Peluang dan Tantangan Import dan Produksi Rekayasa Genetika

Peluang dan Tantangan Import dan Produksi
Benih Rekayasa Genetik untuk Pemenuhan
Kebutuhan Pakan dan Pangan
Outline
• Agricultural Challenges
• Innovation of Ag & Seed Technologies
• Biotechnology: RR corn and BT corn
• How Seed Industry can enable Farmers to
overcome these Challenges
2
2
Agricultural
Challenges
3
Tantangan
Pertanian berada ditengah perubahan global
PENINGKATAN
9.6M+
PERUBAHAN
7.1M
4.4M
1980
SEKARANG
2050
PENGURANGAN
0.4 HA
per orang
1961
4
Kurangdari
0.1
HA
per orang
2050
1990
PERUBAHAN
2012
9%
14%
th 1965
th 2030
PERSENTASE KONSUMSI DAGING
Tantangan
Pertumbuhan penduduk membutuhkan inovasi dalam
pertanian
PENINGKATAN
9.6M+
7.1M
4.4M
1980
5
Source: http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/
2014
2050
Pertanian Harus memproduksi lebih banyak
pangan dengan lebih sedikit sumber daya alam
PENGURANGAN
0.4 HA
per orang
1961
6
Source: The World Bank, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO-STAT), Monsanto Internal Calculations
kurang dari
0.1 HA
per orang
2050
Tantangan
Tantangan
Pertumbuhan Kelas menengah global yang
bergantung pada protein hewani semakin tinggi
PERUBAHAN
9%
14%
PERSENTASE KONSUMSI DAGING
1965
7
2030
Source: UN FAO Food Balance Sheet, World Health Organization “Global and regional food consumption patterns and trends”
Tantangan
Tanaman Menghadapi Tantangan Berganda disebabkan
Perubahan Iklim
PERUBAHAN
Pergeseran
Zona tanaman
Peningkatan cuaca
yang ekstrim
8
Source: US Third National Climate Assessment (2013)
Ekspansi
Dampak
Perubahan Peningkatan
Kisaran
penyakit
terhadap
Dalam
serangga gangguan gulma tanaman Ketersediaan air
Potensi Kehilangan Hasil Karena Gulma
Vegetative stages
VE
V1
6
12
V2 V3
V4
V5
21
planting
V6
V7
27
V8
V10
V12
V13-17
VT
33
40
45
46-55
56-60
25-50%
Days after planting
15-30%
10-20%
Reproductive stages
55-90%
Stadia reproductive
R1 - Silking
R2 - Blister
57-60
67-72
R3 - Milk
R4 - Dough
R5 - Dent
R6 - Maturity
75-80
81-86
91-96
115-120
Days after planting
30-40%
TOTAL POTENTIAL YIELD LOSS
Stadia vegetative
30-40%
9
Yield loss estimated at 1.5-3% for every corn leaf stage pass the criticial
period for weed control. (Data from Knezevic S. Z., et. al., Yield Penalty
Due to Delayed Weed Control in Corn and Soybean, 2003)
Serangga hama pada Jagung
10
The World in 2014 – Corn
Consumption 939m MT
Europe/CIS
Production: 124 m MT
Consumption: 103 m MT
Imports:
10 m MT
Exports:
27 m MT
Net Exports: 17 m MT
Asia/Oceania
Production: 281 m MT
Consumption: 322 m MT
Imports:
54 m MT
Exports:
5 m MT
Net Exports: (49) m MT
North America
Production: 394 m MT
Consumption: 354 m MT
Imports:
18 m MT
Exports:
43 m MT
Net Exports: 25 m MT
11
Source: Monsanto Model
South America
Production: 111 m MT
Consumption: 82 m MT
Imports:
11 m MT
Exports:
42 m MT
Net Exports: 31 m MT
Africa
Production: 64 m MT
Consumption: 78 m MT
Imports:
16 m MT
Exports:
3 m MT
Net Exports: (13) m MT
The World in 2025 – Corn
Asia, Africa, Lat Am = Consume 20% More in 10 Years
Consumption 1074m MT
20%
