Weekly Highlights - UniCredit Research

Transcription

Credit Research
11 December 2015
High Yield Pacenotes
Weekly Highlights
■
■
■
■
Credit spreads in high-yield (iBoxx HY NFI +20bp to 449bp) ultimately
gave in to the ongoing weakening trend in equities (Euro STOXX
50 -3.4% wow) amid investors experiencing further volatility in
commodities prices (the price of Brent futures broke below USD 40/bbl).
Investor cautiousness has increased before next week’s FOMC meeting
(where a rate hike is broad market consensus), as Chinese trade data
showed falling exports (-6.8% yoy in November) for a fifth consecutive
month and declining imports (-8.7% yoy in November) for the thirteenth
consecutive month.
While commodity prices were in focus, eurozone data came in mixed.
German IP (+0.2% mom) in October missed consensus expectations.
Following two consecutive declines and overall decreasing industrial
activity in the third quarter, our economists highlight that the positive
figure still shows the first sign of recovery in the industrial sector. In
addition, the headline figure was depressed by a sizable drop in energy
production in October while manufacturing activity expanded by 0.7%
mom. Hence, our economists expect a solid end-of-year acceleration in
economic growth as new orders and survey indicators have been upbeat
lately.
The positive stance towards the periphery was underlined by Italy’s IP
advancing for a second consecutive month in October (+0.5% mom after
0.2% and vs. consensus of 0.3%). Our economists highlight that
manufacturing activity performed even better (+0.8% mom) with energy
production (-0.7% mom) also softening the increase in the headline
figure. On a yearly basis, IP was up by a solid 2.9% (after 1.8%),
suggesting an annual expansion of 1.1% in the period January-October
2015.
Contents
Renewed price declines bring oil back in the focus __ 2
Rating Actions ______________________________ 4
Recommendation Overview ____________________ 5
HY Calendar________________________________ 5
Earnings Preview ____________________________ 6
Phoenix __________________________________ 6
Latest Company News ________________________ 7
Areva (Hold) ______________________________ 7
Bilfinger (Sell) _____________________________ 7
Cirsa (Buy) _______________________________ 8
FCA (Buy) ________________________________ 8
FTE Automotive (Hold) ______________________ 9
Faurecia (Buy) ___________________________ 10
Goodyear (Hold) __________________________ 10
Matterhorn Telecom (Sell) __________________ 11
Oi (Hold) ________________________________ 11
RCS & RDS (Hold) ________________________ 12
TUI (Hold) _______________________________ 13
TeamSystem (Hold) _______________________ 14
Voith (Hold) ______________________________ 15
HY Issuers and Bonds _______________________ 16
FINANCIALS WEEKLY WINNERS AND LOSERS
CMZB 2.884% 03/30/18
DEXGRP 0.604% 07/10/17
NOVBNC 4% 01/21/19
CMZB 5% 10/30/17
SABSM 6.25% 04/26/20
NOVBNC 4.75% 01/15/18
NOVBNC 3.5% 01/02/43
NDB 4.75% 10/02/23
AIB 1.375% 03/16/20
DB 8% 05/15/18
iBoxx EUR HY Financials
MONTE 7.44% 12/30/16
VENBAN 4% 05/20/19
PMIIM 7.125% 03/01/21
BPIM 6% 11/05/20
MONTE 5% 04/21/20
MONTE 5.6% 09/09/20
VICEN 5% 10/25/18
BPIM 6.375% 05/31/21
MONTE 0.891% 11/30/17
VICEN 9.5% 09/29/25
-8%
-6%
-2%
-4%
weekly total return
0%
2%
Source: Markit, UniCredit Research
While the fundamental recovery trend remains solid, uncertainties
outside Europe will likely flare up again, especially as the renewed
weakness in oil prices put concerns about rising US default rates back
into investor focus.
NON-FINANCIALS WEEKLY WINNERS AND LOSERS
HEMABV 8.5% 12/15/19
EDCON 9.5% 03/01/18
STTESE 11% 08/15/17
CGGFP 5.875% 05/15/20
HEMABV 5.134% 06/15/19
SNSPW 4% 09/30/21
HEMABV 6.25% 06/15/19
EDCON 9.5% 03/01/18
JAH 3.75% 10/01/21
CEMEX 4.375% 03/05/23
iBoxx EUR HY Non-Financials
PETBRA 3.75% 01/14/21
OIBRBZ 4.375% 03/24/17
OIBRBZ 5.125% 12/15/17
QUIBB 7.451% 10/15/19
OIBRBZ 5.625% 06/22/21
OIBRBZ 5.875% 04/17/18
OIBRBZ 5% 11/04/19
NSINO 8% 02/24/21
OIBRBZ 4.5% 06/16/25
NWRLN 8% 04/07/20
-35.0% -30.0% -25.0% -20.0% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0%
weekly total return
0.0%
5.0%
10.0% 15.0%
Bloomberg
UCCR
UniCredit Research
Author
Dr. Christian Weber, CFA (UniCredit Bank)
+49 89 378-12250
[email protected]
page 1
Internet
www.research.unicredit.eu
See last pages for disclaimer.
11 December 2015
Credit Research
Renewed price declines bring oil back in the focus
-2.0%
400
Corporates
Industrials
-2.5%
-3.0%
300
04-Dec
27-Nov
20-Nov
13-Nov
06-Nov
30-Oct
23-Oct
16-Oct
09-Oct
02-Oct
25-Sep
18-Sep
11-Sep
-3.5%
200
■ Average ASW
▬ Current ASW
Oil & Gas
-1.5%
Health Care
500
-1.0%
Technology
600
0.0%
-0.5%
Financials
0.5%
Consumer Goods
700
1.0%
Basic Materials
1.5%
800
Consumer Services
excess
Media
cumulated
Utilities
2.0%
Bund
Telecommunications
iBoxx HY NFI 12M ASW spread ranges by sector
iBoxx EUR HY main cum xover
Non-Financials
iBoxx HY Excess Return vs. Bund
█ Minimum-Maximum Range
Oil prices mark fresh low with
Brent futures breaking below
USD 40/bbl
The renewed weakness in oil prices (Brent futures slipped below USD 40/bbl) follows the
abandoned production target at the OPEC meeting on 4 December, which prompted our
commodity colleagues to lower their oil-price forecast for 2016 to an average of USD 52.5/bbl
from their previous forecast of USD 60/bbl, and for 2017 down to USD 60/bbl from
USD 65/bbl. One of the reasons for effectively abandoning a production target is the difficulty
in dealing with Iranian production returning to the market after the possible lifting of sanctions.
After sanctions were imposed, oil production in Iran dropped form 3.6mn bbl/day to 2.8mn
bbl/day. Iran aims to increase production back to previous levels, but due to its rather old oil
infrastructure, our commodity analyst estimates that an increase of merely 500-600k bbl/day
is possible over a six-month period. Iran is already working on some future projects and also
has about 40-50mn bbl in floating storage available for export, which could considerably
increase the supply surplus in 2016 should Iran return to the oil market before high-cost
producers are forced to reduce their supply.
Supply-and-demand dynamics
should push prices higher in
2016
Nevertheless, our commodity analyst sticks to the baseline scenario of an oil-price recovery in
2016, or 2017 at the latest, as the decline in US fracking production is only a matter of time and
could become more severe than generally expected. While most analysts expect a further
decline of 500,000 bbl/day in 2016 production after a 450,000 bbl/day decline in 2015, there is
no historical data on fracking fields. In addition, the lack of accessibility to financial markets
should lead to a decline in investment in new oil projects, which will accelerate decline rates in
exhausted fields. This factor could be strong enough to offset a possible increase in Iranian oil
production next year. Moreover, global oil demand will likely increase by 1.2mn bbl/day in 2016,
after having seen a strong increase in consumption of 1.8mn bbl/day in 2015. This will lead to a
supply deficit in the second half of 2016 and a turn in the global inventory cycle.
Risk reward ratio tilted to the
positive side in Oil & Gas and
Basic Resources
Hence, we also remain constructive on Oil & Gas and Basic Resources from a credit
perspective. While the bottoming-out phase in respective oil and commodities prices will
continue to spark volatility from time to time, the medium-term fundamental supply-anddemand dynamics suggest that the risk-reward ratio is skewed to the positive side, given
current elevated risk premiums in both sectors. Please also note that our sector analyst also
remains positive about Glencore (Baa2n/BBBn/--). Although the company is rated IG, its
notes trade at B spread levels and we reiterate our overweight recommendation following a
reassuring investor update call this week. While Glencore is feeling the further-weakened
commodity pricing environment, its management continues to reply with a confident message
of further accelerated debt reduction, continued cost cuts to preserve FCF generation
(excluding disposals) and (most importantly) additional flexibility if commodity prices continue
to decline even further.
UniCredit Research
page 2
11 December 2015
Credit Research
INDEX PERFORMANCE
XOver vs. Cash Index Spread
Index Performance
iBoxx EUR High Yield main cum crossover LC
Spread (RS)
iTraxx Eur Xover
600
150
Weekly
cumulated
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
450
100
0.5%
0.0%
-0.5%
300
50
-1.0%
-1.5%
-2.0%
04-Dec
27-Nov
20-Nov
13-Nov
06-Nov
30-Oct
23-Oct
16-Oct
09-Oct
02-Oct
25-Sep
11-Sep
18-Sep
-2.5%
Dec-15
Nov-15
Oct-15
Sep-15
Aug-15
Jul-15
Jun-15
May-15
Apr-15
Feb-15
Jan-15
Mar-15
0
Dec-14
150
PERFORMANCE & SPREAD BY RATING
3M cumulated performance by BB/B/CCC
3M daily spread movement by BB/B/CCC
B
BB
CCC
iBoxx EUR High Yield main Non-Financials cum crossover LC BB
4.0%
iBoxx EUR High Yield main Non-Financials cum crossover LC B
iBoxx EUR High Yield main Non-Financials cum crossover LC CCC
3.0%
1200
2.0%
1000
08-Dec
01-Dec
24-Nov
17-Nov
10-Nov
03-Nov
27-Oct
20-Oct
08-Sep
04-Dec
27-Nov
20-Nov
13-Nov
06-Nov
30-Oct
23-Oct
16-Oct
02-Oct
09-Oct
0
25-Sep
-4.0%
18-Sep
200
11-Sep
-3.0%
13-Oct
400
06-Oct
-2.0%
600
29-Sep
-1.0%
800
22-Sep
0.0%
15-Sep
ASW-Spread (bp)
1.0%
RATING ISSUANCE & RATING STRUCTURE
Issuance by Rating
BB
12,000
Rating Structure
B
CCC
CC
average rating (RS)
-0.5
BB
0
1.5
6,000
B2
60%
50%
2.5
2,000
3
CCC
3.5
30%
4
10%
Nov-10
Feb-11
May-11
Aug-11
Nov-11
Feb-12
May-12
Aug-12
Nov-12
Feb-13
May-13
Aug-13
Nov-13
Feb-14
May-14
Aug-14
Nov-14
Feb-15
May-15
Aug-15
Nov-15
C
70%
4,000
0
CC
80%
iBoxx HY Weight
Issues (EUR mn)
0.5
1
BB
CCC
90%
10,000
8,000
B
100%
40%
20%
0%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
UniCredit Research
page 3
11 December 2015
Credit Research
DEFAULT RATES AND SECTOR STRUCTURE
Spread vs. Default Rate
Sector Structure
Global Trailing 12-Month Issuer-Weighted Spec-Grade Default Rate
16%
14%
1,600
Global Baseline Forecast
iBoxx EUR High Yield main ASW (RS)
FNL
90%
12%
1,200
80%
10%
1,000
800
6%
600
4%
400
iBoxx HY Weight
1,400
8%
CGD
IDU
TEL
BSC
OIG
CSV
CNS
THE
HCA
UTI
MDI
100%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
2%
200
0%
2008
0
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
10%
0%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Rating Actions
Rating Date
10-Dec-15
Issuer
Agency
action
Rating Type
From
To
Edcon Proprietary
Moody's
upgrade
Senior Unsecured Debt
Ca
Caa3
outlook
Outlook
NEG
STABLE
upgrade
Probability of Default
Ca
Caa1
S&P
outlook
Outlook
STABLE
NEG
Moody's
downgrade
Ba2
Ba3 *-
downgrade
Corp Family Rating
Ba2
Ba3 *-
downgrade
Corp Family Rating
B3
Caa2
downgrade
Senior Secured Debt Rating
B3
Caa2
Outlook
NEG
NEG
B3
Caa2
Snai
9-Dec-15
Petrobras
Waste Italia
Moody's
outlook
downgrade
8-Dec-15
Darty
S&P
outlook
Outlook
NEG
DEVELOP
ODEON & UCI Cinemas
Moody's
outlook
Outlook
NEG
STABLE
Sberbank
Moody's
outlook
Outlook
NEG
STABLE
Fitch
outlook
Outlook
STABLE
POS
Moody's
outlook
Outlook
POS
STABLE
S&P
outlook
Outlook
STABLE
NEG
Fitch
watch negative
BB-
BB- *-
Outlook
STABLE
NEG
Moody's
downgrade
Ba3
B3
UBS
7-Dec-15
4-Dec-15
CMA CGM
Chesapeake Energy
outlook
initial
outlook
downgrade
Senior Secured Debt Rating
B1
Outlook
NEG
NEG
Ba2
B2
Gazprom
Moody's
outlook
Outlook
NEG
STABLE
Gazprom Neft
Moody's
outlook
Outlook
NEG
STABLE
Source: UniCredit Research
UniCredit Research
page 4
11 December 2015
Credit Research
Recommendation Overview
Buy
Hold
Hold
Sell
ALBA Group
Altice
Amplifon
Cirsa
CMC di Ravenna
Faurecia
FCA
Grupo Antolin
IGT
Ineos
Italcementi
Motherson
Novomatic
Numericable-SFR
Prada
Renault
Sappi
Schaeffler
Virgin Media
Wind
ZF Friedrichshafen
Alain Afflelou
Alcatel
Bormioli Rocco
Buzzi Unicem
CABB
Cerved
Douglas
Europcar
FMC
Fresenius
FTE Automotive
Gamenet
Gestamp
Goodyear
Guala Closures
Haniel
HeidelbergCement
Hornbach
HP Pelzer
ista
Jaguar Land Rover
Kerling
Kion
LafargeHolcim
Lecta
Lufthansa
Mahle
Manutencoop
Nokia
Oi
Ontex
OTE Hellenic Telecom
Peugeot
Phoenix
RCS & RDS
Rhiag
Schmolz & Bickenbach
Smurfit Kappa
STADA
Stora Enso
Sunrise
TeamSystem
Techem
Telecom Italia
Telenet
Thomas Cook
TMF Group
TUI
United Group
Unitymedia
UPC
Vestas
Wienerberger
Xella
Ziggo
Zobele
Ardagh Glass
Bombardier
CNH Industrial
Hertz
Matterhorn Mobile
Piaggio
Snai
HY Calendar
Mon, 14 Dec
Tue, 15 Dec
Wed, 16 Dec
Thu, 17 Dec
--
Numericable-SFR:
Annual Shareholder Meeting
at 14:30 CET
--
Phoenix Pharmahandel:
-3Q15/16 results and
conference call at 14:00 CET
Dial-in: +49 - (0)69-271340154
Telecom Italia: Extraordinary
Shareholder Meeting
Fri, 18 Dec
UniCredit Research
page 5
11 December 2015
Credit Research
Earnings Preview
Phoenix
Thursday, 17 December
Phoenix (--/BB+/BBs) will report 3Q15/16 and 9M15/16 results on 17 December and hold a
conference call at 14:00 CET the same day. We expect a continuation of the solid 1H15/16
trend. We assume an increase in reported revenue of 5% yoy in 9M15/16 to EUR 17,564mn
(2Q15/16 on a reported basis: +3.3% yoy; 1Q15/16: +7% yoy). We assume that the
improvement will occur mainly as a result of the increase in revenue in the German wholesale
market. Also the majority of the company’s foreign markets should record an increase in
revenue. We expect Phoenix to exceed European pharma market growth of around 4% by
around 2% in 9M15/16 (1H15/16: + 6.7% in total operating performance). In 9M15/16, group
EBITDA (reported) should remain nearly stable yoy at EUR 335mn. Note, in 2Q15/16 group
EBITDA decreased by 12.7% yoy to EUR 112.3mn. Management indicated during the
1H15/16 results call that without exceptional items, EBITDA increased by around EUR 15mn
yoy in 2Q15/16. We expect an increase in gross profit margin to 9.6% from 9.3% in 9M14/15
(1H15/16: 9.6%), mainly supported by an improved cost-of-sales ratio. We assume a further
slight improvement in net leverage in 9M15/16. In 1H15/16, the net debt/adj. EBITDA ratio
(company definition) improved yoy to 2.54x (1Q15/16: 2.71x; FYE 2014/15: 1.88x). For
1H15/16 we calculate an improvement in credit metrics yoy, i.e. adj. net debt/EBITDA of 2.8x
(FY14/15: 2.5x; 1H14/15: 4.4x, all UniCredit calculations including pension liabilities and
operating leases). We assume that management will confirm its FY15/16 target of profit
before tax above the prior-year level (adjusted for special effects from pensions) and a slight
increase in the equity ratio.
Dr. Silke Stegemann (UniCredit Bank)
+49 89 378-18202
[email protected]
UniCredit Research
page 6
11 December 2015
Credit Research
Latest Company News
Areva (Hold)
Tuesday, 8 December
Yesterday Bloomberg reported that Areva (--/BB-/--) is considering the disposal of Areva TA,
a unit making nuclear engines for French military submarines. According to the article, Areva
may approach DCNS, the French state-controlled maker of military vessels and submarines,
as well as EDF (A1n/A+n/As) or Technicatome, about their interest in buying the unit. The
deliberations are said to be at an early stage and a transaction may still not materialize.
Currently, both DCNS and EDF have minority stakes in Areva TA. For FY14 Areva TA, which
also makes nuclear reactors for research, generated revenues of EUR 345mn and EBITDA of
EUR 22mn. A sale of the unit would help to close the remaining refinancing gap in its 20152017 financing plan. According to Areva’s financing plan, the company wants to cover EUR
7bn refinancing needs by 1. several equity financing sources, i.e. through cash pooling and
improved working capital generation (EUR 1.2bn), 2. at least a 75% sale of Areva NP for
roughly EUR 2.0bn, 3. a significant capital increase by the French state (Aaas/AAn/AAs) in
the area of EUR 3bn and 4. the sale of other non-strategic assets for around EUR 400mn.
One major obstacle to the sale of Areva NP remains Areva’s Finnish EPR reactor Olkiluoto 3,
for which EDF continues to refuse to take liability. Nevertheless, given strong political
involvement, we still expect a firm offer from EDF in the coming weeks. Given that the
considerations of a sale of Areva TA seem to be in an early stage and the small size of the
business, we regard the news as credit neutral. In the short term, we do not expect an
improvement in Areva’s credit profile, but take some comfort from Areva’s latest results and
the recent headlines about possible cooperation with China National Nuclear Corporation
(CNNC). Main credit drivers in the short-to-medium term will be 1. the final price that is agreed
with EDF for buying Areva NP, 2. the size of the equity contribution from its majority
shareholder, France, (before year-end) and 3. the final outcome of the Flamanville vessel
inspection (mid-2016). We take comfort from the strong commitment from the French state,
which also includes its involvement in the ongoing negotiations in the Areva NP sale with
EDF. Therefore, we keep our hold recommendation on the name. We regard the CEIFP
4.375% 11/19 as the most attractive bond on the Areva curve, offered at around 225bp in Zspread terms.
Michael Gerstner (UniCredit Bank)
+49 89 378-15449
[email protected]
Bilfinger (Sell)
Wednesday, 9 December
UniCredit Research
Bloomberg reports that Bilfinger (--/BB+n/--) will be seeking bids for its Power division already
in January in an effort to divest the business by the end of 1H15. The company is looking for
EUR 200-300mn for the business, according to unidentified sources. The Power division is
expected to have output of around EUR 1.2bn in 2015 with an EBITA loss of around EUR
100mn (EUR 8mn in 2014). This would be basically in line with the net proceeds of around
EUR 220mn that the company received for its Construction business at the end of 2014 (2014
output: EUR 600mn, EBITA about EUR -39mn). The article says that Bilfinger is reaching out
to companies and private-equity bidders. At this point, we think that it is far from guaranteed
that Bilfinger will be able to sell the division by its target date or that it will be able to achieve
the amount that it is seeking. S&P has said that if Bilfinger does not manage to sell the
division by the end of 1H15, it will consider lowering its rating further. Moreover, Bilfinger has
not specified how it would use the proceeds, but we assume that a major part would be used
for expanding into new product segments or geographies rather than for deleveraging, as the
company’s EBITA has shrunk considerably in the last few years and its business profile has
become less diversified. The company is guiding for 2015 EBITA of EUR 150-170mn in
continuing operations (2014: EUR 198mn, adjusted EUR 270mn; 2013: EUR 349mn, adjusted
page 7
11 December 2015
Credit Research
EUR 415mn). This compares to gross debt of EUR 561mn as of 3Q15. Considering these
risks and uncertainties, we think that the GBFGR 2.375% 12/19 is trading quite tight at a midyield of 2.2% and we therefore reiterate our sell recommendation.
Jonathan Schroer, CFA (UniCredit Bank)
+49 89 378-13212
[email protected]
Cirsa (Buy)
This morning, Cirsa (B2p/B+s/--) announced the acquisition of two casinos in Morocco: 1. A
82% stake in one casino in Agadir, Morocco, a resort town on Morocco’s South Atlantic coast.
The casino operates 191 slot machines and 21 tables. The total cash consideration for the
casino was EUR 22mn, which represents an EBITDA multiple of 5x. 2. A 51% stake in a
second casino in Agadir, which operates 95 slot machines and 10 tables. The second
acquisition is expected to be closed in January 2016 for a total cash consideration of EUR
3mn. The minority interests in the two acquired casinos will continue to be held by local
partners. Cirsa highlighted that the acquisitions will be funded with available cash. In our view,
the acquisitions are part of the company’s strategy to consider selective acquisitions in
geographic markets. However, Morocco was a surprise for us, as Cirsa is mainly active in
countries such as Spain, Latin America and Italy. All in all, we keep our buy recommendation
following management’s encouraging 2016 outlook and still see some upside for the 2023
bond, which has recovered significantly since September. We note that Cirsa is one of the
fastest-growing high-yield gaming companies in our coverage (compared to Gamenet, Snai
and IGT) and has only limited exposure to adverse Italian regulation (4.6% of its 9M15
EBITDA). However, we note the company’s exposure to FX devaluation risk in Latin America
(25.6% of EBITDA generated in Argentina, 14.1% in Colombia and 6.2% in Mexico).
