the On-Site Program

Transcription

the On-Site Program

2016 Spring Meeting
May 15–18, 2016
Sheraton Seattle Hotel
Seattle, WA
2016 Spring Meeting
May 15–18, 2016
Seattle, WA
Table of Contents
General Information..................................................................................................................................................... 3
Sponsors & Advertisers................................................................................................................................................. 6
Featured Speaker........................................................................................................................................................... 8
General & Concurrent Sessions.................................................................................................................................... 9
New Fellows and Associates................................................................................................................................... 25-36
New Chartered Enterprise Risk Analysts..................................................................................................................... 36
Personal Attendance Record........................................................................................................................................ 52
Meeting Schedule....................................................................................................................................................... 54
Spouse/Guest Program................................................................................................................................................ 57
Hotel Map.................................................................................................................................................................. 60
Wi-Fi Info
Network: CAS2016
Passcode: casspring
Continuing Education
The CAS Continuing Education Policy applies to all ACAS and FCAS members who provide actuarial services. Actuarial services
are defined in the CAS Code of Professional Conduct as “professional services provided to a Principal by an individual acting in the
capacity of an actuary. Such services include the rendering of advice, recommendations, findings, or opinions based upon actuarial
considerations.” Members who are or could be subject to the continuing education requirements of a national actuarial organization
can meet the requirements of the CAS Continuing Education Policy by satisfying the continuing education requirements established
by a national actuarial organization recognized by the Policy.
This activity may qualify for up to 15.2* CE Credits for the Spring Meeting for CAS members. Participants should claim credit
commensurate with the extent of their participation in the activity. CAS members earn 1 CE Credit per 50 minutes of educational
session time not to include breaks or lunch.
*The amount of CE credit that can be earned for participating in this activity must be assessed by the individual attendee. It also may be different for individuals who are
subject to the requirements of organizations other than the American Academy of Actuaries.
Consent to Use of Photographic Images
A photographer will be present at the CAS Spring Meeting. Registration and attendance at, or participation in, CAS meetings, seminars and other activities constitutes an agreement by the registrant to CAS’s use and distribution (both now and in the future) of the
registrant or attendee’s image or voice in photographs, videotapes, electronic reproduction and audiotapes of such events and activities.
Antitrust Notice
The Casualty Actuarial Society is committed to adhering strictly to the letter and spirit of the antitrust laws. Meetings conducted
under the auspices of the CAS are designed solely to provide a forum for the expression of various points of view on topics described
in the programs or agendas for such meetings. Under no circumstances shall CAS meetings be used as a means for competing companies or firms to reach an understanding — expressed or implied — that restricts competition or in any way impairs the ability of
members to exercise independent business judgment regarding matters affecting competition. It is the responsibility of all meeting
participants to be aware of antitrust regulations, to prevent any written or verbal discussions that appear to violate these laws, and to
adhere in every respect to the CAS antitrust compliance policy.
For more complete information regarding the CAS antitrust compliance policy, please refer to the CAS Website at http://bit.
ly/20UMw6Z.
Casualty Actuarial Society’s Envisioned Future (from the CAS Strategic Plan)
The CAS will be recognized globally as the premier organization in advancing the practice and application of casualty actuarial
science and educating professionals in general insurance, including property and casualty and similar risk exposure.
CAS Program Planning Committee
Beverly Phillips, Chairperson
Linda Brobeck, Vice Chairperson
Frank Gribbon, Vice Chairperson
Keith Allen
Carl Ashenbrenner
Benoit Carrier
Kudakwashe Chibanda
Barry Franklin
Michael Henk
Sarah Hunter
Martin King
Dustin Loeffler
Kenneth Rupert
Sandra Santomenno
David Snow
Richard Yocius
Raisa Zarkhin
The Board of Directors
Stephen Lowe.................................................................................................................................................................President
Nancy Braithwaite.................................................................................................................................................President-Elect
Robert Miccolis.....................................................................................................................................Immediate Past President
Kendra Felisky
Barry Franklin
Wesley Griffiths
Jim Guszcza
Larry Haefner
Mary Hosford
Elected Directors
Jessica (Weng Kah) Leong
Donald Mango
Camille Minogue
Chris Nyce
Robert Walling
Robert Wolf
Appointed Directors
Brad Monterio
Frank Majors
Hemant Shah
Executive Council
Stephen Lowe.................................................................................................................................................................President
Nancy Braithwaite.................................................................................................................................................President-Elect
Sean McDermott........................................................................................................................... Vice President-Administration
Steven Armstrong................................................................................................................................Vice President-Admissions
Jeff Courchene................................................................................................................................. Vice President-International
Roosevelt Mosley.................................................................................................. Vice President-Marketing & Communications
Julia Stenberg.................................................................................................................... Vice President-Professional Education
David Cummings..........................................................................................................Vice President-Research & Development
Cynthia Ziegler.......................................................................................................................................CAS Executive Director
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CAS Meeting App — Sponsored by ISO
Download the free CAS Meeting app to your smartphone or tablet and make the most of your time while
you’re with us at the meeting. Get real-time schedule and speaker updates, the most current version of
the list of attendees, maps of the hotel property and meeting space and more! You can also follow the
Spring Meeting Twitter feed and join the conversation.
iPhone and iPad users — search “casualty actuarial society” on the Apple App Store.
Android users — search “casualty actuarial society” on the Google Play Store.
Blackberry, Windows, others — go to this address on your smartphones (omit www): cas.gatherdigital.com.
Connecting with fellow attendees through the mobile app’s messaging feature is a great way to network up to and during the
event. You may also create a profile of yourself that other event attendees can view. To enable this optional feature, open the app,
go to “More” and then “My Account” to establish a password. Please use the email that you used to register for the conference.
Wireless Access — Sponsored by Milliman
Attendees of the CAS Spring Meeting have access to complimentary Wi-Fi in the meeting rooms.
Wi-Fi Info
Network: CAS2016
Passcode: casspring
Tweet from the 2016 Spring Meeting!
What’s happening at the 2016 Spring Meeting?
We want to hear from you! Tweet about the Spring Meeting
educational sessions and meeting events using the hashtag #CASspring.
Follow the CAS on Twitter @CASact
Not using Twitter yet?
Text “CASact” to 40404 to Follow the CAS on Twitter
And Follow the Prompts to Sign Up!
Social Media
The CAS is on Facebook, Twitter and LinkedIn! Stay informed by following the CAS on social media for excusive updates
on CAS activities! The CAS Facebook, Twitter and LinkedIn pages will feature many different topics including conference
updates, online discussions and industry updates. Join and connect with peers and colleagues and discuss issues important to
you.
If you cannot access Facebook, Twitter and LinkedIn from your office, please consider signing up to follow us from your
personal account at home.
Please visit our website at casact.org and click the social media widgets to find our pages!
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General Information
For more information on the following, please consult the CAS Spring Meeting website, www.casact.org/spring, or the Spring
Meeting app on your smartphone.
Speaker Opinions
The opinions expressed by speakers at this event are their own and do not necessarily reflect the positions of the CAS.
Registration Hours
The registration desk will be open as follows:
•
Sunday, May 15
4:00 p.m. – 6:30 p.m.
•
Monday, May 16
7:00 a.m. – 5:00 p.m. •
Tuesday, May 17
7:00 a.m. – 2:00 p.m. •
Wednesday, May 18
7:00 a.m. – 11:45 a.m. Registration – 2nd Floor Pre-Function Area
Registration – 2nd Floor Pre-Function Area
Hotel Information
1400 Sixth Avenue
Seattle, Washington 98101, United States of America
Main Phone: +1-209-621-9000
Checkout time is 12:00 p.m. Those checking out before the conclusion of the meeting may check their bags at the bell desk of
the hotel. The CAS is not responsible for lost or stolen items left unattended in public areas of the hotel. CAS staff is unable to
accept any bags or other personal items at the registration desk.
Security Note: When leaving the meeting room for an extended period of time, please take valuables and personal belongings
with you. Neither the CAS nor the Sheraton may be held responsible for lost or stolen items.
Suggested Attire
Business casual attire is suggested for the meeting sessions and receptions. It is best to wear layered clothing as meeting rooms tend
to fluctuate in temperature. Please dress in casual attire for the Tuesday evening buffet dinner at the Seattle Aquarium.
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Celebration of New Members
Monday, May 16, 8:15 a.m. – 9:00 a.m., Grand Ballroom BCD
All meeting attendees are invited and encouraged to attend this session — come celebrate the achievements of new CAS members
and listen to the Address to Members, presented by former CAS President Wayne Fisher.
Tuesday Evening Buffet Dinner — Sponsored by Liberty Mutual
6:30 p.m. – 9:30 p.m., Seattle Aquarium
The CAS meets the sea for entertainment and education as attendees are treated to a quintessential Pacific Northwest experience!
Tuesday evening’s buffet dinner takes place at the Seattle Aquarium, located on Seattle’s historic downtown waterfront. Guests
will have access to the entire facility, including Puget Sound Hall, Life on the Edge, mammal exhibits, and the Underwater Dome,
with Aquarium docents available to answer questions. There will also be a DJ spinning tunes to entice guests onto the dance floor
set against an oceanic backdrop. Buses will be provided continuously throughout the evening for CAS Spring Meeting attendees
between the Sheraton Seattle Hotel and Seattle Aquarium. Alternately, the Aquarium is less than a mile from the Sheraton, or
about a 15-minute walk.
Interactive Live Streaming at the Spring Meeting
New for the Spring Meeting, participants will join a select few of the Spring Meeting sessions virtually. Viewers will participate
live in a few of sessions remotely from around the globe. Participants attending virtually will have the opportunity to interact
with other virtual attendees as well as pose questions to the speakers during the sessions.
Live Streaming Sessions
Tuesday, May 17, 8:00 a.m. – 9:30 a.m.
General Session 2: Data Visualization
Tuesday, May 17, 10:00 a.m. – 11:15 a.m.
C-7: Disruptive Forces Facing the Industry
Tuesday, May 17, 1:15 p.m. – 2:30 p.m.
C-21: Incorporating Predictive Analytics in Reserving: Why and How?
Tuesday, May 17, 5:00 p.m. – 6:15 p.m.
C-12: Interaction among Actuaries, Predictive Modelers and Underwriters
Networking Activity — Dinner Groups
Monday, May 16, 6:30 p.m., CAS Registration Desk
Not sure what to do once Monday’s sessions are over? Sign up for a dinner group at the CAS Registration Desk and explore
Seattle’s culinary scene with other attendees from the seminar. This is a great networking opportunity! Dinner groups* will meet
at the CAS Registration Desk at least 30 minutes before the time of the dinner reservation and walk together to the restaurant.
If interested, please sign up at the CAS Registration Desk. (Limited space available. Participate on a first-come, first-served
basis.)
*Participants are responsible for their own expenses. Please note that CAS Dinner Groups are purely for informal networking
and not third-party business.
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Networking Reception, Sponsored by the Joint Risk Management Section
Monday, May 16, 6:30 p.m. – 7:30 p.m., Jefferson Room, 4th Floor, Union Tower
Open to all Spring Meeting attendees who desire to know more about the CAS/CIA/SOA Joint Risk Management Section and
to network with other ERM practitioners.
Sessions by Theme
Each concurrent session is grouped by a primary theme, although sessions may cover multiple themes. See session titles on page 52.
Corresponding Concurrent Sessions and Times
Session Themes
Business Skills
CAS
Catastrophes
Commercial Lines
Data Management
Emerging Issues
ERM
Financial
Health Care
International
Personal Lines
Predictive Modeling
Pricing
Product Management
Professionalism
Regulatory
Reinsurance
Research
Reserving
Workers’ Comp
Monday,
10:45 – 12:00
C-18
C-31
C-2, C-10
C-18
C-7, C-19
Monday,
1:30 – 2:45
Tuesday,
10:00 – 11:15
C-16
C-26
C-14
C-27
C-25
C-1
C-20
C-10
Tuesday,
1:15 – 2:30
C-33
Wednesday,
8:00 – 9:15
C-25
C-7
C-11
C-30
C-5
C-6
C-9
C-3
C-21
C-3, C-12
C-21
C-32
C-23, C-32
P-1
C-15, C-21
P-1
C-21
C-24
C-28
C-2
C-17
C-4
C-28, C-27
C-1, C-4
C-13
C-13
C-29
C-4
C-8
P-2
C-4
C-22
2016 CAS Spring Meeting Rating System
No prior knowledge of the subject matter is assumed.
Little or no technical content.
General knowledge of the subject matter is assumed.
Moderate technical content.
Working knowledge of the subject matter is assumed.
Moderate to highly technical content.
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Sponsors & Advertisers
The CAS appreciates the support of the 2016 Spring Meeting Sponsors.
EY
Welcome Reception Sponsor, Give-Away Item
Sponsor, Advertiser
EzraPenland.com
Ezra Penland Actuarial Recruitment
Give-Away Item Sponsor
Actuarial Recruitment
Milliman
Luncheon Sponsor, Wireless Access Sponsor,
Give-Away Sponsor
Pryor Associates Executive Search
Tote Bag Sponsor, Give-Away Item Sponsor
Actuarial Careers, Inc.
Give-Away Item Sponsor
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Sponsors & Advertisers
ISO
Meeting App Sponsor
Red Mountain Technologies
Charging Station Sponsor, Give-Away Item
Sponsor
FIS
Networking Break Sponsor
Liberty Mutual Insurance
Tuesday Evening Buffet Dinner Sponsor, Room
Key Sponsor, Advertiser
Pinnacle Actuarial Resources, Inc.
Breakfast Sponsor, Networking Break Sponsor
The Travelers Companies, Inc.
Give-Away Item Sponsor, Advertiser
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Featured Speaker
ROBERT STEPHENS
F-1: Featured Speaker
May 16, 2016, 9:15 a.m. – 10:15 a.m., Grand Ballroom BCD
A native of Chicago, Stephens left a scholarship at the Art Institute of Chicago in 1990 to pursue a
degree in computer science at the University of Minnesota. While at the University, he eventually became head of a lab building flight and driving simulators and started a computer consulting business.
In April 1994, after three years at the University of Minnesota, he formed The Geek Squad with $200.
In 2002 The Geek Squad acquired Best Buy and opened Geek Squad precincts in all Best Buy properties
worldwide. With over 24,000 agents, The Geek Squad is now the world’s largest technology support
company offering online, in-store and in-home support. Stephens served as chief technology officer
for Best Buy until 2012 when he relocated to San Francisco with his family to pursue his next start-up.
In 2016 Stephens co-founded Assist, a messaging service that allows consumers to access all local services like taxis, reservations,
flower and courier delivery — all via text and messaging platforms like Facebook.
