Connected car

Lo sviluppo del veicolo commerciale leggero
nell’ottica della specializzazione territoriale e
dell’ultimo miglio
Enrico Pisino
Head of Vehicle Research and Innovation
Fiat Chrysler Automobiles
MILAN
2 July, 2015
Index
 Upcoming challenges for the players in the Automotive industry
 Challenges and Innovation process in the Automotive Industry
 Q&A
2
Upcoming challenges for the players in the Automotive
industry
Geographical production
mix changing
CO2 regulatory stringent
and diversified by region
Emerging countries
closing their markets
Connected world and
connected car
Customer polarization
Car Sharing
3
Geographical production mix changing
Geographical production
mix changing
33,3%
22,7%
21,2%
20,5%
27,4%
29,4%
19,9%
14,7%
24,9%
10,1%
16,4%
EUROPE
6,4%
JAPAN/KOREA
NORTH AMERICA
GREATER CHINA
1,8%
2,1% 2,2%
13,3%
8,9%
5,1%
5,4%
4,6%
3,3%
MIDDLE EAST/AFRICA
SOUTH ASIA
SOUTH AMERICA
Source: IHS , 2014
4
Opportunity: catch the growing demand of the Chinese
customer
Projected China Market Evolution
Geographical production
mix changing
+12% CAGR
2009-2013
35
+7% CAGR
2014-2018
+6%
30
+9%
25
+7%
24,5
+59%
20,6
26,2
+4%
27,7
28,8
22,4
20
15
⊲Despite a slowdown in
growth, China forecasts a 7%
CAGR through 2018 and
remains the world’s largest
automotive market
⊲Year over year industry
increases through this period
are in excess of one million
units
12,9
10
5
0
Units
(M)
Source: Q4 2013 IHS
2009
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Includes Passenger Cars and Light
Commercial Vehicles
5
Risk: no rules
Geographical production
mix changing
Fury as China unveils
£14,000 copy of Range
Rover: British company
may take legal action
after little-known
manufacturer launches
brazen copy of offroader
• Chinese carmaker Land Wind
launched its £14,000 X7 at
a motor show
• It bore close resemblance
to the £40,000-plus Range
Rover Evoque
• Jaguar Land Rover may take
legal action to protect
its brand
6
Emerging countries increasing barriers to
stimulate the development of local industry
MEAN ANNUAL GDP
GROWTH 2014-2025
AUTOMOTIVE
AUTOMOTIVE
INDUSTRY
INDUSTRY
2014 units
CAGR 2014-2025
MOROCCO
3%
97k
5%
ALGERIA
3%
256k
4%
STIMOLOUS FOR
LOCAL PRODUCTION
• 0% VAT for first 5 years (local
VAT 20%)
• Free zones taxes advantages
Emerging countries
closing their
markets
• 0% VAT for first 5 years (local
VAT 19%)
• FTA with Egypt, Israel, Jordan,
Lebanon, Morocco*, Palestinian
Territories, Syria, Tunisia and
Turkey
SOUTH AFRICA
4%
NIGERIA
428k
5%
• High and Increasing level of
import duties.
• Incentives for localization with a
min 60% of local production
n.a.
• Local government has the aim
to increase local production
• 70% Duties on imported
vehicles recently introduced
• Low level of duties during the
first year of localization.
Increasing localization required
to maintain the advantages
54k
2%
Source: IHS , 2014-Internal data
(Estimated vol.
of imported
used vehicles in
2013: 400k)
SHARE ON TOTAL AFRICAN MARKET (2013):
81%
7
Risk: increasing investment for local production and
development of specific products
Local investments needed:
Africa need to industrialise
Emerging countries
closing their
markets
Product to be developed ad hoc for Africa?
8
Risk: is China taking over Africa?
9
People digital life is evolving, connected car is becoming
part of it
Connected world
and connected car
Source: Strategy Analytics 2013; Total head units sales
10
«Connected car» Key facts
100%
Connected world
and connected car
Global penetration of connected car
predicted by 2025
45%
(Source: SBD, Oct 2013)
New cars fitted with
smartphone integration
solutions by 2018
(Source: SBD, Oct 2013)
2020
2000
ELECTRONICS
22% → 40%
will be the main cost
component of the
vehicle
(Source: Strategy Analytics, Oct 2013)
11
Opportunity: the connected car will bring the young
generations back on a car?
