here - Futures House

Transcription

Destinations 2030
The Future of Holidays & Travel
SENSORY
EXPERIENCES
OPENING UP
OF SECOND-TIER
DESTINATIONS
ROVED
ABLED
SSIBILITY
VOLUMTOURISM
CULTURAL
TOURISM
DARK TOURISM
FUSION
HOLIDAYS
‘FAKE’
DESTINATIONS
FILM & BOOK
INSPIRED
HOLIDAYS
SAFE
ADVENTURE
PREMIUMISATION
GROWTH
OF INBOUND
TOURISM
EP HOTELS
TIVES
IONAL
LS
EVENT-BASED
TOURISM
GROWTH OF GLOBAL
MIDDLE CLASS
ROOTS
TOURISM
ECONOMIC HUB
VOCATION
VACATIONS
‘EDUTOURISM’
NEW DEFINITION
OF VALUE
D TOURISM
MEDICAL
TOURISM
MANCATIONS
THE ‘LIKE’ ECONOMY
TRIBAL
TRAVEL
PRICE
POLARISATION
DESTINATIONS HUB
GE
ONS
FINDING
THE REAL
YOU
SPA CULTURE
OST
SES
WORK INSECURITY
TECH-FREE
RESORTS
INCREASING
COMPLEXITY
SOLO TRAVEK
ASING
TANCE
HETICS
SITE
SHORTAGES TRAVELLING
LIGHT
ECO-TOURISM
LOCALISM
CASHLESS TRAVEL
CARBON
FOOTPRINTS
BEHAVIOURAL HUB
LIGHTER AIRCRAFT
NEW MATERIALS
WEARABLE
COMPUTERS
DO IT YOURSELF
SERVICE
RESOURCES ORICE
VOLATILITY
FUEL EFFICIENT
AIRCRAFT
TER
RAFT
TECHN
ESCAPISM
SLOW TRAVEL
ENVIRONMENT HUB
AIRPORT AUTOMATION
PAPERLESS
BOARDING
CARBON FOOTPRINTS
ICE TOURISM
THER
NNING
DIGITAL NOMADS
TOO MUCH
INFORMATION
TOO MUCH CHOICE
INCREASING
TRANSPARENCY
ETHICAL TOURISM
LDER
THER
INC
VO
SWITCHING OFF
SEARCH FOR
AUTHENTICITY
HEALTH & WELLBEING
HOLIDAYS
WEATHER
ESCAPES
GROWTH OF P/T
& FREELANCE WORK
TIRED ALL
THE TIME
NOSTALGIA
INDIVIDUAL
WEATHER
INSURANCE
SITE SHORTAGES
WATER SHORTAGES
Futures House, London, January 2014
www.futureshouse.eu
‘SELFIES’
SMART HOTEL ROOMS
CROWD-SOURCED
PHOTO ALBUMS
CARBON NEGATIVE
HOLIDAYS
GROWTH OF
LONG-DISTANCE RAIL
MICROPERSONALISATION
UBIQUITOUS WI-FI
RISING ENERGY
COSTS
BIG D
Contents
Part 1: Going on Holiday
1.1.................Why we’ll still want to get away
1.2.................Who we’ll go with
1.3.................Where we’ll go
1.4.................When we’ll go
1.5.................How we’ll get there
1.6.................Where we’ll stay
1.7.................What else we’ll do on holiday
1.8.................What we’ll bring home
Part 2: Holiday Details
2.1.................Booking the holiday
2.2................Paying for the holiday
2.3................Insurance for the trip
2.4.................Packing the suitcase
2.5
Postcard from the future
(A Day in the Life: 2030)
Part 3: Holiday Extras & Excursions
3.1
Summary
Seven Trends for the Future
of holidays & travel
3.2
Heavy turbulence
(some disaster scenarios)
3.3................Ten future holiday & travel ideas
Part 4: Holiday Reading
4.1.................Reports
4.2................Websites
4.3................Newspapers & magazines
4.4.................Books
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Part 1
Going on Holiday
The impulse to travel links to human inquisitiveness and the need to
rest, relax and reconnect and the continued popularity of holidaying
is a sure sign that in an era characterised by upheaval, some things
remain remarkably consistent.
In 2012, a record one billion people travelled internationally. By 2020, this figure is expected to
reach around 1.4 billion (1.5 billion by 2025) and travel remains one of the largest and important
economic activities worldwide, representing approximately 1 in 12 global jobs and around 5% of
global GDP.
One might imagine that in times of economic austerity, geo-political turbulence, climate
concerns and technological change, the opposite might be the case – that we would all be
holidaying at home, in virtual worlds or nowhere at all - but for a great many people this is
simply not the case. Despite SARS, Asian Flu, 9/11, oil price shocks, climate change concerns
and the eruption of Eyjafjallajökull, the leisure travel industry has remained remarkably
resilient of late– bouncing back quickly after short-term shocks.
In Britain, Spain remains the most popular holiday destination and thoughts of a sun drenched
(or snow covered) elsewhere still remain at the forefront of most peoples’ minds. This may
change over time, but while destinations and modes of transport will evolve, the need to get
away and reconnect with oneself or with others, especially loved ones, will, we believe, remain
constant.
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1.1
Why we’ll still want to get away
Part 1 Going on Holiday
Logically, travel makes little or no sense. Why leave the comfort, convenience, connectivity
and relative certainty of home to travel hundreds, if not thousands, of miles to do what often
amounts to very little?
Some people travel to discover new things, to immerse themselves in new cultures, but for
most, the need to slow down and do next to nothing trumps the wish to follow in the sandy
footsteps of Bruce Chatwin, Paul Theroux or Bill Bryson. A key reason for this appears to be
work. In 2011, nearly 50 per cent of UK adults reported relatively low satisfaction with their
work-life balance.
A fundamental driver of most holidays is the desire to unwind and escape from work or to get
away from ‘life’ for a while. Increasingly we are working more than we realise too. The middle
classes probably have the strongest reason to go on holiday, because they work the longest
hours. Full-time managers and senior officials in the UK are paid, on average, for 38.5 hours
a week, but actually work for 46.2 hours, a difference of 7.6 hours. Similarly, the professional
classes are paid, on average, for 36.6 hours per week, but end up working for 43.4 (a gap of 6.8
hours). (ONS).
Hence the need to stop, switch off and get away, even if all people do is cross the channel and
spend the next two weeks still tethered to work via a mobile device. If the future is faster, more
volatile, more uncertain and contains more work, then the need to get away and unwind will
almost certainly grow.
The same will broadly be true if families become more atomised, relationships become more
virtual and people do not see their loved ones as often as they would like – they will want to
invent ways to reconnect and bring the family back together.
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1.2
Who we’ll go with
The travel industry, like other sectors, tends to equate family with ‘nuclear family’, which is
the traditional unit of married mother and father and two smiling children. However the make
up of households is changing rapidly and will continue to do so. So companies that recognise
changing needs and respond flexibly will flourish. Nowadays, the largest single household type
in the UK, as in many other countries, contains just one person – there were 8 million of them
in 2012 or just under 30% of all UK households and this is projected to rise to over 10 million by
2025.
Only about 20% of households contain dependent children and so whilst the ‘family holiday’ still
exists, and is still big business, the majority of holidaymakers now comprise people travelling
alone, single parents, married and unmarried couples and groupings of friends. Additionally,
adults are having fewer children and are having them later, which means more mature parents
– the average age that people have children in the UK is now 29 (vs. 23 in 1975).
There are also more couples without children, more same sex couples, more couples with
children from more than one relationship, more adults living with parents (30% of 25-yearold men currently live at home), more couples living together that are not married (1.5 million
opposite sex couples living together in 1996 compared to 2.9 million in 2012) and many more
(much) older couples. (14 million aged 60+ now with a forecast of 17.5 million 60+ by 2025), all of
which makes the idea of a ‘family holiday’ slightly ambiguous.
In the future we can expect to see single parent ‘family’ holidays together with single parent
discounts, more multigenerational leisure experiences and more singles travelling alone to
meet other singles, especially people with similar interests (Cue social network airline tickets
that match seating plans to interests, allowing us to connect in different ways).
We might also see holidays tailored to recently separated singles - not so much a seven-year
itch as a 57, 67, 77 and 87-year itch (the number of over-60s divorcing has risen by over a third
in a decade while divorce rates for younger couples has fallen). An increase in older people
living alone also means more pets as companions. This could, in turn, create a boom in pet
friendly travel – or the opportunity for holiday companies to offer boarding services with
the same reassurance and attention to detail that the owners receive, as pet boarding costs
become a significant part of many peoples’ total holiday expenditure.
We should also not forget ethnicity. ‘British’ used to mean white or at least born and bred
in Britain. This is no longer the case. The 2011 UK Census showed that one in eight of the
population were born abroad, so increasing migration and ethnic diversity could open up a
whole new segment of travellers less motivated by “traditional” fish and chips on the Costa
Brava and more interested in reconnecting with their roots.
Similarly, we should remember that in many instances friends are the new family and people
will travel not with direct family, but with colleagues, neighbours and virtual friends.