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Liberty Mutual Insurance is an equal opportunity employer. We acknowledge, welcome, and accept the differences that each employee brings to the workplace.
General and Concurrent Sessions
More detail about the sessions and speakers is found on the CAS Meeting app. All sessions will be recorded (simultaneously
audio, slides), except where indicated.
MONDAY, MAY 16, 2016
9:15 a.m. – 10:15 a.m.
F-1: Featured Speaker
Grand Ballroom BCD
This session will be webcast live.
Before Uber, there was another service that let you push a button and summon a person to your home or office for service: The
Geek Squad.
Robert Stephens, founder of The Geek Squad (1994), and former CTO of Best Buy will discuss some of the biggest trends of
the coming decade. The next 10 years will witness change 100 times greater than anything we have seen thus far, mainly due to
mobile computing and wireless sensors. Stephens presents a compelling case that Groupon, AirBnB, OpenTable, ZipCar, Uber
and many others are all the same type of company, and their business model will disrupt every sector of the economy and create
new opportunities. Every company is in the service business now. Operations are not enough: companies must design experiences
if they are going to stand out. Technology and software will be key to building those services.
Speaker: Robert Stephens, Founder, The Geek Squad; Co-founder, Assist; Former CTO, Best Buy
CONCURRENT SESSIONS 1
10:45 a.m. – 12:00 p.m.
C-2: Actuarial Lone Rangers: What to Do When the Nearest Fellow is (Hundreds of)
Miles Away
Aspen
Working as a solo company actuary and wondering if there are others in a similar position who perhaps face similar issues?
Don’t want to work for yourself but thinking it might be interesting to find an employer who valued your services more highly?
Wondering what it would be like to get away from a big, bureaucratic environment? Come hear from others who have made the
leap and learn from their experiences.
Learning Objectives:
• Recognize the challenges and opportunities of being the only actuary in a company.
• Identify methods, techniques and solutions that do not require extensive actuarial resources.
• Express from a company’s perspective what is required to recruit, train, integrate and leverage a first actuary.
Moderator/Panelist: Meyer Lehman, Chief Actuary, Continental Western Group
Panelists: Melanie Pennington, Director of State Operations, Liberty Mutual Insurance
Brant Wipperman, Pricing Actuary, Peace Hills Insurance
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Ravenna
C-4: The Biggest Problem with Your Pricing Model Is Your Reserving Model
Using historical data to develop a rate plan requires assumptions about loss development. Often these assumptions are broad
and do not distinguish between very different loss development tendencies across rating variables. Biased pricing indications are
the natural result. If the company is conservatively reserved, with case savings common, slower developing classes of business are
likely to be overpriced. If case-incurred losses tend to develop upward, the slower developing classes are likely to be underpriced.
By changing the reserving model paradigm from triangle squaring to one that reflects differences across all of the rating variables,
these issues are revealed. The differences in indicated rating factors are often dramatic.
Learning Objective:
• Enhance your pricing model by properly reflecting distinct differences in development patterns across all rating variables.
Moderator/Panelist: Chris Gross, President, Gross Consulting
Panelist: Andrew Doll, Chief Operating Officer, Capital Insurance Group
C-7: Disruptive Forces Facing the Insurance Industry
Metropolitan Ballroom B
In recent years, we are seeing major shifts and trends that point to where the insurance industry is headed long-term. Widespread
adoption of mobile technologies is streamlining communication like never before, and unlike past years, the majority of insurance
companies, customer interactions are now happening online without ever speaking face-to-face and are creating more transparency for the consumer. Sharing economy (ride sharing, home sharing, etc.), driverless cars, smart homes, and other technological
advances are changing insurance exposures. This session will focus on the following latest disruptive trends affecting the insurance
industry:
1. The power of true shopper data from unbiased digital marketplaces (with multiple carriers), to build or optimize new insurance products.
2. The immediate impact on insurance caused by millennial shoppers and the global shift to mobile transactions.
3. Understand the growth in the ride sharing economy and how that impacts personal auto insurance as we traditionally understand it.
• Identify emerging trends in the marketplace that may disrupt the insurance industry as we know it.
• Support the need for insurance finance modernization.
Moderator/Panelist:
Anita Sathe, VP Commercial, CoverHound Insurance
Panelists:
Keith Moore, CEO, CoverHound Insurance
James Guszcza, Chief Data Scientist, Deloitte Consulting LLP
Carolyn Yau, Director Commercial Actuarial, Homesite Insurance
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Cedar
C-10: Health Care Reform — Where It’s All Going
This session will not be recorded.
The Affordable Care Act was signed into effect in 2010 and while it has had significant impact on the number of “uninsured”
Americans, its full impact on the property/casualty industry has not yet been felt. This session will discuss the implications of
this legislation on both the P&C industry and its customers, both corporate and personal.
Learning Objective:
• To be better prepared to price Bodily Injury coverage or to set BI reserves.
Moderator/Panelist: Ann Conway, Managing Director, Willis Towers Watson
Panelist: John Ruser, President & CEO, Workers Compensation Research Institute
Redwood
C-13: Lights! Camera! Professionalism!
Come enjoy the acting of some fine fellow actuaries who will take on several skits involving professional dilemmas. These new
skits for 2016 will lead to some lively and educational audience discussions. You will walk away from this session with a better
understanding of the ASOPs, codes of conduct and how to apply them when you face your own professional ethical dilemmas.
This session may provide attendees with Professionalism Continuing Education credits.
• Apply the Code of Professional Conduct Precepts, Actuarial Standards of Practice (ASOPs) and the Statement of Principles
to actuarial work.
• Recognize actuarial gray areas and respond in a manner that upholds the reputation of the actuarial profession.
• Utilize resources available to help actuaries abide by the standards.
Facilitators: Adam Swartz, Vice President - Actuarial Services, Securian Casualty Company
Patricia Teufel, Past President, CAS
Kathryn Walker, Pinnacle Actuarial Resources, Inc.
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C-17: Predictive Modeling: Tips for Data Scientists and Actuaries and How to
Implement a Predictive Model
Metropolitan Ballroom A
In this session we explore two key issues. First, Kevin Bingham and Michael Green will provide helpful tips on how actuaries and
data scientists can apply data analytics to solve their toughest business challenges. Tips include framing the business problem,
explain ability vs. “the perfect model lift”, choosing the right variables, data wrangling, bringing models to life, getting outside
your comfort zone, red flags and warning signs, and more.
Next, Ridhima Handa and Jessica Leong will talk about one of the most important things to consider when you’re building a
model — implementation. Do you ascribe to the “If you build it, they will come” theory of model building? What have your
experiences been with IT, claims, underwriters and actuaries when trying to build and deploy a model? This session will look past
the statistics and discuss ways to ensure that models are effectively deployed, accepted and executed.
• Understand how to use data analytics to solve business problems.
• Understand how to ensure that your model is effectively deployed, accepted and executed.
Moderator/Panelist: Erin Olson, Director P&C Pricing, USAA
Panelists: Kevin Bingham, Principal, Deloitte Consulting
Michael Greene, Senior Manager, Deloitte Consulting
Ridhima Handa, Predictive Analytics, Zurich North America
Jessica Leong, Predictive Analytics Execution Lead, Zurich North America
Issaquah
C-18: Presenting Your Data Graphically
Presenting data graphically can help to communicate your message more effectively. The physical layout of the graphics can
enhance or inhibit your ability to communicate, or can even mislead your audience. In this session, we will cover best practices
for the graphic representation of data, showing both good and bad examples, and discussing why the good examples are superior.
• Communicate more effectively when representing data in graphical form.
• Appreciate the similarities and differences between working in a large actuarial department and being the chief junior.
• Assess and differentiate the options for graphical representation of data.
Moderator/Panelist: Brian Mullen, Director, Pricing Analytics & Technical Excellence, Zurich
Panelist: Aaron Hillebrandt, Consulting Actuary, Pinnacle Actuarial Resources
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Willow
C-19: Purple Haze: Marijuana Legalization and the Impacts on Insurance
This session will discuss the impact of marijuana legalization in Washington and other states on the insurance industry. The session
will start with a brief history of prohibition/legalization of marijuana. This will be followed by the interaction between Federal
and State laws and authorities. The session will then discuss the difficulties of how legal marijuana and its effects are currently
insured in the marketplace. Comparisons and contrasts to similar exposures will be discussed. Finally, a panelist will discuss,
from an insurance perspective, the intended and unintended coverages as well as additional possible risks to the insurer. This will
be followed by Q&A from the audience.
• Audience will understand legal issues surrounding federal and state conflicts.
• Audience will understand the demand and supply for insurance from marijuana industry.
• Audience will understand risk faced by insurers.
Moderator: Carl Ashenbrenner, Consulting Actuary, Milliman
Panelists: Marshall Gilinsky, Shareholder, Anderson Kill
Paul Ruiz, Claim Executive - Second Vice President, Gen Re
Matthew Neely, Co-Founder, SkyTree Capital Partners
Ballard
C-31: What the CAS Staff Actuary Means to You
Early in 2016, the CAS hired their first staff actuary. What does this mean for the CAS? What does it mean for you? Why now?
Get answers to these questions and many more with this interactive discussion with Rick Gorvett, the first CAS staff actuary. You’ll
hear about his role and responsibilities, and participate in a Q&A session to get all of your specific questions answered. Gorvett
will help you develop a broader understanding of the CAS and its current initiatives, and you’ll leave with an understanding and
appreciation for the CAS structure, especially the interaction between volunteers and staff.
You will also have the unique opportunity to contribute to the shaping of the staff actuary’s role by suggesting ideas and issues
that may benefit from staff actuary involvement, all while earning CE credit!
•
Gain familiarity with the activities and role of the new staff actuary, across a range of areas, including research, education and
engagement.
•
Contribute to the shaping of the staff actuary function by suggesting ideas and issues, both during and after the session, that
may benefit from staff actuary involvement.
• Contribute ideas for research and for engagement of the CAS with other stakeholders and organizations
Moderator: Michael Henk, Consulting Actuary, Milliman
Panelist: Rick Gorvett, Staff Actuary, Casualty Actuarial Society
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1:30 p.m. – 2:45 p.m.
Aspen
C-1: Actuarial Involvement in Program Business
The intent for the presentation is to discuss the role actuaries can play in program business. It’s a growing sector within the industry,
more actuaries are being employed at MGAs, and carriers continue to increase emphasis on program business. This presentation
will provide an overview of the program market, present challenges an actuary may face when analyzing new programs, as well as
guidance for how to price a program.
• Gain an understanding of the program market and why it is a focus of the insurance industry.
• Key issues an actuary should consider when performing due diligence on a new program.
• Better understand some of the most common pricing issues facing the actuary analyzing a program.
Moderator/Panelist: Art Zaremba, Chief Actuary, Glencar Underwriting Managers
Panelist: Isaac Mashitz, Group Chief Pricing Actuary, AmTrust
C-4R: The Biggest Problem with Your Pricing Model Is Your Reserving Model
See description on page 10.
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C-8: Fair Valuation of Insurance-Linked Securities and Fully Collateralized
Reinsurance
Willow
The insurance-linked securities (ILS) and fully collateralized reinsurance markets grew exponentially during the past several years,
driven primarily by the low interest rate environment and investors’ desire to search for returns uncorrelated to the traditional
financial markets. Despite this growth, the ILS and fully collateralized reinsurance markets are thinly traded and market prices
are determined mainly on a subjective basis by a very limited number of parties directly involved in the transaction. In order for
ILS and fully collateralized reinsurance to be considered as legitimate asset classes by the investment community and to maximize their liquidity, a robust fair valuation framework has been developed that incorporates three key factors: (1) risk run-off
due to seasonality and actual events; (2) general market price movement reflecting supply and demand; and (3) macroeconomic
conditions, particularly interest rates. This presentation will provide details on how each of these three important factors is determined and utilized to assess the fair valuation of individual transactions. With this more rigorous framework, fund managers
and independent third parties can objectively evaluate the fair valuation of an ILS or fully collateralized reinsurance portfolio in
much more detail using this scientifically sound approach. More secondary trading of this market and increased overall liquidity
should result from this robust fair valuation framework. Also, this framework can be utilized to build forward-looking tradable
indexes. Those indexes can be used to construct exchange traded funds (ETFs) for cat risk, which will allow participation from
individual investors.
• Build forward-looking tradable indexes.
• Evaluate the fair valuation of an ILS or fully collateralized reinsurance portfolio.
Moderator:
David Snow, Executive Vice President, Willis Re, Inc.
Panelists:
Kevin Huang, Founder and CEO, Huang & Associates Analytics, Inc.
Lixin Zeng, CEO, AlphaCat Managers Ltd.
David Third, Senior Consultant, Willis Towers Watson
Redwood
C-13R: Lights! Camera! Professionalism!
Facilitators: Adam Swartz, Vice President - Actuarial Services, Securian Casualty Company
Elie Bochner, Senior Consultant, EY
Patrick Woods, Retired
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C-20: Recognizing Trends and Managing Risk in Tomorrow’s Insurance Market
Actuaries have embraced predictive analytics. It’s a rigorous way to be predictive. Right?
This session will explore when to rely on historical data and predictive analytics, and when to rely on human judgment to make
predictions about the future.
Panelists will discuss the significant changes in the P&C insurance market over the past decade as a springboard for looking to
what the future may hold. The next decade promises to alter the marketplace even more fundamentally than the last. In the current
environment, it is more important than ever for actuaries to be mindful of trends and information outside of traditional insurance market data. This session will analyze trends and look at potential market disruptors such as alternative capital, technological
developments, the sharing economy and the like.
•
Obtain a wide-lens view of major trends in the U.S. P&C industry over the past 20 years, examining changes in premiums,
expenses, investments and losses over this time period.
• Explore current socioeconomic develeopments and the impact on the P&C industry.
• Learn the differences in performance and risk preference between various segments of the insurance market.
Moderator/Panelist: Susan Bermender, Director Governance, Planning & Support, USAA
Panelists: Jerry Theodorou, Conning
Blake Berman, VP, Strategic Advisory, Guy Carpenter
C-25: Surprise, Surprise — The Next “Big One” Might Just Be a Casualty
Catastrophe!
Ravenna
Although casualty catastrophes represent two of the three most costly insurance events ever experienced, the industry devotes
relatively little attention to these risks, especially in comparison with property cats. Even those insurance managers who recognize
the casualty cat exposure tend to think that the unpredictability of these losses makes them too hard to describe and quantify. This
session will introduce how casualty catastrophes are being modeled and that reasonable estimates of the dimensions, magnitude
and even the likely drivers of these losses can be developed. The goal of this session is to encourage greater focus on this critical risk.
