The UFOs of October - The Autokinetic Effect and Group Dynamics

Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
The UFOs of October
The Autokinetic Effect and Group Dynamics in UFO
Observations
Michael D. Sofka
[email protected]
Inquiring Skeptics of Upper New York
UFOs of October 2006
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Outline
1
Introduction
A Mystery in Stillwater
Overview
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Outline
1
2
Introduction
A Mystery in Stillwater
Overview
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect
Other Illusions of Motion
Perception As An Active Process
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Outline
1
2
3
Introduction
A Mystery in Stillwater
Overview
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect
Other Illusions of Motion
Perception As An Active Process
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Incident at Exeter
Mexico City Eclipse
Stillwater, NY
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Outline
1
2
3
4
Introduction
A Mystery in Stillwater
Overview
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect
Other Illusions of Motion
Perception As An Active Process
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Incident at Exeter
Mexico City Eclipse
Stillwater, NY
Summary
Conclusions
Perceptual Puzzle
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
A Mystery in Stillwater
Overview
Introduction
;whoami
Past president of the once skeptic group ISUNY
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
A Mystery in Stillwater
Overview
Introduction
;whoami
Past president of the once skeptic group ISUNY
Inquiring Skeptics of Upper New York (name by committee)
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
A Mystery in Stillwater
Overview
Introduction
;whoami
Past president of the once skeptic group ISUNY
Inquiring Skeptics of Upper New York (name by committee)
RPI’s “First,” “Second,” and “Third, First Anomalous
Phenomena Symposium ” (funded by student union)
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
A Mystery in Stillwater
Overview
Introduction
;whoami
Past president of the once skeptic group ISUNY
Inquiring Skeptics of Upper New York (name by committee)
RPI’s “First,” “Second,” and “Third, First Anomalous
Phenomena Symposium ” (funded by student union)
Attending MUFON talk about Stillwarter sightings
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
A Mystery in Stillwater
Overview
Introduction
A Mystery in Stillwater
October, 1994 Albany Times Union:
“red and green blinking lights in sky”
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
A Mystery in Stillwater
Overview
Introduction
A Mystery in Stillwater
October, 1994 Albany Times Union:
“red and green blinking lights in sky”
“whole bunch of people witnessed
this”
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
A Mystery in Stillwater
Overview
Introduction
A Mystery in Stillwater
October, 1994 Albany Times Union:
“red and green blinking lights in sky”
“whole bunch of people witnessed
this”
“Nobody was drinking; There were no
drugs around”
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
A Mystery in Stillwater
Overview
Introduction
A Mystery in Stillwater
October, 1994 Albany Times Union:
“red and green blinking lights in sky”
“whole bunch of people witnessed
this”
“Nobody was drinking; There were no
drugs around”
Lights first seen about 8 pm
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
A Mystery in Stillwater
Overview
Introduction
A Mystery in Stillwater
October, 1994 Albany Times Union:
“red and green blinking lights in sky”
“whole bunch of people witnessed
this”
“Nobody was drinking; There were no
drugs around”
Lights first seen about 8 pm
Saucer shaped; size of a dime at arms
length.
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
A Mystery in Stillwater
Overview
Introduction
A Mystery in Stillwater
October, 1994 Albany Times Union:
“red and green blinking lights in sky”
“whole bunch of people witnessed
this”
“Nobody was drinking; There were no
drugs around”
Lights first seen about 8 pm
Saucer shaped; size of a dime at arms
length.
Covered by two tv stations next day
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
A Mystery in Stillwater
Overview
Introduction
A Mystery in Stillwater
October, 1994 Albany Times Union:
“red and green blinking lights in sky”
“whole bunch of people witnessed
this”
“Nobody was drinking; There were no
drugs around”
Lights first seen about 8 pm
Saucer shaped; size of a dime at arms
length.
Covered by two tv stations next day
What did they see?
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
A Mystery in Stillwater
Overview
A Puzzle
A dime held at Arm’s Length
The Times Union article elaborated:
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
A Mystery in Stillwater
Overview
A Puzzle
A dime held at Arm’s Length
The Times Union article elaborated:
The objects saucer shaped; size of a dime held at arms length.
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
A Mystery in Stillwater
Overview
A Puzzle
A dime held at Arm’s Length
The Times Union article elaborated:
The objects saucer shaped; size of a dime held at arms length.
Think about this:
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
A Mystery in Stillwater
Overview
A Puzzle
A dime held at Arm’s Length
The Times Union article elaborated:
The objects saucer shaped; size of a dime held at arms length.
