NADA Commercial Truck Guide Industry Update

Transcription

NADA Commercial Truck Guide
Industry Update
March 2014

Average retail sleeper pricing sets another
record

Severe weather likely behind unusual results in
many segments

Special Study: Effect of Emissions Mandates on
the Used Truck Market
Commercial Truck Guidelines | March 2014
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Commercial Truck Market Trends ............................................................................................... 2
Economic Data ............................................................................................................................. 11
ATD/NADA Official Commercial Truck Guide Value Trends ........................................................ 15
At NADA Used Car Guide ............................................................................................................. 16
COMMERCIAL TRUCK MARKET TRENDS
Summary
Increased numbers of newer trucks continue to enter the retail and wholesale channels,
providing buyers with better access to the low-mileage iron they demand. Severe
weather likely kept many buyers away from the auctions in January, resulting in
anomalous results in medium duty and sleeper segments. Used truck pricing could be
impacted by upcoming rounds of fuel economy mandates, as a special study explores.
Continued volatility in sales volume is expected to subside in the second quarter as
winter draws to a close.
Sleeper Tractors – Retail
January’s universal average set yet another record, coming in at $56,488. This is the
highest figure we’ve recorded since our current data analysis processes were
introduced in mid-2007. Low mileage was a factor - at
520,764 - but this figure was less than 1% lower than
other recent low months. Age was identical to
December, at 77 months.
Month-over-month, January was $2292 (or 4.1%)
higher on price and 7284 (or 1.4%) lower on mileage.
Year-over-year, January 2014 was $7770 (or 13.8%)
higher than January 2013 on price, and 21,840 (or
4.0%) lower on mileage. See the “Average Retail Price
and Mileage” graph for detail.
NADA Used Car Guide | 8400 Westpark Drive | McLean, VA 22102 | 800.544.6232 | nada.com/b2b
© 2014 NADA Used Car Guide
2
[ COMMERCIAL TRUCK MARKET TRENDS continued ]
The bulk of the retail sleeper market is represented by model years 2007-2011. 2007’s
remain popular as the last of the pre-DPF trucks, and units with attractive mileage will
continue to hold their value for as long as they remain available. The first of the DPF
trucks - 2008’s – have depreciated the most of recent model years, but even their
roughly $415 or 1%/month depreciation is low by historical standards. 2009’s have seen
essentially no depreciation over the past year. 2010’s – the first trucks to feature SCR hit a low point in May of 2013, then started to appreciate, and are currently selling for
the same prices they were last summer. 2011’s are the major factor in the retail market
at present, outselling other model years for the second month in a row. With average
mileage for 2011’s just below 400,000, demand remains strong, and supply is still
inadequate despite the increased volume. As for the
newest trucks, 2012’s continue to enter the market in
greater numbers, and are selling for more than their
2011 counterparts did this time last year. 2013’s are
Average Retail Price by Model Year - All Sleeper Tractors Under 1M Miles
Adjusted for Mileage
$100,000
$90,000
$80,000
still too rare to be a notable factor at present. See
$70,000
“Average Retail Price by Model Year” graph for detail.
$60,000
2007
2008
2009
$50,000
We see little change in these trends over the next two
2010
$40,000
2011
quarters. 2012’s could place very mild downward
$30,000
2012
pricing pressure on late-model trucks as they enter
the market in greater numbers, but it is also possible
$20,000
$10,000
Source: ATD/NADA
$0
demand will remain strong enough to absorb this
supply with no impact to pricing. The bottom line is
dealers can be confident in the value of their late-model inventory in the upcoming
months.
Sleeper Tractors – Wholesale
Auctions appear to have been impacted by January’s severe weather, with buyers
snapping up mainly the most desirable iron and leaving the rest in the cold. Trucks sold
through wholesale channels in January were much younger and lower-mileage than in
earlier months.
