Magical Cards

Magical Cards
EXTREME On the Ground Report
MAGICAL CARDS
Jokowi has introduced a number of pro-poor policies even before he became President
of Indonesia, while running as the Governor of Jakarta in 2012. He introduced Jakarta
Smart Card (KJP) and Jakarta Health Card (KJS) to help the poor cover basic expenses
such as tuition and health care. Since he became President, he extended these cards to
become nationwide policy introducing Indonesia Smart Card (KIP), Indonesia Health
Card (KIS), and Social Security Card (KKS). Extreme Team went on the ground and
talked to some of recepients of these magical cards focusing on KJP. The idea is to find
out the details of the implementation process, the feedback, and which listed companies
are likely to benefit.
Jakarta Smart Card (KJP) was first launched in 2013 when Jokowi became the new
Jakarta Governor. The budget was relatively small at under Rp1tn, but has since been
upsized quite significantly. KJP is literally a debit card issued by Bank DKI Jakarta,
which students can use to purchase items only in stores with EDC but not for cash
withdrawal. Extreme Team went to several Ramayana stores and stationery stores in
Central Jakarta. Based on our chat with the cashier in one of Ramayana stores, 7 out of
10 shoppers were actually paying using KJP. There are even items in Ramayana
supermarket eligible for KJP purchases. Extreme Team thinks Ramayana is clearly
benefiting from greater spending by KJP. Part of the rising contribution of Greater
Jakarta sales to overall sales in the past year is likely came from KJP spending.
Indonesia Smart Card (KIP) is a nationwide equivalent to Jakarta Smart Card (KJP)
given to eligible child under Social Security (KKS) family cardholder. KIP is also used as
identity card to register in schools, islamic boarding schools, learning groups or other
training centers. There is an overlap between KIP and KJP and we understand that only
one card is applicable to every students but not both, although the disbursement of KIP
is still cash and not direct debit like KJP. The two cards are bound to create confusion
among students and the control of usage of money under KIP will be difficult and prone
to abuse. We think students prefer KJP as the allowance is greater than KIP.
Along with KJP and KIP, Extreme Team also found out every poor household tends to
hold a number of other cards as well. These include 3-4 health cards issued by the
government in the last five years such as Jamkesmas, ASKES and BPJS. We also
discovered that one of the cards, KKS, which provides Rp200k allowance per family per
month has been inactive for a year. Bottom line, there is a lot of overlap between cards,
socialization among the recepients can be improved and execution is still not smooth. A
lot more details, infographics, and pictures from our finding are in the report. Below are
some listed companies that we think could benefit from higher spending under the
national cards.
INDONESIA
Economics
27th July 2016
Analysts
Felicia Putri Tjiasaka
E [email protected]
P +62 21 8067 3137
Sandy Ham
E [email protected]
P +62 21 8067 3138
Figure 1: Listed companies benefiting from magical cards
Sector
Pharmaceutical
Retail
Consumer Staples
Poultry
Company
PT Kalbe Farma Tbk.
PT Tempo Scan Pacific Tbk.
PT Industri Jamu dan Farmasi Sido Muncul Tbk.
PT Mitra Adiperkasa Tbk.
PT Sepatu Bata Tbk.
PT Ramayana Lestari Sentosa Tbk.
PT Matahari Department Store Tbk.
PT Matahari Putra Prima Tbk.
PT Hero Supermarket Tbk.
PT Ultrajaya Milk Industry & Trading Co Tbk.
PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk.
PT Unilever Indonesia Tbk.
PT Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk.
PT Mayora Indah Tbk.
PT Nippon Indosari Corpindo Tbk.
PT Siantar Top Tbk.
PT Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Tbk.
PT Japfa Comfeed Indonesia Tbk.
PT Malindo Feedmill Tbk.