• Understand the risk that casualty catastrophes pose.
• Learn how casualty catastrophes are modeled.
• Understand the estimates and drivers of the losses that underlie these risks.
Moderator/Panelist: Stephen D’Arcy, Emeritus Professor of Finance, University of Illinois
Panelists: Rachel Abramovitz, Senior Vice President, Willis Re
James Blinn, Executive Vice President - Product Management, Advisen
Jessica Schuler, Manager of Global Client Development & Actuary, Praedicat, Inc.
Stefan Holzberger, Senior Vice President and Chief Rating Officer, AM Best
16
Issaquah
C-27: Update on iCAS and the Coming of New Specialist Credentials
Bob Miccolis, Wayne Fisher and Ann Conway will provide an overview of how the CAS sees iCAS as an innovative approach
to blend together the skills of actuaries and data scientists to address complex business challenges. Rather than perpetuate the
perception that there is a “great divide” between actuaries and data scientists, iCAS envisions a collaborative, multi-disciplinary
approach of complementary skill sets.
Peter Wu, Steve Mildenhall and Jim Guzscza will delve into the specific body of knowledge, technical skills and methodologies
identified to qualify for a certified specialist credential in predictive analytics. This certification will include a requirement for
insurance domain as well as data science and predictive modeling knowledge, including data concepts and data skills (structured/
unstructured, sampling, classifying and queries), data exploration and visualization tools, programming tools, predictive models
using OLS and GLM, machine/statistical learning and other techniques and methodologies.
• Understand how iCAS will operate and deliver quantitative certifications that meet business needs and qualify practitioners
as certified specialists.
• Provide input to the design of the membership structure of iCAS and suggest ways to create vibrant communities within
iCAS that complement and expand upon the CAS as an actuarial organization.
•
Appreciate the depth and breadth of the knowledge, competencies and applications to business needs, subject matter required
and the learning objectives to be incorporated into iCAS’ initial credential in predictive analytics.
Moderator/Panelist:
Bob Miccolis, Director, Deloitte Consulting LLP and Immediate Past President, CAS
Panelists:
Wayne Fisher, former Group Chief Risk Officer, Zurich Financial
Ann Conway, Managing Director, Willis Towers Watson
Stephen Mildenhall, Chairman, Aon Analytics, Aon
Peter Wu, Director, Deloitte Consulting
Jim Guszcza, Chief Data Scientist, Deloitte Consulting LLP
17
C-28: Using Actuarial Methods to Minimize Chronic Disease
Cedar
The health care sector is the largest risk facing first-world and developing nations. Cost, lack of patient motivation and political
risk make implementing any changes very difficult. Population demographics and modern lifestyles are expected to increase the
incidence and prevalence of chronic and other diseases across all age strata. Traditionally, it is post-diagnosis when action is taken,
though the ability to reverse losses then may be almost impossible.
Especially in a public-funded health care system that integrates actuarial and clinical practice, we have the opportunity to achieve
the triple aim: improve the individual experience of care; improve the health of populations; and reduce the per capita costs of care
for populations. A triple win outcome of these aims are: patients do not want to become very ill with a life full of appointments,
prescription protocols, etc.; providers would be more satisfied helping patients avoid expected health decline; and the system can
save resources. Reduced utilization occurs by improving the health status and quality of life of citizens.
With the use of actuarial tools — in particular, predictive modeling — high-risk citizens may be identified very accurately and
early so expected future utilization and costs may be minimized or avoided. This is possible well before diagnosis/incidence, so
these high risk patients may be assisted to change their expected trajectory. Cost savings occur because those identified do not
need the amount or intensity of interventions expected.
• Apply actuarial methods and achieve maximum ROI.
• Maximize the predictive power of models.
Moderator: Keith Allen, SVP, Actuary, Medical Mutual Liability Insurance Society of Maryland
Panelists: Ian Duncan, Professor, Dept. of Statistics & Applied Probability, University of California,
Santa Barbara
Ella Young, Director, Actuarial Analytics, Vancouver Coastal Health
18
P-2: Variance Paper 1
Ballard
#1: Advances in Common Shock Modeling
In this session, the concept of Common Shock, or Contagion, modeling will be introduced through an illustration of its incorporation within traditional collective risk modeling. In particular, the ease of implementation within Frequency, Severity, or
Aggregate Loss simulation procedures will be described. Closed-form expressions for the resultant volatilities and correlations
will be presented, as well as the ability of the model to produce empirically consistent correlations, across several lines of business,
using only a parsimonious set of parameters. Finally, the results from several case studies, employing empirical industry data, will
be used to demonstrate the expediency of Common Shock modeling for reinsurance treaty pricing and risk aggregation.
• Validate the Contagion Models using real-life data.
• Apply the Contagion Models in reinsurance treaty pricing and aggregation.
#2: Risk Classification for Claim Counts and Losses Using Regression Models for Location, Scale and Shape
This paper presents and compares different risk classification models for the frequency and severity of claims employing regression models for location, scale and shape. The differences between these models are analyzed through the mean and the variance
of the annual number of claims and the costs of claims of the insureds, who belong to different risk classes and interesting results
about claiming behavior are obtained. Furthermore, the resulting a priori premiums rates are calculated via the expected value
and standard deviation principles with independence between the claim frequency and severity components assumed.
Moderator:
Wesley Griffiths, 2VP and Actuary, The Travelers Companies
Panelists:
Nikolaos Frangos, Professor in Statistics, Athens University of Economics and Business
Paul Ferrara, AVP Actuary, Tokio Marine Technologies, LLC
Z. Ming Li, Chief Scientific Officer, Tokio Marine Technologies, LLC
19
GENERAL SESSION 1
3:40 p.m. – 4:55 p.m.
G-1: Twenty Five Years of Actuarial Research: Successes and Open Problems
Grand Ballroom BCD
This session will be webcast live.
The past quarter century has seen many advances in actuarial and risk management science. The role and importance of actuaries,
and especially property-casualty actuaries, has increased enormously, and actuaries are now employed in disciplines that did not
exist or were only beginning to become established in the early 1990s.
This session will survey research and technical developments in actuarial science broadly, discussing the progress we have made
as well as the important current issues in need of additional research. The talk will be arranged around four key research areas:
(1) predictive modeling; (2) catastrophe modeling; (3) capital modeling and enterprise risk management; and (4) loss reserving.
Stephen Mildenhall will speak for the first half of the session, the panelists will respond, and then we will have extended Q&A
with the attendees.
•
Obtain a solid appreciation for the great strides made in actuarial and risk management science over the last quarter century.
• Realize the research opportunities that lie before us and why each is important to the profession.
• Be motivated to help solve an open problem.
Moderator: Benoit Carrier, Managing Director, Aon Benfield
Panelists: Stephen Mildenhall, Chairman, Aon Analytics, Aon
Stephen Lowe, CAS President and Senior Consultant, Willis Towers Watson
Stephen D’Arcy, Emeritus Professor of Finance, University of Illinois
20
TUESDAY, MAY 17, 2016
GENERAL SESSIONS 2 AND 3
8:00 a.m. – 9:30 a.m.
G-2: Data Visualization
Grand Ballroom AB
Actuaries are tasked with not only analyzing data but also communicating its intricacies and implications. Are you using the right
techniques to visualize data? When will a pie chart suffice, and when do we need something more complex? What resources would
it take to implement new visualization tools and techniques?
Ben Jones will present several data visualization techniques that are available and discuss ways to determine which ones may be
right for your data. Then Kirt Dooley will relay some examples and lessons he learned as NCCI introduced new data visualization
techniques into their analyses and communication.
• Identify and investigate data visualization types and tools to employ them.
• Contribute to actuarial projects using effective data visualization.
Moderator: Kimberly Anderson, VP, Auto Product Design and Modeling, Liberty Mutual
Panelists: Kirt Dooley, Practice Leader & Senior Actuary, NCCI Holdings
Ben Jones, Director, Tableau Public
G-3: Cyberrisk
Grand Ballroom CD
Cyberrisk has rapidly become a major concern for businesses and governments worldwide. Insurance coverages for this risk is
changing rapidly as new breaches and legal theories are being formed. This session will address the different cyberrisk coverages
and how the insurance market is responding to the demand for this coverage. Underwriting and actuaries must work closely
together since pricing this coverage is difficult due to the lack of historical data and changes made to the policy coverage.
• Understand insurance coverages for cyber liability.
• Understand legal issues surrounding cyber liability.
• Learn what organizations are doing to mitigate cyberrisks.
Moderator: Carl Ashenbrenner, Consulting Actuary, Milliman
Panelists: Eduard Goodman, Chief Privacy Officer, IDT911
Jeremy Ong, Alternative Markets Division, Cyber Risk Insurance, Great American Insurance
Group
Robert Hayes, Senior Director, Enterprise Cybersecurity, Microsoft Corporation
21
10:00 a.m. – 11:15 a.m.
Aspen
C-5: China’s P&C Insurance Market Current Advancements and Future Challenges
After significant growth over the last few decades, the China insurance market is facing a wide variety of new opportunities and
challenges, especially due to the moderation of overall economy growth. In this session, a panel of senior executives from China
will share with the audience their views on the current advancements and future challenges. Session topics will include:
• China P&C market overview
• New and creative P&C insurance products
• UBI application in auto insurance
• Updates on auto insurance reform
• Rise of the direct web-based distribution channel
• Demand for P&C actuaries with international experience
• Evaluate potential international P&C opportunities by learning of the China market development experience.
• Apply the China insurance industry’s experience in managing its market advancements and challenges to their work.
• Better prepare those interested in seeking international actuarial career opportunities.
Moderator: Peter Wu, Director, Deloitte Consulting
Panelists: Sen Chen, Chief Actuary, China Pacific Property Insurance Company
Yuanli Zhu, Deputy General Manager of Actuarial Department, Ping An P&C Insurance
Company
Chunfang Xue, Deputy Director of Actuarial Division of Property and Casualty Insurance
Department, China Insurance Regulatory Commission (CIRC)
C-7R: Disruptive Forces Facing the Insurance Industry
Grand Ballroom AB
22
C-9: Generalized Linear Models with Correlated Frequency and Severity — Theory
and Case Studies for Ontario
Ontario’s auto insurance system is not working. In 2013 Ontario drivers spent more than five percent of their disposable income
on auto insurance on average. In such a heavily regulated and highly competitive market, more accurate and precise predictive
analytics and modelling are needed to gain competitive advantages.
In the current GLM modeling practice, actuaries normally have two separate models as one for frequency and one for severity.
Then, the simple multiplication of the predicted frequency and severity is the modeled pure premium by assuming no correlation
between frequency and severity. This method will skew pure premium because the frequency and severity are indeed negatively
correlated in most cases.
This presentation will show how actuaries could add value by quantifying the bias of the estimated pure premium from the zero
correlation assumption. Two case studies will be provided to illustrate how this theory could be used in actuaries’ daily work.
• Understand the issues with the Ontario Auto Insurance System and how the regulators have been addressing them.
•
Learn how actuaries could add value by including the correlations between frequency and severity in their predictive analytics
and GLMs.
•
Use some of the findings and the methodologies in this presentation in your future predictive analytics and modeling work.
Moderator: Francis Gribbon, Senior Actuarial Consultant, Insurance Services Office, Inc.
Panelists: John Zhou, Manager, Intact Financial Corporation
Anh Tu Le, Consulting Actuary, Senior Manager, KPMG LLP
Redwood
C-11: Integrating ERM for Maximum ROI
Come hear about a continuing journey in realizing the true value of ERM! What made this ERM program successful can be applied to other jurisdictions and countries.
ERM programs are developed for a variety of reasons, most notably legislation and regulatory requirements. Most organizations
started from a place where risks are distributed across various portfolios, leading to a divergence of processes and masking the
overall understanding of risks to the organization.
The literature suggests that ERM used to coordinate an organizational risk program reduces uncertainty and, over time, improves
the prospects of success in terms of addressing financial and insurable hazards, as well as guiding strategy, operations and technology, reputation, and regulatory compliance within the organization.
Despite the absence of legislation and regulation, the public sector health in Canada has taken the horns of ERM. From a starting
point of clinical adverse event management only a few years ago, Vancouver Coastal Health’s ERM program is now integrated
with strategic planning, corporate policy development and its board prioritization setting processes.
• Grasp what ERM is from a variety of perspectives.
• Have applicable options for how to integrate ERM with strategic planning and Board priority setting to ensure alignment.
Moderator: Benoit Carrier, Managing Director, Aon Benfield
Panelist: Ella Young, Director, Actuarial Analytics, Vancouver Coastal Health
23
EY consultants are working with industry leaders
to tackle big, complex issues and transform their
businesses. ey.com/us/insurance
© 2015 Ernst & Young LLP. All Rights Reserved. ED 0617
When cars drive
themselves,
what’s the impact
on insurance?
New Fellows
Alexander Esmail Alimi
Willis Towers Watson
BS / BA in Actuarial Science & Finance
Drake University
Des Moines, IA
Qianxin Deng
Intact Financial Corporation
Math in Actuarial Science
University of Waterloo
Waterloo, ON, Canada
Wesley Arai
Farmers Insurance Group
BA in Math & Statistics
University of California
Berkeley, CA
MA in Mathematics
Los Angeles, CA
Nicole Cathryn Dikun
GEICO
BS in Mathematical Science
Loyola College
Baltimore, MD
Jean-Michel Belanger
La Capitale, Compagnie d’assurance generale
AS in Actuarial Science
Laval University
Quebec City, QC, Canada
François Bellavance
Desjardins General Insurance Group
DEC in Natural Science
Cegep of Rimouski
Rimouski, QC, Canada
BA in Actuarial Science
Laval University
Alexandre Dionne
TD Insurance
BSc in Actuarial Science
UQAM
Montreal, QC, Canada
Weiming Hong
CAA Insurance Company (Ontario)
University of Western Ontario
London, ON, Canada
MA in Applied Statistics
York University
Toronto, ON, Canada
Jimmy Houng
AIG
BS in Math & Economics
State University of New York
Binghamton, NY
Pamela Hughes
Esaie Djossou
Aviva Canada
BSc in Actuarial Mathematics
Concordia University
Robert Kenneth Dohner
USAA P&C Insurance Company
BS in Mathematics
Oakland University
Rochester, MI
Oneida Charrett
Zenith National Insurance Company
BS in Electrical Engineering
Pontificia Universidad Javeriana
Bogota, Colombia
MSEE in Electrical Engineering
University of Southern California
Los Angeles, CA
Andrew J. Draper
Rockhill Insurance Co.
