 582 453 625 641 658 644 678 741 731 839 869 895 874 861 9,509 2023‐24 591 461 636 653 670 680 668 701 767 748 903 884 910 889 9,570 2024‐25 600 469 647 665 682 693 705 690 725 784 805 919 899 926 9,609 * The birth figure for each row does not pertain to births during that year, but rather the births that occurred six years prior to the projected year.
27
ENROLLMENT STUDY
FIGURE 28: Projected Enrollments, OPTION 2—Medium Projection
Births 6 School Year Years Ago* K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2015‐16 543 404 646 650 688 682 684 626 632 618 711 654 620 683 8298 2016‐17 569 425 575 676 680 712 708 708 649 647 667 725 665 632 8468 2017‐18 536 405 606 604 710 706 741 735 736 667 700 682 740 680 8713 2018‐19 526 401 575 637 634 736 734 768 763 755 721 715 696 756 8891 2019‐20 555 424 566 602 665 656 764 758 795 781 813 735 728 709 8994 2020‐21 539 413 598 592 629 688 679 789 785 813 840 828 747 740 9141 TOTAL 2021‐22 539 414 582 625 618 650 712 702 815 802 875 855 841 759 9251 2022‐23 539 415 583 608 652 639 673 735 725 834 863 890 869 855 9341 2023‐24 539 416 584 609 635 674 661 694 760 742 897 878 904 883 9338 2024‐25 539 417 585 610 636 656 698 683 718 777 798 912 892 919 9301 FIGURE 29: Projected Enrollments, OPTION 3—Low Projection
Births 6 School Year Years Ago* K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 TOTAL 2015‐16 543 373 650 648 688 678 682 624 631 616 696 648 616 680 8,231 2016‐17 569 393 535 679 678 707 701 703 646 644 650 703 656 625 8,320 2017‐18 536 375 565 561 712 699 734 725 730 662 682 660 714 667 8,486 2018‐19 526 371 536 592 589 734 725 757 752 747 700 691 669 725 8,589 2019‐20 555 393 528 560 618 605 759 746 783 767 787 707 699 678 8,631 2020‐21 539 383 558 551 584 635 626 781 771 798 808 795 714 708 8,712 2021‐22 539 384 543 581 575 600 656 643 806 786 841 815 802 723 8,756 2022‐23 539 385 544 566 607 590 620 674 665 822 828 848 823 812 8,783 2023‐24 2024‐25 539 539 386 387 545 546 567 568 590 591 622 606 609 643 637 627 697 658 677 710 865 713 835 873 856 843 833 867 8,721 8,631 * The birth figure for each row does not pertain to births during that year, but rather the births that occurred six years prior to the projected year. The average birth-to-kindergarten ratio is then applied to get
the projected kindergarten class.
FIGURE 30: 9-Year Average Progression Rates Used for OPTION 3—Low Projection
School Year 9‐Yr Avg. 2006 ‐2014 Birth‐K 0.685 K‐1 1‐2 2‐3 3‐4 4‐5 5‐6 6‐7 7‐8 8‐9 9‐10 1.429 1.042 1.043 1.025 1.032 1.028 1.032 1.018 1.053 1.008 10‐11 1.009 11‐12 1.011 28
The summarized enrollment projections for the
district and at each school level are presented on the
following pages. The three options are based on
differing adjustments and assumptions reviewed in
the previous section. However, the variation in birth
estimates will make no difference at the middle
school and high school levels since children born
over the next five years will not be old enough to
influence those projections within the ten year
timeframe.
The general trend for the district under all scenarios
is that enrollment will continue to grow most rapidly
over the next five to six years. Beyond that, the
medium and low options show growth winding down
and enrollment going back down the last couple of
years.
Figures 32, 33, and 34 isolate the projections
according to the grade levels of buildings in the
district. Changes have also been evaluated over the
five-year intervals of the primary and secondary
periods. Some of the levels will experience very
different trends from one five-year period to the next.
Option 2, the medium projection, is recommended as
the most realistic or likely result at this time. It
adjusts for the two factors that are believed to be
likely regardless of other trends—new housing
construction and more students filling existing rental
apartments. Other factors are left to recent trends
under Option 2.
FIGURE 31: Total District Enrollment Projections
Year 29
Op on 1—High Op on 2—Medium Op on 3—Low
Total Annual Students Change Total Annual Students Change Total Annual Students Change 2014‐15 (Current) 8,053 8,053 8,053 2015‐16 8,303 250 8,298 245 8,231 178 2016‐17 8,480 177 8,468 170 8,320 89 2017‐18 8,736 256 8,713 245 8,486 166 2018‐19 8,923 187 8,891 178 8,589 103 2019‐20 9,037 114 8,994 103 8,631 42 2020‐21 9,212 175 9,141 147 8,712 81 2021‐22 9,365 153 9,251 110 8,756 44 2022‐23 9,509 144 9,341 90 8,783 27 2023‐24 9,570 61 9,338 ‐3 8,721 ‐62 2024‐25 9,609 39 9,301 ‐37 8,631 ‐90 Total Change 2014‐2024 1,556 1,248 578 ENROLLMENT STUDY
FIGURE 32: Grades K-5 Elementary School Enrollment Projections
Year Op on 3—Low
Op on 1—High Op on 2—Medium Total Annual Students Change Total Annual Students Change Total Annual Students Change 2014‐15 (Current) 3,659 3,659 3,659 2015‐16 3,756 97 3,754 95 3,719 60 2016‐17 3,781 25 3,775 21 3,692 ‐27 2017‐18 3,783 2 3,772 ‐3 3,646 ‐46 2018‐19 3,732 ‐51 3,717 ‐55 3,547 ‐99 2019‐20 3,696 ‐36 3,677 ‐40 3,463 ‐84 37 18 ‐196 2020‐21 3,642 ‐54 3,600 ‐77 3,337 ‐126 2021‐22 3,682 40 3,602 2 3,339 2 2022‐23 3,699 17 3,571 ‐31 3,311 ‐28 2023‐24 3,768 69 3,580 9 3,320 9 2024‐25 3,860 92 3,602 22 3,340 20 5 Yr. Change from 2019‐20 to 2024‐25 164 ‐75 ‐123 10 Yr. Change Since
2014‐15
201
5 Yr. Change from 2014‐15 to 2019‐20 Elementary Schools
The elementary school level has been the fastest
growing section in the last five years, increasing by
519 students or over 16% during that time. The
increases were not driven by any increase in birth
activity, but rather the ratio of students entering the
district in kindergarten or first grade did rise during
that time. As discussed, more preschool children
going into public school instead of private along with
new students from existing multifamily homes and
more home sales helped to drive that ratio up.
‐57
‐319
least another year, but it will then come down again.
The long term projections show an overall decrease
after ten years under the medium and low options.
The projected declines come after some of the large
gains in recent grade classes move through the
system and enter middle school while smaller classes
replace them.
The high enrollment projection assumes that birth
activity goes up and this will start to bring growth
back to the smallest grades during the secondary
period after 2020.
Each of the projection options suggest that growth
will continue at the elementary school level for at
30
FIGURE 33: Grades 6-8 Middle School Enrollment Projections
Op on 1—High Year Total Annual Students Change Op on 2—Medium Op on 3—Low
Total Annual Students Change Total Annual Students Change 2014‐15 (Current) 1,874 1,874 1,874 2015‐16 1,877 3 1,876 2 1,871 ‐3 2016‐17 2,006 129 2,004 128 1,993 122 2017‐18 2,143 137 2,138 134 2,117 124 2018‐19 2,293 150 2,285 147 2,256 139 2019‐20 2,344 51 2,334 49 2,297 41 470 460 423 2020‐21 2,398 54 2,386 52 2,351 54 2021‐22 2,334 ‐64 2,319 ‐67 2,236 ‐115 2022‐23 2,311 ‐23 2,294 ‐25 2,161 ‐75 2023‐24 2,215 ‐96 2,196 ‐98 2,011 ‐150 2024‐25 2,199 ‐16 2,178 ‐18 1,995 ‐16 5 Yr. Change from 2019‐20 to 2024‐25 ‐145 ‐156 ‐302 10 Yr. Change Since 2014‐15
325
5 Yr. Change from 2014‐15 to 2019‐20 Middle Schools
The middle school level has also grown over the last five years, adding
217 students or 13% in that time, but not quite as much as the
elementary schools. These grade levels are poised for even higher
growth over the next 3-4 years as the larger elementary classes move
into middle school. However, this growth is not expected to continue
much beyond the primary period. All three projection scenarios are
consistent with the notion that these grade levels will decline starting
with the 2021 school year. Adjustments to the estimates of future births
will not affect enrollment at the Middle School since those children will
not have reached the sixth grade prior to 2025.
