SESB`s Perspective on “Challengers and Prospects in Enhancing

SESB`s Perspective on “Challengers and Prospects in Enhancing

SESB’s Perspective on
“Challengers and Prospects in Enhancing
Malaysia Energy Security”
Presenter :
Ir. Abdul Nasser Abdul Wahid
Senior General Manager (Asset Development)
28 February 2012
1
Presentation Contents
• SUPPLY AND DEMAND GROWTH
• CAPITAL INVESTMENT & OPERATING
SUBSIDY
• WAY FORWARD
– FUTURE DEVELOPMENT
– RENEWABLE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT
– DEMAND SIDE MANAGEMENT
– ENERGY EFFICIENCY
• CONCLUSION
2
SUPPLY & DEMAND GROWTH
3
ELECTRICITY SUPPLY SYSTEM SABAH 1984
KUDAT
6MW
KOTA BELUD
2MW
• LLS BECOME A FEDERAL AGENCY UNDER THE
MINISTRY OF ENERGY, TELECOMMUNICATION AND POST
• ISOLATED SMALL SYSTEM
• MOSTLY DIESEL GEN SET WITH ONE HYDRO
• GRID SYSTEM COVERING WEST COAST ONLY
• <50% ELECTRICITY COVERAGE
KUDAT
MD 2.5MW
MD 1.5MW
KOTA BELUD
TG.ARU
95MW
SANDAKAN
42 MW
SANDAKAN
MD 23.6MW
KOTA KINABALU
PAPAR
KENINGAU
4 MW
MD 69.3MW
BEAUFORT
KENINGAU
LAHAD DATU
7 MW
MD 2.8MW
WP LABUAN
LABUAN
28MW
MD 12.3MW
DATU
•ESTIMATED OVERALL
MAXIMUM DEMANDLAHAD
: 134MW
TENOM
PANGI
•NO. OF
CUSTOMERS : 109,716
TENOM PANGI HIDRO
66 MW
LEGEND
SESB INSTALLED CAPACITY
MAXIMUM DEMAND
TAWAU
41 MW
MD 16MW
SEMPORNA
MD 3.5MW
SEMPORNA
2 MW
MD 1.5MW
TAWAU
44
ELECTRICITY SUPPLY SYSTEM SABAH 1998
KUDAT
ARL
50 MW
POWERTRON
136 MW
GANTISAN
38 MW
MELAWA
44 MW
TG.ARU
27 MW
KOTA BELUD
8.9MW
MD 5.26MW
KUDAT
13.9MW
MD 5.1MW
K.BELUD
SAYAP
1 MW
MELANGKAP
1 MW
KOTA KINABALU
MD 244.9MW
KIAU
0.4MW
• LLS WAS PRIVATIZED ON 1ST SEPTEMBER 1998
AND CALLED SABAH ELECTRICITY SDN. BHD.
• THE WEST COAST GRID SYSTEM GREW
• GENERATION MIX CONSIST OF HYDRO 17%, GAS
31% & OIL 52%
• INTRODUCTION OF IPP
WITH 1ST PLANT
COMMISSIONED ON 31ST OCTOBER 1995
SANDAKAN
41 MW
SANDAKAN
CARABAU
2 MW
PAPAR
MD 45.5MW
LIBARAN
64.4 MW
BEAUFORT
KENINGAU
•ESTIMATED OVERALL
MAXIMUM DEMAND : 373MW
•NO. OF CUSTOMERS : 262,696
WP LABUAN
PATAU-PATAU
(112 MW)
LAHAD DATU
TENOM
PANGI
TENOM PANGI HYDRO
66 MW
MEROTAI
1.3 MW
BOMBALAI
1 MW
IPP INSTALLED CAPACITY
SESB INSTALLED CAPACITY
MAXIMUM DEMAND
MD 13.73MW
SEMPORNA
LEGEND
TAWAU
50 MW
MD 39.7MW
LAHAD DATU
20.35MW
TAWAU
SEMPORNA
4 MW
MD 3 MW
SERUDONG
37.5 MW
5
5
ELECTRICITY SUPPLY SYSTEM SABAH ( As of Dec 2011)
SUTERA
38 MW
ARLT
50 MW
TELUK SALUT
212 MW
SBPC
112 MW
RUGADING
205 MW
MELA WA
44 MW
KK RENTAL
SETS 21.7MW
ESAJADI SG.PANGAPUYAN
KUDAT
4.8 MW
ESAJADI SG.KADAMAIAN
2.1 MW
SEGUNTUR BIOENERGY
& KINA BIOPOWER 23
MW
KOTA MARUDU
KOTA BELUD
SPC
34 MW
LIBARAN
64.4 MW
KOTA KINABALU
SEGALIUD
PAPAR
• WEST & EAST COASTS INTER-CONNECTED
IN 2007
• GENERATION MIX CONSIST OF HYDRO 9%,
GAS 67%, BIOMASS 3% & OIL 21%
• ELECTRIFICATION COVERAGE OF 81.5%
LABUK, SANDAKAN
9.4 MW
GANTISAN, SANDAKAN
38 MW
BATU SAPI, SANDAKAN
45 MW
SIM-SIM RENTAL SETS
20 MW
LAHAD DATU
21.5 MW
SANDAKAN
