Timer Digest - wall street sentiment

October 28, 2013
October 28, 2013
Timer Digest
www.timerdigest.com
ISSUE 573
Mark Young
Wall Street Sentiment
Copyright © 2013, Timer Digest. All Rights Reserved.
Timer Digest
(Page Down)
October 28, 2013
2
S&P: 1759.77
TOP TEN TIMERS
DJIA: 15,570.28
ONE YEAR - FROM: 10/25/2012 TO: 10/25/2013
1 DAVID
VOMUND
.
VIS Alert
2 *MARVIN APPEL
Systems & Forecasts
3 *DAN SULLIVAN
The Chartist
4 *STEPHEN LEEB
The Complete Investor
5 *MARK YOUNG
Wall St. Sentiment
6 *KIRK LINDSTROM
Kirk Lindstrom’s Investment Ltr
7 *BERNIE SCHAEFFER
Schaeffer’s Daily Bulletin
8 *JAMES STACK
Investech Research
9 BILL MERIDIAN
Cycles Research
10 GARY HARLOFF
The Intelligent Fund Investor
T.D.CONSENSUS
S&P 500
CURRENT SINCE
Bull
08/22/2013
INDEX
128.84
Bull
08/17/2012
124.54
Bull
08/10/2012
124.54
Bull
05/03/2012
124.54
Bull
10/21/2011
124.54
Bull
05/17/2011
124.54
Bull
09/25/2009
124.54
Bull
05/13/2008
124.54
Bull
11/29/2012
124.02
Bull
03/22/2013
121.49
Bull
12/31/2012
116.62
124.54
*Tied.
6 Months
From: 04/25/2013 To: 10/25/2013
DAVIDVOMUND
Bull
08/22/2013
VIS Alert
HARRYSCHILLER
Neutral
10/16/2013
The Short Term Consensus Hotline
BARRY ROSEN
Bull
10/24/2013
Fortucast Alternative Investment
DAN TUROV
Bull
09/23/2013
Turov on Timing
*GARYHARLOFF
Bull
03/22/2013
The Intelligent Fund Investor
*BILLMERIDIAN
Bull
11/29/2012
Cycles Research
*MARVIN APPEL
Bull
08/17/2012
Systems & Forecasts
*DAN SULLIVAN
Bull
08/10/2012
The Chartist
*STEPHENLEEB
Bull
05/03/2012
The Complete Investor
*MARKYOUNG
Bull
10/21/2011
Wall St. Sentiment
T.D.CONSENSUS
Bull
12/31/2012
S&P 500
*Tied with others not listed due to limited space.
NOTE: A regular feature of TIMER DIGEST is a
report of the current opinion of various forecasters and
an analysis of how accurate their forecasts have been
over the most recent 52-week period (104 weeks for
Long Term Timers). In every instance, we have tried to
be as fair as possible in the comparisons, although
reliability of the information given cannot be
guaranteed. Because of mail delays, it is possible that
the current opinion may have changed before press
time.
3 Months
114.13
111.94
111.77
111.34
111.02
111.02
111.02
111.02
111.02
111.02
111.02
111.02
From: 07/25/2013 to: 10/25/2013
DAVIDVOMUND
Bull
08/22/2013
VIS Alert
DAN TUROV
Bull
09/23/2013
Turov on Timing
HARRYSCHILLER
Neutral
10/16/2013
The Short Term Consensus Hotline
TIMORD
Neutral
10/17/2013
The Ord Oracle
*GLENNNEELY
Bull
07/15/2013
NEoWave
*JAMES DINES
Bull
07/08/2013
The Dines Letter
*GARYHARLOFF
Bull
03/22/2013
The Intelligent Fund Investor
*BILLMERIDIAN
Bull
11/29/2012
Cycles Research
*MARVIN APPEL
Bull
08/17/2012
Systems & Forecasts
*DAN SULLIVAN
Bull
08/10/2012
The Chartist
T.D.CONSENSUS
Bull
12/31/2012
S&P 500
*Tied with others not listed due to limited space.
While all the services rated provide buy and sell
signals, some do not recommend short selling.
However, for purposes of illustration only, the
Performance Index takes into account the gain and loss
on sell signals as well as buy signals. Some of these
forecasts are designed to identify short term market
moves while others are long term in nature. The Index
measures the efficiency of the services over a 52-week
period in the same manner for all. The Long Term
Timers are measured over 104 weeks using their Long
Timer Digest
108.30
107.23
105.13
104.39
104.11
104.11
104.11
104.11
104.11
104.11
104.11
104.11
Term models.
The Performance Index is calculated by
considering each advisor and the S&P 500 Index to be
equal to 100.00 at the beginning of the period. Timing
signals assume either long or short positions in the S&P
500. This study is hypothetical and is for the purpose of
comparison only.. Past results are not an indication of
future results. For more information call or write:
TIMER DIGEST, P.O. Box 1688, Greenwich, CT.
06836 -1688
(203) 629-3503
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3
October 28, 2013
S
Summary and Outlook
ince the October 7 issue, the market has avoided seasonal weakness
typically associated with October.
