conventional and unconventional oil and gas

Vladimir Vysotsky, VNIIZARUBEZHGEOLOGIA (JSC)
CONVENTIONAL AND UNCONVENTIONAL OIL AND GAS:
RESOURCES AND INFLUENCE ON THE WORLD MARKET
Источник: et al, 2012
More than 500 oil and gas basins with a total area of 118 million sq km have been recognized. HC fields have been discovered
in 240 basins. The Northern hemisphere harbors 93% world oil and 94% world gas resources. Twelve major oil and gas
basins account for 70% world oil and 60% world gas resources. Deepwater basins (> 500 m) account for 6.4% world oil and
6.0% world gas resources.
1
World conventional and tight oil resources, billion tons
Conventional oil*
Remaining
reserves
Tight oil**
Cumulative
production
566
Remaining
reserves
Cumulative
production
47
Неоткрытые ресурсы
Undiscovered resources
Initial Reserves/ ultimate resources ratio – 64%
Cumulative production/ultimate resources ratio – 30%
Oil recovery factor – 30%
(* estimated by VZG as of 1.1.2013 )
Undiscovered resources
Initial Reserves/ ultimate resources ratio – 1.9%
Cumulative production/ultimate resources ratio - <1%
Oil recoveryy factor – 5%
(** estimated by IEA, 2013)
2
CONVENTIONAL AND TIGHT OIL POTENTIAL
(remaining reserves and undiscovered resources)
CONVENTIONAL OIL
(countries with conventional oil potential >
>55 billion tons)
tons)
TIGHT OIL
(countries with tight oil potential >
>1
1
billion tons)
tons)
billion tons
11
10 2
10,2
10
9
7,9
8
7
6
5
4,4
3,7
4
35
3,5
3
1,2
1,2
1,1
Pakistan
Canada
Indonesia
1,8
2
1
Thirteen countries account for 81% of world total oil potential
including 75% of its unexplored resources
(VNIIZarubezhgeologia
VNIIZarubezhgeologia,, 2013)
Venezuela
Libya
Argentina
China
US
Russia
0
Ten countries account for 78% of world oil
potential
(IEA, 2013)
3
2000--2012 US TIGHT OIL PRODUCTION HISTORY
2000
MMt/yr
100
(K2)
(D3-C1)
90
70
60
50
(P2)
Tight oil p
plays
80
2012 – 94.3 MMt
(29 5% off US ttotal
(29.5%
t l oil
il production)
d ti )
(P1)
(N1)
Shale Revolution-2
(D3)
(K2)
40
(P1)
30
(K2)
20
10
Projections: 2015 – 180 (45%), 2020 – 260 (59%), 2025 – 330 (69%), 2030 – 380 (72%)
Source: IEA, 03.2013
4
World conventional and shale gas resources, trillion m3
Conventional gas *
Cumulative
production
Undiscovered
resources
703
Remaining
reserves
Initial Reserves/ ultimate resources ratio, % - 46.8
Cumulative production/ultimate resources ratio, % - 17.6
Gas recovery factor – 80%
* Estimated by VNIIZarubezhgeologia,
VNIIZarubezhgeologia 2013
Shale gas **
Remainingg
reserves
Cumulative
production
207
Undiscovered resources
Initial Reserves/ ultimate resources ratio, % - 2.4
Cumulative production/ultimate resources ratio, % - 0.5
Gas recovery factor – 25%**
** Estimated by IEA
IEA, 2013
5
CONVENTIONAL AND SHALE GAS POTENTIAL
resources))
(remaining reserves and undiscovered resources
CONVENTIONAL GAS
(countries with conventional gas potential >10
>10 trillion m3
Ten countries account for 62.
62.5% of world total gas potential,
Including 72.
72.2% of its unexplored resources
(VNIIZarubezhgeologia
VNIIZarubezhgeologia,, 2013
2013))
SHALE GAS
(countries with shale gas potential >5
>5
3
trillion m )
Ten countries account for 79.
