Crossings Land Use Development Strategy Final

Transcription

The Crossings, West Lethbridge
DEVELOPMENT STRATEGISTS
Land Use Development Strategy – FINAL REPORT
Presented:
April, 2011
Prepared by:
MXD Development Strategists, Ltd.
www.MXDdevelopment.com
0
Table of Contents
Preface
Executive Summary
I
II
1.0
Introduction
1
1.1
1.2
Scope of Study & Project Background
Report Structure
2
2
2.0
Economic & Market Overview
4
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
Introduction
Lethbridge Economy
Licensed Business Indicators
Lethbridge Population Growth
Lethbridge Employment
3.0
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.3.1
3.3.2
3.3.3
3.3.4
3.4
3.4.1
3.4.2
3.4.3
3.4.4
3.4.5
3.4.6
3.5
3.6
4.0
Retail Market Supply Analysis
25
5
5
6
7
7
4.1
4.2
4.3
4.4
4.5
4.6
4.7
4.8
4.9
Introduction
Lethbridge Retail Market Trends
Alberta Consumer Retail Spending
Retail Forecasts 2011 & Beyond
Competitive Retail Projects
Major Commercial Corridors
Competitive Retail Summary
Lethbridge Retail Tenants
Competitive Retail Void Analysis Summary
26
26
27
27
27
27
33
33
34
Location Analysis & Context
9
5.0
Retail Market Demand Analysis
38
Introduction
Regional Context
Local Context
Public Transportation
Average Daily Traffic Counts
Future Potential Transportation Infrastructure
Future Land Use
West Lethbridge Guiding Principles & Area Structure Plans
Urbanization of West Lethbridge
Urban Innovation Land Use District
Community Goals for Lethbridge
West Lethbridge Area Structure Plan
West Lethbridge Employment Centre Area Structure Plan
Benton Crossing Outline Plan
Site/Property Context
Summary
10
10
11
11
11
11
13
13
14
14
14
15
16
17
18
18
5.1
5.2
5.3
5.4
5.5
Introduction
Demographic Profile
Retail Trade Area Delineation
Retail Demand Analysis
Tenant Opportunity Summary
38
39
43
46
53
6.0
Office Market Supply Analysis
59
6.1
6.2
Introduction
Competitive Office Projects
59
61
7.0
Office Market Demand Analysis
62
7.1
7.2
7.3
7.4
7.5
Introduction
Office Demand Through Employment Growth
Office Demand Through Population Growth
Office Demand Quantification
Office Summary & Implications
62
62
62
63
65
8.0
Multi-Family Residential Supply Analysis
66
8.1
8.2
8.3
Introduction
Multi-Family Residential Trends
Competitive Multi-Family Developments
67
67
69
9.0
Multi-Family Residential Demand Analysis
72
9.1
9.2
Multi-Family Demand Quantification
Summary & Implications
72
74
Preface
MXD Development Strategists Ltd (MXD) of Vancouver, Canada, was
commissioned to conduct a Multi-Land Use Market Analysis & Residual Land
Value Financial Analysis for the City of Lethbridge. The Study was carried out
over the period January to April 2011.
The objective of this study is to document Lethbridge’s current retail, office,
hotel and multi-family supply and demand metrics to gauge the magnitude of
development opportunity for the Crossings development site located at the
intersection of Whoop Up Drive and Benton Drive in West Lethbridge.
In addition to the supply and demand metrics, MXD also conducted a residual
land value assessment to determine fair market value for the lands in the
Crossings Development, using base site plans created by Kasian Architecture &
Design based on input provided by MXD from the Market Analysis.
Reference material for this report was obtained from, but not limited to, The
City of Lethbridge, Commercial Real Estate Brokers, Environics Analytics,
Economic Development Lethbridge, Kasian Architecture & Design and MXD
Development Strategists Ltd.
Urban Land Institute
MXD Development Strategists Ltd. do not warrant that any estimates contained
within the study will be achieved, but that they have been prepared
conscientiously on the basis of information obtained during the course of this
study. Also, any tenant references made in the report are for illustrative
purposes only and should not be taken as guarantees that they will locate
within the Crossings development.
This analysis was conducted by MXD Development Strategists Ltd. as an
objective and independent party; and is not an agent of the City by virtue of this
or any subsequent study to be conducted on this matter.
As is customary in an assignment of this type, neither our name nor the material
submitted may be included in a prospectus, or part of any printed material, or
used in offerings or representations in connection with the sale of securities or
participation interest to the public, without the expressed permission of MXD
Development Strategists Ltd. or the City of Lethbridge.
i
Executive Summary
INTRODUCTION
MXD Development Strategists Ltd. of Vancouver, Canada (“MXD”) was
commissioned by the City of Lethbridge, the “Client”, in January 2011 to
conduct a Land Use Market Analysis & Development Strategy for the
proposed Crossings Development site (“the Crossings”). This site is located
at the northwest corner of Benton Drive and Whoop Up Drive in West
Lethbridge.
LOCATION CONTEXT SUMMARY
The City of Lethbridge acts as the anchor for Southern Alberta and is the
province’s 4th largest city by population and its third largest by area.
Lethbridge is also the largest and fastest growing municipality in the South
Central Region.
In 2010, Lethbridge’s population reached 86,659. To reach this figure,
Lethbridge has been growing at an average annual rate of 2.3% over the past
five years. This population growth rate is well above the national average of
0.8% annually.
Because of its location relative to other major or larger cities, Lethbridge
serves as an important regional commercial hub not only for retail, but for
industrial, agriculture and accommodations as well as attracting inward
employment opportunities.
Four provincial highways (3, 4, 5, and 25) run through or terminate in
Lethbridge. This has led to the creation of major arterial roads, including
Mayor Magrath Drive, University Drive, Scenic Drive and Whoop Up Drive.
The latter, Whoop Up Drive, represents one of the most recent and future
transportation arterials within Lethbridge.
The Crossing’s site is conveniently accessible from the North off of Hwy 3
(Crowsnest Hwy) at the University Drive interchange and the East along
Whoop-Up Drive, which is the City’s main East-West commuter arterial.
The intersection of Whoop Up Drive and University Drive exhibits some of
the highest traffic counts in the City. Specifically, the average daily traffic
counts (ADT) at this intersection are as follows:
University Drive & Whoop Up Drive (North):
University Drive & Whoop Up Drive (South):
University Drive & Whoop Up Drive (East):
University Drive & Whoop Up Drive (West):
25,400 ADT
44,200 ADT
20,500 ADT
12,800 ADT
This pattern of traffic volume suggests more significance could be played onto
having commercial uses at the centre of West Lethbridge from which the majority
of commuters are emanating (e.g. West Lethbridge neighbourhoods from Whoop
Up Drive) as opposed to the typical ``highway`` traveler segment, which as
evidenced by the traffic counts, is less significant in Lethbridge.
Future Land Use pattern clearly illustrates that the Crossings development site lies
at the epicentre of West Lethbridge and thus has the opportunity to serve as the
focal central community gathering location for residents to live, work, shop and
play.
Caution should be exercised however with respect to the Future Commercial
Expansion along Hwy 3 and the potential employment node at the Future
Industrial Area. Both of these development areas could provide a detrimental
competitive threat for commercial services at the Crossings. In particular,
Commercial Expansion would likely target similar small, medium and large sized
retail tenants and formats and should therefore be timed and prioritized until such
a time that the Crossings has established itself as the primary commercial heart of
West Lethbridge.
West Lethbridge is the fastest growing residential area in Lethbridge, yet its
current offering of retail and services is limited to grocery-anchored centre along
University Drive. The centrality of the Crossings site in West Lethbridge provides a
strong opportunity to provide community-scale shops and services to fulfill the
growing needs of West Lethbridge residents.
While there is an opportunity from the site and location perspective to
accommodate single family and medium density housing and local serving mixeduse commercial, any larger scale commercial land uses, must recognize potential
regional scale retail development identified as a core component of the West
Lethbridge Employment Centre ASP. However, the comparative magnitude of
traffic volumes at Whoop Up Drive & University Drive compared to those at Hwy 3
and University Drive suggest that the Crossings location represents a stronger and
more viable option for attracting Lethbridge residents on an annual and more
frequent basis, not to mention the additional complementary recreation and
leisure amenities and immediate proximity of the University and commuter traffic
flow.
ii
Executive Summary
RETAIL SUPPLY & DEMAND SUMMARY
The growth in year-over retail sales in Alberta between November 2009 and
2010 was the highest in the country at 8.8% according to Statistics Canada.
Furthermore, Alberta featured seven straight months of positive retail
growth between June and December 2010.
The Lethbridge retail market has been able to stay relatively stable over the
past few years during the economic downturn, during which time retail
vacancy rates have averaged between 6% to 8%. Between 2005 and 2008,
North and South Lethbridge experienced strong retail growth with the
addition of several major projects involving big-box tenants such as WalMart, The Home Depot, Canadian Tire and Future Shop.
West Lethbridge is the city’s fastest growing residential sector, however it
possesses only 226,538 sf of retail space, accounting for 3.4% of the total
retail inventory in the city. The Crossings development has the potential
over time to become the central shopping and service core for West
Lethbridge.
Many of Canada’s most popular national retailers are already located in
Lethbridge, however due to the rapid population expansion of West
Lethbridge, opportunities for potential additional or second location for
retail stores are expected over the next 5 to 10 years as demand is
warranted.
Due to the low amount of retail within West Lethbridge, combined with the
distance of the Mayor Magrath retail corridor, many categories within
Convenience and Comparison shopping are underserved including Grocery
and Specialty Foods, Personal Services, and General Merchandise and
Warehouse Clubs.
General Merchandise and Warehouse Clubs which would include such stores
as Costco and Wal-Mart are all located far enough away to not present a
strong competitive influence over the Crossings project.
A retail void analysis identifies a strong need for both quality Full-Service and
Limited-Service Restaurants, as well as Family Entertainment venues.
The majority of retail development has occurred in North and South
Lethbridge, with relatively little growth in inventory on the West side.
Consequently, West Lethbridge is under-retailed, with very little in the way
of destination fare in particular (comparison shopping, full-service
restaurants and entertainment).
West Lethbridge residents are reportedly particularly eager to see an expansion in
retail facilities in their neighbourhood.
The PTA encompasses the City of Lethbridge while the Secondary Trade Area
includes those areas recognized as the City’s existing catchment region. Drive
times were also integrated into the Retail Analysis to estimate the patronage
patterns to the retail project from within Lethbridge..
While most of the city’s residents live within a brief commute to the site, the
West-East divide in travel patterns will likely constrain patronage from East
Lethbridge residents to an extent.
Lethbridge residents represent the largest potential market ($1.2 Billion) of the
entire $2.1 Billion retail market available to the development. West Lethbridge is
anticipated to grow rapidly in importance over the 2013-2020 period (from $502
million to $756 million) while other markets are slated to grow more moderately.
A Retail Development Program identified a potential Floorspace Mix indicating
market support for a development of approximately 415,000 sf by 2020.
This program would require 7.5% of the entire market in 2013 and could include in
its early stages a Convenience program of 81,100 sf, which could would comprise
personal services such as Banks, Auto Insurance etc.
The Comparison program is recommended for 275,500 sf and would likely be part
of a phased development strategy along with the Leisure program which could be
in the range of 72,500 sf.
This retail program does not suggest that the full development should be built now
or within the next two years, but rather a phasing strategy would be most
pragmatic in accommodating trade area growth and market demand.
In the early years, the perceived level of risk based on market-driven demand is
high necessitating a Phasing Strategy for years 1 to 4. in which categories such as
Conveniences could be introduced with less evidence of impact and risk.
Over time however as West Lethbridge’s residential development and population
continues to grow, the required Capture Rates for most retail categories decline
(refer to Figure 5.13) to more reasonable levels, although Fashion may continue to
represent a challenge in the face of existing market competition
iii
Executive Summary
OFFICE SUPPLY & DEMAND SUMMARY
The Lethbridge office market is primarily located within the downtown core
with several business parks on the outskirts of the city providing new
opportunities. The total floor space for the city was just over 1.5 million sf as
of January 2010, comprising 19% of the total commercial space. Figures 6.1,
6.2 & 6.3 document some of the key recent performance metrics of the
Lethbridge Office Market.
The office vacancy rate for Lethbridge was 16%, as of December 2010
according to Avison Young. These numbers are slightly higher than the
larger metropolitan areas of Alberta and Calgary.
Office absorption has been slow, but typical for a market the size of
Lethbridge, with approximately 10,000 sf absorbed in 2010, primarily in the
downtown core.
The amount of white-collar office space outside of the downtown core is
quite limited, with Chinook Business Park on the south-east side of the city
providing the largest amount of new absorption.
Office space in West Lethbridge is very limited, with only 22,721 sf of floor
space as of 2010. This represents 1.5% of the total office space in
Lethbridge. The majority of offices are occupied by medical professionals,
travel insurance, immigration law and other service-based uses that typically
occupy under 2,000 sf of space per unit.
Amenities such as quality restaurants and complementary businesses are
lacking in West Lethbridge which is primarily based around residential and
education at the moment, which may be a reason why no large amount of
office space has been constructed as of yet.
Through a blended average using employment growth and population
growth, market-driven demand for Lethbridge totals 598,383 sf of office
space by 2025.
The Crossings will realistically only capture a portion of the projected office
demand, with a 10% market share being the most feasible capture due to
the current absence of proper office space within West Lethbridge.
By 2025, forecasts suggest feasible cumulative demand for 59,838 sf of
office space at the Crossings. By 2015, the Crossings could support 17,333 sf
of office space, increasing to 59,838 sf by 2025. On an annualized basis, the
aggregate total breaks down to a range between 3,200 sf to 4,800 sf per
annum
Due to the current office vacancy rate of 16% and approximately 250,000 sf of
vacant office space, it is expected to take a projected 16 years to absorb current
supply at a 15,000 sf annual absorption rate. Much of this current vacant space
though is Class B and Class C office space.
The Crossings could introduce a small amount of office space during the early
phasing of the project to test the viability of office absorption in West Lethbridge
since the west side of the city has no previous benchmarks to measure itself
against.
Tenants that could be captured by space within the Crossings development include
quasi-office functions such as travel agents, small medical offices and educational
satellite campuses. Primary sectors that could be captured include finance, law,
real estate, architecture, engineering and other small white-collar start-up
businesses.
In particular, tenants could occupy multi-tenant office space above the retail spine
in the Main Street, and possibly in a freestanding pad development if demand is
warranted.
MULTI-FAMILY RESIDENTIAL SUPPLY & DEMAND SUMMARY
Much like the rest of Alberta, Lethbridge is primarily a homeowners market, with a
majority of residents owning their own home. A large portion of the rental market
within Lethbridge is allocated towards student housing for those attending the
University of Lethbridge, as well as young singles and young families.
Multi-family housing stock in Lethbridge varies greatly depending on the area of
the city. Both North and South Lethbridge contain quite a few multi-family
developments in established neighbourhoods, however many of these
developments are twenty to thirty years old and are showing their age.
Primary residential growth has continued to occur in West Lethbridge with close to
40% of the population residing on the west side. An ample amount of developable
land will allow the city to continue to concentrate the majority of new housing
stock in West Lethbridge.
West Lethbridge is made up several distinct residential neighbourhoods, anchored
by the University of Lethbridge along University Drive and Whoop Up Drive.
iv
Executive Summary
Using West Lethbridge’s current 30% multi-family share in the housing
market, 179 units are estimated to be in demand in 2011, growing to 243 by
2020.
The potential multi-family residential component at the Crossings is located
in a highly strategic location within West Lethbridge due to its proximity to
schools, library and future recreational facilities. This will allow the project
to gain a strong capture rate of the West Lethbridge multi-family market, not
to mention if commercial shops and services are incorporated into the
immediate area.
Cumulative multi-family residential for-rent absorption is forecast at 36 units
by 2015 and 94 units by 2020. Cumulative for-sale absorption is forecast at
144 units by 2015 and 376 units by 2020. This creates a projected total of
470 units combined by 2020 with an average annual capture rate of 24.4%
for the West Lethbridge multi-family market
West Lethbridge has a strong mix of university students and young middle to
middle upper class residents creating a demand for higher quality product.
The current inventory is lacking within this segment and there is an
opportunity to fill this void.
The Crossing’s mixed-use qualities combining recreation, education,
commercial and residential components will further enhance the demand for
less traditional housing formats currently limited in Lethbridge. The
movement towards townhomes, rowhouses and walk-ups will provide
Lethbridge residents with a variety of housing types not found elsewhere in
the city.
HOTEL/ACCOMMODATIONS SUPPLY & DEMAND SUMMARY
Over recent years, supply and demand levels have moved in opposite
directions, whereby occupancy rates have declined and demand has slowed.
Because of the extended slowdown of the National economy, the short term
outlook is for hotel demand recovery, but not at a feverish pace as
evidenced in 2007 and 2008.
Recognizing a more modest outlook for the hotel sector over the next 5 to
10 years, the current hotel supply vs demand in Lethbridge needs to improve
so that occupancy rates do not decline any further.
Ideally, occupancy rates would need to improve from their current levels of 60%
or lower to at least 65% for a new hotel operator to realize feasibility in a market
where supply is currently fulfilled, particularly if operator is in the mid-market
profile segment and even more so if the site is suburban in nature, such as at the
Crossings.
In time, as West Lethbridge continues to grow and as areas such as the West
Lethbridge Employment Centre and the Crossings establish a foothold in the
market , a hotel will become potentially more attractive. In the short term
however, a hotel is not feasible for the Crossings site.
Assuming hotel occupancy rates grow as per estimated forecasts over the period
of 2010 to 2014 (and beyond), the results of the hotel demand analysis reveal that
another mid-priced hotel between 85 and 125 rooms, could be warranted by
2014/2015 in the City of Lethbridge. As mentioned however, this demand is likely
not going to be warranted for the Crossings development, but rather elsewhere in
the City, most likely in the Downtown.
The reality of the market-demand and development of West Lethbridge suggests
that beyond the initial feasibility in 2014/2015 the next available time horizon for
an approximate 80 to 100 room hotel could be 2019 to 2020. Ideally, the property
would likely fall within the 80-room size of the hotel spectrum.
THE CROSSINGS DEMAND SUMMARY
A summary of the total demand over the period 2011 to 2026 is provided in Table
1 and reflects the analysis of Retail, Office, Multi-Family Residential (“For-Rent”
and “For-Sale”) and Hotel land uses.
The project is based on a phased development premised around the introduction
of multi-family housing, predominantly MF “For-Sale” units at the outset with 70
units by 2015 and 139 units For Sale during the period 2019 to 2023. Ultimately
by 2026, 209 For Sale MF units and 70 For Rent MF units could be developed per
the market demand on the Crossings site.
Subsequent to creating the residential component (i.e. on-site demand),
community scale convenience and lifestyle retail and service office uses could be
introduced in the early stages. Full market support is not expected to exist for a
full comparison complement until such time that the population of the West
Lethbridge area nears approximately 50,000 residents.
v
Executive Summary
THE CROSSINGS ZONAL LAND USE ALLOCATION
Accordingly, the retail component should begin with the introduction of a
Grocery Anchor in the range of 50,000 sf along with Personal Services in the
form of Banks as well as potentially some Limited Service Food & Beverage
formats.
Additional boutique office-above-retail in the range of 20,000 sf could be
introduced over the period 2015 to 2019, in conjunction with street oriented
retail creating the beginnings of a main street spine and 4-Corners retail area
to the area.
Office could be expanded from its initial offering of approximately 20,000 sf
to almost 60,000 sf over time, particularly if a medium-scale user or larger
tenant is found to occupy an anchor space (i.e. Economic Development
driven). This could take the form of a freestanding 3-storey office
development occurring during the period 2023 to 2026.
Hotel uses for the Crossings site should be re-evaluated after approximately
10 years to determine if demand still warrants a potential hotel development
in the range of 100 rooms. There is inherent flexibility in the demand and
land allocation to potentially accommodate more office space if such
demand is strong.
Based on the Zones identified in Figure 1, a Land Use Zone Allocation has been
prepared.
Figure 2 illustrates the programmatic land use pattern envisioned for the Crossings
development in Zones 1 to 7. The diagram illustrates the mix of commercial land
uses comprised of freestanding and main street retail, 4-corners retail (96,200 sf)
with boutique offices (36,000 sf) above, freestanding office format and potential
hotel. Also, the diagram illustrates the potential breakdown of multi-family
housing in terms of potential development format.
Townhome housing is envisioned to comprise traditional row-housing in 4-unit
pods, as well as streetfront walk-up (i.e. Brownstone) homes fronting the eastwest central arterial spine.
Pending future market demand, a 70-unit
condominium could be introduced as a rental product for University Students who
would also help to activate and provide a core consumer segment for the future
town plaza area.
Table 1 Land Use Demand Summary
INCREMENTAL DEMAND 2011 TO 2026 FOR THE CROSSINGS DEVELOPMENT
LAND USE CATEGORY
ESTIMATED
WARRANTED
BUILD-OUT
2012 to 2015
2015 to 2019
2019 to 2023
2023 to 2026
Retail
415,100 sf
98,400 sf
255,100 sf
sf
61,600 sf
Office
58,000 sf
sf
20,000 sf
sf
38,000 sf
Hotel
100 rooms
Multi-Family Sale
209 units
70 units
units
139 units
units
70 units
units
units
units
70 units
Multi-Family Rental
rooms
rooms
rooms
100 rooms
vi
Site Area (acres)
Retail Space (sf)
Office Space (sf)
Civic Space (sf)
Residential Units (#)
Hotel Rooms (#)
Parking Spaces (#)
9.00
98,400
9.88
76,400
10,000
11.31
76,700
10,000
Executive Summary
Figure 1
586
25
464
497
22,000
10.35
30,800
8,000
8.61
30,800
8,000
94
130
234
227
100
193
8.48
102,000
577
5.32
4.25
9.61
78,400
130,700
255
389
79.33
415,100
58,000
209,100
279
100
3,033
Land Use Allocation and Zones
ZONE 1
Site Area (acres)
Retail Space (sf)
Office Space (sf)
Hotel Rooms (#)
Parking Spaces (#)
30
2.52
9.00
98,400
586
ZONE 2
ZONE 3
9.88
76,400
10,000
30
11.31
76,700
10,000
25
464
497
ZONE 4
2.52
22,000
100
193
ZONE 5
ZONE 6
ZONE 7
10.35
30,800
8,000
94
8.61
30,800
8,000
130
8.48
102,000
234
227
577
TOTAL
60.15
415,100
58,000
279
100
2,778
ZONE 4
Note: Total excludes Zones 8, 9 & 10
ZONE 1
ZONE 5
ZONE 6
ZONE 2
ZONE 3
ZONE 7
vii
Executive Summary
Figure 2
Development Phasing
ZONE 4
ZONE 1
ZONE 5
ZONE 6
ZONE 2
ZONE 3
ZONE 7
ix
Executive Summary
Figure 3
Land Use Potential Development Parcels
x
SECTION 1.0
INTRODUCTION
1
1.0 Introduction
Table 1.1
Development Strategy Process
3
SECTION 2.0
ECONOMIC & MARKET OVERVIEW
4
2.0 Economic & Market Overview
2.1 INTRODUCTION
The province of Alberta was able to maintain a relatively strong economy
during the economic downturn, emerging out of the recession fairly
unscathed compared to its neighbours to the south. Job growth began to
surge in early 2011, with a gain of 21,600 jobs throughout the province during
January.
Employment increases amounted to nearly one-third of the national total
according to Statistics Canada, with local companies hiring new staff and
expanding payroll. Job growth over the past year rose 2.2%. The biggest
employment gains were in business and building services, manufacturing and
hotel & food services.
When looking at wages, Alberta has continued to see increases that are near
the top of the nation. Average Weekly Earnings in October 2010 were $1,012
which is 17% higher than the national average of $863. Employees within
Alberta were earning 6.6% more in October 2010 than the year previous,
which is just off nation leader Saskatchewan.
Retail spending increased to pre-recession levels in 2010. Monthly retail sales
in Alberta went above $5 billion in Q4 for the first time since Q3 of 2008, an
encouraging sign for retail expansion. Year-over-year spending topped the
nation, up 6% from 2009, well ahead of the 3.3% national average (Table
2.1).
Business spending also increased to pre-recession levels, with Alberta
wholesale trade rising from November 2009 by 24%. The primary industry
for this increase is the energy sector, including drilling, exploration and
advances in clean energy.
Table 2.1
Alberta Economic Outlook
Alberta
ECONOMIC INDICATOR
2009
2010
Canada
2011
2009
2010
2011
Real GDP (% Change)
-4.5
3.0
3.5
-2.5
3.0
2.3
Employment (% Change)
-1.3
0.5
2.4
-1.6
1.6
1.2
Unemployment Rate (%)
6.6
6.5
6.0
8.3
8.1
7.9
Housing Starts (000s)
20
29
27
149
190
175
Budget Balance ($ Billion)
0.0
0.0
0.0
-5.8
-55.6
-45.4
Retail Sales (Annual % Change)
-8.4
6.0
5.6
-3.0
3.3
4.4
Source: RBC Economics Prov. Outlook Jan'11, Scotia Bank Prov. Economic Outlook Nov'10,
Stats Canada
Overall, as shown in Table 2.1 Alberta is expected to show continued strong
economic growth in 2011 after a resource-led rebound in 2010. Further
investment in the resource sector will fuel additional gains in the energy,
manufacturing and construction sectors. Private sector services have slowly
bounced back in the latter half of 2010 and should continue expand and support
activity in the resource sector.
In general, there is a definite advantage to residing in Alberta with the
province’s economy forecasted to continue expanding.
2.2 LETHBRIDGE ECONOMY
The City of Lethbridge acts as the anchor for Southern Alberta and is the
province’s 4th largest city by population and its third largest by area. Lethbridge
is also the largest and fastest growing municipality in the South Central Region.
Lethbridge is strategically located along the CANAMEX Corridor, where
Highways 2, 3 and 4 intersect. This locational advantage has allowed Lethbridge
to become a major shipping destination and trade route between Canada, the
United States and Mexico.
The city’s economy has remained stable, much like the province of Alberta has
throughout the economic downturn. Avison Young recorded an economic dip in
the beginning of 2010 due to global credit restrictions in previous years,
however improved by Q3 2010. Economic experts are predicting an optimistic
2011 for Lethbridge.
As Figure 2.1 shows, the economy of Lethbridge centres around six primary
industries. These economic clusters have allowed Lethbridge to keep a
diversified economy, which is integral for continued growth among businesses
within the city. Concentrating on these six core industries allows for synergy
and interconnection of businesses, suppliers and associated institutions in each
particular field.
5
Figure 2.1 Lethbridge’s Core Industries
2.3 LICENSED BUSINESS INDICATORS
The number of licensed businesses is often a primary indicator for the growth of
a city and Lethbridge is currently home to 5,500 businesses. Figure 2.2 displays
the number of licensed businesses in Lethbridge over the past decade. This data
also reveals that Lethbridge has enjoyed stable growth over the past ten years.
Since 2000, the number business licences in Lethbridge has grown by 49.3%.
AGRI-FOOD
Figure 2.2 also shows the acceleration of business growth between 2008 to 2010.
Over the past three years, Lethbridge has averaged a 10.1% annual increase in
business licenses, reaffirming that the city did not slow down during the
economic downturn.
INFO &
COMMUNICATION
TECHNOLOGY
AVIATION &
AEROSPACE
Lethbridge is expected to reach 6,000 business licences by 2012 with continued
commercial growth in the south and west, and industrial growth in the north.
Funding is more readily available due to increased confidence in the economy,
thus continued investments in new businesses within Lethbridge is expected.
LETHBRIDGE
ENVIRONMENTAL
PRODUCTS &
SERVICES
MANUFACTURING
SUPPLY CHAIN &
LOGISTICS
Figure 2.2 Lethbridge Licensed Businesses, 2000 - 2010
Number of Total Licensed
Businesses
6,000
5,5000 est
5,000
3,750 est
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Source: Economic Development Lethbridge
6
2.4 LETHBRIDGE POPULATION GROWTH
2.5
Figure 2.3 displays the annual population growth for the City of Lethbridge
between 2005 and 2010. In 2010, Lethbridge’s population reached 86,659. To
reach this figure, Lethbridge has been growing at an average annual rate of
2.3% over the past five years. This population growth rate is well above the
national average of 0.8% annually.
Table 2.2 shows Lethbridge’s labour force divided into industry segments by the
Statistics Canada North American Classification System (NAICS). According to
Statistics Canada, in 2006 Retail and Wholesale Trade represented 19.2% of the
total labour force, the largest industry on an employment basis. Health and Social
Services also represented a significant portion of the labour force at 14.7%.
There are several sources contributing to the stable population growth rate
for Lethbridge, including a consistent inflow of post-secondary students
attending the University of Lethbridge and other colleges throughout the city.
Employment in the Health & Social Services Industry has been growing faster than
other industries with an average annual growth of 4.1% (2001 – 2006). Other
notable industries growing consistently include Business Services, Finance,
Insurance & Real Estate, Manufacturing & Processing and Retail & Wholesale
Trade.
Other sources contributing to Lethbridge’s population include an expanding
seniors population, as the aging rural population moves into assisted living
facilities, as well as young families in-migrating from major cities such as
Calgary looking for lower-priced homes and who are able to work remotely
due to technological advances.
Lethbridge expects to reach 120,000 residents by 2026, and will continue to
outpace provincial growth consistently for the next fifteen years according to
Economic Development Lethbridge. This population threshold figure is
significant in that retailers, retail developers and other businesses will often
look for a population catchment of 100,000 as a minimum critical
benchmark when locating new-to-market or additional new stores.
Total Population in the City of
Lethbridge
Figure 2.3 Lethbridge Population Growth, 2005 - 2010
Source: City of Lethbridge
LETHBRIDGE EMPLOYMENT
Lethbridge industries which have been recently losing market share of the
employment sector include Construction, Transportation & Warehousing and
Primary Industries such as Farming, Fishing, Mining and Oil.
Table 2.3 shows Lethbridge’s major employers. According to Economic
Development Lethbridge, 41 of the businesses in Lethbridge employ more than
100 people.
As Table 2.3 shows, 8 of the top ten employers are public sector employers. These
8 public sector employers, employ a total of 9,952 people. Such a significant
portion of employment in the public sector creates a stable local labour market
that is not as susceptible to fluctuations in worker surplus or shortages.
According to Economic Development Lethbridge, the region’s largest employers
also represent many other key sectors including:
•
•
•
12 in the retail or hospitality industry;
11 in transportation or manufacturing; and
5 in the agri-food industry.
7
Table 2.2
Lethbridge Employment by Industry Division
ANNUALIZED GROWTH %
INDUSTRY BY INDUSTRY
CLASSIFICATION SYSTEM (NAICS)
1991
1996
2001
2006
% Of Total
5 Year
10 Year
Accommodation & Food Services
2,765
3,020
3,485
3,480
9.1%
0.0%
1.3%
Business Services
1,240
1,280
2,895
3,365
8.8%
2.8%
6.2%
Construction
2,035
2,135
2,595
1,595
4.2%
-12.5%
-3.4%
Education Services
3,005
3,200
3,565
3,485
9.1%
-0.5%
0.8%
Finance, Insurance, Real Estate
1,355
1,400
1,670
1,990
5.2%
3.2%
3.0%
Health & Social Services
3,520
3,970
4,485
5,625
14.7%
4.1%
2.9%
Information & Cultural
1,135
905
760
700
1.8%
-1.7%
-2.9%
Manufacturing & Processing
3,080
2,910
3,575
3,760
9.8%
1.0%
2.3%
Primary Industries
990
1,040
945
705
1.8%
-6.8%
-4.8%
Public Administration
2,650
2,035
1,765
1,830
4.8%
0.7%
-1.1%
Trade - Retail & Wholesale
6,270
6,910
6,300
7,380
19.2%
2.9%
0.6%
Transportation & Warehousing
1,170
1,135
1,725
1,100
2.9%
-11.4%
-0.3%
Other Services
2,340
2,680
2,045
2,250
5.9%
1.8%
-1.9%
Not Applicable
485
600
315
1,085
2.8%
14.2%
4.5%
Total 32,040
33,220
Smaller portions
of the
employment
sector and
growing.
Large portions of
the employment
sector and
growing.
Table 2.3
36,125 38,350
Lethbridge Major Employers
Source: City of Lethbridge 2011 & Stats Canada
Public Sector Employers
EMPLOYER
Alberta Health Services
University of Lethbridge
City of Lethbridge
Lethbridge School District #51
H & R Transport Ltd.
Lethbridge College
Alberta Government Offices
Wal-Mart
Holy Spirit Catholic Schools Division #4
Lethbridge Agricultural Centre
St. Michael's Health Centre
Canada Safeway
Sunrise Poultry
Maple Leaf Pork
McDonalds Restaurants
Charlton & Hill Ltd.
Frito-Lay Canada
Sun Life Financial
Green Acres Foundation
Real Canadian Superstore
BUSINESS ACTIVITY
City Only (Includes Chinook Regional Hospital)
Educational Institution
Municipal Government
Trucking Company
Justice, Regional Administration & Agencies
Department Stores
Agricultural Research
Health Services
Retail Food Stores & Food Processing
Poultry Processing
Pork Products
Fast Food Restaurants
Metalwork, Heating & Air Conditioning
Snack Food Processing & Distribution
Financial Services
Seniors Housing
Department Store
STAFF
2,588
1,720
1,640
995
967
933
901
689
665
625
510
475
315
312
300
300
295
293
283
280
8
SECTION 3.0
LOCATION & SITE ANALYSIS
9
3.0 Location & Site Analysis
3.1
INTRODUCTION
A location analysis was undertaken of the Crossings development area and
site, beginning with an overall regional context, and then focusing on the
local context and ultimately the site itself.
3.2
REGIONAL CONTEXT
Lethbridge is Alberta's fourth-largest city by population after Calgary,
Edmonton and Red Deer, and the third-largest by area after Calgary and
Edmonton.
Referring to Figure 3.1, Lethbridge is a southern Alberta community in the
County of Lethbridge located approximately 210 kms south of Calgary and
170 kms west of Medicine Hat. In terms of drive time, Lethbridge is
approximately 2 ½ hours from Calgary and 2 hours from Medicine Hat.
In addition to these closest major Canadian centres, Lethbridge is also the
nearest major commercial hub for some smaller northern US cities. The US
Border Crossing into Montana is approximately 45 minutes drive south in
which, the nearest US City is Great Falls, approximately 2 hours drive time
from Lethbridge. With the current status of the Canadian Dollar vis-à-vis the
US Dollar, trans-border trips from the US to Canada are not prevalent or
common as they were in the early parts of this decade or mid 1990s.
Table 3.1 Lethbridge Population Growth 2005 - 2010
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Avg
Annual
Change
North Lethbridge
22,911
23,241
24,024
24,514
24,835
25,116
1.9%
South Lethbridge
27,884
28,318
29,225
29,773
30,168
30,144
1.6%
West Lethbridge
26,407
27,154
28,453
29,673
30,489
31,399
3.5%
Total 77,202
78,713
81,702
83,960
85,492
86,659
2.3%
CITY AREA
Source: City of Lethbridge, 2011
The overall regional and local transportation infrastructure represents an
important location for Lethbridge on the CANAMEX corridor for goods movement
between Canada, the US and Mexico.
Figure 3.1 Regional Context
Because of its location relative to other major or larger cities, Lethbridge
serves as an important regional commercial hub not only for retail, but for
industrial, agriculture and accommodations as well as attracting inward
employment opportunities.
As revealed previously, an estimated half of the Lethbridge workforce is
employed in the Health, Education, Retail and Hospitality sectors, while the
top five employers are government-based.
According to the most recent Municipal Census in 2010, Lethbridge had an
estimated 86,659 residents (refer to Table 3.1). Since 2005, Lethbridge has
exhibited an average annual population growth rate of 2.3%.
Specifically, West Lethbridge overtook South Lethbridge as the most
populous region in Lethbridge in 2009 and its average annual growth rate
over the same five year period 2005 to 2010 has exceeded the City average
at 3.5%.
Four provincial highways (3, 4, 5, and 25) run through or terminate in
Lethbridge. This has led to the creation of major arterial roads, including
Mayor Magrath Drive, University Drive, Scenic Drive and Whoop Up Drive.
The latter, Whoop Up Drive, represents one of the most recent and future
transportation arterials within Lethbridge.
10
3.3
LOCAL CONTEXT
Lethbridge is fast-growing City with major population tracts in East and South
Lethbridge, but increasingly in the immediate area surrounding the Crossings
development in West Lethbridge (refer to Figure 3.2).
With respect to transportation, The Crossing’s site is conveniently accessible
from the North off of Hwy 3 (Crowsnest Hwy) at the University Drive
interchange and the East along Whoop-Up Drive, which is the City’s main
East-West commuter arterial.
Lethbridge does have some topography, most notably the River Valley, which
provides some shelter from the wind, however the winds in Lethbridge can
be quite strong at almost any time of the year and predominantly flow in an
east-west direction, which should be recognized in any development where
pedestrian circulation or outdoor exposure is desired.
3.3.1
Public Transportation
Referring to Figure 3.3, Transit service in Lethbridge operates on 30 minute
service on all routes during the day and 40 minute service at night. Transit
has convenient access to and within the Crossings Development, with a bus
shelter/stop at the Library via Bus 35, which is a dedicated bus along Whoop
Up Drive to the Crossings site, and Copperwood Neighbourhood. The main
hub and interchange for Bus 35 is at the nearby Lethbridge University.
3.3.2
This pattern of traffic volume suggests more significance could be played onto
having commercial uses at the centre of West Lethbridge from which the majority
of commuters are emanating (e.g. West Lethbridge neighbourhoods from Whoop
Up Drive) as opposed to the typical ``highway`` traveler segment, which as
evidenced by the traffic counts, is less significant in Lethbridge.
3.3.3 Future Potential Transportation Infrastructure
The location of the Crossings site, which is not at a major high visibility
interchange nor currently on a high volume portion of Whoop Up Drive places it in
a vulnerable position if new developments with high visibility and interchange
access are provided. This same position can be taken when considering the
potential Chinook Trail extension and its potential effect on the Crossings if
commercial uses were to be developed near the Chinook Trail interchange.
Figure 3.2 illustrates future potential transportation improvements, most
significant of which as it relates to the Crossings development would be the
Chinook Trail extension. This major arterial proposes to not only connect with
Hwy 3 at the north, but also would provide a third river crossing, thereby
providing access to/from the South/Southeast neighbourhoods of Lethbridge.
Figure 3.2 Future Transportation Improvements
.
Average Daily Traffic Counts
As evidenced in Figure 3.4, Traffic Counts, which are a vital aspect to any
commercial development, reveal significant upside potential for the
Crossings area. Most notably, the intersection of Whoop Up Drive and
University Drive exhibits some of the highest traffic counts in the City.
Specifically, the average daily traffic counts (ADT) at this intersection are as
follows:
University Drive & Whoop Up Drive (North):
University Drive & Whoop Up Drive (South):
University Drive & Whoop Up Drive (East):
University Drive & Whoop Up Drive (West):
25,400 ADT
44,200 ADT
20,500 ADT
12,800 ADT
These traffic counts are quite significant. As a comparison, the highest daily
traffic counts on Hwy 3 at the Interchange of University Drive are 23,100 ADT
in the eastbound direction, but tail off to 8,200 ADT heading South onto
University Drive.
11
Transit Routes in West Lethbridge
Source: http://www.lethbridge.ca/NR/rdonlyres/5E74A55C-B4D7-4F1F-BF4D38E134D8232E/15834/MapofWestRoutesJune2010.pdf
Case Study Profiles
Figure 3.3 West Lethbridge Public Transit Routes
Figure 3.4 West Lethbridge Traffic Counts
Traffic Volumes
Source: http://www.lethbridge.ca/NR/rdonlyres/7A85643B-31F7-4401-9C0C03F95075888B/16290/TrafficFlowMap2010.pdf
12
3.3.4
Case Study Profiles
The Chinook Trail extension could have negative effects on the Crossings
development by making the current critical mass of retail in South Lethbridge
more accessible to West Lethbridge residents and by reducing the vehicle
counts along Whoop Up Drive. Additionally, a potential intersection at
Whoop Up Drive and Chinook Trail could become a very desirable location
for “regional-serving retail” which could compete directly with the Crossings.
It is important that while the Crossings development have sufficient critical
mass and mix that Whoop Up drive in this specific area does not become a
Magrath West with a cluster of fragmented, un-pedestrian friendly and
poorly designed highway commercial boxes.
Figure 3.5 Future Land Use
1
3
Future Land Use
Future Land Use and Transportation patterns play a vital role in the potential
and type of commercial activity in an area.
In particular, West Lethbridge has four (4) major areas of future land use
planned, as outlined by the City of Lethbridge and shown in Figure 3.5:
1.
2.
3.
4.
4
Future Commercial Expansion at the interchange of Hwy 3 & University
Drive.
Future Residential Expansion to the West and Southwest of University
Drive and Whoop Up Drive.
Future Industrial Expansion along Westside Drive South of Hwy 3.
Future Mixed-Use Development at the Crossings site along Whoop Up
Drive.
The Future Land Use pattern clearly illustrates that the Crossings
development site lies at the epicentre of West Lethbridge and thus has the
opportunity to serve as the focal central community gathering location for
residents to live, work, shop and play.
Caution should be exercised however with respect to the Future
Commercial Expansion along Hwy 3 and the potential employment node at
the Future Industrial Area. Both of these development areas could provide
a detrimental competitive threat for commercial services at the Crossings.
In particular, Commercial Expansion would likely target similar small,
medium and large sized retail tenants and formats and should therefore be
timed and prioritized until such a time that the Crossings has established
itself as the primary commercial heart of West Lethbridge.
2
Source: http://www.lethbridge.ca/NR/rdonlyres/1DDF5E57-4E69-4B2F-B8EEBE0DF4ABBA5D/16030/MUNICIPALDEVELOPMENTPLAN2010.pdf
3.4
WEST LETHBRIDGE GUIDING PRINCIPLES & AREA STRUCTURE PLANS
As Lethbridge’s population increases and new units are developed to house new
residents, it is important to explore where future growth will occur in the City. As
shown in Figure 3.5, new residential development will be encouraged in all areas
of the City with West Lethbridge accommodating the majority. Several factors will
influence future residential development: first and foremost is the type of housing
that an increasingly aging population will demand (generally higher density,
smaller units). As well, a general shift towards smaller families will influence the
demand for different types of housing units in the future.
13
3.4.1 Urbanization of West Lethbridge
The westward expansion of the City across the Oldman River into West
Lethbridge was recommended as a major direction for growth in the 1964
General Plan resulting in "The Urbanization of West Lethbridge" strategy
(1969).
In this document, a core component proposed was that development should
follow a "Village Concept". To-date, no “Village Concept” has been clearly
defined, nor implemented, but now that the population of West Lethbridge
is beginning to reach an important threshold (>30,000), the timing is
appropriate to follow this long established mandate, consistent with new and
current Smart Growth Planning principles, further emphasizing form based
coding and design guidelines.
A sense of community and identity were both considered to be important
components of the Village planning concept. Generally, with a school at its
centre, the Neighbourhood was intended to be an area to which a small child
could relate; the Village, with a major park and commercial centre, would be
the area to which an adult would frequently relate. A network of pedestrian
walkways and green spaces would add to the Village's open and park-like
setting.
This “Village Concept” forms the basis of the Crossings development in which
commercial services can be harmoniously and seamlessly integrated into an
urban/suburban fabric with lower to medium density housing, leisure and
recreation amenities. The difference however, is that the Crossings has the
centrality and amenity base to serve not just as a “Village” for immediate
surrounding neighbourhoods but as the wider-serving Community Hub for
West Lethbridge.
3.4.2
Urban Innovation Land Use District
In November 2008, City Council created the “Urban Innovation District” (UID)
which may allow traditional land uses to be mixed as long as they are
comprehensively planned. The purpose of the UID is to allow the City of
Lethbridge to work closely with proponents to design and build high quality
urban environments where people can live, work, worship and play in close
proximity without the need for long distance travel. It will also allow for the
application of innovative forms of housing, business and employment mixed
uses to meet Lethbridge’s unique needs.
The UID is designed to be more responsive to the needs of the building and
development industry as they seek to meet evolving demands and trends of
the marketplace.
Over the last several decades, Lethbridge has generally supported a standardized
suburban model of growth and development. The suburban model has served a
large segment of the population quite well however, alternative forms of
development will support a diverse range of lifestyles and choice in housing. The
UID was prepared with the recognition that support for alternative or innovative
development requires that the rules and regulations respecting development on
private property, such as the Land Use Bylaw, will require amendment to allow for
greater flexibility.
The UID contains no specific development standards, which the Crossing
development is recommended to implement. Rather, the developer is to prepare
and provide a comprehensive site plan for approval by the Municipal Planning
Commission. The comprehensive site plan will address and be judged upon the
use of good planning principles rather than specific rules.
In relation to the Crossings development, the UID has relevance in so far as
accommodating flexibility in the development of the mixed-use and high street
components. However, Design Guidelines will play an essential role in
establishing the necessary look and feel for the commercial and mixed-use
offering, particularly as it pertains to retail formats and sizes in ensuring that their
interface between neighbouring residential areas and other land uses is
complementary and compatible.
3.4.3
Community Goals for Lethbridge
The policies and planning principles of the City of Lethbridge are outlined as
follows, some of which will help to shape aspects and components of the
Crossings development vision and strategy:
 To cooperate with our municipal and First Nations neighbours; strengthening
our region.
 To promote active involvement of residents in all facets of governance and
community life.
 To ensure that recreation, transportation, housing, education and
employment opportunities are economically and physically accessible to all
residents.
14

