developing a real-time, economic-based program for the web

Biomass Site Assessment Tool –
D
Developing
l i a real-time,
l ti
economici
based program for the web.
Andrew J. Hartsell, Research Forester – USFS
Timothy M.
M Young,
Young PhD – UT
Donald G. Hodges, PhD – UT
James H. Perdue – USFS
U.S. Forest Service
The University of Tennessee
S h Southern Research Station
h S i
DOT, Sun Grant Center
O S G
C
Forest Products Center
Outline
Introduction - Needs
 Objectives
 Methods
M th d
 Results
 Summary/Future Research

Introduction
To develop a webweb-based economic
decision--making model for cellulose
decision
resources
with realreal-time data capabilities
www.BioSAT.net
Introduction
Continued
 Allow for multiple feedstocks
 Must use the latest data
• Resource Information
• Travel Times
• Diesel Prices
 Allow users the ability to refine their search criteria
• Resource
R
Type
T
(softwood,
( f
d clean
l
chips,
hi mill
ill
residues)
•Travel distance
distance, time
time, tonnage,
tonnage or cost
•Infrastructure: Railroads, water, land, people
Introduction
Continued
BioSAT will investigate the supply of both
A i l
Agricultural
l and
dF
Forest Biomass
Bi
Objectives
j
1.
2.
3
3.
4.
5.
6
6.
Develop a Microsoft SQL database of resource data
(forest, mill residue, and agricultural feedstocks)
Develop resource costs for database (SRTS for south,
State--level Reporting for North)
State
Develop transportation cost model for database
Develop harvesting cost model for database (FRCS,
AHA)
Develop webweb-based economic decisiondecision-making tool
for cellulose using sites (www.BioSAT.net)
Real--time (or as available) updates of key input data,
Real
data
e.g., diesel prices, mill residue prices, FIA data, etc.
complete
Scope: 33 Eastern United States
Scope:
Resolution : ZCTA
near completion
initiated
Methods
Elementary data fusion
Update as
available
Update as
available
Real-time
update
SQL Biofuels Database
Real-time
update
SQL database
Methods
Aggregate Supply Curves
Aggregate Supply =
SQL Database
marginal cost of resource +
marginal
i l costt off harvesting
h
ti +
marginal cost of transportation,
given supply limit constraints.
Methods
Zipcode Tabulation Areas (ZCTAs)
 ZCTAs provide the basic spatial structure for BioSAT.
 ZCTAs are based on U.S. Census Bureau census blocks.
 Many transportation models use zipcodes for computing travel time.
 The smallest spatial unit for most resource data is the county. However,
counties do not provide the resolution needed for travel time analysis.
 Therefore, county level resource estimates are allocated to ZCTAs based
on area proportionality.
ti
lit
 Example, if a ZCTA accounts for ten percent of a counties area, then ten
percent of that county’s
p
y data is assigned
g
to that ZCTA.
Methods
Transportation / Trucking
Costs
Methods
Trucking Cost Model
Extension and Refinement of Berwak et. al. 2003
Total Cost (a, d, t) = Variable Cost (d, t) + Fixed Cost (a, d, t)
where,
a: annual miles
d ttravell distance
d:
di t
(miles)
( il )
t: travel time (hours)
Methods
Trucking Variable Costs
Variable Cost (d, t) = Fuel Cost (c, d, g, j, k) + Labor Cost (i, w) +
Tire Cost (c, m, n, r) + Maintenance and
Repair Cost (b, c, v)
 d: travel
d: travel distance (miles)
distance (miles)
 t: travel time (hours)
 b: base repair cost per mile
( )
 c: time loaded (%)
 g: average diesel price per gallon
 j: loaded truck miles per gallon
 k: empty truck miles per gallon
 i: labor time (hours)
i: labor time (hours)
 m: miles per tire
 n: number of tires
 r: tire cost
 w: wage  v: gross vehicle weight
Methods
Trucking Fixed Costs
Fi d C
Fixed
Cost ((a, d
d, t)) = (E
(Equipment
i
C
Cost + T
Tax + Li
License F
Fee +
Management and Overhead Cost +
Insurance Premium) / a * d
 Equipment Cost is function of interest rate, purchase price, salvage rate, and useful life;
useful life;
 Tax is function of highway use tax, purchase price, useful life, excise tax;
 License Fee is function of the number of tractors and trailers in fleet and a
annual license fee
annual license fee.
 a: annual miles
(
)
 d: travel distance (miles)
 t: travel time (hours)
Methods
Method for Finding Travel Time
 Currently all the zip codes with a sphere distance of no more
than 80 miles are defined as potential neighboring zip codes
off the
h given
i
zip
i code.
d
 For each ppotential neighboring
g
g zip
p code, the drivingg distance
and time to the given zip code is computed by Microsoft
MapPoint©.
 Among the potential zip codes, those with driving times of
no more than five hours are defined as the neighboring zip
codes of the ggiven zip
p code,, i.e.,, accounts for road network
geographic and economic barriers.
Methods
Resource & Harvesting
Methods
Cellulose Quantity
Resource
Beta
1a
Beta 1b
Ub W
Urban
Waste
t
BT2
BT2
Mill Residues
BT2
National FIA TPO Database
Other Removals
BT2
BT2
Logging Residues
BT2
SRTS / FRCS
Thinnings
BT2
BT2
Pulpwood / Sawtimber
Harvest Options
NA
FIA / AHA / TMS-State
Reports
Note, the analysis presented today is for Mill & Logging Residues only
Methods
Cellulose Quantity – continued
 Logging residues (tonnage) are derived by the Subregional
Timber Supply Model (SRTS) developed (Abt et al. 2000)
 Logging residue costs will come from the Fuel Reduction Cost
Simulator (FRCS) used in the Billion Ton study, modified by
Dykstra
y
((2008))
 Pulpwood & Sawtimber harvest options will be based on the
output from the Auburn Harvest Analyzer (AHA).
• Inputs will be stand tables developed from the FIA database
• Timber Mart-South (south) and state reports (north) will
provide the price information
R
Results
lt
Results
15 lowest cost ZCTAs for 80 mile travel distance
Summary
 www.BioSAT.net
www BioSAT net decision
decision--making tool for cellulose
using sites based on transportation costs and road
networks for 33 eastern states
 Forest resource (billion ton study, pulpwood, and
sawtimber) and mill residue database for 33 eastern
states
 Near Completion:
 Forest harvesting costs by zip code (FRCS & AHA)
 Forest resource costs (SRTS for south)
 Beta
Beta--version of
Future Research
 Resource costs for northern/eastern states in





development
p
Reallocation of resource data based on land
cover
Agricultural resource database in
development
Resource costs for
f agricultural
l
l resources in
development
Agricultural harvesting cost model in development
Railroad networks with intraintra-modal transfer points
Acknowledgements
g



•
USDA Forest Service Southern Research Station
US DOT Southeastern Sun Grant Center
University of Tennessee Office of Bioenergy Programs
U i
University
it off Tennessee
T
Agricultural
A i lt l Experiment
E p i
t Station
St ti
•
•
•
•
•
Xu (Nancy) Liu, GRA; Yingjin Wang, former GRA
Sam Jackson, Research Assistant Professor, UT
Kerri Norris, Research Associate, UT
Christy Pritchard, Research Associate, UT
Sachiko Hurst
Hurst, Programmer,
Programmer UT
• University of Tennessee College of Business
 North Carolina State University
Any Questions?