The proportion of young people (<35 yrs) purchasing a new car
has dropped by almost an half in 10 years
45
29,30%
26,85%
25%
22,77%
20%
13,67%
15%
10%
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
40
30
25
36,1
10
45%
35,4
33,5
33,0
32,9
32,5
32,0
1999
0
2001
34,5
34,0 34,2 34,1
33,6
2009
2011
2013
46%
43%
42%
39%
40%
39%
38%
32,2
2005
2007
41%
33,6
2003
2005
43%
34,3
33,0
2001
2003
44%
34,8
33,9
5
47%
46%
33,5
17
15
35,5
34,0
21
20
36,0
34,5
Connected world
and connected car
36
Young customers are increasing their preference
towards used car (EU 5MM - 2002-2012)
36,5
35,0
40
35
2012
Variation of the age of purchase of first car
The trend 1999 – 2012 shows a clear «ageing»
Age of purchase of the first car NCBS 5MM
18÷35yrs. New car buyers
every 1,000 18÷35yrs. Inhabitants (EU-5MM)
30%
Young people purchasing a new car (vs. total young
population) has dropped by almost than a half in10 years
2007
2009
2011
2013
37%
2001
37%
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
12
Customers’ trend: increasing bi-polarity in mature markets
Passengers cars (EU 28+EFTA)
Customer
polarization
18%
70%
12%
2004
Source: 2004, 2013 actuals. For 2018: IHS, April 2014
25%
56%
19%
2013
30%
Premium Customer
42%
Traditional Mainstream Customer
28%
Budget Conscious Customer
2018
13
Global Carsharing opportunities in 2020
Carsharing market: vehicles and Members growth, Global, 2010-2020
Car Sharing
3,5 mn members
registered in 2013
Source: Frost&Sullivan , 2014
14
The situation in Italy
High Growth in the Italian carsharing: over 100k members in
Milan, car2go doubled their fleet with Rome
Car Sharing
Source: Frost&Sullivan , 2014
15
Opportunity: a market for new products?
Car Sharing: Electric vehicles
Car Sharing
Bollorè: Electric car sharing in
Paris
Hiriko: first test phases in
Barcelona, Berlin, Malmoe, San
Francisco, Hong Kong
iRoad: collaboration between
Toyota and the municipality of
Grenoble
Milan: EqSharing
Renault and the
municipality of Pamplona:
Car sharing Navarra
ZenCar Sharing:
project launched in
Bruxelles
16
Risk: is the car sharing reinforcing the trend toward car “commoditization”?
The car will be a “bother” that is better avoid, at least in the big cities?
17
Index
 Upcoming challenges for the players in the Automotive industry
 Challenges and Innovation process in the Automotive Industry
 Q&A
FCA - Innovation
- Mission: Build, Optimize & Manage a Globally Coordinated Portfolio of Innovative Activities
- Innovation Teams: Globally Deployed, Reporting to Regional Product Development Leaders
- Global Innovation Processes: Common Processes Coordinated across the Regions
(Innovation Portfolio Management, Strategic Agenda, Technology scouting, Partner Collaboration, Engineering Unit
Roadmaps, Public Funding, Training & Awareness etc… )
- Decoupled development: Regional Advanced Engineering Teams
NAFTA
APAC
EMEA
LATAM
19
EMEA: Vehicle R&I Network
….moving from a Research Center to a Global Research & Innovation network management.
We’ll be a large network which includes: Fiat/Chrysler Regions, Suppliers, Universities, public
and private center of competency as partners for Innovation.
Innovation Node:
Persistent Opportunity for…
FIAT/CHRYSLER
REGIONS
1. Value
2. Speed
Others Regions
NAFTA, LATAM, APAC
20
The Innovation Network
We have a large network which includes: Fiat/Chrysler regions, suppliers, universities,
and public and private centers of competency as partners for Innovation.
Innovation Node:
Persistent Opportunity for…
1.
2.
Value
Speed
FIAT/CHRYSLER
REGIONS
21
Innovation: New Principles and Process
INNOVATION REQUIRES OUR WHOLE TEAM
ALL DEPARTMENTS
WORKING TOGETHER
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Vehicle Engineering
PWT Engineering
Manufacturing
Product Design Office
Product Planning
Brand
Quality
Purchasing
Finance
HR
NEW IDEAS FROM
OUR KEY PARTNERS
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ALL EMPLOYEES!
