TABLE OF CONTENTS
I.
INTRODUCTION ..............................................................................................................................2
II. DEMAND...........................................................................................................................................4
II.1. Peak Load and Energy Consumption of Turkish Electricity System Between 1996-2005 ..................4
II.2. Analysis of Daily Electricity Consumption for the Year 2004.............................................................5
II.3. Load Duration Curves for Years of 2004 and 2005 .............................................................................9
II.4 Demand Forecasts..................................................................................................................................9
III. ANNUAL GENERATION PROGRAMS AND REALIZATION FOR YEARS 2004-2005.........16
III.1. Year 2004 ..........................................................................................................................................16
III.2. Year 2005 ..........................................................................................................................................17
IV. TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM.....................................................................19
IV.1. Transmission System ........................................................................................................................19
IV.2. Distribution System...........................................................................................................................20
IV.3. System Losses ...................................................................................................................................21
V. ASSUMPTIONS USED FOR THE GENERATION CAPACITY PROJECTION .........................22
V.1. Demand ..............................................................................................................................................22
V.2. Existing Generating System ...............................................................................................................22
V.3. Capacities Under Construction, Capacities Granted by Licence and New Additional Capacities.....23
VI. STUDY RESULTS..........................................................................................................................33
VI.I. Case I .................................................................................................................................................33
VI.2. Case II ...............................................................................................................................................48
VII. THE REVIEW OF THE GENERATION CAPACITY PROJECTION STUDY REGARDING
SECURITY OF SUPPLY ..........................................................................................................................63
VIII. ANNEXES.......................................................................................................................................65
Abbreviations .............................................................................................................................................81
1
I.
INTRODUCTION
This report has been prepared by Turkish Electricity Transmission Corporation (TEİAŞ)
according to the authorization on preparing 10-year Generation Capacity Projection and
submitting for approval of Energy Market Regulatory Authority (EPDK) within the framework of
the Electricity Market Law (EPK) No: 4628 and the Grid Code to guide the market participants by
using demand projections estimated by electricity distribution companies. Before the enactment of
the Electricity Market Law No:4628, former Turkish Electricity Generation-Transmission
Corporation was preparing Electricity Generation-Transmission Plan.
Electricity demand forecasts to be used for Generation Capacity Projection should be
estimated by distribution companies. But, since the demand projections have not been completed
yet by distribution companies, according to the temporary article of the Grid Code, demand series
which are carried out by Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources (ETKB)adjusted with constant
yearly average increase rate are used in this study.
The study period for the Generation Capacity Projection is 10 years and it covers from
2006 to 2015. Supply-Demand Balance in terms of capacity and energy and based on two demand
series is calculated by considering existing power plants, projects which are currently under
construction and new projects granted by licence by end of December 2005. Related data to the
average and firm values for the next 10 years are obtained from Electricity Generation
Corporation (EÜAŞ), Turkish Electricity Trade and Contracting Corporation (TETAŞ) and
General Directorate of State Hydraulic Works (DSİ) for existing and under construction thermal
power plants, and hydro power plants. Data for new projects granted by licence by end of
December 2005 are get from EPDK and these data have been updated according to “Progress
Report of May 2006” published by EPDK. While calculating generation capacities, average
generating values of hydo power plants under normal hydrologic conditions and firm generating
values of hydro power plants under dry hydro conditions are considered separately and SupplyDemand Balances together with energy reserves are calculated for both demand series, then
results are submitted in this report as Case I and Case II.
In the report, it is investigated how to meet both demand series according to:
• Existing plants,
• Existing plants and under construction plants
• Existing plants- under construction plants and licensed plants as of December 2005 and
expected to operate on planned dates and updated in accordance with the May 2006
Progress Reports.
• Existing plants-under construction plants-licensed plants which are expected to be in
service on planned dates and new additional capacities.
as of the end of 2005 for Turkish Electricity System.
New additional capacities classified as Hydro, Thermal and Renewables are quoted from
the Generation Expansion Planning Report carried out by TEİAŞ on behalf of ETKB and
published on the official web site of TEİAŞ in November 2004.
In this capacity projection study covering the period 2006-2015, it is analyzed how to meet
the demand safely, i.e. with a suitable reserve, by taking into account existing plants, under
construction plants, licenced projects which are expected to be in service on planned date and new
additional capacity. In the study, generating amounts of these power plants are considered as
Average and Firm generating capacities.
2
In this study, the compensation of demand according to average and firm generating
amounts is calculated by taking into account maintenance, being out of service, hydrological
conditions and rehabilitation of power plants in the system. While calculating generating capacity
amount it is also assumed that there will be no deficit on fuel supply.
In this report, assumptions in 2006-2015 Capacity Projection Study are the most
important data which require to be examined before the results of the study and necessitate
the results to be evaluated accordingly.
3
II.
DEMAND
In this section, electricity consumption development for the last decade (1996-2005), peak
load development in the same period, typical daily load curves for the year 2004, comparison of
actual consumption values with forecasts and demand projections carried out by ETKB for the
future (2006-2015) are submitted.
According to the Electricity Market Law No: 4628 and the Grid Code, since distribution
companies have not prepared the demand projections although they are requested to prepare on a
certain format; untill completion of this studies, the demand series prepared by ETKB are being
used in this study as done before. But these demand series are adjusted as to grow 8.4% for
Scenario 1 and 6.3% for Scenario 2 annually by considering actual values for the year 2005 and
by the programmed values for the year 2006.
II.1. Peak Load and Energy Consumption of Turkish Electricity System Between 1996-2005
Gross electricity consumption (equal to gross generation + import – export) has reached to
150.0 TWh by annual increase of 6.3% for the year 2004, and to 160.8 TWh by annual increase of
7.2%. Net consumption is 121.1 TWh for the year 2004 and 129.5 TWh for 2005.
Table 1 and Figure 1 show instentaneous peak load and electricity consumption of Turkish
Interconnected Electricity system by years. The peak load and the minimum load are 23485 MW
and 8888 MW respectively. The same values are 25174 MW and 14514 MW for the year 2005.
While the ratio of minimum load to peak load is 38% in 2004 and it is 58% for 2005.
Table 1 : Peak Load and Electricity Consumption of Turkish Electricity System Between
1996 – 2005
PEAK LOAD
(MW)
INCREASE
(%)
ELECTRICITY
CONSUMPTION
(GWh)
INCREASE
(%)
1996
15231
7,5
94789
10,8
1997
16926
11,1
105517
11,3
1998
17799
5,2
114023
8,1
1999
18938
6,4
118485
3,9
2000
19390
2,4
128276
8,3
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
19612
21006
21729
23485
25174
1,1
7,1
3,4
8,1
7,2
126871
132553
141151
150018
160806
-1,1
4,5
6,5
6,3
7,2
Figure 1 : Peak Load and Electricity Consumption of Turkish Electricity System Between
1996 – 2005
400000
65000
60000
350000
55000
50000
300000
45000
MW
35000
200000
30000
25000
GWh
250000
40000
150000
20000
100000
15000
10000
50000
5000
0
0
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
CONSUMPTION (GWh)
SCENERIO I ENERGY DEMAND
SCENERIO II ENERGY DEMAND
PEAK LOAD (MW)
SCENERIO I PEAK LOAD
SCENERIO II PEAK LOAD
II.2. Analysis of Daily Electricity Consumption for the Year 2004
Daily load curves of the maximum and minimum electricity consumption days in 2004,
are on Figure 2 and Figure 3, daily load curves for third Wednesday of each month are on Figure
4. The peak load is 23199 MW on the maximum consumption day and 15513 MW on the
minimum consumption day.
MW
Figure 2 : Loading order of power plants regarding type of primary energy resources on
the maximum consumption day of the year 2004 (December 16, 2004)
25000
24000
23000
22000
21000
20000
19000
18000
17000
16000
15000
14000
13000
12000
11000
10000
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
E XP O R T
IM P O R T
HYDRO
NATURAL G AS
LIQ U ID F U E L
HARD COAL
İIM P O R T E D C O A L
LIG N IT E
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
5
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
Figure 3 : Loading order of power plants regarding type of primary energy resources on
the minimum consumption day of the year 2004
20000
19000
18000
17000
16000
15000
14000
13000
12000
EXPORT
MW
11000
10000
IMPORT
HYDRO
9000
8000
7000
6000
NATURAL GAS
5000
4000
3000
2000
HARD COAL
1000
LIQUID FUEL
İIMPORTED COAL
LIGNITE
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
6
Figure 4 : Daily Load Curves of Third Wednesday of Each Month
February 18, 2004
MW
MW
January 21, 2004
25000
24000
23000
22000
21000
20000
19000
18000
17000
16000
15000
14000
13000
12000
11000
1
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
25000
24000
23000
22000
21000
20000
19000
18000
17000
16000
15000
14000
13000
12000
11000
1
23
:İ
PEAK 21275.7 MW
CONSUMPTION : 432680 MWh
3
5
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
1
3
5
MW
MW
7
9
19
21
23
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
15
17
19
21
23
June 16, 2004
25000
24000
23000
22000
21000
20000
19000
18000
17000
16000
15000
14000
13000
12000
11000
5
17
PEAK : 19827.8 MW
May 26, 2004
3
15
İ
PEAK :
MW
1
13
25000
24000
23000
22000
21000
20000
19000
18000
17000
16000
15000
14000
13000
12000
11000
23
İ
20539.6
PEAK : 18661.0 MW
11
April 21, 2004
MW
MW
March 17, 2004
3
9
PEAK : 21006.0 MW
25000
24000
23000
22000
21000
20000
19000
18000
17000
16000
15000
14000
13000
12000
11000
1
7
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25000
24000
23000
22000
21000
20000
19000
18000
17000
16000
15000
14000
13000
12000
11000
1
3
5
7
9
11
PEAK : 19915.0 MW
7
13
21 TEMMUZ 2004
25000
24000
23000
22000
21000
20000
19000
18000
17000
16000
15000
14000
13000
12000
11000
MW
MW
July 21, 2004
1
3 5
7 9 11 13
ANİ PUANT 20 791 5 MW
15 17
19 21
1 3
5 7
9
00
11
13 15 17
19 21
MW
1
7
9
PEAK : 20265.8 MW
3
5
7
9
11 13 15 17
19 21 23
İ
PEAK : 19217.7 MW
December 15, 2004
MW
5
20 EKİM 2004
25000
24000
23000
22000
21000
20000
19000
18000
17000
16000
15000
14000
13000
12000
11000
23
25000
24000
23000
22000
21000
20000
19000
18000
17000
16000
15000
14000
13000
12000
11000
10000
3
23
October 20, 2004
Ü
PEAK : 20216.5 MW
November 17, 2004
1
17 19 21
PEAK : 20850.3 MW
MW
MW
25000
24000
23000
22000
21000
20000
19000
18000
17000
16000
15000
14000
13000
12000
11000
1 3
5 7 9 11 13 15
23
PEAK : 20791.5 MW
September 15, 2004
5
August
18, 20042004
18 AĞUSTOS
25000
24000
23000
22000
21000
20000
19000
18000
17000
16000
15000
14000
13000
12000
11000
11 13 15
17 19 21
25000
24000
23000
22000
21000
20000
19000
18000
17000
16000
15000
14000
13000
12000
11000
1
23
3
5
7
9
PEAK : 23485.3 MW
8
11
13 15 17 19 21 23
II.3. Load Duration Curves for Years of 2004 and 2005
Figure 5 : Load Duration Curve for the year 2004
Figure 6 : Load Duration Curve for the year 2005
25000
20000
MW
15000
10000
5000
0
1
731
1461
2191
2921
3651
4381
5111
5841
6571
7301
8031
hour
II.4 Demand Forecasts
In the Generation Capacity projection study, ETKB’s two demand forecasts are being used
but by adjusting these demand series as to grow 8.4% for Scenario 1 and 6.3% for Scenario 2
annually by considering actual values for the year 2005 and by the programmed values for the
year 2006, new demand series are obtained.
Comparison of former demand forecasts carried out by ETKB with realized values is
submitted on Table 2 and Table 31.
1
The Study Report on Long-Term Electricity Demand of turkey, ETKB-APKK, 2004
9
Table 2 : Comparison of Former Demand Forecasts with Realized Values
TWh
Development Rate (%)
Target
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
7.5
4.2
4.3
4.7
4.9
5.1
4.6
6.4
5.0
0.9
5.8
5.2
5.1
4.7
4.7
4.2
4.5
4.0
3.1
3.1
6.0
4.8
4.0
5.1
Realization
-2.4
4.9
306.0
5.0
6.7
4.2
7.0
9.5
2.1
0.3
9.3
0.9
6.0
8.0
-5.5
7.2
7.0
7.5
3.1
-4.7
7.4
-7.5
7.9
5.8
Electricity
Consumption
24.6
26.3
28.3
29.6
33.3
36.4
40.5
44.9
48.4
52.6
56.8
60.5
67.2
73.4
77.8
85.5
94.8
105.5
114.0
118.5
128.3
126.9
132.3
140.9
Policies
1985
35.9
40.5
45.2
50.5
56.4
62.0
68.0
74.6
81.8
89.6
98.3
106.9
116.3
126.5
137.5
149.5
1987
51.6
57.9
65.0
71.7
79.0
87.2
96.1
105.9
115.6
126.8
138.9
152.3
166.8
177.0
189.3
202.5
1988/1
1988/2
57.9
64.9
71.9
79.2
87.3
96.1
105.9
115.6
126.8
138.9
152.3
166.8
177.0
189.3
202.5
55.5
61.8
68.2
75.3
83.1
91.8
101.2
110.6
120.6
131.6
143.5
156.5
165.3
178.1
191.9
PROJECTIONS
th
5 Energy
Congress
1990
1990/2 1993
52.6
56.5
68.2
75.3
83.1
91.8
101.2
110.6
120.6
131.6
143.5
156.5
168.0
180.2
193.4
52.6
56.8
68.2
75.3
83.1
91.8
93.0
100.8
109.3
118.5
128.4
139.3
150.8
163.2
176.7
71.7
80.4
88.4
96.8
106.0
116.1
127.2
139.3
150.7
163.2
176.7
6th Energy
Congress
1994
81.0
87.2
94.6
102.5
111.1
120.3
130.4
140.9
151.7
163.4
1996
2000
105.3
113.8
123.7
134.3
146.2
158.0
170.8
118.5
126.8
138.8
151.4
165.2
2002/1
2002/2
128.3
127.3
133.4
151.5
128.3
126.9
132.3
142.5
Table 3 : Deviation Ratio of Demand Forecasts from Realization (%)
PROJECTIONS
th
Policies
1985
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
-1.4
0.0
0.7
4.3
7.2
9.2
12.4
11.0
11.4
15.2
15.0
12.8
10.2
11.0
16.0
16.6
1987
6.6
10.1
14.4
18.5
17.6
18.8
23.5
23.9
21.9
20.2
21.8
28.5
30.0
39.5
43.1
43.7
1988/1
10.1
14.3
18.8
17.9
18.9
23.5
23.9
21.9
20.2
21.8
28.5
30.0
39.5
43.1
43.7
1988/2
5.5
8.8
12.7
12.1
13.2
18.0
18.4
16.7
14.3
15.4
21.1
22.0
30.3
34.6
36.2
5 Energy
Congress 1990
1990/2
0.0
-0.5
12.7
12.1
13.2
18.0
18.4
16.7
14.3
15.4
21.1
22.0
32.4
36.2
37.3
0.0
0.0
12.7
12.1
13.2
18.0
8.8
6.3
3.6
3.9
8.4
8.6
18.8
23.4
25.4
11
1993
-2.3
3.3
3.4
2.1
0.5
1.8
7.3
8.6
18.8
23.4
25.4
6th Energy
Congress 1994
4.1
2.0
-0.2
-2.8
-2.5
1.5
1.6
11.0
14.7
16.0
1996
-0.2
-0.2
4.4
4.7
15.2
19.4
21.2
2000
0.0
-1.2
9.4
14.4
17.2
2002/1
2002/2
0.0
0.3
0.8
7.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.1
The realization ratio of forecasts are closely correlated to realization ratio of development
growth rate. When the GDP growth rates used for the demand forecast studies are compared to
realized values, except extraordinary crisis years, the deviation between them is calculated around
10% and -5%
When input values are closer to real values, realization of forecasts will be closer to
forecasts for the short-term and mid-term, but deviations will be larger for the longer term paralel
to used data.
Demand projections carried out by ETKB are based on various scenarios and sensitivity
analysis. Two of these projections are: Scenario 1 which is calculated by State Planning
Organization (DPT) and based on the contribution to GDP by agriculture, mining, manufacturing,
energy, construction, transportation and other service sectors upto 2020 and thus GDP amount
composed of these sector’s total, and Scenario 2 established to show the sensitivity of changes on
the sub sectors of manufacturing which is sub component of GDP. Generation Capacity Projection
is prepared by taking into account these two scenarios.
The development of main inputs used for demand forecasts is assumed as follows. GDP
amount and the detail of subsectors are the same for Scenario 1 and Scenario 2, but the effect of
sub sectors’ different development on electricity demand projections is being investigated in
Scenario 2.
It is considered the development of population from 67.5 Million in 2000 to 73 Million in
2005 by increasing 1.6%, to 78.5 Million in 2010 by increasing 1.4% for the period 2005-2010, to
83.3 Million in 2015 by increaisng 1.2% for the period 2010-2015 and to 87.8 Million in 2020 by
increasing 1% for the period 2015-2020.
What follows are the development rate, Gross Domestic Product and population growth
rate projections estimated by DPT(State Planning Organization) in 2004:
Period
2000-2005
2005-2010
2010-2015
2015-2020
Development Rate
(%)
3.1
5.5
6.4
6.4
Population Growth Rate
(%)
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
Reference : The Study Report on Long-term Electricity Demand of Turkey, ETKB
According to these development rates, the development structure of GDP by sectors is
summarized below.
Sectoral Structure of GDP (% share)
2000
2005
2010
Agriculture
13.4
11.9
10.6
Construction
5.0
4.2
4.9
Mining
1.4
1.0
0.8
Manufacturing
23.8
24.6
24.1
Energy
3.2
3.5
3.8
Services
53.2
54.8
55.8
TOTAL
100.0
100.0 100.0
2015
9.4
5.5
0.7
23.8
4.0
56.6
100.0
2020
8.4
5.5
0.6
23.6
4.3
57.6
100.0
Reference : The Study Report on Long-term Electricity Demand of Turkey, ETKB
According to the table above, while the contribution of agriculture and mining sectors to
GDP is ecpected to decrease in time, the contribution of manufacturing sector is expected to
increase in the first 5-year period but to decrease slowly in the latter periods. In the long term, the
shares of energy and construction sectors will increase, but the greatest increase is expected in
service sector.
Demand projection series Scenario 1 (High) and Scenario 2 (Low) together with annual
increase rates are Table 4, Figure 7 and Table 5, Figure 8 respectively.
Peak load and energy demand values of the year 2006 are not used from the MAED Model
result, these values come from the annual program. So these values are the same on both demand
series.
It is assumed that the ratio of minimum load to peak load will be around 40% as for past
years, in other words it is expected that the characteristics of the load curve will remain similar.
Demand series are adjusted by reflecting average annual increase rate to be 8.4% for
Scenario 1 and 6.3% for Scenario 2 starting from the year 2007.
Demand series are for total Turkish Electricity System and they are gross values.
Transmission and Distribution losses and internal consumptions of plants are included in this
gross demand. Further, embedded generation (connected to the distribution system) and the
generation of plants which are not subject to Load Dispatching instructions are included too.
13
Table 4 : Demand Forecast (Scenario 1, Adjusted High Scenario)
PEAK LOAD
ENERGY DEMAND
YEAR
MW
Increase
(%)
GWh
Increase
(%)
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
27500
29810
32314
35028
37971
41160
44618
48366
52428
8.4
8.4
8.4
8.4
8.4
8.4
8.4
8.4
171430
185830
201440
218361
236703
256586
278139
301503
326829
8.4
8.4
8.4
8.4
8.4
8.4
8.4
8.4
2015
56832
8.4
354283
8.4
Figure 7 : Demand Forecast (Scenario 1, Adjusted High Scenario)
400000
60000
350000
50000
300000
40000
200000
30000
150000
20000
100000
10000
50000
0
0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
PEAK LOAD
2012
2013
ENERGY DEMAND
14
2014
2015
GWh
MW
250000
Table 5 : Demand Forecast (Scenario 2, Adjusted Low Scenario)
PEAK LOAD
ENERGY DEMAND
YEAR
MW
Increase
(%)
GWh
Increase
(%)
2006
27500
-
171430
-
2007
29233
6.3
182230
6.3
2008
31074
6.3
193711
6.3
2009
33032
6.3
205914
6.3
2010
35113
6.3
218887
6.3
2011
37325
6.3
232677
6.3
2012
39676
6.3
247335
6.3
2013
42176
6.3
262918
6.3
2014
44833
6.3
279481
6.3
2015
47658
6.3
297089
6.3
Figure 8 : Demand Forecast (Scenario 2, Adjusted Low Scenario)
400000
60000
350000
50000
300000
40000
GWh
MW
250000
200000
30000
150000
20000
100000
10000
50000
0
0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
PEAK LOAD
2012
2013
2014
ENERGY DEMAND
15
2015
III. ANNUAL GENERATION PROGRAMS AND REALIZATION FOR
YEARS 2004-2005
III.1. Year 2004
Country’s total electricity generation of Turkey has been estimated to be around 151.9
TWh in the year 2004 and so the consumption has been estimated around 151.1 TWh. The
realization of the consumption is 150.0 TWh by the increase of 6.3% according to the previous
year. (Table 6). By the end of the year 2004 total installed capacity is 36824 MW. The breakdown
of total installed capacity by utilities is on Table 7.