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1.3
Where we’ll go
If some people are to believed, we will soon be taking holidays on the moon, but the reality
within our time frame is likely to be more prosaic for most. Yes, space tourism has some
potential – even at the low level of zero gravity trips and Antarctica is becoming an aspirational
tourist destination, but both are likely to remain the preserve of (super) wealthy travellers
for the foreseeable future. A more likely prospect sees Britons travelling further and faster
thanks to developments such as low-cost long-haul flights and long-distance, high-speed, rail.
Conversely, we will also rediscover old places, especially places closer to home, and choose to
get there more slowly in some instances (hiring a vintage Citroen 2CV for a week of slow travel
in Normandy, for example).
One development that we are already experiencing is a growth in tourist numbers, especially
the rise in those from countries with a rapidly developing middle class such as China, India and
Russia. Chinese tourists are already the third most important inbound market for Italy, and
1.4 million of them visited France last year. Half a million Indians flock annually to the Bernese
Oberland, where many Bollywood productions are now set.
As many resorts fill up with such tourists, many UK holidaymakers will either be priced out
or will choose to stay somewhere else. Travel is often tribal and most people prefer to holiday
with people similar to, or exactly the same as, themselves. Witness the English and Germans
occupying sun loungers in Majorca or the Russians invading bar stools in Kemer (Turkey). In
fact some Russian tour companies are already offering trips for discerning Russians to where
their fellow countrymen don’t go.
In 1995 2.6 million Russians went on holiday outside the former
Soviet Union; by 2012 the figure had reached around 12 million.
Countries such as China and India are, of course, developing their own resorts and we can expect
at least some Britons to travel in the opposite direction. How about booking for 2 weeks at a 5-Star
eco beach resort in Sanya (China) in 2030, for example? Other nations that should enjoy an influx
of holidaymakers, especially from the UK, include countries that are developing economically (e.g.
Ukraine), those transitioning to stable democracies (Burma etc.) or those set to benefit from changing
weather patterns (Dubai, Oman et al). There is, of course, also the thought that there are more than
200 countries in the world, but the average person only regularly visits 20 or fewer in a lifetime. There
are countries, especially in Asia and Africa that British holidaymakers haven’t even heard of let alone
visited.
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Future long distance holiday hot spots may include: Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, Argentina,
Iran, Syria, Rwanda, Sierra Leone, Angola, Cape Verde, Cambodia, Gabon, Zambia and Namibia.
As a countertrend to this exoticism, many will also choose to stay at home and the significance of
domestic tourism should not be ignored, especially given that many people perceive a UK break to be
cheaper than one abroad, although a recent (April 2013) survey by the Post Office revealed that many
European resorts have become cheaper of late (Spain is highlighted as being up to 20% cheaper than
in 2012). And at the further end of the spectrum, in our economically straitened times, 30% of Britons
can’t afford a holiday anywhere.
Overall, as people’s thirst for variety and discovery grows, allied to the increased speed and
convenience of long haul, what we’ll see is the popularity of Hybrid Holidays – either a weekend
in a tent in Wales and a week in Majorca or one or two weeks in Spain that includes a couple
of nights in a stylish air-conditioned tent. Similarly, more people may opt for a week in a
traditional hotel in the Algarve, but twin this with a motorhome to explore the unseen side of
Portugal.
Destinations will clearly evolve, but overall, what most holiday-makers will want in 5, 10 or 15
years time will be much the same as what they wanted 5, 10 or 15 years ago – value for money,
reliable weather (generally warm and sunny) safe adventure, personalised experiences and
above all the opportunity to get away and relax and spend time with people they care about.
In 2012, Wanderlust Magazine, asked independently minded travellers for their top emerging
destinations and the list included Sudan, Greenland, Mongolia, Tajikistan, Pakistan , Cook
Islands, Taiwan, Lebanon, Fiji, Iran. The WTTC have also compiled a list of the world’s fastest
growing destinations.
World’s Fastest Growing
Holiday Destinations
Top destinations for the 19th
Century British Traveller
1.Qatar
2.Azerbaijan
3.Kyrgyzstan
4.Montenegro
5.Uzbekistan
6.Belarus
7.Panama
8.Philippines
9.Tunisia
10.Chile
1. River Nile
2. Paris via Brussels and the Rhine
3.Davos
4. The Holly Land
5. Niagara Falls
6. French coast (Nice, Biarritz, Deauville)
7.Italy
8. Scandinavian Fjords
9. Bath, UK
10.Shanghai
Source: World Travel & Tourism Council.
Clearly many (if not most) of these are not
obvious sea and sand destinations, and
future political circumstances are always
uncertain. but where the pioneers go, the
mass market tends to follow.
Source: The Guardian (30 October, 2009)
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1.4
When we’ll go
Unless a future Secretary of State for Education in the UK changes term times, most families
in the UK will go away during school holidays, which essentially means July and August (or
sometimes Christmas or Easter). For those without school age children (and there will be more
of them in the future), there is more flexibility, but even here it is difficult to see the nation’s
holidays habits radically changing.
More freelance, more project based and more part-time work will, in theory, open up other holiday
periods, but people are also limited by the weather, especially in Europe. Changing climate may alter
things, and wilder and more volatile weather is likely to stir things up some more, but unless people
are prepared to travel further afield in search of guaranteed sun, or snow, we wouldn’t expect radical
change. This said, people are more likely to demand holidays that do not conform to the standard 7
or 14 day break and an aging population in the UK could mean more older holiday makers escaping
British winters. (Currently, 871,000 seniors “flexi-stay” by living part or all of the year abroad).
While 75% of baby boomers hadn’t been abroad before their
16th birthday, only 25% of millennials haven’t.
Source: Research by the Post Office (2011)
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1.5
How we’ll get there
Air-travel will remain a key component of the foreign holiday experience, although we will start
to see some significant changes, both in the air and on the ground. A key change will be the
development of lighter, quieter, cleaner and more fuel efficient aircraft that conform to both the
environmental wishes of governments and the profit prerogatives of private companies. Lowcost flying is likely to expand further, both in terms of market share and geographical reach,
and overall travel will continue to polarise between low cost and luxury segments, with the
former stripping out all kinds of services (adding them back in for additional payment in some
instances) while the latter continues to add personal pampering and indulgences for “free”.
“In a decade or so, airlines will pay travellers to distribute
people around Europe. The airline industry is network TV in the
way viewers watch for free and advertisers pay for access to
them, is the Internet in the same way that websites earn money
for delivering click-through traffic.” to other sites.”
Michael O’Leary, CEO, Ryanair
Things could even polarise further, with airline travel becoming free at the one end with
passengers paying to sit down, eat, drink or use the bathroom, while business class
passengers club together and migrate by hiring small private jets operated by luxury hotel
brands out of regional airports at the other. But before people contend with the on-board
aircraft experience, there’s the small matter of navigating the airport. Currently, one of the
most common complaints passengers have about flying is delayed flights and especially
inaccurate or misleading information about departure times.
As mobile devices become (literally in the future), part of us surely a lack of information will
be one thing that future passengers won’t have to contend with. If information and to some
extent identity can be verified by mobile device then not only will queuing at a check-in counter
disappear in the future, but so too will paper boarding passes.
Even passports may one day become obsolete, being replaced in the first instance by ID
verification via mobile phone (supplemented by automated biometric checking and malicious
intent detectors).
The more people will be willing to surrender data about themselves to the providers, and
become “trusted travellers” the faster the travel experience will become. Holiday companies
that encourage customers to make use of personal data in a secure and confidential way will be
able to provide a far more seamless and easy experience.
Travel is currently responsible for 1/3 of all e-commerce
spending online, according to McKinsey & Company.
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Indeed, the entire airport experience will one day be paperless and hence much simpler.
Check-in will be via self-service terminals (not necessary at the airport) and bags will be
dropped off either via unmanned terminals or via drive-through bag drops when passengers
park their car at the airport.
As for the bags themselves, many will contain GPS so that not only the airport, but the
passengers themselves can track bags in real time – much in the same way that FedEx etc.
currently allow customers to do with parcels. BA is already testing reusable wireless luggage
tags using e-paper displays that allow customers to create their own identifiers at home,
although a more secure solution might be to have the tag embedded within the bag itself.
Overall then, more of the passenger and baggage processing will be done by passengers
themselves, often outside the direct airport environs. For example, why not avoid baggage
reclaim at the other end of your flight and have the airline deliver your bags to your rental
car, hotel or resort for an additional fee. Unless, of course, unless you are flying First Class,
in which case onward delivery will be free and you’ll also have the option of having your bags
personally delivered to the ‘freshen up’ suite at the arrivals lounge or unpacked, ironed and
placed directly in your hotel room.
The use of smart phones and tablet devices will revolutionise the airport experience in other
ways too. Online maps will help guide passengers through airports, although even these might
appear quaint if people start using augmented reality glasses to create 3D route maps.
Such devices might not make much of an impact at Tenerife or Majorca airports, but even here
customers will see a significantly more automated airport process and it would not be too far
fetched to suggest that in a more distant future all physical airport signage would disappear
because all airport information will be replicated virtually.
