Tom Turrentine - PEV Collaborative

Acceleratingthetransitionto
electric/zeroemissionsmobility:
Amicro&macroperspectiveon
marketdevelopment
TomTurrentine
PECVCollaborativemeeting
March8,SanDiego
WhatareCalifornia’sgoalfornextphase
ofmarket?
• Californiagoals?
– Sustaincurrentannualrateofgrowth?
– Doublerateofgrowth?
– MeetZEVgoals,climategoals?
– Sustainablemarket?Endmajorincentives?
– Engagedcitizens- buyers?
PH&EVCenter“Roll-out&ramp-upresearch”
Annual&semiannual“big”&“contextual”longitudinal data
Studying the‘Evolution” oftheZEVmarket;theinteractionofpolicy, technology, energysystems
andconsumerculture
• GilTal&Mike
Nicholas
• MikeNicholas
&GilTal
• KenKurani
• TomTurrentine
USPEV
buyer
studies
UScar
buyers&
PEVs
PEV
household
use
patterns
Theworld
PEV
market
6
• LewFulton
• GilTal
• TomTurrentine
LongitudinalBehavioralResearchonPEVMarket
DevelopmentProcessesatUCDavis
•
GilTal2014-15:>10,000completedsurveysfromCalif.&USPEVdrivers(also
usedPEVmarket),newsurveymid-yearforUS
•
KenKurani2014-2015:>10,000completedsurveysfromCalif&USgeneral
market,newsurvey2016mid-yearforCalif.
•
KenKuraniOngoinginterviews&workshopswithbuyers
•
MikeNicholas2015-17:1yearofGPS&OBDdata(>40variables)fromallvehicles
in240CaliforniaPEVhouseholds(totalof700vehicles)2016-17.
•
TomTurrentine 2016-17:Comparativestudiesofinternationalmarkets&PEVuse
datathroughcollaborationwithsimilargroupstoUCD:sofarChina,Netherlands,
Norway,UK,Germany,Sweden,Portugal,Canada,Brazil.
Challenges&opportunitiesinPEV
marketdevelopment
Slowturnoveroffleet(10-20years)
Lowcostofgasoline;shifttolargervehicles
HighCostofZEVandPEVtechnologies
Rateofproductrolloutintoallvehicleclasses
Developmentrateofconsumerawareness,
knowledge,experience&productvaluation
• Unevendevelopmentofcharging
infrastructure
•
•
•
•
•
SeveralsurveysbyKenKuranishowstrongevidencethat
awareness,knowledgeandconsiderationofPEVsisstillonlya
smallnumberofCaliforniacarbuyers
Have you considered buying a vehicle that runs on
electricity for your household?
…have not and would not…
2%
4%
…have not …but maybe
some day we will
18%
13%
…idea has occurred, but no
real steps have been taken…
…gathered information, but
haven't really gotten serious
32%
31%
…shopped for one, visited a
dealership...
...already have a vehicle
powered by electricity
NinestatestudybyKenKuranishowssimilar
“Haveyouconsideredavehiclethatrunson
electricityforyourhousehold?”
100%
I (we) have not and would not
consider buying a vehicle that runs
on electricity
90%
80%
I (we) have not considered buying a
vehicle that runs on electricity but
maybe some day we will
70%
60%
The idea has occurred, but no real
steps have been taken to shop for one
50%
40%
Started to gather some information,
but haven not really gotten serious
yet
30%
20%
Shopped for an electric vehicle,
including a visit to at least one
dealership to test drive
10%
ar
yl
an
N
d
ES
CA
U
M
D
el
aw
M
ar
as
e
sa
ch
us
et
ts
N
ew
Je
rs
ey
k
Yo
r
I (we) already have a vehicle
powered by electricity
M
N
ew
to
n
in
g
n
W
as
h
re
go
O
Ca
lif
o
rn
ia
0%
10
“Areyoufamiliarenoughwiththesetypesofvehiclesto
makeadecisionaboutwhetheronewouldberightforyour
household?”
Scale:-3=no,3=yes.Meanscores.