Mehmet Dere (UniCredit Bank)
+49 89 378 11294
[email protected]
Dr. Silke Stegemann (UniCredit Bank)
+49 89 378-18202
[email protected]
FCA (Buy)
Monday, 7 December
UniCredit Research
In a presentation dated 4 December in London, FCA (B1p/BB-p/BB-s) provided an update on
its 2018 business plan from May 2014. FCA said that there would be no significant changes
to its key initiatives, but the following changes impact the plan: regional industry performance,
shifts in brand performance, cadence of product launches, capital market transactions, Ferrari
separation and FX environment. FCA now expects its net industrial debt to be more than EUR
3bn lower than in its original business plan for FY15-18. The company now targets net debt of
EUR 6.6-7.1bn (FY15) and net cash of >2.0bn (FY18). Major reasons for this are the USD
2.875bn 7.875% 12/16 mandatory convertible bonds, FCA treasury shares and cash exit
rights, the Ferrari IPO and spin-off, and the expected reduction of positive FCF from the
Ferrari spin-off. The Ferrari demerger and spin-off of its 80%-stake to FCA holders of shares
and mandatory convertible securities were recently approved by FCA’s EGM, and are
expected to be carried out in early January 2016. Ferrari recently signed a EUR 2.5bn
syndicated credit facility comprising a bridge and term loan of EUR 2bn and an RCF of EUR
500mn, with the proceeds of the Bridge and Term loan to be used to refinance debt owing to
FCA and others. In 4Q15, FCA received EUR 0.9bn in IPO proceeds and the Ferrari spin-off
will reduce net industrial debt by another EUR 0.7bn in 1Q16. Regarding liquidity, FCA
repeated its goal to reduce its liquidity to EUR 15-20bn (vs. EUR 22bn at FYE15) after the
removal of FCA US ring-fencing in 1H16. FCA previously planned its capex peak for 2016 at
around EUR 11bn, but now plans the capex peak for 2017 to support the heavy cadence of
new/refreshed product programs, but still aims to reduce capex to EUR 8.5-9.5bn in 2018.
According to Automotive News Europe, CEO Sergio Marchionne said that FCA does not plan
page 8
11 December 2015
Credit Research
a hostile bid for GM (Ba1s/BBB-s/BBB-s) at the moment and will focus on executing its
growth plan to 2018 until the right and willing partner is found. The CEO said that FCA would
present an updated product plan in January due to changes in the market, such as a slowing
growth in China, which could include some Alfa Romeo and Maserati product launches being
delayed and the target for Jeep SUVs in NAFTA being raised (2mn units in 2018, instead of
the previously planned 1.87mn). FCA’s FY15 guidance (excl. the Ferrari spin-off in January
2016, but to reflect the Ferrari IPO proceeds of USD 982.4mn in 4Q15) is as follows:
worldwide shipments of around 4.8mn (+4.3% yoy vs. FY14: 4.6mn units); revenue yoy of
more than EUR 110bn (+14.5% yoy from FY14: EUR 96.1bn); adjusted EBIT (excl. unusual
items) of over EUR 4.5bn (FY14: EUR 3.6bn); adjusted net income of around EUR 1.2bn
(FY14: EUR 0.6bn); and net industrial debt of EUR 6.6-7.1bn (3Q15: EUR 7.8bn; FY14: EUR
7.7bn). FCA will not pay a dividend in FY15. FCA recently said that there are no immediate
plans to dispose of Magneti Marelli. For details on the credit profile and credit outlook, please
refer to our Euro High Yield & Crossovers publication of 18 September, from page 216. We
keep our buy recommendation on FCAIM bonds. Please refer to our latest comment for our
rationale. From a one-month perspective, the most attractive bonds are the FCAIM 10/19 (EUR)
and the 6/17 (EUR) bonds. The least attractive are the 7/18 (EUR) and 7/22 (EUR) bonds.
Dr. Sven Kreitmair, CFA (UniCredit Bank)
+49 89 378-13246
[email protected]
FTE Automotive (Hold)
Monday, 7 December
FTE Automotive (B2s/Bs) held a conference call on its 3Q numbers. The company said that
its DCT sales in 9M15 represented 5% of group revenues or EUR 19mn (compared to 1H15:
1% or EUR 1.3mn). FTE said that it expects the non-linear growth of its DCT business to
continue into FY15/16. The company said that it repaid EUR 5mn of its EUR 15mn RCF
drawing in November and expects to fully pay back the remaining drawdown of EUR 10mn
over time. In addition, FTE presented some new applications and products in electric shift
technology and electric pump technology (metal-to-plastic-substitution), where it already has
orders, but which are not yet in serial production and would later lead to revenues. FTE said
that it could not comment regarding the potential exit of its sponsors, and that there is no
decision yet regarding the call of its bond. Regarding its VW exposure, it has seen no impact
on its business. For our comment on 3Q15 numbers, please refer to our HY Daily dated 30
November. In 3Q15, FTE’s adjusted gross (net) leverage (UniCredit Research) was 4.7x
(4.4x) vs. 5.2x (4.9x) qoq and 5.3x (4.9x) yoy. For details on FTE’s credit profile and on our
model, please refer to our Euro High Yield & Crossovers publication of 18 September, from
page 239. We keep our hold recommendation on the FTEAU 20 bond, which trades at a price
of 106.5/108 (YTW of 5.3%/3.0%) given the bond’s call structure. We note that, at the end of
October, Reuters reported – citing two people familiar with the matter – that Bain Capital is
preparing to sell or float FTE Automotive to take advantage of high sector valuations. After
receiving expressions of interest from Asian groups, Bain asked Rothschild to sound out
options for FTE, including a sale or IPO, which could take place as early as mid-2016, the
sources said. Prior to its first call date on 15 July 2016 at 104.5, the FTEAU 20 bond has a
40% IPO claw-back at 109 and a make-whole call at 50bp. The documentation also contains
a change-of-control put at 101. In the absence of an exit, a potential scenario for a bond call
could be the issuance of a new bond or bank loan to refinance the bond call plus the RCF
drawings and, depending on the leverage development and the macro picture, perhaps
another repayment of the shareholder loan.
+49 89 378-13246
[email protected]
UniCredit Research
page 9
11 December 2015
Credit Research
Faurecia (Buy)
Monday, 7 December
Today, Faurecia (Ba3s/--/BB-s) launched the early redemption of its 2018 3.25% EUR 250mn
OCEANE bonds, which are convertible into and/or exchangeable for new or existing shares.
This early redemption will be effective 16 January, please find the technical details on
Faurecia’s website. Thanks to the evolution of the Faurecia share price, which is significantly
higher than the bond redemption price, this early redemption should lead to the conversion of
most of the bonds issued into shares. By the end of November 2015, 4.35mn bonds (of a total
of 12.83mn issued) had already been converted into shares, signaling investor confidence.
The company stated that the early redemption should enable Faurecia to reduce its debt by
around EUR 250mn. Combined with other debt-management operations already carried out,
Faurecia confirmed its target to reduce its financial expenses by nearly EUR 50mn in 2015
and by another EUR 50mn in 2016. Please refer to our comment on 3Q15 revenues in our HY
Daily on 15 October. Despite its comparatively longer modified duration, we continue to have
a buy recommendation on the EOFP 6/22 bond, which trades below par, around 3.3% in yield
and with a Z-spread of 277bp. The EOFP 6/22 also trades quite close to Peugeot’s 5Y CDS
curve. In the absence of larger M&A, we expect a rating upgrade of Faurecia by one notch to
mid-BB as a result of the achievement of 2015 and 2016 guidance, together with the debt
reduction from the conversion of its 1/18 EUR 250mn OCEANE (convertible bond) in January
2016. Such a rating upgrade is not priced into the current yield level of the EOFP 6/22 bond.
The prerequisite for a rating upgrade is, however, a continued positive growth rate in global
automotive production. We expect Faurecia to refinance its 9.375% EUR 490mn bond maturing
December 2016 via the bond market. For details on Faurecia’s credit profile and our model,
please refer to our Euro High Yield & Crossovers publication (18 September; from page 228).
+49 89 378-13246
[email protected]
Goodyear (Hold)
Tuesday, 8 December
UniCredit Research
Goodyear (Ba2s/BBs/BB-s) announced that its slightly-better-rated European subsidiary,
Goodyear Dunlop Tires Europe B.V. (GDTE; Ba1s/BBs/BBs), will commence a private
offering of EUR 250mn senior notes due 2023. The notes will be senior unsecured obligations
of GDTE and will be guaranteed on a senior unsecured basis by Goodyear and certain of its
wholly-owned US and Canadian subsidiaries that also guarantee Goodyear’s obligations
under certain of its senior secured credit facilities and senior unsecured notes. The issuance
and sale of the notes are subject to market and other customary closing conditions. GDTE
intends to use the net proceeds from this offering, together with its current cash and cash
equivalents, to redeem in full the EUR 250mn aggregate principal amount of its 6.75% 4/19
senior notes (Ba1/BB/BB). The GT 6.75% 4/19 bond has been callable since 4 April 2015 at
103.375 and the call price will decline to 101.688 from 14 April 2016. On 2 November, GT
issued USD 1bn in 5.125% 11/23 notes with a slightly weaker bond rating (Ba3/BB/BB-) and
redeemed USD 1bn 8.25% 2020 senior notes on 7 December. With its 3Q15 results, GT
affirmed its 2015-16 financial targets: SOI growth of between 10-15% p.a., annual positive
FCF from operations and adjusted debt/EBITDAP of 2-2.1x at FYE 2016. The key SOI drivers
in 2015 will be global volume growth of 1-2%, price/mix vs. raw materials of USD 370mn
(previous: USD 330mn), cost savings vs. inflation of USD 0mn (previous: USD 70mn), FX of
USD 160mn (previous: USD 200mn), the Amiens closure worth USD 20mn and other tirerelated of USD 20mn (previous: USD 0mn). We calculate improved gross debt/EBITDA (adj.)
of 3.4x in LTM9M15 vs. 3.5x qoq. The company’s most important recovery driver has been its
segment North American Tire, which, in 9M15, accounted for 54% of GT’s group EBIT. In
FY11-14, the company was able to reduce its adjusted gross leverage from around 6-7x in
FY08/09 by improving its EBITDA, generating FCF before pension funding of between USD
600-900mn p.a. and injecting significant amounts of capital into pension funding.
page 10
11 December 2015
Credit Research
Subsequently, there has been a series of rating upgrades over the past few years. Moody’s
hurdle ratios for an upgrade are EBITA/interest ≥4.0x (3Q15: 2.85x) and debt/EBITDA of 2.0x
(3Q15: 3.1x). At S&P, an upgrade is possible if FOCF/adjusted debt is ≥15% (1H15: 13.5%)
and if GT maintains debt/EBITDA of <2x (1H15: 2.78x) on a sustained basis. Goodyear will
report FY15 results on 16 February 2016 and we would expect some improvement of credit
metrics, given that GT usually generates most FCF seasonally in its 4Q results. Nevertheless,
this might not be enough to justify rating upgrades as soon as with FY15 results. On the
credit-positive side, GT’s 2014-16 capital allocation plan is for USD 800-900mn of debt
repayments and pension funding, which is aimed at further strengthening its leverage metrics
and advancing its objective of achieving an investment grade credit rating. We keep our hold
recommendation for the euro-denominated GT 6.75% 4/19 (Ba1/BB/BB; EUR 250mn), which
offers no price upside potential given that it was already priced to call. Given the likelihood of
further rating upgrades in 2016 (if continuously supported by stable North American and
European tire market environment, the low oil price and the planned debt repayments), we
could, however, see the new bond as more attractive depending on its yield. The USDdenominated bonds GT 7/22 (Ba3/BB/BB-) trade at a yield of 3.6% and the GT 11/23
(Ba3/BB/BB-) at a yield of 4.5%. We note that another bond, the GT 6.5% 3/21 (USD 1bn),
will also be callable from 1 March 2016 @ 104.875, (minimum 30 days call notice).
+49 89 378-13246
[email protected]
Matterhorn Telecom (Sell)
Tuesday, 8 December
Yesterday, Salt (Matterhorn Telecom) announced that CEO Johan Andsjö has decided to
leave Salt with immediate effect. Pierre-Alain Allemand (former executive VP of SFR) will act
as interim CEO while a successor for Johann Andsjö is sought. Since the recent ownership
change at Salt, Pierre-Alain Allemand has been working at Salt assisting the executive team
drive transformation initiatives with operational and economic efficiencies. We note that in
May, CTO Johann Hall, and in mid-June, Matthias Hilpert (Chief Commercial Officer), Tonio
Meier (Chief Customer Operations Officer) and CFO Yann Leca left the company. These four
positions have since been filled. Given the company’s operating weakness and lack of
transparency, the surprising move by Salt’s CEO adds further uncertainty/risk to an
investment in this company’s bonds. Salt’s press release stated that it was Johan Andsjö’s
decision to leave the company, with no further explanation. Also, the press release contained
no expression of gratitude for his service since 1 October 2012 for Orange CH/Salt CH.
Hence, we assume that Johan Andsjö’s move was driven by opposing opinions about Salt’s
direction going forward. We have a sell recommendation for MATTER bonds.
Stephan Haber, CFA (UniCredit Bank)
+49 89 378-15192
[email protected]
Oi (Hold)
UniCredit Research
Yesterday, Moody’s placed its Baa3 rating on Brazil (Baa3cwn/BB+n/BBB-n) on review for
downgrade. This review for downgrade is driven by the following: 1. rapidly and materially
deteriorating macroeconomic and fiscal trends, and a diminished likelihood of trend reversal
in the next 2-3 years; 2. worsening governability conditions and an increased risk of policy
paralysis. Moody’s stated that fiscal and economic activity indicators continue to sharply
deteriorate with no clear indications as to when they will bottom out. Although the telecoms
business is supposed to be non-cyclical, or rather less cyclical, a deteriorating macroeconomic environment is clearly negative for Oi’s (Ba3n/BB+n/BBn) operating development
and its target to become FCF positive over time. Moreover, such a macro-economic outlook
page 11
11 December 2015
Credit Research
reduces the valuation for Oi and thereby perhaps also the probability of support from
LetterOne. In addition, yesterday, Tim Paticipacoes’ CEO, Rodrigo Abreu, was quoted as
saying that Tim has not received a proposal from Oi [yet], nor is Tim in negotiations with Oi. In
our view, this statement is not a big surprise as Oi and LetterOne have first to reach an
agreement and work out a proposal to combine Oi and Tim, before the management of Tim,
or more likely the management of Telecom Italia, can be contacted. These headlines have led
to further selling pressure on OIBRBZ bonds and they jumped to a new all-time low, given not
only seasonally reduced liquidity in this name. We still assume that Oi will be part of the
consolidation in the Brazilian telecoms market. We continue to have a hold recommendation
on OIBRBZ bonds, especially after the bonds fell strongly on the recent negative news flow
and sentiment. This could change drastically if Oi is able to announce a potential transaction,
e.g. with LetterOne. The weak macro-economic development is not a surprise, nor is the
statement from Tim’s CEO.
+49 89 378-15192
[email protected]
RCS & RDS (Hold)
Monday, 7 December
RCS & RDS reported 3Q15 results that were above our expectations, showing sustained,
strong top-line growth with a slight margin improvement qoq. Revenues of EUR 193.6mn in
3Q15 were up 13.8% yoy (UniCredit EUR 180mn). Although there was some seasonal
weakness in that the growth dynamic was down somewhat over the previous periods (1H15:
15.6%), the company managed to increase revenues sequentially as well (2Q15: EUR
185.5mn). The EBITDA margin was stable relative to 1H15 at 31.5% and EBITDA of EUR
60.9mn (UniCredit: EUR 56mn, margin 31%). This was a clear improvement over the level of
around EUR 56-57mn that the company has generated each quarter since 2Q14. We
calculate leverage at 2.8x, which is down slightly from 2.9x in 2Q15 (RCS & RDS calculation),
although this can deviate somewhat from RCS & RDS’s reported figure depending on some
other items that are included in debt (e.g. hedging). Therefore, leverage was basically stable
qoq, as we expected. The main disappointment in the results is that RCS & RDS was again
not able to lower capex, as the company has targeted, with a figure of EUR 57mn in 3Q15.
This leads to EUR 162mn through 9M15, which means that the company is on track to
significantly exceed the EUR 180mn target stated earlier this year. This drove FCF into
negative territory again (EUR -6mn) and increased net debt (currency movements were likely
another factor). In operational terms, top-line growth was evidently driven by subscriber
additions, as pricing trends were often negative or positive by low single digits in 3Q15.
Pricing in mobile telephony was up again and there were around 120,000 subscriber additions
to 1.7mn. It therefore looks like it will take a few more quarters before RCS & RDS reaches its
target of 2.0mn subscribers, which is the point where the company thinks that the mobile
products will be sustainably profitable.
RCS & RDS had a good quarter operationally in the most recent quarter, which can be softer
due to the vacation period. Nevertheless, sustained subscriber growth paid off for the first
time in a while in an improvement in EBITDA, which has been range-bound for several
quarters. If the company can sustain – or grow – this level of EBITDA in the future, then the
company could begin a deleveraging trend in the coming quarters. The main concern remains
capex which looks set to exceed EUR 200mn in 2015 and thus even come in above the figure
from last year of EUR 201mn.
The CBLCSY bond has had a very strong performance since the beginning of October, which
we believe is largely driven by rising demand for CEE assets in the context of expected looser
ECB policy in 2016. In addition, investors appear to have a positive impression of Romania in
a regional context, as demonstrated by the recent placement of the 10/25 Romanian
UniCredit Research
page 12
11 December 2015
Credit Research
government bond with a coupon of 2.75% (currently yielding 2.5%). We believe this has
helped CBLCSY to outperform ADRBID recently (Z-spread 103bp tighter than ADRBID
currently). Both CEE bonds have significantly outperformed high-yield cable peers over the
last three months and CBLCSY has been by far the best performer in the peer group over the
last month. Moreover, with yields in CEE declining, we believe the likelihood that RCS & RDS
will call the bond in November 2016 has increased. CBLCSY is trading near an all-time high,
which would be a clear sell indication as there are similarly rated bonds within the high-yield
cable universe with more attractive yields. However, we are reiterating our hold
recommendation for now based on two factors: 1. The bonds are not very liquid, leading to a
wide bid/ask spread. As a result, the current ask price implies a yield of 4.8% (compared to a
bid yield of 2.6%), which represents an attractive carry, assuming that the bonds are likely to
be called in November 2016. 2. Investors who want exposure to CEE may find the stability of
CBLCSY as well as the current yield attractive in a regional context. However, for investors
looking for high-yield cable exposure, CBLCSY no longer looks attractive and we would
recommend switching into higher-yielding Altice or Liberty Global issues.
Jonathan Schroer, CFA (UniCredit Bank)
+49 89 378-13212
[email protected]
TUI (Hold)
UniCredit Research
TUI AG (Ba3s/BB-s/--) released solid FY14/15 results above our expectations on the turnover
and EBITDA level, marked by increasing activity in Cruises and the strong performance of the
Northern Region segment. The company reported that in FY14/15 underlying turnover increased
by 8% yoy to EUR 20,012mn (FY13/14: EUR 18,537mn). The turnover increase was driven by a
rise in customer numbers and the increase in average prices in some segments, which again
reflected the pricing power of TUI Group. The company’s reported underlying EBITA rose by
23% to EUR 1,069mn or by 15.4% (excl. FX effects). This was driven by a particularly good
performance of Northern Region, Hotels & Resorts and Cruises, despite the tragic events in
Tunisia and other geopolitical challenges earlier in the year. In terms of EBITA by segments,
Source Markets underlying EBITA increased to EUR 703mn from EUR 643mn yoy, driven by a
strong trading performance in the UK (5% increase in customers), in spite of the tragic events in
Tunisia at the end of June. This offset continued competitive market conditions in Germany and
poor North Africa trading in France. In Hotels & Resorts, underlying FY14/15 EBITA increased
to EUR 235mn from EUR 203mn the year before, driven by strong underlying performance, in
particular by RIU and Robinson, offsetting a EUR 27mn negative impact from the events in
Tunisia. In Cruises, underlying EBITA increased to EUR 81mn (FY13/14: EUR 10mn),
particularly reflecting the full-year benefit of new capacities and the continued turnaround of
Hapag-Lloyd Kreuzfahrten. Following the IPO of Hapag-Lloyd on 6 November 2015, TUI booked
a EUR 147mn impairment for its 12.3% stake. Reported operating cash flow decreased to EUR
698mn vs. EUR 938mn in FY13/14, mainly due to weaker working-capital generation. Capex
also increased remarkably, to EUR 489mn vs. EUR 285mn, due to hotel investments and the
acquisition of Europa 2 (cruise ship). TUI reported net debt of EUR 214mn from a net cash
position of EUR 293mn for FY13/14. The rise in net debt was related to 1. EUR 127mn from
negative FX movements, 2. an additional EUR 693mn in asset-backed finance, primarily in
relation to new aircraft deliveries under finance lease, as well as 3. the mainly debt-financed
acquisition of Europa 2. TUI notes that its capital structure has been simplified significantly
during the year as a result of the conversion of most of the outstanding TUI AG and TUI Travel
PLC convertible bonds. In terms of outlook, TUI stated that, taking into account the continued
cessation of flights in and out of Sharm el Sheikh in Egypt by several countries, current trading
for Winter 2015/16 and Summer 2016 is in line with expectations. For the winter season, TUI
reports 60% sold to date with flat bookings and average selling prices up 4%. Overall Source
Market long-haul bookings are up 9%. Hence, for FY15/16 the company expects to deliver
growth in brand turnover of 5% and in underlying EBITA of at least 10% and reiterates the
page 13
11 December 2015
Credit Research
previous guidance of at least 10% underlying EBITA CAGR over the three years from FY14/15
to FY17/18. TUI also targets net capex and investments of around EUR 750mn. For FY15/16
TUI has also set new financial targets based on a leverage ratio of 2.75-3.5x (3.0x in FY14/15),
and an interest coverage ratio of 4.5-5.5x (4.7x in FY14/15). TUI stated that it intends to adjust
these target corridors further in subsequent financial years to support its goal of improving its
credit rating. A strategic review of Hotelbeds is also underway, including a potential disposal of
the business, with the carve-out from Inbound Services expected to complete at the end of 2015
or beginning of 2016. As a reminder, in November, Bloomberg reported that TUI plans to sell its
Hotelbeds online booking unit for around EUR 1bn. TUI runs Hotelbeds as an independent
company. Hotelbeds offers rooms to online and traditional travel agencies and airlines with a
database of beds at more than 72,000 hotels worldwide, plus transfers and tours. We like TUI’s
commitment to its current rating and also its target for a neutral net financial debt position by
FYE 2014/15. Furthermore, we note TUI’s diversified and stable business profile and its scale as
Europe’s largest tour operator. We therefore keep our hold recommendation on the name.