For example, we may see the disappearance of flight information boards because passengers
would be told directly when their flight was boarding and from which gate by their mobile
device and even manned boarding gates could disappear because ID would be checked
automatically with bio-metric boarding gates.
Paper immigration forms could disappear too, as these would be online, filled in prior to
boarding or on the plane itself and supplemented with biometric ID checks at kiosks.
Virtual reality may make an impact in other areas too, We’ve already seen Tesco launch a virtual store
at Gatwick’s North Terminal that allows customers to pre-order groceries and other essentials to be
delivered directly to their home on their return from holiday. This could work in the other direction
too, with groceries and travel necessities from home being sent to hotels abroad. Ideal for families with
children who are fussy (or xenophobic) eaters.
But if physical objects like check-in counters were to disappear, what could be put in their
place? From being places to park, shop and be sent into the air, airports could recapture
the magic they held at the start of the travel revolution by becoming places of discovery and
entertainment, where people will want to spend time, rather than being forced to. At Chicago’s
O’Hare International Airport, for instance, there is a farmer’s market for passengers to graze,
while Munich Airport has its own brewery. Other options to fill space and time might include
ski-slopes (try ski equipment before you arrive at the mountain resort), tanning kiosks,
swimming pools, hot tubs and spas (the last two are done already, but they tend to be located
in premium airline lounges) and giant wall-sized screens showing video of various destinations
(similar to the video installations used at LAXs Bradley International Terminal). Airports could
even reinstate viewing platforms and link these to virtual reality flight simulators.
In other words, airports will become destinations in their own right and will be increasingly
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redesigned to add to the holiday experience rather than detracting from it, which all too often is
the case nowadays.
On-board aircraft change will be significant too. Entertainment options will start to mirror what
happens on the ground, with access to almost anything at almost any time (paid for in Economy, free
in Business and gift wrapped in First). By around 2025, it will be possible to access any movie or song
ever made at 39,000 feet and we would certainly expect passengers to be able to access their own
films, music or games via The Cloud or via their own devices (but displayed on seat-back screens, with
some screens available in 3D or even holographically) much sooner than that. On board Internet access
will be ubiquitous and passengers will no longer be told to turn off electronic devices during take off
and landing. Similarly, communications will mirror the access that passengers increasingly expect on
the ground. For example, passengers might be able to send their holiday videos for editing back home
while still in the air.
Although the technology exists, whether people will start to make voice calls during flights
is uncertain. In 2012, the CEO of AeroMobile, which provides mobile connectivity to a large
number of airlines predicted that around 1,000 aircraft would be fitted with the company’s
systems by 2015, using international mobile rates, rather than the prohibitive costs of fitted
phones. Anecdotal evidence suggests that not everyone is happy with the idea of sitting next
to someone making a 21-hour phone call all the way from London to Sydney, but texting does
seem more acceptable. Perhaps what will happen is that airlines will segment planes into voice
and non-voice sections, much in the same way that some InterCity train operators separate
carriages into quiet zones.
As for airline food, this too will polarise between choice and almost no choice at all – a
sandwich (or none) at one end of the plane and line-caught salmon, grilled organic beef or
Moroccan chicken at the other. Food will also offer a choice between good for you (healthy and
light) and sheer indulgence (naughty but nice). It will split between free and paid-for depending
on airline and seat class, although the option of buying business class food while travelling
economy could become increasingly popular as people demand greater personalisation and
flexibility throughout the flight experience. (When are low-cost airlines going to realise that at
least some of the passengers squeezed in to the back of the plane in Economy also fly Business
when working or are travelling on to a luxury hotel after the plane has landed?).
One further food development that could become more popular is the personalisation of food
via the pre-booking of meals, or meal times, although some operators may ditch the idea of
food service altogether, replacing it with vending machines or help yourself fridges in galley
areas. Some may also locate these vending machines and fridges at boarding gates so that
passengers can select their meals and drinks before they board their plane (please more
rubbish bins by these gates too so that people can dump rubbish and unwanted sections of
newspapers – thus saving weight - prior to boarding the flight).
One further big step could be the development of cabin baggage only flights. Currently, the price of
air travel is hugely impacted by the cost of jet fuel, the burning of which is heavily influenced by the
weight of passengers and their luggage. One way to reduce the amount of fuel burnt (and hence the
cost of the ticket) could be to ban hold luggage altogether or charge passengers according to the
combined weight of the passenger and their luggage. This idea has been tested by Samoan Airlines,
but it has the potential to be rolled out by other airlines too. One advantage for passengers (at least
small ones) is simplification – everyone knows in advance that extra pounds will cost extra pounds and
can pack accordingly. Alternatively, why not allow passengers with no checked luggage - or those with
the smallest or lightest carry on bags - to board the aircraft first?
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The top European low-cost
carriers in 2030 (maybe…)
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Tiger Thomson
Air Asia Europe
Jazeera Airways
Fly Dubai
Easy Indigo
Clearly, carry-on only flights won’t work over long distances - or in colder climates when
people need more clothes - but if a holiday is a week in Spain during July there’s no reason
why many of the essentials cannot be pre-booked, bought locally and be placed in a hotel room
awaiting the guest’s arrival or sent in advance by other modes of transport, as happened a
century or more ago with travellers sending their luggage on ahead.
If we fly further into the future, things could get even more interesting. We’ve already read about
concepts such as glass-topped aircraft from Airbus (like bottomless boats but the other way up), planes
flying in V-shaped formations (like geese) to reduce drag, planes with ‘clip on’ cabins, enabling a switch
between cargo and passengers, smaller planes flying to even smaller airports (booked via passengers
that aggregate into buyer groups on the Internet) and planes with touch screen windows that can
display outside temperature and interactive journey maps. All very sci-fi, so how about pilotless planes?
In Spring 2013, the first pilotless test flight took place in UK airspace as part of the ASTREA project
(Autonomous Systems Technology Related Airborne Evaluation), using a standard Jetstream aircraft
with banks of computers, sensors and high definition cameras. This idea fills most passengers with
fear, but most passengers are experiencing hands-free flight already, often without knowing it, at least
during cruising altitude.
Finally, there’s the future development of eco-friendly hybrid jet planes.
Hybrid planes would involve a combination of jet engine and electric power, conventional jet fuel
being used for take off and landing, switching to environmentally friendly electric power once cruising
altitude has been achieved. Or electric take off with the battery being recharged while cruising. A
number of developments are at an early stage at the moment, but Siemens has created a two-seater
aircraft powered by an electric series hybrid drive system which made its maiden flight in early 2013. It
is estimated that a hybrid jet liner would use 25% less fuel than current aircraft, which means this type
of technology is likely to be fast tracked and in partial use at least by 2025.
The plane that the 2025 holidaymaker sits in will almost certainly not have been produced in
the same way as in 2013. 3D printing will be used to produce many of the component parts with
speed, precision and low cost as benefits. By 2050 it is not inconceivable that fully 3D printed
planes will be flying the skies.
Other holiday transport used in the future will almost certainly include high-speed crosscountry trains (many with sleeping carriages containing not only flat beds, but private cabins
and even showers). This development will primarily be cost and convenience driven. Journeys
to and from major cities can be frustrating partly due to the time spent getting to and from the
airport. If the destination is another city, even one a thousand miles away, high-speed trains,
especially ones that connect via moving platforms, can deliver passengers more or less point
to point.
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Alternatively, going out further into the future we might see the development of vacuum tube
transport systems, which are a bit like the vacuum tubes used by old-fashioned department
stores to move cash payments from one floor to another, but with people inside. One version of
this, the “Hyperloop” envisages solar-powered, vacuum-sealed tubes, which could transport
people and cars from Los Angeles to San Francisco in under 30 minutes at speeds up to 800
miles per hour, while the passengers inside would only experience G-forces similar to a car
ride.
Another old form of transport that could enjoy a comeback is shipping. The holiday cruise
industry is well established, but future ships will appeal both to a rapidly ageing population and
to people seeking out safe discovery. Ships are relatively secure and minimise onward travel
in that the sights can be brought to the ship. For those wanting to see foreign cultures without
actually being exposed to them directly, ships, like coaches to some extent, offer a convenient
form of voyeurism. Perhaps we’ll see glass bottomed (or at glass-tipped) cruise ships much in
the same way that me might see aircraft with transparent roofs?
A further word about airports
Douglas Adams once observed that: “It can hardly be a coincidence that no language on earth
has ever produced the expression, ‘As pretty as an airport’.” Like it or not, until someone
invents teleportation, we are stuck with airports, so we might as well make them as pleasant
as possible.
A major complaint about airports is waiting in queues, especially at security, so one thing
that would help would be improvements whereby an airport knows who certain people are
in advance and moves them through security quickly. This happens already, to a degree, with
separate Business Class screening (Virgin Atlantic, Heathrow, for example), but biometrics
together with pre-flight security clearance and ‘known traveler’ schemes will help further.