31
304
121
ENROLLMENT STUDY
FIGURE 34: Grades 9-12 High School Enrollment Projections
Op on 1—High Year Op on 3—Low
Op on 2—Medium Total Annual Students Change Total Annual Students Change Total Annual Change Students 2014‐15 (Current) 2,520 2,520 2,520 2015‐16 2,670 150 2,668 148 2,640 120 2016‐17 2,693 23 2,689 21 2,634 ‐6 2017‐18 2,810 117 2,803 114 2,723 89 2018‐19 2,898 88 2,888 85 2,786 63 2019‐20 2,997 99 2,984 96 2,871 85 477 464 351 2020‐21 3,171 174 3,155 171 3,025 154 2021‐22 3,349 178 3,330 175 3,182 157 2022‐23 3,499 150 3,477 147 3,311 129 2023‐24 3,587 88 3,562 85 3,390 79 2024‐25 3,550 ‐37 3,521 ‐41 3,296 ‐94 5 Yr. Change from 2019‐20 to 2024‐25 553 537 425 10 Yr. Change Since 2014‐15
1,030
5 Yr. Change from 2014‐15 to 2019‐20 1,001
High Schools
Enrollment at the high school level has also grown over the last five
years, but at a much slower rate than in the elementary and middle
school levels. Only 178 students were added in that time frame, which
was a gain of under 8%. Going back further shows that the high school
level was actually declining for the five years prior. Over the course of
the decade, the net change was only a gain of 52 students.
This will not be the case going forward. All three options show a period
of major growth in the years ahead driven by increased class sizes
already in the public school system. Adjustments made for housing
construction, more multifamily home students, and potential increases in
sales will also boost growth. Even the low option, which is based on an
776
increase in more students going to private school, shows substantial
growth since there are already students in the system driving the
increases.
32
No further adjustments to the projections on the
preceding pages are necessary at this time. The
background data and analysis throughout this report
forms a basis and understanding of how the numbers
should be interpreted. However, markets and trends
can always change in unexpected manners. This
section provides a further understanding of the
assumptions inherent with the progression model and
potential warning signs that would prompt a future
reconsideration of the projected enrollment figures.
Any district should continually monitor the data in
this report to keep apprised of how trends are
developing. A district as actively growing as the
LMSD should also plan on formal studies of
enrollment projections at least every three to four
years.
Housing Construction
All three projection options in this study incorporate
the same adjustment for new multifamily unit
construction that is expected over the next six years.
The adjustments were not altered for each option
because they represent our best understanding of
currently proposed projects and there is no cause to
alter them unless the prospects of a proposal change
in the future. Of course, all proposals are subject to
sudden changes in outlook due to the marketplace,
local government concerns, financial issues, or other
reasons.
Figure 35 provides the data that was used to make the
housing adjustments in the cohort progression
models. The factor used to determine the number of
public school students for most of the projects was
0.04 students per unit. This factor was based on
analysis of countywide figures for new multifamily
construction, which includes all school-age children
both public and private, and actual data for existing
multifamily developments within the LMSD. Two of
the projects were calculated with a larger factor of
0.12 based on their character and similar
developments within the LMSD. These factors are
33
estimates intended to reflect the overall impact from
the developments. One project may ultimately result
in more or less students, but the total for all
developments are expected to average out in the end.
Of course, if a project falls through or follows a
different timeline, those students attributed to that
project would not make an impact as scheduled.
The number of students added as an adjustment are
maintained throughout the ten year study period once
they enter the system, but they are added outside of
the progression rates so as not to compound the
influence of new construction.
Birth Patterns
Birth numbers are directly integrated into the cohort
progression model and the number of births can
significantly affect future projections, but any
changes today will not be felt for at least six years in
terms of the projections. The high projection model,
Option 1, uses higher birth estimates than the
medium and low models. Annual birth data should
be tracked to anticipate if one option may become
more likely during the secondary period. Live birth
data is available from the Pennsylvania Department
of Health, but the numbers should be correlated to
the school year rather than the calendar year.
Private school choice has been demonstrated to have
a significant impact on recent growth in the public
schools. The high and medium projection models
assume that the lower rate of private school
attendance is a reality that will continue into the
foreseeable future. The trend in more public students
stems from more people moving into the district for
its public school system as opposed to people moving
back and forth between public and private school for
economic or other reasons once they are already here.
However, the low projection model does show what
could happen if the trend is short-lived and students
return to private school in greater numbers. The
American Community Survey provides delayed data
on private schools averaged out over multiple years,
ENROLLMENT STUDY
FIGURE 35: Factors Used for Housing Adjustment Model Calculations
Project 131‐151 Rock Hill Road ES School Area Belmont Hills 600 Righters Ferry Cynwyd 335 Righters Ferry Cynwyd 150 Monument Road Cynwyd 601 & 615 Righters Ferry Cynwyd School Age Years Added to Pub‐
Children in lic School across Total Units Public School Grades 7 2017‐18 6 2018‐19 332 6 2016‐17 12 2017‐18 593 6 2018‐19 4 2017‐18 4 2018‐19 210 4 2018‐19 2019‐20 4 207 5 2019‐20 5 2020‐21 237 15 2017‐18 15 2018‐19 250 331 Penn Road* Penn Valley 112 Sibley Penn Valley 46 2 2016‐17 11‐15 E. Athens Avenue* Penn Valley 25 Palmer Seminary Penn Wynne 130 3 3 3 2015‐16 2016‐17 2017‐18 24 Cricket Avenue Penn Wynne 110 4 2017‐18 based on housing sales reaching 1,100 units per year
by 2017. The recommendation of this study is that
sales are more likely to remain stable at or slightly
above 1,000 units, in which case an adjustment is not
needed. The Planning Commission publishes annual
sales totals for each municipality in its “Median
Prices for Housing” report released in May.
Multifamily Student Ratio
Another adjustment made to all three projection
models was to acknowledge a continuing increase in
the number of public school students coming out of
existing multifamily developments, especially
apartment rentals. While the ratios of students per
unit are not large, they are increasing. The
adjustment considers an increase of 0.08 to 0.1 in the
number of students per unit. This number can be
monitored each year by comparing student address
records to the addresses of multifamily developments
as listed in the Multifamily Inventory found in the
appendix of this study. The adjustment recognizes an
additional 120 students from this trend, but if the
ratio proves to go higher an additional adjustment
would be needed.
* These projects were calculated with a factor of 0.12 students per unit. All other projects were calculated with
a factor of 0.04 students per unit.
so the district’s record of private school students
using district buses is going to provide more
immediate information on any change in enrollment
trends.
Charter school and homeschooling impacts are much
less substantial compared to private school, but these
counts should also be monitored in case there are any
unsuspected trends that would affect public school
choices.
Housing Sales Activity
The number of market-rate housing sales transactions
in the LMSD has increased over the last two years
and brought more gains in public school students as a
result. Regionally, the housing market overall is
improving, but still going through fits and starts. If
sales do increase further in the district, more
“churning” of households is expected with net gains
in public school students. The high projection model
accommodates the growth of 93 additional students
34
35
School Profiles
Part
School Profiles
Introduction
Belmont Hills Elementary School
Cynwyd Elementary School
Gladwyne Elementary School
Merion Elementary School
Penn Valley Elementary School
Penn Wynne Elementary School
Bala Cynwyd Middle School
Welsh Valley Middle School
Harriton High School
Lower Merion High School
37
Introduction
Application of the Cohort Progression Model to
individual school buildings is usually problematic
and not recommended. There are concerns regarding
the reduction in size of the student pool being
measured, but the main problem is a lack of birth
data below the municipal level. This problem was
overcome in the LMSD with acquisition of birth data
down to the census block group level. This allowed
for a good determination of births within each
elementary school boundary going back to 2003.
Much of the county data used in the housing activity
analyses is spatially recorded using GIS, so that it
may also be broken down at the school boundary
level. Adjustments included in the districtwide
models have been distributed across the individual
school levels and grades based on the actual data
related to each area.
It is fortunate to be able to develop models at the
building level, but confidence in the results at the
districtwide level should be higher than individual
building results. Therefore, these building
projections were adjusted by a single factor each year
to conform to the overall district totals in the models
from Part 3. The adjustments needed were minimal,
changing the final totals by only a few students from
what their unadjusted model would have indicated.
Elementary school projections have been limited to
five years due to the uncertainty with future births
and the smaller student pool, although assessments of
how the model would play out to ten years are
included in the narrative. Middle school and high
school projections are detailed out to ten years since
they are drawing from a previous grade that can be
more strongly estimated as opposed to birth rates six
years earlier.
Building projections under the Option 3 Low Model
were made using modified 6 year average
progression rates rather than the 9 year average used
at the district level due to a lack of some data at the
individual building level beyond 6 years. The
modified rates reflected the overall difference
between the 6 and 9 year averages seen at the district
level.