BS in Applied Mathematics
Missouri University of Science and Technology
Rolla, MO
Samuel Nicholas Charters
Aviva Canada
BSc in Physics
Gilbert Grady Jr.
United Services Automobile Association
Rose-Hulman Institute of Technology
Terre Haute, IN
Farhan N. Chaudhry
Zurich Insurance Company
BS in Actuarial Science & Finance
University of Illinois
Champaign-Urbana, IL
Xin Guo
Aviva Canada
BS in Actuarial Science
University of Toronto
Toronto, ON, Canada
Waley Chun
BS in Applied Mathematics & Economics
California Institute of Technology
Pasadena, CA
Charles Hammal
Economical Mutual Insurance Group
BA in Actuarial Science & Mathematics
University of Montreal
Erin Gerber Davidson, CERA
Verisk Analytics Insurance Solutions
BA in Mathematics
University of Pennsylvania
Philadelphia, PA
Bradley M. Henderson
Berkley Mid-Atlantic Group
BS in Actuarial Science & Finance
University of Iowa
Iowa City, IA
Sarah Dupuis-Carrier
The Co-operators General Insurance Company
Nadya Kuzkina
BS in Mathematics
Moscow State University
Moscow, Russia
MS in Statistics
Northeastern University
Boston, MA
Chan Hoon Lee
EY
BM in Actuarial Science & Statistics
Kenneth Lee
Ironshore Insurance Ltd
BS in Electrical & Computer Engineering
Cornell University
Ithaca, NY
Vincent Li
BA in Economics
Cornell University
Ithaca, NY
Jianbin Liu
CAA Insurance Company (Ontario)
BA in Actuarial Mathematics
Jennifer W. Louie
Starr Companies
BS in Computer Science
Carnegie Mellon University
Pittsburgh, PA
Lai-yue Sam Luo
BS in Bio Engineering
MSE in Applied Mathematics & Statistics
Johns Hopkins University
Baltimore, MD
David Mamane
TD Insurance
25
New Fellows
Alyssa Lyn Mansolf
The Hartford
BA in Mathematics
Quinnipiac College
Hamden, CT
Erik Peter Olson
BA in Mathematics
Boston University
Boston, MA
Jeffrey S. Stehlgens
CSAA Insurance Group
BA in Math Education
University of Delaware
Newark, DE
Megan Anne Meier
BS in Actuarial Science & Statistics
Purdue University
West Lafayette, IN
Andrew D. Otto
Liberty International Underwriters
BS in Mathematics
Pennsylvania State University
University Park, PA
Abby L. Sternberg
Milliman, Inc.
Benjamin Isaac Mermelstein
Bates White, LLC
State College, PA
Ph.D in Economics
Northwestern University
Evanston, IL
Jonathan R. Mesagaes
Everest Reinsurance Company (Ireland) Limited
BS in Mathematics
Lehigh University
Bethelhem, PA
Carrie F. Miller
Allstate Insurance Company
BA in Mathematics
Evanston, IL
Daniel Moskala
Capital Insurance Group
BS / BA in Math & Economics
Andrews University
Berrien Springs, MI
Isaac Mostov
BA in Economics
Vanderbilt University
Nashville, TN
Ian Colan Mui
Export Development Canada
BMath in Actuarial Science
Matthew Grayton Murphy
The Gray Insurance Co.
BS in Physics
Fordham University
Bronx, NY
Brad Thomas Neilson
Simon Fraser University
Burnaby, BC, Canada
MBA in Finance
London, ON, Canada
Bryan M. Pack
State Auto Insurance Companies
BS in Mathematics
Ohio State University
Columbus, OH
Kari A. Palmer
The Hartford
BA in Math & Economics
Masters in Finance
Nashville, TN
Joel Aaron Pepera
GEICO
BA in Mathematics
Washington & Lee University
Lexington, VA
MS in Mathematics
University of Florida
Gainesville, FL
Marla E. Strykowski
Plymouth Rock Assurance Corporation
Bentley University
Waltham, MA
Michael Brandon Synowicki
BS / BA in Actuarial Science
University of Nebraska
Lincoln, NE
Alvin Tan Jin Kuan
Allied World Assurance Company
Singapore Management University
Singapore, Singapore
Yi-Wei Teo
BS in Computer Engineering
MS in Applied Mathematics
Guy Rabinowitz
Economical Insurance
BS in Actuarial Mathematics
Montreal, QC
Michael Daniel Wallace
BS in Finance
Boston College
Chestnut Hill, MA
Haseeb Rehman
Honor in Mathematics
Qi Wang
AIG
BS in Geophysics
University of Science & Technology - China
Hefei, Anhui, China
Ph.D in Geophysics
Los Angeles, CA
John Russell Rose
BA in Statistics
University of Rochester
Rochester, NY
Drew R. Russell
BS in Mathematics
University of Massachusetts
Amherst, MA
David Jeremiah Whalen
American National Property & Casualty Co.
BS in Math & Physics
University of San Francisco
San Francisco, CA
MS in Physics
Davis, CA
Cunhua Shi
Canadian Medical Protective Association
BE in Mechanical Engineering
Zhejiang University
Hangzhou, China
Dennis C. Wong
PricewaterhouseCoopers
Giorgio Alfredo Spedicato
UnipolSai Group
BS in Statistics
Universitá Cattolica Del Sacro Cuore
Milan, Italy
26
New Fellows
Chuan-Wei Wu
AIG
BS in Accounting
National Taiwan University
Taipei, Taiwan
MS in Actuarial Science
Boston University
Boston, MA
Eric James Wunder
Milliman, Inc.
BBA in Actuarial Science
University of Wisconsin
Madison, WI
Kai Kwan Yeung
BA in Mathematics
Dartmouth College
Hanover, NH
Bihling Wu
Starr Companies
BA in Actuarial Science & Finance
New York University
New York, NY
Xiao Xu
Berkshire Hathaway Specialty Insurance
BS in Physics
Pasadena, CA
MA in Economics
Princeton University
Princeton, NJ
Ying Yuan
Insurance Corporation of British Columbia
Burnaby, BC, Canada
Wenyuan Wu
College of Wooster
Wooster, OH
Zhengzheng Yang
Desjardins Groupe d’assurances Générales
BM in Actuarial Science
Andrew Ryan Yuhasz
BS in Business
Pittsburgh, PA
Thomas Nelson Zdon
XL Catlin
BS / BA in Economics & Statistics
Gainesville, FL
MS in Statistics
Rutgers University
New Brunswick, NJ
New Fellows by Mutual Recognition
Oliver Graham Bale
Zurich Insurance Company
Fellow of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries, U.K.
Berna Beekman
Deloitte Consulting, LLP
James Coyle
Wai Fong Yip
Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty
27
New Associates
Maya Abou Rjeili
Jon Beaver
State Farm Insurance Companies
BS in Mathematics
Oglethorpe University
Atlanta, GA
Steven M. Burak
Chubb Group of Insurance Companies
BS in Mathematics
Drexel University
Philadelphia, PA
Justin Ahn
Evanston, IL
Etienne Beland
Promutuel Group
Laval University
Cegep de Ste-Foy
Bingkun Cai
Esurance
BA in Applied Mathematics
BA in Economics
Berkeley, CA
Lauren K. Albury
Zurich
BS in Mathematics
Truman State University
Kirksville, MO
Michael L. Alfred
BS in Interdisciplinary Science
Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute
Troy, NY
MS in Mathematics
Northern Arizona University
Flagstaff, AZ
Corey Grover Berg
Evanston, IL
Matthew York Berry
BS in Actuarial Science & Applied Statistics
Purdue University
West Lafayette, IN
Melissa A. Anderson
AIG
BS in Math & Business
Elmhurst College
Elmhurst, IL
John A. Bertino
State Auto Insurance Companies
BS in Math & Physics
Columbus, OH
Michael D. Anderson
BS in Economics & Finance
Bridgewater State College
Bridgewater, MA
Adwaita D. Bhagwat
Rutgers University
New Brunswick, NJ
Samantha J. Andrews
Bryant University
Smithfield, RI
Pamela Brittany Biewer
Capital Insurance Group
Clemson University
Clemson, SC
Benjamin A. Armstrong
Markel FirstComp Insurance Company
Lincoln, NE
Conner A. Billings
AIG
BS in Mathematics
State College, PA
Richard Avonti
The Hanover Insurance Group
BA in Mathematics
Framingham State College
Framingham, MA
Masters in Mathematics
University of Connecticut
Storrs, CT
Matthew S. Blumenthal
BA in Psychology & Economics
Tufts University
Medford, MA
Jie Bao
PICC Group, Ltd
HBSc in Actuarial Science
University of Toronto
Toronto, ON, Canada
Andrew J. Brady
BS in Mathematics
Lafayette College
Easton, PA
Adam Joseph Braithwaite
BA in Math & Cognitive Science
University of Virginia
Charlottesville, VA
28
Brendan G. Callahan
B-TAC, LLC
BS in Mathematics
Worcester Polytechnic Institute
Worcester, MA
Erin C. Campbell
CNA Insurance Companies
BA in Math & Business
Calvin College
Grand Rapids, MI
Lauren Campbell
BA in Management
Boston College
Chestnut Hill, MA
Elizabeth A. Casazza
BBA in Math & Finance
University of Notre Dame
Notre Dame, IN
Nicholas A. Cerminara
TMNA Services, LLC
University Park, PA
William Chabot
Desjardins General Insurance Group
Laval University
Chi Yu Chan
Guy Carpenter & Co. LLC
Chinese University of Hong Kong
Hong Kong, China
Regina Tze Sin Chan
GuideOne Insurance Group
BBA in Risk Management & Insurance
Madison, WI
Yanzhu Chen
Esurance
BA in Economics
BA in Statistics
Berkeley, CA
New Associates
Chen Chen
BC in Actuarial Science
Macquarie University
Sydney, Australia
Columbia University
New York, NY
Jeffrey M. Feder
AIG
BS in Civil Engineering
MS in Civil Engineering
Columbia University
New York, NY
Aaron D. Dahlke
Esurance
University of Minnesota
Minneapolis, MN
Eric Cheung
AS in Mathematics
Robert V. Demarco
GEICO
Newark, DE
Ph.D in Mathematics
Rutgers University
Piscataway, NJ
Judy Chiu
Milliman, Inc.
BA in Mathematics
Berkeley, CA
Patrick Desjardins
BA in Mathematics
Hyunmook Cho
Allstate Canada Group
BMath in Actuarial Science & Statistics
Zach Espe Dietz
Pinnacle Actuarial Resources, Inc.
BA in Mathematics
Grinnell College
Grinnell, IA
Ph.D in Statistics
Iowa State University
Ames, IA
Stefan Ray Ciszewski
GEICO
BA in Math & Business
Houghton College
Houghton, NY
John Joseph Clark
Hanover Insurance Group
BS in Mathematics
Worcester State College
Worcester, MA
Bryn Louis Clarke
Nationwide Insurance Company
BS in Chemistry
University of Colorado
Denver, CO
Marc-André Clermont
TD Insurance
Gregory Coffman
Christopher Craig Cortner
Arch Insurance Group
BS in Economics & Biology
Los Angeles, CA
Qian Cui
Roman Fedoseev
Swiss Re
MS in Applied Mathematics & Physics
Ph.D in Applied Mathematics & Physics
Moscow Institute of Physics & Technology
Moscow, Russia
Yu Shi Feng
PricewaterhouseCoopers Bermuda
BM in Mathematics
MA in Accounting
Patrick Digan
Medical Protective
BS in Mathematics
Notre Dame, IN
Mark R. Doering
Automobile Club of Southern California
BS in Applied Mathematics & Economics
Riverside, CA
Emily K. Donatelli
Glatfelter Insurance Group
BA in Mathematics
York College
York, PA
Andrew A. Duhancioglu
Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting
BS in Mathematics
California State University
Northridge, CA
Seth Jacob Ehrlich
Munich Re America, Inc.
BBA in Actuarial Science & Risk Management
Temple University
Philadelphia, PA
Zhou Fang
Munich Re Group
BA in Electrical Engineering
Zhejiang University
Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China
Georgia State University
Atlanta, GA
29
Ryan J. Ferguson
Zurich
BS in Statistics
Case Western Reserve University
Cleveland, OH
Ross V. Fernwood
BS in Applied Sciences
Los Angeles, CA
Zachary Andrew Fischer
Milliman, Inc.
BS in Mathematics
La Crosse, WI
Erin Elizabeth Fogarty
University of Colorado
Boulder, CO
Daniel Joseph Forsman
Washington State Office of the Insurance
Commissioner
BS in Mathematics
Washington State University
Pullman, WA
Thomas M. Foster
BS in Meteorology
University Park, PA
MS in Geology
University of Michigan
Ann Arbor, MI
Amelie Fournier
Industrial Alliance
Universite Laval
New Associates
Erica C. Griest
BS in Mathematics
University of Tulsa
Tulsa, OK
MA in Actuarial Mathematics
University of Texas
Austin, TX
Saiying He
National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc.
Trinity College
Hartford, CT
MS in Mathematics
Urbana, IL
LiBin Guo
AmTrust Financial Services
BS in Computer Science
Binghamton, NY
Marikym Hebert
TD Insurance
Matias Galker
Greenlight Reinsurance LTD
Universidad de Buenos Aires
Buenos Aires, Argentina
Weimiao Guo
BS in Mathematics
Nankai University
Tianjin, China
MS in Statistics
Storrs, CT
Andrew Austin Hefte
BS in Mathematics
Ames, IA
Christine L. Garvey
BA in Mathematics
Tufts University
Somerville, MA
Geoffrey D. Hackman
XL Catlin
BA in Economics & Statistics
Evanston, IL
Matthew J. Gentile
Storrs, CT
Brett R. Hall
The Hartford
Binghamton University
Binghamton, NY
Gloria Amakobe Gilliam
Newark, DE
MA in Mathematics
University of Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh, PA
Kanwal Hameed
AH Actuarial Solutions
St. John’s University
New york, NY
Julie Ann Frechette
Hanover Insurance Group
BS in Mathematics
Worcester State College
Worcester, MA
Douglas Fry
Northern Illinois University
DeKalb, IL
Amanda Jean Funk-Hoag
BS in Mathematics
Eau Claire, WI
Constanza S. Giordano
BA in Statistics
Gainesville, FL
Michael Golding
EY
University Park, PA
Homero Gongora
General Star
BS in Mathematics
Western Washington University
Bellingham, WA
Columbia University
New York, NY
Stephanie Heiser
Electric Insurance Company
BA in Economics
Gettysburg College
Gettysburg, PA
Andrew J. Herrmann
BA in Mathematics
MA in Mathematics
San Francisco State University
San Francisco, CA
David E. Herson
BA in Economics
New York University
New York, NY
Nicholas Hamwey
The Hartford
BS in Statistics
University of Massachusetts
Amherst, MA
Ryan Lyle Hansen
BS / BA in Actuarial Science & Accounting
Drake University
Des Moines, IA
Alex James Harris
Berkley Medical Excess Underwriters
Drake University
Des Moines, IA
Ken Jeremy Hawkins
Pekin Insurance
Colin J. Heydorn
BS in Appied Economics & Business Management
Cornell University
Ithaca, NY
Temple University
Philadelphia, PA
Martin Hiu Fung Ho
BA in Economics
University of British Columbia
Vancouver, BC, Canada
Ryan H. Hoffman
Ball State University
Muncie, IN
Hugo Houde
Universite Laval
30
New Associates
Richard B. Houston
Caterpillar Financial Insurance Services
BA in Finance
University of Tennessee
Knoxville, TN
Lingmin Jiang
Main Street America
BA in International Trade
Nankai University
Tianjin, China
Joe Hsieh
Ann Arbor, MI
William Christian Johnson
Brickstreet Insurance
BA in Actuarial Science & Economics
Ohio University
Athens, OH
Albert J. Hsueh
BS in Statistics
University of Washington
Seattle, WA
MA in Statistics
Columbia University
New York, NY
Chrisma Leysen Manuel Juan
Aviva Canada
BS in Mathematics
Masters in Actuarial Science
University of Philippines - Diliman
Quezon City, Philippines
Kelsey M. Hunke
Zurich North America
Lincoln, NE
Long Huynh
BS in Economics & Finance
Bentley University
Waltham, MA
Andrew Iden
Assurant, Inc.
