Holger Dalkmann – Director EMBARQ

Thematic Working Session:
Planning Mobility
Future Megacities in Action
Wednesday, May 15 2013; 10:30am-12:30pm
Holger Dalkmann
Director, EMBARQ
World Resources Institute
CONGESTION
CLIMATE CHANGE
42% of respondents worldwide say stress
level has increased due to traffic (IBM)
Transport accounts for one-quarter of
global CO2 emissions
Traffic fatalities lead to 1.2 million deaths
every year and many more injuries
Physical inactivity causes 1 in 10 deaths
worldwide, on par with smoking
ROAD SAFETY
PUBLIC HEALTH
Global Trend: Urbanization
Percentage of urban population, 1960
Source: Growth rates of urban agglomerations 1960-2025 (UNDESA, 2011)
Percentage of urban population, 1980
Source: Growth rates of urban agglomerations 1960-2025 (UNDESA, 2011)
Percentage of urban population, 2011
Source: Growth rates of urban agglomerations 1960-2025 (UNDESA, 2011)
Percentage of urban population, 2025
Source: Growth rates of urban agglomerations 1960-2025 (UNDESA, 2011)
75% of the World’s Megacities are in Low Elevation
Coastal Zones
Populations Threated by Sea-level Rise (World Bank, 2010)
Global Trend: Worldwide Road Energy Use Increases
by 76% by 2050 in Business as Usual Scenario
3,000
Annual Road Energy Consumption Worldwide, IEA Projections
(millions of oil ton equivalent)
2,812
2,502
2,500
2,181
2,031
1,872
2,000
1,698 1,698
1,706
1,628
1,595
2030 2030
(2DS) (4DS)
2040 2040
(2DS) (4DS)
2050 2050
(2DS) (4DS)
1,500 1,293 1,293
1,000
500
0
2000 2000
(2DS) (4DS)
2010 2010
(2DS) (4DS)
2020 2020
(2DS) (4DS)
2DS: 2 Degree Celsius Scenario
4DS; 4 Degrees Celsius Scenario (Business as Usual)
Source: International Energy Agency, Energy Technology Perspectives 2012
Need for a Paradigm Shift to Sustainability
Increasing private ownership of vehicles
Increasing rate of traffic fatalities and injuries
Urbanization
Vulnerability to climate change
Rising inactivity leading to health concerns
Sustainable Transport
Ahmedabad, India
3.3 million 1992
6.4 million 2011
Two Options: Sustainable or Unsustainable?
Today
Automobility
Ahmedabad, India
Area: 6,484 sq. km
Emissions: 12.32m tCO2/yr
Traffic Fatalities: 5,232/yr
Population: 5.4m
Trips: 5.6m/yr
Year 2041
Population: 13.2m
Trips: 39.8m/yr
• Same population
• Same number of trips
• Very different outcomes
Sustainable Transport
Area: 50% reduction
Emissions: 84% reduction
Traffic Fatalities: 74% reduction
Transport Infrastructure Investment Estimates
0.6 Billion
USD/Year
0.4 Billion
USD/Year
$10 Million
2030
0.8 Billion
USD/Year
1.2 Billion
USD/Year
Source: CEPT University, 12FYP, 2011
Rethinking Urban Development: Mobility
Compact
development
with mixed-uses
Ground Floor for
commercial use
Public Spaces
Non-motorized
mobility
Public Transport
Parking & car
management
Community
Participation
Rethinking Urban Development: Mobility
Compact
development
with mixed-uses
Ground Floor for
commercial use
Public Spaces
Non-motorized
mobility
Public Transport
Parking & car
management
Community
Participation
Tracking BRT Adoption: Expanding Mobility
Around the World
175
2010: Guangzhou, Hefei, Yancheng, Zaozhuang – China;
Jaipur - India; Bangkok - Thailand; East London Transit –
UK; Barranquilla, Bucaramanga – Colombia;
Ecatepec- Mexico; Lima - Peru; Brampton – Canada; …
20
150
New Cities
125
15
100
5
75
2000: Bogotá
(TransMilenio),
Colombia
10
50
1974: Curitiba
25
0
Cumulative Number of Cities
25
0
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
source: BRTdata.org, April, 2013
BRT Use is Expanding Around the World
In operation
(156 cities)
In expansion
(23 cities)
Planned / in
