Demographics Report

Pearland
Independent
School
District
Learn from Yesterday…
Understand Today…
Plan for Tomorrow
Demographic
Update
Fall Report
Economic Conditions – Houston MSA (Sept 2015)
Pearland
Unemployment Rate
-0.3%
1.4%
Job Growth
Houston MSA
277
•
•
•
•
U.S. 5.2%
Texas 4.4%
Houston MSA 4.6%
Pearland 3.4%
• 41,900 new jobs created in the last
12 months
• 55,960 YTD home sales, 277 less
than the same period in 2014
YTD Home Sales
Houston MSA
2
Houston Economic Overview
A Cooling in the Oil Boom
•
Oil prices are forecasted to remain below $60 a barrel through the first half of 2016, and
below $70 a barrel by 4Q16
•
The U.S. crude oil production is at its highest rates in three decades
•
Housing prices will continue to rise, and inventory will rise as demand is cooled slightly
•
Houston builders are still forecasted to build 32,500 homes in 2015, compared to 30,000
homes in 2014
•
Current Houston housing demand is for 35,000 homes a year
•
Houston is currently on pace to permit approximately 37,000 homes in 2015
3
Local Economic Conditions
The Center at Pearland Parkway
• The Center at Pearland Parkway opened doors in
January 2015
• The first major tenants included TJ Maxx, Ross, Petco,
Five Below, Rue 21, Payless and Mattress Firm
• The 165,000 sq. ft. retail center is off FM 518 and
Pearland Parkway
Memorial Hermann Hospital
Expansion Underway
• Memorial Hermann’s Pearland hospital and Convenient
Care Center expansion are still under construction
• The expansion is centered around its recently opened
Convenient Care Center with a 24-hour emergency room
• The 64-bed Pearland Hospital will offer operating rooms,
surgical units, specialty physicians and women’s services
• The project will have its grand opening winter 2015
Additional Pearland Developments
• Costco will open a 150,000 sq. ft. store in October off Hwy. 288 and CR 59, which will create 150 jobs
• A Sprouts Farmers Market grocery store is under construction on Broadway and will be opening in September 2015.
The store will create 100 full and part-time jobs
• New medical offices will be opening at the corner of Cullen Pkwy and Broadway St
• A Waffle House was permitted for 1507 Broadway St, across from Longwood Dr
• A Raising Cane’s Restaurant is going to open on 1601 Broadway St
4
Texas Enrollment Trends
2014/15 State Enrollment
Total Enrollment
Total Growth
5,232,065
80,140
Total State Enrollment
5,400,000
5,200,000
5,000,000
4,800,000
4,600,000
4,400,000
4,200,000
5,232,065
5,151,925
4,933,617
5,075,840
4,847,844
4,998,579
4,671,493
4,749,571
4,519,164
4,592,849
4,399,019
4,000,000
3,800,000
140,000
120,000
Enrollment Change
120,145
98,273
100,000
60,000
85,773
78,644
80,000
73,685
77,261
78,078
80,140
76,085
64,962
40,000
20,000
0
5
Region 4 & 6 Enrollment Trends
6
Region 4 & 6 Enrollment Trends
Region 4
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
District
Houston ISD
Katy ISD
Cypress-Fairbanks ISD
Aldine ISD
Humble ISD
Klein ISD
Lamar Cons ISD
Alvin ISD
Pasadena ISD
Clear Creek ISD
Tomball ISD
Fort Bend ISD
Spring Branch ISD
Pearland ISD
Goose Creek ISD
Alief ISD
Spring ISD
Dickinson ISD
Sheldon ISD