Mehmet Dere (UniCredit Bank)
+49 89 378 11294
[email protected]
Michael Gerstner (UniCredit Bank)
+49 89 378-15449
[email protected]
TeamSystem (Hold)
Tuesday, 8 December
Yesterday afternoon Sky News reported, citing unidentified “sources”, that TeamSystem (B2n/Bs/--) will be acquired by Hellman & Friedmann (H&F) for EUR 1.2bn (GBP 850mn). The article
stated that HgCapital had agreed to sell TeamSystem to H&F. In the evening, TeamSystem
confirmed that H&F will acquire a controlling interest in TeamSystem Holding SpA from
HgCapital, Bain Capital, ICG and management. According to the statement, HgCapital and
management will remain invested in the company via minority stakes. No further information
was released (no purchase price, no refinancing information, etc.).We note that the purchase
price of EUR 1.2bn (EV) mentioned by Sky News reflects a relatively high valuation. Assuming
an expected EBITDA of around EUR 86-87mn in FY16 (EUR 79mn including future synergies in
FY15 would result in an EV/EBITDA multiple of 15x), the EV/EBITDA multiple would be at
around 13-14x. We note that in 2010, TeamSystem was acquired (by HgCapital) for an
enterprise value of EUR 565mn, representing 11.3x FY10 EBITDA.
In TeamSystem’s recent 3Q15 conference call, management stated that it is talking to a
number of potential PE investors, “while there is no concrete plan/timing for an exit so far”.
Hence, such a transaction does not come as a complete surprise. We note that TeamSystem
was owned by HgCapital (53%), Bain Capital (23%), its management (16%) and ICG (7%).
Given that in the announcement the company stated that HgCapital will “roll a minority portion
of its proceeds into the new transaction”, we assume that the new transaction might change
the capital structure of TeamSystem. Current leverage is already at 5.5x (which already
includes future synergies), which is above the bond incurrence covenant of 5.0x. Hence, we
expect that the existing bond will called at its first call date on 15 May 2016 at 103.6875 and
that the capital structure of the company will be changed. Given that the company is already
B2n/B-s rated by Moody’s and S&P, we do not see much room for additional debt load at this
company for the time being, despite its strong growth potential.
We keep our hold recommendation on the TITANL 7.375% 05/20 bond. At current valuations,
we see little upside potential for the TITANL 7.375% 05/20 bond, as the bond will become
callable on 15 May 2016 (@103.6875) and already trades above this call level. We note that
an existing portability clause either does not apply (leverage >4.25x) or will probably not be
used, as the bond trades significantly above 101.
+49 89 378-15192
[email protected]
UniCredit Research
page 14
11 December 2015
Credit Research
Voith (Hold)
Yesterday Voith (Ba1s/--/--) released FY14/15 results that were in line with guidance, showing
strongly improved cash-flow generation in the second half of the year. Following an
announcement in February 2015, the Industrial Services division is now reported as a
discontinuing operation, thereby somewhat distorting the whole picture compared to guidance,
which was given for constant scope. The figures below hence only refer to continuing
operations. The company delivered slightly increased sales and stable new orders (+3% and
+0% yoy, respectively), while both figures benefitted from positive currency effects. Despite
sales of EUR 4.3bn and new orders amounting to EUR 4.4bn, the company’s backlog fell from
EUR 5.4bn at FYE 2013/14 to EUR 5.3bn as of end-September, obviously as a result of order
cancellations. Profit from operations as calculated by the company rose by 15%, with a
remarkably improved contribution to profitability from the Paper segment, though admittedly
from a very low level. The bottom line suffered from further restructuring charges of EUR 185mn
(FY13/14: EUR 30mn), with a deeply negative net result of EUR -93mn (FY13/14: EUR 41mn),
while clearly improved compared to the first half of the year (1H14/15: EUR -131mn). FOCF
after capex of EUR 48mn for the full year (FY13/14: EUR 57mn) was still strongly affected by an
increase of working capital of EUR 140mn for the whole year, whereas at least in the second
half of the year working capital declined by EUR 82mn. Also due to the acquisition of a 25.1%
stake in KUKA in December 2014, net debt surged to EUR 722mn (FYE14/15: EUR 145mn).
In a difficult environment affecting four of Voith’s five end markets, i.e. energy, oil and gas,
paper, and raw materials, the company’s self-help measures seem to be starting to pay off. The
company should in a position to benefit if conditions improve. However, all these markets
continue to have to deal with subdued expectations with no clear perspective of improvement in
sight. Furthermore, next year the company may not be able to benefit from currency tailwinds as
it has this year. For its other markets, transport and automotive, the company remains optimistic.
All in all, for FY15/16 Voith guides for stable sales and orders received, improving operating
results and a clearly positive net result. The FY14/15 numbers should translate into continuously
constrained credit metrics. RCF/net debt as adjusted by Moody’s should increase somewhat to
the mid-teens (LTM 1H14/15: 9.7%), whereas debt/EBITDA may remain at the elevated level of
1H14/15, i.e. around 7.2x. Moody’s regards RCF/net debt in the high teens as commensurate
with the current Ba1 rating, while a debt/EBITDA ratio sustainably above 4.5x would imply rating
pressure. Adjusting for the one-off restructuring effects, we calculate numbers that would largely
satisfy the agency’s requirements. Furthermore, the targeted sale of the Industrial Services
business, if successful, will clearly lift credit metrics to acceptable levels. On a different note, the
company announced the founding of a new group division called Digital Solutions. The new
division will be formed to pool the digitalization and automation businesses, aiming at enhancing
growth in digital markets. Digital Solutions will start with about 600 employees and revenues of
EUR 250mn from current business. While there may be benefits from this concentration at some
stage, we hope no further material restructuring charges will accompany it, becoming a
permanent item in the company’s results as opposed to being a one-off. Moody’s already
cautioned that for the Ba1 rating the majority of restructuring expenses should be provided by
now, to allow leverage ratios to come down from elevated levels in FY15/16.
The most severe threat to Voith retaining its current rating comes from the company’s
rumored pursuit of a takeover of KUKA, which we recently addressed in our High Yield &
Crossover Update (26 Nov). As, on the one hand, operational results are improving, but on
the other, there are risks such as a possible acquisition of KUKA on the road ahead, and also
due to the short bond maturity, we do not see yesterday’s results materially affecting the
VOITGR 06/17 bond price and keep our hold recommendation on the name.
+49 89 378-15192
[email protected]
UniCredit Research
David Bertholdt (UniCredit Bank)
+49 89 378-13211
[email protected]
page 15
11 December 2015
Credit Research
HY Issuers and Bonds
Sec
CON
Name Instrument
Accor (Hold)
FR0012005924 4.125% PERP (SUB)
PX Yield
Spd
TR 1w
TR 1m
ER 1w
-1.5
-0.7
-0.6
ER 1m LQ
103
--/BB/BB
98.6
4.5
427
XS0776111188 9.875% 01/05/19
B2/B/--
107.4
3.6
253
-0.3
+0.5
+0.6
+1.5
-
XS0836495183 9.125% 01/02/20
B2/B/--
107.8
4.2
238
+0.2
+0.4
+1.1
+1.5
-
B2/B/--
106.7
5.9
450
+0.1
+0.7
+1.0
+1.7
-
B2/B+/--
105.6
4.7
460
-0.1
+1.3
+0.8
+2.4
-
--/BB+/BB+
99.0
4.1
374
-0.2
-0.2
+0.7
+0.9
+
Caa1/B-/--
110.2
4.9
473
-0.1
+0.7
+0.8
+1.8
+
Agrokor (Hold)
+0.4
+
AGROK
Albea Beauty (no rec)
ALBHSA
XS0783934168 8.75% 01/11/19
Alize (no rec)
ALLGRP
XS1137505290 6.25% 01/12/21
Arcelik (no rec)
ACKAF
XS1109959467 3.875% 16/09/21
Auris (no rec)
AUDIOL
XS1153374084 8% 15/01/23
Autodis (no rec)
AUTODI
XS0982711128 6.5% 01/02/19
B2/B/--
103.7
3.4
201
-0.2
+0.2
+0.7
+1.3
-
B3/CCC+/--
98.3
9.5
942
-1.0
-0.7
-0.1
+0.4
-
BE0933072291 6% 13/07/17
Ba1/BB+/--
108.1
0.9
89
-0.1
-0.1
+0.8
+1.0
+
BE6222320614 5.625% 15/06/21
Ba1/BB+/--
117.9
2.2
185
+0.0
+0.3
+0.8
+1.4
-
B2/B/--
94.0
8.6
853
-0.9
-0.3
+0.0
+0.8
-
B2/B+/--
87.9
7.1
672
-3.0
-2.7
-2.1
-1.7
+
B3/B/--
105.0
6.3
162
-0.4
+0.3
+0.5
+1.4
+
B3/B/B
105.8
4.2
366
+0.0
+1.7
+0.9
+2.7
-
Ba3/BB+/--
101.2
3.1
293
-0.5
+0.5
+0.4
+1.5
-
B1/B+/--
105.7
+0.0
+0.5
+0.9
+1.5
+
-2.9
-2.1
-1.9
-
XS1117280039 9% 15/11/20 (PIK)
Barry Callebaut (no rec)
Boing (no rec)
BARY
IMOCAR
XS1028951009 6.625% 15/07/19
Boparan (no rec)
BOPRLN
XS1082473395 4.375% 15/07/21
Bormioli Rocco (Hold)
BORMIO
XS0615235966 10% 01/08/18
Brakes Capital (no rec)
BRKCAP
XS1071435561 FRN 15/12/18
BUT (no rec)
B3/B-/--
BUTSAS
XS1080611970 7.375% 15/09/19
Campofrio (no rec)
CPFSM
XS1117299211 3.375% 15/03/22
Carlson Wagonlit (no rec)
CARWAG
XS0652911776 7.5% 15/06/19
Casino Guichard-Perrachon (Hold)
COFP 5Y CDS
FR0011606169 4.87% PERP (SUB)
312
--/BB/BB
93.7
7.3
714
-2.9
XS0506591519 8.75% 15/05/18
B3/B+/--
101.9
4.1
426
-0.5
+0.5
+0.4
+1.5
+
XS1227583033 5.875% 15/05/23
B3/B+/--
96.9
6.4
587
-1.4
+1.7
-0.5
+2.8
+
XS0604641034 6.25% 09/03/18
Ba2/BB+/--
107.9
2.6
260
+0.0
+0.5
+0.9
+1.5
+
XS1046851025 2.75% 18/03/19
Ba2/BB+/--
100.3
2.7
263
-0.5
+0.5
+0.4
+1.5
+
XS1114452060 2.875% 27/09/21
Ba2/BB+/--
99.6
3.0
261
-0.3
+0.7
+0.6
+1.8
+
Ba3/BB+/--
97.8
5.2
474
-0.1
+3.5
+0.8
+4.5
-
--/BB-/--
106.3
3.1
301
+0.1
+0.0
+1.0
+1.0
-
--/B/--
108.2
2.1
208
+0.1
+0.5
+1.0
+1.6
+
XS1251078009 6.25% 15/07/22
B1/B/--
106.3
4.8
454
+0.2
+1.0
+1.0
+2.0
+
XS1251078694 8.75% 15/07/23
Caa1/CCC+/--
104.1
7.7
749
+0.0
+2.1
+0.9
+3.1
+
Cirsa (Buy)
CIRSA
CNH Industrial (Sell)
Darling Ingredients (no rec)
CNHI
DAR
XS1240984754 4.75% 30/05/22
Darty (no rec)
DRTYLN
XS1038807340 5.875% 01/03/21
Deutsche Raststaetten (no rec)
TANKRA
XS0997664411 6.75% 30/12/20
Douglas (Hold)
Rating
ACFP 5Y CDS
DOUGR
Spd: FIX bonds – z-spread, FRN – discount margin, PIK bonds – mid swap, 5Y CDS spread
Source: Bloomberg, iBoxx, UniCredit Research
TR 1w/1m: weekly/monthly total return (%), ER 1w/1m weekly/monthly excess return vs. iBoxx HY NFI (%); LQ: Liquidity indicator
CON: Consumers, ENG: Energy, IDU: Industrials, TMT: TMT, FNL: Financials
UniCredit Research
page 16
11 December 2015
Credit Research
Sec
CON
Name Instrument
Dufry (no rec)
TR 1m
ER 1w
ER 1m LQ
105.7
3.0
284
-0.4
-0.1
+0.4
+0.9
-
Ba3/BB/BB-
104.7
3.6
326
-0.3
-0.2
+0.6
+0.8
-
XS0596918135 9.5% 01/03/18
Caa2/CC/--
69.7
30.8
2,892
+6.2
+10.4
+7.1
+11.5
-
XS0888936118 9.5% 01/03/18
Caa2/CC/--
67.1
32.3
3,103
+2.4
+7.0
+3.3
+8.1
-
Ba3/BB/BB
106.4
2.3
253
-0.4
-0.2
+0.5
+0.9
-
XS1028950704 5.125% 15/07/21
B2/B+/--
104.6
3.7
365
-0.8
-0.3
+0.1
+0.8
+
XS1241053666 5.75% 15/06/22
B3/B-/--
105.1
4.6
432
-0.7
+0.6
+0.2
+1.6
+
B1/--/BB-
98.5
3.4
294
-0.4
+3.3
+0.5
+4.3
+
XS0764640149 7% 23/03/17
B2/BB-/BB-
106.7
1.7
173
+0.0
+0.5
+0.9
+1.6
+
XS0305093311 5.625% 12/06/17
B2/BB-/BB-
105.6
1.8
188
-0.2
+0.4
+0.7
+1.4
+
XS0906420574 6.625% 15/03/18
B2/BB-/BB-
110.0
2.1
208
+0.0
+0.5
+0.9
+1.5
+
XS0647264398 7.375% 09/07/18
B2/BB-/BB-
112.6
2.3
229
+0.1
+0.5
+1.0
+1.5
+
EDCON
ELRFP
XS0808635600 6.5% 01/05/20
EUROCA
Faurecia (Buy)
EOFP
XS1204116088 3.125% 15/06/22
FCA (Buy)
FCAIM
XS0953215349 6.75% 14/10/19
B2/BB-/BB-
114.4
2.8
266
+0.0
+0.2
+0.9
+1.3
+
XS1048568452 4.75% 22/03/21
B2/BB-/BB-
107.9
3.1
284
-0.2
+0.5
+0.7
+1.5
+
XS1088515207 4.75% 15/07/22
B2/BB-/BB-
107.5
3.5
302
-0.3
+0.9
+0.6
+1.9
+
XS1054086928 FRN 15/04/19
B3/B-/--
84.7
10.5
1,065
-1.6
-6.0
-0.8
-4.9
+
XS1054087496 FRN 15/10/19
Caa2/CCC/--
75.9
16.0
1,607
-11.3
-13.4
-10.5
-12.3
-
--/CCC+/--
100.6
9.7
796
+0.1
+0.4
+1.0
+1.4
-
B2/B+/--
98.0
9.3
920
-0.7
-0.3
+0.1
+0.8
-
B2/B/--
107.1
4.8
445
+0.1
+1.6
+1.0
+2.6
-
Financiere Quick (no rec)
Findus (no rec)
QUIBB
FINDUS
XS1028948716 8.25% 01/08/19 (PIK)
Frigoglass (no rec)
FRIGOG
XS0932291007 8.25% 15/05/18
FTE Automotive (Hold)
FTEAU
XS0952827094 9% 15/07/20
Galapagos (no rec)
GALAPG
XS1071411547 FRN 15/06/21
B1/B/--
95.7
5.6
573
+0.2
-0.7
+1.1
+0.4
+
XS1071419524 5.375% 15/06/21
B1/B/--
96.8
6.2
577
+0.3
+0.7
+1.2
+1.8
+
Caa1/CCC+/--
87.6
9.6
921
-0.3
-4.2
+0.6
-3.1
+
B2/B/--
92.8
10.3
1,042
-2.4
+0.7
-1.5
+1.8
+
B1/BB/--
104.3
3.2
283
-0.1
+1.1
+0.8
+2.2
+
Ba1/BB/BB
103.7
1.1
31
-0.2
+0.1
+0.7
+1.2
+
XS1046537665 4.75% 01/04/21
B1/BB-/--
103.8
3.5
347
-0.7
+1.7
+0.2
+2.8
+
XS1246049073 5.125% 30/06/22
B1/BB-/--
104.5
4.1
380
-0.5
+2.3
+0.4
+3.3
-
XS1075833860 6.25% 15/06/19
--/B/--
77.0
15.1
1,486
+2.4
+5.6
+3.3
+6.7
+
XS1075799319 FRN 15/06/19
--/B/--
74.2
14.6
1,470
+3.1
+6.1
+4.0
+7.2
+
XS1075845526 8.5% 15/12/19
--/CCC+/--
48.4
32.9
3,227
+10.8
+12.9
+11.7
+14.0
+
XS1071420027 7% 15/06/22
Gamenet (Hold)
GAMENT
XS0954289913 7.25% 01/08/18
Gestamp (Hold)
GESTAM
XS0925126491 5.875% 31/05/20
Goodyear (Hold)
GT
XS0615238630 6.75% 15/04/19
Grupo Antolin (Buy)
ANTOLN
HEMABV
HTZ 5Y CDS
