Poultry Pocketbook 2015 - Bpex

Transcription

Poultry Pocketbook
2015
BPEX
Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board
Stoneleigh Park
Kenilworth
Warwickshire
CV8 2TL
Tel: 024 7669 2051
www.bpex.org.uk
© Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board 2015. All rights reserved.
Cover Images:
Hen - Sevenke/Shutterstock.com
Raw Chicken - Marek Gottschalk/Shutterstock.com
While the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board, operating through its BPEX division, seeks to
ensure that the information contained within this document is accurate at the time of printing, no warranty
is given in respect thereof and, to the maximum extent permitted by law, the Agriculture and Horticulture
Development Board accepts no liability for loss, damage or injury howsoever caused (including that caused
by negligence) or suffered directly or indirectly in relation to information and opinions contained in or
omitted from this document.
BPEX is a division of the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB).
ISBN 978-1-904437-85-0
Contents
Poultry Pocketbook 2015
Page
Chapter 1 Marketing chain
Table 1.1
UK poultry meat supply balance ................................................. 3
Table 1.2
UK eggs supply balance ............................................................... 3
Table 1.3
EU poultry meat supply balance ................................................. 4
Table 1.4
EU egg supply balance ................................................................. 4
Chapter 2 Poultry numbers
Figure 2.1
Density of poultry flock, June 2013 ............................................ 5
Table 2.1
UK poultry numbers, June survey................................................ 6
Table 2.2 UK chick and poult placings ......................................................... 6
Chapter 3 Slaughterings and production
Table 3.1
UK poultry slaughterings ............................................................. 7
Table 3.2
UK poultry meat production ....................................................... 7
Figure 3.1
UK broiler meat production ........................................................ 8
Figure 3.2
Average liveweight of broilers in England and Wales ................. 8
Table 3.3
UK egg packing station throughput ............................................ 9
Table 3.4
UK production of egg products by processors ........................... 9
Figure 3.3
EU broiler meat production, 2014 ............................................. 10
Figure 3.4
EU egg production for human consumption, 2014 ................... 10
Chapter 4 Poultry and egg prices
Table 4.1
Average UK egg packer price paid to producers ....................... 11
Figure 4.1
Average poultry compound feed price, GB .............................. 12
Figure 4.2
UK wholesale chicken prices ..................................................... 12
1
Contents
Page
Figure 4.3
UK wholesale hens’ egg prices .................................................. 13
Figure 4.4
EU and UK broiler (65%) meat wholesale market price ............ 13
Figure 4.5
EU and UK egg (large and medium) wholesale market price ... 14
Chapter 5 Imports and exports
Table 5.1
UK egg trade by volume ............................................................ 15
Table 5.2
Volume and value of UK poultry meat imports ........................ 16
Table 5.3
Volume and value of UK poultry meat exports ........................ 16
Table 5.4
UK fresh/frozen poultry meat imports by source ..................... 17
Table 5.5
UK fresh/frozen poultry meat exports by destination ............. 17
Table 5.6
UK processed poultry meat imports by source ........................ 18
Table 5.7
UK processed poultry meat exports by destination ................. 18
Chapter 6 Consumption
Table 6.1
UK per capita consumption of poultry meat and total meat.... 19
Table 6.2
GB retail chicken and egg value sales by type of outlet ........... 19
Figure 6.1
Trends in GB household chicken purchases by volume ............ 20
Figure 6.2
Trends in GB household egg purchases by volume .................. 20
Figure 6.3
Change in GB retail volume and value sales of chicken
by product, 2014 ........................................................................ 21
Figure 6.4
GB volume sales of chicken by product, 2014 .......................... 21
Figure 6.5
Change in GB retail volume and value sales of eggs, 2014 ....... 22
Figure 6.6
GB volume sales of eggs, 2014 .................................................. 22
Figure 6.7
Average GB retail price of chicken cuts, 2014 ........................... 23
Figure 6.8
Average GB retail price of eggs, 2014 ....................................... 23
Figure 6.9
Proportion of chicken products sold on promotion
in GB retail outlets ..................................................................... 24
Figure 6.10
Proportion of eggs sold on promotion in GB retail outlets ...... 24
2
Marketing chain
Chapter 1 – Marketing chain
Table 1.1 UK poultry meat supply balance (a)
'000 tonnes
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Production
1,538
1,558
1,607
1,661
1,643
Imports (b)
774
857
817
824
872
315
344
334
382
385
Total consumption
Exports (b)
1,998
2,070
2,091
2,103
2,129
Self-sufficiency (%)
77
75
77
79
77
(a) Includes offals.