Table 6 : Annual Generation Program and Realization for 2004 (GWh)
UTILITIES
57990,8
3309,4
2004
Revised
Annual
Program
60218,3
3825,6
5684,6
1295,5
5486,6
1258,9
5378,6
1288,1
3601,9
3795,4
3935,2
11930,0
13150,3
14379,5
40622,3
685,1
26790,0
93918,8
151909,6
35973,0
3611,3
24030,4
91131,5
151349,8
36645,5
2674,7
23758,2
92184,0
150698,3
328,5
404,9
463,5
152238,1
151754,7
151161,8
1140,3
1121,1
1144,3
151097,8
150633,6
150017,5
2004
Annual
Program
EÜAŞ
AFFILIATED PARTNERSHIP OF EÜAŞ
POWER PLANTS UNDER
PRIVATIZATION PROGRAM
MOBILE PLANTS
POWER PLANTS UNDER TRANSFER
OF OPERATIONAL RIGHT CONTRACT
POWER PLANTS UNDER BUILTOPERATE-TRANSFER CONTRACT
POWER PLANTS UNDER BUILTOPERATE CONTRACT
GENERATION COMPANIES
AUTOPRODUCERS
NON-EÜAŞ GENERATION
TOTAL GENERATION OF TURKEY
IMPORT
TURKEY’S GENERATION + IMPORT
EXPORT
TOTAL CONSUMPTION OF TURKEY
16
2004
Realization
58514,3
4124,3
Table 7 : Breakdown of Installed Capacity (2004)
INSTALLED
CAPACITY
UTILITIES
MW
THERMAL
HYDRO
THERMAL
POWER PLANTS UNDER PRIVATIZATION PROGRAM THERMAL
THERMAL
POWER PLANTS UNDER TRANSFER OF
OPERATIONAL RIGHT CONTRACT
HYDRO
THERMAL
MOBILE PLANTS
THERMAL
POWER PLANTS UNDER BUILT-OPERATE
CONTRACT
THERMAL
WIND
POWER PLANTS UNDER BUILT-OPERATETRANSFER CONTRACT
HYDRO
THERMAL
HYDRO
THERMAL
WIND
AUTOPRODUCERS
HYDRO
THERMAL
WIND
TOTAL INSTALLED CAPACITY
HYDRO
EÜAŞ
6960,9
10994,7
2154,0
1680,0
620,0
30,1
780,2
6101,8
1449,6
17,4
882,0
687,8
85,1
3725,3
1,5
653,5
24159,6
18,9
12645,4
TOTAL
INSTALLED
CAPACITY
MW
17955,6
2154,0
1680,0
650,1
780,2
6101,8
2349,0
772,9
4380,3
36823,9
III.2. Year 2005
In the year 2005, while the forecasted total electricity generation amount was 161.6 TWh,
the realization was 161.9 TWh by the increase of 7.5% from the previous year and the
consumption was 160.8 TWh by the increase of 7.2% while it was forecasted as 160.0 TWh.
(Table 8). By end of the year 2005, the total installed capacity is 38820 and the breakdown of this
total installed capacity is on Table 9.
The power plants connected to the system in 2005 are listed in Annex-2.
17
Table 8 : Annual Generation Program and Realization for 2004 (GWh)
2005
Annual
Program
UTILITIES
EÜAŞ
2005
Revised
Annual
Program
2005 Yılı
Realization
(Temporary)
65842
62289
61631
POWER PLANTS UNDER
PRIVATIZATION PROGRAM
4632
4963
5301
5128
6048
6531
MOBILE PLANTS
POWER PLANTS UNDER TRANSFER OF
OPERATIONAL RIGHT CONTRACT
POWER PLANTS UNDER BUILTOPERATE-TRANSFER CONTRACT
POWER PLANTS UNDER BUILTOPERATE CONTRACT
1255
990
855
4018
4183
4122
13646
13620
13895
36294
39613
41810
6327
10955
10600
24495
18313
17237
AUTOPRODUCERS
NON-EÜAŞ GENERATION
TOTAL TURKEY’S GENERATION
IMPORT
TURKEY’S GENERATION + IMPORT
EXPORT
TOTAL TURKEY’S CONSUMPTION
95795
98685
100353
161637
160974
161983
515
518
636
162152
161492
162619
2152
1950
1813
160000
159542
160806
Table 9 : Breakdown of Installed Capacity (2005)
INSTALLED
TOTAL
CAPACITY INSTALLED
(MW)
CAPACITY
UTILITIES
EÜAŞ
POWER PLANTS UNDER PRIVATIZATION PROGRAM
POWER PLANTS UNDER TRANSFER OF OPERATIONAL RIGHT
CONTRACT
MOBILE PLANTS
POWER PLANTS UNDER BUILT-OPERATE CONTRACT
POWER PLANTS UNDER BUILT-OPERATE-TRANSFER
CONTRACT
AUTOPRODUCERS
TOTAL INSTALLED CAPACITY
18
THERMAL
HYDRO
THERMAL
THERMAL
THERMAL
HYDRO
THERMAL
THERMAL
THERMAL
WIND
HYDRO
THERMAL
HYDRO
THERMAL
WIND
HYDRO
THERMAL
WIND
HYDRO
7.640.9
11.109.7
2.154.0
1.680.0
620.0
30.1
749.7
6.101.8
1.449.6
17.4
982.0
2.024.7
221.5
3.473.1
2.7
562.8
25.893.8
20.1
12.906.0
18.750.6
2.154.0
1.680.0
650.1
749.7
6.101.8
2.449.0
2.246.1
4.038.6
38.819.9
IV.
TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM
IV.1. Transmission System
Transmission system is the group of facilities starting from generation units to distribution
network and transmitting energy at the level of High Voltage (HV) and Extra High Voltage
(EHV). Components of transmission system are:
• Transmission lines and cables
• Transmission Substations and Switching Centers (switchyards not containing step down
substations and transformers)
Turkish electricity transmission system, which is composed of 380 kV EHV lines, 154 kV
HV lines, 380/154 kV Autotransformers and 154/MV step down substations, has been equipped
with the sufficient amount of serial and shunt capacitors due to their technical and economic
advantages. The transmission system has standard voltage level of 380 kV and 154 kV. Former 66
kV lines are being transformed within a determined program. Interconnection lines connecting
Turkish system to Georgia and to Armenia are at the level of 220 kV appropriate to other
countries’ system.
Turkish generation and transmission system is being managed via 7 regional dispatching
centers (Adapazarı, Çarşamba, Keban, İzmir, Gölbaşı, İkitelli and Erzurum) coordinated by the
National Dispatching Center in Ankara. Operating of the power system is being carried out by
SCADA2 and Energy Management System EMS3 software. SCADA system includes 380 kV lines
and power plants greater than 50 MW. System operator can can manage every kind of system
studies necessary for more quality, daily operating programs and system frequency control.
The existing situation of the transmission system is summarized on Table 10 and Table 11.
Table 10 : Number of Transmission Substations and Capacities by primary voltage level
(Temporary Values for 2005)
380 kV
AMOUNT
132
154 kV
66 kV and lower
CAPACITY
CAPACITY
AMOUNT
(MVA)
(MVA)
24240
899
46979
AMOUNT
57
CAPACITY
(MVA)
678
TOTAL
AMOUNT
1088
Table 11 : Length of Transmission Lines (km) (Temporary Values for 2005)
380 kV
220 kV
154 kV
66 kV
TOTAL
13976.9
84.6
31030.0
718.9
45810.4
Total cable length is 123.7 km.
2
3
Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition
Energy Management System
CAPACITY
(MVA)
71897
Transmission system is the main backbone of the electric system. These are expensive and
have long investment period. Due to their operation play a major role on country’s economy
regional development targets, load forecasts and supply resources should be determined in
advance.
IV.2. Distribution System
The total length of Turkis electricity distribution system is 842392.5 km as end of the year
2004. The breakdown of distribution line lengths by voltage level is summarized on Table 12.
Table 12 : Length of Distribution Lines (km)
33 kV
15,8 kV
10,5 kV
6,3 kV
Other
0,4 kV
TOTAL
296130.9
30914.4
5307.4
6948.4
252.3
502839.0
842392.5
Resource : TEDAŞ
The current situation of Turkish Electricity Distribution System is as end of the year 2004
outlined on Table 13.
Table 13 : Number of Distribution Substations and Capacities by primary voltage level
Secondary Voltage
Level
33 kV
15,8 kV
10,5 kV
6,3 kV
OTHER
TOTAL
Secondary Voltage
Level
15,8 kV
10,5 kV
6,3 kV
DİĞER
0,4 kV
TOTAL
AMOUNT
599
228
429
55
221959
223270
CAPACITY (MVA)
3881.2
3444.5
3266.9
205.4
55110.1
65908.1
AMOUNT
6
5
31769
31780
CAPACITY (MVA)
12.0
9.6
8669.7
8691.2
AMOUNT
7522
7522
CAPACITY (MVA)
6122.2
6122.2
AMOUNT
5
7063
7068
CAPACITY (MVA)
136.2
3110.0
3246.2
AMOUNT
9
9
CAPACITY (MVA)
81.1
81.1
AMOUNT
599
228
435
74
268313
269649
CAPACITY (MVA)
3881.2
3444.5
3278.9
432.2
73012.0
84048.8
Resource : TEDAŞ
20
IV.3. System Losses
Transmission system has been designed appropriate to European standards by considering
location of supply resources and geografical conditions and the line losses around 3% which is at
the level of international performances. (Table 14)
Table 14 : Transmission Losses
YEAR
%
GWh
2001
2.99
3374.4
2002
3.26
3440.7
2003
2.95
3330.7
2004
2.84
3422.8
2005
2.79
3594.2
Distribution system losses which are acceptable by APPA4 is listed on table 15.
Table 15 : APPA Loss Ratio
SYSTEM
LOSS
%1
% 3,5
% 2,5
%2
HV / MV Step down
MV Distribution
MV / LV Step down
LV Network and Connection
%9
TOTAL
Resource : Electric Energy Sector, WEC-TNC,2004
4
American Public Power Association
21
V.
ASSUMPTIONS USED FOR THE GENERATION CAPACITY
PROJECTION
V.1. Demand
Electricity consumption for 2006 is obtained from the annual program determined by
ETKB and TEİAŞ. Adjusted Demand Series based on annual growth rates for high and low
demand projections from Demand Forecast Studies by ETKB are used for later years.
V.2. Existing Generating System
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Power plants connected to Turkish Power System and in operation as the end of the year
2005 are considered as existing system.
Maximum generating capacity called as Project Generation and minimum generating
capacity called as Firm Generation for EÜAŞ thermal power plants are obtained from
EÜAŞ.
Nominal generating capacity called as Project Generation and minimum generating
capacity called as Firm Generation for EÜAŞ hydro power plants are obtained from EÜAŞ.
Project Generation and Firm Generation amounts of thermal and hydro power plants
owned by affiliated partnerships and within the scope of privatization program are obtained
from EÜAŞ.
Project Generation and Firm Generation amounts of Autoproducer power plants are
obtained from their licences and from the owner company via inquiries collected and these
generation amounts are accepted as to remain at the same level for the next 10-year period.
Generating capacity amounts indicated on licences are obtained from EPDK.
Generating capacity amounts of power plants under BO contract for the future ten-year
period are the energy sale amounts indicated on their contracts and obtained from TETAŞ.
Generating capacity amounts of power plants under BOT and TOR contract for the future
10-year period are the energy sale amounts indicated on their contracts and obtained from
TETAŞ.
Total Firm Generation capacity is 31300 GWh for EÜAŞ hydro power plants and 36000
GWh for all hydro power plants. These amounts are determined after discussions between
related utilities under the coordination of ETKB and they are assumed to remain at the same
level for the next 10-year period.
The contracted generation amounts of Mobile Plants (750 MW in total) are used as
Generating Capacity Amount for mobile plants and these amounts are used till the end of
their contracts with EÜAŞ. Due to expiration of mobile power plant contracts with EÜAŞ,
some in 2007 and the rest in 2009, the total generating capacity will decrease in the amount
of 5.4 TWh,The total installed capacity of Mobile power plants is 750 MW and in operation
as end of the year 2005, will decrease 27.9 MW in 2006, 187.4 MW in 2007, 271.8 MW in
2008 and 262.6 MW in 2009 due to expiry of their contracts. The corresponding generation
amounts by year will be decreased from the total generation capacity.
Firm and Project Generation amounts of power plants granted by licence are obtained from
EPDK and assumed to remain at the same level for the next 10-year period.
Firm and Project generation capacity amounts of natural gas fired power plants owned by
EÜAŞ and its affiliated partnerships are given by EÜAŞ by assuming there will be no
constraint on natural gas supply during the study period 2006-2015. Similarly, the
generation amounts of autoproducer power plants are obtained from owner company and
from their licences, again by assuming no natural gas supply constraint. (The maximum
22
•
generation from natural gas fired power plants is 70 TWh in the year 2005, the amount is 76
TWh in 2006 annual program and it is expected to be around 100 TWh for later years.)
Rehabilitation investments and maintenance-repair program for state owned power plants
are determined by EÜAŞ.
V.3. Capacities Under Construction, Capacities Granted by Licence and New Additional
Capacities
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
The generation amount of Afşin-Elbistan B thermal power plant which will be in operation
in 2006 is obtained from EÜAŞ and the generation amount will increase gradually year by
year.
On line dates and Project and Firm generation amounts of hydro power plants which are
under construction and having 2672 MW total installed capacity are obtained from DSİ.
Installed capacity, project generation and firm generation data for power plants granted by
licence as the end of December 2005 and expected to be in service on proposed time are
obtained from May-2006 Progress Report by EMRA.
It is assumed that power plants under construction (3752 MW) and granted by licence as
end of December 2005 (3350 MW) will be in service on proposed date within the period
2006-2011. The breakdown of installed capacity, project generation and firm generation by
primary resources of this 7102 MW additional capacity are on Table 16, Table 17 and Table
18 respectively.
Addition to 328 MW wind capacity granted by licence and expected to be in service on the
proposed date, by considering the connection of Turkish system to UCTE Grid and spinning
reserve requirement of the Turkish system it is assumed that approximately 125 MW new
wind capacity can be connected to the grid per year.
No import and export are being considered.
Capacity amount coming from the most recent Generation Expansion Planning Study is
taken into account as new additional capacity in order to meet both demand projection series
carried out by ETKB safely. ETKB policies on evaluation of domestic resources and
diversification of primary resources are reflected to Generation Expansion Planning study.
For the new additional thermal capacity, it is assumed that coal fired power plants can
operate 6500 hours, natural gas fired power plants and nuclear power plants can oprerate
7000 hours per year at full capacity equivalent
Project and firm generation capacity amounts of new additional hydro power plants are
determined by DSI,
The project generation amount of new additional wind power plants is assumed to be 3000hour full capacity equivalent generation and the firm generation amount to be 1500-hour
full capacity equivalent generation per year.
Power plants in operation as of the end of the year 2005 are listed on ANNEX-1, power
plants which have been commissioned in 2005 are on ANNEX-2, power plants under
construction and granted by licence and expected to be in service on proposed time are
listed on Table 16, Table 17 and Table 18.
23
Table 16 : Breakdown of Installed Capacity of Power Plants Granted by Licence, Expected
to be in Service on Proposed Date and under construction by Primary Resources.
Power Plants Granted by Licence, Expected to be in Service on Proposed Date
(From May 2006 Progress Report of EPDK)
RESOURCE
NATURAL GAS
FUEL OIL
HARD COAL
LIGNITE
HYDRO
BIOGAS
WASTE GAS (LFG)
GEOTHERMAL
WIND
TOTAL
2006
505.9
60.0
136.8
4.0
78.8
0.3
1.0
14.8
30.7
832.3
Installed Capacity (MW)
2007
2008
2009
2010
260.2
92.5
2011
135.0
407.9
457.9
302.0
306.5
52.5
90.0
642.9
592.9
608.5
122.4
2007
2008
2009
2010
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2011
0.0
68.7
122.4
15.0
207.5
551.4
TOTAL
858.6
60.0
271.8
306.0
1442.2
0.3
16.0
67.3
328.2
3350.4
Power Plants Under Construction
(EÜAŞ and DSİ Projects)
RESOURCE
LIGNITE
2006
1080.0
HYDRO
TOTAL
51.0
1131.0
GRAND TOTAL
LICENCED + UNDER
CONSTRUCTION
THERMAL
HYDRO
WIND + RENEWABLE
TOTAL
2006
1786.7
129.8
46.8
1963.3
573.0
573.0
510.5
510.5
51.8
51.8
199.4
199.4
2007
2008
2009
2010
260.2
92.5
135.0
302.0
641.7
918.4
1744.0
358.3
222.5
142.5
0.0
0.0
1124.4
1153.4
1879.0
660.3
2011
0.0
321.8
0.0
321.8
24
1286.1
1286.1
TOTAL
1080.0
2671.8
3751.8
TOTAL
2576.4
4114.0
411.8
7102.2
Table 17 : Breakdown of Project Generation Capacity of Power Plants Granted by Licence,
Expected to be in Service on Proposed Date and under construction by Primary Resources.
RESOURCE
NATURAL GAS
FUEL OIL
HARD COAL
LIGNITE
HYDRO
BIOGAS
WASTE GAS (LFG)
GEOTHERMAL
WIND
TOTAL
2006
3729.6
437.1
948.0
27.5
277.0
2.9
6.2
94.0
106.9
5629.2
Project Generation Capacity (GWh)
2007
2008
2009
2010
1902.1
585.5
2011
1064.3
1853.3
1770.6
1764.7
1269.6
241.7
440.0
3120.5
2834.9
3034.3
403.9
2007
2008
2009
2010
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2011
0.0
279.1
403.9
110.2
668.2
2959.6
TOTAL
6217.2
437.1
2012.3
1792.2
5853.5
2.9
116.4
335.7
1215.1
17982.4
RESOURCE
LIGNITE
2006
7020.0
HYDRO
TOTAL
124.0
7144.0
GRAND TOTAL
LICENCED + UNDER
CONSTRUCTION
THERMAL
HYDRO
WIND + RENEWABLE
TOTAL
2006
12162.2
401.0
210.0
12773.2
1914.0
1914.0
1444.0
1444.0
159.0
159.0
630.0
630.0
2007
2008
2009
2010
1902.1
585.5
1064.3
1764.7
2193.1
3297.3
5966.6
1428.6
778.4
681.7
0.0
0.0
4873.6
4564.5
7030.9
3193.3
2011
0.0
1033.9
0.0
1033.9
25
4196.0
4196.0
TOTAL
7020.0
8467.0
15487.0
TOTAL
17478.8
14320.5
1670.1
33469.4
Table 18 : Breakdown of Firm Generation Capacity of Power Plants Granted by Licence,
Expected to be in Service on Proposed Date and under construction by Primary Resources.
RESOURCE
NATURAL GAS
FUEL OIL
HARD COAL
LIGNITE
HYDRO
BIOGAS
WASTE GAS (LFG)
GEOTHERMAL
WIND
TOTAL
2006
3707.8
338.2
948.0
27.5
191.1
2.9
6.2
94.0
96.3
5412
Firm Generation Capacity (GWh)
2007
2008
2009
2010
1762.1
585.5
2011
1064.3
641.6
687.2
1764.7
556.8
183.7
396.0
1806.8
1751.5
2321.5
269.3
2007
2008
2009
2010
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2011
0.0
57.4
269.3
110.2
565.3
2495
TOTAL
6055.4
338.2
2012.3
1792.2
2403.4
2.9
116.4
277.7
1057.6
14056.1
RESOURCE
LIGNITE
2006
5866.0
HYDRO
TOTAL
124.0
5990.0
GRAND TOTAL
LICENCED + UNDER
CONSTRUCTION
THERMAL
HYDRO
WIND + RENEWABLE
TOTAL
2006
10887.5
315.1
199.4
11402.0
1188.0
1188.0
811.0
811.0
2855.0
2855.0
40.0
40.0
420.0
420.0
2007
2008
2009
2010
1762.1
585.5
1064.3
1764.7
1245.4
1452.6
3542.2
596.8
675.5
579.7
0.0
0.0
3683.0
2617.8
4606.5
2361.5
2011
0.0
689.3
0.0
689.3
TOTAL
5866.0
5438.0
11304.0
TOTAL
16064.1
7841.4
1454.6
25360.1
Installed capacities’ and generation capacities’ data of EÜAŞ and DSİ power plants which are
under construction and the same data for the power plants are granted by licence as end of
December 2005 but not in operation yet according to May 2006 Progress Report of EPDK are
used and indicated on ANNEX-3.
