Rwanda Parliamentary commission on Population and

Rwanda Parliamentary commission on Population and Development
Linkages between Population Growth, Environment, Resource consumption and Climate Change Prepared and presented by ALEX MULISA
HUYE, 19/03/2011
OUTLINE
• General context – Sustainable Development
• Population growth
• Climate Change, Environment and Natural Resources management
• The interactions and linkages: Challenges and opportunities
• What will it take for Rwanda to succeed????
CONTEXT
• More than 80% of the population derive their livelihoods directly from natural capital;
• Environmental degradation and climate change have been recognized as some of the main barriers to realizing Rwanda’s EDPRS, MDGs and VISION 2020 goals;
– 2010 national leadership retreat concluded: population –
poverty – environment nexus
• Improved management of environmental resources is increasingly regarded essential for national sustainable development;
Sustainable Development: The context of
Rwanda
Vision 2020 MDGs EDPRS
Decentralization
Socio‐Economic development Integral to
Sustainable development
4
Population issues in Rwanda
• Population pressures
• Pop. estimated at 9.3 million projected at 10.8 million in 2012 (UNFPA/ Rwanda, 2007). • population growth has been and remains high – estimated at 3.1% annually in 2002 and only declined to 2.6% in 2006 (UNFPA (2007) estimates.
• The high total fertility rate of 6.1 children per woman (according to the DHS 2005)
• Two thirds of the population is under 25, of whom 60 per cent are out of school.
5
Population issues in Rwanda
80 +
75-79
Male
70-74
Female
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
<5
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
6
Impacts of Population on Environment
• Pressure on the physical environment • Poverty ‐ population ‐ environmental resources dynamics (Clay, 1996).
• Environmental disease burden: Malaria incidence rate rose from 3.5% in 1982 to 48.16% in 2003. • population density movements. and population • Poor sanitation, hygiene related diseases, encroachment on forests and wetlands, inadequate access to infrastructure and social services etc
7
Environment/MDG linkage
Millennium Development Goals
Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
Examples of Links to the Environment
Livelihood strategies and food security of the poor
often depend directly on healthy ecosystems and the
diversity of goods and ecological services they provide.
Achieve universal primary education
Time spent collecting water and fuel-wood by children,
especially girls, can reduce time at school.
Poor women are especially exposed to indoor air
pollution and the burden of collecting water and fuelwood, and have unequal access to land and other
natural resources.
Water-related diseases such as diarrhea and cholera kill
an estimated 3 million people a year in developing
countries, the majority of which are children under the
age of five.
Indoor air pollution and carrying heavy loads of water
and fuel-wood adversely affect women’s health and
can make women less fit for childbirth and at greater
risk of complications during pregnancy.
Promote gender equality and empower women
Reduce child mortality
Improve maternal health
Combat major diseases
Up to one-fifth of the total burden of diseases in
developing may be associated with environmental risk
factors –
and preventive environmental health
measures are as important and at times more costeffective that health treatments
Ensure environmental sustainability
Current trends in environmental degradation must be
reversed in order to sustain the health and productivity
8
of the world’s ecosystem
Climate Change
Human activities are responsible for the rapidly changing conditions globally;
Presently green house gases are on the increase in the earth’s atmosphere particularly from the industrial countries;
Higher temperatures that lead to climate change;
•
•
•
Rising sea levels
Changes in precipitation patterns that lead to –
–
•
•
Floods, droughts and vector borne diseases
Climate change is predicted to become the dominant driver of Biodiversity loss by the end of the century
9
Trends: Annual Mean Temperature Between 1971 and -2007) in °C based on the
Meteorological Station At Kigali Airport (increase
of 0.9 ° C in 27 years)
22.0
21.0
20.5
20.0
19.5
19.0
2007
2005
2003
2001
1999
1997
1995
1993
1991
1989
1987
1985
1983
1981
1979
1977
1975
1973
18.5
1971
Température (°C)
21.5
Années
10
Trends: During the year
2006, the mean monthly temperature is
higher than the long-term (32 years)
Mean monthly temperatures
at Kigali-Aero in 2006
Long-term (32 years) mean temperatures
T°C
22,5
22
21,5
21
20,5
20
19,5
19
18,5
18
JAN
FEb
MAR
APR
MAY
JUNE
JUL
AUGUST
SEPT
OCT
NOV
DEC
Months
11
Floods and
landslide risk
zones
Rainfall
deficit
zone
12
Interactions of Climate change and Biodiversity ‐ pressures Collecting fuel wood inside Akagera National Park
Savannah in the Akagera National Park
(SoER, 2009)
Climate change and pressure on Biodiversity
Deforestation for charcoal leaves whole
swathes of land bare (SoER, 2009)