Europe/CIS
Production: 126 m MT
Consumption: 107 m MT
Imports:
8 m MT
Exports:
27 m MT
Net Exports: 19 m MT
12%, 2m MT Increased
Imports
Asia / Asia-Pacific
Production: 318 m MT
Consumption:388 m MT
Imports:
78 m MT
Exports:
7 m MT
Net Exports: (70 m MT)
43%, 21m MT
Increased Imports
North America
Production: 432 m MT
Consumption: 378 m MT
Imports:
23 m MT
Exports:
77 m MT
Net Exports: 54 m MT
116%, 29m MT
Increased Imports
12
Source: Monsanto Model
South America
Production: 134 m MT
Consumption: 103 m MT
Imports:
15 m MT
Exports:
46 m MT
Net Exports: 31 m MT
Consumption &
Production Increase
Africa
Production: 76 m MT
Consumption: 98 m MT
Imports:
25 m MT
Exports:
3 m MT
Net Exports: (22 m MT)
69%, 9m MT
Increased Imports
Corn Grain Consumption is Projected to
Outpace Production
Corn - Domestic Consumption Less Domestic
Production
16,000
14,000
1,000 MT
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024
Indonesia
Malaysia
Pakistan
Philippines
Thailand
Vietnam
• Gap b/w Domestic Production & Consumption
expected to Widen, driven by increasing population
13
& income,
Indonesia - Corn Import Volume & Value up 10X in 5
Years
4,000,000
3,500,000
3,000,000
2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
-
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014*
Import (Ton)
333,936
1,907,765
3,144,420
1,687,075
3,180,480
3,600,000
Value Import (KUS$)
97,145
554,986
914,740
490,785
925,231
1,047,273
GPMT : Indonesia Feed Mills Company Association
14 : BPS (Indonesia Statistic Bureau) and GPMT
Data source
14
Innovation of Ag & Seed
Technologies
15
INOVASI
16
Bagaimana Inovasi dirancang untuk menjawab
tantangan tersebut?
MENINGKATKAN
Hasil
MENGURANGI
Dampak Hama
& penyakit serta
cekaman abiotik
17
Inovasi
Menggandakan keuntungan inovasi dengan
menggabungkan semua kemampuan untuk mengatasi
masalah and meningkatkan efisiensi
BIOLOGICALS
BREEDING
Derived from natural
materials to support plant
health and pest protection
Highest yielding
genetics for the environment:
conventional breeding gains
and natural disease resistance
CHEMISTRY
BIOTECHNOLOGY
AGRONOMICS
Complementary
agronomic and
yield-enhancing traits
18
Optimizing farm
management practices,
including rotations, soil
management, cover crops
Seed treatments and
selective chemistries protect
the crop from pests, weeds
and diseases
Biotechnology: RR corn and BT corn
19
Inovasi
BIOTEKNOLOGI
hasil
Jagung tahan
Roundup, tahan terhadap
hama dan tahan hama
penggerek batang
BIOTEKNOLOGI PERTANIAN SUDAH DITELITI LEBIH
DARI 30 TAHUN DAN DITANAM SECARA KOMERSIAL
SELAMA 17 TAHUN
20
Tanaman GMO menghasilkan pangan yang sama
aman dan kandungannya dengan jagung
konvensional
1.8 M
HA LUAS TANAM
USED FOR GMO CROPS SINCE 1996
600+
KAJIAN BEBAS
SUPPORT THAT GMO CROPS ARE JUST AS SAFE AS
THOSE DEVELOPED THROUGH TRADITIONAL BREEDING
30 TAHUN
THAT GMO CROPS HAVE BEEN RESEARCHED AND DEVELOPED
21
30 NEGARA
Inovasi
AROUND THE WORLD WHERE GM CROPS ARE GROWN TODAY
12 TAHUN
REQUIRED TO DEVELOP AND TEST GMO SEEDS
BEFORE THEY’RE GROWN COMMERCIALLY IN THE U.S.