The breakdown of total installed capacity which consists existing capacity as end of the year
2005 and new additional capacities which are under construction and granted by licence and
expected to be in service on proposed date by primary resources and by utilities are listed on
Table 19 and Figure 9. When the annual peak load values are compared to annual development of
this installed capacity, without considering reserve the peak load will excess the installed
capacity in 2013 for Scenario 1 and in 2015 for Scenario 2. In other words, it is calculated that if
the expected peak load realizes the peak load can not be covered in 2013 for the Scenario 1 and in
2015 for the Scenario 2.
26
Table 19 : Breakdown of Installed Capacity by Utilities and by Primary Resources
(Including Existing, Under Construction and Granted by Licence Power Plants)
(MW)
FUEL OIL
EÜAŞ and AFFILIATED
PARTNERSHIP POWER
PLANTS
POWER PLANTS
UNDER TOR
CONTRACT
POWER PLANTS
UNDER BO CONTRACT
2011
680
2012
680
2013
680
2014
680
2015
680
196
196
196
196
196
196
196
196
300 300
300
300
300
300
300
300
300
300
LIGNITE
7461 7461
7461
7461
7461
7461
7461
7461
7461
7461
NATURAL GAS
3903 3903
3903
3903
3903
3903
3903
3903
3903
3903
GEOTHERMAL
15 15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
HYDRO
11161 11734 12244 13530 13582 13782 13782 13782 13782 13782
TOTAL
23716 24289 24799 26085 26137 26337 26337 26337 26337 26337
LIGNITE
620 620
620
620
620
620
620
620
620
HYDRO
30 30.1
30.1
30.1
30.1
30.1
30.1
30.1
30.1
30.1
TOTAL
650 650
650
650
650
650
650
650
650
650
NATURAL GAS
4782 4782
4782
4782
4782
4782
4782
4782
4782
4782
IMPORTED COAL
1320 1320
1320
1320
1320
1320
1320
1320
1320
1320
TOTAL
6102 6102
6102
6102
6102
6102
6102
6102
6102
6102
NATURAL GAS
1450 1450
1450
1450
1450
1450
1450
1450
1450
1450
982 982
982
982
982
982
982
982
982
982
17 17
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
2449 2449
2449
2449
2449
2449
2449
2449
2449
2449
722 534
620
263
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
DIESEL
0 0
TOTAL
722 534
263
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
FUEL OIL
828 828
828
828
828
828
828
828
828
828
18 18
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
IMPORTED COAL
331 331
331
331
331
331
331
331
331
331
HARD COAL
255 255
255
255
255
255
255
255
255
255
LIGNITE
150 150
150
150
150
150
150
150
150
150
52 52
52
52
52
52
52
52
52
52
1469
1469
1469
1469
1469
1469
1469
1469
DIESEL
LPG
NATURAL GAS
1469 1469
BİOGAS
12 12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
NAPHTA
336 336
336
336
336
336
336
336
336
336
OTHER
22 22
22
22
22
22
22
22
22
22
HYDRO
563 563
563
563
563
563
563
563
563
563
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
4039 4039
4039
4039
4039
4039
4039
4039
4039
4039
FUEL OIL
240 240
240
240
240
240
240
240
240
240
LIGNITE
4 4
4
4
306
306
306
306
306
306
137 137
137
272
272
272
272
272
272
272
2313 2573
WIND
TOTAL
COAL
3 3
2665
2665
2665
2665
2665
2665
2665
2665
NAPHTA
37 37
37
37
37
37
37
37
37
37
GEOTHERMAL
15 15
67
67
67
67
67
67
67
67
300 369
777
1235
1541
1664
1664
1664
1664
1664
NATURAL GAS
HYDRO
BİOGAS+WASTE
WIND
TOTAL
GRAND TOTAL
2010
680
196 196
TOTAL
GENERATION
COMPANIES GRANTED
BY LICENCE
2009
680
HARD COAL
FUEL OIL
AUTOPRODUCERS
2008
680
DIESEL
HYDRO
POWER PLANTS
UNDER BOT CONTRACT WIND
MOBILE PLANTS
2006
2007
680 680
3 18
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
31 238
328
328
328
328
328
328
328
328
3078 3630
4272
4865
5474
5596
5596
5596
5596
5596
40755 41692 42574 44190 44851 45172 45172 45172 45172 45172
27
Table 19 (Cont.) : Breakdown of Total Installed Capacity by Primary Resources
(MW)
YEAR
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
8235
8235
8235
8235
8537
8537
8537
8537
8537
8537
555
555
555
555
555
555
555
555
555
555
1788
1788
1788
1923
1923
1923
1923
1923
1923
1923
13916 14176 14268 14268 14268 14268 14268 14268 14268 14268
30
30
82
82
82
82
82
82
82
82
2470
2282
2011
1748
1748
1748
1748
1748
1748
1748
214
214
214
214
214
214
214
214
214
214
446
446
446
446
446
446
446
446
446
446
27653 27726 27599 27472 27774 27774 27774 27774 27774 27774
15
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
13036 13678 14596 16340 16698 17020 17020 17020 17020 17020
LIGNITE
HARD COAL
IMPORTED COAL
NATURAL GAS
GEOTHERMAL
FUEL OIL
DIESEL
OTHER
THERMAL TOTAL
BİOGAS+WASTE
HYDRO
51
WIND
258
348
348
348
348
348
348
348
348
40755 41692 42574 44190 44851 45172 45172 45172 45172 45172
TOTAL
Figure 9 : Breakdown of Total Installed Capacity by Utilities
60000
LICENCED
50000
AUTOPRODUCERS
EÜAŞ
40000
MW
MOBILE
BOT
30000
BO
TOR
20000
PEAK DEMAND (Scenario 2)
PEAK DEMAND (Scenario 1)
10000
0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Project and firm generation capacities of existing power plants as end of the year 2005, power
plants under construction and power plants granted by licence and expected to be in service on
proposed date by utilities and by primary resources are indicated on Table 20 and on Table 21
respectively.
28
Table 20 : Breakdown of Project Generation Capacity by Utilities and by Primary
Resources
(GWh)
FUEL OIL
DIESEL
HARD COAL
EÜAŞ and
AFFILIATED
LIGNITE
PARTNERSHIP
NATURAL GAS
POWER PLANTS
GEOTHERMAL
HYDRO
TOTAL
POWER PLANTS LIGNITE
UNDER TOR
HYDRO
CONTRACT
TOTAL
POWER PLANTS NATURAL GAS
UNDER BO
IMPORTED COAL
CONTRACT
TOTAL
NATURAL GAS
POWER PLANTS
HYDRO
UNDER BOT
WIND
CONTRACT
TOTAL
FUEL OIL
MOBILE PLANTS DIESEL
TOTAL
FUEL OIL
DIESEL
IMPORTED COAL
HARD COAL
LIGNITE
LPG
AUTOPRODUCERS NATURAL GAS
BİOGAS
NAPHTA
OTHER
HYDRO
WIND
TOTAL
FUEL OIL
LIGNITE
COAL
NATURAL GAS
GENERATION
NAPHTA
COMPANIES
GRANTED BY
GEOTHERMAL
LICENCE
HYDRO
BİOGAS+WASTE
WIND
TOTAL
GRAND TOTAL
2006
4760
1365
1950
48497
27320
105
38958
122955
3465
60
3525
37949
9099
47048
10944
3673
50
14667
4498
0
4498
5237
92.2
2550
1072
436
382
10325
66
2274
120
1714
7
24274
1813
28
948
286
17682
94
1191
19
107
22167
239134
2007
4760
1365
1950
48497
27320
105
40264
124261
3577
60
3637
38099
9092
47191
10988
3828
49
14865
1951
0
1951
5237
92.2
2550
1072
436
382
10325
66
2274
120
1714
7
24274
1813
28
948
286
19584
94
1470
129
775
25127
241306
2008
4760
1365
1950
48497
27320
105
41698
125695
3645
60
3705
38120
9312
47432
9974
3661
49
13684
285
0
285
5237
92.2
2550
1072
436
382
10325
66
2274
120
1714
7
24274
1813
28
948
286
20170
336
3324
129
1215
28247
243321
29
2009
4760
1365
1950
48497
27320
105
44189
128186
3553
60
3613
38328
9085
47412
10834
3592
49
14474
0
0
0
5237
92.2
2550
1072
436
382
10325
66
2274
120
1714
7
24274
1813
28
2012
286
20170
336
5094
129
1215
31082
249041
2010
4760
1365
1950
48497
27320
105
46539
130536
3504
60
3564
38886
9092
47978
10777
3543
49
14368
0
0
0
5237
92.2
2550
1072
436
382
10325
66
2274
120
1714
7
24274
1813
1792
2012
286
20170
336
6364
129
1215
34117
254837
2011
4760
1365
1950
48497
27320
105
46849
130846
3546
60
3606
38653
9309
47962
9974
3478
49
13502
0
0
0
5237
92.2
2550
1072
436
382
10325
66
2274
120
1714
7
24274
1813
1792
2012
286
20170
336
6768
129
1215
34521
254710
2012
4760
1365
1950
48497
27320
105
47301
131298
3594
60
3654
38133
9065
47198
11012
3357
49
14417
0
0
0
5237
92.2
2550
1072
436
382
10325
66
2274
120
1714
7
24274
1813
1792
2012
286
20170
336
6768
129
1215
34521
255362
2013
4760
1365
1950
48497
27320
105
47301
131298
3642
60
3702
37947
9025
46972
10777
3308
49
14134
0
0
0
5237
92.2
2550
1072
436
382
10325
66
2274
120
1714
7
24274
1813
1792
2012
286
20170
336
6768
129
1215
34521
254900
2014
4760
1365
1950
48497
27320
105
47301
131298
3553
60
3613
37683
8526
46209
9974
2830
49
12853
0
0
0
5237
92.2
2550
1072
436
382
10325
66
2274
120
1714
7
24274
1813
1792
2012
286
20170
336
6768
129
1215
34521
252767
2015
4760
1365
1950
48497
27320
105
47301
131298
3504
60
3564
37484
8775
46259
10833
2673
49
13555
0
0
0
5237
92.2
2550
1072
436
382
10325
66
2274
120
1714
7
24274
1813
1792
2012
286
20170
336
6768
129
1215
34521
253470
Table 20 (Cont.) : Breakdown of Total Project Generation Capacity by Primary Resources
(GWh)
YEAR
WIND
2006
52425
3022
12597
104220
199
16308
1457
3062
193289
85
45596
164
2007
52537
3022
12590
106316
199
13761
1457
3062
192944
195
47336
831
2008
52605
3022
12810
105908
441
12095
1457
3062
191399
195
50456
1271
2009
52512
3022
13647
106976
441
11810
1457
3062
192927
195
54649
1271
2010
54229
3022
13655
107477
441
11810
1457
3062
195152
195
58219
1271
2011
54270
3022
13872
106442
441
11810
1457
3062
194375
195
58869
1271
2012
54318
3022
13628
106959
441
11810
1457
3062
194697
195
59199
1271
2013
54366
3022
13587
106539
441
11810
1457
3062
194284
195
59150
1271
2014
54277
3022
13088
105472
441
11810
1457
3062
192629
195
58672
1271
2015
54228
3022
13337
106132
441
11810
1457
3062
193489
195
58515
1271
TOTAL
239134
241306
243321
249041
254837
254710
255362
254900
252767
253470
LIGNITE
HARD COAL
IMPORTED COAL
NATURAL GAS
GEOTHERMAL
FUEL OIL
DIESEL
OTHER
THERMAL TOTAL
BİOGAS+WASTE
HYDRO
30
Table 21 : Breakdown of Firm Generation Capacity by Utilities and by Primary Resources
(GWh)
EÜAŞ and
AFFILIATED
PARTNERSHIP
POWER PLANTS
POWER PLANTS
UNDER TOR
CONTRACT
POWER PLANTS
UNDER BO
CONTRACT
POWER PLANTS
UNDER BOT
CONTRACT
MOBILE PLANTS
AUTOPRODUCERS
GENERATION
COMPANIES
GRANTED BY
LICENCE
FUEL OIL
DIESEL
HARD COAL
LIGNITE
NATURAL GAS
GEOTHERMAL
HYDRO
TOTAL
LIGNITE
HYDRO
TOTAL
NATURAL GAS
IMPORTED COAL
TOTAL
NATURAL GAS
HYDRO
WIND
TOTAL
FUEL OIL
DIESEL
TOTAL
FUEL OIL
DIESEL
IMPORTED COAL
HARD COAL
LIGNITE
LPG
NATURAL GAS
BİOGAS
NAPHTA
OTHER
HYDRO
WIND
TOTAL
FUEL OIL
LIGNITE
COAL
NATURAL GAS
NAPHTA
GEOTHERMAL
HYDRO
BİOGAS+WASTE
WIND
TOTAL
GRAND TOTAL
2006
3301
1094
1605
28764
22629
91
31412
88896
3465
60
3525
37949
9099
47048
10944
3673
50
14667
4498
0
4498
5237
92.2
2550
1072
436
382
10325
66
2274
120
576
7
23136
1714
28
948
286
17660
94
536
19
96
21381
2007
3669
1094
1605
30477
23535
93
32217
92690
3577
60
3637
38099
9092
47191
10988
3828
49
14865
1951
0
1951
5237
92.2
2550
1072
436
382
10325
66
2274
120
576
7
23136
1714
28
948
286
19422
94
594
129
662
23876
207346
2008
3116
1094
1840
33892
23558
91
33117
96708
3645
60
3705
38120
9312
47432
9974
3661
49
13684
285
0
285
5237
92.2
2550
1072
436
382
10325
66
2274
120
576
7
23136
1714
28
948
286
20008
278
1235
129
1058
25683
210632
31
2009
3079
1051
1840
37431
22844
90
34815
101150
3553
60
3613
38328
9085
47412
10834
3592
49
14474
0
0
0
5237
92.2
2550
1072
436
382
10325
66
2274
120
576
7
23136
1714
28
2012
286
20008
278
1922
129
1058
27434
217219
2010
3385
1051
1840
38695
24147
90
36297
105505
3504
60
3564
38886
9092
47978
10777
3543
49
14368
0
0
0
5237
92.2
2550
1072
436
382
10325
66
2274
120
576
7
23136
1714
1792
2012
286
20008
278
2479
129
1058
29756
224307
2011
3792
1051
1840
40388
22841
90
36428
106430
3546
60
3606
38653
9309
47962
9974
3478
49
13502
0
0
0
5237
92.2
2550
1072
436
382
10325
66
2274
120
576
7
23136
1714
1792
2012
286
20008
278
2748
129
1058
30025
224660
2012
3792
1051
1840
40188
24147
90
36750
107858
3594
60
3654
38133
9065
47198
11012
3357
49
14417
0
0
0
5237
92.2
2550
1072
436
382
10325
66
2274
120
576
7
23136
1714
1792
2012
286
20008
278
2748
129
1058
30025
226288
2013
3792
1051
1840
40038
22844
90
36750
106405
3642
60
3702
37947
9025
46972
10777
3357
49
14183
0
0
0
5237
92.2
2550
1072
436
382
10325
66
2274
120
576
7
23136
1714
1792
2012
286
20008
278
2748
129
1058
30025
224423
2014
3792
1051
1840
39738
24147
90
36750
107408
3553
60
3613
37683
8526
46209
9974
3357
49
13380
0
0
0
5237
92.2
2550
1072
436
382
10325
66
2274
120
576
7
23136
1714
1792
2012
286
20008
278
2748
129
1058
30025
223770
2015
3792
1051
1840
39788
23626
90
36750
106937
3504
60
3564
37484
8775
46259
10833
3357
49
14239
0
0
0
5237
92.2
2550
1072
436
382
10325
66
2274
120
576
7
23136
1714
1792
2012
286
20008
278
2748
129
1058
30025
224159
Table 21 (Cont.) : Breakdown of Total Firm Generation Capacity by Primary Resources
(GWh)
YEAR
WIND
2006
32692
2677
12597
99507
185
14750
1186
3062
166656
85
36257
154
2007
34517
2677
12590
102369
187
12571
1186
3062
169160
195
37274
717
2008
38000
2912
12810
101984
369
10352
1186
3062
170675
195
38648
1113
2009
41447
2912
13647
102338
368
10030
1143
3062
174947
195
40965
1113
2010
44427
2912
13655
104141
368
10336
1143
3062
180044
195
42954
1113
2011
46161
2912
13872
101801
368
10743
1143
3062
180062
195
43290
1113
2012
46010
2912
13628
103623
368
10743
1143
3062
181489
195
43491
1113
2013
45908
2912
13587
101901
368
10743
1143
3062
179623
195
43491
1113
2014
45519
2912
13088
102136
368
10743
1143
3062
178971
195
43491
1113
2015
45520
2912
13337
102275
368
10743
1143
3062
179360
195
43491
1113
TOTAL
203151
207346
210632
217219
224307
224660
226288
224423
223770
224159
LIGNITE
HARD COAL
IMPORTED COAL
NATURAL GAS
GEOTHERMAL
FUEL OIL
DIESEL
OTHER
THERMAL TOTAL
BİOGAS+WASTE
HYDRO
32
VI.
STUDY RESULTS
VI.I. Case I
In this section, Supply-Demand Balance and results how to meet the demand increasing 8.4% per
year and reaching to 236.7 TWh in 2010 and 354.3 TWh in 2015 are summarized according to
• Scenario 1 demand series by considering power plants;
• Existing as end of the year 2005,
• Under construction,
• Granted by licence and expected to be in service on proposed date.
According to above situation, peak demand can not be covered starting from the year 2013. When
the generation capacity is considered, the energy demand can not be covered in 2009 according to
firm generation capacity and in 2011 according to project generation capacity.
Electricity generation expansion planning study determining the additional capacity requirement
in order to meet demand has been carried out on November 2004 by considering long term
natural gas supply contracts within the ETKB policies regarding evaluation of domestic and
renewable resources together with resource diversification. This planning study is carried out by
TEİAŞ on behalf of ETKB. According to this planning study results in order to meet the demand
which is expected to grow 8.4% per year it will be necessary to add 26298 MW new capacity in
total. 8478 MW of this total capacity comes from wind and hydro resources and the remaining
17820 MW from thermal resources.
Existing capacity, capacity under construction, capacity granted by licence and expected to be in
service on the proposed time and the development of new additional capacity requirement to
meet the increasing demand by years are indicated on Table 22.
Beside this, the development of total installed capacity with existing, under construction, granted
by licence and expected to be in service on proposed date and new additional capacities together
with capacity reserve after covering the peak load with power plants;
•
•
•
•
only existing capacity,
existing capacity + capacity under construction,
existing capacity + capacity under construction + capacity expected to be in service on
proposed date,
existing capacity + capacity under construction + capacity granted by licence and expected
to be in service on proposed date + new additional capacity requirement
are submitted on Table 22.
When the existing power plants are considered solely, capacity reserve starts from 41% in 2006
and decreases, vanishes in 2010 and the peak demand exceeds the total installed capacity in 2011
by reaching to –7.5%. According to the increase of peak demand the capacity reserve reaches to
–33% in year 2015 with the existing capacity as end of the year 2005.
When the sum of existing capacity and capacity under construction are considered, the capacity
reserve is 45% in 2006, drops to 1% in 2011, to –6% in 2012 and reaches to –26% in 2015.
33
When the sum of existing capacity, capacity under construction and capacity granted by licence
and expected to be in service on proposed date are examined together capacity reserve is 48% in
2006, decreases to –7% in 2013 and drops to –21% in 2015. If the new additional capacity
calculated by the planning study is considered together with existing capacity, capacity under
construction and capacity granted by licence and expected to be in service on proposed date,
capacity reserve is 48% in 2006 and is calculated to be between 26%-28% after the year 2010.