To balance cultural, social, economic, and environmental policies and
programs to achieve a high quality of life for all residents.

To strengthen and revitalize the downtown.

To retain our friendly community atmosphere which instils a civic sense
of pride and contributes to our cultural vibrancy.
3.

To provide opportunity for a high standard of living and excellent quality
of life for all residents throughout the community.
4.

To promote acceptance and diversity, and foster inclusivity for all
community members.

To foster community identity and pride.

To develop a knowledge based community by building on the strengths
within post-secondary and cultural institutions and research facilities.

To ensure that the community remains safe and that residents
perception of safety is effectively addressed.

To accommodate population growth using responsible and balanced
strategies that recognize benefits and costs of growth.

To promote holistic healthy living for all residents.

To ensure continued economic prosperity by building on key strengths
and opportunities within the economy.

To enhance
Lethbridge.

To ensure the development of varied and effective transportation
options for all residents.

To conserve and enhance the natural environment within the City.

To be a leader in viable renewable energy use and adoption which
includes, but is not limited to: solar; wind and geothermal energy.
3.4.4
economic
and
housing
1.
2.
opportunities
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
Provide a framework that will facilitate financial viability of future
development through the orderly and economic extension of services and
strategic allocation of land uses.
Promote walkability by creating functional, safe and attractive pedestrian
environments.
Foster integrated neighbourhoods that encourage a wider range of housing
choice for different age and income groups.
Provide a logical, safe and efficient hierarchy of transportation systems
within the ASP area to address the public transit, private automobile and
truck movement, pedestrian and bicycle transportation needs of residents
and businesses.
Create a sense of place that adds visual interest and fosters social
interaction, where people want to spend time.
Design attractive and functional open spaces
Foster the safety and comfort of residents to enhance livability.
Accommodate needed community services and recreational opportunities.
Encourage mixed-use development within the Community Core to create
opportunities to live, work, shop, play and learn.
Figure 3.6 West Lethbridge ASP
throughout
x
West Lethbridge Area Structure Plan (ASP)
The West Lethbridge ASP, shown in Figure 3.6 is the governing plan for the
development of the area in which the Crossings development is proposed.
Within this ASP, residential, commercial or institutional development is
expected to follow specific principles as articulated by the following:
15
As extracted from the West Lethbridge ASP;
The major driving forces behind the development of this area are three-fold:
“The Community Core is a pedestrian-oriented, mixed-use centre where
residents can live, work, shop, play and learn. It also provides a focal point
for surrounding villages and a range of public and civic facilities such as
schools, libraries and recreational centres offering private commercial/retail
businesses, offices, multi-unit housing, senior’s housing and health clinics all
integrated into a common destination. The range of community services
provided in the Community Core helps to create a sense of community and
focus for all of West Lethbridge. Further, a village square, high quality
pedestrian street environment and good transit access provides a unifying
framework that makes the Community Core a gathering point and provides
linkages to surrounding village and the remainder of West Lethbridge”.
1. Additional employment lands to provide employment opportunities closer to
where residents live or commute from.
2. New expanded retail offering and opportunities for West Lethbridge residents.
3. Lessen the demand for a 3rd bridge crossing and delay the resulting need for
the Chinook Trail extension.
The total forecasted population for the West Lethbridge ASP is estimated at
buildout to be 21,758, comprised of 7,675 in the North Village, 11,934 in the
South Village and 2,148 in the Community Core, although these figures
represent a maximum build out scenario and are not necessarily based on
market-driven dynamics.
Within the West Lethbridge ASP, the Community Core is the critical area in
which a mix of housing size, tenure and cost options as well as commercial
activities comprised of traditional retail commercial (i.e. Grocery Anchored
retail) fronting Whoop Up Drive, but more progressively and potentially
mixed-use and “high street” type retail commercial at the centre of the
Community Core.
3.4.5
West Lethbridge Employment Centre Area Structure Plan
The West Lethbridge Employment Centre ASP is a separate but
complementary entity from the West Lethbridge ASP, as shown in Figure 3.7,
but represents both an important area for future employment lands near the
Crossings, but also a competitive threat for potential commercial uses.
According to the ASP, targeted uses for the West Lethbridge Employment
Centre ASP could include:





Light/Medium Industry;
Highway Commercial, comprised of a Regional Shopping Centre;
Business / Research Parks;
Residential; and
Regional transient accommodations and services (i.e. hotels and
restaurants).
According to the Municipal Development Plan, the core Planning Goals and Policies
for the West Lethbridge Employment Centre ASP are:
GOAL 2.3 - More Commercial Services for West Lethbridge Residents.
GOALS 1.5 & 3.2 – Jobs & Services Close to Residential Areas.
GOAL 2.4 – Future Highway Commercial Areas that Will Increase Tourism in the
City.
GOAL 2.7 – Designate Land for Employment Areas(Industrial & Commercial) in
North, South & West Lethbridge.
POLICY #2 - Ensure a sufficient supply of serviced land to accommodate all business
growth and development.
POLICY #4 - Encourage and promote an adequate supply of land that is planned
and available for servicing to meet market demand.
POLICY #6 - Support a range of choice of new expansion areas for residential,
commercial and industrial development.
POLICY #2 - Encourage & promote mixed-use development and a mix of land uses
in employment areas.
Caution must be taken when considering the impact that this ASP could have on
the Crossings area, particularly as it relates to conflicting goals and policies. For
example, the envisioned commercial land uses planned for the Crossings, such as
medium-sized tenants would likely be the same types of tenants sought for any
Highway Commercial site in the West Lethbridge Employment Centre ASP.
The principle of creating employment lands is very strong for this area and should
be pursued, but the timing of any Highway Commercial should be prioritized after
the Crossings has established a solid footing in the West Lethbridge Market.
Future Highway Commercial will have less an impact in increasing Tourism to the
City (Planning Goal 2.4) than would the successful development and
implementation of a vibrant mixed-use and/or multi-use environment at the
Crossings.
16
Figure 3.7 West Lethbridge Employment Centre ASP
The Outline Plan noted that residential uses in the High Street could consist of
upper floor residential units located above commercial uses, in which
approximately 66% of the High Street area will consist of residential uses.
Similarly, residential uses in the mixed-use area could consist of upper floor
residential units located above commercial/office/institutional uses, in which
approximately 75% of the mixed-use area will consist of residential uses.
All of the above residential forecasts totalling and estimated 2,759 on-site
residents are subject to market-driven forces and the timing of the residential
buildout will be critical in establishing the appropriate development phasing.
Figure 3.8 Benton Crossing Outline Plan
3.4.6
Benton Crossing Outline Plan
The purpose of the Benton Crossing Outline Plan is to establish a framework
for the future subdivision and development of lands within the Community
Core, west of Benton Drive and north of Whoop-Up Drive.
The Community Core component of Benton Crossing is synonymous with the
Crossings Development area and forms the foundation against which this
“market-driven” analysis and development strategy is applied.
The Benton Crossing Outline Plan was originally approved on August 29,2006
and revised in October 2008 and proposed the mix of uses shown in Figure
3.8. In terms of population forecast estimates, the Benton Crossing Outline
Plan provided the following statistical data:
295
200
360
80
248
Low Density Residential Units
Senior Residential Units
559 residents
High Density Residential Units
High Street Residential Units
Mixed-Use Residential Units
825 residents
720 residents
160 residents
495 residents
17
3.5
SITE/PROPERTY CONTEXT
The surrounding context around the Crossings site provides necessary
guidance and insight into the commercial and residential compatibility and
viability. The following pages provide a critical assessment of factors
associated with the Crossings development site and identify the magnitude
of opportunity.
Tables 3.2 & 3.3 highlight The Crossing site’s overall compatibility for
commercial and multi-family residential land uses in order to lay a
foundation for subsequent positioning and allocation of land uses within the
site. In this regard, a variety of criteria were evaluated and qualitatively
assessed as to whether the compatibility and potential degree of
opportunity was “Low”, “Moderate” or “High”.
Table 3.4 summarizes the overall Crossing’s site strengths, weaknesses in
order to highlight specific areas of opportunity as well as potential threats
that could impact the development of the Crossings site, particularly in
terms of its composition and positioning.
Belmar Town Center, Colorado
Figure 3.9 provides a visual overview of the Crossings site from various site
angles and directions.
3.6
SUMMARY
West Lethbridge is the fastest growing residential area in Lethbridge, yet its
current offering of retail and services is limited to grocery-anchored centre
along University Drive. The centrality of the Crossings site in West
Lethbridge provides a strong opportunity to provide community-scale shops
and services to fulfill the growing needs of West Lethbridge residents.
While there is an opportunity from the site and location perspective to
accommodate single family and medium density housing and local serving
mixed-use commercial, any larger scale commercial land uses, must
recognize potential regional scale retail development identified as a core
component of the West Lethbridge Employment Centre ASP. However, the
comparative magnitude of traffic volumes at Whoop Up Drive & University
Drive compared to those at Hwy 3 and University Drive suggest that the
Crossings location represents a stronger and more viable option for
attracting Lethbridge residents on an annual and more frequent basis, not to
mention the additional complementary recreation and leisure amenities and
immediate proximity of the University and commuter traffic flow.
Belmar Town Center, Colorado
18
Table 3.2
The Crossings COMMERCIAL Development Compatibility Evaluation
COMMERCIAL DEVELOPMENT
Site Criteria
Visibility
Regional Accessability
Local Accessability
Site Accessability
Adjacent Land Uses
Potential Competitive Sites
Parking
Proximity to Mass Transit
Size & Shape
TOTAL
Current Site Qualities
- Strong linear visibility along Whoop Up Dr, but limited from major Univ Dr intersection
- Good visibility from south and eastern residential neighbourhoods
- Good visibility from the High Schools and Library
- Limited by its central West Lethbridge location vis-à-vis Hwy 3 interchange
- Location along Whoop Up Drive provides adequate access from eastern City areas
- Could be significantly ehanced in future B9by potential Chinook Trail Expansion
- Strong accessibility via local arterial roads such as Benton Dr
- Whoop Up and University Drive are major vehicle traffic generators very close by
- Network of Pedestrian trails provide stong accessibility by foot and bicycle
- 2 future signalized intersections at east and west sideportals to Community Core
- Strong internal road network connecting future north residential areas
- Future "gateway" North-South Main Street entry can only be a right-in/right-out
- High School & Library to north are not the best uses for commercial tenants
- New residential development east and south of site within walking distance
- Development of residential areas to west of site will take time to infill
- West Lethbridge Employment Centre ASP - Regional Shopping Centre - Timing?
- Future Chinook Trail at Whoop Up Drive would be a very attractive site - Timing?
- New grocery cluster with Save-On-Foods & Safeway, but impact would be limited
- Grid orientation would allow for good surface parking ratios and design for larger users
- Good opportunities for on-street parking to benefit streetfront shops & services
- Existing West Lethbridge Bus 35 has a current stop at Library
- Future allocation as area grows to have 3 additional stops surrounding commercial
- Major Bus Loop at University providing good convenience access for students
- Excellent linear frontage in excess of 600m along Whoop Up Drive
- Large east west rectangular orientation allows for grid pattern of development
- Total commercial land area provides ample area for mix of formats and sizes, though
users larger than 100,000 sf may be a challenge to accommodate.
Degree Of Opportunity
Moderate
Moderate
High
High
Moderate
Limited
High
Moderate
High
MODERATE
19
Table 3.3
The Crossings RESIDENTIAL Development Compatibility Evaluation
RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT
Site Criteria
Current Site Qualities
Amount of Noise
- Whoop Up Dr is poised to become a major east-est arterial as W Lethbridge grows
- Beyond traffic noise on Whoop Up Dr, truck, train and plane noise is limited
Adjacent Land Uses
Views
- Residential single family and multi-family neighbourhoods are very compatible
- Recreational amenities, trails and open space are very strong in walking distance
- Civic uses such as High Schools and Library are strong amenities
- Very flat topography, with few signficant sightlines
- Good potential for sunset views
Size & Shape
- 2 future signalized intersections at east and west sideportals to Community Core
- Strong internal road network connecting future north residential areas
- Future "gateway" North-South Main Street entry can only be a right-in/right-out
- Areas north of The Crossings provide large tracts of land for single family devp't
- Grid configuration of site area allows for good provision of medium density housing
Elementary & Secondary Schools
- Central to the entire project area is the Public and Private High Schools and Library
- Elementary school is located within walking distance Indian Battle Heights
Site Accessability
Post-Secondary Schools
- University of Lethbridge is only a 5-minute drive from The Crossings with Public
Transit access to/from via Bus 35
Degree Of Opportunity
High
Strong
Limited
High
High
High
High
- No major facilities currently in West Lethbridge other than assortment of Medical
Hospitals & Medical Facilities
Limited
Recreation Facilities
- Excellent provision of current outdoor playing fields
- Future plans for major indoor recreational amenities such as Curling, Fitness,
High
Proximity to Mass Transit
- Existing West Lethbridge Bus 35 has a current stop at Library
- Future allocation as area grows to have additional stops in north residential areas
High
Proximity to Food & Beverage
TOTAL
- Currently limited offering of limited services and full service sit-down restaurants
- Future provision at The Crossings should address any current deficiency, but a
critical component to F&B demand is area major daytime employment generators
Moderate
HIGH
20
Table 3.4 The Crossings – S.W.O.T. Analysis Summary
• Centrality to West Lethbridge.
• Visibility and access to/from Whoop Up Drive.
• Box retail needs to be buffered from SF Res on south side of Whoop
Up Drive.
• Proximity to University of Lethbridge (8,100 Students and 1,800
employees).
• Not enough critical mass of population for regional destination retail.
• Proximity to future potential Chinook Trail Ring Road.
• Not located on a major highway or interchange.
• Adjacent Civic Amenity (Public Library).
• Limited current traffic counts.
• New and rapidly growing residential communities.
• Residential only on N, S & E sides.
• Favourable forecasted Traffic Counts.
• Limited “lunch hour” population to support F&B.
• Flat topography and contiguous land parcels.
• High Schools are not the most optimal anchor uses.
• Approximate 900m of Whoop Up Drive frontage.
• Limited draw for attracting hotel operators.
• No nearby major employment node.
• Community-scale retail providing shops and services for rapidly
growing new middle-income residents.
• Chinook Trail extension interchange could be a very attractive
location for regional retail.
• Medium density residential both at streetfront to take advantage of
school, library and recreational amenities – Families, Young Adults and
Seniors.
• Potential Regional Retail along Hwy 3 as part of the West Lethbridge
Employment Centre ASP.
• Smaller-scale boutique office both above retail and potentially
freestanding to provide on-site demand.
• If maximum store size is limited to 80,000 sf, critical tenants may
look elsewhere (e.g. RCSS, Cdn Tire etc.)
• Access to University Students for shops, services, residential,
recreational and small business incubator programs.
• Attractiveness of Downtown for Higher Density Residential, Office
and Hotel Development.
• Continued infill and potential redevelopment along Mayor Magrath.
21
Figure 3.9 The Crossings – Site Imagery
22
23
24
SECTION 4.0 & 5.0
RETAIL ANALYSIS
25
4.0 Retail Market Supply Analysis
INTRODUCTION
This section examines the current retail infrastructure of Lethbridge to fully
understand the current level of performance and resulting amount of
potential demand for additional new retail space at the Crossings site.
After documenting the overall Lethbridge retail environment, as shown in
Figure 4.4 and summarized in Table 4.1, this section will specifically
examine the retail infrastructure of Lethbridge as it relates to the future
allocation of land uses and development priorities.
4.2
LETHBRIDGE RETAIL MARKET TRENDS
The Lethbridge retail market has been able to stay relatively stable over the
past few years during the economic downturn, during which time retail
vacancy rates have averaged between 6% to 8%. Between 2005 and 2008,
North and South Lethbridge experienced strong retail growth with the
addition of several major projects involving big-box tenants such as WalMart, The Home Depot, Canadian Tire and Future Shop.
Referring to Figure 4.2, average market retail lease rates increased slightly
from $14.39 per sf in 2009 to $14.41 in 2010. This number is down from
the $16.33 per sf in 2008 when many of the newly constructed
developments were filling vacant space. New smaller spaces (e.g. 1,500 sf)
in sought after commercial areas along Magrath are asking in the range of
$25 - $30 per sf.
As of Q1 2010, Lethbridge had 6,709,808 sf of retail space throughout the
entire city. This was spread out over 22,945,754 sf of land area and
comprised 81% of all commercial floor space within the city (office took the
remaining 19%).
The northern and southern edges of the city have experienced the highest
retail growth over the past five years, and further development is expected
in these high-profile retail locations.
West Lethbridge is the city’s fastest growing residential sector, however it
possesses only 226,538 sf of retail space, accounting for 3.4% of the total
retail inventory in the city.
The number of overall retail transactions in the Lethbridge market has gone
down from a high of 23 in 2009 to 12 in 2010, as shown in Figure 5.3. This
includes all real estate lease transactions, displaying less activity in the
retail sector.
According the Avison Young, few major retailers entered the market
between 2009 and 2010 mainly due to the anticipation of commercial land
being released in West Lethbridge to meet the demands of a growing
community combined with limited opportunities on Magrath.
This would be a primary reason for a drop in retail lease transactions. Local
retail brokers expect a rise in transactions as new retail projects start to develop
once again in late 2011 and into 2012.
Figure 4.1
Retail Transactions by Average Size
7,000
Average Size (sf)
4.1
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
2007
Figure 4.2
2008
2009
2010
Retail Average Lease Rates
$17.00
$16.00
$15.00
$14.00
$13.00
$12.00
$11.00
$10.00
2007
Figure 4.3
2008
2009
2010
Annual Retail Transactions
25
20
15
10
5
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
26
4.3
ALBERTA CONSUMER RETAIL SPENDING
Alberta has typically fared well in consumer spending due to its general
economic stability over the past few years, especially when compared to
spending patterns south of the border in the United States, which fell
noticeably during the economic recession.
Alberta did see a slight dip in retail spending during parts of 2008 and 2009,
however growth has returned and consumers are spending in higher
volumes again, similar to pre-recession levels, according to the Conference
Board of Canada.
The growth in year-over retail sales in Alberta between November 2009 and
2010 was the highest in the country at 8.8% according to Statistics Canada.
Furthermore, Alberta featured seven straight months of positive retail
growth between June and December 2010.
Retail sales for the province hit $5.2 billion in November 2010, which is the
highest level of sales in Alberta since early 2008, demonstrating renewed
consumer confidence and a surge in retail activity.
4.4
RETAIL FORECAST 2011 & BEYOND
Avison Young expects a continued positive outlook into the Spring of 2011
for the retail market within Lethbridge. Strong residential growth, especially
in West Lethbridge, will allow for sustainable investment in the retail sector.
Major retail developments in 2011 are the Save-On-Foods development in
West Lethbridge, the continued revitalization of Lethbridge Centre with the
“Shops on 4th” and ongoing densification of retail within South Lethbridge as
several retail parcels are expected to be completed in the coming year,
especially in and around the Coulee Creek Commons project.
4.5
COMPETITIVE RETAIL PROJECTS
Competition is always a significant component when evaluating Lethbridge’s
supply and demand metrics. In particular, the competitive influences of
major retail nodes in the Downtown Core, and South Lethbridge must be
considered to understand how the cities retail sector functions.
Accordingly, Table 4.1 and Figures 4.4 & 4.5 document the major retail
properties in Lethbridge identifying the approximate drive time to the
Crossings site, format, estimated size, tenant composition and other
performance characteristics.
27
Table 4.1 Lethbridge Competitive Retail Summary
LETHBRIDGE MAJOR COMPETITIVE RETAIL SUMMARY
NO.
NAME
LOCATION
DRIVETIME TO
CROSSINGS
APPROXAMITE VACANCY
(%)
RENTAL
PERFORMANCE
1
West Lethbridge
Towne Centre
West
5 minutes
Power Centre
103,000
Safeway, Home
Hardware
2%
$30 / SF
2
Mic Mac Plaza
West
5 minutes
Strip Retail
11,805
Pizza Hut
Nil
$15 to $ 20 / SF
3
Heritage Heights
Plaza
West
7 minutes
Community Retail
40,000
Tim Hortons, Pasta
Fresco
RBC, UPS Store, Liquor Store
5%
-
4
West Village Mall
West
5 minutes
Community Retail
56,000
Shoppers Drug Mart
TD Canada Trust, KFC,
Movie Gallery, Dairy Queen,
Mac's, Ultracuts
4%
-
5
Lethbridge Centre
Downtown
8 minutes
Enclosed Mall
330,000
The Bay
TD Canada Trust, Fountain
Tire, Centre Optical
-
$10 to $15 / SF
6
Park Place Mall
Downtown
10 minutes
Enclosed Mall
473,903
Sears, Galaxy Cinemas,
Winners
Michaels, Pier 1 Imports,
Staples, Sport Chek,
Chapters
2%
-
7
Centre Village Mall
North
12 minutes
Enclosed Mall
420,000
Canadian Tire, Zellers
Future Shop, Mark's Work
Warehouse, Save-On Foods
7%
-
8
Plaza 1
North
12 minutes
Strip Retail
60,000
Dollarama
Aaron's, LA MarketPlace
-
-
9
Park Meadows Mall
North
17 minutes
Strip Retail
120,000
Safeway
Pizza Hut, Galaxy Bowling
5%
-
Nil
-
Nil
-
Nil
-
-
-
Nil
-
-
$18 to $30/ SF
FORMAT
EST. SIZE (SF)
ANCHORS
10
Wal-Mart North
North
20 minutes
Power Centre
276,760
11
Uplands Common
North
20 minutes
Community Retail
53,392
12
Southview Shopping
Centre
South
12 minutes
Power Centre
157,633
13
College Centre
South
12 minutes
Strip Retail
89,113
14
Wal-Mart South
South
15 minutes
Power Centre
324,749
15
Coulee Creek
Common
South
15 minutes
Power Centre
115,000
Source: MXD Development Strategists, City of Lethbridge, Tiger Realty,
Bankers Commercial, Avison Young
OTHER PRIMARY TENANTS
Scotiabank, Liquor Depot,
Panago, Blockbuster,
McDonalds, Dollar Store
Taco Time, Liquor Store,
Convenience Store
Shoppers Drug Mart, Tim
Wal-Mart Supercentre
Hortons, Reitmans,
Dollarama
Original Joe's, Supercuts,
Sobey's
Liquor Depot
Real Canadian
Office Depot, Movie Mill,
Wholesale Club
Value Village
Gold's Gym, Blockbuster,
Shoppers Drug Mart Boston Pizza, Montana's, TD
Canada Trust
Best Buy, Ashley Furniture,
Wal-Mart Supercentre Mark's Work Wearhouse,
Tony Roma's
PetSmart, Swiss Chalet,
The Brick, Future Shop
Dollarama, Bell Store
* All Lease Rates Listed as NNN
28
Figure 4.4 Lethbridge Competitive Retail Map
10
11
9
6
3
7
8
5
1
2
4
1.
West Lethbridge Towne Centre
2.
Mic Mac Plaza
3.
Heritage Heights Plaza
4.
West Village Mall
5.
Lethbridge Centre
6.
Park Place Mall
7.
Centre Village Mall
8.
Plaza 1
9.
Park Meadows Mall
10.
Wal-Mart North
11.
Uplands Common
12.
Southview Shopping Centre
13.
College Centre
14.
Wal-Mart South
15.
Coulee Creek Common
12
13
14 15
29
Figure 4.5 Lethbridge Major Commercial Corridors
4.6
MAJOR COMMERCIAL CORRIDORS
The major retail corridors in Lethbridge occur in three
primary areas, downtown, 13th Street North and Mayor
Magrath Drive South, as shown in Figure 4.5.
In Downtown Lethbridge, a large portion of the city’s
financial services are located within a few blocks of each
other with TD Waterhouse, Canadian Western, ATB
Financial, CIBC, RBC, and BMO. Retail outlets include
coffee shops, restaurants, specialty clothing, thrift stores,
dental, optical, hair salons and specialty retail.
13th Street North is an older commercial corridor made up
primarily of retail strip malls. Convenience stores,
grocery stores, fast food, ethnic cuisine, second-hand
stores, medical offices and local independent retailers
take up the majority of space. This corridor would be
primarily used by North side residents.
Mayor Magrath features the largest amount of retail in
the City of Lethbridge, containing several destination
Power Centres and large format tenants that draw
customers from within the city and the region. Almost
every national retail outlet located within Lethbridge has
a store along Mayor Magrath, making it the largest
competitor to the future retail offering at the Crossings.
Although West Lethbridge is clearly a retail market with
strong latent demand and excellent potential, the subject
development site does face some challenges for retail
development, as documented in Figure.4.6.
- Commercial Corridor
30
Downtown Lethbridge Main Street Project
 Downtown Lethbridge Business Revitalization Zone (BRZ) was formed in
1987.
 Lethbridge Main Street Project initiated in 2000 to play an integral role in
revitalizing the downtown core through building rehabilitation projects.
 Project receives up to $75,000 annually.
 Nineteen buildings and thirty-two signage projects have been completed
over the past ten years.
 The most visible work has occurred along 6th Street, in-between 3rd
Avenue and 4th Avenue where restoration efforts have created a walkable
and pleasant main street for downtown.
 Similar restoration is occurring along 5th and 7th Streets.
 Commercial mix is focused towards specialty apparel, bridal, hair salon,
spas, specialty retail, coffee shops, locally owned restaurants, and
entertainment.
 The Main Street Project has created a retail destination that is bringing
more Lethbridge residents back into the downtown core, especially
among the younger population.
Lethbridge Centre – Shops on 4th
 Purchased by Melcor and Kingsett in 2008.
 Aside from The Bay (133,043 sf), much of the retail space has been repositioned and re-leased for medical services, health & wellness and
office space.
 North side of Lethbridge Centre is to be re-developed into the “Shops on
4th”, with 29,500 sf. of retail space for shops and restaurants.
 The project will feature an outdoor plaza to act as a central gathering
place in downtown Lethbridge.
 Expected completion for the revitalization of Lethbridge Centre is 2014.
 A 17,000 sf pharmacy is also proposed for the ground level of the mall.
31
Figure 4.6 Future Retail Land Use
Most large format retailers entering
the market will prefer to be near the
highway intersection.
Downtown’s ongoing
Renaissance could
provide significant
competition to a West
side mixed-use project.
Local arterials located away from
highway interchanges typically
support only community-level
retailing (not regional).
The Lethbridge market’s
relatively small size
suggests that it can
support only a limited
number of boutique-sized
tenants well-suited to a
Mixed-Use shopping
street.
The site is strategically placed to
capitalize on future residential
development.
32
4.7
COMPETITIVE RETAIL SUMMARY
Recent growth in the retail sector has occurred along Mayor Magrath Drive
in South Lethbridge over the past five years.
Between 19th Avenue S and 40th Avenue S, Mayor Magrath is a conurbation
of large format and strip retail with national brands, grocery and a house &
home cluster. Due to its large offering, this area has become a one-stop
shop for shopping for residents of Lethbridge and regional residents in
surrounding communities.
Enclosed malls including the popular Park Place Mall in downtown
Lethbridge, along with the revitalized urban core represent strong
destinations for shoppers, enjoying a central location to all residents in the
city with a depth and variety of branded and specialty shops and services.
The 26th Avenue N corridor has also begun to expand with its retail offering,
including a new Wal-Mart Supercentre project, however these projects in
the northern outskirts of the city have had trouble attracting foot traffic
according to local brokers and many retailers are not meeting projected
sales, with the exception of food & beverage for whom the daytime
employment base provides strong patterns of patronage.
West Lethbridge, as indicated in Table 4.1, only contains smaller retail
projects, the largest being the 103,000 sf West Lethbridge Towne Centre.
While the future addition of a new Save-On-Foods across the street will help
accommodate current grocery demand, the West side is still heavily
underserved in the retail sector, forcing its 30,000+ residents to drive
downtown or to South Lethbridge for many daily necessities.
Retail throughout Lethbridge, aside from the downtown core is also very
disjointed and lacks continuity among its many developments, especially
along Mayor Magrath. There are no pedestrian friendly retail areas,
especially in West Lethbridge.
4.8
LETHBRIDGE RETAIL TENANTS
Lethbridge contains many national retail stores such as Canadian Tire, London
Drugs, Sport Mart, Real Canadian Superstore, Sobeys and Winners.
Over the past decade, American retailers have slowly entered the Canadian
market due to stable Canadian spending patterns, and many have landed in
Lethbridge such as Best Buy, Pier 1 Imports and Wal-Mart. New American
retailers, such as Target and Kohl’s are now exploring opportunities to expand
their portfolios into Canada in the next five to seven years.
With continued American expansion, retailers such as Marshalls, Dollar Tree and
Dick’s Sporting Goods will be opening their first Canadian stores in 2011.
Table 4.2 displays the major retailers that are currently operating in Lethbridge as
of 2010. Tables 4.3 and 4.4 display retail tenants that are popular within Alberta,
the amount of outlets they have within the province, and the amount that are
currently in Lethbridge.
Many Full-Service restaurants that are prominent in Alberta such as Chili’s,
Milestones, Kelsey’s and Joey’s have yet to open in Lethbridge, which provides a
potential opportunity for the Crossings as there is pent up demand for quality
restaurants in West Lethbridge.
Limited-Service restaurants such as Cobbs Bread and Fatburger also have yet to
enter the Lethbridge market.
While there is a small home furnishings cluster in South Lethbridge, certain
retailers such as Bed, Bath and Beyond, Home Outfitters and Home Sense are not
yet represented in the Lethbridge market.
Quality restaurants are also lacking in West Lethbridge, with only several
pubs and Pasta Fresco serving the local market.
The Crossings development has the potential over time to become the
central shopping and service core for West Lethbridge.
Many of Canada’s most popular national retailers are already located in
