Demographic Update - Highland Park ISD

Demographic Update - Highland Park ISD

Highland Park I.S.D. Demographic Update June 12, 2014 Population & Survey Analysts *  Largest Demographic Firm in Texas
*  Work Only with School Districts *  Work with Approximately 30-­‐35 Districts per Year *  Has a 20+ Year Relationship with Real Estate Brokers, City Planners and Other Experts in the DFW Area *  Demographic Team includes Specialists in Economics, Geography, Legal Issues, and GIS Systems Population and Survey Analysts:
The Consultants
Pat Guseman,
Ph.D.
Stacey Tepera,
Ph.D.
Kris Pool,
J.D.
Jennifer
Steen
Jim
Bouse
Travis
Scott
Grant
Guseman
President
Genevieve
Le
Recent Clients (2012-­‐2014) DFW Area
Houston Area
Austin Area
Birdville I.S.D.
Cedar Hill I.S.D.
DeSoto I.S.D.
Duncanville I.S.D.
Frisco I.S.D.
Godley I.S.D.
Highland Park I.S.D.
Lovejoy I.S.D.
Mansfield I.S.D.
Mesquite I.S.D.
Prosper I.S.D..
Conroe I.S.D.
Crosby I.S.D.
Cy-Fair I.S.D.
Dayton I.S.D.
Fort Bend I.S.D.
Friendswood I.S.D.
Goose Creek C.I.S.D.
Humble I.S.D.
Katy I.S.D.
Klein I.S.D.
Lamar C.I.S.D.
Needville I.S.D.
Sheldon I.S.D.
Waller I.S.D.
Dripping Springs
Lake Travis I.S.D.
Leander I.S.D.
Manor I.S.D.
Central Texas
Bryan I.S.D.
Copperas Cove I.S.D.
Midway I.S.D.
Waco I.S.D.
West Texas
Ector Co. I.S.D.
Plainview I.S.D.
Population & Survey Analysts H.P.I.S.D. Demographic Trends
Employment Trends
Housing Projections
Ratios: Students per Household
Projected Student Enrollment
Long Range Planning
Total Enrollment
Square
Miles
(Pre-PEIMS)
inSurvey,
4th Week
Highland
Park
2010-11
I.S.D.
Absolute Change in Student Enrollment
2012-13 to 2013-14
Total Enrollment
(Pre-PEIMS)
4th Week Survey,
2010-11
Percent Change in Student Enrollment
2012-13 to 2013-14
Total Enrollment
(Pre-PEIMS)
4th Week Survey,
2010-11
Absolute Change in Student Enrollment
2008-09 to 2013-14
Total Enrollment
(Pre-PEIMS)
4th Week Survey,
2010-11
Percent Change in Student Enrollment
2008-09 to 2013-14
Total Enrollment
(Pre-PEIMS)
4th Week Survey,
2010-11
Unique Demographic Characteristics Highland Park I.S.D.: 2013-­‐2014 Several factors give Highland Park I.S.D. a competitive advantage for attracting new residents: • No Economically Disadvantaged population (0%) • High STAAR passage rate (95.8%) -­‐-­‐-­‐ based on PASA’s assessment of all Texas school districts (Spring 2013) • Highly educated population (83% have bachelor’s degree) • High median income level ($175,000) • Short commute time (17.3 minutes) Economically Disadvantaged Population
2013-14
Economically Disadvantaged Student Population:
2013-14
Rank District Name
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
HIGHLAND PARK ISD
CARROLL ISD
EANES ISD
FRIENDSWOOD ISD
COPPELL ISD
PROSPER ISD
FRISCO ISD
LAKE TRAVIS ISD
DRIPPING SPRINGS ISD
ALLEN ISD
Percent
Disadvantaged
0.00%
2.10%
3.10%
8.50%
10.20%
10.70%
11.30%
12.60%
12.70%
15.80%
* Of 174 Districts with 5,000 or more students
Percent of Students Passing STAAR (Level II)
3rd-8th Grade 2012-13
Total Enrollment
(Pre-PEIMS)