Month-to-date the S&P 500 index has
gained 4.65%, on a price basis. The
year-to-date 2013 performance stands
at +23.39% (at 9/30/2013). Fundamentally, economic reports were delayed by
the partial Federal Gov’t shutdown. The
September Employment Report fell
short of consensus estimates in terms
of job creation, though August’s payroll number was revised upward to a
still anemic level. And, the Unemployment rate declined; again, largely the
result of contraction in the labor pool
as discouraged workers exit the labor
force. The market’s response continues to be positive, since the consequence has been to perpetuate Fed liquidity. September data for Durable
Goods were the beneficiary of a strong
aircraft orders figure. October manufacturing statistics were mixed with the
Empire State Manufacturing Survey
below expectations, while the Philadelphia Fed Survey exceeded estimates. A
new orders component increased, as
well. Consumer Sentiment for October declined month-over-month; but
remained at a comparatively high level
by historical standards.
Minutes from the September 17 18 FOMC Meeting announcement revealed a continuing debate over the decision to reduce the level of Fed intervention. Some voiced concern that a
failure to taper activity would negatively
impact the Fed’s credibility and future
inflation. Others remained focused on
the need to address sluggish job growth.
Interestingly, a recent article in the print
media suggested that inflation may be
good for economic growth; a throwback of sorts to the late 1970s view.
Internationally, the Middle East situation remains potentially volatile with
new unrest in Egypt and diplomatic discontent from Saudi Arabia threatening
to complicate matters further.
Technically, short-term conditions
are once again extended; and sentiment
has deteriorated. However, momentum
indicators are constructive; and the market is within days of a new seasonally
favorable period.
Currently, the Top Ten Consen- remain supportive.
sus is Bullish with 10 Bulls.
Bill Meridian of Cycles Research
David Vomund of VIS Alert is is on a November 29, 2012 Buy sigon an August 22, Buy signal. How- nal. He expects a period of interim
ever, he said the market remains ex- weakness to be followed by further gains
tended on a short-term basis as reflected in the seasonally strong months of November and December.
by his unconfirmed AIQ signal.
Marvin Appel of Systems &
Forecasts is on an August 17, 2012
Buy signal. He said a pullback by
major indices to their respective 20-day
moving averages may present another
buying opportunity.
Dan Sullivan of The Chartist is
on a August 10, 2012 Buy signal. He
said the daily advance/decline line has
confirmed the recent highs; and the Fed
is unlikely to reduce the pace of liquidity provision.
Stephen Leeb of The Complete
Investor is on a May 3, 2012 Buy signal. He said oil prices have been in a
generally flat range and remain below
the threshold that would trigger increased risk for stocks.
Gary Harloff of The Intelligent
Fund Investor is on a March 22, Buy
signal. His latest sector recommendations included exposure to Internet,
Biotech, and Technology stocks.
The comments which follow are
provided in response to subscriber requests that previous “Timers of the
Year” be monitored on a continuing
basis, despite their absence from the
current rankings.
George Dagnino of Peter Dag
Portfolio Strategy is Bullish. He said
his cycle indicator is rising as the market enters a period of very favorable
seasonality.
Mark Leibovit of VRTrader.com
is Bullish. He retains higher targets for
Mark Young of Wall St. Senti- the S&P 500 index, notwithstanding the
ment is on an October 21, 2011 Buy potential for volatility around the Octosignal. However, he expressed some ber 29 - 30 FOMC meeting.
near-term caution with his proprietary
Howard Winell of The Winell
momentum indicator negative and senReport is Bearish. He has forecast
timent reading bearish.
another decline/rally sequence that may
Kirk Lindstrom of Kirk reveal more evidence from his supply/
Lindstrom’s Investment Letter is on demand data about the market’s residual
a May 17, 2011 Buy signal. He sug- upside potential.
gested that investors will continue to
Steven Hochberg and Pete
favor the prospective returns from equities over those of competing finan- Kendall of The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast are Bearish. “If the Dow
cial assets.
makes a new high, it should be within
Bernie Schaeffer of Schaeffer’s the context of a fifth wave, which is an
Daily Bulletin is on a September 25, ending wave.”
2009 Buy signal. He suggested the
Please check the Hotline for the
rising trend remains intact as the market turns its focus to corporate earn- latest updates. The Hotline is updated
ings reports and other fundamental fac- every Wednesday and Saturday by
7:00 p.m. E.T., with special updates
tors.
as necessary.
James Stack of Investech Research is on a May 13, 2008 Buy signal. He said breadth and leadership inNext Issue to be posted
dicators have improved over the past
week or so, while economic conditions
November 18, 2013
Timer Digest
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4
October 28, 2013
Top Five Bond Timers
Current
Bull
Since
Index
10/04/2013 114.36
TIM WOOD
Cycles News & Views
HOLLYHOOPER
Bull
09/18/2013
The Mutual Fund Strategist
IKEIOSSIF
Neutral 09/23/2013
Marketviews.tv
*BERNIESCHAEFFER
Bear
05/07/2012
Schaeffer’s Daily Bulletin
*ARCH CRAWFORD
Bear
03/16/2012
Crawford Perspectives
T.D.CONSENSUS
Neutral 10/18/2013
T-BOND INDEX
*Tied with others not listed due to limited space.
