Risk governance of carbon dioxide capture and storage (RICCS)

Risk governance of carbon dioxide capture and storage
(RICCS)
FICCA midway seminar, Helsinki, 16 April 2013
Janne I. Hukkinen, University of Helsinki
Arho Toikka, University of Helsinki
Farid Karimi, University of Helsinki
Mika Järvinen, Aalto University
Sanni Eloneva, Aalto University
Laura Kainiemi, Aalto University
Objective
To enhance the reliability, adaptiveness and
acceptability of CCS technologies by engaging
the general public, CCS technology developers
and decision-makers into an early stage
appraisal of risks related to further development
of CCS
Background: Incertitude (risk, uncertainty,
ambiguity and ignorance)
(Stirling and Gee 2002)
Knowledge about
likelihoods
Some basis for
probabilities
No basis for
probabilities
Knowledge about outcomes
Well defined
Poorly defined
RISK
AMBIGUITY
Transport safety
GMOs & environment
UNCERTAINTY
IGNORANCE
Avian flu
CCS
Background: Relationship between science and
precaution
(Stirling and Gee 2002)
SCIENTIFIC
DISCIPLINE
Systematic
Skeptical
Peer-reviewed
Independent
Accountable
Learning
RISK-BASED
APPROACH
CORNUCOPIAN
PRECAUTIONARY
APPROACH
APOCALYPTIC
BREADTH OF ANALYTICAL SCOPE
Compare all alternatives / complete
attention to all effects / account for pros
and cons / reverse burden of persuasion
/ acknowledge surprise / include many
perspectives / take broad social view /
research and monitoring
Research questions
1. What are the risks related to CCS technologies
as perceived by the relevant stakeholder groups?
2. Which stages in the development of CCS
technologies and their regulation are likely to
benefit from knowledge obtained in
participatory pre-assessment of risks?
3. What are the elements of an early warning
monitoring system of CCS technologies that
prepares for future contingencies and is based
on stakeholder knowledge?
Methods
1.
2.
3.
Interviews with technology developers, policymakers, environmental
experts and people living adjacent to proposed CCS sites provide an
overview of risk perceptions
Observation of technology and legislative development reveals possible
leverage points where pre-assessment of environmental and social risks
could become an integrated part of CCS development
Decision maker panels enables selected stakeholders to deliberate upon
possibilities to observe CCS related future contingencies and further
expose critical points in knowledge integration
Methods: Knowledge networking in workshops
Material: cases
• Case 1—Pori, Finland: Fortum and Teollisuuden Voima were
planning to retro-fit a condensing power plant with CCS
equipment—cancelled the project in 2010 citing technical and
economic reasons
• Case 2—Mineral carbonation: Method for CO2 storage based on
steelmaking slag carbonation, designed in Finland—scale-up of
process is studied
• Case 3—Statoil in Norway: Mongstad pilot plant; Sleipner; Snøvit
• Case 4—Vattenfall in Sweden/Germany: Vattenfall built a pilot
plant to demonstrate Oxyfuel technology for CCS—legislative issues
lead the company to cancel the plant
• Case 5—Barendrecht, Netherlands: Shell was planning a CCS
facility in Barendrecht on the outskirts of Rotterdam—cancelled
due to public opposition in November 2010
Preliminary results:
Map of risk perceptions based on stakeholder
knowledge
Preliminary results:
Dissemination
•
•
•
•
Kainiemi, L., Toikka, A. & Järvinen, M., Stakeholder perceptions on carbon
capture and storage technologies in Finland- economic, technological,
political and societal uncertainties. Energy Procedia, forthcoming 2013.
Toikka, A., Kainiemi, L., Hukkinen, J., Energy Regime Change and Mental
Models of Institutions: Understanding Risk Governance in Carbon Capture
and Storage. To be presented at European Sociological Association
Conference 2013, to be submitted 2013
Karimi, Toikka & Hukkinen, A comparative socio-cultural analysis of risk
perception of carbon capture and storage in Finland, the Netherlands, UK
and Poland: Interaction between national culture and information in CCS
acceptance. To be presented at the 22nd annual Society for Risk Analysis
conference 2013.
Mikkonen, Reija, Carbon Capture and Sequestration – The portrayal of
risks in newspaper media in Finland and Norway. Master’s Thesis,
University of Helsinki.
Literature
•
•
•
•
Perrow, Charles (1984/1999) Normal Accidents
Slovic, Paul (1987) The Perception of Risk
Renn, O. (2008) Risk Governance. Earthscan.
Stirling A and D Gee 2002. Science, precaution, and practice. Public Health Reports 117: 521-533.