Other good news could be the development of GPS enabled luggage that can be tracked by
passengers in real time (“help, they’re putting me on the wrong plane”). Creating passports
from e-paper (or printing tickets on e-paper) would also allow the display information not only
about the passenger, but about flights too - allowing passengers to know precisely if a flight is
delayed and what time they should leave home for the airport (Like the LED displays on some
London bus stops that show the expected time of the next bus – which can be accessed via a
smartphone while you are still at home).
Finally there are cars. It is unlikely that cars (electric or otherwise) will threaten airplanes over
long distances in the future, but once at a resort we’d expect more people, especially younger
travellers in cities, organising their own sightseeing activities using car-sharing services
(frequently electric or hybrid) rather than using traditional rental cars. Car2Go in the US is a
shape of things to come in this regard.
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1.6
Where we’ll stay
For most holidaymakers going away involves staying in a hotel, so what are guests looking for now
and what can they expect to see when they check-in five, ten or fifteen years hence? According to
a survey by Hotels.com, what people want now is free and easily accessible Wi-Fi. This ranks above
high-end coffee makers, iPod docks, video-game systems and DVD players. 38% of survey respondents
stated that free Wi-Fi was a must when staying at a hotel, with 35% saying it was the single amenity
they wanted to see more of in hotels. By 2030, lacking wifi access will be inconceivable. It will be freely
available and ubiquitous – and crucially phone charges abroad will all be at domestic rates, or with free
calls and costs made up from other bundled services as the use of skype and facetime will have totally
transformed the telephone business model.
Hotels and resorts will provide an e-Butler service to help you understand all the technology
you’ve bought tax-free and a large safe to store valuables – especially iPads, laptops and
phones (will someone please invent a safe for electrical devices that charges devices while they
are in the safe!).
Apart from cleanliness, safety, value for money, location, privacy and perhaps a good view
out of the window, other desirables might include a bathroom or kitchen area better that
guests have at home, breakfast to go, happy hours, a technology ‘bar’ to charge, buy or borrow
devices, bedtime menus (everything from fluffy teddy bears to fur-lined hand-cuffs).
Premium hotels will also offer services such as the ability to download personal exercise
programs onto hotel gym equipment and the ability to buy many of the items showcased in the
rooms themselves – especially technology, sleep and bathroom related items.
Beyond these ideas, what people will want above anything else are comfort, personalisation and
convenience. For example, why not check yourself in via your mobile phone or iPad and use the same
device to open your bedroom door via a Q-code or ID reader. Similarly, rather than asking the front
desk for advice about where to eat or what to see, why not download the hotel’s app (or borrow one
of the hotel’s low cost mobile devices – the Casio watch equivalent of a tablet, retailing at around
£10) that will contain daily updated suggestions for local restaurants, cafes and bars and include a
hologramatic avatar to get you there (and importantly in more far flung exotic destinations, with
signage in a foreign language), back again.
Personalisation (guests bringing their own entertainment) also means plugging devices into
the hotel’s hardware (TVs, music systems etc.), the ability to change, (before arriving in some
instances), room temperature and lighting and even pre-order a mattresses on an international
scale of softness to suit particular body weights or sleep patterns, along with special pillows
that sense allergies or the presence of insects that may have escaped the hotel’s bug detector
system.
In the future guests may even be able to personalise hotel rooms according to what mood
they are in or want to create. For instance, flick a switch (or select an app) to instantly create
‘business’, ‘romantic’, ‘relaxing’ or ‘invigorating’ (and heaven forbid if you mix them up!).
Perhaps we’ll see switches in hotel rooms that can be turned to age settings, thereby adjusting
lighting, sound systems and TV channels according to whether a guest is 18 or 80 years-of-age.
Personalisation also means managing your own instant room upgrades and communicating
with a hotel directly in advance about meal requirements.
Going further out in time, we can imagine intelligent surfaces in hotel rooms, walls that become giant
14
TV screens and even windows that become screens (to play movies, display exterior temperatures or
simply to change the view of the one outside if this doesn’t appeal). A view of the Serengeti from your
hotel in Ibiza! Why not? And why not have screens in various parts of hotels connected to webcams
showing real-time beach, snow and airport traffic conditions too? And what about using 3D printing to
make items that travellers have left behind by accident? Need a plastic comb or a toothbrush?
A favourite toy, lost in transit? Easy. Just download a design and print one in your hotel room.
Sooner rather than later, hotel rooms will feature screens onto which guests download or stream their
own news and entertainment via The Cloud. Hotel phones (a traditional and highly lucrative revenue
stream) will have long gone. As we’ve seen with airlines, what’s needed in the future is not devices or
necessarily content, but large screens and fast Internet and the ability to connect these to a guest’s
own media choices, which might include online Bibles or other religious texts of the guest’s choice.
Technology could enable guests to check on things back home, not by calling up friends and family
that are keeping an eye on things (has the cat been fed, do the tomatoes need watering?), but via
sensors and apps that can monitor doors, windows, central heating and even the cat.
More usefully, communications (especially video) could allow guests to talk with their local
doctor back home rather than relying on someone that doesn’t know them or their existing
conditions. Conversely, thanks to the ageing UK population, we’ll also see more people going
away on medical holidays to recover from illnesses or to have medical procedures performed
in another (lower cost) country.
As for not speaking a foreign language (62% of Briton’s don’t) Google has already launched
Google translate, which may one day make learning or speaking a foreign language totally
obsolete. Your phone will not only become a simultaneous translation device, allowing you to
communicate fluently in real time, but also a screen that can translate everything from road
signs to menus into English.
Guests bringing their own devices (BYOD) means something else too – big data and analytics.
This links with the thought of personalisation and prediction and hotels (and airlines and
holiday companies for that matter) will be in a much stronger position to recognise individual
holiday makers and respond to or predict their likes and dislikes. This happens already with
high-end hotels and airlines, but the idea will trickle down to budget hotels and low-cost
airlines too.
Clearly there are logistical issues around this and knowing too much about an individual or
family might appear rather creepy. Nevertheless, recognising people and communicating with
them directly rather than through an intermediary is likely to be big business.
As for using online holiday review websites, 44% of Britons claim that they trust reviews
written on websites such as TripAdvisor, although we’d expect to see a reversal of this trust
sooner or later.
Reviews will be attributed and people will follow those with a trusted reputation of specialist
knowledge (often travel agents and travel bloggers that travel themselves of course!). We
expect guests to continue to rate hotels and resorts, but there will be a shift here too towards
the segmentation of results for “people like us” thereby sidestepping misleading aggregations.
This links to personalisation, but don’t expect all the traffic to be one way. One development we
are likely to see in the future is hotels, travel companies and airlines rating their customers,
especially those that cause trouble.
One trend that is likely to endure though is people posting reviews about bad experiences.
Unfortunately, it’s human nature that the people that tend to complain tell their friends about
15
their experience, while those that have an enjoyable experience often keep this to themselves.
One thing that we can be fairly confident of therefore is that bad experiences will become more
public in the future and complaints will travel faster and will consist not only of angry letters
but also of irate photographs and professionally edited video. The big difference will be that
travel companies will be able to intervene in real time and fix the problem on the spot rather
than be arbitrating after the event.
Micro-personalisation will also mean telling your travel company what kind of toiletries you
prefer, what kind of newspaper you’d like in the morning (physical newspapers – printed at the
resort - will still be available and will be especially welcome as a reconnection to past, more
leisurely habits, when people finally have enough time to read them).
We’ll also see personalisation around health and wellness with guests pre-ordering wheat
free, gluten free, diary free, vegetarian and vegan meals and selecting wellness rooms such as
the ‘stay well’ rooms already available at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas. These rooms feature
antimicrobial coatings on bathroom fixtures and TV remotes, filtered air and even vitamin C
infused shower water.
Apps and sensors will allow guests to ‘sample’ food and drinks to check that they are to their
taste and safe and apart from photographing their food and sending images to friends back
home (done already) might use augmented reality to find out more about where their food
has come from or how it’s been prepared. Augmented reality may be used outside to allow
sightseers to check what sights used to look like in the past (complete with sounds and smells
in some instances) or might look like in the future (see, for instance, postcardsofthefuture.
com).
This thought could be especially powerful in the area of ‘dark tourism’, where people travel
to the location of former battles and crimes against humanity. On the one level this means
battlefield visits (due to grow from 2014 onwards due to various anniversaries such as 1914
(outbreak of WW1), 1915 (Battle of Waterloo), 1916 (Battles of Jutland and the Somme) and so
on, but it also means visiting the scenes of genocide (part London Dungeon and part Imperial
War Museum). Perhaps some ‘roots tourism’ holidaymakers will even one day be able to
interact with their own ancestors using some form of holographic telepresence.
Technology such as RFID tags, smart dust or sensor motes on bath robes, towels and pillows will help
hotels to prevent theft of these items but will also allow housekeeping to count them and see how
many items are in the laundry. Of course, many guests will want to avoid technology altogether when
on holiday. They are tethered to various devices while at work, which will increasingly invade home
too, so some hotels will feature tech-free floors where rooms do not contain a phone, television or
Internet connection.
Such ‘tech-no’ rooms and Wi-Fi ‘cold spots’ would logically connect to various sustainability
initiatives too, although you can expect many hotels to move in the opposite direction, with
more business floors and further business services available to guests, even in low-cost family
hotels.