From: 10/25/2012 To: 10/25/2013
111.01
110.16
108.19
108.19
101.33
91.81
Top Five Gold Timers
DAVIDLUCIANO
Bull
10/21/2013
Market Brief
TOMO’BRIEN
Bull
07/11/2013
Market Insights
DOUGLAS JIMERSON
Neutral 10/11/2013
National Trendlines
IKEIOSSIF
Bear
06/19/2013
Marketviews.tv
*STAN HARLEY
Bear
10/07/2011
The Harley Market Letter
T.D.CONSENSUS
Neutral 10/23/2013
CMXGOLDINDEX
*Tied with others not listed due to limited space.
143.13
132.31
Tim Wood is Bullish. He said another intermediate-term
cycle low may have been established in the second half of September unless proprietary chart support is violated.
Holly Hooper is Bullish. Her model for US Bond Funds
remains favorable with muted economic growth unlikely to
change the Federal Reserve’s current policy.
Ike Iossif is Neutral. He expects the bond market to
hold up for 5 - 10 more trading days at which time he may
have the evidence to determine the next move of substance.
COMEX GOLD 1353.20
Gold, basis the December 2013 future, is attempting to
complete a retest of the June low and reverse a nearly one-year
decline. Fundamentally, there are several categories of uncertainty to support further gains. Technically, a rally above $1400
may confirm a change in trend. Support for the December
contract is $1310, then $1270 - $1280, and $1240 - $1260.
Resistance is $1380, $1400 - $1420, and $1450 - $1460.
The Consensus is currently Neutral.
126.04
122.54
121.12
113.05
78.88
From: 10/25/2012 To: 10/25/2013
HITESH SHAH
Bull
Peak Performance Advisors
*BERNIE SCHAEFFER
Bull
Schaeffer’s Daily Bulletin
*MARVIN APPEL
Bull
Systems & Forecasts
*KIRK LINDSTROM
Bull
Kirk Lindstrom’s Investment Letter
*JAMES STACK
Bull
Investech Research
*KEITH MOORED
Bull
Market Forecast
*MARK YOUNG
Bull
Wall St. Sentiment
*DAVID LUCIANO
Bull
Market Brief
*STEVE TODD
Bull
The Todd Market Forecast
*MANFRED ZIMMEL
Bull
Amanita Market Forecasting
T.D.CONSENSUS
Bull
S&P 500
T-BOND INDEX 134.10
The bond market, basis the December 2013 T-Bond future, has advanced from a late August/early September doublebottom. Fundamentally, Fed liquidity and slow economic
growth remain important. Technically, bonds have traced out
a constructive chart pattern, short-term. Support for the December future is now 133 - 134, then 131, and 129. Resistance is now 136 - 138, then 140, and 142.
The Consensus is currently Neutral.
10/23/2012
143.78
07/02/2009
143.18
06/03/2009
143.18
03/03/2009
143.18
05/13/2008
143.18
09/18/2007
143.18
08/03/2007
143.18
06/21/2007
143.18
03/05/2007
143.18
12/14/2006
143.18
09/28/2011
143.18
143.18
David Luciano is Bullish. He said the September/October decline by gold mining stocks established conditions for a
market low and new uptrend.
Tom O’Brien is Bullish. He suggested that gold has
completed its transition; and is generating some higher targets
within a new intermediate-term advance.
Douglas Jimerson is Neutral. He noted improvement
in his model as a reason to upgrade his signal and recommend
that half of funds allocated to gold be invested.
S&P 500 INDEX 1759.77
Top Ten Long Term Timers
In the recent two-year period, the S&P 500 retested its
August 2011 lows (1101) again in early October (1075); rallied
to early April 2012 highs; corrected to an early June low and
recovered to 1465; sold off to 1350 in mid-November; rallied
to 1687 in May 2013, then declined and rallied to the August 2
high of 1709, subsequently exceeded on September 18 (1726).
The market may need to consolidate before the next manufactured political crisis against an improving seasonal background.
Currently, The Long Term Consensus is Bullish.
Hitesh Shah is Bullish. The composite of his proprietary indicators remains in a positive configuration.
Bernie Schaeffer is Bullish. He suggested the market’s
underlying technical condition is firm, even though still subject
to periods of short-term volatility.
Marvin Appel is Bullish. He continues to be encouraged by the market’s ability to absorb news-related uncertainty
just as seasonality is about to turn strongly favorable.
* Tied with others not listed due to limited space.
From: 10/25/2011 To: 10/25/2013
Timer Digest
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5
Fe
a
Ad ture
vis d
or
October 28, 2013
Wall Street Sentiment
ark Steward Young, publisher of the addition to his technical analysis.