ENROLLMENT STUDY
FIGURE 36: Summary of Projected Enrollments Under Option 2 for Elementary Schools
Year Belmont Hills ES Cynwyd ES Gladwyne ES Merion ES Penn Valley ES Penn Wynne ES 2014‐15 (Actual) 468 543 738 568 660 682 2015‐16 472 542 735 600 700 704 2016‐17 474 550 740 605 694 713 2017‐18 487 543 714 602 706 720 2018‐19 485 529 715 599 685 704 2019‐20 475 526 722 603 651 700 7 ‐17 ‐16 35 ‐9 18 Total Change 2014‐2019 FIGURE 37: Summary of Projected Enrollments Under Option 2 for
Middle Schools
Year
Bala Cynwyd MS
FIGURE 38: Summary of Projected Enrollments Under Option 2 for
High Schools
Welsh Valley MS
Year
Harriton HS
Lower Merion HS
2014‐15 (Actual)
901
973
2014‐15 (Actual)
1,170
1,350
2015‐16
884
992
2015‐16
1,223
1,445
2016‐17
916
1,087
2016‐17
1,239
1,450
2017‐18
996
1,141
2017‐18
1,309
1,494
2018‐19
1,082
1,204
2018‐19
1,368
1,520
2019‐20
1,108
1,226
2019‐20
1,439
1,545
2020‐21
1,149
1,237
2020‐21
1,529
1,627
2021‐22
1,101
1,218
2021‐22
1,596
1,734
2022‐23
1,103
1,191
2022‐23
1,675
1,802
2023‐24
1,042
1,155
2023‐24
1,670
1,892
2024‐25
1,044
1,134
2024‐25
1,667
1,854
143
161
497
504
Total Change 2014‐
Total Change 2014‐
38
Belmont Hills Elementary School
births that occurred in 2010-11will provide additional
students beginning in 2016-17, but the departure of
the large 2014-15 fourth grade class in 2016-17 will
balance out many of those additions.
Growth in the Belmont Hills area has been moderate,
gaining 26 students since 2009. The medium
projection indicates that no major shifts are expected
in the next five years. Approximately 13 new
students will be added from the 131-151 Rock Hill
Road project in a few years (at all grade levels,
including middle and high school). The bump in
Major enrollment changes are not expected for this
area over the next ten years.
This area will continue to experience low levels of
new construction outside of the Rock Hill Road
project. If that project is successful, more
FIGURE 42: Number of Live Births in Belmont Hills ES
FIGURE 39: Belmont Hills Elementary School Enrollment by Grade, 2009-2014
Year multifamily unis could come into the Rock Hill Road
corridor in the future.
K 1 2 3 4 5 Total Change 2009‐10 63 72 74 78 77 78 442 0 2003‐04 78 2010‐11 61 82 76 81 78 83 461 19 2004‐05 70 2011‐12 40 89 85 79 78 80 451 ‐10 * 2012 and 2013 school year births are estimates based on a 3 year average and adjusted
to match county totals.
2005‐06 67 Source: MCPC and PA Dept. of Health
2012‐13 52 64 87 83 79 87 452 1 2006‐07 66 2013‐14 63 81 74 92 79 80 469 17 2007‐08 71 2014‐15 54 89 82 71 94 78 468 ‐1 School Year Births 2008‐09 83 Source: Lower Merion School District
2009‐10 64 FIGURE 40: Grade Progression Rates for Belmont Hills ES
2010‐11 91 2011‐12 58 2012‐13* 2013‐14* 68 72 School Year 6‐Yr Avg. 2009‐2014 Birth‐K 0.767 K‐1 1‐2 1.462 2‐3 1.042 1.019 3‐4 0.987 4‐5 1.043 FIGURE 41: Belmont Hills ES Enrollment Projections
Year FIGURE 43: Housing Activity in Belmont Hills ES
Total Annual Students Change Total Annual Students Change Total Annual Students Change Year New Units Exis ng Built Units Sold % of Total Housing Units 2014‐15 (Current) 468 468 468 2009 1 90 2.4% 2015‐16 473 5 472 4 468 0 2016‐17 475 2 474 2 462 ‐6 2010 2011 2 5 107 102 2.8% 2.7% 2017‐18 489 14 487 13 470 8 2012 2 132 3.4% 2018‐19 488 ‐1 485 ‐2 462 ‐8 2013 3 139 3.6% 2019‐20 478 ‐10 475 ‐10 446 ‐16 Total 13 570 14.9% 10 7 ‐22 Total Change 2014‐2019 39
ENROLLMENT STUDY
Cynwyd Elementary School
This projected decline is in spite of the amount of
new multifamily units expected in the next five years.
Over 1,200 new units are possible under four
proposed developments, but these projects are midrise luxury apartments located along the waterfront
and near City Avenue. They will not have strong
family appeal, but the model adjusts for 54 potential
students (at all grade levels, including middle and
high school) through 2020.
Cynwyd Elementary School has had a couple growth
spurts in 2010-11 and 2014-15 resulting in a net gain
of 64 students since 2009. However, enrollment is
expected to decline in the next five years. Birth
activity is down from ten years ago, which will bring
smaller kindergarten and first grade classes than what
the area has seen in recent years.
FIGURE 47: Number of Live Births in Cynwyd ES
FIGURE 44: Cynwyd Elementary School Enrollment by Grade, 2009-2014
Year The long term projection out to ten years suggests
that enrollment will stay down closer to 500 students
unless birth activity increases.
K 1 2 3 4 5 Total Change 2009‐10 55 80 78 89 94 83 479 7 2003‐04 2010‐11 57 82 83 84 98 98 502 23 2004‐05 88 2011‐12 70 86 90 84 86 96 512 10 2005‐06 116 2012‐13 66 98 86 93 85 88 516 4 2006‐07 87 2013‐14 56 92 96 85 93 86 508 ‐8 2007‐08 85 2014‐15 71 86 102 104 85 95 543 35 School Year Births 100 2008‐09 82 Source: Lower Merion School District
2009‐10 72 FIGURE 45: Grade Progression Rates for Cynwyd ES
2010‐11 83 2011‐12 84 2012‐13* 2013‐14* 77 81 School Year 6‐Yr Avg. 2009‐2014 Birth‐K 0.681 K‐1 1‐2 1.464 2‐3 1.044 1.038 3‐4 1.034 4‐5 1.009 FIGURE 46: Cynwyd ES Enrollment Projections
Year * 2012 and 2013 school year births are estimates based on a 3 year average and adjusted
Source: MCPC and PA Dept. of Health
FIGURE 48: Housing Activity in Cynwyd ES
Total Annual Students Change Total Annual Students Change Total Annual Students Change Year New Units Exis ng Built Units Sold % of Total Housing Units 2014‐15 (Current) 543 543 543 2009 9 77 2.5% 2015‐16 542 ‐1 542 ‐1 537 ‐6 2016‐17 551 9 550 8 539 2 2010 2011 0 2 77 99 2.5% 3.2% 2017‐18 545 ‐6 543 ‐7 526 ‐13 2012 2 113 3.6% 2018‐19 531 ‐14 529 ‐14 506 ‐20 2013 1 152 4.9% 2019‐20 529 ‐2 526 ‐3 497 ‐9 Total 14 518 16.6% Total Change 2014‐2019 ‐14 ‐17 ‐46 Source: Montgomery County Planning Commission
40
Gladwyne Elementary School
The Gladwyne Elementary School has grown at a
fairly drastic rate since 2009, gaining 179 students in
that time. The progression rates are very high for
each grade level over the last six years indicating
more students migrating into the school beyond
kindergarten and first grade. Home sales have gone
up considerably and this area has had more
construction of single-family detached and attached
units than other areas, which also can bring new
students. The shift in fewer students going to private
school could be having a bigger effect in this area as
well.
observation of current class sizes. The 3rd-5th
grades are very high while the younger grades are
lower in comparison. As the older classes proceed to
middle school, they will be replaced by smaller
classes bringing enrollment back down.
All of the projection models call for an immediate
end to this growth. Support for this is found in the
lower birth rates the last few years and an
The long term projections under Option 2 indicate
that enrollment should stay down below 700 students
through 2024.