K. KINABATANGAN
WP LABUAN
PATAU-PATAU
112 MW
BEAUFORTMAXIMUM DEMAND ACHIEVED : 830MW
•SYSTEM
KENINGAU
•NO. OF CUSTOMERS
: 464,053
RD
•SAIDI CY: SECTOR 1 (307.66) ; SECTOR 2DAM
(632.28);
SECTOR 3 (990.80)
TENOM
L. DATU
•SABAH SAIDI
YTD :494.57
PANGI
KUNAK
TENOM PANGI
66 MW
TSH BIOENERGY
14 MW
KALUMPANG
LEGEND
IPP INSTALLED CAPACITY
SESB INSTALLED CAPACITY
LAHAD DATU POIC
RENTAL SETS
20 MW
SERUDONG
TAWAU
37.5 MW
SEMPORNA
SEMPORNA
6 MW
TAWAU
64 MW
TAWAU PASIR PUTIH
RENTAL SETS
21.2 MW
66
MANUFACTURING: Sabah will leverage its natural resources as feedstock
to capture value in downstream activities
Industrial Corridor
Wood-Based Industry
Cluster
POIC Sandakan
Business Link
Centres
Sabah Oil and Gas
Terminal
Minerals Based Industry
Sipitang Energy Intensive
Cluster
POIC Lahad Datu
Incentives
7
Load Forecast 2012-2030
Load Forecast (MW)
2500
2000
~ 2500 MW!
1500
~ 900 MW
1000
Load Forecast (MW)
500
Load
Forecast
(MW)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
918 1,001 1,074 1,152 1,223 1,312 1,387 1,476 1,546 1,634 1,714 1,808 1,887 1,978 2,059 2,162 2,257 2,369 2,474
8
CAPITAL INVESTMENT
&
OPERATING SUBSIDY
9
Capital Investment (CAPEX)
• Over the last 15 years a total KUDAT
of RM 5.3 Billion had been invested by the Government and Private
Investor in the development of Generation, Transmission, Distribution Projects And IPP/SREP projects.
CapexKOTA
Funding
BELUD
150
KOTA KINABALU
•IN 2010 a special budget allocation of RM 419.5 Mill
for the ‘SAIDI 700’ was approved by the Government.
Subsequently RM200Mill in 2011 under ‘SAIDI 477’ and
RM88Mill in 2012 for ‘SAIDI 367’.
SANDAKAN
328
729
PAPAR
SESB SAIDI CY2006 - 2011
BEAUFORT
WP LABUAN
703
KENINGAU
357
5,000.00
4,030.00
27
4,000.00
LAHAD DATU
2,867.23
TENOM
3,000.00
PANGI725
1103
1,986.58
2,000.00
1,855.80
867
1,000.00
290
48
687.38
494.64
2010
2011
SEMPORNA
2006
2007
TAWAU
2008
SAIDI
2009
10
Cost of Production (OPEX)
KUDAT
KOTA BELUD
KOTA KINABALU
SANDAKAN
PAPAR
BEAUFORT
KENINGAU
WP LABUAN
New tariff
eff. 15
July 2011
LAHAD DATU
TENOM
PANGI
29.08
SEMPORNA
TAWAU
11
11
Operating Subsidy
KUDAT
• Since Privatization, SESB had been operating at a lost due to the high IPP and
Fuel Payment
KOTA BELUD
• To ease SESB financial burden, the Government had subsidized the fuel oil
consumed, whereby SESB will be reimbursed for fuel payment on Medium Fuel
KOTA KINABALU
SANDAKAN
Oil (MFO) and Diesel Fuel Oil (DFO) above the prices
of RM 0.42/liter and RM
0.495/liter
respectively used by both IPP and SESB.
PAPAR
• Under the fuel pass through mechanism for IPP running on MFO, the IPP are
required to pay forKENINGAU
the used of MFO at market priced, SESB will pay the IPP
based on the weighted average cost of fuel (RM/GJ) delivered to the IPP, SESB
LAHAD DATU
TENOM
will then
be
reimbursed
to
cost
of
fuel
base
on
the
fuel support subsidy
PANGI
mechanism.