Specifically, the average sleeper tractor sold in January was 72 months old, had 623,844
miles, and brought $38,549. This average truck was a notable 11 months younger than
3
its December counterpart, and a whopping 28
Average Wholesale Price and Mileage: All Sleeper Tractors Under 1M Miles
months younger than January 2013. In terms of
$45,000
mileage, January’s average was 19,781 (or 3.1%)
$40,000
lower than December, and a substantial 91,502 (or
$35,000
12.8%) lower than January 2013. This much newer
and lower-mileage mix caused January’s pricing to
700000
650000
$30,000
$25,000
600000
$20,000
550000
come in $7771 (or 20.2%) higher than December’s,
$15,000
and $14,751 (or 38.3%) higher than January 2013. See
$10,000
“Average Wholesale Price and Mileage” graph for
750000
500000
Source: NADA and AuctionNet
2 per. Mov. Avg. (Mileage)
$0
detail.
450000
2 per. Mov. Avg. (Price)
$5,000
400000
January was the first month since February 2012 in
which less than half of trucks sold had over 600,000
miles. The wholesale market typically has an appetite
Average Wholesale Price and Number of Trucks Sold by Mileage Range
Sleeper Tractors, YTD2014
$80,000
50
for trucks with up to around 700,000 miles, but
$70,000
January was an exception. The main factor behind
$60,000
this shift was an unusually high proportion of trucks
$50,000
30
with 400-500,000 miles, largely of the 2011 model
$40,000
25
year (see “Average Wholesale Price and Number of
$30,000
20
Trucks Sold” graph for detail). Along with this low
Sources: ATD/NADA and AuctionNet
45
40
35
Count
15
$20,000
10
$10,000
5
$0
0
mileage was the aforementioned average age, which
Price
was actually 5 months younger than trucks sold retail
– an inversion the market hasn’t seen since February
2012. See the “Average Age (Months) of Sleeper
Average Age (Months) of Sleeper Tractors Sold Wholesale vs. Retail
Tractors Sold” graph for detail.
120
We view the auction channel as a good indicator of
100
what dealers forecast the retail channel demanding in
80
upcoming months. To this end, January’s results –
while extreme – reinforced the trend towards
60
decreased marketplace tolerance for trucks with over
40
600,000 miles. At the same time, once severe winter
20
weather subsides, we expect averages to return
closer to the recent trend.
Retail
Wholesale
0
4
Model vs. Model Competitive Comparison
The January time period is traditionally when we
Average Retail Selling Price of 4-Year-Old Sleeper Tractors
switch to the next-newer model year to represent
$90,000
four-year-old trucks. As such, we now consider model
$80,000
-year 2011 trucks four years old. The big story, then,
$70,000
is how much more money four-year-old trucks are
$60,000
$50,000
bringing now than they did at this time in 2013 and
$40,000
2012 (as well as earlier years not included in the
$30,000
graph). A very favorable supply/demand relationship
$20,000
for low-mileage trucks is the primary factor at work
$10,000
here. See the “Average Retail Price by Model Year”
Avg. for all Trucks
2 per. Mov. Avg. (VNL 730/780)
2 per. Mov. Avg. (386)
2 per. Mov. Avg. (Cascadia)
2 per. Mov. Avg. (T660/600)
Source: ATD/NADA
$0
graph for detail.
In terms of competitive positioning, there was
Average Retail Selling Price of 4-Year-Old Sleeper Tractors
essentially no change – all models brought solid
$90,000
pricing in January. The T2000 will no longer be
$80,000
included in future updates because the 2010 model
$70,000
year should have been the last for that model. We say
$60,000
$50,000
“should have been” because Kenworth did not build
$40,000
any SCR-equipped T2000’s, but we nonetheless
$30,000
2 per. Mov. Avg. (T2000)
received a small number of T2000 sales labeled as
$20,000
2 per. Mov. Avg. (387)
2011’s. As these sales did not include VINs with which
Avg. for all Trucks
2 per. Mov. Avg. (VNL 630/670)
$10,000
2 per. Mov. Avg. (ProStar)
Source: ATD/NADA
$0
to verify model year, we believe they were actually
2010’s. Next month, we will include the T700.
Medium Duty—Class 3-4 Cabovers
As mentioned, severe weather likely put a damper on auction activity in January. This
factor manifested itself in an unusually low number of Class 3-4 cabovers reported sold.