Ashland University
Ashland, OH
Eugene Itskovich
State Farm Mutual Automobile Insurance Co.
Katelyn M. Jeffreys
BA in Mathematics
Boston College
Chestnut Hill, MA
Wesley Jenq
Grange Mutual Casualty Company
Columbus, OH
Lulu Ji
BS in Mathematics
Sun Yat-Sen University
Guangzhou, China
University of Iowa
Iowa City, IA
MS in Risk Management
New York, NY
Kyle Kamer
Berkshire Hathaway Homestate Companies
BBA in Actuarial Science & Finance
Madison, WI
Theresa Kamykowski
BS in Secondary Education & Mathematics
MS in Mathematics
Loyola University
Chicago, IL
Ethan Yisung Kang
GEICO
BS in Mathematics
University of Maryland
College Park, MD
Spencer Lewis Kantner
BA in Mathematics
Minneapolis, MN
Kevin A. Keebler
AIG
Temple University
Philadelphia, PA
Sumit S. Koli
BS in Mechanical Engineering
University of Mumbai
Navi Mumbai, India
MS in Industrial Engineering
Binghamton, NY
Tyler A. Kroetsch
Victoria Rose Krueger
The Hartford
Storrs, CT
Lok-Yi R. Kwok
The Warranty Group
BS in Mathematics
Ann Arbor, MI
Daniel H. Kwon
Insurance Services Office, Inc.
BA in Mathematics
Tufts University
Medford, MA
Erin B. Lachen
BS in Math & Statistics
Ames, IA
Jacob B. Lain
The Republic Group
University of Texas
Austin, TX
Kamran Lakhany
Ryan D. Kimber
Quantedge USA
BS in Mathematics
St. Lawrence University
Canton, NY
Marjorie Rebecca Kitchen
Maiden Reinsurance
BA in Mathematics
MA in Mathematics
Eastern Illinois University
Charleston, IL
Eric Kitchens
The Hartford
BS in Interdisciplinary Science
James Madison University
Harrisonburg, VA
31
Heesun Lee
AIG Property Casualty
BA in Business Administration
Yonsei University
Seoul, South Korea
Atlanta, GA
Hugh Lee
Aviva Canada
AS in Mathematics
New Associates
Kyungphil Lee
BSc in Electrical Engineering
Seoul National University
Seoul, South Korea
MSc in Actuarial Science
Storrs, CT
Pierre-Luc Legresley
Promutuel Group
Universite Laval
Jaison Lehoux
TD Insurance
Universite Laval
Zoe Pictor Lester
GEICO
MSc in Physics
Ph.D in Physics
Imperial College London
London, United Kingdom
Adam Lewis
Mercer University
Macon, GA
Haonan Li
BS in Mathematics
Minneapolis, MN
Lingxiao Li
W. R. Berkley Corporation
Drake University
Des Moines, IA
Shu Li
Penn National Insurance
BE in Thermal Energy Engineering
MEng in Refrigeration & Cryogenics Engineering
University of Science & Technology - Beijing
Beijing, China
Teng Li
AIG
Ziyu April Li
BS in Electrical Engineering
Huazhong University of Science and Technology
Wuhan/Hubei, China
Jin Fan Lim
Overseas Assurance Corporation (M) Berhad
Universiti Tunku Abdul Rahman
Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
Steven Ma
Mei Hong Lin
Aviva Canada
BM in Actuarial Science & Finance
Ian David Mackenzie
BS in Mathematics
University of Georgia
Athens, GA
Russell Andrew Linder
BS / BBA in Actuarial Science & Finance
Ohio University
Athens, OH
Scott Andrew Macneil
EY
AS in Mathematics
William Litner
BS in Business Administration
Pittsburgh, PA
Nicholas Stone Mancini
Federated Insurance Companies
BBA in Finance
Madison, WI
Jacqueline Jie Liu
Timothy Frank Mankowski
Starr Companies
BS in Applied Mathematics & Statistics
Stony Brook, NY
Sue Ann Loo
EY
BS / BA in Actuarial Science & Accounting
Drake University
Des Moines, IA
Brandon Lord
AIG
BS in Mathematics
MS in Mathematics
Gainesville, FL
Cullen Lee Maricque
Madison, WI
Jacqueline Nyokabi Mathenge
Simpson College
Indianola, IA
Yisi Lu
KPMG, LLP
BS in Statistics
Renmin University of China
Beijing, China
Atlanta, GA
Courtney Alyse Luongo
BS in Actuarial Science & Economics
Saint Joseph’s University
Philadelphia, PA
Kun Ma
Mercury Insurance Group
BS in Biochemistry
Nanjing University
Nanjing, China
MS in Applied Statistics
Columbus, OH
32
Kyle L. Mathews
Illinois State University
Normal, IL
Kevin T. McInturff
University Park, PA
Daniel Mena-Martinez
Santa Barbara, CA
Marc-Olivier Menard
Math in Mathematics
New Associates
Yecheng Meng
BSc in Statistics
Jinan University
Guangzhou, China
MSc in Systems Engineering
Chinese University of Hong Kong
Hong Kong, China
John William Michael
BA in Economics
University of Buffalo
Buffalo, NY
Tamara Georgeievna Mihaelyan
Munich Re America, Inc.
Tashkent State University
Tashkent, Uzbekistan
Erik Charles Miller
BA in Mathematics
St. Norbert College
De Pere, WI
Austin R. Mitchell
Southern Farm Bureau Casualty Insurance Co
Drake University
Des Moines, IA
Brian Mittleberg
GEICO
BA in Philosophy
American University
Washington, DC
Melanie Modrick
The Hartford
Lebanon Valley College
Annville, PA
Stuart W. Montgomery
RBC Insurance Services, Inc.
BSc in Computer Science & Engineering
University of Prince Edward Island
Charlottetown, PE, Canada
Enrique Moran
Intact Insurance Company
BMath in Actuarial Science & Finance
David Morin
TD Insurance
Universite Laval
Mohammed Moussaîf
TD Insurance
BSc in Math & Actuarial Science
Charlene A. Myers
Florida Atlantic University
BA in Mathematics
Florida Atlantic University
Boca Raton, FL
Maxim Proulx-Rivard
La Capitale Assurances Générales
BAC in Actuarial Science
Universite Laval
Quebec, QC, Canada
Nancy Anne Narisi
St. Joseph’s University
Philadelphia, PA
Yiannis Psiloyenis
BA in Math & Statistics
University of Cyprus
Nicosia, Cyprus
Ph.D in Mathematics
University of Southern California
Los Angeles, CA
Bao Anh Duc Nguyen
AB / BS in Economics & Finance
Bentley University
Waltham, MA
William Frank Nichols
BA in Mathematics
Normal, IL
Daniel K. Nishimura
Milliman, Inc.
BA in History & Economics
Ann Arbor, MI
Brandon S. O’Hara
University Park, PA
Cherity A. Ostapowich
Wawanesa Mutual Insurance Company
BComm in Actuarial Science & Finance
University of Manitoba
Winnipeg, MB, Canada
Kelsie A. Paquin
BS in Mathematics
Bentley University
Waltham, MA
Nikola Petkov
TD Insurance
Kenneth Bruce Poole
BA in Economics & Mathematics
Columbia University
New York, NY
Moshe Preiserowicz
Touro College
Brooklyn, NY
Tao Qi
Economical Mutual Insurance Group
BSc in Biochemistry
Nankai University
Tianjin, China
London, ON, Canada
Yitian Qin
TD Insurance
BA in Risk Management & Insurance
Nankai University
Tianjin, China
Carl Joseph Raimond
The Hartford
University of Buffalo
Buffalo, NY
Misha S. Rajcoomar
AIG
BS in Math & Finance
University of Maryland
College Park, MD
Jordan Richard
The Co-operators General Insurance Company
Certificate in Actuarial Mathematics
Burnaby, Canada
BSc in Mathematics
Mount Allison University
Sackville, NB, Canada
Temar T. Richards
BBA in Business
Acadia University
Wolfville, NS, Canada
Normal, IL
Paul Donald Rosing
Nashville, TN
33
New Associates
Vincent Roy
Promutuel Group
Universite Laval
Melissa Ann Rudisaile
ACE
BS / BA in Actuarial Science & Economics
Elizabethtown College
Elizabethtown, PA
Ellen E. Ruppert
RLI Corporation
BS in Mathematics
Missouri University of Science and Technology
Rolla, MO
Anuttama Sheela Mohan
BTech in Industrial Biotechnology
Anna University
Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India
MS in Neurobiology & Behavior
Cornell University
Ithaca, NY
Diana Shen
BA in Statistics
Yale University
New Haven, CT
Michelle Rutman
Intact Insurance Company
Hong Shen
BS in Life Science
Fudan University
Shanghai, China
Ph.D in Biochemistry
Rosalind Franklin University
North Chicago, IL
Allison Marie Salisbury
BS in Actuarial Science & Applied Statistics
Purdue University
West Lafayette, IN
Justin M. Sherwin
CUNA Mutual Group
BBA in Actuarial Science & Risk Management
Madison, WI
Marie Angelique Scaglione
Preferred Mutual Insurance Company
BSc in Statistics
University of Guelph
Guelph, ON, Canada
Ryan Shivy
State College, PA
Thomas William Schlund
BS in Mathematics
Caitlin Dorothy Simmons
Lebanon Valley College
Annville, PA
Dustin Schneider
BA in Math & Physics
Kenyon College
Gambier, OH
MS in Statistics
Champaign, IL
Joshua K. Simon
MedPro Group
BA in Mathemathics
Yeshiva University
New York, NY
Brian T. Schwartz
BAC in Actuarial Science & Statistics
Purdue University
West Lafayette, IN
Brian C. Settle
BS / BBA in Math & Finance
University of Georgia
Athens, GA
Jeffrey R. Slocum
XL Catlin
BS / BA in Math & Japanese
State College, PA
Brandon S. Smith
AIG
Fordham University
Bronx, NY
Eric T. Smith
EMC Insurance Companies
BA in Mathematics
Simpson College
Indianola, IA
34
Anderson St. Hill
MMath in Actuarial Science
Iliyana Stefanova Stancheva
BAC in Actuarial Mathematics
Jonathan M. Statman
Endurance Worldwide Insurance
BA in Mathematics
Yeshiva University
New York, NY
Brian H. Stein
Florida State University
Tallahassee, FL
Matthew J. Stephenson
Bickerstaff, Whatley, Ryan & Burkhalter, Inc.
BS in Mathematics
University of Mississippi
Oxford, MS
MS in Mathematics
Nashville, TN
Emma Josephine Stokes
BA in Mathematics
Cornell University
Ithaca, NY
George Stonecipher
State Compensation Insurance Fund
BS in Mathematics
California State University
San Marcos, CA
Douglas Michael Stromberg
Aon Benfield
BA in Math & English
Champaign, IL
MS in Applied Mathematics
DePaul University
Chicago, IL
Garry Steven Sui-Tit-Tong
Travelers Canada
Clive Thompson
AIG
BE in Chemical Engineering
Nashville, TN
Columbia University
New York, NY
New Associates
William J. Thorsson
Accident Fund Holdings, Inc.
Temple University
Philadelphia, PA
Kelsey Marie Thraen
Lincoln, NE
Michelle Ting
Aviva Canada
BMath in Actuarial Science & Finance
Jose Angel Torres
USAA
BMath in Statistics
University of Texas - Dallas
Richardson, TX
Chen Wang
AIG
Fudan University
Shanghai, China
MS in Applied Mathematics & Statistics
Stony Brook, NY
Wen Wang
EY
BM in Actuarial Science & Statistics
Xiaoye Wang
General Reinsurance Corporation
Albany, NY
Max Unger
AXIS Capital
University Park, PA
Xin Wang
AIG
BA in Statistics
Beijing, China
Atlanta, GA
Dhimal Vagh
Northbridge Financial Corporation
Kamolphan Weeraklaew
Normal, IL
Nicole Elizabeth Van Allen
Jamaica, NY
Claire Wei
BC in Finance
Melinda K. Vasecka
Centauri Specialty Insurance
BA in Mathematics
Minneapolis, MN
Deborah R. Volstromer
BS in Math & Comp Science
Truman State University
Kirksville, MO
Ann Vu
Liberty International Underwriters
Temple University
Philadelphia, PA
Aleksey G. Vulf
BS in Statistics
University of Iowa
Iowa City, IA
Brian Wiest
Newark, DE
Maighdlin R. Wright
Milliman, Inc.
University of New Hampshire
Durham, NH
Anna Wu
BBA in Finance & Mathematics
Notre Dame, IN
Nan Wu
AIG
BE in Insurance
Beijing, China
MS in Mathematics
Storrs, CT
Weixin Wu
State Farm Mutual Automobile Insurance Co.