BEAUFORT
WP LABUAN
SEMPORNA
TAWAU
12
12
SESB COST OF SUPPLY BY COST COMPONENT FY2010
80.000
75.54 sen/kWh
1.859
70.000
10.685
Petronas Foregone Gas Revenue
30.92 sen/kWh
60.000
sen / kWh
50.000
26.720
44.62 sen/kWh
1.859
40.000
10.685
30.000
Fuel Oil (diesel & MFO) subsidy
12.93 sen/kWh
31.69 sen/kWh
1.859
20.365
10.685
20.365
20.000
4.210
-
14.221
11.707
11.707
4.922
Oil & Gas at Market Price
Oil only at Market Price
After Fuel subsidy
10.000
-
Fuel Cost (SESB)
Petronas Foregone Gas Revenue (SESB)
Payment IPP
Petronas Foregone Gas Revenue (IPP)
O&M (non fuel)
Finance Cost
Actual Financial Status 2004 - 2011
•TOTAL FUEL SUBSIDY BY GOVERNMENT
SINCE 2005 IS AT RM 3,211 MILL
48
RM MILLION
521
535
436
304
548
426
469
296
273
499
446
366
326
431
499
341
406
246
418
390
338
277
186
706
662
529
724
585
828
635
867
747
977
774
1116
815
1108
880
466
Total Operating Income
Fuel Support Subsidy
Tariff Support Subsidy
Payment to IPP
Fuel Cost (SESB)
O&M
14
FINANCIAL PROJECTIONS WITH TARIFF INCREASE
NEVERTHELESS GOV SUBSIDY STILL REQUIRED (FUEL SUBSIDY AND TSS)
SUMMARY INCOME STATEMENT
FINANCIAL YEAR
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
RM Million
REVENUE
Sale of Electricity
Transfer from consumer contribution
Goods and Services
Total Revenue
1,383
46
33
1,462
1,492
43
33
1,569
1,796
41
30
1,866
1,923
39
27
1,990
2,053
38
29
2,120
2,405
34
29
2,469
2,554
30
29
2,613
2,706
26
30
2,762
3,146
23
29
3,197
OPERATING COST
Fuel Cost (SESB)
Payment to IPP
O&M
Total Operating Costs
743
860
458
2,061
1,033
885
504
2,422
863
997
547
2,406
45
2,019
594
2,659
9
2,149
673
2,832
14
2,144
669
2,827
11
2,356
734
3,101
16
2,380
803
3,199
22
2,352
836
3,210
(598)
(853)
(540)
(669)
(711)
(359)
(488)
(437)
(13)
Fuel subsidy (diesel & MFO)
Tariff Support Subsidy
Transfer from Govt development grant
Other Operating Income
641
111
43
16
870
160
40
17
729
15
38
17
33
860
35
17
972
33
17
658
32
17
820
30
17
808
29
18
403
27
18
Interest on Loan
(70)
(91)
(118)
(127)
(161)
(187)
(229)
(263)
(297)
Net Profit/(Loss) before tax
143
143
141
150
150
161
151
155
139
Operating Profit/(Loss)
RORB
5%
5%
5%
5%
5%
LNG at market price
5%
5%
5%
5%
FINANCIAL PROJECTIONS WITH TARIFF INCREASE
NEVERTHELESS GOV SUBSIDY STILL REQUIRED (FUEL SUBSIDY AND TSS)
SUMMARY INCOME STATEMENT
FINANCIAL YEAR
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
RM Million
REVENUE
Sale of Electricity
Transfer from consumer contribution
Goods and Services
Total Revenue
1,383
46
33
1,462
1,492
43
33
1,569
1,796
41
30
1,866
1,923
39
27
1,990
2,053
38
29
2,120
2,405
34
29
2,469
2,554
30
29
2,613
2,706
26
30
2,762
3,146
23
29
3,197
OPERATING COST
Fuel Cost (SESB)
Payment to IPP
O&M
Total Operating Costs
743
860
458
2,061
1,033
885
504
2,422
863
997
547
2,406
45
1,308
594
1,947
9
1,441
673
2,123
14
1,431
669
2,115
11
1,648
734
2,393
16
1,668
803
2,486
22
1,643
836
2,501
(598)
(853)
(540)
43
354
220
276
696