The few that sold had much higher than average mileage, resulting in lower average
pricing. We consider this month an outlier, and will refrain from assigning much
meaning to its results.
Nonetheless, here are the stats for January: Average wholesale price came in at $8450,
5
$3092 (or 26.8%) lower than December, and $6767
Average Wholesale Price and Mileage: 4-7 Year-Old Class 3-4 Cabovers
(or 44.5%) lower than January 2013. Mileage, at
$20,000
180,000
$18,000
160,000
$16,000
140,000
160,466, was 46,509 (or 29.0%) higher than
December, and 59,641 (or 37.2%) higher than January
$14,000
2013. See associated graph for detail.
$12,000
We expect a return to more typical figures as we exit
the 1st quarter.
Medium Duty—Class 4 Conventionals
Unlike cabovers and heavier GVW conventionals,
120,000
100,000
$10,000
80,000
$8,000
60,000
$6,000
40,000
$4,000
$2,000
2 per. Mov. Avg. (Price)
20,000
2 per. Mov. Avg. (Mileage)
$0
0
lighter GVW conventionals sold in normal numbers in
January. Class 4’s are more heavily exposed to the consumer/end-user market than their
heavier GVW counterparts, so it is possible that the superior performance of this
segment indicates stronger demand. Supporting this observation was a nice month-over
-month uptick in pricing.
Average Wholesale Price and Mileage: 4-7 Year-Old Class 4 Conventionals
Specifically, the average wholesale selling price of a 4-
$25,000
140000
7 year-old Class 4 conventional in January was
$15,618 - $2884 (or 18.5%) higher than December,
and $114 (or 0.7%) higher than January 2013.
120000
$20,000
100000
$15,000
80000
Average mileage, at 102,391, was 771 (or 0.8%)
higher than December, and 10,726 (or 10.5%) higher
than January 2013. See associated graph for detail.
40000
$5,000
2 per. Mov. Avg. (Class 4 Price)
There is still no shortage of supply of trucks with over
100,000 miles in this segment. In addition, end users
60000
$10,000
20000
2 per. Mov. Avg. (Class 4 Mileage)
$0
0
confident in their job or business outlook are largely
shopping for new trucks. At the same time, used trucks with mileage in the low-6 figures
still have plenty of remaining life, and are at an attractive price point. It is likely that
future performance of this segment will reflect the slow but steady growth of the
economy overall.
Medium Duty—Class 6 Conventionals
Like cabovers, heavier-GVW conventionals saw a steep decline in volume in January.
6
Unlike cabovers, trucks that did sell had lower-than-average mileage. This performance
is logical, as only the most desirable trucks would be expected to sell in a low-volume
month.
As with cabovers, we consider January’s result an
Average Wholesale Price and Mileage: 4-7 Year-Old Class 6 Conventionals
anomaly, so we do not read too much into the
$25,000
250000
$20,000
200000
$15,000
150000
$10,000
100000
results. With this in mind, the average 4-6 year-old
Class 6 conventional sold wholesale in January
brought $23,473, which is $5602 (or 23.9%) higher
than December, and $8591 (36.6%) higher than
January 2013. Mileage, at 123,022, was 39,015 (or
24.1%) lower than December, and 61,170 (or 33.2%)
$5,000
50000
2 per. Mov. Avg. (Class 6 Price)
lower than January 2013. See associated graph for
2 per. Mov. Avg. (Class 6 Mileage)
$0
0
detail.
Again, January’s results were not indicative of a
shifting market. Previous months suggest mildly higher demand for trucks with mileage
in the low to mid 100s, and we will stick with that observation for now.
Sales Volume
Unusual month-over-month swings in volume of
Average Number of Used Trucks Retailed per Rooftop
trucks retailed continued in January, heading back
8.0
down after December’s increase. Dealers sold 5.3
7.0
trucks per rooftop in January, down 1.0 trucks (or
6.0
15.9%) from December, and also down 1.0 trucks
5.0
from January 2013 (see “Average Number of Used
4.0
Trucks Retailed” graph for detail). Two of the major
3.0
factors likely contributing to volatility in late 2013 –
2.0
political budgetary dysfunction and uncertainty
1.0
regarding tax benefits – are no longer primary
0.0
Source: ATD/NADA
factors. However, severe weather is every bit the
factor it has been in recent months, and will continue to be into the 2nd quarter. As such,
we expect monthly swings in volume to continue into spring.