Ticker
Mkt. Cap (Rp tn)
KLBF
TSPC
SIDO
MAPI
BATA
RALS
LPPF
MPPA
HERO
ULTJ
ICBP
UNVR
INDF
MYOR
ROTI
STTP
CPIN
JPFA
MAIN
78.0
9.0
9.1
7.3
1.1
8.2
61.7
9.8
4.7
12.1
102.3
353.1
67.2
35.6
8.4
5.1
63.8
14.4
3.7
PE (x)
2016E
2017E
35,56
31,46
14,25
12,71
19,99
17,34
36,6
20,24
22,68
20,28
28,11
24,21
63,89
35,08
19,13
15,99
29,06
26,37
53,69
48,03
17,24
15,24
26,14
21,91
28,13
23,83
23,49
19,56
17,58
14,38
18,91
14,08
PB (x)
2016E
2017E
6,66
5,93
1,97
1,84
3,42
3,23
2,34
2,12
2,3
2,18
29,31
19,74
3,5
3,29
4,33
3,59
5,92
5,27
64,93
59,1
2,26
2,06
5,62
4,7
5,9
4,86
4,39
3,76
2,24
1,95
1,98
1,79
Dividend Yield
2016E
2017E
1,2
1,39
3,79
4,17
4,11
4,33
0,06
0,35
2,21
2,41
2,15
2,6
0,88
1,02
1,54
1,86
1,76
1,96
2,34
2,85
0,95
1,07
0,55
0,63
0,99
1,17
0,5
1,09
0,65
1,06
Source: Bloomberg, Sucorinvest
July 2016
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Magical Cards
“The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have
much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little.” – President Franklin D.
Roosevelt
Jokowi has introduced a number of pro-poor policies even before he became President of
Indonesia, while running as the Governor of Jakarta in 2012. He introduced Jakarta Smart
Card (KJP) and Jakarta Health Card (KJS) to help the poor cover basic expenses such as
tuition and health care. Since he became President, he extended these cards to become
nationwide policy introducing Indonesia Smart Card (KIP), Indonesia Health Card (KIS), and
Social Security Card (KKS). The three national cards are to replace the older Social Security
Card (KPS), which was previously used for distribution of poverty aids. There are now five
cards in total and we like to call them “magical cards” as they indeed deliver significant relief
to the poorest segment of the society.
We sympathize with Jokowi’s focus on pro-poor policies as Indonesia ranks poorly in Human
Development Index at 110 out of 118 countries globally and fourth place in ASEAN-5, ahead
of only Phillipines. The average years of schooling is 7.6 years, lower than the nine year
Compulsory Education set by the government. In the health sector, Indonesia’s average life
expectancy is 69.1 years, again only ahead of Phillipines in the ASEAN-5. Extreme Team
went on the ground and talked to some recepients of these magical cards focusing on KJP.
The idea is to find out the details of the implementation process, the feedback, and which
listed companies are likely to benefit.
Figure 2: Introduction to “magical cards”
Jakarta
Indonesia
KJP
Abbreviation
KJS
Kartu Jakarta Pintar
KIP
KIS
KKS
Kartu Jakarta Sehat
Kartu Indonesia Pintar
Kartu Indonesia Sehat
Kartu Keluarga
Sejahtera
Health
Social Security
Sector
Education
Health
Education
Recipients
Primary - SHS students in
Jakarta who register & be
verified
Low income citizens in
Jakarta who register & be
verified
6 - 21 y.o children who
are registered in the list
Type of funding
Non-cash / Debit card
Identity card
Cash
Identity card
Cash
210 - 390 / child / month
Free medical treatment +
medicines
225 - 500 / child /
semester
Free medical
treatment + medicines
200 / family / month
Nominal (Rp '000)
Families who are registered in previous Social
Security Card (KPS) or in list of TNP2K
Source: Govt of Jakarta, TNP2K, Sucorinvest
Figure 3: ASEAN-5 Human Development Index 2015
Figure 4: ASEAN-5 Human Health Index 2015
Years
140
12
110
120
115
10
93
100
8
80
Years
90
%
83.1
5
75,0
80
74.9
69.1
68.5
70
3
50
62
6
60
4
40
40
2
30
20
2
11
20
0
0
Singapore
Malaysia
Thailand
HDI Rank (LHS)
Source: UNDP 2015, Sucorinvest
July 2016
Indonesia
Philippines
Mean Years of Schooling (RHS)
4
60
1
10
0
0
Singapore
Malaysia
Life Expectancy
Thailand
Indonesia
Philippines
Public health expenditure (as % of GDP)
Source: UNDP 2015, Sucorinvest
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Magical Cards
July 2016
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Magical Cards
Jakarta Smart Card (KJP) was first launched in 2013 when Jokowi became the new
Jakarta Governor. The budget was relatively small at under Rp1tn, implying Rp1.1mn
subsidy per student per year but has since been upsized quite significantly. The average
subsidy per student per year stood at Rp3.9mn in 2015, up more than threefold compared to
2014. KJP, the old version, was literally a debit card issued by Bank DKI Jakarta, with which
students could withdraw cash from ATM to purchase school-related items, up to late 2015.