Fuel subsidy (diesel & MFO)
Tariff Support Subsidy
Transfer from Govt development grant
Other Operating Income
641
111
43
16
870
160
40
17
729
15
38
17
33
148
35
17
262
33
17
-
-
-
32
17
111
30
17
Interest on Loan
(70)
(91)
(118)
(126)
(160)
(184)
(224)
(258)
(285)
Net Profit/(Loss) before tax
143
143
141
150
151
219
154
158
456
Operating Profit/(Loss)
RORB
Assumption:
1 20% Capex funded by Government Soft loan
2 Gas at subsidized price (RM/mmBTU)
6.40
3 LNG Price (2015 to 2020) (RM/mmBTU)
6.40
4 Tariff Increase in 2014 12%, 2017 10% and 2020 10%
5%
5%
5%
5%
(2)
5%
5%
5%
94
29
18
5%
LNG subsidized at RM6.40 per mmBTU
27
18
5%
GOVERNMENT SUBSIDIES & FOREGONE
REVENUE FOR GAS – LNG at market price
Assumption:
1 20% Capex funded by Government Soft loan
2 Gas at subsidized price (RM/mmBTU)
6.40
3 LNG Price (2015 to 2020) (RM/mmBTU)
47.47
4 Tariff Increase in 2014 12%, 2017 10% and 2020 10%
5 LNG plant using KPSB tariff
GOVERNMENT SUBSIDIES & FOREGONE
REVENUE FOR GAS – LNG at RM6.40/mmBTU
2,500
2,106
2,000
1,968
2,249
1,309
2,253
2,385
1,524
1,500
RM Million
2,118
1,202
1,000
160
15
111
500
870
641
729
972
860
658
820
808
403
2012
2013
2014
Fuel subsidy (diesel & MFO)
Assumption:
1 20% Capex funded by Government Soft loan
2 Gas at subsidized price (RM/mmBTU)
6.40
3 LNG Price (2015 to 2020) (RM/mmBTU)
6.40
4 Tariff Increase in 2014 12%, 2017 10% and 2020 10%
5 LNG plant using KPSB tariff
33
-
-
-
-
-
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Tariff Support Subsidy
Petronas Foregone Revenue For Gas & LNG
Issues and Challenges in Meeting the Electricity Demand
19
19
OTHER OPERATIONAL ISSUES & CHALLENGES
• 2nd tiered (CRF) IPP with financial problem & deteriorating performance
• Too much dependency on natural gas (pipeline supplied)
– DSM & Load Sheeding if gas curtailment happened
– gas estimated to dominate 74% of Sabah Generation Mix in FY2015
• Prohibition in implementing 5 fuel-policy & Limited Future Generation
Resources
– Rejection of Coal Fired Power Plant in Sabah
– Limited gas allocation to Energy Sector
– Limited hydro resources
• Escalation of fossil fuel generation cost
– Retraction of fuel subsidy
– high IPP tariff
– high alternative fuel cost i.e LNG
• Funding challenge for hydro projects
– higher CAPEX however minimal operation cost
– Stringent International financing requirement
• Reliability issue of RE plants (mini hydro, biomass)
20
WAY FORWARD
21
FUTURE DEVELOPMENT
22
SESB Generation Plant-Up to Meet Demand & enhance Gen mix
New LNG CC100MW
Legend:
Terusan HEP 250MW
Limbang II HEP 200MW
(Decomm. TSH SREP 10MW)
New LNG CC100MW
New OCGT 65MW
650
New OCGT 65MW + Trusan 2 40MW
1150
Lawas HEP 100MW+ Trusan 1 38MW + Trusan 5
65MW (Decomm.Teluk Ewa 64MW)
1650
Upper Padas 150MW (Decomm. Serudung 36MW)
2150
(Decomm. ARL 48MW)
2650
New EC Gas 300MW (Decomm. SESB Oil Plant 125MW)
3150
Kimanis 300MW + SPR 100MW+ Tenom Pangi Upgrade 8 MW (Decomm.