We’ve already seen towel and linen re-use programs, water efficient showers, energy efficient LED
lighting, recycled construction materials and local food ingredients, so why not go even greener by
limiting carbon emissions linked to the charging of electronic devices and to the use of the Internet.
This will be easiest in high-end eco-luxe resorts frequented by burnt out business types, but may also
appeal to husbands, wives and especially children who would like to interact physically with their
parents and spouses while on holiday (i.e. have their mental attention and their physical presence).
Other sustainability initiatives might include hotels that make a point of employing more local staff
(rather than flying them in from elsewhere), the use of locally harvested water and energy (especially
16
solar) and encouraging guests to pick or catch the ingredients for their own dinner (links both with
nature deficit disorder and the fact that few people nowadays have much of a clue as to where their
food actually comes from – in the USA, “locally sourced” can mean within 500 miles). Replacing
expensively imported foreign bottled water with filtered local tap water should grow in popularity,
although hotels in regions such as Africa will have to be especially careful not to use sources such as
bore water if this has an impact in local populations. Generally speaking, rainwater harvested from
hotel roofs will be far more sustainable than water from the ground or desalinated seawater.
As to what people will actually do whilst on holiday the list will continue to be varied. Some
stressed out people will want to do as little as possible and not think at all (hence a continued
and rising popularity of all-inclusive resorts where even meal choices are limited or nonexistent – another example of simplification and of paying more to get less). Other guests will
want to take eating and drinking to extremes with bars featuring huge selections of drinks and
restaurants catering to an increasingly hungry (and huge) clientele (cue extra-large meals, but
also extra large beds, baths and doorways).
One factor that does stand out is that an ageing UK (and European) population and this will
tend to create a shift in the kinds of activities that tourists engage in, with more people wanting
cultural and events-based tourism. This could also segueway into healthy food choices, onsite
medical facilities and various celebrity-based exercise activities. This happens already on
cruise ships, but we’d expect the idea to take root in hotels too. Perhaps celebrity sports
coaching on the Algarve, where celebrity sportsmen and sports women from the 1970s, 1980s
and 1990s coach people in their 70s, 80s and 90s with a view to keeping fit.
Ageing populations across Europe could have another impact too, with hotels increasingly
designing facilities so that older couples (and singles) do not have to mix with noisy families,
especially those will small children. Hotels with kids only and adult only pools already exist,
but we might see kid-free floors of accommodation, kids - free dining options and perhaps kid free flights to complete the package.
Ageing populations will also mean more senior-friendly food and easier access bedrooms and
bathrooms (e.g. low-rise and bungalow hotels). Improved accessibility to hotel facilities will
also appeal to disabled travellers and those travelling with small children.
Ageing tourists should also create a demand for familiarity in the sense of tourists going back
and reconnecting with places they have visited before (‘Take me back travel’), which in some
instances may be aligned to both roots tourism (where was I born/where did I grow up/get
married and so on) and Faith Tourism (where do ‘my people’ come from?). A more conservative
clientele might also mean more risk aversion in terms of where people go and what they do
once they are there, although this aversion to physical risk will be no means be limited to older
audiences. However, the opposite will also be true, with many people seeking out extreme
physical and sensory experiences.
17
Most hyped current hotels trends
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
Poolside and beachside private cabanas
Underwater speakers
Ultra-luxurious bed linen
Pillow menus
Poetry on your pillow instead of a chocolate
Faux butlers and speciality concierges
Peekaboo bathrooms
Aromatherapy and chromatherapy
Per pampering
Statement beds
Source: Travelandleisure.com(abridged)
We’ve mentioned the growth in tourist numbers, especially those coming from the BRIC
nations (Brazil, Russia, India and China) and the Next 11 nations (Nigeria, Turkey, Indonesia,
Bangladesh, Egypt, Iran, Mexico, Pakistan, Philippines, South Korea and Vietnam). Many of the
more distant nations will clearly holiday closer to home, but some will visit Europe, making
the annual scramble for sunbeds even more intense (pre-booking of sunbeds via mobile phone
perhaps?). Rising numbers of tourists will also mean that while last minute booking (via mobile
devices) will soar, so too will holidays planned a long time in advance to guarantee not only
the hotel and airline seats but admission to popular sights too. Indeed, it might not be too far
fetched to suggest that by 2030 some sights will only be seeable by booking years in advance,
which, of course, will open up the opportunity for travel operators to pre-book places and make
these available to loyal premium customers (i.e. a travel version of O2s Priority Moments).
Rising tourist numbers also means that back in Britain, we are about to have the holiday tables
turned on us. Rather than Britons visiting every nook and cranny of the world, we are set to
become one of the most visited nations. Perhaps in the future we will have to go away on
holiday at peak times simply to avoid the millions of people coming to Britain on holiday.
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Tourist sites that could be ‘advance
ticket only’ by 2030
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
Shwedagon Pagoda, Yangon, Myanmar
Petra World Heritage Site, Jordan
Last Great Iceberg, Weddell Sea
Grand Bazar, Istanbul
Machu Picchu, Peru
Forbidden City, Beijing
Great Wall of China at Mutianya
Remaining section of the Great Barrier Reef, Queensland
The Louvre, Paris
Eiffel Tower, Paris
Cathedral of Santiago de Compostela, Galicia
Temple of Karnak, Luxor
St. Peter’s Basilica, Vatican City
Taj Mahal, Agra
Angkor Wat, Cambodia
Of course, this, in turn, opens up the possibility of travel agents and operators facilitating the
rental of empty holidaymakers’ homes to inbound holidaymakers and more initiatives like
airbnb (currently facing legislative issues in the USA)
Anything else? Given that people can get nostalgic for places they’ve never been, we might see
more hotels opening shops selling not only foods from ‘back home’ but also foods and foods
in packaging from way back when. We’ve already got Vintage Vacations (formerly known as
camping and caravanning on the Isle of Wight) so why not provide the whole package?
This last thought taps into another, which is that as the world becomes faster, more virtual and
more complex what some guests will want is simplification and the ability to shut things off and
other people out.
The more technologically orientated and accelerated life becomes, there will be a growing
and significant desire for the opposite, which in the hotel context means simplicity and the
human touch. Again, paying more for less. It also means getting somewhere more slowly and
unwinding more once you are there. For example, how about ‘silent flights’ (no communications
or auditory media allowed) or ‘silent hotels’ run along Trappist lines.
At one end of the market we could see tech-free eco-resorts where guests hand over mobile
phones and other devices when they arrive to low-cost resorts where all you get is a tent under
the stars. Of course, some of these tents will have room service, but that’s ‘glamping’ and the
contradictory customer for you.
Of course, resorts don’t have to be far away if what you’re after is simply to get away. The artificial
beach next to the Seine in Paris proves that what some people want is sand regardless of where it is.
The ‘beach’ by the river Swan in Brisbane (Australia) and Camden ‘beach’ in London similarly prove that
a mini-break works, even if it’s only for a matter of hours.
19
Given that we’ve already got resorts with domed swimming pools and ‘islands’ and artificial snow
domes in Dubai, how long before someone creates a totally ‘authentic’ fake resort in a former
steel town in Eastern Europe with artificial sun, artificial sea, artificial sand, artificial birdsong and
frighteningly realistic prices?
As to how far such fake destinations could go it would seem the answer is quite a long way.
At the moment many people are intent on seeing the ‘real thing’ in the sense of experiencing the
Temples at Luxor or the canals of Venice. But evidence suggests that in many cases people don’t care
if well-known sights are faked. Examples of replica towns or replica sights might include parts of Las
Vegas, but increasingly it is within China that such destinations are found. For example, Thames Town
looks a bit like an old English town and attracts tens of thousands of visitors each year, but it is located
on the banks of the Yangtze River. There are even plans to build a cute replica of the historic Austrian
village of Hallstatt in Austria in Guangdong Province. Perhaps in the future we will see attempts at
recreating Machu Picchu in Spain, Venice outside Mumbai and the Hanging Gardens of Babylon in
Hanoi.
Back in the real world, kids will remain the centre of the holiday universe for many parents
(and travel companies) so additional attention will be paid to their needs whether they like it or
not. In some instances this will simply mean buckets and spades, but for others we’d expect
new ‘soft’ cultural and educational opportunities to evolve. On the one hand this might mean
a Dangerous Club for Boys and Girls, where normally sedentary and nature starved kids are
coaxed into activities that allow them to rediscover their physical selves (tree climbing, camp
building and so on). Fewer than ten per cent of kids play in wild places nowadays; down from
50 per cent a generation ago, while the roaming radius for kids has declined by 90 per cent
in just one generation. Perhaps resorts will teach, or reteach, the 3Rs through interactions
with historical sites. ‘Edutourism’ could also include adults and whole families signing up for
various volunteering projects in foreign countries, even if 2 days of being good ends up being
twinned with 5 days being a sloth.
What hotel guests want to know
(things leisure travellers ask about)
1.Restaurants
2.Museums
3.Monuments
4.