79.1% of world total
shale gas potential
(IEA, 2013)
6
2000-2012 US SHALE GAS PRODUCTION HISTORY
Bm3/yr
290
240
190
Shale gas plays
2012 production – 250 billion m3
(37% of US total saleable gas production)
(D3-C1)
(K2)
(D2)
Other plays
(J3)
140
(D3)
(C3)
90
40
Marcellus
Shale Revolution -1
Haynesville
(C2)
(D3)
Barnett
Forecast: 2015 – 300 (43%); 2020 – 350 (46%); 2025 – 380 (46%); 2030 – 400 (45%)
Source: IEA, 03.2013
7
WORLD UNCONVENTIONAL (OTHER THAN TIGHT OIL AND
SHALE GAS) OIL AND GAS RESOURCES
OIL, billion tons
GAS, trillion cubic meters*
Heavy and Extra
Heavy Oil
Oil Sand
Coal-Bed
Methane
Gas in lowpermeability
reservoirs
(Tight Gas)
Oil shale***
* VNIGRI, 1989
** OGR, 6, 2012
*** Oil Shale
Sh l D
Deposits
i off the
h W
World,
ld 1988
* As reported by VNIIGAZ-GAZPROM, 2012, 2013
Gas Hydrates – 10 000 trillion m3 (VNIIGAZ – GAZPROM)
8
WORLD OIL PRODUCTION FORECAST
Production, mln.t
5400
Growth - 1,2%
5200
1,0%
5000
0,8%
Total Oil Production
(Conventional and Unconventional Oil)
4800
4600
Growth - 1,2%
43.7
4400
C
Conventional
ti
l Oil Production
P d ti
1,0%
43.4
4200
0,8%
43.1
4000
3800
2010
43.1
2015
2020
2025
2030
Cummulative production/ultimate resources ratio, %
Oil Production Growth: 1970-1990 p.a. – 1,9%; 1991-2010 p.a. – 1,4%
Scenarios: 2011-2030 p.a.: 0,8% (BP), 1,0% (EIA), 1,2% (LUKOIL)
9
OIL AND GAS FIELDS DISCOVERED IN 2012
Number of discoveries and field sizes
Largest oil and gas discoveries
Reserves
Countryy
Basin
name
Field name
Sea depth,
p ,
m
Oil
Oil,
MMt
Gas,
Gas
Bm3
Angola
Kwanza
Cameia
1675
205
42.0
Mozambique
Ruvuma
Golfinho
1027
-
524.0
Mozambique
Ruvuma
Coral
2260
-
226.0
Mozambique
Ruvuma
Atum
1000
-
184.
Mozambique
Ruvuma
Mamba NE
1848
-
1700
Mozambique
Ruvuma
Mamba NE-2
1994
-
184.0
Mozambique
Ruvuma
Mamba North
1690
-
142.0
Brazil
Santos
Carcara
2027
109.6
8.0
Brazil
Campos
Pão de Açúcar
2788
67.2
41.8
Tanzania
Ruvuma
Zafarani
2580
-
113.2
* Forty-nine fields with average field sizes of 1.5-2.5 MMtoe have been discovered in Russia
(according to N.Miletenko, 2013)
10
North American Tight Oil Plays
*
DD
C
K2
*
*
*
*
N1
Spraberry
P1
*
*
K2
* Main
M i Production
P d ti
Tight Oil Plays
Source: EIA, 2012
11
O I L
US OIL AND GAS PRODUCTION FORECAST
Variable
2012
2015
2020
2025
2030
Total production, MMt
395
400
440
480
525
of that, tight oil
94
180
260
330
380
Net imports, MMt
421
350
280
210
130
Consumption, MMt
794
750
720
690
655
tight oil % in total production
23.8
45
59.1
68.75
72.4
tight oil % in consumption
11.8
24
36.1
47.8
58
2012 net imports – 421 MMt (9.9% of world total production).