Galena Park ISD
2009/10
Enrollment
202,773
59,078
104,231
62,792
34,923
44,824
23,864
16,788
52,303
37,611
10,266
69,374
32,502
18,308
20,954
45,553
35,350
8,878
6,570
21,536
2014/15
Enrollment
215,215
70,330
113,018
69,717
39,522
49,397
28,319
20,861
55,579
40,807
13,234
72,147
35,114
20,549
23,167
47,204
36,948
10,418
7,962
22,735
Region 6
5-YEAR
Change
(09/1014/15)
12,442
11,252
8,787
6,925
4,599
4,573
4,455
4,073
3,276
3,196
2,968
2,773
2,612
2,241
2,213
1,651
1,598
1,540
1,392
1,199
5-YEAR PCT
Growth
6.1%
19.0%
8.4%
11.0%
13.2%
10.2%
18.7%
24.3%
6.3%
8.5%
28.9%
4.0%
8.0%
12.2%
10.6%
3.6%
4.5%
17.3%
21.2%
5.6%
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
District
Conroe ISD
New Caney ISD
College Station ISD
Montgomery ISD
Magnolia ISD
Willis ISD
Huntsville ISD
Bryan ISD
Splendora ISD
Sealy ISD
Navasota ISD
Anderson-Shiro Cons ISD
Cameron ISD
Latexo ISD
Buffalo ISD
Mumford ISD
Livingston ISD
New Waverly ISD
Franklin ISD
Burton ISD
2009/10
2014/15
Enrollment Enrollment
49,629
56,363
9,609
12,979
10,102
12,534
6,714
7,936
11,691
12,458
6,264
6,915
6,291
6,699
15,579
15,984
3,382
3,629
2,612
2,803
2,883
3,055
686
823
1,606
1,684
450
527
889
953
551
612
3,999
4,059
905
964
1,049
1,103
340
388
5-YEAR
Change
(09/1014/15)
6,734
3,370
2,432
1,222
767
651
408
405
247
191
172
137
78
77
64
61
60
59
54
48
5-YEAR PCT
Growth
14.6%
35.0%
20.0%
19.6%
7.9%
12.6%
8.1%
3.4%
4.6%
5.2%
3.6%
20.3%
3.3%
10.3%
18.9%
12.1%
0.3%
2.6%
4.5%
11.0%
7
Houston New Home Ranking Report
ISD Ranked by Annual Closings – 3Q15
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
District Name
Fort Bend ISD
Katy ISD
Houston ISD
Cypress-Fairbanks ISD
Lamar CISD
Conroe ISD
Klein ISD
Humble ISD
Tomball ISD
Alvin ISD
Aldine ISD
Clear Creek ISD
New Caney ISD
Spring ISD
Goose Creek ISD
Magnolia ISD
Montgomery ISD
Dickinson ISD
Sheldon ISD
Pearland ISD
Spring Branch ISD
Pasadena ISD
Waller ISD
Barbers Hill ISD
Willis ISD
Annual Starts Annual Closings
3,461
3,324
2,937
3,186
2,563
2,836
2,462
2,579
2,609
2,257
2,157
2,101
1,656
1,699
1,155
1,207
986
1,149
1,005
961
611
730
867
723
686
685
459
449
436
416
389
384
380
384
357
365
373
365
375
306
356
264
295
262
225
219
213
202
304
193
VDL
3,625
3,234
2,058
3,249
3,347
4,182
2,039
1,438
1,916
1,416
831
1,330
670
896
423
527
683
474
687
441
935
396
355
222
597
Future
14,142
13,803
11,854
10,364
12,318
10,653
3,177
9,831
4,067
9,952
2,383
1,604
5,686
1,948
921
4,706
2,814
1,009
2,432
329
640
79
19,059
85
5,262
8
District New Home Activity
Pearland ISD
250
Starts
Closings
Housing Inventory
200
150
100
50
0
Starts
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
Total
2011
42
48
38
23
151
2012
23
61
47
30
161
2013
43
39
51
46
179
2014
42
48
89
70
249
2015
113
86
106
305
Closings
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
Total
2011
37
41
47
44
169
2012
34
38
45
47
164
2013
34
45
39
29
147
2014
53
47
38
53
191
•
Pearland ISD is on pace to start roughly 400 new homes in 2015, double
the number of starts in 2013
•
3Q15 closings more than doubled 3Q13
•
New home inventory is in a good place to sustain the current closing rate
2015
69
97
87
253
9
Active Developments