Think about this:
How big is a dime held at arm’s length?
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
A Mystery in Stillwater
Overview
Overview
This talk is about
UFOs, optical illusions, group dynamics
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
A Mystery in Stillwater
Overview
Overview
This talk is about
UFOs, optical illusions, group dynamics
Normal perceptual mental effects
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
A Mystery in Stillwater
Overview
Overview
This talk is about
UFOs, optical illusions, group dynamics
Normal perceptual mental effects
“Lights in the sky”
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
A Mystery in Stillwater
Overview
Overview
This talk is about
UFOs, optical illusions, group dynamics
Normal perceptual mental effects
“Lights in the sky”
Autokinetic effect and other “Illusions of Motion”
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
A Mystery in Stillwater
Overview
Overview
This talk is about
UFOs, optical illusions, group dynamics
Normal perceptual mental effects
“Lights in the sky”
Autokinetic effect and other “Illusions of Motion”
Examples from real life
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
A Mystery in Stillwater
Overview
Overview
This talk is not about
Alien abductions
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
A Mystery in Stillwater
Overview
Overview
This talk is not about
Alien abductions
Alien autopsies
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
A Mystery in Stillwater
Overview
Overview
This talk is not about
Alien abductions
Alien autopsies
Crashed flying saucers
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
A Mystery in Stillwater
Overview
Overview
This talk is not about
Alien abductions
Alien autopsies
Crashed flying saucers
Flying saucer cults
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
A Mystery in Stillwater
Overview
Overview
This talk is not about
Alien abductions
Alien autopsies
Crashed flying saucers
Flying saucer cults
Intentional hoaxes
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
A Mystery in Stillwater
Overview
Overview
This talk is not about
Alien abductions
Alien autopsies
Crashed flying saucers
Flying saucer cults
Intentional hoaxes
History of UFOlogy
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
A Mystery in Stillwater
Overview
Overview
This talk is not about
Alien abductions
Alien autopsies
Crashed flying saucers
Flying saucer cults
Intentional hoaxes
History of UFOlogy
UFOs as Mythology or Folklore
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Autokinetic Effect
Other Illusions of Motion
Perception As An Active Process
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect
Perceptual illusion of motion
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Autokinetic Effect
Other Illusions of Motion
Perception As An Active Process
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect
Perceptual illusion of motion
A stationary light appears to move
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Autokinetic Effect
Other Illusions of Motion
Perception As An Active Process
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect
Perceptual illusion of motion
A stationary light appears to move
Small eye movements—brain normally corrects
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Autokinetic Effect
Other Illusions of Motion
Perception As An Active Process
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect
Perceptual illusion of motion
A stationary light appears to move
Small eye movements—brain normally corrects
Affects everybody when conditions are right
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Autokinetic Effect
Other Illusions of Motion
Perception As An Active Process
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect
Perceptual illusion of motion
A stationary light appears to move
Small eye movements—brain normally corrects
Affects everybody when conditions are right
Realistic and persuasive
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Autokinetic Effect
Other Illusions of Motion
Perception As An Active Process
Illusions of Motion
Muzafer Sherif’s study
Study of group norms
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Autokinetic Effect
Other Illusions of Motion
Perception As An Active Process
Illusions of Motion
Muzafer Sherif’s study
Study of group norms
Subject individually report movements
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Autokinetic Effect
Other Illusions of Motion
Perception As An Active Process
Illusions of Motion
Muzafer Sherif’s study
Study of group norms
Subject individually report movements
Groups of subjects converge on estimate
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Autokinetic Effect
Other Illusions of Motion
Perception As An Active Process
Illusions of Motion
Muzafer Sherif’s study
Study of group norms
Subject individually report movements
Groups of subjects converge on estimate
Group estimate persists
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Autokinetic Effect
Other Illusions of Motion
Perception As An Active Process
Illusions of Motion
Muzafer Sherif’s study
Study of group norms
Subject individually report movements
Groups of subjects converge on estimate
Group estimate persists
First, inadvertent, study of UFOs
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Autokinetic Effect
Other Illusions of Motion
Perception As An Active Process
Illusions of Motion
Muzafer Sherif’s study
Study of group norms
Subject individually report movements
Groups of subjects converge on estimate
Group estimate persists
First, inadvertent, study of UFOs
Replicated, easy to influence motion
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Autokinetic Effect
Other Illusions of Motion
Perception As An Active Process
Illusions of Motion
Muzafer Sherif’s study
Study of group norms
Subject individually report movements
Groups of subjects converge on estimate
Group estimate persists
First, inadvertent, study of UFOs
Replicated, easy to influence motion
Exaggerated norms, spell words, etc.
