SHELL LKW-STUDIE SUMMARY SHELL GOODS VEHICLE STUDY

1
It presents important facts related to goods transport by road,
examines current and future trends, and shows perspectives
for long-term developments in goods transport by road. The
Goods Vehicle Study concentrates on developments in
Germany, but at some points it also gives insights into global
and European developments.
SHELL LKW-STUDIE
Fakten, Trends und Perspektiven
im Straßengüterverkehr bis 2030
The main focus of the first Shell Goods Vehicle Study is the
motorised vehicles used in carriage of goods by road
(“goods vehicles”). The goal of the study is to provide
information on the technological perspectives of goods
vehicles. And it gives an appraisal of the technological
potentials of propulsion, vehicle and fuel technologies which
are available today or in the mid-term future, and their
possible impact on environmental, energy and climate goals.
The key findings of the Shell Goods Vehicle Study up to 2030
are summarised in the following sections.
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Shell has been working for many years on scenarios and
questions of the future of mobility. The company has been
observing and analysing auto-mobility in Germany since
1958, and published the 25th Shell Passenger Car Scenarios
in 2009, covering the period up to 2030. Shell is now
publishing the first Shell Goods Vehicle Study, in cooperation
with the Institute of Transport Research of the German
Aerospace Centre (DLR).
Research into passenger car trends is important for forecasting
future developments in the whole of the transport sector.
Passenger cars are by far the dominant element among all
modes of transport, but the transport of goods by road has
developed with exceptional dynamism in the past two
decades, and is likely to continue doing so. As with passenger cars, it is becoming increasingly urgent to identify the
trends in goods vehicles – what will the future bring? And how
can sustainability of goods vehicles be improved in terms of
environmental protection, energy efficiency and combating
climate change? It seems that alternative technologies are
much less developed in goods vehicles, and much further
away from market launch than in the passenger car sector. At
any rate, there is no silver bullet in sight for goods vehicles.
That makes it all the more important to provide more insight
into the future of road transport, or rather of possible futures
– there is not just one future to be expected, but in fact the
future developments are largely uncertain. Scenario technique
can help to explore alternative paths of development.
The first Shell Goods Vehicle Study has the subtitle “Facts,
trends and perspectives in road goods transport up to 2030”.
Goods transport in Germany
The study starts by analysing the overall economic and
transport context of road transport of goods in Germany up to
2030 – developments in goods transport are dependent on
developments in industry. Cross-border transportation is
becoming increasingly important for goods traffic – as much
as two fifths of Germany’s economic output goes into export,
particularly industrial products. The international exchange of
goods, particularly industrial goods export, responds very
strongly to changes in GDP. The political, infrastructural and
technological basis for continuing economic integration
remains intact despite the financial and economic crisis. That
means international exchange of goods and hence also
goods transport will increase sharply again as the global
economy recovers.
MODALSPLIT
SPLITIN
INGOODS
GOODS TRANSPORT
TRANSPORT 2008
MODAL
2008
Pipeline (2,5 %)
Air Transport (0,2%)
18.1%
Non-German 26.7 %
goods vehicles
Rail
10.0 % Inland
waterways
German goods vehicles 42.5%
(excl. local transport)
Source: Verkehr in Zahlen 2009/2010
Goods transport in Germany is already 4 billion tonnes
(2008 figures) today, and transport volume about 670 billion
tonne-kilometres. In the course of the years, there have been
substantial changes in goods structure (light-weight, high-value
products), in logistic concepts (just-in-time), and also in the
political regulatory conditions for goods transport. Today,
road haulage accounts for nearly 70% of goods transportation. Goods transport volume in Germany will increase to
more than 1,000 billion tonne-kilometres by 2030; trucks will
2
Types, fleets, new registrations
FORECASTTRANSPORT
TRANSPORT VOLUME
VOLUME IN GERMANY
FORECAST
BETWEEN
2010
AND
2030
IN GERMANY BETWEEN 2010 AND 2030
1200 billion tkm
1000
800
Goods vehicles
Inland waterways
600
Rail
400
200
0
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Source: BVU/Intraplan; own calculations
thus slightly increase their share in the modal split to more than
70%. Transport volume will also increase about 50% in the
EU 27, to about 3,400 billion tonne-kilometres by 2030.