Lethbridge, however due to the rapid population expansion of West
Lethbridge, opportunities for potential additional or second location for
retail stores are expected over the next 5 to 10 years as demand is
warranted.
33
Table 4.2 Major Lethbridge Retailers
Major Lethbridge Retailers 2010
Ashley Home Furnishings
Best Buy
Blockbuster Video
Canada Safeway
Canadian Tire
Challenger Building Supplies
Chapters
Costco
Future Shop
Giant Tiger
Home Depot
Home Hardware
Homes Alive Pet Centre
Jysk
Leons
London Drugs
Marks Work Warehouse
Michaels
Office Depot
Peavey Mart
Pet Land
Pet Smart
Pier 1
Princess Auto
Real Canadian SuperStore
Real Canadian Wholesale
Rogers Video
Save-on-Foods
Safeway
Sears
Shoppers Drug Mart
Sobeys
Sport Chek
Sport Mart
Staples
The Bay
The Brick
Totem
Toys R Us
United Furniture Warehouse
Visions
Wal-Mart
Winners
Zellers
4.9 COMPETITIVE RETAIL VOID ANALYSIS SUMMARY
To further analyze the potential retail composition and positioning of the
Crossings, a Retail Void Analysis, as shown in Table 4.5, for the Lethbridge
trade area was performed that identifies opportunities for certain retail
categories within the Crossings.
This Void Analysis takes drive time into consideration, as the farther away the
competition is, the lower it factors into the Crossings project opportunity.
Due to the low amount of retail within West Lethbridge, combined with the
distance of the Mayor Magrath retail corridor, many categories within
Convenience and Comparison shopping are underserved including Grocery
and Specialty Foods, Personal Services, and General Merchandise and
Warehouse Clubs.
General Merchandise and Warehouse Clubs which would include such stores
as Costco and Wal-Mart are all located far enough away to not present a
strong competitive influence over the Crossings project.
The retail void analysis also displays a strong need for both quality Full-Service
and Limited-Service Restaurants, as well as Family Entertainment venues.
The city as a whole lacks a cluster of family sit-down style restaurants that are
located within a pleasing pedestrian friendly environment that also provides
services and amenities to the community.
Since people typically will travel further for brand name items such as clothing,
shoes, jewelry and accessories, the large amount of these types of retail
currently located in the downtown core (including Park Place Mall), negates a
high project opportunity at the Crossings.
34
Table 4.3 Retail Tenant Void/Opportunity Analysis
Name
Chapters
HMV
Addition Elle
American Apparel
American Eagle
Children's Place
Claire's
La Senza
Lululemon
Old Navy
The GAP
Value Village
Victoria's Secret
West 49
Bath & Body Works
Applebees
Brown's Social House
Chili's
Chuck E Cheese
Coza Tuscan Grill
Denny's
Earls
Joey's
Kelsey's
Milestone's
Montana's Cookhouse
Moxies
Old Spaghetti Factory
Olive Garden
Outback Steak House
Red Lobster
Red Robin
Ric's Grill
The Keg
The Mongolie Grill
Tony Roma's
Category
Books & Multi-Media
Books & Multi-Media
Clothing Stores
Clothing Stores
Clothing Stores
Clothing Stores
Clothing Stores
Clothing Stores
Clothing Stores
Clothing Stores
Clothing Stores
Clothing Stores
Clothing Stores
Clothing Stores
Beauty & Cosmetics
Full Service Restaurants
Alta.
Lethbridge
12
21
18
4
10
13
19
30
8
7
13
11
3
12
8
3
0
11
3
0
17
24
8
10
4
16
15
4
3
3
5
4
9
16
3
17
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
1
0
0
1
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
Typical Formats
Power Centres, Lifestyle Centres, Malls & Regional Malls
Power Centres, Lifestyle Centres, Regional Malls
Lifestyle Centres, Regional Malls, Community Strip Centres
Power Centres, Lifestyle Centres, Malls, Community Strip Centres
Malls & Regional Malls
Large Format
Lifestyle Centres, Malls & Regional Malls
Lifestyle Centres, Pad Site/Outparcel, Community Strip Centres
Power Centre
Pad Site/Outparcel, Community Strip Centre
Lifestyle Centres, Power Centres, Pad Site/Outparcel
Power Centres, Lifestyle Centres, Community Strip Centres
Neighbourhood Lifestyle Centres/Hotels
Size Range(SF)
20,000 - 30,000
3,000 - 5,000
5,000 - 7,000
2,500 - 3,000
4,000 - 6,000
4,500 - 5,500
800 - 1,200
3,000 - 4,000
2,000 - 3,500
15,000 - 20,000
7,000 - 12,000
20,000 - 30,000
3,500 - 5,000
2,500 - 4,000
2,000 - 3,000
5,000 - 7,000
2,900 - 4,000
5,550 - 6,300
8,000 - 12,000
5,900 - 6,500
4,700 - 5,400
6,000 - 10,000
6,000 - 8,500
6,000 - 7,000
6000 - 9000
5,000 - 6,000
6,500 - 8,000
12,000 - 14,000
7,000 - 9,000
5,500 - 6,500
7,000 - 9,000
5,700 - 6,400
5,000 - 6,000
8,000 - 12,000
2,500 - 5,000
5,500 - 7,000
Average
Size(SF)
24,000
4,000
6,100
2,750
5,000
5,000
1,000
3,500
2,900
18,000
9,000
23,500
4,200
3,200
2,370
5,700
3,200
6,000
10,000
6,200
5,000
7,000
7,000
6,500
8,000
5,500
7,300
13,000
8,000
6,000
8,000
5,800
5,500
10,000
4,000
6,125
35
Table 4.4 Retail Tenant Void/Opportunity Analysis Continued
Name
Walmart
Costco
XS Cargo
Best Buy
Future Shop
Ashley Furniture
Bed Bath & Beyond
Home Outfitters
Home Sense
Jysk
Lazy Boy Gallery
Leon's
Pier 1 Imports
Sleep Country
Cobbs Bread
Cold Stone Creamery
Fatburger
London Drugs
Aldo
Footlocker
Running Room
Shoe Warehouse
The Shoe Company
GNC
Michaels
Camper's Village
Hockey Life
Wholesale Sports
Toys r Us
Toys r Us Express
Category
Gen. Merchandisers/Warehouse Clubs
Home Electronics & Appliances
Home Furnishings & Accessories
Limited Service Restaurant
Pharmacy
Shoe Stores
Shoe Stores
Shoe Stores
Shoe Stores
Shoe Stores
Specialty Retail
Specialty Retail
Sporting Goods & Outdoor Recreation
Toys & Hobbies
Toys & Hobbies
Alta.
Lethbridge
47
14
7
10
17
8
7
9
9
9
4
6
11
19
14
8
6
21
26
15
18
15
11
22
13
3
4
5
9
5
2
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
1
0
1
1
1
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
0
0
1
1
0
Typical Formats
Power Centres
Power Centres
Strip Centres & Power Centres
Power Centres, Lifestyle Centres
Power Centre, Lifestyle Centre, Regional Malls
Power Centres, Lifestyle Centres, Malls
Lifestyle Centres, Community Strip Centres
Community Strip Centres, Lifestyle Centres
Malls & Regional Malls, Lifestyle Centres
Power Centre, Lifestyle Centre, Community Strip Centres
Community Strip Centres & Main Streets
Malls & Regional Malls, Community Strip Centres
Size Range(SF)
100,000 - 200,000
73,000 - 205,000
8,000 - 12,000
30,000 - 36,000
18,000 - 32,000
30,000 - 50,000
20,000 - 50,000
28,000 - 35,000
20,000 - 30,000
20,000 - 30,000
9,000 - 20,000
40,000 - 88,000
8,000 - 11,000
3,500 - 5,500
1,000 - 1,500
900 - 2,000
1,800 - 2,200
17,000 - 37,000
1,500 - 2,000
1500 - 2400
1,700 - 2,300
3,000 - 4,000
8,000 - 12,000
1,100 - 1,600
17,000 - 22,000
9,000 -14,000
20,000 - 35,000
40,000 - 50,000
40,000 - 60,000
3,000 - 5,000
Average
Size(SF)
150,000
142,000
9,000
33,000
27,000
40,000
30,600
32,000
25,000
23,000
15,000
53,000
9,900
4,200
1,200
1,400
2,000
34,000
1,750
2,400
2,000
3,500
10,000
1,500
18,300
11,000
27,000
45,000
50,000
4,000
36
Table 4.5 Competitive Retail Void Analysis
Competitive Influence on Project
(Based on Tenant Representation and Drive Time to Project)
CONVENIENCE
COMPARISON
(Subject to Demographic &
Expenditure Analysis)
West Lethbridge
Downtown Core
13th Street N Corridor
North Lethbridge
Grocery & Specialty Foods
LOW
LOW
LOW
LOW
LOW
LOW
HIGH
Pharmacy
LOW
MED
LOW
LOW
LOW
MED
MED
Alcohol & Tobacco
LOW
LOW
LOW
LOW
LOW
LOW
HIGH
Personal Services
LOW
MED
LOW
LOW
LOW
LOW
HIGH
Department Stores
LOW
HIGH
LOW
LOW
LOW
LOW
HIGH
Clothing Stores
LOW
HIGH
LOW
LOW
LOW
LOW
HIGH
Shoe Stores
LOW
HIGH
LOW
LOW
LOW
LOW
HIGH
Jewelry Stores
LOW
MED
LOW
LOW
LOW
LOW
HIGH
Health & Beauty
LOW
MED
LOW
LOW
LOW
LOW
HIGH
LOW
LOW
LOW
LOW
MED
LOW
HIGH
LOW
LOW
LOW
LOW
MED
LOW
HIGH
Home Improvement & Gardening
LOW
LOW
LOW
LOW
MED
LOW
HIGH
Books & Multimedia
LOW
MED
LOW
LOW
LOW
LOW
HIGH
LOW
MED
LOW
LOW
MED
LOW
HIGH
Toys & Hobbies
LOW
MED
LOW
LOW
LOW
LOW
HIGH
Miscellaneous Specialty Retail
LOW
MED
LOW
LOW
MED
MED
MED
General Merchandisers & Warehouse Clubs
LOW
LOW
LOW
LOW
MED
LOW
HIGH
LOW
MED
LOW
LOW
LOW
LOW
HIGH
Limited Service Restaurants
LOW
MED
LOW
LOW
LOW
LOW
HIGH
Family Entertainment & Concessions
LOW
MED
LOW
LOW
LOW
LOW
HIGH
Pubs, Bars & Nightclubs
LOW
MED
LOW
LOW
LOW
MED
MED
1
10
12
20
18
Retail Category
LEISURE
Project Opportunity
Average Level of
Competition
Mayor Magrath S
Corridor
Drive Time to Site (Minutes)
37
5.0 Retail Market Demand Analysis
5.1
INTRODUCTION
Building upon the Trade Area demographic profile analysis, a study was
made of area’s retail spending profile. This provides a more refined
understanding of the opportunity for additional retailing within the Crossings
project. The key questions it seeks to answer are:
A Retail Market Analysis was undertaken for the Crossings development to
determine the feasibility, optimal mix and revenue potential for this
component at the project.
 How much do Trade Area residents spend on Convenience retail (such as
Grocery and Pharmacy), on Comparison retail (such as Fashion and Home
Furnishings), and Leisure (Food & Beverage and Entertainment)?
Lethbridge has weathered the economic downturn relatively well. The real
estate market did experience a downturn by 2010, but recent indicators
suggest a resurgence in investment interest.
 What distinguishing features does the Trade Area expenditure profile
demonstrate? And how is this profile expected to change over the
forecast horizon?
The majority of retail development has occurred in North and South
Lethbridge, with relatively little growth in inventory on the West side.
 What additional expenditure potential can be derived from other
potential target markets, most notably tourism?
Detailed information of retail spending within the Trade Area was collected
from Statistics Canada and Environics Analytics Western Canada, a leading
supplier of demographic and consumer expenditure information. The data
was collected at a detailed micro-geographic scale for individual street
blocks. This data was then aggregated to its respective Trade sub-region in
order to build a working profile.
Consequently, West Lethbridge is under-retailed, with very little in the way of
destination fare in particular (comparison shopping, full-service restaurants
and entertainment).
West Lethbridge residents are reportedly particularly eager to see an
expansion in retail facilities in their neighbourhood.
Avison & Young report that few major retailers have entered the market since
2009, and that this is in part out of anticipation of commercial land being
released in West Lethbridge.
Each of the major three categories of spending (Convenience, Comparison
and Leisure) were further sub-divided into 21 minor retail categories in order
to improve overall precision of the analysis.
The initial task involved developing an understanding of how Trade Area
residents spend their shopping and leisure dollars on a per capita basis. Once
this Trade Area shopping “profile” was established, the data was aggregated
by population to quantify the size of the Trade Area retail market.
A comparison of this spending information (“demand”) with the competitive
analysis (“supply”) findings provides additional insight into potential
development opportunities.
38
5.2 Demographic Profile
A Demographic Analysis was undertaken to understand not the just the
amount (sf) of retail likely in demand over the coming years but also the type
of shops, dining and entertainment of which local residents will be supportive.
Population growth is the driving force of retail development. In this regard,
West Lethbridge has grown quickly in recent years as shown in Figure 5.1 and is
now the most populous of the three Lethbridge districts. This rapid growth is
expected to continue over the next decade.
Figure 5.1 Lethbridge Population Growth by Major District, 1989 - 2010
West Lethbridge has grown into the most
populated of the city’s three major districts.
39
Figure 5.2 illustrates that Income in Lethbridge is approximately the Canadian
average, but significantly below the Provincial average.
Figure 5.2 Lethbridge Income Comparison
The cost-of-living is relatively low locally, however, resulting in above-average
levels of disposable income, including spending on shopping, dining and
entertainment.
It is also important to keep in mind that the relatively large number of
University students in the city will also act to lower the average income levels,
and serves to understate the level of employment income earned by full-time
workers in the area.
The entire Lethbridge market is very automobile dependent (Figure 5.3),
which has important implications on site planning and design, whereby the
majority of residents will access the site’s commercial, civic and recreational
functions by automobile, even though Transit is available and will be
increased as development builds out.
Age profile also has a profound impact on retail spending patterns.
Accordingly, Figures 5.4 & 5.5 illustrates that Lethbridge has a bi-polar age
profile with above-average levels of young adults (students) and retirees.
Figure 5.3 Automobile as Primary Mode of Transport
30 to 54 year olds are not as prominent in the local market, reflecting an
outflow of working age people to other communities. This has also been the
slowest growing segment over the past 10 years.
As evidenced in Figure 5.6, over the past decade , young adults (20-29) and
near retirees (55-64) grew at more than double the average in Lethbridge.
Conversely, children, middle-aged (35-39) and retirees (65+) did not grow
nearly as quickly.
Forecasts indicated that retirees and 25-34 year-olds should be the fastest
growing segments in coming years and therefore represent key target
markets for residential, retail and office/employment opportunities.
40
Figure 5.4
Lethbridge Age Cohort Comparison with Alberta
Greater presence of young adults and retirees.
Outflow of working-age people and their children.
41
Figure 5.5 Lethbridge Age Cohort Growth, 2001 - 2010
Rapid growth in 20-29
year-olds and 55-64
year-olds.
42
5.3 Retail Trade Area Delineation
A Trade Area was delineated for the potential retail project. A Trade Area is
the geographic region from which a retail centre will draw regular
patronage. Identifying the likely Trade Area is important to understanding
the total market potential available to the development from the local
residential base as well as its particular demographic and spending nuances.
This provides clues as to the type of retail tenants that are wanted and
supportable in the market.
A Trade Area is typically subdivided to provide a more refined analysis of
the project’s retail opportunity. These subdivisions include a Primary Trade
Area (PTA) from which the majority of local Trade Area business is expected
to originate from. Additional Trade Area business is typically sourced from
the more remote Secondary Trade Area (STA). Shoppers from the STA are
likely to be sourced on an infrequent basis for a destination trip.
Additional business is also anticipated from other Miscellaneous Sources
such as on-site workers and people working in the local area. These sources
are analyzed separately from the Trade Area in the following report
sections.
The major considerations in delineating a retail Trade Area are outlined in
Table 5.1. These principles were applied to the development to determine
its anticipated future Trade Area. Figure 5.6 outlines the Trade Area
boundaries.
Table 5.1
Trade Area Boundary Determinants
1.
Transportation networks, including streets and highways, which affect
access, travel times (Figures 5.6 & 5.7), commuting and employment
distribution patterns;
2.
Major infrastructure projects both planned or under development which
will affect future travel patterns;
3.
The development vision, including an understanding of its site
characteristics and potential target ‘audience’;
4.
The local and regional competitive retail environment, including future
competitors under proposal or development;
5.
The project’s proposed non-retail generative uses and their relationship
within the wider market;
6.
Significant natural and man-made barriers (e.g. water features, highways
and industrial areas);
7.
De facto barriers resulting from notable socio-economic differentiation;
8.
Patterns of existing and future residential and commercial development.
The PTA encompasses the City of Lethbridge while the Secondary Trade
Area includes those areas recognized as the City’s existing catchment
region.
Drive times were also integrated into the Retail Analysis to estimate the
patronage patterns to the retail project from within Lethbridge. These
Drive Times are illustrated in Figure 5.7.
While most of the city’s residents live within a brief commute to the site,
the West-East divide in travel patterns will likely constrain patronage from
East Lethbridge residents to an extent.
43
Figure 5.6
Retail Trade Area
44
Figure 5.7
Drive Time Areas from Site
45
5.4 Retail Demand Analysis
Having established the Trade Area boundaries, population and demographic
profile, the size of the retail market and its anticipated growth was projected
using retail spending data from Environics Analytics Inc.
Detailed
expenditure tables for each Trade Area are provided in Appendix A.
As illustrated in Figure 5.8, Lethbridge residents represent the largest
potential market ($1.2 Billion) of the entire $2.1 Billion retail market
available to the development. West Lethbridge is anticipated to grow
rapidly in importance over the 2013-2020 period (from $502 million to $756
million) while other markets are slated to grow more moderately.
Figure 5.8
Total Retail & Leisure Expenditure, 2013 & 2020
Also included in the list of potential markets was the traveler base visiting
Lethbridge, of which over a quarter are Tourists, Tour Groups and Convention
Groups, all important sources of retail spending.
Business travelers also represent an important source of Food & Beverage
spending, and they represent 26.7% of visitors to the Alberta South Tourist
Development Region (“TDR”), as shown in Figure 5.9.
Based upon the supply of accommodation facilities, occupancy rates and the
Alberta South visitor profile illustrated below (and detailed further in Section
10.0) , the Lethbridge tourist retail market is estimated at $32.2 million in 2013,
growing to $43.9 million by 2020.
Figure 5.9
Alberta South Room Demand by TDR
Total Market Size:
2013: $2.1 Billion
2020: $2.8 Billion
46
Table 5.2
Recommended Retail Tenant Mix at Build-Out (sf)
Required
Capture Rate
% of Mix
2013
RETAIL PROGRAM
CONVENIENCE
Retail Category
52,000
12.5%
4.3%
Pharmacy
5,000
1.2%
6.2%
Alcohol & Tobacco
4,100
1.0%
2.0%
Personal Services
20,000
4.8%
5.2%
Department Stores
-
0.0%
0.0%
45,000
10.8%
21.5%
Shoe Stores
4,000
1.0%
17.3%
Jewelry & Accessories Stores
1,500
0.4%
5.7%
Health & Beauty
4,000
1.0%
1.1%
30,000
7.2%
7.8%
15,000
3.6%
20.4%
20,000
4.8%
13.1%
5,000
1.2%
3.0%
12,000
2.9%
19.5%
Toys & Hobbies
10,000
2.4%
14.0%
6,000
1.4%
21.4%
123,000
29.6%
11.7%
30,000
7.2%
14.5%
15,000
3.6%
11.1%
6,000
1.4%
4.8%
7,500
1.8%
11.8%
415,100
100.0%
7.5%
COMPARISON
Clothing Stores
A Retail Development Program was created based
upon the research and analysis. This resulted in a
Detailed Floorspace Mix as articulated in Table 5.2 for
each of the respective merchandise/store type
categories.
The analysis in Table 5.2 and Figure 5.10 indicates that
the market can support a development of
approximately 415,000 sf by 2020.
Books & Multimedia
The program would require 7.5% of the entire market
in 2013 and could include in its early stages a
Convenience program of 81,100 sf, which could also
include personal services such as Banks, Auto
Insurance etc.
This retail program does not suggest that the full
development should be built now, but rather a phasing
strategy would be most pragmatic in accommodating
trade area growth and market demand.
Miscellaneous Specialty
LEISURE
The Comparison program is recommended for 275,500
sf and would likely be part of a phased development
strategy along with the Leisure program which could
be in the range of 72,500 sf.
Mix SF
Total
47
Figure 5.10
Recommended Retail Program at Build-Out (sf)
Convenience
81,100 sf
(20%)
Comparison
275,500 sf
(66%)
Leisure
58,500 sf
(14%)
48
Figure 5.11
Table 5.3 reveals a required Capture Rate of 7.5% in 2013 is expected to
decline to 6.2% by 2020. This is considered achievable based upon industry
benchmarks and given the magnitude of competition in West Lethbridge,
though caution should be exercised as it relates to the existing competition in
South Lethbridge along Mayor Magrath Drive.
Estimated Source of Business (at Build-Out)
A total of $154 million in sales is forecast in 2013, growing to $171 million by
2020.
Figure 5.11 documents the Source of Business for retail sales. Accordingly,
approximately 78% of business is expected to be sourced from the Primary
Trade Area; 19% from the Secondary Trade Area, 2% from On-Site Sources
and 3% from Tourists.
Table 5.3
Retail Capture Rate Model Summary
2013
ALL CATEGORIES
Primary Trade Area
PTA West Lethbridge
PTA East Lethbridge
Secondary Trade Area
STA 30 minute DTZ
STA North
STA Southwest
STA Southeast
On-Site Sources
On-Site Residential
Hotel Guests
Off-Site Tourist Base
Total
Target Sales PSF
Warranted Floorspace SF
Aggregate
Expenditure
$1,212,825,834
$502,353,258
$710,472,576
$851,791,344
$197,664,850
$138,903,395
$357,423,627
$157,799,472
$11,816,473
$10,091,667
$1,428,084
$32,179,333
$2,108,612,984
2020
% of Business % Capture Rate
77.8%
49.1%
28.7%
18.0%
6.0%
2.6%
6.6%
2.9%
1.9%
1.6%
0.3%
2.3%
100.0%
Required Sales
Aggregate
Expenditure
10.1% $122,397,072 $1,635,917,409
15.4%
$77,225,385 $755,582,417
6.4%
$45,171,687 $880,334,992
3.3%
$28,401,880 $1,098,115,564
4.8%
$9,421,107 $264,500,284
2.9%
$4,030,557 $177,020,370
2.9%
$10,371,353 $455,497,290
2.9%
$4,578,864 $201,097,620
25.0%
$2,952,177
$39,604,715
24.8%
$2,507,758
$37,234,434
31.1%
$444,419
$1,640,419
11.2%
$3,604,867
$43,938,507
7.5% $157,355,996 $2,817,576,195
$379
415,100
% of Business
77.5%
53.7%
23.8%
16.9%
5.6%
2.4%
6.2%
2.7%
3.8%
3.7%
0.2%
1.8%
100.0%
% Capture
Rate
Required Sales
8.2% $134,404,440
11.9% $90,103,683
5.0% $44,300,757
2.6% $28,971,646
3.8%
$9,948,354
2.3%
$4,039,645
2.3% $10,394,552
2.3%
$4,589,094
18.9%
$7,475,545
19.0%
$7,083,371
23.9%
$392,174
8.6%
$3,789,121
6.2% $174,640,751
$421
415,100
49
The required Capture Rates, as shown in Figures 5.12 & 5.13 vary by retail
category, with the highest required rates for Comparison categories such as
Fashion and Home Goods.
In the early years, the perceived level of risk based on market-driven demand is
high necessitating a Phasing Strategy for years 1 to 4. in which categories such as
Conveniences could be introduced with less evidence of impact and risk.
Required Capture Rates that exceed 15% represent a higher level of risk for
development in this market, indicating a retail program which may need to
be phased in over the initial years of operation.
Over time however as West Lethbridge’s residential development and
population continues to grow, the required Capture Rates for most retail
categories decline (refer to Figure 5.13) to more reasonable levels, although
Fashion may continue to represent a challenge in the face of existing market
competition.
Figure 5.12
Required Capture Rate from All Sources of Business (2013)
50
Over time however as West Lethbridge’s residential development and
population continues to grow, the required Capture Rates for most retail
categories decline (refer to Figure 5.13) to more reasonable levels, although
Fashion may continue to represent a challenge in the face of existing market
competition.
For those categories that may exhibit higher risk, the mix may be shifted at
such time to potentially respond to new opportunities or areas that are
proving to be high in demand (e.g. Food & Beverage).
Figure 5.13
Required Capture Rate of Full Retail Program (2020)
The retail program was further refined as articulated in Table 5.4 by assigning
the floorspace to Anchor, Mini Anchor and Inline tenants.
Approximately 45% of space is recommended for Anchor stores in the form of a
52,000 sf Grocery and 100,000 sf General Merchandiser. In addition, three to
four junior box tenants ranging in size from 10,000 to 20,000 sf are also
envisioned to be included in the merchandise mix.
The balance of the recommended retail program includes 42 Inline and other
Mini-Anchor tenants.
51
Table 5.4
Recommended Retail Tenant Mix (at Build-Out)
Warranted Floorspace
by Retail Category
Pharmacy
Alcohol & Tobacco
Personal Services
Department Stores
Clothing Stores
Shoe Stores
Jewelry & Accessories
Health & Beauty
Books & Multimedia
Toys & Hobbies
Miscellaneous Specialty
Total
Percent of Total Floorspace
Anchors
GLA
2012
52,000
5,000
4,100
20,000
45,000
4,000
1,500
4,000
30,000
15,000
20,000
5,000
12,000
10,000
6,000
123,000
30,000
15,000
6,000
7,500
415,100
100%
Avg
GLA sf
52,000
0
0
20,000
Units
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
Mini Anchors
Total SF
52,000
0
0
0
0
5,000
Units
1
Total SF
10,000
2
20,000
15,000
15,000
1
1
15,000
15,000
5,000
1
5,000
20,000
5,000
1
6
20,000
30,000
20,000
0
1
10,000
100,000
1
100,000
5,000
0
1
0
0
5,000
0
5
187,000
45.0%
Avg
GLA sf
5,000
0
0
0
10,000
37,400
Avg
GLA sf
Inline Tenants
4,100
4,000
0
1
5
2,083
1,333
1,500
2,000
3,750
12
3
1
2
4
5,000
3,500
1
2
1,500
3,000
4
1
0
5
1
3,000
1,000
7,500
1
8,393
14
117,500
28.3%
Units
7,500
2,633
Total SF
4,100
20,000
25,000
4,000
1,500
4,000
15,000
5,000
7,000
6,000
3,000
15,000
1,000
-
42
110,600
26.6%
52
5.5
Tenant Opportunity Summary
Further definition to the recommended retail program is made through the
following Recommended Tenant Listing which includes tenants that are wellsuited to the development opportunity.
Table 5.5 outlines various tenant recommendations that have been gathered
through the combination of market research, consumer survey data and our
previous market intelligence.
Details displayed in Table 5.5 include Typical Retail Formats, Sizes and
presence in Alberta & Edmonton. It is important to note that these tenants
have not been contacted and specific site/market real estate criteria’s
verified.
The list on the following page provides a category breakdown of the types
and tenants for whom the Crossings development could represent a
compatible market and development profile.
53
Specialty
Entertainment & Leisure
Food & Beverage
 Cabelas (80,000 sf concept)
 Gold’s Gym
 Buffalo Wild Wings
 Hockey Life
 Club Fit
 Applebees
 PetSmart
 Goodlife Fitness
 Olive Garden
 Browns Social House
House & Home
General Merchandise
 Ric’s Grill
 Lee Valley Tools
 Target
 Red Robin
 Canadian Woodworker
 Kohl’s
 Red Lobster
 Ethan Allen
 Wal-Mart
 Outback Steakhouse
 Home Sense
 Canadian Tire
 Tony Roma’s
 Fireplaces to Go
 Real Canadian Superstore
 Old Spaghetti Factory
 Sofa Unlimited
 London Drugs
 Panera Bread
 Norwalk Furniture
 Shoppers Drug Mart
 Fatburger
 Living Lighting
 Vera’s Burger Shack
 Urban Barn
Fashion
 Nando’s
 Nood (New Objects of Desire)
 Old Navy
 White Spot
 Pier 1 Imports
 Shoe Warehouse
 Salt Lick
 Lazy Boy Gallery
 Shoe Company
 Mr Mikes Steakhouse
 Home Outfitters
 Payless Shoe Source
 Five Guys Burger and Fries
 Bed Bath & Beyond
 Children’s Place
 Yogurtland
 Winners
 Marble Slab Creamery
Conveniences
 Reitmans
 Cold Stone Creamery
 Sobey’s
 Addition Elle
 Starbucks
 IGA Marketplace
 Marks Workwearhouse
 Second Cup
 Rexall
 Marshalls
 Five Guys Burger & Fries
 HSBC/CIBC/RBC/TD/BMO
 Adidas
 Chuck E. Cheese
 Credit Union
 Moores
 Schanks Sports Grill
 GNC
 Aldo
 Wok Box
 Cobs Bread
 Running Room
 Good Earth Coffeehouse &
Bakery
 Motherhood Maternity
54
Table 5.5 Retail Tenant Matrix
Name
Chapters
HMV
Addition Elle
American Apparel
American Eagle
Carter's Children's Wear
Children's Place
Claire's
La Senza
Lane Bryant
Lululemon
Old Navy
The GAP
Value Village
West 49
Applebees
Brown's Social House
Chili's
Chuck E Cheese
Coza Tuscan Grill
Denny's
Earls
Joey's
Kelsey's
Milestone's
Montana's Cookhouse
Moxies
Old Spaghetti Factory
Olive Garden
Outback Steak House
Red Lobster
Red Robin
Ric's Grill
Sawmill Steak House
The Keg