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Autokinetic Effect
Other Illusions of Motion
Perception As An Active Process
Illusions of Motion
Other Illusions
Autostatic effect
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Autokinetic Effect
Other Illusions of Motion
Perception As An Active Process
Illusions of Motion
Other Illusions
Autostatic effect
Stroboscopic effect
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Autokinetic Effect
Other Illusions of Motion
Perception As An Active Process
Illusions of Motion
Other Illusions
Autostatic effect
Stroboscopic effect
Induced movement
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Autokinetic Effect
Other Illusions of Motion
Perception As An Active Process
Illusions of Motion
Other Illusions
Autostatic effect
Stroboscopic effect
Induced movement
Moon or stars “chasing effect”
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Autokinetic Effect
Other Illusions of Motion
Perception As An Active Process
Illusions of Motion
Other Illusions
Autostatic effect
Stroboscopic effect
Induced movement
Moon or stars “chasing effect”
Atmospheric shimmering
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Autokinetic Effect
Other Illusions of Motion
Perception As An Active Process
Illusions of Motion
Other Illusions
Autostatic effect
Stroboscopic effect
Induced movement
Moon or stars “chasing effect”
Atmospheric shimmering
Prismatic effect and rotation
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Autokinetic Effect
Other Illusions of Motion
Perception As An Active Process
Illusions of Motion
Other Illusions
Autostatic effect
Stroboscopic effect
Induced movement
Moon or stars “chasing effect”
Atmospheric shimmering
Prismatic effect and rotation
Size/Brightness constancy
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Autokinetic Effect
Other Illusions of Motion
Perception As An Active Process
An active process
Contour Slide
Information from sense organs
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Autokinetic Effect
Other Illusions of Motion
Perception As An Active Process
An active process
Contour Slide
Information from sense organs
What the brain expects to see
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Autokinetic Effect
Other Illusions of Motion
Perception As An Active Process
An active process
Contour Slide
Information from sense organs
What the brain expects to see
This image has:
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Autokinetic Effect
Other Illusions of Motion
Perception As An Active Process
An active process
Contour Slide
Information from sense organs
What the brain expects to see
This image has:
Three semi-circles
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Autokinetic Effect
Other Illusions of Motion
Perception As An Active Process
An active process
Contour Slide
Information from sense organs
What the brain expects to see
This image has:
Three semi-circles
Three wedges
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Autokinetic Effect
Other Illusions of Motion
Perception As An Active Process
An active process
Contour Slide
Information from sense organs
What the brain expects to see
This image has:
Three semi-circles
Three wedges
No triangles
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Autokinetic Effect
Other Illusions of Motion
Perception As An Active Process
An active process
Contour Slide
Information from sense organs
What the brain expects to see
This image has:
Three semi-circles
Three wedges
No triangles
The perception of triangles is
difficult to shake
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Autokinetic Effect
Other Illusions of Motion
Perception As An Active Process
An active process
Elizabeth Loftus
Shows subjects movie of auto accident
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Autokinetic Effect
Other Illusions of Motion
Perception As An Active Process
An active process
Elizabeth Loftus
Shows subjects movie of auto accident
Later asked “how fast” the car was traveling when it “ran the
stop sign”
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Autokinetic Effect
Other Illusions of Motion
Perception As An Active Process
An active process
Elizabeth Loftus
Shows subjects movie of auto accident
Later asked “how fast” the car was traveling when it “ran the
stop sign”
There was no stop sign
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Autokinetic Effect
Other Illusions of Motion
Perception As An Active Process
An active process
Elizabeth Loftus
Shows subjects movie of auto accident
Later asked “how fast” the car was traveling when it “ran the
stop sign”
There was no stop sign
Regardless, subjects later recalled a stop sign
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Autokinetic Effect
Other Illusions of Motion
Perception As An Active Process
An active process
Elizabeth Loftus
Shows subjects movie of auto accident
Later asked “how fast” the car was traveling when it “ran the
stop sign”
There was no stop sign
Regardless, subjects later recalled a stop sign
Loftus called this a “leading question”
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Autokinetic Effect