7
In the wholesale channel, January’s volume was
Total Wholesale Sales Reported to NADA
moderately better than December’s, but still well off
6000
the calendar-year 2013 average (see “Total
2010 Total: 42,320
2011 Total: 29,282
2012 Total: 34,275
2013 Total: 39,179
5000
Wholesale Sales Reported to NADA” graph for detail).
As in the retail channel, we place primary blame on
the weather, with similar improvements forecast as
4000
3000
we exit the 1st quarter.
2000
Special Study: How will Upcoming Emissions
1000
Mandates Impact the Used Truck Market?
Sources: ATD/NADA
and AuctionNet
0
By now you’re well aware of President Obama’s
announcement that he will direct the EPA and DOT to set the next (post-2018) round of
medium and heavy truck fuel economy and emissions standards. The first round of
standards was finalized in September 2011, and trucks meeting those standards are just
now going into production. This study examines the impact of 2002-2014 standards on
selling price, and provides a look at how the used truck market could perform post 2014.
If you regularly read Guidelines or subscribe to our used truck values, you know that
used Class 8 pricing is currently at historically-high levels. A major reason for this market
dynamic is the high price of new trucks. In 2002, truck buyers learned the phrase,
“emissions escalator.” An emissions escalator is simply a surcharge buyers pay for
engines that meet current standards. According to a recent NADA/ATD Report (available
free at http://www.nadafrontpage.com), the cumulative effect of the 2004-2010
emissions mandates on the price of a new truck was over $20,000. In other words, a
new truck sold in 2012 cost over $20,000 more than it did before the requirements were
in place (in real dollars). And pricing has increased further since the report was
published.
These price increases have pushed many buyers to late-model, low-mileage used trucks
as a substitute for new. At roughly $56,000, the average sleeper tractor with mileage in
the low-500,000s is about one-third the MSRP of a new truck. Granted, most buyers pay
substantially less than MSRP. But even at half the price of new, the difference is
compelling.
On the supply side, thanks to the Great Recession and the 2007 pre-buy, a historically
8
low number of new trucks were built for model years 2008-2011. This dynamic resulted
in a tight supply of iron entering the secondary market as trade-ins. With buyers looking
for late-model trucks to substitute for expensive new iron, pricing for low- to averagemileage trucks surpassed pre-recession levels in mid-2011, and has continued
accelerating through the present time. The current average retail price of roughly
$56,000 is 14% higher than the pre-recession peak in mid-2008. And this average truck
now has mileage in the low-500,000s, as opposed to the mid-400,000s of 2008. So
buyers are paying more for trucks with higher mileage.
Marketplace acceptance of new technologies will determine whether these conditions
continue. Historically, each new generation of emissions control technology has been
met with trepidation. The new truck pre-buy in 2002 advance of the introduction of
Exhaust Gas Recirculation (EGR) technology was a major market development, as was
the pre-buy of 2006 in advance of the introduction of Diesel Particulate Filters (DPF). On
the other hand, pre-buy activity was mild to nonexistent in advance of the most recent
Selective Catalytic Reduction (SCR) technology, due mainly to sluggish market
conditions, increased comfort level with this technology, and promised fuel mileage
improvements.
Pre-buys didn’t just artificially and temporarily increase demand for new trucks – they
also increased demand for late-model used trucks to use as a “bridge” until each new
technology had been on the market long enough to work out any bugs. Fortunately,
reliability concerns seem to have been largely alleviated with the SCR generation. Also,
thanks to much better advance notice of upcoming standards, truckmakers will have
more time to develop and test new technologies. These factors, combined with the
increased fuel economy of each upcoming step, suggest a pre-buy on the level of 2002
or 2006 is unlikely going forward.
On the supply side, thanks to the more typical build rate of 2012-2014 model year trucks
– along with a return to 3-5 year trade cycles - we expect a moderately increased
number of late-model trucks entering the secondary market in upcoming years.
