Session 2-02 K Ireland - Plant Biosecurity CRC

Pathways and Risk Assessment Framework for High Impact
Species (PRAFHIS) (1109)
Dr K. B. Ireland (CSIRO), Dr M. Hodda (CSIRO) and Dr D. Paini (CSIRO).
Prioritisation of pests and pathogens is a key
concern for biosecurity agencies worldwide.
While there is a large body of research
undertaken in pathway analysis and pest
prioritisation for invasive species, little research
in either area has focused on distinguishing
high-impact from low-impact species.
Understanding the drivers of high-impact
pest incursions will enable us to test current
prioritisation approaches and design a risk
assessment framework that will build on those
current practices. These drivers may be pathway
or pest related, or a product of the interaction of
both pathway and pest characteristics.
The PRAFHIS project aims to:
The project will allow us to test some of the
basic assumptions in biosecurity - such as
whether incursion rates for high-impact pests
are increasing with time, whether currently
monitored pathways are the most likely entry
routes for high-impact pests, and whether
high-impact pest incursions are largely
predictable - empowering decision-makers
with the knowledge to improve prevention and
preparedness efforts to reduce the prevalence
and impacts of future high-impact pests.
1. Analyse the historical patterns of plant pest
arrivals to Australia and New Zealand, and
how these patterns relate to those species
which are considered to cause high impacts.
2. Test whether the pathways of high-impact
pests differ from those that cause little or no
impact.
3. Develop an empirically based and validated
prioritisation process for identifying future
high-impact pests.
Presenting author’s biography
Kylie is a passionate plant pathologist, with a bent
for ecological modelling and data science. Hailing
from the sunshine state, Kylie has undergraduate
qualifications in Political Science, Ecology and
Botany from the University of Queensland, and a
PBCRC supported doctoral qualification in Plant
Biosecurity – “Susceptibility of Australian Plants
to Sudden Oak Death (Phytophthora ramorum)” from Murdoch University in Perth.
Since graduating from her PhD, Kylie has
worked on forest pest and disease climatic
20 Science Exchange 2015 | Conference Handbook
niche modelling in Tasmania and myrtle rust
with Biosecurity Queensland. More recently,
she completed an 18 month volunteer plant
pathology assignment in Laos. Now based at the
CSIRO in Canberra, Kylie is looking forward to
marrying her interests of data science, ecology,
social sciences and plant pathology in the exciting
new trans-Tasman PBCRC PRAFHIS project.
Kylie B. Ireland
02 6218 3445
[email protected]
Session Two: Tools and techniques for the
identification of new and emerging plant pest threats
and pathways
Presentation title: Pathways and Risk Assessment
Framework for High Impact Species (PRAFHIS)
Presenter: Kylie Ireland
1109: Pathways and Risk Assessment
Framework for High-Impact Species
(PRAFHIS)
Dr Kylie Ireland
Postdoctoral Fellow
Plant Biosecurity Cooperative Research Centre
biosecurity built on science
Pierce’s disease
Sudden Oak Death
Asian Gypsy Moth
Peering into the past, to predict the future…
What is THE next big pest?
Where should we spend our $$$?
Aim
Tool(s)
Output
Analyse past
Literature review, industry Database
patterns of arrival survey….
Pathways?
Pest traits?
Prioritisation
process
Modelling – Bayesian….
End-user engagement,
tool integration…
Priority pathways &
pests
Framework
biosecurity built on science
Context: Invasion Biology
Transport
Establishment /
Abundance
Spread
IMPACT
Tens
rule
10,000
imported
1,000
introduced
100
established
10
pests
Blackburn et al. (2011). Trends in Ecology & Evolution 26(7): 333-339.
Chapple et al. (2012). Trends in Ecology & Evolution 27(1): 57-64.
biosecurity built on science
What makes a pest high impact?
Pathway Characteristics
Species Traits
Transport
Establishment /
Abundance
Spread
IMPACT
Blackburn et al. (2011). Trends in Ecology & Evolution 26(7): 333-339.
Chapple et al. (2012). Trends in Ecology & Evolution 27(1): 57-64.
biosecurity built on science
The Plan





Participant & end-user engagement -paramount!
Project scope
What is “Impact”?