Other Illusions of Motion
Perception As An Active Process
An active process
IFO Drawings
Hendry, 1979
Influence of what we believe we
saw
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Autokinetic Effect
Other Illusions of Motion
Perception As An Active Process
An active process
IFO Drawings
Hendry, 1979
Influence of what we believe we
saw
Collection of UFO drawings
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Autokinetic Effect
Other Illusions of Motion
Perception As An Active Process
An active process
IFO Drawings
Hendry, 1979
Influence of what we believe we
saw
Collection of UFO drawings
Based on what people believed
they saw
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Autokinetic Effect
Other Illusions of Motion
Perception As An Active Process
An active process
IFO Drawings
Hendry, 1979
Influence of what we believe we
saw
Collection of UFO drawings
Based on what people believed
they saw
But, this was an Identified Flying
Object
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Autokinetic Effect
Other Illusions of Motion
Perception As An Active Process
An active process
IFO Drawings
Hendry, 1979
Influence of what we believe we
saw
Collection of UFO drawings
Based on what people believed
they saw
But, this was an Identified Flying
Object
An advertisement plane seen from
a distance
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Incident at Exeter
Mexico City Eclipse
Stillwater, NY
Incident at Exeter
The Story
Fall of 1965 in Exeter, NH
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Incident at Exeter
Mexico City Eclipse
Stillwater, NY
Incident at Exeter
The Story
Fall of 1965 in Exeter, NH
Multiple witnesses reported UFOs
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Incident at Exeter
Mexico City Eclipse
Stillwater, NY
Incident at Exeter
The Story
Fall of 1965 in Exeter, NH
Multiple witnesses reported UFOs
UFO followed car from beach
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Incident at Exeter
Mexico City Eclipse
Stillwater, NY
Incident at Exeter
The Story
Fall of 1965 in Exeter, NH
Multiple witnesses reported UFOs
UFO followed car from beach
Visible from back porches
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Incident at Exeter
Mexico City Eclipse
Stillwater, NY
Incident at Exeter
The Story
Fall of 1965 in Exeter, NH
Multiple witnesses reported UFOs
UFO followed car from beach
Visible from back porches
Reported to move, rotate
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Incident at Exeter
Mexico City Eclipse
Stillwater, NY
Incident at Exeter
The Story
Fall of 1965 in Exeter, NH
Multiple witnesses reported UFOs
UFO followed car from beach
Visible from back porches
Reported to move, rotate
Went on for three months
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Incident at Exeter
Mexico City Eclipse
Stillwater, NY
Incident at Exeter
The Story
Fall of 1965 in Exeter, NH
Multiple witnesses reported UFOs
UFO followed car from beach
Visible from back porches
Reported to move, rotate
Went on for three months
Widely reported in newspapers
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Incident at Exeter
Mexico City Eclipse
Stillwater, NY
Incident at Exeter
The Story
Fall of 1965 in Exeter, NH
Multiple witnesses reported UFOs
UFO followed car from beach
Visible from back porches
Reported to move, rotate
Went on for three months
Widely reported in newspapers
Subject of book by John Fuller
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Incident at Exeter
Mexico City Eclipse
Stillwater, NY
Incident at Exeter
The Story
Fall of 1965 in Exeter, NH
Multiple witnesses reported UFOs
UFO followed car from beach
Visible from back porches
Reported to move, rotate
Went on for three months
Widely reported in newspapers
Subject of book by John Fuller
Considered excellent UFO case
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Incident at Exeter
Mexico City Eclipse
Stillwater, NY
Incident at Exeter
An Explanation?
Robert Sheaffer, 1986
Time of sightings from
newspaper reports
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Incident at Exeter
Mexico City Eclipse
Stillwater, NY
Incident at Exeter
An Explanation?
Robert Sheaffer, 1986
Time of sightings from
newspaper reports
Time Jupiter was 20 degree
above horizon
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Incident at Exeter
Mexico City Eclipse
Stillwater, NY
Incident at Exeter
An Explanation?
Robert Sheaffer, 1986
Time of sightings from
newspaper reports
Time Jupiter was 20 degree
above horizon
If not Jupiter, where was
Jupiter?
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Incident at Exeter
Mexico City Eclipse
Stillwater, NY
Incident at Exeter
An Explanation?
Robert Sheaffer, 1986
Time of sightings from
newspaper reports
Time Jupiter was 20 degree
above horizon
If not Jupiter, where was
Jupiter?
No “UFO next to the ‘bright
star’ ”?
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Incident at Exeter
Mexico City Eclipse
Stillwater, NY
Incident at Exeter
An Explanation?
Robert Sheaffer, 1986
Time of sightings from
newspaper reports
Time Jupiter was 20 degree
above horizon
If not Jupiter, where was
Jupiter?