XS0995045951 4.375% 15/01/19
377
B2/B/--
103.9
3.1
302
+0.3
+0.4
+1.2
+1.5
+
Ba1/BB+/--
108.3
1.9
165
-0.3
+0.3
+0.6
+1.4
+
B2/B+/BB
105.9
5.8
560
+0.0
+0.9
+0.9
+2.0
-
HBMGR
DE000A1R02E0 3.875% 15/02/20
HP Pelzer (Hold)
TR 1w
Ba3/BB/BB-
Europcar (Hold)
Hornbach (Hold)
Spd
XS1266592457 4.5% 01/08/23
Elior (no rec)
Hertz (Sell)
PX Yield
XS1087753353 4.5% 15/07/22
Edcon Proprietary (no rec)
Hema (no rec)
Rating
DUFSCA
PELHOL
XS1028947585 7.5% 15/07/21
UniCredit Research
page 17
11 December 2015
Credit Research
Sec
CON
Name Instrument
Hydra (no rec)
Rating
PX Yield
Spd
TR 1w
TR 1m
ER 1w
ER 1m LQ
-0.1
+1.1
+1.0
+
HYDHLD
XS1059509429 FRN 15/04/19
Iglo Foods (no rec)
B2/B/--
IGBOND
XS1084586822 FRN 15/06/20
B1/BB-/--
100.4
3.8
396
+0.2
XS0564487568 6.625% 02/02/18
Ba2/BB+/--
109.5
2.2
211
-0.1
-0.2
+0.8
+0.8
+
XS1204431867 4.125% 15/02/20
Ba2/BB+/--
101.0
3.9
375
-0.5
+0.1
+0.4
+1.2
+
XS0860855930 4.75% 05/03/20
Ba2/BB+/--
101.9
4.2
411
-0.7
+0.3
+0.2
+1.4
+
XS1204434028 4.75% 15/02/23
Ba2/BB+/--
96.2
5.4
488
-1.0
-0.7
-0.1
+0.3
+
--/B/B
98.8
7.1
672
-1.2
-0.4
-0.3
+0.7
+
XS0947176631 9.75% 15/08/18
B1/B/BB-
105.4
6.5
636
-0.7
-0.4
+0.2
+0.6
-
XS1064899120 6% 15/05/21
B1/B/BB-
92.9
7.7
733
-1.2
-1.0
-0.3
+0.1
-
--/BB-/--
105.0
3.1
230
+0.0
+0.8
+0.9
+1.8
+
Ba3/BB/--
105.1
2.9
244
+1.8
+2.4
+2.7
+3.4
+
--/B/B+
106.1
3.0
294
-0.1
+0.5
+0.8
+1.5
-
IGT (Buy)
IGT
Ikks (no rec)
IKKSFR
XS1084836441 6.75% 15/07/21
Intralot (no rec)
INLOTG
IVS Group (no rec)
IVSIM
XS0911441409 7.125% 01/04/20
Jarden (no rec)
JAH
XS1084944096 3.75% 01/10/21
Labeyrie (no rec)
LABERE
XS1044528849 5.625% 15/03/21
Lufthansa (Hold)
LHAGR 5Y CDS
XS1109110251 1.125% 12/09/19
120
Ba1/BBB-/--
100.6
1.0
88
+0.1
-0.1
+0.9
+0.9
+
--/BB/--
103.2
4.5
417
-0.5
+0.8
+0.4
+1.9
+
B3/B/--
95.2
9.8
962
-0.2
-0.5
+0.7
+0.5
-
B2/B/--
103.4
6.6
757
+0.0
+0.6
+0.9
+1.6
-
B2/B-/--
104.5
6.9
678
+0.0
-0.1
+0.9
+0.9
+
Ba2/BB/--
98.1
3.1
267
-1.0
+0.4
-0.1
+1.5
-
--/BB+/--
97.5
4.7
432
-0.5
+1.0
+0.4
+2.1
+
B1/B/B
99.8
4.6
467
+0.0
+0.0
+0.9
+1.1
-
--/B/B+
111.0
3.0
280
+0.2
+1.4
+1.1
+2.4
+
Ba2/BB/--
98.6
3.3
283
-0.3
+0.6
+0.6
+1.6
+
Ba2/BB/--
107.0
2.4
226
+0.3
+0.8
+1.1
+1.8
+
FR0011233451 5.625% 11/07/17
Ba3/BB-/BB
107.0
1.2
122
+0.1
+0.2
+0.9
+1.3
+
FR0011439975 7.375% 06/03/18
Ba3/BB-/BB
113.2
1.4
138
-0.1
+0.6
+0.8
+1.7
+
FR0011567940 6.5% 18/01/19
Ba3/BB-/BB
115.6
1.4
132
+0.1
+1.1
+1.0
+2.2
+
FR0010014845 6% 19/09/33
Ba3/BB-/BB
112.9
4.9
363
-1.0
-0.1
-0.1
+1.0
+
B1/B+/BB-
103.4
3.6
353
-0.7
-0.5
+0.2
+0.6
+
B3/B-/CCC+
108.1
4.0
373
-0.1
+0.6
+0.8
+1.7
+
XS1271836600 5.125% 12/08/75 (SUB)
LuxGEO Travel (no rec)
LUXGEO
XS0879569464 7.5% 01/08/18
Magnolia (no rec)
MDMFP
XS0955023931 9% 01/08/20
Marcolin (no rec)
MCLIM
XS0991759076 8.5% 15/11/19
Merlin Entertainments (no rec)
MERLLN
XS1204272709 2.75% 15/03/22
Motherson (Buy)
MSSIN
XS1082399301 4.125% 15/07/21
New Look (no rec)
NEWLOK
XS1248517341 FRN 01/07/22
NH Hoteles (no rec)
NHHSM
XS0954676283 6.875% 15/11/19
Novalis (no rec)
ELISGP
XS1225112272 3% 30/04/22
ODEON & UCI Cinemas (no rec)
ODEON
XS0627135774 FRN 01/08/18
Ontex (Hold)
B3/CCC+/--
ONTEX
BE6272861657 4.75% 15/11/21
Peugeot (Hold)
UGFP
Piaggio (Sell)
PIAGIM
XS1061086846 4.625% 30/04/21
Picard Surgeles (no rec)
PICSUR
XS1117298833 7.75% 01/02/20
UniCredit Research
page 18
11 December 2015
Credit Research
Sec
CON
Name Instrument
Port Aventura (no rec)
B3/B-/--
XS0982712365 7.25% 01/12/20
B3/B-/--
104.0
Caa1/CCC+/--
102.1
B2/B/--
103.8
XS1080255067 4.75% 15/05/20
Rhiag (Hold)
TR 1m
ER 1w
ER 1m LQ
5.9
579
+0.1
+0.2
+1.0
+1.3
+
+0.0
+0.8
+0.9
+1.9
+
2.3
145
+0.0
+0.9
+0.9
+1.9
+
XS0986071453 FRN 15/12/19
B1/B/--
101.0
+0.6
-1.6
+1.4
-0.5
-
XS0986071537 7.25% 15/11/20
B1/B/--
107.3
3.1
296
-0.6
+0.4
+0.3
+1.4
+
B2/B/--
106.7
6.0
564
+0.3
+2.3
+1.2
+3.3
-
LPLAYG
XS1029172514 8.25% 15/02/21
Schaeffler (Buy)
SHAEFF 5Y CDS
XS0923613060 4.25% 15/05/18
146
Ba2/BB-/--
102.2
1.9
143
-0.1
+0.2
+0.8
+1.3
-
Ba3/B/--
103.6
4.1
355
-0.3
+0.2
+0.6
+1.3
+
XS1067862919 2.75% 15/05/19
Ba2/BB-/--
101.5
2.2
197
-0.1
+0.1
+0.8
+1.1
+
XS1067864881 3.25% 15/05/19
B1/B/--
101.7
2.6
230
-0.2
-0.2
+0.7
+0.8
+
XS1212469966 2.5% 15/05/20
Ba2/BB-/--
101.1
2.2
211
+0.0
+0.4
+0.9
+1.4
+
Ba3/B/--
108.1
2.9
295
-0.3
+0.6
+0.6
+1.7
+
XS1067864022 3.5% 15/05/22
Ba2/BB-/--
102.8
2.7
262
-0.1
+0.2
+0.8
+1.2
+
XS1212470972 3.25% 15/05/25
Ba2/BB-/--
98.6
3.5
263
-0.3
-0.7
+0.6
+0.4
+
B2/B+/--
97.3
7.3
705
-1.8
-0.8
-0.9
+0.3
+
B1/B/--
98.8
8.1
789
-0.2
-0.6
+0.6
+0.4
+
B3/B/--
107.4
3.4
293
+0.0
-0.1
+0.9
+0.9
-
XS0954907787 6.875% 15/08/18 (PIK)
XS1126486239 5.75% 15/11/21 (PIK)
Selecta (no rec)
SELNSW
XS1078234330 6.5% 15/06/20
Sisal Holding (no rec)
SISTP
XS0931919947 7.25% 30/09/17
SMCP (no rec)
SMCPFP
XS0943327378 8.875% 15/06/20
Snai (Sell)
SNAIM
XS0982712449 7.625% 15/06/18
XS0982711805 12% 15/12/18
Takko (no rec)
B2/B-/--
97.9
8.7
858
-0.7
-2.7
+0.2
-1.7
-
Caa2/CCC/--
94.4
14.6
1,436
-1.2
-5.8
-0.3
-4.8
-
Caa1/CCC+/--
61.5
28.6
2,840
-0.9
-7.5
+0.0
-6.4
+
B1/BB/BB
92.0
6.7
633
-3.2
+1.8
-2.3
+2.8
+
TAKKO
XS0908516080 9.875% 15/04/19
Tereos (no rec)
TEREOS
FR0011439900 4.25% 04/03/20
Tesco (Hold)
TSCOLN 5Y CDS
303
XS0992632702 1.25% 13/11/17
Ba1/BB+/BB+
99.9
1.3
132
+0.0
-0.1
+0.9
+1.0
+
XS0697395472 3.375% 02/11/18
Ba1/BB+/BB+
104.0
2.0
193
-0.2
-0.7
+0.7
+0.4
+
XS1082970853 1.375% 01/07/19
Ba1/BB+/BB+
96.7
2.4
228
-0.2
-1.4
+0.7
-0.4
+
XS0992638220 2.125% 12/11/20
Ba1/BB+/BB+
97.6
2.7
241
-0.1
-1.4
+0.8
-0.3
+
XS1082971588 2.5% 01/07/24
Ba1/BB+/BB+
90.5
3.8
311
-0.2
-2.2
+0.6
-1.1
+
XS0295018070 5.125% 10/04/47
Ba1/BB+/BB+
85.5
6.2
481
-0.6
-4.4
+0.2
-3.3
+
B2/B/--
105.4
5.1
500
-0.6
-1.0
+0.3
+0.1
-
XS0937169570 7.75% 15/06/20
--/B/B+
105.7
4.5
398
+0.3
+0.7
+1.2
+1.7
+
XS1172436211 6.75% 15/06/21
--/B/B+
106.1
5.1
502
+0.2
+0.5
+1.1
+1.5
-
Thom Europe (no rec)
THOEUR
XS1087760648 7.375% 15/07/19
Thomas Cook (Hold)
TCGLN
TUIGR 5Y CDS
XS1028943162 4.5% 01/10/19
120
Ba3/BB-/--
105.1
1.3
101
-0.1
+0.1
+0.8
+1.2
+
B1/B/--
95.4
7.4
751
-0.2
+2.3
+0.7
+3.3
+
B3/CCC+/--
106.1
5.7
520
-0.2
+0.7
+0.7
+1.7
+
TWSSBS
XS1086778641 FRN 15/07/19
UNIVEG
XS0992644038 7.875% 15/11/20
Volvo (Hold)
TR 1w
RHIGIM
Safari (no rec)
Univeg (no rec)
Spd
ICECR
XS0928190940 9.25% 15/05/18 (PIK)
Twinset (no rec)
PX Yield
XS0982712019 FRN 01/12/19
R&R Ice Cream (no rec)
TUI (Hold)
Rating
PORTAV
VLVY 5Y CDS
102
XS1150673892 4.2% 10/06/75 (SUB)
Ba1/--/BB+
98.5
4.6
439
-0.9
-0.9
+0.0
+0.1
+
XS1150695192 4.85% 10/03/78 (SUB)
Ba1/--/BB+
96.9
5.4
484
-1.6
-1.3
-0.7
-0.2
+
UniCredit Research
page 19
11 December 2015
Credit Research
Sec
CON
Name Instrument
Vougeot (no rec)
XS0953085627 FRN 15/07/20
WEPA (no rec)
PX Yield
Spd
TR 1w
TR 1m
ER 1w
ER 1m LQ
B2/B/--
WEPAHY
DE000A1TNA88 6.5% 15/05/20
B1/BB/--
106.6
3.0
246
-0.1
+0.2
+0.8
+1.2
-
DE000A14J7F8 2.25% 26/04/19
Ba2/BB/--
100.1
2.3
217
-0.1
+1.1
+0.8
+2.2
+
DE000A14J7G6 2.75% 27/04/23
Ba2/BB/--
96.6
3.3
272
-0.5
+1.7
+0.4
+2.7
+
B2/B+/--
102.1
6.2
503
+0.1
+0.6
+1.0
+1.6
-
--/--/BB-
97.6
5.2
517
-0.2
+0.3
+0.7
+1.3
+
Caa1*-/CCC+/--
59.8
20.1
1,980
+3.6
-23.6
+4.5
-22.6
+
ZF Friedrichshafen (Buy)
Zobele (Hold)
ZFFNGR
ZOBELE
XS0882293557 7.875% 01/02/18
ENG
Rating
VUECIN
Bulgarian Energy (no rec)
BULENR
XS0989152573 4.25% 07/11/18
CGG (no rec)
CGGFP
XS1061175607 5.875% 15/05/20
Chesapeake Energy (no rec)
CHK 5Y CDS
XS0273933902 6.25% 15/01/17
CP Energy (no rec)
3,677
B3/BB-*-/BB-*-
78.8
38.5
3,195
-3.9
-17.1
-3.0
-16.0
-
B1/--/B+
100.1
6.6
680
-3.2
-2.7
-2.3
-1.7
-
ENAPHO
XS0982708769 7% 01/02/21
EDP (Buy)
EDPPL
XS0399353506 0% 12/11/23
PTEDPUOM0024 5.375% 16/09/75 (SUB)
ENCE (no rec)
79.5
3.1
227
+0.5
+2.4
+1.4
+3.5
-
99.5
5.5
521
-1.3
+0.7
-0.4
+1.7
+
Ba3/BB-/--
103.6
4.6
432
-0.3
+0.8
+0.6
+1.9
-
ENCSM
XS1117280112 5.375% 01/11/22
Enel (Buy)
ENELIM 5Y CDS
87
XS0954675129 6.5% 10/01/74 (SUB)
Ba1/BB+/BBB-
108.8
3.5
343
-0.3
+0.0
+0.5
+1.1
-
XS1014997073 5% 15/01/75 (SUB)
Ba1/BB+/BBB-
105.3
3.6
346
-0.5
-0.3
+0.4
+0.7
-
Gas Natural (Hold)
GASSM 5Y CDS
XS1139494493 4.125% PERP (SUB)
99
Ba1/BB+/BBB-
97.0
4.7
413
-0.6
-0.6
+0.3
+0.5
+
Ba1/--/BBB-
88.8
5.1
435
-1.5
-2.9
-0.6
-1.8
+
XS0805582011 3.755% 15/03/17
Ba1/BB+/BBB-
100.7
3.3
327
-0.6
-0.1
+0.3
+1.0
+
XS0276455937 5.136% 22/03/17
Ba1/BB+/BBB-
102.4
3.2
322
-0.5
-0.1
+0.4
+1.0
+
XS0290581569 5.44% 02/11/17
Ba1/BB+/BBB-
104.3
3.3
312
-0.2
-0.1
+0.7
+0.9
+
XS0327237136 6.605% 13/02/18
Ba1/BB+/BBB-
106.1
3.7
365
-0.6
-0.4
+0.3
+0.7
+
XS0954912514 3.7% 25/07/18
Ba1/BB+/BBB-
100.7
3.5
343
-0.8
+0.2
+0.1
+1.3
+
XS1307381928 4.625% 15/10/18
Ba1/BB+/BBB-
102.6
3.7
364
-0.6
+0.5
+0.3
+1.6
-
XS0906946008 3.389% 20/03/20
Ba1/BB+/BBB-
96.9
4.3
404
-0.5
+0.7
+0.4
+1.8
+
XS1038646078 3.6% 26/02/21
Ba1/BB+/BBB-
96.8
4.3
403
-0.6
+0.9
+0.3
+1.9
+
XS0906949523 4.364% 21/03/25
Ba1/BB+/BBB-
96.8
4.8
403
-1.0
-0.2
-0.1
+0.9
+
Ba1/BB+/BBB-
98.1
3.8
383
-0.4
+0.6
+0.5
+1.7
+
--/BB/BBB-
106.2
1.3
131
-0.1
+0.0
+0.8
+1.0
+
-3.4
-3.3
-2.5
-2.2
+
XS1224710399 3.375% 29/12/49 (SUB)
Gazprom (no rec)
GAZPRU
Gazprom Neft (Hold)
SIBNEF
XS0922296883 2.933% 26/04/18
MOL (Hold)
MOLHB
XS0503453275 5.875% 20/04/17
Origin Energy (no rec)
ORGAU 5Y CDS
XS1109795176 4% 16/09/74 (SUB)
Petrobras (no rec)
--/BB+/-Ba2/B+/BB
253
Ba2/BB/--
86.0
8.6
PETBRA 5Y CDS
832
920
XS0982711631 2.75% 15/01/18
Ba3*-/BB/BBB-
80.0
14.5
1,448
-7.1
-8.3
-6.2
-7.2
+
XS0716979249 4.875% 07/03/18
Ba3*-/BB/BBB-
82.9
14.4
1,436
-6.8
-8.6
-6.0
-7.5
+
XS0835886598 3.25% 01/04/19
Ba3*-/BB/BBB-
73.5
13.9
1,372
-8.9
-11.5
-8.0
-10.5
+
XS0982711987 3.75% 14/01/21
Ba3*-/BB/BBB-
69.0
12.4
1,203
-9.4
-11.0
-8.5
-9.9
+
XS0716979595 5.875% 07/03/22
Ba3*-/BB/BBB-
74.0
12.1
1,164
-7.7
-9.9
-6.8
-8.9
+
XS0835890350 4.25% 02/10/23
Ba3*-/BB/BBB-
73.0
10.1
867
-3.8
-4.7
-2.9
-3.6
+
XS0982711714 4.75% 14/01/25
Ba3*-/BB/BBB-
71.9
10.2
877
-1.2
-2.9
-0.3
-1.8
-
UniCredit Research
page 20
11 December 2015
Credit Research
Sec
ENG
Name Instrument
Repsol (Buy)
Spd
TR 1w
TR 1m
ER 1w
ER 1m LQ
228
Ba1/--/BB+
88.2
6.6
631
-3.4
-4.1
-2.6
-3.0
+
XS1207058733 4.5% 25/03/75 (SUB)
Ba1/BB/BB+
80.7
7.5
668
-4.0
-6.0
-3.1
-4.9
+
RWE 5Y CDS
121
XS1219498141 2.75% 21/04/75 (SUB)
Ba1/BB+/BBB-*-
87.0
6.0
567
-1.6
-0.2
-0.7
+0.9
+
XS1219499032 3.5% 21/04/75 (SUB)
Ba1/BB+/BBB-*-
80.0
6.4
560
-2.2
-2.5
-1.3
-1.4
+
Caa2/B-/--
103.3
+5.7
+5.5
+6.6
+6.5
+
Stork Technical Services (no rec)
STTESE
XS0808757388 11% 15/08/17
Veolia Environnement (Hold)
VIEFP 5Y CDS
FR0011391820 4.45% PERP (SUB)
Viridian (no rec)
64
Baa3/BB+/BB+
103.8
2.8
276
-0.1
+0.5
+0.8
+1.6
-
B2/--/B+
104.6
6.2
602
+0.1
+2.8
+1.0
+3.9
+
B2/B/BB-
89.0
9.7
950
-2.6
-8.3
-1.7
-7.2
-
--/CCC+/--
92.6
11.5
1,161
-2.3
-1.6
-1.4
-0.5
+
B2/--/B
83.1
11.8
1,136
-0.2
-4.7
+0.7
-3.7
-
B3/--/--
82.2
17.5
1,716
-0.9
-7.8
+0.0
-6.8
-
VRDLN
XS1179900102 7.5% 01/03/20
Alain Afflelou (Hold)
AAFFP
XS1028956909 5.625% 15/04/19
ALBA Group (Buy)
ALBALN
DE000A1KQ177 8% 15/05/18
Aldesa (no rec)
ALDESA
XS1028959754 7.25% 01/04/21
Algeco Scotsman (no rec)
ALGSCO
XS0836306471 9% 15/10/18
ArcelorMittal (Hold)
MTNA 5Y CDS
814
XS0559641146 5.875% 17/11/17
Ba2/BB/BB+
100.0
5.9
594
-4.3
-4.3
-3.4
-3.2
+
XS0765621569 5.75% 29/03/18
Ba2/BB/BB+
98.9
6.5
631
-4.6
-4.9
-3.7
-3.8
+
XS1214673565 FRN 09/04/18
Ba2/BB/BB+
90.9
6.2
636
-3.9
-4.3
-3.0
-3.2
+
XS1048518358 3% 25/03/19
Ba2/BB/BB+
90.5
6.4
626
-4.7
-5.7
-3.8
-4.6
+
XS1084568762 2.875% 06/07/20
Ba2/BB/BB+
85.1
6.9
658
-5.1
-6.6
-4.3
-5.6
+
XS1214673722 3% 09/04/21
Ba2/BB/BB+
80.8
7.6
722
-7.4
-10.7
-6.6
-9.7
+
XS1167308128 3.125% 14/01/22
Ba2/BB/BB+
79.9
7.5
696
-7.0
-10.3
-6.1
-9.3
+
Ardagh Glass (Sell)
ARGID 5Y CDS
360
XS1076715108 8.375% 15/06/19 (PIK)
Caa2/CCC+/--
104.0
8.5
850
-2.0
-0.3
-1.1
+0.8
-
XS0547019777 9.25% 15/10/20
Caa1/CCC+/--
105.1
4.5
297
+0.1
+0.4
+1.0
+1.5
+
XS1082043388 4.25% 15/01/22
Ba3/B+/--
101.9
3.7
360
-0.4
+0.4
+0.4
+1.5
+
FR0011125442 4.625% 05/10/17
--/BB-/--
105.0
1.9
183
-0.3
-0.2
+0.6
+0.9
+
FR0010817452 4.375% 06/11/19
--/BB-/--
106.3
2.7
255
-0.1
+0.6
+0.8
+1.7
+
FR0011560986 3.25% 04/09/20
--/BB-/--
100.6
3.2
291
-0.6
+0.1
+0.3
+1.1
+
FR0010941690 3.5% 22/03/21
--/BB-/--
101.2
3.3
297
-0.3
+0.4
+0.6
+1.4
-
FR0011791391 3.125% 20/03/23
--/BB-/--
96.1
3.8
321
-0.4
+0.1
+0.5
+1.1
+
FR0010804500 4.875% 23/09/24
--/BB-/--
104.1
4.3
359
-0.4
+0.2
+0.5
+1.3
+
Ba1/BB+/--
100.1
4.8
449
-1.2
-1.5
-0.3
-0.4
+
B1/B+/B+
97.8
7.7
746
-4.5
-6.7
-3.6
-5.7
+
B2/B/--
108.6
2.8
261
-0.2
+1.0
+0.7
+2.0
-
--/BBB-/BB+
102.1
1.9
170
+0.0
+0.3
+0.9
+1.3
-
B1/B+/--
104.5
4.4
403
-0.3
-0.2
+0.6
+0.8
+
Ba3/BB-/--
104.3
3.8
309
-0.1
+0.0
+0.8
+1.1
-
XS1330978211 3.5% 15/12/20
Ba1/BB+/BB+
102.8
2.9
265
+
XS1330978567 4.375% 15/12/23
Ba1/BB+/BB+
103.3
3.9
326
+
Areva (Hold)
CEIFP
Arkema (Buy)
AKEFP
FR0012278539 4.75% PERP (SUB)
Astaldi (no rec)
ASTIM
XS1000393899 7.125% 01/12/20
Atalian (no rec)
ATALIA
XS0873629223 7.25% 15/01/20
Autostrada B. V. V. P. (no rec)
ABVVPS
XS1205716720 2.375% 20/03/20
Avis Budget Group (no rec)
CAR
XS0898656037 6% 01/03/21
Axalta Coating Systems (no rec)
AXTA
XS0874859605 5.75% 01/02/21
Ball (no rec)
PX Yield
XS1207054666 3.875% PERP (SUB)
RWE (Hold)
IDU
Rating
REPSM 5Y CDS