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
-1.00
CA
ICEV
OR
HEV
WA
BEV
NESCAUM
NY
PHEV
MA
MD
FCEV
NJ
DE
11
Women’s rate of participation in the market for PEVs appears to be much
lower than in the market for all vehicles – source Ken Kurani UCD
Percent of vehicle transactions attributed to women
0%
New (all)
Used (all)
CA PEVs
Leaf
Volt
Tesla S
MINI E
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Inarecentninestatestudy,KenKuranirunsseveralmodelsand
estimates3.3millionpersonswhoaremostlikely“nextbuyers”
basedonavarietyoffactors
Occupied housing
units (US Census)
Vehicle available
(ACS)
% buy new
(est. from past
UCD surveys)
% Design PEV
or FCEV
Game 3
1,522,988
92%
33%
38.7%
180,555
12,617,280
92%
33%
38.1%
1,476,097
Washington
2,645,396
93%
33%
35.9%
294,746
Maryland
2,155,983
91%
33%
31.4%
204,375
Delaware
339,046
94%
33%
28.0%
29,616
New York
Massachusett
s
7,255,528
70%
33%
27.9%
474,244
2,538,485
87%
33%
27.7%
204,908
NESCAUM
16,078,204
81%
33%
26.6%
1,151,394
New Jersey
3,188,498
88%
33%
23.7%
222,248
Oregon
California
Total*
* Total includes all NESCAUM without double counting Massachusetts, New Jersey, and New York
Population
Estimate
3,336,783
13
Tospeedupthisprocessa campaignmustpayattentionto
bothmicro&macrodevelopmentprocesses
– SocialprocessandvaluationofZEVs
• Developmentofnorms
• Culturalsensibilitiesaboutthefutureofvehicles
– Consumerlearningand“valuation”ofZEV
technologies
•
•
•
•
•
Awareness(attention,exposure)
Knowledgedevelopment
Experience(drive,charge,watchneighborusevehicles)
Attitudeformation(dislike,desire)
Values(importance,lifestylegoals,socialnorms)
Micro:Consumerlearning&“valuation”ofPEVs:a
householdconsumption-productionapproach.
• EarlybuyersarecreatingwhatChicagoeconomistGaryBecker
(EconomicsNobel1992)called“culturalcapital”
– Householdsactlikefirms,combiningmoneyandtimetoproduce
“consumption”outputs
– But,valuationingreenandtechinnovationisbotha“practical”butalsoa
socialproductionprocess
• Ingreenmarkets,thisisparticularlynotable,whereboth
“knowledge”andconsumptionactionsaresocialvalues
– Thustheactofbuying,drivingandcommunicationaboutaPEV,isatype
ofsocial-culturalinvestment
– Acrudedefinitionwouldbea“status”good,butgreentechismuchmore
complicated
• Ingreenmarketsthehouseholdisa“partner”withthe
manufacturerandretailsector,thegovernmentandinthecaseof
PEVsthepowerprovider
Macro:PEVmarketengagesseveralsectors;
Sectorsheremeansgroupsofactorsworkingtogetherorcompeting
“Diffusion of Innovations” framework is about both macromarket development as well as micro processes – consumer
information, learning & interpersonal influence.