Wall Street Sentiment Newsletters It was around this time that Carl Swenlin
asked Mr. Young to take over the
and founder of Traders-Talk.com
administration of what is now wellwas brought into the investment
business, quite literally on the shoulders known as the Wall Street Sentiment
Survey (which is still published at
of his father. At the young age of five,
his father, Robert Young, a partner in a WallStreetSentiment.com and
DecisionPoint.com). At the time, Mr.
regional brokerage firm, would often
Swenlin said, “I don’t know anyone else
hoist him into the office where he first
learned to read the now antiquated ticker- who can wring so much value out of
sentiment data.” Using his survey data
tape. This planted the seeds of what
would inevitably grow into an insatiable alone, Mr. Young was able to make
interest in trading and the mechanics of uncannily accurate, day-by-day
predictions for the week ahead. He then
markets.
piled on three more proprietary, staticAlthough a fascination with market pool surveys, and built a successful
forces played a key role in Mr. Young’s stand-alone trading model.
original focus on Economics at
Mr. Young then followed up by
Northwestern University, it was his
taking over the reins of the longest
interest in trading that lured him away
from the more mundane summer jobs and running online technical analysis
into trading his own account. A summer community, The Fearless Forecasters,
of active options trading blossomed Mr. and giving them a home at TradersYoung’s low five-figure trading account Talk.com, a diverse online community
for traders and investors. These active
into ample six-figure expense account,
message boards at Traders-Talk.com
cementing his fate.
also provided an opportunity to perform
During this time, Mr. Young studied daily polls of (and for) members. True to
the work of his father’s close friend, the form, from the poll data and site activity,
Mr. Young was able to develop several
legendary Sedge Coppock, as well as
such luminaries as Stan Weinstein, Ben new sentiment indicators, some with
prodigious predictive power. Some may
Garside, and others, in a search for
already be familiar with his T-4 turn
consistent trading results. After
graduation, Mr. Young became a stock indicator as well as the Fully Long/Fully
Short indicator of trader sentiment. Both
broker with Legg Mason, where he
learned the utility—and limitations— of indicators have been tremendously
valuable in difficult market
value investing.
environments.
After the Crash of 1987, the
Because of the dynamism of modern
shortcomings of fundamental analysis
became clear, and his skills with technical equity markets, as well as the everchanging types of investors dominating
analysis and market timing began
differing size segments of the stock
opening doors. In 1991, he became a
registered investment advisor and started market landscape, Mr. Young
understood that it was imperative to
his own firm. In addition to managing
constantly scrutinize and weigh the
money for clients, Mr. Young would
value of different measures of
occasionally share his unique market
analysis with his friends and colleagues speculative and investor sentiment, and
if none exist for an important investor
in the industry. When a fellow
professional money manager offered him group, to create them himself.
a substantial sum to provide this analysis In addition to his message board
on a regular basis, a new business wing sentiment indicators, Mr. Young
developed the NAAIM Delta Tool,
was added; independent research.
In the early 1990’s, as online pportunities derived from the National Association of
became evident to many forward-thinking Active Investment Managers weekly
traders and investors, Mr. Young became survey data. Also, Mr. Young is creator
of the Wall St. Sentiment Options
a prominent online contributor and
Oscillator indicator, derived from dollarcommentator, which provided him a
weighted put call data.
unique opportunity to track and study
investor psychology, a very promising
M
Timer Digest
It has been said that what everyone
already knows isn’t worth knowing. Mark
Young’s primary goal is to provide
sophisticated traders with a window into
investor psychology that no one else has—
to give his subscribers an edge and the
confidence get and stay on the right side of
the stock market. Expert traders will tell you
that 90% of trading success is related to
market psychology. The information
provided in the Wall Street Sentiment
publications gives a current & accurate read
of not only public sentiment, but the
attitudes of the types of people who
actually move the markets.
SERVICES & SUBSCRIPTION
INFORMATION:
Wall Street Sentiment Weekend Report
The Wall Street Sentiment Weekend Report
is a two-part basic-level weekly newsletter
for investors and less active traders
providing a rundown of all relevant
sentiment sectors as well as the
intermediate and long-term technical
condition of the stock market.
Also includes the Wall St. Sentiment
Investors Letter, a publication for those
who do not wish to actively trade markets
but still wish to maximize performance and
minimize risk over the long haul.
Price: $99 per year
Wall Street Sentiment Daily
Wall Street Sentiment Daily provides
analysis of the very latest from our
proprietary Options Oscillator, Fully Long/
Fully Short indicator, as well as all relevant
sentiment indicators as they become
available, be they surveys, polls options
data, or technical indicators that have
sentiment implications, like our “Best Fade”
indicator. 3 trading models are included in
this daily letter.
Price: $39.99 month, $399 per year
Wall Street Sentiment Premium Service
The wall Street Sentiment Premium Service
provides all of the above, PLUS at least two
daily updates with the most current
sentiment data, as well as specific trade
ideas for day traders of the S&P emini
futures, derived from our best sentiment
indicators as well as technical analysis.
For more information or to request a free
trial, go to www.WallStreetSentiment.com
or call 859-393-3335 or 818-Markets.
(Page Down)
October 28, 2013
6
C.A.S.P.E.R. Index of Previously Recommended Stocks
STOCK
RECOMMENDED CURR. CASP.
DATE
PRICE PRICE INDEX
A O Smith Corporation
Abbott Laboratories
Actavis Inc.
Alleghany Corp
Allegheny Technologies
Alliance Data
Alliance Resource Part
Allstate Corporation
Amerco
American Fncl Grp Hld
Amphenol Corp
Analog Devices Inc
AON PLC
Aqua America Inc
Arrow Electronics Inc
Automatic Data Process
Avx Corp
Beam Inc.
Bemis Co Inc
Black Hills Corp
BlackRock World Invest
Broadridge Fin Sol
Brocade Communications
C.R. Bard Inc
Cabot Corp
CBOE Holdings Inc.