BS in Actuarial Science & Statistics
Yi Wu
EY
Pasadena, CA
Kyle P. Wurtz
Lincoln, NE
Cara Ashley Wyrostek
BS in Mathematics
Northern Illinois University
Dekalb, IL
Yue Xi
BS in Biochemistry & Economics
Tsinghua University
Beijing, China
MS in Actuarial Mathematics
Ann Arbor, MI
Scott H. Will
Allianz Global Assistance
BA in Mathematics
University of Virginia
Charlottesville, VA
Andrew Williamson
Great American Insurance Company
BS in Mathematics
University of Cincinnati
Cincinnati, OH
Benjamin Thomas Woods
BBA in Economics & Finance
Georgia Southern University
Stateboro, GA
35
Bruce H. Yang
BBA in Business Administration
Emory University
Atlanta, GA
Atlanta, GA
Caixia Yang
GEICO
Storrs, CT
New Associates
Zhen Ye
BA in Mathematics
Shanghai Jiaotong University
Shanghai, China
Jingting Yi
BA in Applied Mathematics
BA in Economics
BA in Statistics
Berkeley, CA
Helen Y. Zhao
Courtney Zhu
New York, NY
Peipei Zhou
BA in Mathematics
University of Pennsylvania
Philadelphia, PA
MS in Finance
University of Rochester
Rochester, NY
New Chartered Enterprise Risk Analysts
Derek Parker Chapman, FCAS
Merlinos & Associates, Inc.
Dengxing Lin, FCAS
36
UNWAVERING PURPOSE
STEADFAST INTEGRIT Y
COMMITMENT TO INNOVATION
BE
at
LIBERTY
MOVE YOUR CAREER FORWARD
libertymutual.com/careers
Liberty Mutual proudly congratulates
our new Casualty Actuarial Society
Fellows and Associates!
Liberty Mutual Insurance is an equal opportunity employer. We acknowledge, welcome,
and accept the differences that each employee brings to the workplace.
37
New Fellows
New Associates
Vincent Li
Sam Luo
Isaac Mostov
Erik Olson
Andrew Otto
John Rose
Drew Russell
Michael Synowicki
Yi-Wei Teo
Michael Wallace
Wenyuan Wu
Kai Kwan Yeung
Andrew Yuhasz
Michael Anderson
Samantha Andrews
Matt Blumenthal
Chen Chen
Qian Cui
Thomas Foster
Douglas Fry
Christine Garvey
Matt Gentile
Erica Griest
Ryan Hoffman
Albert Hsueh
Long Huynh
Katelyn Jeffreys
William Litner
Jacqueline Mathenge
Bao Anh Nguyen
Anuttama Sheela Mohan
Diana Shen
Ann Vu
Kamolphan Weeraklaew
CONCURRENT SESSIONS 3, CONTINUED
10:00 a.m. – 11:15 a.m.
C-14: Looking for the Next Earthquake Surprise: The Unknowns of Earthquakes
The past decade illustrates how unpredictable earthquake events can be. While earthquakes may defy attempts at prediction, we
can look at earthquake hazards that can give rise to unanticipated events. Earthquakes can occur in surprising locations, generate larger ground motions than expected, or be foreshocks to a larger event. Earthquakes can also result in surprising secondary
hazards, such as landslide, fire-following and tsunami, as well as unexpected infrastructure impacts. This panel examines where the
awareness of earthquake hazards is low in the U.S., and importantly, where the economic risk of these events is poorly managed.
• Learn about the characteristics of shaking in large earthquakes (e.g., 1906 San Francisco, Cascadia) and what this means to
high-rise buildings in San Francisco, Los Angeles and Seattle.
• Learn why base isolation will not work close to large earthquakes.
Moderator: Michael Henk, Consulting Actuary, Milliman
Panelist: Thomas Heaton, Professor of Engineering Seismology, California Institute of Technology
Willow
C-16: Play It Clean: Handling Manipulation in the Workplace
Manipulation is a very common, many-layered behavior in our private lives, but it should be discouraged in the workplace. This
session will help you explore some practical tools for neutralizing manipulative behaviors in your workplace.
• Recognize the most common manipulative styles.
• Neutralize those manipulative behaviors in your workplace.
Moderator: Matthew Veibell, Associate Actuary, USAA
Panelists: Elizabeth Pozzanghera, Partner, Another Way Consulting
Agnes Furst, Partner-Consultant, Another Way Consulting
38
C-22: Reserving in Uncertain Economic Conditions — Compare and Contrast
California WC and Argentina Auto
Cedar
Reserving during changing economic conditions, such as high inflation, is particularly complicated when there is a lag to pay
claims. We investigate two markets that have both features — and compare and contrast the environment and methods applied
in both markets to estimate unpaid losses.
We show that the standard development factor method does not work under changing economic conditions, and explore methods
used in two jurisdictions that initially appear to be very different, but in fact have a lot in common.
• Understand why the DFM method does not work in a high inflation environment.
• Identify if there are outliers in a dataset and adjust them according to the model.
Moderator/Panelist: Marcela Granados Lavoie, Advisory Practice Manager, EY
Panelists: Alejandro Ortega, Educator
Tony Milano, Vice President & Actuary, WCIRB California
Ballard
C-26: An Update from Admissions
Topics will include how CAS Admissions is addressing specific suggestions from a candidate working group session; incorporating
technology into the examination process; restructuring the CAS Admissions Department and related volunteer opportunities; and
other priorities for the coming year. The content will be similar to that presented at the 2015 Annual Meeting, but candidates are
still welcome to attend to interact with the presenters.
Learning Objective:
•
Learn how to take advantage of the opportunities to apply your skills and experience to the CAS Admissions process — how
it works and what its objectives are going forward.
Speakers: Steven Armstrong, Chief Pricing Actuary, QBE North America
Michelle Iarkowski, Manager, Deloitte Consulting LLP
William Wilder, Small Commercial Pricing Manager, Liberty Mutual Insurance
39
Issaquah
C-29: Washington Rate Filings: From Initial Filing Submission to Approval
The Washington State Office of the Insurance Commissioner (OIC) is known for being detailed and thorough in its review of
property and casualty rate filings. From the review of rate-of-return assumptions and multivariate analyses to the validation of
catastrophe models, the OIC carefully scrutinizes the actuarial aspects of rate filings. In this session, the OIC’s P&C actuarial
staff will provide guidance on how insurers can present rate filings in a way that streamlines the review and approval process, and
avoids common pitfalls that tend to delay filing approval. Time permitting, they will also discuss whether some of the supporting
information in a P&C rate filing might be an actuarial communication and thus subject to ASOP 41.
• Prepare and present rate filings that anticipate and address the expectations of the Washington State Office of the Insurance
Commissioner.
• Avoid common pitfalls that tend to delay filing approvals in Washington.
• Interpretation of filings as an “actuarial communication” subject to ASOP 41.
Moderator/Panelist: D. Lee Barclay, Senior Actuary, Washington Office of Insurance Commissioner
Panelists: Eric Slavich, Actuary, Washington Office of Insurance Commissioner
Daniel Forsman, Actuarial Analyst, Washington State Office of the Insurance Commissioner
Manabu Mizushima, Actuarial Analyst, Washington State Office of the Insurance
Commissioner
1:15 p.m. – 2:30 p.m.
C-3: Advanced Predictive Modeling in Ratemaking and Reserving
In this session, we will describe a few modern techniques and show how valuable they can be when applied to ratemaking and
reserving. For ratemaking, we will discuss how to incorporate spatial information in an efficient and structured way. For reserving,
we will show how to flexibly incorporate information from similar lines, allowing those most similar to have the largest impact.
We will also discuss model adjustments to improve both prediction and interpretability.
• Be able to understand modern ratemaking and reserving methods.
• Properly incorporate related lines when modeling reserves.
Speakers: Brian Hartman, Assistant Professor and Actuarial Program Director, Brigham Young
University
Peng Shi, Assistant Professor, University of Wisconsin-Madison
40
C-6: China’s Reinsurance Market Update
Aspen
As the insurance market continues to grow in China, the opportunity for new reinsurance products and services has been growing significantly accordingly. In this session, the panel will discuss the current China reinsurance market development, including:
China reinsurance market overview; global vs. local reinsurance players in China; new reinsurance products such as cat bond;
impact of C-ROSS solvency regulation on insurers’ asset liability matching requirement; and adoption of analytics capability such
as cat modeling and predictive modeling.
• Reinsurance employees will be better prepared if their employers would like to enter the of China reinsurance market.
• Apply the China reinsurers’ experience on their reinsurance analytics tools, new products and new services to your work.
• Compare and contrast the similarity and differences between the U.S. and China reinsurance markets.
Moderator: Jun Yan, Specialist Leader, Deloitte Consulting LLP
Panelists: Weishu Fan, Chief Underwriting Officer, Munich Re Greater China
Xiaoxuan (Sherwin) Li, Head of Actuarial Department, China Re P&C
41
C-15: Modeling Tail Variance
Willow
Estimating the Distribution in the Tail
Estimating the parameters of a loss distribution is handled well using the MLE method.
In insurance we find that most empirical loss distributions have a fatter tail than indicated by the MLE method.
A solution from extreme value theory is very useful here. We fit the losses to a distribution and then select a different distribution
for the tail.
The proposed method is useful for (1) identifying where the tail begins and (2) selecting parameters for the tail.
In practice this method is useful when estimating economic capital for different reinsurance structures, a component in the capital
calculation under Solvency II regulations, and also for adjusting losses for individual account pricing.
The Weighted CoTVaR Method of Capital Allocation: A Practical Approach for Using Capital Models to Drive Decision
Making within Your Organization
This presentation will serve as a practitioner’s guide for turning an existing capital model into an engine for analyzing business
decisions. The speaker will discuss the theory and practice behind the weighted CoTVaR approach to capital allocation — including selecting Co-TVaR points, scenario testing, and comparing strategic options in a RORAC framework.
• Select parameters for the tail of an empirical distribution, and determine where the tail begins.
•
Consider alternative ways to make the results of the model useful if there is no deployment path or if theoriginal deployment
path fails.
• Have the tools to run a simulation to test different reinsurance structures.
Moderator: Martin King, Director, Corporate Risk Management, Kaiser Permanente
Panelists: Alejandro Ortega, Educator
Blake Berman, Vice President, Strategic Advisory, Guy Carpenter
42
C-21: Incorporating Predictive Analytics in Reserving: Why and How?
Grand Ballroom AB
Increased use of predictive analytics in pricing is a widely accepted practice, with accepted and recognized value. This is not necessarily the case in reserving, however. In this session, we point out how potential problems in reserving could be flagged by better
analytics, which could help avoid real business problems. We show this in the context of workers’ compensation and pension funding, noting surprising similarities, despite these two being substantially different lines of actuarial work. Specifically, we note that
workers’ compensation policies with high deductibles reserving practices should take into account credit standing of the insured
firm, and that there is similarity to public pensions, where a plan sponsor not funding the plan fully is a negative credit event, but
the balance sheet is not adjusted for it. These similar phenomena could be viewed as “shadow reinsurance” arrangements, where
reinsurers’ credit standing is not shown in the balance sheet to the detriment of the economic performance of the business entity.
• Articulate positions supporting the need for modernization of insurance regulation.
• Leverage the concepts in this presentation to incorporate enhanced predictive analytics in reserving analyses.
Moderator/Panelist: Krzysztof Ostaszewski, Professor and Actuarial Program Director, Illinois State University
Panelists: Gary Wang, Consulting Actuary, Pinnacle Actuarial Resources
James Jones, Illinois State University
C-25R: Surprise, Surprise — The Next “Big One” Might Just Be a Casualty
Catastrophe!
Ballard
See descripton on page 16.
Issaquah
C-30: Weaving ERM into Operations
Enterprise risk management has been around now for a while. Companies and rating agencies understand its importance. However,
how are these companies implementing it? This session will discuss the process of moving from initial discussions of ERM to a
full-blown implementation of an ERM plan within a company.
• Take your company from initial discussions of ERM to full-blown ERM.
• Avoid pitfalls experienced so far with implementing ERM.
Moderator: David Snow, Executive Vice President, Willis Re
Panelists: Kenneth Van Laar, Chief Risk Officer, State Compensation Insurance Fund
Jason Christopherson, Chief Financial Officer, The Mutual Fire Insurance Company of
British Columbia
Dave Ingram, Executive Vice President, Willis Re
43
C-32: Who Wants to Be an Actuary?
Cedar
Come refresh your knowledge of actuarial professionalism in this interactive session! This trivia game will cover a number of
topics including a review of the code of conduct and ASOPs, helping you determine what you know and what you might want
to review. Who said professionalism can’t be fun? This session may count as professional continuing education.
•
Apply the Code of Professional Conduct Precepts, Actuarial Standards of Practice (ASOPs), and the Statement of Principles
to actuarial work.
• Review the proper actuarial documents.
• Utilize resources available to help actuaries abide by the standards.
Facilitators: Kimberly Guerriero, Consulting Actuary, Milliman
Michael Donnelly, AVP, Actuarial, Arch Insurance Group
Mike Starke, Manager, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP
C-33: Why Johnny Doesn’t Listen: How Learning Styles Influence Productivity
Your coworkers bring many skills and talents to the workplace. Many of these remain untapped due to breakdowns in information
exchange (communication). This session will help you discover practical tools for getting the most out of every person on your team!
• Recognize how you best give and receive information.
• Recognize how and why others best receive and give information.
• Recognize adult learning styles in coworkers.
Moderator: Regina Kintana, Consultant, Liberty Mutual Insurance
Panelists: Elizabeth Pozzanghera, Partner, Another Way Consulting
Agnes Furst, Partner-Consultant, Another Way Consulting
44
P-1: Research Topic: The Low Interest Rate Environment & ACA Impacts on
Workers’ Comp and Auto
Redwood
The Low Interest Rate Environment Working Party Report
The Low Interest Rate Environment Working Party was formed to investigate the impact of the historically low interest rates
on P&C insurance companies. In particular the question of whether insurers were taking greater risk in their investments was
considered, and whether a sudden rise to more historically normal rates would cause problems within the industry.
Impact on Workers’ Comp and Auto of the Affordable Care Act: A Research Project of the Health Care Issues Committee
Despite the fact that U.S. workers’ compensation (WC) systems provide tens of billions of dollars in medical care each year, relatively little is known about how changes in health insurance availability affect the incidence and nature of WC claims, and the
theoretical relationship is ambiguous. In this paper, we use the Affordable Care Act’s young adult dependent coverage expansion to
measure the effect of health insurance expansions on WC claim frequency and severity. Using millions of hospital records drawn
from four large states with distinct WC systems, we find that a 25 percent reduction in uninsurance in the affected population
was associated with a four percent to eight percent drop in WC bills. This decrease was driven by harder-to-verify conditions,
such as strains and sprains, as well as more expensive WC claims. These results suggest that the Affordable Care Act’s coverage
expansions may serve to broadly, albeit modestly, lower costs in the WC system.
