Climate Change Capacity Workshop Arasha Resort, Ecuador

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Climate Change Capacity Workshop Arasha Resort, Ecuador
Adaptation and the Human
Dimension – an Introduction in the
Context of Indonesian Wetlands
Terry Hills
11 May 2011
Overview
1. What is the relationship between
wellbeing of wetland-dependent
communities and climate change
exposures – threats and
opportunities?
2. For one climate exposure – sea level
rise: what to we know and how can
this inform the adaptation options?
The Cascade of Uncertainty in Climate Change Adaptation
Source: Wilby and Dessai - 2010
Background
Key Services Relevant to Human Wellbeing
Nurseries/
Protection from
Predators
Rapid Nutrient
Cycling
Water
Regulation
Primary and Secondary Production
Coastal Protection
Coastal Ecosystem Service Relationships
Source: Framing the Flow (UNEP/WCMC) - 2010
Climate Change Exposures in
Indonesia and Wetland Ecosystems
Changes in:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Seasonality (wet/dry season)
Mean temperature
Mean precipitation
Distribution/intensity/frequency floods
Distribution/intensity/frequency drought
Distribution/intensity/frequency storms
Sea level
Ocean acidity
Wetland Ecosystems and Climate Change
Physically
Vulnerable
to Climate
Change
Part of the
Solution for
Vulnerable
Coastal
Communities
Coastal Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation
1 - Protect(P): defend vulnerable areas, especially population
centres, economic activities and natural resources
2 - Accommodate(A): continue to occupy vulnerable areas,
but accept the greater degree of flooding by changing land
use, construction methods and/or improving
preparedness
3 - Retreat(R): abandon structures in currently developed
areas, resettle inhabitants and require that new
development is set back from the shore, as appropriate.
Unplanned retreat is not considered.
(IPCC - CZMS 1990)
Key Factors for Accommodation of
Sea Level Rise in Mangrove Systems
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•
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Hydrological site characteristics
Vegetation species
Rate of sea level rise
Presence of natural or artificial barriers
Local sediment budget
1.
2.
3.
4.
Increase carbon stock
Reduce coastal erosion
Protection of people as
‘bioshield’
Create/maintain fisheries
productivity
…. And ’climate proofing’ is relevant to all
Increasing complexity
Objectives for Mangrove Projects
Hydrological Classification (Watson, 1928)
Hydrological Classification (Oostewaal, 2010)
(Oostewaal, 2011)
Conclusion
• Great uncertainty in climate change,
so need better knowledge and/or
robust systems to reduce vulnerability
• Tropical wetland ecosystems are
vulnerable but can be robust solutions
to CC, if well managed – Sukardjo’s 8
Points
• Simple tools and rules are needed to
better climate-proof mangrove
projects. Progress is being made in the
development of these tools – eg sea
level rise
Background
Terima Kasih

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