However, this increased supply should be balanced by the likely ongoing increases in
new truck pricing, which will keep many buyers in the used market. For fleets and
successful operators who can afford it, a new truck will provide real fuel economy
9
benefits. For other buyers, late-model used trucks will remain a popular substitute,
helping to absorb any increased supply.
Conclusion
Expect continued volatility in volume along with anomalous results in pricing for the
remainder of the winter, due mainly to extreme weather conditions keeping buyers
home. The exception will be for sleeper tractors with under 600,000 miles, which will
remain a sure bet regardless of external factors. See the Economic Trends section of this
document for more detailed analysis of these factors.
Be sure to keep up with our Commercial Vehicle Blog at www.nada.com/b2b for realtime updates on market data.
10
[ ECONOMIC TRENDS ]
The U.S. government slashed its estimate for 2013 fourth-quarter growth as consumer
thought, leaving the economy on a more sustainable
path of modest expansion. GDP expanded at a 2.4%
annual rate, down sharply from the 3.2% pace
reported in January and the 4.1% logged in the third
quarter.
Americans boosted spending in January despite the
harsh winter weather, but activity was much weaker
Real Gross Domestic Product
Percent change from preceding period (%, SAAR)
Percent Change from Preceding Period
spending and exports were less robust than initially
in December than initially reported. The Commerce
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0
-2.0
-3.0
-4.0
-5.0
-6.0
-7.0
-8.0
-9.0
Department reported that spending rose 0.4% in
Quarter
January following an insignificant 0.1% gain in
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
December, which had initially been reported as a
Unemployment and Labor Participation Rates
stronger 0.4% increase. Income grew 0.3% in January
Seasonally Adjusted
following no increase at all in December. Consumer
Job creation ramped up somewhat in February,
posting a better-than-expected gain of 175,000,
66.0
9.0
8.0
65.0
7.0
6.0
64.0
5.0
63.0
4.0
3.0
62.0
2.0
despite expectations that weather would keep the
61.0
Jan-08
Mar-08
May-08
Jul-08
Sep-08
Nov-08
Jan-09
Mar-09
May-09
Jul-09
Sep-09
Nov-09
Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
1.0
count low. The unemployment rate edged higher to
6.7%, according to the latest report from the Bureau
67.0
10.0
Unemployment Rate (%)
economic activity.
Unemployment Rate
Labor Participation Rate (%)
spending is closely watched because it drives 70% of
Participation Rate
11.0
Month
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
of Labor Statistics. Employment growth had waned
over the past two months, and while an
Monthly Change in Nonfarm Payrolls
Seasonally Adjusted
improvement, February's number remains below
The poor employment situation has posed a
quandary for the Federal Reserve, which is unwinding
its monthly asset purchase program known as
quantitative easing but holding to its zero interest
rate policy for short-term rates. Though the U.S.
Jan-08
Mar-08
May-08
Jul-08
Sep-08
Nov-08
Jan-09
Mar-09
May-09
Jul-09
Sep-09
Nov-09
Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
which monthly job creation has averaged 189,000.
Prior-Month Change (thousands)
trend of where it had been for the past year, during
700.0
600.0
500.0
400.0
300.0
200.0
100.0
0.0
-100.0
-200.0
-300.0
-400.0
-500.0
-600.0
-700.0
-800.0
-900.0
(Continued on page 12)
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Month
11
[ ECONOMIC TRENDS continued ]
central bank has set a 6.5% target for the jobless number before it will consider raising
rates, it likely will have to reconsider and could do so as soon as its March meeting.
The declining rate has been a mix of middling job creation and labor force participation
that has languished around 35-year lows. At the same time, long-term unemployment
remains a major structural impediment, making the Fed's final decision on interest rates
likely more reliant on an arbitrary qualitative impression of economic health. The
number of people without jobs for 27 weeks or longer grew 203,000 to 3.8 million—a
group that now represents fully 37% of the unemployed.
Biggest job gains in February came from professional and business services, which added
79,000 positions. Temporary help grew by 24,000 while wholesale trade gained 15,000
jobs and bars and restaurants contributed 21,000 and construction also added 15,000.
