Audience Demand for Golden Globe Winning and Nominated Shows

Audience Demand for
Golden Globe
Winning and Nominated
Shows
Exclusively for Home Media
Magazine
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Introduction
Cross-Platform Audience Demand Measurement
To solve the industry’s measurement challenge with the rapid proliferation of content distribution
platforms and unprecedented levels of consumer fragmentation, Parrot Analytics has developed
the world’s first and only global cross-platform, country-specific and real-time content demand
measurement system.
Demand Expressions™ – are a country-specific measure of the overall demand being expressed
for a title in a given market. It is designed to enable the comparison of the audience demand for
content in the same market – regardless of which platform the content airs on.
Demand Expressions™ have the following characteristics:
• Are are most empirical representation of audience demand for a TV show in a
specific country at a given time
• They encompass all various forms of demand expressed by audiences, weighted by
importance using Parrot Analytics' DemandRank™ system (for example, watching an
episode is a stronger expression of demand than posting a comment about it on
social media)
• There is no ceiling to how many Demand Expressions™ a title can generate
In this report, we study the audience demand for Golden Globe winning and
nominated TV shows in 2016 using Demand Expressions™ in the United States
over the last two months.
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Did the Golden Globes
Increase Demand for the
Winning and Nominated Shows?
The Golden Globes often have surprising results, and this year’s awards show on January 10th was
no different. Regular awards juggernauts Game of Thrones and Netflix’s digital originals came away
empty-handed, while lower-profile shows such as Amazon’s Mozart in the Jungle and USA’s Mr. Robot
won in multiple categories.
How does winning at the Golden Globes affect audience demand for a show, especially for
some of the lesser known shows? To answer this question, we find the demand for the winning
shows in the drama, comedy and limited series categories from the four weeks before and four
weeks after the Golden Globes, and assess if the difference is significant enough to say that the
audience demand for these titles has changed.
First, the time series of Demand Expressionstm for Mozart in the Jungle (comedy winner), Mr. Robot
(drama winner) and BBC’s Wolf Hall (limited series winner) is plotted to observe the general trend:
Audience Demand for Golden Globe Winners in the United States
GOLDEN GLOBES SHOW
DEMAND EXPRESSIONS™
35M
25M
15M
5M
14 th Dec 2015
21st
28 ht
4 th Jan 2016
11th
Mozart in the Jungle
Mr. Robot
3
18 th
Wolf Hall
25 th
1st Feb
7th Feb 2016
The day after the Golden Globes, on January 11th, demand for all three shows increased
dramatically. Mozart in the Jungle and Mr. Robot had nearly the same demand during this spike
while Wolf Hall only had about 30% of their demand. Demand for all three shows appears to
be higher after the Golden Globes than before it, especially for Mozart in the Jungle which had
demand even lower than Wolf Hall four weeks before the event.
To judge exactly how much the Golden Globes boosted audience demand for these shows,
we use the median to aggregate the Demand Expressionstm for each title both before and after
the Golden Globes. The median is used to minimize the effect of the January 11th spike in
demand, and the day of the Golden Globes, January 10th, is included in the “before” category.
DEMAND
EXPRESSIONS™
BEFORE
DEMAND
EXPRESSIONS™
AFTER
PERCENT
CHANGE
CATEGORY
TITLE
Comedy
Mozart in the Jungle
2,147,778
4,734,332
120.43%
Drama
Mr. Robot
8,019,472
9,649,253
20.32%
Limited Series
Wolf Hall
880,601
1,216,008
38.09%
From this table, we see that demand for each show increased significantly after the Golden
Globes. Demand for Mozart in the Jungle increased the most, with the median demand after its
awards 120% greater than demand beforehand. Though demand for Mr. Robot increased the
least, it had the most demand out of these three titles both before and after the Golden Globes.
Therefore, we conclude that their wins at the Golden Globes increased audience demand
for the three winners in the drama, comedy and limited series categories for the month
following the awards ceremony.
Winning shows clearly get a boost to demand due to their exposure at the Golden Globes, but
do the other nominated series also enjoy an increase in demand? We conduct the same analysis
with the four other titles in each category, starting with the time series of their demand:
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Audience Demand for Comedy Nominees
GOLDEN GLOBES SHOW
8M
DEMAND EXPRESSIONS™
6M
4M
2M
14 th Dec 2015
21st
28 ht
4 th Jan 2016
Orange Is The New Black
11th
Silicon Valley
18 th
25 th
Transparent
1st Feb
7th
1st Feb
7ht
Casual
Audience Demand for Drama Nominees
GOLDEN GLOBES SHOW
DEMAND EXPRESSIONS™
30M
20M
10M
5M
14 th Dec 2015
21st
28 ht
4 th Jan 2016
Game of Thrones
11th
Empire
5
18 th
Outlander
25 th
Narcos
Audience Demand for Limited Series Nominees
GOLDEN GLOBES SHOW
DEMAND EXPRESSIONS™
30M
20M
10M
14 th Dec 2015
21st
28 ht
4 th Jan 2016
American Horror Story
Fargo
11th
18 th
American Crime
25 th
1st Feb
7th
Flesh and Bone
While some shows, such as Orange is the New Black and American Crime, appear to increase in
demand after the Golden Globes, none have the distinctive spike in demand that the winning
shows had.
The table of median demand before and after the Golden Globes confirms the trend seen in the
plots: being nominated is not enough to boost audience demand for the nominated show after
an awards show.
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DEMAND
EXPRESSIONS™
BEFORE
DEMAND
EXPRESSIONS™
AFTER
PERCENT
CHANGE
CATEGORY
TITLE
Comedy
Casual
1,427,648
757,737
-46.92%
Comedy
Orange Is The New Black
5,727,167
6,445,695
12.55%
Comedy
Silicon Valley
6,301,535
6,078,057
-3.55%
Comedy
Transparent
5,988,043
3,242,426
-45.85%
Drama
Empire
10,139,486
11,714,787
15.54%
Drama
Game of Thrones
17,270,668
17,146,403
-0.72%
Drama
Narcos
600,238
3,386,296
464.16%
Drama
Outlander
4,451,303
3,729,738
-16.21%
Limited Series
American Crime
4,203,534
7,422,312
76.57%
Limited Series
American Horror Story
20,375,987
19,043,535
-6.54%
Limited Series
Fargo
15,793,370
10,570,947
-33.07%
Limited Series
Flesh and Bone
1,244,716
935,908
-24.81%
Excluding the outlier Narcos, which had a significant increase in demand before the Golden Globes,
the average percent change in demand for the nominated shows is about -6%, as opposed to
the winners’ average of 60%. This insignificant change, along with the lack of any visible change
in demand around January 10th (either positive or negative), indicates that demand for these
shows was not affected by their nominations at the Golden Globes.
When it comes to audience demand for Golden Globe
winners and nominees, it would seem that there is no prize
for second place and winners do take it all.
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Appendix
Methodology for Measuring
Global Audience Demand
Global Content Demand
Consumers express their demand for content through various ‘demand expression platforms’
including:
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Video Streaming Platforms
Social Media Platforms
Photo Sharing Platforms
Blogging & Micro-Blogging Platforms
Fan & Critic Rating Platforms
Wikis & Informational Sites
Peer-to-Peer Protocols
File-Sharing Platforms
Harnessing the power of cutting-edge artificial intelligence and hundreds of billions of data
points across the various demand expression platforms, Parrot Analytics is able to combine the
different methods consumers use to express their demand for content into the industry’s first
and only cross-platform global content demand rating system.
For more information, email [email protected]
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