FIGURE 52: Number of Live Births in Gladwyne ES
FIGURE 49: Gladwyne Elementary School Enrollment by Grade, 2009-2014
Year K 1 2 3 4 5 Total Change 2009‐10 80 95 89 107 83 105 559 23 2003‐04 2010‐11 86 109 105 97 109 94 600 41 2004‐05 99 2011‐12 90 107 119 107 101 109 633 33 2005‐06 116 2012‐13 66 131 120 129 120 109 675 42 2006‐07 123 2013‐14 71 110 132 128 140 120 701 26 2007‐08 90 2014‐15 90 103 112 145 137 151 738 37 School Year Births 118 2008‐09 112 Source: Lower Merion School District
2009‐10 104 FIGURE 50: Grade Progression Rates for Gladwyne ES
2010‐11 110 2011‐12 92 2012‐13* 2013‐14* 98 103 School Year 6‐Yr Avg. 2009‐2014 Birth‐K 0.742 K‐1 1‐2 1.437 2‐3 1.081 1.071 3‐4 1.067 4‐5 1.052 FIGURE 51: Gladwyne ES Enrollment Projections
Year * 2012 and 2013 school year births are estimates based on a 3 year average and adjusted
Source: MCPC and PA Dept. of Health
FIGURE 53: Housing Activity in Gladwyne ES
Total Annual Students Change Total Annual Students Change Total Annual Students Change Year New Units Exis ng Built Units Sold % of Total Housing Units 2014‐15 (Current) 738 738 738 2009 17 150 2.2% 2015‐16 736 ‐2 735 ‐3 729 ‐9 2016‐17 741 5 740 5 724 ‐5 2010 2011 19 19 196 182 2.9% 2.7% 2017‐18 715 ‐26 714 ‐26 690 ‐34 2012 35 241 3.6% 2018‐19 717 2 715 1 682 ‐8 2013 25 259 3.8% 2019‐20 725 8 722 7 680 ‐2 Total 115 1028 15.3% Total Change 2014‐2019 ‐13 ‐16 ‐58 41
ENROLLMENT STUDY
Merion Elementary School
Birth activity has been fairly consistent since 2005
and this area has seen lower sales activity than some
other school areas. Very little home construction is
occurring and no major proposals are being
considered. These trends all support the stability of
enrollment at Merion shown in the medium
projection. Over the long term, enrollment should
hover just under 600 students under Option 2.
The Merion Elementary School has grown by 78
students since 2009 with some inconsistent jumps in
enrollment. The projections show that the school is
in for another substantial increase in 2015-16, but
will remain stable following next year. The growth
in 2015 is coming from the departure of an
undersized 5th grade class in 2014-15.
FIGURE 57: Number of Live Births in Merion ES
FIGURE 54: Merion Elementary School Enrollment by Grade, 2009-2014
Year K 1 2 3 4 5 Total Change 2009‐10 53 86 87 94 88 82 490 14 2003‐04 91 2010‐11 68 69 88 90 90 90 495 5 2004‐05 117 2011‐12 68 97 75 95 95 100 530 35 * 2012 and 2013 school year births are estimates based on a 3 year average and adjusted
2012‐13 82 97 107 81 89 93 549 19 2006‐07 101 2013‐14 73 100 102 105 80 89 549 0 2007‐08 106 2014‐15 75 94 103 114 102 80 568 19 School Year Births 2008‐09 97 Source: Lower Merion School District
2009‐10 100 FIGURE 55: Grade Progression Rates for Merion ES
2010‐11 100 2011‐12 103 2012‐13* 2013‐14* 97 102 School Year 6‐Yr Avg. 2009‐2014 Birth‐K 0.684 K‐1 1‐2 1.409 2‐3 1.055 1.056 3‐4 0.991 4‐5 1.027 FIGURE 56: Merion ES Enrollment Projections
Year FIGURE 58: Housing Activity in Merion ES
Total Annual Students Change Total Annual Students Change Total Annual Students Change Year New Units Exis ng Built Units Sold % of Total Housing Units 2014‐15 (Current) 568 568 568 2009 2 89 2.7% 2015‐16 600 32 600 32 594 26 2016‐17 606 6 605 5 592 ‐2 2010 2011 0 1 76 89 2.3% 2.7% 2017‐18 603 ‐3 602 ‐3 581 ‐11 2012 1 94 2.9% 2018‐19 601 ‐2 599 ‐3 571 ‐10 2013 0 96 2.9% 2019‐20 606 5 603 4 567 ‐4 Total 4 444 13.5% 38 35 ‐1 Total Change 2014‐2019 Source: Montgomery County Planning Commission
42
Penn Valley Elementary School
expected to slow down growth and the departure of
the currently large class sizes will ultimately bring
enrollment back to under the current total by 2019
according to the Option 2 projection.
Penn Valley Elementary School has grown each year
since 2009, adding 149 students in that time. The
area had a surge in birth activity from 2004-2007
which has fueled growth over the last five years. The
school also has relatively high progression rates for
its birth-kindergarten and kindergarten-1st grade
transitions. A gradual lowering of birth activity is
This area does have a few multifamily projects being
proposed and they are viewed as having a bit more of
an effect on school-age children than some of the
other developments studied. The projects are
Home sales have not risen as dramatically as in other
areas and remain a relatively low percentage of total
housing units. The long term projection for Option 2
holds enrollment within the 650-670 range through
2024.
FIGURE 62: Number of Live Births in Penn Valley ES
FIGURE 59: Penn Valley Elementary School Enrollment by Grade, 2009-2014
Year expected to bring about 35 students into the Penn
Valley area by 2018.
K 1 2 3 4 5 Total Change 2009‐10 63 96 89 84 95 84 511 41 2003‐04 76 2010‐11 68 89 97 93 89 88 524 13 2004‐05 94 2011‐12 69 104 94 108 109 100 584 60 * 2012 and 2013 school year births are estimates based on a 3 year average and adjusted
2009‐10 97 FIGURE 60: Grade Progression Rates for Penn Valley ES
2010‐11 73 2011‐12 95 2012‐13* 2013‐14* 84 89 School Year 6‐Yr Avg. 2009‐2014 Birth‐K 0.792 K‐1 1‐2 1.509 2‐3 1.020 1.059 3‐4 1.081 4‐5 1.049 FIGURE 61: Penn Valley ES Enrollment Projections
Year FIGURE 63: Housing Activity in Penn Valley ES
Total Annual Students Change Total Annual Students Change Total Annual Students Change Year New Units Exis ng Built Units Sold % of Total Housing Units 2014‐15 (Current) 660 660 660 2009 12 115 2.3% 2015‐16 700 40 700 40 693 33 2016‐17 695 ‐5 694 ‐6 679 ‐14 2010 2011 9 3 120 121 2.4% 2.4% 2017‐18 708 13 706 12 683 4 2012 4 130 2.6% 2018‐19 688 ‐20 685 ‐21 655 ‐28 2013 1 167 3.3% 2019‐20 654 ‐34 651 ‐34 612 ‐43 Total 29 653 13.0% ‐6 ‐9 ‐48 Total Change 2014‐2019 43
ENROLLMENT STUDY
Penn Wynne Elementary School
recent years. Its other progression ratios are not as
high as some other areas though. This could be due
to more families coming into the area with children at
a younger age than kindergarten or having children
after moving. Housing sales are very strong in Penn
Wynne with the highest percentage of housing units
selling.
The Penn Wynne Elementary School has experienced
rapid growth just within the last couple of years,
gaining 124 students since 2010. Birth activity
affecting the recent classes has not declined in Penn
Wynne like it has in some areas and it should remain
consistent. Penn Wynne does have the highest birthkindergarten ratio with larger kindergarten classes in
FIGURE 67: Number of Live Births in Penn Wynne ES
FIGURE 64: Penn Wynne Elementary School Enrollment by Grade, 2009-2014
Year K 1 2009‐10 77 89 2010‐11 71 2011‐12 2 The current growth should slow down and begin to
reverse somewhat with overall enrollment only going
up 18 by 2019-20, although it peaks at 720 in 201718 under Option 2. In the long term, enrollment is
expected to stabilize under 700 students through
2024.
3 4 5 Total Change 104 99 96 93 558 ‐7 2003‐04 105 97 90 99 107 94 558 0 2004‐05 114 76 102 93 91 99 115 576 18 * 2012 and 2013 school year births are estimates based on a 3 year average and adjusted
2009‐10 106 FIGURE 65: Grade Progression Rates for Penn Wynne ES
2010‐11 112 2011‐12 104 2012‐13* 2013‐14* 102 108 School Year 6‐Yr Avg. 2009‐2014 Birth‐K 0.807 K‐1 1‐2 1.317 2‐3 1.032 1.014 3‐4 1.021 4‐5 1.035 FIGURE 66: Penn Wynne ES Enrollment Projections
Year FIGURE 68: Housing Activity in Penn Wynne ES
Total Annual Students Change Total Annual Students Change Total Annual Students Change Year New Units Exis ng Built Units Sold % of Total Housing Units 2014‐15 (Current) 682 682 682 2009 0 137 3.4% 2015‐16 705 23 704 22 697 15 2016‐17 714 9 713 9 697 0 2010 2011 0 0 133 134 3.3% 3.3% 2017‐18 722 8 720 7 696 ‐1 2012 1 154 3.8% 2018‐19 706 ‐16 704 ‐16 671 ‐25 2013 13 163 4.1% 2019‐20 704 ‐2 700 ‐4 659 ‐12 Total 14 721 17.9% 22 18 ‐23 Total Change 2014‐2019 Source: Montgomery County Planning Commission
44
Bala Cynwyd Middle School
still add more students each year from new students
coming into the district.