Retail lost 4,000 jobs for the month
while government employment was little changed.
Total Housing Starts, Privately Owned
Seasonally Adjusted
1300.0
first sign of the impact of mass retail store closures
1100.0
across the country.
Existing-home sales, which are completed
transactions, fell in January to the lowest level in 18
Housing Starts (thousands)
However, electronics and appliances lost 12,000, the
900.0
700.0
500.0
300.0
lift prices in much of the United States, according to
100.0
Jan-08
Mar-08
May-08
Jul-08
Sep-08
Nov-08
Jan-09
Mar-09
May-09
Jul-09
Sep-09
Nov-09
Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
months, but ongoing inventory shortages continue to
the National Association of Realtors. Total existinghome sales dropped 5.1% to a seasonally adjusted
Month
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
annual rate of 4.62 million in January from 4.87
million in December; sales are also 5.1% below the
S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index
Three-month moving average published with a two-month lag.
4.87 million-unit pace in January 2013. Last month’s
190.0
180.0
level of activity was the slowest since July 2012, when
170.0
it stood at 4.59 million.
2013. Distressed homes – foreclosures and short
sales – accounted for 15% of January sales, compared
with 14% in December and 24% in January 2013.
150.0
140.0
130.0
120.0
110.0
100.0
Jan-08
Mar-08
May-08
Jul-08
Sep-08
Nov-08
Jan-09
Mar-09
May-09
Jul-09
Sep-09
Nov-09
Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
in January was $188,900, up 10.7% from January
Index Level
The median existing-home price for all housing types
160.0
Source: S&P Dow Jones
(Continued on page 13)Month
12
Total housing inventory at the end of January rose 2.2% to 1.90 million existing homes
available for sale, which represents a 4.9-month supply at the current sales pace, up
from 4.6 months in December. Unsold inventory is 7.3% above a year ago, when there
was a 4.4-month supply. A supply of 6 to 6.5 months represents a rough balance
between buyers and sellers.
According to Freddie Mac, the national average
Regular Grade Gasoline Prices (all formulations)
Average Price Per Gallon
$ YoY Change
$0.30
rate mortgage slipped to 4.43% in January from
$3.80
$0.20
4.46% in December; the rate was 3.41 % in January
$3.70
$0.10
$3.60
$0.00
$3.50
($0.10)
$3.40
($0.20)
$3.30
($0.30)
$3.20
($0.40)
$3.10
($0.50)
2013.
U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged over 15.2
million barrels per day during the week ending Feb.
28, 2014, 87 thousand barrels per day less than the
Average Price
$0.40
$3.90
Price Change
$4.00
commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-
previous week’s average. Refineries operated at
production increased last week, averaging over 9
million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production
decreased last week, averaging 4.6 million barrels per
day.
States reached 4.3 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in
December 2013, the first time exports exceeded 4 million
bbl/d in a single month. December exports cap a year of
steady growth and bring average exports for full-year 2013
On-Highway Diesel Fuel Prices
Average Price Per Gallon
$ YoY Change
$4.15
$0.20
$4.10
$0.15
$4.05
$0.10
$4.00
$0.05
$3.95
$0.00
$3.90
($0.05)
$3.85
($0.10)
$3.80
($0.15)
$3.75
($0.20)
$3.70
($0.25)
to 3.5 million bbl/d, 350,000 bbl/d (11%) higher than in
2012. The increase in exports was broad-based, affecting
multiple products.
Month
Source: U.S. Energy Information
Admi nistration
The U.S. average retail price of regular gasoline increased 4 cents to $3.48 per gallon as
of March 3, 2014, 28 cents lower than last year at this time. The national average diesel
fuel price was down less than a penny to remain at $4.02 per gallon, 11 cents lower than
last year at this time.
Considering the slower pace in the start of the year, a modest slowdown in the first
13
Price Change
Gross exports of petroleum products from the United
Month
Source: U.S. Energy Information
Admi nistration
Average Price
87.4% of their capacity last week. Gasoline
quarter of 2014 is likely in any case, with growth accelerating as the year unwinds.