No “UFO next to the ‘bright
star’ ”?
Could be UFO, but no
compelling evidence
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Incident at Exeter
Mexico City Eclipse
Stillwater, NY
Mexico City Eclipse
The Story
July 11th, 1991, Mexico City
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Incident at Exeter
Mexico City Eclipse
Stillwater, NY
Mexico City Eclipse
The Story
July 11th, 1991, Mexico City
Total eclipse, sun near zenith
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Incident at Exeter
Mexico City Eclipse
Stillwater, NY
Mexico City Eclipse
The Story
July 11th, 1991, Mexico City
Total eclipse, sun near zenith
Thousands of people watching
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Incident at Exeter
Mexico City Eclipse
Stillwater, NY
Mexico City Eclipse
The Story
July 11th, 1991, Mexico City
Total eclipse, sun near zenith
Thousands of people watching
Hundreds? Thousands? see UFO
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Incident at Exeter
Mexico City Eclipse
Stillwater, NY
Mexico City Eclipse
The Story
July 11th, 1991, Mexico City
Total eclipse, sun near zenith
Thousands of people watching
Hundreds? Thousands? see UFO
Recorded on camcorders and cameras
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Incident at Exeter
Mexico City Eclipse
Stillwater, NY
Mexico City Eclipse
The Story
July 11th, 1991, Mexico City
Total eclipse, sun near zenith
Thousands of people watching
Hundreds? Thousands? see UFO
Recorded on camcorders and cameras
Basis of documentary: Messenger of Destiny
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Incident at Exeter
Mexico City Eclipse
Stillwater, NY
Mexico City Eclipse
The Story
July 11th, 1991, Mexico City
Total eclipse, sun near zenith
Thousands of people watching
Hundreds? Thousands? see UFO
Recorded on camcorders and cameras
Basis of documentary: Messenger of Destiny
Considered an excellent UFO case
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Incident at Exeter
Mexico City Eclipse
Stillwater, NY
Mexico City Eclipse
An Explanation?
sky from Baja, CA, Sky & Telescope July 1991
Mercury, Venus, Mars, Jupiter
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Incident at Exeter
Mexico City Eclipse
Stillwater, NY
Mexico City Eclipse
An Explanation?
sky from Baja, CA, Sky & Telescope July 1991
Mercury, Venus, Mars, Jupiter
Venus, magnitude −5
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Incident at Exeter
Mexico City Eclipse
Stillwater, NY
Mexico City Eclipse
An Explanation?
sky from Baja, CA, Sky & Telescope July 1991
Mercury, Venus, Mars, Jupiter
Venus, magnitude −5
UFO compared to Venus?
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Incident at Exeter
Mexico City Eclipse
Stillwater, NY
Mexico City Eclipse
An Explanation?
sky from Baja, CA, Sky & Telescope July 1991
Mercury, Venus, Mars, Jupiter
Venus, magnitude −5
UFO compared to Venus?
Long-lasting wave of UFO
reports in Mexico
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Incident at Exeter
Mexico City Eclipse
Stillwater, NY
Mexico City Eclipse
An Explanation?
sky from Baja, CA, Sky & Telescope July 1991
Mercury, Venus, Mars, Jupiter
Venus, magnitude −5
UFO compared to Venus?
Long-lasting wave of UFO
reports in Mexico
Major elements from
US UFOlogy
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Incident at Exeter
Mexico City Eclipse
Stillwater, NY
Mexico City Eclipse
An Explanation?
sky from Baja, CA, Sky & Telescope July 1991
Mercury, Venus, Mars, Jupiter
Venus, magnitude −5
UFO compared to Venus?