4th Week Survey,
2010-11
2012-13 STAAR Results 3rd-8th Grade
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
District Name
CARROLL ISD
HIGHLAND PARK ISD
EANES ISD
LAKE TRAVIS ISD
FRISCO ISD
ALLEN ISD
PROSPER ISD
COPPELL ISD
FRIENDSWOOD ISD
BOERNE ISD
2012-13
Enrollment
7,711
6,848
7,865
7,809
42,707
19,894
5,505
10,999
6,005
7,094
Passed
Level II
96.3%
95.8%
93.7%
93.2%
92.4%
92.0%
89.5%
88.9%
88.7%
87.0%
* Of 171 Districts with 5,000 or more students
Past Growth Rates 4 3.74% 3.5 Annual Growth
3 2.76% 2.5 1.85% 2 1.72% 1.5 1 0.65% 0.5 0.11% 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Kindergarten Students as Percent of Total
Enrollment Fall 2013
Total Enrollment
(Pre-PEIMS)
4th Week Survey,
2010-11
Kindergarten Enrollment vs. Births 2012-13
% Chg 12-13/
11-10
12
27
486
542
540
518
553
528
502
580
527
524
524
517
480
-30.8%
-4.0%
0.7%
7.6%
-7.7%
0.0%
9.1%
-10.2%
9.2%
4.4%
-1.3%
0.8%
7.3%
-2.6%
2013-14
35
501
531
561
566
536
553
550
523
575
539
526
529
512
Total
6,848
0.65%
7,037
EE
Historical
Growth
Trends:
963
Students
Added in 10
Years
KN
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
% Chg 13-14/
12-13
29.6%
3.1%
-2.0%
3.9%
9.3%
-3.1%
4.7%
9.6%
-9.8%
9.1%
2.9%
0.4%
2.3%
6.7%
2.76%
Private Schools Current Enrollment
Grades
Projected 5 Years
Current
Enrollment
From HPISD
in KN+
Enrollment
in 5 yrs.
From HPISD
in KN+
0
0
42
450
1,045
430
0
0
43
Christ the King
K - 8th
390
1,040
424
Creative School at Walnut Hill United
Methodist Church
PK - K
138
0
140
0
Dallas Academy (Lattner School)
1st - 12th
Dallas Lutheran School
7th - 12th
190
250
1,180
578
208
1,400
1,083
170
1,090
385
75
76
162
160
1,100
29
13
165
0
16
67
200
1
55
39
18
4
8
28
52
200
275
1,180
615
225
1,500
1,080
200
1,100
450
75
70
165
170
1,150
30
14
165
0
17
71
199
2
55
45
18
4
8
29
54
Akiba Academy of Dallas
Bishop Lynch High School
Episcopal School of Dallas
PK-8th
9th- 12th
3yrs - 12th
Good Shepherd Episcopal School
PK - 8th
Grace Academy of Dallas
PK - 6th
Greenhill School
PK - 12th
The Hockaday School
PK - 12th
Holy Trinity Catholic School
PK - 8th
Jesuit College Preparatory School
9th - 12th
Lakehill Preparatory School
K - 12th
Lakewood Montessori
PK - 6th
Meadowbrook Private School
PK - K
Oak Hill Academy
PK - 12th
Our Redeemer Lutheran School
PK - 6th
Parish Episcopal School
PK - 12th
Private Schools (cont’d) Current Enrollment
Grades
Providence Christian School
PK - 8th
Scofield Christian School
PK - 6th
Shelton School
St. Alcuin Montessori
PK - 12th
PK - 9th
St. Christopher's Montessori
PK-KN
St. John's Episcopal School
PK - 8th
St. Mark's School of Texas
St. Monica School
St. Rita School
St. Thomas Aquinas School
1st - 12th
PK - 8th
K - 8th
3yrs - 8th
The Hillier School
1st - 8th
The Lamplighter School
PK - 4th
Trinity Christian Academy
K - 12th
Ursuline Academy of Dallas
Westwood School
White Rock North School
The Winston School
Zion Lutheran School
9th - 12th
2yrs - 12th
Inf-6th
1th - 12th
PK - 8th
Projected 5 Years
Current
Enrollment
From HPISD
in KN+
Enrollment
in 5 yrs.