«
¬
8
COCKRELL
7
RD
ES
HU
GH
6
8
LAWHON
1
CHALLENGER
5
2
HARRIS
SHADYCREST
3
CARLESTON
SILVERLAKE
9
MAGNOLIA
«
¬
«
¬
35
SILVERCREST
288
11
4
10
MASSEY RANCH
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Subdivision
Covington Estates
Pearland Lakes
Pearland Estates
Cullen Park Estates
Avalon Terrace
Spring Meadow
Highland Crossing
Highland Park
Orchard Glen
Canterbury Park
Oakbrook Estates
Totals
Total
20
79
56
34
530
140
224
53
77
324
46
1,583
Occupied
7
8
12
1
381
125
113
0
60
225
7
939
VDL
9
44
24
26
48
15
47
49
11
50
21
344
U/C
4
27
20
7
14
7
64
4
6
49
14
216
Futures
0
0
0
0
87
0
0
0
0
0
0
87
Price Points
Elem Zone
$290K-$350K
Challenger
$315K-$420K
Challenger
$320K-$420K
Silverlake
$330K-$450K Massey Ranch
$245K-$325K
Lawhon
$190K-$240K
Lawhon
$230K-$345K
Cockrell
$265K-$320K
Cockrell
$220K-$300K
Magnolia
$195K-$240K
Magnolia
$225K-$315K
Rustic Oak
RUSTIC OAK
10
Residential Activity
Covington Estates
Covington Estates
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
20 total lots
7 occupied
4 U/C
9 VDL
Built out by mid 2016
$290K - $350K
Challenger Elementary
DAWSON
HIGH
CULLEN PKWY
CHALLENGER
LAWHON
CHALLENGER
ELEM
11
Residential Activity
Pearland Lakes
CHALLENGER
ELEM
^_
Pearland Lakes
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
79 total lots
8 occupied
44 VDL
27 U/C
Built-out by late 2016
$315K - $420K
Challenger Elementary
CHALLENGER
LAWHON
«
¬
288
SILVERLAKE
SILVERCREST
SILVERCREST
ELEM
^_
SILVERLAKE
ELEM
^_
12
Residential Activity
Avalon Terrace
DAWSON
HIGH
Current homebuilding
activity in this section
CHALLENGER
Avalon Terrace
LAWHON
•
•
•
•
•
•
530 total lots
381 occupied
87 futures
14 U/C
48 VDL
Building 50-60 in the
next 12 months
• $245K - $325K
• Lawhon Elementary
SILVERLAKE
CARLESTON
Source: Esri, DigitalGlobe, GeoEye, i-cubed, Earthstar Geographics, CNES/Airbus DS,
USDA, USGS, AEX, Getmapping, Aerogrid, IGN, IGP, swisstopo, and the GIS User
Community
13
Residential Activity
Spring Meadow Subdivision
Spring Meadow
Subdivision
LAWHON
ELEM
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
140 total lots
125 occupied
7 U/C
15 VDL
Built out by end of 2015
$190K - $240K
Lawhon Elementary
LAWHON
COCKRELL
14
Residential Activity
HARRIS
Orchard Glen
MAGNOLIA
ELEM
Orchard Glen
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
77 total lots
60 occupied
6 U/C
11 VDL
$220K - $300K
Built out by summer 2016
Magnolia Elementary
MAGNOLIA
PEARLAND
SOUTH JH
TURNER
HIGH
15
Residential Activity
Canterbury Park
HARRIS
MAGNOLIA
ELEM
«
¬
35
MAGNOLIA
Canterbury Park
•
•
•
•
•
324 total lots
225 occupied
49 U/C
55 VDL
Sec 3 with 40 lots
delivered and started
homebuilding in August
• $195K - $240K
• Magnolia Elementary
PEARLAND
SOUTH JH
SHADYCREST
TURNER
HIGH
Source: Esri, DigitalGlobe, GeoEye, i-cubed, Earthstar Geographics, CNES/Airbus DS,
USDA, USGS, AEX, Getmapping, Aerogrid, IGN, IGP, swisstopo, and the GIS User
Community
16
Residential Activity
Cullen Park Estates
Cullen Park Estates
CARLESTON
SILVERLAKE
•
•
•
•
•
•
34 total lots
1 occupied
7 U/C
26 VDL
$330K - $450K
Massey Ranch Elementary
MASSEY
RANCH
ELEM
MASSEY RANCH
17
Residential Activity