Long-lasting wave of UFO
reports in Mexico
Major elements from
US UFOlogy
Could be UFO, but no
compelling evidence
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Incident at Exeter
Mexico City Eclipse
Stillwater, NY
Stillwater, NY
The Story Unfolded
Channel 6:
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Incident at Exeter
Mexico City Eclipse
Stillwater, NY
Stillwater, NY
The Story Unfolded
Channel 6:
People said “lights moving”
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Incident at Exeter
Mexico City Eclipse
Stillwater, NY
Stillwater, NY
The Story Unfolded
Channel 6:
People said “lights moving”
Video footage of rock-steady “star”
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Incident at Exeter
Mexico City Eclipse
Stillwater, NY
Stillwater, NY
The Story Unfolded
Channel 6:
People said “lights moving”
Video footage of rock-steady “star”
Meteorologist debunked
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Incident at Exeter
Mexico City Eclipse
Stillwater, NY
Stillwater, NY
The Story Unfolded
Channel 6:
People said “lights moving”
Video footage of rock-steady “star”
Meteorologist debunked
Channel 10:
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Incident at Exeter
Mexico City Eclipse
Stillwater, NY
Stillwater, NY
The Story Unfolded
Channel 6:
People said “lights moving”
Video footage of rock-steady “star”
Meteorologist debunked
Channel 10:
Moving light
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Incident at Exeter
Mexico City Eclipse
Stillwater, NY
Stillwater, NY
The Story Unfolded
Channel 6:
People said “lights moving”
Video footage of rock-steady “star”
Meteorologist debunked
Channel 10:
Moving light
Rock steady image on camera
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Incident at Exeter
Mexico City Eclipse
Stillwater, NY
Stillwater, NY
The Story Unfolded
Channel 6:
People said “lights moving”
Video footage of rock-steady “star”
Meteorologist debunked
Channel 10:
Moving light
Rock steady image on camera
Anchor says “I saw something the other night”
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Incident at Exeter
Mexico City Eclipse
Stillwater, NY
Stillwater, NY
The Story Unfolded
Channel 6:
People said “lights moving”
Video footage of rock-steady “star”
Meteorologist debunked
Channel 10:
Moving light
Rock steady image on camera
Anchor says “I saw something the other night”
Meteorologist kept silent
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Incident at Exeter
Mexico City Eclipse
Stillwater, NY
Stillwater, NY
The Story Unfolded
Arcturus and Capella visible in north
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Incident at Exeter
Mexico City Eclipse
Stillwater, NY
Stillwater, NY
The Story Unfolded
Arcturus and Capella visible in north
Venus and Jupiter visible in southeast
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Incident at Exeter
Mexico City Eclipse
Stillwater, NY
Stillwater, NY
The Story Unfolded
Arcturus and Capella visible in north
Venus and Jupiter visible in southeast
Exceptionally clear fall air
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Incident at Exeter
Mexico City Eclipse
Stillwater, NY
Stillwater, NY
Followup
Ray Cecot, MUFON sponsored talk, 1 year later
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Incident at Exeter
Mexico City Eclipse
Stillwater, NY
Stillwater, NY
Followup
Ray Cecot, MUFON sponsored talk, 1 year later
First UFOs at 8 pm
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Incident at Exeter
Mexico City Eclipse
Stillwater, NY
Stillwater, NY
Followup
Ray Cecot, MUFON sponsored talk, 1 year later
First UFOs at 8 pm
Got to Stillwater at 11 pm
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Incident at Exeter
Mexico City Eclipse
Stillwater, NY
Stillwater, NY
Followup
Ray Cecot, MUFON sponsored talk, 1 year later
First UFOs at 8 pm
Got to Stillwater at 11 pm
People pointing at stars when asked about UFO
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Incident at Exeter
Mexico City Eclipse
Stillwater, NY
Stillwater, NY
Followup
Ray Cecot, MUFON sponsored talk, 1 year later
First UFOs at 8 pm
Got to Stillwater at 11 pm
People pointing at stars when asked about UFO
Believes that earlier object was “real” UFO
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Incident at Exeter
Mexico City Eclipse
Stillwater, NY
Stillwater, NY
Followup
Ray Cecot, MUFON sponsored talk, 1 year later
First UFOs at 8 pm
Got to Stillwater at 11 pm
People pointing at stars when asked about UFO
Believes that earlier object was “real” UFO
11 o’clock: could not tell star from interstellar ship
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Incident at Exeter
Mexico City Eclipse
Stillwater, NY
Stillwater, NY
Followup
Ray Cecot, MUFON sponsored talk, 1 year later
First UFOs at 8 pm
Got to Stillwater at 11 pm
People pointing at stars when asked about UFO
Believes that earlier object was “real” UFO
11 o’clock: could not tell star from interstellar ship
8 o’clock: they could tell star from interstellar ship
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Incident at Exeter
Mexico City Eclipse
Stillwater, NY
Stillwater, NY
Followup
Ray Cecot, MUFON sponsored talk, 1 year later
First UFOs at 8 pm
Got to Stillwater at 11 pm
People pointing at stars when asked about UFO
Believes that earlier object was “real” UFO
11 o’clock: could not tell star from interstellar ship
8 o’clock: they could tell star from interstellar ship
Could be UFO, but no compelling evidence
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Conclusions
Perceptual Puzzle
Conclusions
Complex Interactions
UFO sightings not a single effect!