Table 22 : Installed Capacity and Peak Demand Balance (Case I)
(MW)
YEAR
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
THERMAL TOTAL
HYDRO TOTAL
WIND + RENEWABLE TOTAL
25837
12906
49
25650 25378 25115 25115 25115 25115 25115 25115 25115
12906 12906 12906 12906 12906 12906 12906 12906 12906
49
49
49
49
49
49
49
49
49
GRAND TOTAL
38792
38605 38333 38070 38070 38070 38070 38070 38070 38070
EXISTING POWER PLANTS
COVERING OF PEAK DEMAND WITH EXISTING POWER PLANTS
27500 29810 32314 35028 37971 41160 44618 48366 52428 56832
PEAK LOAD DEMAND
RESERVE %
41.1
POWER PLANTS UNDER CONSTRUCTION
1080
THERMAL TOTAL
51
HYDRO TOTAL
0
GRAND TOTAL
1131
29.5
18.6
8.7
0.3
-7.5
-14.7
-21.3
-27.4
-33.0
1080
624
0
1080
1135
0
1080
2421
0
1080
2472
0
1080
2672
0
1080
2672
0
1080
2672
0
1080
2672
0
1080
2672
0
1704
2215
3501
3552
3752
3752
3752
3752
3752
EXISTING AND UNDER CONSTRUCTION POWER PLANTS
26917 26730 26458 26195 26195 26195 26195 26195 26195 26195
THERMAL TOTAL
12957 13530 14041 15327 15378 15578 15578 15578 15578 15578
HYDRO TOTAL
49
49
49
49
49
49
49
49
49
49
GRAND TOTAL
39923
40309 40547 41571 41623 41822 41822 41822 41822 41822
COVERING OF PEAK DEMAND WITH EXISTING AND UNDER CONSTRUCTION POWER PLANTS
27500 29810 32314 35028 37971 41160 44618 48366 52428 56832
PEAK LOAD DEMAND
RESERVE %
45.2
35.2
25.5
18.7
9.6
1.6
-6.3
-13.5
-20.2
-26.4
THERMAL TOTAL
HYDRO TOTAL
707
79
47
967
148
269
1059
555
412
1194
1013
412
1496
1320
412
1496
1442
412
1496
1442
412
1496
1442
412
1496
1442
412
1496
1442
412
GRAND TOTAL
832
1384
2027
2620
3228
3350
3350
3350
3350
3350
UNDER CONSTRUCTION AND LICENCED POWER PLANTS
1787
2047 2139 2274
THERMAL TOTAL
130
772 1690 3434
HYDRO TOTAL
47
269
412
412
2576
3792
412
2576
4114
412
2576
4114
412
2576
4114
412
2576
4114
412
2576
4114
412
6780
7102
7102
7102
7102
7102
LICENCED POWER PLANTS
GRAND TOTAL
1963
3088
4241
6120
EXISTING, UNDER CONSTRUCTION AND LICENCED POWER PLANTS
27624 27696 27517 27390 27692 27692 27692 27692 27692 27692
THERMAL TOTAL
13036 13678 14596 16340 16698 17020 17020 17020 17020 17020
HYDRO TOTAL
96
318
461
461
461
461
461
461
461
461
GRAND TOTAL
40755
41692 42574 44190 44851 45172 45172 45172 45172 45172
COVERING OF PEAK DEMAND WITH EXISTING, UNDER CONSTRUCTION AND LICENCED POWER PLANTS
27500 29810 32314 35028 37971 41160 44618 48366 52428 56832
PEAK LOAD DEMAND
RESERVE %
48.2
39.9
31.8
34
26.2
18.1
9.7
1.2
-6.6
-13.8
-20.5
Table 22 (Cont.) : Installed Capacity and Peak Demand Balance (Case I)
(MW)
YEAR
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
700
5790
1274
625
8510 11225 14305 17820
2752 4350 5908 7353
750
875 1000 1125
7689 12012 16450 21213 26298
NEW ADDITIONAL CAPACITY
THERMAL TOTAL
HYDRO TOTAL
0
GRAND TOTAL
125
250
375
2800
543
500
125
250
1075
3843
EXISTING, UNDER CONSTRUCTION, LICENCED POWER PLANTS AND NEW ADDITIONAL CAPACITY
27624 27696 27517 28090 30492 33482 36202 38917 41997 45512
THERMAL TOTAL
13036 13678 14596 16340 17241 18294 19772 21370 22928 24373
HYDRO TOTAL
96
443
711
836
961
1086 1211 1336 1461 1586
40755 41817 42824 45265
GRAND TOTAL
48694
52861 57184 61622 66385 71470
COVERING OF PEAK DEMAND WITH EXISTING, UNDER CONSTRUCTION, LICENCED POWER PLANTS AND
PEAK LOAD DEMAND
27500 29810 32314 35028
RESERVE %
48.2
40.3
32.5
29.2
37971
41160 44618 48366 52428 56832
28.2
28.4
28.2
27.4
26.6
25.8
The annual development of total installed capacity composed of existing capacity + capacity
under construction + capacity granted by licence and expected to be in service on proposed time
+ new additional capacity is on Figure 10. On the figure, when the installed capacity development
is compared with peak demand, the peak demand can not be covered with the total installed
capacity starting from the year 2013.
Figure 10 : Development of Installed Capacity Composed of Existing Power Plants + Power
Plants Under Construction + Power Plants Granted by Licence and Expected to be in
Service on Proposed Time + New Additional Capacity and Peak Demand (Case I)
80000
The Year Peak Dem and can not be Covered
w ith the capacity com posed of Existing,
Under Construction and Licenced Pow er
Plants
70000
60000
MW
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
2006
EXISTING
2007
2008
UNDER CONSTRUCTION
2009
2010
LICENCED
35
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
PEAK DEMAND
The development of total project generation composed of existing, under construction, granted by
licence and expected to be in service on proposed time and new additional capacities together
with energy reserve after covering the demand with power plants;
•
•
•
•
proposed date,
are submitted on Table 23 for each composition.
When the existing power plants are considered solely, energy reserve starts from 32% in 2006
and decreases by year, the energy demand is being covered with a very small amount of reserve
in 2009, the energy demand exceeds the project generation capacity in 2010 and the energy
reserve drops to –38% in 2015.
When the total project generation of existing power plants and power plants under construction
are considered, the energy reserve is 36% in 2006, vanishes in 2010 and drops to negative value
of -1% in 2011 and reaches to –34% in 2015.
If the total project generation of existing power plants, power plants under construction and
power plants granted by licence and expected to be in service on proposed date are examined
together 39% of energy reserve is calculated in 2006, by decreasing the reserve becomes
negative value of –1% in 2011 and drops to –28% in 2015. And if project generation capacity of
the new additional capacity calculated by the planning study is considered together with existing
power plants, power plants under construction and power plants granted by licence and expected
to be in service on proposed date, energy reserve is 39% in 2006 and is calculated to be between
15%-18% after the year 2010.
Consequently, by considering the existing system, 3752 MW capacity under construction and
3350 MW capacity granted by licence and expected to be in service on proposed date the demand
in Scenario 1 (High Growth) can not be covered after the year 2011 by means of project
generation capacity.
36
Table 23 : Project Generation Capacity and Energy Demand Balance 2006-2015 (Case I)
(GWh)
YEAR
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
THERMAL TOTAL
HYDRO TOTAL
180928 178681 176309 176772 177232 176456 176777 176364 174709 175569
45195 45350 45183 45114 45065 45000 44879 44830 44352 44195
238
236
236
236
236
236
236
236
236
236
GRAND TOTAL
226361 224267 221728 222122 222533 221692 221892 221430 219297 220001
COVERING OF ENERGY DEMAND WITH EXISTING POWER PLANTS
171430 185830 201440 218361 236703 256586 278139 301503 326829 354283
ENERGY DEMAND
32.0
20.7
10.1
1.7
-6.0
-13.6
-20.2
-26.6
-32.9
-37.9
RESERVE %
7020
THERMAL TOTAL
124
HYDRO TOTAL
7020
1430
7020
2864
7020
5355
7020
7705
7020
8015
7020
8467
7020
8467
7020
8467
7020
8467
8450
9884
12375
14725
15035
15487
15487
15487
15487
GRAND TOTAL
7144
187948 185701 183329 183792 184252 183476 183797 183384 181729 182589
THERMAL TOTAL
45319 46780 48047 50469 52770 53015 53346 53297 52819 52662
HYDRO TOTAL
238
236
236
236
236
236
236
236
236
236
GRAND TOTAL
233505 232717 231612 234497 237258 236727 237379 236917 234784 235488
COVERING OF ENERGY DEMAND WITH EXISTING AND UNDER CONSTRUCTION POWER PLANTS
171430 185830 201440 218361 236703 256586 278139 301503 326829 354283
ENERGY DEMAND
RESERVE %
36.2
25.2
15.0
7.4
0.2
-7.7
-14.7
-21.4
-28.2
-33.5
THERMAL TOTAL
HYDRO TOTAL
5142
277
210
7044
556
988
7630
2409
1670
8694
4180
1670
10459
5450
1670
10459
5854
1670
10459
5854
1670
10459
5854
1670
10459
5854
1670
10459
5854
1670
GRAND TOTAL
5629
8589
11709
14544
17579
17982
17982
17982
17982
17982
12162 14064 14650
THERMAL TOTAL
401
1986
5273
HYDRO TOTAL
210
988
1670
15714
9535
1670
17479
13155
1670
17479
13869
1670
17479
14321
1670
17479
14321
1670
17479
14321
1670
17479
14321
1670
26919
32304
33017
33469
33469
33469
33469
GRAND TOTAL
12773
17039
21593
193090 192745 190959 192486 194711 193934 194256 193843 192188 193048
THERMAL TOTAL
45596 47336 50456 54649 58219 58869 59199 59150 58672 58515
HYDRO TOTAL
448
1225
1907
1907
1907
1907
1907
1907
1907
1907
GRAND TOTAL
239134 241306 243321 249041 254837 254710 255362 254900 252767 253470
COVERING OF ENERGY DEMAND WITH EXISTING, UNDER CONSTRUCTION AND LICENCED POWER PLANTS
171430 185830 201440 218361 236703 256586 278139 301503 326829 354283
ENERGY DEMAND
RESERVE %
39.5
29.9
20.8
14.1
7.7
-0.7
-8.2
-15.5
-22.7
-28.5
37
Table 23 (Cont.) : Project Generation Capacity and Energy Demand Balance 2006-2015
(Case I)
(GWh)
YEAR
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
40197
5586
1750
59037
11040
2100
77647
17160
2450
98858 123054
22979 27483
2800
3150
47533
72177
97257 124637 153687
4914
THERMAL TOTAL
HYDRO TOTAL
GRAND TOTAL
0
350
700
1050
19656
2401
1400
350
700
5964
23457
193090 192745 190959 197400 214367 234131 253293 271490 291046 316102
THERMAL TOTAL
45596 47336 50456 54649 60620 64455 70239 76310 81651 85998
HYDRO TOTAL
448
1575
2607
2957
3307
3657
4007
4357
4707
5057
GRAND TOTAL
239134 241656 244021 255005 278294 302243 327539 352157 377404 407157
COVERING OF ENERGY DEMAND WITH EXISTING, UNDER CONSTRUCTION, LICENCED POWER PLANTS AND NEW
ADDITIONAL CAPACITY
ENERGY DEMAND
RESERVE %
171430 185830 201440 218361 236703 256586 278139 301503 326829 354283
39.5
30.0
21.1
16.8
17.6
17.8
17.8
16.8
15.5
14.9
The annual development of total project generation of existing power plants + power plants
under construction + power plants granted by licence and expected to be in service on proposed
date + new additional capacity is on Figure 11 and the firm generation of the same capacity
composition is on Figure 12. The demand can not be covered with the total project generation in
2011 and with the total firm generation in 2009.
Figure 11 : Development of Project Generation Capacity of Existing Power Plants + Power
Service on Proposed Time + New Additional Capacity and Energy Demand (Case I)
The development of total firm generation composed of existing, under construction, granted by
38
•
•
•
•
proposed date,
When the existing power plants are considered solely, firm energy reserve starts from 12% in
2006 and decreases by year, the energy demand exceeds the firm generation capacity and the
energy reserve drops to negative value of –4% in 2008. The energy reserve drops persistently to
the level of –44% in 2015.
When the total firm generation of existing power plants and power plants under construction are
considered, energy reserve is 15% in 2006, drops to negative value of –0.3% in 2008 and reaches
to –41% in 2015.
If the total firm generation of existing power plants, power plants under construction and power
plants granted by licence and expected to be in service on proposed date are examined together
18% of energy reserve is calculated in 2006, by decreasing the energy reserve becomes negative
value of –1% in 2009 and drops to –37% in 2015. And if firm generation capacity of the new
additional capacity calculated by the planning study is considered together with existing power
plants, power plants under construction and power plants granted by licence and expected to be in
service on proposed date, energy reserve is 18% in 2006 and is calculated to be between 3%-5%
after the year 2010.
in Scenario 1 (High Growth) can not be covered after the year 2009 by means of firm generation
capacity.
39
Table 24 : Firm Generation Capacity and Energy Demand Balance 2006-2015 (Case I)
(GWh)
YEAR
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
THERMAL TOTAL
HYDRO TOTAL
156553 157293 158041 161249 164582 163630 165057 163192 162539 162928
35965 36120 35953 35884 35835 35771 35649 35649 35649 35649
224
224
222
221
221
221
221
221
221
221
GRAND TOTAL
192743 193638 194217 197355 200639 199622 200928 199063 198410 198799
171430 185830 201440 218361 236703 256586 278139 301503 326829 354283
ENERGY DEMAND
RESERVE %
12.4
4896
THERMAL TOTAL
100
HYDRO TOTAL
4.2
-3.6
-9.6
-15.2
-22.2
-27.8
-34.0
-39.3
-43.9
4896
905
4896
1805
4896
3503
4896
4985
5866
5116
5866
5438
5866
5438
5866
5438
5866
5438
5801
6701
8399
9881
10982
11304
11304
11304
11304
GRAND TOTAL
4996
161449 162189 162937 166145 169478 169496 170923 169058 168405 168794
THERMAL TOTAL
36065 37025 37758 39387 40820 40887 41087 41087 41087 41087
HYDRO TOTAL
224
224
222
221
221
221
221
221
221
221
GRAND TOTAL
197739 199439 200918 205754 210520 210604 212232 210367 209714 210103
171430 185830 201440 218361 236703 256586 278139 301503 326829 354283
ENERGY DEMAND
RESERVE %
15.3
7.3
-0.3
-5.8
-11.1
-17.9
-23.7
-30.2
-35.8
-40.7
THERMAL TOTAL
HYDRO TOTAL
5022
191
199
6784
249
875
7369
890
1455
8433
1577
1455
10198
2134
1455
10198
2403
1455
10198
2403
1455
10198
2403
1455
10198
2403
1455
10198
2403
1455
GRAND TOTAL
5412
7907
9714
11465
13787
14056
14056
14056
14056
14056
9918 11680 12265
THERMAL TOTAL
291
1154
2695
HYDRO TOTAL
199
875
1455
13329
5080
1455
15094
7119
1455
16064
7519
1455
16064
7841
1455
16064
7841
1455
16064
7841
1455
16064
7841
1455
19864
23668
25038
25360
25360
25360
25360
GRAND TOTAL
10408
13708
16415
166471 168973 170306 174579 179676 179694 181121 179256 178603 178992
THERMAL TOTAL
36257 37274 38648 40965 42954 43290 43491 43491 43491 43491
HYDRO TOTAL
423
1099
1677
1676
1676
1676
1676
1676
1676
1676
GRAND TOTAL
203151 207346 210632 217219 224307 224660 226288 224423 223770 224159
171430 185830 201440 218361 236703 256586 278139 301503 326829 354283
ENERGY DEMAND
RESERVE %
18.5
11.6
4.6
-0.5
-5.2
-12.4
-18.6
-25.6
-31.5
-36.7
40
Table 24 (Cont.) : Firm Generation Capacity and Energy Demand 2006-2015 (Case I)
(GWh)
YEAR
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
40197
2370
875
59037
5636
1050
77647
9327
1225
98858 123054
12585 14789
1400
1575
43442
65723
88199 112843 139418
4914
THERMAL TOTAL
HYDRO TOTAL
GRAND TOTAL
0
175
350
525
19656
1104
700
175
350
5439
21460
166471 168973 170306 179493 199332 219891 240158 256903 277461 302046
THERMAL TOTAL
36257 37274 38648 40965 44058 45660 49127 52818 56076 58280
HYDRO TOTAL
423
1274
2027
2201
2376
2551
2726
2901
3076
3251
GRAND TOTAL
203151 207521 210982 222658 245767 268102 292011 312622 336613 363577
ADDITIONAL CAPACITY
ENERGY DEMAND
RESERVE %
171430 185830 201440 218361 236703 256586 278139 301503 326829 354283
18.5
11.7
4.7
2.0
3.8
4.5
5.0
3.7
3.0
2.6
Figure 12 : Development of Firm Generation Capacity of Existing Power Plants + Power
Service on Proposed Date + New Additional Capacity and Energy Demand (Case I)
41
In order to cover the energy demand which is expected to increase 8.4% per annum, with the
addition of 3752 MW capacity under construction, 3350 MW capacity granted by licence and
expected to be in service on proposed date and 26298 MW capacity calculated by the long term
generation expansion planning study to the existing system, the total installed capacity will reach
to 71470 MW in the year 2015. The breakdown of this total installed capacity by hydro, thermal
and wind resources is shown on Table 25, Table 26, Table 27, Table 28, Table 29, Figure 13 and
Figure 14.
42
Table 25 : Breakdown of Installed Capacity of Power Plants to be Added to the System by Thermal, Hydro and Wind Resources (Case I)
Fuel Type
THERMAL
HYDRO
WIND
TOTAL
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2006-2015
0.0
0.0
0.0
700.0 2100.0 2990.0 2720.0 2715.0 3080.0 3515.0
17820.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
543.0
731.0 1478.0 1598.0 1558.0 1445.0
7353.0
0.0
125.0
125.0
125.0
125.0
125.0
125.0
125.0
125.0
125.0
1125.0
0.0
125.0
125.0
825.0 2768.0 3846.0 4323.0 4438.0 4763.0 5085.0
26298.0
UNDER CONSTRUCTION + LICENCED + NEW ADDITION
1963.3
1249.4
1278.4
2704.0
3428.3
4167.8
4323.0
4438.0
4763.0
5085.0
33400.2
Table 26 : Breakdown of Project Generation of Power Plants to be Added to the System by Thermal, Hydro and Wind Resources (Case I)
Fuel Type
THERMAL
HYDRO
WIND
TOTAL
2006
2007 2008
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0 125.0 125.0
0.0 125.0 125.0
2009
700.0
0.0
125.0
825.0
2010
2100.0
543.0
125.0
2768.0
2011
2990.0
731.0
125.0
3846.0
2012
2720.0
1478.0
125.0
4323.0
2013
2715.0
1598.0
125.0
4438.0
2014
3080.0
1558.0
125.0
4763.0
2015
2006-2015
3515.0
17820.0
1445.0
7353.0
125.0
1125.0
5085.0
26298.0
12773.2 5223.6 4914.5 12294.9 20686.3 25109.9 24644.0 25080.0 27380.0 29050.0
187156.4
Table 27 : Breakdown of Firm Generation of Power Plants to be Added to the System by Thermal, Hydro and Wind Resources (Case I)
Fuel Type
THERMAL
HYDRO
WIND
TOTAL
2006
2007 2008 2009
0.0
0.0
0.0 700.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0 125.0 125.0 125.0
0.0 125.0 125.0 825.0
2010
2100.0
543.0
125.0
2768.0
2011
2990.0
731.0
125.0
3846.0
2012
2720.0
1478.0
125.0
4323.0
2013
2715.0
1598.0
125.0
4438.0
2014
3080.0
1558.0
125.0
4763.0
2015
2006-2015
3515.0
17820.0
1445.0
7353.0
125.0
1125.0
5085.0
26298.0
11402.0 3858.0 2792.8 9695.5 18382.5 22671.3 22281.0 22476.0 24644.0 26575.0
164778.1
Figure 13 : Thermal-Hydro Breakdown of Additional Capacity (Case I)
Figure 14 : Development of Total Installed Capacity and Peak Demand (Case I)
70000
60000
MW
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
2006
2007
2008
THERMAL
2009
HYDRO
2010
2011
2012
WIND + RENEWABLE
2013
2014
PEAK DEMAND
2015
Figure 15 : Shares of Installed Capacity (Case I)
When the development of installed capacity and peak demand is considered for the study period,
the capacity reserve is more than 48% in 2006, and it decreases to level 40% and 32% for years
2007 and 2008 respectively with addition of power plants under construction and power plants
granted by licence as the end of December 2005 and expected to be in service on proposed date
to the existing system. With the addition of new capacity determined by long term generation
expansion planning study, the capacity reserve is calculated as to be between 26%-28% after the
year 2010. The energy reserve is between 15%-18% by means of project generation capacity and
between 3%-5% by means of firm generation capacity.
Figure 16 : Capacity Reserve, Project Generation Reserve and Firm Generation Reserve
(Case I)
45
Table 28 : Thermal-Hydro Development of Installed Capacity (Case I)
MW)
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
THERMAL
27624
27696
27517
28090
30492
33482
36202
38917
41997
45512
HYDRO
13036
13678
14596
16340
17241
18294
19772
21370
22928
24373
WIND +
RENEWABLE
96
443
711
836
961
1086
1211
1336
1461
1586
TOTAL
40755
41817
42824
45265
48694
52861
57184
61622
66385
71470
Table 29 : Shares of Installed Capacity (Case I)
(%)
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
THERMAL
67.8
66.2
64.3
62.1
62.6
63.3
63.3
63.2
63.3
63.7
HYDRO
32.0
32.7
34.1
36.1
35.4
34.6
34.6
34.7
34.5
34.1
46
WIND +
RENEWABLE
0.2
1.1
1.7
1.8
2.0
2.1
2.1
2.2
2.2
2.2
Figure 17 : Development of Project Generation, Firm Generation and Energy Demand
(Case I)
47
VI.2. Case II
In this section, Supply-Demand Balance and results how to meet the demand increasing 6.3% per
year and reaching to 218.9 TWh in 2010 and 297.1 TWh in 2015 are summarized according to
• Scenario 2 (Low Growth) demand series by considering power plants;
• Existing as end of the year 2005,
• Under construction,
• Granted by licence and expected to be in service on proposed date.