The Bala Cynwyd Middle School had been growing
each year up until 2014, with a total of 86 students
added since 2009 gaining 124 students since 2010.
The major factor influencing middle school growth is
the prior year’s 5th grade class coming out of the
elementary schools in BCMS’s area. The
progression rates show that all middle school grades
Enrollment will dip down next year based on the
departure of an above average sized 8th grade class.
However, more growth will follow over the next five
years as the recent increases at the elementary
schools, especially Penn Wynne ES, move into
middle school grades. Option 2 shows a gain of over
FIGURE 69: Bala Cynwyd MS Enrollment by Grade, 2009-2014
Year 6 7 8 2009‐10 283 265 267 815 16 2010‐11 268 295 268 831 16 2011‐12 284 274 307 865 34 2012‐13 318 292 283 893 28 2013‐14 290 332 300 922 29 2014‐15 280 299 322 901 ‐21 Source: Lower Merion School District
FIGURE 70: Grade Progression Rates for Bala Cynwyd MS
5‐6 6‐7 7‐8 6‐Yr Avg. 2009‐2014 1.025 1.035 1.022 FIGURE 71: Housing Activity in Bala Cynwyd MS
Year % of Total New Units Exis ng Housing Built Units Sold Units 2009 2010 11 0 303 286 2.9% 2.7% 2011 3 322 3.1% 2012 4 361 3.5% 2013 13 411 3.9% Total 31 1,683 16.1% Source: Montgomery County Planning Commission
45
FIGURE 72: Bala Cynwyd MS Enrollment Projections
Total Change School Year 200 students by 2019. Enrollment will decline
during the second half of the decade but all three
options still show an increase. Note that under either
option, growth will not be avoided in the next six
years due to public school increases that have already
occurred.
Year Op on 1—High Op on 2—Medium Op on 3—Low
Total Annual Students Change Total Annual Students Change Total Annual Students Change 2014‐15 (Current) 901 901 901 2015‐16 885 ‐16 884 ‐17 882 ‐19 2016‐17 918 33 916 32 911 29 2017‐18 999 81 996 80 987 76 2018‐19 1,085 86 1,082 86 1,068 81 2019‐20 1,113 28 1,108 26 1,090 22 2020‐21 1,156 43 1,149 41 1,132 42 2021‐22 1,108 ‐48 1,101 ‐48 1,063 ‐69 2022‐23 1,112 4 1,103 2 1,041 ‐22 2023‐24 1,051 ‐61 1,042 ‐61 954 ‐87 2024‐25 1,054 3 1,044 2 956 2 153 143 55 Total Change 2014‐2024 Welsh Valley Middle School
school grades still add more students each year from
new students coming into the district.
The Welsh Valley Middle School has grown each
year since 2009, with a total of 174 students added in
that time. The major factor influencing middle
school growth is the prior year’s 5th grade class
coming out of the elementary schools in WVMS’s
area. The progression rates show that all middle
Enrollment will continue to grow over the next five
years as the recent increases at the elementary
schools move into middle school grades. Option 2
shows a gain of over 250 students by 2019.
Enrollment will decline during the second half of the
decade but all three options still show an increase.
FIGURE 73: Welsh Valley MS Enrollment by Grade, 2009-2014
Year 6 7 8 2009‐10 279 249 271 799 15 2010‐11 281 289 259 829 30 2011‐12 280 290 293 863 34 2012‐13 312 301 302 915 52 2013‐14 313 330 301 944 29 2014‐15 330 305 338 973 29 Source: Lower Merion School District
FIGURE 74: Grade Progression Rates for Welsh Valley MS
5‐6 6‐7 7‐8 6‐Yr Avg. 2009‐2014 1.039 1.033 1.022 FIGURE 75: Housing Activity in Welsh Valley MS
Year FIGURE 76: Welsh Valley MS Enrollment Projections
Total Change School Year % of Total New Units Exis ng Housing Built Units Sold Units 2009 30 355 2.3% 2010 2011 30 27 423 405 2.7% 2.6% 2012 41 503 3.2% 2013 29 565 3.6% Total 157 2,251 14.4% Source: Montgomery County Planning Commission
Note that under either option, growth will not be
avoided in the next six years due to public school
increases that have already occurred.
Year Op on 1—High Op on 2—Medium Op on 3—Low
Total Annual Students Change Total Annual Students Change Total Annual Students Change 2014‐15 (Current) 973 973 973 2015‐16 993 20 992 19 989 16 2016‐17 1,089 96 1,087 95 1,081 92 2017‐18 1,144 55 1,141 54 1,130 49 2018‐19 1,208 64 1,204 63 1,188 58 2019‐20 1,231 23 1,226 22 1,206 18 2020‐21 1,243 12 1,237 11 1,218 12 2021‐22 1,225 ‐18 1,218 ‐19 1,173 ‐45 2022‐23 1,199 ‐26 1,191 ‐27 1,120 ‐53 2023‐24 1,164 ‐35 1,155 ‐36 1,057 ‐63 2024‐25 1,145 ‐19 1,134 ‐21 1,039 18 172 161 66 Total Change 2014‐2024 LOWER MERION SCHOOL DISTRICT
Harriton High School
districts will see their high school grades start to
decline, but the LMSD continues to bring in new
students at this level for a net gain.
The Harriton High School grew rapidly for four years
from 2009 to 2012 and then remained steady. The
major factor influencing high school growth is the
prior year’s 8th grade class coming out of the Welsh
Valley MS area. The progression rates show that all
high school grades still add more students each year
from new students coming into the district. Many
Enrollment will grow at a high rate over the next
eight years as a result of the growth that has already
occurred at smaller grade levels. Student choice
zones and the International Baccalaureate program
have been accounted for in these projections.
FIGURE 80: Harriton HS Enrollment Projections
FIGURE 77: Harriton HS Enrollment by Grade, 2009-2014
Year 9 10 11 12 Total Change 2009‐10 292 200 199 205 896 98 2010‐11 277 307 214 213 1,011 115 2011‐12 280 283 312 211 1,086 75 2012‐13 299 282 296 311 1,188 102 2013‐14 294 308 289 294 1,185 ‐2 2014‐15 295 283 300 292 1,170 ‐15 Source: Lower Merion School District
FIGURE 78: Grade Progression Rates for Harriton HS
School Year 8‐9 9‐10 6‐Yr Avg. 2009‐2014 1.025 1.018 10‐11 1.026 FIGURE 79: Housing Activity in Harriton HS
Year % of Total New Units Exis ng Housing Built Units Sold Units 2009 30 355 2.3% 2010 2011 30 27 423 405 2.7% 2.6% 2012 41 503 3.2% 2013 29 565 3.6% Total 157 2,251 14.4% Source: Montgomery County Planning Commission
47
11‐12 1.011 Year Op on 1—High Op on 2—Medium Op on 3—Low
Total Annual Students Change Total Annual Students Change Total Annual Students Change 2014‐15 (Current) 1,170 1,170 1,170 2015‐16 1,224 54 1,223 53 1,211 41 2016‐17 1,241 17 1,239 16 1,214 3 2017‐18 1,313 72 1,309 70 1,271 57 2018‐19 1,373 60 1,368 59 1,319 48 2019‐20 1,445 72 1,439 71 1,383 64 2020‐21 1,536 91 1,529 90 1,464 81 2021‐22 1,604 68 1,596 67 1,523 59 2022‐23 1,685 81 1,675 79 1,594 71 2023‐24 1,682 ‐3 1,670 ‐5 1,589 ‐5 2024‐25 1,680 ‐2 1,667 ‐3 1,558 ‐31 510 497 388 Total Change 2014‐2024 A Note About Choice Zones:
The LMSD offers 8th grade students from Welsh Valley MS living within a specified boundary
surrounding Lower Merion High School the opportunity to attend Lower Merion HS instead of
Harriton. The progression rates used for Harriton HS account for this effect. The rate observed
for the grade 8-9 transition (1.025) would be considerably higher if not for some Welsh Valley
students choosing to attend Lower Merion HS.
The choice zone was expanded in 2014, so an adjustment was made to the projections under the
assumption that 40% of the students in the expanded choice zone would choose to attend Lower
Merion High School.
Lower Merion High School
students coming into the district. Many districts will
see their high school grades start to decline, but the
LMSD continues to bring in new students at this
level for a net gain.
The Lower Merion High School was declining going
back as far as the 2006-07 school year, but started to
increase beginning in 2012. The major factor
influencing high school growth is the prior year’s 8th
grade class coming out of the Bala Cynwyd MS area.
The progression rates show that all high school
grades still add more students each year from new
Enrollment at Lower Merion HS will grow at a high
rate over the next nine years as a result of the growth
that has already occurred at smaller grade levels.