What’s more, there’s a decent chance of an upside surprise. Consumer spending and
confidence is still way below what would be considered normal levels by the standards
of past economic expansions. As job growth returns and consumers feel more secure, a
virtuous cycle of spending begetting more consumer income begetting more spending
could be initiated. If this occurs, quarterly growth is likely to exceed an annualized pace
of 3%. If that doesn’t pan out in 2014, it is very likely to happen before the end of 2015.
14
[ ATD/NADA OFFICIAL COMMERCIAL TRUCK GUIDE® TRENDS ]
Monthly Change in ATD/NADA Commercial Truck Guide Value
February 2014 v. March 2014
NADA Segment
2008MY
2009MY
2010MY
2011MY
2012MY*
Commercial Van
0.0%
0.0%
-6.3%
-7.5%
-6.0%
Extended Hood
-1.5%
-3.7%
-9.0%
-6.8%
-7.1%
Highway Aerodynamic
-3.1%
-2.9%
-9.9%
-8.3%
-7.0%
Highway Traditional
-3.3%
-2.8%
-8.8%
-7.7%
-6.8%
Local/Delivery Daycab
-3.8%
-3.2%
-9.3%
-7.5%
-7.0%
Medium Duty Cabover
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
-5.5%
-4.5%
Medium Duty Conventional
0.0%
0.0%
-1.1%
-4.9%
-4.4%
Vocational/Construction
-3.6%
-3.4%
-2.8%
-2.4%
-2.3%
*Value movement can be influenced by newly valued vehicles.
Annual Change in ATD/NADA Commercial Truck Guide Value
February, 2013 v. 2014
NADA Segment
Commercial Van
Extended Hood
Highway Aerodynamic
Highway Traditional
Medium Duty Cabover
5YR
-12.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-3.1%
-6.4%
-22.0%
-14.7%
0.7%
4YR
1.7%
-0.3%
-8.9%
-0.6%
-6.1%
8.8%
-12.1%
16.4%
3YR
-18.3%
2.3%
-6.0%
1.0%
1.5%
-6.7%
-17.4%
N/A
2YR
-9.9%
-6.3%
-2.7%
-3.3%
-5.9%
N/A
-15.7%
N/A
YoY
Segment
Change
-9.9%
-5.1%
-5.2%
0.6%
-6.2%
-7.0%
-14.9%
22.3%
*Calculations are based on vehicle age, i.e. values for 1 year old vehicles in CY2014 are compared against
values for 1 year old vehicles in CY2013.
YTD Change in ATD/NADA Commercial Truck Guide Value
NADA Segment
2007MY
2008MY
2009MY
2010MY
2011MY*
YTD Segment
Change
Commercial Van
0.0%
0.0%
-6.4%
-7.6%
-6.2%
-4.7%
Extended Hood
-1.5%
-3.7%
-9.0%
-6.8%
-7.1%
-5.7%
Highway Aerodynamic
-3.0%
-2.7%
-9.7%
-7.5%
-6.4%
-5.8%
Highway Traditional
-3.3%
-2.8%
-8.8%
-7.7%
-6.8%
-5.9%
-5.8%
-5.4%
-9.3%
-7.3%
-6.5%
-6.7%
Medium Duty Cabover
-4.7%
-5.0%
-4.2%
-12.5%
-7.3%
-5.0%
-0.2%
0.0%
-0.9%
-9.4%
-6.9%
-2.9%
-3.6%
-3.4%
-2.8%
-2.4%
-2.3%
-3.0%
15
AT NADA USED CAR GUIDE
What’s New
NADA Online delivers values from 10 different NADA guidebooks including commercial trucks. Starting at $385 per
year, NADA Online is comprehensive, easy to use and includes mobile web access free with your subscription. And
since it’s web-based, there is no software to install and your whole staff can use it at the same time without the need
for additional user licenses. NADA Online provides NADA Retail, Loan and Wholesale values for truck and trailers
dating back to the 2000 model year. If you’re looking for a small number of commercial vehicle values, the Official
Commercial Truck Guide Online Mini-Pack provides three values online for $40.