Charles River Labs Int
Cigna Corp
Cirrus Logic Inc
Clorox Co
Comcast Corp Cl A
Comerica Inc
Conagra Foods
ConocoPhillips
Costco Wholesale Corp
Covanta Holding Corp
Crown Holdings Inc
Danaher Corp
Delphi Auto.
Dentsply Internat Inc
Dover Corp
Dresser-Rand Group Inc
Dst Systems Inc
Eastman Chemical Co
Echostar Corp.
Ecolab Inc
Enterprise Products Pa
Everest Re Group Ltd.
Extra Space Storage In
Fedex Corp
Fiserv Inc
Flight Safety Tech
Forest Laboratories In
Franklin Electric Co I
Generac Hldgs
General Dynamics Corp
General Dynamics Corp
Glatfelter
Global Pmts Inc
Goodyear Tire&Rubber C
Hess Corp
Home Depot Inc
Honeywell Internationa
Idex Corp
Johnson & Johnson
Kansas City Southern
Kapstone Paper
Kellogg Co
Kimberly Clark Corp
Kla-Tencor Corp
Life Tech Corp.
01/13/12
12/30/11
07/13/12
05/28/10
09/13/13
03/09/12
08/23/13
06/22/12
08/24/12
10/07/11
04/21/11
11/18/11
08/03/12
05/11/12
10/04/13
10/05/07
05/31/13
08/02/13
10/26/12
08/24/12
08/23/13
04/19/13
08/02/13
06/22/12
10/04/13
09/16/11
07/12/13
10/05/12
09/13/13
03/30/12
05/07/10
12/28/12
04/21/11
08/25/06
06/01/01
07/13/12
04/19/13
01/04/08
11/16/12
08/02/13
08/04/95
08/02/13
07/13/12
08/03/12
10/05/12
04/18/08
05/28/10
03/09/12
06/24/08
10/04/13
08/20/10
09/16/11
03/09/12
03/05/10
08/20/10
08/21/92
05/10/13
03/11/11
08/23/13
09/13/13
07/12/13
08/20/09
01/11/13
01/11/13
08/25/06
08/03/12
10/07/11
02/15/13
06/01/12
03/08/13
12/28/12
42.22
50.75
56.23
37.25
76.76
148.15
292.10
402.69
28.63
33.75
122.90
234.47
78.23
76.25
34.08
53.35
97.48
205.67
31.94
55.65
54.80
81.27
35.30
46.75
50.49
77.54
22.88
25.15
48.73
47.43
47.97
75.51
11.98
13.88
65.77
68.65
33.09
40.00
33.42
52.00
31.41
32.87
24.51
34.88
6.94
7.83
104.43
134.55
43.33
46.19
27.29
50.64
43.99
49.43
48.85
73.90
22.16
25.04
68.75
88.64
18.36
48.17
30.34
42.72
24.12
31.72
68.90
74.06
38.78
116.44
17.01
17.27
41.08
41.40
43.87 a 72.11
32.14
58.03
42.97
45.00
19.59 a 90.95
61.84
61.02
55.00
84.14
53.17
77.94
29.72
47.93
47.93
105.18
33.60
64.48
91.30
150.94
15.77
48.65
114.73
132.06
51.26
106.30
29.10
109.58
33.45
47.34
28.90
38.33
12.58
50.44
12.03 a 88.26
75.70
88.26
11.89
29.13
48.96
59.70
21.82
22.21
71.17
83.20
27.00
76.25
66.31
87.50
47.64
68.52
63.32
92.09
74.13
123.49
14.51
47.00
59.77
62.43
78.28
105.51
55.16
63.88
49.03
75.23
5.267
3.968
5.493
3.668
4.142
5.333
3.911
4.296
5.453
4.776
3.925
3.610
4.755
3.909
3.960
4.324
4.669
4.256
3.686
4.402
3.896
5.536
4.950
4.915
4.571
5.519
4.507
3.741
4.277
4.062
4.465
4.253
3.833
4.539
3.785
3.661
3.606
4.202
4.527
3.964
4.208
3.647
4.613
3.791
4.900
5.027
4.144
4.553
4.459
5.017
4.758
5.359
4.524
3.889
5.094
4.180
4.180
5.077
4.979
5.357
4.489
4.033
4.187
5.055
4.046
4.449
7.296
3.935
4.091
4.110
4.120
STOCK
Lifepoint Hospitals
Lincoln Electric Hldgs
Lincoln National Corp
Linear Technology Corp
Lowe’s Companies Inc
Lsi Corporation
Manpower Inc
Marsh & Mclennan Cos I
Mastec Inc
Mohawk Industries Inc
Mylan Inc
Nabors Industries Inc
National Oilwell Varco
Newell Rubbermaid Inc
Nextera Energy
Nielsen Holdings NV
NVIDIA Corporation
Oge Energy Corp
Omnicare Inc
Omnicom Group Inc
Packaging Corp Of Amer
Parker Hannifin Corp
Paychex Inc
Pentair Inc
Perkinelmer Incorporat
Pfizer Inc
Pnc Financial Svcs Grp
PowerShares DB Agricul
Qiagen Nv
Raytheon Co
Regions Financial Corp
Salix Pharmaceuticals
Sempra Energy
Service Corp Internat
Sigma-Aldrich Corp
Signature Bank
Southwest Airlines Co
SPDRs S&P 500 Trust Se
SPDRs Select Sector En
Stryker Corp
TAL International Grou
Teledyne Technologies
Texas Instruments Inc
Texas Roadhouse Inc Cl
The Travelers Companie
Thoratec Corporation
Torchmark Corp
Union Pacific Corp
United Technologies Co
Urs Corp
Vanguard Information T
Walt Disney Co The
Waters Corp
Westlake Chemical Corp
Williams Sonoma Inc
Zimmer Holdings
RECOMMENDED CURR. CASP.