Climate change and food security
Crop failure in eastern province due to the 2005 drought
(SoER, 2009)
Pop. Growth a drivers of Climate change in Rwanda
Constructions at the shores of Lake Kivu in
the Western Province (SoER, 2009)
Challenges of Climate Change
• Various studies including Comprehensive Food Security and Vulnerability Analysis (CFSVA). March –
April 2006 have established linkages: • water for production, the proportion of arable land under irrigation (still very low)
• Rwanda’s agriculture is generally rain‐fed. • seasonal failures due to drought continue to be a key threat to food security
• income, ill health, exposure or vulnerability to shock and demographic factors. ENVIRONMENT AND NATURAL RESOURCES MANAGEMENT
Natural resource management and biodiversity conservation face challenges of high population growth, low levels of literacy and poverty. The effects of these are characterised by high rates of soil erosion and loss of soil fertility, flooding, deforestation and loss of biodiversity as a result of habitat destruction. Population, climate change, environment and natural resources interactions and challenges for Rwanda
Need for research on Natural disaster
preparedness to address challenges
20
Challenges of Climate Change in Africa including Rwanda
•The lack of observational climate data, particularly in Africa, is recognized as a constraint to understanding current and future climate variability (DFID, 2004).
•To address this evident gap, coordinated effort of capacity building, training, research and development should be emphasized to provide for continent‐wide monitoring
ENVIRONMENT AND NATURAL RESOURCES MANAGEMENT
Challenges & Opportunities
• Majority of population deriving livelihoods from natural resources
• Limited appreciation by other sectors of their roles in environmental management
• Environment increasingly recognised as a pillar for sustainable development in Rwanda (Vision 2020, EDPRS), • Regional integration (EAC, COMESA) is an opportunity for sound management of shared ecosystems
• Existence of a wide range of stakeholders involved in environmental management ( Donor community, NGOs, Private Sector, decentralised government, public and private institutions…)
How will Rwanda make it?
• Population, Environment and Natural resources and climate change considered cross cutting issues in national planning (EDPRS) and therefore development dialogue;
• The Environment Sector Strategic plan will contribute to achievement of EDPRS, MDGs (especially MDGs 1 & 7) and VISION 2020 goals.
• It therefore calls for integrated approaches with ENR‐
dependant sectors as key advocates of the sustainability agenda. Effective approaches will be ensured through…..
• Responses: Planning and investment in Population growth control and management measures ‐ reproductive health services and family planning, resettlement planning, access to information and education • Practical & continuous stakeholder engagement at different levels ; • Tailored & demand‐driven capacity building support; develop incentives for capacity deployment & retention’; • Emphasis on tangible results & evidence‐based reporting. By implication, developing local & national ENV. data infrastructure will be a key priority. Immediate next steps
• Education for skills and technology development;
• Intensify stakeholder collaboration – We have to work together!
– Focused financing ‐ FONERWA
• Focused vision – Refine measurement tools
Policy response – EDPRS targets and investments
•
•
•
Key of the EDPRS targets that have implications on PHE issues in Rwanda include: Accelerating growth and poverty reduction – Real GDP rise from 6.5% to 8.1%; export growth 10% to 15%;
Raising agricultural productivity and ensuring food security. The specific targets in this respect include:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Increasing area protected from soil erosion from 40% to 100%; Increasing arable land under irrigation from 15,000 Ha to 24,000 Ha;
Increasing use of mineral fertilizers from 11% to 40%;
Increasing number of rural households with livestock from 71% to 85%. This is critical not only for income generation but to increase access to organic manure. Develop skills for a knowledge‐based society through ICT;
Promoting science, technology and innovation for economic growth;
manufacturing and services sectors for sustainable growth; Managing the environment and climate change and ensuring optimal utilisation of natural resources, water resources to support irrigation projects;
Building economic infrastructure including rural markets and feeder roads;
Improving health and slowing down population growth. Unsustainable population growth has been recognised as a key limitation of economic growth and poverty reduction. Can we in Rwanda cope with Climate change? Potential areas of research
Rainwater harvesting in Rubavu District. Such technologies
help increase access to potable water (SoER, 2009)
CHALLENGES & OPPORTUNITES: SUSTAINABLE LAND MANAGEMENT
Achievements: INNOVATIVE SOLUTIONS
Potential for Socio‐Economic growth