SESB Oil 45MW + Mobile Set 6MW + Sutera H. DG 20MW + Buy
back option Genset 80MW + GTS 20MW Rehabilitation)
3650
Cash Horse 10MW + AFIE 8.2MW + Eco-Biomass
20MW + GTS 20MW Rehabilitation
4150
TNB Teluk Ewa 64MW + Kalansa 5MW
4650
Limbang I 45MW + Trusan 3 115MW + Tenom Pangi New
26MW (Decomm. Libaran 60MW + SPC 34MW)
Start August 2011
New LNG100MW + New CCGT 300MW
(Decomm TSCC 190MW+ SBPC 100MW +
SREP 20MW)
MW
Dependable Capacity (MW)
Load Demand (MW)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Load Forecast
918 1,001 1,074 1,152 1,223 1,312 1,387 1,476 1,546 1,634 1,714 1,808 1,887 1,978 2,059 2,162 2,257 2,369 2,474
(MW)
Dependable
1,207 1,266 1,504 1,504 1,680 1,633 1,747 1,747 1,841 1,980 2,085 2,150 2,250 2,440 2,440 2,690 2,690 2,790 2,880
Capacity (MW)
R. Margin (%)
31% 26% 40% 31% 37% 24% 26% 18% 19% 21% 22% 19% 19% 23% 19% 24% 19% 18% 16%
LOLE
0.745 1.504 0.099 0.427 0.055 0.489 0.204 0.891 1.409 0.770 0.748 1.248 1.121 0.168 0.726 0.037 0.237 0.336 0.456
(days/year)
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
24
Generation & Transmission Planning Up To 2019
Generation & Transmission Planning Up to 2019
Kudat
46.5km
SPR 100 MW
COD : 2014
Project Cost : RM534 Million
132kV Transmission Line Cost : RM110 Million
Kimanis 300MW
COD : 2014
Project Cost : RM1.5 Billion
275kV Transmission Line Cost :
RM146 Million
Kota Kinabalu
Lok Kawi
Papar
Kimanis
Mengaris
55km
G
76km
Kota Belud
Ranau
Penampang
Kolopis
31.5km
G
Sandakan
Sapi Nangoh
35.5km
G
45km
Year
Load Forecast
(MW)
Cumulative
Capacity (MW)
Reserve
Margin (%)
2012
918
1207
31
2013
1001
1266
26
2014
1074
1504
40
2015
1152
1504
31
2016
1223
1680
37
2017
1312
1633
24
2018
1387
1747
26
2019
1476
1747
18
Segaliud
255km
LEGEND :
Tambunan
132 kV (current)
51km
Labuan
Beaufort 40km
70km
Sipitang
275 kV (current)
113km
68.5km
Keningau
132 kV (future)
Dam Road
35.5km
Tenom Pangi
Tenom
Tenom II
40km
G
110km
5.3km
Upper Padas
Lahad Datu
G
Southern Link 275kV Transmission Project
COD : 2017
Project Cost : RM800 Million
Nabawan
300km
Kalumpang
33km
TNB Teluk Ewa 64MW
COD : 2012
Project Cost : RM80 Million
Proposed Project
90km
Kunak
Upper Padas 150MW
COD : 2018
Project Cost : RM1.6 Billion
275 kV (future)
G
Tawau
50km
New CCGT (LNG) 300MW
COD : Year 2016
Project
Cost : RM1.172 Billion
Semporna
275kV Transmission Cost : RM224
Million (Including upgrade of
Kalumpang to Segaliud Line to
275kV)
25
Generation, Transmission & Distribution Projects
2400
>9Bill investment
from 2012 to 2020
224
2200
2000
100
1800
RM MIL
1600
1400
1200
2034
1000
1600
800
600
400
200
0
119
25
200
48
256
61
140
2012
2013
IPP/Private Invester
1172
270
1132
980
750
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
YEAR
Generation
Transmission
Distribution 26
*Uo to 2013
RM MILLION
Projected Financial Status 2012 - 2020
•FUTURE SUBSIDY NEEDED FROM
GOVERNMENT FOR NEXT 9 YEARS
RM 6,853 MILL
1005
1008
837
652
527
550
458
586
492
985
1644
1012
81
101
104
76
156
326
1522
79
136
481
1395
598
930
774
710
651
496
1012
954
916
1765 1294
1886 1658
2008 1738
2133 1764
2261 1725
2392 1749
1185
Total Operating Income
Government Support Subsidy
FSS & TSS
Payment to IPP
Fuel Cost (SESB)
O&M
27
RENEWABLE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT
28
RENEWABLE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT IN MALAYSIA
8th Malaysia
Plan (2001 2005)
• RE as the 5th Fuel
• Implied 5% RE in energy mix
• Targeted RE capacity to be connected to power utility grid:
• 300 MW – Peninsular Malaysia; 50 MW - Sabah
• Targeted power generation mix:
9th Malaysia
Plan
(2006 – 2010)
RE as of 31st
December 2010
10th Malaysia
Plan
(2011-2015)
• 56% natural gas, 36% coal, 6% hydro, 0.2% oil
• 1.8% Renewable Energy