However given that it was pure cash handout, there was no control in place on whether the
funds were used for school related items or other consumptive purposes. In late 2015, the
new Jakarta governor, Ahok who was Jokowi’s deputy previously, came up with a new idea
and changed the system of disbursement into non-cash. Now students can use the KJP
debit card to purchase items only in stores with EDC and not for cash withdrawal. The stores
act as a control mechanism for which items can be purchased using the KJP.
Figure 4: Budget allocation for KJP (Rptn)
2.30
0.70
Figure 5: Total number of KJP recepients
2.50
2.20
573.089
26.3%
73.7%
0.67
2014
561.408
531.007
41.5%
41.6%
58.5%
58.4%
2.39
2015
2016
Budget Allocation
Budget Realization
Source: DKI Provincial Budget, Sucorinvest
2014
2015
Private
Public
2016
Source: DKI Education Agency, Sucorinvest
Figure 6: Visit to poor homes in Bendungan Hilir and Kampung Bali
Source: Sucorinvest
July 2016
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Magical Cards
July 2016
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Magical Cards
Extreme Team explored the slum areas in Jakarta such as Bendungan Hilir, Kampung Bali,
Angke, Kota, Tanah Abang, and Cipinang to understand how KJP is being implemented.
Above are some of the pictures from our trips and also infographics on how to apply for KJP.
One slum area, Kampung Bali, was located right next to the river and we asked if any child
had ever fallen to the river. The mothers laughed and said: “Luckily none. The children even
jumped into the river and played. Sometimes, we joined them too.”
Most of the children in Kampung Bali attended schools with KJP funding. Some of their
parents worked as newspaper deliverymen, street singers, or not doing anything at all.
Under the KJP scheme, students are given monthly allocation. Part of this monthly allocation
is disbursed to students while the remaining is saved by the government to be disbursed at
the start of new semester (Figure 7). Students who are attending more expensive private
schools are also given additional allowance. The allowance varies by grade. By 2017, the
Jakarta governor plans to extend the subsidy to university students providing up to Rp18mn
per year for those who are accepted to a university.
Figure 7: KJP allowances in 2016
Primary (SD/MI/SDLB)
Monthly allocation
(Rp '000)
210
Monthly disbursement
(Rp '000)
100
Semesterly disbursement
(I & II)
500
Additional for private
school / month
130
Junior HS (SMP/MTs/SMPLB)
260
150
500
170
Senior HS (SMA/MA/SMALB)
375
200
500
290
Vocational (SMK)
390
200
500
240
Non-Formal (PKBM)
210
100
500
-
Level
Jan
100
Feb
100
Mar
100
KJP disbursement for 1 child / year (Primary School) - Rp '000
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
100
100
600
100
100
100
100
Nov
100
Dec
600
Total
2200
Source: Govt of Jakarta, Sucorinvest
Below are the type of stores that can accept KJP and also the type of items that can be
purchased. Students have to keep the bill of all purchases to be reported on every semester.