Highland Crossing
Highland Crossing
•
•
•
•
•
•
224 total lots
113 occupied
64 U/C
47 VDL
Built out by Mid 2016
Absorption Rate:
• 60 in 2015
• 51 in 2016
• $230K - $345K
• Cockrell Elementary
Highland Park
•
•
•
•
•
•
53 total lots
4 U/C
0 occupied
Building 32 in 2016
$265K - $320K
Cockrell Elementary
18
Residential Activity
Pearland Estates
LAWHON
CHALLENGER
CARLESTON
SILVERCREST
SILVERLAKE
^_
SILVERCREST
ELEM
^_
SILVERLAKE
ELEM
Pearland Estates
• 56 total lots
• 12 occupied
• 20 U/C
• 24 VDL
• Built out by summer 2016
Source: Esri, DigitalGlobe, GeoEye, i-cubed, Earthstar
Geographics,
CNES/Airbus DS, USDA, USGS, AEX, Getmapping,
• $320K
- $420K
Aerogrid, IGN, IGP, swisstopo, and the GIS User Community
• Silverlake Elementary
19
Residential Activity
Oakbrook Estates
Oakbrook Estates
SHADYCREST
ELEM
^_
• Building on the last 46
lots in the community
• 4 inventory
• 14 U/C
• 21 VDL
• $225K - $315K
• K Hovnanian Homes
• Rustic Oak Elementary
HARRIS
_
^
«
¬
35
SEARCY
HIGH
_
^
SHADYCREST
PEARLAND HIGH
RUSTIC OAK
Source: Esri, DigitalGlobe, GeoEye, i-cubed, Earthstar Geographics
CNES/Airbus DS, USDA, USGS, AEX, Getmapping, Aerogrid, IGN,
swisstopo, and the GIS User Community
20
Future Residential Activity
Province Village
PEARLAND
EAST JH
Province Village
•
•
•
•
•
•
HARRIS ELEM
90 future lots
Final plat approved in March for 75 lots
Groundwork underway
Homebuilding starting spring 2016
$230K+
Harris Elementary
HARRIS
ALEXANDER
MID
SHADYCREST
SHADYCREST
ELEM
«
¬
35
Source: Esri, DigitalGlobe, GeoEye, i-cubed, Earthstar Geographics, CNES/Airbus DS,
USDA, USGS, AEX, Getmapping, Aerogrid, IGN, IGP, swisstopo, and the GIS User
Community
21
Future Residential Activity
Bakers Landing
SABLATURA
MID
PEARLAND
WEST JH
«
¬
35
COCKRELL
^_
^_
PEARLAND
EAST JH
PACE HIGH
_
^
_
^
E BRO
AD
WA
YS
HARRIS
ELEM
_
^
T
Bakers Landing
• 80 acres
• Approved by City of Pearland
• 239 future lots
• 191 single family
• 48 townhomes
• Harris Elementary
HARRIS
ALEXANDER
MID
MAGNOLIA
«
¬
35
Source: Esri, DigitalGlobe, GeoEye, i-cubed, Earthstar Geographics,
HADYCREST
^_
22
Future Residential Activity
Massey Lakes
MASSEY RANCH
MASSEY
RANCH
ELEM
MANVEL RD
_
^
Massey Lakes
•
•
•
•
•
87 future lots
Preliminary plat approved for Sec 1
Homebuilding starting early 2016
$300K-$400K
Massey Ranch Elementary
23
Future Residential Activity
Afton Lakes
LAWHON
Afton Lakes
• 30 total lots
• Preliminary plat
approved in March
• No final plats
submitted at this time
• Carleston Elementary
CARLESTON
ELEM
^_
CARLESTON
ROGERS
MID
^_
^_
MILLER JH
24
Future Multi-Family Development
La Mariposa Apartments
SABLATURA
MID
^_
PEARLAND
WEST JH
«
¬
PACE HIGH
MAIN
COCKRELL
PEARLAND
EAST JH
^_
35
HARRIS
ELEM
^_
^_
^_
BROAD
WAY
HARRIS
La Mariposa
Apartments
• 63-unit apartment complex
under construction
• 2 three-story buildings
• All units will be market-rate
• Construction anticipated to
be complete by early 2016
• Harris Elementary
Source: Esri, DigitalGlobe, GeoEye, i-cubed, Earthstar Geographics,
CNES/Airbus DS, USDA, USGS, AEX, Getmapping, Aerogrid, IGN, IGP,
swisstopo, and the GIS User Community
25
Ten Year Forecast
By Grade Level
Year (Oct.)