Goods vehicles, like the functions and services in today’s road
transport, have become highly differentiated. They are
categorised in different classes today, both nationally and
internationally, on the basis of their gross vehicle weight rating
(GVWR). The most important categories in Germany are light
commercial vehicles (up to 3.5 tonnes gross vehicle weight),
large goods vehicles, and semi-trailer trucks. Germany has
one of the largest vehicle fleets with 2.5 million goods
vehicles, and is one of the largest goods vehicle markets in
Europe, with new registrations exceeding 300,000 in some
years. Germany is by far the largest vehicle market in the
EU 27 for new registrations of large goods vehicles and
semi-trailer trucks over 3.5 tonnes, where Germany accounts
for nearly a quarter of European registrations. Germany’s fleet
LARGESTGOODS
GOODSVEHICLE
VEHICLE FLEET OVER
LARGEST
3.5 TONNES
IN THEIN
EUTHE
(2008)
OVER
3.5 TONNES
EU (2008)
1.0 million
Goods transport is not only an essential for economic
development, but is itself an important and extremely dynamic
economic factor. However, it is not easy to distinguish road
goods transport data on the basis of the available economic
statistics. Goods transport and logistics employs a workforce
of about 2.6 million people in Germany, generating revenues
of some EUR 200 billion. That makes Germany a world
leader in the logistics sector.
The choice of mode of transport by shippers, i.e. road, rail or
inland waterways, is mainly determined by the respective
strengths and weaknesses of the individual transport modes.
Overall, road transport has the quality characteristics that are
most important for the rising market requirements. But in
practice a large proportion of goods transport is effected in
multi-modal or inter-modal transport. Despite the excellent
perspectives for the future, goods vehicles are still at the focus
of many discussions on the environment, energy, climate and
the future of the division of labour in industry as a whole.
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
I
D
PL
F
GB
E
NL
Source: Eurostat (2009)
of goods vehicles of more than 3.5 tonnes comprises
738 thousand vehicles, taking second place after Italy and
before Poland.
The total fleet of goods vehicles has risen by two thirds since
the early 1990s, from about 1.5 million to over 2.5 million
units – and in the old system of counting, the number would
have nearly doubled to just under 2.9 million units. But in
recent times the fleet has grown only slightly. However, there
Summary:
Road transport accounts for about 70% of goods transport
today, and continues to develop rapidly, not least because of
LARGE GOODS VEHICLES & SEMI FLEET IN GERMANY
its transport and quality characteristics. Road transport itself is
METHOD
CHANGED
2007)
LARGE
GOODS
VEHICLES
AND SEMI FLEET IN GERMANY (CALCULATION
(CALCULATION
METHOD
CHANGED
2007)
also
an important
factor
in the economy.
500 thousand
3.0 million
Total
2.5
3.5–7.5 t
2.0
300
up to 3.5 t
1.5
over 12 t
200
1.0
Semi-trailer trucks
100
0.5
0
1990
400
7.5–12 t
0
1995
2000
Source: Kraftfahrt-Bundesamt (1990-2010)
2005
2010
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
3
are in some cases very substantial differences between the
individual vehicle classes – the most dynamic development
comes in the class of light commercial vehicles up to 3.5
tonnes, where the fleet has more than doubled from about
800,000 in 1990 to about 2 million vehicles in 2009. The
fleet of semi-trailer trucks has also nearly doubled to around
200,000 units. Semi-trailer trucks are the main carrier in
long-haul goods transport.
New registrations varied in recent years between 200,000
and more than 300,000 vehicles per annum. In 2009 there
was a sharp decline in registration figures, historically
comparable only with the decline in 1992/93. In new
registrations, too, light commercial vehicles were key factors in
the trend, with about three quarters of registrations, and
semi-trailer trucks made up about one tenth.