(MORE THAN MANY MEDICATIONS)
Benefits of Corn Seeds for Weed Management
E.g. Roundup Ready Corn 2® Tech (NK603)
offer farmers a choice to better manage weeds,
improve efficiency of farm operations, optimize yield potential
Corn Seeds for Weed Management Benefits
(Corn Brand + RoundUp Ready Protein) +
Roundup Over-the-Top Weedicide)
Efficacy, Convenience & Flexibility in Weed
Control
• Manage Broad Spectrum of Weeds
• Wide Application Window (Pre-Sowing to
Harvest vs. current Selective Herbicides)
Environmental Benefits
• Nil Soil Residual activity
• Low Toxicity
Unweede
Excellent Fit in Low Tillage Systems
Economic Benefits
• Scale-Neutral Tool for Small & Large Farmers
(cost of cultivation only as per individual land
holding & weed pressure)
22
Benefits of Corn Seeds for Weed Management
E.g. Roundup Ready Corn 2® Tech (NK603)
offer farmers a choice to better manage weeds,
improve efficiency of farm operations, optimize yield potential
25 Days After Planting
Corn Field from Corn Hybrid Seeds with In-theSeed Weed Management Protein (Roundup
Ready Corn) + Roundup Weedicide Spray 10
Days After Roundup Application at 2L / ha
25 Days After Planting
Un-weeded Corn Field
23
Source: Monsanto Technology Department, Luzon Philipp
POTENSI NILAI MANFAAT ROUNDUP READY CORN DI INDONESIA
Monsanto - Technology Development 2014
PROVINSI YANG DISURVEY
Sumatera Utara
Lampung
Jawa Tengah
Jawa Timur
24
Efisiensi Biaya Pengendalian
(Rp/ha)
minus Rp. 220,000
Potensi Persen Peningkatan
Hasil Panen dan Nilai Rupiah Potensi Manfat
Panen/ha
Total/ha
15% / Rp 3,500,000
Rp. 3,280,000
Herbisida:
Minus Rp. 180,000
Manual/ kombinasi:
Herbisida:
15%/Rp 2,200,00
Manual/ kombinasi:
Rp. 2,020, 000
plus Rp. 50,000
13% / Rp 2,000,000
Rp. 2,050, 000
Manual:
plus Rp. 600,000
Manual:
10% / Rp 1,600,000
Rp. 2,200,000
Herbisida/ Kombinasi
Herbisida/ Kombinasi
plus Rp. 320,000
15 % / Rp. 2,500,000
Rp. 2,820,000
Manual:
Rp. 460,000
Manual:
10% / Rp 2.100,000
Rp. 2,560,000
Asian Corn Borer Pest reduces Yield
Corn Hybrid Seeds with In-the-Seed Insect Protection
reduce Insecticide Sprays, help optimize Yield Potential
Asian Corn Borer (ACB) is
the #1 major pest of Corn in
South East Asia.
25
Corn Earworm,
Army worm, & Cut worm
are also sporadic
pests, which impact yield.
25
Asian Corn Borers cause Significant Yield Loss
Comparison of Corn Stalk Tunneling
Corn borers tunnel
into the stalk &
ear shank to create
extensive damage,
many times not visible
until farmer harvest
less yield / lost yield.
Corn protected with
In-the-seed
YieldGard technology
Protects against corn
borers ensuring
superior
stalk quality.
26
Source: Monsanto Technology Department, 2010
Corn Stalks from
Corn Stalks from
Corn Hybrid Seeds
Hybrid Seeds
with In-the-Seed
Conventional
Insect Protection Proteins
26
Hasil Survey Tingkat Serangan Hama
Penggerek Batang di Indonesia (2011-2013)
POTENSI
TAHU
KEHILANGAN
N
MUSIM
PROVINSI SURVEI HASIL (%)
2011 KEMARAU JAWA TIMUR
25
2012 KEMARAU
2013 KEMARAU
27
5
4
5,356,585
1,067,775
748,650
7
1,089,625
20
3,944,040
10
1,897,500
750,030
842,145
2011
HUJAN
2012
HUJAN
JAWA TIMUR
JAWA TENGAH
SUMATERA
UTARA
SUMATERA
UTARA
SUMATERA
UTARA
2013
HUJAN
JAWA TIMUR
4
2013
HUJAN
LAMPUNG
5
2013 KEMARAU
NILAI TAMBAH BILA
MENGGUNAKAN
JAGUNG BT TAHAN
HAMA
Corn Pipeline Technologies Address Stress Tolerance, Nutrient
Utilization and Next-Generation Insect and Weed Control
GLYPHOSATE TOLERANT CORN
INSECT TOLERANCE CORN
FOPs-TOLERANT CORN
1996
GOSS’S WILT-RESISTANT CORN*
GRAY LEAF SPOT-RESISTANT CORN*
NITROGEN UTILIZATION CORN
Weed
Management
Solutions
Yield
&
Stress
Next
Generation
Insect Control
28
DICAMBA- AND GLUFOSINATE-TOLERANT
CORN
CORN BORER III
2ND-GENERATION DROUGHT-TOLERANT CORN
HIGHER YIELDING CORN
ROOTWORM III
ROUNDUP® HYBRIDIZATION SYSTEM FOR CORN
DROUGHT-TOLERANT CORN
REFUGE-IN-A-BAG REDUCED REFUGE FAMILY
2011+
*Denotes a breeding project
Commercialization dependent on many factors, including successful conclusion of regulatory process
How Seed Industry can enable Indonesia’s
Farmers to Overcome these Challenges
29
Indonesia Corn Landscape
46%
54%
30
Major
Corn Area 2.487.980 ha Hybrid 62% OPV
38%
30
Indonesia Agriculture Summary
Indonesia Key Challenges in Agriculture
1. Rising population – 15% by 2025, 47% by 2050 (248 M in 2013 to 284* M in 2025)
2. Changing Economics & Diet – growing middle class is choosing more protein (animal)
3. Shrinking arable land – more than 100 K Ha / year converted in to other function
– Agriculture uses 55% arable land. Daily area equal to 36% of Jakarta (approx. 27,000
Ha) abandoned due to soil loss/degradation
4. Climate Change – low yield, pest & disease pressure
5. 80% of the bottom fifth of income earners reside in rural areas. 72% (172 Million) face
acute food insecurity & live in rural & semi-rural areas. 60% of the poorest live on small
farms. 43% are employed in farming.