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Conclusions
Perceptual Puzzle
Conclusions
Complex Interactions
UFO sightings not a single effect!
Combination of perceptual
illusions
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Conclusions
Perceptual Puzzle
Conclusions
Complex Interactions
UFO sightings not a single effect!
Combination of perceptual
illusions
Selective recall
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Conclusions
Perceptual Puzzle
Conclusions
Complex Interactions
UFO sightings not a single effect!
Combination of perceptual
illusions
Selective recall
Group dynamics
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Conclusions
Perceptual Puzzle
Conclusions
Complex Interactions
UFO sightings not a single effect!
Combination of perceptual
illusions
Selective recall
Group dynamics
Influenced by “leading” questions
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Conclusions
Perceptual Puzzle
Conclusions
Complex Interactions
UFO sightings not a single effect!
Combination of perceptual
illusions
Selective recall
Group dynamics
Influenced by “leading” questions
Our brain tries to form a
consistent narrative
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Conclusions
Perceptual Puzzle
Conclusions
Disclaimer
Nobody knows what people saw in Stillwater
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Conclusions
Perceptual Puzzle
Conclusions
Disclaimer
Nobody knows what people saw in Stillwater
Distant jet? A bright star?
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Conclusions
Perceptual Puzzle
Conclusions
Disclaimer
Nobody knows what people saw in Stillwater
Distant jet? A bright star?
An interstellar space craft?
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Conclusions
Perceptual Puzzle
Conclusions
Disclaimer
Nobody knows what people saw in Stillwater
Distant jet? A bright star?
An interstellar space craft?
Evidence for space craft, weak. Very weak.
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Conclusions
Perceptual Puzzle
Conclusions
Disclaimer
Nobody knows what people saw in Stillwater
Distant jet? A bright star?
An interstellar space craft?
Evidence for space craft, weak. Very weak.
Simple alternative explanations available
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Conclusions
Perceptual Puzzle
Conclusions
After Stillwater
Mini UFO wave in Hudson Valley
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Conclusions
Perceptual Puzzle
Conclusions
After Stillwater
Mini UFO wave in Hudson Valley
RPI’s First UFO, Second First UFO, and Third First UFO
symposium
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Conclusions
Perceptual Puzzle
Conclusions
After Stillwater
Mini UFO wave in Hudson Valley
RPI’s First UFO, Second First UFO, and Third First UFO
symposium
Many people saw the newspaper article and news reports
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Conclusions
Perceptual Puzzle
Conclusions
After Stillwater
Mini UFO wave in Hudson Valley
RPI’s First UFO, Second First UFO, and Third First UFO
symposium
Many people saw the newspaper article and news reports
Many fewer people saw any alternative explanation
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Conclusions
Perceptual Puzzle
Conclusions
After Stillwater
Mini UFO wave in Hudson Valley
RPI’s First UFO, Second First UFO, and Third First UFO
symposium
Many people saw the newspaper article and news reports
Many fewer people saw any alternative explanation
Hudson valley rated number 3 for UFO spotting
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Conclusions
Perceptual Puzzle
Conclusions
After Stillwater
Mini UFO wave in Hudson Valley
RPI’s First UFO, Second First UFO, and Third First UFO
symposium
Many people saw the newspaper article and news reports
Many fewer people saw any alternative explanation
Hudson valley rated number 3 for UFO spotting
That’s right:
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Conclusions
Perceptual Puzzle
Conclusions
After Stillwater
Mini UFO wave in Hudson Valley
RPI’s First UFO, Second First UFO, and Third First UFO
symposium
Many people saw the newspaper article and news reports
Many fewer people saw any alternative explanation
Hudson valley rated number 3 for UFO spotting
That’s right:
Groom Lake Nevada
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Conclusions
Perceptual Puzzle
Conclusions
After Stillwater
Mini UFO wave in Hudson Valley
RPI’s First UFO, Second First UFO, and Third First UFO
symposium
Many people saw the newspaper article and news reports
Many fewer people saw any alternative explanation
Hudson valley rated number 3 for UFO spotting
That’s right:
Groom Lake Nevada
Roswell New Mexico
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Conclusions
Perceptual Puzzle
Conclusions
After Stillwater
Mini UFO wave in Hudson Valley
RPI’s First UFO, Second First UFO, and Third First UFO
symposium
Many people saw the newspaper article and news reports
Many fewer people saw any alternative explanation
Hudson valley rated number 3 for UFO spotting
That’s right:
Groom Lake Nevada
Roswell New Mexico
Albany New York
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Conclusions
Perceptual Puzzle