2011/12
2012/13
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
2016/17
2017/18
2018/19
2019/20
2020/21
2021/22
2022/23
2023/24
2024/25
2025/26
EE
92
96
89
86
73
73
73
73
73
73
73
73
73
73
73
Pre-K
320
345
316
328
291
291
291
291
291
291
291
291
291
291
291
K
1,409
1,360
1,401
1,411
1,435
1,469
1,485
1,501
1,509
1,523
1,529
1,541
1,554
1,567
1,578
1st
1,466
1,486
1,431
1,505
1,497
1,517
1,561
1,567
1,581
1,594
1,607
1,612
1,626
1,636
1,647
2nd
1,472
1,522
1,509
1,498
1,571
1,549
1,564
1,605
1,597
1,615
1,623
1,640
1,645
1,655
1,665
3rd
1,567
1,495
1,522
1,542
1,520
1,601
1,580
1,594
1,615
1,631
1,633
1,651
1,666
1,668
1,670
4th
1,533
1,567
1,537
1,541
1,588
1,563
1,637
1,623
1,636
1,637
1,660
1,668
1,680
1,688
1,693
5th
1,527
1,575
1,608
1,583
1,593
1,655
1,636
1,721
1,696
1,735
1,711
1,740
1,751
1,772
1,770
6th
1,510
1,572
1,618
1,616
1,666
1,635
1,687
1,664
1,772
1,675
1,783
1,709
1,746
1,761
1,774
7th
1,521
1,547
1,612
1,657
1,651
1,704
1,660
1,717
1,692
1,812
1,705
1,805
1,746
1,773
1,787
8th
1,393
1,543
1,576
1,629
1,723
1,685
1,735
1,690
1,740
1,717
1,836
1,723
1,838
1,753
1,785
9th
1,425
1,464
1,624
1,714
1,746
1,885
1,832
1,876
1,834
1,878
1,854
1,965
1,853
1,961
1,879
10th
1,443
1,431
1,482
1,612
1,737
1,697
1,848
1,803
1,836
1,807
1,839
1,821
1,930
1,819
1,925
11th
1,301
1,360
1,380
1,465
1,583
1,627
1,620
1,756
1,713
1,762
1,733
1,772
1,751
1,846
1,746
12th
1,226
1,287
1,329
1,363
1,441
1,539
1,594
1,582
1,717
1,673
1,721
1,693
1,734
1,709
1,804
Total
Total Growth % Growth
19,205
19,650
445
2.3%
20,034
384
2.0%
20,550
516
2.6%
21,115
565
2.7%
21,490
375
1.8%
21,803
313
1.5%
22,063
260
1.2%
22,301
239
1.1%
22,423
122
0.5%
22,598
175
0.8%
22,704
106
0.5%
22,884
180
0.8%
22,972
88
0.4%
23,087
115
0.5%
*Yellow box = largest grade per year
*Green box = second largest grade per year
•
Pearland ISD will reach more than 22,000 students by the fall of 2018
•
5 year growth = 1,308 students
•
2020/21 enrollment = 22,423
•
10 year growth = 1,972 students
•
2025/26 enrollment = 23,087
26
Ten Year Forecast
By Elementary Campus
HISTORY
B Cockrell Elementary
CJ Harris Elementary
Challenger Elementary
EA Lawhon Elementary
HC Carleston Elementary
Magnolia Elementary
Massey Ranch Elementary
Rustic Oak Elementary
Shadycrest Elementary
Silvercrest Elementary
Silverlake Elementary
ELEMENTARY TOTALS
Elementary Absolute Growth
Elementary Percent Growth
Current
ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS
Capacity 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26
858
847
865
909
935
948
951
967
980
985
993
1,002
1,011
770
731
740
746
794
835
841
858
876
893
902
908
920
770
660
666
649
657
666
672
672
683
691
699
701
702
638
690
717
713
724
734
744
750
757
764
774
784
792
770
786
792
799
806
819
832
831
833
834
833
834
832
858
808
826
856
860
838
845
845
840
848
854
853
851
