Arktis - en kilde til fornybar energi (PDF

Arktis - en kilde til fornybar energi (PDF

Arktis – en kilde til fornybar energi?
Ånund Killingtveit1
1
Norwegian University of Science and Technology
Centre for environmental design
of renewable energy - CEDREN
SRREN was
prepared
for WG III
In 2008 IPCC decided to produce a
Special Report on Renewable Energy
Sources and Climate Change Mitigation
The report (SRREN) was finished in 2011 and printed in 2012
It will also be an input to Assessment Report 5 (AR5) in 2014
Potential Renewable Energy Sources (SRREN)
Bio-energy
Hydro
Solar
Ocean energy
Waves, Tidal, Current …
Geothermal
Wind
Renewable energy sources suitability depends on
latitude, local climate, geology and topography
A view towards the Arctic / High North region
RE Technologies (SRREN)
Not all will be applicable in the High North
- Bio-energy: Low potential in High North
- Direct solar: Low potential, High cost
- Geothermal: Low potential outside Iceland
- Ocean energy: Unknown potential, very high cost
Capacity factor 0.05
Capacity factor 0.10
Capacity factor 0.20
78o N Longyearbyen
63o
N (Trondheim)
52o N (Berlin)
23o N (Sahara)
Existing hydropower development in the Arctic
Hydropower from the north - example




> 15 000 MW in La Grande
system, Canada
Several reservoirs and power
plants built step-by-step
Provides electricity to Quebec
 security of supply
DC line to Boston, USA
 export and peak power
Hydropower in the high north
Large unused potential
 Increased runoff with
climate change
 Small scale hydro in
remote areas
 Large-scale balancing
power for export to the
south
 Local scale balancing
with other renewables

Wind Map (IPCC-SRREN)
IPCC-SRREN report does not contain detailed wind power assessments
for the Arctic – but many studies have documented high wind resources
in Alaska, Canada, Russia, Iceland and Scandinavia
Long distance to the consumption centres is a major problem
Stand-alone local systems will need balancing technology
Wind turbines operating in cold or icing climate
Source: IEA, Wind RP13
Wind power in cold climate
Some special considerations:
Low temperature (outside normal limits)
Icing
Legal issues (Ice throw, noise, …)
O&M issues
Economy (high cost, low load factor)
60000
50000
30000
20000
- 30 000 MW
40000
+ 30 000 MW
80000
1
35
69
103
137
171
205
239
273
307
341
375
409
443
477
511
545
579
613
647
681
715
749
783
817
851
885
919
953
987
1021
1055
1089
1123
1157
1191
1225
1259
1293
1327
1361
1395
1429
1463
1497
1531
1565
1599
1633
1667
1701
1735
1769
1803
1837
1871
1905
1939
1973
2007
2041
2075
2109
2143
2177
Wind Power is highly variable – needs balancing
90000
7 x 24 h
70000
7 x 24 h
7 x 24 h
10000
0
Renewable energy in the high north




Abundant wind
resources in the north
Remote and expensive
grid connection
Local hydropower for
balancing
Case study Goulas
hydropower + wind
Lakselv
Goulas hydropower
Source: SINTEF Energy AS
Northern Norway
Power export can be increased by
wind-hydro coordination
220
power
export (MW)
(MW)
AverageAverage
power
export
200
No grid constraints
non-congested
control wind
control hydro
Coordination
wind/hydro
180
Only downregulation
of wind
160
Due to grid constraints, local
hydropower is enhancing the wind
production even without pumping.
140
120
100
50
100
Source: SINTEF Energy AS
150
200
250
300
350
Installed windwind
power (MW)
Installed
power (MW)
400
Securing a high penetration of variable RE in a given grid
Norwegian
storage hydro or
pumped storage
in a future wind
driven Europe
Norway as a “Green Battery” for Europe
RE development in Polar region is difficult/expensive
High construction cost
Intermittent operation
No storage possible
Low load factor
No grid
100% duplicated
 Not very suitable
Most important RE in Arctic region in the future?
(For Large-scale electricity production)
Hydropower
Hydro
Norway
Sweden
Finland
Iceland
Canada
Russia
Greenland
…
Geothermal
Hydro
Hydro
Hydro
Wind
Wind
Canada
Alaska
Russia
Scandinavia
...
Summary and conclusions
More renewable energy development is possible – Also in the High North
Most important RE sources in the high north are probably:
- Hydropower
- Wind power
Hydro and wind is a good match – both seasonally and short term interaction
Wind, Solar and Small hydro are highly intermittant
Energy storage and new transmission lines are needed
Renewable energy (Wind, Hydro) is sustainable even with climate change
Climate Change will (probably) increase hydropower potential
Hydropower from Greenland Ice sheet?
Area: 1 710 000 km2
Thickness: 2135 m (average)
Volume: 2 850 000 km3
Potential energy: ca 15 Mill TWh
Over 1000 yrs: 15000 TWh/yr
= Today’s annual global electricity production
A business idea?
http://www.cedren.no/