From HPISD
in KN+
440
100
881
504
115
497
850
817
667
878
45
450
1520
820
295
278
175
275
198
2
93
22
6
9
128
0
67
8
0
45
30
0
13
2
18
35
500
125
900
565
115
500
850
888
725
900
45
500
1,530
830
325
280
200
350
225
2
95
25
6
9
128
0
73
8
0
50
31
0
14
2
20
45
Total
Overall percentage of HPISD residents in
private schools:
1,407
1,477
16.66%
16.22%
Population & Survey Analysts H.P.I.S.D. Demographic Trends
Employment Trends
Housing Projections
Ratios: Students per Household
Projected Student Enrollment
Long Range Planning
Annual Employment Trends
March
2013
September
2013
March
2014
542,860
6.8
555,112
6.8
559,892
5.7
6 Month
Percent
Change
Annual
Percent
Change
0.86%
3.14%
0.86%
3.14%
City of Dallas
Employment
Unemployment Rate
Dallas County
Employment
Unemployment Rate
1,108,405 1,133,421 1,143,181
6.7
6.6
5.7
Population & Survey Analysts H.P.I.S.D. Demographic Trends
Employment Trends
Housing Projections
Ratios: Students per Household
Projected Student Enrollment
Long Range Planning
Impacts of Existing Home Sales and on Enrollment in H.P.I.S.D. *  9,487 single-­‐family homes *  6,473 students reside in these 9,487 homes in 72 subdivisions; *  Of the 178 students added this year in these subdivisions, 138 students (or 78%) are in secondary grades (5th-­‐12th); *  Of the ~306 housing units currently for sale, ~230 are single-­‐family and the remainder are condos and apartment complexes *  Of the single-­‐family homes which sold in 2010 (the last Demographic Study), they yielded 0.37 new students per home every time a new homeowner moved in; *  Currently, when a home sells, some subdivisions can have up to 0.76 students per home more than the number of students who moved away. Impacts of Condos on Enrollment in H.P.I.S.D. *  975 condo units in the District *  331 students reside in these condos *  17% of the student growth this school year occurred in condos *  Of the 40 students added, 31 were in elementary schools (77%) *  Future of condos: larger new complexes are adding ~33,~15, 14, 8 , 6, and 6 units in the coming year alone *  Ratio of students per condo is 0.34, and that ratio could become 0.44 by 2023; thus, in the 975 current condos , there could be a maximum of 429 students in condos by 2023 (a 30% student increase) Impacts of Apartments on Enrollment in H.P.I.S.D. *  398 units are in 9 apt. complexes (w/smaller complexes also termed duplexes, quadraplexes, etc., but where residents live in rented multi-­‐
family units) *  348 units (or 94%) are occupied as of April, 2014 *  197 students reside in apartments *  Majority (67.5%) are in secondary schools – a very unique characteristic *  Future of apartments: tending toward “condo-­‐ization”, and also some small complexes are being renovated to have fewer, larger apts. *  Expect slightly fewer students in apartments by 2023-­‐24 Impacts of Higher Ratios of Students per Existing Home on Enrollment in H.P.I.S.D. *  H.P.I.S.D. has gained in densities of students per single-­‐family home from 0.65 to 0.68 in four years; *  Carroll I.S.D. -­‐-­‐ a somewhat comparable district, but with newer homes and therefore fewer empty-­‐nest households – has 0.88 students per single-­‐
family home; *  Lovejoy I.S.D. – another comparable district, but with newer homes and also fewer empty-­‐nest households – has 1.01 students per single-­‐family unit (up from 0.83 ~ 4 yrs. ago); *  Expectation: H.P.I.S.D. will grow from 0.68 to 0.71 or even 0.78 students per single-­‐family home over the next years; *  There are 9,487 single-­‐family homes in H.P.I.S.D., so a 0.78 ratio would add ~927 students to the already 6,473 students in single-­‐family homes today. Municipalities
in
Highland Park
I.S.D.