•
Incorporate findings and potential outcomes from the working party’s report to reflect implications of interest rate movements
in your analyses and communications.
• With the insights from the study of ACA impact, participants will be able to more directly reflect implications of the ACA
on Workers’ Compensation analyses.
Speakers: Philip Armour, Professor, RAND Corporation
Paul Heaton, Senior Fellow, University of Pennsylvania Law School
Chris Gross, President, Gross Consulting
45
Roundtable Sessions—Optional
2:45 – 3:45 p.m.
R-1: Actuarial Lone Rangers: What to Do When the Nearest Fellow is (Hundreds of) Miles Away
Aspen
This roundtable will discuss the challenges and opportunities of working as a solo and/or small company actuary. If you are working
in such a role, come meet other lone rangers and share your experiences so we can all glean something to take back to our outposts.
Facilitators: Meyer Lehman, Chief Actuary, Continental Western Group
Brant Wipperman, Pricing Actuary, Peace Hills Insurance
R-2: China’s P&C Insurance Market Current Advancements and Future Challenges
Ballard
After significant growth over the last few decades, the China insurance market is facing a wide variety of new opportunities and
challenges, especially due to the moderation of overall economic growth. In this session, we will discuss current advancements
and future challenges for the industry including but not limited to an overview of China’s P&C market; new and creative P&C
insurance products; and UBI application in auto insurance. This roundtable will be conducted in Mandarin.
Facilitator: Jun Yan, Specialist Leader, Deloitte Consulting LLP
R-3: Impact of Healthcare Reform on P&C Insurance
Cedar
The Affordable Care Act was signed into effect in 2010, and, while it has had significant impact on the number of uninsured
Americans, its full impact on the property/casualty industry has not yet been felt. We will discuss the implications of this legislation on both the P&C industry and its customers, both corporate and personal.
Facilitator: Ann Conway, Managing Director, Willis Towers Watson
R-4: Integrating ERM
Issaquah
The roundtable will be a discussion of the successes and problems that the participants have seen or encountered personally along
the road to integrating ERM into insurance company operations. Discussion will be operated under Chatham House Rule (i.e.,
participants can feel free to use what they learn, but not repeat anything with attribution). The group will also seek to provide
each other with potential approaches to resolving implementation issues.
Facilitator: Dave Ingram, EVP, Willis Re
R-5: Model Implementation
Oftentimes, once we have finalized our model, something happens between model building and what is deployed. In this roundtable, the group will share their experiences with roadblocks that have faced on the path from model validated and ready to go
to what is actually implemented and any methods, tactics and strategies we have used in getting the models we built deployed.
Facilitators: Ridhima Handa, Predictive Analytics, Zurich North America
46
Roundtable Sessions—Optional
R-6: Shark Tanking Ratemaking and Product Design
Redwood
Recent reporting suggests accelerators and venture capitalists are awakening to the possibilities new data sources and business
models for our industry. This roundtable will analyze recent innovations in areas such as usage-based insurance (UBI), social
media, wearables and wellness, connected homes and businesses, and peer-to-peer/micro-insurance. The roundtable will debate
which hold the greatest potential for our industry and profession.
Facilitator: James Weiss, Manager - Actuarial, Insurance Services Office
R-7: The CAS and You for New Fellows
New Fellows are invited to join this roundtable discussion about what the CAS has to offer now that they have completed their
exams. The CAS needs new Fellows to be prepared to lead the Society into the future, and this roundtable is an opportunity to
share your perspectives while learning how to become involved. In addition, we will discuss how to better engage new members
in the CAS membership community. This roundtable is limited to new Fellows only.
Limited to 24 participants.
Facilitators: Wesley Griffiths, 2nd VP and Actuary, The Travelers Companies
Adina Erdfarb, Actuary, Chubb
R-8: Advancing Your Actuarial Career through the CAS: The New Associate Perspective
New Associates are invited to participate in this roundtable discussion about their decision to pursue a career as a casualty actuary through the CAS. As the CAS pursues an aggressive marketing strategy to attract students to the CAS career path, the input
of new Associates is invaluable. Building on the State of the CAS discussion during the opening general session, we will invite
new Associates to share their perspectives on how the CAS can position itself as the best career path for aspiring actuaries. This
roundtable is limited to new Associates only.
Limited to 24 participants.
Facilitators: Kimberly Guerriero, Consulting Actuary, Milliman
Matthew Caruso, Membership and Volunteer Manager, Casualty Actuarial Society
R-9: An Update from Admissions
Willow
This roundtable will continue the discussion from the concurrent session. Topics will include how CAS Admissions is addressing
specific suggestions from a candidate working group session; incorporating technology into the examination process; restructuring the Admissions department and related volunteer opportunities; and other priorities for the coming year. The content will be
similar to that presented at the 2015 Annual Meeting, but candidates are still welcome to attend to interact with the presenters.
Facilitator: Steven Armstrong, Chief Pricing Actuary, QBE North America
47
WEDNESDAY, MAY 18, 2016
8:00 a.m. – 9:15 a.m.
Redwood
C-3R: Advanced Predictive Modeling in Ratemaking and Reserving
C-12: Interaction Between Actuaries, Predictive Modelers and Underwriters
As companies make increasing use of predictive modeling to price and underwrite insurance policies, interaction among predictive
modelers, pricing actuaries, and underwriters takes on greater importance. These roles may be served by actuaries, but that is not
always the case. This requires that actuaries successfully communicate the technical aspects of their work to a diverse audience.
It also means that actuaries need to be able to understand the various perspectives of each role and how to turn analytical findings
into actionable information that drives improved results. The panel will discuss how these interactions can be most effective,
including sharing of best-practices as well as lessons learned from their experiences.
• Improve communication of predictive modeling work to business partners.
• Improve understanding of the various perspectives that each participant brings.
• Turn analytical findings into actionable information.
Moderator/Panelist: Steven Armstrong, Chief Pricing Actuary, QBE North America
Panelists: Greg Frankowiak, P&C Underwriting Director, State Farm
Todd Hoivik, 2nd VP and Actuary, Travelers
Eric Huls, Senior Vice President Quantitative Research & Analytics, Allstate Insurance
Company
C-21R: Incorporating Predictive Analytics in Reserving: Why and How?
48
C-23: RMAD Disclosures in the Statement of Actuarial Opinion: An Analysis of the
Evidence
Cedar
We review the statements of actuarial opinion (SAOs) for the largest property and casualty insurers in the U.S. and examine the
required disclosures that are tied to the risk of material adverse deviation (RMAD). This session gives actuaries an understanding
of the actual disclosures, thresholds and bases used by actuaries in the 2013 SAOs. The aim of this study is to begin a discussion
on what factors should be considered when selecting an RMAD threshold for a specific insurer.
• Review the purpose, specific documents and current guidance available that discuss the required RMAD disclosures in the
SAO.
• Review the evidence from 2013 SAOs: What methods did actuaries use to determine the RMAD threshold? How many
companies subsequently breached their RMAD threshold in 2014? What material risks were specifically mentioned?
•
Discuss several factors actuaries may consider when selecting an RMAD threshold. Does the choice of the threshold impact
the RMAD disclosure?
Moderator/Panelist: Greg Fears, Consulting Actuary, Pinnacle Actuarial Resources, Inc.
Panelists: Kevin Ahlgrim, Associate Professor, Illinois State University
Erich Brandt, Consulting Actuary, Pinnacle Actuarial Resources, Inc.
Aspen
C-24: Strategies to Manage Reputational and Conduct Risk Around the World
The challenges around managing reputational and conduct risk around the world keep increasing. Insurers deal with pressures
from NGOs, the press, regulators and other government authorities. Regulatory attitudes, particularly in Europe, are changing
and practices that were tolerated in some jurisdictions are now being challenged. This session will look at some strategies that
insurers can employ to help manage these risks with a focus on property-casualty insurance products and underwriting. Sessions
will focus on:
• Evaluating product characteristics (design and distribution) for reputational and conduct risk.
• Managing reputational risk as part of the underwriting process (how does one evaluate who one should do business with).
• Identify key product characteristics that impact conduct and reputational risk.
• Be better equipped to ask the right questions and get into detail when working with new programs.
Moderator/Panelist: William Von Seggern, Risk Coverage Officer, Allianz SE
Panelists: Stephen Wilcox, Chief Risk Officer, Allianz UK
Daniel Roth, Vice President, Product Development, Allianz Global Assistance
49
C-32R: Who Wants to Be an Actuary?
Willow
Facilitators:
Kimberly Guerriero, Consulting Actuary, Milliman
Linda Brobeck, Brobeck Analytics Consulting, LLC
Mike Starke, Manager, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP
9:45 a.m. – 11:15 a.m.
G-4: Insuring the Future: How Emerging Technologies Are Changing the Face of
Risk
Grand Ballroom BCD
The wireless and connected world is just beginning to change the way we live. It may not be long before driverless cars are taking people to work, drones are delivering packages to your door, and people are controlling their home heating systems, laundry
machines, and coffee makers from their mobile phones. In this session we will explore how new technologies could have an
impact on potential insurance claims. This session will also address how insurers can plan for and assess emerging risks — how
early recognition and assessment of potential loss exposures from these and other emerging risks can help carriers anticipate and
prepare for underwriting and claims pitfalls, disruptive financial consequences, negative customer reaction, and other downstream
ramifications. Understanding the loss potential as well as growth opportunity of emerging risks is critical and successfully doing
so will better position insurers to meet the needs of today’s policyholders and the changing marketplace for years to come.
• Understand the emerging issues facing the insurance industry.
• Understand opportunities and risks these emerging risks present.
Moderator: David Cummings, Senior Vice President, ISO Solutions
Panelists: Kevin Bingham, Principal, Deloitte Consulting
Charlie Kingdollar, Vice President - Global Emerging Issues, Gen Re
Michael Doyle, Actuarial Director, ISO Solutions
50
Congratulations to Travelers’ newly credentialed CAS actuaries.
ACAS
Andrew Brady
Kelsie Paquin
Wei Miao Guo
Courtney Zhu
LuLu Ji
We are proud of you and your accomplishments!
Connect
with us:
travelers.com/Careers
facebook.com/travelerscareers
linkedin.com/company/travelers/careers
twitter.com/trv_careers
travelers.com
© 2015 The Travelers Indemnity Company. All rights reserved. Travelers and the Travelers Umbrella logo are registered trademarks of The Travelers Indemnity Company in the U.S. and other countries.
M-17530 Rev 10-15
51
Personal Attendance Record
The Casualty Actuarial Society (CAS) designates this educational activity for a maximum of 15.2 CE credits. Participants should
claim credit commensurate with the extent of their participation in the activity. It is an actuary’s responsibility to make a reasonable, good-faith determination of what CE opportunities will enhance his or her ability to practice in a desired field. CAS members
earn 1 CE Credit per 50 minutes of educational session time, not to include breaks or lunch.
Educational Activity
Day Start Time Attended
Featured Speaker (earn up to 1.2 CE )
Robert Stephens
M
9:15 a.m.
M
T
T
3:40 p.m.
8:00 a.m.
8:00 a.m.
W
9:45 a.m.
M
1:30 p.m.
M
T
W
M
M
T
T
M
T
10:45 a.m.
1:15 p.m.
8:00 a.m.
10:45 a.m.
1:30 p.m.
10:00 a.m.
1:15 p.m.
10:45 a.m.
10:00 a.m.
M
1:30 p.m.
T
M
T
W
M
M
T
T
T
10:00 a.m.
10:45 a.m.
10:00 a.m.
8:00 a.m.
10:45 a.m.
1:30 p.m.
10:00 a.m.
1:15 p.m.
10:00 a.m.
M
10:45 a.m.
General Sessions (earn up to 1.8 CE per General Session)
G-1
G-2
G-3
G-4
Twenty Five Years of Actuarial Research: Successes and Open Problems
Data Visualization
Cyberrisk
Insuring the Future: How Emerging Technologies Are Changing the Face of
Risk
Concurrent Sessions (earn up to 1.5 CE per Concurrent Session)
C-1
C-2
C-3
Actuarial Involvement in Program Business
Actuarial Lone Rangers: What to Do When the Nearest Fellow Is (Hundreds of )
Miles Away
Advanced Predictive Modeling in Ratemaking and Reserving
C-4
The Biggest Problem with Your Pricing Model Is Your Reserving Model
C-5
C-6
C-7
China’s P&C Insurance Market Current Advancements and Future Challenges
China’s Reinsurance Market Update
Disruptive Forces Facing the Insurance Industry
C-8
Fair Valuation of Insurance-Linked Securities and Fully Collateralized
Reinsurance
Generalized Linear Models with Correlated Frequency and Severity — Theory
and Case Studies for Ontario
Health Care Reform — Where It’s All Going *
Integrating ERM for Maximum ROI
Interaction among Actuaries, Predictive Modelers and Underwriters
Lights! Camera! Professionalism! *
C-9
C-10
C-11
C-12
C-13
C-14
C-15
C-16
C-17
Looking for the Next Earthquake Surprise: The Unknowns of Earthquakes
Modeling Tail Variance
Play It Clean: Handling Manipulation in the Workplace *
Predictive Modeling: Tips for Data Scientists and Actuaries and How to
Implement a Predictive Model
All sessions will be recorded except where indicated above by an asterisk (*).
52
Personal Attendance Record
C-18
C-19
C-20
C-21
Presenting Your Data Graphically
Purple Haze: Marijuana Legalization and the Impacts on Insurance
Recognizing Trends and Managing Risk in Tomorrow’s Insurance Market
Incorporating Predictive Analytics in Reserving: Why and How?
C-22
C-24
C-25
Reserving in Uncertain Economic Conditions — Compare and Contrast
RMAD Disclosures in the Statement of Actuarial Opinion: An Analysis of the
Evidence
Strategies to Manage Reputational and Conduct Risk Around the World
Surprise, Surprise — The Next “Big One” Might Just Be a Casualty Catastrophe!
C-26
C-27
C-28
C-29
C-30
C-31
C-32
An Update from Admissions *
Update on iCAS and the Coming of New Specialist Credentials
Using Actuarial Methods to Minimize Chronic Disease
Washington Rate Filings: From Initial Filing Submission to Approval *
Weaving ERM into Operations
What the CAS Staff Actuary Means for You
Who Wants to be an Actuary? *
C-33
Why Johnny Doesn’t Listen: How Learning Styles Influence Productivity *
P-1
Research Topic: The Low Interest Rate Environment & ACA Impacts on
Workers’ Comp and Auto
Variance: #1: Advances in Common Shock Modeling & #2: Risk Classification
for Claim Counts and Losses Using Regression Models for Location, Scale and
Shape
Roundtable Discussions (up to 1.2 CE)*
C-23
P-2
All sessions will be recorded except where indicated above by an asterisk (*).