SUPPLIERS
No Automotive suppliers
And More
COLLABORATION WITH
THE ENTIRE COMMUNITY
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Our Customers
Competition Customers
SUPPLIERS
Universities
Regional community
And More
Driving Forces motivating Vehicle Innovation Projects
Environmental Sustainability
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GHG (Green House Gases)
CAFE (Corporate Average Fuel Economy)
ZEV (Zero Emission Vehicles)
Noise Pollution Reduction
LCA & Vehicle End of Life
Green Materials
Social Sustainability
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Safety (passive, active, preventive)
User experiences (HMI, connectivity)
Traffic management
Mobility of impaired and elderly people
Other topics for Competitiveness
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Performances improvement
Functionality and New Features
Quality and Perceived Quality
Cost management
1. Weight reduction
2. Vehicle Efficiency and Off-cycle Credits
3. Vehicle Systems for Alternative Fuels
4. Integrated Safety & Driver assistance
5. User experience, HMI & Connectivity
6. Comfort & Convenience
7. Perceived Quality & Appearance
8. Cost Management & Standardization
All Programs are supported by ENABLING METHODOLOGIES
23
Driving Forces motivating Vehicle Innovation Projects
Environmental Sustainability
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 Conformable Storage; CNG, Multi Fuels,
Bio Fuels, ….
GHG (Green House Gases)
CAFE (Corporate Average Fuel Economy)
 Multi material Joining for Steel, Al, Mg,
ZEV (Zero Emission Vehicles)
Composites, ….
Noise Pollution Reduction
LCA & Vehicle End of Life
 Synthetic Jet, Super capacitors, ….
Green Materials
Social Sustainability
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Safety (passive, active, preventive)
User experiences (HMI, connectivity)
Traffic management
Mobility of impaired and elderly people
Other topics for Competitiveness
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Performances improvement
Functionality and New Features
Quality and Perceived Quality
Cost management
 Sensors Fusion, Driver monitoring and
distraction minimization, Perfect Voice
 Cooperative V2V, V2I
 Machine Intelligence
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Multi-physics simulation
Integrated human simulation
Multi objective performances optimization
Self learning methodologies
Manufacturing new technologies
All Programs are supported by ENABLING METHODOLOGIES
24
International Car CO2 Emission Standards
EU Regulatory Framework
• The legislation sets a binding target mass for CO2 emissions function of vehicle
average calculated on the total sold car per year (banking is not allowed)
• The regulation entered in force in 2012
• The target will decrease of 28 g/km in 2020
• Penalties will reach in 2019 95 Euro per g/km exceeding the target
2014  2019 CO2 Target = 175 + 0.093 × (M – Mo)
Regulation Phase-in on Volumes
M = mass of the vehicle (in running order= kerb weight + 75 kg)
M0 = 1706 average mass on EU market (in running order) –
updated every 3 year (2018, 2021,…)
The target in a calendar year is calculated as the average of the
CO2 specific emission of each new LCV registered in that
calendar year
2020  2024 CO2 Target = 147 + 0.096 x (M – Mo)
Multi Stage Vehicles (MSV) use rule of default added Mass according to EU 143/2013
For larger LCV (i.e. Ducato) it is more convenient to measure CO2 using the ”on Table”
roller dyno parameters
DRAFT
On Table Coast Down
For larger vehicles the
adoption of the “on
Table” coast down result
preferable to the road
coast down
In these cases the VDE
improvement is effective
only if related to
•
rolling resistance
•
brake drag
The aerodynamic
improvement has a
positive effect only in
real world use
DRAFT
27
Regulation – Addendum (2/2)
List of Eco Innovations Applications
ECO INNOVATIONS: it is possible
to get extra-credits up to 7
gCO2/km at fleet level if
improvements whose benefit can
not be measured with the
homologation procedure are
adopted (light, solar roof, …).
Each improvement has to
guarantee a saving of at least 1
gCO2/km per vehicle – It is the
equivalent of the off-cycle credits
SUPER CREDITS: None from 2020
– Supercredits are a multiplying
factor (up to 2015) to be applied to
vehicle with CO2 emission equal or
lower than 50 gCO2/km
DRAFT
28
Low CO2 add on Technologies
Controlled Fuel Pump
TechC
Regulation
Interpretation
Electronic Thermostat
Variable displacement Oil
pump
Spoiler Aero
Waste Heat
Recovery
TechE
TechA
Smart Alternator
TechB
Engine Stop Start
Underbody
ESS
Aero
Zero Drag
Brake
Active Grille
Shutters Aero
Air sealing Aero
Coolant
Stopping
Valve
TechD
Flush caps Aero
Height reduction
Aero
ECO
Tire pressure
Wheel Arches Aero
DRAFT
29
Electrification
Hybridization focused on engine assistance.