BLL
UniCredit Research
page 21
11 December 2015
Credit Research
Sec
IDU
Name Instrument
Befesa Zinc (no rec)
XS0625719777 8.875% 15/05/18
Belden (no rec)
PX Yield
Spd
TR 1w
TR 1m
ER 1w
ER 1m LQ
B1/B/--
100.8
8.4
835
-0.1
-1.3
+0.8
-0.3
-
Ba3/B+/--
102.3
5.1
473
+0.2
+0.4
+1.1
+1.4
-
Caa1/CCC+/--
99.2
10.2
1,130
-0.9
-3.1
+0.0
-2.1
-
--/BB+/--
100.5
2.3
214
-0.9
-1.9
+0.0
-0.9
+
B2/B/B
86.5
9.4
907
-5.8
-7.4
-5.0
-6.4
+
--/BB+/--
111.9
2.0
187
+0.1
+0.4
+1.0
+1.4
-
BDC
XS0903269370 5.5% 15/04/23 (SUB)
Bilbao Luxembourg (no rec)
BBAOLX
XS0983942656 10.5% 01/12/18 (PIK)
Bilfinger (Sell)
GBFGR
DE000A1R0TU2 2.375% 07/12/19
BMBG (no rec)
BMBGBN
XS1056054551 FRN 15/10/20
Bombardier (Sell)
Ba3/BB-/--
BBDBCN
XS0552915943 6.125% 15/05/21
Buzzi Unicem (Hold)
BZUIM
XS0835273235 6.25% 28/09/18
CABB (Hold)
CABBCO
XS1074935062 FRN 15/06/21
B2/B/--
XS1074935229 5.25% 15/06/21
B2/B/--
100.9
5.1
492
-0.3
+1.6
+0.6
+2.7
-
XS1074935492 6.875% 15/06/22
Caa1/CCC+/--
92.2
8.6
805
-1.1
-0.1
-0.2
+0.9
-
Ba2/BB+/--
103.9
2.3
209
-0.2
-0.4
+0.7
+0.7
+
Celanese (no rec)
CE
XS1110862148 3.25% 15/10/19
Cemex (no rec)
CEMEX 5Y CDS
457
XS0752095686 9.875% 30/04/19
--/B+/BB-
XS1028960174 5.25% 01/04/21
--/B+/BB-
101.2
5.1
482
+0.5
+0.7
+1.4
+1.8
-
XS1028946348 4.75% 11/01/22
--/B+/BB-
97.3
5.3
489
-0.7
+0.3
+0.2
+1.4
+
XS1198002690 4.375% 05/03/23
--/B+/BB-
94.9
5.4
472
+0.7
+1.6
+1.6
+2.6
-
B2/B+/BB-
103.9
3.9
377
-0.1
+0.1
+0.8
+1.1
-
B1/BB-/--
78.6
10.4
981
-1.8
+1.5
-0.9
+2.5
-
-0.1
+0.1
+0.8
+1.2
+
82
+0.0
+0.0
+0.9
+1.1
+
Cerba (no rec)
CERBA
XS0877607076 7% 01/02/20
Chemours (no rec)
CC
XS1226296603 6.125% 15/05/23
Ciments Francais (no rec)
CMFP 5Y CDS
FR0010454090 4.75% 04/04/17
Clariant (Hold)
237
Ba2*+/BB/--
104.5
1.3
CLNVX 5Y CDS
XS0735784851 5.625% 24/01/17
132
76
Ba1/BBB-/--
105.4
XS1005207961 8.75% 15/12/18
B3/B-/--
98.5
9.5
931
-2.9
-4.7
-2.0
-3.6
+
XS1244815111 7.75% 15/01/21
B3/B-/--
88.7
10.8
1,044
-1.1
-4.1
-0.2
-3.1
-
B2/B/--
88.1
10.5
1,004
-0.6
-4.6
+0.2
-3.6
+
CMA CGM (no rec)
0.8
CMACG
CMC di Ravenna (Buy)
CMCRAV
XS1088811432 7.5% 01/08/21
Constellium (no rec)
CSTM
XS1064882316 4.625% 15/05/21
B1/B/--
81.8
9.1
863
-3.9
-4.6
-3.1
-3.6
+
XS1151723282 7% 15/01/23
B1/B/--
86.4
9.8
922
-2.4
-3.2
-1.5
-2.2
-
ConvaTec (no rec)
CONVAT 5Y CDS
XS0568044555 10.875% 15/12/18
165
B3/B/--
103.1
7.4
584
+0.0
+0.6
+0.9
+1.6
XS1084050316 4% 15/07/22
Ba2/BB/--
104.1
3.3
287
-0.3
-0.5
+0.5
+0.6
-
XS1227287221 3.375% 15/05/25
Ba2/BB/--
94.5
4.1
329
-0.8
-1.3
+0.0
-0.3
+
B2/B/--
98.4
4.5
462
+0.2
+0.6
+1.1
+1.6
-
B3/CCC+/--
97.9
10.0
973
+0.3
+0.2
+1.2
+1.3
-
XS0982711045 6.75% 15/12/19
B1/BB/--
107.6
2.7
248
+0.1
+0.7
+1.0
+1.8
-
XS0982712951 FRN 15/12/19
B1/BB/--
Crown (no rec)
CCK
Dry Mix Solutions (no rec)
DRYMIX
XS1076527875 FRN 15/06/21
Eco-Bat Technologies (no rec)
ECOBAT
XS0754797438 7.75% 15/02/17
Empark (no rec)
Rating
BEZINC
EMPARK
UniCredit Research
page 22
11 December 2015
Credit Research
Sec
IDU
Name Instrument
Esterline Technologies (no rec)
XS1212668062 3.625% 15/04/23
Faenza (no rec)
Rating
PX Yield
Spd
TR 1w
TR 1m
ER 1w
ER 1m LQ
ESL
Ba2/BB+/--
98.1
4.0
338
+0.2
+2.0
+1.1
+3.1
-
Caa1/CCC+/--
108.2
5.2
496
-0.4
-0.3
+0.5
+0.7
-
FAENNZ
XS0955817738 8.25% 15/08/21
Finmeccanica (no rec)
FNCIM 5Y CDS
166
XS0861828407 4.375% 05/12/17
Ba1/BB+/BB+
106.4
1.1
114
-0.5
-0.3
+0.4
+0.7
+
XS0182242247 5.75% 12/12/18
Ba1/BB+/BB+
112.7
1.4
140
-0.4
+0.0
+0.5
+1.1
+
XS0999654873 4.5% 19/01/21
Ba1/BB+/BB+
110.9
2.2
196
-0.9
+0.2
+0.0
+1.2
+
XS0458887030 5.25% 21/01/22
Ba1/BB+/BB+
115.2
2.6
216
-0.6
+0.6
+0.3
+1.7
+
XS0215093534 4.875% 24/03/25
Ba1/BB+/BB+
113.0
3.3
247
-0.9
+0.5
+0.0
+1.5
+
FMC (Hold)
FMEGR 5Y CDS
75
XS0675221419 6.5% 15/09/18
Ba2/BB+/BB
115.1
0.9
96
+0.0
+0.6
+0.9
+1.7
+
XS0723509104 5.25% 31/07/19
Ba2/BB+/BB
114.1
1.3
120
+0.0
+0.4
+0.9
+1.4
+
XS0576395478 5.25% 15/02/21
Ba2/BB+/--
116.8
1.9
158
+0.2
+0.6
+1.1
+1.7
+
Fresenius (Hold)
FREGR 5Y CDS
74
XS1013954646 2.375% 01/02/19
Baa3/BB+/BB+
105.3
0.7
63
+0.0
+0.5
+0.9
+1.6
+
XS0759200321 4.25% 15/04/19
Baa3/BB+/BB+
111.9
0.7
61
+0.1
+1.2
+1.0
+2.3
+
XS0873432511 2.875% 15/07/20
Baa3/BB+/BB+
107.3
1.3
104
-0.2
+0.9
+0.7
+2.0
+
XS1013955379 3% 01/02/21
Baa3/BB+/BB+
108.0
1.4
111
+0.0
+1.3
+0.9
+2.3
+
XS1026109204 4% 01/02/24
Baa3/BB+/BB+
113.9
2.3
149
-0.1
+1.3
+0.7
+2.3
+
Caa2/B/--
75.4
11.2
1,069
-2.9
-6.6
-2.0
-5.5
-
B2/B/--
103.5
2.8
83
+0.1
+0.6
+1.0
+1.6
-
Ba3/BB-/--
116.8
4.0
371
+0.0
+0.1
+0.9
+1.2
-
B3/CCC+/--
104.5
4.1
314
-0.1
+0.4
+0.7
+1.5
-
Gates Global (no rec)
GATGLO
XS1078819726 5.75% 15/07/22
GCS (no rec)
GCLSYS
XS0992167436 6.5% 15/11/18
Greif (no rec)
GEF
XS0647108264 7.375% 15/07/21
Guala Closures (Hold)
GCLIM
XS0619675753 9.375% 15/04/18
XS0852482941 FRN 15/11/19
Haniel (Hold)
B1/B/--
HANIEL 5Y CDS
123
XS0482703286 5.875% 01/02/17
Ba1/BB+/--
105.7
0.8
90
+0.0
+0.0
+0.8
+1.1
+
XS0743603358 6.25% 08/02/18
Ba1/BB+/--
111.3
1.0
100
+0.0
+0.1
+0.9
+1.2
+
XS0974356262 7.75% 01/10/18
Caa1/B-/--
103.4
5.9
568
-0.3
-0.3
+0.6
+0.8
+
XS1144214993 7.5% 15/10/19
Caa1/B-/--
104.3
6.1
585
-0.1
+0.2
+0.8
+1.2
+
Caa3/CCC-/--
91.1
14.2
1,396
+0.2
+14.8
+1.1
+15.8
+
Hapag-Lloyd (no rec)
Heckler & Koch (no rec)
HPLGR
HECKKO
XS0626438112 9.5% 15/05/18
HeidelbergCement (Hold)
HEIGR 5Y CDS
XS0458230322 8% 31/01/17
139
Ba1/--/BB+
108.1
0.9
90
-0.1
+0.0
+0.8
+1.0
+
DE000A0TKUU3 5.625% 04/01/18
Ba1/--/BB+
109.5
1.0
102
-0.1
+0.2
+0.8
+1.2
+
XS0686703736 9.5% 15/12/18
Ba1/--/BB+
124.0
1.4
135
-0.2
+0.2
+0.7
+1.3
+
XS1044496203 2.25% 12/03/19
Ba1/--/BB+
103.3
1.3
119
-0.1
+0.0
+0.8
+1.0
+
XS0458685913 8.5% 31/10/19
Ba1/--/BB+
125.6
1.7
157
-0.3
+0.3
+0.6
+1.3
+
XS0478803355 7.5% 03/04/20
Ba1/--/BB+
123.7
1.8
162
-0.4
+0.0
+0.5
+1.0
+
XS0985874543 3.25% 21/10/20
Ba1/--/BB+
107.0
1.8
152
-0.3
+0.0
+0.6
+1.1
+
XS1002933072 3.25% 21/10/21
Ba1/--/BB+
107.1
2.0
161
-0.3
+0.5
+0.6
+1.5
+
Caa1/CCC+/--
101.7
7.6
739
+0.0
-1.0
+0.9
+0.1
+
B2/B/--
106.4
4.9
471
-0.1
+1.4
+0.8
+2.4
+
XS1265903937 5.125% 01/08/22
B1/B+/--
104.2
4.2
392
-0.1
+0.5
+0.8
+1.6
+
XS1265973047 7.25% 01/08/23
B3/B-/--
105.0
6.1
582
-0.2
+1.2
+0.6
+2.2
+
Heidelberger Druck (no rec)
HDDGR
DE000A14J7A9 8% 15/05/22
HomeVi (no rec)
DMVIFR
XS1093814116 6.875% 15/08/21
Horizon Holdings (no rec)
VERALL
UniCredit Research
page 23
11 December 2015
Credit Research
Sec
IDU
Name Instrument
Huntsman (no rec)
Rating
PX Yield
HUN 5Y CDS
Spd
TR 1w
TR 1m
ER 1w
ER 1m LQ
451
XS1056202762 5.125% 15/04/21
B1/B/--
97.6
5.7
538
-1.3
+0.5
-0.4
+1.5
-
XS1207638732 4.25% 01/04/25
B1/B/--
87.9
6.1
520
-0.9
+0.4
+0.0
+1.5
-
B2/B/--
106.7
5.7
558
+0.0
+1.1
+0.9
+2.2
-
B2/B+/--
98.9
4.3
378
+0.0
+1.1
+0.8
+2.2
+
Hurtigruten (no rec)
HRGNO
XS1180324037 7.5% 01/02/22
IMS Health (no rec)
RX
XS1207120475 4.125% 01/04/23
Ineos (Buy)
INEGRP 5Y CDS
104
XS0928189777 6.5% 15/08/18
B3/B-/--
102.1
5.1
492
+0.0
+0.3
+0.9
+1.4
XS0982710740 5.75% 15/02/19
B3/B-/--
101.4
5.1
507
-0.1
+0.1
+0.8
+1.2
+
Ba3/BB-/--
97.1
4.5
392
-0.7
+0.4
+0.2
+1.4
+
--/B/B*-
28.4
41.5
4,016
-7.0
-43.1
-6.1
-42.0
+
Ba3/B+/--
103.6
2.8
217
-0.2
-0.1
+0.7
+1.0
+
B3/B-/--
106.7
3.0
280
-0.1
+0.8
+0.8
+1.8
+
XS1117296209 4% 01/05/23
Innovia Films (no rec)
INNOGB
XS1032974609 FRN 31/03/20
Isolux (no rec)
B2/B/--
ISOLUX
XS1046702293 6.625% 15/04/21
ista (Hold)
ISTAGR
XS0929666070 5% 30/04/20
XS0929660974 6.875% 30/04/21 (SUB)
Italcementi (Buy)
ITCIT
XS0893201433 6.125% 21/02/18
Ba3*+/BB/--
109.9
1.6
155
-0.1
-0.1
+0.8
+0.9
-
XS0496716282 6.625% 19/03/20
Ba3*+/BB/--
117.6
2.3
212
-0.3
-1.0
+0.6
+0.0
+
Caa1*+/B-/--
101.1
3.4
266
+0.0
+0.2
+0.9
+1.2
+
XS1040428721 5.75% 01/03/21
B2/B+/--
103.0
4.8
471
+0.3
+4.6
+1.2
+5.6
-
XS1040429455 FRN 01/03/21
B2/B+/-Ba2/BB+/--
104.2
1.2
240
-0.1
+0.1
+0.8
+1.1
+
Caa1/CCC+/--
103.7
6.0
586
-0.2
-0.2
+0.7
+0.8
+
Caa1/CCC+/--
103.7
6.0
586
-0.2
-0.2
+0.7
+0.8
+
B1/B/--
106.8
6.1
457
-0.3
+0.6
+0.6
+1.7
+
Kerling (Hold)
KERLIN
XS0480857415 10.625% 01/02/17
Kerneos (no rec)
KERNOS
Kion (Hold)
KIONGR
XS0889217716 6.75% 15/02/20
Klöckner Pentaplast (no rec)
KPERST
XS1222584325 7.125% 01/11/20
KP Germany Erste (no rec)
KPERST
XS1222584325 7.125% 01/11/20
KraussMaffei (no rec)
KRAUSS
XS0864385264 8.75% 15/12/20
Labco (no rec)
LABFP
XS1117292984 6.25% 01/07/22
B2/B+/B+
105.1
5.0
482
-0.9
+0.2
+0.0
+1.3
XS1117292802 FRN 01/07/22
B2/B+/B+
100.7
4.8
489
-0.1
-0.6
+0.8
+0.5
-
Caa1/B-/CCC+
102.9
7.7
731
-0.4
+0.2
+0.5
+1.3
-
XS1268471494 8.25% 01/07/23
Lecta (Hold)
LECTA
XS0780141999 FRN 15/05/18
B2/B/--
XS0780068036 8.875% 15/05/19
B2/B/--
106.3
4.6
428
-0.2
-0.3
+0.6
+0.8
-
--/BB-/--
104.2
3.7
356
+0.1
+1.0
+1.0
+2.0
+
--/B/--
103.1
6.3
603
-0.3
-0.1
+0.6
+0.9
-
B2/B/--
105.7
6.4
614
+0.0
+0.7
+0.9
+1.8
-
B2/--/B
93.9
7.2
683
-0.4
-2.1
+0.5
-1.0
+
B2/B*-/--
83.4
13.5
1,324
-4.6
-7.3
-3.7
-6.3
+
B2/B/--
107.0
3.3
284
+0.0
+0.2
+0.9
+1.3
+
Ba2/BB/--
108.0
1.5
144
-0.1
+0.9
+0.7
+1.9
+
Loxam (no rec)
LOXAM
XS1089828450 4.875% 23/07/21
XS1089828880 7% 23/07/22
LSF9 Balta Issuer (no rec)
BALTAL
XS1265917481 7.75% 15/09/22
Maccaferri (no rec)
OFFMAC
XS1074596344 5.75% 01/06/21
Manutencoop (Hold)
MANTEN
XS0808635352 8.5% 01/08/20
Medi-Partenaires (no rec)
MEDIFP
XS0924046682 7% 15/05/20
Metsä Board (no rec)
METSA
FI4000085550 4% 13/03/19
UniCredit Research
page 24
11 December 2015
Credit Research
Sec
IDU
Name Instrument
New World Resources (no rec)
XS1107303148 8% 07/04/20 (PIK)
PX Yield
Spd
TR 1w
TR 1m
ER 1w
ER 1m LQ
Caa2/CCC/--
20.5
44.2
5,703
-29.8
-47.3
-28.9
-46.2
-
FR0010465427 5.75% 02/05/17
--/BB-/--
105.7
1.9
166
-0.1
+0.4
+0.8
+1.4
+
FR0011376201 4.25% 19/03/18
--/BB-/--
105.1
2.0
198
-0.1
+0.6
+0.8
+1.7
-
Nexans (no rec)
NEXFP
Norske Skog (no rec)
NSINO 5Y CDS
XS0307552355 7% 26/06/17
5,324
Ca/C*-/--
50.3
67.0
6,811
-5.1
-12.6
-4.2
-11.6
-
Caa1/CC*-/--
77.7
20.2
2,009
-1.0
-8.3
-0.1
-7.3
-
Caa3/C*-/--
31.2
38.9
4,132
-15.0
-17.0
-14.1
-15.9
-
B2/B/--
100.7
3.5
362
-0.1
+0.3
+0.8
+1.4
-
XS1028951421 FRN 30/06/20
B2/BB-/--
85.3
7.7
785
-0.3
+0.7
+0.6
+1.8
-
XS1028950886 4.5% 30/06/21
B2/BB-/--
87.0
7.5
708
-0.6
+3.2
+0.3
+4.2
-
B3/B-*+/--
83.9
14.3
1,408
-2.8
-3.6
-1.9
-2.5
+
Caa1/CCC/CCC+*+
108.9
4.3
412
+0.0
+0.5
+0.9
+1.6
-
XS0760705631 7.625% 15/03/20
B1/--/BB-
103.6
5.7
303
-0.4
-1.0
+0.5
+0.0
+
XS1043961439 4.75% 15/03/22
B1/--/BB-
88.3
7.1
671
-2.5
-4.8
-1.6
-3.8
+
XS1206510569 5.5% 15/03/23
B1/--/BB-
89.8
7.4
682
-1.7
-3.4
-0.9
-2.3
-
B3/B/--
75.1
16.4
1,608
-0.8
-10.3
+0.1
-9.2
-
XS1181663292 11.75% 15/12/19
XS1193909154 8% 24/02/21
Novacap (no rec)
NOVAFR
XS1065165455 FRN 01/05/19
Novafives (no rec)
NVFVES
Nyrstar (no rec)
NYRBB
XS1107268135 8.5% 15/09/19
Oberthur Technologies (no rec)
OCSFP
XS0979448494 9.25% 30/04/20
Obrascon (no rec)
OHLSM
Ovako (no rec)
OVAKOA
XS1028954367 6.5% 01/06/19
Owens-Illinois (no rec)
OI 5Y CDS
103
XS0542593792 6.75% 15/09/20
Ba3/BB/--
117.3
2.9
265
-0.2
+0.2
+0.7
+1.3
+
XS0908230781 4.875% 31/03/21 (SUB)
Ba3/BB/--
109.6
3.0
264
+0.0
+1.4
+0.8
+2.4
+
XS1207101418 5.25% 01/04/22
B1/B+/--
100.3
5.2
490
-0.3
-0.8
+0.6
+0.2
-
XS1207105161 7.375% 01/04/23
B2/B-/--
98.8
7.7
709
-0.1
-1.0
+0.8
+0.1
-
Paprec (no rec)
PAPREC
Paroc (no rec)
PAROCG
XS1028955505 6.25% 15/05/20
B2/B/--
97.0
7.2
689
-0.1
+0.1
+0.8
+1.1
-
XS1028955174 FRN 15/05/20
B2/B/--
95.2
6.5
658
+0.1
-0.6
+1.0
+0.4
-
B2/CCC+/--
101.8
5.6
474
-0.3
-0.4
+0.6
+0.6
-
B3*+/CCC+/--
105.1
5.9
566
+0.3
+1.4
+1.2
+2.5
+
XS0935786789 3.125% 27/05/20
--/BB+/BB
104.9
2.0
180
+0.3
XS1091770161 3.625% 30/07/21
--/BB+/BB
106.1
2.5
213
-0.3
+1.3
+0.6
+2.3
+
Ba3/BB/--
105.1
3.3
270
-0.3
+0.1
+0.6
+1.2
-
XS1063837311 4.75% 01/05/17
--/CCC-/--
92.5
11.3
1,076
+0.2
-1.1
+1.1
+0.0
-
XS1063837741 5.5% 01/05/19
--/CCC-/--
85.9
10.3
1,052
-1.7
-3.7
-0.8
-2.7
-
DE000A161GC3 5.125% 01/05/22
B1/B+/--
105.6
3.7
360
-0.2
+0.4
+0.6
+1.4
+
DE000A161GE9 FRN 01/05/22
B1/B+/--
100.5
4.1
417
-0.2
-0.3
+0.6
+0.7
-
Caa1/B+/--
86.9
8.5
799
-2.2
+1.3
-1.3
+2.3
-
B2/B+/--
75.3
15.9
1,549
+0.3
+4.0
+1.2
+5.0
-
-0.4
-6.6
+0.5
-5.5
-
Perstorp (no rec)
PERHOL
XS0855179536 9% 15/05/17
Pfleiderer (no rec)
PFLEID
DE000A12T176 7.875% 01/08/19
Phoenix (Hold)
PHARGR
Portucel (no rec)
+1.2
-
PTIPL
PTPTIHOT0014 5.375% 15/05/20
PPC (no rec)
PPCGA
Progroup (no rec)
PROGRP
PSPC Escrow (no rec)
PAH
XS1175224747 6% 01/02/23
Rain Commodities (no rec)
RCOLIN
XS0867945197 8.5% 15/01/21
Rexam (Hold)
Rating
NWRLN
REXLN 5Y CDS
XS0307868744 6.75% 29/06/67 (SUB)
51
Ba2*-/BB/--
101.4
5.9
582
UniCredit Research
page 25
11 December 2015
Credit Research
Sec
IDU
Name Instrument
Rexel (no rec)
PX Yield
Spd
TR 1w
TR 1m
ER 1w
ER 1m LQ
XS0908821639 5.125% 15/06/20
Ba3/BB/BB
105.5
2.3
188
-0.2
+0.2
+0.7
+1.3
-
XS1238996018 3.25% 15/06/22
Ba3/BB/BB
99.6
3.3
301
-0.3
+1.8
+0.6
+2.8
+
Ba1/--/--
107.2
1.2
118
+0.0
+0.0
+0.9
+1.1
+
--/BB+/BB
110.1
2.2
216
-0.2
+0.3
+0.7
+1.4
-
Ba2/BB/--
97.3
3.9
344
-1.5
+1.2
-0.6
+2.3
+
B2/B+/--
94.8
11.8
1,171
-2.0
-6.6
-1.1
-5.5
+
B1/BB/--
104.5
3.9
326
-0.5
+0.8
+0.4
+1.9
-
B2/B+/--
103.6
5.6
540
-0.7
+1.8
+0.2
+2.8
-
--/B/B-
102.7
4.5
444
+0.0
+0.5
+0.9
+1.6
+
B1/BB-/--
100.9
4.7
441
-0.3
+1.1
+0.6
+2.2
+
Caa1/B-/--
106.0
6.2
598
-0.4
+0.2
+0.5
+1.3
+
Rheinmetall (Hold)