(b) Data now includes trade in salted poultry meat.
All data in carcase weight equivalent.
Source: Defra, GTIS/HMRC, AHDB Market Intelligence
Table 1.2 UK eggs supply balance
million dozen
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013*
751
826
821
797
829
of which: sold in shell
597
673
664
654
695
154
152
158
143
134
Imports (a)
149
136
126
163
153
Exports (b)
9
8
11
19
23
Total consumption
890
953
937
941
958
84
87
88
85
87
Production (for human consumption)
processed
(a) Includes shell egg equivalent of whole egg (dried, frozen and liquid), egg yolk and albumen.
(b) Includes hatching eggs for export and waste.
Note: Defra has made major revisions to the trade data compared with last year’s edition of the
pocketbook.
* Provisional
Source: Defra
3
Marketing chain
Table 1.3 EU poultry meat supply balance
'000 tonnes
Indigenous production
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014 (e)
12,953
13,215
13,484
13,731
14,091
Imports
783
798
797
752
755
Exports
1,157
1,215
1,246
1,238
1,281
Total consumption
12,578
12,797
13,034
13,245
13,566
103
103
103
104
104
Includes poultry offals.
(e) estimate
Note: EU-27 to 2012, EU-28 from 2013 onwards.
Source: EU Commission
Table 1.4 EU egg supply balance
'000 tonnes
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014 (e)
Gross indigenous production
7,297
7,303
7,265
7,333
7,434
33
20
37
21
13
Exports
182
217
186
215
229
Eggs for hatching
880
874
987
812
870
6,268
6,231
6,129
6,327
6,348
102
103
102
103
103
Imports
Human consumption
All data is in whole egg equivalent.
(e) estimate.
Note: EU-27 for all years
4
Poultry numbers
Chapter 2 – Poultry numbers
Figure 2.1 Density of poultry flock, June 2013
Data covers commercial holdings only.
Source: AHDB Market Intelligence, Defra, Welsh Government, DARD, Scottish Government
5
Poultry numbers
Table 2.1 UK poultry numbers, June survey
million head (a)
Total poultry
Total breeding and laying fowl
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
164
163
160
163
170
47
49
47
47
48
of which:
Hens and pullets laying eggs for eating
37
38
37
36
37
Total breeding flock
10
10
10
11
11
105
102
103
105
110
11
11
11
11
11
4
4
4
4
4
Table chickens (broilers)
Other poultry
of which:
Turkeys
(a) Due to production cycles, subgroups within the poultry population are often volatile as the
‘point in time’ nature of the June Survey can lead to large variations in the numbers in each
category.
Source: Defra
Table 2.2 UK chick and poult placings
million head
2011
2012
2013
2014
904
896
918
943
937
Commercial layers
34
32
35
34
35
Turkeys (b)
16
17
18
17
16
6
7
7
7
8
Commercial broilers
Female broiler breeders (c)
2010 (a)
(a) 53-week statistical year.
(b) Includes female breeder poults.
(c) Female parents only. Excludes grandparent chicks and ‘by-product’ chicks. Includes
imported female parent chicks.
Source: Defra
6
Slaughterings and production
Chapter 3 – Slaughterings and production
Table 3.1 UK poultry slaughterings
million head
2000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010 (a)
2011
2012
2013
2014
Broilers
760
827
813
805
792
799
863
855
874
902
900
Boiling fowl
38
37
36
37
39
40
41
44
46
42
41
Turkeys
27
19
18
16
16
15
16
17
18
18
15
(a) 53-week statistical year.
Note: Boiling fowl includes spent hens and spent breeders.