According to above situation, peak demand can not be covered starting from the year 2015. When
the generation capacity is considered, the energy demand can not be covered in 2011 according to
firm generation capacity and in 2013 according to project generation capacity.
Electricity generation expansion planning study determining the additional capacity requirement
in order to meet demand has been carried out on November 2004 by considering long term
natural gas supply contracts within the ETKB policies regarding evaluation of domestic and
renewable resources together with resource diversification. This planning study is carried out by
TEİAŞ on behalf of ETKB. According to this planning study results in order to meet the demand
which is expected to grow 6.3% per year it will be necessary to add 13807 MW new capacity in
total. 3877 MW of this total capacity comes from wind and hydro resources and the remaining
9930 MW from thermal resources.
Existing capacity, capacity under construction, capacity granted by licence and expected to be in
service on the proposed date and the development of new additional capacity requirement to meet
the increasing demand by years are indicated on Table 30.
Besides this, the development of total installed capacity with existing, under construction, granted
by licence and expected to be in service on proposed date and new additional capacities together
with capacity reserve after covering the peak load with power plants;
•
•
•
•
proposed date,
are submitted on Table 30.
When the existing power plants are considered solely, capacity reserve starts from 41% in 2006
and decreases, vanishes in 2011 and the peak demand exceeds the total installed capacity in 2012
by reaching to –4%. According to the increase of peak demand the capacity reserve reaches to
–20% in year 2015 with the existing capacity as end of the year 2005.
When the sum of existing capacity and capacity under construction are considered, the capacity
reserve is 45% in 2006, the peak demand is being covered with a very small amount of capacity
reserve, drops to negative value –1% in 2013 and reaches to –12% in 2015.
48
If the sum of existing capacity, capacity under construction and capacity granted by licence and
expected to be in service on proposed date are examined together, capacity reserve is 48% in
2006 and drops to –5% in 2015. And if the new additional capacity calculated by the planning
study is considered together with existing capacity, capacity under construction and capacity
granted by licence and expected to be in service on proposed date, capacity reserve is 48% in
2006 and is calculated to be between 24%-29% after the year 2010.
Table 30 : Installed Capacity and Peak Demand Balance (Case II)
(MW)
YEAR
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
THERMAL TOTAL
HYDRO TOTAL
25837
12906
49
25650 25378 25115 25115 25115 25115 25115 25115 25115
12906 12906 12906 12906 12906 12906 12906 12906 12906
49
49
49
49
49
49
49
49
49
GRAND TOTAL
38792
38605 38333 38070 38070 38070 38070 38070 38070 38070
COVERING OF PEAK DEMAND WITH EXISTING POWER PLANTS
27500 29233 31074 33032 35113 37325 39676 42176 44833 47658
PEAK LOAD DEMAND
RESERVE %
41.1
1080
THERMAL TOTAL
51
HYDRO TOTAL
0
GRAND TOTAL
1131
32.1
23.4
15.3
8.4
2.0
-4.0
-9.7
-15.1
-20.1
1080
624
0
1080
1135
0
1080
2421
0
1080
2472
0
1080
2672
0
1080
2672
0
1080
2672
0
1080
2672
0
1080
2672
0
1704
2215
3501
3552
3752
3752
3752
3752
3752
26917 26730 26458 26195 26195 26195 26195 26195 26195 26195
THERMAL TOTAL
12957 13530 14041 15327 15378 15578 15578 15578 15578 15578
HYDRO TOTAL
49
49
49
49
49
49
49
49
49
49
GRAND TOTAL
39923
40309 40547 41571 41623 41822 41822 41822 41822 41822
COVERING OF PEAK DEMAND WITH EXISTING AND UNDER CONSTRUCTION POWER PLANTS
27500 29233 31074 33032 35113 37325 39676 42176 44833 47658
PEAK LOAD DEMAND
RESERVE %
45.2
37.9
30.5
25.9
18.5
12.0
5.4
-0.8
-6.7
-12.2
THERMAL TOTAL
HYDRO TOTAL
707
79
47
967
148
269
1059
555
412
1194
1013
412
1496
1320
412
1496
1442
412
1496
1442
412
1496
1442
412
1496
1442
412
1496
1442
412
GRAND TOTAL
832
1384
2027
2620
3228
3350
3350
3350
3350
3350
1787
2047 2139 2274
THERMAL TOTAL
130
772 1690 3434
HYDRO TOTAL
47
269
412
412
2576
3792
412
2576
4114
412
2576
4114
412
2576
4114
412
2576
4114
412
2576
4114
412
6780
7102
7102
7102
7102
7102
GRAND TOTAL
1963
3088
4241
6120
27624 27696 27517 27390 27692 27692 27692 27692 27692 27692
THERMAL TOTAL
13036 13678 14596 16340 16698 17020 17020 17020 17020 17020
HYDRO TOTAL
96
318
461
461
461
461
461
461
461
461
GRAND TOTAL
40755
41692 42574 44190 44851 45172 45172 45172 45172 45172
COVERING OF PEAK DEMAND WITH EXISTING, UNDER CONSTRUCTION AND LICENCED POWER PLANTS
27500 29233 31074 33032 35113 37325 39676 42176 44833 47658
PEAK LOAD DEMAND
RESERVE %
48.2
42.6
37.0
49
33.8
27.7
21.0
13.9
7.1
0.8
-5.2
Table 30 (Cont.) : Installed Capacity and Peak Demand Balance (Case II)
(MW)
YEAR
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
1400
5355
1660
875
7570
2148
1000
9930
2752
1125
7890 10718 13807
THERMAL TOTAL
HYDRO TOTAL
0
GRAND TOTAL
125
250
375
500
625
3235
543
750
125
250
375
500
2025
4528
27624 27696 27517 27390 27692 29092 30927 33047 35262 37622
THERMAL TOTAL
13036 13678 14596 16340 16698 17020 17563 18680 19168 19772
HYDRO TOTAL
96
443
711
836
961
1086 1211 1336 1461 1586
40755 41817 42824 44565
GRAND TOTAL
45351
47197 49700 53062 55890 58979
COVERING OF PEAK DEMAND WITH EXISTING, UNDER CONSTRUCTION, LICENCED POWER PLANTS AND
27500 29233 31074 33032
PEAK LOAD DEMAND
RESERVE %
48.2
43.1
37.8
34.9
35113
29.2
37325 39676 42176 44833 47658
26.4
25.3
25.8
24.7
23.8
The annual development of total installed capacity composed of existing capacity + capacity
under construction + capacity granted by licence and expected to be in service on proposed date +
new additional capacity is on Figure 18. On the figure, when the installed capacity development
is compared with peak demand, the peak demand can be covered with the total installed capacity
without capacity reserve in the year 2014 and it can not be covered after the year 2015.
Figure 18 : Development of Installed Capacity Composed of Existing Power Plants + Power
Service on Proposed Time + New Additional Capacity and Peak Demand (Case II)
70000
The Year Peak Demand can not be Covered
with the capacity composed of Existing,
Under Construction and Licenced Power
Plants
60000
50000
MW
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
2006
EXISTING
2007
2008
2009
UNDER CONSTRUCTION
2010
LICENCED
50
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
PEAK DEMAND
The development of total project generation composed of existing, under construction, granted by
licence and expected to be in service on proposed date and new additional capacities together
•
•
•
•
proposed date,
When the existing power plants are considered solely, energy reserve starts from 32% in 2006
and decreases by year, the energy demand is being covered with a very small amount of reserve
in 2010, the energy demand exceeds the project generation capacity in 2011 and the energy
reserve drops to –26% in 2015.
When the total project generation of existing power plants and power plants under construction
are considered, the energy reserve is 36% in 2006, decreases to negative value of -4% in 2010
and drops to –21% in 2015.
If the total project generation of existing power plants, power plants under construction and
power plants granted by licence and expected to be in service on proposed date are examined
together 39% of energy reserve is calculated in 2006, by decreasing the reserve becomes negative
value of –3% in 2013 and drops to –15% in 2015. And if project generation capacity of the new
service on proposed date, energy reserve is 39% in 2006 and is calculated to be between 13%17% after the year 2010.
in Scenario 2 (Low Growth) can not be covered after the year 2013 by means of project
generation capacity.
51
Table 31 : Project Generation Capacity and Energy Demand Balance 2006-2015 (Case II)
(GWh)
YEAR
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
THERMAL TOTAL
HYDRO TOTAL
180928 178681 176309 176772 177232 176456 176777 176364 174709 175569
45195 45350 45183 45114 45065 45000 44879 44830 44352 44195
238
236
236
236
236
236
236
236
236
236
GRAND TOTAL
226361 224267 221728 222122 222533 221692 221892 221430 219297 220001
171430 182230 193711 205914 218887 232677 247335 262918 279481 297089
ENERGY DEMAND
RESERVE %
32.0
7020
THERMAL TOTAL
124
HYDRO TOTAL
23.1
14.5
7.9
1.7
-4.7
-10.3
-15.8
-21.5
-25.9
7020
1430
7020
2864
7020
5355
7020
7705
7020
8015
7020
8467
7020
8467
7020
8467
7020
8467
8450
9884
12375
14725
15035
15487
15487
15487
15487
GRAND TOTAL
7144
187948 185701 183329 183792 184252 183476 183797 183384 181729 182589
THERMAL TOTAL
45319 46780 48047 50469 52770 53015 53346 53297 52819 52662
HYDRO TOTAL
238
236
236
236
236
236
236
236
236
236
GRAND TOTAL
233505 232717 231612 234497 237258 236727 237379 236917 234784 235488
171430 182230 193711 205914 218887 232677 247335 262918 279481 297089
ENERGY DEMAND
RESERVE %
36.2
27.7
19.6
13.9
8.4
1.7
-4.0
-9.9
-16.0
-20.7
5142
277
210
7044
556
988
7630
2409
1670
8694
4180
1670
10459
5450
1670
10459
5854
1670
10459
5854
1670
10459
5854
1670
10459
5854
1670
10459
5854
1670
5629
8589 11709 14544 17579 17982 17982 17982 17982
GRAND TOTAL
LICENCED AND UNDER CONSTRUCTION PLANTS PROPOSED TO BE IN SERVICE ON FORECASTED DATE
(CUMULATIVE)
12162 14064 14650 15714 17479 17479 17479 17479 17479
THERMAL TOTAL
401
1986
5273
9535 13155 13869 14321 14321 14321
HYDRO TOTAL
210
988
1670
1670
1670
1670
1670
1670
1670
17982
THERMAL TOTAL
HYDRO TOTAL
GRAND TOTAL
12773
17039
21593
26919
32304
33017
33469
33469
33469
17479
14321
1670
33469
193090 192745 190959 192486 194711 193934 194256 193843 192188 193048
THERMAL TOTAL
45596 47336 50456 54649 58219 58869 59199 59150 58672 58515
HYDRO TOTAL
448
1225
1907
1907
1907
1907
1907
1907
1907
1907
GRAND TOTAL
239134 241306 243321 249041 254837 254710 255362 254900 252767 253470
171430 182230 193711 205914 218887 232677 247335 262918 279481 297089
ENERGY DEMAND
RESERVE %
39.5
32.4
25.6
20.9
16.4
9.5
3.2
-3.0
-9.6
-14.7
52
Table 31 (Cont.) : Project Generation Capacity and Energy Demand Balance 2006-2015
(Case II)
(GWh)
YEAR
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
37212
6705
2450
52226
8521
2800
68694
11041
3150
46367
63547
82885
9828
THERMAL TOTAL
HYDRO TOTAL
0
GRAND TOTAL
350
700
1050
1400
1750
22641
2401
2100
350
700
1050
1400
11578
27142
193090 192745 190959 192486 194711 203762 216897 231055 244414 261742
THERMAL TOTAL
45596 47336 50456 54649 58219 58869 61600 65855 67193 69556
HYDRO TOTAL
448
1575
2607
2957
3307
3657
4007
4357
4707
5057
239134 241656 244021 250091 256237 266288 282504 301267 316314 336355
GRAND TOTAL
ADDITIONAL CAPACITY
171430 182230 193711 205914 218887 232677 247335 262918 279481 297089
ENERGY DEMAND
RESERVE %
39.5
32.6
26.0
21.5
17.1
14.4
14.2
14.6
13.2
13.2
The annual development of total project generation of existing power plants + power plants
under construction + power plants granted by licence and expected to be in service on proposed
date + new additional capacity is on Figure 19 and the firm generation of the same capacity
composition is on Figure 20. The demand can not be covered with the total project generation in
2013 and with the total firm generation in 2011.
Figure 19 : Development of Project Generation Capacity of Existing Power Plants + Power
Service on Proposed Time + New Additional Capacity and Energy Demand (Case II)
400000
The Year Energy Demand can not be
Covered with the capacity composed of
Existing, Under Construction and
Licenced Power Plants
350000
300000
GWh
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
2006
EXISTING
2007
2008
2009
UNDER CONSTRUCTION
2010
LICENCED
53
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
PEAK DEMAND
The development of total firm generation composed of existing, under construction, granted by
•
•
•
•
proposed date,
When the existing power plants are considered solely, firm energy reserve starts from 12% in
2006 and decreases by year, vanishes in the year 2008, the energy demand exceeds the firm
generation capacity and the energy reserve drops to negative value of –4% in 2009. The energy
reserve drops persistently to the level of –33% in 2015.
When the total firm generation of existing power plants and power plants currently under
construction are considered, the energy reserve is 15% in 2006, drops to negative value in 2009
and reaches to –29% in 2015.
If the total firm generation of existing power plants, power plants under construction and power
plants granted by licence and expected to be in service on proposed date are examined together
18% of energy reserve is calculated in 2006, by decreasing the energy reserve becomes negative
value of –3% in 2011 and drops to –24% in 2015. And if firm generation capacity of the new
service on proposed date, energy reserve is 18% in 2006 and is calculated to be between 1%-3%
after the year 2010.
in Scenario 2 (Low Growth) can not be covered after the year 2011 by means of firm generation
capacity.
54
Table 32 : Firm Generation Capacity and Energy Demand Balance 2006-2015 (Case II)
(GWh)
YEAR
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
THERMAL TOTAL
HYDRO TOTAL
156553 157293 158041 161249 164582 163630 165057 163192 162539 162928
35965 36120 35953 35884 35835 35771 35649 35649 35649 35649
224
224
222
221
221
221
221
221
221
221
GRAND TOTAL
192743 193638 194217 197355 200639 199622 200928 199063 198410 198799
171430 182230 193711 205914 218887 232677 247335 262918 279481 297089
ENERGY DEMAND
RESERVE %
12.4
4896
THERMAL TOTAL
100
HYDRO TOTAL
6.3
0.3
-4.2
-8.3
-14.2
-18.8
-24.3
-29.0
-33.1
4896
905
4896
1805
4896
3503
4896
4985
5866
5116
5866
5438
5866
5438
5866
5438
5866
5438
5801
6701
8399
9881
10982
11304
11304
11304
11304
GRAND TOTAL
4996
161449 162189 162937 166145 169478 169496 170923 169058 168405 168794
THERMAL TOTAL
36065 37025 37758 39387 40820 40887 41087 41087 41087 41087
HYDRO TOTAL
224
224
222
221
221
221
221
221
221
221
GRAND TOTAL
197739 199439 200918 205754 210520 210604 212232 210367 209714 210103
171430 182230 193711 205914 218887 232677 247335 262918 279481 297089
ENERGY DEMAND
RESERVE %
15.3
9.4
3.7
-0.1
-3.8
-9.5
-14.2
-20.0
-25.0
-29.3
5022
191
199
6784
249
875
7369
890
1455
8433
1577
1455
10198
2134
1455
10198
2403
1455
10198
2403
1455
10198
2403
1455
10198
2403
1455
10198
2403
1455
5412
7907
9714 11465 13787 14056 14056 14056 14056
GRAND TOTAL
LICENCED AND UNDER CONSTRUCTION PLANTS PROPOSED TO BE IN SERVICE ON FORECASTED DATE
(CUMULATIVE)
9918 11680 12265 13329 15094 16064 16064 16064 16064
THERMAL TOTAL
291
1154
2695
5080
7119
7519
7841
7841
7841
HYDRO TOTAL
199
875
1455
1455
1455
1455
1455
1455
1455
14056
THERMAL TOTAL
HYDRO TOTAL
GRAND TOTAL
10408
13708
16415
19864
23668
25038
25360
25360
25360
16064
7841
1455
25360
166471 168973 170306 174579 179676 179694 181121 179256 178603 178992
THERMAL TOTAL
36257 37274 38648 40965 42954 43290 43491 43491 43491 43491
HYDRO TOTAL
423
1099
1677
1676
1676
1676
1676
1676
1676
1676
GRAND TOTAL
203151 207346 210632 217219 224307 224660 226288 224423 223770 224159
171430 182230 193711 205914 218887 232677 247335 262918 279481 297089
ENERGY DEMAND
RESERVE %
18.5
13.8
8.7
5.5
2.5
-3.4
-8.5
-14.6
-19.9
-24.5
55
Table 32 (Cont.) : Firm Generation Capacity and Energy Demand Balance 2006-2015 (Case
II)
(GWh)
YEAR
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
37212
3397
1225
52226
3922
1400
68694
5636
1575
41834
57548
75905
9828
THERMAL TOTAL
HYDRO TOTAL
0
GRAND TOTAL
175
350
525
700
875
22641
1104
1050
175
350
525
700
10703
24795
166471 168973 170306 174579 179676 189522 203762 216468 230829 247686
THERMAL TOTAL
36257 37274 38648 40965 42954 43290 44595 46888 47413 49127
HYDRO TOTAL
423
1274
2027
2201
2376
2551
2726
2901
3076
3251
203151 207521 210982 217744 225007 235363 251083 266257 281318 300064
GRAND TOTAL
ADDITIONAL CAPACITY
171430 182230 193711 205914 218887 232677 247335 262918 279481 297089
ENERGY DEMAND
RESERVE %
18.5
13.9
8.9
5.7
2.8
1.2
1.5
1.3
0.7
1.0
Figure 20 : Development of Firm Generation Capacity of Existing Power Plants + Power
Service on Proposed Date + New Additional Capacity and Energy Demand (Case II)
350000
The Year Energy Demand can not be Covered
with the capacity composed of Existing,
Under Construction and Licenced Power
Plants
300000
250000
GWh
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
2006
2007
EXISTING
2008
2009
2010
UNDER CONSTRUCTION
LICENCED
56
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
PEAK DEMAND
In order to cover the energy demand which is expected to increase 6.3% per annum, with the
addition of 3752 MW capacity under construction, 3350 MW capacity granted by licence and
expected to be in service on proposed date and 13807 MW capacity calculated by the long term
generation expansion planning study to the existing system, total installed capacity will reach to
58979 MW in the year 2015. Te breakdown of this total installed capacity by hydro, thermal and
wind resources is shown on Table 33, Table 34, Table 35, Table 36, Table 37, Figure 21 and
Figure 22.