Normally there is no additional content offer
to the customer other than fuel economy
MICROHYBRID
MILD
HYBRID
Hybridization targeted to electric propulsion.
Normally it could offer additional contents to the
customers (E-FEATURES)
FULL
HYBRID
ELECTRIC
VEHICLE
PLUG IN
HYBRID
CONVENTIONAL ENGINE POWER
“EXTENDED START-STOP SYSTEM“
ENERGY RECOVERY (REGENERATIVE BRAKING)
E-MOTOR ASSIST ENGINE (EG. BOOSTING)
E-LAUNCH: VEHICLE START MOVING IN ELECTRIC
ELECTRIC DRIVE: VEHICLE COULD MOVE IN ELECTRIC
VEHICLE COULD BE CHARGED
FROM GRID (I.E. IT HAS A SOCKET)
BEV
RANGE EXTENDER
DRAFT
Eco Friendly Traction
Hybrid Traction
Ducato Metano
Eco Friendly Traction
Inner City
Camping
Cost of the Improvements - «Bang for the Buck»
VDE improvement
On Board Energy Management
Powertrain Technologies
Hybrids
DRAFT
WEIGHT REDUCTION STRATEGY
Steel + AHSS (NEW GENERATION)
Aluminum
Magnesium
Composite
2017 - STEP 1
MULTIMETAL
Subsystem/component
Re-engineering
“material substitution”
More AHSS, aluminum and Magnesium
TODAY
2017+ - STEP 2
MULTIMATERIAL
“Architecture
Re-engineering
and optimization”
AHSS, Aluminum,
Magnesium and composite
BATTERY TECHNOLOGY:
THE PROBLEM OF SPECIFIC ENERGY
Average electric range with
100 kg of battery cells
(urban cycle – 1100 kg)
600
Specific Energy [Wh/kg]
500
Gasoline has a chemical specific energy of 12.200 Wh/kg
delivering ~ 2.200 mechanical Wh/kg (NEDC Cycle)
400 km
320 km
400
240 km
300
200
NiMeH
100
0
1970
160 km
Li-ioni
Co
Li-Mn2O4
80 km
NiCd
Pb
Today
100 km
Li-ions
phosphate
1990
2010
2030
2050
Years
Today – on the average – every 100kg of battery cells allow 100km range
35
Feature Technology Overview
Active Safety
Lane Departure-Warning Plus
A E B (city)
A E B (inter-urban)
Lane Keep Assist
Traffic Jam Assistance
Control Assistance
Adaptive Cruise Control
Awareness
Blind Spot Monitoring
Rear Cross Path Detection
Forward Collision Warning
36
Vehicle Automation Scenarios
EVOLUTION
on the ground / with drivers
underground / driverless
REVOLUTION
on the ground / driverless
37
Car Industry Hardware Trend
Panasonic Rotary Control
Rear Projection with
Physical Controls
OLED Curved Screen
Transparent Displays
for Super Windscreens
Car Industry Interface Trend
Upgradeable Screen and Faceplate
Scalable Interface
Audi Smart Display
The dockable automotive grade tablet
Car Industry Layout Trend
Premium Experience
Driver Focus Experience
Volvo Estate (12’’ CLUSTER + 10’’ Center Stack)
Audi Sport quattro (12’’ CLUSTER)
Heads Up Display
Car Industry Interaction Trend
Biometrics Devices
Intelligence Predictive Engine
Volvo Driver Sensors
Mercedes Benz
Voice, gestures,
proximity, eye tracking
Intelligence Driving Agent
Flexible Interface
Audi Electronic Research Lab,
MIT Personal Robots, Senseable
Cities Group
Cadillac CUE
Consumer Trend Impact
Product Service System
Holistic Apple Experience
3D Printing
Intelligence
Internet of Things
Mercedes – Benz Integrade NEST
Style impact on Technology
Opel Monza
Cadillac Elmiraj
Freeform interface, clean iconic shapes and reduced number of physical controls
Virtual featuring physical,
refined style and ergonomics
Nissan Resonance
Tesla Model X
Physical featuring virtual,
Functionality, and compaction
KIA GT Cross
Audi TT
PRODUCT FLEXIBILITY
SPECIALTIES
MOBILITY NEEDS
OPPORTUNITIES
THE FUTURE
GLOBAL COMPANY & MARKET
IT PARADIGM
2025…no flying cars
EXTREME SIMULATION
SUSTAINABLE PRODUCTS
49