Source: Defra
Table 3.2 UK poultry meat production (a)
'000 tonnes
2000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010 (b)
2011
2012
2013
2014
Broilers
Boiling fowl
1,163
1,282
1,237
1,212
1,214
1,220
1,323
1,297
1,322
1,388
1,384
51
51
53
52
56
50
53
56
58
55
52
Turkey
Ducks
Total
264
192
178
165
160
157
162
171
196
187
173
41
42
41
36
33
30
30
33
32
30
32
1,519
1,567
1,509
1,464
1,462
1,457
1,568
1,558
1,607
1,661
1,641
(a) Excludes other bird types, eg geese.
(b) 53-week statistical year.
Source: Defra
7
Figure 3.1 UK broiler meat production
'000 tonnes
1,400
1,323
1,282
1,300
1,237
1,200
1,212
1,214
1,220
2007
2008
2009
1,297
1,388
1,384
2013
2014
1,322
1,163
1,100
1,000
2000
2005
2006
2010
2011
2012
Source: Defra
Figure 3.2 Average liveweight of broilers in England and Wales
kg
2.26
2.24
2.24
2.22
2.24
2.21
2.21
2.20
2.20
2.19
2.18
2.23
2.21
2.18
2.19
2.16
2.16
2.14
2.12
2.10
2000
Source: Defra
8
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Table 3.3 UK egg packing station throughput
Total
Enriched
Barn
Free range
2000
'000 cases
22,460
16,187
1,675
4,598
Organic
2005
24,584
15,558
1,564
7,462
n/a
2006
24,021
15,053
1,229
6,541
1,198
n/a
2007
23,537
14,544
937
6,692
1,363
2008
24,680
14,395
926
8,000
1,359
2009
24,616
13,445
1,035
9,137
999
2010
27,067
13,522
1,334
11,283
928
2011
26,921
13,128
1,075
11,879
838
662
2012
25,922
12,596
948
11,716
2013
26,901
13,606
890
11,795
610
2014
27,097
14,097
782
11,591
627
1 case = 360 eggs
n/a = Not available
Source: Defra
Table 3.4 UK production of egg products by processors
Other
Total
2000
tonnes
Liquid egg
75,022
Hard boiled
n/a
16,756
91,778
120,345
2005
78,066
28,649
13,630
2006
72,786
31,663
9,065
113,514
2007
75,027
28,002
2,590
105,619
2008
73,502
30,490
2009
63,442
30,282
103,991
93,724
2010
64,459
33,188
97,648
100,426
2011
67,908
32,518
2012
66,338
24,503
90,841
2013
62,338
32,667
95,005
2014
66,910
34,968
101,878
n/a = Not available
Source: Defra
9
Figure 3.3 EU broiler meat production, 2014
'000 tonnes
2,500
2,060
2,000
1,855
1,384
1,500
1,255
1,112
1,053
872
1,000
770
500
329
246
0
PL
UK
DE
FR
ES
IT
NL
HU
BE
Others
Source: Eurostat
Figure 3.4 EU egg production for human consumption, 2014
'000 tonnes
1,400
1,260
1,200
1,000
927
790
800
785
656
645
632
600
520
350
400
200
0
FR
IT
10
DE
NL
ES
UK
PL
RO
Others
Poultry and egg prices
Chapter 4 – Poultry and egg prices
Table 4.1 Average UK egg packer price paid to producers
pence per dozen
2000
Enriched
Barn
Free range
39.7
All
32.3
48.6
62.3
Organic
2005
45.7
34.4
52.0
67.9
2006
50.2
37.1
51.5
67.9
c
2007
58.6
43.3
55.8
77.8
c
2008
70.7
52.8
70.6
89.8
c
2009
72.6
55.4
72.7
90.2
c
2010
70.1
53.6
72.2
84.4
135.5
2011
70.0
53.9
72.6
83.1
131.6
2012
86.2
72.2
c
97.7
c
2013
90.2
74.3
c
105.2
c
2014
84.1
67.8
c
100.1
c
1 case = 360 eggs
Note: Data cover all Class A eggs passed over a grader, including seconds.