RHMGR 5Y CDS
XS0542369219 5.25% 22/09/17
Salini Impregilo (no rec)
154
IPGIM
XS0956262892 6.125% 01/08/18
Sappi (Buy)
SAPSJ
XS1117298676 3.375% 01/04/22
Schmolz & Bickenbach (Hold)
STLNSW
DE000A1G4PS9 9.875% 15/05/19
Sealed Air Corporation (no rec)
SEE
XS1247796185 4.5% 15/09/23
Senvion (no rec)
SENVIO
XS1223808749 6.625% 15/11/20
SGD Group (no rec)
GOBAIN
XS1028957469 5.625% 15/05/19
SGL (no rec)
SGLGR
XS1002933403 4.875% 15/01/21
SIG Combibloc (no rec)
SIGCBL
XS1176586862 7.75% 15/02/23
Smurfit Kappa (Hold)
SKGID 5Y CDS
155
XS0828002807 5.125% 15/09/18
Ba1/BB+/BB+
109.3
1.5
137
-0.1
+0.0
+0.8
+1.1
-
XS0880132989 4.125% 30/01/20
Ba1/BB+/BB+
109.5
1.8
160
-0.1
+0.0
+0.8
+1.0
+
XS0832432446 FRN 15/10/20
Ba1/BB+/BB+
107.7
1.8
192
-0.3
+0.0
+0.6
+1.1
-
XS1074396927 3.25% 01/06/21
Ba1/BB+/BB+
106.0
2.1
178
-0.6
+0.1
+0.3
+1.2
+
XS1117298759 2.75% 01/02/25
Ba1/BB+/BB+
98.0
3.0
222
-0.9
-1.1
+0.0
+0.0
-
--/BB+/--
96.9
3.4
277
-0.5
+1.7
+0.4
+2.8
+
--/BB-/--
98.9
4.3
420
-0.8
-0.4
+0.1
+0.7
-
SPCM (no rec)
SNFF
XS1221105759 2.875% 15/06/23
SSAB (no rec)
SSABAS
XS1055515412 3.875% 10/04/19
Stena (no rec)
STENA 5Y CDS
540
XS0285176458 6.125% 01/02/17
B2/BB/--
103.6
3.2
296
-0.1
+0.0
+0.8
+1.1
+
XS0495219874 7.875% 15/03/20
B2/BB/--
112.1
4.9
458
+0.0
+0.1
+0.9
+1.2
+
Stora Enso (Hold)
STERV 5Y CDS
124
XS0830688411 5% 19/03/18
Ba2/BB/--
108.5
1.3
120
+0.0
+0.1
+0.9
+1.1
+
XS0754290459 5.5% 07/03/19
Ba2/BB/--
112.5
1.6
149
+0.0
+0.5
+0.9
+1.5
+
Ba2/BB/--
103.0
3.7
310
+2.5
+4.4
+3.4
+5.4
-
Synthos (no rec)
SNSPW
XS1115183359 4% 30/09/21
Techem (Hold)
TCHEN 5Y CDS
168
XS0783934911 6.125% 01/10/19
Ba3/BB-/BB
105.6
XS0783934838 7.875% 01/10/20
B3/B/B
108.9
2.0
+0.1
+0.6
+1.0
+1.6
-
+0.0
+0.7
+0.9
+1.8
+
DE000A1MA9H4 4.375% 28/02/17
Ba1/BB/BB+
104.1
1.1
DE000A1R08U3 4% 27/08/18
Ba1/BB/BB+
106.4
1.6
106
+0.0
+0.1
+0.9
+1.2
+
158
+0.0
+0.2
+0.9
+1.3
DE000A1R0410 3.125% 25/10/19
Ba1/BB/BB+
104.2
+
2.0
184
-0.1
+0.0
+0.8
+1.0
DE000A14J579 1.75% 25/11/20
Ba1/BB/BB+
+
98.4
2.1
185
-0.3
+0.0
+0.6
+1.1
DE000A14J587 2.5% 25/02/25
+
Ba1/BB/BB+
95.8
3.1
223
-0.5
+0.4
+0.4
+1.5
+
XS0862274445 8.75% 19/01/17
--/BB/--
106.1
3.6
319
+0.0
+0.7
+0.9
+1.8
-
XS1086071146 4.25% 10/07/19
--/BB/--
98.5
4.8
463
-0.6
+0.6
+0.3
+1.7
-
107.5
4.7
51
+0.2
+1.2
+1.0
+2.3
-
ThyssenKrupp (Hold)
Titan Cement (no rec)
TMF Group (Hold)
Rating
RXLFP
TKAGR 5Y CDS
168
257
TITKGA
TMFG
XS0860995355 FRN 01/12/18
XS0860984235 9.875% 01/12/19
B1/B/-Caa1/CCC+/--
UniCredit Research
page 26
11 December 2015
Credit Research
Sec
IDU
Name Instrument
Trinseo (no rec)
XS1220246521 6.375% 01/05/22
Unilabs (no rec)
XS0943769041 12% 15/01/19 (PIK)
Valeant (no rec)
XS1205619288 4.5% 15/05/23
TR 1m
ER 1w
ER 1m LQ
B3/--/--
101.0
6.1
599
-0.9
-0.1
+0.0
+1.0
-
B3/B/--
104.5
+0.4
+0.3
+1.3
+1.4
-
Caa2/CCC+/--
105.5
12.9
1,280
+0.5
+0.9
+1.3
+2.0
-
B1/B-/--
83.7
7.5
685
-1.4
+2.4
-0.5
+3.4
-
FR0011149947 4.25% 14/02/17
--/BB+/--
99.6
5.0
462
-0.4
-0.6
+0.5
+0.4
+
FR0011302793 3.25% 02/08/19
--/BB+/--
84.1
8.8
844
-1.9
-3.4
-1.0
-2.3
+
FR0012188456 2.25% 30/09/24
--/BB+/--
64.5
8.0
728
-4.1
-4.7
-3.2
-3.7
+
B1/--/--
104.9
4.9
465
VERISR
XS1310477895 6% 01/11/22
Voith (Hold)
VOITGR 5Y CDS
XS0306488627 5.375% 21/06/17
VWR (no rec)
-
129
Ba1/--/--
105.5
1.8
177
+0.0
+0.0
+0.9
+1.0
+
B3/B+/--
98.2
5.0
455
+0.2
+1.3
+1.1
+2.4
-
Caa2/--/CCC
45.0
39.0
3,942
-2.0
-18.2
-1.1
-17.2
-
B2/B/--
105.9
8.0
776
-0.2
+2.3
+0.7
+3.4
-
VWRINT
XS1207387801 4.625% 15/04/22
Waste Italia (no rec)
WASTEI
XS1139056037 10.5% 15/11/19
WFS Global (no rec)
WFSGLB
XS1252776759 9.5% 15/07/22
Wienerberger (Hold)
WIEAV 5Y CDS
DE000A0G4X39 6.5% PERP (SUB)
377
B1/--/--
101.9
4.8
485
-0.5
+0.2
+0.4
+1.3
+
AT0000A100E2 4% 17/04/20
Ba2/--/--
107.4
2.3
205
-0.1
+0.6
+0.8
+1.6
+
DE000A1ZN206 6.5% PERP (SUB)
B1/--/--
102.1
4.9
463
+0.1
+0.2
+1.0
+1.3
-
Caa1/CCC+/--
99.6
8.9
816
-0.2
+1.6
+0.7
+2.6
-
Ba2/BB/--
102.4
3.4
287
-0.4
+1.4
+0.5
+2.4
-
B2/B-/--
95.4
6.8
646
-0.9
-0.3
-0.1
+0.8
-
B3/CC/--
96.2
10.2
977
-0.6
+1.2
+0.2
+2.3
-
XS0864611610 8% 15/12/19 (SUB)
B1/BB-/--
104.2
5.6
442
+0.1
+0.3
+1.0
+1.4
-
XS1003905152 6.5% 15/01/22
B1/BB-/--
106.5
4.7
460
-0.4
+0.7
+0.5
+1.7
+
Wittur (no rec)
WITTUR
XS1188024548 8.5% 15/02/23
Worldpay Group (no rec)
WPGLN
XS1319701451 3.75% 15/11/22
Xella (Hold)
XELLA
XS1071440991 FRN 01/06/19
XPO Logistics (no rec)
B1/B+/--
XPO
XS1117295060 5.75% 15/06/21
Yioula (no rec)
YIOULA
XS1069662812 8.5% 15/05/19
Altice (Buy)
ALTICE
XS1061642317 7.25% 15/05/22
B3/B/--
95.4
8.2
779
-2.5
-2.3
-1.6
-1.2
+
XS1181246775 5.25% 15/02/23
B1/BB-/--
101.1
5.1
475
-1.2
-0.6
-0.3
+0.5
+
XS0946155693 9% 15/06/23
B3/B-/--
113.3
5.1
502
-0.5
+0.1
+0.4
+1.1
-
XS1117300241 6.25% 15/02/25
B3/B/--
86.6
8.4
766
-1.8
-2.6
-0.9
-1.5
-
--/BB-/--
106.6
2.2
162
+0.2
+0.2
+1.1
+1.3
-
--/BB+/BBB-
95.9
3.9
338
-0.3
-2.4
+0.6
-1.4
+
B3/B/B+
107.5
2.4
243
-0.3
+0.3
+0.6
+1.4
-
B1/B+/--
105.6
5.7
564
-1.5
-0.6
-0.6
+0.5
-
B2/BB-/--
106.3
3.5
289
-0.3
+0.4
+0.6
+1.4
-
Bite Finance (no rec)
BITEF
XS0883689753 FRN 15/02/18
Cegedim (no rec)
B3/B/B-
CGMFP
XS0906984272 6.75% 01/04/20
Cellnex Telecom (no rec)
CLNXSM
XS1265778933 3.125% 27/07/22
EIRCMF
XS0927671080 9.25% 15/05/20
INTERO
XS1298004612 7.375% 15/10/20
InterXion (no rec)
TR 1w
VKFP
Verisure (no rec)
Interoute (no rec)
Spd
VRXCN
Vallourec (no rec)
Eircom (no rec)
PX Yield
UNILAB
XS0943769470 8.5% 15/07/18
TMT
Rating
TRINSE
INXN
XS0946728564 6% 15/07/20
UniCredit Research
page 27
11 December 2015
Credit Research
Sec
TMT
Name Instrument
KPN (Hold)
Rating
PX Yield
KPN 5Y CDS
XS0903872355 6.125% PERP (SUB)
Spd
TR 1w
TR 1m
ER 1w
ER 1m LQ
76
Ba2/BB/BB
106.8
3.6
351
-0.1
+0.8
+0.8
+1.8
+
Caa1/--/--
91.9
7.5
696
-0.1
-2.1
+0.8
-1.1
-
XS1219467930 FRN 01/05/22
B2/B/--
94.1
4.9
499
-0.2
-0.1
+0.7
+1.0
-
XS1219465728 3.875% 01/05/22
B2/B/--
93.2
5.2
472
-0.6
-0.5
+0.2
+0.6
-
XS1219475792 4.875% 01/05/23
Caa1/CCC+/--
86.5
7.3
673
-0.9
-0.5
+0.0
+0.6
-
Lawson Software (no rec)
LWSN
XS1207004729 5.75% 15/05/22
Matterhorn Mobile (Sell)
Nokia (Hold)
MATTER
NOKIA 5Y CDS
XS0411735482 6.75% 04/02/19
118
Ba2/BB+/BB
116.8
1.3
126
+0.1
+0.5
+1.0
+1.6
+
XS1028956222 5.375% 15/05/22
B1/B+/--
103.5
4.6
433
-0.9
+0.5
+0.0
+1.6
+
XS1028956149 5.625% 15/05/24
B1/B+/--
102.7
5.2
472
-1.1
+1.0
-0.2
+2.0
+
XS0215828913 4.375% 24/03/17
B1/BB+/BB
70.7
38.4
3,683
-10.6
-23.6
-9.7
-22.6
+
XS0441479804 5.242% 06/11/17
B1/BB+/BB
73.5
31.9
2,438
-3.3
-14.9
-2.4
-13.8
-
XS0569301327 5.125% 15/12/17
Ba3/BB+/BB
59.9
36.6
3,677
-10.6
-30.1
-9.8
-29.0
+
Numericable-SFR (Buy)
Oi (Hold)
NUMFP
OIBRBZ
XS0843939918 5.875% 17/04/18
B1/BB+/BB
54.0
39.3
3,908
-13.4
-36.4
-12.5
-35.3
+
XS0462994343 5% 04/11/19
B1/BB+/BB
61.3
20.6
2,020
-13.7
-30.3
-12.8
-29.3
+
XS0927581842 4.625% 08/05/20
B1/BB+/BB
50.9
24.0
2,352
-8.6
-32.6
-7.7
-31.6
-
XS1245244402 5.625% 22/06/21
Ba2/BB+/BB
46.7
23.8
2,367
-12.2
-36.2
-11.4
-35.2
-
XS0221854200 4.5% 16/06/25
B1/BB+/BB
46.0
16.3
1,511
-19.8
-38.3
-18.9
-37.3
+
XS0885718782 7.875% 07/02/18
Caa2/B+/--
107.6
4.3
421
-0.1
-0.1
+0.8
+1.0
XS1327539976 4.375% 02/12/19
Caa2/B+/--
100.6
4.2
409
XS1086785182 3.5% 09/07/20
Caa2/B+/--
95.9
4.6
433
-1.0
-1.2
-0.1
-0.2
+
B3/--/B
71.1
24.5
2,546
-4.9
-10.9
-4.0
-9.8
-
OTE Hellenic Telecom (Hold)
PagesJaunes (no rec)
HTOGA 5Y CDS
+
PAJFP
XS0626691447 8.875% 01/06/18
PLAY (no rec)
324
PFOURS
XS0982710153 5.25% 01/02/19
B1/B/--
102.8
3.9
277
-0.2
+0.0
+0.7
+1.0
+
XS0982709494 6.5% 01/08/19
B2/CCC+/B-
104.9
3.9
382
-0.2
+0.5
+0.7
+1.5
+
Caa1/CCC+/--
102.8
5.1
390
-0.2
+0.3
+0.7
+1.4
-
+0.5
+0.4
+1.4
+1.4
-
-0.5
+0.8
+0.4
+1.9
-
XS1028947403 7.75% 28/02/20 (PIK)
Polkomtel (no rec)
POLKOM 5Y CDS
XS0731129747 11.75% 31/01/20
55
B2/BB-/--
107.8
B1/B+/--
107.1
3.8
357
XS0918548644 4.625% 15/04/20
Ba1/BB+/--
106.8
3.0
279
-0.1
+0.9
+0.8
+2.0
-
XS1266662763 4% 30/07/22
Ba1/BB+/--
102.3
3.6
317
-0.3
+0.4
+0.6
+1.5
+
RCS & RDS (Hold)
CBLCSY
XS0954673777 7.5% 01/11/20
SOFTBANK (no rec)
SOFTBK
XS1266662334 4.75% 30/07/25
Ba1/BB+/--
98.9
4.9
411
+0.0
-0.9
+0.9
+0.2
+
XS1266661013 5.25% 30/07/27
Ba1/BB+/--
98.6
5.4
445
-0.2
-0.6
+0.7
+0.5
+
TDC (Buy)
TDCDC 5Y CDS
XS1195581159 3.5% 26/02/15 (SUB)
TeamSystem (Hold)
122
Ba2/BB/BB+
94.7
4.7
440
-0.3
+1.0
+0.6
+2.0
+
B2/B-/--
104.9
3.4
338
-0.5
+0.2
+0.4
+1.3
+
TITANL
XS0808638372 7.375% 15/05/20
UniCredit Research
page 28
11 December 2015
Credit Research
Sec
TMT
Name Instrument
Telecom Italia (Hold)
Rating
PX Yield
TITIM 5Y CDS
Spd
TR 1w
TR 1m
ER 1w
ER 1m LQ
149
XS0693940511 7% 20/01/17
Ba1/BB+/BBB-
107.2
0.5
52
+0.0
-0.1
+0.9
+1.0
+
XS0831389985 4.5% 20/09/17
Ba1/BB+/BBB-
106.7
0.7
73
-0.1
-0.1
+0.8
+1.0
+
XS0630463965 4.75% 25/05/18
--/BB+/BBB-
109.5
0.9
86
-0.1
-0.2
+0.8
+0.8
+
XS0794393396 6.125% 14/12/18
--/BB+/BBB-
114.6
1.2
116
+0.0
+0.1
+0.9
+1.2
+
XS0184373925 5.375% 29/01/19
--/BB+/BBB-
113.0
1.2
112
+0.0
-0.1
+0.9
+0.9
+
XS0868458653 4% 21/01/20
--/BB+/BBB-
110.0
1.5
135
+0.1
-0.1
+1.0
+1.0
+
XS0974375130 4.875% 25/09/20
--/BB+/BBB-
114.2
1.8
155
-0.1
+0.4
+0.8
+1.5
+
XS1020952435 4.5% 25/01/21
--/BB+/BBB-
112.4
1.9
168
+0.0
-0.2
+0.8
+0.9
+
+
XS0486101024 5.25% 10/02/22
--/BB+/BBB-
115.8
2.5
208
+0.1
-0.4
+1.0
+0.6
XS1169832810 3.25% 16/01/23
Ba1/BB+/BBB-
103.1
2.8
224
-0.4
-0.8
+0.5
+0.3
-
XS0161100515 7.75% 24/01/33
Ba1/BB+/BBB-
132.5
4.9
368
-1.2
-0.4
-0.4
+0.7
+
XS0214965963 5.25% 17/03/55
Ba1/BB+/BBB-
102.3
5.1
369
-0.6
-0.3
+0.3
+0.7
+
Telefonica (Hold)
TELEFO 5Y CDS
105
XS0972570351 6.5% PERP (SUB)
Ba1/BB+/BBB-
106.6
4.0
395
-0.7
+1.0
+0.2
+2.1
-
XS1148359356 4.2% PERP (SUB)
Ba1/BB+/BBB-
99.8
4.3
413
-1.1
-1.0
-0.3
+0.0
+
XS1050460739 5% PERP (SUB)
Ba1/BB+/BBB-
102.2
4.5
428
-1.0
-0.2
-0.1
+0.9
+
XS0972588643 7.625% PERP (SUB)
Ba1/BB+/BBB-
112.4
5.1
477
-0.4
+1.6
+0.5
+2.6
-
XS1050461034 5.875% PERP (SUB)
Ba1/BB+/BBB-
102.6
5.5
482
-1.0
-0.2
-0.1
+0.9
+
Ba1/BB+/--
104.5
3.4
343
-0.2
+0.3
+0.7
+1.4
+
XS0592445075 6.625% 15/02/21
B1/B+/BB
104.1
2.9
219
-0.1
+0.1
+0.8
+1.1
+
XS0615238390 FRN 15/06/21
B1/B+/BB
100.4
3.3
342
+0.1
+0.6
+1.0
+1.6
-
XS0783935488 6.25% 15/08/22
B1/B+/BB
108.1
3.2
313
-0.7
-0.2
+0.2
+0.8
-
XS0783935306 6.75% 15/08/24
B1/B+/BB
110.5
3.9
380
-0.2
+0.5
+0.7
+1.6
-
XS1266726592 4.875% 15/07/27
B1/B+/--
97.0
5.2
425
-0.7
+0.3
+0.2
+1.3
-
Ba2/BBB/--
108.4
2.7
262
+0.0
+0.4
+0.8
+1.5
-
B2/B/--
107.2
4.5
419
-0.1
+0.6
+0.8
+1.6
-
XS0827991760 5.5% 15/09/22
Ba3/BB-/--
106.6
3.2
321
-0.5
+0.0
+0.4
+1.0
+
XS0862322947 5.75% 15/01/23
Ba3/BB-/--
106.8
3.7
371
-0.6
-0.1
+0.3
+0.9
+
XS0877974062 5.125% 21/01/23
Ba3/BB-/BB-
106.1
3.4
334
-0.3
+0.3
+0.6
+1.3
-
XS0918739318 5.625% 15/04/23
Ba3/BB-/--
107.1
3.7
365
-0.3
+0.3
+0.6
+1.3
-
Ba3/BB-/BB-
97.5
4.4
359
-2.7
-2.2
-1.8
-1.2
+
XS1197205591 3.5% 15/01/27
Ba3/BB-/--
91.7
4.5
350
-3.2
-3.3
-2.3
-2.2
+
XS1199438174 3.75% 15/01/27
B3/B/--
86.4
5.4
445
-2.0
-2.5
-1.1
-1.5
+
XS0982713330 6.25% 15/01/29
Ba3/BB-/--
110.7
4.5
419
-0.4
+0.3
+0.5
+1.4
+
XS0832993397 6.375% 15/09/22 (SUB)
B2/B/--
106.8
4.3
416
-0.1
-0.5
+0.8
+0.5
-
XS0909769407 6.75% 15/03/23
B2/B/--
108.9
4.2
408
-0.2
-0.7
+0.7
+0.3
-
Ba3/BB/--
94.3
4.7
371
-0.9
-0.8
+0.0
+0.3
-
Telekom Austria (Hold)
TKAAV 5Y CDS
XS0877720986 5.625% PERP (SUB)
Telenet (Hold)
66
TNETBB
TVN (no rec)
TVNPW
XS0954674668 7.375% 15/12/20
United Group (Hold)
ADRBID
XS0992294388 7.875% 15/11/20
Unitymedia (Hold)
UNITY
XS1150437579 4% 15/01/25
UPC (Hold)
UPCB 5Y CDS
XS1117297603 4% 15/01/27
Virgin Media (Buy)
269
VMED 5Y CDS
XS1169920193 4.5% 15/01/25
Vivacom (no rec)
249
B2/B/B
96.3
5.0
426
-1.0
+0.4
-0.1
+1.4
+
B1/B-*-/--
101.2
5.9
600
-0.1
+1.4
+0.8
+2.4
-
B1/B/--
101.8
5.3
559
-1.0
+0.4
-0.1
+1.5
-
BLTEBG
XS0994993037 6.625% 15/11/18
Warner Music (no rec)
WMG
XS0849907521 6.25% 15/01/21
UniCredit Research
page 29
11 December 2015
Credit Research
Sec
TMT
Name Instrument
Wind (Buy)
PX Yield
Spd
TR 1w
TR 1m
ER 1w
ER 1m LQ
361
XS0922256580 FRN 30/04/19
Ba3/BB/BB-
100.7
0.2
31
-0.1
+0.3
+0.8
+1.4
XS1082635712 FRN 15/07/20
Ba3/BB/BB-
99.9
4.0
407
+0.0
+0.3
+0.9
+1.3
-
--/BB/BB-
100.4
3.9
384
-1.3
+0.3
-0.4
+1.4
+
Ba3/BB/BB-
100.1
4.2
429
+0.0
+0.4
+0.9
+1.4
-
Caa1/B/B-
100.5
6.8
678
-1.4
+0.2
-0.5
+1.3
+
XS1028411152 7.125% 15/05/24
B2/B/--
108.9
5.3
516
-0.7
+0.3
+0.2
+1.3
-
XS1170079443 4.625% 15/01/25
B2/B/--
93.6
5.5
479
-1.8
+0.0
-0.9
+1.0
+
XS1175813655 3.75% 15/01/25
Ba3/BB-/--
93.8
4.6
383
-1.6
+0.1
-0.7
+1.2
+
--/BB+/--
101.4
3.1
285
+0.0
+0.2
+0.9
+1.3
-
--/B+/BB
101.7
4.4
436
-0.1
+0.8
+0.8
+1.8
+
+
XS1082636876 4% 15/07/20
XS1204622960 FRN 15/07/20
XS1055940206 7% 23/04/21
Ziggo (Hold)
FNL
Rating
WINDIM 5Y CDS
ZIGGO 5Y CDS
Akelius Fastigheter (no rec)
263
AKFAST
XS1295537077 3.375% 23/09/20
Alfa Group (no rec)
-
ABHFIN
XS1076087375 5.5% 10/06/17
Allied Irish Banks (Hold)
AIB 5Y CDS
143
XS1057481084 2.75% 16/04/19
Ba1/BB+/BB
105.5
1.1
104
+0.2
+0.4
+1.1
+1.4
XS1202664386 1.375% 16/03/20
Ba1/BB+/BB
101.1
1.1
95
+0.3
+0.5
+1.2
+1.6
B1/B+/BB-
101.0
3.9
365
-0.5
B1/BB-/--
102.2
4.7
477
+0.1
+1.0
+1.0
+2.1
-
Ba1/--/--
89.1
7.0
625
-0.9
+0.8
+0.0
+1.9
+
XS1325125158 4.125% 26/11/25 (SUB)
Arrow Global Finance (no rec)
+
+
ARRGL
XS1132462786 FRN 01/11/21
Atradius (no rec)