57
Table 33 : Breakdown of Installed Capacity of Power Plants to be Added to the System by Thermal, Hydro and Wind Resources (Case II)
Fuel Type
THERMAL
HYDRO
WIND
TOTAL
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2006-2015
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0 1400.0 1835.0 2120.0 2215.0 2360.0
9930.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
543.0 1117.0
488.0
604.0
2752.0
0.0
125.0
125.0
125.0
125.0
125.0
125.0
125.0
125.0
125.0
1125.0
0.0
125.0
125.0
125.0
125.0 1525.0 2503.0 3362.0 2828.0 3089.0
13807.0
1963.3
1249.4
1278.4
2004.0
785.3
1846.8
2503.0
3362.0
2828.0
3089.0
20909.2
Table 34 : Breakdown of Project Generation of Power Plants to be Added to the System by Thermal, Hydro and Wind Resources (Case II)
Fuel Type
THERMAL
III.1. HYDRO
III.2. WIND
III.3. TOTAL
2006
2007 2008
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0 350.0 350.0
0.0 350.0 350.0
2009
0.0
0.0
350.0
350.0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2006-2015
0.0 9828.0 12813.0 14571.0 15014.0 16468.0
68694.0
0.0
0.0 2401.0 4304.0 1816.0 2520.0
11041.0
350.0
350.0
350.0
350.0
350.0
350.0
3150.0
350.0 10178.0 15564.0 19225.0 17180.0 19338.0
82885.0
12773.2 5223.6 4914.5
7380.9
3543.3 11211.9 15564.0 19225.0 17180.0 19338.0
116354.4
Table 35 : Breakdown of Firm Generation of Power Plants to be Added to the System by Thermal, Hydro and Wind Resources (Case II)
Fuel Type
THERMAL
HYDRO
WIND
TOTAL
2006
2007 2008 2009
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0 175.0 175.0 175.0
0.0 175.0 175.0 175.0
11402.0 3858.0 2792.8 4781.5
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2006-2015
0.0 9828.0 12813.0 14571.0 15014.0 16468.0
68694.0
0.0
0.0 1104.0 2293.0
525.0 1714.0
5636.0
175.0
175.0
175.0
175.0
175.0
175.0
1575.0
175.0 10003.0 14092.0 17039.0 15714.0 18357.0
75905.0
2536.5 10692.3 14092.0 17039.0 15714.0 18357.0
101265.1
Figure 21 : Thermal-Hydro Breakdown of Additional Capacity (Case II)
Figure 22 : Development of Total Installed Capacity and Peak Demand (Case II)
59
Table 36: Thermal-Hydro Development of Installed Capacity (Case II)
MW)
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
THERMAL
27624
27696
27517
27390
27692
29092
30927
33047
35262
37622
WIND +
HYDRO
RENEWABLE
13036
96
13678
443
14596
711
16340
836
16698
961
17020
1086
17563
1211
18680
1336
19168
1461
19772
1586
TOTAL
40755
41817
42824
44565
45351
47197
49700
53062
55890
58979
Table 37 : Shares of Installed Capacity (Case II)
(%)
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
THERMAL
67.8
66.2
64.3
61.5
61.1
61.6
62.2
62.3
63.1
63.8
HYDRO
32.0
32.7
34.1
36.7
36.8
36.1
35.3
35.2
34.3
33.5
60
WIND +
RENEWABLE
0.2
1.1
1.7
1.9
2.1
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.7
Figure 23 : Shares of Installed Capacity (Case II)
When the development of installed capacity and peak demand is considered for the study period,
the capacity reserve is more than 40% in years 2006 and 2007, and it is observed that the high
capacity reserve reflects to years 2008 and 2009 with addition of power plants under
construction and power plants granted by licence as the end of December 2005 and expected to
be in service on proposed date to the existing system. With the addition of new capacity
determined by long term generation expansion planning study, the capacity reserve is calculated
to be between 24%-29% after the year 2010. The energy reserve is between 13%-17% by means
of project generation capacity and between 1%-3% by means of firm generation capacity.
(Figure 24). The generation expansion planning study determining the new additional capacity
requirement has been carried out on November 2004, and according to this study results with the
addition of new capacity, the firm generation reserve is expected to remain at a lower level. But,
when the generation expansion planning study is revised, this situation will be considered.
61
Figure 24 : Capacity Reserve, Project Generation Reserve and Firm Generation Reserve
(Case II)
Figure 25 : Development of Project Generation, Firm Generation and Energy Demand
(Case II)
62
VII. THE REVIEW OF THE GENERATION CAPACITY PROJECTION
STUDY REGARDING SECURITY OF SUPPLY
In case if;
• demand has not realized as forecasted,
• water flow accumulated in hydro plants has not realized as estimated before,
• some constrains have been faced with in the supply and quality of fuel,
• long term outages have occurred at power plants,
• plants which are licensed and under construction, have not been in service on foreseen
dates,
are considered; it is essentially necessary for electricity system operation, to keep capacity and
energy reserves by primary energy resources on certain amounts. Therefore, in order to operate
generation system with reserves before the overlap of demand with supply, necessary measures
should be adopted by taking into consideration of construction duration of investment facilities.
The additional capacity amount which is used in this study is taken from the result of generation
planning study that is prepared by the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources and comprising
energy policies and principles, is calculated by taking into account generation system load
curve’s shapes and types of power plants which are capable to meet base load and peak load
demands. However, this generation planning study that defined the new additional capacity, was
carried out in November 2004, during the period since then, there have been observed some
reductions on reliable energy reserves due to the occurred changes about existing, under
construction and granted by license projects. This subject will be taken into consideration in the
case of the revision of Generation Planning study in which new additional capacity defined.
The allocation of new additional capacity, used in this projection, among thermal and hydraulic
facilities carries importance for ensuring of security of supply. Although thermal plants at full
capacity, operate for 6500-7000 hours per year, the hydro plants operate 3500-4000 hours, wind
plants at full capacity 1500-3000 hours, the annual project generation amount varies according to
the types of plants due to the differences at working hours.
In the case of covering whole of required new capacity to be constructed in order to meet peak
demand, from thermal plants, the additional capacity will be about half of the same capacity that
is totally covered by hydro and renewable plants.
By the intensification of primary resource allocation of additional capacity at thermal plants, the
amount of additional capacity is decreasing and hydro and wind plants are increasing.
With the help of the results of this capacity projection, it is explicitly observed that the results
will be effected whether the assumptions defined for this study are realized or not. As obvious in
assumptions, it is foreseen concerning whole of the plants connected to the system will operate
with average and firm generation capacities depending on their installed capacity and will not
have any problem in fuel supply and the hydrological conditions will be as it is forecasted.
Whereas;
Since the auto-producer and generation company plants operate for their needs and customers
that are subject to market conditions, their generation amounts may vary according to years.
63
Therefore, in the case of failure of generation amount foreseen in this study for auto-producer
and generation company plants total generation capacity may decrease and deficit yielding year
to meet both of two demand series may come further. It should not be neglected that, due to their
primary resource is mainly composed of natural gas and liquid fuel, auto-producer and
generation companies’ plants will not be able to compete in market conditions.
If the constrains in natural gas supply are taken into consideration, the estimated approximate
generation capacity of 100 billion kWh concerning existing natural gas plants, which is realized
as 70 billion kWh in 2005 and is estimated as 76 billion kWh for 2006 year programming . It
should not be neglected that, if gas supply is not augmented enough and progressed in the same
manner for 2007 and so on, this situation will considerably draw generation capacity down and
deficit yielding years to meet both of two demand series will rapidly move forward.
It should not be neglected that under construction hydraulic power plants of total 2672 MW
installed capacity, in the case of not to be in service or delay on their dates foreseen by the
General Directorate of State Hydraulic Works and also licensed power plants as end of
December 2005 of total 3350 MW installed capacity in case of not to be in service or delay on
their dates foreseen by Energy Market Regulatory Authority (EMRA); there will be again a
reduction in the amount of total generation capacity and deficit yielding years to meet both of
two demand series might move forward.
In this projection study, energy imports and exports are neglected. When current net transfer
capacity of interconnection lines is taken into account; even if all of the transmission lines which
are connected to UCTE system via two existing lines with Bulgaria and one with Greece to be
completed by 2007 ( Turkish part of this line is almost completed) and those lines excluding
UCTE; with Georgia, Armenia, Iran, Iraq and Syria are utilized and energy surplus occurred in
all of these countries, the maximum energy to be imported would be 4-5% of current total
consumption which is equivalent to 7-8 billion kWh. However, it should not be neglected that all
of these transmission lines may not operate synchronously and energy surplus may not occur in
all of these countries at the same time.
To meet peak demand, the amount of installed capacities is taken into account. However it
should not be neglected that water the level of reservoirs, fuel quality of thermal power plants,
operation of natural gas power plants according to the ISO standards and operation of some
auto-producers on a seasonal base and operation of some run of river type plants depending on
water amount varying from season to season, may changed their output level.
In this study, by taking into consideration the possibility of synchronously non realization of
above mentioned issues and not to be neglected points and the generation amounts they refer
due to the requirement for a multi alternative demand supply balance calculation which is
reflecting each of those situations, the results demonstrating their effects are not studied.
However, when the alternatives concerning the possibilities of natural gas fired power plants to
generate 76 billion kWh as projected in the generation program of 2006 instead of 100 billion
kWh generation capacity as forecasted in this study and of auto-producers to generate 19.1
billion kWh as projected in generation program of 2006 instead of 23.4 billion kWh as projected
in this study taken into consideration; calculated average and firm energy generation concerning
existing generation facilities will diminish about 30 billion kWh and this situation will make the
years which are failed to meet demand earlier.
64
VIII. ANNEXES
65
ANNEX – 1 : EXISTING SYSTEM (As end of year 2005)
EÜAŞ THERMAL POWER PLANTS (2005 Temporary)
NO
1
NAME OF THE PLANT
Çatalağzı
FUEL TYPE
LOCATION
(PROVINCE)
Hard Coal
Zonguldak
Hard Coal Total
2
TOTAL
INSTALLED
CAPACITY
(MW)
GROSS
PROJECT
GENERATION GENERATION
(GWh)
(GWh)
300.0
1.856.7
1950.0
300.0
1.856.7
1950.0
Afşin-Elbistan A
Lignite
K.Maraş
1355.0
2.511.0
8807.5
Afşin-Elbistan B
"
K.Maraş
360.0
4.431.3
2340.0
4
Çan
"
Çanakkale
320.0
825.2
2080.0
5
Kangal
"
Sivas
457.0
2.049.8
2970.5
6
Orhaneli
"
Bursa
210.0
634.0
1365.0
7
Seyitömer
"
Kütahya
600.0
3.455.1
3900.0
8
Tunçbilek A
"
Kütahya
65.0
9
Tunçbilek B
"
Kütahya
300.0
1.210.4
1950.0
3667.0
15116.8
23837.0
630.0
854.8
4100.0
50.0
0.0
200.0
680.0
854.8
4300.0
3
(*)
Lignite Total
10
Ambarlı
11
Hopa
Fuel-Oil
"
İstanbul
Artvin
Fuel-Oil Total
12
Aliağa GT+CC
13
14
424.0
Diesel
İzmir
180.0
0.0
540.0
Engil GT
"
Van
15.0
0.0
90.0
Çukurca
"
Hakkari
1.00
0.0
196.00
0.0
630.0
İstanbul
1350.9
6.275.5
8780.0
Bursa
1432.0
2.383.2
10024.0
Natural gas Total
2782.9
8658.7
18804.0
THERMAL TOTAL
7625.9
26487.0
49521.0
15.0
94.6
90.0
15.0
94.6
90.0
Diesel Total
15
Ambarlı CC
16
Bursa CC
17
Denizli
Natural Gas
"
Geothermal
Denizli
Geothermal Total
*Trial Generation of Other Units are Included.
66
EÜAŞ HYDRO POWER PLANTS (2005 Temporary)
NO
NAME OF THE PLANT
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
Adıgüzel
Almus
Altınkaya
Aslantaş
Ataköy
Atatürk
Batman
Berke
Beyköy
Çamlıgöze
Çatalan
Demirköprü
Derbent
Dicle
Gezende
Gökçekaya
H.Polatkan/Sarıyar
H.Uğurlu
Hirfanlı
Kapulukaya
Karacaören I
Karacaören II
Karakaya
Karkamış
Keban
Kemer
Kesikköprü
Kılıçkaya
Koçköprü
Köklüce
Kralkızı
Kuzgun
Kürtün
Manavgat
Menzelet
Muratlı
Özlüce
S.Uğurlu
Seyhan I
Seyhan II
Sır
Tercan
Yenice
Zernek(Hoşap)
TYPE
Dam
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
LOCATION
(PROVINCE)
Denizli
Tokat
Samsun
Adana
Tokat
Ş.Urfa
Batman
Adana
Eskişehir
Sivas
Adana
Manisa
Samsun
Diyarbakır
İçel
Eskişehir
Ankara
Samsun
Kırşehir
Kırıkkale
Burdur
Burdur
Diyarbakır
G.Antep
Elazığ
Aydın
Ankara
Sivas
Van
Tokat
Diyarbakır
Erzurum
Gümüşhane
Antalya
K.Maraş
Artvin
Bingöl
Samsun
Adana
Adana
K.Maraş
Erzincan
Ankara
Van
TOTAL (DAM)
1
2
3
4
Çıldır
Kovada -I
Kovada -II
Tortum
Natural Lake
"
"
"
Kars
Isparta
Isparta
Erzurum
TOTAL (NATURAL LAKE)
67
TOTAL
INSTALLED
CAPACITY
(MW)
GENERATION (PROJECT)
GROSS
AVERAGE
FIRM
GENERATION
(GWh)
(GWh)
(GWh)
62.0
27.0
702.6
138.0
5.5
2405.0
198.0
510.0
16.8
32.0
168.9
69.0
56.4
110.0
159.4
278.4
160.0
500.0
128.0
54.0
32.0
47.2
1800.0
189.0
1330.0
48.0
76.0
120.0
8.8
90.0
94.5
20.9
85.0
48.0
124.0
115.0
170.0
69.0
60.0
7.2
283.5
15.0
37.9
3.5
142.8
95.0
653.4
599.1
8.6
7846.0
354.6
1588.4
57.4
101.2
340.0
102.3
155.4
148.8
361.3
364.7
275.4
1372.9
74.3
44.4
104.7
189.0
7480.6
390.2
6694.9
56.2
50.0
361.1
23.2
474.5
94.6
20.9
200.0
109.5
512.3
257.2
489.6
358.7
176.7
2.9
728.9
52.0
93.6
9.0
280.0
99.0
1632.0
569.0
8.0
8900.0
483.0
1668.0
87.0
102.0
596.0
193.0
257.0
298.0
528.0
562.0
400.0
1217.0
400.0
190.0
142.0
206.0
7354.0
652.0
6000.0
143.0
250.0
332.0
25.0
588.0
142.0
36.0
198.0
220.0
515.0
444.0
413.0
345.0
350.0
20.0
725.0
51.0
122.0
13.0
15.0
39.0
1236.0
360.0
8.0
7400.0
196.0
921.0
87.0
77.0
270.0
78.0
201.0
228.0
130.0
460.0
328.0
820.0
178.0
150.0
84.0
118.0
6800.0
462.0
5820.0
62.0
110.0
277.0
16.0
577.0
111.0
0.0
95.0
40.0
435.0
400.0
290.0
206.0
109.0
0.0
408.0
28.0
92.0
6.0
10655.5
33616.3
37754.9
29728.0
15.4
8.3
51.2
26.2
57.7
7.7
40.5
120.6
30.0
35.0
222.0
85.0
20.0
19.0
121.0
85.0
101.0
226.5
372.0
245.0
EÜAŞ HYDRO POWER PLANTS (2005 Temporary)
NO
NAME OF THE PLANT
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
Adilcevaz
Ahlat
Anamur
Arpaçay-Telek
Bayburt
Besni
Botan
Bozkır
Bozüyük
Bozyazı
Bünyan
Ceyhan
Çağ-Çağ
Çamardı
Çemişgezek
Değirmendere
Dere
Derme (Sümer)
Doğankent A+B
Dörtyol-Kuzuculu
Durucasu
Engil
Erciş
Erkenek
Ermenek
Esendal
Girlevik
Göksu
Gülnar-Zeyne
Hakkari-Otluca
Haraklı-Hendek
Işıklar-Visera
İkizdere
İnegöl-Cerrah
İvriz
İznik-Dereköy
Kadıncık I
Kadıncık II
Kars-Dereiçi
Kayadibi
Kayaköy
Kepez I
Kepez II
Kernek
Kiti
Koyulhisar
Ladik-Büyükkızoğlu
M.Kemal Paşa-Suuçtu
Malazgirt
Mercan
Mut-Derinçay
Osmaniye-Karaçay
Pazarköy-Akyazı
Pınarbaşı
Sızır
Silifke
Turunçova - Finike
Uludere
Varto-Sönmez
Yüreğir
TYPE
Run of River
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
LOCATION
(PROVINCE)
Bitlis
Bitlis
İçel
Kars
Bayburt
Adıyaman
Siirt
Konya
Bilecik
İçel
Kayseri
K.Maraş
Mardin
Niğde
Tunceli
Adana
Konya
Malatya
Giresun
Hatay
Amasya
Van
Van
Malatya
Karaman
Artvin
Erzincan
Karaman
İçel
Hakkari
Sakarya
Trabzon
Rize
Bursa
Konya
Bursa
İçel
İçel
Kars
Bartın
Kütahya
Antalya
Antalya
Malatya
Iğdır
Sivas
Samsun
Bursa
Muş
Tunceli
İçel
Adana
Sakarya
Kayseri
Kayseri
İçel
Antalya
Şırnak
Muş
Adana
TOTAL (RUN OF RIVER)
HYDRO TOTAL
68
TOTAL
INSTALLED
CAPACITY
(MW)
GROSS
AVERAGE
FIRM
GENERATION
(GWh)
(GWh)
(GWh)
0.4
1.1
0.8
0.1
0.4
0.3
1.6
0.1
0.4
0.4
1.4
3.6
14.4
0.1
0.1
0.5
0.6
4.5
74.5
0.3
0.8
4.6
0.8
0.3
1.1
0.3
3.0
10.8
0.3
1.3
0.3
1.0
18.6
0.3
1.0
0.2
70.0
56.0
0.4
0.5
2.6
26.4
6.0
0.8
2.8
0.2
0.4
0.5
1.2
19.1
0.9
0.4
0.2
0.1
6.8
0.4
0.6
0.6
0.3
6.0
0.8
0.6
3.3
0.0
4.8
0.7
6.9
0.3
1.0
1.3
3.1
16.9
30.9
0.1
0.9
0.6
0.7
0.0
301.8
0.3
3.4
8.0
2.1
0.7
0.0
1.4
20.3
58.6
0.8
0.0
1.7
0.0
126.1
2.0
1.0
0.7
166.6
109.3
0.0
2.3
9.4
170.4
0.0
0.1
7.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
4.4
84.2
3.5
0.9
0.0
0.0
35.0
1.5
0.0
3.1
0.0
5.9
2.0
1.0
3.0
0.0
1.0
0.0
6.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
4.0
20.0
42.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
2.0
14.0
314.0
1.0
3.0
14.0
2.0
2.0
1.0
1.0
17.0
70.0
2.0
3.0
1.0
2.5
110.0
2.0
4.0
2.0
345.0
320.0
1.0
3.0
7.0
169.0
21.0
3.0
12.0
0.5
2.0
1.0
3.0
78.0
0.0
3.0
0.5
1.0
50.0
2.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
21.0
1.0
0.0
2.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
6.0
0.0
0.0
1.0
0.0
12.0
32.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.0
5.0
62.0
0.0
2.0
12.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
0.0
15.0
60.0
0.0
1.0
1.0
0.0
100.0
1.0
0.0
1.0
190.0
200.0
0.0
3.0
6.0
130.0
0.0
0.0
10.0
0.0
1.0
0.0
2.0
48.0
0.0
1.0
0.0
0.0
35.0
2.0
0.0
1.0
0.0
19.0
353.3
1206.3
1698.5
966.0
11109.7
35049.1
39825.4
30939.0
GENERATION COMPANIES (2005 Temporary)
PROJECT GENERATION
NO NAME OF THE PLANT
1
2
3
4
Ova Elektrik
Esenyurt
Trakya Elek.
