Tornadoes - Hazards Caucus Alliance

Hazards Caucus Alliance
Tornadoes: Understanding How
They Develop and Providing
Early Warning; Part III NWS
Steven Zubrick
Science and Operations Officer
NOAA National Weather Service
Weather Forecast Office,
Office Sterling,
Sterling VA
Washington, DC
July 21
21, 2010
NWS Operations
NWS Operations
Observe
Distribute
Products & Services
Process
Central
Guidance
Feedback
Local
Offices
Respond &
Feedback
Tornadoes Nationally
Frequency of Tornado Occurrence by County, 1950-2007
Source: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center
Fujita Tornado Damage Scale
Radar Network
National WSR-88D Doppler Radars
Radar Network
National FAA TDWR Radars
TDWR = Terminal Doppler Weather Radar
Tornado Examples
J
January
10
10, 2008
Caledonia, MS
EF-3
Tornado
EF 3 T
d
41 min. lead time
2 000 people inside
2,000
only 3 minor injuries
Tornado Examples
February 5-6, 2008
Super Tuesday Outbreak
63 tornadoes
17 minute
i t lead
l d time
ti
57 fatalities
Tornado Examples
May 10, 2010 Tornado
EF 4 T
d
EF-4
Tornado
Outbreak
33 min. lead time
Outlook-Watch-Warning
Preparing
g the Public for Tornadoes
Outlooks
Watches
Tornado
Warnings
Outlook Phase
National Weather Service - Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 Convective Outlook
I
Issued
d 4:00
4 00 PM May
M 8
8, 2008
12
Watch Phase
Storm
Prediction
Center
Tornado
Watch #238
13
Warning Phase
NWS Baltimore/
Washington
Doppler Radar
Image
g 1036 PM
May 8, 2008
14
NOAA All Hazards
Warning System
National Weather Service Office
Civil Emergency
Message:
Local, State, Federal
NOAA Weather Radio
All Hazards
Other NWS Dissemination
Systems
Rt. 2, Severna Park, MD
Sept 28, 2006
Local Radio/TV/Media
(Emergency Alert System)
Voluntary broadcast
Public
How Public Receives
Warnings
NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio
NOAA Weather Wire Service (NWWS) (satellitebased)
Emergency Managers Weather Information
Network (EMWIN) (satellite-based)
Internet (http://weather.gov)
(http://weather gov)
Common Alerting Protocol Format
Emergency Alert System (broadcast media -TV &
Radio)
Sirens (for persons outdoors; not indoors!)
Mobile Devices (cell phone, Blackberry, etc.)
Satellite (e
(e.g.,
g XM radio)
NOAA All Hazards
Weather Radio
Government-operated network provides
direct warnings to the public
1 013 transmitters nationwide cover over
1,013
98% of the population
Entry point into Emergency Alert System
Alert operates 24 x 7
Able to reach you when you most need it
Low cost receiver units
System tested weekly
Recent Accomplishments
Improved Warning Delivery
NOAA W
th R
di All H
d (NWR)
Weather
Radio
Hazards
97,000 NWRs distributed to p
public schools
182,000+ NWRs distributed in FY 09
All schools – K-12 + Univ.
to be covered
Where We’re Headed
Storm-scale Model Forecast at 60 min
Projected low-level
reflectivity at 1 hour
from storm-scale NWP
model
Probabilistic
Tornado
W
Warning
i
Most
Likely
Tornado
Path
30%
50%
Severe Weather
S
Services
i
Improved Science & Tech:
R d enhancements
Radar
h
t
Model enhancements
N ti
National
l mesonett
70%
T+60min
T+50min
T+20min
T+40min
T 40 i
T+30min
60 Minute Forecast
Improved Services:
Longer lead times for
tornadoes and severe
thunderstorms
Decreased warned areas
and false alarms
Where We’re Headed
Communicating
g Forecast Confidence
Explicit information on the
certainty of a forecast to aid
g
in decision making
Confidence levels and probabilities
Educate users on how to interpret
information for decision making
Working Together
to Achieve Success
U.S. severe weather
among world’s worst
U S needs the world’s
U.S.
world s best
Weather Service
Partnerships with
emergency managers
essential