The Mongolie Grill
Tony Roma's
Category
Books & Multi-Media
Books & Multi-Media
Clothing Stores
Clothing Stores
Clothing Stores
Clothing Stores
Clothing Stores
Clothing Stores
Clothing Stores
Clothing Stores
Clothing Stores
Clothing Stores
Clothing Stores
Clothing Stores
Clothing Stores
Alta.
Edmonton
12
21
18
4
10
0
13
19
30
0
8
7
13
11
12
3
0
11
3
0
17
24
8
10
4
16
15
4
3
3
5
4
9
8
16
3
17
5
8
5
2
3
0
3
8
9
0
3
3
5
5
4
2
0
4
2
0
5
7
3
5
1
4
5
2
2
3
2
4
3
8
4
2
6
Typical Formats
Power Centres, Outlet Centres, Community Lifestyle Centres
Power Centres, Lifestyle Centres, Regional Malls, Outlet Centres
Large Format
Power Centre
Neighbourhood Lifestyle Centres/Hotels
Size Range(SF)
20,000 - 30,000
3,000 - 5,000
5,000 - 7,000
2,500 - 3,000
4,000 - 6,000
4,000 - 4,500
4,500 - 5,500
800 - 1,200
3,000 - 4,000
4,800 - 7,200
2,000 - 3,500
15,000 - 20,000
7,000 - 12,000
20,000 - 30,000
2,500 - 4,000
5,000 - 7,000
2,900 - 4,000
5,550 - 6,300
8,000 - 12,000
5,900 - 6,500
4,700 - 5,400
6,000 - 10,000
6,000 - 8,500
6,000 - 7,000
6000 - 9000
5,000 - 6,000
6,500 - 8,000
12,000 - 14,000
7,000 - 9,000
5,500 - 6,500
7,000 - 9,000
5,700 - 6,400
5,000 - 6,000
12,000 - 20,000
8,000 - 12,000
2,500 - 5,000
5,500 - 7,000
Average
Size(SF)
24,000
4,000
6,100
2,750
5,000
4,300
5,000
1,000
3,500
5,600
2,900
18,000
9,000
23,500
3,200
5,700
3,200
6,000
10,000
6,200
5,000
7,000
7,000
6,500
8,000
5,500
7,300
13,000
8,000
6,000
8,000
5,800
5,500
13,000
10,000
4,000
6,125
55
Table 5.5 Retail Tenant Matrix (Continued)
Name
Costco
XS Cargo
Best Buy
Future Shop
Ashley Furniture
Bed Bath & Beyond
Home Outfitters
Home Sense
Jysk
Lazy Boy Gallery
Leon's
Pier 1 Imports
Sleep Country
Cobbs Bread
Cold Stone Creamery
Fatburger
Panera Bread
London Drugs
Aldo
Footlocker
Running Room
Shoe Warehouse
The Shoe Company
GNC
Michaels
Camper's Village
Hockey Life
Wholesale Sports
Toys r Us
Toys r Us Express
Category
Pharmacy
Shoe Stores
Shoe Stores
Shoe Stores
Shoe Stores
Shoe Stores
Specialty Retail
Specialty Retail
Toys & Hobbies
Toys & Hobbies
Alta.
Edmonton
14
7
10
17
8
7
9
9
9
4
6
11
19
14
8
6
0
21
26
15
17
13
11
22
13
3
4
5
9
5
4
2
3
6
2
3
3
4
3
2
2
3
8
7
2
2
0
7
10
4
6
3
3
7
5
2
2
2
3
5
Typical Formats
Power Centres
Strip Centres & Power Centres
Power Centres, Lifestyle Centres, Malls
Lifestyle Centres, Community Strip Centres
Community Strip Centres, Lifestyle Centres
Malls & Regional Malls, Lifestyle Centres
Power Centres, Lifestyle Centres, Neighbourhood Strip Centres
Power Centre, Lifestyle Centre, Community Strip Centres
Community Strip Centres & Main Streets
Malls & Regional Malls, Community Strip Centres
Size Range(SF)
73,000 - 205,000
8,000 - 12,000
30,000 - 36,000
18,000 - 32,000
30,000 - 50,000
20,000 - 50,000
28,000 - 35,000
20,000 - 30,000
20,000 - 30,000
9,000 - 20,000
40,000 - 88,000
8,000 - 11,000
3,500 - 5,500
1,000 - 1,500
900 - 2,000
1,800 - 2,200
3,500 - 5,000
17,000 - 37,000
1,500 - 2,000
1500 - 2400
1,700 - 2,300
3,000 - 4,000
8,000 - 12,000
1,100 - 1,600
17,000 - 22,000
9,000 -14,000
20,000 - 35,000
40,000 - 50,000
40,000 - 60,000
3,000 - 5,000
Average
Size(SF)
142,000
9,000
33,000
27,000
40,000
30,600
32,000
25,000
23,000
15,000
53,000
9,900
4,200
1,200
1,400
2,000
4,300
34,000
1,750
2,400
2,000
3,500
10,000
1,500
18,300
11,000
27,000
45,000
50,000
4,000
56
SECTION 6.0 & 7.0
OFFICE ANALYSIS
57
6.0 Office Market Supply Analysis
6.1 LETHBRIDGE OFFICE MARKET TRENDS
The Lethbridge office market is primarily located within the downtown core
with several business parks on the outskirts of the city providing new
opportunities. The total floor space for the city was just over 1.5 million sf as
of January 2010, comprising 19% of the total commercial space. Figures 6.1,
6.2 & 6.3 document some of the key recent performance metrics of the
Lethbridge Office Market.
The office vacancy rate for Lethbridge was 16%, as of December 2010
according to Avison Young. These numbers are slightly higher than the larger
metropolitan areas of Alberta and Calgary.
Office absorption has been slow, but typical for a market the size of
Lethbridge, with approximately 10,000 sf absorbed in 2010, primarily in the
downtown core.
Lease rates (Figure 6.2) have steadily gone up, reaching an average of $12.57
per sf in 2010, up from sub $10 per sf in 2007.
Figure 6.1
Office Transactions by Average Size
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
2007
Figure 6.2
2008
2009
2010
Office Average Lease Rates
$14.00
$12.00
$10.00
The number of office transactions (Figures 6.1 & 6.3) have remained fairly
stable over the past three years, however the average size of office
transactions decreased to just 2,113 sf in 2010.
While the majority of office space continues to reside in the downtown core,
the business parks on the eastern edges are beginning to attract larger office
tenants. The proximity to financial institutions, law offices and other
complementary uses will keep most office uses in downtown for the time
being.
$8.00
$6.00
$4.00
2007
Figure 6.3
2008
2009
2010
Annual Office Transactions
20
15
10
5
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
58
Table 6.1 Lethbridge Competitive Office Summary
LETHBRIDGE MAJOR COMPETITIVE OFFICE SUMMARY
NO.
NAME
LOCATION
APPROXAMITE
VACANCY (%)
RENTAL / SALES
PERFORMANCE
FORMAT
EST. SIZE (SF)
PRIMARY TENANTS
Alberta Health Services,
Alberta Infrastructure,
SWAB Family Services,
KPMG
Nil
$15 to $18.50 / SF
1
Lethbridge Centre
Downtown
Office Tower
91,442 + office
mall tenants
2
BLT Centre
Downtown
Office Tower
51,500
HSBC
30%
$12 to $14 / SF
3
Chancery Court
Downtown
Office Tower
60,000
Blue Cross, Stantec
N/A
$10 to $18 / SF
4
Professional Building
Downtown
Office Building
38,000
Canadian Western Bank
N/A
$9 to $12 / SF
5
Paramount
Boutiques and
Professional Space
Downtown
Office Building
-
ATB Financial, Chrysalis
Healing, Stranville Group
50%
$18 to $20 / SF
6
410 Stafford Drive
Downtown
Office Building
12,000
cnib, Academy of Learning,
LACEC
33%
$8.50 / SF
7
McFarland Building
Downtown
Office Building
14,000
Blueprint Entertainment
15%
$10.50 / SF
8
Plaza 1
North
Office Building
20,000
N/A
20%
$14.50 to $15.50 / SF
9
Chinook Business
Park
South
Business Park
-
Sunlife Financial
N/A
$20 to $25 / SF
10
Sherwood Building
South
Office Building
27,000
Dental, Medical
60%
$18 / SF
59
Figure 6.4 Lethbridge Competitive Office Map
8
3
4
5
17 2
6
9
1.
Lethbridge Centre
2.
BLT Centre
3.
Chancery Court
4.
Professional Building
5.
Paramount Boutiques and Professional
Space
6.
410 Stafford Drive
7.
McFarland Building
8.
Plaza 1
9.
Chinook Business Park
10.
Sherwood Building
10
60
6.2 COMPETITIVE OFFICE PROJECTS
The three major office towers in Lethbridge; Lethbridge Centre, BLT Centre
and Chancery Court provide the bulk of white collar office space in the
downtown core. Their lease rates of $10 to $18 per sf (NNN) match
average downtown lease rates for other comparable markets, however all
three towers are aging and do not provide the amenities that newer Class A
offices provide.
The Paramount Boutiques and Professional Space represent the next wave
of office space, achieving some of the highest office lease rates in
Lethbridge at $20 per sf (triple-net). Constructed as an urban renewal
project in the old Paramount Theatre building, the newly opened
professional space provides Class A finishes and is approximately 50%
leased with ATB Financial acting as a primary anchor.
The amount of white-collar office space outside of the downtown core is
quite limited, with Chinook Business Park on the south-east side of the city
providing the largest amount of new absorption.
The Chinook Business Park is quasi office/light industrial and is sold by lots
that range from 0.86 acres to 12 acres in size. Offices are then built-to-suit
for a wide-range of uses including, the current anchor tenant Sunlife
Financial.
Sherring Business and Industrial Park which is located on the northern
outskirts of Lethbridge is not listed under the competitive office assessment
as the zoning designations range from business industrial to heavy
industrial and would not be direct competition for the Crossings project,
although its significance lies in the fact that it is a major daytime
employment hub, one that currently West Lethbridge does not have.
Office space in West Lethbridge is very limited, with only 22,721 sf of floor
space as of 2010. This represents 1.5% of the total office space in
Lethbridge. The majority of offices are occupied by medical professionals,
travel insurance, immigration law and other service-based uses that
typically occupy under 2,000 sf of space per unit.
Amenities such as quality restaurants and complementary businesses are
lacking in West Lethbridge which is primarily based around residential and
education at the moment, which may be a reason why no large amount of
office space has been constructed as of yet.
61
7.0 Office Market Demand Analysis
7.1 INTRODUCTION
Using the current office supply and absorption metrics as well as forecasted
growth in employment and population, estimated demand for new office
space was calculated, applying two scenarios – “Office Demand Through
Employment Growth” and “Office Demand Through Population Growth”.
Table 7.1 Projected Office Demand Through Employment Growth
Lethbridge Statistical Area: Employment Growth by Sector
Business
Services
Education
Services
Finance,
Insurance &
Real Estate
Public
Administration
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
3,365
3,468
3,574
3,683
3,795
3,485
3,469
3,454
3,438
3,422
1,990
2,061
2,135
2,211
2,290
1,830
1,843
1,857
1,870
1,884
Annual Growth Rates
2006 - 2010
3.05%
-0.45%
3.57%
0.73%
7.2 OFFICE DEMAND THROUGH EMPLOYMENT GROWTH
Projected office space demand, as calculated by the growth in major
employment sectors that utilize standard office space such as business
services, finance, real estate, education and public administrative support,
among other industries (Table 7.1) is estimated to be approximately 40,000
sf annually within Lethbridge.
Based on employment sector figures obtained through the most recent
2006 Census Data from Statistics Canada, the projected number of new
annual jobs within the office sector for Lethbridge was calculated by using
an average annual growth rate obtained between 2001 to 2006 for each of
the four distinct categories.
Table 7.2 illustrates total cumulative office demand in Lethbridge of
approximately 747,996 sf over the a 15-year period beginning in 2011
which is when development at the Crossings could potentially begin, and
concluding in 2025.
7.3
OFFICE DEMAND THROUGH POPULATION GROWTH
Table 7.3 illustrates the estimated projected office demand in Lethbridge
calculated by annual population growth assuming a stable 1.7% population
growth rate, as projected by the City of Lethbridge.
This method reflects a current per capita ratio of 18 sf of office space in
Lethbridge, which is slightly lower than the 20-22 sf per capita for other
cities with populations between 75,000 to 125,000.
The population growth scenario presented in Table 7.3 reveals total
cumulative office demand in Lethbridge of approximately 448,770 sf over
the 15-year period 2011 to 2025.
These figures are lower than the figure obtained by using Employment
Growth, displaying that Lethbridge will likely need to either grow its
population base at a faster rate, or more realistically increase its per capita
ratio of office space through economic development to warrant higher
annual office demand through this scenario.
Source: Statistics Canada, Economic
Development Lethbridge
Table 7.2 Lethbridge Office Demand
Projected Increase in Office Space
Demand (sf) from Previous Year Lethbridge
2011
39,162
2012
40,487
2013
41,855
2014
43,267
2015
44,724
2016
46,228
2017
47,780
2018
49,383
2019
51,037
2020
52,744
2021
54,507
2022
56,326
2023
58,205
2024
60,144
2025
62,146
Total 2011-2025
747,996
62
Table 7.3 Projected Office Demand Through Population Growth
Projected Lethbridge Office Demand By Population Growth
Projected Total
Population
Projected Annual
Population Growth
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2025
86,659
88,132
89,630
91,154
92,704
94,280
95,883
97,513
99,170
100,856
102,571
111,591
1,473
1,498
1,524
1,550
1,576
1,603
1,630
1,658
1,686
1,715
1,865
27,893
28,367
28,850
29,340
29,839
30,346
30,862
33,576
Office Demand in
26,518
26,968
27,427
Lethbridge (sf)*
* Factoring 18 sf of office space per capita in the City of Lethbridge
2010-2025 Total Office Demand (sf): 448,770
Source: Statistics Canada, Economic Development Lethbridge, City of Lethbridge
7.4 OFFICE DEMAND QUANTIFICATION
To isolate the appropriate and feasible share of office demand that could
be garnered at the Crossings site, a Market Share sensitivity was applied. In
this regard, the base level against which the market share was applied
reflects the blended average of annual demand as determined in the latter
Employment Growth and Population Growth models.
Using this “blended” base level of demand, sensitivities of 10%, 20%, 30%
and 40% were applied to determine the optimal amount of office space for
the Crossings site, as detailed in Table 7.4. In applying these sensitivities,
the project’s site and size as well as the optimal format in order to be
unique and competitive in the market were considered as important
qualitative inputs.
Recognizing that the downtown core of Lethbridge is the primary cluster for
office space, and West Lethbridge currently holds a 1.5% market share, the
Crossings would need to initially integrate a small amount of office space to
test local market viability, which would best be accommodated in smaller
footprints above retail.
Through this blended average, market-driven demand for Lethbridge totals
598,383 sf of office space by 2025.
The Crossings will realistically only capture a portion of the projected office
demand, with a 10% market share being the most feasible capture due to
the current absence of proper office space within West Lethbridge.
Accordingly by 2025, there is feasible cumulative demand for 59,838 sf of
office space at the Crossings. On an annualized basis, the aggregate total
breaks down to a range between 3,200 sf to 4,800 sf per annum.
63
Table 7.4 The Crossings Office Feasibility
Crossings Feasible Cumulative Office Space 10% Marketshare
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2025
32,840
33,728
34,641
35,580
36,546
37,539
38,560
39,611
40,691
41,803
47,861
Crossings Marketshare
10%
10%
10%
10%
10%
10%
10%
10%
10%
10%
10%
Crossings Feasible Office
Space (sf)
3,284
3,373
3,464
3,558
3,655
3,754
3,856
3,961
4,069
4,180
4,786
Cumulative (sf)
3,284
6,657
10,121
13,679
17,333
21,087
24,943
28,904
32,974
37,154
59,838
Lethbridge Demand
Blended Average (sf)
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2025
32,840
33,728
34,641
35,580
36,546
37,539
38,560
39,611
40,691
41,803
47,861
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
Space (sf)
6,568
6,746
6,928
7,116
7,309
7,508
7,712
7,922
8,138
8,361
9,572
Cumulative (sf)
6,568
13,314
20,242
27,358
34,667
42,175
49,887
57,809
65,947
74,308
119,677
Lethbridge Demand
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2025
32,840
33,728
34,641
35,580
36,546
37,539
38,560
39,611
40,691
41,803
47,861
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
Space (sf)
9,852
10,118
10,392
10,674
10,964
11,262
11,568
11,883
12,207
12,541
14,358
Cumulative (sf)
9,852
19,970
30,363
41,037
52,000
63,262
74,830
86,713
98,921
111,462
179,515
Lethbridge Demand
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2025
32,840
33,728
34,641
35,580
36,546
37,539
38,560
39,611
40,691
41,803
47,861
40%
40%
40%
40%
40%
40%
40%
40%
40%
40%
40%
Space (sf)
13,136
13,491
13,856
14,232
14,618
15,015
15,424
15,844
16,277
16,721
19,144
Cumulative (sf)
13,136
26,627
40,484
54,716
69,334
84,349
99,773
115,618
131,894
148,615
239,353
Lethbridge Demand
64
7.5 OFFICE SUMMARY AND IMPLICATIONS
Due to the current office vacancy rate of 16% and approximately 250,000 sf
of vacant office space, it is expected to take a projected 16 years to absorb
current supply at a 15,000 sf annual absorption rate. Much of this current
vacant space though is Class B and Class C office space, with the Paramount
Boutiques currently the only available urban Class A office space in
Lethbridge.
The office space at the Crossings could potentially become a “jumping-off” point
for growth in more white collar jobs within the growing West Lethbridge market.
Furthermore, the time frame to introduce office space at the Crossings is
reduced due to the ongoing population increase in West Lethbridge and the
low amount of office space currently available. Due to these factors, the
Crossings could introduce a small amount of office space during the early
phasing of the project to test the viability of office absorption in West
Lethbridge since the west side of the city has no previous benchmarks to
measure itself against.
Primary sectors that could be captured include finance, law, real estate,
architecture, engineering and other small white-collar start-up businesses.
Through market demand, by 2015, the Crossings could support 17,333 sf of
office space, increasing to 59,838 sf by 2025.
Tenants that could be captured by space within the Crossings development
include quasi-office functions such as travel agents, small medical offices and
educational satellite campuses.
These tenants could occupy multi-tenant office space above the retail spine in
the Main Street, and possibly spill out into freestanding pad development if
demand is warranted.
Freestanding Office format example
Office above retail format example
Freestanding Office format example
Office above retail format example
The above numbers do not preclude an economic development driven user
from taking a larger amount of space through a single lease agreement or
spec building on a strategic “flex site” within the Crossings, however this
would be above and beyond the market-driven demand recommended in
this study.
An economic development driven user has the possibility to become an
“anchor” office tenant which could then draw further complementary or
ancillary tenants.
The current average lease rate in Lethbridge is $12.57 per sf which is much
lower than the benchmark that the Paramount Boutiques are setting for
Class A office space of $18 to $20 per sf. Potential office space constructed
at the Crossings would likely need to realize similar lease rates to the
Paramount Boutiques in order to make such office development feasible
against development costs.
While population and business growth has continued to rise, especially as
the country comes out of an economic downtown, the majority of new
growth still resides within Lethbridge’s core industries of health services,
light industrial and manufacturing/processing.
65
SECTION 8.0 & 9.0
MULTI-FAMILY RESIDENTIAL ANALYSIS
66
8.0 Multi-Family Residential Supply Analysis
8.1 INTRODUCTION
According to RBC Economics, Alberta became the most affordable province
to purchase a home in Canada as of the fourth quarter 2010. Affordability
has continued to increase since 2007 with a slight depreciation in home
prices, however demand has begun to increase in the first few months of
2011, which will eliminate price declines.
Newer subdivisions such as West Highlands, Copperwood, Sunridge, Riverstone
and Paradise Canyon have enabled West Lethbridge to continue to expand over
recent years, demonstrating the demand for quality new housing on the west
side. Much of the development to this date has been single-family detached
residential homes, with small pockets of multi-family residential, which have sold
very well over the years.
With consumer confidence returning after the economic downturn, more
residents will be looking to purchase homes due to a more balanced and
stable economy.
The new multi-family residential housing mix has been varied across the city,
with a variety of duplex, townhome, brownstone and condos.
Much like the rest of Alberta, Lethbridge is primarily a homeowners market,
with a majority of residents owning their own home. A large portion of the
rental market within Lethbridge is allocated towards student housing for
those attending the University of Lethbridge, as well as young singles and
young families.
The multi-family housing stock in Lethbridge varies greatly depending on
the area of the city. Both North and South Lethbridge contain quite a few
multi-family developments in established neighbourhoods, however many
of these developments are twenty to thirty years old and are showing their
age.
Local residential developers along with the City of Lethbridge have made a
concentrated effort over the past five years to update the multi-family
housing stock with a variety of projects around the city, but in many cases
the design attributes are not indicative of high quality finishing.
North Lethbridge does not have a large amount of land available for future
residential development, and the South is also quickly approaching
geographical constraints such as Lethbridge County Airport to the south.
Primary residential growth has continued to occur in West Lethbridge with
close to 40% of the population residing on the west side. An ample amount
of developable land will allow the city to continue to concentrate the
majority of new housing stock in West Lethbridge.
8.2 MULTI-FAMILY RESIDENTIAL TRENDS
Building permit data collected by the City of Lethbridge over the past decade has
shown that Single Family residential continues to be the construction of choice,
as displayed in Table 8.1 and Figure 8.1.
Multi-Family residential construction has grown over the past two years though,
rising from 19% in 2008, to 32.9% of overall construction in 2010.
Since hitting a low of 538 during the beginning of the economic downturn in
2008, the amount of building permits in Lethbridge has increased . With
continued population growth, the city expects reach 2007 levels (947 permits)
within the next few years.
Historically, Lethbridge has a very cyclical market and should experience higher
amounts of residential building permits into 2011 and 2012.
Figure 8.1 Residential Building Permits by Housing Type 2000-2010
1200
1000
800
Multi Family
600
Single Family
400
West Lethbridge is made up several distinct residential neighbourhoods,
anchored by the University of Lethbridge along University Drive and Whoop
Up Drive.
200
0
Varsity Village carries a strong rental market and older housing market,
catering to the youthful student population who prefer to be located close
to the school within walking distance or transit access.
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
67
Table 8.1 Lethbridge Residential Building Permits by Housing Type 2000-2010
Building Permits
Residential Building Permits
Single Family
Multi Family
2000
546
429
117
2001
819
469
350
2002
798
579
219
2003
978
553
425
2004
756
556
200
2005
796
544
252
2006
988
703
285
2007
947
739
208
2008
538
436
102
2009
628
479
149
2010
777
521
256
Avg
779
546
233
%MF
21.4%
42.7%
27.4%
43.5%
26.5%
31.7%
28.8%
22.0%
19.0%
23.7%
32.9%
29.9%
Source: City of Lethbridge, Economic Development Lethbridge
Table 8.2 Lethbridge Average Rental & Vacancy Rates
Average Rental Cost & Vacancy Rate Comparative
City
Average Monthly
Rent (2010)
Vacancy Rate
(2010)
Average Monthly
Rent (2009)
Vacancy Rate
(2009)
$801
$655
$793
$870
$916
$991
3.8%
9.3%
9.2%
15.5%
4.5%
5.3%
Lethbridge
$792
4.1%
Medicine Hat
$657
10.1%
Red Deer
$770
7.5%
Grande Prarie
$798
10.5%
Edmonton
$917
4.2%
Calgary
$969
3.6%
Source: Economic Development Lethbridge, CMHC
Figure 8.2 Lethbridge Average Number of Residents Per Household
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
Single
Dual
Single
Dual
Three Person
Three Person
Source: City of Lethbridge, Economic Development Lethbridge
Four Person
Four Person
Five or More
Five or More
68
8.3 COMPETITIVE MULTI-FAMILY DEVELOPMENTS
Table 8.3 and Figure 8.3 illustrate and outline major Completed, Under
Construction and Planned multi-family residential projects in the Lethbridge
market. All projects listed are under ten years in age, many of which have
been recently completed.
Particular attention was paid to the product in West Lethbridge for
competitive purposes, however the majority of new multi-family inventory
being built is on the west side of the city.
Local Lethbridge and Alberta based companies are the primary developers for
much of the multi-family product, such as Nova Homes, Melcor, Dimax
Development, Avonlea and Daytona Land.
An opportunity exists for the Crossings to create a residential development that
appeals to residential developers from outside of Lethbridge who may be more
prepared to introduce higher standard townhome/streetfront walk-up housing
formats.
Table 8.3 Lethbridge Multi-Family Developments
COMPLETED
Map # Project Name
1
Masons Point Landing
2
Woodsmere Manor
3
Woodsmere Place
4
Copperwood Villas
5
Legacy at Copperwood
6
The Brownstones
7
Sundance Estates
8
SunRidge Townhomes
9
Hearthstone
10
Elements of Coulee Creek
11
Sierras of Courtyard Terrace
12
Legacy Ridge
Location
West Lethbridge
West Lethbridge
West Lethbridge
West Lethbridge
West Lethbridge
West Lethbridge
West Lethbridge
West Lethbridge
South Lethbridge
South Lethbridge
South Lethbridge
North Lethbridge
Type
Townhomes
Condos
Townhomes
Condos
Condos
Townhomes
Townhomes
Townhomes
Duplex
Townhomes
Condos
Townhomes
Units
48
56
96
UNDER CONSTRUCTION
Map # Project Name
13
Discovery at Copperwood
14
The Club at Copperwood
15
BlackWolf
Location
West Lethbridge
West Lethbridge
North Lethbridge
Type
Townhomes
Townhomes
Townhomes
Units
42
Sale/Rental
Sale
Sale
Sale
Location
Type
West Lethbridge Townhomes
Units
-
Sale/Rental
Sale
PLANNED
Map # Project Name
16
Canyon Crest
76
48
57
68
Sale/Rental
Rental
Rental
Rental
Sale
Sale + Rental
Sale
Sale
Sale
Sale
Sale
Sale + Rental
Sale
69
Figure 8.3 Lethbridge Multi-Family Developments Map
12
COMPLETED
15
1.
2.
Woodsmere Manor
3.
Woodsmere Place
4.
Copperwood Villas
5.
6.
The Brownstones
7.
Sundance Estates
8.
SunRidge Townhomes
9.
Hearthstone
10.
Elements of Coulee Creek
11.
3
12.
Legacy Ridge
6
UNDER CONSTRUCTION
2
10
1
5
4 14
13
11
9
10
7 8
13.
14.
15.
BlackWolf
PLANNED
16.
Canyon Crest
16
70
The analysis of for-sale multi-family homes, along with multi-family rental
units identified in Tables 8.4 and 8.5 illustrates a strong-performing
residential market.
Legacy at Copperwood which is located across Whoop Up Drive from the
Crossings averages $225,000 for a two bedroom condo.
The average size of a for-sale multi-family unit is 2.5 bedrooms, and
currently has an average sale price of $252,588.
Many of the newly built condo and townhome projects on the market are
Class B properties, with the Lethbridge market lacking a variety of Class A
properties that contain higher grade finishes, both inside and outside of the
homes.
There is a wide variety of price points available in the for-sale market.
Townhomes at The Club at Copperwood which are currently under
construction start at $180,000 for a two bedroom. Further south, a three
bedroom townhome re-sale at Sundance Estates is on the market for
$350,000 as of March 2011.
Rental properties average 1,018 sf in size and are typically two bedroom, 2
bath homes. Rent per sf averages $1.07 and generally drops below $1.00
per sf as the size of the unit increases over 1,000 sf.
Table 8.4 Lethbridge For-Sale Multi-Family Price Points
Subdivision Name
Copperwood Villas
The Brownstones
Sundance Estates
Hearthstone
Legacy Ridge
Housing Type
Condos
Condos
Townhomes
Townhomes
Duplex
Condos
Townhomes
Townhomes
Townhomes
Average:
Low
$230,000
$220,000
$260,000
$225,000
$319,900
$179,500
$209,000
$205,000
$180,000
$253,550
Price Point
High
$250,000
$230,000
$268,000
$350,000
$321,500
$289,500
$249,000
$250,000
$260,000
$308,500
Average
$240,000
$225,000
$264,000
$287,500
$320,700
$234,500
$229,000
$227,500
$220,000
$281,025
Avg # of Bedrooms
2
2
3
3
3
2
2
3
3
2.88
Source: Re/max Lethbridge, Sutton Real Estate Lethbridge
Table 8.5 Lethbridge Rental Multi-Family Price Points
Subdivision Name
Woodsmere Manor
Woodsmere Place
Sierras at Courtyard Terrace