6. Agriculture Import contribute to Trade Balance Negative
Indonesia Key Opportunity in Agriculture – Corn
1. Improve Lives of Farmers & Farm Labour in Rural Areas …. create Jobs in Villages
2. Support Feed Industry Need & Growth
3. Feed the Nation, maybe ASEAN / World as Net Exporter of Corn
4. Net Positive Environmental Impact – Stop Deforestation for Food Production
31
*
BPS data
31
Suggestions/Recommendations
1.
Encourage Farmers to convert from OPV to Hybrid
2.
Public Private Partnership (PPP)
• PISAgro Corn Ecosystem Partnership Model
– Better Inputs esp. Lower Bank Loan Interest Rates (8x Less!),
Better Seeds & Practices, Post Harvest & Guaranteed Procurement
3.
Better Market Linkages
4.
Transfer / Access to Technology
32
32
How to Reduce Corn Import – Two Paths : IPB
Two Options/Paths to Create additional 6.7 Mio MT + 2.3 Mio MT = 9 Mio MT
• Current Hybrid Farmers adopt Hybrids with Biotech = 10-17% Yield Increase*
– Hybrids on 1.955 Mio Ha land X 1.2 MT/Ha (Incremental Yield of 17% of 7 MT)
= + 2.3 Mio MT
+ Increase Farmer Income by 20%, Optimize Cost by 15%
How To: Approve Corn Seeds with Biotech, Seed & Feed Industry can enable
• Govt. Incentivises Current OPV Farmers to Convert to Hybrid = 3-7 MT/Ha
– OPV on 1.666 Mio Ha land X 4 MT/Ha
= + 6.7 Mio MT
– How to:
• Needs Massive Implementation of Government Subsidy Program Targeted at each OPV Farmer to transition &
use Right Farming Behaviors
• Create/Incentivize Feed Industry to Develop Market Linkages & Infrastructure, Silos & Roads
• Transfer Technology = Biotech + Good Farming/ Agronomic Practices
*LPPM
33 – Care IPB
33
Executive Summary
• We believe Indonesia can achieve Self-Sufficiency in Corn
• We believe Indonesia can support Asia Pacific in Corn Grain
• There are existing technologies farmers use in other parts of the
world that can support production growth
• A Collaborative Ecosystem Approach & Shared Responsibility from
Policy + Products + Practices + Partnerships
can make this reality
• Need to put Farmers @ the Centre
34
34
TERIMA KASIH
35
Indonesian Farmers Impact Forecast of Corn Hybrid
Seeds with Traits : PG Economics, UK
• Farmers’ Average Corn Yield Increase upto +15%
• Addl Income of $200 – 500/ha vs. Conventional Corn Hybrid Seeds or Open
Pollinated Varietal (OPV) Seeds
• Cumulative Farmers Addl Income around $350 Million at 40% Trait Adoption in
10 years (Monsanto Forecast 80% Trait Adoption at 65% of Hybridization)
• Farmers’ Addl Income = Improve quality of life
– Improving diets, home improvements, purchase of goods & services,
healthcare & children’s education
– Women reduced time hand weeding = Childcare, alternative agricultural or
non-agricultural employment
– Children stop hand weeding = spend more time on education
37
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