DEVELOPMENTOF
OFSELECTED
SELECTED EMISSIONS
EMISSIONS
DEVELOPMENT
ROADTRANSPORT
TRANSPORT
ININ
ROAD
100 %
80
PM10
60
NOX
40
CO
20
SO2
0
1995
2000
2005
2008
Source: Federal Environment Agency (2010); own calculations
Summary:
Germany is the biggest goods vehicle market in Europe,
accounting for about a quarter of new registrations of large
goods vehicles and semi-trailer trucks over 3.5 tonnes.
The total fleet of goods vehicles in Germany has increased by
nearly two thirds since 1990, from about 1.5 to 2.5 million
units. The most dynamic categories are light commercial
vehicles and semi-trailer trucks.
Road goods transport and
the environment
The necessity and the benefits of road goods transport for the
distribution and supply of goods to the population are largely
undisputed. But the increasing numbers and mileage of large
goods vehicles and semi-trailer trucks has increasing negative
impact on people and the environment. The use of fuels in
combustion engines releases atmospheric pollutants which
have negative impact on air quality. That is why clean air
policies have had more impact on the propulsion technologies and fuels used in road transport than any other factor in
the last few decades.
Environmental policy has imposed ever stricter regulations for
the protection of people and the environment – the limits for
concentrations of particulates and nitrogen oxides in the air
will be even stricter from 2010 onwards. And road transport,
alongside other sectors, is a major emission source of these
pollutants. So further source related emission requirements
have been set for transport, in addition to the new air quality
standards. They set environmental specifications for fuel
quality, and limit the major atmospheric pollutants in the
exhaust emissions of vehicles.
The most important measure in the fuels sector was almost
total desulphurisation of fuels – implemented in Germany as
early as 2003. In addition, standard limits for exhaust gas
emissions (Euro standards) were introduced from 1992
onward. Since their introduction, the limits for the pollutants
regulated there have been lowered by between two thirds
and nearly 90%. The Euro standards will become even stricter
in the coming years, especially for particulates and nitrogen
oxides. But there are technical goal conflicts in simultaneous
minimisation of particulates and nitrogen oxide emissions,
requiring the use of extensive exhaust gas cleaning technologies. Stricter Euro standards increase vehicle cost, and in
some cases also increase fuel consumption.
Today some 85% of the goods vehicle fleet has no pollutant
category or pollutant categories up to Euro 3/III. Clean
vehicle technology is becoming more and more widely
established, but there are differences, in some cases substantial differences, which largely correspond to average vehicle
age. Goods transport in Germany is mainly by means of
large goods vehicles and semi-trailer trucks which meet the
requirements of Euro III or V. But the smallest commercial
vehicle category, that is light commercial vehicles, comprises
50% of vehicles complying with Euro II or I or vehicles not
DEVELOPMENT OF EXHAUST GAS LIMITS
DEVELOPMENT
OF EXHAUST GAS LIMITS DUE TO
DUE
TO EURO STANDARDS
EURO STANDARDS
PM (EURO I = 0.36 g/kWh)
100 %
1993
Euro I
80
Reduced peak temperatures
Low NOx , high PM
60
Co
nfl
ict
Particle
filter
reduce
s PM
A total of about 3 million goods vehicles are expected in
Germany in 2030. Annual new registrations will continue to
fluctuate considerably, probably rising to an average of more
than 300,000 vehicles.
40
1996
Euro II
2001
Increased peak temperatures: Euro III
NO
High NOx , low PM
xa
nd
2006
PM
Euro IV
e m is s
io n s
2008
Euro V
20
ic conv.
