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State of the Climate:
Recent Developments
Jake Crouch
Climate Monitoring Branch
NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center
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Outline
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Disclaimers, introductions, and other fun!
Climate: it’s complicated
Recent U.S. Climate
Recent Extreme Events
What to expect…
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Today
• Focused on the hereand-now of climate,
climate variability and
climate change.
• No polar bear pics …
okay, just one
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NCDChttp://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/climate-monitoring
Climate Monitoring Branch
• CMB established 1998
– During record-breaking
global temperatures
– Interest in climate [and its
change] was high
– CMB provides regular
updates of the State of the
Climate
– Mission: to “monitor and
assess the state of the
climate”
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In other words …
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And a little bit of this …
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About Me
• I’m a meteorologist by training & education
• I learned about weather systems, jet streams,
storms, tornadoes, etc.
– Then I got into weather observations
– Then I got into using long-term averages of weather
observations
– Then I got into big-picture climate
• But my meteorology background is only a tiny part
of the climate system, but there is an obvious
connection
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Data sources and resources
• BAMS State of the Climate
– (annual, peer-reviewed)
– http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/bams-state-of-theclimate/2010.php
• NCDC State of the Climate
– (monthly, internally reviewed)
– http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc
• NCDC Climate Monitoring
– (updated daily-to-monthly-to-annually, depends on
what you’re after)
– http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/climate-monitoring
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State of the Climate
• Annual supplement to
the Bulletin of the
American Meteorological
Society
• “Annual physical” of the
climate system
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/bams-state-of-the-climate/2010.php
Click on “Key Climate Indicators”
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BAMS SotC Authors & Editors
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305 authors from 43 Nations
Argentina, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Bolivia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China,
Colombia, Comoros, Costa Rica, Cuba, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France,
Germany, Iran, Italy, Jamaica, Japan, Kenya, Madagascar, Mauritius, Mexico,
Morocco, New Zealand, Niger, Paraguay, Peru, Russia, Seychelles, Solomon
Islands, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Taiwan, United Kingdom, United States,
Uruguay, Venezuela, Zimbabwe
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2011 Monthly updates from
NCDC State of the Climate
• Global:
– Global Analysis (surface
temp & precip)
– Upper Air
– Snow & Ice
– Hazards (what happened)
– El Nino / Southern
Oscillation
• United States:
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc
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– National Overview
– Drought
– Hurricanes & Tropical
Storms
– Snow & Ice
– Tornadoes
Relationship between weather &
climate
Literature Review: Stallone et al. (1976)
Weather
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Climate
El Nino / La Nina
• An oscillation or
“sloshing”
phenomenon.
• Has near-global impacts
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STATE OF THE CLIMATE: IN THE U.S.
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Summer 2011 Average Temperature
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August 2011 Average Temperature
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Summer 2011 Average Precipitation
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August 2011 Average Precipitation
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10 Billion Dollar US Climate Events
Date
Event
Summer
Upper Midwest Flooding (Missouri and Souris Rivers)
Spring/Summer
Mississippi River Flooding
May 22nd
Joplin, Missouri Tornado
April 25th-30th
Southeast Tornadoes
April 14th-16th
Midwest/Southeast Tornadoes
April 8th-11th
Southeast Tornadoes
April 4th-5th
Midwest/Southeast Tornadoes
February 2nd
Groundhogs Day Blizzard
Spring-ongoing
Southern Plains Drought/Heat/Wildfires
Late August
Hurricane Irene
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… So Far
Summer/Spring Floods
• February Snow Cover Extent
• Heavy Rainfall across Midwest
and Northern Plains
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Spring 2011 Tornado Outbreak
• 753 Tornadoes – most during any
month on record
• For the year-to-date there have
been over 549 tornado related
fatalities
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February Blizzard
• 20.2 inches of snow in Chicago –
the third most on record.
• Winds up to 70 mph
• Snowfall records broken in
Racine, WI
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Heat Waves/ Drought/ Wildfires
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Wildfire Activity through August 1st
80000
7000000
70000
6000000
50000
4000000
40000
3000000
30000
2000000
20000
1000000
10000
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Year
Number of fires
Acres Burned
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
0
2001
0
Acres Burned
5000000
2000
Number of Fires
60000
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Drought/Wetness
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Extremes in daily maximum temperatures
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Extremes in daily minimum temperatures
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Next Few months…
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El Niño
Neutral
La Niña
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September - October - November
Temperature
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Precipitation
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Jake Crouch
[email protected]
THANK YOU FOR YOUR TIME
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