LŽŪU Mokslo potencialas

NOVA-BOVA, Tartu, Estonia, May 3-4, 2012
Bridging Countries – Bridging Generations
Urbanization
Water resources
Climate change
Aleksandras Stulginskis University, Lithuania
Dr. L. Taparauskienė
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Global Challenges
- John Beddington’s “Perfect Storm”
Urbanization
Energy Demand
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Climate Change
Population
Alleviating Poverty
Food Security
Water Demand
Biodiversity
Public Health
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Population increase
 Actual population
 7 billion (2011.10.31.)
http://www.census.gov/main/www/popclock.html
 Growth
 75 million per year
 1,1 % per year
 203 800 people per day
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Urban population
1960 – 1980 – 2011 – 2025
 The world urban population is expected to increase by 72 %
by 2050, from 3.6 billion in 2011 to 6.3 billion in 2050.
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Why do we care about urbanization?
 Urban areas provide many potential advantages for
improving living conditions through the economies
of scale and proximity they provide for most forms
of infrastructure and services.
 But there are very serious development problems
in many urban areas,
 high levels of urban poverty
 serious problems of food security
 high infant and child mortality
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Key issues with regard to agriculture and
urbanization
 whether the growing and changing demands for
agricultural products from growing urban
populations can be sustained?
 Globally, agriculture has met the demands from this
rapidly growing urban population, including food that
is more energy-, land-, water- and greenhouse gas
emission-intensive.
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A challenge?
 – need 50 % more production on less land, with less water
and using less energy by 2030
 Demand for food
 Will there be enough water to grow enough food?
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 Global change, at its root, is driven by two major
factors:
 the overall size and growth of the human population;
 by a combination of our life styles, our economies and
technology development, which drives our utilization of
and impacts on natural resources and increases the
wastes/pollutants we generate and discharge to the
environment.
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 Changes on earth are always a mixture
of natural and anthropogenic changes.
 Arguably, much of the success
associated with human survival and
prosperity has been related to our
ability to control and utilize water
resources to our benefit.
 We have developed reliable water supplies.
 We have protected humans and human development
 We have improved basic sanitation, controlled
pollutants, and developed reliable irrigation,
navigation, and energy systems.
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Predicted water scarcity and stress in 2025
 The challenge
for global
agriculture
is to grow
more food on
Total water
demand
are predicted
to increase
not much more land, using less water, fertiliser and
by over 30 % by 2030
pesticides than we have historically done.
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Will there be enough water to grow
enough food?
 It is possible to produce the food—but it is probable
that today’s food production and environmental
trends, if continued, will lead to crises in many parts of
the world. Only if we act to improve water use in
agriculture will we meet the acute freshwater
challenges facing humankind over the coming
50 years.
David Molden, 2007.
Comprehensive assessment of water assessment in agriculture
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 Water use in the world (2005)
 Water withdrawal and consumption (2005)
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Land and water use today and in the future under
different scenarios
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Ten Water Resource Concerns for the Next
Decade
 Water Resources Sustainability
 Water Resources Education and Information
 Water Resources and Climate
 Global Water Problems
 Infrastructure Concerns
 Watershed Management Problems
 Institutional Effects on Water Availability
 Concerns in Water Resources Management
Decisions
 Water and Energy
 Concerns About Water Quality
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Climate change
 Climate change is now recognised as one of the
most serious challenges…
 … It is a challenge that must and can be dealt with.
 When we talk about future there is One world, One
outcome, One chance…
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Climate change is now recognised as one of the most serious
challenges facing the world – its people, the environment and its
economies
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Climate challenge
 Agriculture will face many challenges over the
coming decades, such as increasing international
competition, further liberalisation of trade policy and
further declines in the rural population in many
regions. Climate change adds to these pressures.
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Twin climate change challenges for agriculture
Breakdown of agricultural GHG emissions and share in EU total
emissions (EU-27) – 2005
 Climate change presents a double challenge today:
to cut the emissions of gases responsible for
warming (known as mitigation); and to adapt to
future climate change to lessen its adverse effects.
 These are major challenges for European Union (EU)
agriculture and agricultural policy-making.
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Projected change by the end of the 21st
Century
 in mean annual temperature
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 in mean annual precipitation
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Key climate change concerns for European
agriculture
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 Agriculture can contribute further to the effort
against climate change:
 Conversion of animal waste into biogas
 Organic farming methods
 Enhancing the carbon sink function of agricultural
soils
 Renewable resources for bio-energies and bioproducts
 Providing environmental services
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Improving our knowledge
 Adaptation planning in agriculture cannot be done
on the basis of global knowledge about changes in
climate patterns, but needs detailed information on
regional impacts and meaningful assessment of the
adaptive options and their feasibility at local and
farm level.
 Successful adaptation will require the collaboration
from EU to national, regional and local.
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Concluding
 More research into the impact of climate change on
agriculture (and vice versa) is needed.
 The biggest challenge is to guarantee the
sustainability of European agriculture and rural
areas, bringing economic and social viability and
resilience to climate change.
 “Agriculture in the world cannot be sustainable
without science”
Dr. Per Pinstrup Anderson, professor of food,
nutrition and public policy, Cornell University;
Former Director General, IFPRI
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Concluding
 Science and technology must play a leading role in
meeting increasing demand over the coming
decades in a sustainable manner. Scientific
evidence also underpins the range of domestic
policies and international agreements needed.
 International scientific collaboration is essential to
solve the major global problems.
 Bridging countries – bridging generations for our
common future!
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Thank you for your attention !
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