Unimar Marmara Ereğlisi
TYPE
LOCATION
(PROVINCE)
N.Gas
N.Gas+Liquid
N.Gas+Liquid
N.Gas+Liquid
Kocaeli
İstanbul
Tekirdağ
Tekirdağ
BOT
BUILT-OPERATE-TRANSFER
Total (N.Gas)
Total (N.Gas+Liquid)
THERMAL TOTAL
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
Çamlıca
Kısık
Birecik
Gönen
Hasanlar
Suçatı
Yamula
Ahiköy I
Ahiköy II
Berdan
Çal
Çayköy
Dinar II
Fethiye
Gaziler
Girlevik 2-Mercan
Sütçüler
Tohma Medik
Run of River
Run of River
Dam
Dam
Dam
Dam
Dam
Canal
Canal
Canal
Canal
Canal
Canal
Canal
Canal
Canal
Canal
Canal
Kayseri
K.Maraş
Ş.Urfa
Balıkesir
Bolu
K.Maraş
Kayseri
Sivas
Sivas
İçel
Denizli
Burdur
Afyon
Muğla
Kars
Erzincan
Isparta
Malatya
HYDRO TOTAL
1 Ares (Alaçatı)
2 Bores
Wind
Wind
İzmir
Çanakkale
GROSS
GENERATION
(GWh)
AVERAGE
(GWh)
FIRM
(GWh)
258.4
188.5
498.7
504.0
1852.6
1356.4
3654.5
3728.7
1938.0
1413.8
3740.3
3780.0
1938.0
1413.8
3740.3
3780.0
258.4
1191.2
1449.6
1852.6
8739.6
10592.2
1938.0
8934.0
10872.0
1938.0
8934.0
10872.0
84.0
9.6
672.0
10.6
9.6
7.0
100.0
2.1
2.1
10.0
2.5
16.0
3.0
16.5
11.2
11.0
2.3
12.5
288.4
27.9
2352.8
43.0
42.2
25.3
226.7
6.5
7.2
20.0
7.8
21.5
7.4
66.6
26.6
29.7
5.9
44.5
429.0
35.0
2518.0
47.0
42.0
28.0
422.0
11.0
11.0
47.0
13.0
36.0
16.0
90.0
50.0
42.0
12.0
59.0
243.0
0.0
1801.0
26.0
15.0
8.0
345.0
0.0
0.0
10.0
1.0
35.0
5.0
27.0
21.0
21.0
2.0
0.0
982.0
3250.0
3908.0
2560.0
7.2
10.2
17.0
36.1
25.2
35.7
18.0
25.5
17.4
53.1
60.9
43.5
2449.0
13895.3
14840.9
13475.5
1595.4
797.7
798.0
1590.7
1320.0
10930.1
5540.0
5566.6
11057.3
8716.3
13295.5
6647.8
6500.0
12946.0
9315.0
13295.5
6647.8
6500.0
12946.0
9315.0
Total (N.Gas)
Total (Imported Coal)
THERMAL TOTAL
4781.8
1320.0
6101.8
33094.0
8716.3
41810.3
39389.3
9315.0
48704.3
39389.3
9315.0
48704.3
BO TOTAL
6101.8
41810.3
48704.3
48704.3
WIND TOTAL
BOT TOTAL
BO
BUILT-OPERATE
TOTAL
INSTALLED
CAPACITY
(MW)
1
2
3
4
5
Gebze
Adapazarı
Ankara (Baymina)
İzmir
İskenderun (İsken)
N.Gas
N.Gas
N.Gas
N.Gas
Imported Coal
Adapazarı
Adapazarı
Ankara
İzmir
Hatay
69
GENERATION COMPANIES (2005 Temporary)
NO NAME OF THE PLANT
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
Aksa
Ak Enerji (Alaplı)
Ak Enerji (Batı Çim)
Ak Enerji (Bozüyük)
Ak Enerji (Çerkezköy)
Ak Enerji (Çorlu) Me-Bal
Ak Enerji (Deba )
Ak Enerji (Gürsu)
Ak Enerji (Orhangazi)
Ak Enerji (Uşak)
Ak Enerji (Yalova-Akal)
Ak Enerji (Yalova-Aksa)
Camiş Elektrik(Çayırova)
Camiş Elektrik(Topkapı)
Camiş Elektrik(Trakya)
Entek Bursa
Nuh Enerji 1
Nuh Enerji 2
Bis Enerji
Çebi Enerji
Çelik Enerji
Entek Köseköy
Karege (Arges)
Zorlu Enerji (Sincan ASO 1 OSB)
Zorlu Enerji(Bursa)
Zorlu Enerji(Lüleburgaz)
Ak Enerji (Kemal paşa)
Altek Alarko
Ayen Ostim Enerji
Berk Enerji (Besler-Kurtköy)
Can Enerji
Entek Koç Üniversitesi
Metem Enerji (Hacışıramat)
Metem Enerji (Peliklik)
Noren Enerji
Zorlu Enerji (Kayseri)
Zorlu Enerji (Yalova)
Karkey (Silopi 1)
Karkey (Silopi 3)
Karkey (Silopi 4)
Karkey PS3-2 (Silopi 2)
PS3-A1 (İdil Enerji)
Sanko
TYPE
LOCATION
(PROVINCE)
Biogas
N.Gas+Liquid
N.Gas+Liquid
N.Gas+Liquid
N.Gas+Liquid
N.Gas+Liquid
N.Gas+Liquid
N.Gas+Liquid
N.Gas+Liquid
N.Gas+Liquid
N.Gas+Liquid
N.Gas+Liquid
N.Gas+Liquid
N.Gas+Liquid
N.Gas+Liquid
N.Gas+Liquid
N.Gas+Liquid
N.Gas
N.Gas
N.Gas
N.Gas
N.Gas
N.Gas
N.Gas
N.Gas
N.Gas
N.Gas
N.Gas
N.Gas
N.Gas
N.Gas
N.Gas
N.Gas
N.Gas
N.Gas
N.Gas
N.Gas
Fuel-Oil
Fuel-Oil
Fuel-Oil
Fuel-Oil
Fuel-Oil
Fuel-Oil
Bursa
Zonguldak
İzmir
Bilecik
Tekirdağ
Tekirdağ
Denizli
Bursa
Bursa
Uşak
Yalova
Yalova
Kocaeli
İstanbul
Kırklareli
Bursa
Kocaeli
Kocaeli
Bursa
Tekirdağ
Kocaeli
Kocaeli
İzmir
Ankara
Bursa
Kırklareli
İzmir
Kırklareli
Ankara
İstanbul
Tekirdağ
İstanbul
Tekirdağ
Tekirdağ
Niğde
Kayseri
Yalova
Şırnak
Şırnak
Şırnak
Şırnak
Şırnak
Kilis
Total (N.Gas)
Total (N.Gas+Liquid)
Total (Fuel-Oil)
Total (Biogas)
THERMAL TOTAL
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Hacılar I-II
Pamuk HES
Bir Kapılı
Elta Elek. (Dodurga HES)
Bereket (Denizli)HES I-II
Bereket (Feslek)
Bereket (Dalaman)HES II-V
Eşen
Tektuğ (Kargılık)
İçtaş Enerji(Yukarı Mercan)
Run of River
Run of River
Run of River
Run of River
Run of River
Run of River
Run of River
Run of River
Run of River
Run of River
Malatya
İçel
İçel
Denizli
Denizli
Aydın
Muğla
Muğla
K.Maraş
Erzincan
HYDRO TOTAL
GENERATION COMPANY TOTAL
GRAND TOTAL
THERMAL
HYDRO
WIND
GENERATION COMPANY
70
TOTAL
INSTALLED
CAPACITY
GROSS
GENERATION
(GWh)
PROJECT GENERATION
AVERAGE
FIRM
(GWh)
(GWh)
1.4
6.3
45.0
126.6
98.0
10.4
15.6
15.6
5.1
15.2
10.4
59.5
12.2
12.2
32.9
135.1
38.0
47.0
290.7
64.4
2.4
60.1
44.3
50.3
90.0
65.8
127.2
60.1
41.0
23.1
3.9
2.3
7.8
11.7
8.7
188.5
15.9
45.5
34.1
33.2
30.5
11.4
25.2
11.0
30.1
249.5
682.0
510.0
47.4
35.6
72.9
26.6
67.7
55.1
310.0
68.3
67.7
179.4
1089.2
415.3
6.6
1913.2
126.8
17.0
471.7
328.4
366.4
651.8
411.1
234.7
16.0
323.0
140.6
4.8
10.9
60.0
65.0
8.0
328.6
9.8
224.4
343.5
0.0
96.2
17.4
39.6
10.5
47.3
337.4
949.2
784.0
78.0
117.0
117.0
38.1
114.6
78.0
446.3
91.5
91.5
246.6
1035.7
285.0
319.7
2268.5
505.0
18.6
450.7
197.3
377.3
675.1
493.6
817.0
420.0
348.1
175.7
28.0
19.0
58.0
89.0
70.0
1439.0
122.0
341.3
231.5
237.3
210.9
85.5
189.0
10.5
47.3
337.4
949.2
784.0
78.0
117.0
117.0
38.1
114.6
78.0
446.3
91.5
91.5
246.6
1035.7
285.0
319.7
2268.5
505.0
18.6
450.7
197.3
377.3
675.1
493.6
817.0
420.0
348.1
175.7
28.0
19.0
58.0
89.0
70.0
1439.0
122.0
341.3
231.5
237.3
210.9
85.5
189.0
1205.4
638.1
179.9
1.4
2024.7
5494.4
3906.8
721.1
11.0
10133.3
8891.6
4857.3
1295.5
10.5
15054.9
8891.6
4857.3
1295.5
10.5
15054.9
13.3
23.3
48.5
4.1
3.7
9.5
37.5
43.4
23.9
14.2
86.6
49.9
34.4
5.2
12.6
23.4
102.9
83.1
33.7
28.9
84.0
81.0
170.6
12.3
12.0
41.0
195.8
203.0
83.0
44.0
0.0
23.0
16.6
0.0
0.0
25.0
68.0
0.0
19.0
20.0
221.5
460.7
926.7
171.6
2246.2
10594.0
15981.6
15226.5
9576.1
1203.5
17.4
10797.0
62535.8
3710.7
53.1
66299.6
74631.2
4834.7
60.9
79526.8
74631.2
2731.6
43.5
77406.3
EÜAŞ AFFILIATED PARTNERSHIPS, PLANTS WITHIN PRIVATIZATION
PROGRAM, MOBILE AND PLANTS UNDER TRANSFER OF OPERATIONAL
RIGHT CONTRACT
(2005 Temporary)
NO
EÜAŞ AFFILIATED
PARTNERSHIP
WITHIN
PRIVATIZATION
PROGRAM
MOBILE PLANTS
NAME OF THE
PLANT
TYPE
TOTAL
INSTALLED
CAPACITY (MW)
GROSS
AVERAGE
GENERATION
FIRM (GWh)
(GWh)
(GWh)
1 Hamitabat NG CC
NATURAL GAS TOTAL
N. Gas
Kırklareli
1120.0
1120.0
1416.7
1416.7
7280.0
7280.0
7280.0
7280.0
2 Soma A
3 Soma B
LIGNITE TOTAL
Lignite
Lignite
Manisa
Manisa
44.0
990.0
1034.0
74.0
3810.7
3884.7
290.0
6435.0
6725.0
290.0
6435.0
6725.0
THERMAL TOTAL
1 Kemerköy 1,2,3
2 Yatağan
3 Yeniköy
Lignite
Lignite
Lignite
Muğla
Muğla
Muğla
2154.0
630.0
630.0
420.0
5301.4
1488.6
3344.0
1698.4
14005.0
4095.0
4100.0
2730.0
14005.0
4095.0
4100.0
2730.0
THERMAL TOTAL
1 BATMAN
2 ESENBOĞA
3 HAKKARİ 2
4 ISPARTA
5 KIRIKKALE
6 KIZILTEPE
7 PS3 A- 2
PS3-2
8 SAMSUN 1 I-VII
9 SAMSUN 2 I-VII
10 SİİRT
11 VAN 2
Fuel-Oil
Fuel-Oil
Fuel-Oil
Fuel-Oil
Fuel-Oil
Fuel-Oil
Fuel-Oil
Fuel-Oil
Fuel-Oil
Fuel-Oil
Fuel-Oil
Fuel-Oil
Batman
Ankara
Hakkari
Isparta
Kırıkkale
Mardin
Şırnak
Şırnak
Samsun
Samsun
Siirt
Van
1680.0
117.9
53.8
24.8
27.9
153.9
34.1
24.4
10925.0
876.0
361.0
186.1
209.3
1139.0
255.4
183.2
10925.0
876.0
361.0
186.1
209.3
1139.0
255.4
183.2
131.3
131.3
25.6
24.7
6531.0
63.2
29.0
124.0
30.7
100.7
114.7
93.2
60.1
0.0
0.0
119.6
120.1
876.0
876.0
192.2
185.7
876.0
876.0
192.2
185.7
749.7
620.0
30.1
855.3
4058.3
63.7
5339.7
4030.0
50.0
5339.7
4030.0
0.0
620.0
4058.3
4030.0
4030.0
30.1
63.7
50.0
0.0
650.1
4122.0
4080.0
4030.0
THERMAL TOTAL
1 Park Termik (Çayırhan I-IV Lignite
2 Bilgin Elek.(Hazar 1,2)
Dam
TRANSFER OF
OPERATIONAL
RIGHT
LOCATION
(PROVINCE)
Ankara
Elazığ
THERMAL TOTAL
HYDRO TOTAL
TOTAL
71
AUTOPRODUCERS (2005 Temporary)
NAME OF THE PLANT
AKBAŞLAR
AKÇA ENERJİ
AKIN TEKSTİL
AKSEN ENERJİ
AKTEKS
ALBAYRAK TURİZM (SEKA BALIKESİR)
ALKİM ALKALİ KİMYA (DAZKIRI)
ALKİM KAĞIT (KEMALPAŞA)
ALTIN YILDIZ
ALTINMARKA GIDA
AMYLUM NİŞASTA
ANADOLU EFES BİRA
ARÇELİK (ÇAYIROVA)
ARÇELİK (ESKİŞEHİR)
ARENKO
ATAER ENERJİ
ATAŞ (MERSİN) RAFİNERİ
ATATEKS
ATLAS HALICILIK
AYKA TEKSTİL
BAĞFAŞ
BAHARİYE MENSUCAT
BANDIRMA S. ASİT
BANDIRMA BORAKS
BAYDEMİRLER
BELKA
BEY ENERJİ
BİL ENERJİ
BİRKO
BİRLİK ENERJİ
BOR ŞEKER
BOSEN
CAN TEKSTİL
COGNİS KİMYA
ÇIRAĞAN
ÇOLAKOĞLU METALURJİ
DENİZLİ ÇİMENTO
DENTAŞ
DESA
DOĞUŞ
ECZACIBAŞI - BAXTER
EDİP İPLİK
EGE BİRLEŞİK ENERJİ
EMET BOR
ENERJİSA (ADANA)
ENERJİSA (ÇANAKKALE)
ENERJİSA (KENTSA)
ENERJİSA (MERSİN)
ERDEMİR
ESKİŞEHİR END.ENERJİ
ETİ ALÜMİNYUM
EVYAP
INSTALLED
CAPACITY
(MW)
LOCATION
(PROVINCE)
BURSA
DENİZLİ
KIRKLARELİ
GAZİANTEP
GAZİANTEP
BALIKESİR
AFYON
İZMİR
İSTANBUL
İSTANBUL
ADANA
ANKARA
KOCAELİ
ESKİŞEHİR
DENİZLİ
İZMİR
İÇEL
TEKİRDAĞ
TEKİRDAĞ
TEKİRDAĞ
BALIKESİR
İSTANBUL
BALIKESİR
BALIKESİR
İSTANBUL
ANKARA
TEKİRDAĞ
ANKARA
ANKARA
DENİZLİ
NİĞDE
BURSA
ÇORLU
İZMİR
İSTANBUL
KOCAELİ
DENİZLİ
DENİZLİ
İZMİR
TEKİRDAĞ
İSTANBUL
KIRKLARELİ
İZMİR
KÜTAHYA
ADANA
ÇANAKKALE
KOCAELİ
İÇEL
ZONGULDAK
ESKİŞEHİR
KONYA
İSTANBUL
12.8
18.7
4.9
21.1
13.0
9.3
3.4
5.2
4.7
3.6
6.2
3.8
6.5
6.3
12.7
70.3
9.4
5.6
1.0
5.5
10.0
1.0
11.5
10.7
9.3
3.2
5.0
36.6
11.5
37.0
10.1
131.0
5.2
1.0
1.4
313.4
13.6
5.0
10.6
1.0
1.0
4.9
12.8
10.4
130.2
64.1
120.0
64.5
155.0
59.0
11.9
5.1
72
GROSS
GENERATION
(GWh)
0.0
62.5
36.4
1.2
15.3
0.0
21.1
39.0
35.8
0.0
0.0
15.7
35.5
33.4
70.2
440.1
0.0
43.5
6.3
7.4
32.2
0.0
41.6
48.5
55.8
23.7
23.3
221.2
37.0
66.4
11.0
671.8
37.5
0.0
7.5
2,573.6
31.8
33.0
65.6
0.0
4.1
36.5
92.5
36.9
664.6
435.9
786.7
304.3
1,167.1
335.2
0.0
0.0
AVERAGE
(GWh)
101.4
140.4
39.0
158.4
97.5
69.8
25.4
39.0
35.3
28.8
46.5
28.8
48.8
47.2
95.3
527.2
46.9
45.0
7.7
40.0
75.0
7.0
85.0
80.0
73.9
24.0
37.6
274.4
86.4
277.5
25.2
957.2
39.0
7.5
11.0
2,412.2
102.1
37.5
84.4
7.5
5.8
36.6
96.2
78.0
925.9
481.2
920.0
484.6
1,162.5
472.2
59.5
30.0
FIRM
(GWh)
101.4
140.4
39.0
158.4
97.5
69.8
25.4
39.0
35.3
28.8
46.5
28.8
48.8
47.2
95.3
527.2
46.9
45.0
7.7
40.0
75.0
7.0
85.0
80.0
73.9
24.0
37.6
274.4
86.4
277.5
25.2
957.2
39.0
7.5
11.0
2,412.2
102.1
37.5
84.4
7.5
5.8
36.6
96.2
78.0
925.9
481.2
920.0
484.6
1,162.5
472.2
59.5
30.0
NAME OF THE PLANT
GAP İNŞAAT (SEKA ÇAY)
GOODYEAR (ADAPAZARI)
GOODYEAR (İZMİT)
GÜL ENERJİ
GÜLLE TEKSTİL
GRANİSER GRANİT
HABAŞ (ALİAĞA - DİZEL)
HABAŞ (ALİAĞA-D.GAZ KÇ)
HABAŞ (BİLECİK)
HALKALI KAĞIT
HAYAT KİMYA
HAYAT KAĞIT
ISPARTA MENSUCAT
İ.B.B. HASDAL LFG
İÇDAŞ ÇELİK
İGSAŞ
İSDEMİR
İSKO
İSTANBUL ELYAF
İZAYDAŞ
KAHRAMANMARAŞ KAĞIT
KALESERAMİK
KARDEMİR
KAREN
KARTONSAN
KIRKA BOR
KOMBASSAN KONYA
KOMBASSAN TEKİRDAĞ
KONYA ŞEKER
KORUMA KLOR
KÜÇÜKÇALIK TEKSTİL
MAKSİ ENERJİ
MARMARA KAĞIT
MED UNION
MENSA
MERCEDES BENZ
MİLDA KAĞIT (SEKA AKSU)
MODERN ENERJİ
MOPAK DALAMAN
MOPAK KEMALPAŞA
MOSB
NUR YILDIZ
ORS RULMAN
ORTA ANADOLU MENSUCAT
OYKA (SEKA ÇAYCUMA)
ÖZAKIM
PAK GIDA (DÜZCE)
PAK GIDA (KEMALPAŞA)
PAKMAYA
PETKİM ALİAĞA
PETLAS
POLİNAS
LOCATION
(PROVINCE)
AFYON
ADAPAZARI
KOCAELİ
GAZİANTEP
TEKİRDAĞ
MANİSA
İZMİR
İZMİR
BİLECİK
İSTANBUL
İSTANBUL
ÇORUM
ISPARTA
İSTANBUL
ÇANAKKALE
KOCAELİ
HATAY
BURSA
İSTANBUL
KOCAELİ
KAHRAMANMARAŞ
ÇANAKKALE
ZONGULDAK
K.MARAŞ
KOCAELİ
ESKİŞEHİR
KONYA
TEKİRDAĞ
KONYA
İZMİT
BURSA
İSTANBUL
BİLECİK
İZMİR
ADANA
İSTANBUL
GİRESUN
TEKİRDAĞ
MUĞLA
İZMİR
MANİSA
TEKİRDAĞ
ANKARA
KAYSERİ
ZONGULDAK
BURSA
DÜZCE
İZMİR
KOCAELİ
İZMİR
KIRŞEHİR
MANİSA
73
INSTALLED
GROSS
CAPACITY GENERATION
(MW)
(GWh)
8.0
0.0
9.6
72.2
4.2
36.7
25.0
103.3
6.3
39.5
5.5
0.0
36.0
24.8
201.5
932.3
18.0
11.2
5.1
40.4
5.2
34.3
7.5
23.6
10.7
22.1
4.0
4.0
135.0
0.0
11.0
61.0
220.4
758.1
9.2
57.3
12.3
38.8
5.2
11.2
6.0
0.0
21.6
159.4
35.0
237.6
24.3
105.6
24.0
126.7
8.2
46.7
5.5
34.3
5.5
38.8
17.4
28.6
9.6
0.0
8.0
0.0
7.7
51.8
2.0
7.2
3.4
0.0
10.4
30.6
8.3
21.3
8.0
2.4
87.2
513.2
26.2
20.1
4.6
17.8
84.8
343.0
1.4
5.6
7.4
52.0
10.0
66.0
10.0
4.3
7.0
32.4
6.9
39.9
5.7
0.0
6.9
30.1
170.0
732.0
6.0
0.0
10.0
10.2
AVERAGE
FIRM
(GWh)
(GWh)
60.0
60.0
72.0
72.0
31.5
31.5
190.3
190.3
47.3
47.3
42.0
42.0
270.0
270.0
1,611.7
1,611.7
135.0
135.0
38.3
38.3
39.0
39.0
56.0
56.0
80.3
80.3
30.0
30.0
1,080.0
1,080.0
82.5
82.5
1,653.0
1,653.0
69.0
69.0
92.3
92.3
39.0
39.0
45.0
45.0
167.2
167.2
190.0
190.0
182.6
182.6
179.8
179.8
41.0
41.0
35.7
35.7
38.1
38.1
43.4
43.4
77.0
77.0
64.0
64.0
57.8
57.8
8.0
8.0
25.4
25.4
78.0
78.0
68.0
68.0
60.0
60.0
636.3
636.3
196.5
196.5
34.1
34.1
434.0
434.0
10.2
10.2
58.9
58.9
75.0
75.0
75.0
75.0
52.5
52.5
51.5
51.5
45.0
45.0
51.5
51.5
1,275.0
1,275.0
45.0
45.0
75.0
75.0
NAME OF THE PLANT
INSTALLED
GROSS
CAPACITY GENERATION
(MW)
(GWh)
7.4
18.2
7.7
54.2
20.0
13.2
18.0
0.0
2.1
0.0
4.5
19.7
4.1
29.1
6.7
17.8
17.3
16.6
3.0
0.0
1.8
0.0
6.3
0.0
26.0
156.4
4.7
25.2
2.2
16.1
4.6
33.7
3.7
12.6
8.0
30.7
9.0
65.8
4.7
10.2
12.1
21.3
4.2
0.0
1.4
3.8
5.7
24.3
20.6
20.2
44.0
319.7
45.0
305.2
24.0
78.8
1.6
0.0
5.2
38.7
8.0
0.0
9.7
78.4
7.8
45.8
1.2
0.1
731.3
241.2
475.1
3,473.0
16,399.3
LOCATION
(PROVINCE)
SAMUR
SARKUYSAN
SEKA AKDENİZ
SEKA İZMİT
SİEMENS
SÖKTAŞ
SÖNMEZ FLAMENT
STANDART PROFİL OTOMOTİV
STARWOOD
SÜMER ADANA
SÜMER ESKİŞEHİR
SÜMER MERİNOS
ŞAHİNLER
TANRIVERDİ DOKUMA
TEKBOY TEKSTİL
TERMAL ENERJİ
TEZCAN GALVANİZ
TİRE KUTSAN
TOPRAK ENERJİ
TOROS ENERJİ (CEYHAN)
TOROS ENERJİ (MERSİN)
TRAKYA İPLİK
TÜBAŞ
TÜP MERSERİZE
TÜPRAŞ BATMAN RAFİNERİ
TÜPRAŞ İZMİR RAFİNERİ
TÜPRAŞ İZMİT RAFİNERİ
TÜPRAŞ KIRIKKALE RAFİNERİ
TÜRK HENKEL KİMYA SAN.