Housing Type
Townhomes
Condos
Townhomes
Condos
Condos
Average:
Rent
$1,375
$825
$900
$1,100
$1,150
$1,070
Avg SqFt
1,478
747
842
1,140
883
1,018
$/SqFt
$0.93
$1.10
$1.07
$0.96
$1.30
$1.07
71
9.0 Multi-Family Residential Demand Analysis
9.1 MULTI-FAMILY DEMAND QUANTIFICATION
A multi-family unit demand projection model was created for West
Lethbridge based upon the areas population and housing projections,
housing types and the ownership/rental split. The result of this analysis are
highlighted in Figure 9.1 and Table 9.1.
The model indicates that for the next decade there will be a continued rise
in demand for housing units as the population grows at an average annual
rate of 3.5%. In 2011, there will be a demand for 596 new housing units,
rising to 811 by 2020.
Using West Lethbridge’s current 30% multi-family share in the housing
market, 179 units are estimated to be in demand in 2011, growing to 243
by 2020.
The potential multi-family residential component at the Crossings is located in a
highly strategic location within West Lethbridge due to its proximity to schools,
library and future recreational facilities. This will allow the project to gain a
strong capture rate of the West Lethbridge multi-family market, not to mention if
commercial shops and services are incorporated into the immediate area.
The Crossings is estimated to be primarily a for-sale product with a 20:80
rental/for-sale ratio. The rental product is envisioned to be marketed towards
students and young families.
Cumulative multi-family residential for-rent absorption is forecast at 36 units by
2015 and 94 units by 2020. Cumulative for-sale absorption is forecast at 144 units
by 2015 and 376 units by 2020. This creates a projected total of 470 units
combined by 2020 with an average annual capture rate of 24.4% for the West
Lethbridge multi-family market.
Figure 9.1 West Lethbridge Project Demand for Housing by Type
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Single Detached
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Multifamily
72
Table 9.1 The Crossings – Estimated Absorption of Housing Units by Type
Demand Factors
Population
Average Household Size
Households
Annual Growth in Households
2011
40,840
2.13
19,183
649
2012
42,269
2.13
19,854
671
2013
43,749
2.13
20,549
695
2014
45,280
2.13
21,268
719
2015
46,865
2.13
22,013
744
2016
48,505
2.13
22,783
770
2017
50,203
2.13
23,580
797
2018
51,960
2.13
24,406
825
2019
53,779
2.13
25,260
854
Housing Units (2)
Owner-occupied Units
Rental Units
% Rental
17,019
12,007
5,011
29.4%
17,614
12,428
5,187
29.4%
18,231
12,863
5,368
29.4%
18,869
13,313
5,556
29.4%
19,529
13,779
5,751
29.4%
20,213
14,261
5,952
29.4%
20,920
14,760
6,160
29.4%
21,653
15,277
6,376
29.4%
22,411
15,811
6,599
29.4%
2020 (1)
55,661
2.13
26,144
884
23,195
16,365
6,830
29.4%
New Housing Units
596
617
638
660
684
707
732
758
784
811
Unit Type Estimate
% MF (Estimated)
Detached Units
Multifamily Units
30%
417
179
30%
432
185
30%
447
191
30%
462
198
30%
478
205
30%
495
212
30%
513
220
30%
530
227
30%
549
235
30%
568
243
14.0%
28.0%
42.0%
13.5%
27.0%
40.6%
13.1%
26.1%
39.2%
12.6%
25.2%
37.9%
12.2%
24.4%
36.6%
11.8%
23.6%
35.3%
11.4%
22.8%
34.1%
11.0%
22.0%
33.0%
10.6%
21.2%
31.9%
10.3%
20.6%
30.8%
Recommended Units
% Req'd Capture Rate of MF Market
0.0%
40
21.6%
40
20.9%
50
25.2%
50
24.4%
50
23.6%
60
27.3%
60
26.4%
60
25.5%
60
24.7%
% Rental Estimate (for Project)
0.0%
20.0%
20.0%
20.0%
20.0%
20.0%
20.0%
20.0%
20.0%
20.0%
Absorption based on Capture Rate of:
25 MF units/year
50 MF units/year
75 MF units/year
Absorption Estimate for Project
For-Rent MF Units
For-Sale MF Units
-
8
32
8
32
10
40
10
40
10
40
12
48
12
48
12
48
12
48
Cumul. Absorption Estimate for Project
For-Rent MF Units
For-Sale MF Units
-
8
32
16
64
26
104
36
144
46
184
58
232
70
280
82
328
94
376
(1)
(2)
Based on average % population growth rate from 2005 to 2010 for West Lethbridge
Based on data from Alberta Finance and Enterprise Statistics
73
9.2 SUMMARY & IMPLICATIONS
The continued growth and demand for housing in West Lethbridge is a
positive sign for the Crossings. The city has made it known that future
residential development will be mainly concentrated on the west side of the
city.
Multi-family residential for-rent cumulative absorption by the project is
forecast at 94 units by 2020. Multi-family residential for-sale cumulative
absorption by the project is forecast at 376 units by 2020.
The economic downturn did not effect Lethbridge to the same degree as its
neighbors to the south in the United States, however residential building
permits are just now approaching pre-recession levels.
West Lethbridge has a strong mix of university students and young middle
to middle upper class residents creating a demand for higher quality
product. The current inventory is lacking within this segment and there is
an opportunity to fill this void.
The Crossing’s mixed-use qualities combining recreation, education,
commercial and residential components will further enhance the demand
for less traditional housing formats currently limited in Lethbridge. The
movement towards townhomes, rowhouses and walk-ups will provide
Lethbridge residents with a variety of housing types not found elsewhere in
the city.
Streetfront Walk-Up format example – Orenco Station, Oregon
Price points in West Lethbridge are strong and new multi-family product is
able to achieve some of the highest sales in the city. There is also the
added distinction of being located in a mixed-use “hub” which can add a
premium increase of approximately 10% to most homes.
With strong demand for multi-family units over the next few years, and no
sign of near term price declines according to residential industry experts,
the first phase of a residential component at the Crossings could appear as
early as 2012. A two bedroom townhome or walk-up could garner a price
in the range of $250,000 to $275,000/per unit. A larger three bedroom
could fetch in the range of $300,000 to $325,000/per unit.
Rental units would have to remain competitive in the market, but would
also be able to attract a premium price due to all the amenities within
walking distance of the homes. Rental units would primarily be low-rise
apartments, approximately three stories in height. Two bedroom homes in
today’s prices are estimated towards $900 to $1,000/unit/per month, while
three bedroom homes are estimated at $1,100 to 1,300/unit/per month.
These prices will fluctuate on an annual basis depending on market
conditions, the amount of rental stock and competitive product that will be
built in the future.
Rowhome format example – Belmar
74
SECTION 10.0 & 11.0
HOTEL/ACCOMMODATIONS ANALYSIS
75
10.0 Hotel/Accommodations Supply Analysis
10.1
INTRODUCTION
In addition to requiring strong site attributes, one of the most important
parts of a hotel market analysis is the study of historic, current and future
market performance and competitive supply/inventory.
This section will evaluate the current market performance and supply in the
Alberta South TDR (“Tourism Destination Region”) and specifically the City of
Lethbridge.
Careful review of market specifics can often reveal supply and demand
nuances that might indicate the potential for a new hotel. With an aging
lodging supply and a proliferation of new brands and concepts, market
occupancy and average daily rates (ADR) are no longer the sole benchmarks
for an individual property’s potential performance.
In this regard a qualitative assessment must be included with the
quantifiable components in order to most accurately assess the market
opportunity.
Potential success factors in a particular market can vary for different hotel
products. Evaluating the potential of a new hotel in the Lethbridge market
from a supply side requires an examination of the specific attributes of each
competitive property’s characteristics including factors such as location,
proximity to demand generators, renovation history and brand (refer to
Table 10.1). Markets that in the aggregate do not seem particularly robust
may have niche or latent demand that would not provide adequate room
nights for a particular property type and/or brand.
10.2
ALBERTA SOUTH & LETHBRIDGE HOTEL MARKET OUTLOOK
Overall, the Alberta hotel market has managed to maintain relatively stable
outlook. According to HVS in their “Canadian Lodging Outlook” (Dec 2010),
“transaction volume in Alberta increased substantially in 2010, more than
doubling the activity reported in 2009 to reach almost $114 million in 14
transactions”.
Occupancy – Over the period 2007 to 2009, Occupancy in Lethbridge declined by
an average of 0.84% per annum. Forecasted Occupancy is estimated to hover at
around 60% for the next few years as it generally has for the past three years.
Overall, Lethbridge’s performance however has been more stable than the
Provincial average.
ADR (Average Daily Rate) – Over the period 2007 to 2009, the ADR in Lethbridge
grew by an average of 4.29% per annum. With no new market entrants expected
in the next few years, it is estimated that ADRs will continue to exhibit stable,
modest growth.
RevPAR (Revenue per Available Room) – In correlation with the growth in ADR,
RevPAR also grew over the period 2007 to 2009 at an average rate of 3.46% per
annum.
Supply – The number of hotels properties and hotel rooms in Lethbridge has
remained relatively consistent over the past few years. Although no new hotels
have been added, hotels such as the Holiday Inn Express and Coast Hotel &
Conference Centre have undergone major internal and external renovations in
the past two years.
Figure 10.1 and Table 10.2 illustrate and document the current hotel supply (i.e.
inventory) in Lethbridge . As evidenced in Table 10.2, the majority of the hotels
in Lethbridge are older hotels typically in the 2 Star Rating or comprising “LowerPriced Hotel Brands”, “Economy Brands”, “Midscale Brands with F&B” or
“Midscale Brands without F&B” and all located in either Downtown Lethbridge or
along the Mayor Magrath Drive, which connects with the
Hotel properties in Lethbridge range from suites for extended stay to traditional
overnight visitor rooms. On average, a hotel property in Lethbridge has in the
range of 76 rooms per property (based on the Alberta Government estimates in
Table 10.1, to 83 based on MXD’s physical inventory of hotel properties and
room inventory counts shown in Table 10.2.
The following provides a summary of the key performance metrics for the
hotel sector in the South Alberta TDR, within which Lethbridge is one of the
major cities.
76
Table 10.1
Alberta, Alberta South & Lethbridge Hotel Performance Metrics 2007 to 2009
2007
Number of Properties
Number of Rooms
Average Rooms/Property
Average Annual Occupancy
ADR
RevPAR
2008
2009
Alberta
Alberta
South
Lethbridge
Alberta
Alberta
South
Lethbridge
Alberta
Alberta
South
Lethbridge
729
124
18
753
125
18
774
126
18
59,530
6,320
1,375
62,103
6,409
1,371
63,442
6,427
1,374
81.7
51.0
76.4
82.5
51.3
71.2
82.0
51.0
76.3
71.0%
63.6%
59.9%
68.3%
61.9%
61.3%
58.6%
55.1%
58.9%
$109.53
$84.07
$82.91
$113.54
$83.08
$86.82
$112.24
$88.17
$90.18
$77.81
$53.48
$49.64
$77.46
$51.42
$53.24
$65.76
$48.16
$53.13
Source: Government of Alberta Tourism, Parks & Recreation, "Alberta Accommodation Statistics 2007, 2008 & 2009"
Note: Alberta South is a Tourism Destination Region (TDR) as defined by the Government of Alberta and does not include Calgary, which is its own TDR.
77
Figure 10.1
Lethbridge Competitive Hotel Map
4
9
SITE
7
6 13
15
2
17
8
5 1610
11 1
14
12
3
1.
Best Western Heidelberg Inn
2.
The Coast Lethbridge Hotel & Conference Centre
3.
Comfort Inn
4.
Days Inn Lethbridge
5.
Econolodge Inn and Suites
6.
Hampton Inn and Suites
7.
Holiday Inn Express Hotel & Suites
8.
Howard Johnson Express Inn
9.
Lethbridge Lodge Hotel & Conference Centre
10.
Lethbridge Travelodge
11.
Pepper Tree Inn
12.
Premier Inn & Suites
13.
Quality Inn & Suites
14.
Ramada Hotel
15.
Sandman Hotel Lethbridge
16.
Super 8 Lethbridge
17.
Thriftlodge Lethbridge
78
Table 10.2
Lethbridge Competitive Hotel Supply
LETHBRIDGE HOTEL SUPPLY
No.
Name
Drive Time to
Crossings
Rating
Number
of Rooms
ADR Price
Point Range
Date
Opened
Last
Renovation
Meeting
Rooms
1
Best Western Heidelberg Inn
13 minutes
2
66
$61 - $73
1974
2003
2
2
The Coast Lethbridge Hotel & Conference Centre
12 minutes
3
105
$80 - $138
1954
2009
5
3
Comfort Inn
13 minutes
2
58
$115 - $125
1974
2001
4
Days Inn Lethbridge
9 minutes
2
87
$89 - $111
5
Econolodge Inn & Suites
12 minutes
1.5
43
$104 - $119
6
Ha mpton Inn a nd Sui tes
13 minutes
2.5
87
$111 - $164
7
Hol i da y Inn Expres s Hotel & Sui tes
10 minutes
2.5
102
$140 - $169
2005
2010
8
Howard Johnson Express Inn
12 minutes
1.5
37
$70 - $82
1967
2000
9
Lethbri dge Lodge Hotel & Conference Centre
9 minutes
3
190
$96 - $130
1978
2002
10
Lethbridge Travelodge (Formerly Parkside Inn)
12 minutes
2
65
$70 - $100
11
Pepper Tree Inn
12 minutes
1.5
56
$60 - $105
12
Premier Inn & Suites
14 minutes
2
50
$83 - $113
13
Qua l i ty Inn & Sui tes
13 minutes
2
60
$135 - $146
14
Ramada Hotel
13 minutes
3
119
$120 - $164
15
Sa ndma n Hotel Lethbri dge
11 minutes
2.5
139
$99 - $150
16
Super 8 Lethbridge (Formerly Canada's Best Value Inn)
11 minutes
2
55
$87 - $119
17
Thri ftlodge Lethbri dge
10 minutes
1.5
91
$69 - $98
TOTAL
Meeting Area Meeting Capacity
(sq ft)
(Persons)
12 - 40
13,660
20 - 1,200
1
65
1
35
9
10,000
10 - 800
3
30 - 150
2007
1
15
1999
5
10 - 150
8
5 - 450
1
65
1996
2010
1986
2002
1,410
79
10.3
SOURCES OF ROOM DEMAND
Reflecting on the Hotel Sources of Demand outlined in Table 10.3, the
majority of Hotel Guests to Lethbridge Hotels are Commercial Visitors,
comprised of either Industrial Crews or Business Travelers.
Traditional Tourists, Tour Groups and Convention Groups do not represent
significant market opportunities for Lethbridge and thus the demand for higher
quality branded hotels is not imminently needed.
Historically, over the period 2007 to 2010 the average ratio of Commercial to
Leisure Visitors in Lethbridge has been 60:40 respectively. Similarly, the
Alberta South TDR (Tourism Destination Region) also has an approximate
60:40 split with respect to Commercial and Leisure Segments.
Referring to Table 10.3, the two major Hotel Conference Centres (Lethbridge
Lodge and Coast Hotel) would appear to have an adequate market share of the
limited Convention Market Segment with their offering of 10,000 sf and 13,660 sf
respectively. Additionally, many of the other newer or renovated branded hotels
(e.g. Sandman) also provide meeting space for groups of up to 200 persons.
The big difference between Lethbridge and Alberta South lies in the fact that
the majority of the Lethbridge’s Commercial Segments are Business Travelers
(avg 45%) whereas for Alberta South, the majority of Commercial Segments
are Industrial Crews (avg 35%).
This trend suggests that for Alberta South, Extended Stay type hotels are
more prevalent, whereby in Lethbridge shorter transient hotel visits would be
more common resulting in more demand for mid-priced hotels with or
without F&B.
Table 10.3
Overall, current occupancy levels at 60% do need to improve to make a hotel
development imminently feasible, particularly at the Crossings site given the
limited amount of demand generators and other complementary activities and
amenities.
In time, as the area evolves and as supply and demand performance metrics
improve a hotel at the Crossings could become more feasible, but the
opportunity should be re-evaluated to confirm the magnitude of opportunity.
Alberta South & Lethbridge Sources of Room Demand
Commerical
Leisure
Industrial
Crews
Business
Traveler
Tourists
Tour
Groups
Convention
Groups
Other
Lethbridge
10.9%
49.6%
20.2%
3.6%
6.4%
9.3%
Alberta South
36.7%
26.7%
25.9%
2.4%
2.4%
5.9%
Lethbridge
11.3%
46.6%
27.6%
1.9%
2.6%
10.0%
Alberta South
36.3%
25.9%
26.6%
2.1%
3.2%
5.9%
Lethbridge
13.3%
45.7%
30.5%
0.9%
0.0%
9.6%
Alberta South
30.9%
30.2%
28.8%
2.3%
2.2%
5.6%
2007
2008
2009
Source: Government of Alberta Tourism, Parks & Recreation, "Alberta Accommodation Statistics 2007, 2008 & 2009"
80
11.0 Hotel/Accommodations Demand Analysis
11.1
HOTEL MARKET DEMAND QUANTIFICATION
Over recent years, supply and demand levels have moved in opposite
directions, whereby occupancy rates have declined and demand has slowed.
Because of the extended slowdown of the National economy, the short term
outlook is for hotel demand recovery, but not at a feverish pace as
evidenced in 2007 and 2008.
The reality of the market-demand and development of West Lethbridge
suggests that beyond the initial feasibility in 2014/2015 the next available
time horizon for an approximate 80 to 100 room hotel could be 2019 to 2020.
Ideally, the property would likely fall within the 80-room size of the hotel
spectrum.
Recognizing a more modest outlook for the hotel sector over the next 5 to 10
years, the current hotel supply vs demand in Lethbridge, as shown in Table
11.1 needs to improve so that occupancy rates do not decline any further.
Applying conservative and stabilized growth in demand for hotels/motels a
blended rate of 1.6% per annum (i.e. 1.0% for Leisure Segment growth and
2.0% for Commercial Segment growth) indicates that assuming no new
additions to the Lethbridge hotel inventory, occupancy could gradually
recover and could reach an industry acceptable benchmark of 65% by 2015.
Although average Lethbridge hotel occupancy and historic supply and demand
growth are critical inputs in determining future demand for a hotel at the
Crossings site, the current age of the existing hotel infrastructure should also be
weighed. In this regard, many of the current properties are older and in need of
renovation and if renovations do not occur, the warranted demand could be
sped up by one to two years.
Table 11.1 illustrates the cumulative annual demand for a hotel room growth
specifically for the City of Lethbridge overall. It is important to recognize that
given the developing nature of West Lethbridge any new hotel entrant into
the Lethbridge Market is likely to firstly position itself downtown or near to
existing demand generators.
In time, as West Lethbridge continues to grow and as areas such as the West
Lethbridge Employment Centre and the Crossings establish a foothold in the
market , a hotel will become potentially more attractive. In the short term
however, a hotel is not feasible for the Crossings site.
Over the past few years, supply and demand for hotels/motels have
averaged slow, albeit stable growth in Alberta South and Lethbridge, as a
result of the global and national economic recession.
Ideally, occupancy rates would need to improve from their current levels of
60% or lower to at least 65% for a new hotel operator to realize feasibility in a
market where supply is currently fulfilled, particularly if operator is in the midmarket profile segment and even more so if the site is suburban in nature, such
as at the Crossings.
The stronger Business Traveler segment to Lethbridge suggests a market
positioning for a Mid-Priced Hotel with or without F&B. Refer to Table 11.2 and
Figure 11.1 for representative hotel brands and formats that could fit the
envisioned positioning profile. A burgeoning catalyst for a potential hotelier at
the Crossings could be the role of Sports Tourism in relation to the envisioned
outdoor and indoor recreational amenities planned for the area, as well as the
potential Chinook Trail extension which would improve regional accessibility to
the site.
Forecasts are beginning to show signs of further stabilization and modest
growth for the next approximate 5-year horizon in terms of occupancy
(averaging 60%), supply (1.0%/annum), demand (2%/annum).
Assuming hotel occupancy rates grow as per estimated forecasts over the
period of 2010 to 2014 (and beyond), the results of the hotel demand
analysis reveal that another mid-priced hotel between 85 and 125 rooms,
could be warranted by 2014/2015 in the City of Lethbridge. As mentioned
however, this demand is likely not going to be warranted for the Crossings
development, but rather elsewhere in the City, most likely in the Downtown.
Hotel format example – Days Inn
81
Table 11.1 The Crossings Projected Hotel Market Feasibility & Development Timing
PROJECTED HOTEL MARKET FEASIBILITY
ROOM DEMAND & HOTEL DEVELOPMENT OPPORTUNITY
FOR CITY OF LETHBRIDGE & THE CROSSINGS DEVLOPMENT AREA
Forecasted
Growth Per
Annum
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2010 - 2022
1,374
1,410
1,410
1,410
1,410
1,410
1,410
1,410
1,410
1,410
1,410
1,410
1,410
1,410
0.00%
300,404
308,790
313,731
318,758
323,873
329,078
334,374
339,763
345,247
350,828
356,507
362,286
368,168
374,153
1.6%
120,162
180,243
300,404
123,516
185,274
308,790
124,751
188,979
313,731
125,999
192,759
318,758
127,259
196,614
323,873
128,531
200,547
329,078
129,817
204,557
334,374
131,115
208,649
339,763
132,426
212,822
345,247
133,750
217,078
350,828
135,088
221,420
356,507
136,439
225,848
362,286
137,803
230,365
368,168
139,181
234,972
374,153
1.0%
2.0%
501,510
514,650
514,650
516,060
514,650
514,650
514,650
516,060
514,650
514,650
514,650
516,060
516,060
516,060
7.3%
6.6%
6.6%
6.6%
6.6%
6.6%
6.6%
6.6%
6.6%
6.6%
6.6%
6.6%
7.1%
7.1%
Available Room Nights at Potential
New 100-Room Hotel
36,500
36,500
36,500
36,600
36,500
36,500
36,500
36,600
36,500
36,500
36,500
36,600
36,600
36,600
Occupied Room Nights at Potential
New 125-Room Hotel
21,900
21,900
21,900
21,960
21,900
21,900
21,900
21,960
21,900
21,900
21,900
21,960
21,960
21,960
0
0
23
42
69
93
117
137
166
192
218
240
271
298
59.9%
60.0%
60.0%
60.0%
60.0%
60.0%
60.0%
60.0%
60.0%
60.0%
60.0%
60.0%
60.0%
60.0%
Lethbridge Hotel Room Inventory
Projected Lethbridge
Room Demand
Leisure
Commercial
Total
40%
60%
100%
Projected Lethbridge
Room Supply
Fair Share Ratio of Lethbridge
Hotel Room Inventory for a new 100Room Hotel
Cumulative Annual
New Lethbridge Room Demand
Estimated Average
Annual Occupancy
Source: MXD Development Strategists 2011, Government of Alberta Tourism Parks & Recreation "Alberta Accommodation Statistics, 2007 (Revised Sept 2009)"
Note:
2012, 2016 & 2020 represent Leap Years and therefore have 366 days against which supply is calculated
Statistical Data as sourced to Government of Alberta Tourism Parks & Recreation "Alberta Accommodation Statistics, 2007 (Revised Sept 2009)"
Forecasted Occupancy as estimated by MXD Development Strategists reflecting historic average and industry standard given the Lethbridge Market profile.
82
Table 11.2
Representative Hotel Brands by Market Segment
Upper-Priced Hotel Brands
Fairmont
Four Seasons
Loews
Ritz Carlton
W Hotels
Embassy Suites
Hilton
Hyatt
Marriott
Westin
Lower-Priced Hotel Brands
Courtyard by Marriott
Crowne Plaza
Hyatt pLace
Radisson
Residence Inn
Best Western
Doubletree Club
Holiday Inn
Quality Inn
Red Lion
Comfort Inn
Fairfield Inn
Hampton Inn
La Quinta
Town Place Suites
Days Inn
Econolodge
Microtel
Red Roof
Super 8
Source: PKF Hos pi tal i ty Res ea rch
Upper Upscale
Upscale
Midscale with F&B
Midscale w/out F&B Economy
Embassy Suites
Hilton
Kimpton
Marriott
Sheraton
Case Suites
Courtyard by Marriott
Hilton Garden Inn
Homewood Suites
Hyatt Place
Radisson
Residence Inn
Springhill Suites
Staybridge Suites
Best Western
Crystal Inn
Holiday Inn & Suites
Little America
Quality Inn
Ramada
Red Lion
Baymont
Candlewood Suites
Comfort Inn
Fairfield Inn
Hampton Inn
Holiday Inn Express
la Quinta
Ramada Limited
Sleep Inn
America's Best Inn
Days Inn
Econolodge
Extended Stay America
Homestead
Howard Johnson
Intown Suites
Microtel
Motel 6
National 9
Studio 6
Super 8
Value Place
Source: Smi th Tra vel Res ea rch, 2010
83
Who
areAnalysis
the
11.0 Hotel/Accommodations Demand
Figure 11.1 Hotel Family Tree
½
Luxury Boutique
Lifestyle Concept
½
84
Figure 11.1 Hotel Family Tree
½
½
85
SECTION 12.0
LAND USE & DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY
86
12.0 Land Use & Development Strategy
12.1 THE CROSSINGS DEMAND SUMMARY
A summary of the total demand over the period 2011 to 2026 is provided in
Table 12.1 and reflects the analysis of Retail, Office, Multi-Family Residential
(“For-Rent” and “For-Sale”) and Hotel land uses.
The project is based on a phased development premised around the
introduction of multi-family housing, predominantly MF “For-Sale” units at
the outset with 70 units by 2015 and 139 units For Sale during the period
2019 to 2023. Ultimately by 2026, 209 For Sale MF units and 70 For Rent MF
units could be developed per the market demand on the Crossings site.
Subsequent to creating the residential component (i.e. on-site demand),
community scale convenience and lifestyle retail and service office uses
could be introduced in the early stages. Full market support is not expected
to exist for a full comparison complement until such time that the population
of the West Lethbridge area nears approximately 50,000 residents.
Accordingly, the retail component should begin with the introduction of a
Grocery Anchor in the range of 50,000 sf along with Personal Services in the
form of Banks as well as potentially some Limited Service Food & Beverage
formats.
Additional boutique office-above-retail in the range of 20,000 sf could be
introduced over the period 2015 to 2019, in conjunction with street oriented
retail creating the beginnings of a main street spine and 4-Corners retail area
to the area.
Office could be expanded from its initial offering of approximately 20,000 sf
to almost 60,000 sf over time, particularly if a medium-scale user or larger
tenant is found to occupy an anchor space (i.e. Economic Development
driven). This could take the form of a freestanding 3-storey office
development occurring during the period 2023 to 2026.
Hotel uses for the Crossings site should be re-evaluated after approximately
10 years to determine if demand still warrants a potential hotel development
in the range of 100 rooms. There is inherent flexibility in the demand and
land allocation to potentially accommodate more office space if such
demand is strong.
Table 12.1 Land Use Demand Summary
INCREMENTAL DEMAND 2011 TO 2026 FOR THE CROSSINGS DEVELOPMENT
LAND USE CATEGORY
ESTIMATED
WARRANTED
BUILD-OUT
2012 to 2015
2015 to 2019
2019 to 2023
2023 to 2026
Retail
415,100 sf
98,400 sf
255,100 sf
sf
61,600 sf
Office
58,000 sf
sf
20,000 sf
sf
38,000 sf
Hotel
100 rooms
Multi-Family Sale
209 units
70 units
units
139 units
units
70 units
units
units
units
70 units
Multi-Family Rental
rooms
rooms
rooms
100 rooms
87
12.2
THE CROSSINGS POSITIONING STRATEGY
Recognizing the land use demand summary and the identified points-ofdifference necessary to make the Crossings project a success, Table 12.2
summarizes each land use’s Target Market, Price Point and overall
Positioning.
The Crossings project’s over-arching positioning strategy should be to:
Provide a local and community-oriented shopping environment premised
around the creation of a main street and 4-corners core, while fulfilling market
niches for multi-family residential and boutique office formats that reflect a
premium for being situated in an integrated mixed-use environment. The
design standards should reflect an emphasis on 360 degree architecture so
that building siting and design is unique and compatible with the surrounding
community and avoids replicating another Magrath corridor.
The West Lethbridge market is relatively small but rapidly-growing, necessitating
a careful phasing strategy to ensure project success.
There are multiple objectives in phasing that must be accounted for including:
creating an amenity to sell housing, creating critical mass, avoiding market
saturation, providing flexibility, retaining strategic parcels for future and other
considerations.
In order to lay a foundation for the most optimal phasing strategy, Figure 12.1
illustrates the allocation of the Crossings area into respective “Zones” against
which land use allocation, development costs and subsequent land valuation can
be determined.
Table 12.2 Target Market, Price Point & Positioning Summary
Land Use
Target Market, Price Point & Positioning
Retail
Target Market
Price Point
Positioning