We also list the companies that could benefit from higher sales due to KJP.
Figure 8: List of stores, brands and price ranges available for KJP recipients
Type of stores
Name of stores
Health Store
Apotheque / Drugstore
Trade center / retail stores which have EDC machines, mostly in Pasar Jatinegara, Asemka, Senen and
Tanah Abang
Optical
Stationaries & tools
Clothes & shoes store
BATA Shoes store
Department store
Ramayana & Matahari Department Store
Supermarket & foodstore
Carrefour, Hypermart, HERO, Supermarket Ramayana, SPAR, Robinson
Bookstore
Gramedia, Toko Buku Gunung Agung
Sport store
Sport Station
Type of things allowed
Dental aids, hearing aids, walking aids, visual aids, glasses
Medicine, vitamin
School shoes and bags
Nutritious F&B
Student's needs ie. note book, drawing book, text book, exercise book, USB, scientific calculator
School uniform
Stationaries ie. ruler, crayon, spidol, paints, compass
Brand of things allowed
Brands sold in the stores
KLBF, TSPC, SIDO
Shoes (100-250k)
Bags (150-300k)
Homyped, Speed, Ardiles,
Palazzo, Tracker, Export
Kasogi, League, MAPI
Milk & Juice
Nugget
Biscuit
Cereal
CPIN,
UNVR, ICBP,
ULTJ, ICBP,
Nestle,
JPFA,
MYOR, INDF,
KLBF, UNVR
MYOR
MAIN
ROTI, STTP
Kiky, Sido, Sinar Dunia, etc.
Local / unbranded (75-90k)
Luna, Faber Castel, Staedtler, etc.
Extracurricular cost not funded by subsidy (BOP & BOS)
-
TransJakarta free ride by showing KJP and school uniformed (Mon-Sat at 5-7 am and 1-6 pm)
-
Source: Govt of Jakarta, Sucorinvest
July 2016
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Magical Cards
Extreme Team notices a few spending patterns among KJP recepients. Firstly, students
tend to save the monthly allowance until the start of new semester in order to buy more
expensive items such as shoes, uniforms, and bags. These typically make up the bulk of the
spending for the average student. Secondly, there is greater preference to shop in the
modern channel mainly driven by availability of EDC for payment, but also for greater
discounts and better shopping environment.
Extreme Team went to several Ramayana stores and stationery stores in Central Jakarta.
We investigated if store owners or cashiers were willing to conspire in issuing fake receipts
and the good news is all of them have no interest in profiting by abusing KJP. We went to
one of Ramayana stores in Palmerah and the cashier told us that 7 out of 10 shoppers were
paying using KJP. There are even items in Ramayana supermarket eligible for KJP
purchases.
Figure 9: How students allocate their spending
Others
10%
F&B
10%
Spending of Semester Allowances
Shoes
25%
Books
15%
Uniforms
15%
Value
(Rp '000)
Percentage
(%)
1 Shoes
150
30%
1 Bag
150
30%
2 Uniform
150
30%
Others
50
10%
Total
500
100%
Purchase
Bags
25%
Source: Sucorinvest
Figure 10: Visit to Ramayana in Palmerah and Sabang promoting usage of KJP
Source: Sucorinvest
Extreme Team thinks Ramayana is clearly benefiting from greater spending by KJP. Part of
the rising contribution of Greater Jakarta sales to overall sales in the past year from 32.7%
to 33.4% iin 2015 was likely helped by KJP spending. We estimate if 30% of KJP budget
were to be spent in Ramayana stores, it will add Rp750bn to the company’s existing revenue
base or equivalent to additional 10% growth.
July 2016
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Magical Cards
Extreme Team also visited ASEMKA stationery center in Central Jakarta and Gramedia
Gajah Mada. Interestingly, contribution from KJP is not significant for both stores. Sales
have also been rather flattish in the past months possibly due to students waiting for the
start of new semester before making their purchases.