Student choice zones and the International
FIGURE 81: Lower Merion HS Enrollment by Grade, 2009-2014
Year 9 10 11 12 310 328 364 401 1,403 ‐67 2010‐11 307 313 333 378 1,331 ‐72 2011‐12 293 306 323 338 1,260 ‐71 2012‐13 357 297 305 328 1,287 27 2013‐14 320 369 298 313 1,300 13 2014‐15 347 327 371 305 1,350 50 Source: Lower Merion School District
FIGURE 82: Grade Progression Rates for Lower Merion HS
8‐9 9‐10 6‐Yr Avg. 2009‐2014 1.128 1.016 10‐11 1.008 FIGURE 83: Housing Activity in Lower Merion HS
Year % of Total New Units Exis ng Housing Built Units Sold Units 2009 11 303 2.9% 2010 2011 0 3 286 322 2.7% 3.1% 2012 4 361 3.5% 2013 13 411 3.9% Total 31 1,683 16.1% Source: Montgomery County Planning Commission
FIGURE 84: Lower Merion HS Enrollment Projections
Total Change 2009‐10 School Year Baccalaureate program have been accounted for in
these projections.
11‐12 1.021 Year Op on 1—High Op on 2—Medium Op on 3—Low
Total Annual Students Change Total Annual Students Change Total Annual Students Change 2014‐15 (Current) 1,350 1,350 1,350 2015‐16 1,446 96 1,445 95 1,430 80 2016‐17 1,452 6 1,450 5 1,421 ‐9 2017‐18 1,497 45 1,494 44 1,452 31 2018‐19 1,525 28 1,520 26 1,467 15 2019‐20 1,552 27 1,545 25 1,489 22 2020‐21 1,636 84 1,627 82 1,561 72 2021‐22 1,745 109 1,734 107 1,659 98 2022‐23 1,814 69 1,802 68 1,718 59 2023‐24 1,905 91 1,892 90 1,801 83 2024‐25 1,869 ‐36 1,854 ‐38 1,738 ‐63 519 504 388 Total Change 2014‐2024 A Note About Choice Zones:
The LMSD offers 8th grade students from Welsh Valley MS living within a specified boundary
surrounding Lower Merion High School the opportunity to attend Lower Merion HS instead of
Harriton. The progression rates used for Lower Merion HS account for this effect. The rate
observed for the grade 8-9 transition (1.128) would be considerably lower if not for some Welsh
Valley students choosing to attend Lower Merion HS
The choice zone was expanded in 2014, so an adjustment was made to the projections under the
assumption that 40% of the students in the expanded choice zone would choose to attend Lower
Merion High School.
48
49
Appendix
Part
Appendix.1 Multifamily Inventory
All multifamily developments with 20+ units and the number of enrolled LMSD students in 2006, 2010, and 2014.
Name
Oak Hill/Tower at Oak Hill
Green Hill
191 Condominium
Wynnewood Park Apartments
Thomas Wynne Apartments
Sutton Terrace
Brynwood Apartments
Corinthian
Fairmont
Twelve Nineteen Condominium
Suburban Court Apartments
Wynnewood House
Whitehall Apartments
Oakwynne House Apartments
Wynnewood Plaza Condominium
Latch's Lane Condominiums
Conwyn Arms
Montgomery Court
Trianon Apartments
Tedwyn Apartments
Benson House
429 Apartments
The Mermont
Wyndon Apartments
Montgomery Plaza
101 Apartments
Mayflower Square
Saint George's Apartments
Narberth Hall Apartments
Hampshires at Haverford Condos
Llanfair House Apartments
Mermont Plaza
Grays Lane House
The Greenhouse
Dunfern Apartments
Thornbrook Manor Apartments
Merion Court Apartments
Hunter House
Bryn Mawr Gables
One Montgomery Avenue
Lakeside Apartments
51
Unit Type
Multifamily Condo
Multifamily Condo
Multifamily Condo
Multifamily Rental
Multifamily Rental
Multifamily Condo
Multifamily Rental
Multifamily Condo
Multifamily Condo
Multifamily Condo
Multifamily Rental
Multifamily Rental
Multifamily Rental
Multifamily Rental
Multifamily Condo
Multifamily Condo
Multifamily Rental
Multifamily Rental
Multifamily Rental
Multifamily Rental
Multifamily Condo
Multifamily Rental
Multifamily Rental
Multifamily Rental
Multifamily Rental
Multifamily Rental
Multifamily Condo
Multifamily Rental
Multifamily Rental
Multifamily Condo
Multifamily Rental
Multifamily Rental
Multifamily Condo
Multifamily Condo
Multifamily Rental
Multifamily Rental
Multifamily Rental
Multifamily Condo
Multifamily Rental
Multifamily Rental
Multifamily Rental
Street Address
1637 Oakwood Drive
1001 City Avenue
191 Presidential Blvd
150 E Wynnewood Rd
200 N Wynnewood Ave
50 Belmont Ave
250 E Wynnewood Rd
190 Presidential Blvd
41 Conshohocken State Rd
1219 W Wynnewood Rd
113 Cricket Ave
300 E Lancaster Ave
410 Lancaster Ave
1209 W Wynnewood Rd
346 E Lancaster Ave
40 Old Lancaster Rd
830 W Montgomery Ave
214 Price Ave
625 E Lancaster Ave
120 E Montgomery Ave
101 Mill Creek Rd
119 Mill Creek Rd
300 N Essex Ave
104 Woodside Rd
17 Llanfair Rd
901 Montgomery Ave
100 Grays Lane & Montgomery Avenue
19 Rock Hill Rd
10 Montgomery Ave
118 Montgomery Ave
1 Montgomery Ave
170 Lakeside Rd
Date
Units Built
753
1969
543
1960
228
1963
224
1945
215
1950
172
1974
150
1950
108
2006
100
1976
96
1976
95
1926
88
1956
88
1926
84
1961
83
1945
81
1948
80
1954
73
1940
73
1976
72
1959
67
1977
66
1940
66
1940
65
1948
64
1964
62
1963
62
1952
60
1930
60
1929
59
1939
58
1966
55
52
1975
50
1976
50
1924
50
1939
49
1954
49
1967
48
1930
46
1964
45
1975
Students/
unit
0.05
0.04
0.04
0.13
0.17
0.00
0.21
0.03
0.00
0.02
0.05
0.03
0.02
0.06
0.06
0.09
0.15
0.25
0.04
0.00
0.00
0.05
0.00
0.18
0.13
0.18
0.00
0.08
0.12
0.00
0.05
0.13
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.00
0.35
0.00
0.00
0.20
0.40
2014-15
Student
Count
41
24
9
30
37
0
32
3
0
2
5
3
2
5
5
7
12
18
3
0
0
3
0
12
8
11
0
5
7
0
3
7
1
1
1
0
17
0
0
9
18
2010-11
Student
Count
21
13
3
44
17
0
29
6
0
2
0
3
1
1
3
6
11
13
0
0
0
8
0
5
4
8
0
1
3
1
1
3
0
1
2
0
9
3
0
10
7
2006-07
Student
Count
19
9
3
30
12
2
24
1
0
1
0
1
0
0
1
5
8
10
0
0
0
9
0
3
10
7
0
3
1
0
0
3
0
0
1
0
9
1
0
5
7
ENROLLMENT STUDY
Name
Argyle Court Apartments
Churchill Court
Cynwyd Court
Edgehill Court Apartments
101 Cheswold Lane Condominiums
Pennmount Apartments
Wynmont
Merion Manor
Yorklynne Manor
Hardie Apartments
Summit Court Apartments
Pennswood Condos
Waterford Condos
Haverford Apartments
Cricket Club
Bryn Mawr Court
37 East Montgomery Condominiums
(NONE)