Conclusions
After Stillwater
Mini UFO wave in Hudson Valley
RPI’s First UFO, Second First UFO, and Third First UFO
symposium
Many people saw the newspaper article and news reports
Many fewer people saw any alternative explanation
Hudson valley rated number 3 for UFO spotting
That’s right:
Groom Lake Nevada
Roswell New Mexico
Albany New York
UFOs are in the background (folklore)
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Conclusions
Perceptual Puzzle
Conclusions
Scientific Investigation
Does not start with total ignorance
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Conclusions
Perceptual Puzzle
Conclusions
Scientific Investigation
Does not start with total ignorance
There is much we don’t know
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Conclusions
Perceptual Puzzle
Conclusions
Scientific Investigation
Does not start with total ignorance
There is much we don’t know
But, there is much we do
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Conclusions
Perceptual Puzzle
Conclusions
Scientific Investigation
Does not start with total ignorance
There is much we don’t know
But, there is much we do
What we do know, informs investigations, shapes hypothesis
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Conclusions
Perceptual Puzzle
Conclusions
Scientific Investigation
Does not start with total ignorance
There is much we don’t know
But, there is much we do
What we do know, informs investigations, shapes hypothesis
This is called: “Making progress”
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Conclusions
Perceptual Puzzle
Conclusions
Scientific Investigation
Does not start with total ignorance
There is much we don’t know
But, there is much we do
What we do know, informs investigations, shapes hypothesis
This is called: “Making progress”
Skeptics, do a disservice if they pretend to ignore this progress
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Conclusions
Perceptual Puzzle
Solution to Puzzle
How big is a dime held at arm’s length?
First, What does the question mean?
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Conclusions
Perceptual Puzzle
Solution to Puzzle
How big is a dime held at arm’s length?
First, What does the question mean?
Big, compared to what?
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Conclusions
Perceptual Puzzle
Solution to Puzzle
How big is a dime held at arm’s length?
First, What does the question mean?
Big, compared to what?
UFO Context:
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Conclusions
Perceptual Puzzle
Solution to Puzzle
How big is a dime held at arm’s length?
First, What does the question mean?
Big, compared to what?
UFO Context:
How big is a dime at arm’s length, compared to the full moon?
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Conclusions
Perceptual Puzzle
Solution to Puzzle
How big is a dime held at arm’s length?
First, What does the question mean?
Big, compared to what?
UFO Context:
How big is a dime at arm’s length, compared to the full moon?
The dime is, roughly, 4 times the area of the full moon.
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Conclusions
Perceptual Puzzle
Solution to Puzzle
How big is a dime held at arm’s length?
First, What does the question mean?
Big, compared to what?
UFO Context:
How big is a dime at arm’s length, compared to the full moon?
The dime is, roughly, 4 times the area of the full moon.
People are bad at judging distance and size without context
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Conclusions
Perceptual Puzzle
Solution to Puzzle
How big is a dime held at arm’s length?
First, What does the question mean?
Big, compared to what?
UFO Context:
How big is a dime at arm’s length, compared to the full moon?
The dime is, roughly, 4 times the area of the full moon.
People are bad at judging distance and size without context
If the context is “flying saucers”
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Conclusions
Perceptual Puzzle
Solution to Puzzle
How big is a dime held at arm’s length?
First, What does the question mean?
Big, compared to what?
UFO Context:
How big is a dime at arm’s length, compared to the full moon?
The dime is, roughly, 4 times the area of the full moon.
People are bad at judging distance and size without context
If the context is “flying saucers”
What starts as a bright star, ends with a drawing of a UFO
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Conclusions
Perceptual Puzzle
Robert E. Bartholomew & George S. Howard
UFOs & Alien Contact: Two Centuries of Mystery.
Prometheus Books, 1998.
Curtis Peelbes
Watch the Skies!: A Chronicle of the Flying Saucer Myth.
Smithsonian Institution Press, 1994.
Joel Achenbach
Captured by Aliens: The Search for Life and Truth in a Very
Large Universe.
Simon & Schuster, 1999.
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October
Introduction
Illusions of Motion
Autokinetic Effect and UFOs
Summary
Conclusions
Perceptual Puzzle
Robert Sheaffer
The UFO Verdict: Examining the Evidence.
Prometheus Books, 1986.
Terence Hines
Pseudoscience and the Paranormal: A Critical Examination of
the Evidence.
Prometheus Books, 1988.
Michael Sofka, ISUNY
The UFOs of October