• Carbon intensity reduction target: 40% lower than 2005 levels by 2020
• Connected to the utility grid (as of 2010): 61.2 MW (17.5% from 9th MP target) – 32MW in
Sabah
• Off-grid: >430 MW (private palm oil millers and solar hybrid)
• New RE Policy and Action Plan T
• Target: 985 MW of RE by 2015 (~5.5% of energy mix)
Source: Ministry of Energy, Green Technology and Water, Energy Commission
29
RENEWABLE ENERGY PROJECT IN SABAH
SREP by KK Powergreen Sdn Bhd
Sg Kadamaian, Kota Belud (4.5MW)
Status : REPPA Negotiation Ongoing
KUDAT
KOTA MARUDU
KOTA BELUD
SREP by Afie Power Sdn Bhd
Sg Mulau & Sg. Mantaranau, Kiulu (8.9 MW)
Status : Under Construction
SREP by Esajadi Power Sdn Bhd
Sg Pangapuyan, Kota Marudu (4.5MW)
COD : January 2011
LEGEND :
Completed Projects 36.5MW
SREP by Esajadi Power Sdn Bhd
Sg Kadamaian, Kota Belud (2.0MW )
COD : 02 August 2009
Under Construction 73.9MW
Approved Projects
Total Exportable
Capacity
SREP Kalansa, Beluran (5.0MW)
Status : Under Construction
RANAU
K..KINABALU
SANDAKAN
SREP Warisan Harta, Sg. Mantaranau, Ranau
PAPAR(5.0MW)
Status : REPPA approved for signing
119 .9MW
SREP Kina Biopower, Sandakan (10MW)
COD = January 2009
SREP Seguntor Bioenergy Sandakan (10MW)
COD =March 2009
SEGALIUD
BEAUFORT
SREP Cash Horse Sdn. Bhd (10MW))
KM38-40 Sandakan-Kota Kinabatangan Road
Status : Under Construction
KENINGAU
WP LABUAN
DAM RD
TENOM
SIPITANG
9.5MW
PANGI
SREP Tawau Green Energy(30.0MW)
Status : Under Construction
SREP Eco-Biomass (20MW)
POIC Lahad Datu
Status : Under Construction
LAHAD DATU
KUNAK
KALUMPANG
OPERATIONAL SREP PROJECTS
Biomass Plant
Mini Hydro Plant
Exportable Capacity
30.0 MW
6.5 MW
30
SEMPORNA
SREP TSH Bioenergy, Kunak (10MW)
COD = Feb 2005
TAWAU
FEED-IN TARIFF (FIT) MECHANISM
– A mechanism that allows electricity that is produced from
indigenous RE resources to be sold to power utilities at a fixed
premium price and for specific duration governed by
Renewable Energy Act 2011 commencing 1 December 2011.
– The implementation agency is the Sustainable Energy
Development Authority (SEDA)
– The type of RE will cover as such and limited to a maximum of
30MW per site:•
•
•
•
Biogas,
Biomass,
Mini Hydro and
Solar PV
• Geothermal?
31
FEED-IN TARIFF (FIT) – ISSUES & CHALLENGES
• Financial Aspect
–
–
–
–
–
Sufficiency of RE fund for payment
Commitment of payment for whole concession from SEDA (ie ~RM300 Mill)
Other sources of fund (ie state gov contribution)
Quantum of contribution from customer in Sabah (only RM10Mill per annum)
Cash flow issue of SESB (ie timely reimbursement from SEDA)
• Administration & Management
–
–
–
–
Priority of FiT quota to the existing/REPPA signed RE
New REPPA / Migration of existing REPPA
Land Acquisition i.e. ROW
Public Awareness
• Technical Aspect
–
–
–
–
–
Power System Study
Protection Coordination Study
RE critical contribution in Sabah Generation Capacity
Metering & Billing
Reliability of RE plant
32
RE DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL UNDER FiT IN SABAH
No. Of
Proposa
l
Proposed
Capacity (MW)
Potential COD
13
211.5++
2014
2 Biogas
1
2
2013
3 Solar
12
90.05
2013
N
Type of RE
o
1 Biomass
4
Municipal
Waste
1
TBA
TBA
5
Hydro
3
30++
2015
20
333.55++
GRAND TOTAL
33
RE Policy & Action Plan: Targets
25,000
National Cumulative RE Installed Capacity (& Ratio to Peak Demand)
2050
Sabah Projected Cumulative
GW (& Ratio to Peak Demand)
RE11.5
Capacity
2030
20,000
452.75MW
3.5 GW
39.3%
500
15,000
300
MW
200
100
Sabah will play a vital
role in achieving
National RE Target
392.75MW
36.6%
400
171.75MW
17.2%
41.5MW
4.5%
2030:
4,000 MW (17%)
10,000
2012
2013
2014
2015
2020:
2,080 MW (11%)
1090%
increase of BAU
2015:
985 MW (6%)
5,000
2050:
21.4 GW (73%)