Influenceovertime
betweendistinct
typesofbuyers
Technology
Enthusiasts
Visionaries
Pragmatists
Conservatives
Laggards
{
Late
Majority
{
Early
Majority
{
Early
Adopters
{
{
Innovators
Skeptics
originsinanthropologyandformalizedinruralsociology,now
popularinhightechmarketing
17
CurvebasedonrolloutofHEVsinJapan&California1997-2015
Thetransitiontoelectric
vehiclesisevolvingby
generationsofvehicles&
marketdiffusion
4th generation
3rd generation:
batteries,
vehicles, “core
market”
2nd generation 800,000 PEVS
batteries,
1st generation
vehicles,
policy, vehicles,
“followers”
“innovators” &
2025
infrastructure 500,000 PEVs
200,000 PEVs
2020
2010
700
2015
1-2%
300200
2030
California
2025ZEVgoal
=15%/1.5
million BEVS,
FCV&PHEVs
Early core
market:
6-15%
3-5%ofmarket
150Lithium packpricesperkWh
Main market
15-25%
Themainmarkettaskistoassistthisdiffusionprocess
1st generation
1- 3 % of
market,
200,000 PEVs
2nd generation
3-5% of
market,500,000
PEVs
150,000 PEV
innovator
households
“Earlyadopters”
alsocalled
“FastFollowers”
“Innovators”
2010
2015
2020
Innovatorsfrom1st Generationmarketwillbebuyingsome
portionofthe2nd Generationmarket– perhaps100,000
1st generation
1- 3 % of
market,
200,000 PEVs
2nd generation
3-5% of
market,500,000
new PEVs
150,000 PEV
innovator
households
Andagrowing
usedPEV
market
“Earlyadopters”
alsocalled
“FastFollowers”
“Innovators 2nd, 3rd
PEV purchases”
“Innovators”
UsedPEVs
2010
2015
Sofar,these“Innovators”aremostlyaffluentbuyers,with
severalvehicles,ownhomes,higheducation:sourceGilTal
2+newCars
1NewCar
Nonewcars
25%
20%
10%
5%
$250,000+
$200-249,999
$150-199,999
$100-149,999
$75-99,999
$50-74,999
$35-49,999
0%
$25-34,999
66%ofthe
householdsdid
notpurchase
newcarinthe
last5years
15%
$0-9,999
27%
bought1
car=65%
ofnewcar
purchases
$10- 24,999
7%ofHH
purchased
2+cars=
35%ofnew
cars
CAPEVbuyersare“very”affluentsofar,despitethegood
dealsonPEVs- sourceGilTal
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Less
than
$24,999
$25,000 $50,000 $75,000 $100,000 $150,000
$200,000
No
to
to
to
to
to
ormore answer
$49,999 $74,999 $99,999 $149,999 $199,999
ICE
4%
12%
17%
18%
25%
12%
13%
0%
Hybrid
1%
7%
10%
14%
30%
17%
22%
0%
PRIUSPLUG-IN
1%
1%
1%
4%
17%
18%
36%
22%
VOLT
0%
1%
5%
7%
21%
16%
35%
15%
LEAF
0%
2%
3%
7%
18%
15%
33%
21%
In 2015 22% of PEV Buyers are on their 2nd or 3rd
PEV purchase, 10% have 2-3 PEVs in their household
30%
20-25%
25%
20%
15%
FirstPEV
HadaPEV
Have2+PEVs
10%
5%
0%
2012
2013
2014
NewtsPEVmodelyear
2015
RoleofInterpersonalInfluence
A
E
C
D
B
J
F
…
SpreadInformation
e.g.diffusionofinnovations
Therealprocessofsociallearningcanbecomplex
tostudy,HereisonehouseholdfromJonnAxsen’s
dissertationworkonelectricvehiclesandsocial
influence.
Stranger
Notcontactedbyego
Lowerinfluenceinteraction
Modinfluenceinteraction
SocialProximitytotheRhodes
XX
XX
Casual
Acquaint.
Larry’s
Martial
Arts
Cheryl’s
Running
Group
XX
Higherinfluenceinteraction
Interviewedcontact
Somewhatclosetie
Veryclosetie
4th Circle
3rd Circle
2nd Circle
Larry’sWork
1st Circle
Close
Neighbors
Son’s
School
Close
Family
LarryandCherylRhode
Vacation
Friends
Former
Colleagues
Norwayhasachievedhighmarket– over
20%ina15yearpolicyprocess
• Thegovernmenthasassistedagroupcalledthe
EVAssociation($50)for1yeartonewbuyers,
so30,000membersnow.
– Theyrunaforum,chargingstationdatabase,EV
parades,testdrives
– 2016isgetting$200,000supportfromgovernment
– Anothergroup,GreenVehicle,doesoutreachto
municipalfleets.
– SpecialLicenseplatesforEVs
Whatmightacampaignlooklike?
• Awarenesscampaign:PEVsareforsale,150,000
CaliforniahouseholdsareusingPEVseachday
• Knowledgedevelopment:Schoolcurriculums,
• DevelopingExperience:Connecting200,000
CaliforniaPEVownersanddealerstothe
potentialonemillion2nd generationbuyersKen
Kuranihasidentifiedthroughrideanddrives.
• Valuation:MediacampaignZEVs&PEVsarethe
futureofpersonaltransport
• Researchfeedback:Precisemeasurementsof
progressineacharea
Governments
Electricity
providers
Manufacturers
Earlybuyers(first
15years)