construction
(83 cities)
source: EMBARQ, 2011
Bus Rapid Transport in Mexico
Metrobus in Numbers
4 lines, 95 km in 7 years, 370 buses, 850,000 people/day
Replaced 1,383 obsolete, highly polluting microbuses
17% of the users come from individual motor vehicles
110,000 tons of CO2 per year reduced (total 385,000 tons
reduced so far)
40% travel time savings per user (180,000 hours per year)
35% reduction in exposure to particulate matter (PM 2.5)
2003
Length: 26 km
Fleet: 61
237,000
pp/day
2005
Length: 46 km
Fleet: 156
497,000
pp/day
2008
Length: 55 km
Fleet: 216
552,000
pp/day
2011
2009
Length: 92 km
Fleet: 330
814,000
pp/day
Length: 128 km
Fleet: 472
1,114,000
pp/day
Evolution of BRT system in Mexico
2012
Length: 156 km
Fleet: 526
1,164,000
pp/day
Metrobus Line 4: Improving Mobility
in a Historical City Center
Adapting to its Historical Surroundings
Adapted to the
characteristics of the
historic district
Operates in areas
with narrow streets,
buildings of historic,
cultural, tourist, and
commercial value
Interacts with areas
with high volumes of
pedestrians
Improving Mobility through Operations
Recovering streets
and sidewalks
Safety elements
Low platform
terminals
Low floor buses
with medium
capacity units
Curbside boarding
and aligning
On-Board fare
validation
Before
After
Streamlining the User Experience
Security cameras on board
and user information
screens
Fare sales and recharge
only at terminals and
external points
Totem design of Bus stops
for Historic Center
protected areas
Accessibility for people
with different mobility
needs
Integrated Transport Systems: Mexico City
Suburban rail system
Inter-urban transport
companies
Airport
BRT system
Metro system
Bike system
Mass Transit Program (PROTRAM)
In 2009, the Mexican Federal government instituted the
Public Transportation Federal Support Program
(PROTRAM) to fund public transportation improvements
BRT systems are being promoted in 35 cities in Mexico with
the support from the Federal government
PROTRAM funds mass transit systems in cities with
population over 500 thousand people
BRT systems in Mexico
35 BRT Systems:
o
o
5 under construction
30 under review / identification
BRT Mexicali
BRT Cd Juarez
BRT Chihuahua
EMBARQ provides
technical advisory for
the implementation of
BRT Ecovía Monterrey
BRT systems:
BRT Monterrey
BRT Tijuana
1) identification
2) Preparation
Tren Sub 1 Cuautitlán
3) Evaluation
BRT Chimalhuacán
4) Implementation
5) Monitoring
Metrobus Line
5
BRT Tampico
BRT Pachuca
BRT Cd. Azteca - Tecámac
BRT León
BRT Lechería
BRT Toluca
Tren LRT Guadalajara
BRT Puebla
Under construction
BT Puebla 2
BRT Villahermosa
Authorized
Under review
BRT Acapulco
BRT Oaxaca
Challenges in the planning and implementation process
Opposition from private bus operators to bus transport
improvements, including BRT systems
Institutional capacity to design and implement BRT projects
Despite rapid implementation, BRT systems are influenced
by the time of political appointments
Scrapping buses only in a limited number of cases; in most
cases “replaced buses” are reallocated in other areas
Limited strategies to socialize the project to the public both
before and after completion
Delhi, India
Curitiba, Colombia
Flickr user: mariordo59
Guangzhou, China
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Rethinking Urban Development: Mobility
Compact
development
with mixed-uses
Ground Floor for
commercial use
Public Spaces
Non-motorized
mobility
Public Transport
Parking & car
management
Community
Participation
Holger Dalkmann
[email protected]
www.embarq.org
www.thecityfix.com
Thank you