53
M
M
M
T
W
10:45 a.m.
10:45 a.m.
1:30 p.m.
1:15 p.m.
8:00 a.m.
T
10:00 a.m.
W
W
M
T
T
M
M
T
T
M
T
W
T
8:00 a.m.
8:00 a.m.
1:30 p.m.
1:15 p.m.
10:00 a.m.
1:30 p.m.
1:30 p.m.
10:00 a.m.
1:15 p.m.
10:45 a.m.
1:15 p.m.
8:00 a.m.
1:15 p.m.
T
1:15 p.m.
M
1:30 p.m.
T
2:45 p.m.
2016 Spring Meeting Schedule
Meeting space is located on Second and Third Floor of hotel, unless otherwise indicated.
Second Floor: Grand Ballroom, Aspen, Cedar, Redwood, Willow
Third Floor: Ballard, Issaquah, Metropolitan A, Metropolitan B, Ravenna
Sunday, May 15, 2016
4:00 p.m. – 6:30 p.m.
Registration................................................................................ 2nd Floor Pre-Function Area
6:30 p.m. – 7:30 p.m.
Welcome Reception, Sponsored by EY................................................ Metropolitan Ballroom
5:00 p.m. – 6:30 p.m.
Monday, May 16, 2016
Recognition Reception for New Associates and their Spouses/Guests.......Grand Ballroom A
7:00 a.m. – 5:00 p.m.
8:15 a.m. – 9:00 a.m.
Celebration of New Members............................................................... Grand Ballroom BCD
7:00 a.m. – 9:00 a.m.
9:15 a.m. – 10:15 a.m.
10:15 a.m. – 10:45 a.m.
10:45 a.m. – 12:00 p.m.
Continental Breakfast................................................................ 2nd Floor Pre-Function Area
Featured Speaker: Robert Stephens...................................................... Grand Ballroom BCD
Refreshment Break, Sponsored by FIS....................................... 2nd Floor Pre-Function Area
Concurrent Sessions 1
Aspen
Ballard
Cedar
C-2 Actuarial Lone Rangers: What
to Do When the Nearest Fellow
is (Hundreds of ) Miles Away
C-31 What the CAS Staff
Actuary Means for You
C-10 Health Care Reform —
Where It’s All Going
Issaquah
C-18 Presenting Your Data Graphically
C-17 Predictive Modeling: Tips for
Data Scientists and Actuaries and How
to Implement a Predictive Model
C-7 Disruptive Forces Facing
The Insurance industry
Ravenna
Redwood
Willow
C-4 The Biggest Problem with Your
Pricing Model Is Your Reserving Model
C-13 Lights! Camera! Professionalism!
C-19 Purple Haze: Marijuana Legalization
and the Impacts on Insurance
12:00 p.m. – 1:30 p.m.
1:30 p.m. – 2:45 p.m.
Luncheon, Sponsored by Milliman....................................................... Grand Ballroom BCD
Aspen
Ballard
Cedar
C-1 Actuarial Involvement
in Program Business
P-2 Variance: #1: Advances in Common Shock Modeling
& #2: Risk Classification for Claim Counts and Losses
Using Regression Models for Location, Scale and Shape
C-28 Using Actuarial Methods
to Minimize Chronic Disease
Issaquah
C27: Update on iCAS and the Coming
of New Specialist Credentials
C-20 Recognizing Trends and Managing
Risk in Tomorrow’s Insurance Market
C-4 The Biggest Problem with Your
Pricing Model Is Your Reserving Model
Ravenna
Redwood
Willow
C-25 Surprise, Surprise — The Next “Big
One” Might Just Be a Casualty Catastrophe!
C-13 Lights! Camera! Professionalism!
C-8 Fair Valuation of InsuranceLinked Securities and Fully
Collateralized Reinsurance
2:45 p.m. – 3:10 p.m.
3:10 p.m. – 3:40 p.m.
Business Session.................................................................................... Grand Ballroom BCD
Refreshment Break, Sponsored by FIS....................................... 2nd Floor Pre-Function Area
54
3:40 p.m. – 4:55 p.m.
5:30 p.m. – 6:30 p.m.
6:30 p.m. – 7:30 p.m.
General Session 1: Twenty Five Years of Actuarial
Research: Successes and Open Problems.............................................. Grand Ballroom BCD
Officers’ Reception for New Fellows
and their Spouses/Guests.....................................Cirrus Ballroom, 35th Floor, Pike St. Tower
Networking Reception,
Sponsored by the Joint Risk Management Section.........Jefferson Room, 4th Floor, Union St.
Tower
Remainder of evening is yours to enjoy
Tuesday, May 17, 2016
7:00 a.m. – 2:00 p.m.
Registration ............................................................................... 2nd Floor Pre-Function Area
8:00 a.m. – 9:30 a.m.
General Session: G-2: Data Visualization.............................................. Grand Ballroom AB
7:00 a.m. – 9:00 a.m.
8:40 a.m. – 4:15 p.m.
9:30 a.m. – 10:00 a.m.
10:00 a.m. – 11:15 a.m.
Continental Breakfast,
Sponsored by Pinnacle Actuarial Resources, Inc........................ 2nd Floor Pre-Function Area
General Session: G-3: Cyberrisk............................................................Grand Ballroom CD
Student Program......................................................................................................... Ravenna
Refreshment Break,
Aspen
Ballard
Cedar
C-5 China’s P&C Insurance
Market Current Advancements
and Future Challenges
C-26 An Update from Admissions
C-22 Reserving in Uncertain Economic
Conditions — Compare and Contrast
Issaquah
C-29 Washington Rate Filings: From
Initial Filing Submission to Approval
C-9 Generalized Linear Models with
Correlated Frequency and Severity —
Theory and Case Studies for Ontario
C14 Looking for the Next Earthquake
Surprise: The Unknowns of Earthquakes
Redwood
Willow
Grand AB
C-11 Integrating ERM for Maximum ROI
C-16 Play It Clean: Handling
Manipulation in the Workplace
C-7 Disruptive Forces facing
The Insurance industry
11:15 a.m. – 1:15 p.m.
1:15 p.m. – 2:30 p.m.
Lunch on Your Own
Aspen
Ballard
Cedar
C-6 China’s Reinsurance Market Update
C-25 Surprise, Surprise — The Next “Big
One” Might Just Be a Casualty Catastrophe!
C-32 Who Wants to be an Actuary?
Issaquah
C-30 Weaving ERM into Operations
C-3 Advanced Predictive Modeling
in Ratemaking and Reserving
C-33 Why Johnny Doesn’t Listen: How
Learning Styles Influence Productivity
Redwood
Willow
Grand AB
P-1 Research Topic: The Low Interest
Rate Environment & ACA Impacts
on Workers’ Comp and Auto
C-15 Modeling Tail Variance
C-21 Incorporating Predictive Analytics
in Reserving: Why and How?
55
2:45 p.m. – 3:45 p.m.
Roundtable Discussions (OPTIONAL)
Roundtable 2 — China’s P&C Insurance Market
Current Advancements and Future Challenges............................................................. Ballard
Roundtable 1 — Actuarial Lone Rangers: What to Do
When the Nearest Fellow Is (Hundreds of ) Miles Away ..............................................Aspen
Roundtable 3 — Impact of Healthcare Reform on P&C Insurance............................... Cedar
Roundtable 4 — Integrating ERM............................................................................. Issaquah
Roundtable 5 — Model Implementation......................................... Metropolitan Ballroom A
Roundtable 6 — Shark Tanking Ratemaking and Product Design............................Redwood
Roundtable 7 — The CAS and You for New Fellows...................... Metropolitan Ballroom B
Roundtable 8 — Advancing Your Actuarial Career
through the CAS: The New Associate Perspective........................... Metropolitan Ballroom B
6:30 p.m. – 9:30 p.m.
Wednesday, May 18, 2016
7:00 a.m. – 11:45 a.m.
7:00 a.m. – 9:00 a.m.
8:00 a.m. – 9:15 a.m.
Roundtable 9 — An Update from Admissions.............................................................Willow
Tuesday Evening Buffet Dinner,
Sponsored by Liberty Mutual Insurance.......................................................Seattle Aquarium
Aspen
Cedar
C-24 Strategies to Manage Reputational
and Conduct Risk Around the World
C-23 RMAD Disclosures in the
Statement of Actuarial Opinion:
An Analysis of the Evidence
C-21 Incorporating Predictive Analytics
in Reserving: Why and How?
Redwood
Willow
C-12 Interaction Between Actuaries,
Predictive Modelers and Underwriters
C-3 Advanced Predictive Modeling
in Ratemaking and Reserving
C-32: Who Wants to Be an Actuary?
9:15 a.m. – 9:45 a.m.
9:45 a.m. – 11:15 a.m.
11:15 a.m. – 11:30 a.m.
Refreshment Break,
General Session: G-4: Insuring the Future: How
Emerging Technologies Are Changing the Face of Risk...................... Grand Ballroom BCD
Adjournment......................................................................................... Grand Ballroom BCD
56
Spouse/Guest Program
Sunday, May 15, 2016
4:00 p.m. – 6:30 p.m.
6:30 p.m. – 7:30 p.m.
Welcome Reception, Sponsored by EY................................................ Metropolitan Ballroom
5:00 p.m. – 6:30 p.m.
Monday, May 16, 2016
Recognition Reception for New Associates and their Spouses/Guests.......Grand Ballroom A
7:00 a.m. – 5:00 p.m.
8:15 a.m. – 9:00 a.m.
Celebration of New Members............................................................... Grand Ballroom BCD
7:00 a.m. – 9:00 a.m.
5:30 p.m. – 6:30 p.m.
Officers’ Reception for New Fellows
and their Spouses/Guests.....................................Cirrus Ballroom, 35th Floor, Pike St. Tower
Remainder of evening is yours to enjoy
Tuesday, May 17, 2016
7:00 a.m. – 9:00 a.m.
Continental Breakfast........................................ Broadmoor Hall A (Event Center Complex)
6:30 p.m. – 9:30 p.m.
Tuesday Evening Buffet Dinner,
Sponsored by Liberty Mutual Insurance ......................................................Seattle Aquarium
7:00 a.m. – 9:00 a.m.
Wednesday, May 18, 2016
7:00 a.m. – 9:00 a.m.
Continental Breakfast,
57
Notes
58
Notes
59
Hotel Map
FITNESS
CENTER
35
POOL
TORS
ELEVA
CIRRUS
UNION STREET TOWER
Elevators Floors 1-25
PIKE STREET TOWER
Elevators Floors 1, 2, 20-35
VIRGINIA
SHILSHOLE
UNIVERSITY
RICH
MON
D
4
SENECA
JEFFERSON A
ELEVATORS
PACIFIC
ALKI
BOARDROOM
DASH POINT
BOREN
JEFFERSON B
COLUMBIA
RAVENNA C
RAVENNA B
RAVENNA A
MEDINA
3
LESCHI
A
TORS
ELEVA
EVERETT
CAPITOL
HILL
A
FREMONT
B
C
GRAND BALLROOM
CEDAR B
GREENWOOD
D
WILLOW A
TORS
ELEVA
PREFUNCTION
WILLOW B
RS
LATO
ESCA
ELEVATORS
ONA
MADR
Floors 1, 2, 20-35
Floors 1-20
Escalator Floors 1-3
EXIT
DIAMOND A
CHELAN
LOBBY
LOUNGE
Pike
Street
ISSAQUAH B
SPRUCE
ASPEN
CEDAR A
1
ELEVATORS
PREFUNCTION
BALLARD
REDWOOD A
JUNIPER
ISSAQUAH A
METROPOLITAN BALLROOM
RS
ATO
ESCAL
REDWOOD B
2
KIRKLAND
B
EAGLE
BOARDROOM
RECEPTION
TORS
ELEVA
PIKE ST. TOWER
ESC
CONCIERGE
RS
ALATO
BELL DESK
MAIN ENTRANCE
DIAMOND B
LOBBY
GIFT
SHOP
UNION ST. TOWER
ELEVATORS
IN SHORT
ORDER
LINK@SHERATON
To Floors
1-25
EXIT
ELEVATORS
VALET PARKING
Union
Street
EXIT
6th Avenue
1st Floor
2nd Floor
3rd Floor
60
4th Floor
35th Floor
BELLDESK
ASPEN
BALLARD
Pike Street Tower:
Pike Street Tower:
Hotel Map
35
CIRRUS
POOL
UNION STREET TOWER
COLUMBIA BOREN
JEFFERSON B
JEFFERSON A
ALKI
PACIFIC BOARDROOM
ELEVATORS
RICH
SENECA
DASH POINT
4
MON
UNIVERSITY
D
SHILSHOLE
VIRGINIA
GREENWOOD
FITNESS
CENTER
PIKE STREET TOWER
Elevators Floors 1, 2, 20-35
BALLARD CAPITOL
HILL
EVERETT
FREMONT
ISSAQUAH B
ORS
CALAT
METROPOLITAN BALLROOM
PREFUNCTION ES
A
B
ISSAQUAH A
KIRKLAND
TORS
ELEVA
3
LESCHI
Floors 1, 2, 20-35
MEDINA
Floors 1-20
Escalator Floors 1-3
RAVENNA A
RAVENNA B
RAVENNA C
ESCAL
WILLOW B
WILLOW A
ATORS
ONA
MADR
JUNIPER
TORS
ELEVA
SPRUCE
PREFUNCTION
CEDAR A
CEDAR B
2
ASPEN
REDWOOD A
D
GRAND BALLROOM
C
B
REDWOOD B
A
EXIT
UNION ST. TOWER
ELEVATORS
EXIT
To Floors
1-25
LINK@SHERATON
IN SHORT
ORDER
GIFT
SHOP
VALET PARKING
LOBBY
BELL DESK
EAGLE
BOARDROOM CHELAN
DIAMOND B
Union
Street
MAIN ENTRANCE
ESCAL
S
ATOR
CONCIERGE
1
TORS
ELEVA
RECEPTION
DIAMOND A
LOBBY
LOUNGE
EXIT
Pike
Street
7th Avenue
1st Floor
2nd Floor
3rd Floor
61
4th Floor
35th Floor
BELL DESK
ASPEN
BALLARD
Pike Street Tower:
Pike Street Tower:
Casualty Actuarial Society
4350 N. Fairfax Drive, Suite 250
Arlington, VA 22203
www.casact.org

the On-Site Program

Transcription

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