858
721
718
734
738
752
750
751
733
721
724
729
732
770
559
543
539
530
540
540
556
567
584
589
594
599
748
588
615
630
652
637
631
639
636
640
647
643
645
814
803
775
763
748
726
724
727
745
752
762
769
770
770
718
718
725
747
759
772
768
766
764
758
761
763
8,624
7,911
7,975
8,063
8,191
8,254
8,302
8,364
8,416
8,476
8,535
8,578
8,617
106
64
88
128
63
48
62
52
60
59
43
39
1.36%
0.81%
1.10%
1.59%
0.77%
0.58%
0.75%
0.62%
0.71%
0.70%
0.50%
0.45%
*Yellow box = enrollment exceeds stated campus capacity
•
Four elementary campuses are currently over stated campus capacity
•
B Cockrell Elementary may enroll more than 950 students in 2019
•
Total elementary enrollment will reach 8,000 students by next fall and 8,500
students by 2023
27
Ten Year Forecast
By Secondary Campus
Alexander Middle
Leon H Sablatura Mid
Rogers Middle
Sam Jamison Mid
MIDDLE SCHOOL TOTALS
Middle School Absolute Growth
Middle School Percent Growth
Berry Miller JH
Pearland JH East
Pearland JH South
Pearland JH West
JUNIOR HIGH TOTALS
Junior High Absolute Growth
Junior High Percent Growth
Glenda Dawson HS
Pearland HS
Pace Center
Turner College & Career HS
HIGH SCHOOL TOTAL
High School Absolute Growth
High School Percent Growth
Brazoria County JJ AEP
DISTRICT TOTALS
District Absolute Growth
District Percent Growth
HISTORY
Current
Capacity 2014/15
925
691
900
805
925
889
925
814
3,675
3,199
-27
-0.84%
900
961
900
674
875
802
900
848
3,575
3,285
100
3.14%
2,000
2,257
3,850
2,920
300
128
1,250
848
7,400
6,153
339
5.83%
2
23,274 20,550
516
2.58%
2015/16
616
893
897
853
3,259
60
1.88%
957
716
855
845
3,373
88
2.68%
2,408
2,973
120
1,001
6,502
349
5.67%
6
21,115
565
2.75%
ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS
2016/17
600
938
908
844
3,290
31
0.95%
920
718
878
872
3,388
15
0.44%
2,499
3,116
117
1,011
6,743
241
3.71%
6
21,490
375
1.78%
2017/18
639
935
907
842
3,323
33
1.00%
927
662
874
931
3,394
6
0.18%
2,553
3,215
122
999
6,889
146
2.16%
6
21,803
313
1.45%
2018/19
649
949
908
879
3,385
62
1.87%
942
651
865
948
3,406
12
0.35%
2,576
3,315
120
1,001
7,012
123
1.78%
6
22,063
260
1.19%
2019/20
683
1,010
877
898
3,468
83
2.45%
936
691
853
951
3,431
25
0.73%
2,585
3,397
119
993
7,094
83
1.18%
6
22,301
239
1.08%
2020/21
655
1,007
837
911
3,410
-58
-1.67%
946
696
903
983
3,528
97
2.83%
2,592
3,418
120
985
7,115
21
0.29%
6
22,423
122
0.55%
2021/22
650
1,024
868
952
3,494
84
2.46%
907
723
920
990
3,540
12
0.34%
2,617
3,424
120
981
7,142
27
0.37%
6
22,598
175
0.78%
2022/23
656
1,025
841
927
3,449
-45
-1.29%
868
683
950
1,026
3,527
-13
-0.37%
2,674
3,476
120
976
7,246
104
1.46%
6
22,704
106
0.47%
2023/24
670
1,044
858
925
3,497
48
1.39%
879
672
986
1,046
3,583
56
1.59%
2,631
3,541
120
971
7,263
17
0.24%
6
22,884
180
0.79%
2024/25
691
1,053
854
935
3,533
36
1.03%
863
684
956
1,022
3,525
-58
-1.62%
2,630
3,613
120
967
7,330
67
