Financial Analysis Model

Transcription

EC-ASEAN COGEN Programme Phase III
Proven, Clean & Efficient Biomass, Coal, Gas Cogeneration
COGEN 3
Technical – Financial Analysis Model
2004 Cogeneration Week in Indonesia
19 May 2004, Dusit Hotel, Balikpapan
Thomas Hernoe
Environmental Expert
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Technical – Financial Analysis (TFA) model
• Calculation model for technical,
financial & environmental analysis of
cogeneration projects
• Simple database for guidance:
Cogeneration system efficiencies, fuel
data, national economic data etc.
• Excel standard spreadsheet:
Transparent & open model structure
• Developed by COGEN 3.
• Available for all & free
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Facilitation of cogeneration project development:
Services to project developers & end-users
Technical / Financial / Environmental Analysis
Advice on technology selection & investment decissions
Financial packaging
Announcement of identified cogeneration projects in ASEAN
Tools for development & evaluation of cogeneration projects
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•
Technical – Financial Analysis model (ver. 2) for free distribution
•
Several advanced tools for advisory services
Facilitation of cogeneration project development:
Services to project developers & end-users
Technical / Financial / Environmental Analysis
TFA model used
by COGEN 3
Advice on technology selection & investment decissions
Financial packaging
Announcement of identified cogeneration projects in ASEAN
Tools for development & evaluation of cogeneration projects
4
•
Technical – Financial Analysis model (ver. 2) for free distribution
•
Several advanced tools for advisory services
TFA model used
by stakeholders
Project Development & TFA
Development of cogeneration project
Technical Financial
Analysis model
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Construction
Operation
TFA uses & benefits
TFA for calculations for cogeneration projects of:
• Financial performance (IRR, NPV, pay back time)
• Green House Gas emission (reduction of CO2 eq. emission)
TFA facilitates:
• Consistency of energy uses
• Comparison with electricity purchase & boiler for steam/hot water
TFA basic principles:
• Modelling of energy streams & cash flows on yearly basis
• Black box approach to cogeneration systems
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TFA limitations & assumptions
Limitations in use for detailed technical design due to:
• Modelling of energy streams & cash flows on yearly basis
• Black box approach to cogeneration systems
Assumptions:
• Generation of electricity and steam/hot water correspond with
requirements in facility and export obligations
• Energy streams & unit costs constant in lifetime
• All investments are in construction period
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TFA user requirements
TFA requires knowledge of:
• Energy streams in energy plants
• Basic financing principles
• Use of Excel (or similar spreadsheet programme)
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TFA model overview (1)
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TFA model overview (2)
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TFA example
Rice husk fired cogeneration project
Planned steam turbine and boiler cogeneration plant
Planned size of steam turbine
No. of operating hours
Assumed investment
Rice husk price (transport and handling)
3
5,000
1,500
1,000
MW
electric
hours/year
EURO/kW electric
Baht/Ton
Current supply of electricty from grid.
Current electricty purchase
Purchase rate electricity
13,500 MWh/year
3.0 Baht/kWh
Current supply of steam from diesel boiler.
Current steam consumption (2 bar) for drying of rice paddy
Purchase rate diesel oil for steam boiler
Operating cost current diesel boiler per year
The rice husk is burned in open burning today.
No export of electricity or thermal energy.
Current boiler will be kept as backup boiler.
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8.3
5,000
10,000
800,000
Ton / hour
hours/year
Baht/Ton
Baht
Rice husk fired cogeneration project
Planned steam turbine and boiler cogeneration plant
Planned size of steam turbine
Assumed investment
Rice husk price (transport and handling)
3
5,000
1,500
1,000
MW electric
hours/year
EURO/kW electric
Baht/Ton
Current supply of electricty from grid.
Current electricty purchase
Purchase rate electricity
13,500 MWh/year
3.0 Baht/kWh
Current supply of steam from diesel boiler.
Current steam consumption (2 bar) for drying of rice paddy
Purchase rate diesel oil for steam boiler
Operating cost current diesel boiler per year
The rice husk is burned in open burning today.
No export of electricity or thermal energy.
Current boiler will be kept as backup boiler.
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8.3
5,000
10,000
800,000
Ton / hour
hours/year
Baht/Ton
Baht
PROJECT IDENTIFICATION
Company:
Rice husk Cogeneration
Case:
Base case
Project description:
Calculation done by: COGEN 3
Other identification:
SUMMARY FINANCIAL RESULTS
Pre-tax Project IRR
20.0%
Pre-tax project nominal Internal Rate of Return (IRR)
Pre-tax Project NPV
189,235 ('000) Baht
3,895 ('000) EURO
Pre-tax Net Present Value (NPV)
Post-tax Project IRR
20.0%
Post-tax nominal project Internal Rate of Return (IRR)
Post-tax Project NPV
189,235 ('000) Baht
3,895 ('000) EURO
Post-tax Net Present Value (NPV)