Student
Density
per
Municipal
Jurisdiction
in
Highland Park
I.S.D.
Geographic Factors Considered in
Projecting Future Student Growth
*  Where have homes sold in the past 4 years? *  Where are lots being combined or subdivided? *  Where are new building permits being issued? *  Which areas might experience more tear-­‐down and re-­‐building of homes? *  Where are homes currently for sale? 4-Year Owner
Changes
in
Subdivisions
Net Change in
Platted Lots
in
University
Park
Jan 1, 2010 –
May 1, 2014
(Summarized
By Planning Unit)
Total Net Change in
University Park = -4 lots
Residential
Building
Permits
Jan 1, 2010 –
May 1, 2014
(Summarized
By Planning Unit)
Impacts of New Home Permits on Enrollment in H.P.I.S.D. Town of Highland Park New Home Permits: * 2010: 13 * 2011: 20 * 2012: 25 * 2013: 29 * 2014: 8 (Jan. to end April) or ~30 for 2014 Expectation for next 5 years: continued ~25+ new home permits per year if economy remains strong Impacts of New Home Permits on Enrollment in H.P.I.S.D. City of University Park New Home Permits: * 2010: 46 * 2011: 57 * 2012: 81 * 2013: 106 * 2014: 45 (Jan. to end April) or ~160 for 2014 Expectation for next 5 years: continued ~130 new home permits per year if economy remains strong Homes &
Duplexes
Built before 1954
and
Market Value <
$800,000
by Elementary
Attendance
Zone
Homes &
Duplexes
Built before 1954
and
Market Value <
$800,000
by Municipality
Homes &
Duplexes
Built before 1954
and
Market Value <
$800,000
by Planning
Unit
Single Family
Homes
and
Condo Units
For Sale
Single Family
Homes for
Sale
by
Elementary
Zones
Student Growth by
Type of Housing Added Students
Resident Resident
Students Students
in 2012
in 2013
2012 to 2013
#
%
Percent of
Growth
Apartments
181
197
16
9%
7%
Townhomes
5
7
2
40%
1%
291
331
40
14%
18%
6,291
6,469
178
3%
75%
Condos
Single-Family
Homes
Subdivisions with
Most Student Gains and Losses Student Growth
(2012 to 2013)
Largest
Gains
Largest
Losses
University Heights VI
31
University Highlands IV
15
Preston Heights
15
Methodist University Addition
-9
University Heights IX
-7
Francis Daniel Park
-6
Apartment Complexes Planning
Unit
19
12
28
12
24
14
12
1
12
Total :
Development
3434 M cFarlin
Cedar Lodge
Gables Highland
Park Brownstones
Inwood Gardens
Jacobs Apartments
Park Lane
Park's Edge
Shelton
Waterford Place
Address
Units
Occ'd
Units
Students
3434 McFarlin
6817 Lomo Alto Dr
6
52
6
47
3
0
4201 Lomo Alto
57
54
21
6903 & 6905 Lomo Alto
and 5825 Grassmere
14
13
4
18
40
43
110
32
372
442
18
40
39
99
32
348
--
0
12
15
26
21
102
95
4700 Abbott Ave
4117 Lovers Ln
4554 Glenwick Ln
5909 Luthern Ln
4501 Druid Ln
Other Developments with no available occupancy data
Planning
Unit
28
28
28
28
19
12
5
24
24
1
Largest Condo Developments Development
Crestpark in Highland Park
Gables Highland Park Residences
Park Plaza
Westpark Townhomes
Remington at SM U
Charleston Square
Northpark Garden Townhome
Highland Gates on Katy Trail
St. Charles
Eightyone Eightyone Douglas
Units
Students
132
55
46
46
35
34
32
26
23
20
18
25
6
1
11
22
23
11
8
2
Largest Condo Developments (cont’d) Planning
Unit
12
21
19
19
19
19
19
19
13
Total :
Development
Units
Students
The Compound Condos
Renaissance Corners
President's House
Normandy Place
3421 Normandy
Shenandoah Place
Franklin Towers 2
Georgetown Place
University Court TH
Condos
20
17
16
15
14
14
10
10
7
0
4
4
1
4
2
3
10
5
126
30
Projected New
Housing
Occupancies
April 2014
to
Oct 2014
Projected New
Housing
Occupancies
April 2014
to
Oct 2018
Projected New
Housing
Occupancies
Oct 2018
to
Oct 2023
Projected New
Housing
Occupancies
April 2014
to
Oct 2023
Projected
New Housing
Occupancies
(Excluding
Single-Family
Replacements)