On the Road
Senior Analyst and Product Manager Chris Visser will be attending and speaking at Bear Marketing Group’s Advanced
Used Truck Appraisal workshop in Nashville, Tennessee from April 22 – 23, 2014. During the interactive training course,
Chris will provide used vehicle market data and appraisal tips.
Stay up to date with the latest in the commercial truck industry by stopping by NADA’s Commercial Truck Blog and our
Market Overviews video section of the website. Updated twice per week by Chris, the blog provides real-time analysis
of incoming sales data from the industry’s leading used truck sales database. NADA produces a monthly market
overview video to provide further insight into the commercial truck market.
About NADA Used Car Guide
Since 1933, NADA Used Car Guide has earned its reputation as the leading provider of vehicle
valuation products, services and information to businesses throughout the United States and
worldwide. NADA’s editorial team collects and analyzes over one million combined
automotive and truck wholesale and retail transactions per month. Its guidebooks, auction
data, analysis and data solutions offer automotive/truck, finance, insurance and government
professionals the timely information and reliable solutions they need to make better business
decisions. Visit nada.com/b2b to learn more.
Senior Analyst and
Product Manager
Chris Visser
800.248.6232 x4731
[email protected]
Credit Unions, Fleet, Lease, Rental
Industry, Government
Doug Ott
800.248.6232 x4710
[email protected]
Automotive Dealers,
Auctions, Insurance
Dan Ruddy
800.248.6232 x4707
[email protected]
Business Development
Manager
Jim Gibson
800.248.6232 x7136
[email protected]
Financial Industry,
Accounting, Legal,
OEM Captive
Steve Stafford
800.248.6232 x7275
[email protected]
PR Manager
Allyson Toolan
800.248.6232 x7165
[email protected]
16
NADA CONSULTING SERVICES
NADA’s market intelligence team leverages a database of nearly 200 million transactions and more than
100 economic and market-related series to describe the factors driving current trends to help industry stakeholders
make more informed decisions. Analyzing data at both wholesale and retail levels, the team continuously provides
content that is both useful and usable to dealers, financial institutions, businesses and consumers.
Complemented by NADA’s analytics team, which maintains and advances NADA’s internal forecasting models and
develops customized forecasting solutions for clients, the market intelligence team is responsible for publishing white
papers, special reports and the Commercial Vehicle Blog. Throughout every piece of content, the team strives to go
beyond what is happening in the industry to confidently answer why it is happening and how it will impact the market
in the future.
Senior Director, Vehicle Analysis & Analytics
Jonathan Banks
800.248.6232 x4709
[email protected]
Senior Analyst and Product Manager
Chris Visser
800.248.6232 x4731
[email protected]
ADDITIONAL RESOURCES
Guidelines
White Papers
Updated monthly with a robust data set
from various industry sources and
NADA’s own proprietary analytical tool,
Guidelines provides the insight needed
to make decisions in today’s market.
NADA’s white papers and special reports
aim to inform industry stakeholders on
current and expected used vehicle price
movement to better maximize today’s
opportunities and manage tomorrow’s risk.
NADA Perspective
Commercial Vehicle Blog
Leveraging data from various industry
sources and NADA’s analysts, NADA
Perspective takes a deep dive into a
range of industry trends to determine
why they are happening and what to
expect in the future.
Written and managed by Senior Analyst
Chris Visser, the Commercial Vehicle
Blog analyzes market data, lends insight
into industry trends and highlights
relevant events.
Connect with NADA
Read our Blog
Follow Us on Twitter
Find Us on Facebook
Watch Us on YouTube
nada.com/commercialtruck
@NADAUsedCarGde
Facebook.com/NADAUsedCarGuide
Youtube.com/NADAUsedCarGuide
Disclaimer: NADA Used Car Guide makes no representations about future performance or results based on the data and the contents available in this report (“Guidelines”). Guidelines is
provided for informational purposes only and is provided AS IS without warranty or guarantee of any kind. By accessing Guidelines via email or the NADA website, you agree not to reprint,
reproduce, or distribute Guidelines without the express written permission of NADA Used Car Guide.
17

NADA Commercial Truck Guide Industry Update

Transcription

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