Cafes and bars
Source: wihphotel.com
20
The need to relax on holiday is also likely to result in further growth of spas, which in some
instances could be modelled on the Victorian spa resorts of yesteryear. The search for sensory
experiences is an established trend outside of travel and is set to grow in it as well. Finnair,
for example, have what is essentially a spa at Helsinki airport that features no less that five
different types of sauna. Add a need for serious medical monitoring equipment and a proper
nights sleep and we could see some interesting hybrid hotels develop that are part traditional
hotel, part hospital and part sanctuary. Obviously, the growing aesthetic sophistication and
design literacy of travellers means that these won’t look anything like a hospital.
Finally, a word about pricing. The spending power of the new global rich means that luxury
hotels will become more luxurious and commonplace. At the other end of the price spectrum,
budget hotels should also grow, especially “capsule hotels”. The Japanese first thought of
the idea of capsule hotels, small rooms with only a bed and tiny television, for travellers on a
budget. Then Heathrow and Gatwick airports in the UK opened cabins for hire by the hour with
a minimum booking of four hours. As one manager said, “Once you take the window out you can
just pack them in”. There’s a good reason for this development. Many cities and popular resorts
are under-served with budget hotels.
It will be interesting to see whether travellers are willing to give up their windows onto the
world. People may more easily accept a pod at an airport, when they are most likely to be
exhausted and desperate to lie down. There’s not much to look at there. Some may find the
idea of a windowless “pod” claustrophobic, but many budget hotels don’t have much of a view
anyway and if all you want is to lie on a beach, eat, drink and fall asleep then they will make
perfect sense for some. Some cities in the USA are already relaxing their legislation around
limited build sizes for homes to as little as 20 square metres. So we will see micro-hotels
becoming commonplace, with modular rooms and all facilities concealed in walls, ceilings and
floors.
21
1.7
What else we’ll do on holiday
The desire to see things that others haven’t (or can’t) should create an interesting premium niche for
what might be called Behind Close Doors discovery. This is not simply visiting a country that your
friends haven’t, but seeing things people can’t usually see. For example, having a meal with a local
family, attending a local school or workplace, seeing a local farm or vineyard or being allowed into
a building that is usually closed or reserved for members. This will be a rare growth area for travel
operators, as many people will still be reluctant to rely on the randomness and risk of uncontrolled
peer-to-peer activity.
Another thing that links directly with this is the thought of doing something useful or good
whilst on holiday. A whole week spent digging a well in a remote part of Africa won’t appeal to
many, but hotels, tour operators or websites that connect holidaymakers with skills to share
for a day or two might. Twinning something raw or authentic with a luxurious week on a beach
might work in other ways too. Combining camping out and cooking for yourself with pampering
in a five-star hotel could be an example of future Fusion Holidays.
Beyond such experiences there’s always shopping. In some cases this will mean bagging a designer
label bargain, often duty free, whereas in others it will mean looking for local souvenirs to prove to
yourself and the people back home that you have indeed been away. In the future this may mean
using a mobile device to determine whether the price being asked is really such a bargain or whether
something sold as ‘antique’ really is (One other useful bit of technology – a bargaining app that
haggles with the seller – in any language - until a fair price is agreed).
22
1.8
What we’ll bring home
If three major needs in relation to holidays are to see somewhere different, relax and reconnect then
a fourth might be the need to remind others and ourselves where we have been. The creation of
memories and story telling around events is a fundamental human need and various objects and
images can be used to facilitate this. One of the oldest customs in relation to travel has been the
picture postcard, although this seems to be dying out in favour of instant updates to social networks
such as Facebook and the streaming of events on micro-blogging sites such as Twitter. Nevertheless,
we would expect physical postcards to endure a little while longer, especially with older holidaymakers
in traditional resorts.
Another item of the way out, or so it seems, is the physical photo album. Not only do albums
increasingly exist online (no more post holiday family slide nights) they are increasingly narrow in their
subject matter. Selfies (photographs taken by a photographer of themselves) now account for 30% of
all pictures taken by 18-24-year-olds in the UK, so even if the photo album does survive, they will be
thinner, or at least less broad, in the future. Perhaps what will happen is that, realising this, individuals
will crowd-source images of themselves with others or buy library images of sights much like we used
to buy Viewmaster slides.
Things people currently bring back from holiday
Key-rings and fridge magnets
1.
2.T-shirts
3.Postcards
4.Alcohol
5.
Sea shells
Source: Viewpoints magazine
23
Part 2
Holiday Details
“Wherever you go, be sure to take yourself with you.”
Anon
24
2.1
Booking
Part 2 Holiday Details
How will people research and book holidays in the future? One suspects that the answer to
this question will be in principle much the same as they already do. People will look at travel
“brochures”; listen to the opinions of others they trust (social networks and blogs, but also
travel agents ‘super-recommenders’ in social networks). They will also consult, the opinions of
specialist travel writers, especially those writing in physical or digital newspapers, magazines
and specialist travel publications.
But the way in which we will do all of this will change. The demise of the physical travel agent
has been foretold for some time. 52 per cent of UK consumers, for example, claim that holidays
are better value for money when booked online, while 40 per cent like being able to personalise
their own holiday on the internet. A staggering 14% even say that they’ll book with someone
they’ve never heard of online if it’s cheap enough.
However, while many people prefer the cost and convenience of booking things themselves,
for others it is monumentally stressful and time consuming. Furthermore, for holidaymakers
suffering from Too Much Information and Too Much Choice, for people that don’t know what
they want or for those looking for expert and specialist travel knowledge, the travel agent will
still have a significant role to play.
The market will almost certainly split between travel superstores in the manner or Nike or Apple and
small, niche specialists.
In 2030 we’ll see fully interactive “try before you fly” experience superstores, where customers will
be able to vicariously experiment with a complete virtual holiday. So we’ll be able to walk round the
resort, have a 360 degree tour of the different room types, remotely test the bed softness, talk to
the reps on 3-D Skype and go into a simulator booth that will demonstrate what the temperature
and humidity of Vietnam in high summer feels like or experience the effects of reduced oxygen
when walking up to Machu Picchu. Smaller satellite locations would have a similar offer on a more
concentrated scale. At the other end of the spectrum, online and physical specialists will address
emergent geographies, and individual audiences such as older travellers, adventure holidays, niche
cultural interests.
On the subject of holiday brochures it is perhaps worth noting that they shouldn’t still exist. Surely we
should all be going on line or browsing hotels on an iPad? The reason this isn’t happening is possibly
the same reason that magazines are still flourishing despite the well-known woes of the newspaper
industry. Holiday brochures, like magazines, do not tend to deal with hard news. Both tend to deal with
lifestyles and dreams and these have a much longer shelf life
Even if we still want the in hand experience of the brochure, virtually all 2030 bookings will
be done online. Just as with Ebay now, people will be able to bid for holidays – competing with
other travellers, leaving it to the last minute to swoop for a followed favourite.
As for whether bookings are made well in advance or at the last minute (see previous point
about resorts becoming full due to the rapid growth in numbers) both will be true and will
be heavily influenced by such mundane factors as school holidays (whether or not they are
changed to allow more flexibility), the economy (whether people have enough money to travel)
and work (whether or not an increasingly project-based and freelance workforce has the ability
to plan ahead).
With both though, it would appear that planning will become more continuous, with customers using
the web and social media to constantly adjust plans and iterineries. As such supply chains will need to
25
become more responsible to such flexibility – a point that travel operators could leverage by being
as helpful as possible, possibly providing ‘nurturing’ customer service to smooth out any last minute
difficulties and changes of both heart and mind.
One thing that does appear somewhat strange is that while airlines and hotels have operated
various loyalty schemes, the idea seems relatively new among travel operators and many
customers are not aware of such schemes. In the future micro-personalisation means that
such ideas will expand further, possibly allowing holidaymakers to stock their hotel mini-bar in
advance, choose the toiletries for their bathroom or order their meals in advance.
Another warmly received development might be holidays that you can barter online. Given enough
warning, most holiday companies will grant customers a full refund if for some reason (work, health
etc.) they can no longer go away. However, it is the nature of emergencies that they happen without
warning, so perhaps a holiday company could set up a website where customers that are no longer
able to go away can auction their holiday online or exchange it for another. Other missing bits of the
jigsaw might be ‘try before you buy stores’ (referred to earlier) where customers could try out the
airline seats and even the food, music and movies. Replicating the travel experience isn’t easy, but
even if all an agent does is serve a selection of national dishes from top destinations or organise 2030
Skype equivalent calls with hotel managers it would surely help.
We can also predict a future where peer-to-peer contact and recommendations are increasingly
important – before, during and after holidays. Members of forums on anything from football to
crocheting are already seeking the advice of what they see as like minded people on destinations and
what to do there, as more reliable and unbiased opinions than those found on specialist travel sites.
Services such as couchsurfing, airbnb and wimdu tap into the desire of people, especially younger
travellers, to not only save money, but also get a more authentic experience locally.
In some respects it’s the “paying guest” model with a digital overlay. But as these younger
travellers get older, we can expect to see this type of behaviour normalised for older
holidaymakers and families, who may currently see this as too risky. And where there’s a
market there’s always a potential segmentation, so expect to see different lifestyles, interest
groups served at a micro level as this type of service matures.