Prices include bonus payments from 2012.
From Q1 2006 the average UK “All” types price includes organic eggs.
c = confidential
Source: Defra
11
Figure 4.1 Average poultry compound feed price, GB
£/tonne
350
298
300
250
270
271
270
280
264
235
223
200
150
100
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014 Q1
2014 Q2
2014 Q3
2014 Q4
Source: Defra
Figure 4.2 UK wholesale chicken prices
p/kg
400
350
320
300
250
200
155
140
150
100
50
Jan 10
Fresh broiler - 1.35kg - 1.55kg
Fresh skinless breast fillets (callibrated)
Jul 10
Jan 11
Jul 11
Jan 12
Jul 12
Fresh skinless breast fillets
Frozen broiler - 1.15kg - 2.05kg
Jan 13
Jul 13
Jan 14
Jul 14
Jan 15
Note: DEFRA has made some changes to the price series compared with last year’s edition of
this pocketbook.
Source: Defra/London wholesale market
12
Figure 4.3 UK wholesale hens’ egg prices
p/dozen
140
128
120
118
100
80
60
Large 63 - 73 g
40
20
Jan 10
Medium 53 - 63 g
Jul 10
Jan 11
Jul 11
Jan 12
Jul 12
Jan 13
Jul 13
Jan 14
Jul 14
Jan 15
Source: Defra/London wholesale market
Figure 4.4 EU and UK broiler (65%) meat wholesale market price
p/kg dw
170
160
150
140
EU
142
UK
134
130
120
110
100
90
80
Jan 10
UK is frozen bird price, EU is mixture of fresh and frozen
Jul 10
Jan 11
Jul 11
Jan 12
Jul 12
Jan 13
Jul 13
Jan 14
Jul 14
Jan 15
13
Figure 4.5 EU and UK egg (large and medium) wholesale market price
p/kg
180
160
140
UK
EU
120
108
102
100
80
60
Jan 10
Jul 10
Jan 11
14
Jul 11
Jan 12
Jul 12
Jan 13
Jul 13
Jan 14
Jul 14
Jan 15
Imports and exports
Chapter 5 – Imports and exports
Table 5.1 UK egg trade by volume
'000 cases
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014 (e)
Shell eggs (a)
1,548
1,395
2,281
1,718
1,857
Egg products
(a) (b)
2,987
2,815
3,157
3,382
3,326
Total
4,535
4,210
5,438
5,099
5,183
Imports
Exports
Shell eggs (a)
165
221
269
280
242
Egg products
(a) (b)
127
137
363
504
135
Total
291
358
632
784
377
1 case = 360 eggs
(a) Data based on the following Standard Industrial Trade Classifications (SITCs): 025.21, 025.22
and 025.30.
(b) From 2012, shell eggs SITC code changed from 04070030 to 040721000, 040729100 and
040790100.
All data converted to shell egg equivalent.
(e) estimate.