Bernola Apartments
Narberth Station Apartments
Sevilla Court
Beechwood Apartments
Breton Hall Apartments
Haverford Gables Apartments
Essex Manor Apartments
Cambridge Square
Unit Type
Multifamily Rental
Multifamily Condo
Multifamily Condo
Multifamily Rental
Multifamily Condo
Multifamily Rental
Multifamily Condo
Multifamily Condo
Multifamily Condo
Multifamily Rental
Multifamily Rental
Multifamily Condo
Multifamily Condo
Multifamily Rental
Multifamily Condo
Multifamily Rental
Multifamily Condo
Multifamily Rental
Multifamily Rental
Multifamily Rental
Multifamily Rental
Multifamily Rental
Multifamily Rental
Multifamily Rental
Multifamily Rental
Multifamily Condo
Street Address
126 Argyle Rd
25 Old Lancaster Rd
101 Cheswold Ln
34 W Montgomery Ave
1334 Montgomery Ave
212 Idris Dr
415 City Ave
1 Oakland Ter
101 Summit Ln
383 Lakeside Rd
411 Lancaster Ave
37 E Montgomery Ave
859 Old Lancaster Rd
87 Rittenhouse Pl
280 Haverford Ave
509 Conway Ave
117 N Essex Ave
205 N Essex Ave
120 Sibley Ave
Date
Units Built
44
1920
42
1920
38
1948
37
1960
33
1982
32
1965
32
1960
31
1925
31
1926
28
1925
28
1952
27
1960
27
1989
26
1920
25
1972
25
1922
24
1965
24
1960
24
1900
24
1929
24
1940
24
1956
24
1961
23
1920
23
1962
21
2007
Coach House
Essex House
Ardglen Apartments
Llanberris Apartments
La Chanterelle
Llanalew Condos
Mansard House
Llanfair Court Apartments
Merioneth Apartments
Multifamily Condo
Multifamily Condo
Multifamily Rental
Multifamily Rental
Multifamily Condo
Multifamily Condo
Multifamily Condo
Multifamily Rental
Multifamily Rental
1011 W Mongtomery Ave and 100-108 N.
226 Essex Ave
18 W Montgomery Ave
414 Old Lancaster Rd
100 Llanalew Rd
200 E Montgomery Ave
20 W Montgomery Ave
21
21
21
21
20
20
20
20
20
1957
1973
1962
1950
1982
1977
1972
1960
1962
2014-15
Student
Count
2010-11
Student
Count
2006-07
Student
Count
Students/
unit
0.05
0.00
0.13
0.11
0.03
0.28
0.03
0.00
0.16
0.04
0.36
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.04
0.00
0.08
0.17
0.00
0.08
0.29
0.00
0.00
0.13
0.00
0.05
2
0
5
4
1
9
1
0
5
1
10
0
0
0
1
0
2
4
0
2
7
0
0
3
0
1
2
0
0
2
0
2
2
0
7
0
7
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
6
6
1
0
3
0
0
0
1
1
3
2
4
2
0
3
1
5
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
3
5
0
1
1
0
0
0.05
0.00
0.00
0.76
0.05
0.05
0.00
0.30
0.40
1
0
0
16
1
1
0
6
8
0
0
0
8
0
0
0
8
2
1
0
0
8
0
2
0
11
1
52
Appendix.2 Individual Building
Projection Datasheets
A. BELMONT HILLS
ELEMENTARY SCHOOL
53
BIRTHS 64 91 58 68 72 BELMONT HILLS ES OPTION 1 PROJECTED ENROLLMENT
KDG 1 2 3 4 49 79 93 84 70 70 72 82 95 83 46 103 75 84 94 54 67 107 77 84 57 78 69 109 76 5 TOTAL STUDENTS 473 98 475 73 489 87 488 98 87 478 YEAR 2015‐16 2016‐17 2017‐18 2018‐19 2019‐20 BIRTHS 64 91 58 68 72 BELMONT HILLS ES OPTION 2 PROJECTED ENROLLMENT
KDG 1 2 3 4 49 79 93 84 70 70 72 82 94 82 45 102 75 84 94 54 66 107 77 83 57 77 69 109 76 5 TOTAL STUDENTS 472 98 474 73 487 86 485 98 87 475 YEAR 2015‐16 2016‐17 2017‐18 2018‐19 2019‐20 BIRTHS 64 91 58 68 72 BELMONT HILLS ES OPTION 3 PROJECTED ENROLLMENT
KDG 1 2 3 4 45 79 92 84 70 65 67 82 94 82 42 95 70 84 93 50 62 99 72 83 53 72 64 101 70 5 TOTAL STUDENTS 468 98 462 72 470 86 462 97 86 446 YEAR 2015‐16 2016‐17 2017‐18 2018‐19 2019‐20 ENROLLMENT STUDY
B. CYNWYD
ELEMENTARY SCHOOL
YEAR 2015‐16 2016‐17 2017‐18 2018‐19 2019‐20 YEAR 2015‐16 2016‐17 2017‐18 2018‐19 2019‐20 YEAR 2015‐16 2016‐17 2017‐18 2018‐19 2019‐20 BIRTHS 72 83 84 77 81 CYNWYD ES OPTION 1 PROJECTED ENROLLMENT
KDG 1 2 3 4 49 104 90 106 108 57 72 109 94 110 59 85 77 114 98 56 87 89 81 119 60 81 91 93 84 5 TOTAL STUDENTS 542 86 551 109 545 112 531 100 121 529 BIRTHS 72 83 84 77 81 CYNWYD ES OPTION 2 PROJECTED ENROLLMENT
KDG 1 2 3 4 49 104 90 106 107 57 72 109 93 110 59 84 76 114 98 55 86 89 80 118 59 80 91 93 83 5 TOTAL STUDENTS 542 86 550 109 543 112 529 99 120 526 CYNWYD ES OPTION 3 PROJECTED ENROLLMENT
KDG 1 2 3 4 45 104 89 106 107 53 67 109 93 109 55 79 71 114 97 52 81 83 75 118 55 75 84 86 77 5 TOTAL STUDENTS 537 85 539 108 526 111 506 98 119 497 BIRTHS 72 83 84 77 81 54
C. GLADWYNE
ELEMENTARY SCHOOL
55
BIRTHS 104 110 92 98 103 GLADWYNE ES OPTION 1 PROJECTED ENROLLMENT
KDG 1 2 3 4 77 129 111 120 155 82 111 139 119 128 69 117 119 149 127 73 98 126 128 159 77 105 106 135 136 5 TOTAL STUDENTS 736 144 741 162 715 134 717 133 167 725 YEAR 2015‐16 2016‐17 2017‐18 2018‐19 2019‐20 BIRTHS 104 110 92 98 103 GLADWYNE ES OPTION 2 PROJECTED ENROLLMENT
KDG 1 2 3 4 77 129 111 120 154 82 110 139 119 128 68 117 119 149 127 73 98 126 127 158 77 104 105 135 135 5 TOTAL STUDENTS 472 144 474 162 487 134 485 133 166 475 YEAR 2015‐16 2016‐17 2017‐18 2018‐19 2019‐20 BIRTHS 104 110 92 98 103 GLADWYNE ES OPTION 3 PROJECTED ENROLLMENT
KDG 1 2 3 71 130 111 120 75 103 140 119 63 109 111 149 67 91 117 118 71 97 98 125 5 TOTAL STUDENTS 729 143 724 161 690 133 682 131 165 680 YEAR 2015‐16 2016‐17 2017‐18 2018‐19 2019‐20 4 153 127 125 158 125 ENROLLMENT STUDY
D. MERION
ELEMENTARY SCHOOL
YEAR 2015‐16 2016‐17 2017‐18 2018‐19 2019‐20 YEAR 2015‐16 2016‐17 2017‐18 2018‐19 2019‐20 YEAR 2015‐16 2016‐17 2017‐18 2018‐19 2019‐20 BIRTHS 100 100 103 97 102 KDG 69 69 71 68 71 MERION ES OPTION 1 PROJECTED ENROLLMENT
1 2 3 106 99 109 97 112 105 97 102 118 100 102 108 95 106 108 4 113 108 104 117 107 5 TOTAL STUDENTS 600 105 606 116 603 111 601 107 120 606 BIRTHS 100 100 103 97 102 MERION ES OPTION 2 PROJECTED ENROLLMENT
KDG 1 2 3 69 106 99 109 69 96 111 105 71 97 102 118 67 100 102 107 71 94 105 107 4 113 108 104 116 106 5 TOTAL STUDENTS 600 105 605 116 602 111 599 107 119 603 MERION ES OPTION 3 PROJECTED ENROLLMENT
E. PENN VALLEY
ELEMENTARY SCHOOL
57
BIRTHS 97 73 95 84 89 PENN VALLEY ES OPTION 1 PROJECTED ENROLLMENT
KDG 1 2 3 4 77 95 136 139 121 59 116 98 144 150 78 89 120 105 157 71 117 92 128 114 75 104 119 98 138 5 TOTAL STUDENTS 700 131 695 128 708 159 688 165 119 654 YEAR 2015‐16 2016‐17 2017‐18 2018‐19 2019‐20 BIRTHS 97 73 95 84 89 PENN VALLEY ES OPTION 2 PROJECTED ENROLLMENT
KDG 1 2 3 4 77 95 136 139 121 59 116 97 144 150 77 89 120 104 157 70 117 92 128 114 74 104 119 97 138 5 TOTAL STUDENTS 700 131 694 127 706 159 685 165 119 651 YEAR 2015‐16 2016‐17 2017‐18 2018‐19 2019‐20 BIRTHS 97 73 95 84 89 PENN VALLEY ES OPTION 3 PROJECTED ENROLLMENT