Car hire companies – already lagging in customer satisfaction behind estate agents and politicians will
have to brace themselves for the further expansion of peer-to-peer travel. Whether it’s hitching a ride,
car sharing or renting someone else’s, the alternatives to traditional hire companies are growing with
services such as Relayrides and Flightcar, which rents out your car from the airport cars while you are
travelling or Lyft, an on-demand car sharing service. Many of these services are aimed at commuters
and single destinations, but the automotive version of the Boris Bike at holiday venues can’t be far
away.
Travellers to emerging destinations will have to become used to being mobbed by random
people selling their expertise as local guides. Often taking in important sites such as the
guide’s brother’s carpet shop en route. So we can expect to see an increase in digitally sourced
personal guides. Locals who are in the know, who have expertise in specific interest areas who
can give you a unique insight into your destination, and who will be assessed by their peer-topeer ratings.
The only thing older than yesterday’s newspapers is yesterday’s guidebooks (sales down 46% in the UK
between 2006 and 2012). The disappointed shock at finding that little tavern you remember from 20
years ago now trading as a karaoke bar is one that many of us have experienced.
Rather than online aggregated reviews which date quickly, we can expect in the future to find daily
26
ratings of places, so we can be sure not only that they’re still there, but that they didn’t poison anyone
this week. People will post pictures of their meals with comments as a matter of course – so you will
know when today’s special looks uncannily like yesterday’s.
What these trends deliver is immediacy and personalisation. A recent Nielsen survey of mobile
travel searchers showed that a third wanted to complete the transaction that day. And as digital
immediacy grows, our attention spans become shorter and the “Just in time” quality of our
lifestyles increases, we can only anticipate this becoming accentuated by 2030.
But being connected at a personal level is also a growing trend. No matter how cocooned our
lives become, there is always a desire to see behind closed doors or outside the compound,
depending on how you view it. People want to come back from holidays with memories, but also
stories. And getting up close and personal with the environment and the people who live there
is a need that is unlikely to go away.
27
2.2
Paying
If anyone is still paying for any aspect of his or her summer holiday with a cheque in 2030 we’d be
surprised. Paper forms of payment seem to be disappearing faster than the Maldives. A few die hard
coin and paper note hoarders will no doubt survive, but most will be paying with plastic (Credit and
debit cards), direct electronic debits or some form of virtual or private currency. Once on holiday the
same pattern is likely to persist, unless travellers go totally off the beaten tourist trail. Whether or not
the Euro will still exist in 2030 is unclear, but if you are a betting type it might be worth digging out
a few old Drachma from the ‘Man Drawer’ and placing a bet that it won’t – certainly not in its current
form.
Something far more certain is that an increasing number of payments, especially for cheaper holidays
or shorter breaks, will be made via mobile devices, especially phones. The idea of turning a phone
into a wallet has been around for a while, but by the end of the current decade we’d expect significant
steps in this direction, especially with the development of Near Field Communications (NFC).
In 2013 a patent was filed by an American consortium developing a technology whereby a mobile
device senses a gesture performed by the user with the mobile device. It modifies it accordingly to flag
an item for review during the transaction, cancel the transaction, receive a subtotal for parts of it, and
so on. So going further into the future, even micro-payments and pre-pay might appear old fashioned
if we end up having our life savings (or debts) embedded in our bodies with the ability to move money
in and out with a physical handshake.
One final thought about money. In some ways the travel industry is very vulnerable to shortterms shocks, but in another it is extraordinarily resilient.
The economy and the amount of disposable income in peoples’ pockets is clearly a major factor
impacting whether or not and how people go on holiday.
However, the fact of the matter is that when times are good people have the money to spend
and when times are bad economically there is in a sense even more need to escape.
28
2.3
Insurance
It seems mundane and travel insurance only seems to be necessarily when something goes
wrong, which is why many people prefer not to think about it. (Currently a quarter of Britons
travel abroad knowingly or unknowingly without insurance). Insurance, like many other
industries, is undergoing rapid change, not least due to the Internet. Price comparison
websites will continue to be influential, although the convenience of booking everything at once
should not be underestimated. What we are likely to see, however, is more holidays-makers
buying insurance ‘on the fly’, which not only means via a mobile device sitting in departures, but
also halfway up a mountain when the conditions turn nasty.
For example, if you suddenly fancy some off-piste skiing, but the snow conditions look a bit
risky, in the future you will be able to instantly buy cover whilst sitting on a ski lift. If you are
using a smart mobile the insurance company will be able to pinpoint your exact location and
local snow conditions and assess your risk. You will be able to pay via your mobile and a digital
cover note will be issued within minutes for the duration of your descent.
Holiday makers of the future might also wish to consider personal weather insurance (you get paid if
it rains essentially) or perhaps indulge in a bit of holiday spread betting (you pay lots if the weather is
glorious but very little if it’s nasty). Other emergent forms of insurance might include not only digital
device cover, but insurance against loss for things that only exist in cyberspace (digital photographs,
digital music collections and so on).
29
2.4
Packing the suitcase
Assuming that airlines still carry suitcases in the future, it’s reasonable to assume that what they
contain will be much the same as now, although overall size and weight may change due to fuel costs
and bag charging. As we’re already stated, cases may contain GPS so that they can be tracked in real
time by airports, airlines and passengers. Before this occurs an obvious first step would be more
distinctive labelling so that passengers do not mistake one large black Samsonite suitcase for another.
Incredibly, 26 million checked bags go missing worldwide every year and whilst simple graphics
won’t stop this, at least some form of reasonably unique luggage identifier could be a step in the right
direction.
30
2.5
Postcard from the Future
(A Day in the Life in 2030)
It’s better to travel hopefully than to arrive – or so they say. But what about the return home?
Rather than stumbling about the long-term airport car park in the dark, looking for our cars,
there is a strong possibility that our self driving vehicle – a significant development on Google’s
driverless car of 2013, will have sensed our return, tracked our progress through arrivals and
be sitting in the car collection pound outside. It will have devised the best route home for us
and we can doze as it avoids the snarl up on the M25.
Unlike today when we don’t know whether we will return to a house without electricity or the
back door missing, telemetric services will have allowed us to monitor our homes while we’ve
been gone and the pre-ordered bag of grocery essentials will have been placed in the postal
safe in our front garden or hallway. Unlike today there will be no pile of letters on the other side
of the door because The Royal Mail suspended physical letter deliveries in 2022. Instead any
actual post will have been sorted, automatically scanned and be available to download (if we
haven’t done so already).
More cheeringly, our delightfully old fashioned photographic album will be waiting for us when
we get home, compiled and ordered on the flight back and delivered by courier in three hours.
(Since the “Cloudburst” of 2019, when a lot of people permanently lost their online photographs
there has been a boom in physical records of our digital data).
Of course we still have our digital pictures to browse through, and thanks to facial recognition
software originally developed by the FBI, but now available on freeware, we can also search for
ourselves on anyone else’s photographs in the world as well.
Opinion divides on whether post holiday depression exists, but there is plenty of circumstantial
evidence that it might. Chris Danforth at the University of Vermont has made a study of
tweets that shows that “expressed happiness increases logarithmically with distance from
an individual’s location”. Dr. Strauss – Blasche from the University of Vienna has dubbed it
“contrast effect” – the shock of confronting stress after a time of relaxation.
Holiday companies will be increasingly alert to this and a pack of herbal decompression and relaxation
therapies to help us re-adjust to the real world will be waiting for us. While we’ve been away we’ve
given the holiday company controlled access to our devices. They know where we’ve been, what we’ve
done and how much we’ve enjoyed it.
As well as being part of their big data collection to customise and improve the experiences of
people next going to our resort (including the need to wary of the deadly jellyfish infestation at
the beach down the coast), it means that our next holiday can be designed for us, based on all
of our aggregated preferences.
The virtual brochure will be there for us, as a hologram with us in it, to view as soon as we’ve
unpacked. Hang on – we didn’t take any luggage, did we?
31
Part 3
Holiday Extras & Excursions
32
3.1
Seven Trends for the Future
of Holidays and Travel
Part 3 Holiday Extras & Excursions
1. Mobile me
In future everyone’s life will be carried in the palm of the hand. Access to information will define you
and personal technology will be an ever-present companion – at home and on holiday. Wearable
computing will be the norm. Even more than today we will be “always on”, with technology providing
a “sixth sense” in our lives, allowing us to operate as virtual beings. We will use mobile phones (which
almost certainly will not look like the phones of today) to communicate, to inform ourselves in real
time about the world around us, to document the minutiae of our lives and above all to manage our
finances. Ultimately, micro-technology will be embedded in our bodies.
2. Personalisation
The personalisation of everything will be the norm. The more of our data we submit to
organisations, the more they will be able to tailor to our needs – whether they are ones we
know about or not. The availability of 3-D printing, allied to higher level personal computing will
allow us to be designers, creators and curators of our possessions and our surroundings. From
mass production, to mass customisation, to micro-personalisation we will be able to express
our individuality in every facet of our lives and this will include our holidays.