SCR catalyct
reduces NOx
0
0
20
40
60
From 2012
Euro VI
80
100 %
NOx (EURO I = 8 g/kWh)
Source: own diagram using data of Federal Environment Agency
4
fulfilling any Euro standard. Alongside the emission limits,
government is mainly working with fiscal incentives in order to
establish clean vehicle technology as fast as possible. The
emissions related motorway toll on large goods vehicles and
semi-trailer trucks from 12 tonnes upward has proved highly
effective. But for urban traffic, non-technical measures such as
entry bans are increasingly being considered, although their
impact is not undisputed.
Summary:
Road transport is steadily becoming cleaner. Long-haul road
transport is dominated by Euro III and Euro V vehicles. But the
light commercial vehicle fleet is modernising only slowly. This
reflects the different effectiveness of environmental instruments
in the dissemination of technology.
But more technically complex exhaust gas cleaning technology has made large goods vehicles more expensive, and in
recent years has in some cases also increased their energy
consumption.
Propulsion systems, fuels,
vehicle technology
Apart from the main environmental problems, fuel and energy
consumption has also become a major issue for carriers.
Government is calling for further diversification of propulsion
systems and fuels, and systematic measures to address the
carbon emissions problems in road transport, as in other
areas. The carriers are therefore making great efforts to
improve energy efficiency in motorised road transport and to
reduce energy consumption and carbon emissions. There are
basically four ways for improvement of energy and climate
performance in road goods transport – propulsion systems,
fuel and energy options, optimisation of vehicle design, and
driving style and traffic management.
Diesel engines are currently the dominant form of propulsion,
accounting for about 93% of the total goods vehicle fleet.
Diesel accounts for 99% or more of the higher weight
categories, which are particularly relevant in road transportaFUELSHARES
SHARES2009
2009IN
INMILLION
MILLIONTONNES
TONNES
FUEL
28.26
tion. That means the diesel engine is the dominant propulsion
system and diesel fuel is the dominant fuel in transport of
goods by road. Despite its long period of development, the
diesel engine still has plenty of potential for development. In
the medium term, further effective savings potential of about
10% may be expected in engine and drive train alone.
In addition, biofuels can be used today in practically all diesel
vehicles. The most important biogenic fuel alternative at the
present time is biodiesel. Today up to 7% biodiesel can be
blended with diesel fuel. Depending on progress in vehicle
and fuel technology, up to 20% biofuel could well be in use
by 2030. The main difference in biofuels is the way they are
manufactured, for example their overall CO2 inventory.
Sustainable biofuels are an important element in any sustainability strategy for road goods transport.
Apart from liquid fuels for diesel engines, the use of compressed natural gas (CNG) and liquid petroleum gas (LPG)
are at an early stage of market introduction, and are still at the
development stage in some vehicles. Both of these fuel
options, especially CNG, will be used in the near future in
market niches, i.e. in urban transportation with light commercial vehicles and in some large goods vehicles.
In addition, hybrid, electric and hydrogen propulsion systems
are expected to give major technological impulses for future
vehicle development. Electrification and hybridisation of the
drive train will continue. But full hybrid and electric trucks are
just at the beginning of their development. Their preferred
application area is expected initially to be in urban delivery
and distribution operations – that is where they give the
greatest saving potentials. The main application area for
hydrogen so far is in selected bus fleets for regional and
urban passenger transport. But the sustainability of electric
and hydrogen vehicles is critically dependent on the overall
greenhouse gas inventory of the propulsion electricity or
hydrogen.