Note: 1 case = 360 eggs
Source: Defra
15
Imports and exports
Table 5.2 Volume and value of UK poultry meat imports
tonnes, product weight
Fresh/frozen poultry (inc offals)
2010
378,926
Salted poultry
2011
412,368
2012
382,067
2013
383,812
2014
407,688
36,111
47,508
43,439
49,610
56,098
Processed poultry
254,079
278,732
292,288
291,197
305,889
Total
Value, £'000
669,116
738,608
717,794
724,619
769,675
945,617 1,078,530
936,144
956,793
1,020,550
Salted poultry
Processed poultry
72,630
684,074
85,009
802,476
103,090
848,425
113,318
888,694
1,702,321 1,978,780 1,823,629 1,908,308
2,022,562
Total
102,571
797,679
Source: GTIS, HM Revenue and Customs
Table 5.3 Volume and value of UK poultry meat exports
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
270,450
295,241
289,787
342,161
347,676
Salted poultry
5,145
3,971
2,929
2,433
3,411
38,341
45,511
45,850
42,586
48,517
313,936
344,723
338,566
387,180
399,604
Salted poultry
Processed poultry
260,864
9,356
126,382
306,725
9,623
143,602
273,987
6,646
137,584
329,627
5,466
126,483
295,543
8,592
135,489
Total
396,602
459,950
418,217
461,577
439,624
Processed poultry
Total
Value, £’000
16
Imports and exports
Table 5.4 UK fresh/frozen poultry meat imports by source
Total
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
378,926
412,368
382,067
383,812
407,688
of which from:
144,066
169,462
180,940
178,619
178,355
Poland
Netherlands
39,531
43,497
46,817
51,874
55,873
Ireland
63,956
66,799
28,694
25,456
35,154
Belgium
23,703
20,644
28,008
25,887
30,786
Germany
25,304
31,272
25,979
26,331
30,133
France
20,125
20,276
14,877
13,224
13,475
9,182
9,709
14,679
12,449
10,583
Chile
9,887
9,877
8,792
8,048
8,392
Denmark
8,577
7,593
5,489
5,476
7,585
Italy
Table 5.5 UK fresh/frozen poultry meat exports by destination
Total
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
270,450
295,241
289,787
342,161
347,676
of which to:
(EU 28)
(203,784)
(197,773)
(203,352)
(249,115)
(241,237)
Netherlands
59,588
52,799
66,378
100,521
107,917
Ireland
44,165
46,048
48,786
46,437
45,873
7,810
24,722
26,602
38,341
43,013
Hong Kong
26,236
40,215
25,449
20,876
25,811
Germany
34,669
26,212
15,882
19,339
22,701
France
21,824
23,986
18,657
21,073
18,534
Benin
10,912
7,721
5,150
10,036
17,278
Spain
14,123
15,555
17,029
16,020
12,454
3,195
5,917
8,862
14,822
11,569
South Africa
Belgium
17
Imports and exports
Table 5.6 UK processed poultry meat imports by source
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
254,079
278,732
292,288
291,197
305,889
(EU 28)
(90,830)
(111,180)
(128,400)
(134,143)
(132,490)
Thailand
134,894
138,900
134,479
116,651
124,650
20,414
19,939
21,456
29,008
40,414
Netherlands
19,279
28,164
33,467
31,370
32,311
Ireland
23,668
27,674
28,539
33,300
29,969
Total
of which from:
Brazil
Poland
Germany
6,897
10,490
11,989
14,633
16,474
14,084
13,092
15,607
14,665
14,324
France
4,164
4,817
9,013
11,411
11,375
Denmark
3,667
9,266
7,983
8,518
8,855
Table 5.7 UK processed poultry meat exports by destination
Total
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
38,341
45,511
45,850
42,586
48,517
of which to:
Ireland
24,011
27,602
25,598
22,159
22,124
Netherlands
3,987
5,912
6,543
5,642
9,299
Germany
4,088
4,981
5,972
6,724
5,705
18
Consumption
Chapter 6 – Consumption
Table 6.1 UK per capita consumption of poultry meat and total meat
Poultry meat
All meat
kg/person/year
2000
30.5
79.2
2005
31.9
83.6
2006
31.4
83.5
2007
30.1
83.3
2008
29.6
80.5
2009
30.1
78.5
2010
32.1
80.1
2011
33.0
80.7
2012
32.8
79.7
2013
32.8
78.6
2014
33.1
79.9
All data in carcase weight equivalent.
Source: AHDB Market Intelligence calculations based on data from Defra, HMRC, ONS
Table 6.2 GB retail chicken and egg value sales by type of outlet
%
Multiples
Freezer centres
Butchers
Other
2012
89.3
4.8
3.2
2.6
2013
88.3
5.3
3.5
3.0
2014
87.9
5.0
4.0
3.1
7.3
Chicken
Eggs
2012
86.1
4.9
1.7
2013
86.8
4.7
1.6
7.0
2014
86.8
5.3
1.4
6.4
Data covers 52 weeks ended early January of the following year.