Post-tax Equity IRR
20.0%
Post-tax nominal equity Internal Rate of Return (IRR)
Discounted payback time
7.1 Years
Simple payback time
4.8 Years
Total investment costs (incl. contingency)
Financial project lifetime
13
233,032 ('000) Baht
20 Years
4,796 ('000) EURO
Annual revenue, cost and investment
('000) Currency primary
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
-50,000
-100,000
Net investment
-150,000
Total revenues of operation & avoided costs
Total costs of operation
-200,000
-1
0
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Operating year
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Discounted cumulative cash flow
250,000
('000) Currency primary
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200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
-50,000
-100,000
-150,000
-200,000
-250,000
-1
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0
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Operating year
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TFA model principles
T
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Conventional energy supply
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Cogeneration energy supply
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TFA model principles
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Energy requirements (1)
Design of cogeneration plant & financial performance depends on:
• Energy requirements: how much and when
• How cogeneration plant meet requirements
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Energy requirements (2)
Should be clarified:
• Electricity requirements
• Electricity export
• Thermal energy requirements
• Cooling requirements
Possible ways to define the energy requirements:
• Energy audit done by consultant
• Own mapping and prediction
Should be considered:
• Possible savings, process changes, process integration etc.
• Future energy requirements
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Comparison with alternatives
Current supply (reference situation / baseline):
Boiler with low efficiency and electricity from grid
Alternative 1:
New boiler with high efficiency and electricity from grid covering host facility
energy use
Alternative 2:
Cogeneration covering host facility energy use
Alternative 3:
Cogeneration covering host facility energy use and export
Alternative 4:
Cogeneration, supplementary supply of electricity and supplementary boiler
covering host facility energy use and export
Systematic approach needed to find optimal solution!
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Baseline comparison (1)
Baseline is current situation. Can reflect 3 aspects:
Change of behaviour
Energy needs before and after implementation of cogeneration can be different
Cogeneration project can be mean to cover future energy needs
Change of fuel
Fuels have very different cost and emissions factors
Change of technology
The higher overall efficiency for cogeneration reduces costs and environmental impact
If baseline is current situation:
• Shows the actual change in environmental impact
• Does not cover green field projects
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Baseline comparison (2)
Different baseline: Hypothetical calculation of alternative energy supply:
Same energy services & same fuel as the cogeneration project
Baseline will show the benefit of changing conversion technology
Assumes fuel used in cogeneration system also would be chosen for thermal energy generation: Selection
of fuel is not dependant on the technology applied, but on fuel market conditions
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Interaction TFA model - user
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TFA Green House Gas calculations
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Green House Gas emission change
Change in emission =
GHG emission cogeneration supply of electricity & thermal energy
–
GHG emission baseline supply of electricity & thermal energy`
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CO2 equivalent emissions
Green Houses Gases:
• Carbon Dioxide CO2
• Methane CH4
• Nitrous Oxide N2O
Carbon Dioxide equivalent emission =
Carbon Dioxide +
Methane Carbon Dioxide eq. +
Nitrous Oxide Carbon Dioxide eq.
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New in TFA version 2
TFA model can be used in 2 different ways:
• Model for financial calculations (.... Yearly amount / .... Lump sum). Data inputs
are yearly cash flows
• Model for energy stream calculations and financial calculation (.... Facilitation):
Data inputs are amounts of electricity and thermal energy needed, type and size of
cogeneration plant, investment details etc.
4 new sheets has been added:
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•
•
•
Income sheet
Balance sheet
Sensitivity analysis
Graphical presentation of energy streams
TFA model can now handle:
•
•
•
•
•
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Sensitivity analysis
Taxation
Depreciation
Debt service
Corporate projections for cogeneration plant in a special purpose company
TFA model summary
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For more information,
please visit COGEN 3 Website at:
http://www.cogen3.net
Thank You !
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Financial Analysis Model

Transcription

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