KDG 1 2 3 4 71 96 136 139 121 54 108 98 144 149 72 83 111 105 155 65 109 86 119 113 69 97 111 90 127 5 TOTAL STUDENTS 693 131 679 126 683 157 655 163 118 612 YEAR 2015‐16 2016‐17 2017‐18 2018‐19 2019‐20 ENROLLMENT STUDY
F. PENN WYNNE
ELEMENTARY SCHOOL
YEAR 2015‐16 2016‐17 2017‐18 2018‐19 2019‐20 YEAR 2015‐16 2016‐17 2017‐18 2018‐19 2019‐20 YEAR 2015‐16 2016‐17 2017‐18 2018‐19 2019‐20 BIRTHS 106 112 104 102 108 PENN WYNNE ES OPTION 1 PROJECTED ENROLLMENT
KDG 1 2 3 4 85 133 120 130 116 91 113 137 121 132 85 120 117 139 124 83 111 123 118 142 88 109 115 125 120 5 TOTAL STUDENTS 705 121 714 120 722 137 706 128 147 704 BIRTHS 106 112 104 102 108 PENN WYNNE ES OPTION 2 PROJECTED ENROLLMENT
KDG 1 2 3 4 85 133 120 130 116 90 112 137 121 132 85 119 116 139 124 83 111 123 118 142 88 109 114 124 120 5 TOTAL STUDENTS 704 121 713 120 720 137 704 128 146 700 PENN WYNNE ES OPTION 3 PROJECTED ENROLLMENT
G. BALA CYNWYD
MIDDLE SCHOOL
59
YEAR 2015‐16 2016‐17 2017‐18 2018‐19 2019‐20 2020‐21 2021‐22 2022‐23 2023‐24 2024‐25 BALA CYNWYD MS OPTION 1 PROJECTED ENROLLMENT
5TH GRADE 6 7 8 TOTAL STUDENTS 885 312 288 290 306 918 345 320 300 298 999 360 356 334 309 1,085 335 371 371 343 1,113 387 345 386 381 1,156 319 399 360 397 1,108 338 327 413 368 1,112 334 348 340 424 1,051 318 343 361 348 336 328 356 370 1,054 YEAR 2015‐16 2016‐17 2017‐18 2018‐19 2019‐20 2020‐21 2021‐22 2022‐23 2023‐24 2024‐25 BALA CYNWYD MS OPTION 2 PROJECTED ENROLLMENT
5TH GRADE 6 7 8 TOTAL STUDENTS 884 311 288 290 306 916 345 320 299 297 996 359 356 333 308 1,082 334 370 369 342 1,108 385 344 385 379 1,149 317 397 358 395 1,101 336 325 411 366 1,103 331 345 337 421 1,042 315 340 358 344 332 324 353 367 1,044 YEAR 2015‐16 2016‐17 2017‐18 2018‐19 2019‐20 2020‐21 2021‐22 2022‐23 2023‐24 2024‐25 BALA CYNWYD MS OPTION 3 PROJECTED ENROLLMENT
5TH GRADE 6 7 8 TOTAL STUDENTS 882 311 287 290 305 911 342 318 298 296 987 356 351 331 305 1,068 330 365 364 338 1,090 383 338 379 373 1,132 291 393 351 388 1,063 309 298 406 358 1,041 305 317 309 415 954 290 312 328 315 306 297 323 335 956 ENROLLMENT STUDY
H. WELSH VALLEY
MIDDLE SCHOOL
YEAR 2015‐16 2016‐17 2017‐18 2018‐19 2019‐20 2020‐21 2021‐22 2022‐23 2023‐24 2024‐25 WELSH VALLEY MS OPTION 1 PROJECTED ENROLLMENT
5TH GRADE 6 7 8 TOTAL STUDENTS 993 373 339 342 312 1,089 363 389 350 350 1,144 380 380 404 360 1,208 397 397 395 415 1,231 373 414 412 405 1,243 367 390 430 423 1,225 374 382 403 440 1,199 342 390 396 414 1,164 347 356 403 405 366 362 369 414 1,145 YEAR 2015‐16 2016‐17 2017‐18 2018‐19 2019‐20 2020‐21 2021‐22 2022‐23 2023‐24 2024‐25 WELSH VALLEY MS OPTION 2 PROJECTED ENROLLMENT
5TH GRADE 6 7 8 TOTAL STUDENTS 992 373 338 341 312 1,087 362 388 350 349 1,141 379 379 403 360 1,204 396 396 394 414 1,226 372 412 410 403 1,237 365 388 428 421 1,218 371 379 401 437 1,191 339 387 393 411 1,155 344 353 400 402 363 358 366 411 1,134 YEAR 2015‐16 2016‐17 2017‐18 2018‐19 2019‐20 2020‐21 2021‐22 2022‐23 2023‐24 2024‐25 WELSH VALLEY MS OPTION 3 PROJECTED ENROLLMENT
5TH GRADE 6 7 8 TOTAL STUDENTS 989 372 337 341 311 1,081 359 386 348 348 1,130 375 374 400 357 1,188 391 391 388 410 1,206 369 406 404 396 1,218 336 384 420 414 1,173 342 348 397 429 1,120 312 355 360 405 1,057 316 323 367 367 334 329 335 375 1,039 60
I. HARRITON
HIGH SCHOOL
61
YEAR 2015‐16 2016‐17 2017‐18 2018‐19 2019‐20 2020‐21 2021‐22 2022‐23 2023‐24 2024‐25 HARRITON HS OPTION 1 PROJECTED ENROLLMENT
12 TOTAL STUDENTS 8TH GRADE 9 10 11 304 1,224 312 327 301 291 1,241 295 350 301 334 310 1,313 360 340 310 347 316 1,373 415 349 350 321 353 1,445 405 402 357 360 326 1,536 423 393 410 368 365 1,604 440 410 401 422 372 1,685 414 427 418 412 428 1,682 405 399 435 430 418 414 391 407 447 1,680 436 YEAR 2015‐16 2016‐17 2017‐18 2018‐19 2019‐20 2020‐21 2021‐22 2022‐23 2023‐24 2024‐25 HARRITON HS OPTION 2 PROJECTED ENROLLMENT
8TH GRADE 9 10 11 12 TOTAL STUDENTS 1,223 312 327 301 291 304 1,239 349 301 334 309 295 1,309 360 339 309 346 315 1,368 414 348 348 320 352 1,439 403 401 355 359 324 1,529 421 391 409 366 363 1,596 437 407 398 420 370 1,675 411 424 416 409 426 1,670 402 397 432 427 414 411 387 404 444 1,667 432 YEAR 2015‐16 2016‐17 2017‐18 2018‐19 2019‐20 2020‐21 2021‐22 2022‐23 2023‐24 2024‐25 HARRITON HS OPTION 3 PROJECTED ENROLLMENT
8TH GRADE 9 10 11 12 TOTAL STUDENTS 1,211 311 321 298 289 303 1,214 348 293 324 305 292 1,271 357 330 298 334 309 1,319 410 338 336 307 338 1,383 396 388 342 343 309 1,464 414 376 392 350 346 1,523 429 392 380 400 352 1,594 405 406 396 388 403 1,589 367 383 411 404 391 375 345 387 419 1,558 407 ENROLLMENT STUDY
J. LOWER MERION
HIGH SCHOOL
YEAR 2015‐16 2016‐17 2017‐18 2018‐19 2019‐20 2020‐21 2021‐22 2022‐23 2023‐24 2024‐25 LOWER MERION HS OPTION 1 PROJECTED ENROLLMENT
12 TOTAL STUDENTS 8TH GRADE 9 10 11 379 1,446 306 384 353 330 1,452 338 298 366 391 357 1,497 309 359 374 396 367 1,525 343 373 367 379 406 1,552 381 413 380 371 389 1,636 397 453 420 384 379 1,745 368 471 459 423 391 1,814 424 440 478 464 432 1,905 348 503 446 482 473 370 416 511 450 1,869 492 YEAR 2015‐16 2016‐17 2017‐18 2018‐19 2019‐20 2020‐21 2021‐22 2022‐23 2023‐24 2024‐25 LOWER MERION HS OPTION 2 PROJECTED ENROLLMENT
12 TOTAL STUDENTS 8TH GRADE 9 10 11 1,445 306 383 353 330 379 1,450 297 366 390 357 338 1,494 308 358 374 396 366 1,520 342 371 365 378 405 1,545 379 410 378 369 387 1,627 395 451 417 382 377 1,734 366 468 457 420 389 1,802 421 437 476 461 429 1,892 344 499 443 479 470 367 412 506 447 1,854 489 YEAR 2015‐16 2016‐17 2017‐18 2018‐19 2019‐20 2020‐21 2021‐22 2022‐23 2023‐24 2024‐25 LOWER MERION HS OPTION 3 PROJECTED ENROLLMENT
12 TOTAL STUDENTS 8TH GRADE 9 10 11 1,430 305 375 350 328 377 1,421 296 357 378 351 334 1,452 305 350 362 381 359 1,467 338 360 354 364 389 1,489 373 398 364 356 371 1,561 388 433 401 365 362 1,659 358 450 436 402 371 1,718 415 419 454 437 408 1,801 315 481 422 454 444 335 369 484 422 1,738 461 62

Lower Merion School District Enrollment Study

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