0.92%
6
22,972
88
0.38%
2025/26
701
1,056
865
922
3,544
11
0.31%
883
692
957
1,039
3,571
46
1.30%
2,616
3,651
120
962
7,349
19
0.26%
6
23,087
115
0.50%
*Yellow box = enrollment exceeds stated campus capacity
•
Berry Miller Junior High School and Glenda Dawson High School are
currently over stated capacity
•
Glenda Dawson High School is anticipated to enroll 2,500 students by 2017
•
High school enrollment is anticipated to grow by 3.7% next fall
28
§
¨¦
45
Vacant Land- Build Out Study
FUQUA
COCKRELL
LAWHON
CHALLENGER
HARRIS
SHADYCREST
CARLESTON
SILVERLAKE
SILVERCRES
«
¬
288
MAGNOLIA
T
«
¬
35
MASSEY RANCH
Zone
CARLESTON
CHALLENGER
COCKRELL
HARRIS
LAWHON
MAGNOLIA
MASSEY RANCH
RUSTIC OAK
SHADYCREST
SILVERCREST
SILVERLAKE
TOTALS
Total Acres
1,911
2,439
3,373
3,033
4,984
2,221
3,105
2,616
2,931
1,079
1,313
29,005
Total Developed Total Residential
Acres
Acres
1,215
1,469
1,942
1,598
3,058
1,441
2,028
1,552
2,135
802
854
18,092
774
877
822
734
2,265
940
1,637
1,126
1,227
519
556
11,478
Residential
Parcels
2,165
4,001
3,862
3,135
2,996
2,330
2,403
2,370
3,729
2,095
2,469
31,555
RUSTIC OAK
MF Units
844
158
1,373
503
176
298
472
509
4,333
Projected
Residential
Acres
104
118
334
349
482
124
299
312
116
83
90
2,411
Projected New
Residential Units
414
484
1,267
1,417
1,595
625
861
1,161
463
248
353
8,888
29
Build-Out Study
Zone
CARLESTON
CHALLENGER
COCKRELL
HARRIS
LAWHON
MAGNOLIA
MASSEY RANCH
RUSTIC OAK
SHADYCREST
SILVERCREST
SILVERLAKE
TOTALS
Build-Out
Build-Out Middle
Elementary
Students
Students
845
810
1,005
1,070
1,172
941
849
858
677
926
811
9,964
352
329
382
443
431
364
352
384
285
379
380
4,081
Build-Out JH
Students
Build-Out HS
Students
Total Build-Out
Students
336
356
364
420
428
386
334
378
320
340
377
4,039
653
647
786
841
880
678
602
788
660
544
660
7,739
2,186
2,142
2,537
2,774
2,911
2,369
2,137
2,408
1,942
2,189
2,228
25,823
•
Pearland ISD is expected to have more than 25,823 students at build-out
•
At projected build-out Pearland ISD would need:
•
13-14 elementary schools at 750 capacity (11 existing)
•
Middle School capacity expansion to 1,000 – 1,100 (4 existing)
•
Junior High capacity expansion to 1,000 – 1,100 (4 existing)
•
High School capacity expansion to 7,800
30
Summary
• Houston will continue to have positive job and population growth
due to its diverse economy.
• Third quarter new home starts in the district are up 20% over third
quarter of 2014.
• Vacant developed lot supply is rising but is still low to sustain the
current start rate.
• With the exception of Baker’s Landing, most of the remaining future
lots within Pearland ISD will be small infill developments.
• PISD can expect an increase of approximately 1,300 students during
the next 5 years.
• 2020/21 enrollment projection: 22,423.
• PISD is projected to have more than 23,000 students for the 2025/26
school year.
31