Figure 11: Visit to stationery centers in ASEMKA
Source: Sucorinvest
Extreme Team explored further to test the boundaries on what can be purchased under KJP.
In the rules, snacks and instant food are not considered nutritious food and thus cannot be
purchased using KJP. However, we found out that food is a grey area and as long as the
cashier accepts, the items can be bought using KJP.
Figure 12: Food products are often grey area under KJP
Source: Sucorinvest
Some abuses in KJP do happen; they are documented and can be accessed in the KJP
website. Most abuses typically occur in gas stations and jewellery stores.
Figure 13: List of KJP abuses
No
School Level
Abuse
Value
(Rp '000)
No
School Level
Abuse
Value
(Rp '000)
1
SD (Primary School)
2
SD
700
11
SMP
650
Jewellery store
500
12
SD
600
Electronic store
3
SD
500
4
SD
500
13
SD
331
Solaria
14
SMK (Vocational School)
412
Travel agency
5
SD
6
SD
280
15
SMK
100
Karaoke
1900
16
SMK
403
Grand Indonesia
7
SD
200
8
SD
370
17
SMK
494
Grand Indonesia
18
SMK
350
9
SD
500
Clothing store
19
SMK
453
Automotive store
10
SMP (Junior HS)
500
Abuse
Location
Abuse Location
Gas station
Jewellery
store
Source: Govt of Jakarta
July 2016
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July 2016
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July 2016
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Indonesia Smart Card (KIP) is a nationwide equivalent to Jakarta Smart Card (KJP) given
to eligible child under Social Security (KKS) family cardholder. KIP is also used as identity
card to register in schools, islamic boarding schools, learning groups or other training
centers. There is overlap between KIP and KJP and we understand that only one card is
applicable to every students but not both, although the disbursement of KIP is still cash and
not direct debit. The two cards are bound to create confusion among students and the
control of usage of money under KIP will be difficult and prone to abuse. We think students
are likely to prefer the Jakarta Smart Card (KJP) as the allowance is larger than KIP. It is
worth noting that KIP is also a continuation program of Poor Student Assistance (BSM)
launched in 2014. The government targets a total of 19.5mn students to receive KIP cards in
2016.
Figure 17: KIP allowances are way lower compared to KJP
Level
Cash distribution per 6 months
(Rp '000)
Primary (SD/MI/SDLB)
225
Junior HS (SMP/MTs/SMPLB)
375
Senior HS (SMA/SMK/MA/SMALB)
500
Source: Ministy of Education
Along with KJP and KIP, Extreme Team discovered that every poor household tends to hold
a number of other cards as well, numbering to more than 10 cards for example in one
mother’s wallet. These include 3-4 health cards issued by the government in the last five
years such as Jamkesmas, ASKES and BPJS. We also found out that one of the cards,
KKS, which provides Rp200k allowance per family per month has been inactive for a year.
Bottom line there is a lot overlap between cards, socialization among the recepients can be
improved and execution is still not smooth.
Figure 18: Typical wallet for the poor containing a number of cards issued by the government
Source: Sucorinvest
July 2016
12
Magical Cards
Extreme Team visited the local clinics, Puskesmas, to understand how the health cards
work. We found out the administrative staffs in the clinics actually treat patients with health
cards differently compared to those without the cards. The process is often more
complicated for those with health cards, sometimes requiring referral letters before the
patients can receive medical treatment. This is despite the severity of the patients’
conditions. Patients, however, are still grateful for these health cards from our chats with
them. They have the opportunity to receive medical treatment for free and generic medicines
were also provided for free or at small nominal cost of only Rp2,000.