+0.4
ATRADI
XS1028942354 5.25% 23/09/44 (SUB)
Banca MPS (no rec)
MONTE 5Y CDS
XS0236480322 FRN 30/11/17 (SUB)
261
Caa3/--/CCC
86.4
7.4
749
-6.1
-8.8
-5.2
-7.7
-
B3/--/B-
101.5
3.2
311
-0.4
+0.3
+0.5
+1.4
+
XS0503326083 5% 21/04/20 (SUB)
Caa3/--/CCC
94.3
6.8
637
-4.0
-7.3
-3.1
-6.3
+
XS0540544912 5.6% 09/09/20 (SUB)
Caa3/--/CCC
95.2
7.0
660
-4.6
-7.8
-3.7
-6.7
+
--/B-/BB-
96.1
3.1
317
-2.5
-2.9
-1.6
-1.9
-
XS1017615920 3.5% 20/01/17
--/--/B+
96.5
7.1
691
-1.5
-2.2
-0.7
-1.2
-
XS1057050855 2.75% 11/04/17
--/--/B+
95.9
6.7
611
-1.6
-2.2
-0.7
-1.2
-
XS0985326502 5% 25/10/18
--/--/B+
94.7
6.9
710
-5.1
-6.6
-4.2
-5.5
+
XS1205644047 2.75% 20/03/20
--/--/B+
86.8
6.4
622
-2.8
-5.7
-1.9
-4.7
-
XS1300456420 9.5% 29/09/25 (SUB)
--/--/B
92.3
11.7
1,140
-7.4
-10.7
-6.5
-9.6
-
XS1051696398 3.625% 01/04/19
Banca P. Emilia Romagna (no rec)
BPEIM
XS0300345971 FRN 15/05/17 (SUB)
Banca Pop. di Vicenza (no rec)
VICEN
Banca Popolare di Milano (no rec) PMIIM 5Y CDS
180
XS0372300227 9% PERP (SUB)
Caa2/CCC/B+
109.0
5.3
516
-0.2
+0.4
+0.7
+1.5
-
XS1024830819 4.25% 30/01/19
Ba3/BB-/BB+
107.1
1.9
188
+0.1
+0.8
+1.0
+1.8
-
B3/--/BB
108.4
5.2
499
-3.8
-3.1
-2.9
-2.1
+
+0.4
+1.3
+1.3
+2.4
-
XS0597182665 7.125% 01/03/21 (SUB)
Banco de Sabadell (Hold)
SABSM 5Y CDS
ES0213860051 6.25% 26/04/20 (SUB)
Banco Popolare Scarl (Hold)
160
B1/B+/--
113.0
3.1
BPIM 5Y CDS
288
199
XS0869136316 4.3% 06/01/18
Ba3/--/BB
104.5
1.9
211
-0.2
+0.0
+0.7
+1.0
-
XS1070681397 2.375% 22/01/18
Ba3/--/BB
101.1
1.8
187
-0.2
-0.2
+0.7
+0.8
+
XS1293577208 2.625% 21/09/18
Ba3/--/BB
101.7
2.0
201
-0.2
+0.1
+0.7
+1.1
-
XS1044894944 3.5% 14/03/19
Ba3/--/BB
103.6
2.3
231
-0.3
+0.0
+0.5
+1.1
+
XS1266866927 2.75% 27/07/20
Ba3/--/BB
101.2
2.5
228
-0.6
+0.0
+0.3
+1.1
+
XS0555834984 6% 05/11/20 (SUB)
B3/--/BB-
103.9
5.1
486
-3.9
-4.2
-3.0
-3.1
+
XS0632503412 6.375% 31/05/21 (SUB)
B3/--/BB-
104.4
5.4
514
-5.3
-5.1
-4.4
-4.1
+
Banco Popular Espanol (no rec)
POPSM 5Y CDS
181
XS1017790178 2.5% 01/02/17
Ba2/--/BB-
101.9
0.9
91
+0.0
+0.1
+0.9
+1.1
+
XS1169791529 2% 03/02/20
Ba2/--/BB-
99.7
2.1
193
+0.2
-0.3
+1.1
+0.7
+
ES0213790019 8% 29/07/21 (SUB)
--/--/B+
ES0213790027 8.25% 19/10/21 (SUB)
--/--/B+
UniCredit Research
page 30
11 December 2015
Credit Research
Sec
FNL
Name Instrument
Banco Santander (Hold)
PX Yield
Spd
TR 1w
TR 1m
ER 1w
ER 1m LQ
121
XS0418135041 2% PERP (SUB)
Ba2/BB+/BB
XS0418134663 2% PERP (SUB)
Ba2/BB+/BB
Bank of Ireland (Hold)
BKIR 5Y CDS
149
XS0487711573 10% 12/02/20 (SUB)
Ba3/BB/--
125.8
3.3
317
-0.2
+1.5
+0.6
+2.6
XS0867469305 10% 19/12/22 (SUB)
--/BB/--
134.9
4.2
370
-0.1
+1.5
+0.8
+2.5
-
Ba3/BB/--
103.9
3.1
299
-0.5
+0.9
+0.4
+2.0
+
ES0214977144 4.375% 14/02/17
B1/BB/BB+
104.5
0.7
63
+0.0
+0.3
+0.9
+1.4
+
ES0313307193 1.5% 10/11/17
--/BB/BB+
ES0313307003 3.5% 17/01/19
--/BB/BB+
105.8
1.6
154
+0.0
+0.1
+0.9
+1.2
+
--/B/BB
100.3
4.0
384
-0.3
+0.3
+0.6
+1.4
-
+0.0
+0.7
+0.9
+1.8
-
+0.0
+0.4
+0.9
+1.5
+
-0.9
+0.0
+0.0
+1.0
-
XS1075963485 4.25% 11/06/24 (SUB)
Bankia (Hold)
-
BKIASM
ES0213307004 4% 22/05/24 (SUB)
Bankinter (no rec)
BKTSM 5Y CDS
ES0213679196 6.375% 11/09/19 (SUB)
Barclays (Hold)
116
Ba1/BB/--
114.4
2.4
BACR 5Y CDS
XS0214398199 4.75% PERP (SUB)
BAWAG P.S.K. (Hold)
225
60
Ba2/BB/BB+
100.5
4.6
BAWAG 5Y CDS
XS0987169637 8.125% 30/10/23 (SUB)
BayernLB (Hold)
446
171
Ba1/--/--
123.9
4.5
BYLAN 5Y CDS
390
77
XS0326869665 5.75% 23/10/17 (SUB)
Ba1/--/BB
108.5
1.2
119
+0.0
+0.0
+0.9
+1.1
+
XS0285330717 FRN 07/02/19 (SUB)
Ba1/--/BB
96.4
2.1
217
-0.5
+1.2
+0.4
+2.3
+
+
BCP (no rec)
BCPPL 5Y CDS
PTBITIOM0057 3.375% 27/02/17
440
B1/B+/BB-
100.4
3.2
310
+0.1
+1.2
+1.0
+2.2
FR0010535971 6.117% PERP (SUB)
Ba2/BB+/BBB-
107.6
2.1
203
+0.1
+0.5
+1.0
+1.6
-
FR0010777524 12.5% PERP (SUB)
Ba2/--/BBB-
134.4
2.9
275
+0.1
+0.7
+1.0
+1.8
+
Ba2/BB+/BBB-
104.8
3.3
324
-0.1
+0.1
+0.8
+1.2
-
Ba2/BB-/--
103.6
2.3
168
-0.5
+0.0
+0.4
+1.0
+
B1/B/--
106.7
3.6
60
+0.1
+0.4
+1.0
+1.5
-
BPCE (no rec)
BPCEGP
CaixaBank (Hold)
CABKSM
XS0989061345 5% 14/11/23 (SUB)
Cerved (Hold)
CERVIM
XS0876813600 6.375% 15/01/20
XS0876835595 8% 15/01/21 (SUB)
Commerzbank (Hold)
CMZB 5Y CDS
88
DE000CB83HU8 10% 30/01/17 (SUB)
Ba2/BB+/--
108.7
2.2
222
-0.2
-0.1
+0.7
+0.9
+
DE000CB83HX2 9.5% 14/03/17 (SUB)
Ba2/BB+/--
109.2
2.2
216
+0.0
+0.0
+0.9
+1.1
+
DE000CZ22EH9 5% 30/10/17 (SUB)
Ba2/BB+/BBB-
106.3
1.8
161
+0.4
+0.7
+1.3
+1.7
-
DE000CZ31PX3 FRN 30/03/18 (SUB)
Ba2/BB+/BBB-
102.4
2.0
209
+0.9
+0.9
+1.7
+1.9
-
DE000CB83CE3 6.375% 22/03/19 (SUB)
Ba2/BB+/BBB-
113.9
2.0
194
-0.3
+0.7
+0.6
+1.8
+
DE000CB83CF0 7.75% 16/03/21 (SUB)
Ba2/BB+/BBB-
123.5
2.9
261
-1.4
+1.7
-0.5
+2.7
+
+
Crédit Agricole (Hold)
ACAFP 5Y CDS
Ba2/BB+/BBB-
114.4
1.9
179
+0.1
+0.4
+1.0
+1.4
FR0010670422 10.653% PERP (SUB)
Ba2/BB+/BBB-
118.0
3.2
377
-0.8
-0.6
+0.1
+0.5
-
FR0010814434 7.875% PERP (SUB)
Ba2/BB+/BBB-
118.1
2.9
278
+0.2
+0.6
+1.1
+1.7
+
Ba1/BB+/BBB-
104.1
2.1
197
+0.1
+0.4
+1.0
+1.4
+
DANBNK 5Y CDS
XS0287195233 4.878% PERP (SUB)
Deutsche Bank (Hold)
94
--/BB-/BB+
106.8
5.1
495
+0.3
+1.8
+1.2
+2.8
+
Ba3/--/BB+*
102.8
4.0
410
+0.2
+0.4
+1.1
+1.4
+
DPB
XS0307741917 5.983% PERP (SUB)
Dexia Kommunalbank (Hold)
61
DB 5Y CDS
DE000A0TU305 8% PERP (SUB)
Deutsche Postbank (no rec)
DEXGRP 5Y CDS
XS0307581883 FRN 10/07/17 (SUB)
EFG Hellas (no rec)
69
FR0010603159 8.2% PERP (SUB)
Danske Bank (no rec)
135
Caa3/CCC-/B-
93.4
5.2
529
+0.8
+0.7
+1.7
+1.7
+
C/CCC+/C
90.2
8.9
870
-1.4
+0.4
-0.5
+1.5
+
B2/B+/--
99.7
5.9
607
-0.5
EUROB
XS1081588086 4.25% 26/06/18
Encore (no rec)
Rating
SANTAN 5Y CDS
ECPG
XS1117279619 FRN 15/11/21
+0.4
-
UniCredit Research
page 31
11 December 2015
Credit Research
Sec
FNL
Name Instrument
Erste Bank (Hold)
Rating
PX Yield
ERSTBK 5Y CDS
XS0260783005 FRN 19/07/17 (SUB)
Spd
TR 1w
TR 1m
ER 1w
ER 1m LQ
131
Ba2/BB+/BBB
98.5
2.0
209
-0.1
+0.8
+0.8
+1.9
+
--/--/BB
83.0
7.5
663
-0.8
+0.0
+0.1
+1.0
-
B2/B+/--
104.2
6.5
626
-0.5
+2.9
+0.4
+3.9
-
XS0987109658 3.984% 30/10/18
Ba2/BB+/BB+
98.4
4.6
460
-0.5
+0.4
+0.4
+1.5
+
XS1084024584 4% 01/07/19
Ba2/BB+/BB+
97.6
4.8
467
-0.1
+1.7
+0.8
+2.8
+
Ba1/BB+/--
95.3
4.7
425
-0.5
+0.1
+0.4
+1.1
-
FR0010533414 6.298% PERP (SUB)
--/--/BB
101.3
5.5
559
-0.9
-0.5
+0.0
+0.6
+
FR0011896513 6.375% PERP (SUB)
--/--/BB+
96.8
6.8
623
-1.6
-1.8
-0.7
-0.7
+
FR0010815464 7.875% 27/10/39
--/--/BB+
107.6
5.6
555
-1.0
-0.6
-0.1
+0.4
+
Ethias Vie (no rec)
ETHIAS
BE6279619330 5% 14/01/26 (SUB)
Garfunkelux (no rec)
GFKLDE
XS1263891910 7.5% 01/08/22
Gazprombank (Sell)
GPBRU
Grand City Properties (no rec)
GYCGR
XS1191320297 3.75% PERP (SUB)
Groupama (Hold)
CCAMA
HSH Nordbank (Sell)
HSHN 5Y CDS
DE000HSH2H23 FRN 14/02/17 (SUB)
188
B1/--/B-*+
91.1
8.6
872
+0.0
+0.4
+0.9
+1.5
+
--/B/BB
96.5
5.9
567
-0.8
-0.3
+0.1
+0.8
-
B3/B/--
101.3
7.9
788
-0.8
--/BB/BBB
102.1
1.4
121
+0.2
Ba1/--/--
100.4
1.6
170
XS0360809577 6.625% 08/05/18 (SUB)
Ba2/BB-/BB+
109.8
2.5
243
XS0365303675 FRN 28/05/18 (SUB)
Ba1/BB/BBB
100.8
1.5
164
XS0371711663 8.047% PERP (SUB)
Ba3/B+/BB
112.2
3.1
299
Ba1/BB/BBB
109.6
2.3
223
Ibercaja (no rec)
CAZAR
ES0244251007 5% 28/07/25 (SUB)
ICBPI (no rec)
ICBPI
XS1318392864 8.25% 30/05/21 (PIK)
Iccrea Banca (no rec)
XS1143070503 1.875% 25/11/19
Immigon Portfolioabbau (no rec)
+
+0.8
+1.1
+1.9
+
-0.1
-0.3
+0.8
+0.7
-
-0.3
+0.1
+0.6
+1.2
+
-0.5
-0.5
+0.4
+0.6
+
+0.1
+1.0
+1.0
+2.0
-
-0.6
-0.2
+0.3
+0.8
+
IMIGON
AT000B053442 FRN 17/07/17
Intesa Sanpaolo (Hold)
+0.1
ICCREA
Caa1/--/--
ISPIM 5Y CDS
IT0004692817 FRN 31/03/18 (SUB)
XS0452166324 5% 23/09/19 (SUB)
XS0456541506 8.375% PERP (SUB)
89
Ba3/B+/BB
118.3
3.3
315
+0.1
+1.0
+1.0
+2.0
-
XS0526326334 5.15% 16/07/20 (SUB)
Ba1/BB/BBB
111.6
2.4
226
-0.9
-0.2
+0.0
+0.9
+
XS0971213201 6.625% 13/09/23 (SUB)
Ba1/BB/BBB
121.2
3.5
289
-0.8
+0.0
+0.1
+1.1
-
XS1222597905 2.855% 23/04/25 (SUB)
Ba1/BB/BBB
97.8
3.1
232
-0.7
+1.2
+0.2
+2.2
-
XS1109765005 3.928% 15/09/26 (SUB)
Ba1/BB/BBB
102.9
3.6
267
-1.1
+0.1
-0.3
+1.2
+
--/--/BB+
97.5
6.4
604
-0.2
+2.5
+0.7
+3.5
+
--/B/B-
104.1
5.3
414
-0.2
+0.2
+0.7
+1.2
-
+0.1
+1.7
+1.0
+2.8
+
IPF (no rec)
IPFLN
XS1054714248 5.75% 07/04/21
Kaufman & Broad (no rec)
KAUF
XS1050202446 7% 30/09/19
Kazkommertsbank (no rec)
KKB 5Y CDS
XS0286431100 6.875% 13/02/17
786
Caa2/B-/B-
98.9
8.1
793
XS1094672273 FRN 15/08/20
B2/BB-/--
101.3
XS1094612378 7% 15/08/21
B2/BB-/--
-0.1
+0.4
+0.8
+1.5
+
105.6
5.4
527
-0.3
+0.1
+0.6
+1.2
XS1094674642 9.5% 15/08/22
Caa1/B-/--
+
105.6
8.1
785
-0.4
+0.2
+0.5
+1.2
-
Ba1/BBB-/BB
107.0
2.6
233
+0.2
+0.6
+1.1
+1.7
-
Ba1/BBB-/--
102.5
3.7
314
+0.1
+0.6
+0.9
+1.7
-
IT0004645542 5% 15/11/20 (SUB)
--/BB/--
107.7
3.3
305
-3.2
-4.0
-2.3
-2.9
+
IT0004917842 5.75% 18/04/23 (SUB)
--/BB/--
113.4
3.6
312
-2.6
-1.8
-1.7
-0.8
+
Lock (no rec)
LINDOR
Medical Properties Trust (no rec)
MPW
XS0975547141 5.75% 01/10/20
XS1278084147 4% 19/08/22
Mediobanca (no rec)
BACRED 5Y CDS
127
UniCredit Research
page 32
11 December 2015
Credit Research
Sec
FNL
Name Instrument
Natixis (no rec)
FR0010531012 6.307% PERP (SUB)
Nord/LB (Hold)
PX Yield
XS0520938647 6% 29/06/20 (SUB)
Spd
TR 1w
TR 1m
ER 1w
ER 1m LQ
+0.1
+0.4
+1.0
+1.5
-
68
Ba2/BB+/BBB-
107.6
2.2
NDB 5Y CDS
211
119
Ba1/--/--
113.8
2.7
256
-0.5
-1.0
+0.4
+0.1
+
Ba1/--/--
109.0
3.4
282
+0.4
-2.9
+1.3
-1.9
+
--/BB-/B+
101.8
1.9
176
+0.0
+0.3
+0.9
+1.3
+
PTBEQKOM0019 2.625% 08/05/17
B2*-/--/--
93.4
7.8
783
+0.1
+2.8
+1.0
+3.9
+
PTBENJOM0015 4.75% 15/01/18
B2*-/--/--
94.5
7.8
773
+0.4
+4.6
+1.3
+5.6
+
PTBENKOM0012 4% 21/01/19
B2*-/--/--
92.4
6.8
676
+0.7
+4.7
+1.6
+5.7
+
B2*-/--/--
70.8
5.7
421
+0.4
+3.4
+1.3
+4.5
-
XS0619437147 6.625% 18/05/21 (SUB)
Ba2/BB+/--
104.8
5.6
528
-1.3
-1.2
-0.4
-0.1
+
XS0843322750 5.875% 27/04/23 (SUB)
Ba2/BB+/--
100.6
5.6
560
-1.6
-3.3
-0.7
-2.3
+
XS0981632804 6% 16/10/23 (SUB)
Ba2/BB+/--
93.7
7.0
650
-2.9
-4.2
-2.0
-3.2
+
XS1001668950 5.163% 18/06/24 (SUB)
Ba2/BB+/--
87.8
9.4
929
-2.5
-2.2
-1.6
-1.1
+
XS1034950672 4.5% 21/02/25 (SUB)
Ba2/BB+/--
83.0
9.7
945
-2.7
-2.7
-1.8
-1.7
+
XS0271858606 4.35% 23/01/17 (SUB)
Ba2/BB+/BBB
103.8
1.0
99
+0.0
+0.2
+0.9
+1.3
+
XS0323734961 7.0916% PERP (SUB)
B1/B+/BB-
105.8
3.8
374
+0.2
+1.1
+1.1
+2.1
+
XS0356705219 6.934% 09/04/18 (SUB)
Ba2/BB+/BBB
112.5
1.5
148
-0.2
+0.4
+0.7
+1.4
+
XS1049037200 3.625% 25/03/24 (SUB)
Ba2/BB/BBB
103.1
2.7
258
+0.1
+0.5
+0.9
+1.6
+
Ba2/--/--
90.2
7.6
697
-2.1
-0.2
-1.2
+0.8
+
Ba2/--/BB-
104.8
3.7
313
+0.1
-0.2
+1.0
+0.9
-
DE000NLB2HC4 4.75% 02/10/23 (SUB)
Nova Ljubljanska Banka (no rec)
NOVALJ
XS1081728195 2.875% 03/07/17
Novo Banco (no rec)
NOVBNC
XS0869315241 3.5% 02/01/43
Raiffeisen Bank Int. (no rec)
RBS (Hold)
RBIAV
RBS 5Y CDS
RLB Niederoe.-Wien (no rec)
RPGBYT
XS0808638539 6.75% 01/05/20
Sberbank (Hold)
SBERRU 5Y CDS
Ba1/--/BBB
97.4
3.9
392
-0.8
-1.3
+0.1
-0.3
-
XS1082459568 3.3524% 15/11/19
Ba1/--/BBB
98.7
3.8
360
-0.6
+0.6
+0.3
+1.7
+
XS0336598064 6.999% PERP (SUB)
Ba2/BB+/--
109.8
2.1
204
+0.1
+0.5
+1.0
+1.5
+
XS0449487619 9.375% PERP (SUB)
Ba2/BB+/--
122.9
2.9
274
+0.2
+0.7
+1.1
+1.8
+
Ba2*+/BB+/BBB-
110.5
2.0
186
+0.1
+0.8
+1.0
+1.8
+
SOCGEN 5Y CDS
71
UBS 5Y CDS
XS0336744650 7.152% PERP (SUB)
UniCredit (no rec)
359
XS1043520144 3.08% 07/03/19
Société Générale (Hold)
UBS (Hold)
58
RFLBNI
XS0997355036 5.875% 27/11/23 (SUB)
RPG Byty (no rec)
47
UCGIM 5Y CDS
120
XS0322918565 5.75% 26/09/17 (SUB)
Ba1/BB/BBB
107.7
1.4
140
-0.1
+0.0
+0.8
+1.1
+
XS0367777884 6.7% 05/06/18 (SUB)
Ba3/BB-/BB+
110.8
2.2
219
-0.3
-0.4
+0.6
+0.7
+
XS0470937243 8.125% PERP (SUB)
Unipol (Hold)
Rating
KNFP 5Y CDS
B1/B+/--
114.8
4.1
393
+0.1
+1.3
+1.0
+2.4
+
XS0618847775 6.125% 19/04/21 (SUB)
Ba1/BB/BBB
114.5
3.1
286
-1.2
+0.7
-0.3
+1.7
+
XS0849517650 6.95% 31/10/22 (SUB)
Ba1/BB/BBB
116.7
4.1
366
-1.9
-1.6
-1.0
-0.5
+
XS0986063864 5.75% 28/10/25 (SUB)
Ba1/BB/BBB
108.2
3.9
365
-0.9
-1.0
+0.0
+0.1
+
XS0472940617 5% 11/01/17
Ba2/BB/--
104.1
1.3
127
-0.1
+0.1
+0.8
+1.2
+
XS1041042828 4.375% 05/03/21
Ba2/BB/--
106.8
3.0
269
+0.0
+0.2
+0.9
+1.3
+
XS0130717134 FRN 15/06/21 (SUB)
Ba1/BB/--
98.4
2.7
281
-0.9
-1.3
+0.0
-0.3
-
XS0173649798 FRN 28/07/23 (SUB)
Ba1/BB/--
97.3
2.8
289
-1.3
-0.5
-0.4
+0.5
+
XS1206977495 3% 18/03/25
Ba2/BB/--
94.7
3.7
289
+0.1
+0.7
+0.9
+1.8
+
UNIIM 5Y CDS
152
UniCredit Research
page 33
11 December 2015
Credit Research
Sec
FNL
Name Instrument
Veneto Banca (no rec)
Rating
PX Yield
Spd
TR 1w
TR 1m
ER 1w
ER 1m LQ
579
-2.0
-2.6
-1.1
-1.6
-
-3.8
-5.5
-2.9
-4.4
+
VENBAN
XS1016053537 4% 20/01/17
--/B+/--
IT0004241078 FRN 21/06/17 (SUB)
--/CCC/--
XS0337685324 6.411% PERP (SUB)
--/CCC-/--
XS1069508494 4% 20/05/19
XS1327514045 9.5% 01/12/25 (SUB)
98.2
6.1
--/B+/--
96.1
5.2
520
--/CCC/--
92.6
11.4
1,125
+
UniCredit Research
page 34
11 December 2015
Credit Research
Disclaimer
Our recommendations are based on information obtained from, or are based upon public information sources that we consider to be reliable but for the completeness and
accuracy of which we assume no liability. All estimates and opinions included in the report represent the independent judgment of the analysts as of the date of the issue. This
report may contain links to websites of third parties, the content of which is not controlled by UniCredit Bank. No liability is assumed for the content of these third-party websites.
