The Rising Silver Tide in japan ~ Eldercare

The Rising Silver Tide in japan
~ Eldercare Business Opportunities ~
Yasutomi Akabori
Lacura group
2015/3/27
Preface
 Trend of the world aging rate
 A change and future estimation of the number of the Japanese elderly
people
2P
3P
1
Trend of the world aging rate
Figure
1
Our country reaches the super aged society that no country else has ever experienced
Asia
Europe and America
Results
level
Value by
estimate
Results
level
Japan
Japan
Italy
China
Sweden
India
Spain
Germany
Indonesia
Philippines
France
The U.K.
Korea
Singapore
America
Advanced
Thailand
Advanced
area
Developing
area
area
Developing
area
(year)
Value by
estimate
(year)
Document
© copyright Lacura Group 2
A change and future estimation of the
number of the Japanese elderly people
Figure
2
Change of the population of elderly person in Japan
(ten thousand)
4500
4000
3500
3000
2223
1879
2257
2245
2385
1646
2179
2410
2278
2336
1407
2500
2000
1160
900
1500
75years old
65-74years old
717
597
1000
500
0
1749
1517
1733
1645
1407
1600
1495
1479
264
1301
1383
224
1407
1109
189
1225
164
892
107 139
699 776
1128
602
516
309 338 376 434
366
471
（Year）
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The present situation
of the Japanese Eldercare Market
 Market Features
 The Prospects of the Japanese Eldercare Market
 Life cycle of the care business market
 Accumulation of Market participants and their Characteristics,
Activities
 Market share of TOP 10 is Only 5% in 2014
 Market Players
 Two Aspect of Market Entry
 Foreign Players
5P
6P
7P
8P
9P
10P
11P
12P
4
Market Features
Low Entry Barrier
National Obligatory Eldercare Insurance
⇒Stable Remuneration
Fierce competition already started
Changing Characteristic of Senior People
⇒Traditional Japanese to More Self-assertive
© copyright Lacura Group 5
The Prospects of the Japanese Eldercare Market
Market size judging from a change of the total expense
of the Eldercare insurance
Figure
3
Eldercare insurance expense
（Trillion Yen）
25
20
21
15
10
9.4
5
6.7
3.6
0
2000
2007
2013
2025
（Year）
Source: Estimate by Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare
http://www.mhlw.go.jp/seisakunitsuite/bunya/hukushi_kaigo/kaigo_koureisha/gaiyo/dl/hoken.pdf
© copyright Lacura Group 6
Life cycle of the care business market
Figure
4
Mature Stage
Market size
Period of growth
Care
business
The introduction period
2000
2007
2015
2050
Year
© copyright Lacura Group 7
Accumulation of Market participants and their
Characteristics, Activities
Total Number of Eldercare Facilities
340,000（Nikkei newspaper 2015/Feb/19)
Number of Employees Per Company
10 or
less
22.3%
10 to
50
33.0%
50 to
100
23.7%
100 to
300
17.6%
300 or more
3.4%
Total Number of the companies was 7022 in 2009
Source : Teikoku Data Bank in 2009
Conclusion : Too Many Small Companies
© copyright Lacura Group 8
Market share of TOP 10 is Only 5% in 2014
1S$ = 87.22yen
Company name
Sales amount
(billion yen)
1
Nichii Gakkan
2
Benesse holding
79.5
3
Message
74.2
4
Tsukui
57.4
5
SECOM
53.8
6
Uni-mat Soyokaze
40.6
7
Watami
35.0
8
Saint care holding
31.4
9
Ship health care holding
18.8
10
Care 21
15.8
The total
271.4
677.9
List 1
© copyright Lacura Group
9
Market Players
“Diversification of Business Lines”
(Nichii Gakkan , Benesse , Watami , Toyota , Kepco )
“Effective Use of Idle land”
(Construction , Property , Railway Sectors)
Medical Institutions
Overwhelming Number of Small to Medium
companies including “Welfare” Specialist
© copyright Lacura Group
10
Two Aspect of Market Entry
Consumer(Senior People)-Oriented Business
Target
⇒
Rapidly Growing senior population
Supplier-Oriented Business
Target
⇒
Small to Medium Sized Companies
© copyright Lacura Group
11
Foreign Players
Ⅰ.H.C. bought 6 Nursing Homes
in Hokkaido
Buurtzorg(Holland)
© copyright Lacura Group
12
Restrictions and opportunities
in Japanese Eldercare Business
 System or Regulation of Japan
 Restrictions and Regulations
 Consumer(Senior People) Oriented-Business
 Supplier Oriented-Business
 Food
 Training
14P
15P
16-18P
19P
21P
22P
13
System or Regulation of Japan
Source: Prime Minister's office homepage
http://www.kantei.go.jp/jp/singi/keizaisaisei/
© copyright Lacura Group
14
International comparison
of the debt balance over GDP
Figure
5
Japan
year
Japan
America
The U.K.
Germany
France
Italy
Canada
Italy
year
Japan
France
America
America
The U.K.
Canada
The U.K.
Germany
Germany
France
Italy
Canada
Source: OECD "Economic Outlook 96“(2014 November)
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15
Consumer(Senior People) Oriented-Business
System of “National Eldercare Insurance
Eldercare Giver
Fulfill Service Obligation
set by Government
10%
90%
Client
Report
Government
© copyright Lacura Group
16
Consumer Oriented-Business ②
②Non-Insurance Business
For Senior People
House cleaning
Travel
All about Health
© copyright Lacura Group
17
Consumer Oriented-Business ③
③Private Eldercare Insurance
Straight, normal Insurance
Double insured
(parents and children)
© copyright Lacura Group
18
Supplier Oriented-Business
“Needs”
Shortage of Care Givers
Low Productivity
Capital Shortage
Fierce Competition
© copyright Lacura Group
19
Suppliers Oriented-Business
Opportunities
REIT
Investing in Nursing Homes, Hospitals
Recruiting(It is the Key)
“Sleeping "Care Givers
Senior Work Force
Foreigners
New Health Care related Business
(EX : Robotics , etc)
Sales Agency
M&A Advisory
Food
© copyright Lacura Group
20
Food
Lacura Group is Supplying Meals
for Senior People
Since 20yers ago
We Know Everything about Senior People
We Know How to Satisfy Various needs of Senior Meals
We have safe, high quality agricultural products
from Hokkaido
© copyright Lacura Group
21
Training
Caregiving Skill
Communication Skill
Containment method against
Infectious Diseases
© copyright Lacura Group
22