Apart from propulsion systems and fuels, there is substantial
additional potential for reducing energy consumption and
CLIMATE BALANCE OF BIOFUELS
CLIMATE BALANCE OF BIOFUELS
55% Biodiesel from rapeseed
Diesel
60% Biodiesel from soybeans
38% Biodiesel from palm oil (with methane capture)
12% Biodiesel from waste oil
2.3
49% Hydrotreated rapeseed oil
Biodiesel B7
32% Hydrotreated palm oil (with methane capture)
Biodiesel B100
(0.24)
19.9
42% Pure rapeseed oil
Vegetable oil
(0.1)
Diesel = 100%
Bioethanol (0.9)
Source: UFOP (2010)
Gasoline
0
20
40
Source: EU Directive 2009/28/EC
60
80
100%
5
AERODYNAMIC
POTENTIALS
AERODYNAMIC
POTENTIALSOF
OF SEMI-TRAILER
SEMI-TRAILER TRUCKS
TRUCKS
Aerodynamically shaped
roof without superstructure
such as lights or horns
Spoiler between tractor and trailer
Teardrop shaped trailer
Rear spoiler
Reduction in drag at 85 km/h: 15 to 20%
Source: own diagram
Side skirting for tractor and trailer
carbon emissions by improving vehicle design. One of the
main approaches to optimise goods vehicles is reduction of
their drag (air resistance) by aerodynamic design. Nearly
40% of the total energy effort needed to move a 40-tonne
truck at 85 km/h is used to overcome drag. Other
approaches are reduction of rolling resistance, for example by
using energy saving tyres or reducing weight by lightweight
construction. Further fuel economies can be achieved by
improved driving style and by traffic management.
Complete side skirting
Moulded rear
CO
inGERMANY
GERMANY 2008
2 -EMISSIONSIN
CO
2 -EMISSIONS
Transport: 20%
All in all, propulsion and fuel concepts will continue to spread
in goods transport in the coming years, even if more slowly
than in motorised individual transport. It is likely that goods
vehicles will use further improved diesel technology in 2030,
that they will increasingly be fitted with hybrid elements, and
that they will combine sustainable biofuels with optimised
vehicle design.
Summary:
Diesel propulsion dominates in goods vehicles today. Its share
of the total fleet is 93%, and in important vehicle categories it
is as much as 99%.
The goods vehicle of 2030 is likely to use further improved
diesel technology, to use hybrid technology depending on its
operating profile, and to combine biofuels and optimised
vehicle design.
Fuel consumption and carbon emissions
Goods transport by road accounts for more than 5% of total
CO2 emissions in Germany today (2008 figures). And the
transport volume and mileages of goods vehicles are expected to continue growing rapidly in the coming years. That
is why, despite its relatively small share of total CO2 emissions,
goods transport by road is coming increasingly into the focus
of transport, energy and climate policy. The government wants
energy supply for road transport of goods to be placed on a
broader basis. At the same time, it wants a major reduction in
carbon emissions from goods vehicles in the future. The
present study therefore examines on the basis of two technology scenarios – a Trend Scenario and an Alternative
Energy sector (47 %)
Industry (13%)
Passenger cars (13%)
Road goods transport(5%)
Other transport (2%)
Households (14%)
Small consumers (6%)
Source: Federal Environment Agency (2010); own diagram
Scenario – what contribution road transport of goods can
make to energy diversification and climate change mitigation
in the next 20 years. It has been assumed for both scenarios
that by 2030 fuel saving technologies will have become well
established in light commercial vehicles and large goods
vehicles, and almost totally established for semi-trailer trucks.
The mileages, fuel consumptions and emissions used in this
study have been derived from the Federal Government’s
transport forecast 2025, and extrapolated to 2030. On this
basis, total mileage of all goods vehicles in road transport
rises from about 70 billion vehicle kilometres in 2005 to 117.4
billion in 2030; the highest growth rate is in semi-trailer trucks,
with an increase of nearly 100%.
The Trend Scenario assumes that the technology trends of the
recent past continue steadily into the future. Average fuel
consumptions of light commercial vehicles and large goods
vehicles can be reduced by 23% and 19% respectively, by
increasing use of hybrid technology, and by technical
innovations in engine and gearbox. Alternative fuels increase
only slightly; biofuels take a market share of about 12%.
Electric propulsion makes gradual progress only in light
commercial vehicles and light trucks, but still plays no part at
all in semi-trailer trucks.