RE (RE Policy & Action Plan)
RE (Business as Usual)
BAU 2050: < 2,000 MW
Year
Source: Ministry of Energy, Green Technology and Water, Energy Commission
2050
2049
2048
2047
2046
2045
2044
2043
2042
2041
2040
2039
2038
2037
2036
2035
2034
2033
2032
2031
2030
2029
2028
2027
2026
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
-
34
DEMAND SIDE MANAGEMENT
35
Planning Way Forward -Lowering Load Forecast with Scenario DSM/EE
2500
2000
1500
1000
LoadForecast
Demand
Forecast (MW)
Load
(MW)
10%
reduceSide
(MW)
Demand
Management By 10%
15%
reduceSide
(MW)
Demand
Management t by 15%
500
2012
2023 2024
2024 2025
2025 2026
2026 2027
2027
20122013
2013 2014
2014 2015
2015 2016
2016 2017
2017 2018
2018 2019
2019 2020
2020 2021
2021 2022
2022 2023
Load
Forecast
918 1,001 1,074 1,152 1,223 1,312 1,387 1,476 1,546 1,634 1,714 1,808 1,887 1,978 2,059 2,162
(MW)
Reduce Load
Forecast
851 928 993 1063 1125 1205 1269 1346 1403 1477 1541 1618 1678 1748 1806 1883
10% reduce
(MW)
Reduce Load
Forecast
848 921 982 1046 1101 1172 1226 1290 1333 1389 1432 1483 1514 1549 1565 1594
15% reduce
(MW)
2028 2029
2029 2030
2030
2028
2,257 2,369 2,474
1950 2032 2103
1604 1618 1610
36
Planning Way Forward -Lowering Load Forecast with Scenario DSM/EE
2500
2000
1500
1000
• Going for the Conventional Development to meet Load Demand is
not sustainable.
• Consumers can play a roll in ensuring the sustainability of supply
through Demand Side Management. (DSM)
• Energy Efficient is part of the DSM, which will reduced the Load
LoadForecast
Demand
Forecast (MW)
Load
(MW)
Demand, hence reduced the capital investment
required for
10%
reduceSide
(MW)
Demand
Management By 10%
Sabah’s Generation Plant Up.
15%
reduceSide
(MW)
Demand
Management t by 15%
500
2012
2023 2024
2024 2025
2025 2026
2026 2027
2027
20122013
2013 2014
2014 2015
2015 2016
2016 2017
2017 2018
2018 2019
2019 2020
2020 2021
2021 2022
2022 2023
Load
Forecast
918 1,001 1,074 1,152 1,223 1,312 1,387 1,476 1,546 1,634 1,714 1,808 1,887 1,978 2,059 2,162
(MW)
Reduce Load
Forecast
851 928 993 1063 1125 1205 1269 1346 1403 1477 1541 1618 1678 1748 1806 1883
10% reduce
(MW)
Reduce Load
Forecast
848 921 982 1046 1101 1172 1226 1290 1333 1389 1432 1483 1514 1549 1565 1594
15% reduce
(MW)
2028 2029
2029 2030
2030
2028
2,257 2,369 2,474
1950 2032 2103
1604 1618 1610
37
Planning Way Forward -Lowering Load Forecast with Scenario DSM/EE
•Another Method For Energy Conservation Is To Do Of Peak Consumption (Peak
System
Profile
Shifting)
•This Will Balance The Daily Base And Peak Load
750
FILL THE DIP
BY SHIFTING
THE LOAD
Demand (MW)
650
Typical Daily
Load Profile
550
REDUCE PEAK DEMAND
450
350
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
Time (Hr)
Promote Demand Side Management with Load Shifting (Peak / Off Peak)
38
ENERGY EFFICIENCY PROGRAMMES IN
SABAH
39
Energy Efficiency Program in Sabah
• Sabah Energy Efficiency Comm. (comprising of industrial players,
local authorities and other stakeholders)
• EE program with participation from stakeholders
• Demo project - gov building & private building (via AAIBE fund)
• Future Outlook - National Energy Efficiency Master Plan (NEEMP)
Based on NKEA/EPP 9: Energy Efficiency, promotion of
energy efficiency via 5 key initiatives:





Leadership by example
Promotion of EE appliances
Cogeneration
Building insulation
Transport efficiency
CONCLUSION
41
Conclusion
• For
sustainable
development
and
operation, electricity tariff rationalisation + gov fuel
subsidy must continue
• Renewable energy development leveraging
Sabah abundant resources (FIT and hydro
potentials)
• Demand side management via energy efficiency
42
THANK YOU
PRACTICE ENERGY EFFICIENCY,
AN ACT OF RESPONSIBLE CONSUMERISM