YILDIZ SUNTA
YILFERT (TÜGSAŞ GEMLİK)
YONGAPAN (KASTAMONU ENTEGRE)
YURTBAY
ZEYNEP GİYİM SANAYİ
ÜRETİM ŞİRKETİ'NE GEÇEN
İZOLE
THERMAL TOTAL
ANKARA
KOCAELİ
İÇEL
KOCAELİ
İSTANBUL
AYDIN
BURSA
DÜZCE
BURSA
ADANA
ESKİŞEHİR
BURSA
TEKİRDAĞ
TEKİRDAĞ
KIRKLARELİ
BİLECİK
İZMİT
İZMİR
ESKİŞEHİR
ADANA
İÇEL
TEKİRDAĞ
TEKİRDAĞ
TEKİRDAĞ
BATMAN
İZMİR
KOCAELİ
KIRIKKALE
İZMİR
KOCAELİ
BURSA
KASTAMONU
ESKİŞEHİR
TEKİRDAĞ
BAĞCI SU ÜRÜNLERİ
İŞKUR TEKSTİL
KAREL ENERJİ (PAMUKOVA)
MOLU
MURGUL BAKIR
OYMAPINAR
YEŞİLLİLER
OTOP. HİDROLİK TOPLAM
MUĞLA
K.MARAŞ
SAKARYA
KAYSERİ
ARTVİN
ANTALYA
KIRŞEHİR
0.3
4.6
9.3
3.4
4.7
540.0
0.5
562.8
DELTA PLASTİK
SUNJÜT
WIND TOTAL
İZMİR
İSTANBUL
1.5
1.2
2.7
4,038.5
GRAND TOTAL
74
AVERAGE
FIRM
(GWh)
(GWh)
55.2
55.2
57.7
57.7
150.0
150.0
135.0
135.0
15.8
15.8
36.0
36.0
30.9
30.9
49.2
49.2
129.9
129.9
15.0
15.0
9.0
9.0
31.5
31.5
199.4
199.4
38.7
38.7
16.0
16.0
34.5
34.5
29.0
29.0
60.0
60.0
67.5
67.5
35.6
35.6
91.2
91.2
31.5
31.5
10.2
10.2
45.6
45.6
56.5
56.5
330.0
330.0
242.3
242.3
180.0
180.0
8.0
8.0
39.0
39.0
60.0
60.0
66.8
66.8
58.4
58.4
9.0
9.0
633.3
24,378.4
633.3
24,378.4
0.0
15.8
38.5
11.7
8.1
760.5
0.0
834.6
3.0
17.9
42.0
22.0
9.0
1,620.0
1.0
1,714.9
1.0
4.4
7.0
11.0
5.0
482.0
0.0
510.4
3.5
3.5
5.3
2.4
7.7
3.8
2.0
5.8
17,237.4
26,100.9
24,894.6
ANNEX – 2 : POWER PLANTS CONNECTED TO THE SYSTEM IN 2005
NAME OF THE PLANT
METEM ENERJİ(Peliklik) GR I-II-III
UNIT
CAPACITY
(MW)
UTILITY
FUEL TYPE
COMMISSIONING
DATE
11.75 GENERATION COMPANY
NATURAL GAS
29.01.2005
METEM ENERJİ(Hacışıramat) GR I-II
NATURAL GAS
29.01.2005
MERCEDES BENZ TURK GR I-II-III-IV
8.28 AUTOPRODUCER
NATURAL GAS
04.02.2005
BAYDEMİRLER GR IV-V-VI
6.21 AUTOPRODUCER
NATURAL GAS
04.02.2005
ENTEK ELK.A.Ş.KOÇ ÜNİ.GR I-II
NATURAL GAS
07.02.2005
ELBİSTAN-B GR I
360.00 EÜAŞ
LIGNITE
15.02.2005
ÇAN GR I
160.00 EÜAŞ
LIGNITE
15.02.2005
ÇAN GR II
160.00 EÜAŞ
LIGNITE
15.03.2005
BİS ENERJİ GR VII
NATURAL GAS
18.03.2005
KAREGE GR IV-V
NATURAL GAS
07.04.2005
SUNJÜT(RES) GR I-II
1.20 AUTOPRODUCER
WIND
22.04.2005
AK ENERJİ(K.paşa) GR I-II
NATURAL GAS
30.04.2005
NUH ENERJİ-2 GR I
NATURAL GAS
24.05.2005
YONGAPAN(KAST.ENTG) GR-II
5.20 AUTOPRODUCER
NATURAL GAS
25.05.2005
TEZCAN GALVANİZ GR I-II
3.66 AUTOPRODUCER
NATURAL GAS
27.05.2005
HAYAT KAĞIT GR-I
7.53 AUTOPRODUCER
NATURAL GAS
27.05.2005
44.62 AUTOPRODUCER
NATURAL GAS
02.06.2005
HABAŞ ALİAĞA GR III
MODERN ENERJİ(DG+LPG)(DÜZELTME)
4.50 AUTOPRODUCER
NATURAL GAS+LPG
13.06.2005
MODERN ENERJİ(DG+LPG)GR-II
7.68 AUTOPRODUCER
STEAM
13.06.2005
MODERN ENERJİ(DG)(DÜZELTME)
-10.32 AUTOPRODUCER
NATURAL GAS
14.06.2005
STEAM
14.06.2005
MODERN ENERJİ(DG) GR-III
8.38 AUTOPRODUCER
AKBAŞLAR GR-II(İZOLE)
9.00 AUTOPRODUCER
NATURAL GAS
24.06.2005
KARKEY(SİLOPİ-4) GR-IV
FUEL-OIL
30.06.2005
1.17 AUTOPRODUCER
NATURAL GAS
07.07.2005
EXHAUST HEAT
15.07.2005
ZEYNEP GİYİM SAN. GR-I
ETİ MAD.(BAN.ASİT)(SÖKÜLDÜ)
ETİ MAD.(BAN.ASİT)GR-I
ZORLU ENERJİ KAYSERİ GR-I-II-III
ÇEBİ ENERJİ GT
-3.80 AUTOPRODUCER
EXHAUST HEAT
15.07.2005
11.50 AUTOPRODUCER
NATURAL GAS
22.07.2005
NATURAL GAS
23.08.2005
NOREN ENERJİ GR-I
NATURAL GAS
24.08.2005
CAN ENERJİ GR-I
NATURAL GAS
25.08.2005
ÇEBİ ENERJİ BT
STEAM
27.08.2005
EVYAP GR I-II
HABAŞ ALİAĞA GR IV
AYKA TEKSTİL GR-I
5.12 AUTOPRODUCER
NATURAL GAS
27.08.2005
44.62 AUTOPRODUCER
NATURAL GAS
21.09.2005
NATURAL GAS
24.09.2005
ALTEK ALARKO GR I-II
5.50 AUTOPRODUCER
NATURAL GAS
14.10.2005
ZORLU ENERJİ KAYSERİ GR-IV
STEAM
26.10.2005
AK ENERJİ(K.paşa) GR- III
STEAM
09.11.2005
MOSB GR I-II-III(SÖKÜLDÜ)
-54.30 AUTOPRODUCER
MOSB GR I-II-III-IV-V-VI-VII
GRANİSER GRANİT GR-I
FUEL-OIL
11.11.2005
84.83 AUTOPRODUCER
NATURAL GAS
11.11.2005
5.50 AUTOPRODUCER
NATURAL GAS
14.11.2005
HABAŞ ALİAĞA GR-V
23.00 AUTOPRODUCER
STEAM
24.11.2005
ZORLU ENERJİ YALOVA GR I-II
NATURAL GAS
26.11.2005
NATURAL GAS
27.11.2005
KÜÇÜKÇALIK TEKSTİL GR I-II-III-IV
İÇDAŞ ÇELİK GR-I
8.00 AUTOPRODUCER
135.00 AUTOPRODUCER
IMPORTED COAL
30.11.2005
KORUMA KLOR GR I-II-III
9.60 AUTOPRODUCER
NATURAL GAS
03.12.2005
07.12.2005
PAK GIDA(Kemalpaşa) GR-I
5.67 AUTOPRODUCER
NATURAL GAS
KAHRAMANMARAŞ KAĞIT GR-I
6.00 AUTOPRODUCER
IMPORTED COAL
08.12.2005
AKÇA ENERJİ GR-III
8.73 AUTOPRODUCER
NATURAL GAS+NAPHTA
14.12.2005
FUEL-OIL
23.12.2005
NATURAL GAS
30.12.2005
KARKEY(SİLOPİ-4) GR-V
BOSEN GR-III
THERMAL TOTAL
51.02 AUTOPRODUCER
1,735.35
TEKTUĞ(Kargılık) GR I-II
HYDRO-DAM
24.04.2005
İÇTAŞ ENERJİ(Yukarı Mercan) GR I-II
HYDRO-RIVER
21.05.2005
MURATLI GR I-II
BEREKET EN.(DALAMAN) GR XIII-XIV-XV
115.00 EÜAŞ
YAMULA GRUP I-II
100.00 BOT
HYDRO TOTAL
260.59
GRANDT TOTAL
1,995.94
75
HYDRO-DAM
02.06.2005
HYDRO-RIVER
15.07.2005
HYDRO-DAM
30.07.2005
ANNEX-3 : POWER PLANTS EXPECTED TO BE IN SERVICE BETWEEN 20062011 UNDER CONSTRUCTION AND GRANTED BY LICENCE
(According to May 2006 Progress Report Published by EPDK)
YEAR
NAME OF THE PLANT
FUEL
TYPE
TOTAL
PROJECT
FIRM
INSTALLED
CAPACITY (MW)
(GWh)
(GWh)
2006
EÜAŞ
EPDK
EPDK
EPDK
EPDK
ELBİSTAN B 2-4
GRANTED BY LICENCE
GRANTED BY LICENCE
GRANTED BY LICENCE
GRANTED BY LICENCE
LIGNITE
LIGNITE
COAL
F.OIL
N.GAS
THERMAL TOTAL
EPDK
EPDK
EPDK
EPDK
GRANTED BY LICENCE
GRANTED BY LICENCE
GRANTED BY LICENCE
GRANTED BY LICENCE
BIOGAS
WASTE
GEOTH.
WIND
RENEWABLE TOTAL
DSİ
EPDK
ŞANLI URFA
GRANTED BY LICENCE
HYDRO
HYDRO
HYDRO TOTAL
TOTAL
1080.0
4.0
136.8
60.0
505.9
7020.0
27.5
948.0
437.1
3729.6
5866.0
27.5
948.0
338.2
3707.8
1786.7
12162.2
10887.5
0.3
1.0
14.8
30.7
2.9
6.2
94.0
106.9
2.9
6.2
94.0
96.3
46.8
210.0
199.4
51.0
78.8
124.0
277.0
124.0
191.1
129.8
401.0
315.1
1963.3
12773.2
11402.0
260.2
1902.1
1762.1
260.2
1902.1
1762.1
15.0
207.5
110.2
668.2
110.2
565.3
222.5
778.4
675.5
300.0
160.0
103.0
10.0
68.7
1039.0
488.0
322.0
65.0
279.1
600.0
418.0
131.0
39.0
57.4
641.7
2193.1
1245.4
1124.4
4873.6
3683.0
2007
EPDK
GRANTED BY LICENCE
N.GAS
THERMAL TOTAL
EPDK
EPDK
GRANTED BY LICENCE
GRANTED BY LICENCE
WASTE
WIND
RENEWABLE TOTAL
DSİ
DSİ
DSİ
DSİ
EPDK
BORÇKA
ALPASLAN-I
TORUL
KUMKÖY
GRANTED BY LICENCE
HYDRO
HYDRO
HYDRO
HYDRO
HYDRO
HYDRO TOTAL
TOTAL
76
YEAR
NAME OF THE PLANT
FUEL
TYPE
TOTAL
INSTALLED
CAPACITY
(MW)
PROJECT
FIRM
(GWh)
(GWh)
2008
EPDK
GRANTED BY LICENCE
N.GAS
92.5
585.5
585.5
92.5
585.5
585.5
52.5
90.0
241.7
440.0
183.7
396.0
142.5
681.7
579.7
200.0
115.0
57.2
70.7
29.3
38.3
407.9
473.0
343.0
100.0
317.0
88.0
123.0
1853.3
337.0
176.0
7.0
214.0
5.0
72.0
641.6
918.4
3297.3
1452.6
1153.4
4564.5
2617.8
135.0
1064.3
1064.3
135.0
1064.3
1064.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
309.0
670.0
64.8
10.0
20.3
132.0
80.0
457.9
1048.0
2118.0
200.0
20.0
59.0
548.0
203.0
1770.6
837.0
1212.0
146.0
20.0
44.0
422.0
174.0
687.2
HYDRO TOTAL
1744.0
5966.6
3542.2
TOTAL
1879.0
7030.9
4606.5
THERMAL TOTAL
EPDK
EPDK
GRANTED BY LICENCE
GRANTED BY LICENCE
GEOTH.
WIND
RENEWABLE TOTAL
DSİ
DSİ
DSİ
DSİ
DSİ
DSİ
EPDK
OBRUK
AKKÖPRÜ
KILAVUZLU
UZUNÇAYIR
CİNDERE
DİM
GRANTED BY LICENCE
HYDRO
HYDRO
HYDRO
HYDRO
HYDRO
HYDRO
HYDRO
HYDRO TOTAL
TOTAL
2009
EPDK
GRANTED BY LICENCE
COAL
THERMAL TOTAL
RENEWABLE TOTAL
DSİ
DSİ
DSİ
DSİ
DSİ
DSİ
DSİ
EPDK
ERMENEK
DERİNER
TOPÇAM
BOĞAZKÖY
MANYAS
ULUBAT-ÇINARCIK
KÖPRÜBAŞI
GRANTED BY LICENCE
HYDRO
HYDRO
HYDRO
HYDRO
HYDRO
HYDRO
HYDRO
HYDRO
77
YEAR
NAME OF THE PLANT
FUEL
TYPE
TOTAL
INSTALLED
CAPACITY
(MW)
PROJECT
FIRM
(GWh)
(GWh)
2010
EPDK
GRANTED BY LICENCE
LIGNITE
302.0
1764.7
1764.7
302.0
1764.7
1764.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
39.5
12.3
306.5
118.0
41.0
1269.6
18.0
22.0
556.8
HYDRO TOTAL
358.3
1428.6
596.8
TOTAL
660.3
3193.3
2361.5
THERMAL TOTAL
0.0
0.0
0.0
RENEWABLE TOTAL
0.0
0.0
0.0
45.0
140.0
14.4
122.4
130.0
450.0
50.0
403.9
48.0
337.0
35.0
269.3
321.8
1033.9
689.3
THERMAL TOTAL
RENEWABLE TOTAL
DSİ
DSİ
EPDK
ÇİNE
KİRAZLIKÖPRÜ
GRANTED BY LICENCE
HYDRO
HYDRO
HYDRO
2011
DSİ
DSİ
DSİ
EPDK
ATASU
KIĞI
SÜREYYABEY
GRANTED BY LICENCE
HYDRO
HYDRO
HYDRO
HYDRO
HYDRO TOTAL
TOTAL
321.8
1033.9
EÜAŞ and DSI Projects are currently under construction and remaining are granted by licence.
78
689.3
ANNEX-4 : RESULTS OF DEMAND PROJECTION STUDIES
DEMAND
(June 2004)
I-A
I-B
II
%
%
%
%
GWh Increase GWh Increase GWh Increase
Increase
2004
151098
151098
151098
2005
8,0 163191
8,0 163191
8,0 163191
7,0
2006
8,1 176400
7,5 175500
8,1 176400
7,1
2007
8,1 190700
7,6 188900
8,2 190900
7,2
2008
8,2 206400
7,7 203450
8,3 206800
7,4
2009
8,3 223500
7,7 219200
8,4 224100
7,5
2010
8,3 242021
7,8 236362
8,5 243059
7,7
2011
8,3 262000
7,9 255000
8,4 263500
7,8
2012
8,2 283500
8,0 275300
8,3 285500
7,9
2013
8,0 306100
7,9 297000
8,2 309000
8,0
2014
7,9 330300
7,7 319900
8,1 334100
8,1
2015
7,8 356202
7,5 344022
7,9 360616
7,9
2016
7,5 383000
7,3 369000
7,5 387800
7,6
2017
7,2 410700
6,9 394300
7,3 416000
7,4
2018
7,0 439600
6,8 421000
7,1 445500
7,3
2019
6,8 469500
6,7 449000
7,0 476850
7,2
2020
6,4 499489
6,6 478819
7,0 510036
7,0
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
III
GWh
151098
161735
173200
185600
199400
214300
230848
248900
268560
290000
313400
338283
363900
390700
419100
449300
480924
%
Increase
IV-A
GWh
8,0
7,2
7,2
7,1
7,1
7,1
7,1
7,1
7,1
7,1
7,1
7,0
6,5
5,9
5,9
151098
163191
174900
187500
200800
215100
230477
246900
264550
283450
303700
325402
348200
371000
393000
416000
5,9
440448
79
%
Increase
IV-B
GWh
%
Increase
GWh
7,2
7,3
7,3
7,4
7,5
7,5
7,4
7,4
7,2
7,1
7,1
6,8
6,5
6,3
6,1
151098
161982
173782
186461
200277
215210
231261
248442
266791
285932
306277
327893
350095
372883
396498
420770
8,4
8,5
8,5
8,6
8,7
8,7
8,7
8,6
8,4
8,3
8,2
7,9
7,6
7,4
7,1
151098
163796
177716
192844
209514
227740
247556
269013
292193
316650
342936
371174
400494
430908
462746
495794
5,7
444958
6,7
529046
V
%
Increase
5,5
6,3
6,3
6,3
6,3
6,3
6,3
6,3
6,3
6,3
6,4
6,5
6,6
6,6
6,7
6,8
GWh
151098
159399
169520
180250
191680
203830
216750
230400
244950
260400
276800
294563
313600
334300
356500
380500
406530
DEMAND
(October 2003)
%
GWh
Increase
151098
11,4
168262
10,3
185600
10,0
204150
9,9
224300
9,7
246150
9,6
269842
9,6
295800
9,3
323200
8,7
351300
8,2
380000
7,8
409531
7,2
439100
7,1
470175
6,8
501950
6,7
535425
6,6
570521
Demand Projection Scenarios and Sensitivity Analysis results
GWh
600000
550000
500000
450000
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
June 2004
2008
I-A
2009
2010
I-B
2011
II
2012
2013
III
80
2014
IV-A
2015
2016
IV-B
2017
V
2018
2019
2020
October 2003
Abbreviations
TEİAŞ
EPDK
EPK
ETKB
EÜAŞ
TETAŞ
TEDAŞ
DSİ
DPT
BO
BOT
TOR
GDP
HV
MV
LV
Turkish Electricity Transmission Corporation
Energy Market Regulatory Authority
Electricity Market Law No : 4628
Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources
Electricity Generation Corporation
Turkish Electricity Trade and Contracting Corporation
Turkish Electricity Distribution Corporation
State Hydraulic Works
State Planning Organization
Built-Operate-Own
Built-Operate-Transfer
Transfer of Operational Right
Gross Domestic Product
High Voltage Level
Medium Voltage Level
Low Voltage Level
81

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Transcription

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