6
FUEL
FUELCONSUMPTION
CONSUMPTIONOF
OF ROAD GOODS
ROAD
GOODS TRANSPORT
TRANSPORT
account for about 4 million tonnes. Efficiency technologies
and biofuels ensure that CO2 emissions rise considerably less,
that is by 32%, reaching a total of 61 million tonnes. But there
is still an increase in CO2 emissions even in the Alternative
Scenario, due to increased tonne-kilometres and mileage.
That means technological improvements in propulsion systems,
fuels and vehicles are vital for the climate inventory, but are
not enough in themselves to reduce the total (absolute) CO2
emissions of road goods transport; other options aimed at
tonne-kilometres and mileage would have to be considered to
achieve that.
25 million t
20
15
10
5
0
2005
LCVs
2030
Trend Scenario
LGVs
2030
Alternative Scenario
Semi-Trailer Trucks
Total Consumption
Source: own calculations
The Alternative Scenario assumes significantly faster progress
in innovation and market launch of new propulsion, fuel and
vehicle technologies. Additional measures in hybridisation,
aerodynamics and driving style enable light commercial
vehicles to cut their fuel consumption by 36%, and semi-trailer
trucks by 28% versus 2005. Alternative fuels considerably
increase their growth rate. Towards the end of the 2020s, the
biofuel share of fuel sales rises to about 20% thanks to new
sustainable biofuels. CNG and electric propulsion likewise
account for more mileage, especially in the lower weight
categories.
Total carbon emissions of motorised road transport in Germany remain largely stable in the Trend Scenario. But they are
reduced significantly in the Alternative Scenario, thanks to
considerable improvements in passenger cars, and also in
goods vehicles, with a reduction of about 17% in the period
2005 to 2030. The significant decline in passenger car
emissions means that the share of goods vehicle emissions in
road transport emissions increases from 29% today to 45% in
the Trend Scenario or 47% in the Alternative Scenario.
DEVELOPMENT
FOOTPRINT
DEVELOPMENTOF
OFCARBON
CARBON FOOTPRINT
OFPASSENGER
PASSENGERAND
AND GOODS
GOODS VEHICLES
OF
VEHICLES
180 million t
160
140
Cars
Cars
120
Cars
100
Average fleet consumption drops by 15 to 18% in the trend
scenario by 2030 versus 2005. But rising transport volumes
and mileages mean that total fuel consumption increases by
54% by 2030, reaching a level of about 23 million tonnes, of
which about 2.7 million tonnes are biofuels. Despite efficiency
increases, which are in some cases substantial, total CO2
emissions from goods transport rise by about 50% to some 70
million tonnes in 2030.
In the Alternative Scenario, specific consumption goes down
by 25 or 26%. Total fuel consumption in 2020 is then over 20
million tonnes or more than 37% higher than in 2005; biofuels
ESTIMATE OF DEVELOPMENT OF CARBON
FOOTPRINT
ROAD GOODS
ESTIMATE OFOF
DEVELOPMENT
OFTRANSPORT
CARBON
FOOTPRINT OF ROAD GOODS TRANSPORT
100 million t
90
Constant
Technology
80
70
60
40
20
Goods vehicles
Goods vehicles
Goods vehicles
0
2005
2030
Trend Scenario
2030
Alternative Scenario
Source: Shell Passenger Car Scenarios; own calculations
Summary:
The share of road goods transport in total CO2 emissions is
about 5% at present, but it will rise due to the expected
tonne-kilometre and mileage increases in goods transport by
road.
Technological improvements in goods vehicles, and in
particular more sustainable passenger car mobility, mean that
the CO2 emissions from motor vehicle traffic as a whole
remain stable in the period 2005 to 2030 in the Trend
Scenario, and decrease by about 17% in the Alternative
Scenario.
Trend Scenario
60
Alternative
Scenario
50
40
2005
80
2010
Source: own calculations
2015
2020
2025
2030
Find more facts, figures and information in the unabrigded edition
of the Shell LKW-Studie and the Shell PKW-Szenarien bis 2030
(both German language only).
http://www.shell.de/lkwstudie
http://www.shell.de/pkwszenarien