DATE
PRICE PRICE INDEX
05/31/13 49.73
49.92
01/11/13 51.25
68.44
09/14/12 25.80
44.66
01/11/13 35.73
39.07
12/31/10 25.08
50.59
05/10/13
7.03
7.79
07/12/13 59.93
79.00
11/16/12 34.54
46.56
09/13/13 32.67
32.49
09/10/10 48.13
131.78
08/20/10 17.54
38.43
06/21/13 15.68
16.76
05/31/13 70.30
82.72
04/19/13 26.37
29.40
03/30/12 61.08
85.95
10/05/12 30.79
39.04
06/21/13 14.42
15.24
01/13/12 55.37
37.09
12/31/10 25.39
54.81
07/11/97 31.32 a 67.46
10/03/08 22.05
62.21
05/31/13 99.76
116.42
02/15/13 33.97
43.00
08/03/07 36.78
66.67
05/11/12 27.10
38.59
03/11/11 19.47
30.61
03/08/13 65.02
75.36
07/12/07 27.28
25.55
06/21/13 19.34
21.89
05/10/13 64.27
79.96
03/08/13
8.15
9.49
03/28/13 51.18
74.33
08/03/07 53.93
91.21
07/13/12 12.78
18.54
01/14/05 58.50
87.06
06/21/13 79.81
103.26
11/16/12
8.93
17.17
05/13/05 115.72
175.95
10/09/06 53.14
86.60
05/13/11 63.28
74.61
08/23/13 43.23
47.97
11/18/11 54.20
90.25
05/10/13 37.04
40.23
04/01/11 17.05
27.90
04/20/12 62.75
86.63
10/04/13 38.40
39.99
10/07/11 35.70
73.36
02/15/08 62.40 a 152.36
03/27/97 19.50 a 107.52
03/08/13 44.92
54.00
08/13/07 57.51
83.72
09/14/12 52.35
69.26
03/08/13 94.48
101.99
10/26/12 76.93
110.56
04/20/12 38.39
53.51
06/22/12 63.17
86.91
3.947
4.245
5.396
3.594
4.664
3.749
5.926
4.589
4.130
4.611
4.480
3.643
4.709
4.184
4.530
4.203
3.991
4.136
4.682
4.110
5.345
4.450
4.393
4.303
4.093
3.939
3.973
3.906
4.021
4.878
4.221
5.951
4.161
4.089
3.779
5.225
5.376
3.972
4.067
4.095
3.999
4.441
3.988
5.156
3.916
4.277
4.278
3.699
4.037
4.605
4.419
4.570
3.559
4.587
3.836
4.253
THE FOLLOWING STOCKS WERE DELETED THIS
WEEK:
Varian Medical Systems
Quest Diagnostics Inc
Stanley Worksthe
Altera Corp
Emc Corp
10/04/13
08/23/13
02/17/12
07/12/13
09/13/13
74.94
59.06
75.36
35.05
26.84
73.20
58.59
78.46
33.13
23.80
(a = adjusted for split)
Timer Digest
(Page Down)
3.433
3.359
3.167
3.131
3.076
7
October 28, 2013
Casper
Rank Rank
1
4.998
2
4.771
3
4.745
4
4.733
5
4.671
6
4.634
7
4.565
8
4.564
9
4.531
10
4.474
11
4.428
12
4.426
13
4.425
14
4.419
15
4.396
16
4.395
17
4.383
18
4.374
19
4.336
20
4.336
21
4.312
Fidelity Select Series
Programs
Casper
Price
111.89
39.00
86.27
70.23
36.86
78.90
119.01
34.97
189.02
84.47
130.12
175.44
68.45
33.76
25.22
68.64
56.35
32.55
19.45
21.76
17.53
Symbol
FSCSX
FSNGX
FSESX
FSRFX
FSMEX
FBMPX
FSDAX
FBSOX
FSPHX
FSRPX
FDLSX
FBIOX
FSLBX
FSCPX
FSRBX
FSPCX
FSAIX
FCYIX
FPHAX
FSLEX
FSVLX
Fund Name
Fidelity Sel Software
Fidelity Sel Natural G
Fidelity Sel Energy Se
Fidelity Sel Transport
Fidelity Sel Med Equip
Fidelity Sel Multimedi
Fidelity Sel Defense&A
Fidelity Sel IT Servic
Fidelity Sel Health Ca
Fidelity Sel Retailing
Fidelity Sel Leisure
Fidelity Sel Biotech
Fidelity Sel Brokerage
Fidelity Sel Cons Indu
Fidelity Sel Banking
Fidelity Sel Insurance
Fidelity Sel Air Trans
Fidelity Sel Industria
Fidelity Sel Pharma
Fidelity Sel Environme
Fidelity Sel Home Fina
Rank
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
Rank
4.310
4.307
4.303
4.277
4.262
4.259
4.237
4.220
4.192
4.186
4.166
4.156
4.128
4.113
4.019
3.986
3.976
3.919
3.857
3.010
Price
46.11
55.55
10.16
39.55
143.77
63.72
123.02
61.12
77.30
68.72
70.10
1759.77
58.53
83.40
68.82
93.13
57.29
15570.28
27.51
22.26
Symbol
FSCGX
FSAVX
FWRLX
FNARX
FSCHX
FSENX
FSPTX
FSTCX
FIDSX
FSUTX
FSHCX
SP-500
FSELX
FSDPX
FDCPX
FDFAX
FSHOX
DJ-30
FSDCX
FSAGX
Fund Name
Fidelity Sel Indust Eq
Fidelity Sel Automotiv
Fidelity Sel Wireless
Fidelity Sel Natural R
Fidelity Sel Chemicals
Fidelity Sel Energy
Fidelity Sel Technolog
Fidelity Sel Telecommu
Fidelity Sel Fincl Svc
Fidelity Sel Utilities
Fidelity Sel Medical D
S & P 500
Fidelity Sel Electroni
Fidelity Sel Materials
Fidelity Sel Computers
Fidelity Sel Cons Stap
Fidelity Sel Constr&Ho
DOW JONES INDUS
Fidelity Sel Comm Equi
Fidelity Sel Gold
The Diversified Select Program.