3. Flexibility
As our lives become more unpredictable, the more we will demand flexibility in every aspect
of our lives – starting with the fundamentals. Our careers will be increasingly portfolio as we
assemble a collage of skills. We may have returned to being a rental economy in our housing.
We will see modular cars as the norm (and probably with short-term lease, rather than buy).
As our working hours become more erratic (possibly with the expansion of “zero hours” into
middle class life), we will become short-termist in our planning and this will include holidays.
We will expect to be able to change our minds up to the last minute, combine disparate
destinations, alter our party make up and design, barter and bargain for deals. The challenge
for companies will be to not just respond, but embed flexibility into every aspect of their offers.
4. Premiumisation
As we aspire to express our individuality, we can anticipate a future where premiumisation exists in
every market. Having been told for years “you’re worth it”, we will come to believe it. Information
accessibility will give us the tools to research and demand constant product and service improvements.
Companies will have to be more transparent in every aspect of their offers and we will pick and choose
the modular make–up of our lives. In our holidays we will want the option to upgrade everything.
Exclusivity will be sought at every stage of the process. We will not just pay for quality, but also for
scarcity and rareness. Time, space, solitude will be aspirational as we live in a more crowded and full on
world.
5. (Re)connection
In the future we will be alone together. We will live fragmented lives in a digitally joined up world.
Nuclear families will have become atomised, we will be worried about work/life balance and we will
struggle to distinguish between both. While some will thrive on stress, it will begin to be seen as a killer
disease. Holidays will, as never before, offer an antidote to this for many. A rare opportunity for real
time, rather than virtual, connection with friends, family and ourselves.
33
6. Discovery
While sea, sun and sand will continue to be the main ingredient in many holidays, a growing
number of us will have a nagging desire for more significant experiences. We may want to
discover unfamiliar countries, get a fleeting feeling of being an insider and part of a different
type of community. Adventure with a small or large ‘a’ will be part of the mix of future holidays.
For families in particular, exploration will have to be safe and from trusted providers. We may
be looking to expand our mental horizons, absorb culture and learning. Agri-tourism and ecotourism are just a couple of examples. Increasingly we will want to return from our holidays as
different people – more experienced, more rounded – and not just in the waistline.
7. Simplification
If we think we are subject to information overload now, the future has the potential to boggle
our minds. Services that make our lives easier, that know or can intuit our preferences and
take the burden of decision making from us will be prized. Brands that we can trust to know
us better than we know ourselves, that act as avatars and filters, will be rewarded with loyalty
and bonding. We will seek out experiences that are pared down to their bare essentials as
an antidote to complexity. A new cult of minimalism. In holidays, access to peace will be as
precious to some as access to premium services. We may be prepared to pay to be deprived
of technology, just to have a few hours away from screens in techno – retreats. Escape will
be rare, hard to find and either extremely primitive and cheap, or extremely cushioned and
expensive.
34
3.2
Heavy Turbulence
(some disaster scenarios)
As we noted in our introduction, despite SARS, Asian Flu, 9/11, oil price shocks, climate
change concerns and the eruption of Eyjafjallajökull, the leisure travel industry has remained
remarkably resilient. Nevertheless, there are a number of imaginable scenarios where the
industry could be more seriously damaged.
These might include the following;
1. The oil price reaches $200+
We can confidently predict that the price of oil will go up and down in the future and oil price
volatility may very well be a feature. However, if the price were to hit $200 and stay there for an
extended period this could have catastrophic effects on the airline industry in particular. Over
time behaviour would change and alternatives would be found (therefore reducing the price),
but an extended ‘no fly’ attitude on behalf of the general public could significantly change the
global travel landscape.
2. Terrorism redefined
Another 9/11-style attack is followed by a continued series of strikes on high profile holiday or
travel targets killing thousands, even hundreds of thousands, of holidaymakers. Targets might
include airlines and hotels, but also cruise ships and high-density tourist attractions. Weapons
might include chemical or biological elements as well are more conventional explosives and
firearms.
3. A super eruption
Forget Eyjafjallajökull, what would happen if a volcano the size of Yellowstone went off? The
result could be something akin to the ‘Year without summer’ (1815) where the whole of the US
(and quite possibly the rest of the world) was effectively shut down for a considerable period of
time.
4. Climate Change much worse than expected
What if weather events become so extreme or unpredictable that people effectively resigned
themselves to staying close to home or not investing large sums in holidays that can be ruined
at the last minute by the weather? Moreover, what happens if a single climate related event
fundamentally changed customer behaviour in relation to holidays and travel?
5. War & political instability
Putting the thought of WW3 aside, some of our best-loved long-haul holiday destinations are
politically fragile. Regions that are, or soon could be, off-limits to holidaymakers include parts
of Africa, parts of the Middle East and parts of Asia. Increasing geo-political instability could
significantly redraw the tourist map, especially for older or less adventurous travellers.
35
10 holiday ideas for the future
1. Your mobile is your passport
It’s also your boarding pass, immigration forms etc.
2. Suncream for oldies
There is sun cream for all skin types, sun conditions
and even babies. Why not sun cream for those aged
65+? It changes colour when you’ve had enough sun.
3. Digital deckchairs
Built in sleep/sun exposure timer, sensors and GPS so
it knows when it’s not being used (and holiday makers
can locate it using a smart phone), sockets to charge
mobile devices. Future versions could change shape
according to body size and weight.
4. Augmented reality sunglasses
Tells you who other people on the beach are using facial
recognition. Can also overlay historical facts about
places; show reviews for local cafes and bars, display
maps and so on.
5. Tech-free tourism
Zoned ‘No Internet’ hotel floors (the joys of
disconnection). Older hotels could also be sold to
customers on the basis that they do NOT have Internet
or Wi-Fi connections.
7. Weather insurance for individual
holidaymakers
“Spread bet” insurance - you pay for a policy and receive a
payment for each day it rains or alternatively pay extra on
your premium when the sun shines
8. Tourist Toggs
You fly without check-in bags, but your clothes are already
at the resort – either they are sent in advance or you select
what you need online and the hotel buys them for you. At
the end of the holiday you can either have them washed
and sent home (again no checked baggage) or donate them
to local people in need.
9. Pay per kilo flights
The airline ticket cost depends on the combined weight of
you and your luggage – another incentive to get serious
about that pre-holiday diet.
10. Luggage with GPS fitted
So it/you knows where it is (no more lost bags). Can
include a self-weighing facility and motorised wheels and
guidance system so it can follow you around the airport
and send an SOS to your mobile if you board a plane to
Hawaii and it’s in a hold bound for Hanoi.
6. Holiday finance
Loans and easy payment terms for holidays. We take
out secured loans for home improvements and cars,
why not for our leisure?
36
Part 4
Holiday Reading
4.1. Reports
4.3. Newspaper and magazine articles
ITB World Travel Trends Report, 2013
UNWTO Tourism Highlights, 2013
UNWTO, Tourism Towards 2030, Global Overview
ABTA Travel Trends, 2013
IATA, The Future of Airline Distribution:
A Look Ahead to 2017
Visit Europe, European Tourism 2013, trends & prospects
Visit England 2013 holiday trends
WEF, Travel and Transportation 2025
– Four scenarios imagined
WEF, Connected World, 2013
Thomson Holidays, Sustainable Holiday
Futures Report, 2011
JWT Intelligence, Travel: Changing Course, 2013
Amadeus, The Rail Journey to 2020.
Steria, The Future Report, 2012
Intercontinental Hotels Group, The New Kinship Economy,
2013
Euro RSCG Worldwide, The Future of Travel, 2009/10
Mediterranean Prospects: Tourism in the Mediterranean:
Scenarios up to 2030
Forum for the Future, Tourism 2023
Global Futures & Foresight, The Future of Travel & Tourism in the Middle East
High Life Magazine (undated), What’s the
Future of Travel?
Travel and Leisure, Most important Travel
trends of 2013, January 2013
USA Today, 5 Trends to look for in travel this
year, 8 January 2013
Guardian Newspaper, The rise of the ‘free’
city tour, 12 June 2013
Sydney Morning Herald, The Future of air travel? The
plane with ‘clip on’ cabins, 12 June 2013
Popular Science, The Jets of the Future, April 2012,
Gourmet magazine, Airplane food of the future, 1 April
2012.
4.4 Books
Voyages & Visions: Towards a cultural history of travel, J.
Elsner & J.P. Rubies
The History of Tourism: Thomas Cook and the origins of
Leisure travel
by Paul Smith
Future Tourism: Political, Social and Economic Challenges
by J. Leigh, C. Webster and S. Ivanov (Eds)
2050: Tomorrow’s Tourism by Ian Yeoman
4.2 Websites
www.theairportofthefuture.com
www.futuretravelexperience.com
www.tnooz.com
www.aboutourism.com
www.insights.org.uk
Yahoo Travel
(uk.travel.yahoo.com/ideas/sleep-holidays.html)
www.seatplans.com
(future of economy class food)
www.Businessinsider.com
(Vacuum loop transport system)
Futures House, London, January 2014
www.futureshouse.eu
37

here - Futures House

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