We reserve the right to modify the views expressed herein at any time without notice. Moreover, we reserve the right not to update this information or to discontinue it altogether
without notice.
This analysis is for information purposes only and (i) does not constitute or form part of any offer for sale or subscription of or solicitation of any offer to buy or subscribe for any
financial, money market or investment instrument or any security, (ii) is neither intended as such an offer for sale or subscription of or solicitation of an offer to buy or subscribe
for any financial, money market or investment instrument or any security nor (iii) as an advertisement thereof. The investment possibilities discussed in this report may not be
suitable for certain investors depending on their specific investment objectives and time horizon or in the context of their overall financial situation. The investments discussed
may fluctuate in price or value. Investors may get back less than they invested. Changes in rates of exchange may have an adverse effect on the value of investments.
Furthermore, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. In particular, the risks associated with an investment in the financial, money market or investment
instrument or security under discussion are not explained in their entirety.
This information is given without any warranty on an "as is" basis and should not be regarded as a substitute for obtaining individual advice. Investors must make their own
determination of the appropriateness of an investment in any instruments referred to herein based on the merits and risks involved, their own investment strategy and their legal,
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howsoever arising from any use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith.
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Responsibility for the content of this publication lies with:
UniCredit Group and its subsidiaries are subject to regulation by the European Central Bank
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UniCredit Group. Regulatory authority: “BaFin“ – Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht, Lurgiallee 12, 60439 Frankfurt, Germany.
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Regulatory authority: Hong Kong Monetary Authority, 55th Floor, Two International Financial Centre, 8 Finance Street, Central, Hong Kong
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Offices No. 7.
POTENTIAL CONFLICTS OF INTERESTS
RBS 3; Wienerberger 3; BCP 3; Banco Popolare Scarl 3; Piaggio 3; ABN Amro Bank 3; Banque PSA 3; Continental 3; UBS 3; Wind 3; C.I.R. 3; Deutsche Postbank 3; IKB 3;
Renault 3;
Key 1a: UniCredit Bank AG and/or any related legal person owns at least 2% of the capital stock of the analyzed company.
Key 1b: The analyzed company owns at least 2% of the capital stock of UniCredit Bank AG and/or any related legal person.
Key 2: UniCredit Bank AG and/or any related legal person has been lead manager or co-lead manager over the previous 12 months of any publicly disclosed offer of financial
instruments of the analyzed company, or in any related derivatives.
Key 3: UniCredit Bank AG and/or any related legal person administers the securities issued by the analyzed company on the stock exchange or on the market by quoting bid and
ask prices (i.e. acts as a market maker or liquidity provider in the securities of the analyzed company or in any related derivatives).
Key 5: The analyzed company and UniCredit Bank AG and/or any related legal person have concluded an agreement on the preparation of analyses.
Key 6a: Employees or members of the Board of Directors of UniCredit Bank AG and/or any other employee that works for UniCredit Research (i.e. the joint research department
of the UniCredit Group) and/or members of the Group Board (pursuant to relevant domestic law) are members of the Board of Directors of the analyzed company. Members of
the Board of Directors of the analyzed company hold office in the Board of Directors of UniCredit Bank AG (pursuant to relevant domestic law). The application of this Key 6a is
limited to persons who, although not involved in the preparation of the analysis, had or could reasonably be expected to have access to the analysis prior to its dissemination to
customers or the public.
Key 6b: The analyst is on the Supervisory Board/Board of Directors of the company they cover.
RECOMMENDATIONS, RATINGS AND EVALUATION METHODOLOGY
Company
Date
Rec.
Company
BCPPL
11/10/2015
In transition
HTZ
BPCEGP
11/10/2015
In transition
HTZ
CIRSA
9/10/2015
Buy
IKB
CMZB
11/2/2015
Marketweight
INTNED
CMZB
9/14/2015
Restricted
INTNED
CONGR
11/12/2015
Restricted
INTNED
DAA
11/10/2015
In transition
ISSDC
DPB
11/10/2015
In transition
ISSDC
EUROCA
7/8/2015
Hold
KNFP
EUROCA
6/16/2015
Buy
MRKGR
EUROCA
4/24/2015
Hold
NSINO
F
3/5/2015
Marketweight
PEUGOT
F
2/3/2015
Restricted
PEUGOT
HEIGR
7/29/2015
Hold
PGIM
HELLA
3/30/2015
Marketweight
PIAGIM
Date
11/10/2015
7/21/2015
11/10/2015
8/5/2015
6/3/2015
2/5/2015
3/12/2015
3/5/2015
11/10/2015
2/5/2015
4/17/2015
2/24/2015
2/19/2015
6/9/2015
9/14/2015
Rec.
Sell
Hold
In transition
Marketweight
Restricted
Marketweight
Overweight
Marketweight
In transition
Marketweight
no rec.
Hold
Marketweight
no rec.
Sell
Company
PIAGIM
RENAUL
SAPSJ
SAPSJ
SNSSNS
STERV
TDCDC
TDCDC
UBS
UBS
VMED
WIEAV
WINDIM
Date
3/2/2015
4/23/2015
4/24/2015
3/10/2015
11/10/2015
10/12/2015
8/10/2015
2/20/2015
10/13/2015
7/31/2015
6/16/2015
2/18/2015
8/7/2015
Rec.
Hold
Overweight
Buy
Restricted
In transition
Hold
Overweight
Marketweight
Marketweight
Restricted
Buy
Hold
Buy
Overview of our ratings
You will find the history of rating regarding recommendation changes as well as an overview of the breakdown in absolute and relative terms of our investment ratings on our
website www.disclaimer.unicreditmib.eu/credit-research-rd/Recommendations_CR_e.pdf.
Note on the evaluation basis for interest-bearing securities:
Recommendations relative to an index:
For high grade names the recommendations are relative to the "iBoxx EUR Benchmark" index family, for sub investment grade names the recommendations are relative to the
"iBoxx EUR High Yield" index family.
UniCredit Research
page 35
11 December 2015
Credit Research
Marketweight: We recommend having the same portfolio exposure in the name as the respective iBoxx index. We expect that the average total return of the instruments of the
issuer is equal to the total return of the index.
Overweight: We recommend having a higher portfolio exposure in the name as the respective iBoxx index. We expect that the average total return of the instruments of the
issuer is greater than the total return of the index.
Underweight: We recommend having a lower portfolio exposure in the name as the respective iBoxx index. We expect that the average total return of the instruments of the
issuer is less than the total return of the index.
Outright recommendations:
Hold: We recommend holding the respective instrument for investors who already have exposure. We expect that the total return of the instruments of the issuer is equal to the yield.
Buy: We recommend buying the respective instrument for investors who already have exposure. We expect that the total return of the instruments of the issuer is greater than the yield.
Sell: We recommend selling the respective instrument for investors who already have exposure. We expect that the total return of the instruments of the issuer is less than the yield.
We employ three further categorizations for interest-bearing securities in our coverage:
Restricted: A recommendation and/or financial forecast is not disclosed owing to compliance or other regulatory considerations such as a blackout period or a conflict of interest.
Coverage in transition: Due to changes in the research team, the disclosure of a recommendation and/or financial information are temporarily suspended. The interest-bearing
security remains in the research universe and disclosures of relevant information will be resumed in due course.
Not rated: Suspension of coverage.
Trading recommendations for fixed-interest securities mostly focus on the credit spread (yield difference between the fixed-interest security and the relevant government bond or
swap rate) and on the rating views and methodologies of recognized agencies (S&P, Moody’s, Fitch). Depending on the type of investor, investment ratings may refer to a short
period or to a 6 to 9-month horizon. Please note that the provision of securities services may be subject to restrictions in certain jurisdictions. You are required to acquaint
yourself with local laws and restrictions on the usage and the availability of any services described herein. The information is not intended for distribution to or use by any person
or entity in any jurisdiction where such distribution would be contrary to the applicable law or provisions.
If not otherwise stated daily price data refers to pre-day closing levels and iBoxx bond index characteristics refer to the previous month-end index characteristics.
Coverage Policy
A list of the companies covered by UniCredit Bank is available upon request.
Frequency of reports and updates
It is intended that each of these companies be covered at least once a year, in the event of key operations and/or changes in the recommendation.
SIGNIFICANT FINANCIAL INTEREST
UniCredit Bank AG and/or other related legal persons with them regularly trade shares of the analyzed company. UniCredit Bank AG and/or other related legal persons may hold
significant open derivative positions on the stocks of the company which are not delta-neutral.
UniCredit Bank AG and/or other related legal persons have a significant financial interest relating to the analyzed company or may have such at any future point of time. Due to
the fact that UniCredit Bank AG and/or any related legal person are entitled, subject to applicable law, to perform such actions at any future point in time which may lead to the
existence of a significant financial interest, it should be assumed for the purposes of this information that UniCredit Bank AG and/or any related legal person will in fact perform
such actions which may lead to the existence of a significant financial interest relating to the analyzed company.
Analyses may refer to one or several companies and to the securities issued by them. In some cases, the analyzed companies have actively supplied information for this analysis.
INVESTMENT BANKING TRANSACTIONS
The analyzed company and UniCredit Bank AG and/or any related legal person concluded an agreement on services in connection with investment banking transactions in the
previous 12 months, in return for which the Bank and/or such related legal person received a consideration or promise of consideration or intends to do so. Due to the fact that
UniCredit Bank AG and/or any related legal person are entitled to conclude, subject to applicable law, an agreement on services in connection with investment banking
transactions with the analyzed company at any future point in time and may receive a consideration or promise of consideration, it should be assumed for the purposes of this
information that UniCredit Bank AG and/or any related legal person will in fact conclude such agreements and will in fact receive such consideration or promise of consideration.
ANALYST DECLARATION
The author’s remuneration has not been, and will not be, geared to the recommendations or views expressed in this study, neither directly nor indirectly.
ORGANIZATIONAL AND ADMINISTRATIVE ARRANGEMENTS TO AVOID AND PREVENT CONFLICTS OF INTEREST
To prevent or remedy conflicts of interest, UniCredit Bank has established the organizational arrangements required from a legal and supervisory aspect, adherence to which is
monitored by its compliance department. Conflicts of interest arising are managed by legal and physical and non-physical barriers (collectively referred to as “Chinese Walls”)
designed to restrict the flow of information between one area/department of UniCredit Bank and another. In particular, Investment Banking units, including corporate finance,
capital market activities, financial advisory and other capital raising activities, are segregated by physical and non-physical boundaries from Markets Units, as well as the
research department. Disclosure of publicly available conflicts of interest and other material interests is made in the research. Analysts are supervised and managed on a day-today basis by line managers who do not have responsibility for Investment Banking activities, including corporate finance activities, or other activities other than the sale of
securities to clients.
ADDITIONAL REQUIRED DISCLOSURES UNDER THE LAWS AND REGULATIONS OF JURISDICTIONS INDICATED
You will find a list of further additional required disclosures under the laws and regulations of the jurisdictions indicated on our website www.cib-unicredit.com/research-disclaimer.
Notice to Austrian investors: This analysis is only for distribution to professional clients (Professionelle Kunden) as defined in article 58 of the Securities Supervision Act.
Notice to investors in Bosnia and Herzegovina: This report is intended only for clients of UniCredit in Bosnia and Herzegovina who are institutional investors (Institucionalni
investitori) in accordance with Article 2 of the Law on Securities Market of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Article 2 of the Law on Securities Markets of the
Republic of Srpska, respectively, and may not be used by or distributed to any other person. This document does not constitute or form part of any offer for sale or subscription
for or solicitation of any offer to buy or subscribe for any securities and neither this document nor any part of it shall form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with or act as
an inducement to enter into, any contract or commitment whatsoever.
Notice to Brazilian investors: The individual analyst(s) responsible for issuing this report represent(s) that: (a) the recommendations herein reflect exclusively the personal
views of the analysts and have been prepared in an independent manner, including in relation to UniCredit Group; and (b) except for the potential conflicts of interest listed under
the heading “Potential Conflicts of Interest” above, the analysts are not in a position that may impact on the impartiality of this report or that may constitute a conflict of interest,
including but not limited to the following: (i) the analysts do not have a relationship of any nature with any person who works for any of the companies that are the object of this
report; (ii) the analysts and their respective spouses or partners do not hold, either directly or indirectly, on their behalf or for the account of third parties, securities issued by any
of the companies that are the object of this report; (iii) the analysts and their respective spouses or partners are not involved, directly or indirectly, in the acquisition, sale and/or
trading in the market of the securities issued by any of the companies that are the object of this report; (iv) the analysts and their respective spouses or partners do not have any
financial interest in the companies that are the object of this report; and (v) the compensation of the analysts is not, directly or indirectly, affected by UniCredit’s revenues arising
out of its businesses and financial transactions. UniCredit represents that: except for the potential conflicts of interest listed under the heading “Potential Conflicts of Interest”
above, UniCredit, its controlled companies, controlling companies or companies under common control (the “UniCredit Group”) are not in a condition that may impact on the
impartiality of this report or that may constitute a conflict of interest, including but not limited to the following: (i) the UniCredit Group does not hold material equity interests in the
companies that are the object of this report; (ii) the companies that are the object of this report do not hold material equity interests in the UniCredit Group; (iii) the UniCredit
Group does not have material financial or commercial interests in the companies or the securities that are the object of this report; (iv) the UniCredit Group is not involved in the
acquisition, sale and/or trading of the securities that are the object of this report; and (v) the UniCredit Group does not receive compensation for services rendered to the
companies that are the object of this report or to any related parties of such companies.
Notice to Cyprus investors: This document is directed only at clients of UniCredit Bank who are persons falling within the Second Appendix (Section 2, Professional Clients) of
the law for the Provision of Investment Services, the Exercise of Investment Activities, the Operation of Regulated Markets and other Related Matters, Law 144(I)/2007 and
persons to whom it may otherwise lawfully be communicated who possess the experience, knowledge and expertise to make their own investment decisions and properly assess
the risks that they incur (all such persons together being referred to as “relevant persons”). This document must not be acted on or relied on by persons who are not relevant
persons or relevant persons who have requested to be treated as retail clients. Any investment or investment activity to which this communication related is available only to
relevant persons and will be engaged in only with relevant persons. This document does not constitute an offer or solicitation to any person to whom it is unlawful to make such
an offer or solicitation.
UniCredit Research
page 36
11 December 2015
Credit Research
Notice to investors in Ivory Coast: The information contained in the present report have been obtained by Unicredit Bank AG from sources believed to be reliable, however, no
express or implied representation or warranty is made by Unicredit Bank AG or any other person as to the completeness or accuracy of such information. All opinions and
estimates contained in the present report constitute a judgement of Unicredit Bank AG as of the date of the present report and are subject to change without notice. They are
provided in good faith but without assuming legal responsibility. This report is not an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy or invest in securities. Past performance is not an
indicator of future performance and future returns cannot be guaranteed, and there is a risk of loss of the initial capital invested. No matter contained in this document may be
reproduced or copied by any means without the prior consent of Unicredit Bank AG.
Notice to New Zealand investors: This report is intended for distribution only to persons who are “wholesale clients” within the meaning of the Financial Advisers Act 2008
(“FAA”) and by receiving this report you represent and agree that (i) you are a “wholesale client” under the FAA (ii) you will not distribute this report to any other person, including
(in particular) any person who is not a “wholesale client” under the FAA. This report does not constitute or form part of, in relation to any of the securities or products covered by
this report, either (i) an offer of securities for subscription or sale under the Securities Act 1978 or (ii) an offer of financial products for issue or sale under the Financial Markets
Conduct Act 2013.
Notice to Omani investors: This communication has been prepared by UniCredit Bank AG. UniCredit Bank AG does not have a registered business presence in Oman and
does not undertake banking business or provide financial services in Oman and no advice in relation to, or subscription for, any securities, products or financial services may or
will be consummated within Oman. The contents of this communication are for the information purposes of sophisticated clients, who are aware of the risks associated with
investments in foreign securities and neither constitutes an offer of securities in Oman as contemplated by the Commercial Companies Law of Oman (Royal Decree 4/74) or the
Capital Market Law of Oman (Royal Decree 80/98), nor does it constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy non-Omani securities in Oman as contemplated by
Article 139 of the Executive Regulations to the Capital Market Law (issued vide CMA Decision 1/2009). This communication has not been approved by and UniCredit Bank AG is
not regulated by either the Central Bank of Oman or Oman’s Capital Market Authority.
Notice to Pakistani investors: Investment information, comments and recommendations stated herein are not within the scope of investment advisory activities as defined in
sub-section I, Section 2 of the Securities and Exchange Ordinance, 1969 of Pakistan. Investment advisory services are provided in accordance with a contract of engagement on
investment advisory services concluded with brokerage houses, portfolio management companies, non-deposit banks and the clients. The distribution of this report is intended
only for informational purposes for the use of professional investors and the information and opinions contained herein, or any part of it shall not form the basis of, or be relied on
in connection with or act as an inducement to enter into, any contract or commitment whatsoever.
Notice to Polish Investors: This document is intended solely for professional clients as defined in Art. 3.39b of the Trading in Financial Instruments Act of 29 July 2005 (as
amended). The publisher and distributor of the document certifies that it has acted with due care and diligence in preparing it, however, assumes no liability for its completeness
and accuracy. This document is not an advertisement. It should not be used in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment.
Notice to Serbian investors: This analysis is only for distribution to professional clients (profesionalni klijenti) as defined in article 172 of the Law on Capital Markets.
Notice to UK investors: This communication is directed only at clients of UniCredit Bank who (i) have professional experience in matters relating to investments or (ii) are
persons falling within Article 49(2)(a) to (d) (“high net worth companies, unincorporated associations, etc.”) of the United Kingdom Financial Services and Markets Act 2000
(Financial Promotion) Order 2005 or (iii) to whom it may otherwise lawfully be communicated (all such persons together being referred to as “relevant persons”). This
communication must not be acted on or relied on by persons who are not relevant persons. Any investment or investment activity to which this communication relates is available
only to relevant persons and will be engaged in only with relevant persons.
This document may not be distributed in Canada.
CR e 7
UniCredit Research
page 37
11 December 2015
Credit Research
UniCredit Research*
Erik F. Nielsen
Group Chief Economist
Global Head of CIB Research
+44 207 826-1765
[email protected]
Dr. Ingo Heimig
Head of Research Operations
+49 89 378-13952
[email protected]
Credit Research
Luis Maglanoc, CFA, Head
+49 89 378-12708
[email protected]
Credit Strategy & Structured
Credit Research
Dr. Philip Gisdakis, Head
Credit Strategy
+49 89 378-13228
[email protected]
Dr. Christian Weber, CFA, Deputy Head
Credit Strategy
+49 89 378-12250
[email protected]
Dr. Tim Brunne
Quantitative Credit Strategy
+49 89 378-13521
[email protected]
Holger Kapitza
Credit Strategy & Structured Credit
+49 89 378-28745
[email protected]
Dr. Stefan Kolek
EEMEA Corporate Credits & Strategy
+49 89 378-12495
[email protected]
Manuel Trojovsky
Credit Strategy & Structured Credit
+49 89 378-14145
[email protected]
Financials Credit Research
Corporate Credit Research
Franz Rudolf, CEFA, Head
Covered Bonds
+49 89 378-12449
[email protected]
Stephan Haber, CFA, Co-Head
Telecoms, Technology
+49 89 378-15192
[email protected]
Dr. Tilo Höpker
Banks
+49 89 378-12960
[email protected]
Dr. Sven Kreitmair, CFA, Co-Head
Automotive & Mobility
+49 89 378-13246
[email protected]
Luis Maglanoc, CFA
Regulatory & Accounting Service
+49 89 378-12708
[email protected]
Christian Aust, CFA
Industrials
+49 89 378-12806
[email protected]
Natalie Tehrani Monfared
Regulatory & Accounting Service
+49 89 378-12242
[email protected]
David Bertholdt
Capital Goods & Services
+49 89 378-13211
[email protected]
Emanuel Teuber
Covered Bonds
+49 89 378-12961
[email protected]
Mehmet Dere
Retail, Travel & Leisure, Oil & Gas
+49 89 378-11294
[email protected]
Robert Vielhaber
Sub-Sovereigns & Agencies, Green Bonds
+49 89 378-12004
[email protected]
Michael Gerstner
Utilities, Hybrids
+49 89 378-15449
[email protected]
Dr. Martina von Terzi
Banks, Financial Services, Insurance
+49 89 378-14245
[email protected]
Alexander Rozhetskin
Russia/CIS
(Banks, Oil & Gas, Basic Resources, Telecoms)
+44 207 826-7953
[email protected]
Jonathan Schroer, CFA
Media/Cable, Logistics, Business Services
+49 89 378-13212
[email protected]
Dr. Silke Stegemann, CEFA
Health Care & Pharma, Food & Beverage,
Personal & Household Goods
+49 89 378-18202
[email protected]
Publication Address
UniCredit Research
Corporate & Investment Banking
UniCredit Bank AG
Arabellastrasse 12
D-81925 Munich
[email protected]
Bloomberg
UCCR
Internet
www.research.unicredit.eu
*UniCredit Research is the joint research department of UniCredit Bank AG (UniCredit Bank), UniCredit Bank AG London Branch (UniCredit Bank London), UniCredit Bank AG Milan Branch (UniCredit Bank Milan),
UniCredit Bank New York (UniCredit Bank NY), UniCredit Bulbank, Zagrebačka banka d.d., UniCredit Bank Czech Republic and Slovakia, Bank Pekao, ZAO UniCredit Bank Russia (UniCredit Russia),
UniCredit Bank Romania.
CR 20
UniCredit Research
page 38

Weekly Highlights - UniCredit Research

Transcription

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