2014 – 2023
Year Ending in
October:
Condos &
Duplexes
MultiFamily
Total New
Housing
Units
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
3
8
5
2
1
-5
13
0
0
8
16
-1
50
111
114
18
6
0
0
0
19
7
55
113
115
13
19
0
0
8
2014-2018
2018-2023
2014-2023
19
16
35
290
24
314
309
40
349
Housing Units in Highland Park ISD
Current and Future Single-Family
Multi-Family,
Condos, &
Duplexes
Total
#
%
#
%
8,370
71%
3,391
29%
11,761
Growth (2012-2014)
0
0%
23
100%
23
Projected Growth
(2014-2023)
0
0%
349
100%
349
Current Housing Units
(ACS Estimate in 2012)
Total Housing Units
(2023)
8,370 69% 3,763 31%
12,133
Population & Survey Analysts H.P.I.S.D. Demographic Trends
Employment Trends
Housing Projections
Ratios: Students per Household
Projected Student Enrollment
Long Range Planning
Highest Ratios
of Students per
Single Family Household Planning
Unit
14
22B
14
16
22B
5
Development
Methodist University Addition II
Landrums Addition
Preston Heights
Preston Place II
Summitt Lawn
Caruth Hills I
Ratio
1.28
1.14
1.12
1.07
1.04
1.02
Lowest Ratios
of Students per
Single Family Household Planning
Unit
24
27
17B
17A
27
6
17B
25
Development
Hackberry Creek
Highland Park IV
University Park Estates II
Windsor Park
Willow Wood
Caruth Court
Brookside Estates
Highland Park Acerage
Ratio
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.10
0.12
0.13
0.14
Increasing Student Density *  Current ratios (2014) *  0.68 students per single-­‐family home *  0.34 students per condo *  0.29 students per apartment unit *  Past ratios (2010) *  0.65 students per single-­‐family home *  0.17 students per condo *  0.10 students per apartment unit *  How did these homes become more dense with students? 2006 – 22% of homes occupied by 65+ years old 2012 – 20% of homes occupied by 65+ years old Population & Survey Analysts H.P.I.S.D. Demographic Trends
Employment Trends
Housing Projections
Ratios: Students per Household
Projected Student Enrollment
Long Range Planning
Moderate Growth Scenario Projected Enrollment at PEIMS Snapshot
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
Enrollment 7,196
7,322
7,438
7,564
7,628
7,762
7,855
7,928
8,048
8,137
% Growth 2.26% 1.75% 1.59% 1.69% 0.84% 1.76% 1.19% 0.94% 1.51% 1.11%
Growth
159
126
116
126
63
134
93
74
119
89
Three Scenarios of Growth 9,000
High Growth
8,890
8,500
Moderate
Growth
8,137
Enrollment
8,000
Low Growth
7,788
7,500
7,000
6,500
6,000
2006
2014
2023
Current &
Projected
(Fall, 2023)
Resident
EE-4th Grade
Students
Current &
Projected
(Fall, 2023)
Resident
5th-6th Grade
Students
Current &
Projected
(Fall, 2023)
Resident
7th-8th Grade
Students
Current &
Projected
(Fall, 2023)
Resident
9th-12th Grade
Students
Population & Survey Analysts H.P.I.S.D. Demographic Trends
Employment Trends
Housing Projections
Ratios: Students per Household
Projected Student Enrollment
Long Range Planning
Long Range Planning
Elementary Schools
Current 2014
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Proj'd Enrollment
2,730
2,757
2,743
2,717
2,721
2,717
2,759
2,802
2,844
2,887
2,930
% Utilization
103%
104% 104% 103% 103% 103% 104% 106% 107% 109% 111%
Proj'd Enrollment
2,730
2,782
% Utilization
103%
105% 105% 105% 106% 106% 108% 110% 112% 114% 117%
Proj'd Enrollment
2,730
2,802
% Utilization
103%
106% 107% 107% 109% 111% 114% 118% 121% 125% 128%
Low
Most
Likely
2,788
2,827
2,776
2,842
2,801
2,887
2,811
2,931
2,867
3,021
2,923
3,112
2,971
3,205
3,030
3,301
3,091
3,400
High
Combined Functional Capacity = 2,648
Projected
Resident
EE-4th
Grade
Students
Long Range Planning
Elementary Schools
Current 2014
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Residents
557
585
582
579
583
583
% Utiliz.