25% Local vs 75% National Tenant Mix
Value to Middle Price Point
Local and Community-Scale Shops & Services anchored by Grocery & General Merchandise
Office
Target Market
Price Point
Positioning



Medical/Health/Wellness Services, Professional Services, “Incubator" space
Smaller user segments ranging from 500 sf to 3,000 sf
Boutique Multi-Tenant Office Space above Retail & Potential Freestanding 3-Storey Office Building
Lodging
Target Market
Price Point
Positioning




Regional Event & Sports Tourism Patrons and Business Travelers
University related
Value to Mid Scale Price Point with or without Food & Beverage
2 to 3 Star Branded Hotel
Residential – Rental
Target Market
Price Point
Positioning



Young Adults and Lethbridge University Students
$800 to $1,100 per month
1 to 2 Bedroom Garden Apartments in a 3-Storey Building
Residential – For Sale
Target Market
Price Point
Positioning



Lethbridge Baby Boomer Downsizers, "Lock & Leave", Young Families
$225,000 to $250,000 / $300,000 to $350,000
3 & 4 Bedroom Townhome/Row Housing including Streetfront Walk-Up "Brownstone" style
88
Figure 12.1
Land Use Zones
89
12.3
THE CROSSINGS ZONAL LAND USE ALLOCATION
Figure 12.2 illustrates the programmatic land use pattern envisioned for the
Crossings development in Zones 1 to 7. The diagram illustrates the mix of
commercial land uses comprised of freestanding and main street retail, 4corners retail (96,200 sf) with boutique offices (36,000 sf) above, freestanding
office format and potential hotel. Also, the diagram illustrates the potential
breakdown of multi-family housing in terms of potential development format.
Based on the Zones identified in Figure 12.1, a Land Use Zone Allocation has
been prepared (refer to Table 12.3). The total land area for the 10 Zones is
79.33 acres.
For the purposes of the commercial land use allocation, Zones 1 to 7 comprise
60.15 acres. When applying the development program as identified, the
estimated number of parking spaces required is 3,033.
Townhome housing is envisioned to comprise traditional row-housing in 4-unit
pods, as well as streetfront walk-up (i.e. Brownstone) homes fronting the eastwest central arterial spine. Pending future market demand, a 70-unit
condominium could be introduced as a rental product for University Students
who would also help to activate and provide a core consumer segment for the
future town plaza area.
It is important to note that the parking for the multi-family residential
component is envisioned to comprise enclosed parking (single or double car
garage) at the street level beneath each townhouse unit. Accordingly the
residential parking count is not included in the total number of parking
spaces.
Table 12.3
Land Use Zonal Allocation Summary
Site Area (acres)
Retail Space (sf)
Office Space (sf)
Civic Space (sf)
Hotel Rooms (#)
Parking Spaces (#)
ZONE 1
ZONE 2
ZONE 3
ZONE 4
ZONE 5
ZONE 6
ZONE 7
ZONE 8
ZONE 9
ZONE 10
TOTAL
9.00
98,400
9.88
76,400
10,000
11.31
76,700
10,000
2.52
10.35
30,800
8,000
8.61
30,800
8,000
8.48
102,000
5.32
4.25
9.61
79.33
415,100
58,000
209,100
279
100
3,033
30
586
ZONE 1
Site Area (acres)
Retail Space (sf)
Office Space (sf)
Hotel Rooms (#)
Parking Spaces (#)
9.00
98,400
586
Note: Total excludes Zones 8, 9 & 10
464
ZONE 2
9.88
76,400
10,000
30
464
22,000
25
497
ZONE 3
11.31
76,700
10,000
25
497
100
193
ZONE 4
2.52
22,000
100
193
94
130
234
227
ZONE 5
ZONE 6
577
ZONE 7
10.35
30,800
8,000
94
8.61
30,800
8,000
130
8.48
102,000
234
227
577
78,400
130,700
255
389
TOTAL
60.15
415,100
58,000
279
100
2,778
90
Figure 12.2
Land Use Allocation and Designation
Main Street/Town Square
96,200 sf retail
36,000 sf office above retail
91
12.4
THE CROSSINGS LAND USE PHASING STRATEGY
Using the market-driven demand quantification as a foundation for land use
allocation, the next step in the development process is to identify a phasing
strategy that responds to demand and primary trade area population growth
incrementally over time.
Accordingly, Table 12.4 and Figure 12.3 summarize and illustrate respectively
the optimal phasing and introduction of land uses over the next 12 to 15
years.
There is some inherent flexibility in the phasing strategy that could allow for
uses such as the General Merchandise to be introduced earlier in the time
horizon.
Table 12.4
The intent of the phasing strategy as articulated in Table 12.4 is to introduce the
core convenience and services at the outset along with multi-family residential
so that the site can gain some traction in the market for the new higher quality
multi-family housing component while filling a current void in the West
Lethbridge market for a competitive and different convenience offering. Over
time, as the project reaches buildout, the final phase of the development could
see the completion of the Town Plaza/Town Square area, which pending market
demand at the time, could alternatively become a plaza green area surrounded
by further residential (e.g. similar to Garrison Woods in Calgary).
Also, if a hotel use is not deemed feasible by Phase 4, the flexibility in Zone 4
exists to potentially increase the amount of specialized office space further
exploiting the lakefront presence and proximity to shops and services.
Development Phasing
Phase 1
(Years 1 to 4)
Land Use
Retail




Supermarket
Conveniences
Pad Banks & Services
Limited Service Food
& Beverage
Phase 2
(Years 4 to 8)






Office
Phase 3
(Years 8 to 12)
Phase 4
(Years 12 to 15)
General Merchandiser
Junior Box Retail
Main Street 1st Block of 4Corners
Pad Banks
Limited Service F&B

Main Street Medical &
Professional Services




Main Street Plaza Town
Square Area
North Block of 4-Corners
Potential Pads in Zone 9
22,000 sf on Lakefront
parcel
2nd floor Main Street Plaza
Area
Lodging

80 to 125 Room Mid-Scale
Hotel
Residential – Rental

Potential Church and
Seminary or Assisted
Living Facility.

3-storey 70 units
Condominium
Residential – For Sale

First phase 70 units
Townhomes

Second phase 139
units Townhomes
92
Figure 12.3
Development Phasing
93
Figure 12.4 Town Centre Imagery
94
Figure 12.4 Town Centre Imagery
95
SECTION 14.0
CASE STUDY PROFILES
102
14.0 Case Study Profiles
Garrison Woods, Calgary, AB
Developer: Canada Lands Company (CLC)
Conceptual and Land Use Planning: Brown and Associates
Strategic and Market Analysis: IBI Group, Singleton and Associates
Architectural Consultant & Urban Design: Jenkins and Associates/IBI Group
Location: between Crowchild Trail, 20th St, 34th Ave, 47th Ave (7 km SW of Calgary City Centre)
Completed: 2003/2004
Site Area: 65 hectares (161 acres), plus 6 hectares (15 acres) of established uses
Site Details: The eastern portion of the former Canadian Forces Base.
Population: 82,362 within 3km
Average household Income : $138,666 in 2010
Residential: 1,600 units
Residential Description: Includes new townhouses, new single-detached houses, new apartment
buildings (3-4 levels), re-furbished units, apartments above retail, coach houses, 70 units of
affordable housing & 2 assisted living complexes.
Residential Density: 25 units per hectare (Residential Floor Areas: 650 to 2,500 sf)
Retail: 70,000 sf
Retail Lease Rates: NNN $35 sf/yr
Retail Description: The Town Centre is within a 10 min walk for most residents and was developed
through the integration and regeneration of a pre-existing commercial area. This area is now
surrounded by higher-density housing and is relatively close to public transport networks and
regional bike networks.
Private Schools: 44,000 sf and 30,000 sf
Community Amenities: Museum, Twin Hockey Arena, Parks
Park & Open Space: 8% of total land area
Max Height: 4 storeys
103
Garrison Woods, Calgary, AB
Development Approach: Through a new-urbanist approach, Calgary’s strategic planning policies and CLC’s own commitment to smart growth principles,
Garrison Woods was strategically planned and developed to integrate with the surrounding community.
Cost Approach: It is estimated that Garrison Woods costs 30% more to develop that a traditional suburb, attributed to heavy investment in the public
realm, the extensive use of consultants, the time required to get approvals for a non-traditional subdivision, the use of lanes and development and
implementation of detailed architectural codes.
Garrison Woods is achieving rates of return consistent with, or perhaps slightly higher than, industry standard.
Site Plan for Garrison Woods CFB East
104
Aspen Landing, Calgary, AB
Developer: Springbank Land Company
Architectural Consultant: BKDI
Location: West Calgary, on the corner of 85th Street and 17th Avenue SW
Completed: May 2010
Site Area: 8.9 hectares
Site Details: A 314,000 sf stormwater retention pond acts as a central visual and environmental
feature.
Infrastructure Description:

16 freestanding buildings

10 single storey buildings

3 two storey buildings with retail on main floor/office on the second
(underground parking under two of the buildings)

3 two storey buildings with two levels of retail/restaurants
Retail: 175,000 sf
Retail Description: Convenience, Comparison, Personal Services and Restaurants
Office: 40,000 sf
Description: Includes a health & wellness (medical) cluster
Concept: Mixed-use village concept centre, designed as a place for the community to gather,
shop, work, dine, rejuvenate, and enjoy, lined with shops, boutiques and cafes that create a
pedestrian friendly atmosphere.
105
Aspen Landing, Calgary, AB
Aspen Landing is becoming the dominant community shopping centre in West Calgary, servicing the communities of:



Aspen Woods
Christie Park
Strathcona Park


Wentworth
Springbank Hill and more.
106
Grandview Corners, Surrey, BC
Developer: SmartCentres
Architectural Consultant: Chandler Associates
Location: 24th Ave and 160th St in South Surrey/White Rock area.
Completed: April 2009
Site Area: 50 acres
Retail: 550,000 sf
Retail Lease Rates: NNN $28 SF/YR (immediate area)
Number of Tenants: 73
Retail Description: Four distinct sectors organized around a central intersection featuring a mix of
value-oriented retail with a Wal-Mart Supercentre, Home Depot, Future Shop, The Brick and our
urban lifestyle village.
Urban Lifestyle Village: 160,000 sf of retail over 14 acres
Retail Description: Upscale fashion/accessories, home furnishings, casual bistros and restaurants.
Design Concept: Based on a pedestrian friendly lifestyle open air retail concept featuring unique
architecture and a main street ambiance.
Layout: Shops are organized along Main Str. with approximately 14 stand-alone buildings with
street front parking, generous sidewalks and extensive landscaping.
Office: Medical, Health & Wellness Cluster
Residential: Various high density residential being developed around Grandview Corners, including
adjacent a mixed use development “Morgan Crossing” which features high density residential with
ground floor retail.
107
Grandview Corners, Surrey, BC
108
Newport Village, Port Moody, BC
Developer: Bosa Development & Appia Development Corporation
Architectural Consultant: Perkins & Company
Landscape Architect: Sharp & Diamond
Location: Just north of the Ioco Road and Barnett Highway intersection.
Completed: 2008 (Final of 8 Phases)
Site Area: 15 acres
Total Built Area: 1.4 million sf mixed-use development
Trade Area Details: Population: 47,500 (3 km radius ), Average household income: $68,000 (3 km
radius)
Village Completed: 1999
Retail GLA: 64,237 sf
Retail Lease Rates: NNN $30 SF/YR
Number of Tenants: 43
Unit Sizes: From 350 to 5,100 sf.
Categories: Beauty, Fashion, Gifts, Grocery, Health, Restaurants, Services
Retail Description: The diverse range of products and services are unmatched in Port Moody
making the Village an every day destination. Unique shops and restaurants situated along Newport
Drive offer enjoyment for every age demographic creating an experience for the entire family.
Anchor Tenants: Royal Bank, St. James Well Pub
Office: Significant health cluster consisting of Chiropractor, Orthotics , Maternity centre , Optical,
Dental, Medical Clinic, Orthopaedics and Podiatry.
Amenities: Excellent transit and parks nearby, Newport Village, Sutter Brook Village, Klahanie, Port
Moody, Heritage Mountain Village, Ioco, Port Moody Library, Port Moody Sports Complex, Port
Moody Ice Rink, Port Moody City Hall, Port Moody Inlet Theatre, IGA, Thrifty Foods, BC Liquor
Store
109
Newport Village, Port Moody, BC
Description: Streets lines with retail lead to the central point where “Market Square” is located. The atmosphere has been created with architectural
diversity, intimate scale, storefronts designed by the various retail tenants and a vibrant signage. Street-side patios for cafes and restaurants. The
village provides an areas where pedestrians and slow moving vehicles coexist.
110
Case Study Profiles
Belmar, Lakewood, Colorado
Developer: A partnership between Lakewood Reinvestment Authority and Continuum Partners,
LLC.
Location: SE corner of West Alameda Avenue & South Wadsworth Boulevard.
Costs: $850 million
Completed: May 2004 (Phase 1)
Site Area: 103 acres (22 city Blocks).
Access: Convenient access to downtown Denver, I-70 & Denver International Airport
Description: A major redevelopment of former mall site into new traditional street grid with
mixed use urban design and public amenities.
Projected Population: Approximately 1,500 residents
Retail Concept: Mixed-Use Town centre along Street Grid to create a Downtown for Lakewood
with a focus on commerce and culture.
Retail Lease Rates: NNN $18-20 psf (inline)
Retail GLA: 1.2 million sf of retail space
Description: Currently over 80 shops and restaurants consisting of a mix of popular chains and
local stores, and entertainment venues are augmented by a national health-food grocery and a
fitness centre.
Anchor Tenants: Dick’s Sporting Goods, Whole Foods,
Major Tenants: PF Chang’s, Baker Street Pub, Multiplex, Lucky Strike Lanes
Coming Soon: Best Buy and Nordstrom Rack (spring 2011)
Additional Uses: 850,000 sf of office space (planned); 250-room full service hotel (planned),
1,300 higher density residential units – higher density urban setting, lofts, multiplex units priced
at $300 psf (2007); 4 acres of parks, plazas and green spaces.
111
Amenities: Lakewood Civic centre, Jefferson County Public Library, public transport, and various
schools in the area. A two-acre park serves as a community “urban square” which also
transforms into an ice rink during winter holidays.
Parking: 9,000 parking spaces in public parking garages and surface lots
Design Concept: Catering to the urban lifestyle, Belmar's streets, green areas and public art
program are designed to encourage pedestrian traffic, promote community building and
emphasize the importance of public spaces.
Financing: City of Lakewood generated $120 million in infrastructure improvements through
District-issued bonds. These are to be paid off over 20 years using a public improvement fee on
future retail sales. $40 million in infrastructure and site improvements were paid directly by
Continuum.
Environmental Initiatives: 8,300 solar panels are mounted on one of the public garages,
generating 2.3 million kilowatt hours of clean electrical energy per year which is equivalent to
approximately five percent of the area’s power.
112
1,200 ft
1,300 ft
2,300 ft
113
Case Study Profiles
Bois-Franc Town Square (La Grand Place) – Quebec
Developed by Bombardier with Phase I opening August 6, 1993.
30,000 sf of food services as well as convenience retail in small town plaza format.
In 1999, Bombardier Immobilier sought permission to develop a golf course that would cover
more than nine million remaining sf. Le Challenger Golf Course has been open since June 2002
at the site of the former landing strip at the airport run by Canadair.
17% of the overall Bois Franc community is preserved for green spaces.
2,400 homes are grouped around parks, lakes, squares and piazzas.
Population of the neighbourhood is approximately 8,000.
Development components include, parks, bicycle paths and walking trails, a daycare centre and
a residence for independent retirees.
A functional clock tower in the town square serves as an observatory allowing guests to view
the entire development, while the fountain in the middle of the plaza creates a social node
where seating spills around.
All streets in the Bois-Franc development lead to the town square, which is the central
community hub and focal point of the entire Bois-Franc project, with its daily convenience retail
mix.
Parking facilities are located nearby, with an emphasis placed on making these as visually
unobtrusive as possible.
Internal street layout is designed to discourage all but local traffic, although public transit
service does circulate within the development and to La Grand Place.
Though the design includes a small amount of second level mixed-use; the facades are largely
false, allowing for more dramatic internal spaces, but giving the project a more intimate and
appropriate scale that makes the town plaza feel larger than it actually is.
114
Case Study Profiles
115
Case Study Profiles
Excelsior & Grand, Minneapolis, Minnesota
Size: Retail 86,000 sf
Residential Phase 1 Rental Units - 337
Residential Phase 2, 3 & 4 Condo Units – 323
Site Size: 16.5 acres
Location Context: Inner Suburban
Anchor Tenants: Trader Joe’s
Tenants: Pier 1 Imports, Starbucks, Coldstone Creamery, Panera Bread, McCoys
Retail was 95% leased as of early 2005, with leases ranging from $20 to $32 psf.
Since Excelsior Boulevard is a county road, approval was granted from the county for the installation
of a traffic signal at the intersection of Grand Way.
Total of 1,090 parking spaces with 2 parking structures (470 stalls). Approximately 400 underground
spaces for apartment residents, with 220 above ground free for visitors. On-street parking is found
on all streets.
Land use plan broken into five blocks, three of which have frontage on Excelsior Boulevard, and two
that overlook Wolfe Park. The town green concept, now called Grand Way, is the “Main Street” of
the project (2.1 acres) designed for interaction, strolling, and public events.
Retail uses at ground level, wide, brick-paved sidewalks, outdoor seating for restaurants, decorative
lampposts, kiosks, elevated crosswalks, wide median with walking paths, benches, fountains, public
art, and plantings.
Site previously consisted of 36 separate parcels lined with blighted single-use properties housing a
variety of businesses, including infamous bars, pawnshops, and sexually oriented businesses. These
uses were generally unpopular within the community, and thus the area was targeted for
redevelopment. The City began land assembly in mid-1990s, acquiring all the sites by the end of
2000. It did not use eminent domain. In order to ensure timely approvals for development at
Excelsior and Grand, City of St. Louis Park drafted an entirely new mixed-use zoning code (MX).
Based on mixed-use and New Urbanist projects around the United States.
116
Case Study Profiles
117
Case Study Profiles
118
Case Study Profiles
119
Orenco Station, Portland, Oregon
General Overview
• Location: Hillsboro, Oregon
• Population: 2,600+
• Site Size:
260 Acres
• Groundbreaking: 1997
• Uses:
Residential, Retail, Restaurants, Office, Services and Recreational.
The neighbourhood is centred and arranged around parks and a busy Main
Street.
Instead of catering to personal vehicles, there is a strong focus on encouraging
the use of public transportation.
Pedestrian walkways and bicycle lanes are interwoven and featured
prominently throughout the development.
The community is designed to mimic older style neighbourhoods before that
were popular before the 1950’s post-war suburban boom.
Residential options include apartments, single family houses, condominiums
and town-homes to allow residents the proper choice of housing that will
suite their needs.
From late spring to early fall, a farmers market allows residents to buy fresh
local produce close to their homes.
Connected by Portland’s MAX Light-rail service to other parts of the city.
120
Structure and Design:
 Zoning ordinances were changed to allow for more narrow streets, sideyard easements, alley accessible garages and smaller setbacks for single
family detached homes.
Stats and Other Notes:
 Transit use is high compared to other neighbourhoods and communities.
A study in 2002 showed 22% of residents used public transit for
commuting. The surrounding region was listed at only 6%.

The street structure is a simple grid design, extending out from the Main
Street and the light rail station with a strong pedestrian spine.

There are over 1,800 residential units within the 260 acres. This translates
to 7 units per acre on average.

A formal central park is located north of the Main Street, and is the actual
geographical centre of the community.

Located 15 miles west of Portland; on the edge of the ‘Silicon Forest’ –
home to high tech giants Intel and Lattice.

To make up for the smaller yards, small parks and green areas are spread
throughout Orenco, which can be used for recreational purposes and
public gathering spaces.

In the Town centre, buildings line the street with parking in the rear
instead of the front. This creates the feeling of shopping in a downtown
district with shop windows looking out onto sidewalks instead of parking
stalls.

Mixed-use buildings were required in some areas during construction.
Retail Elements:
 Retail uses are carefully developed to provide the community residents
with useful choices for shopping and services:

Dining Options – Two Restaurants and a Cafe

Shopping – Pet Store, Clothing, Wine and Cigars

Services – Optometrist, Chiropractor, Pediatrics, Financial Advisor,
Insurance, Accounting, Banks, and more.
121
122
Orenco Station – Portland, Oregon
123
Orenco Station – Portland, Oregon
124
®
DEVELOPMENT STRATEGISTS LTD
2 011
125
APPENDIX A
TRADE AREA EXPENDITURE TABLES
126
PTA WEST LETHBRIDGE
PTA West Lethbridge
Grocery & Speci a l ty Foods
2010
2012
2015
2017
2020
% Annual Growth
$108,841,677
$122,286,853
$145,623,456
$163,663,250
$194,940,355
6.00%
$9,299,661
$10,448,011
$12,430,332
$13,975,275
$16,637,348
5.99%
Al cohol & Toba cco
$21,580,398
$24,262,989
$28,901,484
$32,485,300
$38,713,829
6.02%
Pers ona l Servi ces
$17,205,993
$19,334,027
$23,013,432
$25,848,075
$30,806,518
6.00%
Depa rtment Stores
$49,479,381
$55,607,022
$66,269,448
$74,493,575
$88,762,994
6.02%
Cl othi ng Stores
$14,451,738
$16,244,748
$19,357,452
$21,725,575
$25,870,162
6.00%
Shoe Stores
$1,717,359
$1,909,105
$2,232,072
$2,473,500
$2,925,248
5.89%
Jewel ry Stores
$2,527,434
$2,846,302
$3,386,592
$3,792,700
$4,479,286
5.87%
Hea l th & Bea uty
$15,521,037
$17,459,633
$20,781,360
$23,333,350
$27,789,856
5.99%
Home Furni s hi ngs & Acces s ori es
$20,478,696
$23,013,393
$27,400,608
$30,795,075
$36,702,721
6.00%
$5,638,122
$6,317,402
$7,542,864
$8,492,350
$10,101,247
6.03%
$10,174,542
$11,454,630
$13,623,336
$15,335,700
$18,237,093
6.00%
Books & Mul timedi a
$8,878,422
$9,996,768
$11,891,556
$13,356,900
$15,906,036
5.98%
Sporting Goods & Outdoor Recrea tion
$3,499,524
$3,957,054
$4,733,532
$5,318,025
$6,307,566
5.98%
Toys & Hobbi es
$4,115,181
$4,616,563
$5,464,728
$6,142,525
$7,358,827
5.98%
Mi s cel l a neous Speci a l ty
$1,296,120
$1,457,862
$1,731,780
$1,937,575
$2,285,350
5.67%
Genera l Mercha ndi s ers & Wa rehous e Cl ubs
$89,723,907
$100,835,455
$120,108,564
$134,970,650
$160,751,519
6.00%
Ful l Servi ce Res taura nts
$16,817,157
$18,917,495
$22,551,624
$25,353,375
$30,212,327
6.02%
Li mi ted Servi ce Res taura nts
$12,183,528
$13,676,134
$16,317,216
$18,345,125
$21,847,946
6.03%
Fa mi l y Entertai nment & Conces s i ons
$3,175,494
$3,540,522
$4,233,240
$4,782,100
$5,713,375
6.05%
Pubs , Ba rs & Ni ghtcl ubs
$5,152,077
$5,796,737
$6,888,636
$7,709,075
$9,232,814
5.97%
$421,757,448
$473,978,705
$564,483,312
$634,329,075
$755,582,417
6.00%
Pha rma cy
Home El ectroni cs & Appl i a nces
Home Improvement & Ga rdeni ng
Total Expenditure
127
PTA EAST LETHBRIDGE
PTA East Lethbridge
2010
2012
2015
2017
2020
% Annual Growth
$167,141,793
$177,695,220
$194,779,482
$207,092,600
$227,058,832
3.11%
Pha rma cy
$14,262,339
$15,190,860
$16,621,476
$17,712,600
$19,394,136
3.11%
Al cohol & Toba cco
$33,118,540
$35,247,120
$38,636,676
$41,106,600
$45,026,152
3.11%
$26,387,998
$28,057,140
$30,766,242
$32,695,900
$35,839,456
3.11%
Depa rtment Stores
$76,065,808
$80,927,820
$88,666,218
$94,244,400
$103,265,268
3.10%
Cl othi ng Stores
$22,221,472
$23,624,220
$25,867,860
$27,515,800
$30,168,656
3.11%
Shoe Stores
$2,617,433
$2,757,060
$2,972,052
$3,119,200
$3,345,772
2.85%
Jewel ry Stores
$3,899,441
$4,162,620
$4,568,154
$4,845,900
$5,273,844
2.95%
Hea l th & Bea uty
$23,823,982
$25,300,080
$27,739,152
$29,521,000
$32,380,268
3.13%
$31,462,613
$33,463,140
$36,655,308
$38,990,000
$42,757,832
3.11%
$8,653,554
$9,190,200
$10,016,916
$10,694,400
$11,738,556
3.10%
$15,704,598
$16,704,540
$18,327,654
$19,495,000
$21,378,916
3.12%
$13,674,752
$14,542,140
$15,961,020
$16,932,800
$18,600,224
3.12%
$5,341,700
$5,730,360
$6,329,370
$6,739,700
$7,372,040
3.11%
Toys & Hobbi es
$6,356,623
$6,757,500
$7,375,092
$7,798,000
$8,619,616
3.10%
$1,976,429
$2,108,340
$2,311,596
$2,450,800
$2,665,276
2.85%
$137,869,277
$146,610,720
$160,765,998
$170,943,300
$187,476,648
3.12%
$25,853,828
$27,462,480
$30,105,786
$32,027,500
$35,102,252
3.11%
$18,695,950
$19,894,080
$21,795,048
$23,171,200
$25,405,184
3.09%
$4,914,364
$5,189,760
$5,668,914
$6,071,300
$6,691,544
3.15%
$7,905,716
$8,433,360
$9,246,384
$9,803,200
$10,774,520
3.11%
$647,948,210
$689,048,760
$755,176,398
$802,971,200
$880,334,992
3.11%
Total Expenditure
128
STA 30-MINUTE DRIVE TIME ZONE
STA 30-Min DTZ
2010
2012
2015
2017
2020
$45,005,642
$48,909,700
$55,407,392
$60,213,084
$68,233,164
4.25%
Pha rma cy
$3,835,909
$4,168,752
$4,731,072
$5,132,136
$5,816,872
4.24%
Al cohol & Toba cco
$8,926,885
$9,708,804
$11,000,704
$11,955,092
$13,537,828
4.24%
$7,123,831
$7,734,132
$8,769,792
$9,528,268
$10,796,784
4.26%
Depa rtment Stores
$20,487,643
$22,269,912
$25,213,152
$27,411,176
$31,030,292
4.24%
$5,974,826
$6,490,820
$7,346,624
$7,996,584
$9,060,092
4.25%
$724,757
$786,212
$884,672
$954,816
$1,067,124
3.79%
Jewel ry Stores
$1,025,266
$1,097,040
$1,269,312
$1,392,440
$1,590,224
4.56%
Hea l th & Bea uty
$6,416,751
$6,966,204
$7,904,352
$8,593,344
$9,729,660
4.27%
$8,467,283
$9,196,852
$10,423,744
$11,338,440
$12,847,336
4.26%
$2,315,687
$2,504,908
$2,846,336
$3,103,152
$3,515,232
4.29%
$4,242,480
$4,607,568
$5,211,872
$5,669,220
$6,402,744
4.21%
$3,694,493
$4,004,196
$4,538,752
$4,933,216
$5,586,708
4.25%
$1,449,514
$1,572,424
$1,769,344
$1,909,632
$2,155,172
4.21%
Toys & Hobbi es
$1,696,992
$1,828,400
$2,096,288
$2,287,580
$2,594,576
4.31%
$547,987
$603,372
$692,352
$755,896
$857,884
4.33%
$37,121,700
$40,352,788
$45,714,464
$49,670,324
$56,264,636
4.24%
$6,947,061
$7,551,292
$8,558,240
$9,289,564
$10,524,772
4.25%
$5,055,622
$5,485,200
$6,231,168
$6,763,280
$7,679,108
4.27%
$1,343,452
$1,462,720
$1,653,952
$1,790,280
$2,008,704
4.15%
$2,121,240
$2,303,784
$2,596,320
$2,804,772
$3,201,372
4.21%
$174,525,021
$189,605,080
$214,859,904
$233,492,296
$264,500,284
4.25%
Cl othi ng Stores
Shoe Stores
Total Expenditure
% Annual Growth
129
STA NORTH
STA North
2010
2012
2015
2017
2020
$32,267,004
$34,584,314
$38,387,445
$41,146,171
$45,654,305
3.53%
Pha rma cy
$2,764,916
$2,968,167
$3,286,440
$3,523,267
$3,917,795
3.52%
Al cohol & Toba cco
$6,398,392
$6,851,888
$7,607,500
$8,164,046
$9,050,906
3.54%
$5,095,552
$5,463,790
$6,055,570
$6,487,778
$7,195,950
3.51%
Depa rtment Stores
$14,693,140
$15,741,622
$17,466,820
$18,718,326
$20,772,309
3.52%
$4,284,896
$4,592,537
$5,097,025
$5,463,392
$6,060,589
3.51%
Shoe Stores
$521,136
$561,146
$623,815
$667,403
$735,586
3.31%
Jewel ry Stores
$738,276
$782,651
$852,040
$900,218
$991,442
3.41%
Hea l th & Bea uty
$4,603,368
$4,932,178
$5,477,400
$5,866,938
$6,508,337
3.52%
$6,079,920
$6,527,014
$7,242,340
$7,760,500
$8,619,149
3.53%
$1,679,216
$1,801,574
$1,993,165
$2,126,377
$2,366,668
3.52%
$3,025,484
$3,233,973
$3,590,740
$3,849,208
$4,269,597
3.53%
$2,634,632
$2,835,264
$3,149,505
$3,368,057
$3,741,894
3.51%
$1,056,748
$1,137,059
$1,262,845
$1,350,327
$1,487,163
3.36%
Toys & Hobbi es
$1,215,984
$1,299,496
$1,430,210
$1,521,058
$1,695,046
3.51%
$390,852
$428,243
$486,880
$527,714
$591,667
3.92%
$26,621,364
$28,529,844
$31,662,415
$33,928,906
$37,642,814
3.52%
$4,979,744
$5,345,654
$5,933,850
$6,363,610
$7,068,022
3.54%
$3,619,000
$3,868,954
$4,305,845
$4,609,737
$5,117,120
3.54%
$969,892
$1,048,457
$1,171,555
$1,257,201
$1,391,217
3.45%
$1,505,504
$1,624,370
$1,810,585
$1,940,125
$2,142,794
3.54%
$125,145,020
$134,158,195
$148,893,990
$159,540,359
$177,020,370
3.52%
Cl othi ng Stores
Total Expenditure
% Annual Growth
130
STA SOUTHWEST
STA Southwest
2010
2012
2015
$83,030,250
$88,993,658
$98,777,973
$105,875,638
$117,474,685
3.53%
$7,114,750
$7,637,799
$8,456,616
$9,065,926
$10,081,015
3.52%
Al cohol & Toba cco
$16,464,500
$17,631,536
$19,575,500
$21,007,388
$23,289,202
3.54%
$13,112,000
$14,059,630
$15,582,098
$16,694,084
$18,516,150
3.51%
Depa rtment Stores
$37,808,750
$40,506,934
$44,945,348
$48,165,228
$53,449,953
3.52%
Cl othi ng Stores
$11,026,000
$11,817,689
$13,115,585
$14,058,176
$15,594,713
3.51%
Shoe Stores
$1,341,000
$1,443,962
$1,605,191
$1,717,334
$1,892,762
3.31%
Jewel ry Stores
$1,899,750
$2,013,947
$2,192,456
$2,316,404
$2,551,114
3.41%
Hea l th & Bea uty
$11,845,500
$12,691,666
$14,094,360
$15,096,564
$16,746,829
3.52%
$15,645,000
$16,795,558
$18,635,876
$19,969,000
$22,178,233
3.53%
$4,321,000
$4,635,878
$5,128,781
$5,471,506
$6,089,756
3.52%
$7,785,250
$8,321,781
$9,239,636
$9,904,624
$10,986,249
3.53%
$6,779,500
$7,295,808
$8,104,257
$8,666,546
$9,628,398
3.50%
$2,719,250
$2,925,923
$3,249,533
$3,474,606
$3,826,671
3.36%
Toys & Hobbi es
$3,129,000
$3,343,912
$3,680,194
$3,913,924
$4,361,582
3.50%
$1,005,750
$1,101,971
$1,252,832
$1,357,892
$1,522,439
3.92%
$68,502,750
$73,414,068
$81,473,231
$87,304,468
$96,860,038
3.52%
$12,814,000
$13,755,638
$15,268,890
$16,374,580
$18,186,974
3.54%
$9,312,500
$9,955,738
$11,079,733
$11,861,586
$13,167,040
3.54%
$2,495,750
$2,697,929
$3,014,627
$3,234,978
$3,579,789
3.45%
$3,874,000
$4,179,890
$4,658,969
$4,992,250
$5,513,698
3.54%
$322,026,250
$345,220,915
$383,131,686
$410,522,702
$455,497,290
3.52%
Pha rma cy
Total Expenditure
2017
2020
% Annual Growth
131
STA SOUTHEAST
STA Southeast
2010
2012
2015
2017
2020
$36,658,134
$39,289,392
$43,607,532
$46,742,432
$51,863,930
3.53%
Pha rma cy
$3,141,186
$3,371,976
$3,733,344
$4,002,464
$4,450,670
3.52%
Al cohol & Toba cco
$7,269,132
$7,784,064
$8,642,000
$9,274,432
$10,281,956
3.54%
$5,788,992
$6,207,120
$6,879,032
$7,370,176
$8,174,700
3.51%
Depa rtment Stores
$16,692,690
$17,883,216
$19,842,032
$21,264,192
$23,597,634
3.52%
$4,868,016
$5,217,336
$5,790,140
$6,206,464
$6,884,914
3.51%
Shoe Stores
$592,056
$637,488
$708,644
$758,176
$835,636
3.31%
Jewel ry Stores
$838,746
$889,128
$967,904
$1,022,656
$1,126,292
3.41%
Hea l th & Bea uty
$5,229,828
$5,603,184
$6,222,240
$6,664,896
$7,393,562
3.52%
$6,907,320
$7,414,992
$8,227,184
$8,816,000
$9,791,474
3.53%
$1,907,736
$2,046,672
$2,264,204
$2,415,584
$2,688,568
3.52%
$3,437,214
$3,673,944
$4,079,024
$4,372,736
$4,850,322
3.53%
$2,993,172
$3,220,992
$3,577,788
$3,826,144
$4,250,844
3.50%
$1,200,558
$1,291,752
$1,434,572
$1,533,984
$1,689,438
3.36%
Toys & Hobbi es
$1,381,464
$1,476,288
$1,624,696
$1,727,936
$1,925,596
3.50%
$444,042
$486,504
$553,088
$599,488
$672,142
3.92%
$30,244,194
$32,411,232
$35,968,004
$38,543,552
$42,762,764
3.52%
$5,657,424
$6,072,912
$6,740,760
$7,229,120
$8,029,372
3.54%
$4,111,500
$4,395,312
$4,891,372
$5,236,704
$5,813,120
3.54%
$1,101,882
$1,191,096
$1,330,868
$1,428,192
$1,580,442
3.45%
$1,710,384
$1,845,360
$2,056,796
$2,204,000
$2,434,244
3.54%
$142,175,670
$152,409,960
$169,141,224
$181,239,328
$201,097,620
3.52%
Cl othi ng Stores
Total Expenditure
% Annual Growth
132
TOTAL TRADE AREA EXPENDITURE
TOTAL TRADE AREA EXPENDITURE
2010
2012
2015
2017
2020
% Annual Growth
$472,944,500
$511,759,137
$576,583,280
$624,733,175
$705,225,271
4.12%
Pha rma cy
$40,418,761
$43,785,565
$49,259,280
$53,411,668
$60,297,836
4.11%
Al cohol & Toba cco
$93,757,847
$101,486,401
$114,363,864
$123,992,858
$139,899,873
4.13%
$74,714,366
$80,855,839
$91,066,166
$98,624,281
$111,329,558
4.12%
Depa rtment Stores
$215,227,412
$232,936,526
$262,403,018
$284,296,897
$320,878,450
4.12%
$62,826,948
$67,987,350
$76,574,686
$82,965,991
$93,639,126
4.11%
$7,513,741
$8,094,973
$9,026,446
$9,690,429
$10,802,128
3.89%
Jewel ry Stores
$10,928,913
$11,791,688
$13,236,458
$14,270,318
$16,012,202
4.03%
Hea l th & Bea uty
$67,440,466
$72,952,945
$82,218,864
$89,076,092
$100,548,512
4.12%
$89,040,832
$96,410,949
$108,585,060
$117,669,015
$132,896,745
4.12%
$24,515,315
$26,496,634
$29,792,266
$32,303,369
$36,500,027
4.12%
$44,369,568
$47,996,436
$54,072,262
$58,626,488
$66,124,921
4.12%
$38,654,971
$41,895,168
$47,222,878
$51,083,663
$57,714,104
4.11%
$15,267,294
$16,614,572
$18,779,196
$20,326,274
$22,838,050
4.06%
Toys & Hobbi es
$17,895,244
$19,322,159
$21,671,208
$23,391,023
$26,555,243
4.11%
$5,661,180
$6,186,292
$7,028,528
$7,629,365
$8,594,758
4.07%
$390,083,192
$422,154,107
$475,692,676
$515,361,200
$581,758,419
4.12%
$73,069,214
$79,105,471
$89,159,150
$96,637,749
$109,123,719
4.13%
$52,978,100
$57,275,418
$64,620,382
$69,987,632
$79,029,518
4.13%
$14,000,834
$15,130,484
$17,073,156
$18,564,051
$20,965,071
4.11%
$22,268,921
$24,183,501
$27,257,690
$29,453,422
$33,299,442
4.12%
$1,833,577,619 $1,984,421,615 $2,235,686,514 $2,422,094,960 $2,734,032,973
4.12%
Cl othi ng Stores
Shoe Stores
Total Expenditure
133

Crossings Land Use Development Strategy Final

Transcription

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