The Timer Digest ETF program
Since the October 7 issue, there are no changes to report. Current holdings are: Multimedia, and the Select Money Market Fund
(FSLXX). Please check the Hotline for updates.
Since the last issue, there are no changes to report.
Current holdings include:
Powershares Agriculture ETF (DBA)
Money Market Bal. $82,711.88.
Performance: 2013 to 10/25 +1.34%, 2012 -0.86%, 2011 -5.09%,
2010 +7.97%, 2009 +3.2%.
Program Performance: 2013 to 10/25 +9.89%, 2012 +4.99%, 2011
-1.63%, 2010 +7.13% , 2009 +11.3%, 2008 -30.5%, 2007 +14.4%, 2006
+15.8%, 2005 +5.1%, 2004 +13.3%, 2003 +32.1%, 2002 -7.9%, 2001 8.2%, 2000 +11.0%, 1999 +53.3%, 1998 +31.2%, 1997 +36.5%, 1996
+10.5%, 1995 +47.8%.
Dow Jones 30 Industrials October 25, 2013 - DJIA: 15,570.28
There are no changes to report for the Dow Jones 30 portfo- tor complacency likely continues to be fueled by investors assumptions of a perpetual monetary safety-net from the Fed. Based on
lio since the October 7 issue.
several years-worth of history, such an assumption is not without
The DJIA has risen 2.91% in October as the month nears its merit, though worrisome longer-term.
end. The second half gain-to-date now stands at 4.43%, on a
The current holdings and their costs are: Cisco Systems (24.31),
price basis. The year-to-date 2013 performance is +18.82%. Relative leadership on a rolling one-month basis has shifted in favor Du Pont (57.85), Home Depot (46.70), Johnson & Johnson (69.79),
of the S&P 500 index, while the DJIA trails the 3 benchmarks for and Microsoft (34.40).
both one- and three-month periods. Among individual Dow
Program performance: 2013 to 10/25 +12.83%, 2012 +6.05%,
stocks, recent leadership has been eclectic: Boeing, American
Express, Verizon, Disney, and Microsoft. Fundamentally, the 2011 +4.81%, 2010 +8.04%, 2009 +7.3%, 2008 – 37.7%, 2007 + 19.3%,
resolution to budget and debt-ceiling debates was predictable; 2006 + 12.2%, 2005 + 0.4%, 2004 - 2.4%, 2003 + 18.6%, 2002 -14.6%,
procrastination. And, the Federal Reserve Balance Sheet con- 2001 - 10.3%, 2000 - 28.8%, 1999 + 41.1%, 1998 + 33.4%, 1997 + 27.7%,
tinues to grow significantly. Technically, short-term indicators 1996 +15%, 1995 +20.1%, 1994 +4.7%, 1993 +27.6%, 1992 -3.2%, 1991
returned to overbought readings commensurate with the recent +46.5%, 1990 +0.1%, 1989 +23.1% (not including dividends. interest
strong advance. Sentiment has also deteriorated again. Inves- income or commission expense).