94%
98%
98%
97%
98%
98%
Residents
719
749
768
767
771
773
% Utiliz.
108%
Residents
759
% Utiliz.
108%
Residents
695
% Utiliz.
102%
593
600
609
616
624
Armstrong
100% 101% 103% 104% 105%
784
795
805
818
833
Bradfield
112% 115% 115% 115% 116% 117% 119% 121% 122% 125%
757
751
749
758
764
779
796
812
829
848
Hyer
University
Park
108% 107% 106% 108% 109% 111% 113% 115% 118% 120%
689
684
682
689
690
709
727
743
764
782
101% 100% 100% 101% 101% 104% 107% 109% 112% 115%
Long Range Planning
Intermediate School
Current 2014
Low
Most
Likely
High
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Proj'd
Enrollment
1,103
1,102
% Utilization
100%
100% 101% 106% 106% 105% 103% 101% 102% 104% 105%
Proj'd
Enrollment
1,103
1,110
% Utilization
100%
101% 102% 108% 108% 107% 106% 104% 107% 109% 110%
Proj'd
Enrollment
1,103
1,117
% Utilization
100%
102% 103% 110% 111% 111% 111% 110% 114% 117% 121%
Functional Capacity = 1,100
1,109
1,123
1,137
1,165
1,184
1,207
1,165
1,187
1,221
1,158
1,182
1,226
1,134
1,165
1,221
1,107
1,142
1,212
1,126
1,174
1,251
1,143
1,197
1,289
1,160
1,210
1,327
Long Range Planning
Middle School
Current 2014
Low
Most
Likely
High
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Proj'd
Enrollment
1,098
1,094
1,171
% Utilization
100%
99%
106% 106% 107% 112% 112% 112% 109% 107% 109%
Proj'd
Enrollment
1,098
1,102
1,186
% Utilization
100%
100% 108% 108% 109% 115% 115% 114% 113% 111% 114%
Proj'd
Enrollment
1,098
1,109
% Utilization
100%
101% 109% 110% 112% 119% 120% 121% 120% 119% 123%
Functional Capacity = 1,100
1,200
1,167
1,186
1,210
1,176
1,199
1,232
1,235
1,261
1,308
1,234
1,263
1,322
1,227
1,258
1,329
1,201
1,239
1,321
1,173
1,216
1,314
1,194
1,250
1,356
Long Range Planning
High School
Current 2014
Low
Most
Likely
High
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Proj'd
Enrollment
2,106
2,188
% Utilization
105%
109% 110% 113% 117% 116% 121% 123% 124% 127% 125%
Proj'd
Enrollment
2,106
2,203
% Utilization
105%
110% 111% 115% 119% 119% 123% 127% 127% 130% 129%
Proj'd
Enrollment
2,106
2,218
% Utilization
105%
111% 113% 117% 122% 123% 129% 134% 136% 140% 140%
Functional Capacity = 2,000
2,196
2,224
2,251
2,256
2,293
2,338
2,333
2,377
2,444
2,324
2,373
2,461
2,412
2,468
2,583
2,469
2,531
2,673
2,477
2,545
2,711
2,531
2,605
2,800
2,503
2,586
2,807
Highland Park I.S.D. Demographic Update June 12, 2014