Source: Kantar WorldPanel
19
Consumption
Figure 6.1 Trends in GB household chicken purchases by volume
tonnes (52 weeks ending)
615,000
2012
2013
2014
610,000
605,000
600,000
595,000
590,000
585,000
580,000
575,000
570,000
02 Feb 02 Mar 30 Mar 27 Apr 25 May 22 Jun 20 Jul 17 Aug 14 Sep 12 Oct 09 Nov 07 Dec 04 Jan
Note: Figures include ‘Ready to cook’ and ‘Chilled main meal accompaniment’ products.
Figure 6.2 Trends in GB household egg purchases by volume
'000s (52 weeks ending)
5,400,000
2012
2013
2014
5,300,000
5,200,000
5,100,000
5,000,000
4,900,000
4,800,000
02 Feb 02 Mar 30 Mar 27 Apr 25 May 22 Jun 20 Jul 17 Aug 14 Sep 12 Oct 09 Nov 07 Dec 04 Jan
20
Consumption
Figure 6.3 Change in GB retail volume and value sales of chicken by
product, 2014
yoy % change
30
Volume
24.6
Value
18.7
20
10
1.6
0.5
0
-1.2
-0.9 0.0
-10
-2.9
-5.1
-3.0
-8.4 -9.5
-2.1
-5.8
-9.0 -10.2
-20
-30
-23.9
Fresh
breasts
Fresh
whole
Fresh leg
Fresh
roll/roast
Frozen
breasts
-22.0
Frozen Frozen Leg Frozen
whole
roll/roast
Sliced
cooked
chicken
Figure 6.4 GB volume sales of chicken by product, 2014
tonnes
250,000
214,181
200,000
150,000
122,173
100,000
75,411
43,334
50,000
0
2,846
Fresh
breasts
Fresh
whole
Fresh leg
Fresh
roll/roast
Frozen
breasts
3,501
6,233
3,769
Frozen
whole
Frozen
Leg
Frozen
roll/roast
22,248
Sliced
cooked
chicken
21
Consumption
Figure 6.5 Change in GB retail volume and value sales of eggs, 2014
Volume
yoy % change
Value
16.8
18
12.5
14
10
5.9
6
2
-2
-0.5
-6
-10
-14
-8.0
-10.7
-18
-1.1
-17.2
Barn
Free range organic
Free range
non-organic
Non-free range
Figure 6.6 GB volume sales of eggs, 2014
'000 eggs
3,000,000
2,708,140
2,408,726
2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
158,068
0
Barn
61,168
Free range organic
Free range
non-organic
22
Non-free range
Consumption
Figure 6.7 Average GB retail price of chicken cuts, 2014
price per kg (£)
9
8
8.81
7.75
7.15
7
5.56
6
5
4
2.92
3
4.15
3.58
2.32
2
2.03
1
0
Fresh
breasts
Fresh
whole
Fresh
leg
Fresh
roll/roast
Frozen
breasts
Frozen
roll/roast
Frozen
whole
Frozen
leg
Sliced
cooked
chicken
Figure 6.8 Average GB retail price of eggs, 2014
price per egg (p)
40
37
35
30
25
20
20
15
13
11
10
5
0
Barn
Free range organic
Free range
non-organic
Non-free range
23
Consumption
Figure 6.9 Proportion of chicken products sold on promotion in GB
retail outlets
% of total volume
60
50
45.8
52 w/e 05 Jan 14
49.8
45.4
39.3
40
36.6
27.8
30
36.7
32.0
52 w/e 04 Jan 15
46.1
34.9
31.5
28.7
30.2
21.8 23.6
20
27.9
28.7
15.8
10
0
Fresh
breasts
Fresh
whole
Fresh leg
Fresh
roll/roast
Frozen
breasts
Frozen
roll/roast
Frozen
whole
Frozen leg
Sliced
cooked
chicken
Figure 6.10 Proportion of eggs sold on promotion in GB retail outlets
% of total volume
25
23.4
52 w/e 05 Jan 14
52 w/e 04 Jan 15
20
15.6
15
10
5.6
5
0
7.2
5.1
0.4
Barn
24
15.5
13.3
Free range organic
Free range non-organic
Non-free range

Poultry Pocketbook 2015 - Bpex

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