Database development
Modelling – Predictors of High impact pests
- Pathway analysis
- Bayesian belief networks, hierarchical models….
 Risk assessment framework
- End-user assessment & project delivery
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PRAFHIS – Core Participants
biosecurity built on science
The End-User’s perspective
 Who are our end-users?
- Government (state & federal)
- Industry
- Researchers
 Prioritisation tool/framework
-
Flexible
Transparent
Easy to use
Harmonising
biosecurity built on science
Scope
 Plant industries
- Value $$$
- Temperate (excluding tropics)
 Exotic species only
 Included: insect pests, nematodes, pathogens
(viruses, bacteria, fungi, oomycetes)
 Excluded: weeds, vertebrate pests, pests of
bees.
biosecurity built on science
What is Impact?
 Develop common set of metrics
- Common language to improve cross-sectoral
communication
- Applicable across a range of spatio-temporal scales
 Integrate economic, environmental & sociopolitical values
- DCME (Liu & Cook) as decision-making tool
 Linking theory and management
- Epidemiology + Ecological theory = ?
biosecurity built on science
Challenges when defining Impact
 Economic values paramount?
- Increasing pressure to evaluate and manage
environmental and socio-political values….
 Trade/political impact + no/low production loss
e.g. Karnal bunt
 Industry adaptation
- High impact initially, adaptation and management
long term
- Smallholders vs Industry as a whole
biosecurity built on science
Database Structure
Pest Id
Pest
Impact
PP0006 H
PP0007 N
PP0008 N
PP0013 H
PP0018 H
PP0023 H
PP0024 H
PP0026 H
PP0032 Nuisance
PP0035 H
PP0036 M
PP0037 H
PP0038 N
PP0039 N
PP0042 N
PP0045 H
PP0046 H
Pest
Impact
Authority
Clarke
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Clarke
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Clarke
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Clarke
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Clarke
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Clarke
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Clarke
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Clarke
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Clarke
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Clarke
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Clarke
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Clarke
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Clarke
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Clarke
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Clarke
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Clarke
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Clarke
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Pest
Trade Impacts
Host Range
Organism
Impact On
Type
Crop
Impacted
Pest Name
Pest Common Name
Aleurocanthus spiniferus
Orange Spiny Whitefly
A
C
Aleurodicus dispersus
Spiralling Whitefly
A
C
Ametastegia glabrata
Dock Sawfly
A
C
Raspberry/Gra
pe
Bemisia tabaci biotype B
Silverleaf Whitefly
A
C
Horticultural
Coptotermes formosanus Formosan Termite
A
T
Timber
Frankliniella occidentalis
Western Flower Thrips
A
C
Horticultural
Hercinothrips femoralis
Banded Greenhouse Thrips
A
C
Horticultural
Hylotrupes bajulus
European House Borer
A
T
Softwood
Timber
Lachesilla quercus
Grain Psocid
A
S
Bulk Grain
Phenacoccus parvus
Lantana Mealybug
A
C
Vegetables
Phyllonorycter messaniellaOak Leafminer
A
E
Environmental
Pyrrhalta luteola
Elm Leaf Beetle
A
E
Environmental
Rhopalosiphon insertum
Apple-Grass Aphid
A
C
Fruit/Grain
Ribautiana ulmi
Elm Tree Leafhopper
A
E
Environmental
Scolytus multistriatus
Elm Bark Beetle
A
E
Environmental
Thrips palmi
Melon Thrips
A
C
Trogoderma variabile
Warehouse Beetle
A
S
Y
Citrus
P
P
Horticultural
Horticultural
Bulk Grain
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Industry & Expert Engagement
 5 High
 5 Moderate
 5 Low
 Economic
($/yield)
 Trade?
 Environment?
 Expert opinion
& experience
biosecurity built on science
Watch this space….
Milestone
Due
Data collection
Workshop/End-user engagement
Nov ’15 ()
Review & evaluate impact metrics
Nov ’15 (…)
Database complete
May ’16 (…)
Analysis
Pathway & pest characteristics analysis Nov ’16
Application
Risk assessment framework, including
end-user assessment
Final report
Nov ’17
Feb ’18
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Thank you
For more information, or to join the PRAFHIS email list,
please contact: [email protected]
biosecurity built on science