Chief suppliers – Canada (117 MMt), Saudi Arabia (69 MMt),
Venezuela (45 MMt), Mexico (49 MMt).
After 2025 – imports from Canada only (2030 – 130 MMt).
Decrease in imports from 2012 to 2030 – 291 MMt
G A S
Variable
2012
2015
2020
2025
2030
681
695
755
820
890
of that, Shale gas
250
300
350
380
400
Net imports, billion m3
43
30
0
0
35
75
Marketable production, billion
m3
Net exports, billion m3
of that, shale gas
Consumption, billion m3
724
725
755
785
815
Shale gas % in total production
36.71
43.17
46.36
46.34
44.94
Shale gas % in consumption
34.53
41.38
46.36
48.41
49.08
2012 net imports
p
– 43 billion m3.
Chief supplier – Canada (net exports - 41 billion m3).
By 2020 – the country becomes a net exporter.
By 2025 – export potential is 35 billion m3,
By 2030 – 75 billion m3.
12
CANADA. BASINS AND FIELDS
13
FORECAST OF OIL PRODUCTION IN CANADA AND VENEZUELA
CANADA
Variable
2012
2015
2020
2025
2030
Total production, MMt
183
171
230
275
305
of that, from oil sands
85
115
160
210
250
Consumption, MMt
107
101
120
140
160
Net oil exports, MMt
62
70
110
135
145
46.5
67.25
69.57
76.36
81.97
Oil from oil sands production as a
percentage of total oil production, %
Total 2012 oil production was 183 MMt, of that 85 MMt from oil sands; 2030 oil
production forecast is 305 MMt and 250 MMt, respectively.
Net exports during 2020-2030 are estimated at 110-145 MMt/yr.
VENEZUELA
Variable
2012
2015
2020
2025
2030
Total production, MMt
161
180
310
320
330
of that, extra heavy oil
30
130
160
180
200
p
, MMt
Consumption,
40
50
52
60
70
Net oil exports, MMt
86
130
258
260
260
18.63
72.2
51.6
56.25
60.6
Extra heavy oil production as a
percentage of total oil production, %
Total 2012 oil production was 161 MMt including 30 MMt extra heavy oil; 2030
oil production forecast is 330 MMt and 200 MMt, respectively.
Net exports during 2020-2030 are estimated at 260 MMt/yr
14
VENEZUELA. ORINOCO BASIN
Resources – 81.6 bln.t
Reserves – 33.9 bln.t
Production:
2012 – 30 mln.t
2030 – 200 mln.t
mln t
15
BRAZIL. BASINS AND FIELDS
BRAZIL
Resources – 9830 mln.t
Reserves – 2210 mln.t
Production, mln.t:
2012 – 139 (Export 13.4)
2020 – 210
2030 – 300
ESPIRITO
SANTO BASIN
CAMPOS BASIN
SANTOS BASIN
16
STRUCTURE OF ATLANTIC MARGINS OF SOUTH AMERICA AND AFRICA
BRASIL. Santos Basin
ANGOLA. Kwanza Basin
A t l a n t i c
Basementt
B
(continent/ocean)
Rift sandyd
argillaceous Sediments
O c e a n
Oil andd Gas
G
Source Rocks
C b t
Carbonate
Rocks
Organic
O
i and
d
Carbonate Structures
S lt Rocks
Salt
R k
17
ANGOLA. OIL FIELDS AND LICENCE BLOCKS
Cameia Oil
Field (2012)
Reserves – 205 mln.t
18
IRAQ. DENSITIES OF HYDROCARBON RESOURCES MAP
MAIN OIL FIELDS
Name
Estimated
Peak
Production
mln.t
Principal
Companies
1
West
Qurna
203
Lukoil
2
North
Rumaila
Map
№
BP
140
3
Rumaila
PetroChina
4
Magnoon
89
Shell
5
Zubair
50
ENI
6
Halfaya
26
CNPC
Resources – 33,5 bln.t
Reserves – 20,1 bln.t
Production,, mln.t
2012 – 152,4 (export – 120)
2020 – 475
2030 - 500
19
EAST AFRICA. BASINS AND FIELDS
UGANDA
Resources – 2.0 bln.t
Reserves – 490 mln.t
Production:
2017 year - 10 mln
mln.tt
MOZAMBIQUE
Resources – 4.2-5.2 trl.m3
Reserves – 127 bln.m3
Export LNG:
2020 year-20 mln.t
TANZANIA
Resources – 2.0 trl.m3
Reserves – 34 bln.m3
Export LNG:
2018 year - 6.6 mln.t
20
LEVANT
BASIN
Resources: Gas - 3450 bln. m3
Oil – 230 mln. t
21
TURKMENISTAN. AMU DARYA BASIN
Minara
Yashlar
Eloten Osman South
Galkynysh gas field
(Reserves 21-26 trln. m3)
22
CONCLUSIONS
Hydrocarbon production from unconventional sources in volumes sufficient for the essential redistribution of world export–import
flows is only possible in countries with extremely large unconventional hydrocarbon resources and with, mature oil and gas
sector (large rig fleet) and favorable natural conditions (large freshwater resources).
These requirements are met in the US, China, and Russia.
US (shale gas resources – 18.8 trillion m3, tight oil resources – 7.9 billion tons; rig fleet – >1800 rigs.)
Gas production growth rate suggests that domestic consumption will be satisfied and gas exports may start by 2020. Export potential
is estimated at 35 billion m3 by 2025 and 75 billion m3, by 2030.
2030
Tight oil production will grow up to 380 MMt by 2030 and provide a possibility to reduce oil imports from 421 MMt in 2012 to 130
MMt in 2030. Oil can be supplied from Canada, whose export potential by 2030 is estimated at 145 MMt.
China (shale gas resources – 26-31 trillion m3, tight oil resources – 4.4 billion tons, rig fleet – 1500 rigs.)
N ti l shale
National
h l gas resource development
d l
t program envisages
i
shale
h l gas production
d ti att 80 billion
billi m3 (23% off th
the country’s
t ’ total
t t l gas
3
production) in 2020 and 150 billion m (27.3%), in 2030. Based on field development scenarios prepared by international
agencies and ВР, 2030 shale gas production in China is estimated at 60-90 billion m3. In all probability, the country’s
import requirements by 2030 will be ranging from 100–200 billion m3.
Russia (shale gas resources – 8.0-9.5
8 0 9 5 trillion m3,
tight oil resources – 10.2 billion tons, rig fleet – about 800 rigs.)
Shale gas production is not planned because of the high conventional gas reserves to production ratio. Tight oil production from the
Bazhenovskaya Formation is anticipated at 15–20 MMt by 2020 and 70 MMt, by 2030. Total oil production in 2030 is
anticipated at 540-550 MMt (ВР Forecast, 2013.)
Venezuela is likely to become world’s largest oil exporter mostly due to the development of extra heavy oil resources and supply
about 260 MMt /yr oil to the market starting from 2020. By then, a significant increase in conventional oil production and
exports, accordingly, is anticipated from Brazil and Iraq and conventional gas production and exports from Australia,
Qatar and new participants (Mozambique, Tanzania). Excessive hydrocarbon supplies are highly probable on the
p
and,, especially,
p
y, Asia–Pacific markets.
European
Increased competition may reduce oil and, especially, gas prices. In all probability, oil prices may drop down to US$90/bbl, and spot
gas prices, down to US$300/1000 m3. At the same time, oil prices are hardly likely to drop down below US$80/bbl, because
many nonconventional oil production projects will become uneconomic in this case.
23