43
Plant
ARLT
Stratavest
Serudong
SPC
Average AF
CY 2009
57.89%
88.12%
76.94%
89.63%
CY 2010
47.98%
72.60%
93.37%
78.24%
CY 2011
49.45%
49.33%
88.22%
66.31%
ISSUES AND CHALLENGES
Fuel price volatility
Coal Prices in US Dollars/tonne
160.00
Northwest Europe marker price
Japan steam coal import cif price
US Central Appalachian coal spot price index
globalCoal RB Index (South Africa)
globalCoal NEWC Index (Australia)
JPU
Platts Markers K1 (5900 GAR) (Indon)
Platts Markers K2 (5000 GAR) (Indon)
140.00
USD/tonne
120.00
100.00
“Oil prices hit record peaks above 126
dollars” AFP, May 2008
80.00
60.00
Key Crude Oil Spot Prices in US Dollars/barrel
120.00
40.00
20.00
Brent
West Texas Intermediate (WTI)
Dubai
100.00
0.00
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
Natural Gas Prices in US Dollars/mmbtu
12.00
USD/mmbtu
10.00
USA Henry Hub
LNG Japan
European Union cif
Canada
80.00
USD/barrel
1987
60.00
40.00
20.00
8.00
0.00
1976
6.00
1980
1984
1988
1992
4.00
2.00
0.00
1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007, International Energy Agency, Platts Report & TNB Fuel
1996
2000
2004
2008
Trend & Outlook
Fuel Price Historical & Projections in the US
Source:
EIA)
Source: EIA – US
Energy
Price
• EIA fuel cost projections
indicated that coal and
nuclear is going to be
stable and low in the long
run
• Coal in the US is stable
mainly due to domestic
production and high
reserve
• Nuclear fuel is still
expected to be low and
stable despite import of
uranium
• Situation is expected to be
the same for Malaysia
except for coal price
46
DEPENDANCY ON NATURAL GAS (PIPELINE SUPPLIED)
Generation Mix FY2014/2015
OIL
IPP/PRIVATE
INVESTER
6%
OIL SESB
7%
BIOMASS
4%
HYDRO SESB
HYDRO
8%
IPP/PRIVATE
INVESTER
1%
GAS SESB
11%
GAS
IPP/PRIVATE
INVESTER
63%
47
NATIONAL ENERGY POLICIES AND DEVELOPMENT PLAN
Energy Policies
National Energy
Policy (1979)
• To ensure adequate,
secure and costeffective energy
supplies using both
non-renewable and
renewable energy
sources
• To promote efficient
utilisation of energy
• To minimise negative
impacts on the
environment in the
energy supply chain
National
Depletion
Policy
(1980)
• To prolong
lifespan of
Malaysia’s oil
reserves for future
security and
stability in fuel
supply
Four Fuel
Policy
(1981)
Five Fuel
Policy
(2001)
• To pursue balance • RE as the fifth fuel
utilisation of oil,
in energy supply
gas, hydro and
mix
coal
National
Green
Technology
Policy (2009)
• Green Tech. as the
driver to accelerate the
national economy and
promote sustainable
development
8th Malaysia Plan (2001-2005)
RE as the fifth fuel
Target: 5% RE in energy mix
9th Malaysia Plan (2006-2010)
Target: 300 MW grid-connected RE in Pen. Malaysia
Target: 50 MW grid-connected RE in Sabah
10th Malaysia Plan (2011-2015)
New RE Policy and Action Plan
Target: 985 MW of RE by 2015 (~5.5% of energy mix)
RELIABILITY ISSUE OF RE PLANTS
Operational SREP Performance (FY2009 - FY2011)
Description
SREP TSH
SREP Kinabio
SREP Seguntor
SREP Kadamaian
SREP Pangapuyan
Average AF
Average AF
Average AF
Average AF
Average AF
Yearly
based on
based on
based on
based on
based on
Contractual 64,000,000
82,344,000
82,344,000
14,366,400
30,353,400
Contractua
Contractua
Contractua
Contractua
Contractua
Energy
l Energy
l Energy
l Energy
l Energy
l Energy
FY2009
64,440,980
101%
19,155,430
23%
20,738,600
25%
0
0%
0
0%
FY2010
65,232,780
102%
45,134,970
55%
47,197,700
57%
8,532,616
59%
0
0%
FY2011
52,652,130
82%
57,015,680
69%
61,457,870
75%
12,349,657
86%
5,344,018
18%
Notes:(i) Lower value of energy/AF for Seguntor and Kinabio in FY2009 & Pangapuyan in FY2011 due to plant only COD in the middle of the FY
(ii) TSH achieve more than contractual energy in FY2010 & 2009
49