Figure 19: Visit to Puskesmas in Jakarta
Source: Sucorinvest
Lastly, Extreme Team visited the local district office to find out the process of obtaining the
letter to become receipient of national cards. The process is very manual with paper
applications submitted, amounting to thousands per week. The only online process currently
applies to Jakarta Smart Card (KJP). It takes about two weeks to obtain the clearance letter
certifying that the recepient is indeed in the poor income category. For students, the
application process start at school and the school will submit the applications to the local
distric office.
Figure 20: Visit to the local district office
Source: Sucorinvest
July 2016
13
Magical Cards
Following our EXTREME series...
and more to go...
July 2016
14
Magical Cards
Sucorinvest rating definition, analysts certification, and important disclosure
Ratings for Sectors
Overweight
Neutral
Underweight
: We expect the industry to perform better than the primary market index (JCI) over the next 12 months.
: We expect the industry to perform in line with the primary market index (JCI) over the next 12 months.
: We expect the industry to underperform the primary market index (JCI) over the next 12 months
Ratings for Stocks
Buy
Hold
Sell
: We expect this stock to give return (excluding dividend) of above 10% over the next 12 months.
: We expect this stock to give return of between -10% and 10% over the next 12 months.
: We expect this stock to give return of -10% or lower over the next 12 months
Analyst Certification
The research analyst(s) primarily responsible for the preparation of this research report hereby certify that all of the views
expressed in this research report accurately reflect their personal views about any and all of the subject securities or
issuers. The research analyst(s) also certify that no part of their compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly,
related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.
Disclaimers
This document has been prepared for general circulation based on information obtained from sources believed to be
reliable but we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness. PT Sucorinvest Central Gani accepts
no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this document or any solicitations of an
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positions in, and may affect transactions in securities mentioned herein from time to time in the open market or otherwise,
and may receive brokerage fees or act as principal or agent in dealings with respect to these companies. PT Sucorinvest
Central Gani may also seek investment banking business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result
investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
July 2016
15
Magical Cards
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60118
BALI
Jl. Raya Puputan Renon No.60C,
Denpasar 80226
Ph : (+62-361) 261 131
Fax: (+62-361) 261 132
GALERI INVESTASI
UNIVERSITAS MERDEKA
Jl. Terusan Dieng No.59, Malang
65146
Ph: (+62-341) 580 900
KEDIRI
GALERI INVESTASI
UNIVERSITAS NUSANTARA
PGRI
Jl. KH Ahmad Dahlan 76,
Kediri 64112
Ph : (+62-354) 7417352
SURABAYA
Jl. Trunojoyo no.67
Surabaya 60264
Ph: (+62-31) 563 3720
Fax: (+62-31) 563 3710
Jl. Slamet no. 37
Surabaya 60272
Ph : (+62-31) 547 9252
Fax : (+62-31) 547 0598
Ruko Pakuwon Town Square
AA2-50
Jl. Kejawen Putih Mutiara,
Surabaya 60112
Ph: (+62-31) 5825 3448
Fax: (+62-31) 5825 3449
JL.Hegarmanah No.57
Bandung 40141
Ph: (+62-22)-203 3065
Fax: (+62-22) 203 2809
Research Analysts
1. Alexander Budiman
2. Sharon Anastasia Tjahjadi
3. Felicia Putri Tjiasaka
4. Sandy Ham
5. Emily Bonosusatya
6. Erni Marsella
7. Putri K. Siregar
8. Ahmad Hapiz
July 2016
MALANG
Jl. Jaksa Agung Suprapto No.40
Kav. B4, Malang 68416
Ph: (+62-341) 346 900
Fax: (+62-341) 346 928
GALERI INVESTASI
Universitas Negeri Surabaya
PIC : Wahyudi Maksum
Kampus ketintang
Gedung bisnis centre fakultas
ekonomi
Jl. Ketintang, Surabaya 60231
Ph: (+62-31) 8297123
Sector
Transportation, Infra
Property
Extreme On The Ground
Extreme On The Ground
Consumer
Banking
Economist
Research Assistant
Email
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
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