Casper
Rank Rank
1
5.596
2
5.417
3
4.741
4
4.570
5
4.490
6
4.342
7
4.250
8
4.153
9
4.046
10
4.037
11
4.033
12
3.984
13
3.939
14
3.916
15
3.866
16
3.861
Current
Price
131.19
75.70
203.06
69.26
35.73
82.61
61.90
124.42
92.09
107.52
76.25
50.71
30.61
22.45
15570.28
86.63
Symbol
BA
NKE
V
DIS
*MSFT
AXP
*DD
MMM
*JNJ
UTX
*HD
VZ
PFE
*CSCO
DJ-30
TRV
Security Name
Boeing Co
Nike Inc Cl B
Visa Inc
Walt Disney Co
Microsoft Corp
American Express
Du Pont de Nem
3M Company
Johnson & Johnson
United Technol
Home Depot Inc
Verizon Commu
Pfizer Inc
Cisco Systems
The Travelers Co
Casper
Rank Rank
17
3.697
18
3.675
19
3.664
20
3.659
21
3.633
22
3.610
23
3.583
24
3.572
25
3.569
26
3.518
27
3.438
28
3.388
29
3.359
30
3.248
31
3.016
Current
Price
24.24
80.00
162.09
52.77
39.03
67.62
76.08
87.97
120.59
35.19
46.54
94.78
84.77
25.88
176.85
Symbol
INTC
PG
GS
JPM
KO
UNH
WMT
XOM
CVX
T
MRK
MCD
CAT
GE
IBM
Security Name
Intel Corp
Procter & Gamble
Goldman Sachs Group
JPMorgan Chase
Coca-Cola Co
UnitedHealth Group
Wal-Mart Stores
Exxon Mobil
Chevron Corp
AT&T Inc
Merck & Co
Mcdonalds Corp
Caterpillar Inc
General Electric
Interna Bus Mac
* Included in Portfolio
Timer Digest
(Page Down)
Purchase Recommendations
October 25, 2013
DJIA: 15,570.28
Exch.
Code
Company Name
Ticker Casper Recent
Symbol Index Price
Ind.
Stop
October 28, 2013
S&P 500: 1759.77
Current
P-E
Current Current 5-Yr EPS Prj EPS Prj 3-5 Yr
Div
Yield
Growth Growth Apprec %
APACHE CORP.
Oil & Gas Expl/Prod.
NYSE
APA
4.542
90.45
76.88
10.7
0.80
0.9%
3.0%
8.0%
78
BUNGE LTD.
Farm Products
NYSE
BG
4.694
82.39
70.03
18.3
1.20
1.5%
NM
15.0%
93
CON-WAY
Trucking
NYSE
CNW
4.805
45.44
38.62
28.9
0.40
0.9%
NM
12.5%
87
ENCANA CORP.
Oil & Gas Expl/Prod.
NYSE
ECA
4.677
18.32
15.57
25.4
0.80
4.4%
NM
7.0%
74
SUNCOR ENERGY
Oil & Gas (Integ’d)
NYSE
SU
4.516
35.99
30.59
12.9
0.76
2.1%
5.0%
7.0%
77
Model Portfolio Report - October 25, 2013
Since the October 7 issue, there have been no changes for
the Model Portfolio.
The S&P 500 index gained an impressive 4.65%, on a price
basis, during 4 trading weeks in October thusfar. Relative leadership has shifted moderately to reflect a mixed profile. The Russell
2000 and Mid-Cap 400 still lead over a broader time horizon. But,
short-term relative performance has recently favored the S%P
500. The combination may support a conclusion for near-term
consolidation within a favorable trend.
Economic reports and other fundamental factors still lag the
historically robust performance by the stock market. Federal Reserve efforts to flood the system with liquidity continue to undermine the attractiveness of fixed income securities. So, investors
have been forced to allocate funds to higher risk areas in search
of total return.
Housing market data have been favorable of late, though not
remarkable, given the Federal Reserve mandate. The August
Construction Spending report was the highlight, with outlays
ahead of estimates and a sharp upward revision in the July figure.
On the other hand, September Existing Home Sales were flat (August revised slightly downward) and the October Housing Market Index softened. It will be important to monitor the success of
Fed intervention for signs of diminishing returns.
The Current Portfolio:
Number
Purchase
Current Casper
Shares Stock
Price
Date
Price
Index
3588 Powershres Agricult ETF 24.00 02/17/09 25.55
3.906
891 Energy Sector SPDR ETF 77.48 02/22/11 86.60
4.067
2672 ConAgra Foods
25.21 05/09/11 31.72
3.833
4150 Covanta Hldg. Corp.
17.15 07/02/12 17.27
3.661
1040 Nat’l Oilwell Varco
70.04 06/20/13 82.72
4.709
Current Cash Balance $364,099.59
S&P sector leadership has been variable but still
constructive: Telecom Services, Financials, and Energy, respectively. Laggards have changed slightly to
include: Industrials, Consumer Staples, and Utilities.
Market reaction to the partial Government shutdown
was restrained by the reality that a compromise would
be achieved and the Fed would remain active.
Technically, the market has returned to an overbought condition ahead of a seasonally favorable period in November and December. Perhaps a brief consolidation will precede the next attempt to extend gains.
Model Portfolio Performance: 2013 to 10/25 +4.26%,
2012 +3.87%, 2011 -0.43%, 2010 +6.11%, 2009 +15.5%,
2008 -30.5%, 2007 +9.0%, 2006 +18.3%, 2005 +16.1%,
2004 +6.8%, 2003 +9.6%, 2002 -17.6%, 2001 -15.8%, 2000
+12.3%, 1999 +13.1%, 1998 +37.2%, 1997 +30.1%, 1996
+13.2%, 1995 +50.5%, 1994 +1.2%, 1993 +46%, 1992 3.5%, 1991 +40%, 1990 -3.51%, 1989 + 41.4% (not including dividends, interest income or commissions).
Timer Digest
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